467 thoughts on “IT’S TIME FOR THE GOLD:OIL RATIO TO NORMALIZE

  1. Steffmeister

    I have a small position in XLE …

    FOMC today πŸ™‚ exiting, a fake pop in precious today, then a continued correction?

    We are getting closer to THE BUY moment in precious! I have 21 miners on my shopping list.

    1. Steffmeister

      Oh I should’ve watched the movie, yes the dollar looks nice in an EW perspective, the corrective a-b-c wave structure is finished, XLE however looks butt-ugly, wave C is only in the beginning of it’s downtrend!?

  2. zkotpen

    Gary,

    The “normal” gold:oil ratio is ~19 bbls per ounce in your terms: Decade

    Bringing it in closer to the present, that “normal” could be anywhere between about 25 and 28.

    Gotta love the math!

  3. Gary Post author

    This is one of the hardest things for amateur traders to learn. Once a strong trend is in place their brain locks into the trend and they become convinced the trend will be infinite.

    At the December bottom almost everyone became convinced that gold could only go down.

    Now after a 5 month rally everyone is convinced that gold can only go up.

    At the December top everyone became convinced that the dollar could only go up. Now they are convinced that the dollar can only go down.

    5 months ago everyone was certain that energy stocks would only go higher. Now they a just as certain that energy can only go lower.

    Every day that the market doesn’t do what people want it to do they jump to the conclusion that cycles don’t work. Of course that’s absurd. They have to work because human nature doesn’t change. What they are really saying is that cycles aren’t working fast enough for their instant gratification personality, but I assure you cycles are one of the most dependable tools available to traders. They are in the same category as regression to the mean, and actually they are basically one and the same.

    The trend in the dollar isn’t infinite. There is going to be a rally. The trend in gold isn’t infinite. There is going to be a correction. Even the trend in the stock market with its PPT protection isn’t infinite. There will be a correction here as well.

  4. Ralph Wiederzane

    Uh oh, GDX wants to open well abive the 200 day MA. SMT subs are going to be paying higher prices when they finally decide to get involved, that is if tbey aren’t shorting miners.

    And soon the 50 ma crosses above to 200 ma again. While not always a sigb if ling term trend change, my experience is it pays to listen, especially when the last signal, the bearish crossover, was a failure. That is the case today.

  5. Gary Post author

    And here we have a classic example of someone who can’t envision a trend change. Because the dollar won’t turn fast enough for him he assumes it will never turn.

    It will though and when it does gold will drop down into an intermediate degree correction.

    1. Dday

      All very well and good ,but gold could rise to $1380 first before turning. Its not about predicting trend changes its about being at least relatively close…Negative data across the board bad for the dollar, this before the interest rate rise..

      1. Gary Post author

        1306 is the major resistance level. That’s where I originally thought the rally would reach before turning back down but then it double topped below 1300. Maybe Alex will be right and gold will pop above 1300 before topping.

    2. jake

      They’re front running the market already
      Expecting a repeat of the last hike, might pay off to go against the crowd rather than chase the market.

    3. Ralph Wiederzane

      I totally ignore the dollar index, always have since nobody can prove it gives an edge. All they can say is its inversely related to gold, usually. That isnt enough to trade on, imo. Call for a trend change in the buck all you want.

  6. Ralph Wiederzane

    This definitely aint “just like” Gary said, and on what should be a nothing day ahead of the Fed decision. Don’t ignore the price action!

  7. primetime

    Casabrujas,

    Why when some get it right they are the greatest but when others get it right they are trolls? Typical liberal. Always resort to name calling and labeling.

    1. cazabrujas

      Because, Gary has explained time and time again that the way down doesn’t go straight, there will be wrinkles along the way and every time wrinkles show up, people who have a very short term vision show up start bashing, which is annoying because they clearly have not read the plan laid out. Also, I am pretty sure that name calling is not the exclusive province of liberals.

  8. Robert

    No intermediate cycle low is coming again. Its going to be mild. This has been just too bullish a move by gold and miners lets forget about any serious correction now. Its been about a month now and still no sort of decent correction in miners

  9. Gary Post author

    I’ve been calling attention to this for weeks but it bears repeating again today. The dollar just made another lower low yet gold hasn’t made a higher high and miners are miles away from their February high.

    1. Robert

      Gary it doesn’t matter. DUST and JDST are getting crushed. How long do we have to wait then another month? Makes no sense. The right trade was NUGT and JNUG

      1. Gary Post author

        You have to be kidding?

        The miners have been stuck in a range for the last month. No one has made any money. Neither longs or shorts.

    2. Bluebellkid

      There are a handful of miners doing well. I have pointed out IAG as one of them and it is within a hair of the high set last August where the miners topped out and you were calling a DCL. ALO is another one that looks good. These miners that are exhibiting bullish price/volume action will most probably be the leaders if this move turns out to have legs.

      1. Gary Post author

        There is no doubt in my mind that the second half of the year we’ll see a big rally in the metals, but we need to complete a true ICL first. That means at least one failed daily cycle and it should correspond with an intermediate degree rally in the dollar.

        The most likely trigger would seem to be the rate hike later this afternoon to kick off the rally.

  10. Steffmeister

    Daneric is a clever EW artist, how about this scenario being played out the coming year and a Β½ ?

    https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-oJh8LVPXmvg/WTH3jGouk9I/AAAAAAAAdjA/pmSES67OWg0DF0xvkKm6KcQr9f-vVB6egCLcB/s1600/gold1.png

    Many EW’s analysts has this scenario as a possibility going forward …

    I think 600-800 is false, my mentor told me a couple of years ago 970 was the number, he nailed the 1040, now we are waiting for 970. Do we get $1450 in gold before $970?

    Look at year 1999-2001 a double bottom in gold, are we at year 2000 now?

  11. zkotpen

    Gary,

    I agree with you about the wave B bounce in metals — you can see my post from several hours ago to that effect on the previous thread.

    Though wiggles are dramatic, neither gold nor GDX is getting out of line on a daily or intraday basis.

    That’s the other part folks don’t realize about patience: When you wait for the market to line up, it either does or it doesn’t. If it lines up the way you think it will, you take the trade; if not, you get back to work & try to figure out what’s coming next, protecting your equity in the mean time.

  12. zkotpen

    Robert,

    “The right trade was NUGT and JNUG”

    Good point mate.

    Now push “Rewind” on time and go back and take that NUGT and JNUG trade!

  13. Ralph Wiederzane

    There is nothing terrible in being incorrect on market calls, it is when you pretend you are right when you are wrong that brings trouble.

  14. Bluebellkid

    IAG normally trades 7.9 mm shares a day and today in the first 30 minutes it has traded over 3 mm and that is while it is going up not down – quite bullish and makes you wonder. At this point I don’t own it and it is out of the upper band and already getting overbought but it is at the top of my list for potential buys.

  15. dboz

    I think the rebalancing is done. The selling has occurred in GDXJ, hence it got the bump the last few days. That is the weird action between GDX and GDXJ. Things are very optimistic looking today. Everyone is loading up expecting the same reactions as the last 2 times as GARY has pointed out so well. This morning was expected with the pop up. Three big red candles with longer lower wicks was bullish. As Gary mentions, lots of overhead resistance to get through. VOLUME does not signify the momo to be able to get it done. It is going to take some monster volume to break out. I am open today for either direction. I want to load up on JDST and DUST but it’s tough right now for me.

    1. Bluebellkid

      You are correct about the volume – that is one thing that is lost on Gary – he pays very little attention to volume or understands its significance which is ironic since the volume “tracks” smart money (the ones who drive the markets).

      1. Gary Post author

        You are wrong about that. I do keep tabs on volume especially in the triple leveraged funds.

        What I’ve said countless times is that history has shown that many rallies can begin and progress on light volume. Heavy volume is usually a good sign but it isn’t absolutely critical for success.

  16. Robert

    This is a B wave up in gold and then the drop into the ICL? Give me a break. If thats the case then gold miners are no where near going to the Dec lows. Right now im doubting they will even hit the May lows

  17. dboz

    Robert, you don’t think a 100 dollar down move in gold and a 2-3 dollar drop in silver is going to push miners down? There could still be one more bounce in gold off the 1240 range. If 1240 breaks, bear mode resumes. I just don’t want to be caught stuck again. Better to get on board of a break out than to get caught on a cascade down drop.

    1. Christian

      Gary’s timing is off but his big picture outlook is spot on and the divergence in the US dollar and Gold’s weekly chart is warning of an impending correction.

      In fact, GDX is reversing as we speak.. How many of you had the good sense to pick up some DUST this morning?

      Let me take a guess — zilch!

          1. Christian

            Learn how to type Ralphy!

            “Christine likes to hear HERSELF babble.”

            You platypus Lol!

  18. Bluebellkid

    ERX dropped below the 50 day in January and has traded there since. Twice it shot up past the 50 day but ran into the 200 day because the death cross had just occurred and the 200 day was right there to provide resistance. Both of those attempts came on below average volume. Since then it has bumped up to the 50 day and been repelled every time. John Mauldin wrote a newsletter about oil this past year or so and how the hydraulic frackers and horizontal drillers were making huge strides in their technologies and the prospects for cheaper oil were real and going to happen.

    1. Christian

      If you wanna try and squeeze a few more cents out of this trade then knock yourself out! Just don’t lose sight of the big picture — a correction in Gold is coming and it’s gonna hurt when it does πŸ™‚

      1. JJHarmen

        Of course a correction is coming in gold, but from what level? Is that something like Gary calling for oil to turn and when it doesn’t he just keeps calling for a turn until it happens? I will take my chances with GDX. How’s that DUST trade been working for you and Gary? How about ERX? No? How about the dollar?

        1. Christian

          Gary’s time line is different than mine and I’m a lot more tactical when it comes to timing my trade because I know how πŸ™‚

          Needless to say.. I said I would and I picked up more DUST this morning @$27. My current average is $27.50.

          Big picture — The US Dollar and Gold’s Weekly Chart are both showing divergence. That should be your focus.

  19. JJHarmen

    Crude oil is getting smashed but XLE is still well above it’s low made on June 7. This might be a good time to buy oils. Hey Don, where you at today? Is this flush in crude a final bottom?

      1. Christian

        And other than a few ‘cheeky’ comments you have yet to offer anything of value. Is that the best you can do?? C’mon buddy.. post a chart, a trade.. a picture of the wife? Anything that shows you might actually have a workable marble in that noggin of yours.

        Waiting with anticipation…………….

  20. Robert

    DUST & JDST has been a disaster since 34. It doesnt matter if gold drops into an ICL as most ppl are seriously underwater. Gary keeps saying no patience but psychologically its big damage. Even if DUST/JDST goes up those who bought early will likely just break even or slightly green. Most will sell at break even because they have been very stressed out on that trade

  21. JJHarmen

    This board is awful quiet today. Is everyone waiting for the miners to crash as predicted by Gary/Christian? GDX is holding up so far. I am tempted to buy more.

  22. dboz

    You realize that JDST was over $100 on May 4th. If things tank, that gives a 70% return in potentially 6 weeks. If you are underwater by over $40 you bought wrong or sold wrong.

  23. Alexandru Popovici

    I bet analysts flock saying USX is on day fifty-something of its DC but it actually only on DAY FIVE, five not fifty –> and it has plenty of room and days to fall [while gold and EUR to go up] !

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      I also bet analysts still buy the dip in Energy complex …. πŸ™‚ with crude oil retracing so much in its DC they stil believe this DC wil not fail! Damn! So much stubborness!

  24. bluelagoon

    Alex – you were right – crude and NG still heading down. Gary’s ERX is still way underwater and so is his DUST trade. Let’s see if you’re right again about Gold after today’s announcement. It’s all about timing – and your timing has been very good thus far. I know you are targeting $39 and $2.65 for NG but that’s based on an intermediate cycle right with daily cycles to be played within that?

  25. JJHarmen

    Well, i was trying to be diplomatic but I think Christian is telling a big fib about his average 27.50 DUST price. He pretty much does exactly the same thing as Gary. Sometimes I think they might be identical twins.

  26. Christian

    Gentlemen.. I can bullshit with the best of them but have no reason to lie. I kept my core position in Dust during the big drop [because my thesis hasn’t changed], and said I would buy back my shares in and around FOMC. I loaded up this morning when GDX started to turn.

    Ps: There’s a record of everything I’ve done with DUST on this blog.

    1. Robert

      Ok understood but you need to cut back on your insults to everyone. Your saying im not cut out for trading. If you are telling me you never once worried on your DUST position you are a liar. You sold half for a loss alrdy so dont lie about emotions

  27. Don

    Good day everyone. I was out all morning dealing with business matters. I wasn’t expecting much to happen until after the FED announcement anyway. Today’s surprises are with the oil and bond markets. Crude is down a whopping 3.7% and TLT up 1.6%. Yields are dropping while the FED is hiking rates, at least that what is expected in a few minutes. As usual, nothing is making sense.

    I see gold is up but the miners are struggling. That one is a tough call but since I am long the miners and silver, I am biased to seeing gold rise after the hike. We shall see how the game unfolds. The crowd will be wrong, as they must be so the machines can profit for their masters.

  28. JJHarmen

    Hey Don, nice to see you are still with us. What is your take on the oils? I am considering buying into XLE or XOP and maybe even a little ERX. Good idea?

  29. Don

    JJ: I told you yesterday that I would not touch ERX and I still feel that way. If you must get in to oils, stick with the unlevereged ETFs but I don’t think we have seen the bottom for crude so be careful.

  30. Steffmeister

    Bearish for gold:

    However, the Fed now believes inflation will fall well short of its 2 percent target this year. The post-meeting statement said inflation “has declined recently”

    I sold 10% of my miners, summer low here it comes!

  31. AT

    Finally some life in DUST.

    Hopefully this is the start toward the the Gold ICL, perhaps the dip will end around 1210 – 1230 before time to load JNUG.

  32. Alexandru Popovici

    CHRISTIAN: yes, that gap had to be filled post FOMC, not before, I had mentioned that.

    Now I have a buy-stop gold @ right above the high of today, i.e. 1283
    the same can be done for EURUSD – a buy stop at 1.1297.

    NOW THE BIGGEST MISTAKE WOULD BE TO BUY OURTIGHT USD, ENERGY, STOCKS, EVEN GOLD OR EUR (instead of on buy-stops mentioned) OR TO SELL GOLD, JPY OR TREASURIES BIG MISTAKES!!!

  33. Don

    Sliver and platinum are still holding on to healthy gains so the gold sell off may have been a stop run. The sell off in the miners was so expected by nearly everyone so I am not worried.

  34. Alexandru Popovici

    short-CAC40 trades back into profit.
    waiting for gold to reach my 1283 target to get long –> usd to go down big, big time, fellows, ALONG WITH STOCKS AND NON-PM COMMODITIES, WHILE TREASURIES, JOY AND GOLD WILL TRUMPH.

      1. Alexandru Popovici

        not anymore, it’s way is up and up but i my self will enter long gold only @ 1283 not now!
        i buy dips in risk/return ratio, not dips in price!!!!

          1. Alexandru Popovici

            no, i am not contrarian to Gary – he was my first mentor.
            i mentioned my reasoning earlier this week.

  35. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, yes, the bloodbath in energy is starting in earnest! it will be sheer havoc through this first half of the summer!
    sheer hazard –> the PREMISE OF GREAT BUYING IN LATER WEEKS WHEN I RENDER THE SIGNAL πŸ™‚

      1. theworldwithoutfacebook

        If JNUG gets to around $10 I it’s a triple from there if Gary’s thesis plays out. You only need to nail one of these trades a year.

  36. Steffmeister

    Inflation was golds only hope for now. We didn’t get that, now we will correct further however I think it will turn around soon, give it a month.

      1. Robert

        Lol yup because they all bought at 34 a long way to break even they will prbly get it but I bet most of his subscribers aill have the guts to hold longer

        1. silveron

          He sold the original position and reopened another slightly below the sell price of the first buy in,so yes the portfolio is down overall on the trade at this point but in profit on the rebuy. He should do well on the trade overall if we get the ICL in the next 4 to 6 weeks. Not many on this board would come out on this trade,you have no patience to let it work. You know who you are I’m referencing.

    1. Christian

      Yes sir — The writing has been on the wall for quite some time now. And there’s no way Gold’s about to start a new cycle with the buck so beaten down.

      Yes, it’s difficult to trade when one is getting whipsawed in every direction but that’s why it’s important to keep an eye on the big picture and also why I’ve kept my core position since pretty much the beginning.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/dtWf3Mfw/

      Like I said a little while back.. Trading doesn’t have to be hard and one should ignore the wiggles as much as you possibly can so that your emotions don’t get all tangled up in the mess. And by the way ROBERT.. I’m not being rude; I’m pointing out the obvious! It took me a good 5 years to realize and accept the fact that the Markets can be extremely irrational for much longer than anyone thinks. Get use to it. That’s how you make consistent money!

      1. Robert

        Ok Christian fair enuff. So will u hold for the entire ICL or will u try to cash out on this DCL? We could bounce a good deal on the DCL to form an ABC correct in. And how high can dust go?

  37. Don

    Interesting how very small declines in the S&P are quickly bought while declines in gold are allowed to run their course. The big money(not necessarily smart money) is still chasing the over valued stock market while ignoring gold.

  38. Emptyness

    FED is head of the madhouse – they live in a dreamworld, nothing to do with reality – and the big money believes in FED, what a joke ! That means we have another 1 or 2 months to buy cheap gold and goldminers, silver and silverminers. It’s the final countdown ….

  39. jacob2

    Dumb and dumber. Over the last 2’weeks,sold half my tech stocks some owned for years with the intention of sitting in cash, peacefully. However, on total impulse doubeld up on energy at the close. Dumb and dumber I don’t know.

  40. zkotpen

    Don,

    I’m fairly balanced, but right-brain leaning

    (left-leaning ambidextrous).

    Remember They Might Be Giants?

    I don’t want the world,
    I just want your half.

    I’m convinced that’s about the discontent of the left brain.
    If you look at a photo of TMBG with guitars in hand, it becomes clear.

  41. zkotpen

    Don,

    “What we need to do to allow magic to get hold of us is to banish doubt from our minds. Once doubts are banished, anything is possible.”

    Without the magic, on the other hand, it’s boredom and conflict that reign supreme, i.e., the state of the real, non-magick, left-brain, concept-world.

  42. fatboy

    I wonder if Golid made lunch money today?? He likes JNUG all the way to the bank, do not see to much reply today???Admit this market is crazy!!

  43. Don

    I am still unable to accept that the miners will retrace to their December lows although today’s action was anything but bullish. If HUI or GDX take out their May lows, then I will concede that the Dec. lows will become a target. Such an event would certainly discourage a lot of bulls.

    1. Christian

      And yet there’s plenty of evidence suggesting otherwise. Your emotions and/or expectations are choosing to ignore the obvious. GDX has a date with SUPPORT @$17 by the time Gold reaches its ICL/sentiment extreme.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/JbPCVcP6/

      Let me put it to you this way.. If Pedestrian ever shows up on this blog again and starts trying to convince everyone that Gold is heading back to $1000 (cuz we’re still in a ‘bear’ market — cough cough) then that’s when you should buy hand over fist πŸ™‚

  44. zkotpen

    Don,

    Who’s talking about brain size?

    Develop your intuition my friend!

    You know I was onto something Wednesday, don’t you?

    It’s palpable, but your logick brain doesn’t understand it, so it reacts.

    ~ Blink ~

  45. dboz

    Don, I agree with you. If gold drops out of it’s channel below 1240-1245 level, it’s too bearish and kills any chance of a bull for a long time. We need gold to remain in a good position to launch. Back down to the cellar will crush bulls and I don’t see how big money comes in unless we get a technical breakout to provide Momo.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold just needs to correct after a 6 month rally. There’s nothing more complicated than that going on. You don’t need to fret over channels and such. Once sentiment is bearish enough then gold will take off again and the next leg of this new bull market will get underway.

    1. Gary Post author

      Hopefully over the next 2-3 weeks we’ll get a real correction in the stock market. Something that will clear sentiment and setup the next leg higher.

      Be prepared to buy just when things look the bleakest…assuming the PPT allows the market to correct.

  46. ras

    Underlying commodity, oil, is not supporting the bounce in oil stocks. in a worthwhile move, most oil stocks participate. This bounce is very selective. Gary’s call premature?

  47. Ed

    Putin just offered asylum to James Comey. Just like FED messing around with your head. What a B rated actor Yellen was yesterday. But we will find out in due time aren’t we not. In meantime I am going to chill out. πŸ™‚

  48. bluelagoon

    AT – looking at the charts – DUST has paused due to resistance on 1/2hr timeframes. It’s very clear on JDST – it hit the very top resistance (2HR 50MA) very fast yesterday and needed to come down. If JDST can clear its 4HR 50MA – I would expect more bullishness but the daily chart is looking like it will correct further.

  49. Gary Post author

    What we are seeing now is traders caught on the slope of hope. Looking for any little bullish sign and still unwilling to accept the trend change. This will continue all the way down until the final bloodbath phase where everyone just finally gives up in disgust.

    That’s when it will be time to buy.

    The dollar has to break the intermediate trend line. Until that happens there’s no sense trying to pick a bottom in gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      You need to accept that the metals are caught in an intermediate decline. It still has several weeks to go yet. Before its done GDX is going to be driven below the December lows.

      Yes there will be bounces along the way. There will be days where the miners don’t follow gold or show relative strength compared to gold, but none of that is going to stop the correction.

      The fact is that gold rallied for 6 months. It needs to have a multi-week correction. There is nothing out of the ordinary about this. In fact it’s necessary. Corrections created doubt and clear sentiment. They rebuild the wall of worry, and in the end that is what drives a bull market.

      1. Robert

        Gary sorry to bother you but will you emoloy the same strategy again as in hold your short for entire duration of the ICL? Last time the daily cycle bounce was very powerful and hurt shorts bad. Do you expect a strong enough bounce out of this coming DCL? So what im asking would you try to time the DCL, get out of shorts. Then reshort near the next daily cycle top?

        1. Gary Post author

          Almost none of you have the patience to let a trade work. There was never much risk to the original trade. It was always just going to be a counter trend bounce.

          If you think you can successfully trade every little wiggle you are fooling yourself.

  50. Don

    It will not be the PPT that aborts the SM sell off, it will be the machines and their think alike programming. However, if a sell off becomes too unruly, they are programmed to withdraw from the markets. The central banks have been stepping in and buying so as to prevent any cascading sell off. One day, that will support will end.

    1. Gary Post author

      You need to understand that shorting the stock market is a losing proposition. If we had free markets sure you could short. But we don’t, so there is no safe way to sell short. You never know if and when the PPT may step in to stop the correction.

  51. Kruzoe

    Dust is acting “weird” this am. Still think it has a date with 35 over the next 4 weeks. I’m holding on to my Dust for now but will bale out at a moment’s notice.

  52. Ed

    I have allocate just enough JNUG that I can withstand the pain and rest all in individual gold and silver miners and GDXJ. I am going to delete Investing App from my Android and GOING COLD TURKEY until a major shit happens. πŸ™‚ It’s just waste of time following USDJPY midnight FED’s gold body slams and all that crazy shits happenings.
    I know few things that will happen due time:
    1. Weaker dollar and inflation due to budget deficits and now Yellen’s crazy idea of FED’s balance sheet draw down.
    There are more but just 1 is all that good enough reason to GO COLD TURKEY. GL to you all πŸ™‚

  53. Don

    The big five are all down significantly from their highs (down 5% on average in the past five days), while the S&P is down a mere 0.8%. That just makes no sense at all . The central banks must be working overtime to keep up the appearance that all is well.

  54. Alexandru Popovici

    ChrisG, I do not think that a failed cycle needs to occur to rendeer final confirmation of ongoing decline towards the bottom of a larger degree cycle.
    For instance, Gary and I contend that gold’s last ICL was on Mar10 – I think yes even if there was no failed daily cycle there.

  55. Alexandru Popovici

    My buy-stop gold @ 1283 was not hit and I’ve erased any buy-gold order so far because USD has confirmed today that it is not on day 6 but on day 1 – the prior DC got a bit extended.

    Thus we have the prior DC of EUR extremely right-translated and it is close to becoming oversold !!!
    This should be an omen for USD-bulls medium term –> once EURUSD reaches its DCL, USX will most likely hit its DCH.
    So, a dead cat bounce in USD is going on for just a few days, as EUR searches for its DCL –> I will search for re-buying gold there.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      my short CAC40 position is greener πŸ™‚ –> US Transports Index topped yeasterday as I had been expecting for about 3 weeks.

      CRB index is very late in its DC and NatGas signals it may be today on day 1. On the other hand crude has retraced almost 100% of its DC advance…usually gravitation pulls assets in such situation towards delivering failed cycles! So….I am still out of shorting Energy –> I’ll reshort NatGas once cycles clear after I see NG shaking its 50Wma.

      Good luck to ya all! I’m out for today.

  56. Bigdaddy

    I was put out of commission by my wife. She wrecked my computer with a hammer because she said she was sick of listening to me ranting about losing money. stupid bitch. How am i supposed to get my money back if I don’t play the markets? Now I have a laptop and out in the shed. i hate this dinky screen. My next move? Not sure . i will assess and get back to you guys.

    1. Gary Post author

      You wait patiently for stocks to complete a cycle low over the next 2-3 weeks and then you buy TQQQ and hold it for the next 6-8 months as stocks move deeper into their bubble phase.

      That’s how you get your money back.

      If you keep day trading you will just keep getting the same result.

        1. Gary Post author

          If you think you can avoid drawdowns in this business you’re also kidding yourself.

          If it was that easy all of you would be multi billionaire hedge fund managers. And even the best of the best suffer multi year drawdowns.

          Micheal Burry suffered a 2 year drawdown before the Big Short paid off. I don’t think any of you would say the trade was a failure.

          Unfortunately blogs like this are populated by day traders with an attention span only slightly longer than the average fruit fly. Is it any wonder almost none of you make any long term gains in the stock market?

          I’d be willing to bet that less than 10% (and it’s probably closer to 1%) have more money in your account now than you did 2 years ago.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Yes, bad tempered. She is my third wife and 18 years younger and a real live wire, if you know what I mean, so i put up with more shit than maybe I should. oh well. a hot woman is the best medicine for a man at least until she kills him by exhaustion. haha!

  57. Christian

    Folks, there’s nothing weird going on with the Miners. After yesterday’s big drop Miners need some time to digest before the next leg down.

    Seriously.. some of you continue to obsess and fret over every single wiggle in the market and are making things harder than they need to be.

    D’you not have anything better to do with your time???
    And if the answer is a resounding ‘NO’ then find something else to do with your life and give the Market time to do what it needs to do.

    Best advice you’ll ever get!!

    1. JJHarmen

      Christian; congrats on your DUST win. I was not so fortunate. It’s too bad you sold half last week at a loss. Maybe you should heed your own advice and let the market unfold as you expect it will. Will you be adding to your winning position in DUST?

      1. Christian

        JJ — I was away camping for 10 days and would rather be safe than sorry when trading a triple leveraged ETF. It’s called common sense my good man and you would’ve done the same πŸ™‚

        And to be completely honest with you.. I didn’t lose very much because I only sold half and kept my core position in place. As of this morning, DUST currently trades at $31.39 which means that I have more than made up whatever I lost last week and then some.

        My average ‘BUY-IN’ as of yesterday posted on this blog: $27.50

        Also.. You are forgetting that I called the exact bottom/top TWICE, back in April and again in May, on this blog and made a bag load of money on the way up.. meaning, I had money to spare if and when the Market threw us a curve ball πŸ™‚ That’s how you trade.

        And as far as you being not so fortunate: I’m shaking my head on this one.. I asked you personally “Why in the world would you BUY Miners this late in the cycle?” and never got a reply. And now you’re regretting that trade even though you and all the other cowboys on this blog were warned time and time again.

        It’s all about RISK VS REWARD — most have yet to grasp this very simple concept.

        BOTTOM LINE: YOU ARE EITHER SHORT MINERS OR SITTING ON THE SIDELINES.

        It’s that simple! Why aren’t people listening..?

        Oh I know why.. EGO and PRIDE. And lack of experience.

          1. Christian

            If you know how.. And I guarantee you that MOST people (especially the ones on this blog) don’t know how.

            Scalping requires a solid strategy, coupled with emotions of steel and years of experience.

            Are you that person? If you are.. go ahead and post a trade with your strategy in place so that the rest of us can learn πŸ™‚

        1. RetireYoung

          I primarily agree with you that scalping is very hard and most will lose money. I should elaborate that if someone wants to use a small percent of their portfolio then go for it. Helps some with the FOMO. People love Vegas, especially the junkies playing these 3x ETFs!

          I am in JDST unless stopped out or it hits my targets. Stops set at about $61 and $55. I like to get under supports in case there is a pierce but not a break. Like what happened recently at the trend line everyone was talking about. Sells go up to around $100 then holding a small portion and will buy more if breaches about $100 with momentum

  58. JJHarmen

    Gary must be pleased that his DUST trade is getting close to a break even point. ( $33-$34, I believe). I guess he is right when he says we have to expect draw downs to occur. Maybe I should have kept GDX and rode it out.

  59. Gary Post author

    I’ve been saying for months now that the banksters are going to run the stops below the December low before the ICL is complete.

    At that time you can judge whether my DUST trade was a success or not.

    It would be great if one could pick exact tops and bottoms on every trade but it’s just not realistic. If one can just get “close enough” you can make a ton of money. I’m pretty sure we got close enough with our DUST trade, and what many are conveniently choosing to forget is that our initial entry was on April 18th at $25.

    1. Christian

      Exactly — Everyone has (out of convenience) forgotten what happened back in April. DUST bottomed around $24 and shot up to $38..!! If you didn’t make any money on that trade then you better find another hobby πŸ™‚

    2. Don

      Gary is correct when he said that his initial entry on DUST was 24.60 on April 18th. I believe that position was sold at 27.19. The position was put back on at 33.75 and then was sold or stopped out a couple of times resulting in losses that exceeded the initial gain. Correct? Gary then put the position back on just recently and is now approaching a break even point on for the entire trade on DUST since April 18. Correct?

      1. Gary Post author

        Basically if we were to exit today the metal portfolio would be up 136%.

        But I don’t anticipate exiting for another 4-6 weeks yet.

        We’ll see where the portfolio is at that time and then everyone can judge whether the waiting was worth it.

        I suspect those of you that tried to jump in an out or play both sides will massively underperform our simple buy and hold until the ICL is struck strategy, even though we had to weather a short term drawdown.

        And in the end the final score is the only thing that matters.

      1. Gary Post author

        See my comment above.

        We are considerably outperforming the miners over the last two years and that’s even if one could have picked the exact bottom.

        I also dare say we are massively outperforming virtually everyone here over the long term. While you guys fret over daily wiggles we just keep building the portfolio a little bit at a time, which over the long term adds up to serious money.

        Everyone else just churns their wheels trying to trade every wiggle and in the end they make very little or even worse end up losing money.

        1. AT

          Gary, majority still need to recover the big loss from JNUG 23 fiasco from last October. Perhaps that will happen later this year after selling DUST close to ICL bottom and reload JNUG or other Gold stocks/etfs to ride back up.
          Let’s move on, and focus to the future.

  60. RetireYoung

    Great call on gold Gary. I’ve been reading for a couple of weeks and enjoying the videos plus comments especially from some of the posters that are actually sharing their strategies/charts and not just stressing out and complaining. Many are complaining incessantly about gold. Personally I’ve done very well with JDST over the last month and a half. Rode from around $68 to sell around $79 then $75 to $77 and currently have an average cost of $64ish. My risk is defined and I have targets for when to start selling incrementally. My high target is around $100. My TA skills are definitely a work in progress but my strategy is improving; why I am here: to read and learn; not to search for evidence supporting what I want to see.

    A great word of advise came from Z (I think it was Z) regarding reading Trading in the Zone. This would especially help Robert and BigDaddy.

    BD- if you have cancer wtf are you doing wasting time fighting with your wife! Read the book, do the exercise in the back, and realize that there is always another trade!

  61. Bigdaddy

    Ok guys, here it is. I have had enough of trying to short this bullshit stock market. Oils are what we should be buying right now cause crude is going to go up. I have an order in to buy a Canadian ETF that is not leveraged. BUY OILS!

        1. Bigdaddy

          Ok Christian, you seem to know what you are talking about. I will wait for better prices. The Canadian oils are beat all to hell, far worse than the US companies so I think they are the best bet.

  62. Gary Post author

    COP, XOM, & CVX are warning that the bottom is very close if not in. I doubt they will make lower lows even if oil does. Once the bottom is in then the entire sector should do very well.

  63. Don

    Not nuts, I hope. Gold and silver are only down today because the US dollar is up. Rate hikes should be good for gold so yesterday’s negative reaction may be short lived.

    1. Nada

      Don,

      I think you may be missing two important conditions. 1. The dollar is coming out of an ICL. 2. USDJPY is coming out of a YCL. One of these conditions could wreck your world, but you have TWO. Now with that said, there could always be geopolitical event that could cause gold to spike. I would exit on a bounce if you can. Best of luck.

  64. dboz

    My watch list is 3 pages long, I am showing green on 6. Tells me I have the wrong watch list! LOL

    The falling wedge is GUSH is just too tempting even though it is falling badly today. This time or the next time we touch the bottom, that may be the last time we get there. Expecting a breakout at some point. Oil got the last flush in my opinion. Everyone now thinks its going to continue lower.

  65. fatboy

    Big Daddy,
    Got to say you have a great sense of humor,!!!LOL!! Cheers up all the dead beats that cry here!!
    Keep on posting its good for the brain!LOL!!

  66. desertsun999

    Discretionary spending is starting to collapse. Take a look at EAT stock. Its a crash in progress with the daily, weekly and monthly Bollinger Bands in crash mode. This is the first time that this has happened since the 2008 crash.

  67. desertsun999

    Despite all the smoke and mirrors we may be approaching another severe downturn. Personal and commercial bankruptcies have bottomed in 2016 and are now starting to spike back up. There are certain things that the central banks cannot hide and discretionary spending and bankruptcies are two big leading indicators.

  68. bluelagoon

    DBOZ – I think GUSH has more downside to go IMHO from the longer term charts. As well, it ends the months of June/July down from start of month last 4-5 yrs.

  69. dboz

    It hit 52 week lows today. I guess it can just keep on going lower. I am in for now and no stop on this one. Severe last ditch shake out before launching. 20% up and down swings in the last week. Fake out and then shake out before taking off making people question the move again??

  70. Don

    Virtually every sector is down big today, the decliners exceed advancers by more than 2:1 and yet the S&P is barely down. What the hell is going on?

  71. desertsun999

    This is a headline from business insider, ” A number of key measures show restaurants are in their worst tailspin since the recession.” I guess this explains EAT crashing right now. If the restaurants are starting a crash mode then this does not bode well for oil either. Just look what happened in 2008. What if oil is trying to tell us that we are going into recession?

  72. Christian

    DUST 2hr Chart — Forming a triangular consolidation in preparation for the next leg up πŸ™‚

    My first target ~ $38/200DMA

    I’m gettin hard just thinkin about it.

          1. dboz

            Yep, very. Like I said, sub $19.30 is probably my bottom to stay in. Friday usually has a nice bounce if it’s been a bad week. It’s been a bad week.

    1. Gary Post author

      I post the sentiment charts to the premium site for subs when it is appropriate.

      If you want daily updates get a subscription to sentimentrader.com.

      1. ras

        Could be Gary. I have never seen a good up move in the oil sector without active participation by senior oil drillers like hal and slb. Current advance is mostly concentrated in 5 or 6 of the top 10 holdings in xle(erx). May be they have hedges on their production, which could explain their resistance to decline in crude. Revisiting the up move last year, one sees that the rising tide lifted up most of the boats along with both gush and erx equally well. Both oil producers and drillers participated vigorously. Such is not the situation now.

        It could be different this time.

  73. Don

    JJ: There is no way to know. Price discovery no longer exists. What’s stopping the banks from buying every stock on the planet? Sounds ludicrous, I know, but what they are doing now would have been unthinkable even 10 years ago. They are creating money, at will, in order to buy stocks and bonds. What is the end game? if there is a crash, it will only happen because the banks WANT a crash. With unlimited funds at their disposal, they can stop a crash dead in it’s tracks but only if that is what they really want to do.

  74. Gary Post author

    The dollar isn’t like to find a final intermediate top until the next FOMC meeting on July 26.

    Gold isn’t likely to find a bottom until the final week in July.

    As you can see there’s just no need to be in a big hurry to buy metals at this time.

    1. ras

      Just 2 points, Gary. your estimate for gold ‘s lower target is around 1180/1160, the lower boundary of the triangle. We are already at 1260. So, what we are looking at is a further $100 decline at most. To produce the kind of extreme negative sentiment you are looking for, we need a waterfall decline in pm stocks for 10 -15 days with an undercut of Dec low, as gold approaches the lower boundary of the triangle. This could start after the May low is taken out.

  75. Don

    The only scenario in which I can envision the banks orchestrating a crash is if it were for the purpose of advancing the elitist goals of only one world currency and ultimately, one world government. Some think a crash would serve the purpose of discrediting Trump and the populist movement and that may be, but I doubt that is the final end game for the elites.

  76. JJHarmen

    One currency, one government? I think you have an over active imagination, my friend. We have had crashes before and none of that happened so why would it this time? Sorry, but your logic is flawed.

  77. Gary Post author

    Governments try to avoid crashes an recessions at all costs. Politicians lose their jobs during recessions.

    They will continue to prop the market up until they go too far and cause parabolic bubble to form.

    1. JJHarmen

      The economy is not in the hands of the government. In the past, the FED has deliberately caused recessions in order to cool down over heated economies and they did so by raising interest rates excessively

  78. Don

    JJ: You are entitled to your opinion, of course. But think about it, if a crash were severe enough and the economy of the world were to tank like never before, don’t you think people would demand change after several years of misery? That is what happened after the 1929 crash and the ensuing world wide depression. People were ready for change, new laws were enacted and wars were started in order to get economy moving again and everybody was on board. Only when conditions are really grim are the masses willingly accept radical change.

    Anyway, that’s it from me for today. I am out of here. Tomorrow is another day.

  79. Gary Post author

    Raising interest rates doesn’t cause recessions. Inflation is what causes a recession and the bursting of a bubble.

    Every recession since the 40’s has been preceded by a spike in energy prices of 100% or more in a year or less. It’s too much of a shock to the economy and causes consumer spending to collapse.

    1. dboz

      Rising cost of debt can’t cause a recession? Higher payments on credit cards, variable mortgage loans and the cost of cars to buy or lease? Major expenses for most.

      Maybe they will just drive energy lower to balance it out? Cheap utility bills and really cheap fuel costs can lead to lower prices of consumer goods as movement of the goods is lower with reduced energy costs as well as daily commuter costs reduced with cheap gas prices. Getting close to sub 2 bucks in many places.

  80. desertsun999

    Gary, we might as well be living in the matrix. Everything you see is an illusion. Its not real. Bitcoin should be the poster child of our economy. I will let the people of the U.S. tell me with their pocket books what’s real and what’s not.

  81. palobar

    Gold = 11-17 July
    If one is interested in trading gold and catching the big moves in this market, then you may want to highlight this period on your calendar. Not every high or low have the same importance. Those ones that are geometrically linked to the major swings in a particular market are the key points to pay attention. When the market goes through one of those points, then you get the big moves (eg the high at the ned of January for the DJIA). The cycles often discussed here (ie daily cycles, weekly cycles etc) have nothing to do with when gold tops or bottoms since they do not define them mathematically and geometrically. Of course, they are useful, but they cannot tell you months in advance with a high accuracy at which week(s) you will get a strong turning point. If you are not aware of those time bands, you may find yourself holding a position and waiting for the dailiy cycle to complete, then the weekly and so on. The geometry of the 2016 high was amazing. As long as we are below that high, gold is in a bear market. I still think that there is a chance that it could test the 2015 low. My work has captured very well the major turnings points in gold (most of the times to the day) weeks in advance. Follow Gary’s work and just be on higher alert for the weeks I may share from time to time. The recent December low and April high were screaming on my spreadsheets. April was one of the two strongest expected turning points of the year in my view. July is important, so we may see a low in the week I wrote above. According to my work, there is a stronger turning point later this year.

      1. Robert

        Maybe this daily cycle will bottom July 10 and then the ICL end of July to early Aug. I am jus wondering if the bounce from this DCL is goin to be strong. Would not want a repeat of last time when DUST gave back a good amount of its gains

  82. ras

    gdx seems to have started stair stepping DT. A good strategy for nimble traders could be to step aside during bounces and sell when the bounce tends lose momo.

  83. Bob

    The scariest part of holding JDST/DUST is the Trump factor. You have to measure the odds that he will do something really strange, throwing gold out of whack, and those odds increase with time.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you are banking on politics sending the price of gold higher you may have a long wait.

      News events are good for a one or two day spike then the market goes back to doing what it was doing before the news broke.

      Right now gold needs to correct after rallying for 6 months.

  84. LiesandDamnLies

    Gary’s not good with oils.

    Someone else with more time can come up with his history

    Not so bad on gold.

    I agree that the market has turned and gold and miners are heading lower. Sold all my Aussie miners over a week ago.

    My prediction target is for gold to bottom out in the last two weeks of July. Then the gold market turns and should go on a good run with some bounces along the way to about mid November. Then the Santa rally should just about take over. Stocks to rise gold to fall.

    cheers Lies

    PS made some calls some months ago. they eventuated a little earlier than predicted but still the pattern is the same.

  85. victor

    Expecting Qatar crisis to influence oil and oversold in energy entered long oil and related stocks, under water now. I think oil should bounce but in tandem with stocks…, but stocks despite constant weakness buying trying to move lower I think to 2350 on SPX. Oil will suffer more…. Out of NG abt two week ago.

  86. Bigdaddy

    Everybody tells me to wait before jumping into oils, So i am waiting for better prices and what happens? They go up while i sit here watching like my dog watches me. Stupid like. Of course SQQQ is going up because I don’t have it it. anymore. At least the wife let me bring the laptop into the kitchen. I hate this teensy f…ing screen. I can’t see shit . I am going to buy a another tower today.

    1. victor

      … and install Windows 7 on it, maybe it’s too old but reliable, for the last 4yrs I install it on new desktop has NO any glitch, love it.

    2. RetireYoung

      BD- If “missing” trades is bothering you then you’re not ready to be making trades. There have always been limitless opportunities in the stock market and there always will be. There are numerous stocks making big moves right now. Develop your strategy and stick with it. Even if it’s throwing a dart at a board you will likely have better results than emotionally jumping in and out.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Don. WTF is going on with BKX? It’s down to 18 cents! I am thinking to bail out before it goes to zero. Their properties are located in the US so it’s not really a Canadian oil company anyway. To answer your question: I have an account with a Canadian online brokerage firm and I think Canadian oils will go up more than American.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Harmen, why are you being a numbskull? Gary and Christian and just everybody else have said the miners are going down more so why not wait for better prices like I am waiting for oils to fall further. Today, you get to wear the dunce hat.

    1. Christian

      Are you serious?? Oh my God! Miners are consolidating for the next move down bud. Not up!!

      JJ — you are just as stubborn as the rest of them.

      Good luck to you πŸ™‚

      1. Robert

        Christian what about GDXJ. Its alot better than GDX now. Will it go down as much on the drop or will it hold up better based on how its been acting?

        1. Christian

          Hard to say Robert. You’re kinda asking me a ‘crystal ball’ question.

          I’m pretty good at timing my trades but even I get thrown for a loop on occasion. The Market does like to surprise people with shock and awe, as we’ve seen a countless number of times.

  87. Christian

    Listen up Hobbits! This is what’s going on with the Miners, below.. for your viewing pleasure:

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/JbPCVcP6/

    SAVE THIS CHART on your desktop and if I’m wrong over the next couple of months you can go ahead and trow dirt at my face!

    But don’t bother me with the daily baloney wiggles. This is big picture forecast.

    1. Christian

      DUST or JDST? The juniors are going through a rebalancing act (you can google for details) which means they could on occasion behave irrationally and throw everyone off.

      That being said, if you wanna do a little bit of both you certainly can.. I’m gonna stick to DUST for now.

      1. Robert

        Thats a strong B wave bounce Im assuming that will be the bounce out of this DCL. This is what I was saying to Gary. You will have to time that bounce because if you continue to hold DUST through that bounce you will likely lose a good chunk of your gains on this drop. So we need to time it and then reenter DUST cheaper for the C wave down

      1. Christian

        Maybe. Maybe not. The chart is for illustration purposes. The point is: Gold still has a date with an ICL and will drag the Miners down with it.. If you think I’m wrong then so be it πŸ™‚

        Jake — if you spend enough time studying the chart, you’ll realize that a move down to SUPPORT @17 is quite do-able. It’s only 5 points away! And it will all depend on the severity of Gold’s drop.

    1. Christian

      I don’t want you to ‘think’ Don. I want you to prove or at least illustrate your point so that you may be taken seriously. If your opinion is purely based on your emotions then what’s the point??

  88. ARends

    Looking at GDXJ holding DUST & JDST I believe to my charting we should hit around GDXJ 26.50 below where 27.50 was December low pushed with present deviation. when expecting gold to turn at 1180 . I would also believe that. According to my calculation a target expected should be sold as I see 5- 14 days miners start to turn before gold. If you aware of this you should keep to the plan, then what is happening with gold at that point.
    Getting out of JDST into Jnug or Nugt.
    This is a little mental note I will use to avoid the banks taking too much of your profits in those swings to lead gold as seen on each turn.
    https://invst.ly/44il1

  89. Bigdaddy

    Don, if you are referring to me, and I think you are (Mr bad luck??) then you can piss off. Since I bought DUST, it is up 20 ticks. The way to beat this game is to go with the winners and Christian is winning, not you with your dunce hat on. If you were not referring to me, then I am sorry.

  90. victor

    Bigdaddy,
    I think you will lose money on BKX, sell it and better play with bigis like EnCana ECA. Forget small energy companies for some time. My 2 cents.

  91. Goild

    Good afternoon,
    Get on board with JNUG for some weeks. It is going to fly to the moon.
    JNUG can make FANTASTIC things, and it is about to.
    I am in with 3K shares.
    Oil too, I am in with 7K shares.
    Enjoy the ride, and have the “mental strength to stand the heat.”

  92. Alexandru Popovici

    Any rise of crude oil is to be very limited intime and price – cap at 10dma – just to leave behind a HCL to allow CRB index to rise into a fresh DC before rolling over for many days.
    Playing long Energy or long USD or short gold are ultra-risky games – one can get a higher probability by tossing coin.

    1. Nada

      Alex.. you loving talking the talk, but your analysis is some of the worst I have read. The “great scorch”, always makes me laugh. Not to mention your horrid currency pair trades that you are constantly babbling about. You spoke of gold going to the moon after FOMC decision and once again you were left holding the bag. The sad thing is, most don’t even mention this fact – Why? Everyone has become so indoctrinated to your BS, that you get a free ride. Well a new sheriff is in town, and I will be sure to point out your failures going forward.

  93. Kruzoe

    With one hour to trade the question is: to hold or sell my 8K Dust with a 30K paper profit? When I look at to-day’s market so far, I am inclined to stay put and hold for the week end. I do a have stop at 29.80.

    1. KHT

      Well first the miners don`t necessarily always follow gold/silver. What I have been watching is this triangle.

      https://invst.ly/44jfd

      After the vicious sell off GDX went through Wednesday some consolidation is to be expected. It is now at the bottom rail of the triangle and also printed a doji so I consider any retracement as a buying opportunity in DUST which I will be watching for next week. i seriously doubt GDX will run to the top rail and it is very possible it could print a falling three methods which would be very bearish.

  94. Goild

    Rapunsel,

    In my view USO will eventually get back to previous highs. So this might be a long term trade.
    Though right now USO is near the bottom of the channel. It can get from $9.24 to about $9.5 in a couple of days and then I will take a decision whether to keep all the shares.

  95. Bigdaddy

    I am down on my DUST trade. Unbelievable. I think my dog is laughing at me. is that even possible? Glad the wife isn’t here. i will tell her later that I am up on the day and hope for the best on Monday. Sometimes, lying is the best policy. What am I doing wrong? i follow the guy that seems to know how to make money , Christian, and I still lose.

    1. Christian

      You’re hopeless Bigdaddy..! No one told you to buy 300 shares @31.45 and another 200 @31.84

      The move up has already begun and you’re trying to ‘daytrade’ DUST during a consolidation. The time to buy was 2 days ago when DUST was trading around 26/27 dollars and everyone was afraid to pull the trigger.

      Your only option now is to try exercising a little bit of patience or take a loss then bitch about it to your wife who will very likely lose her shit again and drown your face in OIL Lol πŸ™‚

      1. Bigdaddy

        Christian, you are still holding on to your DUST with the expectation of more gains so how is that any different than me buying at 31.84 an expecting gains also? it isn’t, right? Furthermore, my gorgeous wife doesn’t care about me losing money as i have more than she could ever spend but she doesn’t like to hear me swearing and getting pissed and so i have to be cool around her and not pound the table and shit like that.
        if you are holding your DUST, so am I. I am not day trading anymore. Quit that nonsense last week.

        1. Christian

          It sounded like you were complaining. But perhaps I was quick to jump to conclusion.

          And if you really have more money than she could spend.. You should go old turkey and sail around the world instead of pounding your fist on the table.

          “It’s just money after all and it’s not worth it” an hedge fund manager told me once over a couple of cocktails.

          1. Bigdaddy

            Oh, I was complaining alright but not about you. I just want to win and I love the markets. I just want to beat them as a challenge. I could lose a few million and the wife will still be well looked after when I die. I hate sailing and saw enough of the world but thanks for the suggestion. We live part of the year in Switzerland and it is damm nice here although I still love British Columbia back in Canada.

    1. Don

      desert: Although I don’t know if either either as classed as being juniors, the volume and action are very interesting. The volume would appear to be a record for both with a definite reversal on EOG and AUY taking out it’s May low by one penny and then reversing. Sure looks like bottoming action. Good leg work on your part.

      1. Don

        Desertsun: I did some further checking and actually, a large number of gold stocks saw record volumes today and most did not exhibit bottoming signs as many closed down on the day. I think the high volumes may have had more to do with GDXJ rebalancing that was supposed to occur today.

        1. desertsun999

          Don, you could be right. The only thing I am invested in right now is silver & I might be early on that. I just took my hedge off today.

  96. ocram

    It seems that the bear market in gold is in danger of resuming according Jordan Ray Byrne.
    He was a long term bull,but he’s changing opinion because of interest rates and the continuing weakness in silver and the miners.

  97. Alexandru Popovici

    I do not understand why so much pessimism on gold and miners all over the places and why so icy optimism on the dollar !
    Time to buy back y PM lurks round the corner.

  98. fatboy

    Big Daddy,
    Just curious as to what part of the world you live in? Texas Maybe, Anyway would love to talk money and gold and oil with you one day over a few cold ones!!! Be patient my friend all will work out and by the way you must have a special woman in your life because all the woman i know would burn thru anyone’s cash pile!!Promptly!!LOLOL!!
    Good luck!

    Fatboy

  99. Bob

    Big Daddy,

    Christian is following Gary’s guidance and his chart very well reflects Gary’s thinking. He’s such a strong believer he starting to believe these are his forecasts. But that’s ok, most of us know the truth.
    That being said, Gary’s guidance is excellent and subscribers have access to many resources to help them learn to become self-sufficient or at least develop a great understanding of the reasons for the expectations Gary develops. My trading style has changed significantly (I now know “why” I’m holding what I’m holding) since subscribing.

  100. zkotpen

    KHT,

    Wow — I’m impressed — you’ve actually correctly drawn a triangle. Bravo! There are 3 things I would point out:

    1. Go ahead and include the wicks — they count. The market is aware of the extremes it reaches.

    2. I am in the process of rewriting and modernizing the guidelines of the Wave Principle. One little secret that I’ve shared with the group here, a key guideline: Wave C of triangle usually or often forms a double zig zag. Another: Wave C usually or often is the leg of the triangle that retraces the most.

    3. I know one needs to draw triangles for illustration purposes, but I don’t draw them any more. I just see them. This is especially true for wave B and especially especially for wave C. If I draw and post a triangle, you can be sure that, by the time somebody is looking at that image, the triangle lines have already been removed from my chart.

    You could say straight lines are positively medieval, but that would be shining too recent a light on them — they’re down right ancient.

    God bless Pythagoras — Ancient Rock God of Triangles!

    πŸ™‚

    1. KHT

      zkotpen thanks for the valuable input. I read all of your posts and respect your work but admit, much of it is over my head…..for now.

      Concerning point 1. Yes, wicks and tails are important, they are what actually happened. As we all know it takes only 2 points to start a trend line and the fist point may be a tail or wick. That will not change because it is the beginning of a trend. As the chart develops, my trend lines will adjust and what i watch for is when a body will break the line or when there are multiple points correlating with the original point and more times than not many of the wicks/tails appear to be over shoots. When the over shoots start to become prevalent or the wicks start banging their heads on a line, it may be a precursor to a breakout or breakdown. Much like the long term gold down trend which, depending how it is drawn, appears to be favoring a possible break to the upside. When that will be? Maybe the next time gold revisits the top of the triangle.

      Trend lines and triangles may be artifacts to many but I rely on them heavily and many of my charts can look like a road map with primary and secondary trends and triangles. it works for me and helps me in my goal to always (TRY TO!!) remain market neutral and be willing to trade long or short with purpose.

  101. zkotpen

    As you can tell, I am also monitoring for a possible triangle in GDX since the December lows.

    The May low was indicative of the third wave in a zig zag B of triangle from the February peak, and miners are showing no correlation, weak correlation, or moderate correlation to gold, on any given day. Strong correlation on a day like Wednesday — but those have been scarce in the 6-month consolidation rally.

    Also, yearly and multiyear consolidation is notably stronger between GDX and gold (both are in the same multiyear consolidation rally, both are in similar yearly cycle moves). But from intermediate cycle and lower, GDX is generally moderately or weakly correlated with gold, most of the time, since early February.

    One thing I found interesting: Since about late February, intermediate volatility has been contracting step-wise in GDX, little by little. As in, contract a little, stabilize, contract a little more, stabilize, to its current condition. Then early last month, daily volatility has also begun to contract in similar fashion. Despite the big drop Wednesday, significant volatility has been only intraday or shorter term. Both daily and intermediate volatility have remained stable. In other words, Wednesday’s price decline, though dramatic intraday, did not get out of line on a daily or intermediate basis.

    To me, that means there may be another lower low in miners on Monday or some time next week, but they are getting ready for a bounce, quite possibly to complete a wave C and really confuse everybody except Alex & me — and maybe KHT, if he/she is not constrained by the “upper rail” on their drawing.

    (And that’s why I don’t draw triangles: They tend to constrain one’s view point).

  102. zkotpen

    Bigdaddy,

    I realize sometimes my posts get a bit technical — that’s just what I see. My mind takes time to make the transition to less technical language, and markets just don’t wait.

    In this case, however, if you read my two posts above, the bottom line, particularly from the 2nd post, is that if you come late to a move in GDX, it’s quite possible that you’re too late, especially once the triangle (if it’s a triangle) starts getting to the pointy end.

    You don’t have to catch a move in miners early (which is often ‘too early’), but ras’s suggestion, of getting in right after the move gets underway after the first retracement, is prudent. If the point of recognition (steepest part of the move) is past, for miners, things get dicey in a hurry, and before you know it, there’s a reversal.

    My chart shows GDX is ready to head up to a daily cycle high, perhaps even higher than June. Hard to believe, but I can only say what I see on the chart. And if that’s wave C of triangle, it will likely exceed the June peak, only to reverse and clobber the bulls, then confound the bears, then reverse, and the up to a strange wave E (higher or lower than people expect), before reversing into the yearly cycle decline.

    If that sounds confusing — you are absolutely right. It is. And as you’ve noticed, in such a scenario, both NUGT and DUST get chewed up as the sideways consolidation drags on, especially as the different waves grind to completion after the steepest part of their moves — in both directions.

    1. zkotpen

      PS: “My chart shows GDX is ready to head up to a daily cycle high, perhaps even higher than June.”

      — Most likely, GDX would make a lower low next week, then swing low, then start a new daily cycle rally. This is not an absolute, but it is something that one MUST monitor for, so long as the consolidation in miners continues. The expected break is down, but that does not appear to be underway yet. The reason I think so: Daily and Intermediate volatility in GDX is low, and contracting. If that volatility starts to change, then I’ll move on to the next Intermediate move in this market. So long as daily and intermediate volatility continue stable or contracting, they will continue to do so.

      I monitor for this like an agricultural meteorologist monitors for signs of the first frost, as early as September πŸ˜‰

  103. zkotpen

    KHT,

    I just took a 2nd look at your triangle — you can estimate how long ago I took the 1st look from the time stamps.

    Your proposed point D assumes wave C is complete. This is not a good assumption. It may be complete, but it may not. If I had to bet the farm on an outcome, I’d bet that it’s not!

    (But I don’t have to bet the farm on an outcome, of course πŸ™‚ )

    Wave C could still exceed June’s peak, but not April’s. Then comes the real wave D, which would make both of your trendlines flatter — both get “violated”, but the triangle itself remains inviolate.

      1. Robert

        Hello Zkot. So you are saying that Gdx should break lower next week to complete a DCL and then rally? That makes sense however the daily cycle decline is just starting for miners. Gdx should actually retest the may lows I doubt it bottoms before that because it’s the next strong support. Everything between here and 21 is like air. This is why I was saying to Gary and Christian that u have to try and time the DCL to get out of dust because if e really is strong or even mildly strong it could erase much of the dust gains. So they should get out of dust and then try to rebuy at a lower price for the final ICL. The only way this would not work is if the miners blow through the may lows or of the bounce is very feeble. Then we would prbly get the Dec lows straight away

    1. KHT

      zkotpen

      One thing that is a certainty is that the market WILL tell us when it is ready to. Another certainty is, the market does not have to color with in the lines and often times walks all over our precious lines with out regard…:)

      I can assure you that no matter how confident I ever am with my analysis I will NOT bet the farm (and I own a small one), maybe just a shed or lean to, but not the farm….LOL

      1. Gary Post author

        One thing that is a certainty is that the market WILL tell us when it is ready to.

        If this were true everyone would be rich. πŸ™‚

        The market never tells anyone what’s it’s getting ready to do. It’s devious like that. But it does sound good so many people believe it.

        Right now I think the energy stocks are getting ready to produce a strong trend, but I’m pretty much the only person that believes it. Many percentage points will go by before anyone else is ready to believe. And then once they do it will be time for a correction.

        1. KHT

          Gary….I should have stated that a little differently. My meaning was intended to be more like, One thing that is a certainty is that the market WILL tell us when it is ready to, whether we are ready or not. In other words, it will tell us by doing. I can see how what I wrote could easily be misconstrued from my meaning.

          It would be nice if the market would send out a heads up in advance though….:)

  104. Christian

    Bobby D — I’ve been studying cycles for the past five years or so and follow 3 other Analysts which I trust implicitly. Gary is by far one of my favourites but my trades are a lot more refined* because I’ve been at it for 15 years or so and understand market psychology better than most.

    I admit the first 5 years where a bit of a whirlwind but the last 10 and especially the last 5, since I started introducing cycles and sentiment into my strategy, have been pretty awesome! So do me a favour and give credit where credit is due and stop being such a pineapple — you might learn something useful and make some money in the process πŸ™‚

    Cheers πŸ™‚

    *developed or improved so as to be precise or subtle.

    1. jake

      Sentiment may be a misnomer for the small mining sector, Apple as an comparison, it’s the composite operator who moves the market Livermore, as Gary has reiterated often.

    1. Christian

      I appreciate it Goild but in all honesty.. I just don’t have the time and even if I did, that piece of paper would get torn to shreds — meaning every word on that page would get scrutinized, misinterpreted and/or lost in translation, proven wrong and/or discredited in every possible way Lol!

      And in all honesty (yes, again).. I don’t mind throwing an idea here and there and busting people’s balls when necessary but other than that.. I’m good πŸ™‚ No one really wants to hear my BS anyway and in fact I’m starting to sound like Pedestrian (or Gary Haha) at the best of times, except that I post my trades in real time WITH charts for all to see.

      1. Oregon16

        Garry …………………..

        For the silver [bullion] investors, can we assume the same scenario for silver as gold. Do you expect silver to yet see an ICL to say, $16:00 to sub $16:00 level? Will the price action in silver mimic what’s expected for gold ? I’m not a trader but rather an investor and probably much longer term holder than most that post here.

        I guess what I’m asking is whether there will be a better time to purchase yet ahead, if we are yet to see an ICL in silver.

        Best Regards ……………………

        John.

  105. Alexandru Popovici

    Cotton has just confirmed its YC decline and retraced over 50% of its YC.
    Next week It should start the last DC in this YC to bottom (YCL) next month –> cotton will make a great long-term buy next after July15 on a daily swing low!!!

  106. Alexandru Popovici

    RAMPUNSEL: I know that theory of intermarket relationships says that USD and commodities are negatively correlated but I personally do not see it as a true statement for the recent history as to non-PM commodities.

  107. dboz

    Outside of Don, everyone seems to be thinking we are going to move down. It seems everyone is loaded on the sinking ship. I see so many extremes both ways. Those calling for 1400 and those for 1100. When it breaks, it will probably move far fast. Starting to think about adding some miners next week just in case we break strongly up. If we don’t break up soon, I think the metal sector is going to be dead for some time. Sub 1240 is not bullish. I understand Gary and what he is saying, but how do you get big money in when the technicals fall to hell.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you look at the weekly chart of GDX you can see the coil is breaking down. We should get a sharp move lower next week in miners.

      This is what has to happen to set the stage for a breakout from the base. We need to generate some extreme bearish sentiment.

      Remember the market behaves like a pendulum. The further it swings in one direction the more violent the reaction in the other. So forget this nonsense about technicals. Technicals don’t drive cycle lows. Sentiment does.

  108. jake

    There are always going to be bounces as the market gets ahead of its self. Actually sub 1240-1200 is bullish, as Gary has talked about the rubberband/pendulum effect.

  109. Goild

    dboz,

    I am hoping, and this is kind of bad, that JNUG will take off. GDXJ
    and JNUG have been strong recently. SM and BTC appears going down.
    It has been a while since the miners had a strong rally.
    So I am in JNUG.
    We should not forget that JNUG can do FANTASTIC things.

      1. desertsun999

        Gary, you have to ask yourself, as the dollar decreases in value and interest rates continue to rise, how much time do we really have left before implosion.

        1. Gary Post author

          It’s been my opinion for years that the end game would play out in the currency markets.

          If the dollar has begun a new bear market like I think then we are about to start the first inning of the end game once we get past the first bear market rally.

          1. Robert

            Gary is there a way to gauge when a daily cycle bottom hits in gold other than sentiment? I was wondering if the COT could be used. Does it usually hit a certain number of commercial shorts at a DCL? I want to time the bounce coming out of this DCL because it may be a strong one

          2. Gary Post author

            I used to be able to pinpoint bottoms almost perfectly. But there is now so much intervention in almost all markets, I just try to get “close enough”.

            There are multiple techniques that help. I pointed out one to Bill in Tokyo the other day about the volume in ERX and GUSH. He wasn’t able to overcome his emotions and make the trade but if he had he would have picked almost the exact bottom in energy stocks.

            Like I always say. the time to buy is when you are so scared it’s almost impossible to pull the trigger.

            The last time we saw that kind of panic in the gold market was last December. Right now a lot of traders are rushing in to buy because they are afraid they will get left behind. That is not the kind of sentiment that marks intermediate bottoms.

  110. desertsun999

    2017 Key Facts

    The U.S. government is estimated to collect $3.21T in tax revenues and spend a total of $3.65T in its 2017 budget, resulting in a deficit of $443B. The deficit is expected to be 2.6% of its total estimated GDP of $17T that year.

  111. jake

    Cheney to Treasury: “Deficits don’t matter”

    Former Treasury Secretary Paul O’Neill was told “deficits don’t matter” when he warned of a looming fiscal crisis.
    O’Neill, fired in a shakeup of Bush’s economic team in December 2002, raised objections to a new round of tax cuts and said the president balked at his more aggressive plan to combat corporate crime after a string of accounting scandals because of opposition from “the corporate crowd,” a key constituency.
    O’Neill said he tried to warn Vice President Dick Cheney that growing budget deficits-expected to top $500 billion this fiscal year alone-posed a threat to the economy. Cheney cut him off. “You know, Paul, Reagan proved deficits don’t matter,” he said, according to excerpts. Cheney continued: “We won the midterms (congressional elections). This is our due.” A month later, Cheney told the Treasury secretary he was fired.
    The vice president’s office had no immediate comment, but John Snow, who replaced O’Neill, insisted that deficits “do matter” to the administration.

  112. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Again, no blow thru, no straight away, no backing up trucks and no riding intermediate waves.

    Trend in miners, since December lows, is Sidways/up, i.e., consolidation rally.

    But the underlying trend is based on that word “consolidation” more than any directionality component. The bounce out of that low saw volatility expand, but then it has been contracting ever since late February. That’s Intermediate volatility. Daily volatility was oscillating, but it has also joined the contraction anti-party since early May. So far, I see no indication of a change in that volatility trend.

    And by the way, said change in volatility trend, where the consolidation is a RALLY is signaled from a PEAK, not a move down or bottom. I haven’t seen that signal yet. Haven’t really seen a signal of wave C of triangle top, coupled with my observation that wave C is often a double zig zag.

    Finally, about a daily cycle “next week” — we need to hold that part very, very loosely. Your comment made me go back and look — “next week”, the last time around, lasted from April 25 to May 4 — so it was a long week, during which DUST went up about 15%. And not straight up, either. So it was a long and bumpy week for the GDX moved down into its DCL. I realize this time is likely one degree smaller — I believe it is “X of C” whereas last time it was B (at the same degree as C, in “X of C”), and also that the larger trend is up (last time, the smaller and larger trend were both pointing down).

    If that is confusing, the conclusion is: Last time, the daily cycle decline was pointing in the same direction as the cycle one degree higher; this time, it is not, as stated last weekend: This daily cycle decline is a wave B or X (same effect: Trap, or “correction to the correction”). And one degree higher than that: Yearly cycle rally. In other words, the three trends, daily, intermediate, and yearly cycles do not appear to be aligned, resulting in a twisty, turny bottom.

  113. zkotpen

    KHT,

    “Trend lines and triangles may be artifacts”

    Indeed — this is why I like this blog — “artifacts”. Never thought of them that way.

    I am a scientist, and as such, I pull my measurements directly from natural or social phenomena.

    I realize that units of measure, apparatus, and experiments are also artifacts. But still, assuming I’ve got those things properly chosen, I am guided by the principle of trying to minimize the “arti” and maximize the “facts”. To that end, I can only try my best. And I promise to try my best.

    “Inch” and “foot” and “quart” and “Fahrenheit” and “pound” are ancient/medieval units of measure. “Meter” and “liter” and “celsius” and “gram” are modern, scientific artifacts. You can guess which units I prefer, though I am fluent in both.

    I did notice that you’ve included the origin of the triangle — that can be misleading. Elliott’s technique for drawing triangles is to draw two trendlines: A-C and B-D. No problem with sketching in an idea of a triangle for illustration purposes — so long as you keep in mind that wave D is not complete, and wave C is probably not complete. In other words, if you use the triangle as a guide, great; if you let it “triangle you in” πŸ™‚ — you will get “fooled by randomness”… so long as you know that you may need to expand your triangle, and that it remains valid until either point A (February) or point B (May) is exceeded.

  114. desertsun999

    Is Illinois going to be the first state to file bankruptcy?

    Illinois has compiled $14.6 billion in unpaid bills. It’s running a deficit of $6 billion, and its pension liability has soared to $130 billion.
    That’s not the worst of it. The state’s nearly two-year failure to pass a budget has sent its bond ratings careening toward junk level, downgraded a staggering eight notches below most other states.
    With university enrollments plummeting, large-scale social service agencies shuttering and the Chicago Public Schools forced to borrow just to stay open through the end of this school year, Illinois is beginning to devolve into something like a banana republic .

  115. dboz

    ETF investors liquidated a total of 13 tonnes of gold out of GLD as of June 14, the largest net daily outflow since December 14, 2016, after the dollar and US real rates showed renewed signs of strength in the wake of the Fed’s meeting.

    Gold bottomed the next day on Dec 15th and rallied strongly. So far the low of this downtrend is on June 15th.

  116. Steffmeister

    Here is my prediction for the coming month. Gary says “do not look at charts” I say, do look at the charts!

    We are at a multiyear trendlne, above=bullish, below=bearish. Are we above or below, tough question.
    Using basic EW skills, I am missing a final wave down to complete this trend, look at the chart:

    http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4284/34990158230_5daa107011_b.jpg

    If we zoom in it’s hard to tell if we are above or below, a sharp correction that pierced the trendline, then a retest from below. I think Gary is correct when he wrote that we are going down next week in miners.

    http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4202/35377053375_1c72e76b60_b.jpg

    The swing down is a third repetition of the two downswings in the C-wave. I just copied the length and angle to measure the time and price to end this downswing, so yes mid July looks good imo.

    1. Robert

      Yes Gary is prbly right about miners going down this week the problem is how ? How long do you think it will take for Wave 5 to complete? The problem with dust is it decays so if the move down is choppy dust won’t gain much

  117. Pedestrian

    I am looking at late August and early September to reenter my mining shares as we should be at/near the bottom at that time. At the moment I am still on the sidelines and just biding my time since what is taking place in metals is mostly a tail-chasing affair with not a lot of great opportunity. So its better to just let this consolidation play out to its natural conclusion. Looks like I didn’t miss much in the past month on this site anyway. Christian is bigger bore than ever and Don’s posts are 98% wasted breath. Hopeless traders who need an enema to go with those strokes they so desperately crave. Ciao!

  118. zkotpen

    Ped!

    Gr8 2 have U back m8!

    I look forward to your battles with Don & Christian!

    I concur, at last… I recall useless blowhard who used to post on the premium site: Don Zucker. So now, I just give this new version a “page down” — glad you are back to add to the humor, though I will still be paging down thru your arch rival’s posts.

    Hmmm… now why won’t miners take 4 months to go down?

    That is… 4 months after they reach their peak!

    I don’t understand the hurry.

    I doubt the market will operate on that basis.

    It hasn’t even completed the consolidation yet, much less commenced its drop…

  119. zkotpen

    I don’t know why people’s prognostications are in such a hurry, when the market moves more slowly than that.

    I got my patience from watching continental drift, glacial advance and retreat, and such.

    The Andes mtns are still rising, and I’m curious to see how they turn out millions of years hence.

    Also visited the Moreno glacier two different years. Dynamic, but slow-moving.

    Compared to those geographical features, the markets move very fast.

    But not nearly as fast as people think they are going to move.

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