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Here is another chart showing XAU/USD, a flash crash down to touch the trendline is in the cards for July:
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/sites/default/files/users/u9880/xauusd-6h-tl-30062017.png
Good morning,
Thus GOLD is departing from its channel, to transform into head and shoulders.
How come H&S?
The 24hrs running GOLD chart from investing.com with weekly candles shows better the pattern.
Agreed Gary. I think USD could well have a brief sharp extention lower now after action on Fri. We hit my Fib target Thurs, went under and then completed a back test mirroring gold.
My short EUR position therefore is too early and to be honest my second position opened Friday got filled too early as I screwed up my order.
Indexes didn’t give anything away regarding if the correction is over.
Gary, so your saying Gold & miners will rally next week since the dollar declines? That would mean a false breakdown of that trendline if it rallies back above it or you expect it to jus crawl along the trendline?
I think we have an answer as early as Monday, Wednesday at the latest. Some EVENT is going to create a spark to the move one way or the other.
I hope so getting tired of waiting. Why you feel Mon or Wed? This guy Gary is saying the dollar will selloff more this week
Trade weighted dollar index is showing a double top:
https://goldsilver.com/blog/the-shift-is-on-why-institutional-investors-are-buying-gold-again/
hmmm, maybe the dollar is in a worse shape than I thought?
One thing I notice about PM purchases from retail. They don’t buy when prices decline as they think they are going lower. They buy when prices are escalating as they fear the present may be cheap. It’s backwards from what you would think. This is just anecdotal that I view by watching sales on EBAY. It’s my only way to track any actual sales. Of course, stackers always buy on the down trends, but the average shmo does not. I can tell with the number of low ranked buyers suddenly purchasing gold coins etc.
It’s not the first time AU has broke the trend line. Anything can happen with the market and cash flow out of the EU that will catch everyone off guard.
The COT reports show huge improvements in both gold and silver over the two weeks through this past Tuesday. These changes indicate a rise in gold/silver paper prices coming sometime in July.
Based on the paper trading since Tuesday, continued improvements in the COT structures have undoubtedly taken place through yesterday.
Watch the miners. They will likely start going higher as usual in advance of the Commercials washing out the Specs’ shorts.
I posted this at the bottom of the last blog discussion. I will repost it here since it fits better.
Looks like a sudden large move that does not look anything like the past 4 years. Make your own correlation with spikes and bottoms.
http://commitmentsoftraders.org/wp-content/uploads/Static/SI_OPT.png
Another huge spike out of no where in gold also.
http://commitmentsoftraders.org/wp-content/uploads/Static/GC_OPT.png
The closer to 100, the more bullish, obviously.
On a side note, I have noticed big upticks in GPL, EXK and AG. Someone is getting ready for silver to make a move. Even FFMGF is seeing much higher volume recently. I did not understand it until seeing these charts. Be ready for a big drop in the GSR coming soon. I think it makes it very possible the PM’s could rise even if the dollar rises. We shall see, everyone has an opinion.
Dboz, watch AG on Monday. It has a daily head & shoulder pattern in place. If it gaps up Monday I think we are going to rally for a while.
It would be great if you and Dboz are correct on this. I have 4500 shares of AG and 20,000 shares of GPL – both slighty underwater at the moment. 9.13 and 1.36
Gary makes it sound as if the dollar is going to turn any day now and that gold will suffer accordingly. Maybe and maybe not. Let’s look back to August of 2016 when DXY was at 95 (approx.) and Gary began with the first of multiple calls for the dollar to fall. Well, it wasn’t until 6 months later, in January of 2017, that the dollar finally peaked and it then remained elevated until May.
DXY finally started down sharply just in the past few months. Gary claims that he was right all along. Hmmm…
I know of no analyst that does a very good job of predicting the direction of currencies with any degree of consistency. Gary is not the only one that doesn’t get currency calls correct with good timing.. Remember last year when it was the consensus of many analysts that the Euro was going to collapse? Still waiting.
My point is that we cannot assume the dollar is ‘due’ for a rally. It may or may do so but keep in mind that currencies do not move in cycles. Straight up and straight down is not uncommon. Witness what happened with the Yen during 2015. Elevator down! If the dollar continues to fall that would create a tail wind for gold that could add fuel to surprise rally that would a catch a lot of folks unprepared.
Don, what on earth are you talking about? Bring up a 30yr chart of the $USD & if you cannot see a clear 3yr and 8yr cycle going back the last 3 decades then I don’t know what to tell you. Your not just a tad off base here you are way out in left field. I like most of your post’s Don but you must have been hitting the bottle a little early for the 4th of July weekend……………LOL………………take care………..p.s………sorry, but I gotta call em like I see em.
Don, I am going to post this again for you. I will be willing to bet you a bottle of whatever your drinking that this time will be no different. ……………..you know I joking with ya.
The large spec’s are net short the dollar at these last two 3yr cycle lows;
May 2014 U.S. dollar 3yr cycle low——-http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1399664002.php
May 2011 U.S. dollar 3 yr cycle low——http://news.goldseek.com/COT/1304710347.php
Desertsun: I admit that if one tries hard, a case could be made that there are SOME DXY cycle lows that fall roughly three years apart, give or take about six months. Also note worthy is the fact that in the final months the fall can be quite precipitous. Recoveries can be quick and substantial or slow and feeble. It’s a mixed bag. The final low could be far lower than what DXY is right now.
I stand by my assertion that there is no way Gary, or anyone else, can conclude that a cycle low is imminent and that gold is going to experience a big drop as the dollar recovers. That’s just pure speculation and will probably prove to be dead wrong. Sure, a DXY low may occur in the upcoming days but it could just as easily be weeks or even months away and DXY could be a lot lower than it is now. If DXY has not turned around before before gold’s seasonal period of strength, which begins in early August, the dollar weakness will add to seasonal strength and it’s off to the races for gold. I am just speculating, of course, and freely admit to doing so but it seems that everyone is buying into the notion that gold and the miners are in for a big dip and there is really no rational reason to conclude such.
BTW, you would be wise not to be getting too smart assed about things you do not fully understand. Also, why are you long silver if you are so certain a cycle low is due for gold? Just wanting to be early?
Here are the reasons I think a bottom is imminent.
The dollar is starting to drop straight down. That tends to be a sign of a final panic when everyone just wants out at any rice. This soon leads to capitulation and then there are no more sellers left. (I call this the bloodbath phase. Most ICL’s have one during the last 5-7 days of the decline).
The COT has become extremely bullish.
And sentiment is very close to reaching a bearish (contrarian signal) extreme we have seen since the last 3 YCL in 2014.
The three yearly cycle low is now due (if it didn’t already occur last year.)
Don, you say a lot that makes sense but don’t actually say if you think gold is going up. It’s all maybe this and maybe that.
What has just transpired over the last 6 months has not ever occurred since the PM bull started. Since the beginning of this year the $USD has dropped $8.50 and silver is 8 cents above where it started on Jan. 1.
IF we are in a bull market then this unprecedented price relationship tells you volumes about what to expect in the future. Judge the metals on their price behavior and sentiment & nothing else.
Right now we are close to the average. It is the time to sit on the sidelines. Getting in is like flipping a coin.
The miners? Wow since the low of early 2016 they have substantial gains.
The price of Gold/miners is probably governed mostly by sentiment. So let us wait for the safe to fully fall, break and then pick up the riches.
Do not swing trade the 3X funds as they are designed to get your money. To swing trade them one needs to wait till a clear extreme/divergence takes place.
Kruzoe shared and excellent example of how it is done. He 3X shorted on June 6th the miners, DUST, just when gold hit again the peak of April 18th, when gold was departing from the averages a great deal.
And he made about $32K, as DUST went from about $25 to $30 not for lunch, but for a reasonable banquet.
What does it take?
The skill of patience for the setup to come.
The skill of timing.
The guts to put 8K shares, or about $200K on the table.
The skill to sit quite.
Kruzoe may have reasoned too that as the FED was expected soon to hike the rates, which would bring gold down, his chances were pretty good.
He also asked for advice here about what to do, the trait of smart people, when he had the $32K, to leave them for the weekend or to sell them? He did the smart thing, only left 2K shares on the table.
He says he is up about $56K in his recent trades.
Good for him!, and for us as we solidify our trading skills.
What does it take?
The skill of patience for the setup to come.
The skill of timing.
The guts to put 8K shares, or about $200K on the table.
The skill to sit quite.
Easily said, but each of these items requires, unless one is talented, substantial training to effectively put them in action. Do not full yourself, none of them is easy.
On the other hand…
One does not have to be heroic to make bucks.
You can be an ant, do hard work, as I did in the last two months collecting lunch money every day:
May $17K,+June 17$K =+$34K.
What does it take to be an ant?
Oh, again do not fool yourself.
It requires discipline and consistency.
Not so easy to practice, either.
Don, I am not condemning your investment choices. I believe there is overwhelming data now that is endorsing a 3yr cycle low that is coming in the dollar. I am the only one on this board that has been saying for the last month or better that the dollar needed to achieve certain parameters in the dollar COT data to endorse the 3yr cycle bottom. That time is at hand. Like I said in previous post’s we might go as low as 93 on the dollar before it bounces but then it will lead to a multi-month rally……….I have no doubt about that.
Now to the question concerning silver. Because of how silver has severed its inverse relationship to the dollar for the entire first half of this year I cannot allow myself to use that relationship in making a decision on whether or not to invest in silver at these levels. You seem to have jumped to a conclusion based on what I have written about the dollar. This is what I really believe concerning silver. I believe its true value is what I think Dboz posted on this blog, The U.S. debt clock comes up with its value for silver based on the M2 money supply. Its nobody’s opnion…………just pure data. Now whether that proves to be relevant is anybody’s guess. I hope that clears things up. GOOD LUCK……..to both of us!
Don, this might interest you.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=knI7ezodSDk
Thanks desertsun, that video told me everything I wanted to hear.
I can’t say I have ever heard of Jim Deeds although I have listened to some of McAlvany. The guy sees a bright future for silver and he could be right. Thanks for passing on the link as it was interesting.
I am going to loading up on silver next week . Those guys seemed to know what they were talking about. It just matter of time before silver goes crazy and it will be way better than gold.
Desertsun, have you been following that Jim deeds? is he the real deal?
I have followed Mcalvany for quite some time. They know there stuff.
Gary, I am not going to participate in your contest after all. It just doesn’t seem real to me. More like playing Monopoly. Its just not the same when real money is not on the line. It tells you nothing about a persons investment acumen in my opinion.
LOL It’s not quite as easy when you have to make real time calls is it?
You got knocked out of your silver position during the attack last week.
Now you know how hard my job is except multiple that times a couple thousand as I have people actually trading their money based on my views.
You had the luxury of just playing with paper money if you so choose for a real money price with no responsibility other than being exposed to real time timing mistakes. The only downside for you would have been that your trades don’t do nearly as good as you claim in real time as they do in hindsight.
And this is why I started the challenge. To show people just how tough this business is when you actually have to follow the rules and call your trades in real time. And the hardest trade of all to call is the exit.
So far a few people have made a few small gains, but no one is producing the big winners that so many people claim to do on a regular basis. So far my latest trade in metals has me right in there with the leader and only a few hundred dollar behind.
BD: This game is all about maybe this and maybe that. That is what I have learned after 38 years of investing and it is not getting any easier. In fact, this latest bull market has been down right crazy. Nothing makes any sense and I blame that on computer trading and central bank interference. True price discovery no longer exists.
Well, I have SOXS so i hope the market crashes next week but i don’t have anything in silver so it might be a good idea to get some soon because when it finally does get going, it could be a very rapid climb.
I gotta go cause the wife wants to watch a movie together but i will see you guys maybe tomorrow or monday for sure.
Desertsun999: You are long silver, correct or am I thinking pf someone else?
Looking at the USD monthly chart the obvious take is we are going sideways for a while.
Meaning a number of weeks.
The Dollar IS in trouble!
http://stockcharts.com/articles/chartwatchers/2017/06/narrowing-spread-between-treasuries-and-foreign-yields-are-bad-for-the-dollar.html
Sure a bounce upwards is possible but for how long? Do you know that the WWIII is already finished? Looking at T-bond yield we already have a winner. The pattern for the yield is very similar to 1940-> we are at 1945-46. Who won? I don’t know but we have to look at currencies, which one is going up and what currency is going down? Do we have a new reserve currency a couple of years from now?
From WWII both currencies, the Deutsche-Mark and the UK-Pound Sterling lost and the US Dollar won.
Steff,
Nice article. Though the interpretation for me is different. Consider that the dollar was previously at 80.
There has been a good readjustment already and so before further fall it is likely the USD will stay flat for a while. Yields will continue to go down and so gold will go down tool till inflation lifts it.
I mean yields will continue going up.
I have been thinking about this silver thing and i am positive that is what we should be putting a big chunk of our money into. Solar panels use a lot of silver and that industry is really taking off. Silver is dirt cheap right now. i will be buying silver on monday.
Desertsun posted an interview everyone should listen to. It opened my eyes. Stay tuned.
Gary, Don,
No, I reentered my position on Friday afternoon. I just decided to go long silver and not trade the position. I don’t think you can say I got knocked out of something when I reentered for about the same price.
There are a couple of things that were really bothering me when it comes to trying to play the dollar 3yr cycle low.
1. As I stated above silver has severed its inverse dollar relationship in 2017. It has went up 8 cents while the dollar has went down $8.50.
2. Silver broke out of its 6yr downtrend over a year ago at around $16.00. I just can’t get myself to trade against that long term buy signal with any sort of confidence.
Don, this is my biggest fear moving forward. Gold’s 8yr cycle. All of these cycles have been pretty close to 8yrs.
1976-1985
1985-1993
1993-2001
2008-2016——this cycle is either close to a year early or we have not had it yet. That really is the million dollar question moving forward. If we have not had this cycle bottom yet then I believe silver could possibly retest the 13.62 Dec 2015 lows. I’m sure Gary has something to add here……………………………
2001-2008………..forgot that one.
Expecting fireworks to start July 4th, and to continue for the full month into the July 26th FOMC meeting,
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XAUUSD/yf5N5erZ-Gold-Trend-Line-Support/
My wife and I went out to eat yesterday at Red Lobster. It was just dead for a Saturday around noon. During my meal I had a conversation with my server. She has worked at Red Lobster for about 5yrs. I asked her if she had noticed a slowdown over the last year and she said that business has slowed considerably. She said that 3yrs prior to that things were booming all the time but now you get weekends like what we were seeing yesterday. That pretty much matches up with the restaurant recession articles I have been reading.
I have to disagree. I eat at restaurants M-F for lunch and usually 2 times on Saturday and Sunday. I would say activity is at its highest I have seen in the past ten years. I am not sure where you are located, so that could be a factor. I eat at a plethora of different types, so my observation is not based on a specific chain or category of food.
Here is my outlook on the USD and its longer Cycles, including its 15 Year SuperCycle.
https://surfcity.co/2017/07/01/usd-i…ycle-update-2/
My work shows Gold and the Miners should be heading higher next week…
Oscar disagrees
My wife and i eat out a lot and we have also noticed that the restaurants are not busy. Even though we usually make reservations at the more expensive places, it’s not necessary anymore because those places are dead and have been for the past six months or so.
BTW, the steak at Red Lobster isn’t worth a shit.
The only problem I have with lobster is I am usually sitting on the toilet a hour after eating it……………………………..LOL.
I read somewhere that lobster goes bad real quick and that is why we should never eat lobster that is dead on ice. They are really just a sea bug.
Does anyone else have something to say about silver?
Yes, it’s going down hard, baby. Usually what happens during a holiday week like the 4th of July, gold and silver will be smashed to pieces by the bullion banks via the instructions from the central banks like the FED, BIS, and others. They can easily do this because of the low liquidity.
Considering silver commercials are at their lowest net short in the last 12 months I doubt it will go down hard. Maybe up instead during the slow holiday week.
Patience and timing. Wait to see if visits 15.70ish and if it holds
The only restaurants in my area that are busy, are those that are locally owned, but they are busy because they offer special incentives. (personal service, live music, happy hour freebies, etc).
Big chains are ghost towns.
I agree. All the chain sit downs in my area are way off their highs.
I just came back from 3 weeks in Spain/Portugal – and nearly every hotel we stayed at said its business is down 6 to 10 percent from last year.
One other thing that shocked me – nearly every restaurant/cafe/shop/supermarket we visited wanted cash as oposed to debit/credit cards.
Christ this board is dead on a Sunday. i am taking the dog for a walk. There is a rabbit that he has been chasing for the past couple weeks and he is getting antsy about getting out. maybe today is the day he will catch bugs bunny. See you all later. Think about the silver thing .
Look at the silver gold and platinum 5Y charts: SLV GLD PPLT.
Note that of the three the least beaten down is gold, plat and silver the most.
I am expecting gold to continue going down, dragging silver and plat, as the yields are going up. USD I think will be flat for a while.
The three are about on the averages and it is not a good time to go heavily either way.
At this point the odds are about the same for silver to go either way. There are no departures from the averages or divergences to rely on.
Though I would say buy or sell 1K shares of SLV and if right add more shares, or wait for the breakout.
Nothing to be excited about. There are no great deals unless you have a lot of patience.
Though, what good is to be here at the SMT then? We want trades to work right away.
Counts mostly pointing down. Maybe up to an x but below 1258. Watching for a break below 1240ish. Or if breaks above 1260ish I may go long. Gold
The restaurant anecdotes might be interesting conversation but I hope no investing ideas are coming from it.
sell Red Lobster stock short?
Lol. I definitely wouldn’t eat lobster at one
Low and range bound gold, oil and commodies in general. Wish it was different but tend to,agree with your comment. Currently overbought but biotech gets my vote. Have a happy 4th.
Wow! It sounds like Illinois is going down in flames.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-01/horrific-catastrophic-court-ruling-send-illinois-financial-abyss
Hasn’t the state of Illinois been run by the Democrats for quite some time? They might have to cut back on the ‘free shit’ in order to get state finances in order. Some would argue that an unfunded pension plan would fall into the category of ‘free shit’. I’ll bet the cops and the legislators don’t lose a dime of their benefits.
I would imagine that cutting back on the freebies would probably spark a few riots and up the murder rate some.
if they raise income taxes on the black folk, there will be hell to pay.
Hey Bigdaddy, you are on during the weekend, why did you not tell me. I see you asked a question about silver, you know me ride em silver, silver is going to have a dump and it won’t be pretty.
HI ho silver, not
Your best friend
Mustang Sally
sally, maybe you would like to talk to someone more at your senile level. My dog is sitting right here My be you two could do a video chat. Let me know.
The Japanese yen looks to me as as if it might be ready to join the ‘Let’s beat on the dollar’ party that pretty much every other currency has been enjoying. If the yen moves up, expect it to pull gold up with it. There has been a strong positive correlation between the two ever since the central banks began with their low interest rate policies. Until the BOJ raises their rates, I see no reason for the correlation to end.
It’s just speculation on my part but this could be one of those times where the the dollar rallies, the yen rallies harder and gold goes up in spite of a rising dollar.
Howdy all: I see we are talking currencies , the usd is the bomb and indebt countries to the usd are going to see the light where it does not shine. Oh sheet time will happen when usd breaks 102.81
And by the way Gary where is the chart that keeps all posted trades of 100,000. Please put it up i need an adrenaline rush , less meds for me.
Giddy up
Mustang Sally
I’ll post updates monthly.
Ok sounds good cowboy.
Thanks for posting
I predict I will be handing out a lot of dunce hats next week.
Good to see your back my friend, I would like a green hat, I feel lucky.
That grand canyon gap on dusty won’t get filled for a while, feeling trapped Big daddy.
HI HO Dusty
Horseshit.
1236 on deck? Or should I say walking the plank?
I just watched a video Trump posted of himself pounding down CNN. It was great! What a class act. Probably boost the stock markets tomorrow.
I am going to bed so if anyone has any questions, it will have to wait till the morning.
Good morning Big Daddy. I see you would like some questions, what the hell is going on with your prediction of buying all your gdx? how is that question big boy,
Ride em dusty
Mustang Sally
Lol mustang sally.. I don’t mind different views, but what annoys me… the ones that talk like they know exactly what an asset is going to do. I dont need to mentiom their names, since you already have 🙂
One thing always remains true, the market makes a fool out of them. Congrats on your DUST.
Thank you Nada, just an honest cowgirl trying to clean up the town,
Mustang Sally
Great job, I am glad there is a new sheriff in town as the BS was getting deep.
Hmm the dollar has formed a swing today. I was expecting a bit more pain this week before the final bottom, but….
This opens the possibility that we just got the bottom as a marginal undercut of the election night low.
Gold has broken the uptrendline. There is still alit of strength in the junior miners. Do u think gdxj will eventually catch up to the seniors on the downside? I don’t see any analyst commenting on the Juniors strength, i guess u don’t have any ideas either of how low it can go
Gary. I would assume you made a spread sheet of all the entries, so why not live post it, should be easy and no extra work . That would get the fakes out sooner than later, that was the main purpose after all , was it not? hmmm
Ride em cowgirl
Mustang Sally
Gary, what would you look for/when would you call the dollar having reached the YCL this past Friday? Alvin
The miners are holding up relatively well pre market compared to the drop in gold. Let’s see if they can finally punish the di buyer s
gold 1160/70 coming soon on dvd
Good morning,
Hopefully we have an extreme by 7:00 AM, a broken safe to pick up the riches.
Good trading to all.
A good day to take a small position in Dust. I’m in for 2K.
Friday’s entry of DUST:
Selling 500 shares of DUST from 31.11 at 32.11
Selling 500 shares of DUST from 31.11 at 33.00
Still holding 1k shares
goood morning smt!!
Once again Gold and related shares take no prisoners…hence the reason Ive abandon the sector totally.
Long URA tho
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/g/G5dflyu1.png and long many other areas as well…point being screw the metals sector…
Happy Fourth Gary
While I think gold has a lot further to drop, I want to be flat over the holiday. Sold my last 1k shares of DUST from 31.11 at 33.11. Profit from Friday’s hold = 3445.00. God bless America and happy 4th to everyone.
Silver is on sale today. i am very pleased to pick up 1000 shares of SLV 13.37. This will be a winner.
I meant 1000 of SLV at 15.37, not 13.37.
I think i said something last night about the stock market going up today. The world loved Trump beating the crap out of CNN.
Tempted to scale in a second time in JNUG, I am alittle bit too stubborn for my own good.
I am waiting for 11-13th of July, I think it’s an important date for a Gold index.
Boom boom. Breaking range! Gold and miners. Could try scalps from support to backtest but I won’t have time
Robert- take what the market gives you or find something else to do.
Changed my mind to dangerous to scalp. Looks inversely similar to the 50ish point move in April. Gold
Lots of surprises this morning. Silver is getting smashed. Is it a buy or is there more pain coming?
The SM is strong because Trump’s plan to make America great again is working.
Everything I am making on SOXS, i am losing on GDX. Now SLV is kicking me in the teeth. This is shaping up to be a horseshit day.
Trump says, “You’re welcome”
The Nasdaq is going in one direction and the S&P in the other. The big five are all down hard. Weird day.
The way I see it ( messy I know )
GOLD
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/3/3iSTGify.png
SILVER
https://s3.amazonaws.com/tradingview/snapshots/m/mRKrENFF.png
I would adjust the line with the arrow to include the wicks. You included the beginning wick but not the most recent. I suspect this move will be around 40 to 50 points down for gold before any real bounce
Well. well another open gap and closure for the longs, now Gary how about posting the results real time, since we have had 2 opening gaps there should be only the ones that bought before the first gap, and that does not include you Gary as you commented that same day that you found it unusual that anybody would be buying dust. As you were the one the wants truth how about posting it up as opposed to a month .
Ride em dusty
Mustang Sally
PS message to my friend Big Daddy, better listen to your wife more often.
Christian: Why do you keep changing your handle?
ERX looking good!
My prediction is that GUSH/UWT will be up this month despite traditional strong seasonality to the downside for July. I suspect though that we should see a correction likely this week in these before they continue moving up. I’ll be watching to see if this comes true for a buy point.
GDX is not looking so bad. I will continue to hold but will not average down. This smash down in the PM could be short lived or get much worse. Who really knows? I see DUST is almost back to Gary’s initial buy in point. ERX has a ways to go yet.
Goild, have you made you lunch money yet? Stupid question. Of course you have.
Is this the time to buy gold and silver? It’s not looking good. I am holding GDX and wondering if I should buy more to average down or just take the loss and dump it.
Don’t be afraid Lena, but have a look at SLV instead of GDX. They are trying to shake everyone out of their positions before gold and silver rocket higher. Trump is going to show the world who’s boss. The missiles are going to be flying any day now.
I am done for the day. Remember the market closes at 1:00 PM today.
Got half of my lunch money going long on falling JNUG, the other half on the bounce.
Have a nice 4th of July!
OK, got 1000K shares of SLV to hold overnight.
This is the time to BUY Gold&Silver related stuff, just bought my second lot in JNUG at 17ish
According to my own work I see a major inflection coming in 8-10 days from now.
It has served me very well over a short period of time!
I will post the chart here the 13th of July 🙂
Steff – if the major inflection point isn’t for another 1-2 weeks – why not buy closer to then? especially if this is an ICL and there’s a final big flush at the end on gold?
Great question bluelagoon!
I’ve always been more afraid of missing the boat than sailing into an iceberg 🙂
Why would you buy PMs when the dollar put in a swing low today? The only hope for gold at this point is a bounce due to oversold or the hopes of some geopoltical event. The bull you saw on Friday was castrated.
We will see, please wait another 8-10 days, you are probably right, but I am following my own path here.
I closed my Dust position. No need to be greedy. Profit on 2K is $ 2,600. Like Arnold said, I’ll be back.
Kruzoe,
Great trade!!!
Thanks Goild. There’s more to come later this week. Good luck.
Nada,
Very nice trade too!
Thanks much Goild. Always try to not look a gift horse in the mouth, especially with metals.
JJ,
Are you making money?
I hope so.
Happy 4th of July!
Changed my mind with SLV and sold it.
Both gold and silver may continue to fall.
Let the safe fully fall to pick up the riches.
I am up $660 on SOXS , down $450 on GDX and down $80 on SLV. If I sold it all, i would only have a measly $130 for lunch money. I don’t think the wife would want to go to Taco Bell so i will hang on for more profit.
The money is fleeing the tech sector and is immediately put into other sectors such as banking and energy as if those two sectors are sudden;y going to be making big profits. I guess the machines don’t have a program that involves being in cash. The result is that there is no market correction.
Great close! Hope we don’t miss some downside because of the holiday. Expecting gold to continue drop. Maybe bounce at 1214ish but I’m thinking lower and inversely similar to April…about 45ish points.
Hey Big Daddy, just to let you know since my buy at 29.00 all in thats 3400 , as of now up 3.43, let me get the slide rule out that’s $11.662 . Gonna ride the dust until its not
Ride em cowgirl
Dusty Mustang
mustang sally, Good for you. I am also up on the day so it’s been a good day for both of us. I have to ask, did you choose that name because you have have been rode a lot? HAHAHAHAHAHA.
Hey Big Daddy, thanks for showing your ignorance to everybody, I will let my trading results stand for themselves. I think you will be the one who gets ridden.
Ride em dusty
Mustang Sally
Great call, SLEP. I also enjoyed your comment on KITCO.
Looks like I got everything correct.
Energy is rallying out of a YCL… just like I said it would. I didn’t get the exact bottom, but one doesn’t have to get the exact bottom to make money. You only need to get “close enough”. We definitely got close enough.
The dollar has formed a swing and judging by the reaction in gold the swing will mark the ICL in the dollar as well. Again I didn’t catch the exact bottom but I’m going to be close enough.
And gold… well I told you so.
Over the next 4-8 weeks we are going to see traders try to pick the bottom in gold over an over. None of them will get it right. Heck I’m already seeing people on here who got it wrong trying to double down. This is how ICL’s play out. The preceding rally was strong enough or lasted long enough that traders get locked into a bullish mentality so they are worried about missing a potential rally. That strategy works great at the beginning of an intermediate rally when price has lots of upside potential. But during the declining phase o an intermediate cycle that strategy is catastrophic.
In over 15 years of watching the gold market I have rarely ever seen an ICL form until everyone is in complete panic. At an ICL absolutely no one is worried about missing a rally. Everyone is convinced that price will never stop going down. (Does this sound familiar? Think energy stocks. That was ICL type sentiment, and again no one listened to me).
The time to buy is when no one on this board except me is bullish on the metals. Clearly we aren’t even close yet.
4-8 weeks? Wow I thought u we’re expecting ICL end of July. That means miners could prbly retest the Dec lows
And gold weekly stochastic could become oversold before end of this month. 4 weeks sounds more likely for a bottom
You are looking at the wrong chart. Look at the dollar chart. Decide how long you think the dollar could rally in an intermediate advance and that is how long gold will fall, unless sentiment just becomes too extreme first. But as I noted the other day sentiment is dead neutral in gold. Gold would have to drop a long ways or drop very sharply to turn sentiment bearish enough to bottom despite a rising dollar.
If so then there is a possibility gold goes lower than 1180 and the miners will for sure break the Dec lows
I’ve been telling everyone for months that the miners are going to break the December lows. Did you think I was kidding?
Gary, I agree. Miners likely break lows but hasn’t happened yet.
It will take some time. That’s way to far down to happen in just a few days.
Absolutely and agreed high probability. Just saying nothing’s guaranteed. Your free message board is great and I’m enjoying your analysis. My comment was more for those that are stressing every wiggle and thinking when it’s going up it will never go down and vice versa.
OIl, Psychologically, had pretty much given up on my long energy holdings bought periodically this spring. A nice unanticipated 4th present. The way it always is. When there’s not a chance in hell, Suprize! GOLD…. Waiting for insider buying like we had in energy in anticipation of a market bottom. Lots of sells in miners to date. Once the miners get cheap enough there will be buying. What a great 4th.
Will be exiting from erx in about 10 days. 1st day up for cvx, my reference point. Looks like uup trying to get into rally mode. gold miners are badly fragmented: seniors vs juniors. Tough group to play.
Money rotating into dow stocks from nas? DD looks interesting, just beginning to move.
Yes, selling growth buying value: Pharma, fertilizer, steel, chemicals, tankers, etc. Could use a good dose of more of the same.
A little something I`ve been entertaining myself with the last few months.
https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_a1e1b02cbf6da30a8dd464aa8740b2b9.png
My DSLVs are feeling awesome right now.
Good for you, keep hanging in there, remember do the opposite of Big Daddy and you will be fine.
Rockin the dusy
Mustang Sally
Gary I wish you would post our on line contest , it would quiet I this nonsense and we could communicate with the real traders, unless you don;t want to for some reason hmmm
Since Gary is not posting yet here is my result since June 29 3448 shares to date profit 4.50 , slide rule says 15,556 since june 29. Lets see your results please post. esp you Big Daddy.
Ridn the Brronco
Mustang Sally
I’ll update monthly. For one thing I don’t have enough time to update and post the spreadsheet everyday. Second one or two winning trades is meaningless. Gloating over your first winning trade is foolish. You haven’t hit your first cold streak yet. You will though. Everyone does. That’s why the contest lasts a year. I want to show traders just how hard it is to make consistent money over a longer term basis. Not just get lucky once or twice.
Gary I am with you , not gloating just want to shut those up who spout about a bogus trade, I will be keeping track myself. Now Gary for one who gloats when you call a bottom , why do you want to call me out when I call the bottom on dust , just sayin Gary. Secondly Gary you don’t know anything about me for all you know, I could be a retired seasoned currency trader just bored . I will let the numbers talk, how about you.
Mustang Sally
My bio is right at the top of the page.
Let’s not get too excited about THE CONTEST 2.5 days into it. But we UNDERSTAND SALLY, you think you are king kong at this point.
Well, that pretty much does it for the bull market in the PM arena for the immediate future. The sentiment has been killed off for good at this point. Oh sure, there will be a counter trend rally here and there that traders can capitalize on as we rise from the ashes, but the downward trend has no bottom in sight. Miners just look dangerous at this point.
Gold bulls were 18% on Friday, have to figure it dropped significantly after today. You only need a little under 600% in JNUG to get your timing mistake from last September corrected. Split adjusted from 23 to 4.20 now. Not something that is going to happen anytime this year barring the start of WW3. 5 months since JNUG was registering anything beyond a pulse of being solvent. Another split could be on the horizon in the near future. Absolutely ZERO momentum in the miners, except downwards since Feb. JNUG is sitting at $3 off the year low and we still have a month of downside. Not exactly a healthy market.
Nice job Gary on being one of the very few analysts ANYWHERE that called it to a T.
Don’ t get discouraged. This is just a normal intermediate correction. We needed one after gold rallied for almost 6 months. I doubt gold will drop below the December low, although I’m pretty sure the miners will.
Now traders just need to be patient and wait for either the dollar to top, or sentiment to reach extremes. As of Friday intermediate degree sentiment was dead neutral at 50%. We need it to drop below 30%. That’s going to either require 4-8 weeks of grinding lower, or a very sharp crash. I expect it will be the former.
Thanks Gary, I need a pep talk! LOL
Gary: Sorry can’t agree with you. The usd is going to suffocate everything in its track. There is no gold bull just a bunch of bear rally’s. even the one in 2001 – 13. You will lose all your money and your clients on this buy the dip mode. Just my opinion sitting bored in an old folks home.
Ridn the bear
Mustang Sally
We aren’t trying to buy the dip yet. I wait until sentiment gets extreme and everyone is bearish before I try to buy. Clearly that hasn’t happened yet. And despite a very tough year and a half we are still up over 144% in the metals. No one is losing all their money.
As a matter of fact a sub just emailed me the other day to thank me as he has made enough money to buy a second home in the mountains.
I keep telling people you don’t have to get the exact bottom (or top) like everyone on here is obsessed with. You just need to get “close enough” to make money. Good money.
Gary, your return as mentioned is good, the problem with your strategy now is that you are trading this as a bull market which it is not , that is my opinion.
results will prove it wrong or right. Be careful these next few months. trading will not be as easy as it was in 2016
Mustang Sally
You might as well just go back to your original name pedestrian.
I am currently 6526.90 down.
Up $10,179 to date.
SLV is now only .39 higher than December lows. WOW. Almost ready to give it away. If the general public would ever wake up and start buying physical, it would be crazy.
Ahem, Gary, someone listened to you about energy! 🙂
Hey Mustang Sally,
You may have gotten your start date wrong. You’ve indicated a $4.50 profit with DUST around $33.50, which would mean buying in the $29.00 range. But the low for DUST on June 29 was $30.62.
Hey Bob: I emailed gary on June 28, he has it, the open of June 28. Ask Gary to verify if you are concerned, got my date wrong, sorry
Good Luck on your trading
Mustang Sally
I have made no trades. My strategy is 80% patience 20% skill. I am waiting for Garys triangle.
We`re still in a bear market ToTo.
https://invst.ly/49g6g
But we have another secondary trend line to look at. (With tails included)
Gary, can’t reply to your post , but sorry not Pedestrian, just check my ip address. I am just expressing my opinion on your open forum.
Mustang Sally ( not Pedestrian)
I did check the IP 🙂
good so you know I am not Pedestrian.
Mustang Sally
They are the same.
Gary, please lets be honest here , they are not unless he is out in front of my house using my ip address
Oh the other difference I make money and Pedestrian could trade himself out of a bag, don’t degrade me.
Mustang Sally
It was kinda obvious….just sayin
We should get our confirmation soon. 🙂
Gary, Nice call on gold going down after trend line break.
Avi Gilburt at seeking alpha is getting smacked down
by posters for saying that gold had bottomed last week
& was about to go parabolic. Sucks to be Avi today.
It couldn’t happen to a more deserving guy 🙂
Elliot wave is rubbish it only works sometimes. I was laughing at his stupid charts. I don’t like Avi attitude, seems like an argumentative person
Avi made a call? Unqualified?
So, Pedestrian is really Mustang Sally, or vice versa. I guess Pedestrian must have had a sex change, or perhaps he goes both ways. Mustang Sally (formerly Pedestrian). 😎
I have gold at 18% bulls, silver at 22%. The only things worse are the dollar and vix.
And soybeans.
See you in a while: Now that I have got my trade documented by Gary, no need to banter , will be back when I need to sell my dusty. In the meantime I hope you find the real Pedestrian.
Mustang Sally rides out to the sunset.
SCCO Southern Copper:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SCCO&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p12420698402
Looks like copper is speaking. A very buyable chart with the worlds biggest pure copper play. Wasn’t on my radar but itis now. If “every bull has a copper top” were going to have quite a ways to go UP.
CYclicals for the 2nd half with maybe the return of the infrastructure and Trump trade?
Correct me if i am wrong, but i think you said you would be out of miners/metals until around july 7. I think that was end of feb, early march? the way things are playing out, they may turn out to be a terrific call, if i am correct with my memory.
Are you still of the same thinking?
Thanks for the response. No pm miners since mid Feb waiting for later on in July and indication of insider buying. None yet. Was curious about how industrial metals were doing and surprised by the copper charts. If Gary is right about the strong dollar it will be interesting to see how it does over the next few weeks. Own one copper stock but not this one. Copper the bell weather for late cycle stocks and if it’s not imploding we’ve got another strong leg up imo.