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Not only has the debt ceiling debate come off the table but the PPT is going to make sure the market stays propped up. The country doesn’t need a market correction on top of a natural disaster.
So the odds are very high that’s all we’re going to get for an ICL and the market will now rally at least into the holiday season.
Many forex experts on social media have been saying USD has bottomed. Looks like it so far given the reaction off lows last few days.
With the recent BOW for GLD and GDXJ over last two days, and the obvious shake out last night below 1300 with the drop to 1298ish on xauusd, it looks like we have more upside in gold.
Holding a triple top bteakout for 60 days has a 92% chance of a 5% gain before a 5% loss. 10000 trades analyzed. Source: Fidelity
And what about this scenario depicted by surf City?????????
Bye bye gold and euro………
https://goldtadise.com/?p=411057
Since when have $gold and euro been correlated?
It’s all about USDJPY.
I notice Surf City is often wrong so it’s like listening to another blind person
Morning all,
Watching this slope to the upside in silver:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/silver-240-6/
But noting the bullish change in behavior in the dollar too:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/dollar-240-4/
So far this morning gold is completely ignoring the weak bounce in the dollar.
This is why I think you need to have an unleveraged position just in case this isn’t the cycle top yet.
Looks like nugt is not done yet.
Gold is going to retest the prior highs today, Ras. This is a critical moment as far as I am concerned. The move should NOT exceed the previous top set some days back if my hypothesis is correct. Should gold run even a few points above the August 29th high then something else may be at work and the chart turns bullish again. We will want to watch this near today’s close very carefully. For today NUGT should be a good bet as the retest takes place but be out by end of day in the expectation of an overnight reversal if price falls short of 1331. Tomorrow is the first day of September.
LOL! Sounds like Ped is getting laying the groundwork to say that he was right all along, now matter which way gold goes. After months of saying gold is going to fall and having it soar in his face, now it’s “then something else may be at work and the chart turns bullish again”
(Pedestrian) I am short a considerable amount of GDX and a little concerned.
Hello Sassy. At important peaks its very common to see a retest of the prior highs. We had a significant top a few days back that I commented on already with an linked chart and it is still my opinion that gold will fall back from that high.
A retest of an earlier high is actually expected by most traders even though it is not guaranteed to happen. By watching the lesser degree charts such as the 5 minute you can usually get a good sense of the strength of the move back up and would then anticipate the formation of a top.
Peaks at turning points come in all variety. They may appear as a head and shoulders, a double-top or an A shaped apex. We never know for sure which it will be but its safe to assume that the chart will try to consolidate around a peak before the decline gets underway. Typically these consolidation periods can range from as little as a single day and up to a week. It is normal chart behavior though.
So this is not a concern unless the secondary peak (the one forming today for example) exceeds the first which can then sometimes be interpreted as an impulse move higher or alternatively a mere higher-high on the second peak before the decline begins.
If you are concerned then the time to exit is if golds behavior turns bullish upon meeting or exceeding the prior high. Risk of loss is reduced by monitoring price as it approaches that peak but its not a reason to panic sell. Personally I am not worried because to my way of reading technicals we have already struck the top on this cycle.
There are never guarantees though and patterns sometimes fail to yield the results we expect. The market itself is the final judge of what will happen. In other words we are dealing with probabilities here and if you have read my earlier posts you already know my assessment is that the case to short gold has better odds than getting long.
I can’t advise you what to do but I will say that the first rule of trading is to not lose any money. In my case I take a cautious approach and it obviously bothers some others who come to this site. Most of them are gamblers and think in terms of absolutes. Everything must be black or white and once you have taken a side they expect you to remain on that side.
That is some of the stupidest thinking around when it comes to trading. You must be prepared for adversity and if the expected result does not materialize you simply change gears and shift to the other camp. So forget loyalty to a trade. You are not married to anything you bought or to any decision you have made a day or a week before.
Just walk away if it does not feel right and keep your account intact to trade another day when your confidence is higher. People like JJHarmen who posted above should be ignored at all times as they try to back others into a position and make them commit to either a bullish or bearish side with no consideration for the complexities of the market.
Those kind are usually terrible traders and are unable to bet in both directions.
Sassy, being a bull or being a bear is a fools game. You don’t ever need to take sides since you are free to play both at will and never apologize for changing to the other camp.
This is not a team sport. Opinions from other people are mostly worthless.
Still two days left on the $100 discount.
Clearly I was correct again on another ICL.
How many times must we go through this before traders quit listening to the perma bears with their perpetual calls for a bear market every time we get a normal correction.
Are you really willing to miss the vertical phase of the bubble because you kept listening to the sky is falling tribe?
It’s still early in a new intermediate cycle. Now is the time to get on board, not 2 or 3 months later after we’ve already made huge gains.
10-12 point move tends to get soxl into profit taking mode.
Gary,
You still haven’t addressed the issue of YCL in Nasdaq.
I find it odd that you put so much attention in ICs when yearly cycles are beginning to come into the picture — if you don’t look at the yearly cycle, is that supposed to mean that it doesn’t exist?
It’s easy to wallop BigDaddy upside the head, but I think it’s more useful to try to figure out what’s going on with yearly cycles! 😉
The YCL occurred in March.
A very weak ICL for sure, as was this one.
Not unusual for a market about to transition into the vertical phase of a bubble.
PS: For the record, I do not read BigDaddy’s posts, though I usually read Gary’s & Ped’s reactions to them. And I usually do not mention that name — shall go back to that practice toute de suite (for des amis Canadiens)…
You, Pedo and Gary seem to get along pretty damm good. We are happy for you.
Aren’t you supposed to be sleeping now Zkot?
Nada,
Any chance that the .24% retracement to 1298 was sufficient for this DCL? I know, a very mild correction, but we did break strong resistance around 1300.
Or do you expect a revisit of the top at 1325 and then DCL? Cheers,
Things are shaping up just as they should. Stocks are starting the vertical phase. Gold is starting to sniff out inflation and is rallying along with stocks.
The big quick money will be made in the stock market during the vertical phase. This is similar to a baby bull in that the gains are huge and come quick.
Once the stock bubble pops then liquidity will go looking for something that is still rising and that will be gold. Then we will get the bubble phase in gold.
There simply has to be consequences of years of QE and those consequences were never going to be deflation. It was always in the cards that the Fed would create another series of bubbles.
Sold 2500 USLV at 13.52 for a nice profit. I’m smiling, dogs smiling. Now we need to see the stock market take a dive.
Ped has clearly missed again on the metals market.
At some point he’ll finally recognize gold is now in a bull market.
It often takes most people up to 2-3 years before they can see the turn from bear to bull.
Ped never misses anything. If gold continues to rise he will claim that he foresaw that event. The guy should be running his own website as an analyst. Maybe he already is.
JJHarmen
“maybe he already is”
You are a real thinker. Congrats. wink
What are you saying? Pedo has his own website? Elaborate please. i hate riddles.
They are just making that up. I have never had a website in my life. I only post on Gary’s site and its purely for entertainment although lately I have not being enjoying the reception all that much.
JNUG up nicely today. 500 is hyper-funny. 50 is more reasonable.
Trump would have to reset Gold/USD to 20,000 for JNUG to reach 500.
Gary reminds me of Sinclair calling for gold to $50,000.
You clearly have no idea how bull markets work, especially during the final bubble. They always go much much further than anyone can imagine at the beginning.
How many people thought bitcoin would go above $3000 5 years ago?
Based on the early action this morning gold seems to think this is a half cycle low in the currencies and not an intermediate trend change.
Why would anyone pay hundreds of $$$$$ for a subscription when your best advice is simply buy stocks and enjoy the vertical rally?
Are you still short miners?
Well I guess because I was pretty much the only one talking any sense telling traders that we were just experiencing a correction that would soon be over and the vertical phase would begin.
Or you could listen to the perma bears perpetually calling for a crash and miss the entire bubble phase of the bull market.
Jeezus, how many times must I call these ICL’s before people start paying attention?
I suppose many people will just never get it no matter how many times I catch these turns or how much money we make.
I’ll say it again: 10,000 will be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question.
And JNUG will reach at least $500 by the time the bubble phase in gold tops.
Seriously? If the market goes vertical, Gary’s subscription will be worth every penny.
Tomorrow is either going to represent a reversal in the near term trend in the PMs and miners or, more likely IMO, a “come to Jesus” moment for anyone holding DUST or JDST.
Ped, is Sheena still in bed this morning? LOL!
Evening here, asshole.
Please stop with the silliness.
Shut Up Lena
Sheena, you never did address the question as to how you knew Pedestrian , Zkotpen and yourself lived in three completely separate parts of the world. For all you know, they might live close by you.
Because I am of average intelligence and managed to pick up that Zkot lives in Asia, and led in Canada. And I am pretty sure of my own location. So bugger off D*ckhead.
LOL!!!
Sheena, I think I just broke a rib laughing. Too damn funny.
Oil, “bull markets born in pessimisim” …… think we are there.
JJ, your response makes no sense. So the market is only going vertical for those who give Gary hundreds of $$$$$?
allthatglitters, not very many investors have been expecting the SM to go vertical. Those that are Gary’s subs would feel differently and would be happy to have paid a measly 500 bucks if they make thousands. Does that not make sense?
Gary, when the stock market goes vertical, do you expect the gold miners to out perform during that event? I am in GDXJ and wondering if some other sector would do better. Thanks.
No.
I think you should have some of both. But heaviest in stocks during the vertical phase. You can focus more heavily on metals after the stock bubble pops.
@Herman
Here is the thing. Today will be the monthly close. Very dangerous, but now it may look like upside to new highs or 1330ish. I am not sure, to be honest. I do not believe the DCL occurred, but everything is screwy at the moment.
This is exactly why I scale in small and buy itm options with plenty of time. I am still adding to my Nov puts.
One thing to be sure, technicals do not mean shit. Its all about following the money. The BOW for GLD has been a clear indicator of upside.
Disagree strongly about technicals. I have been saying for months now that AXU’s tight consolidation looked remarkably similar to 2010’s based on the incredible confluence of the 20 and 50 DMAs. So far it is playing out to script.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80255779405&a=542213962&listNum=1
I also mentioned that the triangle in the GDXJ:GLD ratio would be key for both bulls and bears:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p36393884483&a=542214885&listNum=1
Well, maybe I was being a bit dramatic. However, nothing trumps money flow. The algos can paint the charts however they like. We have seen WS produce technical break outs time after time to set traps for traders. Of course I trade technically, but if I see money flow say differently, then it takes precedence.
Gold is a good example. It was looking very bearish looking at the charts the past 2 days. Then we see BOW for GLD and what does gold do? It heads North and ignores the strength in the dollar.
Nada, the older guys here at the office say the markets are nothing like what they were even ten years ago. Fundamentals and Technicals don’t work like they used to.
@Lenapowich Yes, with the HFT it is much more difficult and I agree that technicals/fundamentals mean next to nothing in respect to flows. Do you work in finance? Curious about the older gentlemen in your office and their experience.
The monthly BBs (20,2) for GDX and $gold will narrow in even more tomorrow. At this point barring an epic collapse into the close, I expect the upper Bollinger band to be the next target for the miners and gold.
GDX’s upper monthly BB is 29.71 and $gold’s is $1372. Again, by tomorrow those numbers probably will drop a bit lower and should represent the first resistance levels for both IMO.
JJ, no you’re completely missing the point, The advice is very simple and is given here over and over for free. Why would anyone pay for it?
I am still skeptical of the Dow’s rally. Of course, no way in hell would I short it, but I still think the path of least resistance is down.
The Dow’s move above the 1 month trendline today could be a headfake IMO. Tomorrow will be telling IMO for both the stock market and PMs. In any event, as I said yesterday, I think the miners will crush the stock market returns going forward, in a continuation of the trend that started in January 2016.
Gary said above: “And JNUG will reach at least $500 by the time the bubble phase in gold tops.”
To be clear, Gary’s original $500 prediction was prior to the 4x reverse split, so the new number should be 2,000 for JNUG.
I would settle for 500 post reverse split, however.
I have a feeling that one word will be written on his tombstone. JNUG
The only question of importance : What is the smart money doing now? Are they buying or are they selling?
My guess is we will know by the end of the day. I doubt they will continue to hold in front of NFP, unless they know the numbers are bad. If there is no SOS, then we know NFP is bad.
Sheena. Why are you looking to pick a fight with me? I have no problem with you. Where you from girl?
You are a bully.
I am not a bully. I challenge Pedestrian because he has said some very nasty things to others and is the real bully. The man is very deceptive and a creep. You have not been around long enough to see his true colors. As I said, I have no issue with you and I wish you well with your trading.
Actually I have been around a while. And I disagree, although there is a lot of nastiness going on, Ped is not the problem. JJ, Bigwhatever, Kennyboy and you are.
You see anyone who questions Ped’s credibility as a “problem”? You haven’t said a single word about the markets or what it is that you are invested in. You are just another one of Ped’s fantasy creations for self praise. Sicko.
Ped, knock off the impersonation nonsense and get out more into the real world. Get a life man.
Based on the 20 and 50 month EMAs for $hui, we are in the exact same spot we were back in the beginning of 2002. Just like back then we are sandwiched between the 20 month EMA, below, and the 50 month EMA, above, with price now approaching the 50 month EMA.
In 2002, the $hui went on to bust through that MA and rallied for 4 months in a vertical rise. I have a feeling we are about to get a repeat. The 50 month MA for $hui is 222. Once we bust through that number, the rise should be explosive.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=M&yr=20&mn=0&dy=0&id=p57036043068&a=542218057&listNum=1
AXU is now above its 50 month EMA, which is 1.59, and barring an epic collapse today will close this month’s candle well above that level. That is going to be bigtime support on any pullback now, IMO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=M&yr=10&mn=0&dy=0&id=p72806415057&a=542220450&listNum=1
Another opportunity to exit from nugt?
Many people blew up their account trying to short the miners during the baby bull.
IMO it’s a very poor strategy to trade against the dominant intermediate trend. Surprises come in the direction of the dominant trend.
The correct strategy is to buy dips when the intermediate trend is advancing, not try to pick short term tops.
You may get lucky once or twice, but over the life of your trading career this kind of trading will guarantee you have less money in your account than you would have had if you abstained from counter trend trades.
WTF? This stock market won’t quit going up and I haven’t got a single long position. Plus, I left money on the table on USLV. SOB.
20 year outperformance of gold vs miners ended in 2016, and we are now setting up an epic head and shoulders top in the gold:miner ratio. This will be a life-altering move once it breaks down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD%3A%24XAU&p=W&st=1995-08-30&en=today&id=p43239942174
i think maybe the most important take away from golds price action lately is that we seem to have broken free from the yen influence to some degree. I dont necesarily understand the obsession with the dollar here since most of golds price action can be linked to the dollar.
If you look at a monthly chart of gold vs $xjy, it is clear that gold has been consolidating in an ever tightening range vs yen since 2011. That consolidation came to an apex this month and right now, fingers crossed, gold looks to be breaking out vs yen.
” I dont necesarily understand the obsession with the dollar here since most of golds price action can be linked to the dollar.”
huh?
to the yen i meant, sorry.
spanky – thx for all your charts and analysis – real good work imo.
And we see again why I keep stressing it’s not safe to short the stock market.
The quickest strategy ever devised to lose money is to try to pick a top in a bubble.
I agree. I am done attempting to short, even strong SOS numbers impact the movement. I closed out my 2 little contracts on the SPY for 150 dollar loss. I will not attempt to short this market again unless something fundamentally changes. The dip buyers are been rewarded time after time. I certainly do not suggesting buying here, but when Kim launches his next missile, BTFD.
BTW, I don’t mind a scalp here and there for a day trade with shorts, but the most important thing I have walked away from on Gary’s blog is, stop attempting to short this insanely powerful bull market.
The Dow is looking to put in a doji candle today. I am going to go way out on limb as say I think the Dow breaks down hard tomorrow. Again, I would never ever put money on that. It’s just a gut feeling.
I am less certain about gold in the very near term. It could certainly cool off here, as could the miners. at least to let the MAs catch up. Not selling or anything like that because it’s possible we get another big gap up before reversing tomorrow or next week. Again, as long as the GDXJ:GLD ratio stays above the 20 dma in the next week, I will remain in the staunch bull camp for the forseeable future.
I would think the GDXJ:GLD daily chart would at least tag the 200 dma before the miners cool off. It’s not that far away.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p52192917305&a=542240459&listNum=1
The Dow looks like it is topping against commodities. A similar H&S is also on the weekly ratio chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24INDU%3AGCC&p=60&yr=0&mn=2&dy=0&id=p04357641460&a=542245045&listNum=1
The stock market may still go up, but commodities are going to go up even more.
Everything will go up together in an inflation. But the big quick money will be in the stock market during a vertical phase. Stocks will begin to behave like bitcoin.
Commodities will take over once the stock bubble pops.
One want’s to be very heavily invested during a vertical phase.
I disagree. I think commodities take over now.
labu outshines tqqq 4 times, 40% vs 10%.
Seriously… you can’t tell me you don’t understand this.
Yes biotech will likely outperform the Q’s.
The price for that outperformance is that you could wake up one morning to the entire sector gapping down 10% or more if the idiots in Washington do something stupid. And they almost certainly will do something stupid once we get closer to the next election cycle.
So you have to ask yourself if the outperformance is worth the risk of getting caught when the hit comes?
For me it’s not worth it. I will make plenty of money in TQQQ. There’s just no need to get greedy. Safer is better in my book.
It’s kind of the same decision one has to make during a bubble. There comes a point where you just have to accept that the risk is becoming too great. You decide you’ve made enough and get out. And don’t look back. The very very few people that are able to control their greed will walk away from a bubble with immense riches. Those that fail to control greed get caught when the bubble pops and lose it all.
Added a few more DUST at 21.80, looking to unload at 23 when Gold will dip after today’s move up, and add JNUG on the dip tomorrow … Will that work?
**Clearly this is the BS going on with gold today**
It appears someone is trying their hardest to give a monthly close over the bear market trendline -starting trendline from 2011;
https://i.imgur.com/CGhwbW9.png
We gap up tomorrow and we never look back. (Or maybe not.)
Nah its all for show. Tag and into the abyss.
It becomes obvious who is on the wrong side of the trade. The big bull shitters always seem to disappear when they are wrong. Somehow, they will always break even and will not join the contest. I simply do not like a hypocrite.
As one egotistical little boy, whom I will not name, would add on here, anyone buying DUST last week simply does not know how to read charts and does not know how to trade the market. They would be better off in real estate. YOU know who you are, talk is cheap and actions speak. So good luck little boy, I wish you the best in your new career.
The unfortunately fact is that one can’t successfully trade the markets using nothing more than charts.
If it were possible every retail trader in the world would soon be a millionaire.
Those that think they have an edge in the market with nothing more than chart patterns or indicators have almost no hope of ever making sustained gains in this business.
One needs to understand fundamentals. That will give you the cyclical trend.
One absolutely needs a subscription to sentimentrader to monitor sentiment. When it reaches extremes the market more often than not reverses no matter what the fundamentals or chart patterns are saying.
You need to monitor the COT reports to get an idea how big money is positioning. You also need to know how to read the reports. (You need the formula to calculate the Blees rating).
You need at least one more confirming tool to help anticipate trend reversals. For me that would be cycles.
Then least of all chart patterns and indicators as a final confirmation once your other tools start to line up.
Nice post.
With all that being said how is it you manage to blow so many calls? Your public record is 50/50 at best according to those who monitor sites like this run by so-called gurus. If there was any magic formula Gary don’t you think that people like yourself would be billionaires by using it?
And if you were doing that then why even bother to run a site like this? The most famous investors on the planet blow calls all the time. They did not all get rich using Blees and Sentiment-trader.
What they prove is luck, timing and balls are also valuable assets in investing.
The truth is that there are no magic 8-balls. Not even the one you prescribe above.
Actually my record is about 60-65% which as you should know is about as good as any of the best money managers in the world.
One can make a lot of money only getting it right 60% of the time. Heck one can make a lot of money only getting it right 30% of the time. One can also lose a ton of money getting it right 90% of the time. This is why most newsletter writers like to brag about how often they win. It brings in subscribers. But it tells you nothing about whether they are making money or not.
Over the last year and a half the metal portfolio is up 147%.
The stock portfolio is up 114%.
The only portfoflio I’m struggling with is energy.
All in all I think pretty much everyone would agree that the system is working pretty good.
Now if you want to join the challenge and make real time calls we can judge whether you are actually making sustained gains or just taking one step forward and one step back.
Very good.
It’s still too early to tell for sure but it’s looking like all we got was half cycle lows in the currencies, not intermediate trend changes.
want to swap uslv for DAG here but 50/50 makes sense longer term. decisions…DAG should tag 4.2+ imo but maybe not for 60 days. uslv could hit 29+ by end of year….can i switch back in time? grrr..
Is there any hope for the ERX trade? I’m just watching it fade day after day.
If you have the patience to let it work absolutely. Oscillators ALWAYS cycle back to overbought eventually from oversold levels. That is a certainty. Eventually the weekly charts will cycle back to overbought and that’s the point where one wants to exit ERX. In the meantime though it could get painful watching your energy position doing nothing while others are making good money in other sectors.
This is why I keep telling people to focus on the stock market. It’s where the big quick money is going to be for the next 6-12 months.
In the end you could even end up outperforming the stock market with the ERX position but can you realistically hang on and delay gratification while everyone else is making money?
I’ll wager the answer is no as retail traders have never been known for their patience.
Funny thing Gary, you are the one that called for RX trade, and unless something changed recently, it’s still part of your SMT portfolio.
*ERX
As you well know only 20% in energy. I’ve reduced that down to 10% or less.
I suspect you ignored me and went all in on the energy trade? Even after I begged and pleaded with people to focus on the stock market?
Gary, I can understand the high risk of LABU, but you seem to have a strong contention that the semis are going to drive the Nasdaq. It also appears that SOXL has more upside than TQQQ. So I’m wondering, does SOXL present more reward but with similar risk to TQQQ?
SOXL is probably a good alternative and some of the accounts I manage are in semis instead of the Q’s.
Gold looks like it will peak around 1327.50 today.
Ped. Nice try but spot gold peaked at 1323.46. I love how you keep ratcheting up your target price for gold since you first predicted it’s demise months ago. Don used to say you were a fraud and that has since become clear to me. You must be getting slaughtered as the day trader you say you are.
Gold futures topped at exactly 1329 by the end of the trading day. Check it for yourself. You are watching the wrong charts (figures since you are a dope and lost money today again). Meanwhile, had you taken my advice first thing this morning and bought NUGT you stood to have made better than 6% on the day. My target incidentally was as close to perfect as one might have expected. Certainly better than yours.
I told you gold would retrace most of the move back to the highs of the 29th. And it did.
Guys like you never listen though.
LOL you told us that after it had already done it. It would have been a lot more impressive if you had made the call yesterday.
The challenge:
Real time calls.
including percentages.
You tell him Gary. NUGT was up in pre-market and gapped up right of the hole first thing so his NUGT call was no stroke of genius. Now, if he had made the call yesterday, different story.
LOL! Ped, you crack me up, You try so hard to sound clever and fail miserably. You must be using future charts (that roll over continuously) instead of the spot (cash) chart. Here is the chart you should be using
https://www.tradingview.com/x/jmbg4Esd/
As you can see, the top was 1323.63. You really are an amateur, aren’t you? LOL!!!!
I hope the first tag and reversal was not just working off overbought conditions and this monster blasts through;
https://i.imgur.com/LZDOeox.png
soxl and tqqq ripe for profit taking?
It’s dangerous to exit long positions during the first 3 weeks of a new intermediate cycle. This is when the most upside surprises usually occur.
Today wasn’t in my forecast, but it happened anyway!
Gary,
Why do you say, “the currencies”, when you’re only talking about EURUSD and its approximate inverse, DXY?
Have you even looked at GBPUSD or USDJPY?
Not the same story going on there as the one currency pair you look at and use as the basis for generalization.
The euro makes up the biggest part of the dollar index. Where ever the euro goes the dollar moves inversely.
Bullish context generating in the ten-year yield (TNX), which signals impending bearishness in bonds and notes:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/31/10-year-notes/
A bullish data point for equities…
gold fundamental ‘do not fade’ indicator makes new closing monthly high, just a couple ticks off yearly high from 2 days ago.
gold closing august over 1320 – oh my.
Still below bear market trendline. 1hr and 4mins remaining. They could not manage with comex open.
I’ll warn again that it’s not safe to short during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. That goes for gold as well as stocks. It’s a very poor strategy and one that will, over the years guarantee you have less money in your account than if you didn’t try to use these counter trend strategies.
hmmm … unless this is not an advance phase, but just a quick rally on NK issue, which can be old news by tomorrow
Sound advice from Gary.
Just following on an earlier discussion. It would seem to me the best value for a subscription during a bubble is to know when to stay and when to get out. The value of getting out before the bust against the cost of holding too long will pay for a hundred subscriptions. Every dip will look like the beginning of the end and during the end run it’ll be rising so fast you wouldn’t dare pull the trigger in case it goes higher.
AXU getting a bit silly here on the daily chart. Hard to envision it going up yet again tomorrow.
Ped – Regarding your comment re: 2 day ago peak in gold being a key barrier. Real time charts like GDX and GLD are virtually tied with 8/29 peak. We shall see tomorrow whether this was an HCL or DCL from that data.
Sorry – I meant half cycle peak or daily cycle peak, not lows.
I got stopped out of SQQQ first thing this morning for a $220 loss. Glad I did because it didn’t get any better as the day progressed. No use fighting a market that wants to go up. I still have 800 shares of GDX so It’s not all bad.
I think the time for the miner’s to shine is upon us.
They sold.
GLD -195m
GDXJ -185m
GDX -180m
I mean, it would be insane to hold. We are at bear market trendline and NFL tomorrow. 8/22 and 8/24 GLD bow and GDXJ bow released. Sleep tight bulls.
You mean SOS?
Yes they sold positions on strength. Matches up with my 1265ish and your outlook short term.
Ha. No I was saying they released their prior buying on weakness today into strength. They are flat in front of NFP.
US equities trading near all-time highs in the phase of a number of very bearish cycles. Imagine what these market will do when the cycles turn bullish. Fully agree with Gary. This is the place to be. Some US stocks have patterns that you see only in the text books. It would be wonderful if the markets could move sideways for a few weeks but I am not sure if we are going that lucky.
Nada,
I noticed the SOS as well. From outta nowhere into the top 10, all 3.
As I learned at last year’s Sep NFP, (or October’s? the Goldilocks NFP), do not bet an outcome, rather, wait for a higher probability setup. One lesson I managed to learn the easy way.
Key difference between then and now is, you can trade the NFP much better with Forex — and no crazy gap time nonsense.
Yes, report updates every 15m and they like to sell and buy at end of day. GL zkpotpen.