63 thoughts on “Trading challenge update

  1. Steffmeister

    My personal “GDXJ” with 21 miners:

    I am way back at +6,5% 😛 should have kept Novo Resources a while longer and entered my proud Swedish goldminer Lundin Gold a little bit later, what a stubborn decline the last month, holy smokes!

    Sticking to my 50-10-50 plan, that corresponds to approx 666k dollars in yesterdays dollar value.

    I am 47, 666/15 = 3700dollars per month for 15years .. and not making a buck in markets.

  2. Gary Post author

    Folks, gold and oil both have completed their yearly cycle lows.

    Take a step back and look at the longer term weekly charts, and it’s obvious.

    Just as I predicted the gold:oil ratio is declining as oil starts to outperform gold. But the ratio will stay high during this phase of the commodity bull as gold is now the leader, whereas oil was the leader from 2000-2008. So the days of seeing the gold:oil ratio under 15 are gone. Probably the lowest we will get now is 20 with periods as high as 40 barrels to one oz. of gold and maybe even 50 or higher during the final bubble.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think the ratio hit the top 3 weeks ago at 79 and silver will now outperform gold over the next 4-5 years until we get a final bubble top. At which point the ratio will probably drop to 30 or lower.

      Silver is a much better place for an Old Turkey position than gold in my opinion.

        1. Gary Post author

          The huge bloodbath phase is occurring in the dollar. That has turned the correction in gold into a long basing pattern. We still made it down to 40% bulls at the bottom which is about normal for intermediate corrections during bull markets.

          1. Zachery

            Understood

            But the caveat is now everyone is so bearish on dollar. Once the tide turns,
            it can deliver a blow to precious metal

          2. Gary Post author

            See my previous article on the dollar. Cycles and sentiment have become useless in the currency markets. They are controlled by central banks and Trump wants the dollar down. The Fed is making that happen.

            I don’t have high hopes for much of a bounce anytime soon, and once the 2016 low is broken there is no support until the low 80’s for the dollar.

            There was always going to be a price to pay for years of QE. The rally the last 8 years was a mirage and the mirage is going up in smoke.

  3. Zachery

    Thanks for the insight, Gary

    BTW, you said next 4-5 years until we get a final bubble top in precious metal sector.

    That means gold’s bull longevity is approximately 4-5 years??

    1. Gary Post author

      Well gold is almost 2 years into its new 8 year cycle. The cycle should be right translated. So I’m going to guess that we have 4, or maybe 5 years before gold hits it’s final bubble top.

      I suspect the next 1-2 years will be a slow grind back up to the all-time highs. Then once the breakout above $1923 occurs we’ll have about a year and a half where price just goes nuts to the upside with a final bubble top between $5000 and $10,000.

        1. Gary Post author

          The Nasdaq rallied almost 250% in the last year and a half.
          Oil rallied 200% in a year and a half.

          Gold is a much smaller market than both. It won’t take anywhere near as much liquidity to drive gold 300-500% during the final bubble.

          Once we cross $2000, it’s only a 100% move to get to $4000. 200% to get to $6000 and 300% to get to $8000

  4. mustang sally

    Afternoon everyone

    Here are the markers for gold , nothing has changed but will let the markers tell me

    Markers for gold, as with oil gold could move up a bit here maybe 1280- seems to have a red light on it, so with that being the median marker

    Upside markers 1654, 2000. 1730
    Downside markers 976, 760, 950

    So it looks like around 1275 will be the clue. and a break of 1170 means bye bye for gold

    MS

  5. mustang sally

    Gary before you get rip roarin excited about the end of the usd, I have one caution for you, if next week the usd gets above 93.61 and stays you could be in big trouble. I will let the marker tell me.

    MS

  6. Andy

    Gary, I don’t say that you’re wrong in your gold thesis at all, but your theory that the dollar is now tanking because 1) Trump wants it to or 2) That all the QE money has been finally hurt it ….I can’t quite get behind.

    Keep in mind that the EURO is going gangbusters…you can’t apply the same reasoning in that case, because 1) they’ve printed trillions as well and 2) they are in the middle of an immigration wave that will gut the continent SOON and 3) The union is falling apart slowly but surely (Brexit was the start).

    I have to believe that among ALL major currencies, the USD is the healthiest. JPY is going down the devaluation hole and it has been for decades….I already gave my opinion on the EUR, the Renmimbi….well China has much bigger problems than the western world.

    I think your original thesis on the dollar from a while back was correct…..this is a 3 YCL going on right now and we’re finally in the bloodbath phase of it. To your own point….cycles are stretched all over the place, especially in currencies.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’d say you need to quit reading Martin Armstrong. He’s never spotted a major turn yet.

      Socrates is set up to be a trend following system, so it never catches the turns from bull to bear, or bear to bull until many months or years have gone by. He’s just now finally starting to admit that gold isn’t going under $1000. It only took him about 2 years. I spotted it almost the second it happened.

  7. Andy

    Steffmeister….where in Sweden are you from partner? I was born and raised there….moved to the US in 2002 and have lived here ever since. I used to live right outside of Gavle….sorry I don’t have the last three letters on my keyboard here 🙁

    1. Steffmeister

      Tjena Andy, jag Ă€r SkĂ„ning 🙂 frĂ„n Lund frĂ„n början men bor nu i Malmö.

      Landet hÀnger ihop fortfarande, materiellt sett.Det Àr rent och snyggt överallt. MÄnga har gott om pengar, men jag tror delvis att det Àr en illusion. SkuldsÀttningen Àr rekordhög och bostadspriserna Àr skyhöga, inte bara i Stockholm. PopulationsmÀssigt har min hemstad förÀndrats vÀldigt mycket de senaste Ären, en varning om vad som komma skall!?

      Goldprice is rising for a reason …

  8. mustang sally

    For those interested here are the usd markers

    upside markers 102.28, 133.0, 188

    this is for you gary

    downside markers 82. 65, 71

    remember if 93.61 is taken out and holds , you are in trouble gary

    1. Bigdaddy

      Mustang S, i am assuming that you have back tested what ever it is you are working on and know that it works. Great. Would just tell us when what to buy and sell so we don’t have to do any thinking? I would greatly appreciate that and i think others would too because deep down, all investors are a lazy bunch and want to get rich the easy way. You have back tested, right?
      By the way, anything less than 5 million cash means retirement is going to suck big time so plan accordingly. Inflation is a bitch.

  9. Goild

    I might be wrong, though I kind of recall that Zkot posted many months ago somehow a hardship condition he has dealt throughout his life. That he is surviving and making money in the market speaks highly of him. You never know.

  10. Bigdaddy

    I don’t know how Zkotpen could be making any money in the markets. All that guy does is spend his day typing up long winded theories. He has no time to trade. The reason i am here is to see if anyone else picked up on Trump’s threat to withhold payments to the medical insurance companies. That news should shake up the health care stocks next week.

  11. Bigdaddy

    The SM looks toppy to me. There is no way the markets are going to explode upward. Not going to happen no matter how many times Gary says it will.
    So, what’s the opposite of a parabolic rise.? Facebook and Netflix are going to take a hit next week. Even my dog can see what’s coming.
    I am well positioned for a big sell off.

    1. Gary Post author

      In case you haven’t noticed the markets are already exploding upwards. Yes we will probably have a correction at some point (hopefully) but you have to buy the correction. 10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question if things really get nutty during the final bubble.

    2. Bluebellkid

      From the Big Picture:
      U.S. stock indexes edged down Friday, keeping their losses small for the week.
      The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 sanded off 0.1% Friday, while the blue chip Dow Jones industrial average rose less than 0.2%.
      Volume was lower on the Nasdaq nd on the NYSE.
      The technical picture for the stock market improved during the week but in an unusual way. During the week, the Nasdaq suffered a stalling day and a regular distribution day, even as the overall count of higher-volume declines fell. Cumulative price gains helped the Nasdaq shake off several distribution days, even as the indexes sold off Thursday.
      Among IBD’s 197 industry groups, the top gainers for the week were consumer electronics retailers and the financial mortgage group

    1. Steffmeister

      It’s the same shit in Sweden on a lower scale. Malmö my hometown is a light version of Chiraq :-/ Goldprice is rising for a reason …

  12. Goild

    If you apply the rule of three or four, then the sm has given a solid first step and about to have a bit of a retracement for a second step. Then at least a third upwards step will take place, and the final exponential, not parabolic, pull up to kill all bears.

  13. Goild

    Gary,

    I take it that the four names above in the competition are subs as you know their names.
    Would you please comment on the SMT policy regarding confidentiality on disclosing the names of subs?
    Many people might want to remain anonymous and clearly spelling your policy would be helpful.

      1. Goild

        Gary,
        Thanks for commenting.
        I would suggest to clearly post in your site your the SMT position on confidentiality of names as this is might be an issue for subs.

  14. Goild

    The issue of confidentially is a major one.
    I am sure Gary will take the right steps if not already there.
    I am not a sub and have not subscribed because when I read the SMT policy I got the impression that SMT owns the information and could be free to share it.
    Disclosure of real names is a major issue.

    1. dboz

      Nothing is concerning me. I just prefer to remain anonymous and for Gary to not use last names. I actually think it would be better for him to use our handles so people actually know who the top are by their forum handle. MS was so anxious to post the results but I haven’t heard a word now?

  15. Goild

    Don,

    He has not disclosed any full names that I know.
    I started the dialogue because for many of us I think is an issue that I believe is not clear in the SMT site.
    The suggestion is to have a clear policy, if not already there, on subs/posters confidentiality.

  16. Bigdaddy

    I can hardly wait for silver to reach $500 or better yet, $1000. I am going to start stocking up on toilet paper cause i figure it will sell it for $30 per roll when silver hits that $1000 mark. I would stock up on bread too cause it should easily hit 150 bucks a loaf but then I would need to buy freezers and install wind turbines for free power to keep the bread from going bad. Nope, better to stick with the ass wipe idea folks and buy silver for backup.

  17. mustang sally

    Gary, I know this is more paper work but there is one more component and that is efficeincy of trading , amount of gains is great , how many trades did it take to get it,, If you have to sit at your 10 screens 24 hr, a day then not good in my books,

    Please consider.

    2 trade Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s why I posted the number of trades each made.

      Over trading rarely pays off in the long run.

      Most people in the challenge immediately turn around and buy something after they have sold. I doubt that a good setup magically materializes right after a sell so this is usually a sign that one is gambling, not trading.

      The best trade setups occur at cycle tops and bottoms. Those don’t come around that often. The patience to wait for them will probably reward those traders that have the patience to wait for them.

  18. Goild

    Good morning,

    I guess Dust might be getting ripe for a trade?

    Volume in jnug has increased in the last three sessions, and this may suggest a gap up on the miners to inflict pain in dust/just?

  19. mustang sally

    Good evening all. The marker I will be watching this week is 1234 gold, will be trouble if it breaks and holds, something to watch if you think gold is going to the moon,

    MS

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