477 thoughts on “THE BIG PICTURE

  1. dboz

    OIL is hitting heavy resistance here for now. If it can break free, there is a lot more upside. Sadly, I gave up on oil the other day. Big mistake, HUGE.

  2. Nada

    Good morning Mustang Sally. Your marker is being tested again this morning. Let’s see what she does. GL cowgirl.

  3. Spanky

    Just BTFD in the stock market. You can’t lose.

    The Fed knows the next stock market crash will end their Ponzi, which is why it will never be allowed to happen. They’ve got every CB on earth backing them up too.

    At worst you will see sideways to up consolidations lasting no more than 1 year. I doubt we will ever see a correction of much more than 10% at this point, because everyone reflexively buys the dip now, and even that potential drawdown can be minimized by just buying on red days. Everyone knows the Fed, BoJ, SNB etc etc will step in if there is the slightest bit of panic.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll disagree on one point. When the bubble pops they won’t be able to prevent it from deflating, and any attempt to do so will just increase capital flowing into the commodity markets.

      1. Spanky

        Why not? The Fed, BoJ or whoever else has a printing press will just step in and put an infinite bid under SPX futures.

        In any event, I think this will be a managed ramp. The Fed is fully cognizant of people shouting bubble at this point, whatever they say. That’s why I think we will see either extremely short but violent corrections followed by an upwards consolidation, or just sideways consolidations for as long as necessary for the MAs to catch up. Like I said, you can minimize the pain of any prolonged consolidation by just buying on red days only.

  4. Christian

    I’m re-posting this for Gary.. just want your perspective 🙂

    “Gary — If you believe that Gold’s ICL has already been struck and since you’re currently sitting on the sidelines. When would you plan on getting back into the Miners? During Gold’s half cycle low? Or would you wait for a deeper correction..?”

    1. Nada

      If it was the ICL, it was the most gentle one I have come across. However, its 2017 and gold has been very kind to the bulls.

      1. Christian

        It’s not totally unusual — Gold delivered a very mild ICL during the baby bull phase.

    2. Gary Post author

      If I become convinced that the dollar isn’t going to rally and that the ICL was struck eariler this month then I would re enter metals.

      But I just don’t see this being an easy trade while stocks go through their final bubble phase.

      The easy money will be int the stock market.

      The metals will have their day in the sun but I think it’s probably going to have to wait for the bubble to pop.

    1. Spanky

      You can’t trust any move the day of the FOMC, You have to at least wait till end of the week or even next week to see how it will be digested.

  5. Christian

    Myself.. I wouldn’t be surprise if Gold delivers another high first before rolling over. Daily RSI/Stochastics are starting to show some divergence.

  6. Gary Post author

    So far it looks like I was right. The FOMC meeting is not going to turn the dollar back up and the metal shorts are getting punched in the face. At this point I’d say the dip was a HCL and gold is about to print a right translated cycle.

    1. Nada

      Probably too early to call, but the dollar has not made a lower low today. It’s on the verge though, any minute now..

    2. Spanky

      This is pretty weird. WIth the ECB and BoJ standing pat, the Fed reducing its balance sheet should be sending the USD much much higher.

      There has to be something else looming that only insider know about, like possibly the BoJ actually tightening. There is also Jackson Hole in late August.

      Either that or today is simply a headfake and the USD is about to bounce.

      1. Nada

        Well, they were dovish on inflation too. It seems now gold rises on hikes and no hikes. Strong move by the miners and the Euro is going ape shit again.

      2. Gary Post author

        I did point out that during the last two bear markets the dollar just sliced right through the 200 WMA and kept on going.

        Someone the other day said I was expecting it to be different this time (meaning that the dollar would bounce). I responded that on the contrary I was afraid it might be the same this time and the dollar would just continue to crash and trade right through the 200.

          1. Gary Post author

            Normally I would be willing to make that same bet. The intermediate cycle is 63 weeks long for goodness sake. But when I looked at what happened during the last two bear markets I had to reconsider. The currencies are controlled by central banks. They no longer respond to cycle or sentiment forces.

            So I’m not at all convinced the dollar will bounce until sentiment gets much more extreme.

        1. Nada

          Well lets not get ahead of ourselves. The dollar has not crashed through the 200wma as of yet. We both know that gold going up or down on an event like today is a coin toss.

  7. Spanky

    Newmont is sending GDX upwards. GDX is outperforming my silver miners today, which for me is not particularly encouraging in terms of the health of any rally from here.

      1. Christian

        Agree — Miners could pull a fast one and surprise everyone! I’ve seen it.

        Give it a day or two for things to settle and/or resume.

        1. Spanky

          totally agree. But i would think the silver miners would be trouncing the large caps gold miners if this was truly signficant low.

  8. Christian

    I’ve been saying this for a while now.. but I think the EURO will tag the 200WMA first before rolling over into a correction.

    And I think GDX will tag the underside of the falling trendline before rolling over as well.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/VPw424W9/

    That being said.. if I’m wrong, then I’ll be happy to switch gear and go long 🙂

  9. Gary Post author

    I predict this move in metals is going to do some serious damage to many portfolios. The move is going to be large and if one is on the wrong side it’s going to cost them big.

    The bulls are sure the move will be up and are stubbornly long.

    The bears are sure the move will be down and are stubbornly short.

    Whoever chooses correct is going to make a lot of money.

    Those that end up on the wrong side are going to lose a lot of money.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’ve pointed out before that many rallies have started and progressed on light volume. Low volume isn’t an absolute requirement for a successful rally. It’s usually a good sign but not a perfect tool.

          If you pass on a rally because the volume is light you would have missed some of the great rallies in history.

          1. Bluebellkid

            As a matter of fact EVERY bull market/uptrend has started with a Rally and then a Confirmation (and there are requirements for these and volume is the key element). Now, every rally/confirmation does not lead to a bull market but again no bull market has ever started without a rally/confirmation – that is a fact!

          2. Bluebellkid

            We are already in a confirmed uptrend as far as the overall stock market is concerned. The question now is whether this hold true for the miners and I don’t know of any way to gauge that other than if the price/volume action.

    1. Nada

      Gary if the signs were so clear, why didn’t you jump in a metals trade before FOMC? Ahhh.. Not clear enough to put money on it, huh? 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        There’s no rush. Intermediate rallies usually last 3-4 months. I already got the first part of this one. And I’ll catch the next 2-3 months if this does turn out to be a final YCL.

        1. Spanky

          True, but a 3-4 month rally might come down to a dozen key trading days (probably less) in which price spikes. That exact thing happened in 2016. If you weren’t onboard for something like 10 key up days, you missed the majority of move.

      2. Nada

        You are doing exactly what you were complaining about on the blog; You are touting with the luxury of hindsight. You were on the sidelines and now you acting like you made some great call. Let’s keep it real 🙂

        1. Gary Post author

          Hardly. I’ve been very clear that I am on the sidelines waiting to see if the FOMC meeting was going to trigger the YCL in the dollar.

          I even did an entire article showing that the dollar didn’t behave as expected during the last two bear markets.

          I’m perfectly happy to not be either long or short today. Sure I’m going to miss a 2% rally in GDX or 6% rally in NUGT. But I won’t take a 6% loss in DUST.

          Like I said there’s lots and lots of rally left if this is the bottom and I already caught a nice move off the bottom so I’m only going to miss a little bit this week.

          This is what I want to expose with the contest. Anyone can get lucky and have a string of winning trades. They can even be skillful and have a string of winning trades. That’s not what I’m interested in. What I want to see is how much you lose when you miss. And if the winners outweigh the losers.

          As I’ve pointed out you can win 90% of the time and still lose money over time. It’s not about winning percentage, it’s about making, and more importantly keeping your gains over time.

  10. KHT

    Mean while back at the ranch, the USD is heading for a date with Miss April `16. Things will get intersting.

  11. Bluebellkid

    I figured the Fed’s would be Dovish and that would be good for the metals/miners but I wasn’t confident to put any money on it. Gary is right – there will be time to get on board if this move is real.

        1. cazabrujas

          Or…. you could just follow Gary’s advice and get into the Nasdaq and take advantage of the parabolic move.

        1. Nada

          Don, if it closes above 1265, then I will believe we have something different on our hands. Until then, its suspect.

    1. Steffmeister

      Congrats TraderPete ! Yes I’ve nailed it since 7th of July so far. I hope we are on a run here!

  12. Bluebellkid

    It appears volume is kicking in and at the close we will probably see a big addition to GDX.

  13. allthatglitters

    Just e-mailed Gary new contest entry 50% in on JDST @ 63.38. Should have waited 10 minutes and bought 3 bucks cheaper lol.

    Still joyfully holding the ERX I bought 2 bucks ago. That one sank the day I bought it too. 🙂

  14. Steffmeister

    Nice bounce … in Gold 🙂 a lot of noise here today. I’m waiting for early August.

    1. Steffmeister

      Hmmm if we close above 1265 for a couple of days I may not need to wait for early August, I am already long miners since 7th of July …

      1. Gary Post author

        If you were in the challenge we could verify whether you really bought back on July 7th….

        We don’t accept these kind of hindsight trades here anymore.

        Everyone has to play by the same rules as I do. Real time trades only.

        1. Steffmeister

          Not interested!

          It’s only important to myself. I’ve built up my GDXJ – Steffmeister since summer solstice.

          21miners – 1 🙂

    1. Spanky

      This is the easiest point to go long (unleveraged) because your stop would be a very very important layer of support.

  15. Jimsee

    holding 50% short gold against 1270/jul 28th. no rush here…in real life u never take a large position w/o an option hedge.

  16. Spanky

    We’ll see how the day closes, but I am a little underwhelmed by the performance in the silver miners, relatively speaking. Like I said, I would expect that at a true inflection point, silver miners should massively outperform big cap gold miners. To me this suggests this daily cycle could be underwhelming, or this could be a sucker’s rally.

  17. Bob

    I’m now expecting USD to hit it’s 50% Fib at 91.36 or 61.8% Fib at 88.46. Should be an exciting price on gold at that point.

  18. allthatglitters

    I’m going to be a real contrarian here and say without any ifs ands or buts that no way in hell was that an ICL for the metals. Overall sentiment still too much giddyness for the precious metal rocketship to the moon. The sentiment that we saw in energy is what an ICL actually feels like, nothing but hopelessness.

    1. Spanky

      At some point gold has to start acting like its in an actual bull market. One of the simplest things for a bull to do is to maintain a flat to rising 20 WMA and for price to never drop too far below that MA on corrections. In a bull, the 20 WMA is always a good time to buy, even if price goes a bit lower. Gold is currently fighting a battle its flattening 20 WMA.

  19. Spanky

    All that being said, the weekly bollingers (20,2) across almost all PM charts and ratio charts are at multiyear if not multi decade narrow widths. That doesn’t necessarily speak to an imminent explosion, as they coould remain relatively narrow for some time, but one is surely coming by the end of this year at the latest. And it will be a sustained trend.

  20. Bluebellkid

    The upper Bollinger Band for JNUG is not opening up at all and appears to be heading down as JNUG shoot up a $1.70 – that is not a good sign.

    1. Spanky

      It didn’t tag the upper band today (20,2), which is fine. Upward follow through by end of week could easily bend the band upwards. Overall, nothing positive or negative to to really take away from the bollingers on the daily chart IMO.

  21. jacob2

    Gold, keep track of insider buys. Love to get excited about buying a bunch of miners as cot and seasonal strength linning up…. But….the lack of any significant insider buying ( mostly selling ) keeps me sitting on my hands.

    1. Nada

      Yep, added another 40% of portfolio 27.22. Giddy up. LOL, its a paper trading contest – why not!

      1. Gary Post author

        Maybe paper trading but still real time calls.

        That’s what I want. Real time calls to see who can actually make real money, and more importantly, keep it over time. Everyone is going to have to play by the same rules I do. No one is going to have the luxury of hindsight trading anymore.

        We’re going to see who amongst you really makes money, and when you lose, if you give back all of your gains.

  22. Spanky

    Gold is making a large outside day up today on the daily chart. The key will be taking out today’s high as to the sustainability of today’s move. If, however, the bears could manage to take out today’s low by tomorrow, it will have been nothing but a bull trap today.

    Never say never.

  23. Spanky

    OK, my AXU is popping into the close, which is encouraging. I have gotten so used to headfakes over the last year it isn’t funny. Weekly bollingers on this one in particular are extremely tight. I am conditioned now to be skeptical of every rally. We’ll see…

  24. Ed

    Only fools believe what clueless Yellen says.
    The market figured that out. She was bluffing. There isn’t going to be Fed balance sheet unloading. That goes with BOJ ECB. They will hold those assets as long as they can. And one day they will go “Boink” and disappear like a magic. 🙂

    1. Spanky

      Man, I used to be 1000% confident of the same, but I also said the same exact thing about interest rates and QE back in 2009.

      Lo and behold, they not only stopped QE (something I didn’t think was possible), they actually raised interest rates (again, didn’t think it was possible without crashing the markets). My thesis, at least as far as monetary policy, has been dead wrong since 2012. Also, look at commodity prices. The index is at 50 year lows. Relative to stocks they are at all time lows and going lower by the day. Who would of thought that was possible with all the big CBs absolutely blowing up their balance sheets? Unreal.

  25. Pedestrian

    Gold is posting a nice outside daily reversal today. So is the dollar. We will see if today’s little gold bounce holds or was just a lure before the next decline. There is no change to my outlook. No damage to the chart at the daily level. I think this rise will quickly reverse itself.

    1. Spanky

      Could be for sure a headfake. How many times have we seen this with the metals and miners in an around FOMC days?

      That being said, gold is now above its flattening 20 WMA, which in turn is above the 50 WMA, and the weekly bollinger bands are now more than narrow enough to support a sustained run to the upside. The upwardly pointing weekly stochastics are also bullish (not even close to overbought). If you are short here, you are extremely brave.

      1. Pedestrian

        Nope, neither short or long. Just watching from the sidelines for the time being. No plans to get back in until September when summer holidays end and all the traders come back.

  26. Spanky

    The whole there’s “plenty of time to get on board” excuse is simply untrue even in multimonth uptrends. For example, the entire 7 month rally in GDX–the vertical price component–came down to something like 10 trading days. If you were out for one of those days, you missed a huge chunk of the rally and were forced to sit through a consolidation if you decided to buy back in at some point.

    The bottom line is, the best time to take a position is before a trend is set. Even better is during a lenghty tightening consolidation–just like now. Set a stop just under the consolidation. every day you wait, your risk just goes up.

    1. Gary Post author

      One can’t miss 2 months of a rally and expect to make money, but one day isn’t going to kill your chances of making money over a 3-4 month rally.

      1. Spanky

        Not saying you can’t make money, but I stand by my point that the lowest risk entry by far is at the apex of a super tight consolidation (just like we have now in GDX and many individual miners). I’m not saying go wild and use leverage, but at least take a position. if the lower trendline breaks, stop out and just wait to buy back when price gets back over. If that means a whipsaw, so be it. You can stop out again if price breaks down.

        1. dboz

          You assume after one good day we are off to the races. Do you REALLY think it is that easy? As some others pointed out, the volume is still not there. All that tells me as there really aren’t a lot of sellers. They have been shaken out for the most part. Gary said it well, positions are dug in and stubborn at this point. Which ever way it goes, there will be a lot to gain and a lot to lose. Better to jump on the train once it left the station than to get on the wrong train heading the other direction. Nothing confirmed just a decent move after weeks of basic stagnation. It was basically a rogue wave in my mind. If we get follow through and another 10% JUNG move tomorrow, well then maybe we are leaving.

          And yes, I agree, much riskier to buy up high and risk getting whipsawed on pullbacks. HOWEVER, if it truly is launch mode, pullbacks should be brief and mild as more want to board than get off. So IF we have a decent pullback here it is still time to be cautious of another BULL TRAP in the making!

          1. dboz

            I sold JNUG over a week ago for $18.21. Barely closed above that today. Sure, I wish I would have scooped up some shares in the AM today but the daily looked iffy. This could just be over enthusiasm from the BUGS and could reverse tomorrow. Seen it 3-4 times now after these meetings.

          2. Spanky

            Re-read my post. I absolutely do not 100% believe we are off to the races after 1 day.

            Long *or* short, this zone is the lowest risk entry with the easiest stop you can make (in at least 10 years) due to the ridiculously tight consolidation. GDX is right on its flat 20 WMA as of today and the bollingers are ridiculously tight. It’s also bumping right up against its declining 50 WMA this week. Grow a pair and take a position. :] (without leverage)

            The 2016 rally, although 10 trading days made up the move, I would say the majority of the move was made up by probably 5 trading days! The rest of the time was consolidation. Now tell me how easy it is to make money using 3X ETFs when 98% of the time is spent in sideways churn. You will get whipsawed for sure even if you are right about the trend. Decay will eat at your gains too.

      2. m0ntana

        It isn’t a sure thing Gary. Exactly what you told your subs last Sept and we all know how that went.

        1. Gary Post author

          There certainly is no sure thing in the metals.

          I’m willing to bet pretty heavily though that stocks are now into their bubble phase.

          1. jake

            Excellent market wrap up.

            Looks like the Fed has backed off the 3 planned rate hikes for the year, and is intent on inflating to deal with the debt.

            There might be a nice reaction set up tomorrow to the knee jerk In miners today.

  27. dboz

    So a lot of good opinions in here today. Here is mine.

    The metals are once again teasing that they are going to break out. Regardless, I think we will see another pullback. I am like GARY here. PLENTY of time to board the train if things start getting really bullish. The 1 and 4hr charts on JNUG were the only clue to today and with the FOMC it could have easily done the opposite. One thing I know is that these big rallies tend to reverse the next day and sometimes heavily. No positions in metals right now. Just remember we are still only in the $4 range pre split for JNUG. I was buying JNUG at $7. There are those still stuck from $23, which would take a run up to $90 to bail out. So from 18 to 90 there is a lot of time to get on board and make money.

    The market looks like it is ready for some degree of pullback. Not a crash. I am patiently waiting to try to cash in with a TVIX position that is remarkably stable right now which also bodes to an upsurge in volatility coming.

    The dollar could just keep falling and test the 91 zone.

    OIL is looking like it is consolidating for a possible run through the resistance zone. If we go above 49, I think mid 50’s is doable. Not sure we go higher here though.

    Natural Gas is looking to be poised for a good run up here also. The pullback was deep, sudden and severe. I caught me off guard. Today may have been the low for a while. We will see tomorrow money with the draw report. I am deeply concerned but expect a launch out of it. If it rolls over, it is going to be ugly for me.

  28. dboz

    The biggest issue I have with the miners/metals is that SILVER is just not doing a heck of a lot. We are still in the 16’s! It’s amazing the miners are doing as good as they are at this point. It may just be lagging, but I believe the rally more credible when SILVER leads. That said, the launch in copper may be the tell here. I think Gary mentioned it above.

  29. Bluebellkid

    Posted this on the other thread about Facebook
    EPS % change for the last year for FB: Sales % change:
    + 233 +52
    +212 +59
    +190 +56
    +124 +51
    +73 +49

  30. dboz

    As of today. Copper seems a little over zealous.

    Crude 48.0
    Nat Gas 30.0
    Gold 34.0
    Silver 36.0
    Platinum 38.0
    Palladium 83.0
    Copper 91.0

  31. zbigkid

    Forecast the direction and amount of REAL interest rates (short term) and you got gold nailed.

    1. gold is tied to low real interest rates which are often the by-product of inflation [not inflation, per se]…
    2. when real rates are low, the price of gold can rise very, very rapidly.
    3. when real rates are high, gold can fall very, very quickly.
    4. there is no relationship between equity prices and gold (like the Dow-to-gold ratio).
    5. the TIPs yield curve indicates that low real rates may last for a few more years.
    6. the price of gold is essentially political. If a central banker has the will to raise real rates as Volcker did 30 years ago, then the price of gold can be crushed.

    Conclusion

    In effect, gold acts like a highly leveraged short position in U.S. Treasury bills and the breakeven point is 2%.

    1. jake

      Now to show how ridiculous the rate increase vs. alleged gold market reaction is, let’s now take a longer term look. Instead of making this boring, and going thru each wildly inaccurate claim about the effects on gold of interest rate increases, let’s just focus on gold in three prominent rate increase cycles, and also one rate decrease cycle. From February 1971 to July 1974, the Fed raised rates a huge 10% points. And gold rallied about 5x up to around $200. Interest rate increases are bearish for gold, right? And then gold fell to $102 in August 1976 during the next rate decrease cycle, even though rates dropped a huge 8% points during that time. Rate decreases are bullish for gold, right? And then gold rallied to the bubble high of $875 in January, 1980. And, you guessed it, ratesincreased substantially that whole time. Rate increases are bearish for gold, right? And more recently, rates went up from 1.25% in June 2003 to 5.25% in June 2006 . And you guessed it, gold doubled during that time. Rate increases are bearish for gold, right?

      https://theentrypoints.com/the-entry-points-market-blog/interest-rate-increases-are-bearish-for-gold-revisited/

  32. Bluebellkid

    From IBD’s The Big Picture:
    It’s not that often when you see gold miners, chip-equipment firms, TV and radio companies, and meat suppliers all together lead the market’s upside. But that was sort of the session for stocks Wednesday.
    Gains of more than 1.5% for each of the above industry groups offset sharp selling in select health care, education, transportation equipment, hospital and steel companies, leaving the major indexes with tiny gains by day’s end. Crude oil and gold prices advanced as the U.S. dollar languished. As for the Nasdaq composite, the index’s tiny gain and close in the lower half of the intraday range, combined with higher turnover, resulted in its first stalling day in months. Stalling is a rare form of distribution, or unusually thick institutional selling.
    The recent jump in the euro vs. the U.S. dollar (hitting as high as $1.17 per euro, up from as low as $1.04 per euro back in December) may not be of pertinent interest to investors amid the tsunami of quarterly results coming in each day this week, but it’s still worth keeping your eyes on some of the latest movements in other important asset classes and financial markets.
    The recent jump in West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures is noteworthy, but right now you are not seeing many energy-related companies breaking out of solid bases. Sure, a handful of solar stocks have popped higher. But they are clearly in the minority.
    Ditto for gold miners. However, a few are trying to break out of their long-term downtrends. Newmont Mining (NEM) staged a second day in a row of strong gains in heavy turnover, rebounding sharply above the 50- and 200-day moving averages. The stock is perhaps forming a long second-stage base. Newmont, which is the largest company in IBD’s Mining-Gold/Silver industry group in terms of market cap at $19 billion, cleared a first-stage bottoming-base pattern near 28 in the spring of 2016. Shares rallied as much as 64% before cooling off.
    The gold mining group is currently ranked a lowly 141st out of 197 industry groups for six-month relative performance; see the entire daily rankings here, or by going to Data Tables inside the Stock Lists section at Investors.com.
    Keep in mind that it will take a lot more inflation before institutional investors deploy more capital in the commodity-related sectors of the equity markets. In one sense, both oil and other commodities are still digesting the enormous run-ups witnessed from 2002 to 2007 and in the early part of the 2010s.

    1. Gary Post author

      There hasn’t been one distribution day in the Nasdaq since it completed the ICL 3 weeks ago.

      I have my doubts we are seeing a significant top right now. We may drop into a half cycle low but even that is iffy. Coming out of a larger ICL markets often fail to deliver a HCL during the first daily cycle.

  33. dboz

    Yeah, but at least a 1-3% pullback once in a while? Heck even a 10%. We never get a sentiment reset in the SM.

  34. HomerJ

    I hope BIGDADDY covered his shorts on Facebook and Netflix…. Shorting a stock because you think ” it is a fad that will die out eventually” is the worst reason you can have, and thinking the director is selling shares will collapse the stock is probably second worse – namely because you have NO IDEA why insiders are selling. In case.

    In case you missed it, Facebook is up on earnings, should continue upside on Thursday. FOR FUCK’S SAKE BIGDADDY THEY HAVE 1.32 BILLION USERS, that’s like 15% OF THE FUCKING PLANET’S POPULATION….

      1. HomerJ

        Just a correction, 1.32 billion was the DAILY AVERAGE number of users in June, while the MONTHLY AVERAGE is 2.01 billion.

  35. Ed

    Forget about inflation deflation, stagflation, disinflation, interest rate hike QE QT. None of these really matter. Even if they matter we will never figure out which one will matter in which way. Personally, I think we are in “Shrinkflation.” That is we spend same amount of money for less in quantity and less in quality if that happened to be a service product. Someone used this word in one of Zerohedge article, I believe it best describe our current economic situation. None of us will ever really know what economic shit hole we are in. So from here on I won’t look at anything else but in two. Those are US Dollar and USD only. I am only interested in trading in GDX, GDXJ, JNUG and NUGT. So nothing else matter except US Dollar.
    So what do think? Are we gonna have USD index at 80s sometime next few month or what?
    This is something Gary can’t help. He professed few times in the past that he does not trade currency.
    Any currency enthusiasts in house?

  36. Ed

    Can you still use cyclical technical analysis to spot the DCL, HCL, ICL, YCL? Are there any other TA tools currency trader uses?

    1. Pedestrian

      This is still a bear market in precious metals. As long as we remain in a bear market then 1180 (and even lower), remain possibilities we need to consider. Nobody really wants to hear that naturally. The expectation at this time is the slow season in metals is near an end and the next leg up will soon get underway. The belief is that this year will finally see gold break out of its long decline and turn the bear back to a bull. Indeed, I am seeing life appear in mining stock recently. But that makes sense actually. It defies logic that this ongoing bull market in global stock markets has still not found its way into the mining sphere to any great extent. And its even more preposterous that some loved companies can sport idiotic P/E ratios while some gold stock still trades at toilet gutter prices. But I don’t get to make the rules on this subject. All I can say is that miners *should* start catching a serious bid this year if gold even makes a feeble attempt at a real breakout. But will we see 1180 before 1450? Maybe. That’s a mere 85 dollars below where we trade this morning and the next leg lower could easily see us there during August. I am counting on it actually once this current rise peters out and comes to an end. Surprises remain to the downside until further notice.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold hasn’t been in a bear market since December 2015. If it had been then it would have made a lower low a long time ago.

        Wake up and smell the coffee.

        1. Pedestrian

          Good grief Gary, you have been saying that since January 2016 but have you bothered to go back and review some of the charts that should be telling you otherwise? Like the weekly JNUG for example.

          Take a long look and get back to me on that bull theory of yours.

          Because this chart (split adjusted) tells quite a different story. You can’t just *say* something is in a bull when facts tell us otherwise. The bull thesis is really subjective and full of holes in any case. At least when I call this a bear I can back it up with technical facts.

          JNUG since September 2015….Oh look!, it went parabolic and crashed back to Earth again. Guess it wasn’t a buy and hold after all.
          http://www.finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=JNUG&ty=c&ta=0&p=w

          1. Gary Post author

            You can’t seriously base your expectations on a triple leveraged fund???

            There is decay in the leveraged funds during periods when they go against the trend.

            This is stuff everyone knows. Only a rank amateur would bother with technicals on a triple leveraged fund.

            Look at GDX and tell me if it is holding well above the 2015 lows.

            Look at the weekly chart of GDX and tell me if it is holding above a flattening 200 week moving average.

  37. allthatglitters

    With all the rocket fuel the Fed supposedly just pumped into gold, it’s still riding the struggle bus to not get swatted down from current resistance. I think an actual ICL for gold is ahead of us, not the make believe ICL everyone and their dog now thinks we’re rocketing out of.

  38. mustang sally

    Good morning Gold Bugs,, Well lets pop the champagne and start spending the new found money , Does yesterday charade change the picture some do. To me a real trend change or reversal happens on a day when the circust is not playing, My dust marker got broken but hgd did not , So for me were still in for a surprise that will move it down, We wait to see the tide after the wave of the cirucus. I am with Gary with the USd needs to get a movin.

    Still in the game with dusty;s friend

    Mustang Sally

  39. Gary Post author

    I think we are starting to get inflation in everything like I predicted.

    The fastest rise will be in the stock market as that’s where the first bubble will form, but commodities will start to rise as well and once the bubble in stocks pop then the commodity markets especially gold will go crazy.

  40. zkotpen

    Ped,

    I tend to agree. You may recall I mentioned a long time ago that “wave C of triangle is often a double zig zag”?

    Last week, I posted two examples of triangles, drawn according to Elliott’s techniques. One was for GDX, the other for EURUSD. The GDX triangle was wave 4 of the first zig zag in this smaller triangle, which preceded wave 5, which ended Friday, to complete that zig zag. That was followed by 3 waves correction — X — and then would likely be followed by five waves up. I posted my “target” of 23.87 — one penny above the June peak. That target sounds a little silly, but the point is, it is quite possible, if not likely, that miners are working toward a marginally higher high than the one from June. That will embolden the bulls. Even Gary is starting to get ebullient 🙂

    But bulls will likely get roasted at that time. The move down will be wave D, which will leave the bears similarly perplexed as they expect DUST to take off to the moon — but it does not. Then another little bounce to wave E, by which time everybody will be baffled.

    Then the move down into the ICL can proceed.

    Something like that.

    1. Gary Post author

      Instead of posting all this mumbo jumbo just enter the challenge and let’s see if you actually make any money.

      1. mustang sally

        Gary , could not agree with you more, I have asked you if you could post the paricipant in your on line bingo, this may help the forum.

        Sally

        1. Gary Post author

          There are 36 participants so far. I don’t see the need to post everyone’s name.

          1. Gary Post author

            Because I don’t feel like writing out 36 names, and some people may not want their real name posted on the blog.

          2. Christian

            Why no real names Dboz? What are you afraid of?!

            I love how people need to hide behind their online bullshit made up name, Lol!

            I posted my REAL NAME you platypus 🙂

      2. Nada

        You are wasting your time, Gary. He will not enter, that would end the charade. If you have not noticed, talking mumbo jumbo is his speciality.

  41. butch

    After reading Bluebellkids comments about moving averages I have adapted and went long on gold. I learn fast . 20% of bankroll on December 1300 Call options. The 50 day is above the 200 day moving average and gold is above the 50 day SMA. The triangles have the required 4 connecting points which is all that is required for a upside breakout.
    Thank you Kid

    Sincerely,

    Cowboy Butch

  42. Gary Post author

    FWIW. gold is not acting like a weak fourth or fifth daily cycle. Those almost never deliver a big move like yesterday and follow through today this late in the daily cycle. This is acting like a first daily cycle in a new intermediate degree advance.

    Like I said yesterday when the move happens it will be big and those stubbornly on the wrong side of the market are going to take a big hit.

    Those on the right side of the market are going to make a lot of money.

    Meanwhile the Nasdaq just keeps chugging higher and higher. 10,000 will be a piece of cake.

  43. mustang sally

    Hello Ped:
    I am with you on around 1180, but if it gets down there, they are going to cap at 1200, this will be the start of the move to the basement.

    And Gary, which side are you on or are you on the sidelines coaching.

  44. Goild

    Good morning,

    I would guess that Gary’s side is long as he has said it is his strength.
    He does not play short.

    Let us make money tonite.

  45. Gary Post author

    Big bear markets damage investor sentiment to the point where it becomes very difficult to see the market from a bullish perspective.

    Perfect case in point. Stocks have been in one of the most aggressive bull markets in history over the last 8 years, but because the last bear market was so destructive many people are still looking for the the next crash.

    The bear market in gold and especially miners was one of the most destructive in history. As we’ve seen it has made it virtually impossible for many to see the bullish case for gold. We are almost two years into a new bull market and yet many are still in denial and looking for sub $1000 gold.

    This is what bear markets do. They make it almost impossible for most traders to see the turn and it’s many months or even years before they finally realize that a new bull market has begun.

    1. mustang sally

      Thanks Gary, for clarify your position,, now lets not change your verbage when the bear grabs you.

      Mustang Sally

      1. Bluebellkid

        Gary hasn’t always been so big on the stock market – that bear he just told us about damaged his sentiment as well and kept him on the sidelines a long time.

        1. Gary Post author

          Nonsense. I’ve been bullish on the stock market since 2010. I even called the bottom one day after the final low at 666. (it took one day for the swing to form).

          At first I expected a normal 4 year cycle. But it quickly became evident that long term cycles were evolving due to QE into a 7 year cycle.

          Not once did I ever think the 7 YCL was a new bear market.

          1. m0ntana

            Gary,
            Admit when you’re wrong! Like last night telling people to get in to metals trade ha

          2. Gary Post author

            The day has barely even started. The miners haven’t even given back half of yesterday’s gain. How can you possibly know how the day will end?

    2. Pedestrian

      Two years into a bull?

      Back in 2013 gold hit 1260 dollars and here we are 50 months later and gold is back at 1260 dollars again!!! If you look at the weekly chart you can easily see price is almost literally at the midpoint between the highs and lows of that time period. Call it sideways trading at best. But there sure as heck has not been a bull started yet. And the monthly chart channel on gold is still indicating that lower prices are coming.

  46. MattyMan

    Long time since I posted, but I have been following along, and usually prefer to just take in the points/arguments here…

    Just took a look at the weekly charts though and here is what I see:

    EUR/USD – reversing off 200 WMA
    USD/CAD – moving higher off 200 WMA
    USD/JPY – dropped below and recovered 200 WMA
    XAU/USD – might be moving lower after making a “conjoined twin” formation, lol… shoulder-head-head-shoulder… Will the symmetry continue? I think 1180 is in the cards at least anyways…

  47. bluelagoon

    Weekly GDXJ just went green psar and the charts are looking good. I think it’s safe to target at least $34.98 if not $36.62. We haven’t had a green psar since Jan 2017. In addition – XAU is 50MA with STO seemingly with lots of room to go. Last – as I mentioned before – August is seasonally strong for gold. This doesn’t mean it happens every year but when the charts line up with seasonality – you can have more confidence.

  48. bluelagoon

    Is anyone watching biotech? I mentioned I thought LABD was in for a bounce or change in direction – I think it’s happening…I’d put a stop at he last low of $5.60.

  49. m0ntana

    Told you Gary. It looks like yesterday’s move in miners was manufactured to unload shares.

  50. bluelagoon

    Isn’t today a bigger day than the usual gas report for NG? Contract rollover after today? Usually creates some big moves.

  51. dboz

    10 minutes away from finding out if Natty Gas is going to sink or fly. Nervous but expecting to fly.

  52. JJHarmen

    The negativity towards gold and the miners among the resident experts here (Pedestrian, MS, Christian) is about as strong as it gets. I just added to my GDX position buying [email protected] 22.76

  53. zkotpen

    Gary

    “Instead of posting all this mumbo jumbo just enter the challenge and let’s see if you actually make any money.”

    Hard to imagine you posting such a thing Gary, especially when:

    1. My posts are relevant and original. And they have been quite accurate, especially since last September.

    2. You, for some reason, have found it necessary to respond — free of charge — to the inquiries of the Toxic Schmoozer (Robert), who adds zero value, is a photocopy machine (not even sure if he’s human). That’s a thing that makes ya go hmmm? And TS is no dummie — he actually memorizes my forecasts. I thought long and hard about posting the above, because I know he’s lurking in the background, toxically reading it, and probably reciting it verbatim to his friends, in order to sound clever.

    3. Contest is not where I need to be right now. May make money, but won’t be enough to make a living, and I need to form good trading habits, including (1) choosing my own time frame; and (2) having the discipline to calculate a stop loss according to the amount I am willing to lose in the event that I’m wrong — as each losing trade is just one event in a random distribution of events, and one step along the road to the next winning trade.

    If your rules depart from the trading methods I am learning even in the slightest, I cannot practice these for the time being. You’ve got good instincts and plenty of experience. I need to build experience. Actually, I’m surprised you don’t see the value in what I do. Oh well, won’t be the last time, I reckon.

    1. Gary Post author

      For the life of me I can’t make sense of the stuff you post.

      Just enter the contest and let’s see if it makes money.

      1. dboz

        His google translator must take liberties on the conversion. I can’t understand anything he posts either. It’s Nostradamus quatrains.

        1. Bigdaddy

          I just scroll through Zkotpens stuff. Obvious to me that he is from another planet and english is not his native language.

          1. Pedestrian

            Come on you guys. Not every peg fits in the same square hole. Zkotpen is a creative thinker and an artist. I appreciate his posts. Anyway, if we all communicated in exactly the same way would we not all be sheep lined in a row ready for shearing?

            Baaaaa, Baaaaaa, Baaaaa!

            Who needs it.

            So last night I was watching one of those religious shows where the priest(?) is shouting and slapping people on the head (healing them of their sins) and the crowd of people all do the exact same damn thing and fall over backwards shouting and screaming to Jesus.

            I am healed! I am healed!!!!

            I could NOT stop laughing. I was thinking “look at those idiot sheep” since they all believe SO hard in the experience that they completely lose their personal identity and start behaving exactly like every other idiot who is also being healed by a conman.

            And it made me think of events like the mass delusion of the crowds frantically buying houses in the US at the peak in 2006 as not being all that different than the madness of a population turning against its own people as in Stalinist Russia or the Rwanda massacres.

            People are so weak minded and susceptible sometimes and so easily swayed by what others are doing that even preposterous and insane acts can seem normal if everyone else agrees.

            So I can’t agree with any of you in your criticism of Zkot because he is clearly an individual thinking for himself and not part of the idiot crowd of copy cats who just mindlessly repeat the same stupid thing day after day while pretending to be imparting knowledge to other sheep.

    2. Robert

      Even Gary is sick of reading your ramblings. You need to get a life zkot u have way too much time on your hands. Get a hobby instead of writing Epistles on a blog everyday. Go write a book since u love ranting. Everyone here is tired of ur crap, what value do u offer it’s just taking up too much space. Try to write a few lines instead of paragraphs. Of course u won’t enter the competition bc you probably don’t even trade

  54. zkotpen

    Nada —

    Pendejo… pendejito!

    If you were a little smarter, like your keemosahbee, The Toxic Schmoozer, you’d be followin’ my forecasts. After all, you seem to be pretty good at trading. If you weren’t lost in your own self-importance and jealousy, you’d realize that what I’ve written could lift your win-loss percentage on your trades. And if it improves just a little bit, you know that could help your bottom line — perhaps significantly.

    But alas, you get caught up in your left brain, and you can’t help yourself but… be a pendejito! You chose the wrong Spanish word, mate — close, but alas… Pendejo!

    1. Nada

      Lol, looks like I got into someones feelings. zkotpen, you took your first trade what, last week? My god man, now you think folks should be listening to your analysis of the markets? That might be possible if you could get your point across. How many people here have stated that they have no idea what you are saying?

      You spend great effort in trying to make yourself sound educated, but you are missing the mark. Just enter the contest so we can see how smart you really are.

      1. zkotpen

        Nada,

        Plain and simple: Your trading skills seem pretty solid. Your market analysis could use work, in reducing uncertainty, rather than compensating for it.

        But first you’ve got to get out of your head and lose that self-importance. You’re getting in your own way, and stubbornly refusing to admit it.

        Good luck to ya!

        1. Nada

          @zkotpen Morning. Look, I really do not want to waste energy arguing with you. I think you need to work on how you present your ideas is all. For god’s sake, let the issue with Robert go. I am not sure what you are referring to in regards to being stubborn. I have been clear with my thoughts on gold and the dollar. In regards to self-importance, thats a stretch – as I have none! I have never portrayed myself as a big roller and I think humility is this most important factor in trading; That’s why I am annoyed with gloating and folks “thinking” they know what they market is going to do with certainty. In short, good luck and I hope I can see more of your real time trades.

  55. Bigdaddy

    I am not rattled by Facebook’s big up day. In fact, I shorted another 300 shares at 175.02 . Cool as a cucumber. Shorting a stock at highs and waiting for it to go down is just like buying stocks at lows and waiting for it to go up. (I read that somewhere).

    1. Bluebellkid

      FB’s 50 day average volume is 18.1 mm. In the first hour and a half it has traded over 26 mm and stock is up over $9/share as I type – Bigdaddy you are going to get decimated on this trade.

  56. jake

    Bluebell what do you think about Dr. copper at resistance here, is it going to lead the complex higher?

    1. dboz

      Yes, and could top and send the whole thing right back down. This could have been another huge tease. Will see if we get follow through after this consolidation or turns back down for a retest. THAT is where you make your decision IMO.

    2. Bluebellkid

      Sorry Jake but I have no clue. It appears to be a strong move and right now it is well out of the upper band and getting overbought so might pullback in here. If it doesn’t pullback much that would be a good sign the move is for real.

    1. Bluebellkid

      UGAZ is up against the middle BB and 10 dma – a move thru this area is a good place to take a position.

  57. allthatglitters

    Gold showing all the follow through today of a wet noodle. Looking forward to the real ICL for precious metals, not the make believe one that everyone inexplicably thinks we just had.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m showing gold is still comfortably positive even with the dollar rallying????

          1. Bluebellkid

            Go to Kitco and download the App for your situation. I have the metals running in real time on the bottom tool bar.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’m showing a closing price yesterday of 1260. Gold is currently at 1263???

  58. bluelagoon

    I’m showing gold at 1258 Gary.

    For all those shorting tech stocks – looks like TWITTER was the one to short.

    1. Nada

      You are looking at spot gold price and Gary is looking has not connected the dots that GC changed contracts.

    1. butch

      Gold is above the 50 day moving average with a bullish COT and 50 day is above the 200. That’s the important stuff

      1. Christian

        Maybe. Let’s see how Gold fares when the dollar starts to bounce out of its YCL, then we can talk about moving averages 🙂

  59. Goild

    My lovely wife took me for dinner today.
    It was about $330. A fancy meat of the best class.
    Luckily I just recovered with +$950.
    Thanks JNUG.
    Time to go to sleep.
    Good trading to all!

    1. Nada

      @Goild

      Why post in hindsight? If you are going to brag everyday, then post entries in real time. If you don’t want to waste your time doing so, then I find it funny that sure do find time to post after the fact. The entire reason Gary created the contest was to stop this type of nonsense.

    2. m0ntana

      Fool and his money will depart soon. I have seen those 26 year kids wannabe wallstreeters brag about their trades and within couple of years they are nowhere found ha

    3. JJHarmen

      Yes Goild, we all know you have a lovely wife and you made money today just like you every other day. Nobody gives a shit. Seriously, you have to stop living in this fantasy. Do you even have a wife?

  60. dboz

    Yep, this happens every time after FOMC. Big surge then bleed off, then crash. So predictable. Amazed that I did not load up heading in with the usual before meeting pullback. Missed a HUGE opportunity. Oh well, it happens.

    1. Americano

      Bitcoin trades more volume now then GLD. Gold moves will only become more muted. I own phys silver from years back & every now & again I like to oooo & ahhh at how shiny it is & it certainly beats USD jammed under the bed
      Good news is that progressively going forward Gold moves won’t be as volatile come FOMC announcements.

  61. allthatglitters

    re: Gold. You can throw a wet noodle up in the air because it happens to be Fedspeak Day, but gravity is going to bring it down. JDST looking good and will look even better when we get to the actual ICL for the precious metals.

  62. bluelagoon

    I’m watching USL. I believe it’s on an uptrend but also think it needs to correct soon. Either here or around the 400dma – will watch for a turn down. Interested in other opinions. Again – Fri – Tues may be turning points for many sectors, let’s watch for them and ride the right side of the trend.

  63. zkotpen

    Nada,

    “If the doors of perception were cleansed, man would see things as they are: Infinite”

    Cleansed? Cleansed of what?

    Of self-importance!

    1. Nada

      Looking good. Can’t happen today as it put in a lower low, but if this is coming our of a YCL it should be a brutal.

    1. Nada

      Lol, very good indeed. The Euro at the 200wma was spot on. Lets just see if the USD can’t start whistling Dixie.

    1. Christian

      The problem is that Gary is somewhat convinced that the Buck will just perpetually drop. I strongly disagree.

      He also noted that Gold was behaving like the first cycle out of an ICL. I kinda agree, it’s suspicious.

      1. Gary Post author

        Well I’m not convinced it will go down forever, but if the dollar has begun another bear market then sentiment can get a whole lot more extreme and stay at those extreme levels for a long time before a significant bounce. As I pointed out the last two bear markets price just sliced right through the 200 WMA.

        Something is definitely wrong. Intermediate cycles should never last 64 weeks.

    1. Nada

      Yes, likesmoney posted an article yesterday called “Miner Suspicion” that referenced the June 6th similarities. Will be very interesting to see how it plays out.

  64. Bigdaddy

    I just bought 500 ULSV at 11.56 It’s a steal at that price. Silver will not stay down for long folks. load up now!

      1. Bigdaddy

        You are welcome! I may sell this one as a day trade because I have plenty of SLV also. but i have to take the dog out for a walk and some rabbit catching exercise. You on your own till i get back.

    1. Bluebellkid

      It’s lunch time – NOT ALWAYS but stocks that are up tend to ease during lunch and stocks that are down tend to move up some – usually between 11:00 – 1:00. It’s how a stock closes the day and more importantly the week that is the tell all.

  65. bluelagoon

    Reviewing the longer term charts – I’m beginning to wonder if we’re at the DCH for gold’s 1st daily cycle.

  66. Don

    After peaking a few weeks ago, the transportation indexes (IYT or DJT) have been deteriorating. That normally doesn’t happen while the S&P marches upward with new highs day after day.

  67. Gary Post author

    BTW the transports cautioned me to take profits on our stock positions at almost the exact top a few minutes ago.

    Maybe we will finally get that long overdue correction in the stock market. We’ll see what tomorrow brings.

    1. Bluebellkid

      I bailed on my AAOI earlier just because it was up $4 and didn’t figure it could keep on – didn’t figure it would lose all of that and then head south.

  68. Gary Post author

    If the markets correct liquidity could flow into gold even if the dollar rises.

    So far the miners are holding above the 50 DMA.

    1. dboz

      Picked up another batch of JNUG thinking the same thing. This could be a pretty steep and rapid decent in the SM. Could give metals a good boost for a week.

    2. m0ntana

      Now gary is throwing justification on his metals trade Ha. Just like last Sept.
      Metals trade is DEAD. It was all in the plan after FOMC for USD to go up.

  69. Goild

    Well, I was going to sleep and thought one more trade…
    To lose the $950, to lose -$1700.
    Then to recover and make $2900.00 on JNUG.

    There are no rules on what to write about here…
    JJ, think about this one:
    The quality of your posts reflects 1:1 the quality of your thinking, and of your trading.

    Let us make money and have fun. I am here for it.

  70. bluelagoon

    Does anyone know what just happened? I knew TQQQ was looking like a top last few days but it looks like it just blew a fuse now.

    This shot gold back up after a bit of a correction – right around my call from this morning. And LABD is also up big time as a result. Seems we’re lined up to go bearish for Aug. as per seasonals – charts and seasonals matching up.

  71. Goild

    Yesterday’s JNUG rising along with GLD was kind of unexpected.
    By tomorrow we may be back down.
    I would be careful with the 3X, especially as USD may bounce any day.

    1. dboz

      Very possible also. Just seeing a setup here that could turn UBER bullish very quickly and fulfill my scenario that we would have a stealth move up, then a rapid explosion in the metals. Catch shorts off guard and catch sidelines watchers needing to chase. I am taking my chances here on that playing out. If not, oh well, regroup and rethink it.

      1. Nada

        Why do you say that? It matters a whole lot. When she turns, the metals will be taken to the woodshed. However, its a if/when.

  72. Goild

    Hey Nada,

    I gather from your posts that you are really talented.
    Look forward to learn from you.

  73. bluelagoon

    Wow – am I ever upset I didn’t get into LABD – best gains out of all the tickers I watch today.

    1. Nada

      Lol, bears are having everything thrown at them with their gold shorts. Now Gary’s precious FED backed SM is having a BTD hiccup. Maybe today is YCL in SM, lol.

  74. Bluebellkid

    This reminds me of June 9th. I was RV’ing on the Frio River and the markets opened up and I was up a little on my positions and we went tubing for a couple of hours and I came back and the markets had reversed and everything I had was down BIG – I was in growth/tech stocks and they took a hit. I haven’t quite recovered all of it but am close and if it weren’t for the GUSH trade the other day would be even closer.

  75. WYSIWYGN

    I gather we will never see that ICL 1180 ever again ?
    Well, thanks, folks for your misleading visions.

  76. palobar

    When God geometrises, the Fed and the PPT know that they have to step aside. I warned you yesterday EXACTLY at the top that we had very strong symmetry. I also suggested that you check my comments on wheat in another forum to understand the importance of the dates I share with with you. And of course, today is JULY 27 (see my previous comment).

    1. Nada

      palobar – Asked yesterday about your dates, not sure of you noticed. Care to provide some details what they are based upon? Telling folks to go to a site and search through forums and hunt down your posts is silly. If you want to share (which you obviously do), then please do and let us know. Cheers

    2. dboz

      I checked them. Why do you have to state your case this way? Rhymes and nuances. Why not just tell us that you saw the start of a big pullback coming starting today? Like ZKOTPEN, you talk in quatrains. Just keep it simple. We will still think you are smart and knowledgeable. You don’t need to impress us with the extravagant. Other than PED and ZKOTPEN, most here are beer drinkers and you are talking in Cristal speak. LOL

  77. bluelagoon

    A few signals just confirmed for me that LABU is heading down – targeting $46-53. I missed the low on LABD last few days but believe early next week will be another opportunity at a good price. I’ll hunt it down – thinking Mon/Tues.

    1. dboz

      Same here. This is a fake out move today. Markets will probably bounce back letting everyone think all is good and secure. Then next week, bottom falls out for a deeper plunge and people won’t react thinking it will bounce right back again. Just a theory, no proof.

  78. Steffmeister

    American indices is due for a correction, we are at a sub wave 3 top. A couple of weeks correction here.

    GOLD: As long as we are above 1236 I am bullish, below bearish.

    Batman ears in Novo Resources, look out below 😛

    1. Steffmeister

      Elliott Wave is a great thing to learn! I am following a Swedish analyst and he is very good at timing waves. I invest my pension funds according to his calls and it’s working out just fine!

  79. WYSIWYGN

    For the last couple of months I follow several websites on gold/silver. One thing for sure: everyone sets his sails to every wind, no one has got a clue (no way !) and some are just guessing and blethering around. Sad people.

    1. Steffmeister

      I can show you a chart to follow if you like, very simple yet effective …

      Some analysts out there is very skilled imo.

      1. Nada

        @Steffmeister Afternoon. Please share, this is what we are trying to do here. If you have had good results, then by all means lets hear them. Hats off to Bluebellkid, as he has been providing some great information. Also looks like our friend BD was saved with his FB trade!

  80. Christian

    An update from goldpredict.com

    *GOLD CYCLE HIGHS – Gold has been topping every 34-35 trading days. If the cycle count persists, we could see a top today. I don’t plan on shorting miners until gold forms a swing high.*

    His analysis lines up nicely with my own 🙂

    1. Nada

      Hey Christian. Love that guy. He is very conservative and keeps things very simple. Leaves the talking and guessing to other analysts.

  81. jacob2

    Ha! dirty energy is in ( today) oil, energy services big UP as solar sells DOWN…. always interesting. trend reversal in oil from bear to bull underway imho.

    1. Bluebellkid

      That’s what it looks like Don – one of those “intraday” corrections and then we are off to the races – talk about some squirrelly markets.

    2. dboz

      No, gonna bounce back and everyone will feel safe and then drop again and everyone will buy the dip just like they did today. Then drop again, but the dip and then drop again, then panic and we FINALLY will get a nice pull back. Just my theory. No proof.

  82. Bigdaddy

    WTF? Netflix starts falling to pieces, like it should , and then boom, snaps back. Goddamned algos.

  83. Bigdaddy

    SOXX was going down hard too and it got stopped in it’s tracks. There seems to be an invisible hand in play that won’t allow a decent correction to develop. S.O.B. Pisses me off.

    1. dboz

      Sure does look like it at this point. If we start to drop time to pile on I think. I am surprised over this last surge. But it sure makes DWT look juicy. I am not going to try to short oil though as we are right on the balanced teeter toter.

  84. Bigdaddy

    Facebook was down into the $165 range and it snapped back too. The casino is run by criminals. Probably mafia involvement.

    1. Bluebellkid

      We will see how things progress during the last hour. In a normal market the sell off would pick up steam but we are in anything but a normal market.

  85. Bigdaddy

    What happened to Robert? Ahole Zkotpen was bullying him and he hasn’t been back since.

    1. Robert

      I’m still here. Thx. Yes zkot is an idiot I ignored him, he needs to get a life. Even Gary is sick of his Epistles and ranting

  86. WYSIWYGN

    Well, if GOLDPREDICT is right (gold topping and soon to roll over), then all the bull guys should be wrong. Time to make up one’s mind. Will those who appear to be wrong this time finally shut up?

      1. Bigdaddy

        I sold the USLV at 11.58. Maybe Christian is right and a better entry point is coming in the days ahead. I still have 1000 SLV just in case .

        1. Don

          BD: Don’t you know that in bull markets. all timing mistakes are corrected? ( credit goes to Gary for those words of wisdom. I would add that is true except perhaps when one is playing with leveraged funds.

        2. dboz

          BD, you need to post this up BEFORE you pull the trigger. Now you left me high and dry holding the bag! LOL

    1. Pedestrian

      Not kidding. Dead serious. We are slowly descending into a deflationary pit that will not relent or see a bottom until the 2030’s at least. You need to imagine homes selling for the same prices they saw in 1975 to appreciate just how bad its going to be. If anything, Steen has downplayed the seriousness of the situation we face.

      1. dboz

        There will be no one to buy houses. Everyone will be homeless. If things depreciate that badly, so will your income. There will be NO CHANCE to make payments on houses or cars. In fact there will be no car companies as there is no way they will be able to afford to make them.

        1. Pedestrian

          Well Boss, some of that may be just about right. The default cycle will take years to play out and against a backdrop of hundreds of millions of retirements globally combined with endless automation, job losses and the evisceration of both savings and disposable income, by the time its all over we will feel like we are on another planet.

          I think we are looking at decades of asset price growth being reversed right back to its mean by the time the next dozen years have come and gone. The destruction that is so easily predictable in the pension schemes of today already warn us there will be very little buying power among one of the largest segments of the population.

          Sadly, the problem is worldwide so there is no hope of anyone saving the other guys sorry hide and making up for the decline in spending that is hurtling our way. Business is going to be tough. Very tough. And we do face an excruciating drop in corporate earnings that will get underway in just the next couple years that will see a lot of familiar names headed for the bargain basement or into bankruptcy.

          The only reason gold will thrive in that kind of atmosphere is because its still real money and there is no counter-party risk when you hold some physically.

    2. Steffmeister

      Haha Sten Jakobsson was my boss way back. He said that our company was climbing out of bed when we suffered from a very bad pneumonia. We were only weeks from bankruptcy. I bought ABB for a dollar and sold 3years later for 25dollar Tx Steen Jakobsson!

      He is smart! and Swedish of course!

    1. Nada

      Shakeout before ER for AMZN and shakeout of markets before GDP. Let’s see what that weakened dollar has done.

  87. roadrunner

    @palobar.
    “When God geometrises,…..”
    What does this mean? as nada pointed out you obviously want folks to be careful of something but you seem to be hiding whatever it is you want to say, in riddles.

    1. Nada

      I doubt he answers. I have asked several times, but my guess its based on “moons and goochers”.

      1. roadrunner

        Thats fine if it is based on ‘moons’. For sure there is a lot of solar activity..this past week and going through the eclipse next month. these events affect the electromagnetism of the planet and therefore affect human behavior. Maybe it is something completely different. who knows. I don’t even understand what a ” god geometrises” means. anybody make sense of this?
        i am guessing he thinks markets, maybe all markets, maybe some markets, will be under pressure starting today.

  88. apt10o

    Well GDX closed above the 50 day MA again at least. Missed the 200 day MA by a nickel.

    1. dboz

      That could lead to a big upswing again tomorrow. Back tracked the move yesterday about 50% so could take off again tomorrow after a day to cool off and reset.

  89. AT

    Added JNUG today in 2 tranches, one just before the close … hopefully it’s up from here

    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

    1. Goild

      AT
      Thanks for posting your JNUG trades.
      Would you please share how you make buy/sell decisions?
      It would be much appreciated.

  90. mustang sally

    Good afternoon everyone, It appears everyone was having a fun day as the bull websites snort to the moon. Nothing has changed in my mind so no need to post and banter about who can posture better, show me the on line bingo game. Hgd,to is the the real deal, it has kept in its uptrend, while they played games with dust.

    Hangin on to the brocno

    Mustang Sally

  91. Pedestrian

    I am starting to think we are all obsessively looking in the wrong areas trying to find the clues as to what will pop the asset bubbles we see all round us. Maybe its just so obvious that we don’t see it for what it really is. But the most excessive area of all markets today is taking place right in front of our faces in the crypto-currency space and hardly a single person seems to see the risk it poses as it may well end up being the pin in the grenade that sets off the eventual collapse. Or the straw on the camels back if you prefer. Every time I think these things can’t get any bigger they recover and then just shoot up higher again. Where is the top? Honestly I don’t know but my senses tell me we are still closer to the beginning than the end. My biggest regret is not buying back when Bitcoin was still selling under a dollar and I had the chance to get on board for peanuts. But the idea sounded just too stupid back then. Suitable only for people addicted to online gaming and really, how can you take those guys seriously? I could have been a billionaire.

    Any of us could have…

    1. mustang sally

      Mr. Ped. You are right with the canadian dollar, look at the similarities in 2008 before it crashed, I believe your next chance to be a billionaire maybe looking you right in the eye, you just need to believe in peanut butter, you know peter pan, . Do your homework and turn of the noise.

      MS

      1. Pedestrian

        Of course! When life hands you peanuts, make peanut butter.

        But seriously. I HATE buying after anything has run up so high but the truth is that these CC’s have the potential to make a huge moonshot and I don’t see any reason the better loved coins cannot still double, triple or more yet again.

        Why waste our time with gold in this kind of an environment ? Bitcoin beckons. I may just load up on the next best pullback and damn the torpedoes. The real trick will be knowing when to pull the plug and dump them and run.

        1. mustang sally

          Mr Ped. You are running right around the answer and it not bitcoin you chase something the everyone believes should be going up.

          MS

          1. Pedestrian

            How anyone here ever thought you and I were the same person is totally beyond me. Your posts are mostly gibberish and nonsense mixed with a copious dose of ego-centrism that goes nowhere.

            Carry on though. Some people love empty calories.

    2. Pedestrian

      What I mean is, these Crypto,s have the markings and potential to end up creating the biggest bubble of all time ending in the biggest bust since the Tulip frenzy. Only they are better because buyers think they are investing in actual money that just keeps inflating in value. What could be more alluring than that? As soon as they become readily accessible to the general public I think prices will be absolutely explosive. And that day is probably a lot closer than wee all imagine right now. When I consider what single asset class has the greatest potential to attract capital out of proportion to all other options it seems obvious to me that the thing that will dwarf the pack is going to be this crazy idea of investing in electronic coins online and it will all be driven be pure greed and speculation. When the thing finally topples over its going to take everything else down with it.

      Maybe I’m nuts but CC’s are already becoming a mania and we all know how those end.

      1. mustang sally

        So Mr Ped. You are over analyzing, what is going to knock down gold, and how can you make money from it. Answer that question and you may find your answer.

        MS

  92. Goild

    After AT I was thinking of initiating a JNUG swing trade.
    Looking at UUP (USD) and GLD indicates that they are still inversely correlated at least in the last three days.
    GLD has had a good run and it is near the upper channel trend line, and it is leaning toward the daily averages.

    For my taste the odds are against going JNUG long at least for tomorrow.
    Any opinion?

    1. mustang sally

      My opinion Goild, I am short jdst 100%. and will be until my hgd marker gives away.

      MS

  93. Goild

    One more consideration. GDXJ close to the daily averages.
    The time to get in was at the precession but with DUST as NUGT was clearly away from the daily averages. I actually shorted NUGT to cover too soon.

  94. Goild

    Nada,

    As per your suggestion to post my entries, I do sometimes as I did for USO which was
    a swing trade a couple of times.
    My day trades are risky/stupid and too many to post, today about 120 orders.

  95. Goild

    MS,

    Thanks for posting your opinion.
    Though you really do not mean 100% of you account is in JDST?
    What portion of your account is in JDST if you do not mind?

    1. mustang sally

      Mr Goild. Yes I have 100% in jdst in my online bingo contest. And I would bet the ship based on my markers which limit the possiblity that their wrong, but right now nothing has changed.

      MS

  96. Goild

    JJ,

    To keep the record straight, on my first trading day here in Asia I let myself to lose $14K. I have recovered about $5K.
    Again I am not talented, sometimes very stupid, as I have lost in one day $33k, in another day in 2 hours $20K, and so for. So I have my share of loses, big loses. But one day I will become a master trader and will make a first $1M out of the miners.

    1. dboz

      My favorite part is how as each pattern repeats the magnitude of the channel and the movement expands significantly. This fits in well with Gary and his 5000 gold prediction. I actually did the math for the expected level based on the info I had. So 400-500% move is doable based on previous moves.

  97. Spanky

    Pretty weak close in the miners. Certainly no indication of an imminent upwards breakout. We needed follow through but got none. The coiling continues…

  98. Goild

    Dboz,
    Nice chart argument for a big picture. It aligns with Gary’s overall bullish take.
    I agree, one day gold/miners will take off.
    Will consider building a position out of GDX/GDXJ.
    The 3X JNUG/NUGT rats are voracious in taken bulls/bears/pigs money.

  99. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Thanks for your defense, not of me, but of being different.

    More to the point, your imagery suddenly made me compare the herd on this blog to the “Reverend” Jim Jones in Guyana… 1970s…

  100. zkotpen

    BigDaddy + Robert + Nada = KKK

    Robert is simply angry because he has lost his main analyst, whose forecasts he memorizes, forever.

    1. Robert

      lol My god u need help. The main person I used to always listen to was Gary and certainly not u. Your posts are just noise, I am ignoring them. And will u stop talking to me or about me just forget that you even know me please

  101. zkotpen

    Gary,

    We shall remember the bygone days when Ped, Christian, you, and I all put our heads together in this space to hammer out some highly accurate, useful forecasts before FOMC meetings/minutes.

    No other person or group of persons on this blog has come close to our pre-Fed outlooks, and none ever will again!

    I hope that’s clear and succinct enough 😉

  102. palobar

    @Nada your question was answered yesterday. Obviously, you did not go back and check the discussion. I am not a full-time trader, so I only look at the forum when I can or I have something to say. Also, note that we have a large timing difference since I am not based in the USA. A few weeks ago I made a comment here where I said if you follow Gary’s suggestions and consider my dates as well you will do better. I am convinced that the cycles I use are very important. I have tested them many years back. What does a date mean? It is twice important compared to an important resistantce or support level. It is a potential area where the market can change direction. If the market goes through, then you know that the market will keep going on until the next date which usually a few weeks apart. I think it is wise to share a date that I think is important. On the other hand, you will agree that it is not wise to explain for free to anyone what took me years just to come close. Besides, I am not selling subscritions or anything like that. The 27-30 July is important for the Dow. It is very similar to the high we saw on the 27th of January. That date was a major date. It did stop the market but it gave only a brief correction. Once the Dow took out that high it went through the roof.

    1. zkotpen

      I fully see the value in your posts, palobar, as previously indicated!

      I have been tripped up by timing errors, even when my forecast has been correct.

      I paid close attention to your next dates for gold — combined with my forecast, they really start to complete the picture.

      So thanks again, and I certainly never ask you to reveal your secret sauce on a free blog — I just see the value in it & am grateful you have shared the results of your diligence.

      Cheers!

  103. Spanky

    Wow, they are not making this easy for bulls or bears:
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p77726079417&a=536775199&listNum=1

    Being the pessimist I am, I am expecting the miners to take a drubbing at this point. It’s hard to envision the miners just taking off out of a sideways consolidation without at least an epic headfake lower a la January 2016. It has happened before though, in 2010 for example. holding miners is like being a beaten wife who won’t leave her husband since he gives her flowers.

  104. Bluebellkid

    The Big Picture:
    U.S. stock indexes started on a strong note Thursday morning but then staged an ugly reversal. Still, the indexes battled back and the S&P 500 closed fairly high in the day’s range.
    Volume rose on the Nasdaq and the NYSE.
    Bears and bulls each made a claim for the market’s tone at different times of the session. This has been characteristic of the market for a while now. Moves up or down invite countermoves.
    At the day’s peak, the Nasdaq had wiped out two distribution days because of cumulative price gains. The June 27 and 29 distribution days on the Nasdaq were erased. However, Thursday’s losses slapped on a new distribution day on the Nasdaq.
    Among IBD’s 197 industry groups, transports did the worse — airlines, trucks, logistics, shippers and airfreight scored losses of about 3% to 5%.
    The put/call volume ratio closed at 0.91, the highest in almost three weeks. The secondary indicator is useful for pegging short-term market lows, but is still significantly short of the 1.15 reading associated with market lows. The last time the ratio reached that level was 1.17 on Nov. 8 — just as an uptrend began.
    Coming Up Friday
    The big item will be second-quarter GDP. The first reading on Q2 GDP will be released before the market’s open. The Street’s estimates range from 2.2% to 3.2% with a consensus at 2.6%.
    The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge for July is expected to roll in at 93.1, the same as the previous reading. The range of estimates goes from 92 to 94.
    Chevron (CVX) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) will both report quarterly results before the market’s open Friday.

  105. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Of course you listen to Gary — he always answers — or at least he used to answer — your inquiries for FREE! That’s amazing!!

    You do have that ability, to pick people’s brains for free, which is why you are the Toxic Schmoozer.

    Get back into the background & get what you can for free.

    I can’t imagine Gary or Christian giving you detailed responses anymore — they are too smart & now they are on to you!

    1. Robert

      Get out of my life zkot. You need a psychiatrist, your a sick old man. lol Nothing wrong with asking questions that’s what this place is about, i’m not on to anything quit being paranoid. You would do a lot of people here a favour by not posting anymore. Your cluttering up the blog with your epistles and you have a negative energy to you. I believe your the one who is toxic.

  106. zkotpen

    Nada

    “Thanks for the information. How can we learn more about your system if interested?”

    There goes the sidekick, trying to pick palobar’s brain, just like his keemosahbee!

    1. Robert

      Now your attacking NADA. You need a good punch in the face. Gary kick this guy out, he has mental issues!

    2. Nada

      I thought I was done with you. Not sure what your problem is, but asking people about their systems is a way to achieve further knowledge of the markets. I have no idea if his system works or not, but I am not obtuse. If their is merit, then it can be a tool to add to ones repertoire.

      1. roadrunner

        palobar said his system is based on cycles which he has observed, I don not think he should have to explain all his years of research. just take note of his dates and if there are reactions in the market around those dates then his future prognostications might be something to take notice.

  107. Goild

    A word of caution for those planning to get the miners riches via JNUG/NUGT.
    You may recall that the early year bounces, 2016 and 2017, took place after a long strong trendy decay in GOLD.
    Unless we have a trendy rally in gold, either way, one should not expect a trendy rally in the 3X short/long funds. Currently I do not see GOLD getting up in a strong trend or down.

  108. Goild

    Mentioned before there is recently a correlation between the gold and oil cycles.
    Oil may be temporarily topping signaling a top for gold.

    1. dboz

      We have proven time and again that things only correlate as coincidence. The USDJPY goes up a dollar gold tanks 20. The USDJPY drops a dollar and gold barely moves. Whatever correlation you like, same thing.

  109. Goild

    Further, in the last few days there is a divergence between GLD and TIP.
    I am tempted to bet that TIP and FXY will pull down GOLD.
    Too many reasons for gold to go down: OIL’s rally topping?, USD bouncing?
    TIP’s divergence, GLD near its upper channel trend line.

    Are there any counter arguments?

    1. dboz

      Yes, fundamentals don’t matter. Gold does not need a reason. It’s as simple as sentiment. I can assure you if we break and head above that downtrend line, we will get buyers especially with the next 1-2 weeks of market pullback. Momentum builds and quick moving miners will flock the day traders back looking for easy quick hitters just like early 2016. The money gravitates to fast and big moves.

      I am sure Gary is aware how short everyone’s attention span is in regards to stocks and how long most give them to do anything. It’s easy to see huge percentage gains when you have 2-3 dollar stocks on the move.

  110. zkotpen

    Goild,

    I would love to engage in this discussion, but I simply do not want to post anything of value, so long as the two toxic parasites continue to post.

    I want to know if this blog is about people getting together to share ideas about trading markets, or if it’s about something else.

    You are more socially skilled than I — perhaps you can provide some insight?

    Frankly, I would like Gary to take a stand and state which types of posts he prefers. I will certainly abide by it if he prefers the likes of Robert and Nada — let them try to pick people’s brains for free all they can. Who knows? Perhaps they can answer your question. Or if he prefers a more engaging sort of discussion on his blog… I’ll be happy to go along either way.

    They can choose to read my posts or not… but in silence.

    Or I can page down thru their posts, also in silence.

    But one thing is clear: The 3 of us cannot be posting on this blog!

    1. Robert

      You are like a parasite and leach please get out of here zkot. Go write a book as I stated earlier, find something else to do.

    2. dboz

      Why do you care if he picks your brain or takes your ideas for his own? I seriously doubt that happens but if it is consider it flattering. You take it personally? Do you think Robert is making money off your work? Aren’t you proud and happy if you can help someone out? Help them be better? Sitting there arguing you are getting your ideas stolen on a free sight open to the public on the web is truly difficult to comprehend. Insecurity possibly? Inferiority? My guess is that you are not very social and being annoymous on the webs gives you courage to speak out and be less reclusive than you probably are in real life.

  111. zkotpen

    Robert

    “You need a good punch in the face.”

    This is assault.

    I have never threatened or suggested violence upon anybody, here, or anybody else.

  112. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Please advise whom you want to stop posting: Robert/Nada or myself.

    I will abide by your decision either way.

  113. zkotpen

    Robert

    “Now your attacking NADA.”

    How short your memory is. Around 2 weeks ago, it was Nada who began all the ill-feeling, with his snide remark in reaction to a post I made addressed to Pedestrian. Therefore, I’m not attacking anybody, just pointing out that 2 people on here like to pick other people’s brains for all they can get.

    I’m not a genius, but I’m pretty smart. All my life, people have tried to pick my brain for free — clever types. So I can recognize it coming a mile away.

    And by the way, Robert, has your temper gotten you into trouble in the past?

    Why so much anger and suggestions of violence?

    At whom is your anger really directed?

    1. zkotpen

      Correction: it was Nada who began all the ill-feeling, with his snide remark in reaction to a post I made WHEN ROBERT GOT ANGRY AT THE MARKET! Remeber? Robert got angry because GDX wasn’t behaving as it should. I simply pointed out that the market is full of uncertainty, that you cannot expect it to behave one way or another, and to do so was projecting one’s bias onto the market, and that it is delusional to do so and be disappointed if the market fails to meet your expectations.

      This all began when Robert got angry at the indifferent market. Then Nada threw a stone, and Robert piled on. And a few others.

  114. zkotpen

    By contrast, if I have a forecast, and the impartial, indifferent market does something else, then it’s back to the drawing board to revamp my forecast. If I get stopped out of a trade, it’s the cost of doing business, of one event, in a random sample of events.

    I don’t get angry or disappointed at the impartial market.

  115. zkotpen

    Robert,

    Take 4 deep breaths thru your nose, all the way to the bottom of your lungs.

    Hold the 4th for 8 seconds.

    Then breathe deeply thru your mouth for 5 seconds.

    🙂

  116. Goild

    Zkot,

    I would suggest just to be cool. Let us be happy. We all here in this forum
    are quite fortunate to have bucks to trade. There is a lot of misery out there.
    We are privileged.

    Gary is a wonderful host who has welcome all. He has taken a lot of heat.
    Pedestrian has taken also a lot of heat.

    There are many ways to use the site.
    Some times it seems to be a place to keep thoughts.

    The life of a trader is perhaps lonely. This site provides a way to spark
    trading with laugh, insights, contrasts.

    As per valuable trading ideas it seems that the best course is to share them here.
    In this business hardly there is anything new. And trading is a highly personal matter where a good system only works for whoever developed it.

    There is no point in taking things personal, we are all virtual, we will unlikely meet.

    Let us exercise the art of appreciating people.
    Let us focus on making money and having a good time.
    Let us set our mind for success; at this point success is 100% governed by one’s trading psychology.

  117. Goild

    Dboz,

    Thanks for commenting above. Yes, I agree, gold can easily keep going up.
    I take it you are long gold/miners?
    If so are you holding 3X funds?
    How long are you planning to wait, what about stop loss?

    1. dboz

      I have 3k shares of JNUG and 1000 USLV. So not a very large position. Both with tight stops. We are going up after this consolidation or I am getting out. Not riding any downside here. Volume is once again falling as we move higher. To me this is the perfect scenario to a HUGE upside surprise and at least test the long term downtrend. It’s slow, boring, grinding, under the radar. The technicals have plenty of room to run due to the slow nature. No one believes THIS is THE move. The shorts are heavy and keep piling on as we go up. Any upside gets shorted more. Everyone expecting that sub 1200 drop and buy in. It can’t be that easy. Once again, we have the perfect set up. Too many shorts, too many on the sidelines, minimal interest, minimal participation, no sentiment, no action. I say a big move up is right here for the taking. I will add when it happens as there is plenty of room.

  118. Steffmeister

    Ok, I think I’ve figured this one out with a little bit of help. Late next week is key.

    Remember my candle count chart, we are in a 21candle up move, we are at bar 15 today. When we reach bar 20 it’s time to look out! And that date is inline with palobar’s date as well, nice.

    August the 4th(20bar) or the 7th(21bar)!?

    dboz you are the only one here sniffing out the turn, palobar excluded!?

    Disclaimer:
    Of course it’s impossible to predict the future, so my call here is just for fun, no investment advise

  119. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Thanks mate. I appreciate your comments. I do want to point out 3 things.

    First, privileged? I like your use of the word fortunate, as there is at least one “fortunate son” on the blog — but — it ain’t me! I ain’t no senator’s, millionaire’s, general’s son. I’ve had to struggle for anything I may or may not have. Don’t assume by my use of language that I come from wealth. I happen to be the first college grad in my family, offered partial academic scholarships to private Unis — such as Southern Cal and Vandy — but unable to pay the difference in tuition. So, state skool it was fer me.

    As for appreciation of people, I get it mostly — I did offer a breathing technique to my adversary. If he uses it, he will be able to overcome his fierce temper. That’s a valuable technique!

    Still, I don’t know how familiar you may or may not be with being copied, with no recompense. There is one trader I did meet in person who paid me a cool $300 for helping him with long/short biotech trades in early 2015. Funny thing is, after that, he expected an Amazonian flow of market analysis and forgot to return the favor. Good thing my accountant warned me about him! But she issued me a generic warning, too, after I told her about my gig with “The Flying Dutchman”. She said, “Don’t let people just pick your brain for free, especially in the markets. People will do that!” Dang — you talk about appreciating people? I love my Accountant — she rocks!! Is there anybody else on here who has shown gratitude as I have, by the way? The answer is probably yes, but we are few in number.

    Finally, best for last… trading psychology! I did have something of a stack back in late 2012. Seems I lost that going long on metals and miners. Of course, I was clueless back then — no notion of risk management! (or anything else for that matter).

    But I am doubling down on “Trading in the Zone”. I want to draw your attention to Chapter 5, the example of the boy and the dog that bites him. Pretty amazing how Mark Douglas deconstructs that image of “dog” in the boy’s mind, as memory, which we can assume as energy — emotional energy.

    That’s the real place to start, to de-energize those memories, and replace them with more productive muscle memory for success.

    As I’m sure you will recall, the goal is to become a consistent, successful trader!

    Cheers mate!

    1. zkotpen

      Goild,

      “That’s the real place to start, to de-energize those memories, and replace them with more productive muscle memory for success.”

      Consider the test rules at the end of the book, in particular:

      (1) Trade any time frame you like;

      (2) Calculate your stop loss as the amount you are willing to spend when you will know the trade has gone wrong. If you get stopped out, it’s just the cost of doing business, and you move on to the next setup.

      (3) Enter all trades for which your “edge” generates a signal. Some will be losses, which you will keep small. Others will be wins, which you will hold as long as your plan or strategy tells you to hold them. Your edge is what makes a winning trade more likely than a losing trade for you, though you can never expect the market to do what you want it to do in any particular instance.

      These rules, I am convinced, will produce that positive muscle memory, that will de-energize and replace the negative memory, for consistent, successful trading!

  120. WYSIWYGN

    Steffmeister, so Norman Greene is Argentus Maximus ? Forecasting a gold bear and an overwhelming stocks bull ?, am I right ? Correct me if I’m wrong, please. Till now, I read doomies like Hussman, Dillian, … on the path to that generational crash of 40 to 60 %. I’d like to know which one(s) is/are right, and why the wrong ones always get away with it.

  121. Goild

    Steff,

    If I recall well you were one of the very few to anticipate the gold bounce at the end of 2016. You had the magic December 25th.
    Now, what makes you think the magic day is now August 4th, 7th. What will happen?

    1. Steffmeister

      Major inflection point in Gold, it’s make it or brake it. I do not know the outcome, but we are in Bullish territory as I posted yesterday.

      Tx for the kind comments btw.

  122. Pedestrian

    Gary, time for a new thread since this one has gone haywire. Anyway, the market is just getting interesting again. With the Canadian dollar topping, crude oil about to turn down, a possibility we are on the cusp of an important rise in USD that could threaten precious metals through the fall (or not if gold follows the dollar up), it is beginning to look like the season of change. Recall I was warning about the Nikkei peaking near 20,000? Well in spite of the news each week that US markets keep hitting new highs the Nikkei has been stalled right at that 20,000 area since back in May and European indices have already turned down from the point I had been predicting. A dollar that starts to bounce back will just accelerate the trend of selling in Europe as money flows back to the US again in favour of dollar strength and the continued rise of US equities. Its a crazy world man and getting nuttier every day. I have a theory the system is going to be blown sky high by an unprecedented bubble in cryptocurrencies and the banks will be ready on that day to bring in their own version to restore stability and confidence. We are wasting our time talking about gold and silver since those are already relics. The world is moving on with technology advances in money much as has always happened and its likely metals will become even more irrelevant than they already are in the minds of the general public. Outside of the small rooms populated by gold devotees who quote from gold verses of a bygone era, the average investor still does not give a shit about metals ownership. And we can see that reflected in the price. If gold was really worthy would it not already be fetching untold attention and capital flows? But it isn’t and I suspect gold is selling for pretty much what its worth and not a penny more. If anything it is still inflated. And while we banter about it daily like stone age people hanging on to spear technology with our dear lives there are people making instant millions by investing in electronic money. We are at serious risk of missing the boat on this site as the real action just sails past us in all its glory and we struggle with marginal returns on an asset that looks by all accounts to be heading for one more decline.

    Time to go crypto Gary. Gold is for deadheads.

    1. Bluebellkid

      “If gold was really worthy would it not already be fetching untold attention and capital flows?”
      Surely you have seen the huge paper dumps in the wee hours of the morning at the most illiquid trading times??? That’s the “attention” you either fail to see or understand. Gold/silver have always been “money” and always will be a store of wealth. Have you seen numismatic sales of the high dollar coins?? the ones costing hundreds of thousands and millions of dollars – who do you think are buying those???

      1. jake

        Roosevelt and Nixon thought gold had some value and if gold is just an antiquated pet rock today would banks still be hoarding all the coin of the realm.

        1. jake

          Electronic money comes at a price. Banks have been successful in discouraging cash withdrawals and conditioning house wife’s to fear carrying cash and use credit transactions but merchants are increasingly shying away from heavy transaction fees and are offering discounts for cash purchases.
          Crypto’s are the next step in conditioning the masses into captivity.

    2. Steffmeister

      Naaa Ped you’ve been wrong before. Cryptos is for tulip lovers 🙂

      Just take a few of the highest quality Gold&Silver miners, most of them is up xxx% since late 2015/2016 that is plentiful for me!

  123. Goild

    Ped,

    It nice to read your reflections.
    I like the line “Maybe its just so obvious that we don’t see it for what it really is.”

    A trait of an expert is exactly that, to step back and see things as they really are.

    As per going elsewhere to trade…
    Perhaps there are a lot of better deals around.
    The problem is that trading gold/miners is so familiar, changing to else is hard, and at the end is the same dilemma: how much risk one is willing to take.

    For my path I am getting used to JNUG lunch money so frequently. Once I hit +$100K I will take more risk to go for another $100K hopefully sooner.

    Gold has the feature that it has some dependence on USD and TIP which help taking decisions. It also runs non stop. I wonder what other security has similar dependencies/features. OIL’s price seems to depend on a few hands and so the candles are kind of erratic, and it is hard to read for day trading.

  124. Goild

    Today Friday, what would happen?
    The GOLD weekly candles suggest to close the week with a DOJI.
    Thus tomorrow is flat or slightly down…

    Beware of falling knifes.
    Do not hope, sell!

    1. Nada

      Let’s see how the USD reacts to the data at 8:30 eastern. Today will be an important close.

  125. mustang sally

    Good Morning All:
    Thanks for all the entertaining posts, you just gotta love it and its free. Just go to any gold website and presto entertainment, and you get to play online bingo for free. Well I think there is a game but who knows. Been looking at pretty pictures Mabel Marker spit out and I am still pretty confident that Gary is going to be going to church confessing about inflation.

    MS

  126. dboz

    I will just say this, if by late August, early September GBTC gets below $300, load the boat. I actually signed up for a Coinbase account. Nothing in there yet. I am waiting for the Bitcoin Fork to play out which takes place Aug 1. It could get violent for BTC. I just got an overnight notice from Coinbase. There may very well become two factions.

  127. mustang sally

    For anyone intersted I will be using hgd,to for the marker for the mining section, 10.22 is the marker to be taken out , not a bad place to put some on line bingo chips into the game, could be a load up the bus day as gold bugs say, funny that 10.22 matches with the dust marker at 29,50 .

    See you at the end of the day to count my chips.

    MS

      1. Nada

        We had over 100m buy in GDX at EOD via wsj bow. It proves accurate for now. Someone always knows the results.

      2. mustang sally

        Good Morning Nada

        Not to concerned, as you say saved again, but the lifeline is getting shorter.

        We wait in the bush

        MS

    1. roadrunner

      @ MS. I am going to guess you will have less chips to count at the end of the day.

      1. mustang sally

        Mr> Runner: You must be a gold bug to make such a statement, thanks for letting me know, now I know for sure that gold will be down,

        MS

        1. roadrunner

          MS. you must be an anti human gold roach. Thanks for letting me know. Now i know gold will be up today.

    1. Steffmeister

      are clueless 😛 too early to tell maybe … I will wait with decisions until late next week.

    2. Nada

      Hey now, it’s not over until the fat lady sings. US cash open has not even happened. Fun stuff, gold always seems to annoy the shit out of bulls and bears.

    1. Steffmeister

      Oups I missed this one, yesterday was not a moon related thing. Yesterday marked a low regarding to Venus.
      This is just amazing, I’ve only started to scratch the surface.

  128. Jimsee

    jul 28, 1270 gold…cycle turn = high, surprised me but a major spot…this is time over price in priority

    1. Gary Post author

      2200 is way too far down IMO. 2320 might be doable. The question is will they allow a correction that large ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium?

      1. dboz

        They needed to buy enough time for TRUMP to take credit for the gains and to let the public buy into this being TRUMPS doing. NOW is the time they can let it drop and start to blame it on him. So yes, I feel they can let some air out of the balloon here. I actually think it would be much more healthy for a pullback of larger magnitude as it may turn some into believers and give you your Nasdaq 10000 path.

  129. jesselivermore

    Sorry Gary..
    Ndx was 1500 around summer ’98… then 30% correction… Then almost a 5x in 18 months!

    Ndx now corrected in 2015-2016… from there a period of 18 months already passed!

    You said the last phase is about to endure for 18 months!

    Now… crash?!?!

  130. dboz

    I will be moving my stops up to my buy in price on USLV today. Free ride from here. THANKS BD, wish you would have stayed on the SHIP!

  131. Bob

    Posting a subscriber’s comment from the other side of the tracks:

    “I have to say that if I ever complained about the membership going from $200 to $500 days like today should remind me how worth it it is.
    I would have never thought of selling the QQQ’s in the morning….that trade alone paid for the membership 10x and more…thanks Gary”

  132. WYSIWYGN

    Gary, “2200 is way too far down” … ?!? You mean there’s not even room to a 10% correction ?

    1. Gary Post author

      Meaning I think the PPT would step in long before the correction gets that deep. Don’t forget the Jackson Hole symposium is Aug. 24. The market will have to be back near the highs by then. They can’t let it get too much momentum to the downside.

      1. apt10o

        I agree, the pullback will be sharp but quick. I will be buying TQQQ immediately after Gary gives the green light.

  133. dboz

    I still think this is the fake out down draft. Bigger fish next week. Still holding TVIX. Up BIGLY so far. There is going to be some bouncing up and down for a while getting everyone confused on direction.

    1. Troy

      Hi dboz,

      TVIX is extremely hard to trade long in this strong uptrending market and I can’t get any shares to short from my broker. How do you know when to sell? I think $20 may be possible for this pullback but it will probably quickly reverse.

      Troy

      1. dboz

        Don’t follow me on this trade. I bought right at the bottom. So it’s easy to hold and let it ride. I don’t know when to sell. Just letting it go for now as I still expect more downside for a while. I am usually a good buyer but terrible seller.

    1. Gary Post author

      Oil has completed it yearly cycle low. The weekly stochastics will now cycle back to overbought. You will need to wait 3-4 months before shorting oil as the larger trend is now up.

    2. Troy

      Could be a nice spot to try. I am selling my UWT once oil hits $50/barrel which could be any minute now.
      Not gonna pass up an almost 30% profit. But oil and energy seem like they want to keep moving. I’m keeping my ERX until Gary sells energy when it gets overbought. Also have GUSH, which I may trim some today too.

  134. dboz

    It’s a good risk right now if you use a tight stop. Major resistance at $50. I nibbled on a little DWT here.

  135. bluelagoon

    Anyone have any expertise on this scenario:

    XOP has crossed above the 50DMA for the first time since Jan 30th
    It’s broken above it’s upper trendline

    Does one get in now or wait for a retest of the 50MA again?
    How far can one expect this to go?

    Thanks in advance.

  136. jake

    Short into strength but oil is not at the top of its range yet, I would wait for the turn.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thanks Jake for your input – much appreciated. What timeframe do you use to confirm a turn? I usually wait until I at least see a red bar on the 4HR.

      1. jake

        Gary is the cycle expert.
        I don’t like to enter in the middle of a trading range or break outs.
        Count the previous waves watch S/R and stoch. and buying climaxes,Trading patterns with volume.
        Have you read Walter Bresserts work its free on the web.
        GL

  137. Nada

    Hats off the the bulls, they have done a good job with gold out of this daily cycle or possible ICL. 2017 has lined up so far very well for them. Data is consistently helpful for gold and the geopolitical atmosphere is helping fuel the flames. I would assume a cycle top is close, but there is a real possibility that the ICL has been struck. Time will tell. For the record, I am still in GLD oct/sept puts at various strikes and GDX oct/sept puts. The next few trading days will decide if I add to positions or start hedging with calls.

  138. kinik007

    Hello, this is my first post and I’ve read with great interest for the last few weeks as I work but trade on the side when no one is looking to fund my work escape plan and frankly for the entertainment factor.

    I have worked in the payments industry in the past and although I own some Bitcoin I am a little skeptical that BTC will ever become true money as it probably won’t satisfy every criteria, i.e. that it will be widely enough be accepted as a form of payment. I live in Toronto, dealt with merchants and I tell you that accepting BTC is the very last thing on their mind of 99.9% of them . If and when the price of BTC becomes stable enough for businesses to be able to predict its value in comparison to their native currency countries like Canada and China (who are already looking into it) might have a competing national crypto. What is BTC good for in my opinion? As a speculative vehicle, we can still make money off of its rise and as a way to get money out of the country in case where you live goes off the rails and you are subject to capital controls which is what the Chinese are doing as we speak and probably a lot of the reason for its current value.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1uFcUt0IVE

    Should you own BTC? Probably yes, some, but there are risks as it might be subject to windfall profits tax by governments (maybe even retroactively), outlawed by governments altogether for the simple plausible reason that they don’t want a currency that competes with their own or the government shuts down the internet or something like that. Right now, BTC is interesting as technology for use in a cashless society and the market cap is not yet big enough that they are overly concerned but that will change if it ever becomes big enough.

    That is my 2 cents, spend it any way you will.

    FYI: I am with the shorties at the moment and in DUST and a little under at the moment.

  139. dboz

    Really disappointed with JNUG today. Pretty good move up once again and notta out of JNUG. Starting to think its just better to play the metals direct vs. miners.

  140. Bluebellkid

    ERX – GUSH – XOP are all above the 50 day (after many attempts) so this move may be for real.

  141. dboz

    Currencies looking crazy again. Straight up and straight down depending on what you watch.

  142. bluelagoon

    It’s not what it used to be dboz – not like last year. Seems NG is still a good place to play – though very volatile. And now oil is looking up.

  143. dboz

    Sure isn’t. I am waist deep in UGAZ. Ruined my oil trade. Really screwed that one up. UGAZ could be big the rest of the year though. Hoping we don’t have one more collapse though. Oil is on much better footing at this point.

  144. mustang sally

    Afternoon All, Most encouraging for us bears , something is starting to smell like a reversal. Don’t day trade but might be a good time for dusty, hgd is already on the move.

    Mustang Sally

  145. dboz

    What is HGD? I do imagine a pull back is coming here for metals and miners. Not sure how steep or how deep but I would still not want to be shorting metals or miners at this point. Looks like its 1000 pounds of TNT ready to go off any day. Which day will that be, no one knows.

    1. mustang sally

      Hello dboz

      hgd,to is the equal to dust. I use it as a reference for dust. It is been in an uptrend with dust not so much. thats why i am not to concerned with the hourly noise .

      MS

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