161 thoughts on “Weekend Report

  1. Gary Post author

    Weekly swing highs across the board for the metals sector. The entire sector has closed below the 10 week moving average. Short term sentiment hasn’t reached bearish extremes yet either.

    It’s dangerous to play this from the long side at this point.

    1. Robert

      Maybe but the GDXJ is showing much more strength and still has not broken down despite the breakdown in GDX and the other juniors. I have been pointing this out and said that the GDXJ might disappoint gold bears. Its retracement might be much shallower than GDX

      1. Gary Post author

        You’re kidding yourself if you think the juniors are going to be immune to an ICL in gold.

  2. jacob2

    Oil, resting right on support here. Fridays action was encouraging as I’m long but we shall see. Remember reading an April article in Barrons by John Lorge Wells Fargo’s commodity analyst who believes we started a 20 year bear market in commodities in 2011. Only 13 years left. OBviously this includes gold and oil. Dimissed it off-hand (confirmation bias) but if oil does not kick in here right now, he may be right.

  3. earthkitten

    Gary is right. GDXJ will get smacked, smothered &
    covered. You can take that to the bank or the Waffle
    House. The choice is yours.

    1. Robert

      Ok You might be right. Since JDST is much lower than DUST I might buy some JDST tomorrow

  4. Christian

    “Gold and Silver formed weekly swing highs, and prices should be working their way down into the 6-Month low. The bull market breakouts in 1986 and 2002 are similar to the current setup. If the correlation advances, we should see gold break above the long-term trendline later this year, confirming a bull market.

    Metals and Miners should drop a little further next week to test their respective trendlines. If the trendlines hold, we could see an intervening bounce out of a daily cycle low. The bounce, if we see one, should rollover and generate a failed daily cycle.”

    – Courtesy of goldpredict.com

    1. Christian

      His analysis and trading style is a lot more conservative than mine, but so far his analysis of the Gold Market as well as the Miners falls right in line with my own and what Gary’s been advocating for over the past couple of months now 🙂 It’s a good sign folks — we’re right on track..!

      1. Robert

        Definitely conservative “A little”. lol GDXJ hasnt even dropped yet I think it will be a big drop for miners. Its the bounce out of the DCL that is key. If its strong it can wipe away most of DUST gain so you might have to try time the DCL, sell your DUST and then buy back the dip in DUST. That way you avoid the decay

  5. earthkitten

    Good move Robert. I went long JDST at the close
    Friday. It has a lot of room to run.

    1. Robert

      Good move too. I think I will buy the JDST even if it gaps up on the open. The downside should be limited now

  6. Alexandru Popovici

    I have no reason to go long now – I have no signal, EURUSD is still far from 1.1235 and it may well be charting a bearish two/three-method pattern to drive it into 1.10 turf by Wednesday which would decimate gold indeed.
    So, I am awaiting my signal; no signal = no entry long gold.

  7. Gary Post author

    I’m going to make the call. Oil has bottomed. Gold has topped. The gold:oil ratio will now trend in favor of oil for awhile.

    I’m going to be correct on all my calls but since most traders don’t have the patience to let any trade work almost no one will make any money off the calls.

    Now let me stress this again. DO NOT SHORT THE STOCK MARKET.

    Wait for the correction and once it happens, buy.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar needs to trade above 97.52 this week to complete a weekly swing. Once we have that I’ll officially call the bottom in the dollar as well.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’ll make another prediction.

        At some point gold will need to bounce to give us the pivot to construct the cycle down trend line.

        Everyone here will freak out when that happens and try to again call the bottom.

        1. Robert

          Its that bounce that im afraid of. How strong will it be? It could do alot of damage to DUST/JDST

          1. Gary Post author

            You need to invest in real estate. The stock market is not for you. You panic on every little wiggle in the wrong direction.

          2. Gary Post author

            You don’t have the emotional control necessary to play options.

            You are on the quickest path to destroying your portfolio.

  8. Goild

    Good morning,

    Hopefully indeed oil has bottomed.


    Thanks for your reply. Whenever you can toss in bit of your trading wisdom and post entries.

    JNUG continues resilient. It will spring back shortly.

  9. Gary Post author

    Once GDX finally broke through support at $22.50 it was all over. The next stop will be the May low, then the December low.

    Patience will pay off. Wait till the weekly charts get oversold again. Then we will get our buy spot sometime in July.

  10. Goild

    XAU is about to kiss support. XAU and GDX are departing from the averages while GDXJ is on the averages.
    Perhaps by mid week we will see a bounce.

  11. Bigdaddy

    Gold is down nicely today and I’m not making a any money on DUST. yet. From what I am seeing, everyone here thinks the miners are going to fall so I should be OK. If Christian is still holding, so am I.

  12. zkotpen

    Yep, gold will need to bottom — maybe in the 1230s is how it’s lookin’ so far.

    Intraday cycle low only (Gary’s prediction), or intraday & daily cycle low — that’s still up in the air, as this is not a strongly trending market.

    Hmmm… didn’t we get a weekly swing high off the April peak, too?

    At any rate, daily & intraday resistances are converging round the 1237 area so far.

  13. zkotpen


    “Yes I panic because I also play options”

    Two factors at work in markets: One is the Economics, the other is Psychology. Not market Psychology, but one’s own Psychology.

    Gary says you don’t have the Psychology.

    I’ll chime in, you don’t have the Econ skills, either.

    Either learn those skills, or contract them!

    1. Robert

      You guys dont have any clue about options so quit babling. Drawdowns on options are like 30% on these little wiggles so it is a different game. Nothing to do with economics. And of course psychology will be effected if you see minus 50% in 1 day

      1. Gary Post author

        That’s why I said you don’t have the emotional control to trade options. Any little wiggle in the wrong direction can shave off 20-50%.

        Playing directional bets on options is like going all in on a poker hand. You either have the brass balls to let it ride or you don’t.

        If you don’t have conviction and stainless steel balls then you have no business playing options.

        And if you do you better be prepared to lose it all from time to time. So don’t bet more than you can afford to lose.

          1. Gary Post author

            Stick with the stock market. You can use TQQQ and UPRO. The trades are much safer as the PPT has your back in that market.

  14. zkotpen

    … and for the record, I ain’t buyin’ dollar-yen, either!

    (not exactly selling it, either — but the bounce looks way too corrective — daily chart is overbought)

  15. JJHarmen

    Gary, DUST isn’t moving very quickly towards your break even point. I guess if GDX drops to the May lows, break even finally? Also, how much more does ERX have to go down before you give up on that one? Never? You would appear to be long on easily made predictions but short on positive results.

    1. Gary Post author

      When both of those trades are finished (5-8 weeks from now) you will have to eat those words and you’ll just look silly.

      I’m going to remind you of this in a couple of months.

      This is why almost none of you make any lasting gains in the market. You are all short term gamblers. You never let anything work. Let’s face it almost none of you have the patience to let a trade work and produce the big bucks.

      Can anyone imagine Buffet, or Rogers, or Soros, or Ray Dalio trading like you clowns????

  16. Christian

    Last time I told Robert he didn’t have the emotional capacity to be trading; Robert got mad. Today, others are chiming in and saying the same.. go figure 😏

    1. Robert

      Not sure about miners anymore. Gold dropped overnight and we have a 1 buck pop in gold and look on the miners flying. We are starting to see divergence again where gold sells off and its having no effect on miners. Maybe the miners have or are near to there DCL. They are bottoming before gold

  17. Gary Post author

    The time to buy metals will be when the weekly stochastics get oversold.

    Remember back in December when I told everyone that the time to sell metals would be when gold got overbought? Almost no one listened to me and they panicked out at the bottom.

  18. JJHarmen

    Like I said, you are long on predictions. GDX now up, DUST down on the day, and falling fast.

    1. Gary Post author

      Read my comment above.

      My predictions come true.

      You could have bought energy at any point in the last month and end up making a bundle. But no one did. They were worried about trying to time a perfect entry. In the end they won’t make anything.

      1. victor

        oh Gary, I’m in oil and oil servicing stocks till my neck, buying dips. Expecting rally, but it will be my last long trades in oil. Shorting – yes. I was so impressed by those article … end of Big Oil. Really. I guess it’s time to refocus on something more progressive. Your previous prediction abt Biotech should play out eventually…

        1. Gary Post author

          I think it will but I’m nervous about biotech. Trump keeps beating on it and I’m afraid congress may do something stupid like try to regulate the sector.

      2. roadrunner

        why should someone have bought energy a month ago? If i bought a month ago i would still be underwater today. I could buy today, no? In fact if i bought energy today and sell when you sell, I will make at least 10% more than you will, right?

        1. Gary Post author

          Did you have a working crystal ball a month ago and knew you could buy lower?

          Folks there really is no such thing as trading in hindsight.

  19. Bigdaddy

    Christian, is DUST a buy at 30.89? If you are holding then I am assuming it is. I want to average down while the price is still down. What do you say?

    1. Christian

      Miners are a bit of a one trick pony nowadays.. They like to whipsaw in every direction to confuse everyone. If you wanna cost average down with DUST you certainly can but just be aware that we’re due for a bounce soon 🙂

      By the way.. Gary’s following the Weekly Stochastics and that’s a pretty good strategy if you’re patient enough to let the market play out.

      1. Don

        Christian: If we are “due for bounce”, why are you not locking in your profits? Just asking.

  20. Don

    Last week the media was making a big deal about the fall of the tech stocks and the big five. Of course, today they are going up as the S&P makes new highs. The algos know how to read headlines and screwing the retail customer is what the game is all about.

    Gary is afraid to buy the biotecks as they surge upward and focuses instead on the dead in the water energy sector. We are all retail customers.

    1. Gary Post author

      Damn why didn’t you tell us on Friday that bio was going to rally today?

      We have huge gains in the stock portfolio. I’m holding a small core position but it’s getting late enough in the daily cycle that I’m not going to chase this move. It could be another smart money trap just like the rally in miners a couple of weeks ago.

      The next DCL will be due sometime in early to mid July. That’s when I will go in heavy again.

      It’s all about risk reward in real time. Not this nonsense hindsight trading that you people seem to believe in.

  21. Ralph Wiederzane

    While everybody argues about the direction of the big move they expect, there is another possibility, one that we just continue this generally sideways, range bound trading for awhile longer (months?).

    After all, nobody has been correct despite what they claim, Gary has been stopped out of several ideas lately, and it’s not as if buy and holders are suffering as people like to think. It’s just nothing markets, that’s all.

  22. Don

    Using weekly stochastics as a trading tool is a good way to get beat up badly. They can remain pinned at extremes for several weeks causing an investor to suffer significant draw downs Useless.

    1. Gary Post author

      Drawdowns are not long term losses.

      Drawdowns are just part of the business.

      If you think you are going to be able to avoid drawdowns you are sadly mistaken and in fact you will just end up destroying your portfolio stopping out every time you don’t make a perfect entry.

      I cringe when I hear people say stuff like buying XYZ with a tight stop. What they are really saying is I’m going to guarantee a loss on this trade.

      1. Don

        Gary: Agreed on the draw down issue, I ride out draw downs all the time. Also agree on the stop loss issue. Your most recent stop losses on DUST are a good example of the folly of using stops. What I was pointing out (that you handily ignored), was the unreliability of using stochastics as a trading tool. They can remain pinned to extremes for very long periods and then reverse only after a serious draw is so deep under water that it is never recovered.

        1. Gary Post author

          Don’t forget we re entered at a better price than we exited so our stop didn’t hurt us, it helped us.

          And one should use other tools besides just the weekly stochastics. When the cycles and sentiment also point to an impending bottom then buy oversold stochastics.

        2. RetireYoung

          I don’t think Gary meant to not use stops, he said don’t use tight stops. Defining your risk is essential.

    2. Christian

      It’s one of MANY tools Don.. You’re suppose to use in conjunction with other tools/indicators in order to increase the probability of a good trade. There’s no ‘magic pen’ out there.. if there was, we would all be rich by now.

    1. AT

      That’s a good entry. You’ll actually show profit when Gary/smt will break even at 34. I’ll hold my DUST 33+ average until Gary will call the ICL bottom. Good luck to all.

  23. Don

    The S&P has made new highs today but the SPY ETF did not, not even close. That is an unusual divergence. but I don’t know if it has any meaning.

  24. Bigdaddy

    We all could learn could learn something from Christian’s disciplined trading skills. He rarely uses stops, I think anyway.

    1. Christian

      I use stops occasionally, especially when trading a triple leverage (ERX is a great example] but right now I’ve got plenty of margin with my DUST shares so I’m not too concerned.

  25. RetireYoung

    Wow. Lots of stress today. Ignore the noise. Define risk have a strategy stick to it. Goal of consistency not profiting on every trade.

  26. Robert

    I bought jdst at the open today and I’m losing so far but will be patient and give it till Friday to play out good luck

    1. Gary Post author

      A better strategy would be to hold it until the weekly stochastics reach oversold on gold.

      1. Robert

        I would but as you see im not as confident as you. I don’t like the fact that gold is down and miners are up so I will take what I can get. If miners were to have a big fall we should be seeing weakness not strength like today

        1. Gary Post author

          The miners just fell extremely hard last week and got stretched far below the 10 DMA. They will need to consolidate before the next leg down.

          You also have to allow that big money may be propping them up today so they can add to their shorts.

          You can’t trade this sector by what’s happening day to day on the charts. There are way to many games being played in this sector.

          You saw how the banks manufactured a rally two weeks ago to sucker in longs so they could hand them the bag. Do you think this was the last time they will screw with this sector.

          You are trying to trade one of, if not the most difficult sector in the market and you are way too emotional for that.

          You really should just stick to the stock market if you want to have more money in your account next year than you have now.

  27. JJHarmen

    I use investing.com and they show the SPY ETF with a high of 245.01 on June 9 with June 13 and 14 higher than today’s 244.56. I see Stockcharts showing today as the high at 244.50. What the hell? This needs to be resolved.

  28. Don

    Okay, I found a partial answer to the discrepancy of ETF highs and lows being different depending on what charting platform one is using. Apparently, it depends on what exchange the data is being sourced from. What this also means is that stop runs will be shown on a chart from one exchange but not another. This issue also occurs frequently with FOREX trading where not even the closing prices agree!

    One would think there would be a single unified data source but that is clearly not the case and example of where the lack of enforceable regulations have made it tough for the retail investor to thrive in rigged markets. I still don’t know what charting source is ‘right’. What a mess.

  29. JJHarmen

    Nice leg work Don but what a crock of shit this is. We can’t trust the data we are getting is what it boils down to.

  30. Bigdaddy

    I use Reuters real time charts and I see SPY topping on June 9th at 245.01. Spy has not made a new high today. mine is the right one. Stockcharts sucks. case closed.

  31. Robert

    Big break down in gold. Miners not catching up yet. Maybe they are waiting on 1240 to break before next leg up, odd action today

  32. Bigdaddy

    ok Christian, we are back into the green on DUST. I hope you bought more like I did. Gold is getting destroyed.

    1. Christian

      Remember folks.. Precious Metals and Miners don’t always move in lockstep. That’s why it’s important to be nimble 🙂

        1. Robert

          I think what is happening is the miners sniffing out a DCL soon. They will go down but not by much. After the bounce that I have been talking to you about that is prbly when the real big drop will happen in miners. As you can see today there is alot of strength when compared to gold. Whenever miners behave like that then we know they are bottoming

          1. Christian

            Not necessarily Robert. Miners could surprise you with a gap down tomorrow and beat Gold to the punch! That’s why it’s important to be nimble. And that’s also why obsessing over every wiggle is essentially a waste of time.

            We’re seeing it today as Miners are whipsawing up and down within that consolidation zone.


          2. cazabrujas

            Also, you need to take into account that the rally in the USD and the decline in the Euro are just starting. The party has only just started, gold and miners will be lower in a few weeks.

        2. Robert

          So you are viewing today as some sort of consolidation in DUST and then it breaks up tomorrow? But then why tom or later in the week? Gold alrdy broke down

  33. Nada

    @Alexandru Popovici

    I see you modified your statement this morning on EURUSD, most likely my previous post made a lasting impression on you. I have little faith that your currency pair babble will stop, and a lot of faith in your continued horrid analysis. You have been shooting off at the mouth for years on this site, and it needs to be highlighted that you are a very dangerous asset to this community. Calls like the “Great Scorch”, gold going to the moon after FOMC, etc are just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to your terrible calls. You shorted the market after the election and were ran over by a mack truck. Please just stop.

    1. bill

      Good points, any! and I mean ANY! investment advice here or anywhere for that matter should be cautionary, we don’t know each other from a hole in the wall, what makes you think anyone here ( besides the host who earns a living ) has your best interests in mind.

  34. jacob2

    BIotechs vs. oil( own both). We know who wins today. A 20 year commodity bear market that began in 2011, interesting.

  35. Kruzoe

    With 30 mins left to trade, I’ll keep my 2K Dust for another day but raise my stop to 29.90. My stop will probably trigger if gold gaps up to-morrow. So, keeping fingers crossed.
    BD: hope you place a stop on your Dust.

  36. Don

    Natural Gas is taking a licking today, down 4.4%. Commodities are not doing well considering that the economy is supposedly doing well.

  37. m0ntana

    Gary has been beating drum about Energy for last month and a half and been sideways to down since. Maybe I should treat him as my contrarian indicator.

      1. Steffmeister

        Yes of course it is! Tomorrow is the day before summer solstice 🙂

        Lets see what happens tomorrow ….

  38. Robert

    Not sure what to make of todays action in miners. Anyone else has other opinions besides Gary & Christian?

    1. Steffmeister

      Lets see what happens tomorrow Robert, I think we are close to support and resistance in markets …

        1. Steffmeister

          Yes but first we will get a monkey hammer moment, or it’s already here. I am a little bit suspicious, I think I just solved Mr Merlins riddle. I might be totally wrong of course.

          We will find out tomorrow, good night from Sweden.

        2. Nada

          Robert, you are in DUST position? Steffmeister is not saying what you think. He is saying close to support in PM’s and resistance in SM. So he is suggesting a possible short-term bounce in metals. I would expect its nothing to get in a fuss about, but the there will be up days in this process.

    2. bill

      I’ll chim in as one who has lost more than enough chasing that sector… RUN AND RUN FAST… money can be made yes, it’s the timing more often that sucks…I’ve liquidated the sector… note 10 years I’ve played the miners and I’m tired of the emotions and the chase…

  39. JJHarmen

    Gary/Christian and Bigdaddy had a good day with DUST up 1.4%. I had a bad day with GDX , down .54% and Gary had a bad day with ERX, down 2.0% .

  40. Don

    I am taking a draw down on silver that is starting to get uncomfortable. My gold miner positions are not too bad but will look like shit if Gary is right about how much further they have to drop. Thankfully, if gold and the miners are in bull markets, then all timing mistakes will be corrected, as Gary has pointed out many times. I think he is correct on that although that may not be true for the high decay triple leveraged miner ETFs. Fortunately, none of my positions are triple leveraged.

  41. Gary Post author

    Now traders are going to get a lesson in how gullible they are. The banksters propped up the miners today so retail would buy and give them a chance to load more shorts.

    Most of you just have no business trading this sector. Unless you can stay one step ahead of the banksters (which clearly almost none of you can) you should stick to the stock market.

    1. Robert

      You know I admire your confidence but I dont like how you, Christian and others are saying ppl don’t have no business in the stock market or that we don’t have what it takes. We are still trying to learn. Today gold sold off handily and miners were unchanged and so we are just trying to understand what’s happening. All u guys are doing are being macho and calling everyone idiots lol

      1. Gary Post author

        You are too emotional to trade the metals. This is not the sector to “learn” in.

        I’ve given you the best advice you are going to get from anyone on this blog. Change your focus to the stock market. If you take that advice then you will make money over the next 12 months. Probably a shit ton of money. If you ignore that advice you will almost certainly lose money.

        Don’t kid yourself, almost no one on this blog is making money in the metals. They like to pretend they are but a year from now 99% of them will have less money in their account than they do now.

        Hell I’m struggling to make money and I know the metals market better than almost anyone. But the simple fact is it’s caught in a volatile back and forth trading range. Those are tough to make any lasting gains in no matter what kind of BS you hear from the Monday morning quarterbacks. If these guys had to post real time entries and exits along with position size you would see that almost no one is actually making any money. Let’s face it, if these guys were half as good as they claim to be they would be managing multi million dollar hedge funds. None of these guys would have anywhere near the returns they are claiming if they were actually managing other peoples money and had to suffer through withdrawals every time they had a drawdown.

        Financial blogs are places for amateur traders to strut around and fluff up their peacock feathers, bragging about their day trading prowess. But none of them really make any lasting gains in the market. Have you ever hear of a billionaire day trader?

        1. Robert

          Nobody exvept Christian lol. I guess you are right, stock market looks like it has Alrdy completed DCL. I will buy some tqqq tomorrow

          1. Nada

            Robert, this is not the place to buy stocks. Wait for correction and yes it may take some time, but now is not a good risk/reward opportunity. Stick with unleveraged.

        2. Christian

          I don’t mind fluffing up the feathers once in a while but I do pretty well overall.. And have no interest in becoming a Billionaire or managing other people’s money so where does that put me Gary? D’you honestly think I’m wasting time on this blog..? Just curious.

          1. Gary Post author

            Oh I think there are a few people that might make money.

            But one or two trades don’t mean anything. I want to see how people do over 2-5 years. That means calling entries and exits in real time with position size.

            One can win 10 times in a row with small bets and then make one big bet that goes wrong and lose is all.

            Anyone that cares to take the challenge, make your calls in real time along with position size and I’ll try to keep track of actual results and we’ll see if anyone here really is making any long term gains.

  42. Goild

    Tomorrow might be a miners hammer.
    The play would be to load JNUG at noon.
    We shall see.

    1. Christian

      The play would be to load up on JNUG when Gold confirms a DCL Goild. And that’s unlikely gonna happen tomorrow.

  43. zkotpen

    Ralph Wiederzane,

    I have been correct — what have I been posting:

    Sideways, consolidation rally,

    Sideways, consolidation rally,

    Volatility squeezing. Intermediate volatility contracting. Now daily volatility contracting.

    Contracting, squeezing, sideways, consolidation.

    Been singing that song for months, humming at first, but then more as the consolidation starts to show signs of moving to its pointy end.

  44. zkotpen


    “We are still trying to learn.”

    You show no evidence of learning.

    If you have children, see if one or more has aptitude for and interest in math.

    If yes, then just encourage them to pursue and develop in that direction. Calculus I & II as a minimum; Diff Eq helps, but optional. I know a biz major who sheepishly told me they took “business calculus”. I asked if it included a semester each of derivatives and integrals. They said yes, it did. I told them, that’s good enough. And you don’t even have to be good at it. Just need to have that understanding on your brain. Calculus has engendered the modern world, because all modern science is built upon that, and modern science lifts humans out of the food chain.

    Social science — soft science — is only soft because its practitioners are slow to let go of their bias and embrace the math.

    Geometry, trigonometry, and statistics are also necessary.

    In all my world travels, every person I’ve asked has told me they are required to take classes in their native language every year of primary and secondary school. University English is also required — 4 semesters, for all majors.

    By contrast, math requirements at secondary and university levels are weak.

    And for social scientists, they are extremely weak — they are downright medieval.

    Unless you are going to knuckle down and reformat your brain on math, as well as language and whatever your particular area of interest is, your best chance at learning is to learn what I’ve written above, and encourage math learning in your progeny, to the extent they show aptitude and interest (forcing people to learn something doesn’t work too well). And even if they don’t show aptitude, everybody needs the same level of basic math understanding as we do for spoken and written language.

    3 major inventions separate the humans from the rest of the animal kingdom:

    1. Spoken language

    2. Written language

    3. Calculus

    I have written the above myself.

    My qualifications: I’m a social scientist, with a strong math background.

    1. RetireYoung

      Abstract thought. Keep the cycle analysis posts coming Zkot. I am new to studying cycles and enjoying it. Brief background: I’m an environmental scientist and have been trading stocks for around 10 years.

  45. Alexandru Popovici

    1) what change in my view?! I do believe gold rises above 1300. I said that price action in EURUSD was rendering it less likely to see it hitting 1.1235 so that I had no entry signal … YET.
    2) this rise of SM has surprise me indeed – history indicated a SCorch was due before a rise.
    3) yet I see gold further up, crude oil and energy still to head to lower lows before bottoming next month, south African currency down (went long usdzar at 13 today) etc etc
    4) you are right: I should stop writing on the blog and this is my last comment.
    Thank you for your good idea! It’s not worth it, it takes time.
    Before ending: get rid of that skeleton; it makes you look like a poor fellow who all he has is to provide a sense of awe or of rebelness to draw attention while lacking substance.

    1. Christian

      Alex — For the life of me I dunno why you are so stubborn. Gold has a date with an ICL first AND THEN we’ll be heading back up to $1300.

    2. Nada

      Thanks Alex. I will hold you to your word on not posting.
      Somewhere, someone will be saved from your dreadful analysis. This is a great day in blog SMT history my friends. Ding dong the witch is dead.

  46. zkotpen

    Thanks Robert.

    Gary keeps suggesting Real Estate — your social skills would work wonders there.

    And you could hire out the math to a trusted Accountant.

    There are only 4 ways to make a fortune. Financial markets are one; real estate is another.

    Financial markets require some thought mechanism to remove subjectivity. The only 2 I’m aware of are math and meditation.

  47. zkotpen

    I wrote in the morning that gold’s daily and intraday SUPPORT levels were converging in the 1230s.

    Looking at the weekly chart, I can see a similar convergence between yearly and intermediate RESISTANCE near or a little above 1300.

    USDJPY is more or less an upside down version of this.

    GDX is a bit more volatile on the shorter term setup (daily and intraday), but the yearly and intermediate volatility continue to contract.

  48. zkotpen


    “Gold has a date with an ICL first AND THEN we’ll be heading back up to $1300.”

    This is not a foregone conclusion. Intermediate and yearly cycles are both corrective at present, neither is strongly trending.

    So whereas I tend to agree with Alex that first 1300 for YCH, then ICL = YCL, I also realize that these medium term trends are somewhat in flux.

    Normally, a top will generate a signal for a move down as you suggest, and I just haven’t seen a clear signal as of yet.

    Same holds true for a bottom generating a signal for the larger move up — that was December.

    What pushes me into the 1300 first then ICL camp is, wave C of triangle is often a double zig zag, and I believe gold is in a multi-year triangle consolidation rally.

    So the above, and my previous post take into consideration five successive fractals.

    You could add a sixth: Decade bear market.

  49. Gary Post author

    Folks this is going to boil down to the dollar. If it has completed an intermediate degree bottom (I think it has) then the dollar is about to rally strongly as big money starts to flood in in anticipation of the bottom. That would have the potential to cause a very strong move down in gold.

    There is a volatility coil on the weekly charts of GDX and it is breaking lower out of the coil. I think the odds are good we end up with a big aggressive move lower in miners by the close Friday.

    1. jake

      GDX could be waiting for an over night bounce at 1240 in gold, then continue down in to expiry week.

    2. desertsun999

      Gary, the last time the pm’s were in a consolidation like this the market makers used the dollar/pm inverse relationship against investors. In the 2003 consolidation silver did not trade inverse to the dollar except for the last two month’s of the year. PM bull markets do not like anyone riding them for very long. You can count on any relationship/correlation there is to be used against investors to have the lowest participation rate as possible. The short to intermediate term is mad max territory. There are no rules, no relationships, no correlations or ratios that are going to hold hard and true.

  50. zkotpen


    Two observations:

    1. Actually, it’s more like USDJPY. The dollar/gold correlation is unreliable. Here’s the gold chart, with all other indicators removed, except those 2 correlations, which I’ve place above the chart itself 🙂


    2. Friday’s close seems a little premature.
    Though I will be looking for hints of it all this week… and next, and so on, til I see something.
    Just does not look imminent — yet!
    Palobar suggested 11-17 July — that makes sense to me… I think he had that range of dates in mind for a bottom. It is making more and more sense to me as a potential top in gold.

  51. Steffmeister

    I think Gary and other summer low fans are wrong. You know the saying …

    “If everybody thinks the same then nobody is thinking”

    I stared at charts yesterday and I think we are very close to a bottom in precious. Just look at last summer solstice.

    The argument that the dollar is about to rally, mmm not a fan. Maximum upside in the dollar is less than 6% (a double top at 103) and that scenario could take as long as 10months to play out. I think the dollar is more or less irrelevant to the gold price going forward.

    Within 24hours we are about to turn around imo, or it’s safer to go long gold.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is the problem with trying to extrapolate sentiment from a financial blog filled with emotional day traders.

      The real intermediate term sentiment in gold is dead neutral at 46% bulls.

      Most ICL’s tend to occur with sentiment below 30% bulls. And they rarely ever occur until everyone is completely panicked… like the panic we’re seeing in oil right now.

  52. Americano

    Can you PLEASE do novelty TA/Sentiment coverage on Bitcoin?
    Bitstamp would be best to cover but GDAX & Bitfinex could also be easy for you. Way less complex than the ” paint drying” gold movement & without having to deal with the plunge protection team meddling.
    Would love to see your insights. Bitcoin new $3K+ ATH coming in July.
    $4500 by October.
    You’re so good with retrograde metals I wanna see how you nail Bitcoin because it’s just like metals markets……if they weren’t manipulated.

    1. Gary Post author

      Bitcoin is a ponzi scheme, and it’s in a bubble.

      I have no idea how to spot the top in this thing. So play that one at your own risk. If you stay too long you are going to get caught in the crash that always comes at the end of a bubble.

  53. Ralph Wiederzane

    Don’t look now, but oil is taking it in the cheeks again, breaking May’s lows. Of course, all one has to do is keep predicting it will turn higher and they will eventually be able to claim they were correct!

    1. Gary Post author

      Oil is very close to the bottom. The energy stocks are starting to diverge. We may even get the bottom today as an undercut.

  54. Goild

    Good morning,
    A good opportunity to load more USO shares.
    With oil hardly one can lose at these prices. The trade off is patience.

  55. Goild

    In the last three days JNUG has been in a channel around $17-$18.
    It appears that gold might be in a sideway mood today, if so JNUG could hit $18K today.
    NUGT was quite resilient yesterday and diverged from JNUG.
    Premarket volume in GLD and JNUG are half of yesterday.
    There is some good correlation on the highs and lows of GLD and USO.
    This suggest that when OIL bottoms, gold might be bottoming.

  56. dboz

    Gary says gold has a long way to go. Looks like oil does also. Oil ETFs are getting fried pre market. People keep calling the bottom in oil and it’s decline is accelerating. It’s in self perpetuating free fall now as there are no buyers. Gas is below 2 bucks in many places and summer travel season is here. There is a world oil glut. There is simply too much oil. The hype on the last run up is that we were having increased demand into peak oil production. There is now reduced demand and massive over production. The Middle East got greedy and screwed up. Their high prices accelerated technology and extraction of shale oil. The days of high oil prices are over. If oil can even get to 55 it would be considered a success. Many in the industry say 45-55 is the top. The techniques and technology have advanced and now the cost to get a barrel of shale has been greatly reduced. If the ME stops production, we will just produce more here. They are stuck with declining prices. Watch the thermodynamic collapse of oil. The days of oil making companies and countries wealthy is over. The only thing going to save it is a war or some other manufactured event. Retesting the lows is looking very possible. The undercut low Gary mentions has another huge leg down as a possibility.

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