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Bubble won’t burts untill we have negative interest rates on deposits. This is when people will rush into stocks.
Good afternoon Gary,
I said a few words for you in church today, because if oil can’t get above 48.47 and stay above you are going to be cussing about deflation, and you will a up lifting ride ride down the slippery slope of deflation. If it gets above I am with you. in the ride to higher grounds,
Peace
Mustang Sally feeling good today
Oh I forgot Gary, have you ever thought about dow back to 1000, that is a retrace of the the funny money era, if you look at long term chart back to 1929 is not out of the question, if fact the symetry is quiet the picture. that would be the devil talking.
MS
Gary , just to make sure we are on the same def, deflation is when assets decline because of the said currency rises,
MS
Gary, I am loosing my marbles today, I forgot to tell you the marker for wtic, it is 40.21, if it heads below and stays below you are going to be singing gospel music and praying every Sunday.
Batter up
Mustang Sally
Batter Down Sally you just struck out head to the dugout
Question: Who thinks tesla is a good short, as of tomorrow I am going to bet a little ranch money if she goes below by marker of 252 I am going to lay some lumber on it, this darling is going to hurt. Thinking there is alot of funny money in this one to evaporate.
Tesla a modern day bre-x
Smokin Sally
https://youtu.be/ie0XiOzs5Qc
Tucker would have more to say.
I would wait to see if it can rally back above the 50 day and that would be a better place to short.
Hey Blue: Just my starter, and yes if it went up, good place to add more, I like to wait for marker to get hit which is at 250 I will put alot on, similiar to my entry on dusty,
MS
The 10 day moving average has been resistance the last few days.
With governments increasingly investing in the markets the bubble could be superfluous or at least of a different character?
Some more food for thought, tesla is loosing subsidies , oil is going to tank (sorry gary) when oil is around 5,00 who is gonna want a pussy electric car, bring on the muscles cars that’s what Ameerica needs.
Burnin Rubber
Mustang Sally
and by the way I love the 1969 Mustang Shelby gt coupe
Gary, listening your podcasts lately, I have noticed you are becoming very sure “very cocky” of what you are saying.
Now to balance out your sureness and serve your readers better, I will say something why you could be a way behind the curve. Another words, the parabolic bubble phase already has happened and now you are seeing the tail end of it.
I have two points to support why you may not correct.
One, the deflation is not myth. It is just that “Current deflation is Masked.” You got that “Masked.”
Masked by incessant money printing. That is the whole game of “Neo-Ponzi” (c) scheme. This scheme is only successful with competitive money debasements by all central banks, and they have been very successful so far. With all that effort, what we got last CPI report, was it 1.6% or 1.7%?
That’s a huge deflationary, Think about it for a long time.
Two, the current economy is not market economy. Current economy is managed “manipulated” economy.
You should not mix with market economy data with current economic data.
Anytime there is a parabolic bubble phase of stock market, industrial commodity reaches the bubble phase first. We had none of that. When was last copper price peaked. It was so long ago I can’t even remember. Why is there so much time lack? It’s because current stock markets is managed by central banks injecting a lot of money rotated among different central banks. And all that money went into stock-buybacks and housing markets. Now, FED initiated “taking away a punch bowl.” It appears that ECB is following suit and others like Canada and few others following the suit. This not the environments where you will see final phase of parabolic stock price rise. Stock markets anticipates Central Banks.
Then again, I may be wrong and you may be very correct. I have been wrong millions time.
But I have felt the way of your sure cockiness stating your position has to be checked for a common good, imo. Good luck.
Sir Ed> We are on the same speak, I have been trying to heed the words of the great Albert E
We cannot solve this problem with the same thinking that created it. This is a paradigm shift and everything that was accepted must be thrown out. Cots, indicators all out the window. I will be a huge shorter when my markers are hit, my gut says Friday was hit and the darlings like tesla will fall as quick as they rise and probably quicker.
MS
FWIW, spot gold closed above the downtrend line on Friday.
Wow! weekly stochastics for ERX pinned down under 20 for 4 months.
In IBD tables this week, energy is at the bottom of the heap (rank 33). pms are just one step above (rank 32).
Buy when out of favor for the long term.
That is the theory behind the Dogs of the Dow strategy.
dboz,
If you have a question, just ask 🙂
And by the way, you never answered my questions on your cross-combos — XAU:XAG, XAUEUR, XAUJPY or whatever.?
Still, I’m always looking for something of an edge, and cross combos might be it. Only, ones that you can take action on. I’m not seeing it with gold. Maybe elsewhere.
What is the question? I never saw it. That said, gold looks good in the EUR, JPY, CHF right now. Not so good in other currencies including the Canadian Dollar. Along with the USD, the other 3 I mentioned are all coming out of oversold stochastics, RSI and have or will have a MACD cross over today. I could see gold make a run into the 1260 range if it can break out from here. I think 1250 is key though. I think we can make a run up for a 2-3 week surge here, then maybe start another roll over into the ICL that Gary is waiting for.
Someone said he bought NUGT so that means Gary thinks this is a DC and not yet to the IC. I may jump on board for a ride but not sure I trust the metals or miners here, especially after the two heavy finger dumps a few weeks ago.
Mustang Sal,
Nothing of interest in what you post. I had thought there might be, but lately, it’s all blather.
Page down!
Kindly page down thru my posts as well.
Best wishes and à Dieu ~ z
à Dieu = goodbye forever, as in, next time we meet will be before God.
RetireYoung,
I am now embarking on the exercise.
I had not done it before for the same reason I had never traded Forex until last week: My edge wasn’t ready. I’ve been “dragging my feet” on the exercise for months; “procrastinating” on Forex for over a year. But actually, I wasn’t dragging or procrastinating. I was developing my edge. And I didn’t want to have negative experience attached to either — you know how difficult it is to undo those negative bonds! Better to just not form them in the first place.
My edge is still not perfect, but I reckon “close enough” means full speed ahead!
I’ll let you know how it goes.
Cheers!
are we now still waiting for (at least) an ICL for gold at say 1180 !?
Blue bell kid, (All opinions are welkome)
Not sure if you got into USLV but I am on side lines with PM now rather waiting to see last drawdown/ICL Gold or first pullback to commit.
Thanks for highlighting volume USLV. I have a question about the controversy of the huge silver dump that previous week that was clear price manipulate that was done in most quite hours of physical volume that does not exist claimed by silver annalist, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSs86ENbMRo
I would find your POV interesting as other see that spike to influence lower price action like Igold https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DfkZ3w6oKRU&t=1s.
So how much of volume sign can we then consider?
So my concern before getting into USVL (or miners)at the point even seeing the volume at this point but considering previous. we have crossed dialy 8 EMA not sure of any fib considering the spike . What is your take? Looking at what pullback there is on 4 hourly and getting in? First wait to make sure gold has done ICL. that silver could folllow through further down. So just a possible bounce for futher bear to ICL that possibly to late and not worth the risk. Yes a million dollar question to possibly just wait it out if we cant count on volume confirmation which seems a good confirmation? YOu buy and just keep cold turkey (if follow gold down) for move up? Just use stop loss on next dip? Hahaha..decisions?
The POV of value of volume as confirmation to proceed with the few points mentioned?
Gold on otherhand show RSI possible just had ICL/DCL considering abounce to a left translated DC into ICL.
GOLD 7 RSI weekly seems good as a ICL to me but on the otherhand with timing and cycle time we must have done ICL 10 July as we can not have a deeper bounce to finish the ICL soon. JPYUSD seems to possibly at resistance and 50 MA to pop for deeper low or just pullback that seems more fitting to pattern for gold to make a quick further drop.
All of the COT report experts are saying things are favorable for a rally in silver sometime in the near future. USLV made a new all time low this past week but then rallied and closed near the highs of the week on the heaviest volume in the history of the ETN. Doesn’t mean it will be off to the races but it is a good sign and I think it warrants a small position. It is sitting right below the 10 day (10.35) so if it can take that out that would be a good place to buy and if it can go thru the middle BB (11.11) that would also be a good place to enter.
Mr. Blue Don’t forget the 200 at 1233, this would be my marker if I was going long gold. but to the shorter this is the place to load.
MS
USLV is up 38 cents in premarket activity
A great morning to all and that includes you zpen
As we now have a rabid calling of gold taking off on the interweb, I thought i would share my markers for the usd, first marker 96.89 second 98.42 ard lastly. My trades if I had more bingo money, 50,/50 at each marker (jsdt),
Cliff scary
Mustang Sally
I really do not understand so much upbeat talk on Energy and so much downbeat on PM !
If I still were part of the contest, I would be 100% invested in USLV, NUGT, ERY and DGAZ – positions built primarily at the beginning of July but also slightly till last Thursday.
In my real trading account I am short Natgas, long Gold and the same oldie short-CAC40 I have for nearly 2 months.
I really, really do not understand!
You can start over as long as you follow the rules as I’ve laid them out.
Price and percentage of portfolio. That’s all I’m going to accept.
Thank you, Gary, but, as I also wrote you in my email on Sunday when I decided to quit, I did not understand why on July 11, upon my email notifying you about the stop on profit on ALL position of DGAZ at 25.00 (the day NG up-thrusted and exhausted due to some heating weather calls) you booked the sell only on the latter DGAZ pyramiding of 800 shares instead of ALL position of 1500 shares.
Furthermore in that particular July 11 email I was also informing you that the only positions left in my account were ERY and USLV, thus corroborating the idea that no DGAZ was left !!!
Yet, you for some reason refused to consider that sell….and later told me I do not have enough equity…while of course I had!
Secondly, you decided to book a buy-stop order of DGAZ subsequently that July 11 day at 24.55 (when I saw NG getting exhausted from retailers following the buying bonanza) while the actual buy order came at 24.40 a bit later in the day and the scale-in to a full position on July 12 at 25.40.
You told me I had no equity because …I had bought at 24.55…the buy-stop that you say you refute to consider.
I recorded everything you sent me. I had trouble deciphering your trades as you repeatedly ignored my requests to include only two pieces of information. Price and percentage.
So if you want to start over and follow the directions exactly you can. Everyone else is following this protocol with no problem and I have been able to keep up with their trades ith no problems.
anyway, Gary, it does not matter.
I cannot trade w/o stops of any sort, be they stop-loss, sell-stop or buy-stop –> they are part of me as a trader.
It is your contest, your rules, it is ok w/ me. it’s just that the rules exclude me as a trader by not allowing stops and that’s not your fault or mine, it is just incompatibility 🙂
Nonsense. When your stop is hit then you email me your exit.
The same as everyone else in the contest.
Gary, that is valid for someone w/ his eyes on the screen through all trading hours – not my case.
I can get a stop (either out of or in a trade) and see it 3 minutes or 3 hours later while you will say that the time stamp of the email is too late and the price is totally different.
Thus, your contest rules do not work for all trading styles and there is no fault in that. It is just that I do not fit in it.
I bet all the longs on gold are getting frothy as gold just jumped over the 200, don;t get to excited Mr Markets loves to get you giddy. Look at our class clown Clive Maud.
MS
My thoughts on gold. It has completed a daily cycle low. It should still have a deeper intermediate cycle low ahead of it, but…
Central bank intervention has more or less broken the normal cycle rhythm in the stock market. Stocks are prevented from corrections gaining too much momentum and any correction is aborted ahead of a political event or Fed meeting.
The same appears to be happening in the currency markets.
So if the dollar is prevented from completing a normal bounce out of an intermediate cycle low (and the cycle is already so abnormally long that there is clearly intervention going on) and just keeps falling and falling never being allowed to produce an intermediate degree bounce then gold has probably bottomed and the next stage of the bull market is getting under way.
Like i said in the video deflation is a myth and ultimately gold will also produce a bubble, although I think stocks will be first.
We are on the verge of a massive inflation event over the next 2-3 years. Just a little common sense should tell people that the printing of trillions of currency units globally is eventually going to cause a huge mess.
Very bold statement said with conviction, time will tell and the proof will be in the contest, no huff and puffen needed there, just a good old gunfight.
Mustang Sally
Rockin in the home
Alex – I posted this last week. It seems we are thinking differently on oil and NG but the same on gold. I’d be interested in hearing why you are still bearish on oil and NG. Perhaps our differences are just due to time horizon.
bluelagoon
July 14, 2017 at 12:31 pm
Anyone care to chime in on the daily trend? My thoughts are:
Oil – going up – new DCL and perhaps even ICL – potential small pullback next week
Gold – going up – potentially new DCL – will see if it breaks the upper trendline early next week
Natural Gas – going up – perhaps we’re at a half cycle low of a new DCL
Hello, hello, Blue!
My views on Energy are absolutely unchanged for several months – arguments have then been expressed.
I’ve said I have been looking for YCL in Energy complex in early August (or late July the latest), there are my expectations still since the fundamental and technical outlooks are unchanged.
…late July the soonest 😛
Gold & GDX getting halted at their respected 20 day SMAs as expected. Very near an Intraday cycle top, which will move into an Intraday low — “bear trap” — before resuming the Daily cycle rally.
The Intraday peak won’t be too far above the 20 day SMA.
The Intraday bear trap will not get too much out of line.
No big, sustained move coming any time soon, until the Intermediate decline resumes. The current daily cycle rally is a bull trap.
Just to be clear on 2 traps:
INTRADAY BEAR trap — pullback to begin very soon.
DAILY cycle BULL trap — in progress.
Zpen. Very interesting that you posts the same as I which you call trash, you have shown your stripes.
and no I will not ignore , I will read your post and reply as many times as I want,
Are you in the online bingo game Zpen?
Riden the dusty
MS
Zkot how much longer till the daily cycle tops and when can we get the Icl? Gary is not making sense anymore. He is saying now that the us dollar could just keep going straight down without any bounce.
Bluelagoon, as to gold [and silver and miners] things are on high probability of growth owing to many reasons out of which the top ones are:
– GDX has shown constant SOS but has managed to rally despite them – a powerful bullish argument (just as in the summer of 2015 SPX was slipping despite strong BOWs!)
– JPY is in ultra-bullish stance, so that USDJPY has to see new lows in this YC decline;
– treasuries have completed their ICL and LEAD defensive assets in bottoming;
– consumer discretionary stocks (XLP) has just put its ICL too –> up to go in a new, fresh IC.
Thus….this is why I am so confident in PM 🙂 plenty of reasons and I have more.
as a matter of fact I am long gold at 1214.7 since July 11 when USDJPY reverted from 114.6 to the lowest of the day at 114.02.
Incidentally, gold immediately charted a daily swing low afterwards, thus underscoring my confidence I was on the right track, on a high-probability long-gold trade (I also wrote Gary about re-entering a pilot in NUGT at 28.00 at that time).
Thanks for sharing your perspective Alex – appreciated as always. Are you thinking this is a just a DCL in gold or an ICL?
Reviewing natural gas – seems to me it has more upside at least this week. I will see if UNG gets past the 50MA if not, I will be shorting it around there.
For oil – I’m watching UWT – expecting it to hit the 50DMA likely by the oil report and then correcting down after that.
Blue, personally I think gold has put its ICL (just as treasuries, JPYUSD and XLP).
On the other hand, I am cautious as always, this is a probabilities’ game, and I have my stop placed into profit.
If I still were in the contest, today I would have already placed my stops for USLV and NUGT in profit too.
UNG is bullshxt. Like USO it traces the outright futures contract and therefore it depreciates too much in time and is irrelevant for any review.
Unfortunately I don’t have the ability to analyze NG futures on my system so UNG is my best proxy but understood.
Scuse me Gary, i’ve listened you for the last 3 months say that gold will go 100% to test the low base of the triangle, price trgt. beetwin 1160/1180…. Now you open the door to other scenario…. maybe the low is already in…. 😮 😮
The same will happen with your vision of the bubble in stocks…??? I mean, also there you are 100% sure will happen….
I was thinking to subscribe to your service, not so sure now….
Doesn’t want to be a polemic with you, not at all; only have a credible explanation. Thanks.
Felix.
Read this again.
“It should still have a deeper intermediate cycle low ahead of it, but…
Central bank intervention has more or less broken the normal cycle rhythm in the stock market. Stocks are prevented from corrections gaining too much momentum and any correction is aborted ahead of a political event or Fed meeting.
The same appears to be happening in the currency markets.
So if the dollar is prevented from completing a normal bounce out of an intermediate cycle low (and the cycle is already so abnormally long that there is clearly intervention going on) and just keeps falling and falling never being allowed to produce an intermediate degree bounce then gold has probably bottomed and the next stage of the bull market is getting under way.”
I’m telling you that if the Fed prevents the dollar from having a normal bounce out of an ICL then we may not get a full test of the lower trend line like we should. I don’t know how to predict government intervention. It’s certainly not baked into any charts or any kind of conventional analysis.
But in our modern managed markets it is certainly a factor that one has to try to account for. Maybe the largest factor. That’s why I think it’s ridiculous to expect fractals, EW, or even cycles and sentiment to guide one flawlessly through the markets. Everything can turn on a dime when an intervention occurs.
The best we can do is try to recognize it when it happens and adjust accordingly.
Gary. I don’t think it the Us that wants the USd down, it is all the countries that owe money in American dollars, remember when the swiss depegged, look what happened to all those people wh had a mortga denominated in swiss, Now multiply that effect by a trillion when they can’t keep the usd down, Can you say holy shit batman.
MX
Morning Mustang Sally! Yes we can see that the subs have caught gold bug fever once again. I will continue to add to my shorts in GLD and GDX puts on key levels. I am not sure how long this cycle will last, but sentiment swings quickly. I hope you opened the TSLA short;
“Tesla Slides: Autopilot Blamed After Tesla Car “Accelerates”, Rolls Over Into Minnesota Marsh “
Yes my only friend on the board, Tesla is going down big time, maybe to 0, so my investments would be Tesla and jdst. and that;s it . I good trader needs only to focus on 2 stocks and be there at the right time, This period coming upon us will make some people very weathy behind your wildest dreams and many poor beyond their wildest dreams. Which one do you want to be, should be on everyones mind. gold etf’s were introduced at this time for a reason, everyone needed a shorting vehicle on gold and the miners,
Reversal day in the works
MS
It’s right because i had read that, that i wrote you Gary….
Gary, they may keep the dollar down to give oil a boost.
Wow, “I think it’s ridiculous to expect ……… even cycles and sentiment to guide one flawlessly through the markets”, the pendulum swings in the opposite direction. Not sure about cycles. But sentiment seems to work fine at extremes. In between, problematic.
Right now, TQQQ and SOXL are the place to be. Oils and pms go to the back burner. Just common sense to go where the action is. No point in struggling with laggards.
Did i not say, over and over, to buy silver? I am back with my first trade with a whole different approach. I just wasn’t giving my trades enough time to mature and the wife agrees. I have been right so many times that i need to write a book. I am in SLV 1000 shares for 15.28. Buy silver and don’t listen to MSALLY as that one is a FED plant to keep you out of gold and the miners. Stay tuned for more winning ideas.
Back at your old game Biggy, keep me out your diatribe and tells us why silver is a buy.
Welcome back partner, remember to get in on the online gambling game, before you open your yap.
Gunslinging Sally
Bigdaddy: Welcome back but where in the world did you get the idea that Mustang Sally is a “FED plant”? That’s ridiculous. He has been pretty good with his calls. BTW, I agree with you on silver.
I thought we might get some SM downside today but so far, no joy. It sure looks toppy.
Are the American people giving Trump any credit for the incredible surge in the SM since his election? I don’t see how even a Democrat can ignore that inconvenient fact.
The snowflakes cannot get past their humiliating defeat and will grasp at anything (russian collusion) to try and taint Trump’s presidency. What we have here, is the result of “lets give all the kids a trophy for playing” coming to fruition – they simply cannot handle a loss.
With that said, the “deplorables” in this country could care less about collusion or anything else. They have an indelible smile on their faces, knowing the snowflakes have to wake up each and every day and eat crow. I am sure the 4 years will fly by, lol..
I think Trump is really trying hard to turn America around but I am disappointed that he is keeping us in the business of killing people who are no threat to the US (and that’s just what war is, a gruesome business). I hope that he can repair relations with Putin before our military-industrial complex gets their way and nukes Russia.
The millennial (snowflake) generation is probably the dumbest we have ever produced. My grandchildren have no clue what is going on in the world and spend most of their time looking at their friggen phones. I hate to say it but they don’t do any real thinking and are spoiled rotten.
JJ, It isn’t just your grandkids. Mine are lacking in the brain department too. My dog has more smarts.
The only thing that i’ve understood is that Today is COMPLETELY VAIN try to invest for the short time…. it’s easier to win at the casino. Money are made only catching the Mega Trend for the long term, not by trading.
That is my point of view, at least.
GDX is finally back above my buy in price. With all the negative talk about gold, I am very tempted to sell and wash my hands of it but isn’t that exactly what a retail investor would do? The metals have been a very poor investment while the stock market soars but their day is coming.
@JJHarmen Morning. Glad you are the green. The current sentiment readings;
GLD is 71
GDX is 68
GDXJ is 66.
80 would be considered excessive optimism. As you can see, today has ignited a lot of bullish sentiment. Personally, I can not be long gold with the dollar this far stretched. Hope you do well with your trade.
Hello Nada, where can I find these sentiment readings? Do you know of any good sentiment indicator?
sentimentrader.com is where I pulled the data. I believe they have a 30 day trial. The best thing I enjoy about the site is the “Optimism Index Heatmap”, which shows you a grouping of what is extreme optimism and pessimism. It looks like what you see on finviz, but based on sentiment vs whats up or down for the day.
Gary is absolutely right about a massive inflation event in the works. It’s already happening in real-estate.
It will make inequality today look tepid. Because the demarcation between the have’s and have-not’s will be at its most extreme in history by 2020.
Where is my good buddy Christian? He makes better calls than any one else here. Here is a tip guys: STAY AWAY FROM OIL STOCKS!!!! I will let you know when the time is right to buy.
NOO!!! I just bought DWT this AM!
Looking at SOXS again. The semis are looking shaky.
Bluelagoon, careful with being Long Energy here:
– XLE re-kissed its 50dma and got rejected
– so has Crude Oil
– NG double-topped and just went under 3.021, its level at the open of US trading hour today.
Next step: Watch XLE breaking its down trend line drawn by the lows on JUN21 (DCL) and JUL07 (HCL).
Second step: a bloodbath will ensue after the break
3rd step: Hunt the swing low in early August.
Thanks Alex. You gave me confidence I did a right move. Sold oil and EnCana with nice profit this morning. Will re-enter around 44. Intended to keep NG as I believe it to go to 4 and I have a nice cushion if it fall a bit.
Thanks Alex. I am watching UWT which does look like it’s going to correct after today since it’s failed to break that daily psar and go higher than last Friday’s high.
I’m going to wait until tomorrow though before making a trade.
I don’t get it anymore either: have we had the ICL and ware we back in bull territory now!?
No one here knows a damn thing. Most are saying that no more ICL because the dollar will just keep going down forever
Look at the weekly EW counts. 3-3-3-3-3 triangle in progress. One more wave down then up to
1500. Smart money has begun accumulation.
I told you this before, but I’ll tell you again. No one, and I mean absolutely no one, has a crystal ball. The quicker you get that through your head the quicker you will start making money in the market.
We don’t know yet whether this is an ICL. Right now we just have a bounce out of a daily cycle low with the expectacion that we should get one more leg down.
However the expectation was that the dollar cycle should have bottomed months ago so something strange is going on in the currency markets.
If the dollar just continues to fall and stretches the intermediate cycle who-knows-how-long then it is conceivable that gold has printed an ICL and this will turn into more than just a minor bounce out of a daily cycle low.
I think is time to reload on DUST
just bought 50% DUST 30.80
Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05
Nice results AT – you are quite the short term trader. If you don’t mind sharing – what indicators do you watch to signal your entries and exits?
I am wondering why everyone is getting back into DUST now. It looks like it has more downside to go.
These are your contest trades?
these are my contest , but also my real time trades; still in recovering mode after last Oct JNUG 23 loss …
Dear Victor, you’re welcome.
Yes, as long as you have put your stop loss in place it should be ok.
The only risk lies w/ an after- or pre-market sudden down move of NG in case you’re trading it via an etf; it also happens that NG is pretty volatile.
I on the other hand have my stop-loss at 3.051 for my short NG trade.
XLE at declining trendline YET AGAIN, also at 50ma overhead. A fail to break through and remain above it means yet more ass-pounding for ERX bagholders.
That didn’t take long!!
$gold has made a weekly swing low, FWIW. It is also in the timing band for an ICL.
“Deflation is a myth”
Just to be sure we’re talking about the same thing, “inflation” is not rising prices, or a rising stock market. Rising prices are just “an effect caused by” inflation. Inflation is the destruction of the value of a currency due a constant increase in the supply of that currency. Therefore, “de”flation is an increase in the buying power of that currency due to a reduction in the number of those currency units available. How could a currency possibly disappear? By a reversal of the process by which it was created in the first place.
99% of all currency on the planet was literally loaned into existence. In other words, most currency in the world came into existence because somewhere along the line ‘somebody’ borrowed it. Therefore, every dollar of debt represents one dollar of currency.
If any large corporation goes bankrupt, or any sovereign nation goes bankrupt, most of the debt that entity holds will go unpaid. Every dollar of that unpaid debt represents one dollar of money “in existence”. When that debt goes unpaid, those dollars cease to exist. They literally vanish right back into the imaginary void they were birthed from in the first place. And the next big default that happens represents just the first domino, in a row of dominos miles long. But I imagine that could never happen, since there has never been a bankruptcy in human history. Apparently Lehman Bros. never happened.
Anybody who thinks the FED or the ECB or the BIS any other central bank has the power to print enough money to cover the global debt implosion that is about to happen is delusional. Remember how John Paulson had to squeal like a stuck pig just to get a gift of $600 billion to bail out the same banks who cause this entire mess in the first place? What are the odds the squealing bankers are going to get their way next time?
The size of the amount of outstanding debt in this world is almost incomprehensible. It absolutely dwarfs anything any central bank could ever print. Is the FED going to print 10 or $20 TRILLION dollars in the event the USA defaults? That’s 20000 billion dollars folks. I don’t think so. And that just represents the ‘reported’ USA debt. Overall global debt is over 1 *quad*rillion dollars. Does anybody realize how much debt that really is? One quadrillion is 1,000,000 Billions. Does anybody really believe that debt is actually going to ever be paid off? No it isn’t. Not *ever*.
Let’s consider an analogy:
1 million seconds = 11.5 days
1 billion seconds = 31.7 years
1 trillion seconds = 31,700 years
USA’s $20T debt would represent 634,000 years
1 quadrillion seconds = 31,700,000 years… far less than the amount of time it would take to pay it off.
If “deflation is a myth”, then 1929 never happened. And since it “never happened”, I guess it could never happen again.
We were on a gold standard, or a gold exchange standard, back then. Huge difference. The Fed and US govt will never ever let the TBTF banks go under, if that wasn’t already made crystal clear in 2008. The TBTFs are even bigger now, which means it is even more unlikely that they would be allowed to go under.
Albertarocks sounds very smart although i am not sure what his point is. I think he might be Canadian and they tend to be smarter than Americans. Canadians don’t have to dumb down the education system to make sure everyone passes grade one because half the class has a 75 IQ.
75 IQ? Where did that come from? What is your IQ BD?
I sometimes watch American TV and it’s one show full of imbeciles after another. Even the newscasters sound stupid. I can’t even understand some of them even though they are supposed to be speaking English. I don’t know what my IQ is but my wife says i am the smartest man she has ever been with.
Apparently you don’t understand the power of counterfeiting. It doesn’t matter how many trillions of debt a government owes as long as it has the use of a printing press there is no way it can possibly default. We can eventually break the currency though which would cause an inflation.
This is why Nixon took us off of the gold standard in the early 70s. There was no way we were ever going to pay for the Vietnam War without the ability to counterfeit as many dollars as needed. Predictably it created a massive inflationary problem just like our current situation will.
The reason 1929 happened was because the currency was backed by gold. The country couldn’t expand the money supply at will. Did you conveniently forget that just as soon as Roosevelt took us off the gold standard deflation ended.
Actually, you only need a computer. Most of the money just gets electronically transferred to the end user (bank) and then doled out to the consumer loans etc. All electronic, very little actual paper money. That is the really scary part and that is why we have to be careful if too much actual paper money ever comes home to roost.
“Apparently you don’t understand the power of counterfeiting.”
Why would you make that silly assumption? There is no reason to get insulting, although I realize that is your standard MO. Of course I understand it… without it none of this insane debt expansion would have been possible. Who here is arguing “why” all this debt expansion and money printing is happening? Not me. Just you, arguing with yourself.
I guess I have to copy and paste the question again… “The size of the amount of outstanding debt in this world is almost incomprehensible. It absolutely dwarfs anything any central bank could ever print. Is the FED going to print 10 or $20 TRILLION dollars in the event the USA defaults? That’s 20000 billion dollars folks. I don’t think so. And that just represents the ‘reported’ USA debt. Overall global debt is over 1 *quad*rillion dollars. Does anybody realize how much debt that really is? One quadrillion is 1,000,000 Billions. Does anybody really believe that debt is actually going to ever be paid off? No it isn’t. Not *ever*.”
…and… ‘Remember how John Paulson had to squeal like a stuck pig just to get a gift of $600 billion to bail out the same banks who cause this entire mess in the first place? What are the odds the squealing bankers are going to get their way next time? ”
A few people here seem to be just assuming that somehow I’m some sort of enemy to this blog for simply pointing out some facts. Nothing could be further from the truth. Do I think gold is going higher? You’d better believe it. Because the system is broken, in an absolute shambles. We will probably continue to see inflation until one day, bam… the currencies simply cease to exist in their current form. That doesn’t change the fact that all this debt has to be dealt with. The deflation unwind would then have to happen with the disappearance of the existing currencies entirely and the creation of a new currency or ‘form of’ currency.
“It absolutely dwarfs anything any central bank could ever print.”
This is a completely illogical assumption. What in the world would stop them?
Heck we don’t even need paper anymore. The Fed just adds zeros with a key stroke. They already printed about 12 trillion. Why couldn’t they print 100 trillion or a thousand trillion?
The only thing stopping them is the potential to break the currency, but they clearly don’t seem to be too worried about that.
Let’s say you have the ability to add money to your bank account by simply clicking your mouse. You can add any amount of money you wish. In this scenario how is it possible to ever spend more than you can pay?
The smart money hasn’t caught on to my SLV purchase yet. I also bought 500 SOXS at 26.50. It’s a steal at that price. Don’t waste your time with DUST. that one is for losers.
SMH $85 to $85.50 has decent volume support and MACD/RSI are in upturn, bull mode. Not somewhere I’d want to go short semis, with a 3x ETF to boot, ESPECIALLY with all the tech stocks starting to report earnings.
Actually, if SMH fails at this point , the monthly chart will exhibit a perfect head and shoulder pattern. The RSI is coming off an extreme reading and headed down so a bearish bet may pay off. I am holding SOXS also so I am naturally biased towards the downside.
Miners acting extremely weak relative to the metals. People are shorting/selling on any strength.
Spanky, what are you talking about ? GLD is up .57% and GDX is more than double that, up 1.28%. What is wrong with that miner performance?
GLD is making higher highs on the daily chart, while the GDX:GLD ratio is stuck going sideways.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p79004518001&a=534837792&listNum=1
I think the miners are just getting started.
Trade DuJour, DWT in at 32.09, out at 33.01 on 1000 shares. Could get a quick bounce back in oil shortly. Going to wait until tomorrow to reload UWT unless things get ugly quickly the rest of today.
My comment on the 15th of June:
” Gold = 11-17 June”. Gold made a low on the 10th. Slep had a turning point on 10-11th July. No bull market yet.
Palobar – I had made a note of your predictions – congrats on getting it right. Do you have a prediction on how far this gold rally will go or when the next turning point is?
@bluelagoon thank you for your nice words. I will do my homework and share my thoughts here by the end of this week.
Thanks Palobar – look fwd to your thoughts.
He y Biggy:
The smart money has not caught on to your slv trade is because they are loading on the shorts..I think the stupid money as caught on to your trade, please listen to your wife,
Slamin Sallly
“felix115
July 17, 2017 at 6:42 am
Scuse me Gary, i’ve listened you for the last 3 months say that gold will go 100% to test the low base of the triangle, price trgt. beetwin 1160/1180…. Now you open the door to other scenario…. maybe the low is already in…. 😮 ”
Gary is adjusting his predictions … interesting
Today is the 17th of July, I’ve been waiting for this day, trading wise, since 20th of December and Gary talks about manipulation of assets lately causing this market. I would say he is misinformed or if this is true it was visible 7 months ago.
My final post for a while. I am on vacation!
Yeah, dboz I just gave myself a little pat on my back 😛
@Steffmeister I know you were bullish gold from your previous posts, but can you expand on why July 17th is important – and more importantly, how it was recognized on December 20th. I am guessing this is related to the gravitational forces of Io being amplified by the impending orbit cross from Europa and Ganymede?
The last sentence was a little sarcasm, but in all honesty I am interested in your conclusion and how it was derived. I see little to celebrate in regards to gold price movements, so maybe we are talking about something other than precious metals. Cheers and enjoy the vacation!
This gold miner rally seems strange. Its not the same as the usual rallies from ICL. I say we head back down im going against Gary and everyone else here
@Robert Not everyone else. I am sure there are several people short gold on this blog. I highlighted that I was from last week.
Okey, maybe I was a little bit too cocky here, I got carried away, I need to wait for gold to close above 1236 for three days and Yamana to close above 3.20CAD.
#Nada, please, my analysis is very simple, it’s right in front of you but nobody uses it, I wonder why? The thing about fractals is that you can not show it in public, then the scenario will break or people are going to try to front run it.
Hasta la Vista, vamos a la playa 🙂
Apparently most of you can’t seem to understand English. Here is is again.
“We don’t know yet whether this is an ICL. Right now we just have a bounce out of a daily cycle low with the expectacion that we should get one more leg down.
However the expectation was that the dollar cycle should have bottomed months ago so something strange is going on in the currency markets.
If the dollar just continues to fall and stretches the intermediate cycle who-knows-how-long then it is conceivable that gold has printed an ICL and this will turn into more than just a minor bounce out of a daily cycle low.”
I don’t know how much clearer I can be. My expectation is that gold should have one more leg down once this bounce out of the DCL is complete. But if the Fed prevents the dollar from producing an intermediate rally then who knows, maybe this was the final bottom.
If you can tell me where central banks are going to force the currencies in the months ahead then I can probably give you a pretty good idea of where gold is going. The problem is none of us know where the currencies are going to be pushed and pulled to in the weeks and months ahead.
So far a perfect backtest. Let’s see if it scares everyone and dips back into the triangle.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/eGGWhw6I/
Once the Buck finds a bottom.. It will trend all the way back up to the channel trendline — that should put pressure on Gold and Miners.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/wBfafK1N/
Cowboy Chris: If you go up a few posts you will see my markers for usd , they align with the top of the flag, So one could short gold miners up to the second marker and wait and see what it does.
MS
agree, dollar up and Gold down soon …
Thanks palobar for reminding everyone of our excellent calls for a low in gold. I do agree with you that we have not yet seen the final low in this bear market.
Who’s Palobar? Friend of yours..?
Nevermind I got it
Yeah, Palobar is a great guy, guy! I met him in a bar one time in Timbuktu. He and I discussed the gold market, and found out that we have similar views. Nah, I’m just kidding. 😎
Dunce hats will be awarded at the end of the trading day.
Gary, I don’t think we have seen the 3yr cycle rally yet. Maybe in a week or two when the large spec’s are net short we get our 3 to 4 month trading range. I think the pm’s are going to frustrate a whole lot of people over the next couple of months. I see them possibly rallying with the dollar for a while before we get the pm slam towards the end of the 3yr cycle rally. Its probably going to be a mistake to put any emphasis on the gold/dollar inverse relationship over the next couple of month’s. During this period I think the market makers are going to try to confuse as many people as possible.
Today was a big nothing burger. Dead,
Bigdaddy, if you are back in silver expect volatility ahead. SIL should be a leading indicator. Draw a trendline on the weekly chart from Feb-1 to April-10 to present day. You will see that we have penetrated that trendline on 4 different occasions but never closed above it. If we get a weekly close above it this week that should give you blue sky’s for a while. Just remember that you have COT levels that are very favorable for a run in silver over the intermediate term. If we get some weakness ahead use it to your advantage……….not the market makers.
Gents, I am a newer premium member and been following Gary before premium since middle of 2016. There are lots of haters here on the free blog which he gives a lot to. If you feel you don’t quite understand why or when Gary makes moves, try the month for $50. If you have time to put in and at least $25k you are trading with I’ll tell you that one trade can make two years subscription be free. He has helped me stay level headed as I trade JNUG/JDST on a weekly basis as well as my longs in banks and tech. I have now been adding COP, PSX are recent levels and Gary has some good thoughts there. His analysis revolves around cycles but unlike most he is willing to make a pivot when the market tells him the timing isn’t perfect. I must say for an old timer he’s been pretty nimble in the miners as it’s been hard to set and forget a position for the lack of trend as they fight for direction. In my mind the next leg is down, which JDST and DUST may not bottom until we get a false break above 1249 which is the declining 50-day MA. That move would create bullish sentiment and good volume for banks to load shorts. This could only be final YCL in gold if bond market wasn’t going to rollover and DXY wasn’t going to get a relief rally. Both of which will happen, but Gary will let the market speak if he is wrong on timing. He can be early at times but sometimes it’s hard to chase when you are late so taking half positions in these volatile commodity markets is something I have seen him do and suggest which has worked to confirm or average down positions… if I was Gary I would be even more short with some of you given the nonsense that is discussed. Gary is talking down to you because this is charity and really valuable information that many of you seem to squander. So just for an example on a miners trade I was in three weeks back Gary exited his short on a Wednesday which prompted me to follow him and switch to long. I wouldnt have made the move without the nudge from him by his move and just that one 24hr block I came out on top $1700. So as far as I’m concerned the immediate updates via text have paid for 3 years membership and thats one example of several in just past two months. I live in New York and work in foreign exchange and have worked in the commodities market, and I must say Gary highlights points on timing and macro trends that many guys making few hundred K aren’t thinking about. He is best on trends but even the day trading timing can be assisted by daily updates and a voice of reason when struggling on a decision to cut a loser or keep a winner all the way. Good food for thought, as a $50 investment seems like something all of you can afford… and just one month of daily updates will change the way you view trading and the macro market. We are close to the new bull market in gold and Gary is someone I want by my side as I know I can convert his advice into more alpha and more focus. This could be final bottom in gold for 2017, but I highly doubt it.
To be sure, just knowing when Gary takes profits on NUGT and switches over to the short side will get you much more than $50 ante if you trade with real money it can return 10f in 24hrs… Gary may not like me saying this but seriously guys you are disrespecting a man who has earned my respect, and that means something. As of right now, JNUG or DIE mindset… soon enough we will be back in JDST or DIE territory. Usdjpy 111.7 w BOJ Thursday before open and ECB with first opportunity to pivot currencies ahead of July-26 FOMC. eurusd will collapse soon to retrace 1.04-1.15 move and 1.1075 support will be tested on DXY relief rally as far as I can see. The trigger to watch for eurusd is Bond/Bund selloff ratio as once we move back towards the mean spread there, eurusd will lose an important source of support given Bunds have sold off way more than Treasuries of recent bottom for rates. Gold will go sub 1184-1177 with GDX sub-$19.8 then sub-$18.5 w GDXJ tracking towards $27.5 once the gap fills this week on the hourly @ $33.25 which will line up with $18+ JNUG which is a level to take profits into and maybe scalp until DUST/JDST bottom. This my first post to this site and I will check back later tonight after steak dinner w wifey…
My god, that was the longest post ever! Just kidding, anyway.. I don’t see too many lash out at Gary and certainly have not seen anything recent. Cheers and enjoy the time with the wife!
I’m also gonna have to disagree with the ‘lash outs’ that you speak of, and I’ve been following Gary for just a little over 3 years now. The problem with the Blog is that we often get trolls and parasites that have nothing better to do then to pollute this place — they offer nothing of value and are often vicious when told to take a hike. If you hang around here long enough you’ll notice that I’m usually the first one to tell them to F*ck off!
Agree that Gary is pretty awesome for the most part, although sometimes he does sound like a broken record, Lol 🙂
FYI, my only two metals trades in past four weeks:
6/29/17 — BUY 750 JDST @ $64.23
6/30/17 — BUY 750 JDST @ $63.86
7/7/17 — SELL 1000 JDST @ $78.00
7/7/17 — SELL 500 JDST @ $77.62
7/8/17 — BUY 5000 JNUG @ 15.55
7/8/17 — BUY 2500 JNUG @ 15.73
Holding 7500 JNUG shares and will take profits when gap fills on GDXJ @ $33.25 then wait for JDST bottom or maybe some scalp on JNUG if it runs past $18 but only on intraday basis as pivot will be vicious on a DXY bottom & swing just as we saw in the global bond market few weeks back which was juice for gold shorts to test 1200. Gary helped me w timing my short exits there too which netted me over 5k compared to my plan without his input… so yes it pays to invest $50 rather than chirp and take jabs at 10% of his analysis. No skin off my back but hey if I saw post similar to this maybe I would have gotten involved sooner and made a few extra mortgage payments by now… won’t be a bad investment of your time…
Now that the industrial metals are perking up can gold and oil be far behind? The way it usually works A copper top with gold the last to leave the dance floor. Hope the late cycle stuff really starts to kick in.
I have no positions and have no trades. I am waiting for Gary’s triangle to complete. The .75 timespan of the triangle duration is late September, early October. When the lower trend line is reached I will bet my entire bankroll.
The DCH in gold & GDX will take as long as it takes — after a little intraday pullback, of course, which will also take as long as it takes. Intraday pullback could commence on Tuesday and last until next Tuesday. FOMC meeting might send gold & GDX up to their DCH’s. That’s my current timeline, which may or may not be accurate. I believe the market moves I suggest are looking likely — though the market may not give a hoot about my timeline. The timing part is just my best guess.
Meanwhile, it feels like forever. Waiting all the US day for EURUSD to either top out, or show more bullishness… and it just crawls along, taking everything else I watch with it!
I began the exercise at the end of Trading in the Zone this week, ready for the above mentioned signal, but that signal has not yet come — nor has there been a different signal suggesting something else is going on (significantly more EURUSD upside is NOT apparent either).
Last week, I’d have shorted the Euro prematurely — actually, I did. This week, wait until I see an objective, clearly defined signal, with no subjective interpretation, projection, or expectation. So far, I haven’t seen it.
But daily chart on Euro is starting to look progressively more bearish.
DXY is still showing very weak POSITIVE correlation with gold;
EURUSD is showing weak NEGATIVE correlation with gold;
USDJPY still shows very strong negative correlation with gold;
on the respective daily charts.
Looks like we got some good old banter, lots a time tonite so I looked at the dr, to see how he was feeling. My marker for Dr, Copper is 2.46, Like tesla I will short like mad as soon as it crosses. My gut is stlll thinking that this in end the but I will wait till the good dr, gives the final signal
MS
Thanks MS, I hesitated to sell but looks like I better do it . Hopefully your mark is good. Copper futures define next move in silver. Pull back and re-load both….
Bonjour Mr.Vic
Don’t be to quick to reload if it blows my marker it is going to run a few stops and run quite a few points down. Its a bear if it does,
Ms Mustang
Here’s another thought for everyone to ponder, lets assume the US economy is in the tank, how does the gov;t get it going, get the housing market going, been there done that, give out money, been there done that, raise interest , sorry can;t do that, inflate the stock market to make companies look, good been there done that,
So what the heck is left, well a hint will be to watch dr, copper and mr oil. Don’t for one second the great Uof SA will roll over and die.
Looking for anwers
MS
MS
Christian,
“The problem with the Blog is that we often get trolls and parasites that have nothing better to do…”
I hear ya bro. I have just done 80/20 analysis on the blog ( >80% of the posts are useless, but <20% might be interesting). Then I dusted off my "Page Down" key… and now I fly thru the blog, w/o wasting time and energy.
Much cleaner & more interesting after I apply my personalized filters!
Gary,
You should forget the USD. Over the past 200 days the correlation with gold is -.67 and headed toward 0. Over the past 20 days it is +.61.
A useless indicator.
Good Summer Morning to everyone: Resolve date is coming very soon, the chest beating has come to a high peak which generally is a good indicator that something of magnitude will happen,. Which side or you on or just playing it safe, Enter into Gay;s on line bingo and really show us where you stand, and don;t make up some excuse you don;t have time. if you are posting here you have time, just like. Please Gary do us all a favor and post who is on line bingo,
Bingo crazy Sally