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I keep telling subscribers to focus most, if not all their capital in the stock portfolio trades. We have protection in that market. It’s about as close to free money as you will ever get in this business.
Amazingly of all the traders playing the challenge only one took a trade in the stock market (TQQQ).
Great advice. I prefer soxl powered by nvda.
100 week SMA moving up — of course — that is “the driver”of the MULTIYEAR cycle… the one that’s rallying!
Problem is, the 100 month SMA hasn’t even turned down… at least not yet. That’s why the rally is so tepid.
Multiyear rally within a bear market one degree higher.
You have to disagree? Please! Not the most mathematical or scientific or artistic argument.
But disagree all you like. Just, don’t disagree.. present YOUR OWN viewpoint, REGARDLESS OF MINE!!!
If it is valid, both of us will see: The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
That is why I LOATHE debate: You attack the other person’s viewpoint (and you haven’t even done that). Just present the different viewpoints, and allow the differences to resolve themselves. There’s a huge bias introduced when one is on the offensive and defensive. Just present one’s own viewpoint, as I already have, and interact with others with other viewpoints and allow for a more accurate viewpoint to emerge on its own, without this or that champion.
As for the other stuff about logick brain, you have no idea whom you’re interacting with — but the person you describe is nowhere near me. You are describing the clever left-brainer — the one who is always trying to pick my brain for free… or as the song says:
“I don’t want the world
I just want your half.”
That’s the left brain dogmatist, trying to bully their way in to what they don’t have.
Except, you don’t get there by bullying. You get there by letting go of dogma. And logick.
As for the chart work, it is revolutionary. Method is scientific. Step 2 of scientific method is to form an hypothesis. And I can assure you that “form an hypothesis” is not synonymous with “masturbate your mind”. Hypothesis comes from the same place as artistic creation.
Before I posted that, I looked for a long time at my musically inspired charts. I’ve pulled two principles from that gorgeous universe into the charts… the music of mathematics…
Quack quack doctor sally!
try to preach at church
@zkotpen. It was not enough to post this rant on the last blog entry, now you had to post again? You love hearing yourself talk.
Lol! Don’t get him started. His scientific brain could short circuit 🙂
NUGT delivering breakfast and lunch this morning 🙂 And Gold breaking out of the flag — let’s see if it holds.
A convincing break above 1227.5 would be splendid
Longer term charts are looking like gold is bouncing back up perhaps to 1230-12500’s and then we will be in for more downside momentum to that lower part of the triangle which may be in the 1270’s by that time.
1230-1250’s (sorry typo)
lol – what a morning – another typo – 1170’s lower part of the triangle.
By longer term charts you mean the chart I posted yesterday?
I didn’t see your chart Christian as I don’t have time to read all posts but looking at it now – yes – we are thinking along the same lines. I was looking at 4day and higher charts.
Of course.. I was mostly being cheeky. A bounce seems likely although we could see quite a bit of volatility today.
PPT? Not so sure. It is the numero uno semi sector powered by highly innovative companies like nvda, amat, avgo, asml, lrcx, etc. Look at nvda and soxl step into earnings season! Semis likely to pull nas up despite the misgivings of cycle folks and technical folks worrying about macd neg. divergences.
Don’t you have “page down” on your computer?
Just add me to your page down list.
And kindly do not address me again — or do, if you feel you must.
“Lol! Don’t get him started. His scientific brain could short circuit”
Funny you should mention that — just 24 hours ago, while monitoring Reuters Markets, there was a link to the 4-7-8 technique for achieving instant, profound sleep — struck me as a great technique for dealing with brain short circuit. I will remember it forever!
Excellent — now post a trade and let’s see what that scientific Maserati of a brain of yours can do in real time. Either that or you should write a book because you are wasting your time on here my good friend 🙂
Gary’s analysis of the the stock market is becoming redundant. Stocks are a ‘buy & hold’ and have been for several years now — thank you PPT and QE and useless Politicians.
If you happen to have a bit of dry powder then go ahead and buy the dip.. other than that, sit back and enjoy. There are other dragons to slay 🙂
All people with new ways of looking at things have been mocked and ridiculed — or worse. Status quo thinkers just do that: They show contempt and incredulity for new thinking. The incredulity is to be expected, and not such a big deal. But is there really a need for the contempt? It is quite destructive, and does nobody any good. There are some people who have expressed interest in my thoughts on markets.
Seems like this morning, as is often the case with people who think differently from the status quo, we are embroiled in some social discussion that has nothing to do with the task at hand. The Trial has absolutely nothing to do with Socrates’s ideas, for example. But he got drawn into it as a social thing… and 2500 years later, we all reap the benefits of it. I am the only person I know who actually feels gratitude for that one act in history. I feel it every day — I am a beneficiary of it, as are you and everybody else with the luxury of posting on this blog. Being one who thinks differently from the status quo, I simply don’t take that, or anything else, for granted, whereas the champion of the status quo, well…
Just so we’re clear.. I’m not ‘mocking’ you in the least but I do think you’re wasting your time on here. And I’m still waiting for that ‘real time’ trade using your correlations Z 🙂 Let’s have it.
“Our lines are in the sand and you are right it is not debatable, we each have our theories and will stick to them. So for us to have a debate is a non go.
So I will be polite and will not respond to your post, and you shall do the same.”
No line in the sand, and no issue is ever worth debating. Others love to joust, not I. I took a stab at answering Steffmeister’s question. I offered my answer. Don’t attack mine (which you didn’t even do, rather you just burst out in opposition).
If you don’t agree, why not just answer the question yourself? If your answer has merit, I’m probably smart enough to recognize that. If so, I will likely modify & improve my own thoughts as a result.
As for polite and not react (respond is positive, and react is negative — just ask your doctor), you’re not being polite, you’re being tactical. And sure, you’re a better social tactician than I — I don’t doubt that for a second.
Blah, blah blah, good grief, Zkotpen, give us a break with the endless scatter brained chatter.
Did I not tell you I am not interested in your rhetoric, yes you have big words and fluff your feathers , it may bogle a few but where is your substance, get in the contest , if you whoop my ass then I would switch to your system but right now that has yet to be determined.
It is clear that I wasted too much time posting my thoughts on markets last night!
1000 shares TQQQ at 102.99
Orders in for some SOXL
Watching AAOI for possible entry
SOXL’s 50 day average volume is 518,700 and this morning has already traded 464,000
Raised limit order for SOXL to 93.49
Sold most of my USLV;
07/07/2017 Bought 3k shares at 9.44
07/11/2017 Sold 1k shares at 10.10
07/12/2017 Sold 1.5 shares at 10.31
Holding 500 shares.
Sorry the trade above was for the contest trade. I had SLV and GLD calls in own portfolio that I sold at open this morning.
Nice work Nada. Seems like you’ve also figured out a way to play options while most people find it’s a money taker vs maker. If you’re inclined – pls. let us in on any tips you may have. Thanks.
Gary if the stock market is now able to go up then this should put pressure on gol now
Not necessarily. If gold has completed a DCL then it should rally at least far enough to break the cycle down trend line.
It is best to focus for now on leading groups: aapl group(proxy tqqq), semi group(proxy soxl), bio (poxy labu). Oils and pms down the road.
Does anyone know what caused the oil price to come down so dramatically after a supposed “positive” oil report? Honestly, the charts looked like UWT/GUSH had to come down – hitting key resistance and MA’s not lined up but wow, the price action went against the news.
I personally think DWT still has a date with at least the $low $30’s.
Thanks for sharing Bluebell.
Price just got ahead of itself coming out of a deep low and so today’s inventory report is an excuse to take profits. Now she consolidates before next move higher?
Rapunsel – if UWT can close above $13.25 which is the monthly pivot point, then I’d have a lot more confidence that it will go higher to perhaps the $15’s. It’s always tough to go long on oil for very long in a seasonally weak oil month like July.
Christian, do you still keep that “core” DUST position, or did you sold and planning to buy back before gold ICL?
I got out on the rebound yesterday around 34 and bought NUGT for the ride up — I clued in when GDX delivered a double bottom and a breakout.
Key to options is to buy yourself time and be confident in your TA on a short term basis. My last trade in GLD calls were less time than I usually like to buy myself, but this was only a quick bounce play. I am not sure if this is going to be a LT cycle or we had our ICL, so with that unknown the intention was to take money off table quickly if opportunity presented itself. I am alway early it seems, but I go in small and then average down at key levels while I build my position. Below is an example of a trade;
I started positions with GLD 116 calls August 18 expiration on 07/05.
Filled Buy to Open 3 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.85 — — 09:48:43 07/05/17
Filled Buy to Open 3 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.59 — — 09:30:56 07/07/1
Filled Buy to Open 3 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.54 — — 09:43:10 07/07/17
Filled Buy to Open 1 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.50 — — 10:10:48 07/07/17
Filled Buy to Open 2 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.45 — — 10:17:09 07/07/17
Filled Buy to Open 2 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.35 — — 11:02:20 07/07/17
Filled Buy to Open 2 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.31 — — 09:32:59 07/10/17
Filled Buy to Open 2 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.26 — — 09:40:19 07/10/17
Filled Buy to Open 2 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.29 — — 09:46:18 07/11/17
Filled Buy to Open 5 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.23 — — 10:20:36 07/11/17
So in this example, I had 25 contracts that I bought at 3,591 or avg price of 1.43. I sold 1 contract yesterday (was trying to sell 5 contracts at close, but only 1 got filled) and then sold at open into the rally for a profit of $765.00 minus my contract fees of about 13 dollars.
Filled Sell to Close 1 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.56 — — 15:29:08 07/11/17
Filled Sell to Close 24 GLD AUG 18 2017 116.0 Call Limit 1.75 — — 09:30:29 07/12/17
I also had positions in GLD Sept 15th calls, AG Jan calls and SLV Jan calls that I sold into the rally from the 5th. I had around 10k in options, so I was happy to lighten my load. Options are certainly not the be–all and end–all to trading, but its all I trade and what has kept my portfolio green. The #1 rule is to take profit when it presents itself.
Nada – thanks for sharing tips on options – VERY HELPFUL. I appreciate the time you took to provide a detailed breakdown – it certainly helps in understanding. I find I have good calls but don’t always “buy in” on all of them. Options may be a way for me to get in on the action without committing a lot of capital. Something to consider as part of my trading strategy. Thanks again.
As indicated yesterday, I see good probability that GDXJ backtests at about same time as next gap fill.. day or 2. If gold breaks 1229ish then high probability off to the races with GDXJ following. But I’m betting gold fails at 1229 and resumes decent with a big decision at about 1197. Currently in JNUG for the bounce and will reevaluate soon.
Z- correlations are important. But I asked you before does it matter? I think of course but for multiple reasons. Divergence namely. BUT eyeballing is ok. Leading indicators and trends. Machines can do math better than us but they don’t have the creative side.
Is this a rhetorical question?
I already answered it in my post — yours to use, or ignore, as you see fit.
Good luck eyeballing the correlations.
Feel free to let me know how it goes, or not, as you prefer.
So far so good. I use both eye balling and the actual correlation. Interesting method that I learned from someone else is to look at divergence by graphing Gold divided by USDJPY. I’m also not trying to question your methods as you do what works for you. Just discussing as it helps me learn.
Gary, the 8yr cycle had to be put in on Dec. 2016. Looking at the last five 8yr cycles they have never come close to retesting the low after over a half year has passed. Why are you playing games at these levels? Like you want to tell people on this blog all the time……..you have to have an investment time horizon longer than the life of a fruit fly.
The 8 YCL couldn’t occur in 2016 because that low occurred above the 2015 low.
This is what EW traders do. They squint until they see what they want to see. Some cycles analysts do the same thing. If the expect turn doesn’t come when they want it to they just squint a little harder and find a “stealth cycle low”.
There is no such thing as a stealth cycle low. The cycle is just stretching past the normal timing band.
Thanks Gary for the post. i’m just looking at the dollar and the daily cycles and at one point i thought they were getting very long indeed; but after making more lower lows i have them now at making shorter short cycles instead. If the bottom was at 30th June , this would make the next cycle very long indeed to balance out the shorter ones. This would also tie in with breaking the yearly cycle. On a more obscure note, boy some people to blab on and on in this thread (not naming anyone). cheers Mrtommifunn
Cycles have become almost useless in the currency markets now. The currency wars have warped them to the point they almost don’t exist anymore.
This is why I would never trade currencies.
July 7, 2017 at 2:50 pm
Sure. very possible. But if this turns out to be a Cycle low, we will know in a week or two whether it’ s right or left. So this gives good parameters for starting a position…not all in, and see how cycle plays out. if cycle fails you get out break even or small loss on small position, knowing can take bigger position at next low or its right translated and you have skin in the game and can build a good trading position for the IC. That is my thinking anyway. the market will let us know one way or another.”
That was my thinking on Friday. i executed as such on Monday. Gary was skeptical in his response. noticed that he has changed his mind. It was a low risk opportunity, in my opinion, at the time i wrote the above. At worst, if this cycle becomes left translated, i will get stopped out with a small profit. Don’t forget to put your stops in Gary.
Christian, do you plan to re-enter DUST?
I would like to yes…
I want to be the broker for the challenge. I’d be getting rich. 🙂
I’ve never seen so much overtrading.
After today I won’t accept anymore in and out trades in one day unless your stop is hit.
One of the rules was no day trading, but so far that is exactly what most of you are doing.
I’m wondering if we didn’t just get a breakaway gap on the markets into the next phase of the bubble.
Gary Re gold are you that if gold doesn’t break the down trend lne and continues down to a lower low say 1295 and then moves up to break the d trend line this would be the dcl with another dcl and the icl to come?
If gold doesn’t break the trend line then we don’t have the DCL yet.
Gary – u have the patience of a statue, if it was me, the first daytrade and yeeerr out 🙂
Gary, you lost me! The year 2001 was excepted in most circles as a 8yr cycle low and it had a higher high than the 1999 low. By your standards are you saying that you recognize the 1999 low as the 8yr cycle low?
The lower low occurred in 1999. That would have to be the 8 YCL.
correction / I meant to say that 2001 had a higher low than 1999.
ERX — Testing channel trendline yet again.
Glad to see your trade, as I know price/action and volume are weighted in your analysis. Care to provide an overview on your thought process on entry this morning with the gap up? GL.
The Nasdaq is trying to breakout of its bull market channel. Once it does then the next phase of the bubble will begin. The nutty phase where we should get 100% or better gains in a year or less.
The deflationists are clearly in denial.
Even the so-called bubble phase will be punctuated by some swoons. Price never goes straight up or straight down.
breakaway gap on soxl.
Been waiting on a pullback of some sort all day and it just will not ease. Am trying to buy RACE again – bought it back in April and sold June 9th.
The last three days in TQQQ have been up days with volume coming in pretty good. Yesterday’s volume was 4.5 mm and the average is 3.9 mm so when it gapped up this morning above resistance and volume was running heavy I figured that was the green light. It also went thru the middle Bollinger Band which would have been a good place to enter but since it gapped thru that area that was not a possibility.
The MACD is also giving a buy signal today.
One of the characteristics of bull markets or markets in an uptrend is weakness in the morning but strong closes and/or strong openings with an even stronger close. As we enter the final two hours of trading I am seeing prices inch up and volume pick up.
upside macd cross over for soxl.
Sold my 500 ERX at 24.75 for a modest profit. Crude oil is looking weak and the oil stocks are not partying like the rest of the market.
Still hanging on to GDX.
Still holding my USLV. Sold JNUG and NUGT this AM on the big bounce. Metals are sitting still too long. Consolidation for the big jump up or the next crash down?
Also, still in UWT but today was a rough ride. Gave back a MINT off the morning highs and then way down low at the close. Over $1 swing today. That is tough to watch and still hold. Big picture though.
Picked up some UGAZ also in the 12.85 range. I think we have one more good POP in natty before it probably rolls over again.
@dboz Sold the remaining 500 shares of USLV for the contest this morning. I went into a small GLD 116 put position when xauusd tagged 10ema via options that expire Sept 15th. I am with you, I am unsure if this moves to the upside or moves lower.
We probably both should be sitting on the sidelines as I think the meat of the move has occurred. However, I guess we are sharks and enjoy the leftover skin 😛 Speaking of natty, I am in UNG 8C for Oct that I bought as a lotto play. I only spent 80 dollars on them and they are worth about 130 at the moment. I hope we get that last pop as I would like to close – natty is a widow maker.
Hello Gary, This clearly wasn’t the day to switch from TQQQ to JNUG. Just noticed the new chart and comment.
Was today a breakout out day day for the SM as some are suggesting? I wouldn’t be so sure. The S&P did not make a run for a new high near the close which I would have expected if it were starting a new leg up.
The value line arithmetic index (VALUA) is one I watch as it is not influenced by the weighting of a few big stocks. It came within O.0125 % of it’s all time high set on July 3 and then backed down during the last three hours of trading.
Tomorrow should be very interesting.
Fed has created the greatest moral hazard in the history of the world with the US stock market. Why would US stocks ever go down if inventors know the Fed has their back? If stocks drop 20%, the Fed will start easing again. Where is the risk??? Where’s the risk in owning Goldman Sachs??? There is absolutely none. The only risk is the USD will some day break, but with the BOJ bending over for the Fed, the US dollar is wherever the Fed wants it to be. Commodities are at 50 year lows in absolute terms!!! Relative to the stock market,they are at all time lows. Conversely, you have absolutely killed it in real terms (i.e., purchasing power) if you have been long US stock for the last 10 years. Commodities are at 50 year lows despite the Fed tacking on 3+ trillion in a few years to their balance sheet! The Fed has schooled every one and executed a masterclass. They are in total control now and there is no way credit ever stops flowing.
Companies like AMZN and GOOG will end up absolutely crushing everything in their path. Only the largest companies have access to low interest rates with which they can buy back shares and acquire other companies. The rich companies get richer, while start ups and small companies have monumental and ever increasing obstacles to overcome to survive. I call it the new fascist business model, since government does nothing but enable this unlevel playing field.
“Investors” not “inventors.” probably loads of other typos.
Nasty reversal candles in the miners today. A plunge is in the cards.
Folks I gotta say.. it is a Hell of a lot nicer on here without all the parasites, trolls, gnomes — you name it.
It won’t last of course because somehow they always find their way back but in the meantime, thank you for keeping it mostly civil 🙂
Did you close out your ERX?
Of course! I was looking for you on the day HomerJ but coincidently you were nowhere to be found, Lol!
There’s always a bounce of some sort. You just have to time it right to minimize the damage but more importantly you have to understand what you’re trading. In my case, I broke even and had I stuck around woulda made some lunch money on top of that.
Good for you then, there’s too many posts to wade through here, missed your reply last time.
this things pushing me shut down the computer and go gardening, … , all this trading’s are going to be great waste of time when one morning you try to log in to the broker but have a message “the page is not available” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mPXl2ZIWt_c
Thanks for the link Victor.
“Did I not tell you I am not interested in your rhetoric…”
Please do not misrepresent yourself (which is a polite, fluffy feathers way of putting it) yet again.
Your original statement that brought on all of this discussion was when you blasted my 2017 outlook on the currencies as wrong and offered no alternative. Nothing to do with trading, an area where I’m still a beginner — perhaps advanced beginner by now.
So if my 2017 outlook was wrong, kindly tell us what’s going on with the currencies this year, 1st half and 2nd half, from your point of view.
No rhetoric was used in my post that you attacked.
I put a ton of work in to my currency outlook, and I hesitated to share it with this forum. Indeed, I am only glad I didn’t share more! — as in, the answer to the question I left at the end. As Christian hints, that would have been a waste of time — all cost and no benefit to me.
The only reason I didn’t add you to my “Page Down” group was because you’ve posted some interesting trades. Maybe you’re a trader I can learn from, maybe not.
Zkotpen: I am not familiar with how to add someone to a “page down” group. Is that unique to a certain browser? Please explain.
I’m still a beginner or advanced beginner at trading. But determined to ramp up in that area. I have the forecasting skills to back me — good traders can make money on coin flips. I believe my market analysis is better than that — just need to bring my trading skills up to standard.
In that regard, I’ve learned from Goild, Christian, Nada, Gary, and Ped.
Finally entered my first Forex trade — ever: Sell EURJPY at 129.333, based on what I wrote yesterday.
Had to call my broker to ask them what I will need to do to exit the trade. They were super helpful (forex.com).!
Made beginner mistakes, notably, entered the trade too early (or too late, based on what I wrote yesterday — should have entered it then). But I understand what I did wrong and know exactly how to correct it in the future.
I do believe the DCH for EURJPY is in, and as stated weeks ago, even a counter trend daily cycle move should produce a couple of high probability swing trades. Once EURJPY breaks support at its 10 day SMA, it should go for the 20 day SMA, at which time I will re-evaluate.
Eyeball or hunch first, but then backed up by the math — obligatorily.
There is no “works for you” or “works for me” — that’s called subjectivity.
Every single bit of “for you” and “for me” must be compensated for.
Where does that compensation hit?
Maybe “for you”, risk:reward is a constant, in which case:
Full speed ahead with “what works for you”!
Raising stops in common stock. How long will the rally continue? Dow 30k ?
I watch NIKKEI for clues, that is the first indices to lose steam imo.
Gold&Silver I am waiting for an inflection point on Monday, a breakup or a breakdown?
Forex-Currencies: I am watching $/Swissy a big break coming in 2018. The dollar is stuck in a trading range 93-103, it looks like it’s heading down to 93 before a turn. I am expecting slow sideways moves until the big event in 2018.
Is it possible for common stocks and miners to rally together for the rest of the year?
Oups, not my largest holding but … Tx Bob Moriarty 🙂
Good Morning Cowboys/giris
Zpen has asked me to comment on currencies going forward. Zpen I use a system which visualize .\identifies markers on a chart, I use these to determine verify direction, If you go back I have posted several markers which indicate to me where we are going, If my markers are fulfilled you will probably see the swiss currency around 85 in a short period of time.