248 thoughts on “MARKET UPDATE

  1. bluelagoon

    I’m looking at XOP charts and it seems to have bottomed across all timeframes. After 7 months of going down, this month it looks like it will end with a green hammer. so I expect next month to at least deliver some upside. For those who play the 3x leveraged – the ticker would be GUSH. I suppose this positive performance would coincide with what we’re finally seeing on ERX. Any other thoughts?

    1. bluelagoon

      I believe this is in line with what Gary talked about in his video – with energy having bottomed….good to know we’re on the same page.

    2. jacob2

      Believe oil trend ( also copper) changing from bear to bull. But as always it’s all about the dollar if it breaks below support soon were off to,the races but excpect some Pill back,here as a chance to add. Buying heavily shorted names in oil sands as extremely leveraged to,the oil price as opposed to ERX. Good luck.

  2. Bigdaddy

    I just shorted 300 NFLX at 184.01. people should learn how to read financial reports cause the stock is way over valued. They are not making any real money and are spending more than they are taking in. Guys, get on board now and short this dog. More ideas later. Stay tuned.

    1. dboz

      BD, since when does that matter in THIS market? TESLA had a value greater than GM. Tesla has built a few thousand cars while GM has built hundreds of millions with massive infrastructure. It’s all sentiment. No one cares if a company makes money. They just care if its cool to own and everyone knows the name.

    2. Don

      BD: You read financial reports? I am impressed. I didn’t think anyone bothered with them anymore. i would be very careful shorting something that has gone up 13% in a single day as Netflix did a few days ago. There is no telling when that party will end.

    3. Bluebellkid

      NFLX earned 43 cents/share last year, are expected to earn 1.16/share this year and 1.99 last year. In the June qtr. of last year 1424 funds owned NFLX. In the latest qtr. 1584 funds owned NFLX.

    4. Christian

      Bigdaddy — Nothing wrong with being a crontrarian but you can’t short something just because it looks over extended on a chart, Lol! You’re gonna get your Ass handed to you ONCE AGAIN πŸ™‚

    1. Nada

      Gold is going up, is it not? When dollar was up this morning, gold was down. So yeah, looks like a correlation to me.

  3. Nada

    The Euro is just crazy insane. It was an ascending wedge formation on the 8hr chart and was looking for it to break lower, but it did the opposite and broke out.

  4. Don

    How many people have to point out that gold is better correlated to the Yen, rather than the dollar, before people ‘get it’?

    1. Nada

      Of course everyone knows there is a correlation with the yen. No one is doubting that. You said there is NO correlation with the USD. That is not a fair statement.

  5. Alexandru Popovici

    Bluelagoon, I just saw i had gotten stopped out of my short-gold at 1244.5.

    Yes, you are right, ICL in Energy is behind us – we have to see now if that was the YCL too.
    Based on crude’s COT report and on the fact that SM has yet to start its YC decline, YCL for Energy still lies ahead, but we have to see.

    1. bluelagoon

      Alex – it is looking very much like a YCL in energy to me – it’s very similar in nature to Spring 2016. But yes, we’ll have to see. What we know for now is that we should see energy heading up now and that is the right side of the trade.

    1. Christian

      All this talk about correlations — Yes the Dollar/Yen is a good one to keep an eye on but ultimately the Dollar has more influence on Gold, not the Yen. It’s always been this way. Watch the Buck!

    2. Nada

      Yes, quite surprise to see it bust through that weekly resistance. Leave it to Draghi – as I am *sure* this was not the effect he was looking for, lol.

  6. Nada

    @Alexandru Popovici I knew when I saw your post this morning about the USX going to the moon and the EUR/USD about the bust, it was an ominous sign. These type of comments, that you say with certainty (the great scorch) always bite you in the ass. When will you stop?

  7. dboz

    I think after the breakout in OIL yesterday, we have much higher to run. May not be a straight shot, but could see $50+. If we get there and challenge the 55 level, THEN maybe we could break out. Not really seeing that at this point though. But the chances for a lower low are still there if oil does not break above 55.24 or whatever it is at the last high.

    1. dboz

      I thought oil was doomed to test lower lows until yesterday. Now I am back to wait and see mode. Did pick up some UWT just in case.

  8. desertsun999

    If you don’t think there is any correlation between the dollar and SILVER just wait until the dollar bottoms at 92.50. Then your going to watch SILVER rally with the dollar for an extended period of time. This is not going to be pretty for PM investors. There is no worse feeling than watching the train leave the station without you on it.

    1. Nada

      Lol, I love this comments with such certainty of exactly what an asset is going to do. Come on lets keep it real, if anyone us knew exactly what this or that was going to do, none of us would be typing on this blog. Keep it real.

      1. JJHarmen

        I am still holding GDX and looking at a small profit but it sure isn’t going up in a big hurry but it is going up faster than gold.

    2. Gary Post author

      Most of the people in the challenge right now are long metals so no one is getting left at the station. When the dollar sliced through the 38% Fib I sent out a buy signal to the SMT so we are also long and already caught a decent move off the bottom. We haven’t missed anything at this point.

      If that was an ICL then the rally should last 3-4 months so there is lots of time left before an intermediate top (assuming that was an ICL and not just a DCL).

      It probably just boils down to whether the current administration can prevent the dollar from rallying and producing an ICL. They’ve managed to stretch the current intermediate cycle to absurd lengths so I’m not going to rule out the possibility that the dollar just keeps going down like Trump wants.

      1. desertsun999

        Gary, I have stated on this board about a dozen times what the dollar was going to do over the last two months. Go back and read your own blog. So I guess my magic 8 ball is the only one capable of predicting the dollar! I have also stated numerous times that the silver/dollar inverse relationship will not work at all during this bottom. Most here are in a state of disbelief……….the shake out process has done its job quite well.

        1. roadrunner

          desertsun999 has been correct with his dollar call. i would also say that i think he will be correct with his silver call. From my thinking and i posted as much on July 7, that the PM’s had reached a point where a low risk long trade could be deployed. Whether that was a ICl or DCL would be determined in a couple weeks. Well we are almost at that point. i have been long silver and GDX since July 10. So far its working out. i did not go all in. just a starter position of 25% of what I will commit to metals. if we have reached an ICL i will add much more at next DCL.

      2. JJHarmen

        ” I’m not going to rule out the possibility that the dollar just keeps going down like Trump wants”. And with that simple statement, you will be right no matter which way the dollar goes. Nice move!

        1. Gary Post author

          If I’ve said it once I’ve said it a dozen times. I will never trade currencies. They are the most heavily manipulated markets on the planet.

          So I don’t care where it bottoms or if it does. My only interest is that if the dollar is prevented from rallying then gold may have completed its ICL. I’ve been trading from the long side for the last week while I wait to see what the buck is going to do. I’m ready to exit if it shows signs of being ready to turn.

          But I’ve been very clear that I think the dollar has begun a new bear market. We’re just trying to decide if and when it will produce a bear market rally.

    3. Christian

      SILVER will not rally with dollar bud — wake up!

      Silver is going to be re-testing the lows while Gold drops into an ICL. Once the ICL is in then and only then will silver be a STRONG BUY!

  9. HomerJ

    Another kick to the ballsac of ERX bagholders as the fakeout heads back to the dowtrend line.

    1. Christian

      A re-test of the breakout/channel trendline is not necessarily a kick to the ballsack HomerJ πŸ™‚

      1. Bluebellkid

        I posted this on the last thread but I did sell my USLV and did buy some GUSH (@22.20). Not long after I sold the USLV silver bottomed and moved up and not long after I bot the GUSH it moved back down below resistance. It’s the end of the day that will be the tell and end of the week tomorrow.

        1. bluelagoon

          Bluebellkid, just my opinion, but I think GUSH is on its way up bigger picture but shorter timeframes – it had to correct as it was up against resistance and the 100ma still has to catch up to the 200ma – so it may bounce in this $20-23 range for a while.

        2. Christian

          Not sure why you exited that trade Blue.. I did say that Silver could very well tag the 50DMA before rolling over and I said the same thing about Gold.

          I told you to keep a close eye on it πŸ™‚

  10. dboz

    I am not going to get left at the station. Loaded up pretty good in the Premarket (cleaned up there) JNUG 17.17 and NUGT at 29.90 today for my personal accounts and bought miners at the open for the contest.

    Still seriously skeptical of the miners though. Pretty good upsurge in the metals and miners still not playing along. My guess is we take out 1260 and push 1300 to get it going good, then break out over 1300 to bring in the chasers.

    1. Christian

      I am happy to take the other side of that trade my friend πŸ™‚

      I pointed out yesterday that the move up in Miners was anemic for a reason and you’re buying hand over fist?? Damn son!

      1. Nada

        Yes, they have reset sentiment quite well πŸ™‚ I hear all the talk of 1300 and higher now. The top must be getting close.

      2. dboz

        It was the exact same way before the breakout in early 2016. Lulls everyone to sleep, shakes everyone off, slow grind, boring, then BOOM, launch mode. Not saying we are at launch mode, just saying it is worth a shot right now. Not a lot of wiggle room for me so I am going to run a stop as I don’t have complete faith in this move up right now.

    2. JJHarmen

      Dboz, nice move to have “loaded up” in JNUG and NUGT, and to do so in pre-market. So, what tipped you off that they would be going up today?

      1. dboz

        Someone posted a couple days ago that GARY bought NUGT. So I figured with the big pullback, that offered an opportunity to get in. Of course, he could have already sold and I am left holding the bag. LOL Time will tell. Somewhat of a tight stop. No where near as deep in miners as I was last year and this year. They burned me enough. I have finally worked back up out of the hole. Not wanting to go down that hard again. That crash in FEB this year crushed me. I think I lost 10% or more in just a matter of about 10-20 minutes. Not fun.

  11. Americano

    Gary is the “Bitcoin Standard” for sentiment. TQQQ in the 401k did me well earlier this year!

  12. desertsun999

    I will check back in when the tears are flowing. You can’t say I didn’t try to warn you.

    1. dboz

      I don’t think this is a buy and hold. I think this is a buy and sell maybe by next week? Just going with the flow. A silver breakout would really help though!

  13. Don

    Christian: ” ultimately the Dollar has more influence on Gold, not the Yen. It’s always been this way” You might want to reflect on the facts:

    Over the past five years, the (inverse) correlation of USD/Gold has been .602. During the same period the (positive) correlation of Yen/Gold has been .941.

    Looking at a longer time frame, ten years, the USD/Gold correlation has been .569 whereas the YEN/Gold correlation has been better at .657.

    No contest , the YEN/Gold correlation has been the one to pay attention to.

    1. Christian

      I’m not talking about correlations Don. The US dollar has more influence on Gold then any other currency that’s the point that I’m trying to highlight. Why? Because the US Dollar is a political bulldog and always has been, hence — watch the buck!

      1. Don

        Geez, Christian, I just demonstrated that the YEN has been influencing gold more so than the dollar and you still insist the dollar is the more important factor. There is only one explanation for your inflexible viewpoint…. you MUST be an American!

  14. goldilocks

    My goodness, you all must have purchased crystal balls when they were the Blue Light Special at K-Mart! LOL!!!

    1. Christian

      Not really — just following cycles and momentum. Trading doesn’t have to be hard.

  15. zkotpen

    The correlations are:
    DXY very strong negative correlation with EURUSD, both daily and yearly;
    USDJPY very strong negative correlation with gold – daily; strong negative correlation with gold – yearly.

    For example:

    EURUSD approaching ICH (also YCH) while DXY approaches ICL (also YCL)

    XAUUSD at its 50 day SMA — far from IC high or low, even further from YC high or low
    USDJPY at its 50 day SMA — far from IC high or low, even further from YC high or low

    1. Bigdaddy

      I wish things would go my way right from the moment I buy. Netflix is going up after I shorted it. Don’t people realize what a great short it is? Why would anyone with a brain buy something that has gone up 17% in just five days? And why, because it makes a few pennies per share last quarter? You would have to be retarded to buy that sucker.

      1. Gary Post author

        That one is easy. Traders are buying because like me they recognize that we are entering a final bubble phase and this is the time when emotions take control and price rockets higher despite any fundamental reasoning. Smart money doesn’t want to get left behind or miss the move. Other than during a baby bull there is no other time to make money so fast as the final euphoria phase.

        It’s dangerous to try to fight this trend until the bubble pops.

        1. Don

          Netflix is actually up over 21 percent in the last month so your short may pay off in time because those kind of moves are not sustainable. But be nimble because Gary is right, in the last stage of a bull market, parabolic or not, logic goes right out the window and some stocks go up without any fundamentals backing the move.

      2. Bluebellkid

        Of all the stocks to short out there why pick one in an uptrend? Mustang Sally has the right idea – you want to pick something that has dropped below support. Now, just dropping below support does not make it a for sure thing but stocks that drop below the 50 day and stay there for more than a few weeks are flashing red flags. Here are some stocks that are listed on IBD’s Stocks On The Move list (Down list) that are selling off on heavy volume that would be better candidates:

  16. AT

    I wonder where is that Gold ICL? If dollar will suddenly run back up, will likely cause the Gold ICL? Thanks

    1. Nada

      Hey AT. The question remains, in regards to if this is a bounce coming out of a DC or ICL. I believe it’s a DC, but I am prepared to be wrong. I can’t even pretend to guess when the Dixie will bounce and Euro top. GL

  17. Nada

    Mustang Sally, you still holding ol’ Dusty my friend? If so, do you have a stop in place or are you patiently waiting for a turn. GL and I entered DUST for contest trade recently too. Looks like Draghi gave me a pinch. However, my position size was 30% and I bought at 30.44.

  18. dboz

    We may have the makings of a stealth bull going on here. Just meanders up slow grind and no one thinks this is it because it looks so week. Accumulation along the entire trip. No easy buy in signal. No big crash down so EVERYONE can board the train at the station. May just keep chugging here and make you have to run down the tracks wondering why you did not listen to the conductor when he was yelling ALL ABOARD for the last 3 weeks.

    Could sure use a good 30% explosion day though, maybe by end of next week if we show signs of break out or the dollar totally implodes to scare people with a market pullback. Who knows. Stops set. Tired of trying but if you never try, you never win.

  19. mustang sally

    Good afternoon Nada: It banged my marker on dust this morning (29.30) and bounced several times, so I know its real, I switched to jdst a few days ago, if I had more bingo money I would be piling in on jdst.


    1. Nada

      Ahh, yes always best to go settings – leverage – max! What entry did you pickup JDST? GL!

      1. mustang sally

        Hey Nada: Went in around 67.00 based on my dust marker, think there is some noise to get the gold bugs frothing,


    2. Don

      Mustang S: I hope you are right about the SM. It does look awful toppy but I have given up trying to pick tops. There is only one top and that is the final one. All the rest become wrong calls.

  20. Don

    The Yen is backing off, now up 0.017% and GLD is now struggling and only up .22%. meanwhile, UUP is still down .60%. Not hard to see what is correlated with what.

  21. Nada

    @bluebellkid Looks like AA played out this morning. Did you sell any of your position on the pop or you still in options and stock? GL

    1. Bluebellkid

      Still own stock and options. The stock was up to 37.31 and volume was running heavy but it has now pulled back and volume has slowed. I still like it and hopefully it closes the week tomorrow near the highs of the week – looks like volume will come in a little below average for the week barring a huge day tomorrow. I didn’t get the pop I had hoped that would have benefited the options.

  22. Bigdaddy

    I think Facebook is another good candidate for a short sell. My grandkids told me they don’t bother with Facebook anymore because it is bloated and works poorly on their phones. Now I have to use Snaphcat if I want to see pictures of them. Personally, I hate Facebook. Too much junk on the news feed. Let’s short that sucker! More ideas coming, stay tuned.

    1. bigglaze

      Are you bonkers?? Facebook is actually a decent growth stock with strong fundamentals and is undervalued. Shorting it now is a mistake.


    Gary, does this mean we’ll not seeing a gold ICL at 1180 anymore ?
    Have we really left the station ?
    Anyone against that and why ?
    Could a beginning gold bull not be hammered back down in case of a coming summer down phase in SM’s ?

    1. mustang sally

      Mr W. I am short with jdst and if my marker holds on dust at 29.30 then we are going lower than that in gold.

      Shortin Sally

    2. Nada

      Sorry, but no one call tell with certainty if this is a bounce out of the fourth daily cycle or a bounce out of the ICL. In my opinion, the ICL is still in front of us and 1180 is very much on the table. Opinions will vary on this, and time will show us the answer.

    1. Nada

      Afternoon BD. Here’s the thing. You have ER in 6 days. Typically things like to run up into ER, but of course no guarantee on this. Problem is, FB has a history of knocking the ball out of the f’ing park with their results.

      1. Nada

        Ahh.. yes, none of us make trades without the wife’s approval. You know you got a winner BD if she signed off on your short. Dollars to donuts she knows nothing about it πŸ˜›

        1. Bigdaddy

          Piss of Nada and you too Harmen. I wear the pants in this family and do what I want with the markets. I have plenty of money so it doesn’t matter to the wife anyway. She just doesn’t like me swearing and carrying on when I get pissed. Then I have to pay attention or shit happens.

          1. Nada

            Lol, if I remember correctly she lost her shit and busted your tower. I thought you were trading from the shed? Sounds to me like she is running things BD!

  24. JJHarmen

    BD does have a point though, My family rarely uses FB anymore although we haven’t closed our accounts. I guess the number of accounts (users) is what FB waves in front of the noses of advertisers and that is all that matters to them.

  25. desertsun999

    Friday we gap up in the metals. Resistance lines will be broken with a nice tall white candle to end the week.
    It has to be…………..magic 8 ball says………..IT IS DECIDEDLY SO!

      1. mustang sally

        Yes Nada, the more the merrier, my golden sticks website are flaming gold bugs again, to the moon we go, I will let my markers tell me where I should be going, and right now its gold down,


      2. desertsun999

        Nada & Christian, I am just curious. If we gap up tomorrow and SIL closes above weekly resistance what is the next move for you guy’s? Does it change your conviction at all?

        1. dboz

          I am going to hold my miners here. Should have sold my oil when I was up big today. Instead now down the toilet. I am getting gun shy on buying and holding anything more than a few days. Nothing trends for long it seems except the SM.

          Oh well, easy come, easy go.

          Oh, and I sold my DGAZ yesterday ahead of the draw count because I got fried holding my oil. Gas had a big draw down and it tanks and missed 5% today. Drives you nuts with the markets.

  26. mustang sally

    Hey Biggy: For all its woth my marker for shorting fb is around 136. anything below you can crazy, and you are right facebook is history unless it can reinvent itself

    Texting Sally

    1. Bigdaddy

      Glad to see i am not the only one that thinks FB has turned into a dead prospect. I just looked at it a few minutes ago, it has been a while, i can’t believe what a mess the news feed has become. You gotta scroll and scroll and scroll through piles of horseshit. BTW, I just shorted another 200 at 164.50.

  27. Bigdaddy

    Where is primetime? He spiced up this board with his cantankerous attitude. Too many ass kissers make for a boring board.

  28. Bigdaddy

    All this dammed typing I have been doing has distracted my focus. Silver is falling to pieces. WTF?

  29. Bigdaddy

    Not doing so hot with SOXS either. Shit. I am checking out for a while and taking the pooch for a walk. I think he wants to take a dump on the neighbor’s grass. I will be back before the market close.

  30. Don

    The transportation index has not been going along with the SM party. That used to mean something in the past but it seems all the old indicators have gone out the window since the central banks hi-jacked the markets.

  31. desertsun999

    For all those on the sideline watch the weekly close on SIL tomorrow. If we close above resistance that has been penetrated 4 times before with a tall white weekly candle that should give us some blue sky’s for a while.

  32. dboz

    Man, I am just beat down right now. There is just no winning. If you don’t turn into a day trader, it just whipsaws back and forth. Really frustrating.

    Miners jump out of the hole big, looks like they will do something, now sitting here watching a pretty good day trade worth of profits evaporate just like I watched a 4 figure gain in UWT go out the window today. My 5k up day has melted into a 2k up day and now I am getting fidgety again watching everything tank. No conviction on my part, but why should I?

  33. Bluebellkid

    The 50 day is also proving to be resistance for GDX and miners are not seeing any volume to speak of – makes me wonder if a beat down isn’t coming – AGAIN!

    1. Christian

      Yup — That’s what I keep saying. People refuse to accept the obvious.

      Miners are anemic for a reason folks.

  34. dboz

    For sure. I am certain some of my issues is buying 3X ETF which are volatile. The problem is the underlying securities just don’t trend for more than a day or two. The metals and energy have earned their spots as 32 and 33 on the list. They are not only impossible and frustrating but appear on the verge of maybe rolling over again. Just when oil is looking good it drops right back down under support/reistance at 46.96 to make you think it’s a failed breakout, or MAYBE just a backtest. Either way, it’s a roll of the dice from here. Up or big down draft?

  35. Bigdaddy

    I’m back, dog just needed a leak on the neighbor’s tree which is looking sickly anyway.
    So, i am up on SLV, down on SOXS, up on NFLX and down on FB for a 50% win rate. That’s better than most analysts. I will be back later tonite if anyone is looking for an update for new ideas.

  36. Don

    Dboz, I am also becoming very wary of the long term hold. It seems that while there is record low volatility in the overall market, individual sectors are being whip-sawed up and down with extreme volatility for weeks at a time before finally making a big move after which the whip sawing recommences.

    I suspect that volatility is what contributes the profit of the machine traders but at the expense of the retail trader and that is us.

    1. dboz

      Yes, and the moves are fast, short and violent. So it’s easy to miss and impossible to chase. I have learned that the hard way again today. Chased UWT yesterday only to see another big pull back and make me question everything. Not saying this should be easy. Look at this USOIL chart, looks ready to keel over again now any day.


  37. Don

    This stock market action reminds me somewhat of the year 1987, when the market was going up for no apparent reason and without the benefit of supporting fundamentals. Oil prices were depressed and were not a drag on the economy. The economy was growing, but at a sluggish pace, much as it is now. However, the stock market was moving up in relentless fashion. V shaped recoveries from shallow pull backs had become the norm, again, much like the current environment.

    Most investors saw no reason for the pattern not to continue although there certainly was no great euphoria. A recession was not in anyone’s sights especially since the economy was not over heated.

    July and August were strong months with a small pullback in late August followed by a gradual recovery in September and into early October. A return to new highs was expected. Then the market faltered and broke through a support line, then recovered the next day and then slipped under the day after that. A few more days of modest declines followed and then the SHTF in a big way.

    So, what was blamed for what turned out to be a world wide crash of the markets? It wasn’t the economy. There was a conflict that was going on between Iran and the US that is credited for creating the ‘spark’ for the crash (that actually started in Asia). However, ultimately, the magnitude of the crash was blamed on, wait for it, ‘computer programmed trading’. That’s right, even back then, those dammed machines were problem!

    Thankfully, checks and balances and the PPT have been put in place so that another crash can never occur in such a short time frame. It just takes longer now (think 2008)

    1. dboz

      Yep, I think the problem with the markets now is the EMOTION has been removed due to machines. They don’t care, they just do it. This is also why Gary talks about stretched cycles etc., because machines don’t care about time frames and they don’t think “man this needs to pull back here” like you do when you are emotionally involved.

  38. ras

    Bloomberg industrial metals sub index in an uptrend, their pm sub index in a down trend. BPGDM is still stuck in neutral.

  39. ras

    Earnings release from amzn, googl, fb next week, Apple and Nvda in August. Interesting times ahead.

  40. zkotpen


    Thanks for the alternate gold charts. As a group, along with XAUUSD, they are interesting, for context. Specifically, how to characterize the June peak. It is as I had thought: Wave B of an irregular flat in XAUUSD — an “overshoot high” (the corollary to the “undercut low”), in a correction of intermediate degree.

    I agree: They look bearish, but not too bearish, as you say.

    As in, they look like we’ve had 3 waves down from June’s wave B peak, currently in a wave 4 corrective bounce, to be followed by wave 5 down to complete the ICL.

    You can also see what I’ve been saying for months: That pseudo “lower triangle trendline” is most certainly not sacrosanct!

    Next on the cutting block after that: The pseudo “upper triangle trendline”, which will also get sliced… and diced.

  41. zkotpen


    Thanks for the Aug 3-6 dates. I will keep them in mind.

    Your July 11-17 dates were certainly close enough!


    stupid remark and forgive me my poor english: why the miners don’t follow gold/silver ? is it because gold is in (weak(er)) usd and miners in (strong(er)) cad ?

    1. zkotpen


      That has been the theme since early February. This is a correction to a correction to a correction to a correction… to a correction (I think I got that correct). If that sounds confusing, it’s because the wave pattern is highly complex, corrective in nature — not impulsive.

      The drop into the ICL is likely to be a little stronger, as all of the smaller fractals will be pointing down (as opposed to correcting each other at each degree), but not extraordinary.

  43. dboz

    Because the miners have crashed 3 times and people don’t trusr the move and they expect lower prices. This is getting juicy now. Silver is sitting above resistance. We could be getting close to a big short squeeze. Way more people are loaded short than long. If gold goes through 1250, then 1260 if highly likely. Many still expect 13-1400 before a down turn. If that happens miners will launch with the shorts getting squeezed and the side liners chasing.

    Zkot, you can see in those charts there is certainly a lot of room for gold to rise.

    Finally, after the next ride up, THEN we could crash out. As someone posted already, maybe early Aud to mid August.

    1. Gary Post author

      I noted in the video that if the 38% fib didn’t stop the crash then the dollar was likely to make it to the 200 week moving average.

      That’s now in play with the FOMC meeting being a likely trigger next week.

      All that being said currencies don’t really respond to cycles or sentiment anymore, so it’s anyone’s guess if the dollar will give us a bounce out of an ICL anytime soon. The intermediate cycle has become so stretched as to be absurd now.

      This is why I will never trade currencies.

      1. jake

        The Euro has been basing for two years, if it breaks resistance here it could launch to back to120? after all everything is now great in Europe…

  44. dboz

    Gary, I have seen a few people say the 30 yr T are about to launch in price, giving lower yield. I think that points us to a clue. If price starts to turn up on 30yr, and we get a big yield drop, that could be nitroglycerin for gold.

    Dollar could fall another 3 bucks before it turns? Now USDJPY could waterfall also. Double rocket fuel.

  45. dboz

    All I know, shorts are going to start to feel it if we blast through 1250 rapidly and strongly.

  46. Nada

    Dboz, I see you are back selling the bull theory with much enthusiasm this morning. You should try stocktwits – those guys LOVE to pump, thinking their posts will effect the price of an asset. I like the 1300-1400 before any type of correction comment the best. One thing is for sure, anything is possible with geopolitical environment.

  47. dboz

    Needs a strong move here. Not pumping. Just keeping open to both scenarios. Things could roll over today. Silver is sitting right there. A big upside blast could get things running.

  48. Ed

    Nada, dont ever think you are safe because you wearing a gas mask. I had to go in gas chamber every year while I was in military. It’s no fun. If you don’t? It wrong gas mask become useless. Same thing with your logic gold and bond are inversely related. Strong dollar and stock market are not positively related. These days investors are spoon deeded. Conventional macroeconomics are thing of history. Bonds are very tricky. It can be posively or negatively related based on degree of interest rate.
    I am watching Trump. He is cornered. Cornered anything become very dangerous. Dems and deep states are overpaying their hands. And that’s not good for America. Gold price will rocket from here on.

    1. Nada

      I know it sounds powerful, to say that gold will rocket from here. However, you and I have no idea what gold is going to do one day or the next, so don’t presume statements like those have any weight. I am not sure if it’s ego or how to define, but people sound like a fool when they say with certainty what an asset will do. Not trying to sound negative, but when I hear talk of deep state I start thinking someone is watching too much of what Alex Jones is selling.

      It’s fine to say you believe an asset with do this or that, it’s the ones that say with certainty are the ones the market makes fools of. Today will be no different.

      1. roadrunner

        “but when I hear talk of deep state I start thinking someone is watching too much of what Alex Jones is selling.” ..or Eisenhower and Kennedy. they were selling the same thing..they are all right and you are wrong. Some people can be fooled all of the time.

  49. TraderPete

    Gold and silver are going to the moon, especially silver. Forget about 1180 and 14. I’m making a ton of money, none of this lunch money that Goild seems to make everyday. 😎

  50. bluelagoon

    USLV has certainly done better than UGLD since this cycle started – 23% return vs. 10%. I’m going to start looking at silver. I know Gary mentioned it’s thinly traded and follows gold…definitely seems to be better returns if you’re on the right side.

    1. bluelagoon

      Wow – it’s actually done even better than JNUG – 18% so far since this cycle began.

  51. Pedestrian

    July 20, 2017 at 12:06 pm

    And what ever happened to Pedestrian?

    Doing exactly what I said I would do BD which is to stay the hell away from gold during its seasonal slow period. This bounce since early June is nothing to get excited about. The next decline will take us below 1200 dollars so I won’t be doing any buying until after the next cycle down at the earliest We still have a couple months for gold to consolidate and see lower levels which should be pretty obvious from the look of the chart. Depressing for the bugs too. Gold may not be responding the way most here expected as the dollar fell sharply but I can assure you when the buck rises (coming soon) its going to start hurting metal prices again. I still expect GDX to breakdown to its 2015 / 2016 lows.

    1. roadrunner

      good luck with that thesis…maybe you should join Gary’s bingo game to see if you have the chops.

      1. Pedestrian

        No shortage of chops here Road boy. Gold has a little more life in it yet but its next direction is down. Use the GLD chart instead of staring at spot gold and you will get a better feel for whats coming. GLD is forming a very nice dome since the start of the year. The curve is obvious on both top and bottom of the rolling channel and the trend will assert itself to the downside once this current run is complete. So sorry but I wont be joining your little competition. Gary forbids day traders.

    2. Bigdaddy

      Pedestrian, i wasn’t asking for you to come back, just in case your started swelling but thanks for your prognosis on gold cause you are usually wrong. Buy silver if you want to make some easy money.

  52. Christian

    GOLD — 1250 is the 50% FIB retracement but I think we’re heading up to 1260/65 (62% FIB), just purely based on momentum. Anything more than 1265 and we are potentially dealing with a whole other animal.

    I’ll be looking to buy DUST next week by the looks of it πŸ™‚

    Ps: Euro may have found a top at 1.167. Let’s see if we get a “swing high”.

    Enjoy your weekend Goombas..!

  53. HomerJ

    As I said yesterday, ERX is making bagholders out of SMT. Back under the 50ma and declining trendline. Why you suckers keep holding this trade long-term is incomprehensible to me.

  54. jake

    Right if it breaks resistance it would be a opportune time for the commercials to pull the plug during expiry week.

  55. dboz

    Sold all my JNUG and NUGT this AM in the first 10 minutes just a few cents off the highs. Learned this pattern after many painful holds and retraces. Catch the morning euphoria and then dive the rest of the day. Plenty of time to get back on, but back below resistance so not looking good.

    Wish I had time to do the same for the contest but my REAL money mattered more.

  56. Bigdaddy

    Did Bigdaddy not tell everyone to stay away from oil stocks for the time being ? Yep. All those holding ERX and GUSH are getting their asses handed to them .

  57. Bigdaddy

    How many times did i pound the table (love that phrase) about buying silver? At least a dozen times. Those who listened have nice profits . Don’t sell, buy more on pullbacks. Stay tuned.

  58. dboz

    The energy whipsaw is killer. OIL blasted again, now thinking it may have topped? Who knows. Impossible. Why do I keep bottom feeding in these brutal sectors? Glutton for punishment. As long as I stay nimble with in and outs, it has been decent. Buy and holds. NOPE!

  59. Bigdaddy

    I am back into a profit on SOXS but my shorts on NFLX and FB are not working out just yet. They are both dog shit stocks so follow my lead and short them.

    1. Bigdaddy

      I have actually shorted only two stocks, Netflix and Facebook. SOXS is a reverse ETF and a buy. I think it was Don that pointed out that if the semis did not make new highs, they were headed down.

  60. JJHarmen

    Gary has said that ERX is a longer term hold. I guess he figures that you just have to take the draw downs in stride. I might even buy some when it gets below $20.

  61. JJHarmen

    GDX was looking good this morning but as DBOZ pointed out, strength evaporates quickly for the miners. I think it’s just a shake out tactic and eventually, the miners are going to launch much higher.

  62. bluelagoon

    I think we all know this – nothing goes up in a straight line. I’m not as experienced as Gary or many of you when it comes to cycle counting but it looks to me like:
    – oil is in a new ICL and has just hit its high in its first DCL
    – this means that it’s heading down but should not go lower than the last DCL low – so my marker is $10 in UWT
    – then it should start a new DCL – that’s where I would get in.

    Thoughts from anyone else? Gary? Alex?

  63. jake

    Looking at the daily chart oil looks like a double top in the beta wave but Gary is right, won’t know until it becomes right or left translated?

  64. zkotpen

    I don’t know how to say the following in a schmoozy, charming way.

    This is the correct way to draw a triangle:


    Triangles can be extremely difficult to view in real time — I am just now seeing the above triangle, one day late.

    And it’s still difficult to see on GDX — easier to see on gold — I was actually looking for it in gold, in real time, but gold formed a flat Wednesday night/Thursday pre-market, not a triangle.

    If you draw the triangle incorrectly, you decrease the predictive value of your chart. This triangle, and what came after it were confusing in real time.

    1. Christian

      That my friend is not how you draw trendlines — I can’t believe we’re still having this conversation πŸ™

  65. Don

    The biotechs have been strong and not showing any signs of backing down. The momentum players have been piling in.

  66. dboz

    GDX and it’s failure to really even test the 22.65 mark is really all you need to watch. If it takes off over that level we have something, if not, lower lows probably in the future. I am still sitting on my XAU chart that says no launch until Nov. Dec., just like the last 3 years at those times. Weird, but why fight. Load the boat in Dec. and bail in Jan/Feb. Wait a year and do it again! LOL

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks man. Good to be back if only for today. Sorry to hear things are downhill here.

      1. JJHarmen

        PED, what other blog site you are active on? I like watching you dish out torture to others.

  67. Don

    Hats off to Bigdaddy for his relentless calls to buy silver, up 3.25% in the last five trading days.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Don, BTW, i liked your 1987 history lesson. I wasn’t in the markets then ( no spare cash) but remember that no one could figure out why the market had tanked. Everyone was afraid something really bad was going to happen but nothing ever did and the market recovered.

  68. felix115

    Gary, At what price of gold now, you’ll consider no more valid your vision of a test of the base of the triangle. (1170/1180$)

  69. matrix

    a typical friday where machines trade on centecimals…..with minimum range……boring!!

  70. Don

    The daily and weekly charts for GDX are looking positive for further gains. The monthly chart is not yet looking as promising and won’t until it gets past the 23.90 level, give or take a few points.

  71. Ed

    Like Nada said I have no idea what gold will do next 1 sec. If I do I wouldn’t be hang around here for sure. But this is my reasoning my probability of making a lot of money in gold miners is a far better than any other asset classes. Something happened 2012 that drastically altered all fundamentals of macro economics. These days you cannot compare anything with pre 2012.
    So if you look at from 2012 what really happened?
    Bonds and stocks done tremendous job while gold tanked absolutely destroyed.
    If we have traditional macroeconic principles hold, greater money supply raise all asset values except bonds because they are inflationary. Gold should have done as well as general stock markets. But that is not what happened. All the money went into stocks bonds and any other assets except for gold.
    So when central bankers lose control of economy, I would safely assume that alk things will revert to norms. Somebody said something about I am watching Infowar for saying deep state you haven’t lived in US as I have. The America I see today stinks hell. People should start to think about why people voted Trump. Trump is polarizing figure who strives on confrontations. If he is this successful in becoming President that tells a lot of the other half. Only reason I mentioning politics in this blog is gold is tied to Trump.

      1. Ed

        Gold miners.
        No GLD SLV stuffs. They are the bank cartels gold price suppression tools.
        Think miners gold vaults underground.
        Depending on your beta, go for individuals or ETFs.
        Think about geo-politica but then they are all priced in among miners. Go for miners with large reserves.
        Silver, I am not so sure. I have no opinion. I still got to figure out what this all about silver substitute in solar panels.

  72. Don

    The YEN is up .62% and Gold is up .62% . The strong correlation continues and the YEN weekly chart looks like it very likely to move higher. That should help gold and silver and baffle the bears.

  73. Nada

    A few weeks ago, I believe it was Gary calling for GLD to gap fill 111.30ish. Boy has sentiment changed.

    GLD optix is 67 now and GOLD optix is 47. My oh my, when will the dollar turn? Dollar sentiment is at 31 – excessive pessimism. Cheers

  74. Bigdaddy

    It’s obvious i have been too early with shorting Netflix. It’s a dog shit stock but that doesn’t stop the fools from pushing it higher. I will think about it when i take the dog for a walk. Speaking of dog shit, he didn’t have a crap yesterday and i am worried that he may be constipated. Wonder if it would be ok to put some Exlax in his food? Any ideas guys? maybe I will call the vet. I am taking him out now so catch you all later.

    1. Don

      DO NOT put exlax in the dog’s food. The vets have special treatments for animals that are constipated. also, dry dog food is very bad for dogs.

  75. zkotpen

    Looking at Palobar’s Aug 3-6 dates for gold, that corresponds to the employment report.

    Gold & GDX might reach their daily cycle peaks.

    Maybe 23.87 for GDX? πŸ™‚

    1. zkotpen

      “Gold & GDX might reach their daily cycle peaks.”

      Should read:

      “Gold & GDX might reach their daily cycle peaks at that time.”

  76. Don

    Hey ped, you said over and over that if the Canadian dollar went up, it would lead crude. I said , nonsense. So, in the last three months, the Canadian dollar has risen 7% while crude has fallen 5%. That’s quite a divergence and enough to conclude that another one of your theories has been a load of rubbish.

  77. bluelagoon

    One thing to note – XAU/USD has 50DMA<100DMA for the first time since Oct 2016 when we saw the ICL decline in gold.

    So bigger picture, gold may top out at 1260's TOPS and if this happens, I'd expect a long ride down – 4-6 weeks?

  78. Ed

    I will sell all my gold miners as soon as I sense impending tax cut and budget deals are on horizon. Until then we have a lots of shit that will drag USD down.

  79. JJHarmen

    Can we now assume that seeing the miners break the Dec lows is now off Gary’s list of high probabilities or is it going to take a bit longer?

    1. Nada

      Not off the table yet. We do not have confirmation if this is a new daily cycle or if were are coming out of an intermediate cycle low. I suspect from here to 1265sh will be the cycle top of a LT cycle and then we head into ICL. However, like everyone else.. It’s just a GUESS.

        1. Nada

          If I was Gary, I would not be saying I was *guessing*.

          I would say something like. “I don’t know how many times I have to tell you retail traders, that have the attention span of a ferret on crystal meth, but when the dollar puts in an undercut of the 38.2 fib, she is going to make your balls shrink”.

          How about that?

          1. Nada

            Thanks Gary, I am sitting here talking to myself when the party has started in a new blog entry πŸ˜›

  80. JJHarmen

    When is the multi week rally for the USD going to start and how high can we expect it to go?

  81. Nada

    @Pedestrian Just an FYI, since you are probably seeing comments in connection with alter egos. When you were away, it was speculated that you were using the alias of Mustang Sally. Gary even chimed in and said you two were the same person due to a close IP. I like Mustang Sally, so I guess I will like you too πŸ™‚

  82. HomerJ

    ERX/XLE failure at 50ma and downtrendline could be the start of the next leg lower. Only hope for bagholders is a basing pattern here. So far, i don’t see it. SLB reported very good earnings this morning and doing pretty shitty in spite of that.

  83. dboz

    Well, I was expecting a pullback in energy, I was not expecting this. That said, I did buy back into energy as things were way too bullish and needed reset. Kicking myself for selling my DGAZ and DWT two days too early. Today was somewhat of a bloodbath in oil and gas. Of course the possibility is that we just continue to bottom on out and set some new lows. I think we get a turn here and then another run back up. This move really shook out the weak hands and let people load up if you are on the bullish side. Who knows though. Total crap shoot.

  84. plungerboy

    Hello SMT bloggers:

    I am a 73yo male and I have been in the markets since 1967. I owned and ran a full blown Ohio corporation for 20 years specializing in A.I.

    It is no longer about price discovery; fundamental analysis is now worthless. The algos have taken over to the point that they are competing against each other. And it is worse than that. The algos are now adaptive; i.e., they are learning. They are using a technology called genetic programming which is based on the science of evolution. They are pragmatic, opportunistic and well-versed in arbitrage and front running.

    Please do not misunderstand – I am not recommending anything. The only way I am making profits is by becoming a “counter puncher.” I wait to see what the algos do then make a decision to buy or sell at a supply/demand level.

    IMHO this is the only way to “win” these days. Thank you for your time.

  85. dboz

    BIGDADDY, if you are looking for a nice stock to short, take a look at BOEING. It looks ripe for a drop soon.

  86. roadrunner

    COt looks good for the PM’s, especially silver, where Commercials cut shorts and increased longs, Specs did the opposite, while price went up about $0 .70 This is not the signs of crashing anytime soon.

        1. jacob2

          Not cycles but one thing that would make stocks go down and gold go Up. Trump fires Mueller. Catastrophic. Possible if not probable.

  87. dboz

    Daily sentiment before today. Can’t think today did much for crude or gas. Maybe we get a snap back? Gold and silver have stayed relatively flat. The metals have just gotten weird. Thought about restocking today on the pullbacks but held off. Best way to I find is to wait for an overnight draw down, then pick up shares in the pre market panic before the morning ramp up, then sell the opening euphoria. So far so good last 2-3 times. I may have gotten caught in this oil/gas draw down now. If we get an oil bounce, I may have to liquidate.

    Crude 35.0
    Nat Gas 36.0
    Gold 30.0
    Silver 28.0
    Platinum 35.0
    Palladium 72.0

  88. Steffmeister

    *** I am on Vacation ***

    Just a short break today, I’ve analyzed the gold waves and it looks like we are going to top out soon. Then down for a while longer … so yes, I’ve convinced Gary and most of the blogg πŸ˜› that the ICL is in, but I do not think so, according to my work today.

    That will also correspond to a Dead Rat bounce in the dollar for a … while …

    And yes of course I could be totally wrong, I was a little bit overoptimistic after summer solstice, but other than that my portfolio is in healthy shape. No real fireworks bcos of summer doldrums.

    A side note:
    If advanced and ultra fast computers is controlling the markets, why did gold turn on a lunar cycle? The Sun is the true timekeeper. I am counting Sun degrees in Gold.

  89. mustang sally

    Good morning to Everyone , including you Ped my alter ego.

    Well my dust marker at 29.30 is in a real battle, as I said before I also watch the canadian version of dust hgd,to. and the diversion between the two continues, which one is lying about the next move. My gut says hgd is telling the truth and we are going for a ride down in the miner. Those interested my marker for gld is 117.74, anything below gold is in trouble.

    Mustang Sally

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