276 thoughts on “Dollar – another failed cycle

  1. Surf City

    Gary, I thought I would re-post this here as it lines up with your video.

    You are correct on the USD being very weak here. I believe that the USD’s 15 Year Super Cycle has topped in year 9 and should now be moving lower over the next 7 years into its next Super Cycle Low (Five USD 3 year Cycles = SuperCycle).

    https://surfcity.co/2017/08/26/usd-super-cycle-update/

    1. BobUK

      Gary,

      If the USD is going to go down in the way you and Surf suggest then doesn’t that mean that all the base metals – copper, nickel, iron ore, etc, etc – are also going to rally hard and their respective base metal mining stocks are just going to continue upwards?

      (Many of those base metal miners – especially those on the FTSE or Toronto – have rallied considerably since late June.)

      I could see that happening but I am less sure of how the NASDAQ & DOW continues to rally into this melt-up if the USD is going to fall through the floor?

      Foreign money will be less inclined to invest in US stocks if the value of exchanging from Pounds, Euros, Yen, whatever, to USD results in them losing on the currency trade even before they have bought US stocks?

      Surely, for the NASDAQ to double then a rising USD is needed as that would bring in vast sums of overseas money into US markets. Or doesn’t it work like that?

      Just asking.

      1. Gary Post author

        Lets assume I’m right and the dollar continues to collapse. Historically this has caused inflation. Bernanke was counting on that when he started QE1. It worked perfectly as planned. Everything inflated. Stocks also have a history of rising when the currency they are traded in goes down. Look at what happened to the Nikkei as the yen dropped or European stocks as the euro tanked. Global profits go up when the exchange rate is moving in favor of a country. Profits are already up 20% YoY for the last three quarters. If the dollar continues to fall expect that to continue.

        If stock prices are rising faster than the exchange rate is falling there’s no reason for foreign money to avoid the US. That has certainly been the case for the last 10 months even though the dollar has been dropping.

        And to answer the second part of your question, yes I think base metals will also benefit from an inflationary trend. The caveat is that precious metals should benefit more. Commodity bulls tend to unfold in two phases. What ever leads the first phase usually doesn’t lead the second. The first phase of the commodity bull was led by base metals and energy as emerging markets surged higher. The second phase of the commodity bull should be driven by currency debasement not economic demand from emerging markets.

        I think we can already see this developing. Notice that oil and the CRB dropped below the 2000 lows during this last major bottom yet gold didn’t even come close to its 2000 low. The market is already trying to tell us that the precious metals are going to be the leader during this next phase of the commodity bull.

      2. Surf City

        BobUK, I agree with you on Base metals and the broader CRB. Gold will lead the broader CRB out of a long Bear, IMO.

        Take a look at the Copper chart along with the charts of base metal miners BHP and RIO. I have been in both RIO and BHP since the summer of 2016. Both charts are much more bullish than the Gold Miners, IMO and much more steady with nice dividends along the way. That said, Copper’s Intermediate Cycle is in its 4 month of an uptrend and should be close to topping soon, IMO.

        Jim Cramer mentioned Copper on Mad Money last week so we have to be close to a top… LOL πŸ˜‰

          1. Gary Post author

            I haven’t really noticed if copper has a dependable short term cycle or not, but clearly the YCL just occurred back in May and we’ve got a very convincing breakout above the 200 week moving average. Looks like copper has also started a new bull market not long after gold.

          2. Pedestrian

            One thing copper did right was bottom near 2.00 right on the multi year support line since year 2000. That happened in December 2015 as you can see from this linked chart and what it did afterwards was basically form a bear flag in an obvious five wave Elliot move up. If it does turn down imminently as I suspect then we should expect it to eventually ping off that same support level around 2.10 thereabouts (or alternatively watch in fear if it breaks below the primary support line).

        1. BobUK

          Thanks Surf.

          I have avoided Rio, BHP, Glencore and the other FTSE listed miners – but, being in the UK, I really should have stepped aboard them. You must be sitting on some very nice big gains.

          I am more than a tad anxious about buying them at the moment as, as you say, copper looks very toppy. I suppose the thing to do is to wait for a pull-back in copper.

          1. Surf City

            Waiting a bit is a good plan. I took profits on some of my RIO and BHP positions on Thursday and Friday last week and plan to add them back near the next Copper ICL which should be in a month or two. I may be wrong but Copper has had a fairly reliable 5-6 month Intermediate cycle.

  2. Gary Post author

    Here’s a different way of looking at the long term chart. Instead of trend lines we can see that each successive bull market has failed to make a higher high after retracing some of the prior bear market. And each successive bear market makes a lower low.

    The dollar is in a long term secular bear market. It makes sense as no reserve currency has ever stood the test of time. If you give a government the freedom to counterfeit their currency they will inevitably do so until they eventually destroy the currencies reserve status.

    You can’t fight human nature. It doesn’t matter whether it’s an individual or a government, the drive to get something for nothing is simply too hard to resist.

    1. Surf City

      Gary, I agree with you that no Global reserve has ever stood the test of time. This is actually by design as the Elites understand that the Fiat game is all about confidence so they need to “roll out” something new and fresh every 30-40 years or so. The USD was backed by Gold for 30 year followed by the PetroDollar standard which artificially inflated demand for USD’s need to settle global trade.

      The G20 agreed back in 2010 to begin to phase out the unipolar USD as the global reserve in favor of the IMF’s SDR Bond, which is a basket of currencies that is comprised of 5-6 currencies where the USD has the greatest weighting (currently). The process will take years but “demand” for USDs will decline over time driving it lower.

      Here are some links from a site that has lots of info on this ongoing transition. I don’t agree with everything but there is some good content on the site (food for thought). The second link has an imbedded PowerPoint that is quite detailed and interesting on how this will take place over time.

      https://philosophyofmetrics.com/masking-sdr-new-gold-standard/

      https://philosophyofmetrics.com/sdr-new-bretton-woods-volume-one/

  3. Pedestrian

    By the way Gary, I read your comments and saw the video and you made a pretty good case today. I appreciated the effort. Can’t agree on direction of course but you were convincing this time around. Pencil me in for a dollar rise anyway.

    Some one has to take the bull side of the market!

    1. Surf City

      Ped, I agree with you in the short term. The USD is deeply oversold and overdue to find a 5-6 month ICL very soon. That said, my expectations are that any Intermediate rally will be corrective in nature against the primary trend which is now down. I would expect a brisk rally at some point that will top out with a lower high, followed by a lower low. Rinse and repeat this lower high and lower low scenario into its next 15 year Super Cycle Low.

      1. Pedestrian

        Great comments Surf. You could well be right.

        I have looked at some pretty convincing charts of the dollar cycle (The Presidential Cycle is one example featured not long back on Gold Tent) and will admit they have altered my thinking on where the dollar was going. Guess we will know better once this next bounce is complete if it fails to exceed the prior highs.

        Here is the Yen/Dollar chart that I think helps make the case for a gold decline coming very soon. Run a resistance line from the peak in 2012 to the peak in 2016. There is some serious resistance coming right up on that chart. Maybe just a penny away from it now (?) but if Yen cannot break out then its back down we go and with it will go the hopes of the devoted.

        Even more interesting is the channel established by the low points of 2013 and 2014 which are in near perfect parallel with the highs of 2016 and 2017 (sorry but you have to draw the lines yourself). That one suggests we have already arrived at a resistance top.

        Yen is about to decline and gold is going down with it unless there is a last minute miracle break out.
        http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6J&p=m1

  4. ras

    $cdw getting ready for a double top? Implications for us$ and the commodity complex? Let us watch the story unfold?

  5. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    As noted in my posts on the previous thread, I’m in the same camp as you this time ’round… can’t load Surf’s charts for some “database error”…

    Still, it doesn’t really matter whether this potential triangle in the DXY makes a lower low than 2016. Either way, the “3 year cycle” is shaping up as a running triangle — might be expanding (if said 2016 low is exceeded), might be contracting (which I think is more likely, if it is not).

    In the past, I had not been traveling with currencies! Heard all about the massive bargain that was Europe in the 80s — only to arrive in the 90s. Lived for years in Argentina when the peso was pegged to the USD. CLP was not much better, in the 450-550 range. Then went back to Argentina, and to Brazil, in mid-2009. Mexico in 2011. I guess I used to be a forex contrarian with my own bank account! The last disjointed effort, as far as currencies go, was Thailand, 2013… after that, my currency fortunes began to change… ever so slowly at first… April, 2013,… but they reached the bottom of their long term bear market.

    Now poised and moving in a more favorable direction πŸ˜‰

  6. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    “Guess we will know better once this next bounce is complete if it fails to exceed the prior highs.”

    See my post above — exceeding prior highs or not doesn’t matter in this likely multi-year sideways contraction in DXY and EURUSD.

    As for JPY, “(sorry but you have to draw the lines yourself).”
    Nah… I’ll go along with you and opt out of line drawing for now πŸ™‚ JPY/gold have been the weakest of the major reserve currencies during the dollar’s decline all year. Not likely that will change toute de suite! Yearly volatility in USDJPY is contracting. Price reversal on a Yearly basis likely in the coming weeks… or October as Gary suggests.

    1. Pedestrian

      No no, Zkot. You have to draw the lines. This is how I sort out the serious people from everyone else (by not drawing the lines for you). The real technical guys don’t even hesitate to check. It’s easy as pie. Just slap a little plastic ruler right on your screen for a quick easy check. So much faster than fiddling with software trying to draw lines and then match them up. I have a great quicky method too. First you find your main support line and then without even moving that clear plastic ruler you just use the scroller wheel on your mouse to move the whole screen image until you locate a parallel match.

      Maybe I am just getting too lazy to learn new software.

  7. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    I know, I know.

    If you think about it, science must necessarily break with traditional belief and practice, damn the torpedoes, as it were.

    I’m gonna trust my intuition on this one, not what the classic folks have always done.

  8. Goild

    Zkot,

    I’m gonna trust my intuition on this one, not what the classic folks have always done.”

    Little is said about using intuition in this business.
    In day trading it has an important place.

  9. zkotpen

    Goild,

    I concur. And in art, science & other things, too.

    My biggest mistakes in life have been when I ignored that little voice that whispered in my ear, showed me the way… but I went some “rational” way — much to my chagrin!

  10. butch

    I see many here are losing sight of the big picture. The gold triangle. The widest stance is 300+. This translates to a target of at least 1375 before a correction. The triangle is right there, but many ignore it. Sad.

    1. Pedestrian

      Butch, your assumption is that the triangle is going to break to the upside. There are a few people who disagree though (very very few actually) and doubt that the recent small breakout above the channel is anything more than a “throw-over”.

      In other words it is a meaningless technical event since it could not sustain itself. Had that really been the start of a bull market then prices would not have immediately reverted to back below the channel as they have done. Far too much is being made of that one day event.

      And I don’t believe a single word of it.

      What you should be watching for instead is a breakdown on the chart because there remains unfilled gaps on the long term support lines for silver, gold and platinum. Some analysts have gotten so hyped up on a little spike over the resistance line that they have completely lost sight of the big picture. And as a result they will look like damned fools again a year hence.

      I am sorry to tell you this but you and many other bugs are heading for a very big disappointment. Gold will break lower and fall deeper than you can imagine. And once it has broken lower it is going to fall lower yet on another cycle. I still remain extremely skeptical of all the pie-in-the-sky numbers being trotted out recently.

      There is (almost literally) nobody representing the bear case anymore and as a result the entire gold community of analysts are marching together like a pack of sheep right over the cliff and getting their subscribers positioned on the wrong side of the market yet again.

      All talking about how this coming strong season of 2018 will finally see the long awaited breakout in a new bull market for gold. Hurray! I almost want to believe it myself and for the sake of avoiding arguments on sites like this I have recently toned down my bearishness in appeasement.

      But nothing has really changed in my outlook. Gold is going to get smashed in the face and a few more bloodied teeth will be knocked out before it ever soars higher because that’s what the charts say. Ninety nine percent of the ink spilled by so-called experts on this subject is hyperbole, fantasy, false hope, lies and deception.

      Most of the technicians are not honest anymore either. You can prove almost anything with the right charts (!). But anyone who is really being honest with themselves and looks objectively at gold and silver can easily discern that the bottom has not been struck yet. And that means we are still going to fall below the prior lows of 1045.

      How’s 950 dollars sound?

      That’s about where I think we will be in the summer of 2018. It is just a year away now and should mark the final bear market bottom. From there I expect to see a doubling of gold taking us all the way back up to 1850 something as a rough estimate.

      We will not exceed the old highs set in 2011 though. The chart does not allow for that as we already had a bubble in gold 6 years back. So the next peak will form an approximate double top coming in as a lower high. And we will not see 5000 dollars as others assert. The preposterously stupid gold predictions for 10,000 and higher should not even be considered by rational minds.

      Just forget about it.

      If you really must invest in this space then I suggest you do so with care and not go all-in like so many others do. Gold still calls for caution with a bias to the downside. It remains in a bear market and this particular period we are entering will be very painful for those who buy and hold expecting the optimistic analysis du jour of untold riches to come true.

      As has been the case since 2011, the big money is still going to be made on the short side.

      1. KHT

        Ped, I`m not exactly sure what chart you are using to refer a “one day event” that is a “meaningless technical event since it could not sustain itself”.

        This chart clearly shows a break out and successful back test of my adjusted green resistanance line which I belive to be the valid one. Even the original shows a montly break ou of the down trend line from 2011. The chart is 4 days away from being complete for the Month of Augsut.

        https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_7a911d561f8345f2b2077bbbe2c43ce3.png

        The weekly supports the magor reversal.

        https://tvc-invdn-com.akamaized.net/data/tvc_9678991821ec8e5ca5f3459b112c4571.png

        Anything can happen but I would hardly consider these formations insignificant over shoots.

        1. Pedestrian

          One day event means “flash in the pan” in the translation. Kind of a figure of speech.

          Let’s wait and see how that August bar on the monthly chart looks once we get the close on the 31st. I think you are going to see its just a reversal candle when all is said and done.

          It has not impressed me much so far although I will tell you my charts allow for a further rise in gold from where we are before the turn down. I have discounted the idea though and don’t bother mentioning it since everyone here gets all uppity and insulted when you have both higher and lower targets.

          So I will stick to my bear case.

          Meanwhile, do yourself a favour and read some other gold blogs. There is nearly a consensus out there that gold is going higher from here. Much higher depending on who you read. The only debate (when it even exists) is over the question of how much of a decline gold will see first before taking off into its long awaited bull market.

          Well I can tell you one thing that is a truism in the markets. When you get everyone positioning on the same side of the boat they all end up getting wet. And that’s exactly what is going to happen in this case as gold analysis seems to have given way to group-think and the commentary we read lately is self-supportive of every other bullish point of view such that nobody is even thinking anymore.

          1. Sassybabe

            Pedestrian. Your words make a lot of sense and I want to play the coming fall in gold but don’t want to take a chance on leveraged funds. I found and inverse ETF for the gold miners. It’s symbol is MELT. Do you think that would do well when the miners fall with gold?
            Also, are you expecting this fall to begin relatively soon or has it already started perhaps? TY.

          2. Pedestrian

            Yes Sassy, if there will be a fall it will have to get underway before month end in order to make a difference to how the monthly closing on the chart looks. I think we will get action Monday. If it does not go as expected then I will have to reassess.

            I don’t know that ticker MELT and have never used it. I did look though and noticed its pretty thinly traded so personally I would probably never use it. Here are some others you can check that are more popular names and less likely to be closed due to lack of interest. Maybe a 2X would suit you better.

            Best to stay away from the 3X’s though if you have not played them before and are not familiar with how they work. They are mostly for gamblers and sharpshooters but the truth is the vast majority of people who day-trade lose money so keep that in mind.

            I read part of an interesting study on day trader investing last year that claimed women were far more successful than men at this kind of thing. They prefer smaller consistent wins over those risky big kills. Seems women know when to take a profit, get out and live to trade another day but the boys are always pushing for the big wins and the bragging rights.

            You really need to know yourself well when you go down this road.

            http://etfdb.com/themes/inverse-short-gold-etfs/#complete-list__technicals&sort_name=assets_under_management&sort_order=desc&page=1

          3. Pedestrian

            As an aside Sassy, there is a healthy debate going on tonight over at one of my favourite sites about the fate of the dollar and gold. Lots of great charts and analysis. Some of it completely at odds with what I have written (eg..bullish).

            You might want to have a look and see the alternative viewpoints (there are quite a few right now). I have taken a fairly inflexible position but that’s just my nature however its sometimes advisable to listen to both sides of a debate before making a final decision. Plus it gives you a good sense of how some of the really bright minds are approaching the subject in a different way than me. They have persuaded me more than a few times when they put forward good arguments.

            And they have awesome charts and don’t make you draw your own support and resistance lines!
            https://goldtadise.com/

      2. Gary Post author

        It’s been my experience over the years that chart patterns are one of the least effective strategies to make money in this business. They often morph as time progresses. The top at 1275 of course turned into a top at 1307. The double bottom in the dollar turned into another failed daily cycle. And on and on.

        If it was as easy as purchasing some charting software then everyone would be a millionaire.

        Sadly there is no system ever invented that makes money 100% of the time. Most newsletter writers will give you both sides of the trade so no matter what happens they can claim victory. Almost none of them will ever run a real time portfolio.

        This is the purpose of the challenge. Real time trades, real time percentages.

        Until you enter the challenge and actually make real time calls it’s all meaningless blather. And don’t give me the nonsense about being a day trader. For the purposes of the challenge you can hold a trade overnight.

        1. Pedestrian

          Knock off the nonsense Gary. There is clearly a big difference between forecasting and trading. You won’t be getting my trades sent to your mailbox each day either. And under no circumstance am I going to start emailing you. You have my forecast up above and that’s all you are getting for free.

          The contest is optional. I already told you I am not participating.

          1. spectrum2105

            The only thing that matters is results, not just sounding smart. Your posted trades will show how smart you actually are, talk is just air and sound.

  11. Steffmeister

    Looking at the bigger picture, yes!

    The US is fighting to keep the empire going, but it is getting tougher. That is why Trump was elected. From history we’ve seen several moves to confiscate resources from other places, just like Rome once did. In most recent time the Bushes middle east wars, followed later by Mr Obama.

    Obama started with a national debt at 9-10trillion, now we/you are at 20trillion. Obama had no choice and Mr Trumpet will soon experience that he has no other choice than to try to keep the debt ball rolling. That means the US national debt will reach 40trillion in 7years from now, we are in an exponential growth of debt and that is very bearish for the dollar.

    Meanwhile China and Russia is just sitting back and observing the crash in slow motion. The’ve already suffered from very tough times and do not need a war to confiscate resources.

    I wrote this on another blog a couple of days ago:
    (Solar God=The Deep State, The Banksters, The Elite that got no skin in the game)

    Swedens “greatest” military exercise in several decades with troops from the US, UK, France, Germany, Baltic countries, Finland and Norway. Called Aurora the roman Goddess that leads the Sun God through dawn looking at east. The symbolism is crystal clear. On the news yesterday, Swedish Television, a big red giant in the East a “fictive” enemy called A-land attacking a smaller green country called B-land. If riots occur in Sweden it has been executed and planned by Russia, oh sorry A-land. of course this major event is starting up at the 11th of September :-O

    Edit:
    Soldier, Sol-die-r, a person who buys into the agenda of the “Solar God” who sacrificed his own life on the battle field, just as a blood sacrifice from the old testament.

  12. zkotpen

    KHT’s charts show a huge caveat about drawing lines on charts. They are all over the place, practically at random. Which, if any, is more meaningful than the others, in terms of predictive value?

    Reminds me of that goofy medieval site, Precious Metals Forecast — that’s the guy behind the curtain on the Wizard of Oz, pulling levers and turning dials and such, as if it meant something.

    Or that monstrous piece of nonsense, Mack Dee (MACD). What a load of crap!

    One thing that did catch my attention, however. I used to visit GoldTAdise.com, from around mid-2015 to mid-2016. From all those charts with all those lines and conceptual rigamarole, a veritable medieval hodge podge, I found one indicator that was adjusted in a unique way that had predictive value. Once I realized that site had nothing more to offer in terms of predictive value, I stopped wasting my time there. I still use that indicator — and I only put the bare bones minimum technical indicators on my charts. Funny thing is, I don’t think the person who put the indicator on their chart could see the real value in it. But then again, the rest of their chart set up was not congruent with the settings on that indicator. It was like, they set up the chart just like everybody else, and tweaked one setting on one indicator. If they could recognize what they had done, they’d have completely overhauled their charts, and tossed out all of the dross. But they dared not be different. Tant pis pour eux! (for my bilingual copains Canadiens out there πŸ˜‰ )

    Therein lies the problem of all the flotsam and jetsam on charts — you run the risk of not being able to see something of value when it appears.

    1. Pedestrian

      We will have to disagree on Goldtadise Zkot. There are a few superb chartists living over there whose work I genuinely appreciate because they keep an open mind. Some guys do the usual bull-bull-bull angle but just ignore them if that’s not your bent and keep in mind it is not one person but rather a community of people who contribute. Its just like all mining Zkot. You need to hunt for the gems.

      1. zkotpen

        Indeed… and I certainly found one over there last year!

        Medieval thinking isn’t all bad. But no way on earth it gets us to our computer screens. It can’t take us humans out of the food chain. Only science could do that. Newton was not evolutionary, he was revolutionary, and that is something that most Earthly human types take for granted every second of every day. Even science is full of caveats and it is faith-based. Still, I didn’t die when I got “side sickness” in August, 2012. Or at birth, for that matter. Only science could make that possible. I don’t take anything for granted. I’m grateful to Socrates, for drinking the hemlock instead of caving in to massive social pressure (Agree with us or die, they screamed in mindless unison!). I don’t think too many Westerners, or Western-ized (like me) so much as think of the debt of gratitude they owe that dude for thinking outside of generally accepted beliefs!

    1. Gary Post author

      The commercial longs are also modestly high. One has to look at more than just one number. This is why I track the Blees rating. It gives you the larger picture.

      At the moment the Blees rating on gold is neutral at 45. Silver is even modestly bullish at 65. If the Blees rating goes below 10 then it’s time to look for a top…but not always. During the baby bull many analysts tried to call a top based on the heavy short position.

      I knew better. I had seen this before. During the transition from bull to bear or bear to bull the commercials can remain on the wrong side of the market for a long time.

      I think this is likely what is going on with the dollar contracts. The commercials are slow to recognize that the dollar is starting a bear market.

  13. Goild

    Zkot,

    Most likely Socrates was a nuisance. He would go, visit people, and tell them the true.
    How unpleasant guy.

    He corrupted the young.
    He went against the gods.
    And I forgot the third one.

  14. dboz

    Oil will run big this week. 25% of Gulf capacity is offline. Should have bought UGA Friday. I did not.

    I still hold some GUSH. I expect UWT to open up big tonight.

    1. dboz

      Check out the UGA volume the last two days and the breakout. It won’t last but should be easy money trading that one off the news. LOL, if it’s ever easy.

  15. zkotpen

    Goild

    All valid points from a populist point of view.

    But he sent the West forward 1000 years in a moment, and that has made Western Civilization the big goldfish in the Earth pond.

    “Corrupt youth” is a vague term. It can mean something like debauchery. I have a friend I met in Mexico — used to call him “el corruptor”. I think he had at least one girlfriend stashed away in every Mexican town.

    Then there’s also the Socrates side, which is saying, “OK, now that you’ve learned to repeat the script taught to you by mommy-daddy, tribe, school, country, and everybody else, now that you’ve learned to take everything in life for granted, throw it all in the trash and begin to actually live in the moment, and not in the script you’ve been taught to repeat!”

  16. zkotpen

    Goild,

    I’ve been meaning to ask you for a while, have you documented any results of your populist approach to trading?

    Obviously not my cup of coffee (I don’t particularly like tea).

    But it would be interesting if you kept a record of it along with narrative journal.

    1. Bluebellkid

      One stock market on the move is Brazil’s. The Bovespa is up 18% this year and going into Friday’s session was at the index’s highest mark since January 2011.

      1. jacob2

        Thanks, personally Persistently early. Hold many emerging market stocks for years as I bought into the global growth theme very early plus like the great demographics… got kids. Some still flat but many 2/3xr’s: JD, TCEHY, BABA, CO, BZUN, MMYT mostly Asia stuff.

        Brazil, Bought NETS friday a Brazilian failed IPO and online sport shoe co. A vulture.

  17. zkotpen

    Gary,

    Good points. It will be interesting to see how it all shakes out once the Yearly cycles reverse in the currencies. Again, just as cable put in its YCL two months before the rest of the pack, so, too, does the August peak in GBPUSD look like a Yearly cycle high. And as a reminder, I consider gold as currency.

    I’m kinda thinking that the 2017 rally was just wave B of the move down from 2016 — a bull trap. And then that would make the move down into the next YCL the killer wave C of the bear trap. Roast bull for breakfast; smoked bear for supper πŸ˜‰

    Such a scenario would make this consolidation rally drag on for several more years. And my thinking is, after the blow-off top in 2011, long term volatility needs to contract, so price of gold is not likely to get out of line, on a long term basis (at degrees greater than the yearly cycle)

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt this consolidation drags out anywhere near as long as you think.

      I think the dollar is already in trouble. It’s at risk of confirming a left translated 3 year cycle. By the time the next 3 YCL comes due the dollar should be in real trouble. That is the driver to push the next series of bubbles. Bitcoin is already well into it’s vertictal phase. Stocks should enter their vertical phase once this ICL is complete. And gold should give us the third bubble either in 2019 or 2020.

      Just basic common sense. There has to be consequences from printing trillions of dollars. The consequences have been held off for awhile as all countries jumped onto the QE band wagon. That kept the dollar from crashing during QE but the forces of nature can only be held back for so long. At some point the piper has to be paid.

  18. Pedestrian

    Just saw this news a few minutes ago:

    Miles Franklin has terminated Andy Hoffman last Wednesday because his views no longer represented the company. So Andy is on his own. Not that it will hurt him at all. He is his own person and can easily start his own gold site now as he had thousands of followers. I am sure we have not heard the last of him. Something tells me he got under the skin of some people though with all his ranting and accusations of gold conspiracy and manipulation. But as an official company mouthpiece he was silenced.
    https://www.milesfranklin.com/important-message-from-david-schectman/

  19. Goild

    Last Friday we had a reasonable large spike in gold.
    That is some degree of volatility.
    Earlier in the year, it might have been Surf, who pointed out at some previous very large gold spikes.
    Be aware that the market can wake up after August sleep.
    Shall Gold dive next. then we may have some horrible falling knifes.
    If so the preferred trading mode should be shorting.

    Since December 2015 gold is up more than 20%, quite a substantial gain which copes very well with any inflation. Do not forget that gold has been in a channel around $1220 since 2013.
    We are near to the channel top and thus Gold can dive.
    Maybe once more as Pedestrian has suggested.
    Perhaps we will see a master undercut before titan rockets take Gold to the Moon.

  20. Goild

    Zkot,

    I have a number of notes about mistakes in trading, insights, JNUG charts, suggestions to improve my trading,. and about my main trading problems. Not really in any order.

    Uncertainty in trading scares the hell of most people. Uncertainty is horrifying and most people avoid it.
    But every thing has a dual aspect and the dual aspect of uncertainty can be quite enticing. In the market anything can happen, luck helps, unthought possibilities take place.

    I guess we are having a heck of a time trading.

  21. Goild

    Zkot,

    A lot of money is lost in this business because we decide we want it our way.
    Being stubborn, wanting to win in our terms, is the culprit.

    The voice, our Guardian angel, if we listen is always there protecting us.
    We need to listen more often and follow the advice.

    1. zkotpen

      Indeed my friend… finally dove in to the test at the end of Trading in the Zone… not on some arbitrary schedule, not prematurely (had to fight the urge), but when the voice said it was OK. Funny how that corresponded to Week 1 of year 6 for me as a trader — as you said once before, putting behind the beginner’s stage where I threw caution to the wind, had no exit strategy, and my edge was downright silly. Had to hand that baton to another beginner, along with the caveat that they make not those same mistakes.

      Even the audiobook, Trading in the Zone came to me via Guardian angel, on Magick Day: December 1 (of last year, as it were. My earliest recollection of memory used to be December 1 — 3 weeks before I was born! I’ve had earlier memories since that time).

      Anyhow, I was looking at the newsreel on MarketWatch.com and saw a link to an article about superstar trader, the late Dick Diamond. Read the article. Looked for Diamond’s book on Amazon — no audio version available. Amazon included “Trading in the Zone” as something I might like — Angel said, “click on this one!” So I did. Listened to the audio sample. Yep, that’s for me! No shopping, no looking around… I was led right to precisely what I needed.

      When I was a child, I used to hold all adults hostage. Meaning, if you came by for a visit, I put a book in your hands, and encouraged you to read it to me over and over. Til I learned to read myself which, of course, wastes eyeball energy. Now you can have the pros do the reading for you!

      At any rate, your comment is immensely insightful. The new week is already off to a great start! Cheers πŸ™‚

  22. Sassybabe

    My god Zkotpen, what are you doing on a financial blog site? Making known your rambling thoughts offer little value for investors and frankly, don’t make much sense. Sorry, but I tried to find worth in your words but it has been a futile effort. Perhaps you could try talking in plain language like Pedestrian, as an example.
    Please forgive me but I will be skipping over your posts henceforth.

  23. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “I guess we are having a heck of a time trading.”

    Gold and USDJPY have been gnarly all year. EURUSD and, to a lesser extent, GBPUSD have been far more regular. The former went up significantly and regularly, Jan-July; the latter went down substantially the first 3 weeks of August.

  24. zkotpen

    Sassybabe,

    I have never owned a smartphone in my life. (though I do plan to get one).

    But here’s one for you, regarding any position you take in markets:

    1. How much of your portfolio is at risk?

    2. What is your exit strategy?

    3. How did you come up with your probabilities?

    1. zkotpen

      PS: I just read your question to Pedestrian above.

      Do not put a penny at risk until you’ve answered the 3 questions correctly!

      To do so would be ill-advised.

  25. MegaMind

    Miners are getting ready to rally hard looks like…but first a quick dip…
    Stock markets unfortunately are going into bear market for the foreseeable future…

    1. Cardio2

      Stock market going into a bear market? Where do you come up with such garbage? At most the market will pull back to around 2400 then go on to new highs.

      1. Gary Post author

        The perma bears are still stuck in 2009. They will keep calling for a crash forever… and they will miss the bubble phase of the bull market.

        I just never understand these nitwits that are always seeing topping signs. No matter how high price goes it always looks “toppy” to these clowns.

        Central banks have printed trillions and trillions of currency units. These markets will top but only after they produce what is likely to be one of the largest bubbles the world has ever seen.

  26. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “I think the dollar is already in trouble. It’s at risk of confirming a left translated 3 year cycle. By the time the next 3 YCL comes due the dollar should be in real trouble.”

    I’m on board with the left translated”3 year cycle idea, and have been since Feb 1, 2016.

    What is in contention here is:

    1. The nature of that 3 year cycle — more sideways, or down, for the dollar? and

    2. The cycle one degree higher than 3 year — bull or bear?

    For the time being, I’m more focused on the former, and really even more so on what’s going on at yearly cycle degree:

    Has GBPUSD reached its YCH? (I think so — watching closely for that — I could be wrong)

    When do the others — Euro, Yen, and Gold — reach their YCHs, and what do they look like? Euro looking strong; Yen/gold looking rather wobbly, like they really want to get this yearly rally over with already.

    Now that I’ve got my ideas on the big currencies — including gold — ironed out, I do not want to get stuck in some churning market like gold and USDJPY has been most of the year. Miners even worse. If I have a take on who’s going down hardest — crosspairs also in consideration — I want to board that train. It could be a combo of USDJPY/GDX, or it could be GBPUSD, or something else.

    For most of 2017, working with USDJPY, Gold, and GDX has been great exercise in market analysis, but in terms of making money, it has been highly inefficient and risky — as you yourself have pointed out, in your own words, on several occasions.

    1. jacob2

      Thanks for the link. A very good middle of the road piece and review of some basic old school and unleveraged investment strategies. SHare his cautiously optimistic market forecast and overweight foreign stock bias.

  27. Goild

    Copper may still jump some more along with gold and silver stocks.
    And it is also getting ready for a scalping short.
    Going long there is JJC.
    Which other copper ETF’s are out there?
    They should have a good volume.
    Does any one know?

  28. Steffmeister

    Wohoo, the illusive 1300 resistance broken πŸ™‚

    So how far will gold go, 1375, 1450 … 1550 ?

    Is the path forward already choosen by TPTB? Inflation or Deflation, I don’t know … yet

  29. Nada

    GM all. Looking good. 1306 and 1316 still on track. With the dollar action, most likely take 50% at 1306 and 25% at 1316 and let the remaining 25% ride for 1330 target. spot gold references.

  30. Gary Post author

    Folks pay attention to the videos. The dollar is doing what I predicted it would do. We got confirmation on Friday. I laid out the expected timing band for the current daily cycle in the dollar to bottom and a possible timing band for the larger intermediate cycle to bottom.

    Why would you pay any attention to the perma bears? The market is doing what I expected it to do. Why would gold go back down until after the dollar bottoms?

    The miners are holding the breakout from the long triangle consolidation. Why would you try to pick a top from that kind of breakout when they’ve done nothing wrong so far?

    I’ll say it again. Gold has started a new intermediate cycle. We are still in the advancing phase of that intermediate cycle. During the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle the strategy is to buy dips… or just hang onto long positions.

    This is why almost no one has any chance of riding JNUG to $500. You will always find ways to miss the rallies when they happen.

    1. AT

      Gary, I guess that would apply to you as well. What long term trades did you hold, other than the ERX?

      1. Gary Post author

        That one is easy. I held the baby bull trade almost to the exact top.Unfortunately I held a little too long πŸ™‚

        I’m holding the current metals position until I think the IC has topped. Possibly in October.

        I’ll hold stocks until I think the bubble is finished. Cycles can break down during the vertical phase of a bubble so it’s not safe to be out.

    2. zbigkid

      My JNUG (short for JuggerNAUT) position is doing fine Gary. I just don’t sweat any of the moves like others do here on this board. The folks who shorted GDX, or went long DUST this am, must be feeling some pain.

      The primary reason I follow this board is to use it as a contrarian sentiment guide, and add some to my JNUG position when it looks like most of the board is taking the opposite position on direction.

  31. Goild

    Good morning,

    Got 1K JNUG shares at $19.3 With gold at ~+0.4% and JNUG only +%1.5 things smell fishy.
    This can be the usual Monday bull trap.
    We shall see.
    Let us make money today.

    1. Nada

      You have been saying bull trap for over two weeks, eventually you will be correct – but not today.

  32. Goild

    The market and all securities change mood very often. And so is the traders mood.
    It is a fact of the business. No trader is exempt. And it is wise.

  33. Steffmeister

    I’ve been the most consistent caller here Gary, I was the one how presented the H&S dollar chart that made you change the course.

    I bought JNUG at the 7th of July and after that I shouted aboiut the market to TURN TURN TURN (or I will get drunk on moonshine)

    It’s about time that you give me some credit here Gary πŸ™‚ Ive been bullish since summer solstice!

    And hey I tought you about the full moon/new moon cycle! Is it still working when we arrive at the 6th of September?Β΄

    For all to remember Geopolitical Violence is skyhigh for most of September, especially at the end …

      1. Steffmeister

        That was one insecure post Gary, how is your “easy” money in the stockmarket entering the bubble phase move going πŸ˜›

        1. Gary Post author

          Stocks entered the bubble phase on election night. Now we are just waiting for this correction to finish. Once it does I think stocks will enter the vertical phase.

          Most people like you will never have the patience to wait for it and will never be able to ride the bubble phase.

          You are a classic example of the retail trader always bailing at bottoms and never riding moves for very long.

          At every ICL when I’m telling people to get long there are always hundreds of people like you telling me I’m wrong.

          1. Nada

            Would love for the hunt to begin for ICL. We broke the 10ema on SPX, but that means little to me. Breaking the bottom trendline would be lovely. I am going HEAVY with itm options when we receive the gift of ICL. It appears sentiment is doing its thing so far this morning using the blog as a reference.

        2. Steffmeister

          Gary missed the top in gold/miners last summer a very easy touch of the major bearish trendline

          Then again he missed the termination in gold during winter solstice

          Then he probably missed that we are not about to touch the bottom of the triangle in gold

          Probably he is about to miss the 20% correction in S&P500 …

    1. Nada

      “Then he probably missed that we are not about to touch the bottom of the triangle in gold.” Are you suggesting that we are going to visit the bottom of triangle in the neat future? The ICL is done and confirmed. The bottom of the triangle is done for now. I am not sure if that is what you were saying?

      Also, why are you deciding to pick a fight the blog owner? Gary doesn’t seem one for censorship, so are you sure he pulled you post?

  34. Steffmeister

    Gary Post author

    August 28, 2017 at 7:14 am

    Because you aren’t man enough to enter the challenge….

    /Ok if that’s what you think, fine by me!

  35. JJHarmen

    Yesterday, Pedestrian was making a lot of noise about how gold was going down. Not a peep yet today. Maybe he is too busy reading his charts and putting in orders to short.

  36. Jimsee

    JJ – indeed. it’s all them rabid gold bugs, man, never mind the literal incessant drone of “WHY ARE YOU NOT A REAL ESTATE INVESTOR?” commercials. If that’s not a top, we are truly in another whirld.

  37. dboz

    Stopped out of GUSH. I am done trying with energy. I was up very nicely in GUSH over the last week. Gave it all back this AM to get stopped out even. Did not want to do that but was working and just missed the morning increase to move my stop up.

    UGAZ was amazing today also. Dropped down to 11 and then shot up over 12. Staying clear. Oil beat down bad here also.

  38. Lenapowich

    I am pleased to see GDXJ up nicely this AM. I think I will buy more if it pulls back a bit. The gold haters are getting their butts kicked!

  39. Nada

    For those predicting beat trap on Friday and this morning, don’t look now but gold is breaking out. My target of 1306 is about 1 point away. 1316 second target.

    1. Nada

      DUST holders must be questioning this price action. Cycle top should be close though, but it could still continue to 1320ish in xauusd.

    2. Christian

      That’s the problem though — EVERY RETAIL TRADER and their grandma buys at breakout and that’s generally when the Market decides to turn.

      That being said.. the dollar is screwing up the cycle big time but regardless, we’ll get a pull-back and a re-test of SUPPORT, which means one can always switch gears and go long.

  40. bluelagoon

    I still believe GUSH is very close if not at the bottom now. Longer term charts seem to suggest that. I had a target buy at $15.80 this AM – it went even further than that to 15.43.

  41. Gary Post author

    Again, I gave everyone the strategy. Gold has completed an ICL. The dollar has signaled another failed daily cycle with many days yet before a bottom.

    Why would anyone listen to the perma bears in this scenario?

    You have to be long right now and quit worrying about a short term correction. It has the potential to make you miss the rally.

    Like I said almost no one will be able to ride JNUG to $500 because almost everyone finds a way to miss rallies in a bull market.

    1. theworldwithoutfacebook

      Nice work on Gold Gary. I have JNUG, not as much as I’d like tho. Going to sell some if gold gets to 1320 and buy back on the retest.

  42. WYSIWYGN

    The miners I have are hardly moving. JNUG however is up almost 10%. How does JNUG relate to the miners?

    1. Nada

      Hardly moving? DUST is getting slammed. The averaging down “play” is being shown how it can be quite dangerous.

  43. Bigdaddy

    Good morning friends! Just like i predicted, silver (gold also), are rocketing up. Recall that I bought 1000 USLV at 12.43 last week. Another winner! What’s next you ask? More upside for the metals and a big fall coming in the stock market. Stay tuned.

    1. JJHarmen

      Congrats on a nice USLV play BD! I bought some SQQQ last week so I hope you are right about the markets taking a dive.

  44. Bigdaddy

    The only thorn in my side is that goddamned Facebook short. I was a profitable position and then they drove it back up this morning. Everybody i know says they hardly ever look at FB anymore because it is so cluttered with junk. One the old farts running corporate America are going to realize that FB is a waste of their advertising dollars and the SHTF.

  45. Spanky

    Nice to see gold over 1300. You won’t see any hootin and hollerin from me until the next dcl though. I am long miners but skeptical of further upside from here–so hopefully I am wrong and they rocket a lot higher before topping.

    1. Nada

      Yes its a very hard read. As Christian pointed out, the dollar cycle has stretched gold and where it stops, who knows. I sold 20% of position at 1306 in xauusd. I will sell another 20% at 1316. The stretched cycle and potential SM ICL is making me re-thinking my plan.

  46. Bigdaddy

    There were a lot of dumb shits posting over the weekend yapping about gold going down and trying to sound smart with their horseshit technical mumbo jumbo. Dunce hats will be awarded later. I have some reading to do. Stay tuned.

    1. Christian

      Same β€” bought more DUST @23.15 to offset my current loss. The 15 min chart is overextended.

  47. JJHarmen

    Christian, DUST was down on Friday, has been plunging right from the opening bell, and you say you managed to “break even”? What kind of magic is that?

        1. Christian

          You’re basically insinuating that I’m full of beans which I find extremely frustrating considering I post all of my trades in my real time β€” Thx Nada

          1. Nada

            Not at all. Didn’t you watch my Seinfeld video? It’s a compliment. I have no reason to doubt your trades, as you have been upfront on your entries. I even posted that I thought your analysis of DUST was a good choice when relating to cycles – when someone questioned why you would be taking DUST.

            Trust me, I got caught with my pants down in DUST in Gary’s contest. I thought the DCL was coming up too, so I decided to hold and wait it out instead of taking small loss. I didn’t do that with real money though, I went long because the dollar would not bounce. I am closing out long positions slowly now, but I would continue to do just as you are doing with DUST. I think we run to 1316 in xauusd, so why I was saying wait there before adding.

          2. Christian

            Nada β€” ma bad, perhaps I misread your comment. Shit is always getting lost in translation on this blog (and every other blog in the world) Lol!

            What Seinfeld video?? I might’ve missed that post.

  48. Spanky

    Yen’s not even up that much today…

    Was listening to Peter Schiff’s youtube vlog and he said he recently visited Jeff gundlach at his home and that they had a conversation about gold. Apparently, Gundlach thinks that once 1300 is taken down, we could see a very rapid rise to 1400 due to all of the pent up energy.

    I would like to believe that 1375 could be hit soon, but I think I will just go with Nada’s call for 1316 as a near term top. I am not trading around the daily cycles or even intermediate cycles though, just going to hold long at least until the HUI sees all time highs again.

  49. Bluebellkid

    The miner ETF’s have all traded about half the 50 day average volume in 2 1/2 hours so that is a good sign the move might have some legs.

    1. Bluebellkid

      You may be right – I’m not buying just yet – been burned too many times on moves like this.

  50. Spanky

    AXU is up 10% today atm. As I have been saying for at least a month or two, the 2010 analogy is playing out so far to a T. Back then it more than tripled in about 5 months.

    1. bluelagoon

      Thinking yes Christian – looks like DUST is bottoming out at least 30min to 4hr for a bounce.

    2. Spanky

      The weekly charts looks like it is just breaking down after a very long and tight consolidation. You would have to be betting on a headfake to breakeven at this point, IMO. Good luck.

  51. Sassybabe

    Hi Pedestrian. I decided just to short GDX this morning rather than use an inverse ETF. I shorted 300 shares at 24.08. I sure hope you know what you are talking about.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Sassy, you must be brain dead to think Pedo is a guy to follow. I told you to do the opposite of what that idiot says if you want to make money. Do yourself a favor and read ALL his posts of 2017. The older posts are available on the right side of Gary’s website. I am trying to help you before Pedo costs you money. trust me.

  52. dboz

    Seriously doubt we see any more metal upside today. Going to take a few days to consolidate. That said, if this was just a short squeeze, be ready for the rug pull. Bull trap?

  53. MegaMind

    Dollar has further to fall so miners could go up another few percentage points… GDX 21.50 is firming up as solid support…

    1. dboz

      Yes, but that is still a good % move down to test that level. Hard to say, we could be rocketing off here. I just don’t know.

  54. Goild

    I do not like my trading.
    I made $1755 but shorting rather than going long.
    When I am going to learn?

  55. dboz

    BUGS seem very over exuberant here. Not going to chase this……YET. I am going to wait it for another day or two. Seems too easy to launch from here. I think we have seen this before late in the cycle. Big up move, sucks in all the FOMO money, then the rug pull. Time will tell. Still have a lot of room left to get on board if we do move up.

    1. Spanky

      What bugs? Two or three people on this board? Most people have left the miners for dead. Certainly almost no one thinks they are about to rocket higher from here.

      1. Nada

        For sure. Everyone was bailing – myself included. I was long GDXJ Nov 40 calls, but sold one batch for profit and the rest for b/e. I wish I would have kept them, but I prefer the action of GLD options.

    1. Spanky

      The stochastics have not even reached oversold on this chart yet, so more downside for the ratio (which means the miners should be going higher in absolute terms).

  56. Bigdaddy

    I wish i had not sold my HGU. Another example of selling too soon and not allowing my positions to make me money. Thankfully, I have USLV so i am loving the metals right now.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Thanks Christian. More good calls are in the pipeline. Tough break on ERX and DUST but you are pretty clever so maybe you will salvage something out of those train wrecks.

    1. Christian

      Not so fast Spanky β€” yes, the cycle is getting stretched but we will eventually get a move down into a DCL.

      1. Spanky

        Weekly stochastics are not even oversold yet. I don’t think we will get a bounce until they do reach oversold.

          1. Spanky

            As I ave said, I’m not trading around “technical horseshit.” I’m waiting for the day mining stocks are as hot as Amazon and FB. Then I will start selling. I’ve been long metal bullion since 2001 and long miners on and off since then too.

  57. Christian

    You’re wasting your time Homerj.. Gary is always right! His tombstone will one day read: I told you so πŸ™‚

    1. Christian

      Looks like Homerj’s post was deleted??

      WTF Gary?! You once told that you didn’t have time to Police your own blog but you certainly will make the time when it suits you :/

        1. Bigdaddy

          Good riddance to Homerj, he was always on my case but i am sure glad i didn’t learn know how to make the bold print.

  58. Gary Post author

    I have no problem with anyone disagreeing with me. Ped disagrees with me most of the time.

    I will not however allow trolls to stay on the blog.

    1. Nada

      Was it homerJ or Steffmeister, because I was bragging on you for not censoring. I didn’t see what HomerJJ said, so maybe it was warranted.

    2. Gary Post author

      I’m probably going to start eliminating the more crass individuals here as well.

      Too many people here acting like children.

      Just make your point and be done with it.

    3. JJHarmen

      Gary, is that why some others have disappeared ? Mustang Sally, Don in particular. Did you ban them by chance?

      1. Gary Post author

        They have not been banned.

        I think we all know Sally and Ped are the same person. I suspect he just got tired of trying to manage two personalities.

  59. Bigdaddy

    Gary has told you guys a hundred times that charts lie all the time and from the looks of how the technical guys were reading gold here on this blog, he’s absolutely correct. Gut feelings work better for me. My guy feeling is that the SM is due for a big dive. Also, sliver/ gold are going to catch everyone off guard as they blast off higher yet.

      1. Gary Post author

        I wouldn’t try to pick a short term target for gold until the dollar gets into the timing band for the next DCL, and that’s still potentially 2-3 weeks away.

      2. Nada

        Fib pivots. I am being cautious with these levels and why I am only leaving 20% running if/after 1316 is reached. Gary has a valid point, and what if Friday was a HCL. I dunno, its difficult read.

  60. Gary Post author

    Stocks and gold don’t have to trade inversely to each other. For most of the last 17 years they went up together. A weaker dollar should drive all assets prices higher.

    I’ll say again that my expectation is that the dollar has entered a bear market. This will drive at least three bubbles. Bitcoin is already well into its bubble phase.

    Stocks will move into the vertical phase of their bubble once this correction has run its course.

    Gold in the meantime is in the process of completing its basing phase and is ready to start moving higher. It should move higher along with stocks and then once the stock bubble pops gold will begin its bubble phase. This should correspond with the currency crisis in the dollar, maybe in 2019-2020.

      1. Gary Post author

        Charts are nothing more than a record of past history. So how can I see the future from history?

        Haven’t we seen enough abject failures of charts to predict anything by now?

    1. Cardio2

      Gold looking good. Not sure how people are coming up with 1316 as resistances to sell. I would think it is smarter to just hold as good luck timing every little pullback and then trying to jump in.

      1. Nada

        Its not people. It’s a singular. It is a target I presented 2 weeks ago utilizing fib pivots. I think it runs higher than 1316, but I am only leaving 20% to chance after initial target is reached. The real opportunity comes at the DCL. With that said, was it a DCL Friday or a HCL or just a dip?! With the dollar in free fall who the hell knows. Probably best to leave some skin in the game because I know after I sell my final position I will be crying.

  61. Nada

    Anyone have any insight on oil? Its tempting here, but it looks like it had a failed daily cycle. Gary?

    1. Spanky

      Of course, it could always get filled. I’ve been holding this sucker since it was 80 cents, so I will ride any dips out.

      Never get too excited with miners and never expect to make the perfect entry. You have to be able to stomach a 5-10% drawdown anytime you go long.

      Buy the dips.

    2. Spanky

      As far as I am concerned, the miners have shown their hand. It’s time to sit back and watch if you are long, or just wait to buy the dips.

      1. Gary Post author

        There’s no way I could successfully trade every wiggle in the metals market, but I can just hang on until I think the intermediate cycle is ready to top. That shouldn’t be for another 5-10 weeks yet.

        I’m guessing gold cycle tops in October when the dollar cycle bottoms.

        I’ll let others pad their brokers pockets frantically trading in and out.

        I’m just going to ply Old Turkey for the next month or two.

      1. Gary Post author

        Or getting killed if they listened to Armstrong harp on how the euro was destined to collapse.

          1. Gary Post author

            He often gets the small moves right, but he’s never spoted a major turn yet.

            Socrates is programmed to be a big trend follower. When teh big trend reverses it stays out of synch for a long time before finally recognizing something has changed.

            He failed to spot the top in gold in 2011, He failed to spot the bottom in 2015. He failed to spot the 7 YCL in stocks, and now he’s failed to spot the top in the dollar.

            He’s also on the wrong side of the inflation deflation debate. As long as currencies are fiat there can never be any real deflation unless a government decides to allow it. Look at how quickly Bernanke stopped deflation with QE1.

          2. dboz

            One thing I have learned is that GOVERNMENTS CANNOT function in a deflationary environment, so in that regard, I don’t think it will happen again like in the 20’s-30’s. They will just print money or give tax cuts or free money or whatever it takes. Deflation means there is no income to the government. Of course, they spend way more anyway so does not matter anymore.

  62. Bigdaddy

    Pedo and MS are probably both on their knees right now praying for gold to go down so they won’t look so stupid.

    1. Lenapowich

      LOL! He will be telling us how he seen the breakout in gold all along and that when it has peaked, he will be shorting it. Anyways, that’s what he has been saying for weeks.

  63. Goild

    Nada,
    As you recall I bought 1K JNUG shares in the pre-session. I sold, bought and so for to make $600 going JNUG long. But then stupidity came in and I shorted JNUG, and NUGT to lose about $3K. Then I used my swing account to further short with JDST. Once more I got lucky, recovered in my cash account, added there $170 and put $1770 in the swing account. Hate my trading, but it is what it is.
    Good trading to all.

    1. Nada

      Glad you made a profit. The terminology used is a bit off. You made it sound as you were shorting metals and made a profit today.

      “I made $1755 but shorting rather than going long.”

      Now you clarify with the fact that you shorted JDST – which is equivalent to being LONG metals. BTW, who is your broker?

  64. Nada

    FYI:

    WSJ delivers again on its BOW report. GLD buying on 8/22 and 8/24 paved the way to profits – follow the money. Invaluable tool to add to your war chest.

  65. Lenapowich

    Bigdaddy, did you get any response from Don via email? I miss his daily commentary so just curious. BTW, you are playing the market like a fiddle. Nice work sweety. Your wife (and the dog, of course) must be pleased.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Yes Lena, he did. Don says he is taking a break from the blog. I know he was heavy into silver so he’s probably got a sore face from smiling with today’s action. He believes that the SM is way over due for a serious correction.

  66. dboz

    Guys, it’s one day. Could have just seen a short squeeze. Let’s see if there is follow through from here. Gary posted a few days ago we are already 33 or so days into the cycle. He said if the dollar tanks it could stretch. The dollar did tank and gold soared. HOWEVER, should the dollar reverse, I would think the extension will be short lived. I am not long the miners so a little FOMO here. BUT, I have seen these types of days before and the next day it’s a 10% reversal. I AM NOT saying that will happen here, but just saying, one day at a time.

    I got whipsawed out of big profits in GUSH today also. Now I can’t get back in. Giving up for now on energy.

    1. dboz

      Won’t be surprised one bit if the dollar makes a huge surge tomorrow and nukes this entire move. It’s impossible right now IMO.

      UUP looks like an underwater beach ball right now.

  67. Strike

    Ped,
    Didn’t notice a post from you today. I am interested in whether you now think this is a false breakout or the real deal (in gold of course).

  68. Goild

    Nada,

    It is fidelity. About $4 per trade.
    I wonder how butch can buy/sell oil/stuff over the weekend.
    What kind of account/broker allows it?

    1. Nada

      Not sure what you mean by over the weekend? He certainly can not trade oil then. Futures open Sunday at 6pm eastern. Maybe he referenced that time period?

    1. Nada

      That does not make sense. How did you make $$ going long JDST?? You timing would have had to be impeccable to catch any type of bounce.

  69. roadrunner

    here is what happened today. Pedestrian and the gold bears, got punched in the gut. Kicked in the personal parts, Steamrolled. Splattered like gnats on a car windshield, They had their teeth smashed to a million pieces. Squashed like cockroach’s. Put through the ringer and hung out to dry.
    Hope all the patient gold/miner longs made some profit today.

  70. Kruzoe

    Great day to be out of the office. Lost $800 on my Dust but shows a paper profit of $7K on my Jnug. I’ll probably sell to-morrow am.

  71. Nada

    Buying on weakness GLD
    8/22 – 185.6m
    8/24 – 121.68

    Still no top in gold. No SOS for GLD. Still big swinging *ick. With that said, the little bounce on SPY was SOLD -568million. Feels good to be LOOONG gold!

  72. Goild

    Nada,

    There was plenty of time between 11:30 and 12:05, in the pull back, to make money on the short side.
    I in fact left on the table half of what I could have done.

  73. zbigkid

    Rate hikes are over. Many signs of recession are there, if you ignore MSM hype. Unfortunately, all those who are expecting some sort of fireworks, or parabolic phase in stocks from here, have missed it. You just saw all that is going to happen since Trump was elected in stocks.

    This market is priced so far beyond perfection, that you are going to continue to see massive outflows continue to weigh on the market. Amazon has been trimmed by 10% in a very short period, and once the marketeers re-program their algo’s, the BTD mentality that we’ve seen since late last year, will become a distant memory.

    The ECB, JCB, FED have run out of ‘sugar bombs’ to drop on markets, and the CB jawboning to keep things propped that has been running nearly every week now since the beginning of summer, has lost its last bit of effect.

    Now that the monkey’s have been sufficiently “Pavlov’d”, it won’t be until the market drops rather significantly that we will see CB’s unleash the final fatal rounds of QE. To their shock, and the market players ‘awe’ each new announcement of QE will have the exact opposite effect, where the markets will drop harder each time a new ‘sugar bomb’ is announced.

    This market has been so utterly and shamelessly warped, that the average American, still actually believes we have an economy, and they’ll be able to keep their minimum wage jobs without any soup lines. Trump makes the perfect foil, for the markets to drop down a lot.

    1. MegaMind

      No More Sugar Bombs….LOL… that lines up with my expectation for a 30-50% drop in stock markets in the next 6months…

    1. MegaMind

      Gold cake is baked… I am expecting a atleast a retest of 1260… very underwater on my JDST on challenge…still holding,.. hopefully I can get out on a bump… will I get a break? we need kim to stop firing missiles…

  74. Jimsee

    gold blowing through 1320 implies 1380 sooner than later…holding uslv and all miners probably all week.

  75. Jimsee

    if ‘they’ are in trouble on comex/lbma they can let it fly to fnd, then rinse all the spec longs that will pile on. know your enemy.

  76. Goild

    Nada,

    Here are the JDST trades for a profit of $1787.01.

    JDST FILLED AT $53.1613 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:12:44 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.9845 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:14:13 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $53.1012 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:15:07 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $53.3301 Market Sell 3000 at Market Day 11:16:54 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.6856 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:26:12 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.5232 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:27:25 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.322 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:28:12 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.0008 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:29:12 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.6021 Market Sell 4000 at Market Day 11:36:38 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.3799 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 11:45:13 AM 08/28/2017
    JDST FILLED AT $52.60 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 11:53:08 AM 08/28/2017

    1. Nada

      Point is, there is no advantage to be had in the range I highlighted on the chart. You are simply playing slots at the casino.

      1. Christian

        Nada — I’ve been telling him this since day one and nothing has changed. It’s part of his personality.

  77. butch

    Triple top break-out today of a 80+dollar trading range. Target 1380. Holding longs until I can find a reason to sell.

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