174 thoughts on “GOLD UPDATE

  1. Nada

    @BlueBellKId
    I was checking out IBD, is investors.com the correct site? They have a free 4 week trial. The one big turn off I see is that the site has advertisements. What is the deal with that for a paid site??

    1. Bluebellkid

      Probably because some of their content is accessible without a subscription but that is just a guess.

  2. dboz

    The gold pullback could be very mellow, or it could be one last scare. Regardless, I think on that pullback is the time to see a nice gain on miners again. May take a lot more time here though to play out. Like 6 more weeks. So SEPT/OCT will give a good buy, another 6 weeks from there another pullback into late November and Dec., THEN load the boat at that time. At least that is what my plan called for. LOL

  3. Christian

    Not sure what all the fuss is about..

    GOLD is still very much stuck in a range. We could see a bit more upside but I don’t think it’ll be sustainable considering the DC is now running late.

    LONG TERM I am very much a Gold Bull but short term.. I think the Bull are being set up πŸ™‚

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/S48g453D/

    1. Pedestrian

      Thanks for adding that comment Christian. I agree. The bulls are about to get their arses handed them if they go long today. Look at the dollar. That’s a clear double bottom forming during the month of August. Just one example of course. You can read this a mile away if you are paying attention.

      1. Bluebellkid

        I don’t see the double bottom you are referring to and proper double bottom bases take at least 7 weeks to form and the second leg down has to go lower than the first leg down in order to shake out the weak holders and that has clearly not happened.

      2. Gary Post author

        Correct, a double bottom should occur late in a daily cycle. Maybe on day 25 or later. A retest of the bottom this early in the cycle should mean another failed cycle is coming.

      3. Christian

        I have to agree with Blue and Gary on this one Pedestrian.. Momentum is currently to the downside in the dollar.

        I also (again) agree with Gary that a “starter” position in Gold might not be such a bad idea.

      4. Sassybabe

        (Pedestrian) You sound very sure of yourself. What would be a good ETF to buy to benefit from your analysis? Ty

        1. Pedestrian

          Hello again Sassy.

          If you are still new at this my suggestion is to do nothing until early next week. It is my strong belief the dollar will reverse and head higher while the euro falls which is a big negative for both gold and miners. In spite of my confidence there have been times I was wrong and the market does throw curves whenever we get too cocksure of ourselves.

          If you are are interested in making money during a decline (and I hope you do make the effort to learn about it because its often much better than the long side during a continuing gold bear market) then one of the easiest ways is to play inverse ETF’s. They come in a variety of types depending on your risk and focus on both gold & silver shorts plus gold/silver mining stock shorts, as you prefer.

          Its not appropriate for me to recommend anything for a new trader however I can suggest the names you might do a little research on.

          Its easy enough to Google a full list if you like. The most popular inverse ETF’s discussed daily on this site go by names like DGLD, DSLV, JDST and DUST. In Canada they are using HZD and HGD which are Horizon 2X products and some people play those instead because they have a currency consideration at work.

          Just be VERY careful with any of these 1X, 2X and 3X funds since they are NOT meant to be held for any length of time and many people have utterly destroyed their accounts by trying to use them as a buy-and-hold option.

          As a rule you use them for short term directional bets, make your money and get the hell out again. Generally I stick to using them for a day trade at most however I have held for a week at a time when the setups were good. Just know they can reverse violently and unexpectedly at times so be prepared.

          The nice thing about them is you can make 5, 10 or even 20% in a day when it goes your way. Always play these things by watching the opposite of the fund you are using. For example, if you like DUST (large cap miners short) then keep your eyes peeled on NUGT as well since when one goes down the other rises.

          Hope that helps.

      1. Christian

        Dude — a higher low on a yearly cycle basis signifies a trend change. It’s that simple. And btw.. Gold is not at all behaving like a bear.

        Open your eyes and stop being so stubborn for once in your life..!

  4. Nada

    @Ped

    I think you are being too bearish in regards to gold. I posted the BOW from 8/22 and 8/24. Gold is going up first, then we will have a proper DCL. I still see an upside target of 1306 and 1316. I think the DCL will be formed around 1260-1270 after making new highs.

    1. Christian

      Not a bad plan but Gold is really struggling to break through that Resistance box I drew on my chart.

  5. MegaMind

    Gold could tag 1260 before taking out overhead resistance…stock markets should start dropping in couple of weeks…

  6. Spanky

    Should be some fireworks, up or down, into the close today due to Draghi’s late day speech (2 pm est?).

    One note of caution on the miners and PMs–the weekly stochastics are well into overbought for gold and are approaching overbought on GDX. In the past, gold hasn’t been able to advance much when you get stochastic readings into the 90’s. You’ve generally needed a bit of a pullback for at least a week or two to take some steam out of the momentum before another leg higher can begin. Not saying that is what is going to happen this time, but it’s worth noting.

    I am long silver miners, which haven’t been acting well at all the last few months in absolute and relative terms.

    I am resigned to just watching the monthly charts here. The bollinger bands are narrowing in and by next month should be extremely narrow. Thereafter, it’s anyone’s guess how the miners move in the relatively near term. They could easily tag the lower monthly band before rebounding or even break down a bit in a headfake move before reversing. That could play out over months. The monthly picture is the same way for gold too. We could be range bound for much longer than anyone anticipates–another 6-12 months?

    1. Bigdaddy

      Spanky, be honest, is that technical mumbo jumbo making you any money on a consistent basis?

      1. Spanky

        Nah, I’m old turkey long miners since mid-2015. I am just watching the charts because I want to make large gains sooner (within the next 5 years) rather than later (i.e., 10 years from now).

        1. Bigdaddy

          Okay, you love to watch the charts but just buy and hold until you make money. That’s the smart way and what i want to get better at. I believe chart studies are just plain horseshit that provide a 50% win rate over the long term.

          1. Pedestrian

            You believe that because you are misinformed or don’t understand. Most trading is automated these days and the algo’s are programmed to buy based on technicals, fibonacci’s, support and resistance and that sort of thing. Prices often bounce precisely at major moving average lines for example. If you don’t trade technically these days you will get eaten alive. What you are really doing by taking a mechanical and math based approach is piggy backing on what the computer driven programs are doing anyway. We are not trying to beat them since that’s not possible, just take a piece of the pie when they move.

  7. Bigdaddy

    I am sorry for not being available much these past few days but have been busy with business meetings and doctors appointments. I am pleased to say my holdings are all making me money right now except SPXU which is down only 2 cents from my price. Even that god damm FB is finally breaking down. Being short the stock market is where there is money to be made folks. Stay tuned as i will be studying the markets and will have an update soon.

    1. Lenapowich

      BigD, I hope your doctor’s appointments are for nothing serious. I always “stay tuned” for what you say.

  8. Christian

    DUST — My original purchase price was 26. Buying another handful @25

    Yep! Cost averaging down. That one’s for you Blue πŸ™‚

    1. Spanky

      You are brave to buy before EOD. This is either going to go very bad for you are very good for you. I don’t think there will be an in between.

      1. Christian

        Maybe — but if the shit hits the fan.. I’m confident I can “at the very least” break even.

      1. Christian

        Most certainly not. Just playing what I think might turn out to be a bull trap and posting in real time so that old farts like you can criticize, Haha just kidding Blue.

        ERX holding up well don’t you think? Damn it! Where is that VOLUME?! I WANT VOLUME NOW!!

          1. Bluebellkid

            I was referring to ERX but it may be true of others. Once we get past August volume should pick up but then we have to deal with seasonality and September which does not have a good track record. I know October is known for the big sell offs but September is traditionally a weak month.

  9. Spanky

    The weekly and monthly charts for the miners are pretty much dead neutral right here IMO. We are literally at a crossroads, although it may take a few more months for them to really show their hand and the overriding trend.

    One PM bull who I respect thinks the next leg higher is imminent. I hope he is right, but I also think its realistic that the miners could be stuck in a wide trading range for a couple of years before breaking to new highs.

    1. Christian

      A couple of years?? No way jose..!

      Once Gold finds a DCL and reverses, Miners will follow with gusto πŸ™‚

  10. Bigdaddy

    I forgot to mention that my contacts in the oil business tell me that crude will be taking another dive before it finally reverses and heads up to the $60 level. I was ready to buy now but they say it’s too early. I don’t know if i agree with them but WTF do i know? I like silver better anyway.

  11. Gary Post author

    The correct strategy is to buy dips in both stocks and metals. The only question is in trying to time the bottom, but it’s not necessary as both will be making new highs.

    The Nasdaq will easily make it to at least 10,000 before the bull tops, and gold will at least make it to 1400 this year.

    The way to make long term gains is to buy the dips.

    The way to take one step forward and one step back is to place counter trend trades against the bull market trend. If one stubbornly tries to outsmart a bull market they will almost without exception end up with less money than they started and for sure with less money than if they had just bought long and held on.

    1. Christian

      That’s true — One has to be one hell of a tactician in order to make money trading both sides of the market.

  12. Goild

    At the open went JNUG long to get into the extremely sharp falling knife.
    Did not lose the head. Loaded more shares toward the bottom and got very lucky on the reversal.
    At some point I was losing $3K. But got lucky.
    Those awful knifes, you got to be well prepared with automatic reactions which are contrary to human nature.
    Got lunch money for 3 days so I will not be hungry this weekend.
    Have a good one.

  13. Spanky

    Draghi’s speech is apparently set for 3 pm est, so we won’t be getting any moves based on his speech today.

    Should be a very interesting next few weeks in the metals.

  14. Goild

    Gary,

    JNUG went down to ~$18.2 this morning.
    A talented guy would have reasoned that the gold spike just before the open was a trap given the low volume.
    That guy would have guessed that a fall could happen to later level out. So he/she would have waited patiently for the huge divergence of JNUG at $18.2 and load many shares to make big bucks in 15 minutes.

    Let us aim at and practice the fine art of trading.

      1. Troy

        I think ‘catching falling knives’ on a day trade within an uptrend is one thing, but catching them on longer time-frames can be hazardous to your wealth.

  15. Spanky

    They could drag this out to the apex, which looks like it lands in late September. the MACD has been ridiculously flat–unnaturally so IMO–for months now.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3AGDX&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p70150809219&a=541256814&listNum=1

    You would expect weak miners relative to gold in the next 1-2 weeks as we make our way back up to the top rail. My guess is this ratio will eventually tag the declining 100 WMA before the miners show their hand.

    1. Andy

      Nope I am long several miners, but not any ETFs like GDXJ….too much dead weight in those for my liking.

      1. Troy

        Add me back in the long gold column. Only a modest JNUG position until the next DCL is put in.
        Also holding TQQQ,SVXY, UWT,GUSH & ERX.

  16. dboz

    I added some DUST today. No long miners right now. After this video today, Gary sees a pullback. Sure we could stretch out based on the dollar etc but things seem to be stagnating. Need to get some volatility back in the game to create some action. IMO too many are ultra bullish here. BUT, we could surely launch hire but I think that would not hold or last. Like Gary says, getting too late.

    To me, GDXJ is looking like it is peaking on almost every time frame. I also realize that we can stay overbought for long periods in a bull market, but the volume just does not seem to support enthusiasm here to say we have lots of buyers rolling in to keep us propped up.

    NOT to mention, the beat down attempt this morning. I think they tried to get down side movement rolling figuring that YELLEN would polish it off and create a down draft. The desired effect was a failure and we got an instant snap back. Wasted a lot of good powder. If the metals get away and out of control the short squeeze will become EPIC.

    Small DUST position. Nothing major at all. Not even playing it for the contest……yet. Did not want to bug Gary with it. Kept him hopping lately, not by choice, but sometimes its just how it works out.

    1. dboz

      I made a lot of moves in and out of TVIX this week. Need to let the powder dry. All tied up. Can’t wait for 9/5 for the 2 day cycle vs. the 3 we have now.

          1. dboz

            Yeah, no where near as nice as yours. I am a kindergartner with tech! LOL Don’t even use a cell phone.

        1. Spanky

          Of course we could just gap up above the top rail, but that seems extremely unlikely to me at this point. The miners look like they are just biding time waiting for the metals to finally roll over.

  17. Christian

    ERX — Consolidating in a triangle for the next leg up. WITHOUT ANY VOLUME —- Unacceptable πŸ™‚

    1. jacob2

      OIL: WTI crude oil futures were unable to hold at $50/b during the peak demand period this summer. Market conditions likely to deteriorate in the weeks and months ahead as the refiners retool a seasonal week time for oil, if refiners get shut down in the gulf crude will really back up (own a lot of energy old turkey) but think we get a retest of 42 sometime this fall.

      1. Christian

        JACOB — This is what we call a “Swing Trade”. I don’t give a damn about weeks and months ahead.

    2. Bluebellkid

      Actually you don’t want any volume during consolidations. When a stock has bottomed it is a good sign to see the volume dry up indicating you have run out of sellers and that can set the stage for a move higher. ERX could very well move back up to the 50 day but as I have pointed out before the 50 day has been resistance now since late January.

  18. JJHarmen

    Gold and silver are just following the dollar up and down today with a;most perfect inverse correlation.

  19. Bigdaddy

    One of these days, gold is going to gap up $50 and all the bears will be left in the dust with DUST in their portfolio. Hahaha!

    1. dboz

      GOLD BUG dreams. Not saying it couldn’t happen, just saying it probably won’t happen. Closest we can was the TRUMP election and that got the INSTANT fire extinguisher.

  20. Troy

    4 day rule and 4 day corollary on the XLE in effect if it holds.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XLE&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p42982071636

    ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
    4 day rule and 4 day corollary

    The 4 day rule and 4 day corollary can also be used to spot tops and bottoms of long intermediate trends.

    The 4 day corollary states that after a long intermediate move the first day counter to the trend following 4 or more days in a row often signals a trend change.

    The 4 day rule states that 4 or more days in a row counter to a long intermediate trend is often confirmation of a trend change.

  21. Kruzoe

    There is good money to be made on Monday. There may be a gap up (or down) which will catch most off guard. The right guess means good money in the bank. I plan to enter either Nugt or Dust 15 mins before close and drink hopium over the week end.

    1. Nada

      @Kruzoe So which one did you go with, DUST of NUGT?? Don’t come back here Monday and tell us the one that is green πŸ™‚

  22. zbigkid

    Gold and miners look like they are topping again. Just like the last time $1300 was approached on gold.

    Bitcoin continues screaming higher, so if anything, people are locking in major profits on BC, and then dumping those into gold. Once BC does its inevitable reversal, and it will be huge, gold is done, silver is done, and miners are toast for years to come. I’m not going to forecast the top on BC because insanity and mania have taken that one over, which is virtually the same for the US stock market, although its a bit more tempered by its gargantuan size compared to Crypto’s, which is teeny tiny.

    So gold, and to a lesser extent silver, are merely benefiting from the gamblers who are seeking to lock in gains to something tangible that they can touch, and hide from the gubmint. Its actually a pretty beautiful money laundering scheme. USD=>BITCOIN=>GOLD. (substitute any other currency for USD).

    If I have to explain how and why, then you’ll never GET IT.

  23. Gary Post author

    The dollar has confirmed another failed daily cycle just like I predicted.

    Add another burrito to the stash. πŸ™‚

    1. Christian

      Oooooh please, you didn’t actually have the balls to take the bet, so you only get half a burrito πŸ™‚

      GOLD however did not get the memo, and is just sitting there like a limp d*ck.

  24. Spanky

    Closed with an ugly doji in GDX today. What an absolute crap daily cycle. GDXJ has been even more pathetic. The silver miners the absolute worst. Isn’t that the exact opposite one would expect coming out of a supposed ICL???

    Where is the smart money? Shorting miners in all likelihood, unfortunately. This entire rally off the July lows has been feeble and ugly. More mindless churn with a downward bias incoming.

  25. Spanky

    Candy from a baby… Another flush incoming? Or is this time different?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SIL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p53239443663&a=541281661&listNum=1

    Hate to be so bearish, but my god this sector sucks balls.

    Didn’t really think we would need a January 2016 style gang rape of the miners, but to me that is what it looks like is about to happen. It may be short is duration, but you can guarantee its going to bend longs over for one last laugh. Christian will be loading the boat while longs like me are wondering whether the bull is dead.

  26. Bigdaddy

    I currently have five positions and up on every one of them. Is that skilled trading or what? The wife is pleased and so is the dog. No cussing today. A big drop is coming for the SM. Trust me.

  27. Bigdaddy

    Pedestrian says this earlier today : “Bollocks! The dollar is going up Gary.” The dollar index then goes on to have one of it’s worst days of the year. Sorta like his call made about a hundred times for gold to go down to 1200. Then he criticizes me because I think charts are horseshit! How are those charts working for you Pedo? Goof.
    Sassy, if you are reading this, you don’t need to study nothing, just do the opposite of Pedo and you will do okay.

    1. Pedestrian

      Yes BD, the dollar is going to continue its rise once more and I can say that with no reservations whatsoever and no doubt in my mind. That is to say I am 100% certain (no matter how bad of manners it is to say that on a gold blog). We have reached the point of reversal and should see that take place next week as both currencies consolidate their respective tops and bottoms. It is going to sink your long gold trades if you ignore the warning but do as you like (since you are always smarter than everyone else here according to you).

  28. Bigdaddy

    Now it seems that zkotpen is gone too or maybe he is just sitting on the toilet all day relieving himself from a buildup of horseshit. The guy has been wearing down the scroll wheel on my mouse.

  29. Bigdaddy

    I gotta go. The wife wants to us to go shopping. You know, men just absolutely hate it when the wife wants us to go with them because you just know it ain’t going to be to the friggen dollar store. Nope, it’s always some place where nothing is ever on sale. Check in later folks.

  30. dboz

    UGA just broke out huge on the daily on monster volume. Assuming it’s hurricane related but worth checking out.

  31. Kruzoe

    Well, I took a small position in Dust, 2K at 25.18. I may be a few days too early but wanted some skin in the game. Odds of making money is a coin toss, meaning decent.

  32. zkotpen

    Gary —

    What up? No mention of the YEARLY CYCLE for 2017???

    I heard something about YCLs in 2015 and 2016.

    2017?

    Am I to imply that you’ve CHANGED YOUR MIND and are downgrading the July low in gold from YEARLY to INTERMEDIATE??

  33. zkotpen

    I did OK today, effectively long gold (short USDJPY) — two day trades, with stop loss, one small one while America slept, and the other in the morning.

    Demystifying the Forex world — so far, so good. But lots of work to go!

  34. zkotpen

    Christian,

    “CAREFUL β€” A RISING WEDGE within an uptrend is normally indicative of a bearish reversal.”

    This is the ending diagonal I mentioned last weekend. The spike down in gold fit within the rules by remaining above 1270. We shall see if gold exceeds 1307 next week — that would invalidate the ending diagonal scenario, if I recall the arithmetic correctly from last weekend.

    1. zkotpen

      Also, I would warn huge caution in your chart. The reversals from ending diagonals are often at least one degree higher than the fractal in question. So if the daily cycle ends in an ending diagonal, that often has implications for at least the intermediate cycle as well, and perhaps even higher, in this case yearly.

      …all of which remains to be seen 1307?

      … I also recall posting about a month ago about GDX topping at 23.87…

  35. Goild

    Lenapowich,

    Yes, I am the one to preaches every so often to be aware of falling knives.
    They are my pet peeve even though I love dogs.
    I must master them by correctly being short when they fall and long when they bounce.
    A way to deal with problems is to talk about them.

    JNUG felt today in a matter of seconds from $22.80 to $21.30, this is $1.5.
    I had 3K JNUG shares. The feeling is not particularly pleasant.
    How do you cope, how do you deal with such events?

    Hopefully MegaMInd sold his 100K JDST shares at or near the JNUG bottom.

    I will frame today’s candles so I do not forget this lesson.

  36. Goild

    Manipulation pervades…

    JNUG’s raising with little volume just before the open and subsequent drop, rise, drop, and rise show it.
    The manipulators said, “let us start the day by making lots of money and waking up every one, we decide what happens in the world of money.”

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL and what happened in 2004? That’s right a bull market was getting started.

      Folks people don’t exit in mass at tops. They exit in mass at bottoms.

      This isn’t a sign that a bear market has begun. It’s a contrarian sign that we still have lots of room to go yet. When we do finally get the top everyone will be ultra bullish, no one will see any way the market can ever go down…. just like investors feel about bitcoin right now. Just like they thought real estate could never go down in 2006. Just like they thought tech stocks would never go down in 2000. And just like they thought oil was going over $200 in 2008.

      I’ll say it again. 10,000 will be a piece of cake. 20,000 isn’t out of the question when we get into the really nutty phase.

  37. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Ur manipulation fantasies are turning out some pritty awesome hallucinations for you, dude. Of course, I doubt they add to your lunch money account… pretty trippy stuff, mate!

  38. zkotpen

    I’m getting the impression that GBPUSD reached its YCH in early August… it is leading EURUSD and USDJPY/gold by about 2 months, at least it was at the previous YCL late last year.

    Now looking at about 1.205-1.21 for EURUSD… It won’t be Monday, but won’t be too much longer, either. YCH in Euro, YCL in dollar.

    I believe I am hereby breaking ranks with the guy in the video πŸ˜‰

  39. Goild

    Zkot,

    How do you explain the rise in gold price just before the open with little volume?
    And then the sudden deep drop?
    Someone created it, a human, that is manipulation, not hallucination.
    Have a nice weekend!

  40. Goild

    Gary,

    I am not sure what argument you have to say that the SM market can reach 10,000 or 20,000.
    Currently it is at ~2442. You are calling for a factor of 4 to 8.
    These numbers are quite unrealistic.
    It would mean the US GDP would grow by the same factors. If the GDP increases 10% a year it would take 7 years to double.
    As a trader one needs to adhere to reality as much as possible.

    The market currently is significantly overvalued. Below are some useful links.

    It is time for a good SM drop.

    https://seekingalpha.com/instablog/839735-katchum/1558651-correlation-total-stock-market-index-vs-gdp-how-to-value-dow-jones

    https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_total_market_capitalization

  41. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Is that methodology you use to draw your conclusions scientific?

    Last time I checked, the market was not only indifferent, but also impartial.

    Two possibilities: Buy or sell.

    Two possible outcomes: Profit or loss.

    Two ways to make a profit: Buy low then sell high; or sell high then buy low.

    If you have a big stack, you are going to try to achieve profits any way you can.

    Remember the technical analyst and the old school CEO in ‘the Zone? That example was used to show the UNCERTAINTY of all markets. (The market in the example was soybeans). But I take another read from it, in addition to the intended meaning. That CEO is the face of one of yours and Gary’s “manipulators”. His tech analyst told him exactly where support and resistance lines were, from a technical standpoint. So when the market made its way down to support, the supposed technical “low of the day”, where it was “supposed to” bounce and head back up to resistance, the CEO verified this with the tech analyst, then immediately dumped 2 million bushels at market price. He hired a tech analyst, and saw an opportunity to make a profit. In that case, once selling pressure abated, he dumped a huge load on commodity onto the market, causing price to fall rapidly, so he could get back in — quickly or eventually, as the case may be — and buy back at a lower price. He sold high and bought back low, a legitimate way of making a profit.

    In a poker tournament, the big stack has one strategy and one strategy only: Aggression. If they don’t use aggression, the other smaller stacks will chip away at them, and put their lead in jeopardy. So if the big stack bets aggressively pre-flop every hand, are they manipulating the poker tournament?

    The answer is: Who cares? As long as they follow the rules. And last time I checked, nobody invited me to be investigator, prosecutor, judge, jury, executioner, AND subjective press reporting the matter of whether or not they are following the rules.

    So all I’m left with is: What is my best strategy, that gives the the highest probability of consistently, successfully buying low then selling high, and/or selling high and then buying low.

    If I perceive myself as capturing some manipulator red-handed and publish a headline about it, I don’t think that will contribute one penny to my bottom line.

    Curious you would ask such a question. After all, I came here today to share some observations about the currencies I watch: Gold, JPY, EUR, GBP, USD, and ZAR. You know, the stuff that people can profit from!

    Have a scientific, intuitive weekend!

  42. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    It looks like you and I are both in disagreement with the guy in the video πŸ˜‰ about the future of the currencies: Gold, JPY, EUR, USD.

    Although on my side, I don’t see it as certain, rather, highly likely, and my reasons are math & patterns based. (Sorry G-man — that April low in EURUSD will go down in the books as “Intermediate”). My figures suggest the move up in EURUSD (the market I most recently looked at) since last December is running out of steam (decreasing momentum on a yearly cycle basis).

  43. chrisG

    Well, its has been a long time since i was highly critical, highly insulting. But today its time again. This Goild is stupid beyond stupidity!!! Is he dumb, deaf, or blind??? Gary said 10k, 20k many times. And a baby would have heard gary talking about Nasdaq. Not SPX !!!! What 4x , 8x factor. Its only a 2x, or up to 3x factor.

  44. zkotpen

    For the first 7 months of the year, Euro was king of the big currencies, followed by GBP. The Yen/gold were up, but the Yen kicked and screamed and railed against every market force trying to push it up. USD was in the dumps for most of those 7 months. Gold just went along with the Yen, in a sort of neo gold standard.

    Then August brought a weak, 3-week rally in the USD (wave 4 of C of yearly cycle decline is what my work suggests). During most of August, Yen/gold were on top, followed by USD, Euro was sideways/down, and GBP was the big loser. Just as GBP bottomed 2 months before the other currencies (vs. USD), so too does it appear to have topped in early August for its YCH, before the others, though Yen/gold have yet to confirm.

    Once the USD rally ended last week, Euro is back on top, but I believe its reign is in its late stages, as Pedestrian suggests.

    If the ending diagonal plays out in gold, I believe that will be the yearly top for gold as well. Yen appears to be pointing toward a similar unspectacular YCH.

    Thus: EURUSD is likely to top in the coming week(s), as is JPY/gold, and DXY to bottom. GBP has already topped. The same old pecking order from most of 2017 is back, but only for a little while.

  45. Goild

    Good morning,

    ChrisG,

    Thank you for pointing out that Gary refers to the Nasdaq which is at 5824.
    Then it is a factor of 2X or 3X, and the same comment applies, it is unrealistic in the next few years.
    There is no super bubble, the bubble is bursting already.
    Have a nice weekend.

    1. jacob2

      Agree. End of year rally 2600 S&P and that’s about all folks. At 8.5 years the bull is old and ready to fade off into 18’s sunset. Been a hell,of a run. The time to have gotten uber bullish on the nasdq was early 13 not now. Putting in a market top is a process and not an event. 10 k/20k nasdq hyperbole reminds me of all the to the moon calls on gold. How did that work out?

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL the last bull ran for 20 years if you count from the PE ratio low in 1980. If you count from the nominal low in 74 then it was 26 years.

        We might not even be half way through, although I tend to think the bull has been accelerated by QE. Either way it needs to end the same way all bulls end. With massive public participation and a bubble.

  46. Goild

    Zkot,

    My take is that many people trade the probabilities. Lacking any other information this is the best way to swing trade.
    However, while I pay some attention to probabilities, my preferred trading mode is to have a high degree of confidence that I am right. In day trading such degree of confidence often comes and that is how one makes money.
    Even if one is wrong, the issue is how one reacts to being wrong. This separates novices from seasoned traders.
    Have a nice weekend.

  47. zkotpen

    Goild,

    Nice meeting you here for telepathic coffee πŸ™‚ And thanks for changing the song on the turntable to a more pleasing selection πŸ˜‰

    How uncanny your observations! Last week I finally began the test at the end of ‘the Zone, “coincidental” with my moving into year 6 of trading. Seems I had to shed the beginner’s skin. More like pass the beginner’s baton — and didn’t even know I was holding a baton, until a beginner came along and grabbed it out of my hand. They did so in response to 3 questions I asked them:

    Q: How much of your portfolio is at risk?
    A: Not sure, what do you mean, I guess all of it is at risk.

    Q: What is your exit strategy?
    A: No real exit strategy, I guess hold for maybe 2-5 years, depending on the stocks’ performance and my needs for cash.

    Q: How did you come up with your probabilities?
    A: Advice of a friend of the family who is a trusted financial manager, made logical sense to me, I like the company’s product.

    This bothered me for a few days, affecting both my analysis and trading, actually. I thought about it incessantly. Then I woke up Friday feeling relieved. My beginner friend had given the same answers I would have given 5 years ago, if somebody had asked me — but in their own words. I felt as though a huge weight had been lifted off my chest — very liberated!

    Ready to get back into action Friday, then, and made 2 profitable day trades. But they were gnarly, more difficult, and less profitable than they should have been. Sounds like somebody trading something like NUGT, only with more leverage applied!

    The reason: JPY, gold, and miners have been lethargic all year, whereas USD has been down all year. When the dollar is rallying, it seemed the yen was taking a beating, plus, the USDJPY chart patterns are fairly regular, like gold’s. So I opted for USDJPY as the vehicle of the day/week/month.

    The only problem was, (1) GBP made a YCH in early August, making it the choice currency during USD rally, not JPY/gold; and (2) USD stopped rallying on August 16-17. Subsequent movement looked sideways from a distance, but on careful observation, it was not. It was back to the same ol’ theme prevalent for 2017: EUR up, USD down, JPY/gold up, but dragging their feet, twisting, and screaming along the way like a spoiled child.

    So that’s how I handle imperfections. (I wasn’t actually wrong, since my trades were profitable, but they were not optimized, and caused me some unnecessary grief in execution). I figure it out, kinda like solving a puzzle, start to finish, hopefully over a weekend, and hopefully still in time to take advantage of it… and from the way my charts look, EURUSD has not topped for 2017 just yet, and I believe DXY is moving into its yearly cycle low. JPY/gold petering out into their YCH’s.

    1 week? 2 weeks to go?

    Palobar seems to have a better take on timing…

    … and speaking of puzzles, have you seen “The Accountant”? πŸ˜‰

  48. Kruzoe

    I wonder how many here think I would lose money on my purchase of 2K Dust at 25.18 on Friday late afternoon.
    Note: I am up about $80K this year on my Nugt/Dust purchases. So, I am not losing sleep on this latest purchase.

    1. victor

      I still maintain my short term view we’re going to 1335, after that I would sell. Still, for me it’s a risk that I’m not taking. Only 10% long in metal for now.

    1. Gary Post author

      The stock market is going to do the same thing as bitcoin and for the same reason.

      Trillions and trillions of currency units printed over the last 8 years.

    2. Cardio2

      Gary you also said gold would go to 1500 when you told everyone to get in last year in the 1300s right before it collapsed. Nobody should take your word as gospel as you are often wrong, especially when you start sounding really cocky and talking with great certainty.

  49. Goild

    Kruzoe,

    I would suggest to think of the $80K as if you would have lost them.
    Euphoria and over confidence also have a dear price in this business.
    Nevertheless congratulations on the profit and more especially on your clear mind!

  50. Cardio2

    Gary, you are often wrong when you are cocky. Recall you telling everyone to buy JNUG at 23 last year before it collapsed to 7 or whatever low it hit?

    1. Gary Post author

      Here’s the problem. Almost no retail traders have the patience to ever achieve the big money. I’ve said many times that before the bull is over JNUG will go to at least $500 split adjusted, and it’s going to. Probably even higher. But the problem is a huge chunk of those gains will occur during the final year, during the bubble. I would wager that none of you will have even the vaguest chance of hanging on long enough to score those gains. You get frustrated quickly and sell at bottoms. That’s just what retail traders do. There is a reason why small speculators are referred to as dumb money.

      Just look at the comments on the board. Almost everyone here is a short term trader jumping in and out of the market almost daily. How many billionaires do you know achieved that kind of success with that kind of strategy? I can answer that for you…none.

      Those people, assuming there are any (doubtful) that just hang onto to their JNUG position for the next 3-4 years until gold completes its bubble, will so massively out perform everyone else on this board that there won’t even be any comparison, and they will do it even if they bought JNUG at 23. They will score riches beyond most peoples dreams. It will be like buying bitcoin when it was just a few dollars.

      Now we are getting ready to enter the bubble phase in stocks. Actually I think it’s already started. It began with the reversal on election night. Seriously anyone with a lick of common sense has to realize the the end game to years of QE has to be another series of bubbles. We are doing the same thing we did in the late nineties and again in the mid 2000’s only this time monetary policy is on steroids. We have to get the same result. There has to be a bubble or series of bubbles.

  51. Goild

    Gary,

    Let us see.

    I bet you $1000 that the SM or Nasdaq will not double a year from now.
    Would you take the challenge?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll take that bet in a second. Let’s make the bet Nasdaq 10,000 by this time next year.

      1. victor

        Gary that’s a damn smart move to increase sign up’s with such a confidence. You should write a book when retire….

    1. Pedestrian

      I am not so sure Surf. Certainly over the shorter term I am looking for the dollar to rise once more. Longer term I would agree with you but the current chart has hints and suggestions that this particular cycle has not yet come to an end and in fact will probably be stretched. We should keep an open mind.

      Take a look at this sample chart published today by our friends over at Gold Tent.
      https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/Chart283Dollar.png

      First, what I want to point out here is the patterns on the TSI and MACD. You can see that in the past two instances of the dollar peaking it took about 3 years for the indicators to form a top. During this current topping period however we are just half way though (at an eyeball estimate).

      Secondly, (referring to the dollar chart itself now) during this current period we have seen the most recent top on the dollar exceeded the two prior peaks which were close to 100 so this indicates there is still another high as a good likelihood. Perhaps the dollar will merely double-top. I don’t know. But to my way of charting it is going higher because that’s what that kind of pattern indicates.

      Third, when we draw a resistance channel across the first two peaks on the dollar chart (1985 and 2003) the place where the line intersects with price shows that the dollar back-tested that resistance line in 2015 and then unexpectedly burst higher. A lot of traders lost money on that bet!

      This yearly chart is also dollar bullish as it has formed a crude triple bottom during the past 3 years and my expectation is that this current decline will see a bounce from the 200 rather than a failure at the support line (shown by the red dotted line).

      Just the fact the dollar broke out above its primary channel resistance in 2015 should be alerting us that something different is happening on this cycle. Had this been a gold chart rather than the dollar chart I guarantee we would all be leaping for joy given how damned bullish it looks.

      There are fundamental reasons behind my reasoning as well however those probably don’t have a place in a technical discussion. But to me its just too cut and dried that the dollar will keep falling and gold take off in harmony. Not quite yet anyway. We could have another year to a year and a half of a rising dollar trend before this is over and gold finally get its legs.

      Anyway, I am not trying to change your mind. I only want to point out there are hints that this dollar cycle is going to be a little different than the two prior instances.

      1. Pedestrian

        And also have a look at this weekly chart of dollar futures, Surf.
        http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=DX&p=w1

        To me what we are seeing in that topping process that extends from 2015 to present is the formation of an expanding wedge (megaphone top) but only the first two peaks have formed thus far.

        Right now the dollar is virtually sitting atop the 2016 support line pivot (low of 2016) and should it bounce as I anticipate we will know that this megaphone has one more leg up that projects to something like 1.10 after which it will crash back to planet Earth.

        If your idea is correct however, what we are looking at right now is three peaks of a fully formed megaphone and this really is the end of the line for the dollar since a continued decline from here will do irreparable harm to the bull case for this chart. We will know very soon. Probably by the end of this month. So this is going to be a real-time technical conclusion in action.

        Pass the popcorn! LOL!!!

        Personally, I believe from my chart reading that this particular megaphone has only completed two tops with the third about to get underway and if I am right then the gold bull market is going to have to wait awhile yet before it really gets started. If the dollar does go up it may require we entirely rethink the whole gold-is-in-a-bull-market thesis.

        It clearly matters a lot which way the dollar moves next week.

        My money is on a bounce.

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