A day and a half left

Folks you have a day and a half left to receive the $100 off offer.

We clearly have an intermediate cycle low just like I was warning. We are starting the vertical phase of the bull market. Many people exited right at the bottom or cancelled their subscriptions this past week, right before the market took off to the upside.

This is just how the market works. Most of you have to lose money so the rest of us can profit.

If you want to make the big money possible during a parabolic phase and think you may need help staying the course this is your chance to get on board.

Or if you are happy always missing the move because it doesn’t come when you want it to … then just keep doing what you’re doing 🙂 90% of traders won’t make a dime off the bubble.

I intend for the SMT to be part of the 10% that does make (and more importantly, keep) the big gains that are coming.

10,000 will be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question during the really nutty phase of the bubble.

Like our new Facebook page to stay current on all things Smart Money Tracker

164 thoughts on “A day and a half left

  1. zkotpen

    ETFs and DXY are morphine and codeine, respectively: Can be helpful, but also serious contraindications and highly addictive.

    The DXY is by no means “currencies” — it is a near equivalent of inverse EURUSD currency pair. You cannot look at one currency pair and its approximate inverse and draw sweeping conclusions about the currency markets. Still, DXY and EURUSD are useful — They tell you what the world’s two major reserve currencies are doing, and very little more.

    The ETFs can be even more effective, but also more addictive, and can have a dumbing down effect. You can use them effectively by trading them. But you can also dumb down your analysis by eliminating 73% of the day’s data & getting your fix on an ETF chart.

    1. Sassybabe

      Does anyone know what this man (Zkotpen) is talking about? Morphine, codeine? Is he saying Is he saying we are addicts because we prefer to use ETFs rather than buying dozens of individual stocks? Am I the only one that thinks he is some kind of kook?

        1. Sassybabe

          I am sure he is ‘cool’ but do you understand what he is talking about? If he is an ‘asset’ then maybe it would be better if he used plain language so we could all benefit from his knowledge. At times, he is practically incoherent as if he was drunk or stoned or something like that. I am not trying to be insulting but I don’t think I am the only one that can’t decipher his rambling style.

        2. RTTPD

          Amen. Nothing wrong with one being a little different than the next.

          I like reading each of their perspectives. All three —- Don, Pedestrian, and Zktpen.

          But it would be better if they didn’t take up so much space trading endless/worthless insults.

  2. Sassybabe

    Why is everyone so down on Pedestrian? He has been very nice to me. Sure, I am not happy that my GDX short is going the wrong way, but I am sure Pedestrian will be right in the end. Everything he says makes good sense, at least, to me.

    1. Nada

      There is no reason to be. I have never seen an insult out of him unless someone attacked him. His analysis is solid and others enjoy simpletons who say they have a gut feeling. Regardless, it’s not like he is saying.. oh hey I made x amount of dollars today, please love me I am so pretty.

      https://youtu.be/MWGciuLuH8k

      This video reminds me of one particular person.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Nada I know your remark about ‘simpleton” was about me. You stated that today, you closed out a 2 contract SPY position for a $150 loss. Nice of you to be honest, unlike some here.
        I closed out a 2500 share position in USLV for $1585 profit ( in addition to a 500 share sale of USLV a few days ago for $500 profit). I have now executed eight winning trades in row, all documented here.
        I give you credit for being honest but you are another guy who talks a lot but you are not even in the same league as some of us simpletons.
        Sonny, you can stuff your wise assed remarks up where the sun don’t shine.

        1. Gary Post author

          Jesus I’m getting tired of having to wade through these childish insults everyday.

          Can’t you people just debate the markets without losing 50 IQ points in the process?

          1. Nada

            Sorry Gary, I try to provide some usefulness and do not like the BS in regards to trading in hindsight, but certain individuals telling someone to piss off can not be ignored

        2. Nada

          BD, let’s take a minute to reflect. I am more than happy to admit when I am wrong and this is not the first time I have listed a loss. I play options, so my timing has to be precise. I do not come here to brag about my winnings, but if you woukd like to compare broker statements, I am all in.

          The problem I have with individuals like yourself is you offer no technical analysis or provide any usefulness. The very trate you complimented me on, is the only reason I have called other log members out. I do not enjoy bull shit. Back up what you say with a real time call or STFU about a win.

          I don’t think you are a hindsight trader. However if you do not understand someone or if a trade does not go the way someone saud, you tell them to “piss off”. Sir, I would like very much for you to tell me to piss off in my face. You are a weak man to speak to someone in that manner. So yes, that is my issue with you. Yoiu are a disrespectful coward hiding in your shed.

          1. Bigdaddy

            Nada. It was YOU that called me a simpleton, unprovoked. I have every right to defend myself against unwarranted insults! You have handed out plenty of insults to others so you can stop with the sanctimonious horseshit.
            As for my trading record, all my trades have been posted here within one minute of notice of a fill. I take heat for my losses that i freely admit to so why should anyone gripe when i post a win?
            You are wrong about one thing, I am no coward and not a “little man”. I am a retired from the Air Force after serving in Vietnam as a combat pilot. Shot down twice by SAMS (rescued, fortunately). I know all about chicken little guys just like you and have zero problems with telling anyone to piss off to their face when they deserve it and you definitely deserve my disrespect.

          2. Nada

            Yeah yeah, keep running your mouth. I made a comment about Gary’s perspective on bio and then you told me to “piss off”. That is how this started between you and I, so no it was not “unprovoked”.

    2. Bigdaddy

      Sassy, how many times have i told you to do the opposite of Pedestrian? I took the time to find a couple of examples of just how wrong that man can be. These are his EXACT words from one month ago:

      Pedestrian
      August 2, 2017 at 5:51 am
      It’s very possible we see gold trading below 1200 dollars by late August. That might just be the set-up we need before gold gets bullish again on a seasonal basis and ready for traders who come back in September. It’s too early to tell yet but this is not a great time to be getting long miners in my opinion.

      Sassy, it is now late August and what has gold and the miners been doing since August 2? way up and he missed it. Pedestrian will kill your account if you follow his advice. Look what’s happening to your GDX short and wake the hell up!!

    3. Pedestrian

      I can answer that question Sassy. What you need to know is that I have been trading gold as a bear since 2011 and that infuriates the guys here who are serious gold devotees and only bet on the long side. I presented charts that made a case gold would not exceed its inflation adjusted highs for another Pi cycle of 31.4 years (from the 2011 high)

      It was an excellent chart and drove some of them apoplectic.

      You have to appreciate some of these turkeys bought gold and mining stock just a metals were hitting their top in 2011 and they NEVER sold. These are incredibly bitter people. But they believe in gold so staunchly they can’t bring themselves to sell despite deep ugly losses.

      Instead they just keep praying for that day of salvation when the bear market ends. Some of them have lost 50, 60 and 70% of their portfolio during the long wait and whenever they read a commentary saying gold might be heading for another cycle lower they just blow their collective lids and explode on the screens with streams of nasty comments.

      But they are broke Sassy………. Broke, angry and frustrated.

      It is why I said to you to consider both sides of trading gold. There is no profit in taking up the Evangelical side of the gold community that preaches gold is the salvation to all wrongs. Cripes, these boneheads have been calling for end-of-the-world inflation and have been wrong since the 80’s and yet they still persist in the idiocy.

      You could have bought just about anything else in the last 30 years and made more money.

      That includes stocks, bonds, real estate and antiques autos. The bug-tards cannot handle that though. Gold is supposed to save you during inflation, deflation, QE and martian landings. It MUST be undervalued. And yet mysteriously it is not and trades for pretty much exactly what the market has decided it is worth.

      So when you read guys harassing me it is usually the ones who lost their portfolio in the long 6 year decline. They are still licking their wounds and the only satisfaction they get is knocking down anyone who has something to say.

      There is no love lost between the bulls and the bears.

      There is even less love lost between the bugs and common sense.

      You can’t fix stupid.

  3. zkotpen

    Nada, Pedestrian,

    I notice that the GLD, GDX, GDXJ BOW/SOS numbers often surge just after 4pm, if they’re going to get into the charts — like today. Seems like at least one of the other days Nada mentions also did that.

    In the “currencies” — it does look like GBPUSD, EURUSD, and USDJPY are at or near their respective points of USD weakness (i.e., dollar looks ready to resume its rally).

    24 hrs ago, I was looking to short JPY and even GDX at some point on Thursday. But USDJPY got beaten back at some serious resistance & could not take out the Aug 16 high. Couldn’t go below the 108 floor a few days ago, either. Seems too risky to expect a break from that rigid range round 108-111 for the time being.

  4. Bigdaddy

    Sassy. I found another Pedestrian gem, this on silver:

    Pedestrian
    August 8, 2017 at 1:58 am

    Silver is in deep trouble here too if the dollar rally’s hard. The SLV chart implies a fall below 14 which will be devastating given all the technical supports that get smashed along the way and the implication that this ongoing bear market is far from dead yet.
    I am looking at adding to short positions. This is going to be too good to miss.

    Do I have to tell what silver has done since then? I went long and have reaped profit. Now he claims that he hasn’t shorted anything because the time is not right. WTF? He’s never wrong, as far as he is concerned. He has no conscience.
    The man has nearly a 100% failure rate when it comes to predicting anything beyond today. I confess that i was once swayed by his smart sounding talk but i wised up quick. Do your own reading and save yourself from that idiot.

    1. Sassybabe

      Thank you for your concern (Bigdaddy). I have been very naïve. I guess I should be doing some reading of past comments on my own before tying my fortunes to someone just because they sound good. It is my intent to make that tonight’s reading project. TY again.

      1. Gary Post author

        It took me several years to figure out that just because someone sounds convincing it still doesn’t mean they have a crystal ball and will get every call right.

        No one bats 1000 in this business. The quicker you figure that out the sooner you will get in the game.

        That means be prepared to lose from time to time and never bet your whole wad, because just like poker if you go all in and lose you can’t come back.

        So often I hear novice traders complaining how this or that analyst cost them everything. Nonsense, someone else didn’t cost you everything, you did it to yourself because you didn’t believe you were going to take a loss. So you bet way to heavily. If you manage your risk you can lose many times and still make money.

        The other side of the coin is that one can win 90% of the time and still lose money.

      2. palobar

        Hello Sassybabe,

        Trading based only on some else’s view is a BIG mistake we have all made. You should always do your own homework. No one is perfect in this blog including Gary. We will all make a wrong assessment from time to time. For example, Gary is most of the times correct. Sometimes he will also make a mistake. Last July Gold made an important high. Gary felt that Gold was early in its IC phase. Nevertheless, Gold dropped 20% from that week. And here is the KEY. How one deals with his mistakes is what separates traders between winners and losers. Gary knows when he is wrong and that is why he is a successful trader. On the other hand, there are some market timers that just keep drawing the same arrow that points down for the SPX. After 8 years they still have the same view. I suggest that you read Michael Douglas book Trading in the zone before you take any other trade. It will help you.

        Regarding your open position. Before you pull the trigger, you have to have CONFIDENCE in that trade. To have confidence you have to gain KNOWLEDGE first. Why are you making that trade? If all the reasons are there (see Garry’s earlier post – cycles, sentiment etc) then there is a reason to hold your position and accept the volatity and fear of buying at an extreme low or selling at an extreme high. If you have done your homework properly, eventually, the market will most likely move in your favor. However, often the market will move against you and that is where you have to draw the line. When that line is crossed you have to get out. Respecting that line is VITAL to keep you alive in this game. No trade alone is worth the mental and financial pain. Dont worry there will be plenty opportunities in the future.
        Good luck.

        1. Pedestrian

          I will add one thing more. Most of the readers here appear to have no idea how tell the difference between speculative comments and actual trades. If I say “I think such and such might happen” that is not a trade.

          We all do that and it amounts to talking out loud to see what others think of certain set-ups. So nobody should ever expect speculative commentary to result in either a profit or a loss. And certainly not a trade since speculation amounts to taking best guesses at the future and are often not backed up with chart evidence. Usually they are ideas that come from fundamental causes.

          For example “Stock markets could fall hard if the debt ceiling does not get resolved”

          That is an unknown though. We can only guess about the cooperation in the Capital and wonder aloud how it might affect us if the US gets downgraded by the ratings agencies. Sure, markets would probably sell off. But we can’t know for certain until the time arrives.

          Big Daddy is one among many here who have a brain block on this subject. He posted a comment from me up above which was exactly the kind I refer too and then concludes (incorrectly) that I must have lost a bundle. Just ignorance on his part or an inability to read.

          Every person who comes to this site needs to appreciate that forecasting is no science and the evidence of that is reviews from the best traders in the world who make annual predictions about markets.

          They are almost universally wrong in long shot guesses of up to one year. So I am not ashamed to also be wrong when its well known this kind of activity is about equal to predicting the weather. Same deal with Don, JJHarmen, Mac and quite a few others who display incredible ignorance in their daily posts.

          I mean WTF do they expect. We are all working with the same set of information and trying to decipher in our own ways but NOBODY has a crystal ball so nobody can be wrong with speculative comments about an unknown future.

          A trade on the other hand is quite specific. When I have posted trades here there is no question what I am talking about nor what my expectations are and I have been mostly correct in targeting both entry and exit points. Not always of course. Usually I am a little early but knowing that is useful to me because I know to hold fire when I first get a flash or good idea.

          Gold is a good recent example. There were several resistance levels I was watching but the one that finally looks like the real deal was in the upper range of my expectations. When I returned from summer recess I did not trade the rise in gold because I thought it was already near a top. So what? It is not usually a good idea to chase prices and people who do so often end up buying at tops.

          Instead I chose to wait for the turn and put my emphasis on an impending bear trade. That took a couple weeks longer to materialize than I anticipated but I think the results will be worth it and the risk was minimized.

          Gary is as bad as the others here. He thinks I lost money by not trading gold up recently and yet he will be the first to say “don’t chase a trend late in the cycle” So he is a hypocrite accusing others of taking the advice he so often offers.

          Honestly, I am dismayed by the lack of finesse most traders here use. It is just gamblers and big mouths who invest more by the level of hormones in their bodies or the level of alcohol in their bloodstream. Complete idiots in my books.

          And quite a number are just out and out trolls.

    1. Gary Post author

      Except it’s never going to happen like that. By 2030 (it might take a few more years but not many) biotech will have advanced to the point where we’ve stopped or even reversed the aging process. No one will have to retire because of the effects of aging. They will retire if they can afford to and want to. The diseases of aging will be a thing of the past.

      This will cure our debt problem also as social security, medicare and medicade will become obsolete and a thing of the past.

      This is what humanity does. We solve our problems. No matter how big they first appear we always eventually find the cure. That’s why I never buy into the end of the world hyperbole. What’s the point of betting on the end of the world? It can only happen one.

      1. RTTPD

        I think that’s quackery Gary.

        Whatever advances we see in the future with regard to technology/ bio-medical, they will be offset by all the shity dollar-store proccesed food that’s been marketed to us over the last 35 years.

        Couple that with Monsanto and the whole race-to-bottom mentality that’s driving our economy, and we’ll likely see the first generation that doesn’t live as long as their parents.

  5. dboz

    I am eating humble pie today. Blew up my personal account. Not devastation, just a couple of bad compounding moves. Not getting into details, but need to regroup, recollect and rethink. DON’T try to save/rescue a bad play, just cut your losses and move on. It ain’t all always rosy as Gary mentions above. Sometimes you just get it wrong.

  6. zkotpen

    Sassybabe,

    As I tried to point out, they are useful, but prone to dependency and addiction. Get the use out of them, but don’t rely on them, especially at a time when markets are in flux, and we need to be looking at that closely, not in broad, general terms, and certainly not eliminating 73% of the day’s data.

    –Yesterday, Gary suggested March was the YCL in Nasdaq. The day before, I posted my thoughts on the yearly chart. I don’t agree. YCL was Feb, 2016, and I believe it could very well be in the works at present. Not some instant crash, but more sideways, more of a move toward the 200 day SMA. So is it time to load up on the stock market, or perhaps time to be patient and get ready to load up on the stock market?

    –The DXY has been weak all year. Fine big brush stroke, has worked most of the year. But the Yen has wanted to be weak, and the GBP began its rally against the dollar 2 months before everybody else. We’re not using the correct tool to measure details, at a time when details are more significant than usual. If the yearly trends are changing, it’s time to take a closer look, with greater attention to detail.

    Examine the component parts, then see how they fit into the whole picture. And if you’ve got good data, use it. If you want to simplify, remove overly complex indicators from your charts, remove everything that you don’t use to help figure out whether one outcome has a higher probability of occurring than another. But do not eliminate quality data (by using GLD instead of gold, or the Yen ETF instead of USDJPY in your analysis, for example).

    If you do that, you may come to a different conclusion, say, about recent rallies in the Euro, GBP, Yen, and even gold. One would be forced to question any belief that the dollar is on the verge of collapse, for instance.

    My ideas point at the following:

    -Probability assessment
    -Strategy
    -Risk management

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m not sure you understand how to identify a YCL. It has to occur within the calendar year. So it’s not possible for the YCL to occur in Feb of last year. It has to be in 2017.

      A YCL also has to be an intermediate cycle low. So one doesn’t just pick a date in the year that happens to mark a low. In theory the lowest point could occur on January 2 but that wouldn’t be a cycle low. The cycle low could come several months later. The YCL would be at the ICL, not on January 2.

      I also tend to use the SPX for marking YCL’s as it is the largest index. Sometimes one or more of the other indexes can diverge a bit from the S&P. The most recent ICL is a good example with the NDX not really following the SPX into the ICL. For tech the ICL occurred back in July.

      For the calendar year 2017 the YCL occurred in March. We won’t be going back below that level until after the bubble pops.

      1. vin

        Gary,

        He does not understand a few things is an understatement. But then there is no one who understands everything. So, that in itself is not an issue at all.

        What makes him difficult is the way he goes on and on about things he has no knowledge of. “Little knowledge is a dangerous thing”. There is a similar proverb in Asia which literally means that a half educated doctor can be more danger to your body than the disease itself.

        1. Pedestrian

          Seriously Vin? I have no problem reading Zkot’s comments. I don’t get all the criticism against him every day. He just has a different way of expressing himself. Nothing wrong with that. Why do you guys bother to waste your time?

  7. zkotpen

    Sassybabe,

    “I guess I should be doing some reading of past comments on my own before tying my fortunes to someone just because they sound good. It is my intent to make that tonight’s reading project.”

    That ain’t it! That absolutely ain’t it!!!

    Wrong reading project — but it’s easy and entertaining.

    Do your own due diligence instead of worrying about what this one or that one said!

  8. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Looking for the site non-disclaimer but can’t find it!!

    You might want to make sure it’s prominently displayed to warn people engaging in risky behavior!

  9. Christian

    I’m starting to see the kind of divergence that would normally take place at a cycle top in the Miners.

    I’m gonna go ahead and buy one last tranche in DUST if Miners deliver one more high over the next couple of days.. Remember folks, eventually GOLD will correct and deliver a DCL of some sort, if one is patient enough 😊

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to make a comment that you know is true and I’m not sure why you are ignoring it.

      It is dangerous to short into the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. Doing so will cost you a lot more money over the course of ones career than you will ever make by trying to outsmart a rising intermediate cycle.

      The much safer strategy is to just wait for the DCL and then buy.

      Many many traders blew up their account during the baby bull trying to profit from a DCL that took much much longer to arrive than anyone anticipated.

      If this turns out to be nothing more than a half cycle low in the dollar then it could be the middle or even towards the end of September before gold produces a DCL.

      It’s tempting to think one is smart enough to time both the ups and downs of a market but most of the time they are not.

      Are you really sure you want to take a counter trend trade here? Is it really worth the risk especially when it’s so easy to make money buying DCL’s?

        1. Pedestrian

          Christian, he is only right if you accept that this is “the advancing stage of an intermediate cycle”. Some of us disagree strongly and in my case I absolutely believe we are still within a bear market having seen little more than a throw-over on the long term falling trend-line (on gold).

          If you believe this is a bear market in metals then you are not buying a counter-trend rally at all when you take DUST positions. In fact you will be buying the trend that has prevailed for the last 6 years which is still the most profitable side of the metals market.

          So I guess risk is subjective isn’t it.

          Gold just posted a lower high on the gold hourly chart. If it cannot break out to new highs then we are going down for the count. I am also in the bear trade if you need to know. If this goes against me then so be it.

          But so far it has worked out as expected.

    2. bginvestor

      dude, if you think the cycle is right translated (and I think it is); you’ll have a higher probability to wait for the DCL pivot instead of shorting a potential small pullback.

  10. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “I’m not sure you understand how to identify a YCL. It has to occur within the calendar year.”

    There is one unit of time in markets, which corresponds to one natural Earth day. Everything else is derived. Useful, but derived nonetheless. If the data point to a different result, we need to respect that. Fractal patterns occur in nature and in markets — they are not contrived, rather, that’s how the data play out. Fibonaccis occur in nature and in markets, so we look at them.

    The market has discrete days, but not discrete calendar years. A calendar year is convenient for accounting purposes, for example, but the market need not abide by it.

      1. victor

        vin, I try to skip zcotpen posting just because I have no time to read such long posts, but I don’t understand why some people don’t understand his writings. He is highly intelligent man and he probably can’t understand why people complaining about his writing. To understand him you guys need to read at least 3% of the books he read.
        I would not follow his trades though.

    1. Gary Post author

      Most of that went right over my head, but I can tell you we aren’t going back below the March low until after the bubble pops.

      I can say with about 99% conviction that we aren’t going below last weeks low until after the bubble pops.

      I’ll give it one more week to make sure this was an ICL and then I’ll make that call.

      1. zkotpen

        Aha… now I see the confusion.

        I’m talking about the yearly fractal, which only roughly corresponds to, and is not ruled by, the calendar year.

        What we’re discussing here is whether the correction in Nasdaq is on the yearly or intermediate fractal. As you know, the yearly fractal would mean a more significant correction — probably more time consuming and not so deep as some people seem to expect.

        Still, it’s relevant in timing entries, preventing whipsaw, and setting stop-loss. And we know that the stock market loves its traps, including the overthrow/undercut variety. So if the correction is yearly, or if we’re not certain, we can take protective measures with a cool head, if what you think is an ICL goes on to form a YCL.

        So my assessment is, I see decreasing momentum the past few months in Nasdaq — on a yearly fractal — despite the higher highs. How would an engineer put it? “Level is increasing, but at a decreasing rate” — on a yearly basis.

        Something to at least be on the lookout for.

  11. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Thanks for pointing out the disclaimer. You might want to add a little bit extending your warning to posts by 3rd parties.

    You’d think people would know to do their own due diligence and take responsibility for their trading decisions, but it seems more than a few lean very heavily on people they like and the commentary of others. It’s great to discuss trading/market ideas, but people need to make their own decisions.

    Cheers!

      1. Cardio2

        Hey Pedestrian how is that USDCAD of yours doing? Love how 2 days ago you said it was going much higher. Like I have said, you are the best contrarian indicator. Gold also ripping higher unlike you predicted. Keep posting your predictions so I can continue using you as a contrarian indicator and making $$$$.

        1. Pedestrian

          Unlike guys like you who play it say and say nothing at all until after the fact? Yeah, keep that up. You are quite the risk taker up there in the peanut gallery with the rest of the monkeys. LOL!!!

  12. victor

    “Pedestrian
    August 31, 2017 at 11:53 am
    With all that being said how is it you manage to blow so many calls? Your public record is 50/50 at best according to those who monitor sites like this run by so-called gurus. If there was any magic formula Gary don’t you think that people like yourself would be billionaires by using it?”
    Ped, for you to know Gary is a multi-millionaire and it’s a privilege for us to have this blog read for free. It’s going to end soon probably. He has about 3000 subscribers, not sure as for now but I guess when bubble phase about to finish Gary subs should reach all time #’s too, 10,000 ?

  13. chrisG

    Gary, just wanted to say thanks. You are right about the shorting part. I have been a bull for most part. But my occasional shorts did cost me to lose part of profits. The recent quick turn would have been disastrous if not for my quick exits. Was thinking of 200 dma, but the NK missile test helped me. The quick reversal during morning trading, scared me to square my shorts, and fortunately turned long in a big way. I recalled your video that they could turn this around quickly, and decided not to fight the tape. My days of nikkei short had an original 300 points stop. Scratched at 30 points instead. If not, would have lost Tens of thousands. Instead, now the NDX longs is already up 150 yummy points .

    I am still heavily long gold, and silver and PM stocks from days ago. Not yet heeding your advice on unleverage PM positions. Hopefully, could survive tonight.

    Once again, Tks! And Tks very much.

  14. zkotpen

    Christian,

    “I’m starting to see the kind of divergence that would normally take place at a cycle top in the Miners.”

    Me too. And with just enough ambiguity to make me think one more push up in GDX Friday, followed by a reversal.

    Gold, Yen, Pound, and Euro seem to suggest similar movements, each looks like they might have another push against the dollar, then reverse… GBPUSD may have already done so!

  15. Emptyness

    @Gary: By 2030 (it might take a few more years but not many) biotech will have advanced to the point where we’ve stopped or even reversed the aging process.
    Gary, you are probably a very good swing trader – but you don’t have any idea of natural science. What you are saying is completely nonsense. Biotec is a big money machine – but it doesn’t work for us human beings. The Biotecs doesn’t want to solve the health problems of human beings. Yes, they want us to live longer – but they make money thanks to diseases. That’s the plan: Live 100 + and consume a lot of pills to endure it. Please, don’t talk such a rubbish !

  16. Emptyness

    Positive supplement: Our future is to become self-responsible to our health, then we are able to stay healthy in our old age. Yes Gary, “the diseases of aging will be a thing of the past”, but not because of biotech ! When people know how to live a healthy life, we don’t need Biotech anymore (sorry, biotech investors …).
    Also we don’t need biotech to solve our debt problems. What we need is – again – a healthy financial and political system. Not to spend any longer tinkering about with the symptoms.

  17. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Switching from Nasdaq to SPX —

    The March low doesn’t even make a dent on the yearly fractal, but does some damage on the intermediate. I call that intermediate wave 4, which looks like a triangle. Yearly cycle shows five waves up after that — intermediate wave 5 completes the Yearly cycle high and then comes Yearly wave 4, possible/likely in progress.

    So maybe the last YCL in SPX was November — that one certainly made the intermediate cut. But I’m just not seeing the effects on the yearly fractal which are present in early 2016 in SPX. Ain’t gonna say I see them if I don’t, you know, based on something as arbitrary as a calendar.

    Either way, a visit to the 200 day SMA — likely to be sideways, maybe triangle (with possible overthrow high), maybe a flat (with possible overthrow high).

    That scenario is not a certainty, but should be taken into prudent consideration. Yearly cycle wave 5 may not commence as soon as you think — it may grind out, and down some, before it takes off. That’s what the yearly and intermediate charts look like: All 3 peaks since March 2 have been “increasing at a decreasing rate” — i.e., on declining momentum which should show up as divergences on any momentum indicator. Intermediate volatility is stable; yearly volatility is decreasing.

    Can only report what I see 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      That was the purpose of the last video. If all we got was a half cycle low in the currencies then it could take much longer than many are expecting before gold drops into a DCL.

  18. Steffmeister

    Good afternoon 🙂

    Money is pouring into the Steff GDXJ mining potfolio … with a few exceptions, like K92 suffering from riots by locals 😐

    S&P500 looks fishy to me … a double top and then!?

  19. Cardio2

    2 days ago Pedestrian said USDCAD would be going much higher. He is the best contrarian indicator folks. Just do opposite of what he predicts and you make money. Bank on it.

  20. Goild

    Good morning,

    This place, SMT, is part of our work place.
    Keeping it tidy, neat, useful, valuable, enticing, inspiring is to advantage to all.
    Humor is a big plus.

        1. roadrunner

          so are you thinking that if we pull back in PM’s until 5/6 Sept, the trend will reverse and go higher from that date? or Conversely if we continue to rise until 5/6 Sept then the trend change would be down?

          1. Nada

            Yes, I have the ones I mentioned the other day GLD 124p Nov 17th expiration and I added to those and also bought GLD 125p Nov 17th expiration at the trendline this morning. I am looking for just a DCL, but I bought time because I hate theta and gold is very stubborn, so nice to have a little extra time. It is risky to short due to the geopolitical environment, but the debt ceiling issue looks like it will not be a factor.

  21. bluebull

    Ask yourself, “If Gary is such a great trader, why are so many cancelling their subscriptions?” Gary makes his money on selling subscriptions. Period. Always has. Always will. He swings for the fences with 3X ETFs and when he blows out his portfolios, he resets them. This is well documented on several websites. Google Gary Savage and you can confirm much of this. The best thing you could do for your portfolio is NOT to subscribe to this fraud. You will blow up your account if you follow his trades.

    1. Gary Post author

      Nice try.

      They cancel because like almost every retail trader in the world they don’t have the patience to wait for their position to work. So they end up missing the profits. The go in way too heavy and then get scared out for a loss that if they had just been patient would have turned into a win.

      Look at every intermediate bottom. That’s where all the cancellations occur. Right when they should be buying.

      Now look at every intermediate top. That’s when all the new subscriptions come in. Right when they should be selling.

      I’ve tried everything I can think of to get traders to fight their emotions and do the opposite of what they want to do. Sadly most will just never be able to make it over that hurdle.

      My real time calls speak for themselves. But in order to make those gains people would have had to do the opposite of what everyone was saying on this board at the time.

      The time to buy is when you are scared to pull the trigger. The time to sell is when it looks like price is going to the moon. (except in a bubble. Then price really is going to the moon.)

      1. bluebull

        “They go in way too heavy.” Your trades in the official SMT portfolios have had 100% positions in ERX and TQQQ numerous times this year. That’s 300% exposure! You Gary are the one going in way too heavy. If you don’t time a decent entry, then you hold on for months, even a year. Stubborn and foolish. A subscriber has a massive draw down and you belittle them as “weak and scared.’ Or you blame the PPT or “intervention.” Seriously, you’ve ruined many lives and accounts. How you look yourself in the mirror everyday and keep doing this to unsuspecting people is truly morally reprehensible.

        1. Gary Post author

          You know very well that is not the case. I’ve been very clear, no more than 20% of ones portfolio in metals or energy trades. So when the metal portfolio is at 100% it would mean you had 20% of your total capital committed. So even if one had lost 50% in a metal trade it would still only be 10% of their total portfolio.

          I’ve gone over this at least a dozen times. The only portfolio I’m comfortable telling people they can go 100% in if they choose is the stock portfolio.

          You know all of this. What’s the purpose of spreading these lies? You never seemed like that kind of person before. This is the kind of crap Avi would pull, but in my opinion it’s beneath you.

          1. bluebull

            That is true. In the last few months you have suggested less capital in energy and metals. However, this is a recent change by you. I have to admit you did learn something from that disastrous JNUG trade last Fall.

        2. AT

          That’s also the reason I didn’t re-subscribe a month ago, plus the big increase in annual fee when things went south and Gary did reset the portfolios.

          Maybe I was the only one , but unfortunatelly, after 1 year as a SMT sub I was in the red, biggest hit beeing a JNUG call around last Oct. My fault for getting all in too much, not Gary’s.

          The reports are very good, I liked reading them every day, but also found quite a few times you should be a contrarian to Gary’s calls to make profits 🙂 (Still holding some ERX)

          That beeing said, I appreciated all these reports, learned from them, and I think this is a really good daily reports site, especially if you are luckly enough to pick and choose Gary’s winning calls …

          I would re-subscribe tomorrow if the annual fee would go back to $200s.

  22. chrisG

    Those who’s been following Gary and cant see that he has some valid skills could only result in one outcome. Those fools are destine to lose money overtime. In trading, if u cant be humble to learn, cant throw your ego out of the door, u are finished.

  23. Steffmeister

    not a big fan of S&P500, I am bullish Gold though 😛 and has been for a while …

    Ped needs to learn “let the trend be your friend, logic in emotions out”

    pure&simple!

  24. chrisG

    Gary is so right about people not willing to patiently wait for a trade to work out. Instead, they leverage to the hilt, then got shake out big time. Then complain market doesnt work. Lol. Why i know so well? Cos I used to be there once upon an extended period of time. A wise man said, doing the same thing expecting a different result is …. Stupidity!

  25. Peter

    I’ve been a sub of Gary’s for a month now. Does he get every call right? No. But who does? Like everything, you shouldn’t follow one person but pool numerous data sources and opinions to make your own call. Gary has a great perspective and offers valuable insights, but you should never follow one person as gospel. I have lost on Gary’s gold and ERX calls since I joined, but if you give up on the first set of losses I think you are doomed to fail. Need to play the long game. I am cautiously optimistic about the bubble theory; I’m very optimistic that we have more run in this current daily cycle in stocks. Whether an ICL or bubble comes after that is anyone’s guess at this point.

  26. chrisG

    BB is a babyboy. Amateur. I have read gary’s post. BB must improve on his comprehensions. Months ago, gary has never advocate all in on Oil and gas. His stance all along is consistent. Max SM. OG only 20%. Or lower.

    Anyway, enough. Rant all u want. I love quarrels and insults on threads. Quite fun sometimes. But i am only talking to the pros. More meaningful. Pros talk to pros. Respectful pros correct the amateur. Disrespectful pros insults the amateur. Sadly, other than ego, i also often leave my respect and manners at the door! lol

  27. Spanky

    Gary I wish you would stop using 3x ETFs so much. I think it seriously clouds your short term judgment. Remember the good old days when 10-20% margin represented steppIng on the gas?

    3x leverage is absolutely insane. Hell 1.5 to 2x is insane and probably represents the outer limit of what most brokers are willing to allow in a typical margin account, and for good reason.

    Just my 2 cents.

  28. JJHarmen

    Cash gold (which GLD follows) hit a high of 1328.8 early today. The next big target is the 2016 high of 1375. Don’t make the amateurs mistake of using futures charts (a does Mr Pro Pedestrian) for charting purposes. Contango or backwardation distorts futures charts as they roll from one month to the next. I am no pro but even I know that.

    1. Pedestrian

      On this subject you are absolutely 100% wrong. Reading the wrong gold chart will send you astray every single time. The ONLY charts I ever use to evaluate gold are futures charts and I have had better results than almost anyone I know. And the reason is that the algo’s are programmed to buy and sell based on what happens in the those markets. Think about it for a second. Which is the money that moves all the other trades around and ties together the correlations?

      It’s currencies and futures.

      1. JJHarmen

        Ped, remember when you were all gaga about the WEAT etf ? When the recent wheat futures contract rolled to the next month, it appeared that wheat jumped up big due to extreme contango. Then WEAT was down on the day. LOL!

        1. JJHarmen

          And what is the statement “I have had better results than almost anyone I know.” supposed to mean? Since you are wrong on just about everything, I take it that you don’t know anyone whose results are as BAD as yours.

  29. Spanky

    Using 3x ETFs is simply gambling. If you want to use leverage, take a page from Jesse Livermore and ease into it on pullbacks and gradually build up a margin position as the trend establishes itself. Use a vanilla low interest margin account. I’ll stick by my view that 3x ETFs are the crack cocaine of the stock market. They WILL ultimately ruin and stifle any natural talent you have as an investor.

  30. WYSIWYGN

    Spanky, could a reasonable investment in JNUG (3x ETF) not be sensible, say for some 2k usd, at 17,50 for instance?
    And holding it all the way up to 500, like Gary suggests?
    Worst case you lose 2k?

    1. Spanky

      I am in this for big money and gains. You will never ever achieve that using 3x ETFs. Period. You could get incredibly lucky, but just like the gambler at the tables, it will eventually catch up to you.

      Using a vanilla margin account, and building leverage over time, I guarantee you will destroy anyone playing 3x ETFs over longer term periods (6 or more months).

  31. sheena

    Since Gary is deleting Perdios comments, I´ll give this a shot.

    Last year Gary advised to buy JNUG at 23 dollars, right before the free fall. His mantra was ” a bull market corrects all timing mistakes”. When JNUG was at about 13 dollars Gary erased the model portfolio. He then suggested that those who wanted could close. But still repeated the mantra that the bull market would correct the “timing mistakes”. After the reverse split JNUG would need to be 92 dollars just to break even.

    At the time I respected his decision to erase the model portfolio. I thought he was stressed out and couldn´t handle the pressure. But then I found out that he had erased model portfolios previously when trades went against him.

    This is when I lost my respect for you Gary. Making mistakes is fine. Not owning up to them, and abandoning subscribers is not. I´m guessing that this is what led Blue bull to lose his respect for you too.

    And Blue bull, I think I owe you an apology.

    1. Gary Post author

      Then you also know that I advised trades to stop out if gold went below $1275 I explained my reasoning very carefully. It took gold a long time to get above that resistance zone. If it lost it it would be a bad sign. And that I’ve been strictly advising no more than 20% of ones total capital in metals. They are just too volatile and stuck in a trading range.

      Most people did stop out. Some chose to ignore the stop. Ultimately they will be just fine as JUNG will easily go above $500 split adjusted before the bubble is over. But they are going to have to be patient. It’s going to take several more years before we get to the bubble in gold.

      We got back in very close to the bottom in December and easily made back all of the losses. The metal portfolio is up 147% over the last year and a half.

      So… is there some reason you are choosing to omit the stop and the rest of the trades from this year that have brought the metal portfolio back very nicely. I’m mean seriously who is going to complain about 147% in a year and a half?

      1. sheena

        Because it wasn´t a stop. By then the model portfolio was erased.

        As I said, you suggested that those who wanted to could stop out ( with a 50% loss). But you also stressed that the bull market would correct the timing mistake.

        1. Gary Post author

          And the bull absolutely will rescue all JNUG positions. See my post lower on the leveraged ETF’s.

          BTW most people did honor the stop. A few did not. Those few probably didn’t because they ignored me about only using 20% in metal trades and couldn’t bring themselves to take the loss.

          It”s not that hard to recover a 50% loss when using a leveraged fund if you can enter pretty close to the bottom of an ICL, which we did in Dec. But most people can’t see that when they take a loss. At the time it seems like you can never recover, but you can and we did. We went from up 167% back to +50% and then back up to plus 147% as of the current total.

          Am emotional rollercoaster for sure but not that bad if you adhered to me 20% guidelines.

          The easy money is in the stock market. This is where most of ones money should be.

    2. vin

      sheena, I don’t remember your name from old days. But you are right. I am also one of those who bought it at about average price of $44.88 (i.e. 11.22 before the split).

      However, the game is not over yet. It could very well go to $2000 as prophesied by Gary. As you can see Gary has a great following. So, he must be doing something right. People must have done well with his advise. What is your opinion? BTW do you still own jnug?

      Triple leverage is a tricky play. It only works when the ascend as started with no large downturn. I did warn of its dangers with actual examples.

      If market goes up in a zig zag way, one can lose money in 3X while the market has actually gone up. The trick is to determine the time when the market has started to go up without a major decline during a certain period.

  32. Spanky

    if you want more than 1.5-2x leverage but don’t want to be, trade futures like any sane professional investor would. There are myriad reasons why futures are much better vehicles than 3x ETFs.

    1. Spanky

      Meant to say, if you want more than 1.5-2x leverage, trade futures like any sane professional investor would. There are myriad reasons why futures are much better vehicles than 3x ETFs.

      1. Ex Nihilo

        Agreed, Spanky. The decay on leveraged ETFs is well-documented; futures are a much better way to use leverage but only if you know what you are doing (and few do).

        No one has any business using leverage (or even trading) unless (1) they have excellent risk management and (2) they have a proven system that can consistently make them money…

      2. vin

        You are right that 3X (or even 2X) are a dangerous play and should not be owned as a speculative play unless one is sure that the market is headed up without a any major decline.

        BTW theoretically speaking if everything works in one’s favor, one can do better than 3 times with 3X investments because of the effect of compounding.

        And, on the negative side one can lose money with 3X while the X actually goes up.

        It is as tricky as that. But, it as an excellent daily trading tool, probably one of the best, much better than futures or options.

  33. WYSIWYGN

    If Gary’s right and gold bulls along with all other assets, then what could be harmfull in buying (limited amount) JNUG at say 17,50 and riding the wave up to 500? Can anyone explain me the negativity on JNUG?
    Spanky, with “playing 3x ETFs” you mean “trading”, then?
    What if you hold onto them, like Gary suggests?

  34. chrisG

    Spanky, u r right. I dont use 3x leverage too. I advocate, if u wanna use, use 2x for swing trades. But i rarely use them at all. i prefer to use margin accounts if need be. These etfs have a build in math that is destined to destroy accounts. You just have to learn the math. But most doesnt understand it. Pick your poisons!

  35. 1970confused

    Gold closed well above 1300$ for August and broke above bear market trend line POSITIVE , BPGDM$ still at 35% POSITIVE, Gold stocks based all summer long and just broke out POSITIVE and last but not least lots of naysayers still out there not believing the stealth rally going on DOUBLE POSITIVE :). Keep up the good work Gary

  36. Gary Post author

    Look at this chart and tell me again about the decay in leveraged funds.

    There is only decay when price is going sideways or against the ETF. There is significant to monstrous outperformance when price is trending strongly in the right direction.

    Now can you see why I say JNUG is easily goin to go over $500 before the bull market is over? But it’s going to require one hell of a lot of patience to achieve those gains. It’s took 8 years in TQQQ.

    It will take at least 3-4 in JNUG. Maybe longer.

    1. dboz

      If you use GDX at about the same as it was back in 2016. At the same level JNUG was around 64, now 22. So about a 42 dollar decay factor. But I agree, if it trends up for a sustained period it will get back there.

    2. vin

      Gary you are 100% correct in your comment on leveraged funds. Please my comments above.

      But, please also note that when the market is headed straight up, on can make more than 3time with 3X because of compounding effect. So, it all depends.

  37. WYSIWYGN

    @ JNUG : well then, suppose you have 1k usd to PLAY with (so not needed money). Let’s say you buy JNUG at 20. Gary’s target 500 : 20 = 25x (=25k). LOSS risk: 1k.
    Or am I really stupid now?

  38. AT

    Gary, would be nice if you consider 1 year promotion for the old price $200 for old subs there were hit hard last year in the JNUG trade. I would definetelly give it another try …

    1. Nada

      Doing well since I *entered*. Of course it has been in a bloodbath phase, then trend is now attempting to change.

      If you go back in look at the previous posts,I specifically stated that I entered Jan options and the day to back up the truck was August 31st or something along those lines.

      /XW recovered the 10ema forming a SWING and now attempting to take back the 200ma, so yeah its doing WELL.

Leave a Reply