1. zkotpen


    Finally somebody looking at correlation coefficient, rather than some idea in their head.

    If you look at EURUSD, it shows a weak negative correlation with gold, -0.61, for daily cycle (20 days). As for yearly EURUSD, it is not correlated with gold — just missing a very weak positive correlation by a whisker: +0.49 for the yearly cycle (200 days).

    … compare those figures with the ones you’ve posted. Yen is moving with gold, and EUR and USD have swapped their “usual roles” — the ones in people’s heads — for the time being.

    1. Mac

      Checking back in and still seeing people who are short-term technical traders trying to use longer term fundamental reasons to justify their positions. People really ought to know themselves and decide what type of trader that they are trying to be. Theoretical discussions about deflation or monetary policy or other macro issues should really be irrelevant to this group since most here rely on cycles or TA. In terms of discussing things like correlations, it really is useless unless you understand the rationale or the “WHY” behind the moves. I can show you periods where gold and USD have correlations near +/- .95 but if you don’t understand why they converge then you won’t be able to use these metrics to your advantage or anticipate future moves.

  2. Steffmeister

    A short break from vacation, yes I know I am addicted, golf isn’t up for another hour.
    According to skilled Elliott Wavers we are close to a 4th wave down.

    Trader Joe is a mighty skilled EW, have fun.

    His voice sounds so familiar, from a movie or something …

    From Norman Greene:
    Without a working knowledge of the Elliott Principles, stop setting is a dark art unlikely to ever be finessed, but failing an understanding of Fibonacci in markets, trading stops tend to fall into mechanical systems. But stops are so important! Getting out as fast as possible when a giant market hand is moving towards positions to take capital, and at the same time, not being gotten out when the move is merely consolidating and about to carry on further – this is a huge part of the required skillset for investment.

    Whatever anyone says, readers, please do yourself a favour and learn how Elliott Waves work – even if you never use them to trade – learn first and decide after you have learned thoroughly, and know what’s involved. There are actually very few rules in the system. When you have “got it”, you gain an added depth of understanding of this mysterious symbiotic predator-prey schitzophrenic feedback looped nonlinear thing that successful investment actually is. Elliott is not a magic panacea, it’s just another brick in the wall of skills you need.

  3. zkotpen


    Yes, I remember you called the gold DCL four weeks in advance — impressive!!

  4. mustang sally

    Good day Everyone.

    As we are talking correlations today, I like to look at hgd.to vs dusty. Dusty is not leading and hgd is giving us a sign, my marker stands at 10.43. When that breaks i think its time to leverage the on line gambling account. so selling dusty and moving into jdst.


  5. mustang sally

    Just browsing my favorite pick up sticks site, Golden girls, and I see the infamous Spock is talking the books, of course he has to he has suckered on that site into private placements, reminds me of the most famous swindler Jimmy. Sinclair.

    Mustang Sally

  6. HomerJ

    XLE and ERX still can’t get above that declining trendline… No surprise there, that trade is a dud, was from day one.
    API data comes out tonight and EIA tomorrow.

  7. JJHarmen

    Biotechs will lead stock market to new heights……..dead wrong…. Trumps fault
    Gold miners will test December lows …………………….Nope(so far)
    Dollar will experience mult-week rally driving gold down…. oops….. dammed central banker manipulation
    Energy sector is the place to make gains …………………….not working out so well just yet.
    Stock market about to enter bubble phase………………… for sure, absolutely… bank on it….hmmmm

    1. Nada

      Exactly. Just folks trying to sell a service to make money. Nothing wrong with that, but understand that if they were making money in the markets they would not be selling said service. Cheers

    2. Gary Post author

      In 2016 wben everyone knew a bear market was starting I knew it was only a 7 YCL and we still had more to go.

      In Dec. 2015 when everyone knew miners were going lower I pointed out it was only a manufactured stop run by tbe banks and was one of the first to call the baby bull (a term I coined by the way).

      At the last bottom in Dec. I was one of tbe few urging traders to get long miners.

      At the top In May I was one of the few urging traders to get out as miners were not confirming the higher highs in gold.

      When everyone was looking for 120 in the dollar late last year I kept warning that the 3 YCL was due this year.

      The problem is that like most retail traders you don’t have the patience to let anything play out. I’ve been making one outstanding call after another but as most of you can’t hold a trade for more than an hour much less a few days you are never able to profit from any of these calls.

      1. Christian

        You do make some pretty outstanding calls Gary but your timing is off and if you weren’t so stubborn about it, then that would be something that you would work to improve on.

        I find that when you get past a certain age it’s very hard to teach an old dog new tricks. Not intentionally trying to be a jerk here, just being open and honest.

        Ps: My dad who taught me the ropes long ago is the same — can’t get past himself.

        1. Bluebellkid

          That’s the thing – yes he made some good calls but he doesn’t point all the wrong ones he made in between. He even once said he was going to keep calling a bottom in the miners until it is right or something like that.

          1. Gary Post author

            Here’s the thing though. Yes everyone has losing trades. That’s a no brainer. The real question is whether the portfolio is going up, going down, or standing still over a significant period of time.

            The stock portfolio is up over 80% in the last year and a half.

            The metals portfolio is up over 150% in the last year and a half.

            The energy portfolio has been a dud. I think by the end of the year we’ll at least be in the green.

            Other than energy I’m proving that over time my strategy works and works exceptionally well.

        2. Gary Post author

          And this is what the challenge is all about. I think we’ve all gotten tired of hearing the endless prattle about how great everyone is at trading.

          I want real time calls with percentages, and I want it over a full year.

          As of right now there are only a few traders in the challenge that have been very accurate with all their calls and we’ve only been at it 3 weeks. Let’s see how well they are still doing 12 months from now.

          If you aren’t in the challenge then you have no businesses criticizing anyone’s trades.

          1. Christian

            Not sure if this was directed at me but I will point this out:


            Yes, your portfolio percentages speak volume but the methodology needs to be refined, especially when trading triple leverage. There isn’t a whole lot of room for mistakes, and a mis-timed trade could drag your portfolio down into the gutter for weeks on end as cycles continue to stretch and morph. Look at the Buck.

            And getting out of the gutter is harder than you think; I don’t give a damn how patient you think you are ๐Ÿ™‚

          2. Gary Post author

            Other than energy I think any portfolio manager in the world would be extremely happy with our returns over the last year and a half.

            Remember I’ve done this over an 18 month period. I didn’t just get lucky over a 2-4 week period.

            I’ll say it again. Enter the challenge. Give me price and percentage and we’ll see how well you do over a 12 month period.

    3. vin

      @ jjHarmen: You mean you did not buy jnug at $15 (before the reverse split of 4 to 1)? How are you going to make bundles. It is going to go to more that $2000/per share (after the split). Just wait.

      Most of you have don’t have the patience to hold.

      I am one of the smart ones who bought it more than @$44 (i.e. $11+ before the split).

      I am going to make so much money. I know. I just have to be patient. Right Gary?

      1. vin

        Having made it clear that not all Gary’s calls have been money makers, I would say he is good, as a whole.

        Once in a while I put a few pennies into his recommendations. As a whole I am slightly up in spite of jnug and few other negative ones.

        And, if his blow off scenario pans out then I will do even better. I have bought into his this prediction. It sort of makes sense. There is an incredible amount of liquidity out there. I have been “investing” for a long time. I have never seen anything even close to this.

        Good luck everyone.

        1. Gary Post author

          I have not been able to make money in energy.

          Stocks and metals I’ve made a lot of money, and done it in real time.

          No way I would ever trade currencies. What a cluster f**k that market is.

          I would like to trade biotech but I’m just worried the politicians may do something stupid. So I’m not willing to take the risk even though the reward may outperform the QQQ. I’ll be happy with what I can make in TQQQ.

    1. Don

      In the last five days, gold has risen 2.1%, GDX 2.7%. That isn’t exactly what I would call “weak”. There is a lot of skepticism towards the gold/miner rally.

    1. Ralph

      Looks like margin debt tops before the market tops. In that case, must be smart money using it.

  8. zkotpen


    “…but if you donโ€™t understand why they converge then you wonโ€™t be able to use these metrics to your advantage or anticipate future moves.”

    I am unable to speculate as to wherefores of a zillion things I don’t understand in life. I’m gonna have to press the “I accept” button. To think otherwise is to be “fooled by randomness”.

    I do not use correlations to predict future moves, just to describe relationships. I use technical analysis to indicate whether one market move looks more or less likely than another.

    For example, I had thought — prematurely — that the Euro had topped. But the technical indicators did not confirm, so I did not take action. Plain and simple. For some reason, I hadn’t bothered to look at the yearly and intermediate cycles of DXY and EURUSD. Then I looked at them — reminded me that the dollar was likely still completing its ICL and YCL. Which is a pretty dramatic affair.

    What’s interesting in this case is that GBP is showing more weakness today than even the dollar… as it showed less strength than the Euro during the long move down in USD since the beginning of the year.

  9. Bigdaddy

    Ok, I cannot contain myself any longer. Did Bigdaddy not issue a call to buy silver, told everyone NOT to buy oil stocks and to dump DUST and did Bigdaddy not buy SOXS yesterday? I realize it’s a bit early but so far, that’s four dead on calls . I am on fire and the wife thinks I am a genius. I sent her out shopping. Stay tuned for more winning ideas.

    1. Gary Post author

      Just enter the challenge and we’ll judge in real time whether you are winning or losing over time. ๐Ÿ˜

    1. Robert

      GDX will fall now ZKOT you are too confident. Majority of people in this room is now gold bull. I entered Garys contest and bought DUST

  10. AT

    Added more DUST another 50% DUST at 30.19 … and now wait for $ to move up and Gold down …

    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

    1. Spanky

      There is a risk that GDX and $XJY tag and maybe even exceed their 200 DMAs before reversing lower.

  11. zkotpen


    “I am guessing the BoJ is going to trigger a top in the yen on Thursday, and with it a top in gold, silver and the miners.”

    Good point — I had been thinking about the BoJ meeting. Your post reminded me to look up the time: 01:30 —

    If I had to guess, I’d say it’s also possible that GDX anticipates this move on Wednesday. Looks like it’s consolidating for another push up right now.

  12. zkotpen


    I agree — I’m looking at 1.16 area for ICH & YCH in the Euro. 93-94 area low for DXY.

  13. Bob

    It would be interesting to see how subscribers are stacking up against non-subscribers. We all have our own peculiarities however I depend on Gary to set the direction for me, while learning the “why”.

      1. Christian

        Robert — This chart is for ILLUSTRATION purposes. I wasn’t trying to project price.

        The big picture still hasn’t changed!! The US dollar is due for a bounce and Gold has a date with an ICL.. which will very likely drag Miners all the way back down to POSSIBLY (nothing is ever certain or written in stone) to $17.

        1. Bigdaddy

          Christian, I am assuming you mean GDX to $17. Your usually good record is about to take a beating.

    1. Spanky

      This bear move in the miners is so telegraphed I have my doubts now.

      Weak action like this in the miners has never been a good sign in the intermediate term in the past though. But anyone shorting miners should be cognizant of the 50 and 200 dmas. It’s possible the 200dma is tagged or even broken before the miners top.

      1. Christian

        Maybe — I never said this was CERTAIN. I’m just pointing out the wedge so that people are prepared to react if and when the time comes. Simple.

        1. Christian

          Actually Spanky — What you just said confirms what I’ve highlighted on the chart. A break out of the wedge would likely tag the 50DMA (and possibly the 200DMA) first before rolling over. Thx dude ๐Ÿ™‚

        2. Bluebellkid

          I know one thing is that the volume is extremely low in the miners so no conviction on the part of investors.

        3. Spanky

          BoJ and SNB are frontrunning themselves and loading up on AMZN today. lol.

          I totally agree with Gary. US equities are headed to the moon and beyond. I don’t even think a strengthening yen will dent them. At worst if yen strengthens, US equities will go sideways to up. The kicker is if the BoJ announces more easing this weak, it is going to add one hell of a tailwind for US equities.

          The Fed has created a monster–the ultimate moral hazard that will see people pile into equities based on nothing more than the Fed’s guarantee that it will be there to ease if things ever go south. Why would you ever short equities for anything other than a day or swing trade at most?

    2. mustang sally

      Sir Chris. Good call, i switched to jdst early this morning for some bang, I think we are going to see some fireworks

      Switchin horses, sorry dusty

      Riden the jdst

      Mustang Sally

  14. Gary Post author

    I seriously don’t know why any of you are fighting with the metals or energy when there is free money to be had in the stock market.

    The Nasdaq just gave you an intermediate degree correction buying opportunity and is breaking out of its bull market channel.

    How much better does it have to get?

    Yes maybe you could outperform if you time every wiggle right in the mining sector, but is it really worth the headaches?

    1. Christian

      I can’t speak for everyone else but as for myself.. I already have money riding the stock market old turkey thx to Steve Sjuggerud ๐Ÿ™‚

      I’ve said this so many times in the past and I will say it again. The whole stock market analysis is becoming redundant. This is a “Buy & Hold” or “Buy the dips” kind of environment and has been for some time now.

    2. mustang sally

      Gary to answer your question, at my age I can only focus on a few things, all I got to worry about is the usd,silver, and the metal etf. which give you a bang for your buck. I think all these wiggles are going to straighten up.


    3. HomerJ

      You say that about metals and ENERGY Gary yet you hang on to the ERX trade like a conjoined twin. Any trader who is keen on MANAGING their money “smartly”, for fuck’s sake, they would cut that and move on.
      Practice what you preach otherwise quit admonishing others.

      1. Gary Post author

        There’s no way I’m going to whipsaw the energy portfolio to pieces trading in and out of energy trying to get it right. That would only damage traders mental capital to the point they could never pull the trigger anyway, so that is a sure fire loser.

        Besides I’ve been crystal clear. No more than 20% of ones portfolio in energy trades.

        In fact I’ve done everything but beat subscribers over the head to get them to focus 100% of their capital in the stock portfolio right now. It’s where the easy money is until the bubble pops.

        There’s just no need to fight with energy or metals right now. Both are stuck in difficult trading ranges. It’s easy to lose money in erratic trading ranges. Why bother when you have a strongly trending market to trade?

        1. Ed

          Gary, you must be completely out of PM.
          I swear I read somewhere in this blog that you are keeping a modest size in metals earlier. I am sure you wouldn’t recommend your sub be in stocks 100 % unless you are in 100% yourself.
          I am in PM miners 100%. So whatever you say about metals do interest me. Not that I agree with you in any bit.

          You always brag about how you took advantage gold miner price explosion in Jan 2016. I was there before you were in December 2015 when HUI was 99. If I remember correctly you were late. You probably got on aboard somewhere in 130 140 in HUI.

  15. Spanky

    BoJ and SNB are frontrunning themselves and loading up on AMZN today. lol.

    I totally agree with Gary. US equities are headed to the moon and beyond. I donโ€™t even think a strengthening yen will dent them. At worst if yen strengthens, US equities will go sideways to up. The kicker is if the BoJ announces more easing this weak, it is going to add one hell of a tailwind for US equities.

    The Fed has created a monsterโ€“the ultimate moral hazard that will see people pile into equities based on nothing more than the Fedโ€™s guarantee that it will be there to ease if things ever go south. Why would you ever short equities for anything other than a day or swing trade at most?

  16. RetireYoung

    So far a perfect gap fill as expected on GDXJ. I kinda think it might backtest the broken trendline still but maybe not.

  17. mustang sally

    As everyone is talking about the yen my marker for the yen is 82.65. You can short like crazy when this crosses, metals anything,

    Turning Japaneesa


    1. Spanky

      but he doesn’t really explain anything. He just hand waves and says at some point the correlation breaks. At least he acknowledges yen’s super tight correlation with gold since 2011-12.

      Also, what if the correlation breaks, but not in gold’s favor, i.e. yen strengthens and gold goes down in USD terms? Afterall, yen has taken one hell of a beating at the hands of gold up through 2012, and maybe it’s time for some payback?

    2. Mac

      Stop searching for someone else’s explanation of why things happen and vest the time to learn and understand these things yourself. It’s not rocket science and finding answers is actually fairly straight forward if you are willing to put in the time. Start with trying to understand the basics like what factors make the dollar rise or fall. Once you have a basic understanding of that, then you can try to figure out in what scenario the dollar and gold would rise together and in what scenario the dollar and gold would move inversely to each other. Unfortunately the world isn’t that simple and other factors come into play. However, start with the basics and then add other factors as you go. Most people come on here and try to debate complex issues without even a basic understanding of things like what moves currencies, what moves short vs long term rates, what the yield curve and credit spreads are signaling, etc. Even discussions of basic economic fundamentals (what causes recessions, inflation, etc) on this forum are always incomplete and lead to incorrect conclusions.

  18. Bluebellkid

    Go to the 4 minute mark and listen – he does give his opinion on why he thinks there is a correlation.

  19. butch

    Gold halted at the 38.20 retracement level. Harmony. Waiting for next wave down to lower trend line of triangle. You will have one chance at that point and you must be fully loaded.

    1. Don

      Ras, neither have “broken out”. They were just up on the day. SOXL didn’t even take out yesterday’s high.

      1. ras

        Ok, getting ready for breakout, if you examine the individual charts for major semis and internet stocks, you will understand what I am talking about. BO for soxl over 100 could happen in the blink of an eye. NVDA with rank no.5 in IBD big cap 20 and a major heavy weight in the semi sector could be getting ready for huge BO. Many big players like @danzanger are in NVDA. NVDA will be reporting earnings on Aug 10. Many other earning reports for semi stocks with SCTR ratings >98 may be released in that time vicinity. Based on what I see, we could at least have some decent gains in the semi / internet etfs in the next few weeks. Please feel free to disagree. It is OK.

  20. Don

    A minuscule movement for the S&P today and on very low volume. Retail money was chasing Netflix, up an insane 13.5%.

  21. bluelagoon

    MS – looks like Tesla has been heading up since you shorted yesterday? If it gets further than the 50MA – it’ll likely rally further.

    Alex – nat gas is really looking to me like it’s got further to go. I’ve got many signals saying it’s rallying. I understand your longer term perspective is that it’s going down but shorter term wouldn’t you agree it’s heading up? I’m thinking UGAZ is heading to $15’s next.

    1. dboz

      NG is in no man’s land. Pure crap shoot but I think it’s going to drop one more time before break out run.

  22. Alexandru Popovici

    Blue, I was stopped out of NG short @ 3.051 (as I told Victor my stop was).
    Tomorrow it may go up a little bit but I doubt it will render a higher high!
    In any event, now I am out of it and waiting for a re-entry short once I see distribution.

    PS: take a look at USDZAR – it is worth going long (to short the s.a. rand) once a swing low is set. i touted going long this pair some time ago too.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks Alex. I don’t trade currencies – try to stick to what I know and I can only study/focus on a few things at once to improve my accuracy. GL to you though.

  23. Bluebellkid

    By the way Christian I bot some USLV yesterday – 5000 shares @ 10.70. I was away from the computer until 2:30 so purchased the shares with my phone. I am considering an options play on AA and will post in real time tomorrow if I take the trade.

    1. Christian

      Silver looks attractive at these levels but we could be looking at more weakness before the big move up. Are you prepared?

      1. Christian

        Although.. Silver could easily tag the 50DMA first before rolling over, so you should be good for the next little while but I would keep a close eye on that trade.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I hear you. The weekly action last week looked good so thought I would roll the dice.

    2. Nada

      Hope you are in contest bluebellkid, so Gary has your has your half trade in real time vs .30 after. Cheers

      1. Bluebellkid

        Not in the contest. I volunteer at the church every Monday – we prepare meals for widows, shutins, and the elderly. We are up to around 175 meals every Monday so I took time to make the purchase and that was it – since I am not in the contest I didn’t take the time to post in real time. I am not “playing” with paper money – it is my retirement. And 0.30 is not that far from my entry, especially for something so volatile as silver has been lately.

  24. zkotpen


    “GDX will fall now ZKOT you are too confident. Majority of people in this room is now gold bull. I entered Garys contest and bought DUST”

    Robert, my friend, and you are far too social, hence Gary’s recommendation that you shift to real estate, and my strong agreement with that.

    Don’t twist and manipulate what I wrote to save face and present yourself in a self-satisfying social light. It’s not personal. You said the market “should” be doing this or that, and I was simply pointing out that the market is doing exactly what it is doing, as it should, based on its own dynamic, which may or may not be the same as your or my projection. I simply reported the price of GDX at that exact moment, which is the absolute, most perfect, elegant, correct, and proper price at which it could ever “should” “hope” or “expect” to trade:

    The price at which the buyer makes an offer and that offer matches the seller’s bid, and they agree to the sale of a specified number of shares at a specified price.

    The funniest part is that you proudly proclaim “GDX will now fall” — which is you repeating my forecast from a scant 12 hours earlier!! Excellent repetition of what I wrote Roberto!

      1. Robert

        Hehe yes he needs to enter the contest. Words are not cutting it anymore, the contest will show us who can actually trade. As you see zkot is just all about pure talk and writing epistles. Enter the contest zkot and prove yourself!

  25. Ralph

    I know you said you would not allow stop losses. Question :

    If we enter a trade by giving you the usual time, price and % of portfolio, are we allowed to give the same info on the sale later on the same day ? (stop ourselves out).

    1. Gary Post author

      If you exit for a loss that would be stopping out of a trade. If you exit the same day for a gain that would be day trading and not allowed.

      1. Ralph

        OK your game,your rules. Of course entering a trade in front of a news event because you think you have an edge because of technical signals is done often. It does turn into a (unintended) day trade if you’re wrong.

        Brokers allow this 3 days out of 5 without calling you a day trader. But, I see where you just wouldn’t want to keep up with it.

    1. mustang sally

      Comment on Gary. I think everyone should congratulate Gary on the only sub writer to put his call on the line with the online bingo. I have never heard any of them do such a thing and I doubt they would. You all know who they are invite them to join, I bet you will hear crickets. So if you are not in the online bingo game, do Gary a favor and shut up. Gary would you post the participants are so we can separate the pansies’

      Put up or shut up

      Mustang Sally

    2. Gary Post author

      Stretching yes, but clearly not in a parabolic pattern yet. I think it will get there though and maybe even rival the 2000 bubble. At the top in 2000 the Nasdaq was 156% above the 200 WMA. Currently the Nasdaq is 29% above the 200 week moving average.

      I went over what to look for at the final top in my last video.

  26. Bluebellkid

    From IBD’s The Big Picture:
    Volume rose on the Nasdaq and the NYSE. Nasdaq breadth was weaker than its gain would suggest: Losers led winners by 9-to-7. NYSE losers narrowly led winners.
    As the Nasdaq reached a record high, it also broke a brief pattern of lower lows and lower highs. Technically, that puts the composite in better footing as the major indexes try to extend an already productive 2017 for equities.
    The Nasdaq is up nearly 18% for the year, and the S&P 500 almost 10%. The indexes have made those gains despite a low-volatility environment and lagging performance by small and midcap stocks.
    Throughout those conditions, there have been various sectors that have emerged as leaders. Today, Chinese companies, fiber optics and semiconductors are some areas to probe for potential winners. Much of that bloc benefits the Nasdaq, which is nearly 45% tech stocks.

    The superior end of Tuesday’s performance was consumer-heavy, with leisure, retail and mortgage groups leading. The movies group was No. 1 thanks to Netflix’s (NFLX) stellar gap, which sent its shares soaring 13.5% to 183.60, into an all-time high and out of a flat base.

  27. zkotpen

    I just put in a trade order on the exercise from the end of Trading in the Zone, and I did it the exact way I need to do trades:

    -Calculated limit order, which may or may not fill.

    -Calculated stop-loss at 2.5%, in case the order fills, but I’m wrong.

    -Calculated take-profit, with risk:reward = 0.187, which is less than the recommended maximum of 0.333.

    This is the way I need to do trading. Couldn’t care less what this one or that one thinks about it.

    Fortunately, the market also does not care about social skills, charm, and charisma. The market price is exactly perfect at every moment of every day, regardless of what this one or that one thinks about it.

    I need to carry out 20 of these trades, then assess for consistency, and then proceed from there.

    1. Bigdaddy

      What is zkotpen talking about? Does anyone know? I can’t figure out what he’s beaking about.

    2. dboz

      Good for you. The market is a little more dynamic than I have time for all that. I am more of a gunslinger in comparison.

    3. RetireYoung

      Z, nice. I completed an abridged version of the exercise. No time for more at ther moment. I think the hardest parts are defining your risk, which as described in the book is more than just set a stop. Good luck and let us know how it goes.

  28. zkotpen

    And obviously at least one person on this blog has memorized my early FOMC forecast regarding gold and GDX. ๐Ÿ™‚

    Merry Christmas to that person,

    Love ~ Zanta

  29. Ed

    I read from somewhere that Japanese pensioners do not mind BOJ easy money policy. For them Yen depreciation means loss of their pensions buying power but at same time they love their property value going up with easy money printing.
    So I guess inflation there only hurts young and homeless ones.

    Japan has unique debt situation. All creditors of Japanese debts are within its own country. Debt over 300% it’s GDP does not worry them much as much as US or EUROPE worry about their debts which are mostly made of external creditors.
    This week if BOJ decides to lower it’s bench mark on 2% inflation, that should work favorable to gold.

  30. zkotpen


    “Words are not cutting it anymore, the contest will show us who can actually trade.”

    I agree. It’s time for you to stop asking questions with your words and figure out the answers for yourself, and take action. And since there’s a contest with prizes in play, your words in the form of brain-picking questions are not cutting it anymore. I totally agree w/ u.

    It’s hard to believe that Christian, Gary, and even I have allowed you to pick our brains. If you want to pick Gary’s brain, subscribe to his service. If you want to pick Christian’s brain, perhaps he’ll oblige you.

    1. Nada

      Who are you to tell Robert that he needs to stop asking questions. You are acting like a pompous ass. You have executed one trade and all of a sudden you are the technical expert and keep making disparaging comments that he does not belong in the market and that he should stick to real estate due to their social skills, that’s rich coming from someone who loves to listen to themselves talk.

      1. zkotpen

        I am just clarifying that your sidekick loves to try to pick people’s brains.

        And the hypocrisy of it all is, he regurgitates my forecast.

        Enough of all the social posturing and face it: Market price is the absolute perfect and correct price of any security at any time, and Pinchecito loves to pick as many people’s brains as he can.

        That’s the long & short of it, minus all the blather.

        1. Nada

          Lol, I doubt very seriously he listens to anything you say in regards to the markets. A guy who has made one trade in his life now believes others are stealing his market forecasts. Wow, it does not take much to inflate your ego.

        2. Robert

          Zkot I’m convinced that your a moron. Your an attention seeker. Go get a woman. You clearly have no life, sitting there writing Epistles everyday on this blog. Again enter the contest and stop blabbering nonsense. Nada don’t pay him any attention, he’s just a lonely old man/woman

    2. Robert

      Zkot stop writing these Epistles and enter the contest. You are still blabbering. Put your money where your mouth is. A real trader does not go on blogs writing long ass essays. Are you a female?

  31. dboz

    Did Christian say he was in or out of the contest! I am thinking he is out since he stopped bragging about how every trade that went against him always managed to wait out the rebound to get positive. Amazing fortunes of that guy.

      1. Nada

        Ok, GL with your trade. Recommendation is to buy yourself a bit more time for out of the money calls. Keep a close eye on the theta.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I’m just buying in anticipation of a good earnings report. If the earnings are good and stock goes up I will sell into that and switch over to actual shares. I just didn’t want to buy shares right before an earnings report. I owned NTES and MELI earlier this year and got cold feet on both right before earnings and bailed. NTES shot up 36 on the good earnings and MELI went up 38 and I had already sold them. IBD actually has a strategy for playing earnings reports. AA fits the criteria for such a play so am rolling the dice.

          1. Nada

            Interesting. I will have to check out this IBD site you reference. Do you trade options much or are you just getting your feet wet?

  32. victor

    “Merry Christmas? WTF??”
    Bigdaddy, cant read your comments without laughing hard. Why your thinking is so straight ? Use a bit your imagination and humor… ( :

  33. Bluebellkid

    Don’t trade options much – became knowledgeable about them back in 1982. Just picked up another 20 Calls same strike price and expiration but got them for 0.50 this time instead of 0.55 – AA is pulling back some.

  34. Bluebellkid

    IBD has devised an earnings options strategy so you can reap the rewards of well-received earnings reports from the likes of Netflix and Apple.
    So what is the earnings options strategy? Look for stocks in or near buy zones, usually within proper bases. Then find a just-out-of-the-money weekly or monthly call option, so the strike price is just above the underlying stock price. Every strike price comes with a premium. Divide the premium, or option cost, by the stock price, and multiply by 100. That’s the downside risk as a percentage. You want to look for options trades that will minimize your downside risk to no more than 4%.

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