134 thoughts on “TOO RISKY TO SHORT

  1. wifesaidnomoretrading

    I am long put spread on TSLA and NVDA. Definitely no shorts and shorts on indicies is foolish, only individual names if you do your research

  2. Gary Post author

    LOL the opening bell cut me off.

    The last sentence was: the markets are virtually risk free to buy corrections.

  3. Gary Post author

    As I pointed out yesterday, gold is not acting like a weak 4th or 5th daily cycle that is ready to roll over. Generally 4th and 5th daily cycles never make it to day 14 before topping, and RSI never gets this overbought during left translated cycles. This has all the earmarks of a first daily cycle in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. As does oil.

    I see people again trying to short oil. Pay attention to what’s happening. Oil is making higher highs and higher lows. You don’t short that kind of market. You buy dips.

    1. Pedestrian

      Gary, crude WTI is making lower-lows and lower highs on the daily chart. It is now approaching striking distance of the top of its channel and there is a strong possibility it will turn down especially as the Canadian dollar looks like it has topped.

      Check this chart for yourself. WTI has almost peaked (currently finishing a higher-low).

  4. Goild

    Good morning,

    It is nice to hear the new winning tone Dboz has, a bow to him!
    Got lunch money and now is time to sleep.
    Have a great trading session.

  5. Spanky

    FWIW, the 2 hour chart for AXU looks constructive, with a golden cross.

    Also, just like in 2010, AXU’s 20 dma (the dashed line in the middle of the bollinger bands) has crept above (ever so slightly) the 50 dma, with which it had merged in a very rare manner over a very long and tight consolidation (it did the same thing before the epic 2010 run, FWIW). Now this could all change if today falls apart, but so far, there is some bullish tilt to this.

    Reply to this comment

  6. Spanky

    Other thing to note us that NEM got a hell of a pop on the daily chart. It was going to have to consolidate for at least a few days. This has put a bit of an anchor around GDX for the time being, but it is clearly a very bullish factor in the weeks ahead.

    NEM’s weekly bollinger bands, prior to this week, were the narrowest that I could find on the charts, which go back to 1983. This is a dream buying opportunity IMO.


  7. Bigdaddy

    Yesterday, i cleverly deduced that sliver had bottomed and i bought USLV at 11.56. Then someone advised me that it was a risky trade so i sold it at 11.58. Right now it is at 11.87! For F__ Sake!
    From now on, number one rule is to not let others sway me from my path to success. I have been dead on with so many calls and then sold too early. I am looking at other potential winners. Stay tuned.

    1. Gary Post author

      Let me give you a piece of advice. You are never going to catch the exact top or exact bottom. Beating yourself up because you didn’t time a perfect trade is foolish.

      That being said. gold has probably completed its ICL and I wouldn’t expect a major top for at least another 2-3 months. Sure there will be wiggles along the way, but they will be buying opportunities.

    2. Christian

      Oh don’t be such a cry baby! Who gives a damn about a few pennies on the dollar when you already have Millions!!


      Remember — Trading is all about PROBABILITIES my good man and you need to learn how to measure ‘risk vs reward’.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Don’t get pissy Christian. I blame myself for not sticking to my plans. But, how do you determine “probabilities” when dealing with markets? Do you have a formula that you could share please?

    3. dboz

      BD, I followed you and YOU are following someone else? I thought you WERE the LEADER making the calls? Regardless, I am up over 2% following your call, many thanks!

  8. AT

    Sold 100% JUNG 18.69 to lock in some profit

    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

  9. Don

    Pedestrian will be disappearing soon, like he always does after he makes his predictions for gold that are always proven to be dead wrong. Here are a couple of his ramblings from a few months back:

    May 3, 2017 at 3:51 pm
    Don’t know about 4 bucks but I think 12 dollar silver is a guarantee given enough time. That unfilled gap is just begging to be resolved one way or another. As far as gold goes it should end the year at 1150 or thereabouts.

    May 22, 2017 at 3:46 pm
    I really don’t see the excitement in crude oil. Anyone betting long is going to have his account cleaned soon enough because the WTI charts are just about as ugly as they come. I mean look at the Canadian dollar for a hint. Does that look like its about to take off and soar or fall flat on its face? At best we see a bump during the summer driving season but its all down hill after that.

    The Canadian dollar has gone up a hell of lot more than “just a bump” and has been the strongest currency in the world in the last few months.

    1. Spanky

      It’s easy to be a bear after a 12 month downtrend/consolidation in the mining stocks.

      1. Pedestrian

        Indeed Spanky. But don’t bother answering Don about this. He has a man-obsession with me.

    2. Gary Post author

      This is what the challenge is for. Instead of having to listen to endless accounts of perfect trades, everyone has to actually make real time trades and in the end we see if the losers outweigh the winners or vice versa.

      Like I’ve pointed out before, one can win 90% and still lose money over time. A high win percentage doesn’t guarantee a larger portfolio.

        1. Gary Post author

          That is the purpose of the challenge. Do you make money over the long haul. If your winners are larger than your losers you make money. If not then you lose money over time. Winning percentage is meaningless.

          I’m consistently increasing both the stock and metal portfolio over time. I haven’t had any luck with energy… yet.

  10. Gary Post author

    Like I said. Gold is not acting like a weak 4th or 5th daily cycle.

    And everyone that assumed the dollar had bottomed yesterday probably assumed too early. This is why I will never trade currencies. The dollar should have bottomed weeks ago. Hell it should have bottomed months ago. A 64 week intermediate cycle is absurd. It’s like a six sigma event. It should never happen naturally.

    Trump wants a lower dollar, and a lower dollar is happening. As far as I can tell there is no such thing as fundamentals in the currencies. They are like sands on the beach. They can be produced infinitely at 0 cost. The only fundamentals are which central bank is in control of the Forex market at the moment.


    @ Spanky: Alexco in USD, yes, higher, but in CAD, no
    Rise of gold price solely due to weakening usd ?

    1. Spanky

      Really not too concerned with the currency aspect. Plus, I have a few Mexican silver miners to balance things out.

    1. Spanky

      To me it seems worthless not to compare like to like, i.e., the things you are comparing need to be denominated in the same currency or whatever. For example, you can compare oil/gold ratio with coal/gold ratio and use that to see which one is cheaper in real terms.

    2. Spanky

      You need to compare miners in CAD to the price of metals in CAD for the comparison to mean anything.

  12. allthatglitters

    I’m going to be the lone contrarian here and say gold did NOT complete an ICL, that is still ahead of us. Gold never reached the abysmal levels of sentiment needed for an ICL. When the current SS Wet Noodle Rocketship To The Moon full of giddy goldbugs nosedives back towards the swamp, then you’ll start to see some real ICL sentiment.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll point out that during a bull market sentiment doesn’t always drop to the same kind of extremes that is does during a bear market.

      If you go back and look at intermediate degree sentiment during the first 11 years of the bull you will notice that most ICL’s occur with sentiment around 40% bulls.

      It’s only during a bear market that sentiment has to drop below 25-30% bulls before a turn occurs.

      At the recent low sentiment hit 40% bulls.

    2. Spanky

      Well its above the 20 WMA, with the weekly stochastics pointed up.

      Also, the 100 and 200 WMA are going to cross very soon. That often leads to a massive run.


    I bought some CAD-miners on these levels. Low scale, that is, don’t trust this upthing either, as these miners are really not responding …
    Buying too early, Gary ?
    Rebounce of usd could really hurt metals next week ?

      1. WYSIWYGN

        I already read your update this morning. I’m not an economist, so what do you mean by the different stages ? As far as I grasp it, you still see (most of) the silver miners in (the last??) bear market stage ?

          1. Surf City

            Somewhat but getting the longer Cycle right helps in trading the shorter ones as the longer Cycles typically dominate the shorter ones and determine their outcome. Stocks are clearly in Stage 2 Bull Market so almost every Intermediate Cycle has been right translated since the 2009 Bear low. Gold is trying to prove that the Bull has resumed but until the 150ema on the daily starts to provide strong support at lows the jury is still out, IMO.

            To that end, Weinstein focuses on the longer cycle as the 150ma (30ema on the weekly) takes some time to turn. In Bull phases it should provide support and in Bear Phases it provides resistance. Some use the 200 but the concept is the same.

          2. mustang sally

            So Surf City, you come here to pump your subscription site but you do not go into the online bingo, If you don’t get in on the online bingo they how do we know how good you are. I am in why not you?

            Mustang Sally


    allthatglitters: your contrarian comment hangs above my bed. We’ll see within couple of days/weeks.

    1. Nada

      am with allthatglitters (and very well could be wrong), but your comment made me laugh. Good one 🙂

  15. Herman

    EUR/USD has now, at 1.176, retraced 38% of the fall from 1.40 (in 2014) to 1.035 (this year).

    Does it makes sense to expect a reversal here and possibly a test of 1.122?

  16. Bigdaddy

    Ok guys, here is my latest move. I bought 300 SQQQ at 28.14. The SM is in trouble and the tech stocks are way overbought. Stay tuned.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Yeah, i watched the video. So? it’s not like Gary gets it right every single time. The QQQ looks like it is in trouble.

      1. Don

        Gary, you do know that the PPT can only buy futures, right? Futures are not directly linked to the SM as the SPY ETF is. In other words, the PPT can buy all the futures they want but that doesn’t necessarily mean the SM will go up. That is why the BOJ buys ETFs and not futures, because it directly impacts their SM.

          1. Gary Post author

            I was just going to point that out. The market will never stray too far from the futures.

  17. JJHarmen

    Has the scenario of the miners taking out the Dec lows been taken off the table ? GDX does seem a little slow moving and needs to get above that $23 mark and stay above.

    1. MagnuM

      Endeavor burned me this year badly when it dropped -25% in one day. It’s in the sin bin for a while!

      I have no miners right now, but in a few weeks, I look forward to making long positions in Great Panther, First Majestic, Fortuna, and SilverCorp!

    1. Spanky

      I too noticed the very low volume today. Perhaps it is going to pick up by EOD.

      One thing is for certain though, we are reaching an apex in term of low volatility. There is going to be an explosion, up or down, soon. I am leaning bullish, but seeing the miners get hammered would be par for the course.

      Big moves are coming. Or at least very significant LT trending moves.

    1. Gary Post author

      ERX is up 14% in 3 weeks.

      Energy has bottomed and just like every other ICL in history most people won’t be able to bring themselves to buy until many percentage points have gone by.

      They will do exactly as you are doing today. They will view every down day as the resumption of the down trend. Instead they should view any down day as an opportunity to buy cheaper.

    2. Nada

      No sir, we are not. However, DUST/NUGT/JNUG still in similar range over last few days. I still think we are topping, but I am not married to my position.

  18. Don

    Oil stocks are not responding well to crude strength. Small caps are not doing well either. The SM should be sliding. I don’t know what is holding up the S&P other than the biotechs.

  19. Gary Post author

    Folks the metals still have many weeks yet to rally. They don’t have to do it all in one day. This intermediate cycle won’t top until at least late October or early November.

    I went over this in one of my premium reports, the YCL has to migrate to the early part of the year in a bull market. There will be no ICL in December this year. It will move to January or February as it should during a bull market. This means a much later top than last year when the top came in July. This year the yearly cycle top is going to occur late in the fall.

    1. mustang sally

      Sir Dboz Don’t know , but I kinda think dust and the other friends will do the popin, as you put it.

      Day tradin Sally

      1. Nada

        Mustang Sally, I am with ya on DUST. However, you gotta stop making predictions – they are killing us 😛

        1. mustang sally

          Sorry Nada: I really don;t care what it does , They have been useing the crappy us numbers to make the numbers. MY markers still hold and I said hgd must better 10.22 area. The main man are playing lets accumulate , so there’s the opportunity, dust is in a bull period, If you are big money you want this thing to look as ugly as you can. and right now dusty is that. As I said to Ped, get outside the circus ring and you will see.


          1. roadrunner

            you’re not really missing anything nada.
            first MS had two numbers, 1 on DUST and One on HGD. they were not supposed to trade below that number. Which was 10.22 on HGD and 29.30 on Dust. both those levels have been surpassed to the downside. now it looks like MS is saying that once 10.22 gets taking out to the upside, which it did couple weeks back, it will be all over for the miners. eventually he might be right. He is in the bingo game but since the start of the game i think Gary is doing better than MS

    2. Christian

      Agree — DUST is trading within a triangular consolidation and will more than likely deliver one more low.

      No pop yet for Mustang/Ped Sally!

      1. dboz

        Agreed. Maybe one more week of upside for metals. Then a pullback. Pullbacks are becoming more mellow and short lived. Just need to keep that in my mind. Can’t get too cute trying to jump in and out any longer.


    didn’t we have this kind of optimism somewhere in June too ?
    the (small amount of) canadian miners I bought then all all under water

    1. Spanky

      Who is optimistic? The charts on pretty much every time frame from 1 hour to 1 month are dead neutral in the PMs. This is building to an apex now.

      The gold monthly chart, and this month’s candle in particular look decent (hammer candle), with price just above the confluence of the 20 MMA, which is just now crossing over the 50 MMA for the first time in 15 years.

  21. Spanky

    Whatever happens, up or down in PMs, the next few weeks are going to be very very interesting. I can’t imagine the volatility will get any lower. I think NEM is a leading indicator that the break should be up.

    GL to everyone.

    1. Bluebellkid

      NEM does look good from the standpoint of a nice move up confirmed by way above average volume (notice I didn’t say heavy volume Gary). Average weekly volume is around 25 mm and with 40 minutes left in the trading week NEM has traded over 32 mm shares.

        1. Bluebellkid

          I wouldn’t bet the farm on anything but some miners are exhibiting bullish price/volume action. GDX is above both the 50 day and 200 day and closed near the highs of the week on volume that was about average which is a change from last week where volume was well below average. NUGT, GDXJ and JNUG all closed above the 50 day on volume that was not above average but right at average levels so something is up.

  22. Spanky

    I expect the silver miners to pop up by the latest Tuesday EOD.

    Of course, they could break down out of their triangles too.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Yes it does and I bailed on my stock position (made a little) and bailed on my options (lost more than a little but not too bad) – made some of it back on my LOW short that I also closed this afternoon. I will be unable to follow the markets Monday as I will be at the MD Anderson Mohs unit for a little procedure.

  23. Spanky

    Tuesday should be the day… Also will start a new month–August, which has been generally a very good month for miners even during the bear.

    1. Nada

      It didn’t make a lower low today, but it may next week. Everyone is expecting the 200wma to be taggged.

  24. mustang sally

    Nada. Answer your question hgd,to has to break above 10.22 to finalize the deal, this will happen when the spigots on the usd is let out.

    Mustang Sally

  25. mustang sally


    To clarify, my marker on dust got taken out but my marker on hgd at 9.22 has not. the 10.22 I stated was the upside target for hgd to surpass again to seal the bear on miners again. So right now I watching 9.22 to hold or must reconsider the position.


    1. Nada

      Ok no worries, I didn’t understand the hgd.to reference – thanks for clarification. Next week makes or breaks the USD.

  26. Nada

    I am not a big fan of EW, but on the 4h, using July 10th as the low, you can clearly see 5 waves up. I am not sure how much further wave 5 will go up, if any.

  27. KHT

    The next two trading days may usher in the new BULL or continue the ongoing bear in Gold.

    The first is a precise down trend of the first 2 coordinates.


    Now the slightly adjusted.


    Either way it will take a breech of the down trend and a back test next week to decide. Either we will have a new Bull or back down into the triangle.

  28. Don

    MS: I don’t understand how your marker system works but I do know that DUST and HGD are very different ETFs. DUST is a 3X inverse leveraged product that closely tracks GDX while HGD (Toronto) is 2X inverse leveraged and it closely tracks XGD.TO

    The component makeup of GDX is somewhat different than XGD and although they generally follow one another with high correlation, that has not been the case for the past month. GDX is up 3% and XGD is down 3%. That difference is reflected in the performances of DUST and HGD. One must also consider the very high degree of decay that is characteristic of DUST. Currency fluctuations are another issue when component stocks are listed on both US and Canadian exchanges. Prices are arbitraged by the markets and that will affect ETF performance. As you know, the Canadian dollar has rallied sharply.

    My friend, since you are clearly not comparing apples to apples, it comes as no surprise that your ‘markers’ are giving you different results. You might want to fine tune your system somewhat.

    1. mustang sally

      Dear Don: I really do not care what the components are in each one, they are a mining derivative and move the same together. Each chart looks different with regard to touch points but in the long term picture they will riese and fall back at relative same periods, As the miner bears are bottoming each one will move up on their own. Right now hgd.to is outperforming dust ( relative) and is leading the miners up. All indexes are played by big money, Right now dust is being accumulated.


      1. Don

        Sorry, but HGD is NOT leading the miners up and nor could it possibly do so as an inverse ETF.
        Fact: HGD peaked at 10.44 on July 10 when XGD bottomed on the same day at 11.53.
        Fact: XGD has since risen to 12.14 while the inverse HGD has declined to 9.60, precisely as it should.

        The 2x leveraged HGD will always out-perform 3x leveraged DUST when the miners are rising and always under-perform DUST when the miners are falling. It’s the leverage difference, that simple.

        I have noted that XGD is currently under-performing GDX and that is nothing unusual. Other times it will out perform for a time and it all depends on the performance of individual, but different, component stocks. A single stock can make a difference in the relative performance of two similar indexes.

        I think you are on a wild goose chase thinking there may be something predictive about the differences in performance when that difference is primarily due to how the ETFs are structured and leveraged but good luck trying anyway.


  29. Goild

    Just waked up to find out how good the day was.

    AT great job with your trades.
    Would you please share how your crystal ball works?

  30. Steffmeister

    hmmm … this is not a gold bull … yet

    I will post a chart tomorrow.

    Ha det så bra så hörs vi imorrn 🙂 godnatt

  31. mustang sally

    This is for you Don. all charts have many lines that can be drawn, that is why there are so many opinions. It is finding the relevent lines that matter, a computer graphic program can do it in minutes. For all stocks there is a pattern if the stock goes up and there is a pattern for a downward trend , So you have markers if the stock goes down and markers for up. For example if gold has topped the following markers are relevent 1230, 1180, 1200 and 978. They are only relevent if gold goes down from here.
    The same with hgd 10.24 is only relevent if gold goes down. 10.24 is the marker which identifies the trend. for gold it is 1230 if the trend is down, And with most derivatives the stock can move above and below a marker before a direction is determined, which is the case with dust, it is directionless at the moment.

    Hope you get the drift


  32. mustang sally

    Another to add to help you out , is the marker for dust at 29,50 will come support again once it crosses back, if it is true dust bull then 29.50 will hold, then short till your dry, if it goes through it again then it is a dust bear. The points are just probability markers that help you decide, and right now there is no decsion so no need to get excited, there is just a higher probablity that gold will go down right now. It may change if an up market gets it and it goes through and acts as support,.


  33. mustang sally

    Sorry Don one more thing if dust is a true up marker then in the next 3 days dust should hit the up marker 32.22

    Lights out


    1. Don

      Ok, I am trying to understand your thinking however, the slippage on DUST is so severe that even in as little time as one month, the decay would cause DUST to lose even is GDX was at the exact same price. How can any ‘marker ‘ system work in that kind of environment? Wouldn’t it be better to use markers on the index (GDX) rather than it’s derivatives (DUST, NUGT)?

  34. Bluebellkid

    Current move up in miners compared to the January 2016 move:

    We now have 3 UP weeks for GDX and volume is tepid at best. The week of 7/14 GDX’s average weekly volume (AWV) was approx. 233.1 mm and declining and actual GDX volume that week was 217.5 mm with GDX up 2.78%. The week of 7/21 AWV was approx. 226.5 mm and still declining and actual GDX weekly volume was 133.7 mm with GDX up 2.8%. This week the AWV is approx. 220 mm and still trending downward and actual weekly volume was 224 mm so slightly above average for the first time in the past 3 up weeks and GDX managed to move thru the 50 day and 200 day which are almost the same value and it was a 2.19% move.

    In January of 2016 when the big move started it went like this and I will compare the first three weeks.
    First week GDX was up 9% and closed above the 50 day moving average on 285 mm shares traded for the week and AWV was approx. 239.9 mm. The next week was an even bigger move (19.99%) and GDX closed above the 200 day on 480 mm shares traded and AWV was approx. 261.4 mm and trending higher. The third week of the new uptrend saw GDX make another nice move (10.5%) on 583 mm shares while AWV was approx. 289.9. GDX went straight up till May where it corrected for about a month before resuming the move and topped out in the middle of August when it made a 3+ year high on way below average volume which is a red flag when happening in real time and this red flag would turn out to have been the top. The sell signal came two weeks later when GDX crashed thru the 50 day on way above average volume.
    If the current move is going to have legs it will need to see more volume than we have seen.

  35. Don

    Bluebellkid: Let’s say I have 10 million shares of Apple that I want to sell because I believe future earning are going to suffer. I end up selling to 1000 different people. So, in this case, I am a single seller to multiple entities.
    A few years later, I have reason to believe that Apple’s earnings are going to soar so I put an order to buy 10 million shares and get those shares filled by 1000 sellers. In this scenario, one buyer is acquiring shares from multiple sellers.

    On both days of selling and buying, the volume is inflated by 10 million shares. In the first case, I am distributing and in the second, accumulating. So, How can one make any kind of statement about a market or stock based on volume alone? Low (or high) volume can be bullish or bearish. What we really need to know is the ratio of sellers to buyers and the volumes involved. Of course, that key information is not readily available to the average investor because it would be incredibly useful.

    The S&P rose steadily from 2010-2015 and did so on “tepid” volume. It is still rising today with somewhat improved volumes but still no where near what the volumes were prior to 2008. The high volumes of 2008 certainly were not a bullish sign. Would high volumes be bullish today? Well, I guess that depends, right?

    1. Bluebellkid

      Price action is the other key element. Looking at a weekly chart where did the stock close the week??- in the upper half of the weekly trading range or lower half. How do you determine that?? add up the high of the week and the low and divide by 2. On the three week comparison I posted earlier those were all UP weeks and that was why I put UP in caps and put the % moves. The big move that started in January of last year started with GDX closing near the highs of all three of those weeks and when I say near the highs of the week I mean within pennies – that characterizes a strong move. As far as the S&P rising on relatively low volume that too can be “accumulation”. IBD did a study and published an article and used AAPL as an example of how accumulation can be going on even though volume isn’t always above average.

  36. Goild

    As per volume as an indicator…
    One has to make the home work to track volume and understand the price/volume/dynamics patterns that are favorable.
    Today jnug volume on the first candle was significant and so it provided the confirmation to go long.
    Volume is one of the key tools a trader has, it is often neglected, and it takes effort to use it to advantage.
    We should talk more about it.

  37. zkotpen


    “As per valuable trading ideas it seems that the best course is to share them here.”

    I have given this careful consideration. Remember, I’m an Economist, so I’ve run over the cost/benefit analysis, and I come to an entirely different conclusion. It is nowhere stated that the objective of this website is sharing of ideas among traders. That is an assumption you make, and I wish I could make. But it is simply not the case. From my side, to post any trading or market ideas — especially ones of any value — is costly and risky on the one hand, but offers little chance of benefit on the other.

    Perhaps you may have read my forecasts over the past many months. You know what I’ve posted pre-FOMC. You probably noticed that I did not post last week. Maybe my forecast was good, maybe it wasn’t. Maybe it was as though I wrote the script, maybe it was pure crap. Either way, Wednesday has come and gone.

    Feel free to get in touch if you like. As for posting my thoughts on here, it is more as Christian suggested:

    A waste of my time.

    I read your posts and a few others. Otherwise, it’s an exercise in “Page Down”. Feel free to get in touch if you like. This space is more populist and lately reminds me of “Lord of the Flies”.

  38. Steffmeister

    A waste of time zkot!?

    I feel that in some ways I am guiding Gary in the right direction. I posted a dollar chart and two days later he forks out his new dollar analysis and says the ICL in Gold is in.

    I posted this the 20th of July:
    I modified one of the charts, a picture perfect H&S pattern shaping up the coming year ?

    Ok here we go, a warning to follow Gary’s “we are in a bull in Gold call”:

    This scenario has the upper hand at the moment. Yes this is Oil, but we have the same wave structure in Gold. Just kindergarten EW theory.

    To shift the scenario into a “bull now” we need 1000ton of TNT, a gap up breakout! We do not have that yet. Maybe end of next week?

    This is probably one of my last contributions here, watch the turning date 3-7th of August!

    Good luck!

    1. Steffmeister

      Oh when looking at the oil chart it’s even better than I thought

      a = $1040 – check.
      b = $970 – a little bit later …

        1. Steffmeister

          a = 1040 the 2015 low in gold

          b = we are more than half way through now, yes 1.618 of a = 1462

          c = the final low of the bear at 970

          but IF gold goes nuclear here, the above is invalidated. Then we are looking forward to a multi year bullmarket topping out at 3000-5000dollars!?

  39. Goild


    For me spending time here at smt has been fun and has widen my trading horizon.
    Posting and reading posts makes the daily trading more appealing. Here we have folks to talk about trading.
    As per sharing, I guess it is a complicated matter depending on way too many factors.
    It is like trading, very personal.


    Dear Steffmeister, so the turning date 3-7 august is the rebirth of the gold bull ?
    Or am I wrong (again) ?

    1. Steffmeister

      Yes if a brutal impulsive gap up breakout to the upside (less likely)


      A grinding move up for a couple of months, the ICL is in, but a revisit to 1236 isn’t out of the question. (most likely)

      and the Gary, Christian, Pedestrian, Sally move a 34 daily candles down move into early September a touch of the triangle at 1180 (less likely?)

  41. butch

    I’m holding my Dec 1300 gold call option positions for 5 reasons.
    1. Gold above 50 day SMA
    2. 50 day above 200 day
    3. COT is bullish
    4. No recent large volume selling.
    5. I’m a Cowboy

  42. mustang sally

    Morning Don. The answer to your question about dust , it does not matter. It creates a pattern which enable markers to be established, Here is a question for you, if you had all the money in the world and you knew what the market is going to do in the fuure would you want everybody to know so they could buy stock too. I don’t think so, maybe that answers your decay question.


  43. mustang sally

    Markers for oil,, since we are talking oil, here are my markers for wtic

    Upside marker 52,100
    Downside marker 44 , 23 and 33


  44. mustang sally

    Markers for gold, as with oil gold could move up a bit here maybe 1280- seems to have a red light on it, so with that being the median marker

    Upside markers 1654, 2000. 1730
    Downside markers 976, 760, 950

    So it looks like around 1275 will be the clue.

  45. zkotpen


    I suppose my conclusion can sound a bit dramatic, when I read it back as such. But actually, it’s one of the few aspects of Economics that I’ve always liked: Cost/Benefit Analysis, which doesn’t just look at costs and benefits in and of themselves, but also considers the probability of paying the costs and of receiving the benefits.

    Thus, expected cost equals cost times the probability of having to pay those costs, and expected benefit equals benefit times the probability of receiving those benefits. When I subtract the former from the latter, the difference comes out less than zero. So long as that remains the case, not another word about markets from me — much to the delight of many, I’m sure!

  46. kinik007

    Mustang Sally, I am in the same camp as you. I’m a shortie and have 4K in DUST at the moment, a little underwater but don’t believe that the ICL is in yet. I have upside to between $45-55 before the ICL finishes depending on level of decay. May I ask what your markers think is the final upside target on the trade?

    1. mustang sally

      Hello Kin: Just follow the gold markers, miners will follow. either up or down, for dust 29.50 has to be recaptured, the markers will tell us if we are right,


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