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Gold showing RESILIENCE while the Buck tries to muster enough strength to stage a come back..! This could get interesting.
It IS interesting already! My GSR-analysis from yesterday was spot on!
When summer doldrums finally ends, watch out!
GSR-analysis or Seasonalities..? Are you trying to take credit for something that’s been pretty consistent for the past ‘oh I dunno’ 40 years+ ?? Lol!
People of the Shire! September has always been one of the best months for Gold and if Gary’s right then that should line up with a potential DCL later this month and a bounce up in precious metals 🙂
You are barking up the wrong tree, look at the bearish club looking at various moving average.
I am the only one here who pointed out the a-b-c pattern in GSR clearly you do not got the basic skills to make that call 😛
and here is more to come, you may wait for the DCL like forever …
Ooooooooooh You’re such a strong man 🙂
no I am not, my driver is only flying 220yards these days haha … compared to Gary I am very weak, just climbing a stool is making me dizzy !
Oh, so Spanky is talking about the 21st? Yeah, I am Ok with that. My time horizon is to catch the high for 2017. I thought Spanky was bearish for the rest of the year.
August 8, 2017 at 12:02 pm
$hui daily chart Ichimoku cloud says not to try a long position until after August 21, if you are feeling lucky.
August 8, 2017 at 1:18 pm
Aug 21. The largest spectator event in the US in the last 100 years. interesting.
This is KEY!
Charts FIRST then NEWS. You look at the chart and the basic wave pattern and you think yo yourself “how on earth is this going to play out” and then the news arrives and supports the wave structure, it’s amazing.
Good call Nada 🙂 I’ve mentioned a big event coming in September … supporting a bullish turn in Gold?
August 8, 2017 at 12:50 pm
Not so fast spanky. Note that at this point , GDX is out performing the market today.
August 8, 2017 at 1:03 pm
Only because of a tweet..
August 8, 2017 at 12:52 pm
Goldbugs saves again by news.
On a side note, looking for a Pedestrian post …
No this is not going to be BIG, on page 103 in the trading Bible “Technical analysis of Stock Trends”
Whatever happens here, its going to be huge.
I’ve been a victim of this pattern myself and I do see this ALOT out there, but it’s false! The further we go into a triangle the weaker the response!
and the last post for a while, getting tired of myself, a good post by Pedestrian, this is also KEY going forward. Where is the money coming from?
August 8, 2017 at 7:21 pm
Oh shit, the Nikkei cracked its support line, the VIX popped and Yen rose taking gold up a few bucks. It’s always about Japan it seems. Maybe Kim Kong threatening to shoot missiles across the Sea of Japan will be what alters the course of gold after all
Yepp NIKKEI is the feeder of precious metal stocks. Sayonara NIKKEI …
This might surprise you Steff, but so far gold is behaving just as expected (so far anyway at this early hour of the morning). What I have been looking for is a second chance to get short based on a pattern set-up where gold effectively double-tops. Specifically, the second top should come in lower than the first and I did have a 1275 target number on it that I posted two days ago. Well this morning gold peaked at precisely 1275 and should that hold tight my plan to go short again goes into effect.
August 8, 2017 at 3:06 am
Looks like gold will bounce back up and probably double top before its next ride down. Another chance to get short near the highs is approaching. You can see it best on an hourly chart. I am looking for a lower-high naturally so a top not exceeding 1275 should be about right.
Gold will probably make a triple top at 1300 and then trigger another whipsaw back down into its daily cycle low.
I hope not Gary because that will mess with my strategy. So far everything is setting up nicely.
What is your time horizon Ped, 2 weeks? I am looking for a doozie, a rally top to 1462. What could cause such a rally, I do not have a clue …
I am not interested in the daily flip flopping.
Oh sorry Steff, on the trading side of things I am strictly short term since that’s where I do best. The number 1462 is out of the question for now though. We are going down in gold/silver before we come back up for air. I could be wrong of course. Maybe Kim Kong starts WWIII, stocks crash and gold soars. But I don’t think so the way the charts look right now.
Looks like my 1275 number did not hold by morning. Last trading at 1281.20 before the bell with Nikkei futures dropping fairly hard, VIX spiking and European markets dropping. Looks like little Kimmy has the power to suppress the dollar and push gold up. If Trump really wants to depress the dollar it seems to pay to rattle sabres in the direction of North Korea and keep the rhetoric high. I doubt that the current situation will be cooling off anytime soon either. Maybe we are going to have to add geopolitics and rumours of war back into projections for the price of gold. God forbid they actually start a war with one another but who in hell knows if thats what it takes to depress USD.
Until you wake up and realize that gold is in a new bull market you will keep getting these calls wrong.
It’s been almost two years now. How many more years will it take?
Gary, we have been over this a hundred times. Gold has not established a new bull market yet and that is proven by the charts. Your analysis on this topic is entirely subjective. If in retrospect we know that gold really found a final bottom at 1040 still won’t make you correct on the call because your commentary is just bluster and badgering, not facts.
Looks like gold bottomed on the full moon like I suggested last week.
Stocks may try to drop into a mild DCL here helping to push gold up against a weak bounce in the dollar.
I think everything I’ve been looking for plays out.
Gold has completed its ICL but we aren’t done with the whipsawing. Its still going to be a difficult market.
If stocks are allowed to correct for a few days be prepared to buy the dip because they will be back making new highs by Jackson hole.
And oil has completed its yearly cycle low. Its going to make it to at least $60 during this intermediate cycle, but like gold its going to be a slow difficult grind higher that could take another 8-10 weeks to get there.
The bounce in the dollar will just be a dead cat bounce and it will turn back down pretty quickly and slice through the 200 week moving average just like it did during the last two bear markets.
The easy money is in the stock market. The difficult money is in the commodity markets. This will eventually reverse but the bubble in stocks has to finish and pop before a lot of institutional money is prepared to flow back into the commodity markets.
Talking about the full moon, the main moon event this month is the total solar eclipse at the 21st. A DCL for gold at or around the 22nd isn’t out of the question, that would be your buy signal.
Come on now Gary, you said you don’t believe in that werewolf sulf:)
NIKKEI has a multi year double top, looking mighty bearish! There is a super strong sharp declining resistance line for NIKKEI on a monthly chart of which NIKKEI will follow for quite some time.
I thought you had “outgrown” the blog? Ahh, i see.. Gold is being bullish at the moment, so time to head back to the site and tell everyone you had the right outlook.. fair enough!
muhahaha the bears will be back, I have a feeling they are busy adding to their shorts.
Yes I know, I’ve never said that I am not a selfcentered a$$hole sometimes, like a few others here.
outgrown is the wrong word more like a chicken among seagulls 🙂
yes a bullish move this week to unload some and then buying the next would fit my agenda nicely.
There is a Swedish miner called Auriant Mining, the mine is in Russia. However the Market Cap is LESS than last year net profit. They are performing as we call it in Sweden a New Emission a public placement. I would have to fork out 12000dollars before 8th of September *sigh* and then another 12k in March next year … I need some quick profit soon …
Miners are very lazy.
Could not sleep and got rid of 7K JNUG shares at $16.77.
The balance is 17K JNUG shares.
Hopefully the miners will react to heaven.
Good trading to all.
Getting paid nicely on my TVIX. On vacation so missed a really good but on JNUG and NUGT. This is just a flash in the pan spoke on NK news. Toilet flush coming.
The miners now are really, really behind GOLD.
This might be a bull trap or what?
Hopefully the miners will ride a titan rocket.
At resistsnce on 4h, let’s see if it breaks above trendline or fails.. so far it poked it’s ahead above and fell.. But let’s wait for close of candle. Cheers
If things work as they should JNUG will hit $18 today.
Ok well obviously we have a breakout.. lets see if we make new highs for this cycle
Good day everyone, Well the circus is in full gear , if anyone thinks this is a free market how does the stand at 93.60 look. Someone is really worried about 93.60, trumps mad max tweet was very timely, just as usd was moving away from 93.60..
Hey MS, there is no use fighting the trend. Its changed now. I will wait for the DCL before unleashing DUST, but at this juncture we are very close to confirming the ICL. Not confirmed yet, but retail will be chasing gold heavily today.
So Nada did you sell your dust (27.80) in the online bingo contest?
No. I will hold until breakout confirmed in miners.
Will GOLD hit $1297 today?
Mornin Nada: Not sure I agree with you, 93.60 will be the gold killer, short trends are to be played with.
Long term nothing has changed, we stay in the weeds.
No it won’t. Gold can be driven by more than just the dollar. If stocks drop down into a daily cycle low that could be the driver to send gold higher.
Gary,you still long Gold? You must be since this has been so clear in hindsight.
I’m waiting for the next buy setup at the next DCL.
We still have more whipsaws. Right now isn’t the time to be buying. It’s too late in the daily cycle.
Indeed Gary. And we just saw it in action when Nikkei futures took a dive and the Yen moved up breaking overhead resistance which directly correlated with gold. Whew. How can you put that calculation onto a chart when you don’t know from day to day what that North Korean nutcase is going to say next?!!!
JNUG could tag 19 today for some reason… then down to 11…my guess
Howdy Mega: I am with you on the 18 or so on jnug, if it stops there I am looking at around 5.50.
goood morning SMTBlog 🙂
We have a confirmed right translated daily cycle in gold. That means the ICL occurred in July.
Gold will not be going back below 1204 during this intermediate cycle.
Like I said in the video though, we aren’t done with the whipsaws just yet. The proper buy point will come at the next DCL when everyone is bearish again.
Right now the market is going to do exactly as I said it would. The shorts will get knocked out of their positions for heavy losses. The bulls will panic and buy the breakout and then get knocked out again at the next DCL.
Traders need to be patient now. The buy setup is at least a couple weeks away and gold will probably test 1300 again before dropping into the DCL.
WTH Gary! You must be talking aboit yourself! You closed long gold for a loss and short gold for a loss in the last week!
Yes I got whipsawed as well. Which is why I’m now waiting for the next DCL. We aren’t done with the whipsaws yet.
The next DCL will be the opportunity to make a trade that will produce a much bigger gain without the risk of another whipsaw.
I understand its tough and whipsaw, but don’t make it sound as you knew exactly what was happening.
Or maybe you did and just got caught up like everyone else 🙂
I have to wait and see how the market is going and respond like everyone else. I thought the HCL would go a little deeper and push sentiment a little more bearish. Gold bottomed earlier than expected (whipsawed on our DUST play into the HCL), thanks to Trumps fire and fury tweet. But it’s still doing what I was looking for it to do.
Now we have confirmation the ICL is behind us so we can buy aggressively at the next DCL and we won’t have to worry about the whipsaws at that point. That will probably be the point the dead cat bounce in the dollar finishes.
DUST play? What the hell. I just asked you the other day if you had positions in metals and you said no, that all your investments were going to be in stock markets because gold was too difficult to play right now. And also you said you don’t short anything so this DUST news is a pretty big surprise.
What? How do we have confirmation of ICL when the last cycle high has yet to be broken?
You asked me about my own personal portfolio. I’m strictly in stock trades now, and I’ve advised subs to stick to stocks as well. The chart on the last chart of the day explains pretty clearly why.
But some people insist on trading the metals and energy. For them I’ve warned a hundred times no more than 20% of your portfolio in those trades. They are just too erratic and too hard to make money. If one insists on ignoring me about the stock market then at least keep the metal and energy trades small.
The simple way to make money for the next 6-8 months is to buy dips in the stock market. We are getting one now.
OK gotcha. Your personal trades are different that the SMT portfolio. So its your own account that’s in the contest, not the subscriber account.
Dixie is starting to whistle.
Perhaps the first 15-20 minutes at the open will decide whether the miners will take off or we have a little double top.
It would be interesting to watch volume.
gap close buy day imo…the ‘smart money’ maniplators are yer friend now.
1273 is the support target in gold fwiw.
Gary, sounds like you are getting a little nervous, I think that 93.60 will bite, they are going to hold gold till the open to a;llow the bandits to collect some sucker shares, once they got the suckers , big reversal.
Bearish context in the indices is finally resolving to the downside here:
EX, the chart wont display on your site
ToS always has issues with their chart sharing feature (drives me crazy). See if this works:
It says page not found…
I hope for an extremist move up.
Gary, I joined your trading challenge and just sent you an email…Thank you
Yes I went 100% into JDST on the open…my target for JDST is 105 by September 5th based on my analysis of the weekly chart… does that ring a bell with anyone here
Ok I will bite, what is the relevance of September 5th?
Dollar bullish context resolving nicely to the upside here:
Still holding longs…
charts are not displaying boss…
Glad you mentioned it. I was having the same problem so stopped bothering with the links.
Yes – Think or Swim has been notified of the chart sharing issue. I will re-post those charts once the issue has been corrected…
Why not post them on Investing.com in the meantime. They have decent chart features there.
Gary was one of the first to call the ICL and with Gold breaking to new highs, it’s playing out exactly as anticipated. It’s important to give credit where credit is due — Well done G-man!
I agree that the next best set up will be at the next DCL and remember mentioning it a few posts ago.
Now.. Let’s see if I can I break even on my DUST position 🙂 No doubt Goild will be picking up his lunch money today, or my F*cking lunch money in this case..!
Picked more shares this morning. My current average is $28.75
Looking for an intraday bounce to EXIST STAGE LEFT
4h back tested breakout of trendline. Looks good for longs.
You don’t have to make a new high to have confirmation of the ICL. You just need a right translated daily cycle. Gold completed that today by moving above 1280.
That is the signal that the intermediate cycle is in the advancing phase and the next DCL will be an aggressive buying opportunity.
OK thanks for clarification. Yes, I will give credit where it is due – you are the first cycles guy that I know of to call it. Congrats.
Well, no charts, cycles, waves,moon, saturn,for me. Of course, I will look at those to hone my trades. And, the occasional coin toss. I have just one rule: Buy low, sell high. So, loading up on miners who are selling at the yearly lows for a 3-5 years hold.
Probably a good plan and I expect you will outperform almost all of the day traders on this site by many multiples when it’s all said and done.
In my personal account I used a lot more leverage coming out of the last DCL in the Nasdaq than is allowed in the challenge. I’m so far ahead of the challenge leader that it wouldn’t be fair to use my personal account. I’ll just use the SMT stock portfolio or metals portfolio for the challenge.
I’m happy to give credit where credit is due but the SMT portfolio is made of PAPER Gary. Plain and simple.
Sure looks like Gold isn`t scared off by DXY any. I`m starting to think that Arends post about the IMF/BRICKS ARD currency may be dead on along with Russia taking payment for oil with gold and other currencies, etc.. I knew about all of this but sort of ignored it it. (Maybe it will go away). Could be the first chickens are starting to come home to roost.
Not yet. We know its reacting to a tweet at the moment. A rug pull is not out of the question.
Perhaps. Right now I have gone to cash to let things sort out and officially went from a bear bias to neutral. What i am looking at right now is possibly a major reversal pattern.
This is a weekly and the top red trend line is from Sept 1. If the gold closes at 1276.30 or above it will be the first time the body of a candle closed above this trend line since 9-11. Not only that the last five weeks produced a Three inside up bullish reversal, a Three white soldier bullish continuation and if gold closes the week above 1276.3 it will be a bullish engulfing pattern.
That will have my attention!!
correction…This is a weekly and the top red trend line is from Sept 1 should read Sept-11 (2011)
If you look at an adjusted or “weighted” trend line which i tend to believe is more relevant currently, gold could end the week with a successful back test of the bear trend line and the bull is now game on.
When you say ARD do you mean SDR?
Actually I meant ADR. Now, i am not a currency expert by any stretch. I just know that the IMF is supposedly in the process of having the USD losing it`s reserve status and the article states the term ADR. I do belive though that SDR is a basket of currencies with Special Drawing Rights of which Chine was just approved with in the year i believe. As a currency novice most of this can go way over my head but I look at the USD losing it`s reserve status as gold bullish priced in the USD.
Feel free to set me straight. As a currency layman I would appreciate it. 🙂
ADR’s are American Depository Reciepts
SDR’s are a Special Drawing Right at the IMF
Actually, it’s interesting to watch one’s bias vis à vis the environment’s perspective.
Got rid of 12K JNUG shares for a profit so far of $17K. I am holding now 5K JNUG shares.
Technically I made a big mistake yesterday and got into the falling knife.
Luck helps silly guys.
JJ another beer will go to your health.
Hey Zkot, please help to decode your message 🙂
So far the bounce in the dollar has been very weak. I think we have another left translated cycle brewing that will rollover just as soon as stocks find their DCL (or maybe this is a HCL). We haven’t really had anything identifiable as a HCL yet.
Stocks could be setting up for a stretched cycle that will top at 2500 or higher right before Jackson Hole and then drop into a better defined DCL.
You should send a memo to the miners because they look terrible.
What part of more whipsaws didn’t you understand?
We aren’t done fleecing people yet.
The time to buy will be at the next DCL. That’s the point where miners will really start to move. Don’t waste your time on them right now. They are still stuck in their basing phase.
Just keep shorting the miners here. They are utter trash.
Yeah, GDXJ popped above but failed to hold the 50… Look out below! 🙂
Guess who is all smiles this morning? My wife , because i am in such a good mood. Even the dog looks happy. Glad I didn’t listen to all the resident experts here.
You ought to treat yourself to a little lunch time NOOKIE Bigdaddy — You’ve earned it 🙂
I am happy for you! I hope you make a killing . I think you are the most honest trader here.
“please help to decode your message”
You’ve read the book, but I think you said that was a few years ago.
Time to revisit — I recommend the audio version.
When we read something, we “forget” details as time goes by. But we don’t really forget anything. Memories, like beliefs/bias, are energy, which cannot be created or destroyed. If a memory has gone dormant, it can be re-energized easily enough, with a little exercise. In trading, two of the most valuable things to have front of mind are the uncertainty of markets, and the need to be totally free of bias.
If you think my message was encoded, the language did not instantly jar your memory. That suggests a refresher might be a good idea.
Hope this helps!
God, you talk so stupid.
Just shut up already.
You ought to do the same. Next time you show up maybe post a trade and make yourself useful Otherwise put on a kettle and go back to sewing doilies with happy faces.
If things don’t improve by the close, this is a golden shorting opportunity in the miners
Cover if it manages to close above the top rail.
I am with you Spanky, low risk short in my mind but hey is not on trend. is trend the buzz word for sheep ?
A better place to try to short would be on a triple top test of $1300.
If we recover that top rail, I think shoring the miners is potentially suicidal.
Nice chart Spanky. You could be right too. JPY/USD looks like it ran out of gas and topped at the upper rail of its channel implying its going to drop back and take gold with it. Have a look…. *you will have to just imagine the upper rail since I can’t draw them on these charts. The three peaks are April, June and August*
DUST — I’m out WITH lunch money 🙂
Yesterday I said GDXJ could test its declining 50 hour MA yesterday (and that that would be a good shorting opportunity). That’s is exactly what it has done today. It looks pretty sick to me.
Since the January 2016 low, $HUI has not left behind a single black candle on the daily chart.
Is this time different???
I highly highly doubt it.
I’m willing to concede my uber-bearish calls are totally incorrect if GDXJ:GLD can reclaim the top rail. Show me the money:
AAPL is still positive. We need the banks or the semi’s to turn positive to turn this into a reversal. (And a possible HCL).
FB could also potentially fill the shoes of the second bell weather to turn the market back to positive. We need at least two bell weathers to turn in order for the market to follow.
Silver is up almost 50 cents and this is all SIL can manage??? Something is very very wrong.
Agree Spanky. Miners are not buying this one-day bounce. Not at all. So we need to ask, “If the program algo’s are not responding then what are they *actually* reading that the rest of us have not yet noticed?”. Because most trading is automated this must mean the computer programs are designed to buy and sell based on information other than just price moves in the underlying asset (gold and silver).
Well yeah, we knew that. But what we don’t know is why sharp unexpected price movements are relegated to such a low rank position that miners don’t get bid. In other words, we need to wonder what technicals they ARE following that makes mining stock look so lethargic today.
Could it be the Yen?
That one is easy. The algos aren’t going to buy heavily until the miners breakout of their consolidation pattern.
The real question is whether the banks push the miners to breakout late in the cycle and then reverse it to strip the hedgies of some more money.
I don’t know why you guys waste your time with chart patterns in this sector. What you need to be doing is trying to anticipate what tricks the banksters are going to pull next.
I would have thought GDX would be doing much better since gold looks so strong. What is going to take to get the mining stocks to move up?
It is amazing how tricky the miners have become.
My take is that they have no choice but to close higher today.
Some of the traders here are such jerks. A while back, Don and I were speculating on what a war with Korea might do to the markets and some were quite rude. One nasty and very ignorant man in particular, Pedestrian, said we were talking war as an attempt to make gold up. Well, guess what is happening to gold today as war draws closer? UP!
Incredibly, this is what Pedestrian has to say today: “Maybe we are going to have to add geopolitics and rumours of war back into projections for the price of gold. God forbid they actually start a war with one another but who in hell knows ..” HYPOCRITE!!!
I can feel the ‘sexual tension’ between you two.
LOL! Funny but I am into the strong silent types, you know, alpha males. That is definitely not Pedestrian. I picture him as the sneaky weasel type. Don’t you?
Really? you are into men? I thought you were one! Hahahaha!!!!!
I don’t recall *anyone* being rude. I remember there was two exchanges of positions: 1 – the possibility of war and 2. heightened conditions. Maybe I missed some comments but if I recall correctly it was quite civil.
My position on war still stands the same – no way in hell. The population centers of SK and Japan will ensure that.
NADA, you were not rude.
Letting the miners fester for awhile buying the reaction in AAOI again today.
Speaking of Silver.. This one is for Bigdaddy, the new king of the jungle 😉
Ps: There’s even a mention of Netflix Lol!
That sounds something that would be posted on Silver Doctors.
Thank you Christian. Very wise of you to get the hell out of DUST. I don’t know why you got into it in the first place. Did i not explicitly state a few days ago that everyone needs to get out of JDST and DUST? Anyway, it worked out OK for you while other smart guys are getting their bearish asses handed to them.
Don’t get cocky on me big boy! You’re still relatively new at this and making a shit ton of mistakes, Lol
I’m also the one that saved your Ass when you were trying to buy Silver @16.65 — how quickly you forget!
As for my play on DUST.. Gold was in the middle of a correction and the dollar is/was bouncing out of an ICL. Shorting the Miners for a swing trade made the most sense, not the other way around.
And then daddy Trump got out of bed for a piss and tweeted. The rest is History.
Last time the weekly bollinger bands on $hu were this narrow was 2007. Needless to say, the whipsaws over the next year were monumental.
It first started off with a large but short duration spike down out of the consolidation in August 2007 that was about a 20% drop.
That spike was immediately followed by a huge rally that basically saw the $hui go from 300 to around 530 by March 2008!
From March 2008 peak at 530, the HUI crashed lower, ultimately bottoming at around 150 in October 2008!
Talk about an emotional rollercoaster. I remember it well. I remember vividly Gary saying that $HUI was headed to 1000+ once HUI broke through 530 in March 2008. How very wrong he was. We all were.
The rats the manipulators…
I sold 6K JNUG shares when the bid/ask was $16.43/16.44. My order was served at $16.4. Awful RATS.
The manipulators in turn are quite creative as today JNUG candle pattern is a new creation.
We will have cats to deal with the rats as they are extremely patient to wait for the right moment to seize their prey.
Today the manipulators may replay yesterday to do their move up at the last half an hour.
Never use Market Orders
FB just turned positive. We now have two bell weathers in the green. There’s a good chance the market ends the day positive.
I keep saying that FB is going south, just like Netflix is . That company has no future just like Blackberry went to shit .
I know some of you are waiting for my direction and i am working on it so please be patient. At this point, i can say DO NOT sell any silver you might have. It’s just getting started. Stay tuned for an SM update.
Looks like Gary has a new partner.
Just another knee jerk reaction my watch list is turning green already.
Ok, i just bought 2000 USLV at 12.10.
Good luck BD, only you would buy at resistance.
Looks like he is buying over resistance to me.
Further to my post above about 2007, coincidentally, after $hui broke down out of its consolidation, it bottomed the week of *August 20, 2007* and then proceeded to go up almost 80% by March 2008.
Where is Donny boy today? Not like him to be missing out on all the fun.
He is posting under the name Lena PowPow.
Can you say sandwich?
small head and shoulders potential setup (of course its going to develop into a head and shoulders–it’s the miners; I’ll be wrong if 23.09 gets taken out first, but it won’t)
Can you guess the target on the break of the neckline? you got it, $21 on the nose!
come on 2pm, poppa need to buy stock putties to sleep tite
Spanky, I see that you post a lot of ratio charts. Someone mentioned that ratio charts are no good for trading because there are too many variables and I could never figure them out in terms of them providing a clue as to where the markets are going.
So what are you getting out of them? For example , this one that you posted (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p39627363816&a=538793543&listNum=1)
What does it tell you? Which one (Gold or HUI) is going to move in what direction to change the ratio?
This is purely an educated guess, but based on the extremely weak yet positive MACD, the ultra tight bollinger bands, and the ugly daily chart, I believe we are at least going to see a large headfake (spike) lower in this ratio.
That presumed headfake lower could turn out to be a cascade lower though in a worst case scenario .
Otherwise, if you look back at what the ratio did in 2007, it stayed in a relatively tight range all the way through to March 2008. In fact, the ratio was basically slightly dropping as $HUI went from 300 to 530 (gold was going up even more).
Basically, there could be large moves up and down here that in 2 years time will look like blips. But that still won’t take away the fear in the short run if HUI spikes down 20% in a week before rallying 100%.
Thanks for your reply but you didn’t really address my question. You expect a spike, understood. What will you buy to profit from that expectation? Is there a way to play the Gold/HUI ratio, an ETF perhaps?
What happens when you reverse the ratio… HUI/GOLD? I did and it looks totally different. Still don’t get it.
The biggest takeaway is that there is going to be a breakout, one way or another, and it is likely to be large and sustained. Don’t know if it necessarily gives you an edge in terms of investing other than to say you know where your stop is if you are short or long gold or the miners, IMO.
As 2007-2008 showed, I suppose it is possible for the miners and gold to go up a lot together and for gold to outperform the whole time. But I think I can say with pretty high confidence that if you are long the miners, you do not want to see the above chart break out above the 100 WMA, which happens to correspond to the upper rail almost perfectly. The closer we get to the apex, the closer your stop will be, and the lower the risk if you are wrong. Most people will obviously wait until after their is a breakout before taking a position, but the problem there is you will likely be buying (or selling) into a massive spike and will probably have to endure a big initial drawdown or a long consolidation before the next move in the same direction.
If I may interject, and please correct me if I am wrong. If gold and the miners went up or down, the exact same percentage, no matter how big the move, wouldn’t the ratio remain exactly the same? The chart line would not budge.
I have mentioned this before, but ratios are fun to look at but useless for investment purposes. It’s just silly to apply technical studies to them as if they were stocks or ETFs. Time would be better spent studying the charts of gold and HIU separately.
In a true bull market, the miners should trounce gold, not just keep up, IMO.
GDX is gradually moving up. Maybe the sell offs are over. Silver is not backing off at all and that is a good sign. I wish i had bought silver instead of the miners. Hindsight is a bitch.
cos I’m TNT I’m DYNAMITE … TNT by AC/WC 🙂
how about a $100 gap up breakout in Gold !!!
steff – like the way u think.
It’s even better, I am not the one who is making this call, it’s a full blown professional who is part of Irelands academy of technical analysts, a multi prize winner for excellent calls 🙂 that is why I am terrified to be out of the market, the springboard is fully loaded but no one has pulled the trigger yet …
You say we should be buying stocks could we have a discussion about the best top 10 that you like to follow and I would like to hear from other contributors here about their top 10.
if we are in the midst of a major bull run as Gary suggests we should spend more time talking about these stocks.
I’m sure Gary and you guys are more creative then FANG stocks.
Why don’t we have a smart Money tracker top ten Stocks/ETF’s and suggest entries and exits out of the top 10 from a pool of 20 stocks/Etfs we think have max potential.
Could be exciting to track and make some profits from 🙂
I almost always just stick to the index ETF’s so I don’t have to worry about company specific risk.
Or the leveraged ETF’s on those three.
Maybe the miners are sniffing out a 1987 style crash in the stock market? I don’t think its going to happen. Just saying, The miners behaved weirdly between 2007 and March 2008 too.
August 9, 2017 at 6:49 am
OK gotcha. Your personal trades are different that the SMT portfolio. So its your own account that’s in the contest, not the subscriber account
No, Gary’s SMT portfolio is in the contest – we would have no way to verify personal.
since turn is over weekend for me it’s a judgement call on sell friday or see wat happens….
Congratulations to the gold bulls today!
Yesterday’s SM new highs and subsequent reversal are very significant. To suggest that the reversal was due only because of a Trump tweet is being narrow minded. There is more to the reversal than that. I expect we will see further downside in the coming days and weeks. I would not be so sure that the markets will be ‘rescued’ by the PPT. The ‘rescuer’ thus far has been other central banks, notably, the Swiss CB.
I mentioned recently that it will probably be a black swan event that will take the markets down hard. Talk of war is not a black swan even nor would the actual war with N Korea qualify. Black Swan events are something unexpected by most of the population.
The action in gold and silver is catching the majority off guard and will likely continue up, shaking off any possible further dollar strength. I expect the dollar will roll over to fresh lows before too long and that will provide even more strength to the PM’s.
As I stated on more than a few occasions, I am very short the stock market, l am moderately long the miners and very long silver. Needless to say, the action of the past few days has been welcome!
Don, I love your stuff cause you make sense and don’t flop flop all over the bloody place like some characters here. I used to flip flop all the time…no more of that shit. I am thinking that the DOW is seriously too high and might be a better short (ETF) than SQQQ or some of the others. Any opinion?
SLV and $silver put in outside week down candles last week. This week they have taken out the high from last week. That’s what Ira Epstein would call a “bear trap.”
On top of that it’s interesting to note that silver is about to put in an outside week up candle this week! That’s two massive reversal candles back to back. This should be bullish as hell, but the miners aren’t buying it at all….
Miners should outperform gold coming out of an ICL – which has not been the case. Seems they are finally waking up this afternoon.
Maybe gold gaps up $50 one morning and it’s well over $1300. Needless to say that would wreck some peoples’ day. Just a dream…
Spanky, why would you dream for a $50 up day?? With all the bearish noise you have made about gold and the miners (non-stop actually), for the past week, I would think you are heavily short and getting slaughtered. Are you a real trader or of the paper variety?
Nah, I am still long silver miners and have gotten slaughtered already on most of them. I am unlucky enough to own AG and EXK. AXU has held up, but my guess is I am going to get a whipping in it too here shortly.
Until that $gold:$hui chart breaks out, I am holding out some hope.
Gold is squeezing the hell out of bears now.
Where oh where are the miners? Shouldn’t they be exploding upwards?
GDX is up 1.9% with gold up only 1.3%. I would say that interest in the miners is building slowly. How many bears on this board have given up and went long?
The smart money was buying while everyone was waiting for Dec lows to be taken out. They are still waiting.
That’s not typically how it works. Smart money would have been all over GDX instead of gold beginning last month, don’t you think?
Now it’s an intermediate decline they are waiting for. Sheesh.
Don are you in contest? Not that I think it means much, since there are no emotions – but just curious.
Nope. I don’t feel the need to prove anything. Almost all my trades have been posted real time here anyway. The contest is a good idea for those who like the challenge. However, it would be more interesting if the traders were identified by the handle they use here .
Many of my holdings were bought a long time ago and I am not much of short term trader although I will do the occasional day trade for fun.
Yes, I think the handles should be used so we know who the hell they are 😛 With the contest, I think its just something fun to do and Gary is being generous enough with his time and money (if you win). Thanks for clarification on trading style.
Who’s shorting the miners overnight?
Still in DUST for contest and my real money is in GDX 22 puts Oct 20th expiration, so yeah short miners.
With that said, not really a good place to be:
Ok guys, i think it’s pretty clear where the SM is headed and that’s down. I just put an order in to buy 1000 SPXU at 28.35. Feel free to follow my lead although i don’t want to hear any belly aching if it goes wrong .
You better get another computer on order big guy:)
Buy the dips.
10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get to the really nutty phase of the bubble.
The only question is trying to figure out the bottom of the dip, but it’s not extremely important as corrections will soon get erased. So perfect timing isn’t necessary.
Oops. The order got bounced… wrong symbol….. it’s SDOW, not SPXU
smart money =slave to government yields money now – don’t look for hi iq leadership anytime soon .
You would think after today’s move, $gold should be able to hit the upper bollinger band on the weekly chart, coming in at $1298 as of yesterday.
Big day in TVIX, still holding for bigger fish.
That was a nice play DBOZ. What did u get in at, if you don’t me asking?
SLV’s weekly candle, at least as of today, is wildly bullish (outside week up after and outside week down). Obviously it can come back down between now and Friday, but still… And yet my EXK is down like 40% in the last few days. AG basically the same. AXU is dead flat, just like the last 6 months (although it has earnings tomorrow). And it’s not like the indexes have shot to the moon either (although they are not down 30%).
If the securities in a ratio change the same % the ratio does not remain the same.
Only when the securities have the same price.
Ratios can be useful, as one more component to support a trade.
Goild: Humor me, and take one stock at $100 and another at $80. 100/80 =1.25. Now, increase both by 10%. Now we have $110 and $88. 110/88=1.25. The ratio remains the same when both go up the same percentage (NOT dollar amount). Put that ratio on a chart and the line remains flat. Ratio charts are useless eye candy.
“Ratio charts are useless eye candy”. – Don
Boy you sure make some winning comments. I suspect you just can’t read ratios so that’s why you don’t see value. Maybe you have never heard of two of the most watched charts in the gold sphere though so let me help you out.
Gold / Silver ratio
Dow / Gold ratio
Of course Price to Earnings (P/E) is also a ratio.You think it’s important maybe?
How about Debt to Equity? That’s a ratio too. So is Price to Book. Matter of fact the miners/gold ratio Spanky keeps referring too is one of the most followed charts in the business.
You still think they are useless?
I sorry Ped, your comment is just too stupid for me to bother responding too.
Eye is sorry too 🙂
I always use market orders and no hard stop loss. To much work.
Though I will work on setting hard stop losses.
I enjoy you posts.
They reflect substantial experience in this business.
Good trading to you.
All that gold price went up today, 3X Gold miners didn’t do squat, I am moving out to a more sane world.
Gold Mining Streamers….
Biggest bang for buck if gold prices go up. This is only one directional play so they may be not suitable play for most of you.
GLTA, Enjoying watching all day today. 😉
Goild, my dog can perform math better than you. If two numbers go up the same percentage, of course the ratio would remain. the same. Get out you calculator and use the bloody thing.
The miners might be telling that GOLD’s up move is a fake.
Next week the smoke might clear up, business as usual, USD bounces, and Gold/miners sink.
I am leaving 2K JNUG shares on the table. Hope not to regret it.
“August 9, 2017 at 7:31 am
Yes – Think or Swim has been notified of the chart sharing issue. I will re-post those charts once the issue has been corrected… ”
charts works after re-freshing, Thanks for sharing.
Try 50 and 100 which give you a ratio of 0.5.
say they go up 10% each. then you have 55/110 then the ratio becomes 0.5 and you are correct.
Sorry for the error.
I did the calculation before but for gdxj/jnug assuming that the change in JNUG is 3X of the GDXJ.
Then the ratio does not remain the same.
Got a fill. 1000 SDOW at 28.35
This is what a custom indicator I am testing has gold for short. I was a bit early in my own account, but lets see how this plays out. I am in GLD Oct 20th strikes 120 and 119 and GDX 22 puts w/Oct 20th expiration.
It certainly may toy with me and go back up, maybe even higher. Best to wait for swing high.
WTF, now at 28.30. Just once, i would like a buy to go my way immediately. I will have to refine my timing.
Same chart from the other day. Now the SPX is trying to reclaim the 10ema. BTFD.
WTF! I thought you were king of jungle and I was supposed to follow your lead??! 🙂
Changed my and and sold everything.
The miners would fall if gold falls. Now that gold is higher the miners could be punished way too much.
Best to keep those profits. Check out the chart I posted above on spot gold, the indicator has been solid and today is a big test. If gold is short from the box area on the chart, then this will confirm its reliability for me.
Wed Aug 09, 2017
most of the First Majestic accident repaired 🙂
You know all their mines in Mexico.
Talk about political risk.
SPY says NK tensions will vanish and business would be as usual. Hope so.
Are you referring to the gold/usd ratio chart?
I could not find the one on spot gold.
Thank you again.
Indeed, it is suggesting a short.
However, we need to see that physically the ration is falling.
Otherwise it could go higher for a while in a bubble.
Why hasn’t JNUG went up 10% today?
It goes down 10% in no time if the price action was in opposit direction.
When a gold mining streamer SAND beat out 3X JNUG, that was last straw for me.
Sure, you get 10 baggers in DUST JNUG, what energy and time do you have to put them there, and LUCK. You gotta be really lucky not get caught up with all that price movements. Then you have a day like today, nothing happened in JNUG world. a mere 67 cents.
The thing to do is to master JDST and DUST.
Their tendency to go up prevails over the tendency of JNUG and NUGT.
Though, shorting somehow is not natural to many.
In addition the JNUG and NUGT managers are making a lot of money. Those manipulators have a great business.
They lure many into the 3X return, they capitalize on greed.
You might be a little late to that party.
Goild: There is a lot of truth to what you said. Ergo, I made about $75K on 7 straight Dust trades. But lost 1K on my 8th trade with Nugt. By the way, used the profit to splurge on a Lexus.
You made 75K and then lost a whole 1K? What happened? Did you max out your bullshit meter?
Today, we witnessed an example of rank manipulation of the stock market. Ponder the absolutely miserable market internals:
Advancing issues 1964: Declining issues: 4729, New highs, 110, New lows 202
Yet, the S&P was managed so as to show a trivial loss of only 0.04%. It’s ETF, SPY, actually closed UP 0.04% . Such a discrepancy between what the overall market was doing and what will be reported in the evening news, could only have been accomplished the selective purchases of a few key stocks that exert a disproportionate influence on the S&P 500. Apple and Berkshire Hathaway are two such stocks that managed to close up today. All the public will know is that it was an uneventful day with a very small loss. Nothing to see here folks. All is well.
So, who are the culprits that are jacking the market? Well, we know the Swiss Central bank is definitely one of them with over 80 billion into US markets. No doubt, the BOJ has a big chunk also. As Gary has pointed out many times, these bank have virtual printing presses and are not shy about wielding that power.
Do not think that stocks will never fall again because there will come a time when the central banks will allow that to happen. Don’t forget that almost all booms and busts have been engineered by interest rates and that always has been controlled by the CBs. Now they have a much more direct method of control and that is by way of direct stock ownership.
Jesus Christ how many times must you get beaten over the head before you understand?
We don’t have free markets anymore. Quit pretending that we do. Just make money off the manipulation instead of trying to fight it.
Gary, you misunderstood what I was saying, or didn’t read it all. Yes, the markets are manipulated or as I put it “managed”. Today was an good case in point of that.
Yes it was. You should try making some money off of it.
Or instead of trying to figure it out! Life is too short Don.. haven’t you noticed??
And you don’t try and figure it out? I kind doubt that very much Christian. Smart people are always trying to figure things out.
So says the genius who calls ratio charts eye-candy and a waste of time.
Nope. The CBs, and most bankers at places like GS, JPM etc, know full well there will be a lynch mob coming after them the next time the stock market crashes. Therefore, they will fight any such tendency tooth and nail. Of course, it doesn’t mean we couldn’t see a 10-20% correction, but even that is fantasy at this point.
Very interesting, I thought it was odd how the market got back up to nearly even when almost everything I looked was down.
You will never see me playing any leverage etf.
All the time, energy wasted and heartache, it ain’t worth it.
Problem with PPT is we don’t know when the plug is going to pull out, INVOLUNTARY.
Then you in a real shit creek.
You’ve got to be crazy if you think they will voluntarily pull the plug. What possible reason would there be for that?
As long as they keep the stock market inflated it’s impossible to have a recession.
You are looking in the wrong direction. The problem isn’t that the bottom is going to fall out. the problem is they will create another bubble. When the bubble pops then they will have problems.
Just use a little common sense.
Gary, it is generally accepted that the FED creates recessions deliberately when it suits their need to do so. They used to use interest rates as their primary tool which caused the money supply to grow or shrink as needed. Now that doesn’t work so well so they are resorting to direct stock manipulation. What makes you so sure that they won’t engineer another recession? Is this time different?
That’s complete nonsense. No politician wants a recession. People lose their jobs when recession hit. Governments have been trying to figure out a way to control the business cycle for hundreds of years. Now that all central banks are on board with the money printing scam they’ve found a strategy to prevent recessions at least until they create the next bubble.
The pattern has been the same for the last 17 years. Print, print print. Bubble. Crash. Starting printing again.
I thought the FED started printing with the introduction of QE1 and then they only bought bank bonds with money. As far back as I can remember, with the exceptions of the oil embargo of 73 and the financial crisis of 08, it was high interest rates that choked off the economy and caused a recession.
Interest rates have never caused a recession. Recessions are caused by inflation, specifically a rise in the price of oil of 100% or more in a year or less. Every recession since the 40’s has been caused by this. Before that it was a spike in the price of grains (wheat and corn) that caused recessions.
Gary, the FED members are not politicians and you are wrong about how they have been ‘printing’ for 17 years. I don’t know where you got that from. Furthermore, it is ludicrous to say that they have not engineered recessions. What was the purpose of raising interest rates then?
Raising rates has never caused a recession. Inflation causes recessions.
PPT Gary 🙂
PPT is only juicing those few companies in indexes.
Soon and very soon, you will see a huge disparity between NON-INDEX companies, which are probably over 90% of all listed companies and those few INDEXED companies that Swiss National Bank is buying, in terms of earning potentials. What is historical earning power of S&P, is n’t it somewhere in 17s?
Like you often like to say “extremes get revert to the means”. That high PE ratio INDEXED companies have to reverted to the means, that is to lower PE. No amount of manipulations can changed the fact. You don’t expect to buy a share thinking you will get your 100% return on your investment 100 years.
You are completely clueless. S&P earnings have increased 20% year over year for the last three quarters. The PPT doesn’t buy individual companies. They buy S&P futures and the market follows higher. We’ve got tons of room yet for multiples to expand. The last bubble the PE was 43. We’re only at 24 right now. When things really start to get silly there’s no reason we couldn’t see 40 again.
spot the false assumption:
” This structure forms a vast cellular network that somehow makes us capable of thought and consciousness that we do not understand.”
“Interest rates have never caused a recession” Nonsense. When Volker raised interest rates during the 1980’s to the 20% neighborhood in order to combat inflation, a severe recession quickly followed. This comes from Wikipedia’s biography of Paul Volker: ” The prime rate rose to 21.5% in 1981 as well, which helped lead to the 1980-1982 recession” (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Volcker)
You just inadvertently made my point. “to combat inflation”
The inflation caused the recession not raising interest rates. Raising rates was the cure but by that time the damage was already done and the recession inevitable.
i stand by what I said. Even thought the markets are managed to an unprecedented degree, that doesn’t mean the markets will not, at some point, go down and do so with the FED’s blessing and control. They don’t give a damm what the politicians want.
The markets will go down once the bubble runs it’s course and then pops.
We still have to go through the vertical phase before that happens. Like what bitcoin is experiencing now.
Afternoon Folks: Looking at the indu today it came at a marker 22000, if it goes below I will start shorting the market,
Do you ever go long anything?
Gary, only when there is an opportunity, still think this market is going down, so right now look for a short position, fits well with my 16000 marker.
Ok Gary, let’s deal with some facts:
Inflation 1976 4.86%…. NO recession
Inflation 1977 6.70%….. NO recession
Inflation 1978 9.02%….. NO recession
Inflation 1979 13.29%…. NO recession
Inflation 1980 12.52%……FED boosts FFR to 14% in JAN and then 20% in April before backing down 8.5% in May. FINALLY, a mild recession from Jan-July
Inflation 1981 8.92%…… Inflation actually falls but FED boosts rate to 20% in Dec. of 1980 and leaves it there for almost a year with minor adjustments. A severe recession begins July and continues for 16 months.
Inflation 2007 4.08 % Great Recession starts in December of 2007- what the hell, only 4% inflation?
Inflation 2008 0.09% Great Recession continues despite very low inflation.
1981 was absolute proof that the FED engineers recessions. Inflation was falling and they kept the FFRate pegged until the economy was flattened. Now, if you still think that inflation causes recessions then I give up. Your mind set is impossible to penetrate.
I’ll say it again. Every recession has been preceded by a spike in oil prices of 80% or more in a year or less. That is too big of a shock to the economy. Consumer spending collapses. The price of all goods increase as the price of transporting jumps.
In 73 OPEC jumped the price of oil from $2.90 to $11.00 in response to US aid to Isreal. The recession of 74 followed.
In 1980 the price of oil doubles due to the Iran Iraq war. Recession follows.
From early 99 to late 2000 the price of oil surges from $10 to almost $40. A recession follows.
From early 2007 to mid 2008 the price of oil goes from $50 to almost $150 with the usual predictable outcome.
I rest my case 🙂
For those who wish to study the relationship between Interest rates, inflation, and recessions, here are some helpful links:
I rest my case.
spx closed below the marker at 2476, start shorting if it can’t make it above, tomorrow could get interesting, ndx closed below a marker at 5922. are these the tops.
Wow, very interesting discourse between Gary and Don. Both sound like lawyers and both present good civil arguments. LOL! This is why I am so glad I found this blog site. It is by far, the best.
So people, what is in store for tomorrow? I am a encouraged by what gold has been doing and will perhaps more GDX or some GDXJ. I have an inheritance to invest and I am feeling more confident about putting a part of it into the markets. Any advice is welcome (except from one awful you know who).
Here’s a tip: Put that inheritance in a brown bag and do nothing more than wait a few years.
Can’t agree more, I keep telling Gary there is a lifetime shorting opportunity,tomorrow could tell the story.
LOL one could have made that same valuation argument in 97. 3 yrs too soon….
The Fed keeps doing the same thing over and over they will keep getting the same result. We have to go through the bubble phase before the crash.
Well Gary, I will let Mable Marker tell me. right now it is shorting everything except the usd.
By all means follow Don. You seem to like him!
Thanks ZKOT! You are welcome to follow also.
Pin the tail on the Donkey.
I’m resting my case now too. Good night from the UK. See you all tomorrow for another fun packed day 😀
Still bullish the dollar here and holding longs from 93.22 given the rising floors in the down slope:
Russell Bear ETF (RWM) playing out to script here:
Still long TZA.
Congratulations on the lexus!
You must have a clear mind, and a good level of talent.
It is not easy to put that kind of money on a 3X fund, to have the understanding of
single-mindedness, and that the short side provides and edge in untrendy markets.
Whenever you have some time please share nuggets of wisdom.
That is how you see trading. How your crystal ball works.
A nice example
You and Kruzoe are such big winners that you should both have a Lexus as a second car.
Gary, you should let us know the weather wherever you are. I’ve got a feeling that rainy days are great days to play on the blog.
🙂 I spend more time on the blog on rest days. When I’m not climbing.
Friday morning should be interesting. I see the inflation numbers are coming out again. Last month there was absolutely no change in the inflation numbers yet it became an excuse to send the USD and gold all screwy. Let’s see what the non-news does this month.
Everything is looking good right now with gold and silver still going up and the markets down. I hate to go to bed and wake up to see everything reversed. Then I won’t get to gloat.
If we hit $60, crude will be up 135% in 18 months… it was already up 100% in 8 months last year. First opportunity for top in the market is next year early Summer. Could get pushed to 2019, no way to say today
God morgon 🙂
Silver is flexing it’s muscles this morning. I had a quick look at the chart and this move looks very much like an impulsive move to me.
See the chart and the basic impulsive wave count:
We are running out of time for a huge drop, we are close to midAugust. I think some of you are stuck in a too bearish mindset here.
Remember when summer doldrums ends and seasonality kicks in …
gooood morning SMTblog 🙂
Indeed my dog is smarter than I. I am the slave working for him. He leaves a life of leisure, pampering and worry free.
Who is doing well here?
#1 is Gary, and Terryw who is not posting; this tier is at least $100K a year.
Then we have those in the next tier, say $50K to $100K.
We know of Kruzoe, I am too, and who else…
Oh! RonL makes good money too.
Probably Christian and Nada too. Perhaps Pedestrian but he seems to be struggling. Add Mustang Sally.
Don, has been a long time in this business, has an open mind, though it is not clear which tier he is in.
The next tier say $10K to $50K probably half of the regulars.
Then you have the pigs who on due time lose their accounts, disappear, or their wives beat them.
Dboz has a lot of money, though it is not clear if he is green. He does not want lunch money but wants retirement money.
I hope I am way, way wrong and all you guys are in upper tier.
But quite frankly, given the time spent here, and the level of education, the minimum wedge should be at least $100K/year.
Most of the regulars are beyond 50 years old. If you are younger, it is a trading asset as you have a longer time horizon and a longer time for a potential healthy mind.
gold: cycles for me show july was *the* bear market low, a higher low obviously in price. v.bullish stance indicated. wish I was smart enough to see that in 2011 🙁 one side benefit of this that it says this low is more significant than the 2011 high, fwiw. let’s see wat develops!
Considering the following research it seems that Gold could see a $1045 the best bet before going up if miners are leading Gold 75% of the time unless you would like to bet on 25% chance. The odds are stacked for the bears medium term. So we always at a point to reasses the whole picture.
Here is a video by IGold indicating that miners lead gold in direction 75% of time, considering patterns in periods before significant down turn then seen weekly charts 2003, 2008, 2011 except 2005 that it did not.
So far the odds are against bulls considering this research and considering where we heading.
Any contrary arguments?
convincing arguments abound, reason psychology rules,pick a metric in isolation at yer risk.
We shall soon see if earlier this week was a gift prior to launch or we are now in a monster bull trap. It’s not easy, that is for sure. On vacation this week so serious FOMO as I sold a lot last week. Feeling I missed that nice collapse on Tuesday. Is this just news driven and will revert or is this the big breakout we have been waiting on for a year? Daily bulls are only about 40 for good and silver. So it has a chance here.
The miners might not be doing well as I take it that gold companies are all over the world.
The world stability should have an impact on the miners valuation and currently there is world uncertainty.
But uncertainty is good for gold and so the miners fate may not necessarily be a predictor for gold’s price.
That would be putting the carriage in front of the horse.
Though the price of gold whenever it goes down should impact the miners negatively, but nor necessarily the other way around.
I changed sides yesterday,convinced now that the ICL is behind us. This based on the very weak bounce of the USD yesterday. I think it will just correct sideways to work off oversold conditions, and then resume lower. Someone I follow and respect has a target on EURUSD between 1.22 and 1.26. Then, we should see a violent turn.
Bought a small chunck of AG at 6.13 and some GDXJ at 33.75. Just in case we explode upwards, will add on any dip (DCL).
AG retraced 78% of the monster rally from 2.4 to 19.2. A lot of disappointed bulls have been thrown off. I suspect it is going rally violently again, in the not so far away future.
Without bothering to get out the calculator it looks like the retrace was some 60+ percent of the total move so far. Probably nearer the .62 Fib. So we have a ways before we get to 78% but that may not happen now that Asian tensions are on the rise.
In any case lower metals stocks was pretty much what I was expecting and I wrote about it extensively a year back. The charts just were not supportive of the bull case so many people were insisting on at that time. My feeling was that miners could retrace most if not all their move since December 2015 and for some of them that has been the case.
But times have changed and the mood in metals may be turning towards a safety flight.
Especially if the Yen rises on NK fears although in some respects that makes no sense. Kim Kong has also threatened Japan and to me that should see Yen falling, not strengthening, if he were to actually attack them. But we can’t have it both ways so Japanese stocks fell instead and the Yen automatically appreciated.
Nuts eh? Think about that for a second. If a country faced a nuclear attack would you run out and buy their currency (or their stock market for that matter)? Probably not but that’s the market for you. It need no make sense some times.
There is strong historical precedent of the yen appreciating during periods of risk aversion as it is viewed as a safe-haven currency. Like the swiss franc, the currency benefits because it has been the largest creditor nation for several decades. I’m sure that won’t make any sense to you but you can research why that’s important on your own.
In terms of you droning on about yen/gold correlation, the relationship between the two is not one of causation. If you bother to go back more than a couple years you’ll see periods where the yen and gold are either uncorrelated or negatively correlated. It just so happens that the same factors driving the yen right now are the very same ones affecting gold as well. Perhaps you can take a stab at what factors those are and which one will change before the two assets diverge?
Here’s where you now dodge the question and claim that I didn’t answer your intrinsic value question just because you didn’t like my answer.
Matter of fact you never did address the intrinsic value discussion and instead chose to make it a conversation that revolved more around your mental health issues than the economy.
Oh snap! You really showed me. You’re filled with all kinds of clever responses but no substantive answers to any questions. Even when Don asked you to explain your own gibberish about the “emotional content” of the market, your brilliant, insightful comment was more nonsense about tulips. You are not fooling anyone and I’m through with you now that you have been sufficiently exposed as the fraud that you are.
Anyway, carrying on to another thought. Now that we know the market will see stocks sell off (and thus metals trade rise) on war we might wonder a little about the near future. Armstrong is saying Socrates pegs middle September as a high risk time where the war cycle is concerned and thus could involve a North Korean event. Will he be right? I have no bloody idea but we shall see. If he is right though stock markets should fade then and metals take off higher so put it on your radar. I imagine if the event is serious we could even see a steep correction in equities triggered on that news. Like a lot of people here I don’t like trying to trade around the unpredictable even when the threat is known. So for me it will be sticking with short term trades that allow me to get back in cash at the end of most days.
Anyway, carrying on to another topic that you clearly know nothing about. You are just stating something that you see in the market. If you bother to look at history, you would see that after an initial selloff stocks tend to do very well during periods of wartime. Perhaps you can enlighten people as to why that is? Also, if you believe that the market is selling off today just because of NK, then perhaps you can explain what changed since yesterday? The heated rhetoric between Trump and Kim John Un has been out there for a few days so why the bigger move this morning?
When was the last time there was a *real* threat of a nuclear exchange that you can recall?
Thanks I thought it was going to be with wedgies and spitballs.
AG ran up from 2.4 to 19.2. At 5.92, the lowest point reached 2 day s ago, it had exactly retraced 78% of this rally, and bounced.