Trading challenge

Folks this is the only format I’m going to accept.

I want the price you bought or sold at.

I want the percentage of the portfolio. (I will calculate the number of shares.)

I don’t want to see anymore stop loss levels. I don’t want number of shares (then I have to figure out what percentage of the portfolio that is).

Just two pieces of information.



Percentage of portfolio


Anything other than that and I’m just going to delete your email.

You also can’t use margin. If you exceed the value of the portfolio I will ignore any further trades.

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162 thoughts on “Trading challenge

  1. Christian

    This contest is already turning into a headache by the looks of it — Glad I didn’t partake πŸ™‚ One less person for you to worry about.

    1. Bluebellkid

      And I’m not partaking either – I just posted a couple of trades for you Christian as you kept hounding me to do so.

      1. Christian

        Oh C’mon Blue!! ‘HOUND’ is a strong word πŸ™‚

        It’s nice to see you and others post in real time. It holds you accountable and I have so much more respect for anyone who is willing to put themselves out there for everyone to see and criticize.

        Another way of looking at it is this: If you have something that works, then I’d like to learn it so that I can continue to grow as a trader/investor.

        So many people will come on here with opinions, article clippings and quotes but none of that means anything unless you’re willing to put it all (or a percentage of your portfolio) on the line and trade in real time.

        1. Bluebellkid

          Ok maybe hound is a little strong – let’s just say you were persistent in getting me to post a trade.

  2. JJHarmen

    It’ s encouraging to see GDX holding on to it’s early gains. I just might make some money off this miserable beast.

  3. RetireYoung

    From last thread, good call on fib level. I was typing below at must have been same time as you:

    Sold 25% of JNUG. Embarrassed to say it is 100% of my account. Between family and work I only have time to follow gold and miners. If hold can break 1232 then maybe 1240. Anyone else have 38.2% fib at about 1232?

  4. jake

    Sounds like a lot of extra paper work for Gary.
    Looking for more than a bounce in the dollar here.

  5. Adrian

    You, USA citizens cannot open a CFD account, but it could be really easier to open a eToro account and then track the results, with the same rules, because in eToro you can trade With or without leverage, and any trade shows the porcentaje of portfolio invested.
    eToro is a social trading CFD, so members can copy and track other members trades, and you can open an account with just 100 USD.
    Y trade only on Plus500 and now I have a S&P 500 sell short with a 1:300 leverage, and other sel short on EUR/CHF with 1:200 leverage, and Plus500 have fixed leverage for every instrument, so I cannot be in this challenge.

    Good trading all.

  6. Gary Post author

    A free contest with a cash prize.

    What earthly reason is there not to participate other than you might not be as good of a trader in real time as you would like everyone to believe?

  7. Spanky

    Miners acting weak so far today relative to the pop in gold and silver. I’ll admit its better than gapping down, but the miners today are treating today’s pop in the metals as nothing more than noise and, to me, demonstrates that the path of least resistance is still down. If the miners close well off the opening price, I’ll take it as pretty bearish.

    1. Gary Post author

      The day has barely begun. How in the world could you possibly know where they will close?

      1. Spanky

        Where did I say I knew where they would close? I am not particularly liking the action so far (from a long’s perspective), but that could change by EOD.

  8. Spanky

    Absolutely hilarious that the market is rallying today on the back of abysmal retail data. It just goes to show you that the explicit Fed put is going to take the market higher and higher.

    Good new is good news and bad news is good news. It just doesn’t matter anymore and really hasn’t ever since Bernanke wrote his oped piece stating that the Fed’s goal with QE was to raise asset prices. Well it did, and the Fed has created a monster as a result.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll say it again. Bubbles are driven by emotions, low interest rates and too much money chasing an asset. They have nothing to do with the latest economic data.

      I would also point out that current economic data has nothing to do with future economic data. The data in the summer of 2012 was very slow but it picked up by the end of the year and on into 2013 and 14.

      1. Spanky

        GDX is putting in an “outside week up” candle this week. It a bullish reversal marker, but can be negated if we close below 21.03 next week.

  9. zkotpen


    Weren’t we talking about GDX hitting the 50 day SMA a while back?

    I still like that idea… not before a bear trap style pullback, but later in this daily cycle.

    1. Christian

      The 50 DMA is definitely in the cards, if not more…

      You should think about opening a paper trading account so that you can learn how to trade the Miners and Precious Metals while taking shots at the currencies. Currencies is also where I started πŸ™‚

  10. desertsun999

    Gary, the 8yr cycle lows are in for both gold and silver. At the end of the year remember this post and who called the bottom correctly. Silver has responded just the way it should have with an extended cycle time this cycle. This entire set up is absolutely perfect in terms of what has happened so far. THE BOTTOM IS IN……..invest accordingly.

    1. Gary Post author

      Heck I’ve been saying that for a year and a half now.

      You’re kind of late to the party aren’t you?

  11. desertsun999

    Gary, you want me to play your game…….hows this. Put 100% in USLV and by the time April 2018 rolls around it will be the winner by far!

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t care if you play or not. If you choose to try again then send me the email with price.

      1. desertsun999

        No just remember this post because it will blow the doors off anything that you do!

        1. Gary Post author

          Maybe, maybe not.

          I have to try to avoid ICL’s as subs freakout if they get caught in an ICL.

          If you had been holding all the way through this from the February top you would already have a massive drawdown. You have the luxury of pretending to be Old Turkey but doing so after letting an ICL go by.

          1. Nada


            Not sure if you are trying to say the ICL has passed, but I would not be so sure about that.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’m not suggesting the ICL has passed. As of right now this is just a DCL. The dollar hasn’t even rallied yet.

            However if the Fed and trump are determined to push the dollar down then who knows when we will get the final ICL. The currencies no longer respond to sentiment or cycles. They are driven by central bank manipulation as the currency wars continue and intensify.

            If the Fed can prevent the dollar from having an ICL for who knows how long then it is possible gold is forming an ICL.

  12. Spanky

    GDX is putting in an β€œoutside week up” candle this week. It a bullish reversal marker, but can be negated if we close below 21.03 next week.

  13. dboz

    Sold all my UWT this AM. I am all cash for now. Expecting a pullback in oil. May reload a after a buck or two cheaper again. Time to take some money.

    Selling my USLV may have been a mistake but I think today is a possible BIG BULL TRAP for one last sucker rally before we roll over. Time will tell. Plenty of time to board the train before we shoot the moon, if that is the path.

    Looking for my next contest entry also. I am at least back positive now.

    1. bluelagoon

      Good play on UWT dboz – I’m also thinking UWT is due for a pullback but then more upside.

  14. RetireYoung

    Pattern continues. Gold has made a higher high than the most recent wiggle on July 6th and GDXJ has not (yet) made a higher high. I’m thinking that if GDXJ fails to break $32.67 today or early next week that will be a bearish signal. I was thinking gap fill but starting to look like it won’t get there.

  15. Don

    We have new all time S&P high, led by the tech and semi sectors. Nothing has changed in terms of where the money is going.

    1. Gary Post author

      The half cycle low won’t be due till early August. The Nasdaq is only 6 days into a new intermediate cycle. It’s pretty dangerous to be shorting right now unless you are just trying to scalp a day trade.

      The big money will be in riding the Naz to 10,000 or 20,000.

      1. jake

        I’ll be rummaging though the bargain bin at GoodWill
        While the big leveraged money are checking their phones on the 9th to see how much money they’ve made by cocktail hour.

  16. Don

    The Canadian dollar has been relentlessly rising and doing so without any appreciable rise in crude oil.

  17. desertsun999

    Forget about playing the wiggles. This is the setup in the PM’s that has taken 6 years to get to. All the daytrading bullshit talk at these levels is just that……..bullshit. Be smart enough to recognize a gift when it arrives.

    1. dboz

      Plenty of time to board the train IF it takes off. Certainly can be a headfake here before another nose dive. Not worried down at these levels. Should have multi month rally if it runs. Missing the bottom by a few days or even a week still leaves a lot of upside. Buying now and then another catastrophic collapse would not be fun.

  18. desertsun999

    There is no reason not to be at least 50% invested in PM’s. If the market wants to give it to you cheaper then invest the other 50%. The banksters are not going to make this easy. At these levels the pm investor has the advantage over the house. That advantage is TIME! The cycles bottoms have made time your friend. That is the most important thing to embrace right now.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s easy to say, but subs with real money on the line won’t be able to survive a serious ICL if the dollar rallies and miners go below the December low.

      You have the luxury of ignoring the wiggles but in real life with real money it’s not possible to ignore a huge wiggle.

      Now you see what I have to account for.

      1. Christian

        Especially if you’re playing with triple leverage.

        Nevertheless, the SMT portfolio is STILL paper money. You would garner more respect and more credibility if you traded 100,000 of your REAL money.

        1. Gary Post author

          I have a lot more than that of my own money riding on the bubble call in the stock market. And I’ve repeatedly stressed that subs just focus all or most of their capital on stock portfolio trades.

          The commodities are stuck in ranges, and it’s hard to make money in a trading range.

    2. Nada

      Statements like the ones above are the real dangers of financial blogs. When someone speaks as if they know with a certainty the bottom is in and that you need to be up to your eyeballs in alligators, then its best to pass. A small entry is fine if you have FOMO, but to encourage an investment of 50% of your portfolio in an asset as volatile as commodities warrants the asshole of the day award.

      1. desertsun999

        Tell me what you really think….LOL. My response…..Timmmmmmmmmmme is on my side….yes it is! You can’t top the Stones.

      2. desertsun999

        By the way Nada, I’m not suggesting 50% of your portfolio. I am saying 50% of what you plan to allocate to the pm sector. I thought that was obvious. Otherwise in the above statement I would be saying to invest 100% of your portfolio in one sector which I think everyone can agree is ludicrous.

  19. Don

    Just about every stock market in the world is in on the rally party, even those whose central banks are not buying stocks directly.

  20. Don

    Over the past 9 years, one strategy that has not worked well is to buy out of favor sectors. Remember the term ‘ Commodity Super Cycle’ that was supposedly going to be driven by the newly minted middle class of China and India? That complete opposite happened with commodities dead in the water since 2012.

    1. Gary Post author

      But they had a massive inflationary surge in 2008. Are you conveniently forgetting about that?

      That was clearly at least a mini bubble in oil. It takes time for that to recover. Look how long it took the Nasdaq to recover from its bubble in 2000.

      This time the bubble when it comes will be in the precious metals with probably only an echo bubble in oil.

      But first the bubble in stocks has to mature and pop before liquidity starts to seriously flow back into the commodity sector. Right now only very smart money with a long time horizon is taking positions. Most retail traders don’t have to foresight to see what’s happening nor the patience to let it play out.

  21. JJHarmen

    The PM rally looked so promising this morning. Now, not so much. Very tight range on GDX today.

  22. TraderPete

    SLEP, that was a great call when you said gold and silver should bottom on July 10th. I took advantage of that call and bought some silver near the lows on Monday. I’m now making a ton of money. Thanks again for that excellent call.

  23. Christian

    Gary — if this is indeed a DCL taking shape in Gold. How many days are you looking at before the final roll over? I’m thinking early August.

  24. Bluebellkid

    Orders in to sell AAOI @ 86.00. Stock is so far out of the upper band and has made such a huge move in such a short time I think I will take my $10/share profit and wait to see what happens.

  25. desertsun999

    As the weekend approaches take the time to take a look at the long term setup in gold and silver. Going all the way back to 1976 take a look at all of the 8yr. cycle lows on gold up to the present time. Next take a look at silver. Silver alternates a pattern of 7yr to 9yr to 7yr to 9yr based off of golds 8yr cycles. This cycle was the extended 9yr cycle for silver. The flash crash that we had just completed the 9yr cycle on silver which should open up blue sky trading from here. Even if we get a little more weakness…..its a gift. Accept it and politely say Thank You.

    1. ocram

      What I really think is interesting is that gold/silver stocks are underperforming gold and silver since 1996 (when gold barely moved and gold stocks went to the moon).
      In 2016 there was the first attempt for a reverse (in the first 6 month of 2016 gold/silver stocks had one of the best performance in the history of financial markets).
      This could mean that gold/silver stocks could go up with the stock market whereas gold/silver go sideways .

  26. Bluebellkid

    I got out and it traded about two minutes above 86.00 and then pulled back. I have had a $10 profit a couple of times this past year and sat there and watched them sell off so not taking a chance on this one. ACIA was one that I had a quick $10 profit and it started pulling back and is still pulling back. I got out with a profit but could have been much better.

    1. jake

      Nothing new there, what states always do in alleged budget shortfalls…foist another tax scheme.

  27. bluelagoon

    Anyone care to chime in on the daily trend? My thoughts are:

    Oil – going up – new DCL and perhaps even ICL – potential small pullback next week
    Gold – going up – potentially new DCL – will see if it breaks the upper trendline early next week
    Natural Gas – going up – perhaps we’re at a half cycle low of a new DCL

    1. Nada

      Yeah I noticed that IHS. It will be interesting how this plays out. Apparently everyone expects dollar lower πŸ™‚

  28. dboz

    Oil could still have room to run but could also have a pullback here. I sold oil today. Wanted to lock profits before the weekend. If it does pull back, I will reload. No way are we getting a break out in oil on this move though.
    Gold could be breaking out, could be a big tease before rolling over next week. Of course this is my scenario playing out. Back and forth and slow grind that catches everyone off guard waiting for the pull back that never comes. Could be off to the races but volume says otherwise. Maybe in another month if the markets have a correction.
    Natty Gas heading up then a big turn down, probably next week we see a pull back. May even be a blood bath. Sold my UGAZ yesterday. Waiting for more direction and better position either way. I will buy above 13.05 or in the low 12’s/high 11’s if we pull back. No mans land right now and I wanted to lock profits for now.

  29. desertsun999

    With the large spec’s net long on the dollar there is no reason not to believe that we are headed for 93.00 on the dollar to form the head & shoulder pattern to take us to the 82 region.

  30. desertsun999

    I have to laugh at the stealth bull’s on this board. You guy’s would never make it in a world poker tour…..ha…ha. Everybody betting long but afraid to say something that might jinx themselves…LOL

    1. Nada

      Maybe everyone is just sending their trades to Gary – as the claims of making this and that on trades everyday sure has been silenced. Desertsun999, are you sending in your trades for the challenge? GL with your gold trades, next week should give us more clarity.

      1. desertsun999

        Nada, you & I are on way different time frames. You are scared of a short term drawdown whereas I welcome it as an opportunity. I look at what all the longer term charts are telling me. When you come to points in a bear market where people are so beaten down that they don’t want to accept what is staring them in the face you know your close to the end of the line. This is old turkey territory for somebody with a 1yr outlook. Could there be some more weakness……sure…….but like I said before, it will end up being a gift for anybody with intermediate time line. If you cannot believe in 40+ years of chart data then why bother looking at the charts at all.

        1. dboz

          Could be heading to all time lower lows in a year. If all the answers were in the charts, we would all be billionaires.

        2. Nada

          I am a swing trader, that is correct. I would agree that my time-frame is short term. I believe there is a strong possibility we could drop to 1180-1160ish area before this ICL is complete, as I see sentiment way too high. I didn’t comprehend your time frame as old-turkey so I apologize for the quip.

  31. Spanky

    Miners were faded all day long, and closed well off the gap up open price. That is pretty bearish action on a day in which GLD held strong most of the day and was up a good amount.

    The July 10 low will definitely be broken. If not next week, soon thereafter. No way in hell July 10 was a ICL. This action is way too weak.

    1. Robert

      This makes sense. Found it very interesting that Gary took a shot at Nugt. He is usually cautious. Said many times he would never try to play bounces from DCL late in the intermediate cycles

    2. Nada

      I am of the same thought. The SOS of -148m on GDX doesn’t hurt our outlook. It seems with the selling today and yesterday, they are not wasting opportunities to exit.

      1. Robert

        Nada, that makes alot of sense. It looks like the Hedge Funds are using this rally to sell or add new short positions? SOS almost daily

  32. dboz

    Mustang Sally must have gotten smoked on his JDST/DUST picks because he done walked off the ranch. Crying for updates on a daily basis to see who was winning after 3-4 days and now done rode off into the sunset.

    Feel bad for Big Daddy, he was on the crab and let it slip away a few days before the big payday. He was calling for all in SILVER and got a very nice run up after he sold. Oil, yep, big move.

    Many regulars are long gone. Dday, Ped/Sally, WallStJesus, BigDaddy, Primetime, Alexandru, Goild (vacation for a month he said).

    1. desertsun999

      I did not know that about BD. I feel bad about that as I was promoting a silver position at that time. That is the short term trading mentality that dominates this blog. At that time I had posted that my biggest fear was that silver would test the 14 dollar area. There are a number of silver extended cycle bottoms that have retested the lows before bottoming.

    2. Nada

      He has a good entry of 29.30ish and DUST closed at 31.78, but that’s a far cry from the high of 35.88. That’s what happens when you take naps during the day πŸ™‚ Don’t count the MS out just yet, as he has come accustomed to riding broncs.

      1. mustang sally

        Hello my good friend,

        Yes naps from trading is good for me. For interest you should compare hgd with dust. When both are getting wacked we are in trouble, not the case for the past few days, I believe my dust marker will hold true and the usd will ride ruff shod over everything.

        Mustang Sally

      1. Bob

        No criticism here, I’ll say facetiously, but the only time I’ve gotten reminded of all of that pathetic crap you were involved in is when you remind me. I’d rather forget it and let the blog move on.

        1. Christian


          I’m gonna tell you 2 things, feel free to write them down.

          1) I didn’t start any of it. If I had, I would take responsibility and apologize.

          2) I’m not one to put up with abusive/asinine bs from anyone. I don’t care that this is the internet.

          and 3) It most likely will happen again, because the world [and especially the internet] is full of morons with lots of time to waste.

          I hope this clears things up for you. Please feel free to pass this on to all of your friends.

          Yours truly,

          Another stranger on the internet πŸ™‚

  33. TraderPete

    Silver bottomed on July 10th, and that was a major low. There’s a strong divergence in the RSI and the TSA has also bottomed and is now playing catch up to price. Also, we now have two RSI crossovers. Therefore, I doubt that we will ever see those lows revisited. The secular bull market in both gold and silver is intact. Onward and upward. πŸ“ˆ ♉️

    PS: Silver cycles also indicate that July 10th was a long-term, multi-year low.

    1. Spanky

      I’m long silver miners, so I hope you are right. Today’s fading action in the miners was not exactly supportive that a major low in silver has been reached.

    1. dboz

      Yes, this appears to be the biggest issue. Selling rallies is bear market behavior so expect somewhat lower prices still to come unless something really sparks the metals. This rise in the metals was pretty much expected as a dead cat bounce rally. Maybe up to 1240ish yet then roll over to commence? If we go over 1250, THEN maybe time to think about heading back into the trenches. Until then, I am spent and exhausted. Moved back into easier plays that are trending.

  34. mustang sally

    Howdy , well the end of the week and a little lighter
    bot at 29.30 end of day 31.70 so 3412* 2.40 up 8000

    Would of bot jdst today if I had some more bingo money. Still nothing has changed.

    Riding into the weekend,

    Mustang Sally

  35. dboz

    Even after today, JNUG and NUGT are still below where I sold two days ago at the open. Just don’t see the volume to see things as bullish yet. It’s going to take BREAK OUT levels in the metals to get back big money to the sector IMO.

    1. matrix

      steve briese 100 for gold extreme bullish reading has been confirmed, from previous report as of 7-7-17. I posted to GS the extreme reading for gold, silver platinum….as very bullish…..Briese was correct, as usual.

  36. desertsun999

    I think next week we see a waterfall decline in the dollar down to 92.50. Monday, the metals will probably gap up & continue going up for the rest of the week. Then we get the 3yr cycle low in the dollar and a four month trading range…………hold on……….I got one more question for the magic 8 ball———–to be continued.

    1. Steffmeister

      It’s amazing how things shape up to fit your analysis and support your ideas 100%. I was very confused about the dollar weakness and the bottom and rally out of it in May as some predicted.

      Last week Janet jumped out and said some dovish stuff that didn’t support the dollar that much.

      NEWS = North East West South what is going on in the Zodiac haha,

  37. mustang sally

    Quiet night on the ranch, so i thought i would give you my marker for gold. anything below 1175 will be lights out. and dusty will kick the hell out those who think we are in a bull.

    Rockin the house

    Mustang Sally

    1. Steffmeister

      Nope we are not in a Bull! However I think we are in for a ride to the upside for X months. Then the shit will hit the fan in 2018 …

  38. Steffmeister

    Ok, some fireworks in the metals but a very lame response in many miners. Will it change on Monday or Tuesday next week? I said 15-17th of July, but the 15th is today a Saturday, so we got the turn in metals yesterday instead.

    Still valid info imo!

    July 12, 2017 at 5:07 am
    I do not want a major TURN to occur right now, The full moon has run it’s course about now I hope, I want to see a double bottom here, will we see 1205 again? I have no power about things just mentioned so let the market decide.

    The analysis I am working with has been in place for many months. The stuff about to happen on Saturday (not a trading day) so lets say Friday and or Monday/Tuesday is a break, no more sideways, no more down if that was the case before the inflection. These kind of things is very precise, months ahead you can forecast a turn within a couple of days.

    So yeah, there you have it, if a breakdown next week I am in big trouble …”

  39. dboz

    Don’t pat yourself on the back just yet. You need follow through on Monday. Like I said above, JNUG and NUGT were both higher earlier in the week than where they closed Friday, after the big rally. Not exactly confidence inspiring of a big up move coming.

    1. Steffmeister

      The fractal is derived from a low, so I am expecting a turn to the upside, but I might be very wrong. If a break of 1197 later, I will jump out in total panic …

  40. Bluebellkid

    GDX, GDXJ, NUGT, & JNUG all closed near the highs of the week which is good but volume was below average which is not good and all are still under their respective 50 DMA. If they can clear the 50 day on above average volume that would be a good sign.

  41. Steffmeister

    It’s not just the moon, saturn, sun, esoteric math and news that decides what is about to happen. The geopolitical violence is also a part of a turn. We got a violence peak tomorrow the 16th. Such events has a tendency to cluster around specific dates.

    Looking at some miners on my watch list they are already at an ΓΌber low, how much down potential still exists in markets?

    So yes another interesting week coming up in my humble opinion.

  42. Gary Post author

    I always wonder what people mean when they make this statement.

    “how much down potential still exists in markets?”

    Even a stock that has fallen to $1 can still lose 50% of its value by dropping to 50 cents.

  43. Bluebellkid

    Food for thought: USLV put in a new low this past week but reversed and closed near the highs of the week on the heaviest volume in the history of the ETN. Six of the last 10 weeks have been up weeks with the volume coming in above average on 4 out of the 6. It appears smart money is accumulating.

  44. Alexandru Popovici

    I am out of the contest; it is nonsense.
    My positions now were DGAZ, ERY, USLV and NUGT with relatively equal weights (depending on intrinsic volatility) and with a cumulated capital at risk of a bit bellow 6%.
    GL to ya all.

  45. mustang sally

    Good weekend to all

    Looks like alot of confustion on the interweb today, thats whats makes a crash, I would not be calling a crash until my markers were all hit, but my gut tells me the top in the market was Friday. thats all markets and a bottom on the usd. There’s alot of gov’t pensions to be paid.

    Just a gut call not a practical call.

    Relaxing in the home


    1. Bluebellkid

      With the action Friday IBD moved the markets from “uptrend under pressure” to “confirmed uptrend”. Here is an excerpt from last night’s Big Picture:
      Caution is in order despite the improvement in market conditions. Why? The new high on the S&P 500 came in timid volume. A change in a market’s character should have an emphatic quality. This change appears more tentative, though that could always change and some quality stocks have been breaking out.
      Also, Friday’s best performers had a conservative tilt. They included oil stocks, gold miners, food and tobacco. This is generally not the stuff of which great runs are made.

    2. Bigdaddy

      MS, I have the same feeling although i don’t know what pensions have to do with anything. Buy silver.

      1. mustang sally

        Hey my friend you are back, pretty boring without you, here is another for you how can all these bankrupt countries have the largest gold reserves. Will we have a wave of gold selling when the big daddy usd takes off, hmm

        Welcome back BD

        Mustang Sally

  46. Bigdaddy

    I am still around guys. I know many of you were relying on me for money making ideas but i wasn’t making any profit so i am studying my mistakes so that i don’t make them again. In a nut shell, i have been dead on with many calls but have sold to soon. Gotta change bad habits and control the emotions.
    Here is a tip for next week: i think the stock market is going to end the week lower. Also, buy silver even if it pulls back some. However, it makes new lows, then sell it and take the loss. Stay tuned as i iron out the kinks.

  47. Gary Post author

    Markets don’t top until retail Traders become extremely complacent and the advance-decline line starts to diverge. Neither one of those has occurred yet.

    Bear markets don’t begin without a catalyst. Over the last 80 years that Catalyst has been a surge in inflation which we don’t have yet.

    People will continue to try and pick a top and have for the last eight years but until the conditions for it materialize is just not going to happen. Central banks have just printed too much money.

    1. mustang sally

      Gary here is a quote from Einstein ” you cannot solve the problem with the same thinking that created it”
      not his exact words but you get the drift. You are exhibiting this behaviour and it may go south on you, but have to let me markers tell me. right now its just a gut call and it could be wrong.


      1. Gary Post author

        Actually I’m learning from history. The last two bubbles were created with ultra-low interest rates and too much money.

        It stands to reason that the same policy over and over will continue to produce the same result, namely more bubbles.

        The last bubble in real estate when it popped took down the stock market and the liquidity flowed into the commodity markets creating an inflationary spike that collapsed the economy.

        It’s reasonable to expect that the same policy will have the same result again.

        1. mustang sally

          Gary, I asked BD this question, maybe you have an answer why do bankrupt countries have the largest reserves in the world, do you think the IMF has this has collateral?

          Mustang Sally

  48. mustang sally

    So I will ask 2 questions today. Can anyone answer why do bankrupt countries have the highest gold reserves and secondly does anybody see abx sub .10

    Come on everyone lets have an answer.

    Mustang Sally
    Killing time at the home.

      1. mustang sally

        Now Gary , the us has the world currency, so lets answer the question which countries in Europe have the largest gold reserves and is bankrupt and how come they don;t have to sell their gold.


        1. Gary Post author

          Germany has the largest gold reserves, followed by France and Italy.

          No country has enough gold to make even a small dent in their debt. At least not at current prices.

          1. mustang sally

            So Gary, if Italy, Greece, France, Portugal are in debt do you think they have to give up their reserves to the identity that has lent them the money?

  49. mustang sally

    and since I am really curious , the marker on xau is 75.37 before armagedon how low can $xau go. any guesses,


      1. mustang sally

        Hey Mexi

        Give me a break, I am bord stiff (ha) in this home, why don;t you answer my questions.


  50. mustang sally

    Ok last question before I take my sleeping pills, does anyone remember Brown’s. bottom Why did Britain have to sell their gold and who bought it. Is something like this going to happen again. My pills put me out for 12 hours so hopefully some smart guys give me the answers after they come back form church.

    Sleeping Sally


      Brown sold the gold reserves to ‘diversify’ the UK’s foreign reserves, he bought rather a lot of Euros with the proceeds as I remember. The year he did that the buzz went round that the bottom was in and like many peeps that year I bought some physical at around Β£205/oz. (you couldnt buy ETF’s then so it was buy physical or mining shares) I remember a very smart guy I know suggesting I buy and he also forecast that the top would probably be marked by the UK eventually buying back the sold bullion from the French. Apparently its what the government does regularly over here sell low and buy high.

  51. mexican

    Hi Ped!! Funny you just showed up a few weeks ago and pretending you are someone your not!!!
    Getting pretty tired of Mustang sally all over the blog, Just come out of the closet once and for all!!
    This Blog is informative to fellow investors and not a crap game!!
    Where ever you came from just please go home

  52. dboz

    Does anyone think energy is going to take one more dive lower in the next week or two? Maybe a little more upside here in oil and gas and then a swift quick bloodbath shakeout before taking off? I think I am going to just wait and see if it shoots straight up from here or we get one more decent sized dip.

    Regretting selling my USLV this past week. Took a huge dip and shook me out. Maybe I get lucky and get a decent pull back? Maybe not.

    Staying clear of the miners for now. Don’t trust them compared to the metals. Metals could rise and miners don’t follow…….again?

    No trades for the contest right now either. Will wait for the start of the week to see what unfolded here over the weekend.

  53. dboz

    Oil with RSI increasing and price is lower and now entering into overbought zone also. Price moves a little over 47.50 then another collapse in rapid fashion?

    Maybe something like this coming as one last scare and shakeout to build for a bigger move?

    1. Gary Post author

      If oil goes above $47 next week then we will have a pattern of higher highs and higher lows. That would be a pretty good sign that the YCL is complete and a new intermediate cycle is in the advancing phase.

      1. dboz

        Thanks Gary. I am going to wait it out here. Maybe we don’t pull all the way back, but I think we get one more shake out with a decent drop soon to make everyone think it’s rolling over. If we do pull back I am going to reload. If we take off from here I am just going to miss it. I had a good run up and it looks dicey to me.

        I think we just give a surge above 47.50 then drop quickly.

        Waiting to see if Natty Gas does the same before I get on board.

        I am leaving the metals alone for now. Upside here looks good but after 18 months of my nuts in the wringer, I have capitulated until I see a huge move to prove this is more than another 1-2 weeks up followed by another Cascade sell off.

        I have been beaten over the head enough and lost a lot of money in the metal the past year.

        1. Gary Post author

          I keep telling people the easy money is in the stock market for now. Gold and oil are stuck in trading ranges. I think energy shares will give us a nice run but they sure have been taking their time about getting started.

  54. Steffmeister

    The date of the timeline 7-17.2017

    “777 is used on most slot machines in the United States to identify a jackpot” πŸ™‚

    Next week we will find out …

    1. victor

      when we start seen job creation over 200k in a month forward then we can talk abt inflation around the corner.
      Regarding gold. Negative bonds does not pushing gold up for now. The only driver for a gold now I see in a sovereign banks failure, but that system is in a good plan for survival of each other. When that system fail then we will see gold 10,000$. For now, we can hope just for dovish talking and that can only bring gold to 1300$ most.
      Guys, forget gold for at least 7-8 month, it’s headache for now. Remember my statement.

  55. mustang sally

    Good morning everyone;

    Well rested now ready for another day, just as I thought , crickets. With all your charts and indicators are you forgetting what drives this machine,. If you can’t answer my questions I think you may be in serious trouble. What if all those gold reserves are forced into the market like Mr. Browns bottom. what will it be called this time the PIGS bottom.

    Off to church.
    God Bless

    Mustang Sally

  56. dboz

    Sally, you and ZKOTPEN need to stop using a translator to post up in English. It is nothing but confusion and non sense. WTF are you talking about? Mr. Browns bottom? Pigs bottom? Seriously, you guys talk in Nostradamus quatrains. Just make a decipherable statement without all the nuance and hidden meanings. Just say what you mean, not coded with a quatrain.

    1. Steffmeister

      The Gordon Brown-nose bottom. I think he sold out most of UK/Englands gold reserve in year1999- 2001 at the very bottom. I also think the buyer was the Rothschilds.


      I want a review of the US gold holdings if they still exists?

      To keep this pyramid game going Trumpet needs to double effort in 4years …

      Here is Gary’s report:

      How about an audit of Swedens gold reserve …. HAHAHAHAHAHAHA, also sold out at the bottom, now I think we have 10-12 coins left!

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