GOLD ICL CONFIRMED

It appears the US Dollar has bottomed following an intermediate degree correction. This suggests that the dollar will rally for 6-8 weeks while gold heads lower. Gold has decisively broken down through its 200 dma. Traders are in a bull market mentality and will try to buy gold’s dips until sentiment becomes bearish. Expect gold to continue lower over the next 4- 8 weeks.

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543 thoughts on “GOLD ICL CONFIRMED

    1. troybombardia

      I think figuring out ICL’s for USD’s bear markets is kind of futile. Look at the USD after it topped in 1985 and 2002. There were no sizeable rallies. It just went straight down with tiny bounces along the way.

    1. Gary Post author

      Just paying it by ear at the moment. I think at least tests the triangle trend line I’ve been showing for months. After that we’ll see.

  1. Christian

    Congratulations to all those who had the balls to exercise a bit of patience whilst shorting the Miners πŸ™‚

    Knowledge, Conviction and PATIENCE is how you make money in the Markets.. Blabbering on a financial blog such as this one is not.

      1. Christian

        I guess it all depends on your timeframe but you’re gonna lose a big chunk of your profits when Gold drops down into its ICL.

        Silver will follow and break critical support @15.75 and possibly re-test 13.62

  2. Don

    Gold is now 5.8% down from it’s 2017 high. GDX is down nearly triple that at 16.4%. How much more downside can realistically be expected for GDX?

    1. Christian

      Miners are rough Don. GDX topped at 31.79 last year and then spent the next several months dropping all the way back down to 18.52

      GDX — Support @17 is very much in the cards. Anybody buying now is asking for an ASS-KICKING! Yes, even those of you brave enough to scalp.

      1. Steffmeister

        #Don

        I think there is a great chance this would turn around sooner, I’ve mentioned several times 7-10 days from now.

        The only ASS here is Christian, coming out yelling after the drop, what a moron! Yes I might be wrong but that’s not the point.

        1. Christian

          What do you mean ‘coming out yelling after the drop’?? I’ve been SHORT MINERS longer than most on this blog and all of my trade have been posted in real time. And leave my beautiful Ass out of this, Lol! Goofball!

          1. Steffmeister

            haha who is the goofball, you are the one watching your own ass, not me πŸ˜›

  3. Don

    I think it’s a mistake to be so focused on the US dollar and how it may affect gold . That is just a very American view point put forth by Gary and several others on this blog. The dollar fell and gold did not go up but now it is assumed that if the dollar rallies, gold will fall. Why? It is a flawed assumption and Canadians, Brits, Japanese, etc, don’t see it that way.

    The dollar could go up and gold with it. Watch the Yen, not the dollar.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Don’t know but Craig Hemke at TFMetals noticed this correlation years ago and I even told you about well over a year ago – check it out.

  4. jacob2

    DON, AND the dollar went up today gold down but vitually all the softs, industrial metals and of course oil traded sharply higher. INteresting? What’s correllated with what?

      1. Gary Post author

        I don’t know about $600 silver but I do think we will eventually see 7,000-10,000 gold during the end game.

        As I’ve been saying for years this is going to end in the currency markets as all this global QE will eventually break the currencies causing inflation. Right now the inflation is mostly manifesting in the stock market. I think it will continue until stocks make a parabolic run into a bubble and the bubble pops.

        When it pops then the inflation will have to find something else to land on. That’s when I think it gets into the commodity markets, and especially gold.

      2. Bigdaddy

        Steff, the second video is even worse. that woman has no idea what she is talking about, in my humble opinion. My dog knows more than that silly bitch. Buy silver though.

    1. Robert

      Thought you said the miners would probably just have a mild slow grind down into the ICL with no big down days. I see you always talk about GDX but no one here is talking about the juniors anymore. How far down can GDXJ go?

  5. FoolsGold

    The DXY has nothing to do with the Comex price setting for gold. DXY gets hammered and paper gold doesn’t go up.

    All that matters is what the Commercial market riggers are doing. Over the last 3 weeks they have been suckering the Specs into selling and going short while they cover and go long. Same as it has always been. Gold can certainly go up with the DXY and has in the past. Watching the COT reports is the only indicator that matters for the direction of the next Spec paper price fleecing cycle.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you ignore the day to day fluctuations, and look at a very long term chart you will see that for the most part gold goes down as the dollar goes up. Yes sometimes sentiment can get extreme or a geopolitical event can boost both gold and the dollar, but these are always temporary and soon the inverse relationship resumes.
      So I wouldn’t count on gold rising along with the dollar especially after an almost 6 month rally.

      Just a little common sense would suggest that after rallying for 6 months gold needs to take a breather.

  6. zkotpen

    Bubbles… I just had a vision of more gurgling sort of bubbles than big giant explosive bubbles that people seem to think of. Lots of shifting gurgling bubbles.

    Of course, that doesn’t help figure out what’s up in the precious metals over the next few years as they continue to consolidate… or the drop down to the 750 area into the mid 2020s after that.

    Next up in precious metals is neither a massive explosive bubble,
    nor a gurgling bubble,
    but rather FOMC minutes!
    And then Employment Report!!
    Coming soon!!!
    Toute de suite!!!!

    1. Bigdaddy

      zkotpen, ” shifting gurgling bubbles”. What the hell is that supposed to mean? How does a bubble shift or even gurgle? And who cares about mid 2020? i might be dead by then. Could you predict something sooner like maybe within in the next two or three months?

  7. Bigdaddy

    I don’t know why you guys are messing with gold. Silver is going to be the next big winner. The world’s supply is being drawn down by the solar panel industry. I am even thinking of putting solar panels on my roof. Silver is dirt cheap. I have 1000 SLV at 15.37 and should have bought more. Don’t listen to downer talk. Maybe i will pick up something on the Canadian market today.

  8. Bigdaddy

    Can anyone recommend a good place to buy silver coins? I was reading that would be the best currency t in the event that the US decides to add Russia to it’s long list of countries it loves to bomb. Probably a bad idea. There would be some real serious blow back, don’t you think?
    The US dollar would be worth shit in a big hurry as would New York real estate. Silver, guns, ammo and toilet paper would be the best things to have lots of.

      1. Bigdaddy

        You can buy all the food and water you need with silver as a currency. I’ll bet even Walmart would take silver, at least those that are in out of the way areas and still standing.

  9. Bigdaddy

    I gotta go, the dog needs to get out and visit the neighbor’s yard. I will check back to see if anyone knows of a good place to get sliver coins (as in not too much markup).

    1. roadrunner

      Both you and matrix make the same assumption…that is that the fiat currency’s that exist today will exist in their present form in 2031 or 2047. History says you will be wrong on that assumption. therefore your price of gold will be wrong.

      1. matrix

        it took 30 yrs. from top to top, 1980 to 2011, and fiat currency was still there. 20 yrs. from top to bottom and 10 yrs. from bottom to top. Same cycle may apply from 2011 top. Hope we will be present at that time….haha…..!!!!

        1. roadrunner

          ah yes the 30 year sample…of one. so you think what happened between 1980 and 2011 will repeat the same pattern for the next 30 years? how about all the previous 30 year tops to tops?..wait i don’t think they exist do they…was 1950 a top? how about 1930? if it was only that simple. so let me offer this prediction. the dollar as it is constituted today will not exist in 2031…but an ounce of gold will still be an ounce of gold…same as it ever was..

  10. Ed

    Gary, change that heading like someone else has already mentioned. It’s Dollar ICL not Gold. Gold has still a long way to go until at least end of July. Speak with some consistency. Sometimes you just confuse people.

    KLDX, anyone following this miner?
    Why is this miner only green out of sea of red?

  11. Gary Post author

    Just like I predicted, Traders still trying to pick a bottom. They have become locked into a bullish mindset. This will change when we get the bottom and none of these people will be at all interested in buying gold. Instead they will be expecting gold to continue down forever. We will be hearing predictions for sub $1,000 gold again.

    I’ve been doing this for many many years and this never changes. At tops no one wants to sell and at bottoms no one wants to buy. When we get to the point where no one wants to buy that will be the point where you need to be buying.

  12. mustang sally

    Gary I could not resist to comment on your claptrap, on june 28 you could not believe that anyone would be buying dust, now I don;t know you change your song every 3 days. I wanted to be first in line to give you my sub 1000 prediction today, since you are so adamant about this not going below.

    Oh and by the way I won’t be trading my dust until around August 1 and it will be wellnorth of 400. how is them apples for us peasants who can’t trade like you.

    Ride em dusty
    See you August 1

    Mustang Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      This is what I said on the 28th.

      “.

      Right now it’s just nuts to get excessively bullish with the dollar at risk of putting in a major degree bottom at any day.”

      I’m clearly not bullish on miners yet. I was still expecting the sector to churn, fleecing both bulls and bears.

      I think we now have confirmation that tbe sector is ready to trend.

  13. mustang sally

    And by the way Gary don’t think I am just picking on you, Mustang Sally and all her other names will be visiting all your other newsletter writer promo sites

    Mustang Sally

  14. victor

    Bigdaddy
    Silver is going to be the next big winner. The world’s supply is being drawn down by the solar panel industry. I am even thinking of putting solar panels on my roof.
    Yes silver is going to be in bigger demand then gold but wait with solar roof, it’s going to be much more efficient and cheaper. Silver here exchanged by aluminum with the same efficiency. Accumulated lots of shares, waiting for update soon. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/natcore-surpasses-20-efficiency-milestone-130000867.html

  15. Ed

    It’s most ironic when the gold gets a smack down like one we just had. People complain about unseen dark bank cartel dumping paper future contracts when in reality it just is physical demand not meeting up with physical supply. For this you have no one to blame but miners themselves and oil price. And India. Future contract dumplings work only because there is no demand of physical gold. Until we have an overwhelming demands for physical gold, Gold will remain #1 enemy of fiat currencies and that reason alone should be a good enough reason to see many more smackdowns ahead.

  16. Steffmeister

    Oh crap I missed the gap in GDXJ from 9th May, I looked at the gap from 2nd June and it was closed yesterday…

    A potential 18% decline in JNUG the coming days πŸ™

      1. jacob2

        Copper is saying something. Bull flags on both. Yesterdays action was interesting a sell off in gold and growth ( ex biotech) but big buys in the value end of the market; materials, energy, industrials and softs. Sector rotation is alive and well. No crystal ball but if copper is speaking we’re about to get going on inflation?

  17. Ed

    As long as we have dual citizens ultra globalists sitting in our FOMC meetings, America is doomed.
    As today being Independence Day, I want to quote what Thomas Jefferson said about a Central Bank.
    “The [private] Central Bank is an institution of the most deadly hostility existing against the principles and form of our constitution… If the American people allow private banks to control issuance of their curtency…, the bank and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all their property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered.”

  18. Ed

    I want everyone in this blog to aware that Gary treat people differently based on subscription status. which is fair IMO. So don’t hold your breath waiting his all clear signs. If that ever comes on this free site, you can bet your a** that he already taken positions well before that. So don’t waste your breath extolling his flip flops. This site is just his advertising tool.

      1. Ed

        It’s common sense until some bloggers here thinking they are going to some type of confirmation where Gary sometime let these people hang dried well past time. While he is so often opinionated about his timing, his success and boosting about how great his performance were. when his timing is a way off he keeps it quiet. I saw many instances here where people complaining about losing opportunities taking positions because of his so convincing and opinionated timing of actions.By the time people complaining about missed opportunities, he will tell you he and his subscribers already taken actions a way back when time was right. I think that’s pretty bad. I bet there many bloggers here that give Gary some great trading information or perspectives as well through this open blog.

  19. dboz

    My prediction is miners took the severe beat down last year as the get rich quick people bailed at the end of the year as the sector collapsed from Sept to Dec. Because speculators have left also explains why miners did not rise with gold. No volume. Just bugs. That’s why miners look a little more stable now. Many are still up on early 2016 purchases off the bottom. If spot continues to tank the pain will increase and force more to bail on their positions and lock in profit.

    If we are going to take off it’s because new money comes in driving up volume and then price. Look at GDX volume. It’s crystal clear. Ramp up into the peak last summer and ramp down ever since. It’s going to take a whole lot of gold upside to make believers that metals are going back the ATH to create FOMO. This nose dive killed the sentiment. I really do think it’s a real possibility that a bear market is going to resume shortly. There is simply no reason to get on board metals eithout a 1375 plus run up. I really don’t see how we get there from here. The uptrend will now be resistance and it will be pretty strong resistance. It’s going to take big buying on big volume from big money. Bugs and sector regulars will not have the juice. I no longer see the fundamental case for higher gold especially with cryptos being talked about by the general public. That’s where the gold money is going and I don’t see it changing until the crypto trade sours, which looks a long way off.

  20. dboz

    The amazing thing that should raise the most concern is that everyone expected the drop and we still got it. So no market surprises to the upside in over 18 months. Not exactly bull market activity. Instead repeated big moves to the downside, bear market activity. If we don’t have a significant rebound quickly, sentiment damage will just be too great to get anyone wanting to place money in miners.

    Why would you? Limited upside and still massive downside to 2015 lows on top of the risk that many miners simply can’t afford another round of declining income and regression back to starvation mode. We are still at all time low miners valuations.

    No matter what you think about manipulation, there is no other market that defies logic more than the PM space.

    At this point I am just hoping for one more ride up to the downside trend line so I can recoup most of my losses from the last year of beat down. I finally listened to Gary and sold waiting for a better time to load up to hopefully catch a 30% rise.

    Gold just dropped 20 bucks in a day on a 45 cent dollar rise, you don’t have to be a chart genius to see what will happen if the dollar get 2_3_4 bucks on a rally.

    I have gold sentiment way lower than Gary says. I get my numbers from the Chicago commodity exchange.

    The daily charts show both gold and silver oversold, but we saw last year where they stayed that way for 2 months. Still waiting to see that on the overbought side which would indicate a true bull market.

    I think many are hoping for a bull vs actually convincingly seeing any evidence we are in one. Minimal upside, then sideways to down for 18 months. I realize the bear was long and we could trade in this range for years longer.

    1. Gary Post author

      Sentiment damage is what we need. Remember markets act like a pendulum. The further price gets pulled in one direction the more violent the reaction once the selling or the buying reaches exhaustion. We probably need to move back below 1150 to set up the next leg to 1400.

  21. dboz

    Final thought, red days show bigger volume than green days on GDX although Monday was light volume on a big down day possibly due to less market participation due to the holiday. One more death drop should cure that.

  22. primetime

    The best thing I did over the holiday is to buy a much bigger shovel, the BS is getting sooooooooo deep on here. Just admit it, no one knows which way this market will go or when.

    In two years, Gary has never provided advice to make any real money. This couple thousand dollars here and there is garbage for the birds. I understand this is a free blog, and if it is used as advertising, it may be failing marketing 101.

    I trade on my own and also follow the advice of Savage and if he could ever provide advice to make some real money I would gladly subscribe.

    Currently, his stance is like most, big on exaggeration, but short on high society.

    1. Christian

      Hey Primetime — Could you do everyone a favour and just SHUT THE F*CK up once and for all?!

      Some of us are actually quite good at this and providing others who are just getting starting with useful info for free. Your Asinine opinions are no longer welcome here πŸ™‚ Please go to sleep..!

      1. primetime

        How much does Gary pay you for policing the site Christine? I am sure you are one of those dumb F*cks who use to get beat up every day at school for being such a stupid little schmuck.

        I can appreciate your loyalty to Gary, it is obvious you are his disciple. But seriously, don’t get so distraught when someone calls it like it is.

        And how the hell are you any good by the way? Like most, a self proclaimed know it all!

    2. Gary Post author

      I’ve been telling you for weeks which way the miners and metals were going to go. How could you not make money?

      And I believe it was you who said if I was correct about the sector going down you would buy a subscription, so I think you already owe me.

    1. mexican

      I cannot believe the childish bullshit that some of you are posting on this blog, Man grow some balls or just disappear!!! This is a investor blog not a call each other names blog and that i told you so!! grow up, and you know who you are! Get a life or leave. Surprised that Gary puts up with all your shit comments!!!!!!!!!!!!!! My 6 year old is more intelligent than some of you!!!!

      1. Gary Post author

        Silver and miners have already confirmed lower lows and lower highs. Stair stepping down is the final confirmation that an intermediate degree decline is underway. It’s only a matter of time before gold also drops below the May low and delivers the final confirmation that an ICL is in progress. At that point we need one of two things to happen. Either the dollar tops (still many weeks away) or sentiment reaches a bearish extreme and we run out of sellers ( also many weeks away).

          1. Gary Post author

            Gold closed below the lower Bollinger band. That usually triggers at least a one or two day bounce. A bear flag wouldn’t be unusual followed by a break of the May low.

            Remember, an ICL has to have at least one failed daily cycle. And the dollar has to rally far enough to break the intermediate trend line before the intermediate cycle tops. So I wouldn’t look for a final bottom in gold until the dollar reaches 100-102.

            The rest of the week I need to see if the dollar confirms Monday as a final ICL.

  23. Goild

    Well I see likely TMF ($20.75) and FAZ ($16.39) to have a good day tomorrow.

    Note that GDX is the fourth ETF with largest volume. This indicates that miners aren’t forgotten.

    When the day comes, gold would not be gentle in rising. In a matter of a few days it may reach heaven.

      1. KHT

        I didn`t get my fill pre-market but am holding off on a buy for now. Looks like ERX turned back into the channel. Still sitting on my DSLV. If spot breaks below 15.86 later after the Fed minutes at 2 I may add to my position as i believe a deeper correction is in store. sub 14.

  24. ARends

    Victor,
    I have news not to consider silver as much of a product in the solar industry. I have done much research into new technology! I promise you silver is not the future for solar panels there is two other technologies that companies are piling into. Very efficient and cheap that is only getting into main manufacturing. One is carbon the other work from the not just sun but all rays over and above light also.

    1. RTTPD

      ARends ——

      Bob Moriarty is all over the carbon battery technology……he writes about it fairly often.

      I am curious on who you like if you care to share?

      Thanks in advance.

  25. ARends

    Gary, Here is a good indication of how close the correlation with JPY/USD with gold, Pedestrian hammered on that previously. Why don’t you rather analyse it as a secondary guidance tool.
    https://invst.ly/49z6j
    Looking at the visual correlation of DXY and then USDJPY(if close to gold) as some guide to the correlation visually falls apart.

  26. Gary Post author

    Just as I predicted we are seeing classic ICL initial phase behavior. Every uptick is viewed as the bottom. Traders average in all the way down because they are in denial. The bullish bias has become so ingrained that they can’t see any way that gold can go lower and they convince themselves that if it does go lower it will be very mild and turn back up quickly.

    The bottom comes when all of these traders finally panic out in complete horror at the bottom because they underestimated how far down or how long price would decline.

    Watch for capitulation level volume in the mining stocks and triple leveraged funds before you even think about buying long.

    1. Gary Post author

      It won’t be long before silver takes out the December low just as I predicted it would. The miners will also take out the December low during this decline.

      I think gold will hold above the December low.

        1. Gary Post author

          The miners are probably going to test 17 before this is over. But that’s a long ways down still. It’s going to take 4-6 weeks to get there.

          1. Robert

            Yes but it looks like it will be in a slow grinding fashion, wish it would just crash that would really scare everyone

      1. Gary Post author

        The problem I have with EW is that they assume every move HAS to adhere to their expected wave count. If it doesn’t then they just squint harder and keep moving down to smaller and smaller time frames until they find what they are looking for.

        It’s similar to what some cycle analysts do when they call a “stealth low”. There is no such thing as a stealth cycle low. It just means the cycle is stretching but they want to make it fit their preconceived notion of when the bottom should occur.

  27. butch

    Pull up a weekly chart of gold you will see we are on the final c wave down of wave 4. We have abc, abc. abc, ab in Garys Gold triangle. I am watching this triangle very closely. This triangle is going to make me rich.

  28. Steffmeister

    Isn’t there a cycle TIC in Gold ? Since mid March there is a 55days (a Fib number) TIC and then another 55days TAC. The clock is ticking for the next up cycle to begin imo, but where do we start ?
    1215
    1200
    1193
    1165

    thats the question …

  29. Steffmeister

    sigh ….

    bailed out from my JNUG position, holy crap I’ve been waiting for this in almost 2days …

    I think we are going to touch 1200ish, when I will reenter

    Remember in 7-9days we will see som fireworks if my work still works.

    1. Bluebellkid

      ERX has been rejected by the 50 day AGAIN making it the 8th time since late January. Until it can break above resistance why does anyone want to own this??

        1. roadrunner

          i see about 5 times this year. two of those times it didn’t quite make the 50. However if you look at the XLE chart you will see 5-7 rejections at the 50ma in 2017 very clearly.

        2. Bluebellkid

          I use IBD Premium charts and cannot post a copy. IBD uses an actual 50 day moving average as in 50 trading days as opposed to whatever chart service you use which is 50 calendar days.

          1. Bluebellkid

            Another thing is you have to use weekly charts to see what is really going on – price/volume wise.

  30. dboz

    I was waiting for the OIL pullback. I had sold GUSH last week. Waiting for this pull back to load up for the next BIGGER run up. Doing OIL waiting for GOLD. Learning to be more patient and wait for the right time. OIL in a couple more days, maybe into next week. THEN time to get long. This is a great buy the dip. Still not sure it is not another big down move though. Just watching for now.

    1. Christian

      Agree, this is why I’m reloading on ERX this morning.

      Folks, OIL had a huge run up last week, so a pullback was to be expected — this is how Markets work. And this is your opportunity to reload.

        1. Christian

          I haven’t πŸ™‚ I bought a core position @24.50 back in June and held onto it. I re-loaded [Loaded up? Bought another tranche..? Take your pick] this morning with a ‘Limit Order’ @25.50 — my current average is 24.75

          I’m gonna sit back and watch what happens.. if ERX closes below the 10DMA then I’ll have to reconsider my position.

  31. Don

    The japanese Yen is looking like it wants to go up. That should be good for gold. The correlation has been very strong although there is no guarantee it will continue.

  32. Christian

    DUST is trying to fill the gap, as per GDX. I missed the breakout so will be reloading on this one as well this morning.

    I still have my core position sitting @27.50 πŸ™‚

    1. Don

      Right Christian. It was [email protected]. not ERX as I was thinking. My recall powers are not what they used to be. Getting older does that to a person.

  33. JJHarmen

    Call me stubborn but I am sticking with my GDX. I am betting GDX will not get anywhere near the December lows. I will average down only if GDX gets close to it’s May lows.

    1. Christian

      WOW is all I have to say about that..!

      But then again.. We need players on both sides of the Market πŸ™‚ And I’ll be more than happy to take your money.

  34. Christian

    Don β€” I have a core position in DUST @27.50 but would like to pick up some more this morning if given an opportunity.

    ERX, if you recall I got stopped out once, waited and bought a few shares @24.50 when OIL bottomed.

          1. cazabrujas

            I doubt that happens. we are very close to a big breaking point for GDX. if it breaks below 20.89 (that’s around 3% below the current price) we are going to see a major drop and big gains (if you are short).

          1. cazabrujas

            Sure, it’s very possible. I don’t mind as long as my DUST gets to the 50-60 range, I can happily wait 4 to 8 weeks. It would mean a huge amount of money for me.

  35. Goild

    Kruzoe,

    You really have guts.

    After a good drop the first bounce is strong. We have FOMC today.
    6K DUST shares….. MMM, too much risk for my taste.

    Thanks for posting it.

    Good luck!

  36. Bigdaddy

    WTF?? I am now losing money on every one of my positions. SOXS is going down like a stone and GDX and SLV are dead in the water. I must be patient. Looking at ERX .

    1. KHT

      Hang tight, you might get that [email protected] order filled today yet.

  37. Goild

    I am done for the morning with lunch money for three days.
    We will see how the 2:00 PM FOMC spikes play.

    Best of luck to Christian and Kruzoe.

  38. Bluebellkid

    Here are the 50 day rejections for ERX:
    Week of 1/20 50 DMA 39.08 High for the week 39.30
    Week of 1/27 50 DMA 39.51 High for the week 39.68
    Week of 4/7 50 DMA 33.15 High for the week 33.78
    Week of 4/15 50 DMA 32.56 High for the week 33.66
    Week of 5/19 50 DMA 29.90 High for the week 29.90
    Week of 5/26 50 DMA 29.42 High for the week 29.40
    Week of 6/16 50 DMA 27.91 High for the week 27.94
    Current Week of 7/3 50 DMA 26.56 High for the week so far 26.91

    1. Christian

      Blue β€” I bought ERX when OIL bottomed last week. It doesn’t get any better than that in terms of Risk vs Reward.

      If you wanna add to a position once XLE breaks the 50 DMA that’s absolutely fine but you should already have a core position in play πŸ™‚

      Oh and btw.. I love your commentary but I’m still waiting for you to post a trade in real time. When’s that gonna happen..?

      1. Bluebellkid

        IBD has “markets under pressure” which is one step away from a correction. I invest mostly in growth stocks and right now nothing looks good.

  39. Bluebellkid

    Here’s another reason not to be in ERX – average daily volume is 2,918,900 and today it has already traded 2.6 mm and is down over a dollar and a half – that is not bullish action. SOXL on the other hand is up over 4 dollars and volume is nearing the daily average with 2 1/2 hours to go in the trading day.

    1. Christian

      Again β€” my methodology is different than yours. I’m also not looking for a ‘day trade’ like most of the cowboys on this blog.

      OIL bottomed @42 and shot up to 47. A pullback was always in the cards. That being said.. if OIL closes below the 10 DMA then I’ll have to reassess. I’m nimble πŸ™‚

      1. Bluebellkid

        I’m not day trading either as evidenced by my being in cash for a month now. I do see on the daily chart on StockCharts where oil has reached resistance in the form of the 50 day.

  40. Don

    Tech stocks are up big today. Maybe investors are hoping the FED will stop or even reverse interest rate hikes? Not a chance of that happening, in my opinion. The Nasdaq rally should be shorted.

  41. victor

    time to go long NGas , entered at 2.838 see ya all at 4$.
    Got lucky with oil sold yesterday re-purchased today, se ya at 51+
    out of DUST for a day-two, maybe wrong here…

    1. JJHarmen

      Kruzoe, You bought 6000 shares of DUST this morning at 32.40 ($194400) and sold them for 32.90 ($197400). That is some serious money and far more than any professional would put on a single trade. What kind of play money are you using?

      1. KHT

        Whatever it is it`s condiments for GOILDs lunch money who can day in and day out trade 100s of 1k blocks, scalping $8/trade and never have to be concerned whatsoever about settlement dates or margin.

  42. Christian

    I’m gonna go ahead and be the first one to say it.. but I think that GDX is very likely to BOUNCE UP to the 50DMA over the next couple of days before rolling over.. which should give us another opportunity to pick up DUST shares around $31– give or take πŸ™‚

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/APMaVwew/

    Who’s betting against me ladies..?

          1. Robert

            I think this move up in miners today is suspect. Very low volume for such a big move up. Does not look like realy buying to me

  43. Nada

    @Robert I am not sure what you mean by low volume. The volume was higher than average in GDX and average in GDXJ. However in hindsight, we can see that it was sold into strength in GDX GDXJ and GLD via WSJ report.

    SOS listed in ranking of significance;
    GLD -90.36
    GDX -289.73
    GDXJ -153.21

    Regardless of what some have posted, large numbers on SOS BOW reports have shown consistent movements. It does not mean gold or miners can not be higher in the morning – However, I would lock in profits quickly if they are and there is not some geopolitical news.

    1. Robert

      Sorry Nada let me specify. The last three 30 minute candles. On the first 2 just after FOMC you see the 2 big candles. The volume on them were very low for such a big push up

    2. Robert

      And your SOS numbers is saying that this rally was prbly a fake move up to sell on strength. So it makes sense to me that the rally will fail very soon maybe by tomorrow?

  44. Goild

    JJ.

    I am posting again comments on Kruzoe trading I made a couple of day ago.
    He appears to be a very talented trader. Congratulations to him!
    And he must have a very fat account and the confidence that comes with success.

    Kruzoe shared and excellent example of how it is done. He 3X shorted on June 6th the miners, DUST, just when gold hit again the peak of April 18th, when gold was departing from the averages a great deal.
    And he made about $32K, as DUST went from about $25 to $30 not for lunch, but for a reasonable banquet.
    What does it take?
    The skill of patience for the setup to come.
    The skill of timing.
    The guts to put 8K shares, or about $200K on the table.
    The skill to sit quite.
    Kruzoe may have reasoned too that as the FED was expected soon to hike the rates, which would bring gold down, his chances were pretty good.
    He also asked for advice here about what to do, the trait of smart people, when he had the $32K, to leave them for the weekend or to sell them? He did the smart thing, only left 2K shares on the table.
    He says he is up about $56K in his recent trades.

  45. zkotpen

    Funny Christian should mention the 50 day SMA for miners.

    I thought of shorting GDX today, but geometry and probabilities did not look good.

    So around 2:30 p.m., I turned my attention to the intermediate cycle (50 day SMA).

    I have thought that GDX could form an intermediate degree triangle wave B for several months. Triangle or not, some form of long, drawn out consolidation was evident by late February.

    So while I’m not sure about shorting at the 50 day SMA test, that idea did cross my mind as something to look for as this bounce progresses. Specifically, to watch how miners behave if/when they get to that area, at intermediate degree, as well as at lower degrees. I have already posted my bulletproof strategy here to determine whether to put funds at risk; interested people have already read it, others have not. That underlies the decision making process of whether to take a trade or not. If that gives me a signal, I intend to proceed; if not, wait.

  46. Kruzoe

    JJ : The money I am risking is in fact about $15K, i.e. I bail out if I am down this much. I have $64K profit from my last 6 trades on Dust. So, I suppose you could argue that I’m playing with house money. I’m sure my luck will end soon. That’s why I’ll probably trade Dust 1-2 more times.

    1. Christian

      Food for thought: DUST will be highly profitable over the next 4-6 weeks as Gold works its way down into an ICL. And while everyone is either trying to scalp a bounce up in the Miners or trying to pick a bottom, MOMENTUM actually favours more downside, that’s where the easy money is.. so stick around. And you’ve just made a new friend, Lol! Goild, not me. I’m nobody’s friend πŸ™‚

  47. Bluebellkid

    From IBD’s The Big Picture tonight:
    After the market close on Monday, an influential industry group, the Semiconductor Industry Association, reported a 22.6% jump in global semiconductor sales for May vs. the year-ago period. In the current era of slow global economic growth, such an increase is stunning. No wonder, then, among the day’s top 10 industry groups, three came from the chips sector (semiconductor manufacturing, up 2.1%; semiconductor equipment, up 1.9%; and fabless chips, up 1.6%).

    1. Don

      Bluebellkid: Given those “stunning” results. it is odd that the semis (SOXX) have been moving down for the past 5 weeks and are now 10% of the highs. Like everything else in this crazy market, it doesn’t make sense.

  48. WYSIWYGN

    gold miners bullish percent index (BPGDM) is at 21 now. Is this the sentiment meter one should follow until under 10 before loading the truck ?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m guessing a bear flag in gold with one more drop to break the May low and then we get the DCL. But since the dollar hasn’t produced an intermediate rally yet there may still be one more daily cycle to go before gold completes it’s final ICL.

  49. Goild

    Good morning,

    Gold is at critical and substantial support and I see it going up today.
    Once it breaks support at $1220 there is nothing to hold it. Only vacuum.

    It may be a good day to short the financials, who is up to go long on FAZ?

  50. butch

    I have no positions, I have no trades. I am waiting for Gold triangle to complete wave D and am also waiting for the biotech correction to complete. Patience is 80% of trading.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would stay patient for another day or two. Silver will probably break the December lows before the DCL forms. Miners will likely break the May lows and gold should deliver a failed daily cycle by breaking the May low as well.

      Then I would be careful as gold will probably still have one more left translated cycle before the final ICL.

          1. Robert

            If you take off your DUST trade you risk missing out if it continues down but I guess better safe than sorry

          2. Gary Post author

            The big money is always to the upside. If we can make a little on DUST that would be great but it’s not necessary and I won’t push it too far and risk getting caught at the ICL bottom.

            If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a thousand times. Making money on the short side is tough. Markets go down differently than they go up.

          3. Robert

            Yes it certainly is hard on the downside. But if your right and we get 1 more LT cycle the money should be easier because thats when the miners will crash

      1. JJHarmen

        Are the miners still on track to break the December lows, as was predicted by Gary? I presume that would mean GDX will get down into the $18 area.

        1. Christian

          Actually, I’m the one that first mentioned that GDX would likely drop to major support @17 and I’m still convinced that it will, because that’s what the Miners do. At that point everyone will be too scared to buy πŸ™‚

    1. Gary Post author

      Stocks are just way overdue for an intermediate degree correction that’s all.

      Once it has run its course, and assuming the PPT doesn’t stop it prematurely, then we still have much further to go in this bull. 10,000 Nasdaq will be a piece of cake.

      1. Nada

        Gary. what did you do with our Mustang Sally? The retirement home might have put her under lock and key, but I have a feeling she will ride again.

        1. mustang sally

          Hi ho Nada. Just relaxing , riding dusty till around July 17, I see gary is going to be selling dusty in the next few days. He will get buggered by all his icl and hcl.

          Back in the saddle

          Mustang Sally

          1. Nada

            Welcome back Mustang Sally! I love the banter between you and BD, but I think BD is trying to ignore.

    1. Christian

      Well, for one.. they don’t always move in lock-step so I’m willing to give it some wiggle room. Both OIL and energy stocks are trading above their 10DMA which gives me a bit of confidence.. that being said, if OIL can’t convincingly break through the 50DMA then I’ll have to reconsider my position in ERX; I’m not a sucker for punishment.

    1. Christian

      Haha The thing is.. it actually IS Pedestrian!

      Gary mentioned the other day that it was the same ‘ip’ address.. and if so, that must be one lonely person.

      1. mustang sally

        Christian my friend: The only way we have the same ip is Pedestrian is outside the old folks home using my internet, and also Pedestrian could not trade his way out of bag. Lets just wait for the results of our online betting contest.

        Mustang Sally

  51. Christian

    DUST looking more and more like a consolidation before one more pop. I agree with Gary.. We should see GDX drop below the May low which could potentially push DUST all the way back up to 37/38 πŸ™‚ That’s always been my target.

  52. Goild

    Good morning,

    Hope you guys are doing well.
    With TIP and FXY down, GOLD probably will end lower today.

    As usual I played long the falling JNUG, to lose, and recover on the bounce. No so well played.
    Though I got my lunch money already. Yesterday I loaded 5K USO shares, to sell 4K today and make more
    lunch money.

    Let gold and oil sink.

  53. Bigdaddy

    By putting a buy order in for SLV at 15 bucks, i have put a floor in for the price of silver. They are not going to allow me to get in cheap.

    1. Gary Post author

      Why do you insist on fighting with a manipulated market? Do you honestly think the FED is going to run out of money?

      The only sane strategy is to buy dips. Selling short is a fool’s game because you never know when an intervention will turn the market on a dime.

      1. Don

        What would the motivation be for the FED to prop up the markets anymore? Are Yellen and Trump best buddies? I don’t think they give a rat’s ass about the market if it means supporting Trump. Other central banks are the culprit when it comes to pushing up American stock prices. For example, the Swiss central bank has huge stake in Apple, all paid for with ‘printed ‘ money.

        In case anyone missed it, here is a link to a very interesting article concerning central banks and their quest to take over the world’s biggest corporations with printed money. http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/central-banks-buying-stocks/

  54. Bigdaddy

    Sometimes this market just pisses me off. Everything I hold is going down. My dog could do better. At least he would score 50% correct. Right?

  55. Bigdaddy

    For those that are keeping track, I have 1000 SLV, 1000 GDX and 500 SOXS and losing on every one but confidence is high for silver. Maybe I will sell GDX and put the money into SLV. Stay tuned for direction.

  56. Bigdaddy

    It’s lunch time and I haven’t made any lunch money. That’s okay cause then I won’t end up to be a fat bastard like Goild. Soup and crackers today. See you all later.

    1. Nada

      lol BD.. I can envision you hiding from the wife in your shed, eating your soup and crackers while Goild is firing up a cigar after finishing his four course meal.

  57. desertsun999

    I watched a utube video the other day on the Chicago July 4 shootings. The guy doing the video was calling it Chiraq. Man, this is unreal. Over a hundred shootings over the 4th in one major American city. Just imagine what this country would be like if we start to have a nationwide economic collapse. The daily casualties will be like living in a war zone.

      1. desertsun999

        A lot of is just senseless shootings. For example, a guy mowing his lawn got shot for nothing other than trying to mow his lawn. Small children are getting shot. People have just lost their fricking minds. Its following the same path as Detroit. Illinois main problem is the pensions that were promised to people that they simply cannot afford to pay. They increased the state tax by 32% so that they can continue paying these mammoth pensions. I worked for Az. state government and took a lump sum pension instead of a check. The pensions nationwide have unfunded liabilities that you wouldn’t believe. Better a bird in the hand than two in the bush

        1. JJHarmen

          Desertsun., The people doing all the shooting don’t have pensions to worry about nor do they care what the tax rate is. They are animals that were raised without fathers and think life is all about drugs, violence, and screwing. It’s that simple.

  58. Don

    The VIX has been on a steady climb since June 26, up over 7% today to 11.93. That doesn’t mean the market is going to take a big hit in the next few days but it is a warning that investors are getting nervous. Perhaps it has something to do with the North Korean situation. Just speculating.

    1. Nada

      Wait for the update to the $SKEW today – usually about an hour after close and see if there was any tail risk put on. At the moment, there is “no fear” in the market.

  59. Don

    What would the motivation be for the FED to prop up the markets anymore? Are Yellen and Trump best buddies? I don’t think they give a rat’s ass about the market if it means supporting Trump. Other central banks are the culprit when it comes to pushing up American stock prices. For example, the Swiss central bank has huge stake in Apple, all paid for with β€˜printed β€˜ money.

    Here is the link to a very interesting article concerning central banks and their quest to take over the world’s biggest corporations with printed money.
    http://thegreatrecession.info/blog/central-banks-buying-stocks/

    1. Gary Post author

      That one is easy. You can’t have a recession as long as the stock market stays propped up. Politicians lose their jobs during recessions. So even though no one likes Trump no one is going to risk a recession to get rid of him.

  60. galaxy

    Gary you said you were using sentimentrader for watching golds sentiment. What kind of gold optix values are you expecting in next nearterm ICL? In last december the value was 33 and in june low it was 36. You mentioned sometime ago that one reason why the gold haven’t reached the ICL was that it has to reach the extreme pessimism. I think atleast according sentimentrader the may low was pretty damn close if you compare it to december low, if it is considered extreme pessimism. Last time it reached the excessive pessimism (under 20 optix value in sentimentrader) was in dec 2015.

    1. Gary Post author

      To begin with the May low could not be an ICL as it didn’t complete a failed daily cycle. The last time I checked intermediate degree sentiment in gold was pretty much dead neutral at 50% bulls. Short-term sentiment however can swing violently between excessive bullishness and excessive bearishness. But for an intermediate degree bottom I look at intermediate degree sentiment which isn’t bearish yet.

      If I had to guess I’d say we’re probably are going to require one more daily cycle before gold goes down to tag that lower triangle trendline I’ve been watching for months and months.

      1. galaxy

        Thanks. Sorry for noob questions but where can I find intermediate degree sentiment reading? Does sentimentrader somehow show it or are you using RSI indicators (14?)? What gold optix represent, now it is 44.

          1. galaxy

            I have 1 month trial, Do I actually have to buy a subscription. I can see charts for gold optix, gold seasonality and gold hedgers positions.

  61. JJHarmen

    On the hourly charts, GDX looks like it is building a base for a lift off. That could all go to hell though during the last hour of trading. That seems to be when the miners get hit if they are going to fail.

    1. primetime

      The Chicago problem is simple…I am surprised nobody else commented on it.

      It has had democratic mayors since 1931.

      Look at most American cities run by liberals for decades and they all have crime problems.

      Nothing new, and it will not change.

      1. JJHarmen

        The Democrats need the votes in order to stay in power so they promise free stuff to those who thinks society owes them something and don’t want to work. It would all change if only those who pay taxes were allowed to vote. The leeches would not have a say and why should they?

    1. Nada

      Not directed at you AT, but a lot of permabulls are using NK as their “great hope” for gold. However, there is no military option for NK. The population of Seoul is +25 million. No matter what type of precision the US was capable of delivering, would prevent Kim from raining down conventional artillery. Both Japan and SK would be decimated in this exchange. It does not mean you can not have an escalation that would cause gold to pop, but imo war is never going to happen.

      1. AT

        Good point Nada, but I am not a permabull, I’ll trade any way the money can be made.
        I know war is out of the question, but small escalations or rhetoric can help lift Gold a bit. Plus Gold may be due for a bit of reversal after the big move down since beginning of June.

        1. Nada

          Gold has had no reaction to the dollar, but the yen has stayed weaker during its drop. I think the real question is, do we have another daily cycle in front of us before a final ICL? The mixed signals from gold and the dollar make it difficult to tell. GL in your trades AT, I think we should get some 10-20point move up, but it could as easily turn South.

  62. Bigdaddy

    Back from lunch and not much as changed. GDX is exactly where it was two hours ago, no fill on SLV and the one bright spot is SOSX which reversed and is now moving up.

  63. Christian

    OIL is still looking a little wobbly.

    ERX — NEVER EVER SELL IN A PANIC. I’m gonna wait for price to settle and then I’ll double down and exit on the bounce up to break even.

      1. Christian

        For you maybe. But there is ALWAYS a bounce out of oversold conditions. You just have to time it right and that’s where most people end up shitting the bed πŸ™‚

        Keep in mind — OIL is still trading above its 10DMA. Energy stocks could be setting up an undercut low which of course will catch everyone by surprise.. if anything, the level of pessimism on this blog pretty much says it all.

        1. KHT

          The pessimism isnt like that on every blog/site though. take a look at the gold and silver.

          https://www.ig.com/uk/ig-commodities/gold

          i got out of my DSLV today at 30.15. 3.18 ITM Probly to early and really think there is more downside and wanted to hold but sentiment is way to long and i have that bull trap/short squeeze thing hanging over my head. Feels good to be in cash with some nice gains right now.

        2. HomerJ

          Is there really ALWAYS a bounce? Ask that to holders of TVIX and TZA that got in, then “doubled down”, then “quadrupled down” and all that jazz.

    1. mustang sally

      Just could not resist , board as hell at the home, how many games of checkers can you play. That a boy Kruzoe that will work out fine for you.

      Riding the dusty into the sunset

      Mustang Sally

    2. Nada

      Afternoon Kruzoe. Curious about your logic on this trade. With NFP on deck tomorrow, is this trade based on an expected beat? I know ADP does little to inform us about NFP, but with a 3x ETF and 3k shares, it seems you have much confidence. Gold is flagging on the daily, so I didn’t know if this was a technical trade or news. Best of luck.

      1. mustang sally

        Nada, he is riding the dusty, when everyone is chicken big profits are made, their has been 2 breakout gaps what more could one ask for this. Forget Gary this is a bull and dusty is the one to ride.

        Riding the bucking bronco

        Mustang Sally

        1. Nada

          I understand Mustang Sally. It just seems we are in the middle and not too clear on direction short term. But this Kruzoe fellow is going balls deep in DUST, so he must have it figured out πŸ™‚ Good luck to everyone tomorrow during NFP!

  64. primetime

    Christine,

    ERX entry at $25.50…..I expected better than that from you.

    And yesterday, your were the “first to call it GDX is very likely to BOUNCE UP to the 50DMA over the next couple of days”.

    Not only were you the first, but the dumbest.

    1. Christian

      Actually my current average in ERX is 24.75 dumb shit and as far as GDX.. I don’t have a crystal ball and I’m not always gonna get it right. That’s why I’m always telling people to be NIMBLE and why I picked up a few more shares of DUST just before the close.

      And why are you still here with your asinine bs? Are you seriously that lonely in life?? You and Pedestrian should hold hands and hang out more πŸ™‚

      Now go away.

      1. primetime

        Don’t play your self-righteous crystal ball card on me as your out for being wrong you little weasel.

        Maybe you should learn the word humility and apply it in life…otherwise change your name to egotistical prick!

        1. Christian

          What in the world are you going on about??! Lol! Seriously dude.. the loneliness is killing you; I get it.

          **GARY — CAN WE PLEASE GET RID OF THIS ASSWIPE?? He brings nothing of value.

          1. primetime

            You sound like a little crybaby. Go cry to Gary! Mommy, Daddy, this primetime guy is picking on me. I’m telling on you primetime!

            Give me a break you little girl!

            Get Rid of me, you think I really care?

            And what value do you bring? In your peanut brain your saving the investing world, but you act like a know it all clown.

  65. ocram

    Very very BAD for miners !!!!!
    tahoe -30%
    first majestic under $10
    I don’t see as Gary can really think that we are in a new gold/silver stock bull market,prices are returning at the shitty levels of the start of the so called “baby bull”, when they were EXTREMELY depressed!
    This is NOT a bull market behaviour!

    1. Gary Post author

      Is gold anywhere near the 2015 lows? Its been a year and a half and no new lows.

      As I keep repeating the metals are in a basing pattern. Once its finished this will power a huge move higher. But first it has to wear everyone out.

      1. ocram

        Gary,
        I appreciate your work but the parabolic rise into 2011 was very similar to the parabolic rise into 1980 where a LONG bear market followed.
        (1980 to 2001)
        (2011 to 2032? )
        My only hope is that gold/silver stocks will experience a bull market of their own as happened in the 90’s when gold barely moved whereas miners had probably the greatest bull of their history.
        Probably we will have a bull market into 2018 but it will end about at 1350/1500 level before the bear will resume,let’s hope miners will make huge profits during this period.

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      Hey Gary. I’m a fellow investor and rock climber in Denver. Shoot me a text at 518.569.6909. let’s get a beer and talks crags and coins.

    2. dboz

      Gary, living in a mountain resort town with a college with plenty of rich kids dropping coin is not a very good representation of the overall American economy.

      Car sales are in the toilet. I am not going to make the case for a recession, but by the time we are officially in one, it is already 6 months deep.

      Just an FYI, employment is always the highest (most help wanted signs) right before a recession. Labor costs go higher to get workers which hurts profits and eventually creates money flow slow downs which sets up the same workers eventually getting laid off at some point down the line.

  66. Christian

    GARY — I don’t care that you’re too busy climbing boulders. You need to do a better job of getting rid of all the ASSWIPES on this blog who bring absolutely nothing of value my friend!

    Folks.. Nothing wrong with a bit of banter which I enjoy more than most but seriously.. if you’re lonely, bored, have unresolved emotional issues bubbling beneath the surface then TAKE IT SOMEWHERE ELSE and stop shitting on others every chance you get!!

    THANK YOU πŸ™‚

  67. mustang sally

    Oki doki: Now my rant since today seems good and volatile. This mess we are in is not going down pretty, the usd is the bull and will cave everything in site, dirty money must be wiped out. The shit is already hit the fan and if you can’t smell it now , Holy crap

    The only bull around now is dusty

    Ridem cowgirl

    Mustang Sally

    Rockin at the old folks home

  68. primetime

    Christine,

    1) Do not patronize me with your good luck.
    2) If you can’t beat em, delete em. Guess I win.
    3) Not lonely, bored, and no emotional issues. But I am blessed with a wonderful wife, children, business and career that all keep me very busy and humble.
    4) You always place labels on people on this blog you don’t even know. Labels I am sure describe your inadequacies. You can really dish it out, but you can’t take it.
    4) I thought this was Gary’s site, not Christine’s?
    5) Savage can feel free to ban me, I do not need to post on here to feel relevant in life as you do. Actually this is the only blog I have done in my life.
    6) You need to lighten up about this blog, it is not worth your aggravation. You know your good even if everyone else does not. Keep it up punk.

    1. Christian

      And again — offering nothing of value but shitting on others because he has nothing else better to do with his time. People like you shouldn’t have kids.. We already have to many A**holes on this precious planet of ours.

      Stop LASHING OUT at others thx πŸ™‚

  69. Gary Post author

    I don’t know why you guys are fussing over the last few Pennies of a daily cycle low in Gold when we’re about to get a once or twice a year opportunity in the stock market next week.

    1. Robert

      It could be more than a few pennies if dust goes up 10%! I guess stocks will go up the same time as gold then since your saying it is near a DCL

  70. Ed

    Ok, you two, if you can answer the difference between stagflation and deflation, and how each affects gold price. I will let you stay on the blog.😎

  71. Goild

    Tomorrow is Friday and pay day.
    PPT and pay day will lift SM.
    Gold is unlikely to break the substantial support it has.
    Tomorrow will be a good day for gold.
    I will wake up with automatic lunch money on my 1K JNUG shares, I hope.
    Have a nice evening guys and let us put our minds to work on making money.

  72. Kruzoe

    Nada,
    Just playing the odds. I try not to over-analyze. I am in at average of 33.15 for the 5K shares. This trade should be my last one on Dust. Am I nervous? You bet! I do have a stop at 32.25

    1. Steffmeister

      No that is not whats going on, not a fan of that chart!

      The case for Gold is much more positive imo. Sadly not so positive for the West in General and the USA in particular.

  73. Robert

    Gary why couldn’t June 21 not have been a DCL? Also I still dont know why you believe gold will have a DCL soon and bounce back up to fleece shorts. Im thinking we get a Nov 2016 drop straight down into the ICL

  74. Ed

    In the end, it still is demand and supply. I know SILVER being a part industrial metal, it will so same direction as stock market but the price has been so depressed, is there more room for downside? For any prolonged time period.
    I am so glad I am out of any kind leverage stuffs well before last week.

  75. dboz

    This is really starting to get fishy now. Two fat finger issues in two weeks on both gold and silver. Trying to completely spook the participants now? Be fearful if using stops etc.? This should really get things bearish.

  76. redbaron9

    cyclical bull market in the dollar is over, and a breakdown below long-term support will rejuvenate the move higher in gold – as well as the next leg lower in real yields.

    1. ARends

      Will we still see a drop in Junior miners if the overlap of gold still show staying once again keeping resistance level. I do not want to call it a bottom from any other indicator except sentiment which is a bit of concern being short in miners and thinking sentiment being at 15%. GDX seems to have caught up with GOLD where GDXJ seems to lack still. Where is your sentiment reading? What is lowest sentiment you have seen?
      https://invst.ly/4au80

      1. Gary Post author

        Bullish percent isn’t a sentiment indicator. It’s an oversold/overbought indicator.

        Short term sentiment on GLD is 30% bulls.
        Intermediate sentiment on gold is 45% bulls.

        We may see a bounce out of a DCL and have to work through another complete daily cycle before the final ICL.

  77. ARends

    Gary and those who believe they have insight,
    hope you can give me some opinion:
    Considering the silver correlation to Gold and yesterday drop Dclose: what do you think is the outlook if silver is now at December low and have broken the bottom trend-line confirming a bear from its triangle break https://invst.ly/4auj9. It also seem to be close closer correlation to miners rather than gold.

    Considering all these instruments show rather longer-term bear outlook now. Could all this be such an elaborate CleverM fleece in so many indicators and contrary that Gold can still be bullish. I believe that Gold is bullish, however technical s of all other PM seem overwhelming. The fact that Gold and others manipulated actually diminish any technical assessment or that that GOLD will de-link from silver medium term. The fact that you foresee miners also dropping past december lows. The technical outlook for the Silver and Miners could be destroyed?

    There must me implications with this diversification in a technical outlook and have long term? implications.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been expecting miners and silver to take out their December lows. Gold has not. It is still in a bull market, and still stuck in a basing pattern. The longer the base takes the bigger the rally once the breakout occurs.

      If we can stretch this out another daily cycle until everyone is completely convinced the metals are done then we will set up a monster rally. Maybe even one big enough to rival the baby bull.

  78. dboz

    What fleecing? They have already been fleeced. The next move for miners will be the need to issue more shares to find investors in order to remain solvent. If the downward push continues there is a very distinct possibility of creating a physical shortage as prices can be suppressed below cost to mine. There is not much blood left in miners. They have been bled dry for over 12 months. Sure they can continue to push prices to the point of miner economic ruin. At that point there is no way to control price, as a physical panic frenzy may occur.

      1. dboz

        Oh, I know it can go lower, much much lower. Just saying, at some point the companies will be going bankrupt and closing. You can only dilute your shares for so long until there are no more suckers to give you money.

  79. mustang sally

    Good day all. OH OH not another break out gap, thats 4 to me that is a sign of a bull. If this holds the bugs are trapped and will propel good ole dusty

    Ride em dusty

    Mustang Sally

      1. cazabrujas

        No, guys, the party has just started. this breakdown in GDX is important, destroyed the little bit of support that it had made in the last 3 days. next stop is 20.89. if that one breaks, then it’s bye bye for miners until 17.

        1. Christian

          Not quite true — we’re getting close to a DCL, which means we’ll get a bounce up first that could last a couple of weeks and then the downtrend will resume.

          1. cazabrujas

            Well, it could bounce when it gets to 20.89 for a few days, but that’s still about 7% away, which is 21% in DUST terms. and I am sure as hell not going to miss those juicy profits.

          2. cazabrujas

            Anyways, I think there might not be another DCL, and we are starting the famous “bloodbath phase”. I guess we’ll see soon. even if this isn’t it. the price does not bounce up immediately, we usually have a day or two of wiggling before it bounces.

          3. Nada

            @Christian

            You bring up an interesting point. So we have confirmation today of a failed daily cycle in gold – agreed?

            With that said, we have our confirmation of a drop into an ICL. The question is, would this not be a drop into the final ICL vs having another daily cycle before ICL? My understanding is that you need 1 failed daily cycle for an ICL, and since we have that today, what puts anther daily cycle on the table. Just to be clear, I am asking because I am a bit confused on this topic.

  80. Christian

    OIL broke through the 10 DMA and that’s my cue πŸ™‚ ERX looks over-extended and I’m gonna exit on an intra-day bounce UP. I should be able to break even.

  81. dboz

    I think this will pretty much wipe any bullish sentiment off the table for the time being. What a bloodbath. No way to think we are in anything resembling a bull market. This is a bear market rally about to implode into full on bear market again. Zero case to be made for being bullish.

  82. Christian

    Nada — ALL TRUE but the dollar has yet to produce a convincing rally and that’s what’s giving me pause. I think Gary also mentioned the possibility of another DC and I think he might be onto something.

    Let’s see what happens πŸ™‚

  83. mustang sally

    Why all the selling in dust, you are going to miss the best gains, this is the mark of a bull market.

    Ride em dusty

    Mustang Sally
    Rockin in the home

    1. roadrunner

      apparently OI in gold was up 11k contracts yesterday…that is huge for one day and usually requires a beat down, and voila..we got it today. OI is still well under 500k so i doubt we will get too much lower without a bounce first. and too the Dusties….enjoy the ride.

    1. roadrunner

      we have been down mostly since june 25. almost $60. We have met the conditions for an ICL, so this could be it and we head higher next week. we will find out next week get your shopping lists ready.

  84. Goild

    Congratulations to Kruzoe for another great trade!!!

    Here as usual going long on JNUG to lose 2 times about $3K, and, and to recover and make already +$554 for lunch. All green πŸ™‚

    On the JNUG 1K shares I left on the table, They were in another account. Near the bottom I loaded 8K JNUG shares, to recover and made about $400 there.
    Now I am with 8K USO shares bought at the bargain price of $9.1.
    Good trading to all.

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, it doesn’t matter what JNUG does, you always manage to make money before lunch. NOBODY can be that skilled at day trading. I call bullshit.

    1. roadrunner

      if we break the Dec’15 low, then we still have a bear market. There is not enough fuel right now for that to happen. Unless of course OI just completely collapses to levels we haven’t see in years and years. Always possible, but not likely on this drop. this is still just an ICL. the same ICL Gary has been warning about for a couple months. this is actually normal behavior for gold during an IC drop. if you are playing the metals/miners a buying opportunity might be here now or early next week.

    1. cazabrujas

      Too early, bro. better to risk not making some money than risk losing a bunch. when it’s time to actually put your money to the long side, you’ll know for sure. this is not the time.

      1. cazabrujas

        I am not expecting a bounce right now. I think we still have, at the very least, one more trading day of downside movement. There are 2 possible scenarios, IMO: 1) we go straight down on a bloodbath phase, everyone gets scared and miners break the december low. that should give us fuel for a major rally; or 2) we stall around support (GDX at 20.89) fora couple of days, then a small bounce (6 – 10 %) and then we go down hard to the ICL, and then we get the major rally.

      2. Steffmeister

        Asking me? We are in a complex B waiting for a C up, 1462 to repeat wave A, but 1300 a double top is also possible before we turn down to set the final low at sub 1000.

  85. Steffmeister

    We will find out next week, the weekly in Gold is not bearish enough … so you are probably right.

    However I must follow my own work, that is how I will survive in this world.

  86. Goild

    Megamind,

    I agree OIL may go still down. If it hits the previous bottom, I will load 5k more USO shares.
    I went to the gas station to pay about $2 the gallon. This cheap will not last.
    Eventually I am set to make money on USO.

  87. RetireYoung

    Boom boom! Coming up on the toughest questions.. when to sell. Looking at the gap fill on GDXJ ($30.32) to maybe sell a portion of JDST; assuming it gets there but nothing is guaranteed. Getting greedy has been my curse. Or maybe there is a bounce at around $30.89 GDXJ?

  88. Goild

    jj,

    I am sorry but it is not BS, For your delight below are today’s trades.
    While it is stupid to catch the falling knife, I am happy to make money on it.

    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2447 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 12:34:33 PM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.202 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 12:33:21 PM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1443 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 11:58:26 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0848 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:51:44 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0943 Market Sell 4000 at Market Day 11:51:03 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9843 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 11:47:47 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9943 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 11:46:24 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9157 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:44:32 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.94 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:42:47 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9863 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:41:28 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.111 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 11:38:11 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0637 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:37:27 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.113 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:34:14 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1352 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:32:02 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1743 Market Sell 5000 at Market Day 11:31:11 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0742 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 11:21:49 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0212 Market Sell 6000 at Market Day 11:17:34 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0042 Market Sell 8000 at Market Day 11:17:10 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.87 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:10:05 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.8858 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:09:58 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9358 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:06:45 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9272 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:06:41 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9567 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:02:37 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.9558 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:02:21 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0559 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:01:43 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.0659 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 11:01:31 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1652 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:00:10 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.20 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:59:39 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2552 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:58:46 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.375 Market Sell 3000 at Market Day 10:48:52 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.30 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:47:00 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3526 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 10:44:52 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3858 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 10:43:46 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.4064 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 10:42:38 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.384 Market Sell 4000 at Market Day 10:42:04 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3415 Market Sell 6000 at Market Day 10:40:17 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2279 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:38:47 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.20 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:36:39 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2351 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:34:11 AM 07/07/2017
    USO FILLED AT $9.0268 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:26:44 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.215 Market Buy 2000 at Market Day 10:25:49 AM 07/07/2017
    USO FILLED AT $9.025 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:25:17 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3039 Market Sell 6000 at Market Day 10:23:20 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2839 Market Sell 9000 at Market Day 10:22:34 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1297 Market Buy 3000 at Market Day 10:19:47 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1752 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:18:25 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1963 Market Buy 5000 at Market Day 10:17:51 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.14 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:17:29 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.1652 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:17:06 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2052 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:16:49 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.2657 Market Buy 5000 at Market Day 10:16:07 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3039 Market Sell 5000 at Market Day 10:15:47 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3658 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:13:27 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.31 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:11:20 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.3394 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:10:56 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.4352 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:10:04 AM 07/07/2017
    USO FILLED AT $9.10 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:08:10 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.4462 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:07:30 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.5044 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 10:06:50 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.57 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:02:25 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.5848 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 10:01:42 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.5439 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 10:01:12 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.54 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:56:59 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.5154 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:56:05 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.5454 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:47:37 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.65 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:46:18 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.6454 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:45:26 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.6544 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 09:44:44 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.5854 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:44:24 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.685 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:43:10 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.6572 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:42:42 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.6595 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:42:02 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.7246 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:39:18 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.6762 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:38:31 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.67 Market Sell 2000 at Market Day 09:38:01 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.61 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:37:11 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.7054 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:36:59 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.87 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:35:59 AM 07/07/2017
    USO FILLED AT $9.1354 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:34:29 AM 07/07/2017
    USO FILLED AT $9.13 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:34:07 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.9311 Market Sell 500 at Market Day 09:32:40 AM 07/07/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $15.88 Limit at $15.90 Buy 500 Limit at $15.90 4:00 PM 09:14:16 AM 07/07/2017

    1. Kruzoe

      Goild: Way to go! Congratulations on your trades. Too risky for my taste πŸ™‚ I’ll stick to my specialty, Dust – 7 straight winning trades, up about $75K.

    2. JJHarmen

      Goild, according to your trading summary, almost immediately after you buy, the market goes your way allowing you to scalp a few pennies. I don’t care how lucky you are, that is just not possible.
      You can make up all the trading summaries you want, I ain’t buying it.

    1. mustang sally

      OK, just plain crazy for me. In Gary’s online gambling contest I am up 22,000 on 100,000, since June 28 with just one trade,
      And am looking for more

      Rockin in the home

      Mustang Sally

        1. mustang sally

          Thank you my friend: As Gary always says, just like I predicted it was the bottom. And yes I wlll trade probably 5 times switching in and out of nugt/dust for the 1.5 years.

          Mustang Sally

  89. bluelagoon

    I mentioned before and it’s happened once again this year….buying TQQQ 1st of July yields a guaranteed profit since 2010…this year it was 3rd of July (1st trading day of the month) at $95 close….

    The question now is does it get past $100 (daily 30/50) or does it reverse back down there.

    1. Christian

      Speaking of which.. DUST is currently consolidating in a triangle and I’m gonna go ahead and grab a few more shares πŸ™‚ I need some lunch money.

      1. Christian

        Bluelagoon — Yes quite possibly but I’ll exit when I start seeing signs of weakness and right now momentum still favours more upside in DUST.

  90. Christian

    ERX Update — My BREAKEVEN is @24. ERX is currently trading @23.75. I have a feeling I’m gonna pick up some Brunch money on this one as well.

    Where’s HOMERJ..?

  91. Don

    Tech stocks are putting on a big show today as are the semis. The big five are all up well over 1%. The central banks just can’t get enough. Do they ever sell?

  92. mags

    On this Blog, on Feb 8th, the author posted the following, about being long PMs, and the PMs have been in a downtrend since 2/8. Is this how contrarian sentiment works?

    Feb 8th CHART OF THE DAY – GETTING SCHOOLED BY THE BULL
    Just like I predicted many many people are getting schooled. In a bull market all long trades will ultimately get rescued no matter how badly timed the entry.

      1. Don

        Mags may be “cherry picking”, but the words were NOT out of context. Gary said those exact words more than once and he is right, but only if gold is still in a bull market.

        1. KHT

          “but only if gold is still in a bull market.”

          The “still in”part of that has been answered in Sept of 2011. Since then the downtrend line has been firmly intact, challenged a few times but firmly intact.

          Gold is still in a very stubborn bear market. There is a ray of hope on a monthly basis that gold may find a bounce at 1160-1169 to make a run at the down trend, I believe if that area is violated though, 949, optimistically can be in play.

          I`m sure this may be construed as the bearish bias that is necessary to produce a bull but I firmly believe we are nowhere near bearish enough, no where near!! there may be a relief rally but I think the next will be sharp and brief and if it fails to break out to the top a lot of bulls will be caught and flamed.

          Just to be clear, I am not a perma bear as i hold actual bullion but will not be buying the dip, physical anyway, this time around. the point being, I WANT a gold bull.

          If anyone cares or even bothered to read this, thank you. If not, it is just my 2 cents and served my purpose to put my thoughts out.

          BTW, yes, i have egg all over my face selling my DSLVs yesterday. No matter, i had a nice short run the last few weeks. Mission accomplished and i truly do hope the true gold bull will break out this year. Not so sure though.

  93. Don

    There have been more new lows made today than new highs plus the number of stocks over their respective 200 MA is declining. This SM rally may not go too far.

  94. Steffmeister

    More esoteric drivel, number 9 means completion, The 9th on SUNday is a Full Moon and Moonday, Monday is the 10th. Esoteric meaning of 10 is (a quick google search):

    The number ten signifies the return to centre whereby a new cycle of life begins. In the Bible, the ten is associated with law and judgement – symbolised by the Ten Commandments which give man guidance to rights and wrongs.

    A NEW CYCLE BEGINS haha I just love this stuff πŸ™‚ however I guess centralbanks is going to try their best to break cycles and fractals, trying to invert them.

    I’ve got a second ace up my sleeve which is the magic fractal. Next week is key imo.

  95. Bigdaddy

    I am going to take a few days off and put some serious thought into my strategy which is clearly not working for me or any of my followers. Before i forget, today’s dunce hat goes to jjharmen who cast doubt about the fantastic success of one of our best traders., that being Goild. JJ is just jealous , obviously.
    Sorry guys, Bigdaddy is signing off for a while so you are on your own.

  96. mustang sally

    Just passing through all my favorite shit for brains websites, the boys over at golden tent( sounds like my old folks home) over there they dribble with sticks calling them trend lines . Who in the right mind would follow a subscription pumper named Fully, he as gone broke so many times and ridden stocks up and down, and he just rode another one Spocks rocks as he touts as master trader of rocks. Then there is Dan the man who sniveld with the master of smoke none other than Jimmy. now Dan feels so bad for all the people who got conned by him and Jimmy, that he offers to help them out by offering them a subscription. Then their is Jeff Kern with his numbers will bamboozle you, and not last our e wavers who claim life is all determined by waves. Who needs the circus when they are all here on the famous interweb. Like today they are all calling the bottom, which bottom?

    Rant for Friday

    Rocking the dust

    Mustang Sally,
    no smoke just profits

    1. cazabrujas

      It sounds to me like we are in the “disbelief” where everyone is calling the bottom unsuccessfully over and over. I have a feeling that we’ll transition to the “all out panic” phase soon, where everybody will be calling for sub-1000 gold, that’s when we need to be ready to go long.

  97. Gary Post author

    I can’t remember whether it was Primetime or JJHarmen but clearly gold did exactly what I said it would do so which ever one it was you owe me a subscription purchase.

    1. Christian

      Speaking of Primetime — Gary let’s get rid of the trash once and for all..!

      There are too many TROLLS on this blog that offer nothing of value and who are very quick to crap on others at every turn.

      Why are you sitting on your hands?

      1. primetime

        Gary,

        As we have discussed I am on a long term investing horizon and not a day, weekly or monthly trader. Therefore, I will wait for your call regarding the gold bull market. If it comes to fruition, I will make real good money, and that is when I will do the subscription. I have also followed your energy advice and it is underwater. However, I have no problem waiting it out to turn. If the energy trade works out I will make real good money and that is when I will again get a subscription. My time horizon is for both is years.

        In regards to trolling, you dont see me on here crying because you have been wrong to date. I am hopeful and think it will still work out. The energy and the gold bull. It is my money and my ultimate decision. Christine loves to label people as most liberals do.

        I have been straight up and call it like it is. Christine cant handle the truth so shut him the hell up and ban me or tell him to shut up and get over his little inadequacies and feminine tendencies.

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL the only thing I’ve been wrong (early) about was oil.

          Gold and stocks have played out perfectly. Or do you choose to ignore thaose calls.?

          1. primetime

            No, you have made some good calls. Like I said I do not question that. And I made money on the short side of gold on your advice. And also decreased position sizes in the pm on your advice which saved money.

            I told you before, I like to follow, or I would not waste the time here.

            But the exaggerated calls of 10,000, 500. 5000 nasdaq, jnug, and gold is what I am waiting for. Not this lunch money, continual trading. It is not my style, but all the more power to Goild and such.

      1. primetime

        Like always Robert. The rhetoric never ends and the BS piles up from all the legends on here. If the trade does not work out, in my eyes nothing but a bad investment. No different than a failed business investment. Life will go on and the family will continue to eat.

        1. Christian

          It’s as big as my D*ck Lol! Let’s talk on Monday and see if there’s any follow through or whether that candle was only meant to give you a sliver of hope πŸ™‚

          1. jake

            Does look like GDX didn’t get the message, I don’t know why it’s been holding up. Not the case for some of the miners.
            Give up on oil yet lol

  98. Goild

    To be congruent I sold IK SLV share sat $14.72 and 500 JNUG shares at $15.18.
    I will buy them lower.
    But drink a glass of wine to Dboz health.

    1. dboz

      Good health here. Into UWT again today and nibbling on JNUG and NUGT. Lots of powder waiting if we turn. Not going to run any stops this time. They just cost you money as they WILL get hit by a rouge spike. I still think oil can get into the 49-51 level which is a lot of green on UWT. Won’t be straight up though. Learning patience from GARY.

  99. primetime

    Mags,

    Just so you know, Christine is a little bitch who feels it is his blog and is obligated to protect a grown man who can handle himself, Gary Savage.

    So just ignore that moron Christine and keep keeping it real.

      1. primetime

        Hey dumbass, look above. I am begging Savage to ban me. Just to shut you the f up.

        I am telling on primetime. Gary, lets ban primetime. You sound like a little first grader, get over it.

  100. Gary Post author

    Folks instead of arguing and calling each other names, get your butts started in the challenge and we’ll see who is real, and who is full of BS.

        1. primetime

          LOL HA HA HA

          I love you Gary Savage, and am so hopeful to get a subscription when the energy or pm trades come to fruition. I am a man of my word.

        2. Christian

          You don’t have to spend all day monitoring Gary.. just start blocking IP addresses when A**holes like him start showing up on a regular basis.

          Again β€” constructive criticism and friendly banter welcomed. Degenerates like Primetime, not welcomed!

          It’s that freakin simple πŸ™‚

  101. primetime

    No, you have made some good calls. Like I said I do not question that. And I made money on the short side of gold on your advice. And also decreased position sizes in the pm on your advice which saved money.

    I told you before, I like to follow, or I would not waste the time here.

    But the exaggerated calls of 10,000, 500. 5000 nasdaq, jnug, and gold is what I am waiting for. Not this lunch money, continual trading. It is not my style, but all the more power to Goild and such.

  102. roadrunner

    The COT report looks good. As of Tuesday, Gold commercials are at lowest net short in the past 12 months. And with the smash today probably covered more shorts.
    Silver even better. commercials keep covering shorts and adding to longs. after today i have to think they will have covered more. definitely at or close to a bottom. Only question, is this the low for the year in silver? what about the miners? More to come..stay tuned next week..enjoy the game.

    1. Gary Post author

      One needs to look at the commercial long position as well. The Blees rating compares the net position to the last 18 months. !00 being maximum bullish. As of this week the COT for gold is 76.

      I think by the time gold reaches my triangle trend line target the Blees will be over 90 and maybe close to 100.

      1. roadrunner

        i understand. as of this COT commercial long positions up about 25% in past month. probably ev3en higher now after today. the silver COT looks good too. OI is staying high and commercials adding to longs. Silver blees must be looking good too.

      1. Gary Post author

        I do think we’re likely to see a bounce out of a DCL next week, but I’m afraid we still have one more daily cycle down before the final ICL.

        Unless gold just makes a beeline for the triangle trend line over the next week or two.

        1. roadrunner

          Sure. very possible. But if this turns out to be a Cycle low, we will know in a week or two whether it’ s right or left. So this gives good parameters for starting a position…not all in, and see how cycle plays out. if cycle fails you get out break even or small loss on small position, knowing can take bigger position at next low or its right translated and you have skin in the game and can build a good trading position for the IC. That is my thinking anyway. the market will let us know one way or another.

          1. Gary Post author

            It’s not possible to know ahead of time if a cycle will be right or left translated.

            Did we know back at the beginning of June that this cycle would end up being left translated?

          2. roadrunner

            for below post. i know Gary…that’s why I said we will know in a week or two.

    1. Robert

      It’s probably a guarantee that the miners still have the ICL ahead. The selloff so far is rather tame in my opinion. Even the DCL drop in April was more powerful than this. So your right, unless gold just continues to drop all the way down to 1170 then most likely 1 more cycle

      1. dboz

        Gold daily sentiment 10, silver 9. May low was 6 in silver. If we are not at a bottom we should be by the end of Monday. Not a launch mode or all in but probably a good rally until the end of July?

    2. Gary Post author

      Avi hasn’t even been close lately. Last I heard he was calling for a parabolic move in silver. Instead it went parabolic down. He got suckered in by the banksters recently and tried to call the bottom too early.

      I’m not sure why Surf would try to call a bottom. Gold just broke the intermediate trend line. That’s not a buy signal. Surf knows that. So I’m not sure what he was looking at that warranted a long trade too early.

      1. Christian

        Gary — I find it interesting that you took the time to DELETE last night’s message from one of your subs [who wasn’t exactly very kind to you], but somehow you can’t be bothered to clean up the rest of the trash on this blog. What gives buddy?

        1. Christian

          Here’s an after thought — I get that hanging off the edge of a cliff is the best feeling in the world and that you can’t really be bothered to monitor YOUR own blog, but you’re also running an online business and making a shit ton of money off the uninitiated (you mentioned 2000 subs once; I can do the math), so I really think you owe it to everyone to clean this place up a bit.

          1. primetime

            Christine, or resident investing expert, who admits to “not having a crystal ball”, will tell you he is the greatest and even better than Savage.

            Now he has referred to all as uninitiated meaning without special knowledge or experience.

          2. primetime

            Blogging is Christine’s life with his little faces and his capitalization of certain words.

            His life must be so empty that he just cannot get over the “trash” on his blog.

            He has the emotional capacity of a 4 year old child. I do not want him to do harm or freak out over this. He continues to beg Savage to get rid of me.

            Therefore, due to Christine’s immaturity, lack of professionalism, grossness, name calling, bullying, egotistical and hypocritical nature, and his greasiness and sleaziness as a person, I will leave the blog at my own free will.

            By doing this Savage, that also means the future subscription is now null and void.

        2. Gary Post author

          Actually he posted a bald faced lie. According to him Surf’s trades are much better than mine. I was going to calculate his exact return before responding but ball park, Surf is up maybe 4-5% since early February. Since the beginning of the year the SMT metals portfolio has gone from +50% to +144%.

          I don’t know what criteria he’s using to claim that Surfs picks are better than mine, but clearly Surf isn’t even in the same city as the smt portfolio, much less the same ballpark.

          Trolls that post tbese kind of lies get booted.

    1. Robert

      Yes u did and u were correct. What do u see coming next? Gold straight down from here to the final ICL or a bounce first then the ICL? It seems most are expecting a bounce before the final plunge

  103. Don

    Primetime, Christian has done quite well with his calls so what is the point behind your name calling attacks? If you feel he has repeatedly demonstrated bad judgement, then go after that but stop with useless name calling.

    Christian, why are you wasting your time by responding to Primetime’s bait? You have no right to ask Gary to ban anyone.

    I like reading what both have to say about the markets and see no reason for anyone to leave.

    1. Christian

      Don β€” let’s get one thing straight. I didn’t start this.. Primetime has been a JACKASS since day one (others have commented on it as well) and eventually started lashing out at me for God knows what. He’s abusive and I won’t stand for it which means I have every right to ask Gary to get rid of the garbage! It’s as simple as that my friend.

  104. Gary Post author

    Until you both enter the challenge and post real-time trades including position size, neither one of you has a foot to stand on. So I think the name-calling can just come to an end.

  105. Don

    Gary does quite well with gold and stock market predictions. Both adhere to cycles and are largely sentiment driven. The same cannot be said for crude and currencies and it is those two that have given him the most grief. If I were Gary, I would concentrate on what works best and refrain from engaging in what has been hit and miss. Most players here only care about gold anyway.

  106. Gary Post author

    Pretty much every financial blog I’ve ever seen eventually devolves into infantile name calling. I’m not sure why. Probably because most traders are young to middle age men with too much testosterone.

    Testosterone: The root of all evil in the world…unfortunately also neccesary for tbe continuation of tbe species…

    1. Christian

      Gimme a break Gary Lol! NO ONE, regardless of age, should have to listen to someone else’s abusive bullsh*t! Online or face to face.

      FACT: I’ve been following you for just a little over 3 years now and every few months or so we get these PARASITES on here that do nothing other than pollute this blog. Remember ‘LordKinbote’..?? Same freaking story.

      Get rid of the trash Gary..!

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll let you in on a secret. No one on here has a crystal ball so no one can tell you definitively which it’s going to be.

      My best guess based on cycle duration, short term sentiment, what appears to be happening with stocks and the dollar, and character of the sector for the last three months, is that we’re probably going to get another convincing bounce before the final leg down to tag the triangle trend line.

      But I could be completely wrong and gold just keeps going down.

      1. Robert

        lol Thanks for the thought Gary. Of course none of us have a crystal ball but its good that we still share our views. Its what makes this blog one of the best but recently there are too many she-males on this site. Lets keep this blog strictly about our trade ideas and not childish arguments and ego trips.

  107. Gary Post author

    I finished calculating Surf’s trading record. He is up 3.9% on all closed trades as of Friday since starting his portfolio in early February.

    Anytime someone can make money in this business it’s respectable as most don’t, and very few will ever post real time entries, and more importantly exits and position size. So far Surf is making money, but I think we can all agree that globalmltdown was grossly exaggerating when he tried to claim that Surf’s trading record was superior to the SMT.

    Since the beginning of the year the SMT metals portfolio has gone from +50% to +144%. There’s simply no comparison.

    And so far anyway no one in the trading challenge is going to be even remotely close to those returns unless something changes drastically in the months ahead.

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