338 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY

  1. mustang sally

    Happy Weekend everyone:

    As Gary won’t post the results of our on line gambling contest , I wish everyone would post at the end of the week, I am not boasting but i would rather know who is the bluffer and who is not. Lets lift the curtain and see who is real, that includes you Gary, how is everyone’s 100,000 look.

    I am up 18,000 , bot the lot at 29.50 dust

    Riding the dusty

    Mustang Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      Ped,
      You are wasting your time gloating (a male testosterone driven trait BTW). You are a perma bear so you will hold your short too long, get caught at the bottom, and give back a big chunk of your gains. Then you won’t be able to go long when you need to. The big money is always made on the long side.

      This is my prediction. We’ll see if I’m right next July.

      1. mustang sally

        No gloating Gary, give it a rest Gary I do not have the same Ip as Ped, and you know it, lets just have an honest to goodness gunfight, put your numbers up at the end of the week (100,000)
        and I will too. No name calling just your guns. Lets let the numbers do the talking.

        You are the one who started it the contest saying no one can beat you. Your on I accept your challenge

        Mustang Sally

        gunslinging is my game

        1. Gary Post author

          The contest lasts one year, not one week. Anyone can get lucky for a week or two. I want to see how many people actually make any long term gains.

          We’ve had more than enough BS from virtually everyone every time they get a win. I want to see how much they lose when they have a losing trade and where they stand at the end of the year when all the winning trades and all the losing trades are added up.

          1. mustang sally

            Gary, why wait till the end of the year, I do not want to find out I have been talking to fluffers after 1 year. It is understood it is a year, but you don’t go to the racetrack and not watch the race. Just put your numbers of every week, it is a horse race and lets have some fun, I am here for a year Gary, lets post every week,

            You are so confident, this should be a cake walk for you.

            Slingin Sally

  2. AT

    I am up just a small 2380 from DUST trade, and currently 100% in JNUG as I assumed this is the ICL bottom

    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46

    profit 2380
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

    1. Christian

      Too soon for an ICL AT. We’re either at the beginning of a bloodbath, which means Gold and Miners will continue to drop well into next week, or we could be looking at a bounce out of a DCL as early as next week sometime. Either way, I would keep a close watch on all LONG trades πŸ™‚

      1. pk

        Christian, right with you. I can’t 100% confidentially make this prediction but I think miners are going to drop a quick 8-10% in the next week. Or we will find a short term bottom in the next day or two. Posted some charts on goldtadise. Key inflection point.

  3. Christian

    On another note.. I have not once abused anyone on this site. I’m all about constructive criticism and friendly banter thrown in with a little sarcasm to boot πŸ™‚ That being said.. just because Gary is too lazy to clean up his blog doesn’t mean I’m gonna sit back and let these PARASITES pollute this place with their asinine BS.

    KEEP IT FUN & FRIENDLY folks.. or else I’ll be one of the first ones to tell you to F*CK OFF!

    And you can go ahead and call it Ego, or testosterone – good one Gary – it makes absolutely no difference to me.

    Thx

    1. mustang sally

      Hey young Surfer: You like to charge a subscription, why don’t you get in the contest and post your position every week, and why not bring your other subscription mates with you. We can solve the shenanigans once in for all, No wave shit, cylce crap, moon rays, icl,lcl, morphing wedges. Just good old results.

      You in young Surfer

      Riding the wave

      Mustang Sally

        1. jake

          I don’t use or cotton to chart patterns but if you find them predictive that great. If anyone can draw tangential lines what advantage does that give you?

          1. Gary Post author

            I tend to agree. The banksters can paint the charts to say whatever they want them to say.

            They manufactured a very convincing rally on June 6th to sucker in bag holders and allow them to load up on shorts.

          2. Christian

            The banksters can also stretch or warp a cycle until your eyes pop out! The Buck is a prime example. But if you use chart patterns in conjunction with every other tool on the planet; it actually works out pretty well πŸ™‚

            Does it work every single time? No, of course not — nothing does.

          3. Christian

            JAKE — Two words: Inflection points. And possible SUPPORT and RESISTANCE. It works.. I use them all the time.

  4. jake

    So a quick bounce here would portend another cycle into a bigger bottom with some ending action, that puts it out another 60 days around the end of August?

    1. Gary Post author

      This all ties in with the dollar & stock cycle.

      Lets assume that the dollar hasn’t quite finished this daily cycle yet. It still has maybe 5-7 days of all out panic. That should take down the stock market into its YCL as well and we could see money flee into gold for 5-7 days.

      Then once the dollar bottoms and starts the next intermediate rally gold turns and produces a second left translated cycle into a final ICL.

      Current intermediate term sentiment on the dollar is at 36% bulls. We need to shed another 6% to get to truly excessive bearish sentiment. It could happen this week.

  5. mustang sally

    Gary, I will invite all the subscription writers to participate in your showdown, including your friend Avi. You post the results o a monthly basis and I will keep posting weekly for entertainment, And by the way Gary you are acting a little childish, my game shit. What sandbox are you in.

    Let the game begins

    Mustang Sally

      1. Christian

        Ped — People who are making real money don’t give a hoot about an online gambling game. For those of you who haven’t figured it out yet.. This contest is a SET-UP!

        Gary wants to tell everyone ‘I told you so’ Lol! That’s all this is πŸ™‚

        Trading doesn’t have to be hard if you follow a few simple rules. Period.

        1. Gary Post author

          No, that’s not what this is about.

          I’m is going to show people just how hard it is to make, and more importantly keep money in the market.

          I’ve had my fill of all the clowns claiming to win 100% of the time. The real fact is that you can win 90% of the time and still lose money over time. Or you can lose 80% of the time and make money over time.

          I want real time calls from traers. That includes entries and exits. And most importantly position size.

          It doesn’t mean diddly squat if you win 10 times in a row with small trades and then lose on a larger trade that wipes out all of your gains. Everyone has hot streaks. Whats more important is how much you give back when you hit a cold streak.

          So real time calls. Entries, exits and position size. The contest will run for a year so everyone will have plenty of hot and cold streaks. In the end we’ll see how many of you really make money.

          1. mustang sally

            Gary, did you see my comment below, maximum 4 trades /week. Keeps the book keeping down to a min.

            4 trade Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s not as useful as it used to be. Big money can stretch cycles to fleece traders. Many cycles in our modern markets are evolving and stretching to the point where normal cycle durations can be up to twice as long as before. Often there will be 1-3 false swings before a cycle bottoms.

      Basically when the SEC banned short selling in financials back in 2008 that was the end of free markets as we know them. At that point it became anything goes as long as the banks make money.

      We are playing on a very unlevel playing field and one of the biggest components for any strategy to make money nowadays is to second guess when and where the interventions are likely to occur.

      1. Robert

        For this contest we are using 100k in portfolio correct? Just give a price bought at for the day paper trades and email it to u? I am going to participate

  6. Bluebellkid

    Over the past eight years (2009-2016), the stock market has suffered a pullback that bottomed in the summer each year (though it didn’t necessarily start in the summer). For summer, we used the official designation: usually June 21 to Sept. 21 or 22. Let’s look at the summer lows through the lens of the Nasdaq.
    In 2016, the summer low came early, June 27, and represented an 8.2% pullback from the previous high.
    In 2015, the summer nadir arrived Aug. 24. The pullback was 18%, thanks to the flash crash.
    In 2014, the summer low was pegged Aug. 7. The pullback could barely be called a pullback β€” down 3.6%.
    In 2013, the summer low came early, June 24. The pullback was 6.7%.
    In 2012, the summer low also was early, June 28. The pullback was 10.1%.
    In 2011, the summer low appeared Aug. 9. The pullback was 19%.
    In 2010, the summer low was on July 1. The pullback was 18.7%.
    In 2009, the summer low rolled in July 8. The pullback was 8.1%.
    The median pullback in these eight years was 8% to 10%. The average pullback was 11.5%.

  7. mustang sally

    Gary<

    To make this simple and easy for you lets eliminate day traders, put a maximum of 4 trades per week. If you can't make money on 4 trades a week and make good money you are not a trader but a gambler. No dart shooters

    4 trade Sally

  8. Don

    I don’t think Mustang Sally is Pedestrian. Ped could never go for more than few days without insulting someone and MS doesn’t seem to be inclined to be insulting. Ped also loved to ramble with lengthy paragraphs and to pretend he was a skilled trader when he was actually just a know nothing. MS tends to be short and to the point. In my opinion, two different people.

    1. Christian

      And yet they have the EXACT same ip addy Don?

      Unless Gary is ‘bs-ing’ everyone in which case you might have a point. Although.. People are characteristically very fascinating and they will go to unimaginable lengths just to fill that void.

      My theory is this: Pedestrian realized he wasn’t that popular after all and decided to switch it up because he is a very lonely [and small] man and doesn’t have anything else better to do πŸ™‚ That’s also a possibility.

      I just don’t buy into the whole Mustang Sally sitting in a retirement home trading precious metals in between re-runs of Bonanza. Gimme a F*ckin’ break, Lol!

    2. Gary Post author

      Ped has multiple IP addresses. The latest one changed to 172.68.58.173 right before Ped disappeared and Sally showed up.

      Sallys IP is 172.68.58.17

      Maybe Sally lives right next door to Ped and is using his network, but I doubt it.

      1. Don

        Ok, those two IP addresses are from the same internet provider in the San Francisco area and both have the same longitude and latitude. The provider must be providing dynamic addresses (changing periodically). As it is highly unlikely Pedestrian and Mustang Sally are using the same provider with the exact same longitude and latitude, it can be deduced that they are the same person.
        Welcome back jerk.

        1. mustang sally

          Donny, whoa your horses, one is your making quite a few assumptions, first is that Gary gave you factual ip addresses, if you really want a good forum as you mentioned why are you calling me a jerk, have I not provided some interesting facts.

          Dr.Sally the resident psysh

  9. mustang sally

    Cowboy Chris

    Gary does not know what an ip is . When you get to my age and in a home you gotta find something exciting to do. Ped could not trade is way out of a bag, me I will post my results and you can make up your own mind.
    Go back and read my post and you might learn a few things. You never know who is posting that’s the beauty of the interweb. I could be a wanker or I could have a phd in economics . Who knows just read the post without some stupid judgement. That’s life.

    Dr. Sally

    1. mexican

      Hey Sally Girl!!
      If you are indeed Ped just own up and be done with it. Got to say though i like the way you write!
      Mexican riding into the sunset!! LOL!!

      1. mustang sally

        My friend Mexy

        Gary is not living up to the word honest, he put up a bogus ip address and he knows it , If you want to call me Ped go ahead if it makes everyone feel better. I see young surfer will not take the Gary challenge,

        Sally with my sidekick Ped

          1. mustang sally

            Well Ped and I live a few thousand km’s away( thats a hint for anyone) and Gary your tactic is just a diversion.

            I will play your on line gamble game and post my results. If you need to call me Ped call me

            Mustang Ped, does that make you happy

            Mustang Ped

          2. Gary Post author

            The definition of gambling would imply you have something to lose. I’m not even asking you to make real trades, only real time entries and exits including position size. Solely for illustrating to everyone how hard this game really is to make, and more importantly keep gains.

            The only one with money on the line is me as I’m offering the cash prize to the winner.

      1. mexican

        Christian,
        I hope we will get along better, I enjoy this blog and some of the info is useful fore sure! I am a subscriber to Gary and respect his wisdom, as well as you! I almost think you are 2 in the same LOL!!
        lets make this a winning Blog full of great info and intelligence,Help each other and hope for the best in this crazy gambling game!
        Think I need to jump on my Harley and just go for a nice ride!

  10. troybombardia

    I completely agree with you Gary. If the S&P i about to make a correction it has to do so ASAP. July earnings season is coming up, and it’s really hard for the S&P to fall on earnings season.

    Otherwise, we’ll have to wait until September/October. By the end of October, this will be the longest “small rally” in the S&P’s history. That’s a TIME extreme

    http://bearmarket.net/the-stock-market-will-probably-sell-off-in-early-july/

    1. Steffmeister

      #Bluebellkid
      “In 2015, the summer nadir arrived Aug. 24. The pullback was 18%, thanks to the flash crash.”

      Yepp, remember this one. I counted 3140 days from the date of a crash in the movie The Forecaster by Martin Armstrong. 3140 is Pi x 100. Forked in 25k in a x15 bear certificate a couple of weeks before the event. Amazing we got rolling cycles in markets.

      According to my own work (if it still works) we will see a turn around in Gold&Silver next week, that would surprise many I guess.

      On the other hand. The chart Gary posted about the triangle is a good one and describes a very plausible development of the current situation.

  11. Mritunjay

    Gary, thoughts on the recent silver flash crash? I think prices will be heading below the crash low of 14.6$ to clear out all the kneejerk buyers and then some more… before bottoming for this cycle.

    1. mustang sally

      Mornin Jay,

      Not sure why you call it a flash crash, I would call it a mild drop compared to what you are going to experience in the near future and near future I mean perty darn soon

      Just rockin with my alter ego Ped

      Mustang Sally

    1. Marc

      Agreed. I wish Gary wouldn’t do these stupid dick measuring contests. It just invites insecure people with too much free time. A better way would be a contest with an entry fee, a prize and a separate forum.

      1. Gary Post author

        This is ridiculous. How much better can I make it. A real contest with a real prize, with no entry fee.

        The only reason not to enter is because one is afraid they aren’t going to live up to all the hype they’ve created about their trading abilities. Notice none of the newsletter writers will enter.

        I make these real time trades day in and day out. Apparently Surf is as well. I have to give him Kudos for actually putting his ass on the line. It says more about him than 99% of the other newsletters out there.

        1. Marc

          It’s not the contest but the fact that this forum is littered with useless information. I prefer to read what people think about the markets and how to trade it rather than who has the high score. I thought you were going to wind this blog down?

  12. Bob

    Ped/Sally: You realize anybody who bought JDST and held through is ahead of you at the moment. I would have been further ahead of you, had I not been focusing on my own account on Friday and totally forgot about the contest until Friday night. That may work in my favour or not on Monday morning. Timewise, we’re about 2.7% +/- into the game.

    1. mustang sally

      Cowboy Bob: I sure do and congrats , as Gary said its not the first trade its how you manage the many ones coming up, As I see tho bull unfold I will switch to jdst and jnug. Timing and risk

      Rockin in the home

      Mustang Sally

  13. Bob

    I had a bit of a blip at the beginning when I went 50/50 combined with an energy stock. Made a very small amount on the energy before switching to 100% JDST so I’m confident there are many ahead of me. You’re not one of them though.

  14. LiesandDamnLies

    Posted to Gary

    From now to early September I think that things will get interesting in a couple of directions so this is for the record. From an Aussie maybe Brumbies Lies competing against Mustang Sally.

    I would like to throw my hat into the ring for your competition I am also going on holidays for three weeks north to escape the Canberra Aussie winters ( the older I get the more the cold affects me as I am a golfer. Tee’ing of in -6 Celsius has lost it’s glow).

    So I am putting in my bids at the the closing the US closing prices for friday the 8th of July Also the closing prices for the Aussie stocks ( July 8th) I am interested in.
    * Buy DGLD 366 shares at 54.57 cost 19,973 approx 20% of porfolio approx
    * Buy DUST 570 shares at 35.08 cost 19,995 20% of porfolio approx
    * Buy JDST 260 shares at 76.17 cost 19805 20% of porfolio approx

    Further three Aussie listed stock I will quote the Aussie price the exchange rate USD/Aud and the US price for the sale.
    * SMN.AX AUD 1.22 USD/AUD conversion 1.3129 US price 0.93 usd cost USD Buy 16000 SMN.AX at USD 0.93 cost 14,880 USD 15% portf.
    * IPD.AX AUD 0.75 USD/AUD conversion 1.3129 USD price.0.575 Buy 26000 IPD.AX at 0.575 USD cost 14950 USD for 15% Portfolio.
    * NAN.AX AUD 2.52 USD/AUD conversion 1.3129 USD price.1.92 Buy 5200 IPD.AX at 1.92 USD for cost of 9,985 USD for 10% Portfolio.
    cheers Lies

    PS I agree with Gary that the next couple of weeks could b good for the SM.

  15. cazabrujas

    Hey Sally,

    I am curious. What does a person who’s already in a home get out of stock trading? Is it just entertainment or you are trying to raise money for something specific?

    Btw, I agree with you that gold is going to drop hard next week, fundamentals and technicals are both ugly right now.

    1. mustang sally

      Hey Caza

      Yes you are correct in many ways, very astute of you. When you get to my age, everyone thinks you are incapable of everything. This is not entertainment for me and yes if you follow me you will find out the answer to your last question, Gary’s site is just my first stop on my quest. I don’t need money, so I have another motive

      Sally on a miission

      1. cazabrujas

        Oooh! Another mystery! Fun! My theory is that you are out for revenge on the people who put you in a home. You are going to become a millionaire and assume a new identity to stage your revenge. Wait, that’s kind of like the plot from “Count of Montecristo” πŸ˜›

        1. mustang sally

          Cowboy Caz:

          I like that story, but I already got the money and there is a motive but not that. I actually like the home I can do what I want and exercise my brain.

          At the end you will be amazed

          Dr. Sally

          1. cazabrujas

            Ok here is another try. You need even more money because you to buy very expensive pagan relics from private collections, which will allow you perform a forbidden ceremony to invoke an entity from another dimension who has invaded your dreams and promised to bring back your youth if you let it into our world, but it’s actually tricking you and once it gets here it will conquer our world. Am I getting close?

      2. mexican

        Sally Ped,
        I pretty sure you are Ped because no other person here ever posted as much as you, instead of long drawn out paragraphs you now post small but very often! Annoying!

  16. RetireYoung

    Reading these posts almost a complete waste of time. This is the only post I’ll do if this nature. We all want the same thing: consistent winning trades. Let’s focus on that. The emotions here are crazy be they hate for different political opinions (media has done a great job brainwashing that camp), chest thumping, damaged egos, etc. Emotions have no room here. A couple of posters are great, see the big picture and aren’t distracted. Namely Z and Goild plus Gary but he gets sucked in to the banter. Let’s be better traders. Much more important then chart analysis. That is the edge.

    1. Christian

      Some of this is probably directed at me so I’m gonna go ahead and give you some perspective.

      I MOSTLY agree with you but what you and others fail to understand is that if you come here to be a disrespectful A**hole or if you’re gonna be abusive to others, then you’re gonna get called out. Period.

      Please understand that there are too many people out there that think they can get away with bad behaviour just because they’re hiding behind an old crusty keyboard — and that’s just not cool. You can call it EGO if you want but it’s important to fight the good fight.. YES, even on a financial blog such as this one πŸ™‚

      If that’s too much for you or any other, then you can go ahead and find another blog to call home.. meaning no one is forcing you to be subjected to any of this. Fair enough?

      Friendly Banter — Ok!
      Abusive Nonsense — Not ok πŸ™

  17. RetireYoung

    I am wondering if we could have just seen an abc-x and are now in c of another abc-x. C might have bottomed in gold on Friday now starting the x. Didn’t make 1207 but close.

    I think GDXJ will drop a little more to stronger support before bouncing, if it bounces.

  18. mustang sally

    Caz my friend,

    You are very close, I do buy relics and give them to deserving youths, the rest I will leave to your imagination.
    Now on with the real game.

    Call for the week, I think the gold bugs are going to get a rude awakening

    Rockin the dust

    Mustang Sally

    1. cazabrujas

      Well, we have a FOMC member speaking Monday, and Yellen speaking Tuesday and Wednesday, I believe. If they push gold lower and miners below key resistance levels (20.89 for GDX) we should be making lots of money on the short side next week. It would help a lot if the yen keeps falling with respect to the dollar. We’ll see. It’s going to be a very interesting week.

      1. mustang sally

        Hey Caz,

        I seem to have lost my friend Big Daddy, kind of board today, I see you and I might be on the same page, I kinda show silver cracking down to 10.78 toute suite. might be my first reverse trade then.

        Whats your thought young man

        Mustang Sally

        1. cazabrujas

          I think we need to take it one step at a time. No point in speculating so far in the future. Let’s see what happens at the next support level and then on to the next. Also, keep your eyes peeled for a rebound in the SM. I think it’s really iffy right now, but if stocks begin to bounce convincingly there are several companies that might rocket up in the technology sector (of the top of my head NVDA and AAOI)

          1. mustang sally

            My friend, I don’t think it will be to far in the future, It is interesting that you said one step at a time, I’m afraid it will be one step. We are not in the norm anymore, as the great Einstien said ” We cannot solve our problems with the same thinking we used when we created them,”

            Thats why I keep saying throw out these indicators, when your crashing it really does not matter what your dashboard says.

            Mustang Sally

          2. cazabrujas

            While I would benefit from a sudden crash greatly, I will have to respectfully disagree with that idea. In what timeframe do you expect silver to crash to 10.78? (That’s 31% away from the current price!)

          3. cazabrujas

            Just read that Canada is very probably going to raise its interest rates for the first time in 7 years. Next week is getting more interesting by the minute.

          4. cazabrujas

            Bluebell, it seems like AAOI might get excellent earnings, so it might be a good idea to get in before that happens.

  19. mustang sally

    Caz, How does the end of july sound, ask yourself what are all these subscription writers going to when the can’t use their hocus pocus. I have challanged five sub writers to enter in Gary’s online bingo, do you know how many will take the challenge 0. That’s right 0. All say it again the gold bull will start when all the letter writers give up , plain and simple. Because the next 1.5 years will eat them for lunch. They will put all their subscribers in the poverty line.

    Ranting Mustang
    Rockin the house

    1. cazabrujas

      I really doubt silver is dropping 30% in 3 weeks. There would have to be an incredibly strong catalyst for that to happen. If it does happen I would become a millionaire so that would be nice.

      1. mustang sally

        That is wonderful Caz, I hope you will donate some to my charity, The next challenge Caz will you be able to trade at the right time as volatility will reign supreme, this trade was the easiest.

        Mustang Sally

          1. mustang sally

            Ok, you called my bluff it is not going down. My meds are reacting badly today, I can’t remember what I said or wrote. my apology.

            Sally on her meds

  20. mustang sally

    My friend Caz,

    I will go one better and tell you the shit will end November 2018, make sure you mark that on your calender. Gary’s contest could of not started on a better date.

    Bring it on
    Mustang Sally

      1. Gary Post author

        You need to look at more than just the shorts. You need to look at the longs as well. It’s the net position between the two that counts.

        When the Blees rating goes over 90 then we’re usually close to a bottom. As of Friday it was 76. I expect by the time gold tags the lower triangle trend line the Blees rating should be close to 100. But I wouldn’t look for a final low until gold reaches that trend line.

          1. Gary Post author

            The net short position has been as low as -2900 at the 2015 bottom.

            We may get a bounce this week, but I really wouldn’t look for a final bottom until everyone is as negative about gold as they are oil.

            Usually at bottoms no one is bullish except me. There are still quite a few trying to call the bottom. So I doubt sentiment is bearish enough yet.

  21. matrix

    too many bull*it posts that nothing have to do with trading or technicals. Why dont you include those type of posts somewhere else. You really piss off many. Hope GS throw you away.

    1. mustang sally

      Mr. Matrix

      I don;t believe in all this hocus pocus you guys throw out, lets just get into the online gambling game. My posts are actually quite technical if you are referring to me.

      Mustang Sally

      1. matrix

        you should be the first to leave….!!!!!you are pain in the ass……You should pay $50 dollars to each one in the blog for each of your nuisance posts…..You would not be tolerated elsewhere….for less money contribution. Just go away.

        1. mustang sally

          Dear Matrix:

          I have been very cordial with you, why get so nasty just because someone takes an opposite view to you. Like I say to Gary get your results in every week and let the numbers talk.

          Mustang Sally

    1. mustang sally

      Mr Matrix Sir.

      I know you are talking oil. agree with you but looks like a tidal wave down could hit as low as 21.

      Riden the wave

      Mustang Sally

  22. roadrunner

    Mustang sally,

    i understand what you are doing…so…who are the other letter writers you have invited to Gary’s challenge? I am guessing surf as you invited on this blog..but who else?

    1. mustang sally

      Roadrunner, It is a waste of time, they know they can’ t expose themselves. Many have a run and trade it all back; If you are good trader you don’t need to be a sub writer. period unless you got a big ego which needs rubbiing. I guess its just me and Gary, doing a good old gun battle. at least Gary;s got the guts do it, so good on Gary and the other are just plain sissies

      Gun slinging Sally

  23. butch

    I have no positions. I have no trades. I am waiting for gary’s weekly 3-3-3-3-3 triangle to complete. We are now on c of D wave and need one more a,b,c, which means at least 3 more weeks. Most likely 8 weeks.

  24. Gary Post author

    It’s not looking good for the ICL in the stock market tonight. If it doesn’t happen early this week then it isn’t going to happen as we will start to get too close to the next FOMC meeting. The PPT always makes sure the market is at or near all time highs for FOMC meetings.

    1. Emptyness

      Sorry Gary, sounds like nonsense. Do you know anyone from PPT ?
      “The PPT always makes sure the market is at or near all time highs for FOMC meetings.”
      That’s a statement without any proof. The same like “gold always rallies after full moon”.

      1. Gary Post author

        There are no “proofs” in this business. There are only tendencies, odds, and historical precedents. If you are looking for a sure thing you need to find a different line of work.

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    Heey!
    A lot of nonsense talk on the blog!
    Render your opinions w/ argument and cut the rest.

    PS: I personally also believe that M.Sally is Pedestrian by certain psychological traits which he tries to dampen (one can escape from prison but not from him/herself) while making efforts to paint an overt style different from Pedestrian’s, but all that is irrelevant. As long as M.Sally issues an opinion w/ argument he is fine w/ me at least, he can also be Trump or Queen Elisabeth.

  26. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY:
    I have a proposition to you: to warn people to issue personal opinions concerning markets and opinions from other domains only if they are linked to Lady Market in some way (eg, speaking about Trump if that has to do w/ a potential market move or about astronomy if one thinks that an incoming solar storm will kill all power grid and put mankind in chaos etc).
    Gloating and bragging would be allowed provided it occurs within the precincts of issuing a market-related opinion.
    One warning allowed. Second warning would imply restricting that person from writing on the blog (by “person” meaning also a related IP address).

  27. zkotpen

    I don’t know about any sort of “rules”.

    All I can say is, it’s pretty clear: BigDaddy, Mustang Sally, Don, and primetime are net negative contributors to this blog. They make it a much less interesting page. I can page down thru all of them, as I do — no problem. The problem is, they generate a lot of non-versation. So it becomes possible or likely that real market discussion gets drowned out in all of their noise.

    1. mustang sally

      Cowboy Pen>
      I take great offense to me being net negative, how in the world can you make that statement, look at my bingo results, there must be some substance to my post, Just in life many humans can;t manage an irritant even though it may be telling them something, think about this >

      Buccin the Bronco

      Mustang Sally

  28. zkotpen

    PS: I was going to post some observations about the dollar index yearly and intermediate cycles instead of the above, but it just seems pointless to post anything relevant to markets, if it’s gonna get drowned out in all of the noise.

  29. zkotpen

    I don’t know if it was intentional, but Mustang Sally has effectively sabotaged this entire thread, and perhaps the entire blog since her arrival.

    Ride on there Mustang Sally. Win the contest. Yippee for you.

    Your prize: You and BigDaddy have usurped Gary’s blog.

    Good luck to you!

    1. mustang sally

      Dear Pen: I am competely bamboozled by you, is this not a place to help you make money or have I come in your sandbox and you don’t like it.

      Sandbox Sally

    1. Steffmeister

      Sorry for my childish post, I am also affected by the drop in quality on this blog lately. Maybe it’s a reflection of the current state in the West?

      Sweden is no different, alot of orchs in the shire bcos of lame management for a decade or two, maybe three.

      1. mustang sally

        Sir Steffi:

        Like I said to zpen, post your thoughts on the dollar and we can have a discussion, is that not quality, sometimes you need to listen to the little irritants.

        MS

      1. mustang sally

        Cowboy Butch how appropriate,

        So by all of your comments, you are all gold bulls not market traders. I am not either which is why money will be made. No matter how much reasoning you will let your gold mind control you. As example go to the pick up sticks club and read about fools who look at a gold chart and come up with 1000 reason its going , my best is a morphing triangle.

        Charting Sally

    1. mustang sally

      Jake, they have been for a long while, it is just now you get to see the fireworks, go way back in my posts and you will see June 29 was the big reveal.

      MS

  30. mustang sally

    Morphing triangles, it has the same effect as the drug with the same sounding drug. While were on to pick up sticks here is my other favorite FBO, give me a a break.

    If you believe in all this jibber jabber your going to go broke.

    MS

  31. mustang sally

    Bingo> I hear crickets

    This place is just another gold bugs closet you all like to huddle together and whisper sweet nothings to each to other.
    How about all those poor souls who listened to the great gold whisperer Sinclair. how many people do you think he killed.

    Open your minds

    Dr Sally

  32. Steffmeister

    Hey Sally Sallad Head, I do not think that horses are good at trading πŸ˜›

    Ok a fair question for you MS, which asset is the most precious on the planet?

    Regarding the dollar, I posted a week ago three tops and a domed house that’s my outlook for the dollar. It’s bearish. Before that I thought a double top was possible!?

    We will see the SDR replace the dollar in the roaring 20ies, thats my guess long term.

    1. mustang sally

      Monsier Meister:

      First anwer. whats a horse got to do with it

      Second: Again sorry, not on your side with the dollar, rather than making a picture, look at the reason why the dollar needs to rise in the world markets.

      MS

  33. zkotpen

    Mustang Sally,

    I seem to recall the definition of harmony as, “convenience of proportion and correspondence of some things with other things.”

    I just don’t consider ‘over the top’ to be a convenient proportion.

    1. zkotpen

      I would dial up the relevant,

      and dial down the irritant.

      And yes, I do believe there is an underlying collaborative spirit on this blog.

      Why don’t you contribute to that?

  34. Nada

    Just my 2 cents; I am not sure what all the MS bashing is about. I have not seen this individual attack anyone for their viewpoints. I know there was some exchanges between MS and BD, but nothing out of line. Yes Mustang Sally has been gloating a bit, but this is *nothing* in comparison to how some folks post as if they know exactly what the market is going to do – that is FAR more dangerous than anything MS has contributed.

    Lets see how the challenge plays out over the next year. Gary I know you stated that you will post results each month, but how many contestants do we have competing?

  35. mustang sally

    Zpen: Harmony is wonderful thought but it happens only for a short period before randomness starts taking place, that is evolution and right now the market and world is far from harmony.

    MS

  36. Steffmeister

    oups …

    The central banks are a powerful enemy to challenge a duel

    Our most precious asset is TIME and what we make of it, we got a limited amount of time and I do not want to spend it by looking at a screen xx hours per day. So I am trying to find the perfect balance point between non-screen/screen life.

    My plan from the beginning was to buy high quality stox and just wait, being patient for years with my core holdings. Less stressful, less screen time and probably more profitable in the long run.

    I think Gary calls it Old Turkey πŸ™‚

  37. Nada

    We have a swing low in GDX and GDXJ is trying to oblige. Silver 4h chart looks good, so lets see how this plays out. I would wait for confirmation in miners with a close above the 10ema.

  38. roadrunner

    @matrix…you were calling slv at 14.42….we hit 14.44 today. Nice call.

    nada a question for you or anyone else who is into charts. now the composition on gdxj has changed, do you factor that into your charting? or does it make no difference?

  39. Nada

    Good morning MS. I am not sure if you are taking your morning nap, but curious if you sold your DUST position or if you are going to continue to ride that bronco? In regards to cycle analysis, what is in question is.. Do we have a bounce with a new daily cycle or is this gold/silver coming out of an ICL?

    I have no idea to be honest and in my opinion it is going to be tough to figure out as sentiment is good enough for ICL and so are COTs, but there is always a possibility this is just a new daily cycle (or quick bounce). GL

    1. mustang sally

      My friend Nada

      I am actually adding right now putting in some fire power jdst in my own fun account, not my online bingo contest as I am maxed, this is just technical selling at the 200 day on the dust daily.
      I believe this a bull in dust so you buy the dips.

      Ask me anytime, I will answer you

      Riden the bronco

      Mustang Sally

      1. Nada

        Good luck MS. The exits are always the hardest parti n trading – to take profits or let em ride. I typically like to take some profit off the table quickly, but hey when we have monopoly money for the contest, might be a good idea to swing for the fences if you are confident in your trade.

  40. bluelagoon

    Article of the same opinion as many other folks here – “don’t buy gold yet” –
    http://www.valuetrend.ca/dont-buy-goldyet/

    Seems the best spot would be the bottom of the triangle as Gary has been calling for….question is when? Have to watch for that turn…..so Nada – if anything – I think this is a gold bounce vs the end of the ICL.

    1. Nada

      @bluelagoon Yes it may very well be just a bounce or a new daily cycle that left translated. Maybe the close will give us a bit more insight However, though it may be unlikely (and I think it is), this could very will be PM’s coming out of an ICL. They never make it easy. Best of luck.

      1. JJHarmen

        Christian, you are one of the most astute players here. What is your opinion on the stock market? I am thinking after the FOMC meeting, a short position might be prudent.

        1. Nada

          @Steffmeister

          Can you elaborate on your full moon theory? While I typically ignore gravitational forces in relation to stock prices, I am certainly not in any position to discredit possibilities.

          1. Steffmeister

            Nope, not really, it’s just a natural phenomena. You will find it in many areas like in health care. The Dutch analyst Charles Nenner worked as a doctor and he noticed some medical events happened during full moon.

            The moon is just not affecting the water, that would be illogical imo. It’s not just the moon, the whole solarsystem is a giant complex clockwork that is affecting us on a daily/monthly/yearly basis.

  41. JJHarmen

    Where are the regulars this morning? We have heard nothing from Goild, Dboz, Don, Bigdaddy, Primetime, Desertsun, Bluebellkid and a few others.

  42. mustang sally

    So JJ , the stock market like everything else is spinning in the toilet right now, once the usd kicks in gear, you will hear that sucking sound. loud and clear

  43. Lenapowich

    I hope Bigdaddy returns soon. He makes me laugh. He does get calls right but the poor man doesn’t have the patience to hold long enough to make a profit. I am down a little on GDX but I can wait out the drought.

  44. Steffmeister

    Do we have a TURN or just a couple of days of fun?

    These stocks are my flagships in my portfolio:
    B2GOLD: +3%
    Sandstorm Gold: +4.6%
    Yamana Gold: +3.8%

    First Majestic Silver: +3.4%
    Great Panther Silver: +3.3%

    I can afford to avoid +200/300% in return (playing JNUG etc. or penny-stocks), but not to miss a 50-75% future profit. That is my strategy going forward!

  45. mustang sally

    To all who want to listen:

    The rubicon on the usd is 96.40 . Once over and stays all hell will break lose.

    Don’t shoot the messenger Sally

    1. Steffmeister

      Tx for the warning Sally … I have a date later this week, or two dates 15th and 17th I don’t know if it’s a beautiful girl or a witch unfortunately.

  46. RetireYoung

    GDXJ could be just a gap fill but still well below MA’s on longer term charts. Could backtest the trendline it broke on July 3rd which would also put it close (or at) a gap fill at $33.16.

  47. dboz

    Loaded up in the pre-market today with UWT, USLV, JNUG and NUGT. So far I have milk money, then lunch money, now working on dinner. If this keeps up I may even get a treat for myself for dessert.

    MS, I was wondering if you sold your JDST for the contest or are you taking the beat down?

    We are getting close here to a possible upside explosion. NOT there yet, but things are looking a little better. Could be a dead cat bounce, OR, we could be onto something big. Time will tell.

    Not fully loaded here but about 50-60%. Not running stops this time. Tired of that garbage and the spikes to stop you out. Yes, I am into the 3x’s big time. Win big or strike out big time.

    If oil cooperates from here and retests the resistance zone, it should be a nice gainer.

    If SILVER takes off here and leads, well, I like the chances.

      1. Nada

        Yes I remember the bottom comment quite well πŸ˜› I agree, hope BD returns. If I am not mistaken, he was a tad early on his SQQQ position and sold right before it would have made him money. My guess he is going in too large on his initial position and letting emotion control his trade. I prefer options trading to limit the impact of emotion on my trading.

        When you walk up to the black jack table, do you place all your money on the table and say all in on a single hand? Of course not, so why do the same in the SM?

  48. Don

    It’s starting to look like the SM pullback is never going to reach the ‘correction’stage. There hasn’t been much in the way of sector rotation with the tech stock recovering rapidly to it’s status of being a market leader. That has been the case pretty much since 2009. Meanwhile, the sectors that have been the most frustrating for investors since 2012, oil, gas, gold silver, etc, continue to disappoint. It’s hard to say that gold is in a bull market when it is compared to a stock market that has been relentless with very shallow sell offs.

    Personally, this has been the worst year I have experienced in the last twenty years. I hope the second half of 2017 is more rewarding the the first half.

    1. dboz

      Don, if we truly get into bullish mode on any of those, we will also get to the point when the commodities also have minimal pullbacks. Early adopters have an easy train while those who stayed away have to hop on at 100 MPH.

  49. Christian

    GDX — The 30 minute chart looks over extended. If prices remain and consolidate above SUPPORT @ 21.40 then we could be in the beginning stages of a bounce up with an eventual roll-over into an ICL.

    The time to buy Gold folks will be when Sentiment reaches an extreme and weekly stochastics have dropped below 10%. This is not it.

    1. Christian

      And if so.. I’ll close up my position in DUST, switch gears and pick a few shares of NUGT on a re-test of support.

      Just remember — 1 big green candle doesn’t mean jack shit in the Miners unless there is ‘follow through’. 1 juicy green candle can quickly evaporate and turn into a turd the next day, Lol! It’s a gross analogy I know, but I’ve seen it a countless number of times and it smells every single time πŸ™‚

      1. Robert

        No offense but u talk exactly like Gary haha. Your still in DUST? Wow. Yea 1 day doesnt mean anything but gold has not even bounced yet so it looks like more upside left in the miner

        1. Christian

          In all honesty, it’s unintentional.. and yes we are mostly of ‘like mind’ but sometimes I do like to bust his balls πŸ™‚

          btw, I follow a couple of other Analysts that are sorta saying the same thing, so it’s not just Gary and myself. One thing we all have in common is Cycle Analysis.. We are all using the same frame work, so naturally our analysis will often coincide.

          1. Robert

            Im not taking direction from anyone here im just asking opinions. What the f is your problem? I wasnt talking to you so go take your insults elsewhere and dont tell me what I should do. Too much rude people on this blog

          2. jake

            You’re all over the place like big D Robert, only he’s got the cash to blow.
            And you’ve done your share of name calling.

          3. Robert

            I never called no names so dont know what your talking about. If you are having personal problems please dont take it out on me

  50. dboz

    “It’s very rare that I say that bad news is good news, but in terms of the gold market here, this may be one of those times. I was really hoping that we would see an ugly week for gold last week, to allow us to register a fairly rare signal, and fortunately, we’ve got it. Gold ended last week in the red and in doing so recorded its fifth straight weekly decline, something we’ve only seen 11 times in the past 18 years. The results after these signals are quite interesting and tend to be quite positive for gold looking one month ahead. The caveat is that every single time we’ve seen a 5-week losing streak, the close of the 5th week has never marked the bottom, and there’s always been some more pain ahead.”

    Taylor Dart

  51. Nada

    I am suspecting GDX to show up on SOS with a significant number. It appears right before cash close there was a big sell, but will confirm in about an hour.

    1. Don

      I see GDXJ also experienced a sell down in the last few minutes but then recovered by the close whereas GDX did not recover. That could be some big players shifting their marbles from GDX to GDXJ, perhaps expecting better small cap performance in the days ahead. Just speculating.

      1. Nada

        GDXJ didn’t have the buying on weakness that GDX had on Friday – this is why you didn’t see the drop at the close. There was -198million in outflows in GDX today, so it was just a 1 day bounce play for someone.

  52. mexican

    Gold temporary bounce for today and tomorrow, perhaps till Thursday my gut feeling and then the next leg down
    Any thoughts Christian?
    Thanks

  53. Don

    I like to watch the last few minutes of trading on the SM. In bull markets it is quite typical for the markets to move up sharply near the close. However, for the past few weeks, we have been seeing more frequent sell downs in the final minutes. Opening upside gaps or early strength the next trading day has become has become a pattern. Such behavior used to indicate that distribution was occurring, a process that can go on for several weeks. However, given that the markets are now dominated by machines and not by human emotions, I don’t know if the patterns have the same meaning.

        1. Nada

          Hey Matrix, yes that figure is accurate. I see miners day traded frequently and we never know how big their position is. With that said, if we are at close price or higher in the morning, I will be selling my options.

          1. HomerJ

            Like religions, SoS BoW are just fairy-tales. Don’t put your faith in something that is merely an occasional coincidence.

  54. butch

    We need a swift move down to the lower triangle trend line. Otherwise we may be looking at an expanded flat . which would take 8 weeks to complete. In either case I am waiting and willing to miss the 300+ swift move up.

      1. zkotpen

        “Thank you” is an expression of gratitude.

        Kindly consider it as such, and I will be the one honored — if another human being can and will understand exactly what I express, as I express it, without coloring it as something else.

        That happens extremely infrequently.

        (And I don’t particularly like adverbs).

        1. mustang sally

          Zpen:

          I am a person of simple words, the English created this gobegoop to show their superiority to the world, now look at them a third world country waiting to fall in the abys.

          Language does not show intelligence or superiority,

          A simple thanks man is fine me and f the gobblegoop .

          So what the f are you thanking me for.

          Mustang Sally

  55. zkotpen

    Robert,

    I wouldn’t pay attention to Jake. He has provided one valuable post: A link to Seal’s “Soul”, which I absolutely love.

    Otherwise, he’s not added one single insight to markets. He gets “page down”.

    Still, I do recommend you beef up your TA skills. Do not “learn as much as you can”, but just learn the right stuff, and learn it well.

    Good luck.

    And GDX doing what I said was possible or likely in late February:

    Intermediate degree triangle.

    1. Robert

      I am ignoring all rude comments here. Zkot my technical analysis says that the gdx is overbought and it may have a negative bias tomorrow. But on the gold it looks too low to continue shorting. A better level would be 1220+ to reshort. How much more upside left for minders?

  56. zkotpen

    It has taken me a while to actually give a hoot about “the dollar index”. What’s the point? I thought.

    Actually, it is almost a mirror image of EURUSD (correlation coefficient is -0.99), but sort of smoothed out and more elegant chart — easier to read.

    I’m gonna have to say both Gary and Mustang Sally are a bit early on their dollar bottom calls. Gary is sometimes early on such calls, but he’s not a math guy πŸ™‚

    I still see DXY moving toward not just an ICL, but concurrent YCL. And that means I still see EURUSD moving toward its ICH and YCH. Getting close, but doesn’t look like they have arrived yet.

    As for other DXY correlations, well, I monitor two discretely and others by proxy.

    I will comment that daily gold is very weakly POSTIVELY correlated to DXY, and yearly gold is weakly NEGATIVELY correlated to DXY as of July 10 close.

    1. mustang sally

      Zpen

      I did not call a bottom/ In a previous post I said when the usd breaks 96.45 all hell will break lose, then I will call the bottom on usd

      Mustang Sally

    2. zkotpen

      PS: These are my characterizations of correlation coefficients:

      Between -0.49 and +0.49: Not correlated.

      +/- 0.50 to 0.59: Very weakly correlated.

      +/- 0.60 to 0.69: Weakly correlated.

      +/- 0.70 to 0.79: Moderately correlated.

      +/- 0.80 to 0.89: Strongly correlated.

      +/- 0.90 to 1.00: Very strongly correlated.

      There is no eyeball correlation, or what you think is the correlation.

      If you see or think there’s a correlation, then get serious and do the math.

      The good news is, you don’t even need to do the math — just add the correlation indicator on your chart and it cranks out the math for you!

  57. mustang sally

    To All

    As I am bored and can’t sleep here is another marker for the gates of hell , when the spx crosses 2000 and stays under. My markers have been accurate starting with dust which was the first. The domino’s of sheer hell have started.

    Riden the tidal wave of hell

    Mustang shoot em up Sally

      1. mustang sally

        Thank god someone is alive, Caz
        I was just ready to take some sleeping pills, when your old sleep is a workout

        The marker for dust was at 29.00

        Barley standing

        MS

  58. cazabrujas

    Si what’s your target for DUST now? I am going to bed so I won’t be able to keep up the conversation. Sorry, but I would really like to see your target price for it.

  59. jacob2

    LIving thru disruptive technologies in real time. What the potential of EV’s and fracking has done to the price of oil; bitcoin and blockchain is now doing for gold. Goldilox SM doesn’t help ( long). My simplistic take. Wouldn’t be surprized to see a higher low of the JAnuary 16 bottom before this is over. GDX 17 ish?

  60. mustang sally

    Good Day to Everyone’

    I see all the rubicons are lining up with each other, this happens infrequently, to all you star gazers, the stars are lined for the ride to hell.. Just plug my numbers into your charts , the rest will be history,

    Clive Maud is the biggest sub looser out there. he get it right once in a while

    Workin hard this morning

    Mustang Sally

  61. mustang sally

    Some stupidity education for everyone, go over to one of my favorites , Goldie Tent. This morning Biboo is showing extreme chart stupidity, he is making the chart read what he wants, lines can be drawn all over to make your belief happen.

    Picken up sticks

    Mustang Sally

      1. victor

        sorry MS if you offended, I’m at 59 already know what it is…, actually for me sleep is a waste of time. I calculated during our life (1 to 60) we spend 20+ yrs for sleeping

  62. Steffmeister

    Okey okey I took some profit yesterday, +6-7% in one day isn’t bad !

    This is what we all are waiting for, isn’t it?

    http://www.investopedia.com/news/gold-has-broken-down-heres-what-comes-next/?utm_source=chart-advisor&utm_campaign=www.investopedia.com&utm_term=10043471&utm_medium=email

    I’ve got a date on Saturday and another one on Monday, the question is if they are wife material or two pigs with lipstick … I have to kiss them to find out πŸ˜›

  63. Nada

    WSJ SOS for GDX once again gets it correct. I have been following site for over a year and its far more accurate than not when it comes to large BOW or SOS numbers.

  64. Christian

    Tempted to buy some NUGT for the bounce up — what to do what to do πŸ™‚

    People keep asking and the answer is ‘NO’..! The ICL is still ahead of us.

  65. JJHarmen

    I bought 500 [email protected]. I will not keep it if it falls back. Gary may be right about energy being the place to be.

      1. Gary Post author

        The Dow hasn’t even broken out of its Defined bull market Channel yet. Bubbles are characterized by a Breakout from the channel and a massive parabolic move. Stocks have not generated that yet.

        We will see the Dow above $30,000 and probably above $40,000 at the bubble top

      2. Bluebellkid

        They weren’t talking stock market and clearly pointed out that it wont be now or next week but all the signs are there that surfaced before the last crisis.

    1. Nada

      I took profits on the GDX options I had. I was going to wait for the test of the 10ema, but I am too heavy in PM’s (GLD SLV calls), so I needed to lighten up the load. Surprised to see natty up, I bought Oct UNG calls on Monday that are up 67% today – Holding those for a bit since they were a lotto play.

      I hope GDX breaks the 10ema, but not sure it will on first attempt. GL

      1. AT

        sold my all my JNUG at 16.56, will wait for ICL if everybody keeps saying last week wasn’t in yet

        Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
        Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
        Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
        Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
        Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

        1. Steffmeister

          Looking at Gold&Silver ratio, the low might be in, it peaked at 81ish last week. I am not skilled enought to fix a correct count of the waves.

  66. Steffmeister

    So far so good … I am a little bit nervous about the two dates later this week and early next week.

    According to US Stockmarkets, FED has stopped the moneyprinting for quite some time now. However I think NIKKEI is the first one to turn down.

    1. Nada

      Keep in mind Yellen speaks tomorrow and Thursday at 10am Eastern. Her talk on balance sheet can have a potential impact on markets. I wish blackout dates for Fed speakers were 365 days a year.

  67. mustang sally

    Good evening everyone.

    Pretty boring day at the home and the market. Some moving events coming up, which should move some indexes over/below their marker. Gold dipped below my marker 1211 but could not stay. I think the next 2 days should start the water fall. Silver by the way is below its marker it backtested it today, so again a jdst moment

    Riden the dusty

    Ms

    1. Nada

      Hey MS. You still holding the original DUST position or did you take some profit when it was much higher? We have a swing low in gold, but nothing has been written in stone. Hope they are treating you well at the ranch.

      1. mustang sally

        Hello Nada:

        I don’t trade very often, still riding. I am hoping all that yapping in the coming days will be the start of the waterfall.

        Think I will be switching horses around Jul22.

        MS

  68. jacob2

    Copper

    Oil and gold are in the tank but copper is breaking out. Break-outs today in the copper stocks: First Quantum (FM.TO), HudBay (HBM.TO), Western Copper (WRN.TO) and Nevsun (NSU.TO), Along with big moves yesterday in Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) and Southern Copper (SCCO).

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?SCCO,FCX,NSU,WRN.TO,FM.TO,HBM.TO|B|

    Cycle bottoming phase for copper stocks is about over. Will likely buy some of these on a pullback as I don’t like to buy on strength.

    Institutions will likely buy BHP:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BHP&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p42361289328

  69. zkotpen

    Here’s the thing about incorrectly drawn trendlines:

    They break pretty quickly… or at least sooner than people expect. I already said after the April peak that Gary’s trendlines were “not sacrosanct”. I said they would probably both break. The upper trendline has broken, and Gary has adjusted it. And the adjustment is also not sacrosanct.

    The lower one is likely next on the chopping block. Likely to break. 2016 low will probably hold in gold, but not sacrosanct, nor is the 2015 low. An “undercut low” on the multiyear rally does not compromise that rally whatsoever. I’d give it a 50-50 chance, in fact, just based on the fact that the 100 month SMA is still rising.

    How to say that in Gary’s language? The 100 month SMA is “the driver” of the decade bear market in gold.

  70. zkotpen

    Folks,

    We gotta take on board the image I had of “many gurgling, shifting bubbles”.

    When I posted it, an obnoxious bully got flustered and tried to bully it out of existence.

    Regardless of that social nonsense, I ain’t no fortunate son, like the obnoxious bully. I gotta use my skills, which are math and science and creativity. Big obby, on the other hand, can just rely on the collection of silver spoons he was born with to fund one error after another, and give him the sense of entitlement to bully around everything he doesn’t understand. I know, it sounds just like the 1980’s Karate Kid.

    The bubble that people have in mind is this big bubble that just keeps growing and growing and growing, and pressurizing and pressurizing and pressurizing, until it finally explodes in a massive burst. Such bubbles have existed — most recently, tech and real estate.

    But some thoughts on all the shifting sectors in the stock market… Encouraged by an acquaintance, I glanced at them on my charts for the first time over that weekend before my final run-in with big obby. I woke up the next morning, looked at this blog, where people were making the same observations as my acquaintance, and the image just popped into my head:

    I saw a big cauldron — probably the same one used by the witches in MacBeth in my imagination — and the big brew was brewing, simmering, with big bubbles just sort of gurgling as they floated to the surface, not terribly pressurized, just popping rather than massively exploding, and not growing too large before popping. As in the simmering cauldron, as one bubble burst, the next one floated up in its place, while its neighbor bubble on the surface gurgled and popped and so on.

    And one more thing. These bubbles never quite filled up enough, and the air inside them never got hot enough, to enable them to escape the surface tension and float into the air.

    That’s the image that came to mind.

    The recent absence of big obby is so utterly agreeable… good riddance!

  71. zkotpen

    Here’s the thing that’s been on the tip of my tongue for months regarding the less than strong correlation between gold and GDX. The reason I’ve not posted before is, it’s still up in the air, but here goes:

    Gold’s and GDX’s respective yearly cycles may be out of sync. Plain and simple. Correlation between daily gold and GDX has recently become strong, whereas correlation on the yearly scale is only moderate. I have posted, several months ago, that the Dec, 2016, low in gold looks like a yearly cycle low, but that of GDX does not.

    Thus, since Dec, 2016, gold appears to be in a yearly cycle rally, and with yearly volatility contracting, it’s on track to peak below 1350 (at least the way it looks right now).

    GDX, on the other hand, looks like it’s still in its yearly cycle decline since the August, 2016, peak. And its yearly volatility is also contracting.

    At intermediate degree, gold appears to be declining, since April (the June peak looks like an “overshoot high” — the opposite of the “undercut low”). Intermediate volatility beginning to expand.

    GDX still looks like it’s in its intermediate rally off the December low — sideways, consolidating rally. Contracting intermediate volatility.

  72. zkotpen

    One last word on some fantasy of a US dollar-gold negative correlation.

    Daily correlation is weak and POSITIVE.

    Yearly correlation is weak and negative.

    Contrast that with correlations between gold and USDJPY:

    Daily correlation is very strong and negative.

    Yearly correlation is moderate and negative.

    Which correlation makes the most sense to use:

    The one in your head, or the one that’s backed by the math… the one in the market?

  73. Steffmeister

    How about the Dollar and the Swissy Zkot!? Nice inverse correlation with Gold.

    We got a flush out in Open Interest but we managed to stay within support.

  74. zkotpen

    Steff,

    Every chart is like a new marriage partner;

    I’m feeling like quite a polygamist nowadays πŸ˜‰

    But I will say why the dollar index and gold just don’t care about each other these days: The DXY is Euro-heavy; it is practically a mirror image of EURUSD. Gold is not. Plain and simple.

    Like many, I consider gold to be a currency and treat it as Forex, not something else. Somebody asked Christian, above, if he looked at $Gold or XAUUSD. Well, I, too, am in the XAUUSD forex pair camp. Gold is currency since 2700 b.c., and that’s my take on it. It’s job is to be timeless and universal, and these days, it’s not doing it’s job: It’s exaggerated. How the heck do I know the value of something bought somewhere in the year 1660, in today’s terms, if the link to 1660 valuation is exaggerated? I can’t, and the market is keenly aware of this.

    This year, the US dollar, the global reserve currency, is down. The context: Multiyear sideways consolidation across the main currency spectrum. So you’ve got the European currencies pulling to one side, and the Yen “gets together with” (is suddenly correlated with) gold. Nice little triangulation. The raw materials currencies (aussie, kiwi, and loonie) are also going their own little way, based on “this or that” going on “here or there”.

    In that type of scenario, with the Yen trying to be weakest among the bunch partying with gold needing to be the weakest, and raw materials erratic, that leaves the 3 major European currencies. Swissy will be the helmsman — that’s their raison d’Γͺtre, their William Tell Overture. It’s always gonna be a toss-up between the Euro (fka Deutsch Mark) and the Pound. And with the UK embroiled in populist self-sabotage, well, Euro is king.

    The real question becomes, therefore: …. well???

      1. mustang sally

        Good zPen:

        I have to say I disagree, but first a comment on your charting. Humans are hard wired for safety, and organization, harmony as you call it, The majority of chart speak people buy a book or learn from others, The great Eienstien said we can;t solve a problem thinking the same way the that we created it. 99,5% of people who try to chart are conditioned to connect the points that create a line, the amazement of the chart is there an infinite number of lines cteating these wonderful patterns.
        Like magic the real lines are hidden to 99.5% of the people , they are lateral thinkers and will never succeed. Charting is an art, if you are a logical person, you will never succeed.

        Finally, if the stars line up usd with be your obby again.

        MS

  75. Steffmeister

    I do not want a major TURN to occur right now, The full moon has run it’s course about now I hope, I want to see a double bottom here, will we see 1205 again? I have no power about things just mentioned so let the market decide.

    The analysis I am working with has been in place for many months. The stuff about to happen on Saturday (not a trading day) so lets say Friday and or Monday/Tuesday is a break, no more sideways, no more down if that was the case before the inflection. These kind of things is very precise, months ahead you can forecast a turn within a couple of days. I must quote Charles Nenner here, “As an individual we have free will, but as a collective we operate in a predictable pattern”.

    I am not that good at conventional analysis using indicators, moving average, sentiment and COT. Esoteric trendlines, multi-year/months ones and open interest ratings, short term EW I do like and abstract thinking of course.

    So yeah, there you have it, if a breakdown next week I am in big trouble … I am little bit too transparent for my own good πŸ˜›

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold is not going to $500. It’s putting in a bottom and is in a basing pattern right now.

      Just a little common sense (which almost no one seems to have these days) should tell you that after a decade of global QE there are going to be consequences. We are going to have rolling currency crisis. We’ve had one in the yen and the euro. I suspect it’s the dollars turn again over the next several years.

      This is going to cause massive inflation. It’s already starting in the stock market. Eventually it will spread to the commodity markets and gold as well. No matter how much they try to control the futures market.

      1. mustang sally

        Hey Gary; We have certainly drawn the lines in the sand for each other, the classic gun battle.
        You on one side and me on the other.

        Ready to fire

        Mustang Sally

  76. bluelagoon

    The big moves so far this summer for short term traders IMHO have been in oil and natural gas.

    Alex – I hope you got out of shorting NG with a profit before the upturn. We’ve seen quite a bounce up in NG the past few days and it sure looks like it’s going to rally for a while. What are your latest predictions and targets for NG and oil?

  77. zkotpen

    Mustang Sally,

    You have to disagree? Please! Not the most mathematical or scientific or artistic argument.

    But disagree all you like. Just, don’t disagree.. present YOUR OWN viewpoint, REGARDLESS OF MINE!!!

    If it is valid, both of us will see: The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

    That is why I LOATHE debate: You attack the other person’s viewpoint (and you haven’t even done that). Just present the different viewpoints, and allow the differences to resolve themselves. There’s a huge bias introduced when one is on the offensive and defensive. Just present one’s own viewpoint, as I already have, and interact with others with other viewpoints and allow for a more accurate viewpoint to emerge on its own, without this or that champion.

    As for the other stuff about logick brain, you have no idea whom you’re interacting with — but the person you describe is nowhere near me. You are describing the clever left-brainer — the one who is always trying to pick my brain for free… or as the song says:

    “I don’t want the world
    I just want your half.”

    That’s the left brain dogmatist, trying to bully their way in to what they don’t have.

    Except, you don’t get there by bullying. You get there by letting go of dogma. And logick.

    As for the chart work, it is revolutionary. Method is scientific. Step 2 of scientific method is to form an hypothesis. And I can assure you that “form an hypothesis” is not synonymous with “masturbate your mind”. Hypothesis comes from the same place as artistic creation.

    Before I posted that, I looked for a long time at my musically inspired charts. I’ve pulled two principles from that gorgeous universe into the charts… the music of mathematics…

    Quack quack doctor sally!

    1. Gary Post author

      Why don’t you just join the challenge and let’s see if your math skills really make any money.

      The quants at LTCM almost brought down the global financial system…..

    2. mustang sally

      Zpen>

      You are correct I have no idea who am talking to, and neither do you. Our lines are in the sand and you are right it is not debatable, we each have our theories and will stick to them. So for us to have a debate is a non go.

      So I will be polite and will not respond to your post, and you shall do the same.

      Get in the online bingo and lets let the numbers talk, because the is all that matters

      Mustang Sally out

  78. mustang sally

    Hey Gary; We have certainly drawn the lines in the sand for each other, the classic gun battle.
    You on one side and me on the other.

    Ready to fire

    Mustang Sally

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