Strictly Necessary Cookie should be enabled at all times so that we can save your preferences for cookie settings.
If you disable this cookie, we will not be able to save your preferences. This means that every time you visit this website you will need to enable or disable cookies again.
Yes, the stock market is where you’ll find the easy money but once you identify “Support/Resistance” within a range, trading is actually not that hard, and timing a trade almost to perfection is an exercise one should not shy away from because the ability to pin point and/or spot that sudden shift in momentum within different time frames is how you become one heck of a trader — just like me, Lol 🙂
Don — Apples and oranges my friend and in case you hadn’t noticed, the SM isn’t stuck in a sideways consolidation; it’s trending like a mother F*cker..!
I’ll say it again. One can win on 90% of one’s trades and still lose money over time. The Bollinger band crash trade produces a profit between 86-92% of the time, and yet when used on individual stocks it has a negative expectancy over time.
The only way to back up that statement is to enter the challenge and let’s see if you end up with more money in your account come July of next year.
Haha! I knew you would take the bait and mention the challenge Gary. Look, I don’t give a damn about the challenge. The fact of the matter is that the SMT portfolio is made of PAPER, until that changes and you start trading REAL MONEY IN REAL TIME, your credibility is as good as mine my friend 🙂
Your biggest mistake when I was a sub was shutting down the SMT portfolio – something you could not do if you were trading real money – on an emotional whim and then charging people double the amount for a subscription, Lol! A real circus sideshow if you ask me.
I am trading real money. I’m doing exactly what I keep advising subs to do. Focus on the stock market. All of my personal investments are in the stock market trades. I have no desire to fight with a whipsawing metal or energy market, and never in a million years would I trade the currency markets.
We made 15% last month. That was real time trades, not the imaginary trades boasted about on this blog. Until you start making real trades with real percentages you simply can’t brag about being a great trader. You can win 3, 4 5 times in a row and then have one losing trade that takes it all away. Step up and put your ass on the line like the rest of us, pussy. (there that should goad you into action 🙂 )
Yes the dollar should bounce to the 50 DMA, but the real question is will this just turn out to be another left translated daily cycle and the collapse just continues? If so then gold will continue to rally and the ICL has been stuck.
I’m not talking about what you do with your personal investments behind closed doors. I’m talking about the SMT portfolio — that ain’t real money and it should be!
Was you recent energy and gold trades on paper only?
I assume subscribers are trading real money so I don’t know what you are talking about, not real money.
I’m trying to help people make money in their accounts. Many are novice traders. I’ve covered this a hundred times if I’ve said it once. It’s too difficult and erratic in the metals and energy market right now. If one insists on fighting with either of those markets don’t use more than 20% of your portfolio. Focus most or all of ones capital on the stock market. In that market you not only have a strong bull trend you also have PPT protection.
LOL. All that BIG talk to compensate for drinking to much soy milk Christian?
When we stop hearing he deflationists calling for the next crash and they start calling or 100,000 Dow then we will be getting close to the top.
Right now there are still way too many people looking for a repeat of the 2009 crash. It wasn’t until the 50’s that most investors finally abandoned the expectation for the next big crash. This is what happens when one lives through a huge bear market.
We’re seeing that mentality in miners as well. Many traders are still looking for lower and lower prices. That’s what a 90% bear market will do.
The miners are eventually going to generate one of the largest bull markets ever but we have to get through this basing phase first.
The stock market is also going to generate one of the largest bubbles of all time. We are already half way there. That is what the talk of a deflation in asset values is all about. So its makes no sense to dismiss a discussion about a crash since that is a realistic expectation once a generational equity bubble terminates. Granted however, the deflation camp has been ahead of itself for several years already. They are anticipating something that could still be a couple years in the future. But to not be aware of the inevitable fall that accompanies all periods of excess is pure folly and we must remain vigilant for none of us know the day and the time it is coming.
Let’s talk about the Buck.. Despite all the correlations you Goombas like to throw around, the US Dollar IS the political bulldog around here and will have the most influence on Gold. Watch this coming week how much pressure the dollar is able to put on Gold. This is key!
if Gold shows resilience then I’ll have to agree with Gary’s perspective which is: The ICL has already been struck and this is just a HCL in an advancing intermediate phase. However, I’m not buying into the whole “dead cat bounce in the dollar” prognosis and I think the Dollar will, at the very least, bounce back up to the 50 DMA before rolling over.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/fnt4ph4a/
The US dollar [worth F*ck all in my opinion] is still the world’s reserve currency and won’t just die and go away. This is what I call a controlled demolition folks — just like 9/11! Yes, your Government is capable of all kinds of evil deeds in order to push a political agenda. This time is no different.
I’m not religious but God bless America 🙂
my analysis agrees with this as well.
Yeah, God better bless America. We have a disaster waiting to happen with you know who in the WH. And then what do you think will happen with the usd.
What disaster do you think will happen?
I live near Chicago, a city of insanity. You want to see a disaster, come and see it for yourself.
No need. You came to us before we could go there.
Gary, long time SM bull but prefer to sell some longs and raise cash here.
No market top yet, but it’s not a baby bull either and entering SM hurricane season September – early October. A couple of other things that don’t fit the narrative of the market averages new highs: The double top in the transports in March and July, waning momentum, Nasdaq not following the Dow to fresh peaks, two recent “outside days” as happened on June 9 and July 27. Lots of black holes out there with individual stocks….TEVA on Friday.
Bet a burrito… market’s roll over and consolidate the next few months, before rallying year end.
Hello To All:
What is/are the best low cost vehicle(s) (ETFs or sectors/stocks) to buy for the bull market in stocks, as Gary says to invest in? Any suggestions would be appreciated. Thanks.
QQQ, SPY, DIA
You were supposed to say “get a subscription to find out”. LOL!!
As an aside and a follow up to my post earlier today I just read that Armstrongs actual call is for the DOW to rise to a level between 38,000 and 42,000 in a near vertical fashion once the phase transition is done. In other words, there will be a pullback and then a slingshot to the heavens. Perhaps that pullback is coming this fall. I have no idea as I can’t time declines but I do believe he is going to be correct that we will see a spectacular bubble formed. It’s that damned hangover that follows that keeps me awake at night.
Armstrong Economics — The Monetary Crisis Cycle
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/uncategorized/wec-november-3-4-2017-the-monetary-crisis-cycle/
This was inevitable the day QE1 began. QE 2 3 and 4 just exacerbated the problem. And then when the bubble in the stock market pops that liquidity is going to flow into the commodity markets giving us a second bubble in the precious metals.
Some capital will no doubt escape the collapse and position itself ahead of the decline. We would call that the smart money I suppose. Most won’t ever make it out of the vortex though Gary and the reason is that asset valuations are largely fictional because they are based predominantly on what people believe an asset to be worth.
Another way of saying this is that the total value of all real estate at its peak in Los Angeles (for example) is not a fixed number that can be sold and turned into bank cash for use elsewhere. It is mathematically impossible because of the way valuations are calculated in the first place.
As we know, when a home in a neighborhood sells below market value then all other homes in that neighborhood are impacted more or less equally. So it is factually impossible for everyone to sell at the top and extract all the theoretical value from their home.
That is to say that a trillion dollars in asset values based on today’s inflated values might in reality fetch just a small fraction of their estimated worth at the time of disposition. As prices fall they beget more selling and in turn prices fall lower yet. The longer you wait to sell during a decline the less money you will get for your much prized home.
Where did all the money go then?
Well it did not go anywhere because it did not exist in the first place except in peoples minds and in their perceived idea of what their home was worth. But since most will never get that price except the very few who literally sell at the peak before the decline begins there cannot therefore be a trillion dollars to shift into other assets.
More to the point, stock market valuations work in the same way. But on a gap down we can see prices erode quickly and all that theoretical money simply vanishes into nothing. Just like that, it’s all gone. And then we will learn how fictional stock prices really are.
The problem is that while asset wealth can literally disappear, the debt sustains and does not go away. Leverage in the market is just one example. So your home (or stocks) can become nearly worthless due to the emotional content of the market while the mortgage or debts you hold on it continues to have real value.
Thus, asset prices can drop radically but the debt endures.
And it is this strange relationship between people’s belief in what something is worth versus what the debt says is the real value that causes the inevitable corrective response wherein we face large scale defaults in worst case scenarios.
I think that is where we are going once this bubble period in stocks, bonds and real estate finally comes to a conclusion and its my opinion that it is going to be traumatic for most families as it will arise during a period of slowing growth, rising unemployment and increasing automation combined with a demographic cliff.
Unless we can collectively get our savings house in order and our debt under control in the near future, the inevitable collapse will be devastating for the majority of the population and the effect will be global.
We are not really as rich as we think we are.
One thing I disagree with is in where the debt is. The public has mostly deleraged. The debt has been moved onto government balance sheets. But governments can counterfeit money. So I don’t think that debt will be deflationary as governments will just print more money but I think that liquidity will flow into the commodity markets instead of the stock market once that bubble pops.
Unlike the thirties, we don’t have a fixed money supply so governments can increase the money supply infinitely if they are willing to risk the currency.
Gary,
lots of gold bugs on youtube (bix weir cliff high the dollar vigilante etc…) are pumping cryptos now.
Clif High even said that there is too much gold on the planet and that its value could go to zero…yes ZERO. 🙂
What do you think about it?
What would you use to invest on bitcoin and company?
Bitcoin is well into its bubble phase and becoming attractive to the public. It’s dangerous to be investing in Bitcoin this late in the game.
Im not sure how long you’ve been listening to Cliff High – but he was actually making many of the same types of predictions back around 2012….and almost noone of them panned out.
He dropped off various radio progams for a couple of years…..and now within the last 12-18 months, he’s reappeared on quite a few different networks/programs and making the same type of calls/predictions.
I believe he made the call back in Feb of this year that Silver would most definitely be over 100 an ounce by the end of year! That call was made on the USA watchdog program.
If you’ve listened to him, he’s also said that USA is hiding a derelict/crashed Alien spacecraft in a forbidden zone of Anartica. And that’s why Obama took a secret trip up there.
He further says the US discovered a massive Pyramid underneath some melting ice that is uniquely similar to the Pyramid on the Giza Plateau.
He could turn out to be correct on the last two calls – but the sliver call is looking like a definite dud.
I don’t trust the US government at all, but at the same time some of these guys are a lot like Alex Jones, and are saying alot of super bombastic things so they can draw in a ton of web traffic to their sites for advertising and selling products.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=TzNeg9D-EZ4
Thank you rttpd,
yes I know Cliff High is a little wierd 🙂
And on the last Greg Hunter’s interview he sound even more weird:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmWg7NRx-Ow
Ocram ——
I just listened to the podcast. Very interesting…..but as you see he tossed the monkey wrench in right away when he starts mentioning ” strange energy ” from “space” is what’s behind all the internal and external strife. ( Trump /Russia/ North Korea)
Much of his little treatise on the cryptos and how the whole dollar system is dying — is light years ahead/out-in-front of anything the MSN will ever report.
I listened to the podcast. I learned nothing except this guy was talking his book.
I think the guy will be wrong on the crypto’s. The blockchain technology is very useful, but his thesis will not play out. 13k bitcoin in 6-7 months? Sounds like the folks calling for 10k gold back in 2009. I am extremely skeptical. and clearly he did not read the Senate bill put forth by Senator Grassly.
Ped, I like your narrative…. I read Armstrong and agree with his assessment. I thing to note is that he was calling for strong dollar and we are not seeting that right now.
I am expecting a drop for a few months in stocks before the doubling effect… QQQ has already topped and rolling over…
Dollar could go up to 97 before heading down to 90 or so…
Those look like pennants in the SPX and Nasdaq. Those are usually continuation patterns.
The Dow may make it to 23,000 before a larger correction starting after the September FOMC meeting.
The PPT certainly isn’t going to allow any serious correction ahead of Jackson Hole at the end of the month.
23K on DOW is very likely but QQQ is already running on fumes… will be tortuous for dow at the least before collapse for a correction after FOMC
If we drop below the DIP, just remember there are very few shorting this market. Meaning there is no one who will cover on the drop. If buyers don’t step up as usual and buy the dip it could get ugly. Not sure how many want to be buying up here either? Still holding some TVIX.
The PPT can buy at any time to halt corrections. Notice how the market has been rising into every FOMC meeting, Humphrey Hawkins speech, and I expect it will be at, or near all time highs for Jackson Hole as well.
We don’t have free markets anymore. This is why I keep telling people not to short.
Good morning,
Best wishes for a good Monday making
good money.
More airports for me today.
But what kind of a day would it be today?
Good Monday to all;
Has anyone looked at the vix lately, is vix ready to take the market for a ride, it might if it can break the marker at 12.00. the market could start flamin. And for those who can;t read it MUSTt get above the marker and hold before chaos could happen, just like 92.60 12.50 and 10.00
Shortin Sally
sorry above should read 93.6-, need to correct before the petty people spot it and have to post about,
MS
Morning all,
Gold still looking bearish here as we build out a lowered ceiling in the slope I have recently posted here:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/07/gold-bearish-context/
Morning Nilo: Are you here just to push your blog, if you are you need to enter the online bingo contest
prove yourself before pushing you blog
MS
MS –
Absolutely not – all the content I post here is free and very tradable in real time for any here who wish to use it.
In other words, I am not just cherry picking charts and trades that have worked in the past and posting them here to “push” the blog.
For example, anyone who wished to follow me on getting short gold last week could have easily done so using the variety of charts I posted here…
Just here to post my thoughts and exchange trading insights – nothing more.
Best,
Ex
Sir Nilo: So are you in the on line bingo game. As Gary says it will show how good you are?
MS
Hey Ex. I think MS is saying that you should enter Gary’s trading contest, so we can see results. However, I do enjoy the flow of ideas, so please continue to share.
How do I enter?
If it is track recorded people are looking for, I have publicly posted my last three recent trades on the blog here:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/recent-calls/
I will continue to post charts in real time here as people seem to find them helpful/tradable too.
Best,
Ex
If you had your fork positioned right you wouldn’t be outside the channel or need sliding parallels.
No volume today so far. We all wait for the USD to show us our course. Theta chewer.
Nada, thanks for pointing out BOW SOS indicator, I find it useful.
I bought a very small position in AG at 6.21 but sold already at 6.31, because more downside seems to be coming. Have this idea that the silver miners are leading the dive into the ICL..
Yes, it is a good tool to add to your repertoire. You have to remember that the data is delayed for about the first hour in the morning and then its updated every 15 mins. I certainly do not believe it collects data from any dark pool trades.
You also have to note, if an asset closes green for the day, you are not going to see any report of BOW – so it may have occurred early in the morning and then it drops off report due to asset turning green. I see this happen often on the SPY. I have a scripted the process now, so I can automate the process of checking the report. However in regards to miners, it appears they like to buy at the end of the day. I have watched L2 many times to confirm that its not delayed data from end of day trades.
With that said, its certainly not without error. However, I have watched it for some time and I would say that its been accurate with large numbers 80-90% of the time.
EUR/USD preparing for another drop down?
The reports of the Nasdaq’s demise may have been premature.
The day isn’t over, but as of right now the Nasdaq is trying to break higher out of its pennant consolidation.
Strange action today, it seems volume has been removed from the entire market.
Canadian dollar down 6 consecutive trading days and crude oil is responding by rolling over. Looks like that was the top as I was asserting when it peaked. This is not bullish for gold as crude is correlated with it recently so a continuation is a concern for pm longs.
Only an idiot would believe that the price of crude oil is somehow dictated by the lowly Canadian dollar.
Only an idiot eh? That’s why the correlation is discussed on the Federal Reserve blog, by the Globe and Mail, the NYT and there is even a link to the concept in Investopedia. The relationship is so well known it is probable you are the only person in the investment community who is not aware of it. Obviously they don’t trade currencies in Regina!
Are you embarrassed by your lack of skill yet?
————————————————————————————————–
Why Do Oil Prices and the Canadian Dollar Move Together?
https://www.thoughtco.com/oil-prices-and-the-canadian-dollar-1147845
How & Why Oil Impacts The Canadian Dollar (CAD) – Investopedia
A 10-year analysis of the correlation between the Canadian currency (against the US dollar) and oil prices show that there is a 0.78 positive relationship
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/021315/how-why-oil-impacts-canadian-dollar-cad.asp#ixzz4p5YKvfhQ
How Oil Moves with USD/CAD
https://www.babypips.com/learn/forex/black-crack
The Canadian Dollar is Being Driven by Oil Prices Again
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/cad/5863-the-canadian-dollar-is-at-risk-of-more-gains-on-the-back-of-rising-oil-prices-says-bmo-capital-markets
Crude Oil – USD/CAD Correlation Charts
http://www.stockexshadow.com/crude-oil-usdcad-correlation-chart
“The CAD robustly maintains the highest oil correlation in foreign exchange space over time,” Société Générale strategist Olivier Korber said in a new report, referring to the Canadian dollar by its symbol.
How the Canadian dollar would crumble if the oil shock gets even worse
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/top-business-stories/how-the-canadian-dollar-would-crumble-if-the-oil-shock-gets-even-worse/article28070402/
Time for you to do a little research on the Canadian dollar / crude oil correlation. I can’t help you otherwise since self learning is your own job.
Of course there is a correlation! The Can dollar is a petro currency and if crude is going up, the Can dollar often responds accordingly but it is far from an exact correlation. The Can dollar has been the strongest performing currency in the world during the past three months (thanks to a plunging US currency), while crude has basically gone sideways. How do explain that with your ridiculous assertion that crude is “responding” to the direction of the Can dollar? Right, you can’t!
The Can dollar certainly doesn’t lead worldwide crude oil prices, period. As usual, you have proven just how little you understand about how the markets work.
“Of course there is a correlation!” — Don from Regina
—————————–
Finally you did a little Google search at my prompting and learned something new. Even showing off your new knowledge already. It must feel like being off training wheels eh? Indeed, the CAD/Crude correlation is well established and one of the best of all currency-commodity pairs and it has been in place for many years already. It is really astonishing you never knew that until today although I was already aware you were not a very informed trader. I just didn’t know you were that ignorant of such a well know fact. The correlation runs at .78 according to Societe’ General. Why is not even relevant. You don’t need to know the reasons for technical trading. Only that the relationship is strong and can be traded consistently.
Good for you Don. You made a big breakthrough today. Next you will be on a ten-speed.
Ped
Are you saying West Texas pricing is dependent on the Canadian dollar? That does sound a little far fetched.
Ped: As a Canadian, I am well aware of the correlation between crude oil and our dollar. The issue is, which one leads? Yet again, you are trying to deflect focus from a direct question that you can not answer. Allow me to repeat my question:
How do explain that with your ridiculous assertion that crude is “responding” to the direction of the Can dollar?
Why does anyone engage with this disagreeable little man? I am no expert on the markets but it’s pretty clear to me that he is not as informed as he pretends to be. There are several others here that know what they are talking about and say far less.
No JJHarmen, I am merely stating a fact which is that Canadian dollar is highly correlated to crude oil. Nothing more or less. As a general rule where one goes the other follows.
soxl lifting off on 8th day.
Hussman, anyone ?
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170807.htm
NYSE margin debt is at a record high, the VIX has never been this low for the long and the FED has stated that it intends to engage in what amounts to reverse QE, by shrinking it’s balance sheet. I don’t know how the SM is going to achieve the parabolic rise that so many (Gary, Armstrong, know-nothing Pedestrian, etc) are expecting. Where is the money going to come from? Other central banks? The baby boomers? The Millennials?
Hi! I am not educated enough to understand this “parabolic rise” stuff. I have no idea if it will happen or not. Maybe as well.
About liquidity, there is no dearth of it. It is everywhere, just look around. Those who have it are swimming in it and don’t know what to do with it.
On a global scale: American federal government alone is running a deficit of about 700B$! Add, states, counties, cities and what not, and the amount of money being injected becomes beyond comprehension. AND THIS IS AMERICA ALONE. Then we have two more biggies, Europe and Japan. And, my friend, don’t forget China and India. There is no shortage of liquidity at any level.
Will it go into grossly overpriced SM is a different question? But, then it has to go somewhere. At present every asset is overpriced except may be for gold if one wants to consider this useless stuff as an asset. Another, way to look at it is that currencies are losing their value fast and they are still GROSSLY overpriced. How long can it last? Any guess will do.
Don, those are good points and something to think about. Why would the central banks push the markets up to ridiculous heights for no reason, especially given how high the markets are already. What would their motive be?
Lena: Some have suggested that their motive is to first drive up the markets and then crash them in order to create chaos and then bring in the new world order with a single currency. I personally don’t believe that is the plan but I suppose anything is possible.
My question is, where is the money going to come from that drives a parabolic rise? Is the FED going to bring back QE? Why would they do that if the economy is doing as well as they say?
Stop thinking domestically for starters and open your mind. When assets in the US are rising and the dollar is also trending up then capital rapidly flows into the US from across the globe. At the moment the dollar is in a corrective decline however stock markets and real are are still rising. When the dollar reverses and rises again (and I guarantee you it will), then offshore capital will begin to pour back in from Asia and Europe. That is where the money will come from to keep powering US markets higher. It is, ironically enough, US dollars themselves being repatriated by domestic investors coming back home or dollars being bought by foreigners to invest in US assets. And as you know there are billions upon billions of dollars floating around the globe that could form part of the capital flood to lift these markets higher. Some have suggested the majority of US currency is still held abroad so there is no shortage of buying power available. You need to disregard what you know about domestic investors already being fully invested to appreciate that what is taking place amounts to capital flight towards security. With the Fed raising rates even the bond market will benefit in spite of so many claiming it is ready to roll over and die. So what is happening is that as other countries currencies depreciate the flows into the US will accelerate since its still the safest place to park capital. As the Euro falls deeper then US stocks will soar higher and similarly when the Chinese credit bubble bursts then we will see asset values in the America’s explode higher. In short, the fire power that will lead to the biggest bubble in history is grounded in the failures of places like Europe that will see a massive currency devaluation as a result of the collapse of the Euro itself and the project that was so poorly designed and secondly as an outcome of insecurity in Asia where the credit excesses are leading to unprecedented defaults. Any large war outside the US will mangle the regional currencies and send capital fleeing stateside. Even Canada will be a net contributor as the Canadian real estate bubble deflates and investors begin to bail out and head South of the border. That sucking sound you hear is the noise caused by the hurricane of dollars returning home for safety. It is the worst possible disaster but there is absolutely nothing any of us can do about it because this is simply the nature of the game when the credit cycle draws its last breathe and whole nations begin to bankrupt. When you catch wind of the first major failure like Italy, Spain or just about any country in South America it will be time to get heavily long US equities for the ride of a lifetime.
Just be sure to rotate into gold before the bottom falls out.
J
Of course, it goes without saying that the reason dollars were rising in the first place was because capital was already moving toward US shores and the dollar was being bid up as demand rose. This is one area where there is not a lot to quibble about and its how we can be fairly certain the dollars rise has not ended yet. The demand for US based assets is also what will allow the Fed to trim its balance sheet as those assets are sold back into a market more than willing to buy them up. The secondary impact however is that as more assets come to the market for sale the demand for dollars only accelerates further and this puts further pressure on the dollar which in turn will keep rising. On the other side of the coin we are seeing a shortage of dollars in developing parts of the world as the past excess dollar liquidity has been drawn in. The dollar shortage is actually a global phenomenon however it becomes most pronounced and visible in the weakest economies first and this is where the first big cracks develop. The reason for this should be obvious. Weak economies don’t have the ability of larger economies to access export markets and thus dollars are always a concern. But at a time when money is flowing back to the center the problem can become acute. What results is a double blow to the poorer nations as they attempt to compensate for their lack of dollars needed to feed import demands by running the currency presses at home and devaluing their own currency in response. So while US assets benefit by rising and the dollar follows them up on the road higher as demand increases, across the seas another country may be entering a serious period of inflation induced by the drain of its dollar reserves and an expansion of its own money supply to compensate. Rinse and repeat. It’s a vicious cycle that causes even more capital flight to the core and only deepens the problem. So another sign to watch for is sharp inflation breaking out in weak trading nations followed by defaults as dollar based debts cannot be paid. Most of South America defaulted this way in the 1930’s following the crash of 29 but it had little to do with US stocks. The problem was firmly planted in the way that US dollars gained in buying power and strength versus other currencies and this process ultimately broke the back of the system that had been holding itself together until then. The most feared thing that can happen at this point in history is that US dollars keep rising because that is what will eventually feed directly into the coming debt crisis and default cycle.
Pedestrian said: ” So your home (or stocks) can become nearly worthless due to the emotional content of the market ….? Would you please elaborate a little more on what constitutes the “emotional content of the market”.
Never heard of Tulip Mania?
Pedestrian, Tulips are beautiful flowers. They are worth something.
Unfortunately, much of the stuff being passed on as “valuable assets” today has negative value. When this thing collapses it will be a memorable firework. That goes without saying. What is not clear is the time frame. Interesting times can last for a looooong time, decades if not more. On , the other hand whenever it happens it will happen at a mind boggling velocity.
One has to view the situation in totality. As long America is the ruler of this planet, it will make sure that whatever happens, happens for its benefit. And, that situation is probably not going to change overnight.
True enough Vin. All I am saying is that speculative fevers that push asset prices to excessive levels always lead eventually to selling panics. And as we know asset values can wither (even to zero in severe instances) but the debt carries on. And this is the part of the terminus of a credit cycle that so few people seem to grasp. When we have become credit saturated and demand for new loans fall then buying slows and the speculative forces that drove asset prices up to nose bleed levels in the first place begins to reverse. What awaits is a day of reckoning where lower and falling asset values need to be reconciled with the debt that still remains. That is part of the cleansing process of course but when it happens on a large scale (this current asset overvaluation phenomenon is a global event) then the fall that is coming will be unusually difficult. The advent of widespread automation and jobs losses will make the correction more pronounced yet and that combined with an unusually large number of retirements across the developed world means that when we go down it could be a very long time before asset values return to prior highs (if ever in our lifetimes). When the tipping point arrives is harder to ascertain as you mentioned but there are some compelling charts that suggest it will be within the next 5 years. I am expecting a period of almost continuous asset deflation that runs longer than a decade before hitting bottom. We will truly look back on these times as the good old days.
Don,
Your home has intrinsic value and will not become worthless. Barring an extreme event (you discover you’re on a superfund site or are in a nuclear blast zone) only your equity position can become worthless.
You have no idea what you are talking about Mac. There is evidence present already to suggest the cyclical asset price declines that are coming will rival those of the Great Depression. At that time, Manhattan homes crashed in value by an average of 70% during the Dirty Thirties. Over on the other side of the continent in Vancouver Canada, Shaughnessy mansions that had been fetching millions in the 1920’s were selling for the price of taxes or being seized by the city and converted to boarding houses. In other words there were no buyers at any price. Meanwhile across the Prairies houses that went to auction found no bidders, were abandoned and went to weeds instead. Even in the recent past you could buy a Detroit home for 100 dollars if you were willing to pick up the annual tax bill. The house price crash of the day was exceptional in that it encompassed most of North America. There was not any place safe from the deflation that arose but rather the extent of losses was a matter of degree. In the Dakota’s homes literally crashed to zero in small towns while in cities people took to giving rooms to boarders just to cover the expenses and keep the heat turned on. In other words Mac, there is NO intrinsic value to houses and during a severe correction there are very few willing buyers. Prices are always just an imaginary number in the minds of the owners but at the end of the day it is the buyer who determines real worth. Unfortunately people like yourself who are already indoctrinated in the idea that houses never fall in value are going to learn the hard way how credit cycle contractions really work.
So if I just regurgitate a bunch of other people’s thoughts and conclusions that I read will I sound smart like you? After all you’ve given so many insightful conclusions about credit markets and currency flows, you must have a wonderful grasp of the basics. So how about you show us your fundamental understanding of something basic like how the yield curve works or why the correlation between the dollar and other assets change and what these tell you about the future direction of markets. I’ll even give you some time to find someone else’s thoughts and I bet that you still get it wrong.
Here’s bond basics 101 Ped. If I own a treasury bond, what happens to the dollar amount that I receive when bond prices fall?
If you do your homework, spend years on personal research, read up on history and keep as many charts as I do then sure, you might eventually sound like me. My thoughts and posts are my own, not regurgitated material from any other source. In this case you have been challenged to make your brief that homes have “intrinsic value”. So far you have not done very well standing up for yourself so I will suppose you really can’t make the case and that’s why you attacked instead of taking the time to prove your point. As they say, the ball is in your court. You can return it or just admit the “intrinsic value” comment of yours was little more than empty words.
Yeah you’re right. I have no idea what I’m talking about. Good luck to you.
Thought so…
I give you an easy out and you still act like a punk. You’re a complete clown Ped. I’ve read your rambling nonsense in the past and it’s obvious that you don’t understand even the basics.
Still waiting for your answer on the real estate conversation. Doubt its coming though given all the Red Herring, bluffing, posturing and distraction in your posts. If you have a point you can prove then just get on with it.
You made a non-sensical argument about how homes can become worthless due to the “emotional content” of the market. Homes in normal functional markets don’t become worthless. Your equity can become worthless but the asset retains value and the intrinsic value is based on either the replacement cost of the asset or the ability of a home to generate cash flow as a rental. You point out a few exceptional cases where either the carrying costs and/or the renovation costs would exceed the market values of the properties so there wasn’t an immediate market for the home.
Your turn…answer any one of the questions I posted. Take the easiest one
I’ll expand on this while you search around the internet for answers. Most people aren’t aware of this but homes are a depreciating asset. You can’t just straight line the asset to zero though because, while the structure depreciates, the land usually retains value or appreciates. The structure itself requires upkeep or maintenance capex to keep the value of the home from depreciating to zero.
As long as the value of the land retains some value, the home will have some value to an investor as long as the asset exceeds any liabilities associated with using or upgrading it. The exception is if the land becomes useless like in the case of a superfund site (liability would be much greater then the asset) or in situation like Detroit where the land was worth very little because noone wants to live there anymore and the cost to raze, renovate, carry, etc the structure would be worth more then the finished product would be worth.
Yeah, you are giving it to me by the book. All the buzzwords I might have expected but none of the answers we need. And all that you are talking about is valid as long as the system works and times are more or less normal. But what you are missing is that nothing is normal anymore in a credit contraction and all the means of measurement can and will go out the window until we arrive at the moment when a home is worth exactly what a buyer is prepared to pay. Unfortunately, during a serious cyclical asset deflation event the price of a home can indeed drop to exactly zero which is another way of saying no buyers will step forward to take even distressed lands. When a house is seized for non payment of taxes it has effectively fallen to nothing as well. When banks discover it is cheaper to burn or destroy good homes than maintain them during a contraction then they too have fallen to zero. We saw this following the property collapse of 2006. That, sorry to say, was just the first leg down of a much more serious event that still awaits on the horizon. You may not believe that but it does not mean it will not happen and the charts on this subject are revealing if not outright alarming. I just don’t know what will cause the next meltdown but i do not doubt for a moment it will come as this current unprecedented global asset bubble eventually deflates.
Still waiting for your answer on any one of my questions. Doubt its coming though given all the Red Herring, bluffing, posturing and distraction in your posts. If you have a point you can prove then just get on with it.
Still waiting….
While we wait, why don’t I point out some more of your nonsense:
“Unfortunately, during a serious cyclical asset deflation event the price of a home can indeed drop to exactly zero which is another way of saying no buyers will step forward to take even distressed lands. When a house is seized for non payment of taxes it has effectively fallen to nothing as well..”
Ummm…no, sorry. Just because buyers aren’t stepping forward, it doesn’t mean the asset is worth zero. Are you telling me all those homes in Vegas, Phoenix etc were worth nothing or were people just not buying because they were afraid prices were going to fall more? Also banks weren’t lending against the properties because appraisals continued to fall and mortgage markets were frozen. As soon as prices stabilized, investors stepped in and bought up all those properties for their new market values which definitely wasn’t zero.
Also, when a house is seized for non-payment of taxes, it says nothing about the value of the home. It means the value of the asset was less than the outstanding liabilities (the mortgage and the unpaid taxes) so the senior creditor (the government) was taking the asset to make sure that they get made whole before the bank. If you just exercise some common sense, why would anyone seize a worthless asset if they had to pay taxes or maintenance and upkeep.
You must be doing your homework, spending time on personal research, reading up on history and keeping many charts so that you can post something that sounds wicked smaht.
Like I said, you’re a clown with no understanding of any basics. I’ll give you more chance……bond prices fall, what happens to the amount of my payment. This is day one of bond class.
No Mac, not doing homework. I just realized after reading your posts that there is no adequate way to convey to a person like yourself what we are headed for since you think you already have all the answers.
What I have been talking about is something almost entirely unknown to the current generation because it takes almost a lifetime for the cycle to come around and surprise us all anew.
This is not something I am just making up either. Not a paranoid delusion or flight of fancy. When credit cycles terminate we see asset prices decline almost across the spectrum and both liquidity and wealth evaporate.
There are precious few buyers to snap up the deals because most of the carnage takes place among those who hold the majority of the assets to start with. It is a time when factories fight for their lives to stay open, when unemployment skyrockets and disposable income and savings wither.
The end of a credit cycle is when the money supply itself collapses as real interest rates soar due to disinflation. It is also when borrowing becomes very difficult except for the best fortified customers and its a time when new investment comes to a virtual standstill.
Ben Bernanke was certain that he could whip this problem following the GFC by swamping the system with liquidity and thus vastly expanding the money supply. But the problem was that lending did not take off as expected and instead we ended up creating a series of bubbles even larger than those that came prior to and precipitated the GFC in the first place.
So the credit cycle was only extended but the ultimate conclusion has only been put off for another day. The business cycle itself has not been altered and at this time we are marching headlong into a crisis which will rival the worst days of the Great Depression both for the depths we will fall and the length we will have to endure.
It is going to be an event unparalleled in financial history. And unfortunately you will get to live through most of it. Once asset prices do start falling there will be nothing on this planet that can reverse the effect and it should take decades for prices to return back to the highs they had seen at the peak.
What that means is that almost everything we place great value on today will fall including stocks, bonds, real estate, antiques and whatever else you can think of.
Labour will go into surplus due to ongoing automation and the pool of retirees that are now entering their golden years will become an irreversible drag on the economy as they turn down their spending, tighten their belts and begin unloading homes, cars and artwork onto a market of very few willing, solvent buyers.
This is how homes can fall to zero.
And guess what? It has all happened before. More than a few times if you are curious to know and this event will be no exception other than the fact we are going into a near perfect storm of variables to make it about as extreme as these credit collapses get.
So batten down the hatches. You won’t be around to thank me for warning you when it arrives because odds are your internet service will have been closed or suspended along with all your credit cards.
But you were warned anyway.
In other words, you can’t answer any of those real simple fundamental questions. You post all kinds of forecasts on bonds, currencies, equities, gold and every other asset yet you don’t even understand the basics of most markets.
We are all very aware of how credit super cycles have resolved themselves in the past and what happened to asset values and the underlying debt. I’m guessing thought that you’ve been sounding that alarm bell since 2009 right after reading The Fourth Turning or some Zerohedge article. You don’t have any secret knowledge or great insight that anyone with an internet connection and a library card couldn’t acquire in an afternoon. What you do have is an overinflated ego and a penchant for attacking people with your nonsense that anyone with half a clue can see right through.
Ped, I’m usually not this much of an asshole but this is a fight that you picked and then continued even after I tried to let it go. If your going to call people and be nasty about it then expect to get it right back.
LOL, you cannot defend your own assertion in the original post you left with even a shred of evidence to prove me wrong and yet now you claim expertise on the subject! An entire day has passed and we are no further ahead except your hostility grows with each new post you write as if bleating at me more belligerently strengthens your position. This is like having a conversation with an angry retarded 8th grader.
So far, this has been a real shit day for my collection of junk. I am thoroughly pissed off. That is all for now.
Aww… poor Bigdaddy. I really do feel sorry for you. Hang in there and maybe things will get better.
ERX, XLE are not in a big rush to go up. Neither is GDX.
I have to say that I was hoping for a better performance from GDX. Since I bought it, it hasn’t done much although in hindsight, I guess I could have sold it when it was above $23
You trade like Don. He has been short US stock markets since May and lost a ton of money but he keeps holding on waiting for a payday. The SPXS is down 15% in that time but of course he plays options so its much worse. Gary always warns “don’t short the stock market” and honestly he is correct right now, but the novices seem to never learn.
Ped: There you go making shit up again. I haven’t played options for over 25 years. They are for suckers. I am guessing that you play them. Yes, I have been short for some time and freely admit it. not worried. When the time comes, SPXS will go up 15% in a single day.
Are you sure? I think you need an SMT subscription to help you stem your losses. Unlike you Gary is actually making money. First rule of trading is to cut your losses. Too bad you are so far down already.
SPXS Monthly Chart — Yeah baby, the pros are all over this thing! 😉
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=SPXS&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
Gold, failed seasonal’s, probable. Oil down after it’s seasonal miss in March and 6 months later still out, gold in danger of a copy cat move and in danger of going lower then anyone thinks 1050 imo.
Afternoon: Well it does not take a rocket science to figure out 93.60 is the line in the sand and by default 12.50 on dust, they clearly don’t want it above, once above I think it will be over.
MS
12.50?
BitCoin with a new ATH at $3,451. I have it on day 15 of its current Daily/Trading Cycle.
I was trading GBTC as a proxy which I purchased at $380 and sold earlier today at $544 near the HOD so far.
I show this as a new Intermediate Cycle out of the July low, so I am expecting both BitCoin and GBTC to go higher in the next Daily or Trading Cycle but I think we are close to a short term top.
In Elliott Wave terms, I see this current move as the start of Wave 5 with the July low as Wave 4.
Here are a couple of posts from this weekend.
https://surfcity.co/2017/08/05/bitco…-cycle-update/
https://www.ddddrffjj.com/analysis/b…eware-the-gap/
Surf – how large you using on GBTC? I’ve had very hard time getting fills with anything 400+ due to liquidity. I have gotten lucky but as much as I LOVE Bitcoin the premium on GBTC scares the daylights out of me especially if ETF gets news. Drove me to just buy Bitcoin proper & hold paper wallet in Feb.
Bitcoin WILL tag $6k this year. 10k next is absolute.
Thanks to JNUG mis-correlation earlier this year for driving me to Bitcoin !!!!!
Won’t look back lest I wind up like Biblical Lotts wife!
My GBTC trade was around $7,800 and had a profit of $3,078. Most of my trade position sizes are between $6K and $12K as position sizing is one of my risk management approaches.
Regarding the GBTC Nav premium, I will post a link that tries to explain it later if I can find it.
I found the link in the GBTC NAV Premium but every time I try to post it I get bounced out for some reason. Maybe I can no longer post links here???
Search for this in your browser and you will find it.
“Explaining Bitcoin Investment Trust’s (GBTC) Premium Over NAV”
Multiple links don’t work. They go to moderation and get left there to die.
On May 22, the Canadian dollar closed at 0.7402. It rose from that point by 8.8% to 0.8052 On July 27. During the exact same time period, crude went from 51.01 down to 49.10, a loss of 3.7%. So over a two month period , the Canadian dollar was +8.8% and Crude -3.7%. A negative correlation.
Anyone with a half a brain can see that the Canadian dollar does NOT ‘lead’ crude. Over longer time periods it is true that the Canadian dollar may respond positively to rising crude prices, but not the other way around as Pedestrian claims.
On more than one occasion, know-nothing Pedestrian has stated or implied that the Canadian dollar leads crude and he is dead wrong so don’t fall for his rubbish. Here is just one example of what Pedestrian has said on the issue:
————————————————————————————————————————————————-
Pedestrian
May 22, 2017 at 3:46 pm
I really don’t see the excitement in crude oil. Anyone betting long is going to have his account cleaned soon enough because the WTI charts are just about as ugly as they come. I mean look at the Canadian dollar for a hint. Does that look like its about to take off and soar or fall flat on its face? At best we see a bump during the summer driving season but its all down hill after that.
————————————————————————————————————————————————–
In fact, the Canadian dollar did “soar” and WTI did NOT follow and actually declined. Remember that Ped talks a lot as an expert but is wrong far to often and NEVER mans up for his bad calls.
You are on ignore but since you seem interested in learning something new today I will direct you to any long term chart of the Canadian dollar versus crude oil for your edification. The correlation is unequivocal and beyond reproach and has been that way for many years already.
You ought to know better than to think a positive correlation means two assets track each other tick for tick but then again you keep surprising me with your poor knowledge. Correlations obviously vary and are not fixed day to day so speculating on outcomes is hardly a science.
As to which leads which on any given day I don’t care and neither does anyone else. All that matters is the two assets track each other well and it is very often tradeable. So when there is an abrupt rise or decline in CAD it makes sense to monitor oil and vice versa.
This is common knowledge and everyone on the board knows it. But if you won’t learn I cannot help you.
Sounds like you are the one that just learned something and now pretending that you knew it all along. I may not be the smartest guy but you don’t fool me.
Aren’t you the same guy who is treating his dog for hemorrhoids? Nuff said.
Long RESN. Might double on Wednesday
Hahaha! PED got busted again. i love it. I believed his big talk once and it cost me, can’t stand that turd. At least something has brightened up this horrible day. Everything has gone to shit.
So says the second worst trader on this site. Right behind Don.
I’m surprised you two aren’t broke. Then again, maybe you are because that would explain the sour grapes and bitterness. You keep getting ruined with all your genius plays and no matter how much Gary tries to help you just keep losing money again and again.
Long LACDF. Breakout coming
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-07/us-credit-card-debt-surpasses-financial-crisis-record-student-and-auto-loans-hit-new
Nice bounce in AAOI today:)
Don’t own any now. Bought it and sold it 3 times. LITE reports in a couple of days that could impact that sector again.
I almost covered my Netflix short today I have a small profit on the short but I figured, F__ it. I mean, every time that i get out of a position, i regret it down the road. I’m not doing that day trading horseshit anymore. I read somewhere that over 95% of day traders lose money over time and i believe it cause it sure in the hell didn’t work for me.
It’s funny that almost 100% of the day traders here claim to be winners. Just lucky?
Top 2% wise guy. Its a small club.
2%? Nope, I read it’s 5% are winners.
Will be interesting to see if GDX shows up on BOW. I saw a print of 4+ million shares bought at 22.20 on L2. I am thinking it is EOD trades being settled, but +95m on BOW would not surprise me as miners are total whipsaw. I will be surprised if it shows up due to the time it printed, but we will know for sure in about another 30 minutes.
No GDX on BOW. A small BOW for GDXJ printed of 31m – insignificant.
The Dow hit another high today. Trump will tweeting up a storm, taking credit. Who knows, maybe he deserves it. I get his tweets directly and some are actually quite interesting and always entertaining.
I am done with this game today. Tomorrow is another day and maybe i’ll be back in the winner’s circle then. See you guys then.
At some point soon, I expect yen ($xjy) to finally let go and send gold crashing lower along with Gdx and Gdxj. Anyone expecting a bull market in yen is smoking some good stuff.
As yen crashes it’s going to send the Dow to 23000 easily.
Ex Nihilo,
Thanks for your charts.
You posted a solid, actionable prediction last week and that got my attention.
You don’t need to defend your chart posting against polemical arguments of the argumentative on here. Both of whom are on my “page down” list by the way. I made the occasional exception to read their reactions to your excellent, timely and valuable post. Same old blather that caused me to page down right thru them.
Hope to see more of your posts (and exercise my “page down” button thru the rest of the flotsam and jetsam).
As for the contest, if it suits you fine, if not, so be it.
The non-acceptance of stop-loss, in my opinion, encourages wrong trading habits. If Gary were my coach, coaching me to become a consistently successful trader, then I suppose I’d follow his guidance. But he’s not.
The no day trading rule is fine, but it simply doesn’t suit me.
Polemical blatherers, on the page down function now include Lena Powitch.
None of these argumentative types have produced a single actionable post of value.
Ex Nihilo,
And for the record, I agree with your chart — posted as much over the weekend — that I’m looking for another move down in gold and GDX to begin the week, and then re-evaluate after that.
I arrived at that conclusion using different methodology than yours.
I thought you promised everyone that you were “moving on”? Did I just hear a titty baby?
“Gary said I could not use stops.” LOL, we just keep adding excuses to why we are not in the contest.
Pedestrian,
“You ought to know better than to think a positive correlation means two assets track each other tick for tick but then again you keep surprising me with your poor knowledge. Correlations obviously vary and are not fixed day to day so speculating on outcomes is hardly a science.”
I track some currency correlations, from the practical angle. In that regard, my approach is more like surfing than science, so far.
For instance, USDJPY has been very strongly negatively correlated to gold, at least in the shorter term so-called “daily” cycle, whereas DXY has not been correlated to gold in the short term.
But now suddenly the latter correlation is starting to take hold, very strongly, since the last week of July.
Correlation coefficient for DXY vs. XAUUSD:
July 19: +0.32
July 21: -0.13
July 25: -0.65
July 26: -0.77
July 28: -0.93
July 31: -0.96
August 3: -0.98
August 7: -0.98
… and other correlations among other pairs offer interesting insights as well!
That’s pretty amusing Zkot. Just the kind of thing the drives the gold bulls crazy because just as they contend, gold correlates to the dollar better when its in decline than when the dollar is falling. It’s like they just can’t win. They know to follow the USD/gold correlation but when the relationship inexplicably fails like it has much of this year they feel cheated.
As you are pointing out here though the correlation has become tight again as gold falls and that was my contention too. Look out below! If USD takes off as I argue it will (and a few others here are coming up with supportive charts which is really helpful) then gold is going to get body slammed into the pavement like a rag doll during a 6 years old’s temper tantrum.
Feathers everywhere, man!
The entire seasonal strong period in gold could be in doubt. Too early to know of course but its difficult to imagine a big break out in miners against a backdrop of gold being Monkey hammered back into the stone age because the dollar roared back to life.
Pedestrian,
Also love the comic relief of you clobbering the Emotional Adder — sometimes I even read his nonsensical post that you’re clobbering, just contextualize the humor & multiply the laughter 🙂
Regarding the Intellectual Adder, on the other hand, sometimes there’s no humor in it; other times, there is. I read your funny replies, though I never bother to take in the mental poison that sparked it. If, on the other hand, you debate his polemic, I skip the exchange entirely.
Re the dollar, the floor is stepping up here, generating bullish context and flagging a reversal to the upside here. Also has bearish implications for gold…
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/dollar-240-shorts-be-careful-floor-is-stepping-up/
Interesting chart, Ex Nihilo — Thanks!
Yes, good charts. Agree the dollar is going to see an August reversal. What I am trying to figure out is how badly that might hurt gold and for how many weeks it lasts if we are going to see a cyclical dollar uptrend.
During the last strong uptrending period for USD that happened in the second half of 2014 gold lost about 200 dollars. So its well within reason to imagine a gold decline taking us all the way back to the 2016 lows of 1040.
Silver is in deep trouble here too if the dollar rally’s hard. The SLV chart implies a fall below 14 which will be devastating given all the technical supports that get smashed along the way and the implication that this ongoing bear market is far from dead yet.
I am looking at adding to short positions. This is going to be too good to miss. LOL!
You’re way out of line if you think your going to find subscribers here.
Looks like gold will bounce back up and probably double top before its next ride down. Another chance to get short near the highs is approaching. You can see it best on an hourly chart. I am looking for a lower high naturally so a top not exceeding 1275 should be about right.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1
Beam me up zkotty 🙂 you should listen to Mr Spock instead of Ped, base metals breaking out!
https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/DBB-8-AUG.png
The full article:
https://spockg.com/
Note the VAP to the left giving us the finger 😛 I am no expert in Volume At Price but I think a huge bar serves as support if above and low volume areas acts as a magnet attracting price and trade volume. So yeah looking bullish and seasonality is on our side.
That is a base metals chart. Zinc, copper and aluminum dance to a different drummer than precious metals. Don’t you think there is a reason we don’t breathlessly comment on nickel in the same sentence as gold? You are trying to link the two obviously. In any case that chart is merely suggestive but not yet formed. We will see what the dollar does first.
I am primarily thinking about Silver (remember First Majestic from last week), Silver is moreof a commodity than a monetary metal imo.
I am not investing in metals directly I am coming from the miners perspective, look at my two largest holdings Yamana and Ivanhoe the own a boatload of copper and zink.
AND if you follow the GSR closely as I do it favors a breakout to the upside!
… for Gold&Silver that means a decreasing GSR of course
It looks like you correct and possibly just a continuation with pull back to the 10 MA Dialy for all the currencies mentioned below, looking at Gold and the 2011 down trend and my chart it really seem that the price is bouncing off the down trend (2011) as a continuation with a touch back on the trend to move up. Whats the chances of this to occur? With the following point it seems more probable now than not.
We see the same with JPYUSD thats seems to hve a close correlation with gold in bounce on a down trend line.
The EURUSD is continuation through 200 MA weekly which last week was a shooting star through the 200 MA and now continuation candle above the 200ma. The DXY weekly has not touched 200 MA. Did go though the dialy 10 MA but other currencies determine DXY so euro and JPY indication possible carry more weight.
https://in.tradingview.com/x/ktCOBfMy/
https://in.tradingview.com/x/zt6vgrNQ/
https://in.tradingview.com/x/xMmNZ3lK/
Ped and all currency argument witts be aware of what is really going on with IMF and BRICKS with new ADR currency replacing US dollar as reserve. The drop that will never end!
In your previous discussion of where the dollar is going I believe is correct. All dollars will becoming back to US but the driving factor of acceleration would be to get rid of the dollar. The IMF linking all currencies to ADR and US losing its reserve currency status is o.o1% away from the majority vote from China , RUSSIA and brick countries now in OCtober majority vote for the ADR as reserve currencies. (thats what all huff and puff of the boogy man Russia is about as they started setting up trade deals with gold in Oil and and other with China, India ect) They have accumulated gold for past 10 years. Which might be the expectancy of point to base new reserve. They have established trade not using US and thats one of the big reasons (video describing what is happening few people are aware of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7QMMqyEl_I) IMF, Elie and bankers have been planning a new world reserve currency for years to be rolled out by 2018. All the dollers are coming back to the US first by getting assets, then finally just getting rid as it devalues to oblivion as the new currency take over which the $ will just be linked to. Market chaos at first and reset of world debt…commodity value of each country would possibly become base value of currency for thr region after debt. This is playing out know. The dollar is going into a spiral that will be worse than the Zim 1 trillion dollar printed with all dollars returning with ADR as new inter government trading currency (already started and done) at first then regional . The chinese Yuan was linked October, new vote October 2017 and all US majority vote was just 0.01ahead at last calculation. Hold your braces as the final nail is October and chaos is inevitable and Thrump will be blamed as it all unfolds
Note to all arguments on currencies is resolved with the following info for those who need to catch up whats happeing at the IMF
Be aware of what is really going on with IMF and BRICKS with new ADR currency replacing US dollar as reserve. The drop that will never end!
In your previous discussion of where the dollar is going I believe is correct. All dollars will becoming back to US but the driving factor of acceleration would be to get rid of the dollar. The IMF linking all currencies to ADR and US losing its reserve currency status is o.o1% away from the majority vote from China , RUSSIA and brick countries now in OCtober majority vote for the ADR as reserve currencies. (thats what all huff and puff of the boogy man Russia is about as they started setting up trade deals with gold in Oil and and other with China, India ect) They have accumulated gold for past 10 years. Which might be the expectancy of point to base new reserve. They have established trade not using US and thats one of the big reasons (video describing what is happening few people are aware of https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7QMMqyEl_I) IMF, Elie and bankers have been planning a new world reserve currency for years to be rolled out by 2018. All the dollers are coming back to the US first by getting assets, then finally just getting rid as it devalues to oblivion as the new currency take over which the $ will just be linked to. Market chaos at first and reset of world debt…commodity value of each country would possibly become base value of currency for thr region after debt. This is playing out know. The dollar is going into a spiral that will be worse than the Zim 1 trillion dollar printed with all dollars returning with ADR as new inter government trading currency (already started and done) at first then regional . The chinese Yuan was linked October, new vote October 2017 and all US majority vote was just 0.01ahead at last calculation. Hold your braces as the final nail is October and chaos is inevitable and Thrump will be blamed as it all unfolds
Pedestrian,
“Just the kind of thing the drives the gold bulls crazy because just as they contend, gold correlates to the dollar better when its in decline than when the dollar is falling… They know to follow the USD/gold correlation but when the relationship inexplicably fails like it has much of this year they feel cheated.”
Here’s a chart with nothing on it but the price of gold, and 3 common correlations: DXY, USDJPY, and silver.
I recommend plotting daily correlation once per day, after close, to see how it’s holding up in the present. And as you suggest, keeping the mind free from bias!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=1&id=p78491468911
I see some of the permabulls have decided it’s safe to come out of hiding this morning. Let’s see if the JOLTs data at 10am gives us direction with the dollar. 4h, I see h&s completing pattern and on 1h maybe bear flag is completing.
Bullish bias continues until we get the move below 1250. Whatever the decision, let’s make it. This grinding sideways chop is unwanted.
Looking at chart now on 4h, I see correction from here to 1250-40. Waiting for UJ.
Good day Nada> Yes the bulls have already claimed victory, to da moom. Do they forget that there is huge resistance at 1264. If it can;t get above there may be an exodus next marker around 1240.
MS
You need to find another line of work, resistance is 1280 and support at 1261.
Morning all,
Still seeing impending weakness in gold due to this bearish gap on the 20:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/gc-20-be-careful-bearish-gap/
Although the higher floor signaled this upside breach, the fresh bearish gap here is signaling further weakness in gold.
I am noting also that the raised floor on the dollar held throughout gold’s bid – bullish for the dollar; bearish for gold.
That’s hog wash, you are not going to find anyone here for your $500/mo charting service.
$500 per month?
Who cares how much his service is. I don’t see anything wrong with posting charts.
Long dollar futures at 93.22 based on the chart I posted here earlier (bullish context generating here with the floor stepping up)
Watching the dollar. It’s not acting like an asset that’s ready to rally out of a YCL.
Remember what happened during the last two bear markets. The dollar just sliced right through the 200 WMA and never even slowed down.
It’s still too early to tell but there is the possibility that gold has completed a half cycle low if the dollar just continues to unravel.
Trading gold movements is not so bad, but miners is complete whipsaw. Its most annoying at this stage, since we do not have confirmation of ICL yet. However, the longer the dixie does not prove herself, the more accurate your theory of HCL.
it has formed a bull flag, and a second seems to be coming soon.
Bearish structure building out in the Nasdaq futures:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/08/nasdaq-futures-watch-out-for-this-bearish-structure/
Morning Nilo: Please join the on line bingo contest, makes your posting more credible .
MS
There is no bearish structure in the Naz.
JNUG or DIE. Back to full positions
You must be a glutton for punishment. Didn’t you just finish losing 20,000 on that trade last week after buying when it was trading below the 20DMA? And now its off again this morning another 3% but you are going back in? That’s NOT how to trade a bottom, buddy. You need to step back for a little and analyze the trade technically before just jumping in like a gambler. This was unconditionally a sell this morning meaning you should have been in JDST.
Not sure why this bugs me so much. What you did today is called catching a falling knife. If you want to bottom fish a trade in obvious decline you need to first watch and see if the opposing trade JDST is topping out. There are always signs. You are acting emotionally, not rationally and trying to buy before a bottom has arrive or consolidated.
TSLA off to the races.
Another pathetic outing for the miners. They are being shorted any every uptick.
Just got JOLTed.
I can only laugh.
The miners are telling you everything you need to know about the gold cycle.
especially the silver miners which had some setbacks, they are the canary in the coal mine, I think.
They have been stuck in a $5 range for 8 months. They are whipsawing bulls and bears to pieces.
It’s easier to just play the stock market from the long side. At least you know the Fed has your back.
Long dollar futures at 93.22 based on the chart I posted here earlier (bullish context generating here with the floor stepping up)
Mining stocks doesnt behave like gold and silver is going to have a decent rally.
The problem is everything could reverse again tomorrow.
This is the kind of market that just chews traders up.
Best to just stay away for now. It’s just too erratic.
Gary. Why should anyone stay away, watch 29.50 and 93.60 and 10.00 hgd. If it goes above short away. Might be the biggest investment opportunity.
MS
I think you were making the same kind of predictions for TSLA….
Gary, very quick to point out, but if it is you , you get defensive, and no I am not worried about tsla going a little above the marker look what they did t with dust.
MS
If they can’t get it below 29.50 again, could be a little dust covering. Quite pathetic they have to use the opening with 800 shares to jam it below, no more shares to be had.
MX
Bearish gap in gold resolving nicely to the downside here…dollar is calling the shots here…
As long as there is one government sanctioned economic report comes out everyday, the market cannot go down,
JOLT is a joke. This is one economic data piece that are made of 100% fungible data. Multiple job postings for same job by employer, multiple job postings for a same job by head hunters are a well known fact.
Old stale job postings get never deleted by recruiters, the numbers just get bigger.
How many times must I say this before it sinks in? We don’t have free markets anymore. We haven’t since the day the SEC banned short selling in the financials.
That’s why I keeps saying the easy money is in the stock market. The Fed has your back. Any corrections get stopped quickly. So buy the dips.
Fed doesn.t have your back.
Don’t fool yourself.
There is so much Fed can do.
Dollars are coming back home.
So far the FED has done a pretty good job. The trend is your friend.
“Watching the dollar. It’s not acting like an asset that’s ready to rally out of a YCL” — Gary
Watching the dollar is like watching the kettle boil.. GIVE IT A MINUTE MAN LOL!
https://www.tradingview.com/x/tFxJdOIX/
Here’s another problem. The euro is on day 37 and in an extremely right translated cycle. The DCL should occur soon. If the euro completes its DCL in a few days and starts another daily cycle advance that would make it very tough for the dollar to generate a right translated daily cycle (which it would need to do if this is an ICL).
In order for that to happen the euro would need to produce a 50-60 day cycle.
Currencies don’t give a flying hoot about cycles Gary! You’ve said this yourself MANY MANY MANY times before, hence why you don’t trade currencies.
As it stands, the dollar delivered a bullish engulfing candle on Friday, consolidated and is currently bouncing off the 10 DMA — So far so good in my books 🙂
My work shows that the Euro’s Intermediate Cycle has topped here and that the USD has likely found an ICL. More evidence is still needed but that is my primary scenario right now.
Agree Surfer. Good work by the way.
Picked up some DUST this morning @29.25 🙂
No, I will not join the ‘online bingo’ which means I’m a bullshit trader. Please don’t follow my lead.
Wow Christian, you are up over a dollar already!!
Let’s see if it holds… DUST should top out around 33/34, if everything goes according to plan. And it rarely ever does.
Well, here we have the dollar rising and the miners are being crushed again. It is tough to be a bull when they just keep kicking you in the teeth.
New S&P high. Trump will be doing a victory dance and tweeting up a storm.
So we have 93.60 check, 12.50 check and 10.00 check. short away, Put a good chunk in. don’t wait for everyone else.
Shortin Sally
MS. It will be interesting to see which way it goes.
Apple is up nearly 1.6% today, and since it comprises 3.8% of the S&P 500, it is providing a big helping hand with pushing the market to new highs. Can’t argue with success.
Silver and platinum are the two bright spots for the PM bulls, both still up on the day. I don’t think the action in GDX is all that bad.
Silver topped out at 16.45 and is due to decline further. The rise was merely corrective along a falling trend line.
Gary, do you think this is the start of that parabolic move you have been calling for? No correction at all?
There will come a time when cycles and sentiment cease to work in the stock market and it will just go up day after day. I don’t think we are at that point just yet, but the S&P just confirmed another right translated daily cycle. That should push the ICL out another complete daily cycle and into Oct.
I’m curious.. A ‘cycle count’ is pretty straight forward for the most part. So is why is there so much discrepancy between Gary’s current cycle count and this Surf City dude?? Which one of you is wrong or doesn’t know how to count properly?
Christian, I can’t speak for Gary but most assets find an Intermediate Cycle Low between 5-6 months.
Here is a post from late July that shows I have the last USD ICL in early Feb 2017 and the recent low was right at the 6 month mark. My charts also show that the USD has very strong support (for now) near the 92 level. While I do expect that level to be taken out later this year, we should see at least 1-2 short term Daily or Trading Cycles that form higher lows.
The next step in confirming an ICL is a weekly Swing Low which occurred today but more confirmation is still needed. If this is an ICL, the USD should rally up towards at least the 98 level but there is still strong resistance in the 98-101 range where it would likely top out.
https://surfcity.co/2017/07/27/usd-intermediate-cycle-4/
I know how Cycles Work Surf City.. I’m saying one of you is clearly wrong in his analysis.
Gary?
Well The drop in January didn’t break the intermediate trend line so there was no confirmation that was an ICL.
This is what I call squinting to see what one wants to see. EW analysts use this technique extensively.
That being said this could be an ICL in the dollar. Surf has it at 20 something weeks. My count would be at 65 weeks. The question right now is whether this actually turns into an intermediate bottom or if the euro cycle bottoms soon and starts another daily cycle advance. If it does it will prevent the dollar from producing a right translated daily cycle which would cause the intermediate dollar cycle to just keep stretching.
It’s still too early to tell what the euro is going to do.
Thank you Gentlemen for clarifying your point of view 🙂
Good morning,
Hope you guys are doing well.
I am doing kind of silly for not saying stupid.
Got into swing trading and praying.
24K JNUG shares at about $16.6
Stop loss is about $14.
Otherwise I am in a very nice accommodation overlooking the ocean.
Soon we will have a full body massage. Nice.
But I am still praying…
Good trading to all.
GOLD/MINERS are in the midst of a correction and Goild is buying JNUG hand over fist whilst on Holidays — for F* sakes, Lol!
Will you lay off the slot machine for once and just enjoy the view? Not many people get to overlook the Ocean you platypus!
Goild, don’t worry about a thing and enjoy yourself. I will guarantee that it doesn’t matter what happens with JNUG, you will have made money.
I think the predictions of the Nasdaq’s demise were a bit premature…
10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we reach the really nutty phase of the bubble. Look at what bitcoin is doing. The Nasdaq will behave the same way when it get’s into it’s bubble.
5 years ago who would have predicted bitcoin would be over $3000? Like I keep saying, bull markets go much further than anyone anticipates.
And this one is being driven by literally trillions and trillions of government counterfeiting.
On the USD Feb 2017 Intermediate Cycle Low, I have added a second chart to my post showing that Price did break above my Intermediate down trend line. After that, the USD had one short term Trading or Daily Cycle that made a higher TCL/DCL before rolling over. This confirmed the Feb ICL for me.
Lastly, note my dotted Red down trend out of the early Jan top. This is my Yearly Cycle down trend which also happens to be the IC downtrend from the very brief Feb IC high. Hope this make sense.
https://surfcity.co/2017/07/27/usd-intermediate-cycle-4/
My only other point here is that Time is extremely important in my Cycle work, especially the 5-6 month Intermediate Cycle. Without some kind of consistency on Intermediate Cycle length, I would find it somewhat difficult to perform my work.
Christian, JJ,
Thanks for your comments.
I will drink a beer to your health.
If things go my way I hope not to shoot myself by selling too soon.
If things go against me, well I will lose all profit I have.
Yea, somewhat there is the argument USD may go higher killing the miners.
But oh boy, PM/miners are so tricky and the miners have been punished too much.
Hope JNUG is near/about the bottom of a channel.
Good luck to all.
Looks like dollar could drop further providing bounce to miners…
Surf, what do you think of Gary’s incorrect call that gold completed its ICL in July?
Gold did make a lower Daily / Trading Cycle Low in July so it could have been an ICL. That is also my primary option but the Miners (GDX) mad a higher TCL/DCL in July indicating that their ICL was in May.
So the Gold and Miner cycles are somewhat out of Sync in my book. For now I am watching two down trend lines closely. On Gold my down trend from its 2011 top is still capping every Rally. It has been tested at least 9-10 times since the rally out of the late 2015 low but that down trend line has held.
On GDX, the down trend from its Feb 2017 high is also capping every rally including the last one. Both these down trends need to be broken before the Gold Bull will resume. The trend is still down so maybe later this Fall?
googl and amzn entering trending mode. hqu.to on TSX is the eqivalent of tqqq. Soxl is already in the trending mode. Earnings release for nvda on Thursday amc.
I am not doing too badly today. Netflix is down and silver is up. The rest are going to hell just like they were yesterday but it could be worse. I think SQQQ and SOXS will be big winners given time.
Failed BKX confirms that you re going to get it Migdaddy, be patient a bit…
sorry for misspelling Bigdaddy…( :
I don’t have BKX, i sold it a while back when i cleared the slate in preparation for my new and improved trading style. I might buy it again.
Not sure why people are so focused on the DXY when it is $usdjpy that has driven gold for the last 20+ years. That explains why DXY and gold can rise together–it typically means the Euro is tanking while the yen is strengthening.
In any event, the miners should be shorted on any bounce unless and until this trendline is recaptured.
I am expecting a massive spike in $usdjpy soon, which should send gold and mining shares down to Chinatown. Conversely, a spiking $usdjpy will send the Dow well over 23000 by EOM.
Whoops, here’s the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98438866169&a=538621826&listNum=1
your analysis makes sense… the question, does the dow fall after that or continue its rally
I think once Dow breaks 23,000 it will probably get a super spike to 23,500. Thereafter, it will likely get a 3-5% correction. I highly doubt we see 5%. more likely a very sharp 3% drop to get the momentum oscillators headed down and then sideways to slightly up action for the next 2-3 months as the momentum indicators are brought back down to earth somewhat. Just a guess though.
Thank you Surf, that is excellent perspective and food for thought.
Dow:gold ratio about to explode higher.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3A%24GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p90526186127&a=538622479&listNum=1
If you look at the monthly chart, the ratio is now over the 200 month MA.
I suspect bulls and bears both are going to get taken to the cleaners in the metals.
Yeah, that’s not possible. We are setting up for a huge trending move. One of these camps is going to win big.
$gold:$xjy ratio monthly chart bollinger bands are basically at their narrowest ever. Expect fireworks starting by next month at the latest.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24XJY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p51231598211&a=538624110&listNum=1
I like that JNUG jump to $16.35.
I will be even at $16.6
What about letting you guys manage the trade?
I don’t think you will have the patience to wait for 16.60 since JNUG is trading down at 16.08 a short while back.
$gold:$xjy ratio monthly chart bollinger bands are basically at their narrowest ever. Expect fireworks starting by next month at the latest.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24XJY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p51231598211&a=538624110&listNum=1
Correct Spanky and a very nice a-b-c pattern is setting up in GSR as we post 🙂
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4388/36050396150_f156021184_b.jpg
I think the metals are headed for the crapper, personally. At best the move lower will be a scary headfake lower. At worst, it will be a resumption of the bear market and it will be crystal clear when the break occurs.
Many of them are already in the crapper just look at Platinum Group Metal !
They can always go lower.
I guess the only good advice I have is from JJ: do not worry about it 🙂
Yeah, this looks like a bullish setup right here:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p03806879844&a=538627846&listNum=1
Not.
You are thinking to small Spanky !
Yes sideways to down for another week or two perhaps, but sniff sniff do I smell a very long fuse been lightened recently or am I con,fuzed 😛
Think BIG Spanky!
Oh I am thinking big, just DOWN big.
hahaha Spanky you are one grumpy son of a gun …
Spanky,
Thanks! it helps.
Since you like ratios I track the ratio gdxj/jnug and it also appears bullish as it is a the channel top.
Huh, gdxj:jnug looks like it is about to break out huge to the upside. That is bearish!
“In every battle there comes a time when both sides are beaten, the he who continues the attack wins”
Ulysses S. Grant.
Silver will soon be 500….
In mexican pesos.
Yepp the new reserve currency backed by Silver that is a very good thing imo!
You know the wall is to keep Americans from fleeing to the land of tequila.
Gary, be careful here! There is a possibility that we are in a wave 3 up and not the final fifth for COMPQ and other US indices.
Look at this basic EW count:
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4358/36279812802_9446f5ae20_b.jpg
A three year correction will follow soon, without a spectacular blow off top!
We are in the bubble phase caused by years of QE. All you need to do is buy every dip.
10,000 will be a piece of cake.
Yes by then we are in the new 20ies why not a 100year anniversary 2029!?
Look at the chart. always 5 waves up and we are in the third.
SM that EW count makes sense…but ppt may not allow such a steep correction… also remember that bonds may be in trouble and could push money into stocks and metals… I don’t see anyone talking about bonds?
another totally plausible count is that year 2000 marked the top of a very long 3rd wave (going back to the 1932 low), the subsequent move down was wave A, the 2007 top wave B, the 2009 low wave C, and we’ve now have 5 waves up since the 2009 low (or we’re very close to ending 5 up since that low). those 5 waves up since the 2009 low are the larger 5th wave that completes the very large wave structure of which wave 3 from the 1930’s to they year 2000 was part of.
Bottom line is that the top we’re looking at now could be the completion of a wave pattern of much larger degree than you’re suggesting here. If so, the coming correction will be much deeper, dropping the DOW below 10,000 and maybe below 5,000. caveat emptor.
$hui about to break below the 50 dma. 185 is going to get taken out next.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p92175499343&a=538630133&listNum=1
Spanky…..I am already in the PM bear camp for sometime but I like how you make such an ongoing compelling case.
+1 – Good job Spanky 😛
Based on JNUG weekly chart, I see that there is massive support zone at $11… could it go that low?
$hui has not left behind a black candle since the Janaury 2016 low. There has always been a subsequent close below the closing price of every black candle and I don’t expect this time will be any different.
Race……Who goes first to 10,000 ?
NASDAQ
Or
Bitcoin ? (Burrito bet BITCOIN)
Also Bitcoin to 3x lap Gold in August 🙂
Bitcoin is going down before going up…
Silver will go to $250 if dollar collapse as it is being predicated here by many… it may take a few years but sure it will get there
I am expecting a bounce in miners after gold tags 1180…
Nada,
Check out AA. I don’t own the stock or options anymore but it is finally making a move that I thought it would do a few weeks ago. I do have orders to buy some if it will pull back a little.
Bluebellkid, thanks for the follow up. Also a great example of why you pay the premium and by yourself time. Weeklies will get you killed unless the trade goes exactly as planned (and how often does that happen?) I typically buy 2-3 months time. Folks want their options cheap and the market makers bank on this. Also in regards to options, if your broker is charging you a ticket fee/commission, then you need to fire off an email and ask them to remove or find yourself a new broker.
I understand they will want to charge you a contract fee (.25 cents or lower should be what you target), but with a ticket fee you can not scale out of options – and that is key. When I first enter a trade, I go small and will add to position on pull backs or at key levels if the trade goes against me to average down. I keep a detailed record of all my contract buys (not my average price) and scale out at levels where I make money.
AA was building the right side of a cup shaped base and the way the price and volume action looked I was betting the earnings would come in better than expected and it would “break out” and I was planning on selling the options into the big move up which is just now happening. I chose to bail on the options a couple of weeks ago rather than let them expire worthless which appears is not going to happen.
Weeklies are theta chewers.. its a rigged game, stay away.
CSTM
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CSTM&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p32039323397
Not AA but is aluminum. Owned since mid 6’s buyout rumors holding out for 18 – 20.
MAterials ex PM’s has been a much more rewarding space. Posted the chart before.
Afternoon. Looks like the lines in the sand are being held tight 93.60 29.50 and hgd could not hold 10.00. 2 out 3 not bad. tsla did not override 360 by much.
Shortin Sally
$hui monthly chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p16795029778&a=538640051&listNum=1
No way it penetrates this colossal Ichimoku cloud here. At best it will try in a couple of months from the 160-170 level. But even that would likely be nothing more than a sucker’s rally and will fail at the lower border of the cloud. Instead, I don’t think there will be any real upwards assault on the cloud until 2019 or 2020.
Thanks for all the work you are doing on these charts Spanky. Some like this one have too much data in them though and I can’t see what you are telling us about because of all the noise on the chart.
Looks pretty clear to me. The 50 MMA crossed bearishly below the 200 MMA in 2016. It can’t even hold the 20 MMA, an absolute minimum requirement for any trending bull market. The stochastics are hovering over oversold levels right now, the path of least resistance is down. The ichimoku cloud, well, that one is a little harder to explain, but penetrating the upper border of the giant red cloud is basically a zero probability IMO.
Now none of this means the 2016 low gets taken out, but what if does strongly suggest to me is the next few months could be down, and while we may bounce off of the lower monthly bollinger band, the size of the Ichimoku cloud in front of us says the HUI i not going to break its 2016 highs for a year or two, most likely 2020.
$hui daily chart Ichimoku cloud says not to try a long position until after August 21, if you are feeling lucky.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08283652485&a=538645345&listNum=1
Aug 21. The largest spectator event in the US in the last 100 years. interesting.
Great observation and chart ! Dust to 33; JDST to 84 by then.
A little stock market turbulence .
DOW, SPX and Nasdaq are all down after S&P record high. Bad sign for the health of the market. Is this when the PPT steps in?
GDX daily MACD has now rolled over. Bears are in total control.
You are dialed in Spanky!!
Gary,
I understand your reasoning for the impending bubble in Nasdaq. What I am not clear about is why a bubble will happen this time just because it happened in 2000. What evidence are you using to support a repeat event?
Central banks keep making the same mistakes over and over, it stands to reason they should continue to get the same result.
Not so fast spanky. Note that at this point , GDX is out performing the market today.
Only because of a tweet..
Goldbugs saves again by news.
and we have a tweet turn gold around. All is fair and love and war. I am with Savage, this sector is emotional garbage and no wonder the volume is anemic. A lot are sick of the action,
BIGDADDY, your NFLX ship may have come in, Disney is pulling its movies off their platform.
Thanks Homer for that info. Maybe your not the jerk i thought you were after all. Without Disney movies, what kid is going want to watch Netflix? None. The stock is way overpriced. Twenty dollar gap down is coming and i am going to make huge profits and say “i told you so”, a lot.
I’m still not convinced you’re actually trading these posts for real or not, did try to help a few times but seems that you like to go into trades from being influenced by others or irrelevant reasons. Frankly Mickey leaving Netflix in 2019 was an unforeseen event as Disney hadn’t mentioned anything about their own SVOD platform.
the gold parabola was always going to be event driven, years ago the remote viewing guru from the military recorded a mushroom cloud over n.korea fwiw. never gave it good odds till the last 6 mths. suddenly it’s all russia/n.korea alk the time.
Remote viewer? OK, you got me interested. What’s that all about Jim?
ed dames i believe, you can research the history online. I believe time is all present simultaneously and some of us are more perceptive beyond the normal conscious limitations. We all experience what remote viewers tap into but in small ways – dreams mostly.
OK found it. Thanks Jimsee. Very interesting stuff. He said it back in 2012. People were calling him crazy. Hmmmmm….
http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread904686/pg1
Of course you would be interested in a crazy man’s dreams. Makes complete sense. You and Jimsee will become good buddies, for sure.
Oh for f–k sake, in other words, it’s all horseshit. Sorry i asked.
Disagree BD. I have personally known people who could read the future with very unusual accuracy.
That`s a third eye sort of thing. Trust me Ped, you don`t need one of those!!
Jimsee, please explain “the remote viewing guru from the military recorded a mushroom cloud over n.korea fwiw” I can’t figure out what the hell you are talking about. Who is this “guru”?
I was sitting in the doctors office watching the market taking a dive. Someone said Trump read the riot act to N Korea or whatever. I hope he opens his big yap some more . It was good for my stuff. Everything worked in my favor except HGU and it’s turn is coming.
My gut feeling is getting stronger. The market is going to get the shit kicked out of it and real soon. And all those guys buying DUST and JDST and shorting silver and gold are going to get their asses handed to them. Consider my warning, Gut feelings are worth a thousand charts with a thousand horseshit lines drawn on them. Trust me.
today is a logical gold cycle low imo…13th a reaction top unless a larger cycle in play. bot some mux today…yum yum.
It can be said news make the cycles. Not sure about bottom or top, but we will have to watch to see how Asia behaves.
shorted iwm via puts on a noon-balloon play…holding to see wat develops
Kim Jong is delusional if he thinks Trump is not ready to take out him and the nuclear facilities. Both men are highly erratic and unpredictable.
i see the hindsight traders are rolling into the blog after the market drops a bit. How come we didn’t hear about this positions when you took them? Nah, it would not be safe to tell everyone that information – we have to wait for the turn to go our way, then we come onto the blog and divulge our positions. I see this behavior day after day site after site.
No one cares about your trade unless you call it in real time. I understand clearly why Gary wanted to take on the headache of inputting data, just to shut some of these folks up.
It was nice to see GDX pull up near the close. It was not looking good earlier in the day.
nada, some bullshit…some rarely talk…got chatty after coming back from the park with grandkid and family to see orders executed. yer right, no one need to hear bullshit like 7/28 turn, 8/8 turn, 8/13 turn,lol.
No I appreciate your posts Jimsee. Keep em coming. They are a welcome change around here. I always had an interest in channeling which is another area altogether. But turn dates based on codes and numerological significance are right up there.
Ped, I think I am beginning to understand what your problem is.
Tell my wife. She has been seeking answers for awhile now. 🙂
some goofball one commented that time was a stubborn illusion,,,wtf did he know,lol.
“yer right, no one need to hear bullshit like 7/28 turn, 8/8 turn, 8/13 turn,lol.”
I thought I was the only one that thought that! Same goes for the moons and goochers BS that we hear about when Saturn’s moon enceladus is at its further most elliptical orbit.
Another hideous black candle in GDX. There is no way in hell today’s closing price marked a low. Any rise from here is a shorting opportunity.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p51482307685&a=538669780&listNum=1
Yeah, GDX struggling to stay above its 20DMA is not really bullish. Lets see what tomorrow brings. The hourly chart sure suggests that price will eventually fall to the lower channel near 21 although its not a guarantee. Check this view Spanky:
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=gdx
Absolutely.
Does anyone really think shorts are going to miss the opportunity to create some serious downside momentum once $21 is taken out? It’s just too damn tempting at this point.
That’t just it. It’s been down there three times and held. Probably a good spot to go long on the first reversal candle you see. If it does break below, wait for the back tests and short if not already in position – if it back tests 🙂
Yup. If 21 is taken out then look out below.
Look at bright side, it could be a hammer reversal. However, my guess is it got some late afternoon volume on the Trump tweet. BTW, smart money sold into the news. There was over 52+ million selling in strength on GLD etf. I doubt the bounce from this news is over there, we still may see some spikers – but I think the downtrend continues.
would have shorted stocks in challenge but am 100% committed to nugt/dag. ask gary if I bot nugt today and when – shorted iwm an hour later but talking with some people is like eating glass.
This is why I am not interested in a trading contest. People are going to go all in on pretend trades because there is nothing on the line. Who would do this? No emotion, no doubt, no fear, nothing. It means nothing, zero, zilch, ought !! Unless you are trading real cash in a real account it means nothing.
indeed, shows intent but not risk-control.
I agree that it means nothing. Paper trading factors out emotions, and trading is 90% emotion – so I believe the only reason Gary started was to stop the hindsight trading.
With that said, how can you not join? Gary is offering a free contest with a potential 500 dollars in cash or access to his paid site for life. Who the hell offers you 500 dollars to paper trade?
Nada: What positions are you currently holding? Just curious.
For contest? DUST 100% 28.80ish average. No emotions 🙂
Ok, i have to go and deal with the wife. She has a bloody chore list for me to tackle. I try to do none of it but that never works. I will try and get on later tonite if anyone wants to check back in case I get a brain wave on something important.
Will do that BD. Your guidance is becoming invaluable to all.
GDX could test the now declining 50 hour MA at any time (currently at $22.62 and falling). Any touch of that MA is a golden shorting opportunity.
Will set up a nice H&S on the hourly GDX chart.
The SPX has been in this pattern for a bit and today’s test was a great place to short. I was in a meeting, so was not able to watch. Hope some caught;
https://i.imgur.com/J4jtcdv.png
I’ve been doing this a damn long time and after having been through a majority of the techniques used to trade, the ‘mystical’ trade analytics hold up so well for me even I am at a loss since they are predicated on group dynamics spread over millions of participants, yet we now have the all-powerful FED(s) of the world exerting their concentrated will, how in the hell can the big picture dynamics affecting group psychology still have value? THERE’S a question worth considering imo.
If it works for Christine Lagarde then its good enough for me!
Jimsee: Do you have a website you could share that you are using regarding “mystical trade analytics” ?
nope, just 25 years of reading/searching/trading/testing/winning/losing and most importantly learning how things that seem concrete usually are illusions of 1 sort or another. learning of the complexity of a single cell should make u sit back in awe. from simply being astonished at the ordered complexity of life considering possible quantum effects to mitochondria energy production to cell life/death cycles….
Zkot…that you?
lol. nope. r u gary? does zkot know avidtrader from 1996? jwhite era.
Afternoon. Looks like the lines in the sand are being held tight 93.60 29.50 and hgd could not hold 10.00. 2 out 3 not bad. tsla did not override 360 by much.
Shortin Sally
Originally you said the line was at $355
MS, your call to short was pretty clear.
FWIW:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AGDX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p77516410660&a=538678066&listNum=1
Whatever happens here, its going to be huge.
Praying is good.
We ended today with a very bullish candle pattern in GLD. A small hanged man followed by a big engulfing hammer.
If tomorrow we have a good gap, say 2 bucks in JNUG, my wife will get her BMW.
If we gap down, I will be washing dishes for a long time.
It is likely that GOLD’s reversal has to do with OIL’s reversal too.
Now the issue is to have the “mental strength to ride a bull market.”
Sitting tight is the most difficult thing in this business.
The S&P 500 closed with a loss of 0.2%, while the Nasdaq composite also made a bearish reversal. The Nasdaq, which had been up 0.6%, fell 0.2% as well.
Losses were minor, but the way in which they surrendered gains was disheartening. Volume rose on the Nasdaq and the NYSE. That’s a sign of institutional-sized selling. In fact, the day’s results left the Nasdaq and S&P with a new distribution day, a second bad sign.
That’s a total of five distribution days for the Nasdaq — a bit much, especially for a market stuck in a rut. However, among those five instances of heavy professional selling, the worst decline was the 0.6% drop on July 27.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.1%. The blue chip index marked the 10th straight day of posting a new high, a period in which the industrials have separated themselves from the slumbering Nasdaq and S&P. The small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.3%.
Food, energy and some retail industry groups were among a varied list of worst-performing groups. Automakers were up more than 3%, but Tesla (TSLA) influenced the price-weighted group as shares of the electric car maker rose 2.8% to 365.27. Tesla is forming the right side of a base.
Alcoa (AA) broke out of a cup-without-handle base. Shares topped the 39.88 buy point in heavy volume.
One thing that is against human nature is the taking risk to succeed.
In this business taking the risk to fail is kind of human nature.
Hope is a tremendous force.
Gold’s monthly chart looks bullish.
Silver is perhaps leading the reversal.
There is hope I will not be washing dishes.
gdx:gld looks weak as hell. Closed today with a black candle that is never a bullish sign. Sure you might get a pop up tomorrow, but we will come back down in due course.
JNUG closed at $16.42 and at 7:46 PM is at $16.48.
Good sign for a gap up.
There are buyers!!!
Spanky,
I would agree that looking at the USD side things for the miners look grim.
There is a bit of hope for some bounce to the trend line.
I think I will half or so to be prudent.
But I am the least objective.
I am taken by hope and see bullishness.
Two considerations are: 1 the first bounce is strong; 2 the day after the reversal often follows up.
More bullish context here for the dollar as the floor continues to rise:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/09/dollar-240-more-bullish-context/
Oh shit, the Nikkei cracked its support line, the VIX popped and Yen rose taking gold up a few bucks. It’s always about Japan it seems. Maybe Kim Kong threatening to shoot missiles across the Sea of Japan will be what alters the course of gold after all.
JNUG may have hit $16 for the last time this year…
$16/4=$4 which was supposed to be a super bargain.
The markets are doing exactly as I said they would yesterday when Ped tried to tell me gold was topping at 1275.
Gold is in the final push higher of this right translated cycle. Most traders will buy this assuming it means gold will go straight up from here. The shorts will get their face ripped off because they are trying to short the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. Then gold will top (maybe a triple top at 1300) when the stock market completes it’s DCL.
The vast majority will do the wrong thing just like they always do. They will buy gold late in the daily cycle and they will not buy the dip in the stock market.
No matter how many times we go through these cycle corrections most people never seem to learn.
The money to be made over the next week will be in trying to time the bottom of the stock market correction.
10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get to the real nutty phase of the bubble.
Nice try slipping in a late after-the-fact comment on an August 6th thread that’s been dead for days already. Kim Jong Un’s threat to fire a nuclear missile at Guam was a significant mover of gold but his remarks came after nobody was posting here anymore so don’t bother linking this comment down the road to show your prescience on what gold was going to do. The impact on gold since Kim’s threat was obviously significant in the interim and could not have been predicted by you or anyone else. Nor did we know Donald would threaten Fire and Fury in response and talk about the size of America’s potent nuclear arsenal. Clearly the trajectory of the gold chart was altered by talk of a nuclear attack on Guam because those words caused the Nikkei to sell off sharply. Had you known all that on August 6th your comment above would have validity. But you did not know so please stop acting like a know-it-all.