441 thoughts on “Market wrap – Gold, Energy & Stocks

  1. Gary Post author

    The dollar has been very weak. Not at all like the rally out of an ICL.

    I think I’m going to win that burrito bet and the dollar rolls over into another left translated cycle and slices right through the 200 WMA just like it did the last two bear markets.

    We still need one more pop first though as the euro hasn’t quite broken its cycle uptrend line yet. It needs to do that to confirm the DCL before it can start the next leg up.

  2. Gary Post author

    Once stocks complete the DCL we will get a rocket shot to 23,000 on the Dow during the next daily cycle. That’s the point where we’re likely to get a larger intermediate degree correction.

  3. Bob

    Does anyone have an accurate read on where the long-term gold trendline is sitting right now. It looks very close but I can’t quite tell if we’re on it or slightly over it.

    1. mustang sally

      Morning Bob: There is a long term line from 2001 which it is backtesting right now, not to excited for long until that is taken out, this spike reminds me of june 12.

      ms

        1. mustang sally

          Bob: that’s a short term for me . Mable Markers has lines going back to the 1960, the line I am talking about is from 2001 and it was hit at the low in 2016, it is now backtesting the breakdown,

          MS

  4. Jimsee

    bigdaddy – soldnugt here too – 1300 nears – expecting a fight…love to buy gap close today but challenge rules prohibit it. holding all real miner positions though.

  5. Kruzoe

    Kim Kong vs Godzilla. Folks, we are witness to history right here, right now. And gold is responding in the right direction. Have we not seen this movie before?

    1. Gary Post author

      He has to enter the challenge. Until he does we have no idea what his returns are. Is he still way in the hole from all his previous failed short attempts? Will he make enough to recover on this run? Will he hold too long and get caught again when the cycle bottoms and the next leg up begins?

      Everyone has winning streaks and losing streaks. What matters is where you are at after a year. After two years. etc. Are you actually making long term gains or are you just taking one step up and one step down over and over.

  6. Don

    I think gold has lots of room to run yet. It is no where near being over bought on the weekly or monthly charts. However, any sign of cooling of tensions could drive gold south temporarily. Pullbacks should be bought.

  7. Don

    So, where’s Know Nothing Pedestrian? I have told you people a thousand times not to listen to him. This is the third time he has re-appeared, gets into bad mouthing gold and the miners and then they soar afterwards. Yeah, sure he did say that he thought gold MIGHT go up to 1275 before collapsing but he was just trying to have it both ways so he could say he was right all along. That’s how phonies operate. (AVI has mastered that art)

    Pedestrian will disappear again for a few months and come back when there is a new crop of readers that will get sucked into his believing his clever talk . As Mac pointed out, he doesn’t even understand the basics.

    I did not waver in my resolve that silver was going to go up and accumulated while everyone was waiting for the miners to take out the Dec lows (BD wasn’t waiting either…good for him)

  8. Don

    Here is an example of how Pedestrian works, Just 9 days ago he posted this:

    Pedestrian
    August 1, 2017 at 10:13 pm
    Time to fade silver……

    Gold too. We are going back down sorry to say.

  9. Don

    And the next day:

    Pedestrian
    August 2, 2017 at 10:43 am
    Have you been drinking? Maybe go back and read my posts again. I am calling for an imminent decline in both gold and silver (and the miners) which I believe will potentially set the stage for long entries after summer has ended. I also believe this current run in gold has almost ended so would not get long from here but rather prepare for a reversal back down.

    GDX is setting up for a decline, not the 6 cent rise that you just pointed out. Come the fall we might be in a good place to buy it back. I don’t know for sure of course but that’s how it looks to me right now if that big inverse head and shoulders on GDX holds.

  10. Don

    And the next day :

    Pedestrian
    August 3, 2017 at 12:02 pm
    I’m projecting JDST will eventually see 118 and change as this bear unfolds. It should be a memorable move if it pans out the way it looks right now. Almost a double.

  11. Don

    And three trading days later:
    Pedestrian
    August 3, 2017 at 12:12 pm
    Silver is in deep trouble here too if the dollar rally’s hard. The SLV chart implies a fall below 14 which will be devastating given all the technical supports that get smashed along the way and the implication that this ongoing bear market is far from dead yet.

    I am looking at adding to short positions. This is going to be too good to miss.

    So, those short positions must be very deep under water now….. better cover them Ped.

  12. Don

    So, those of you who still think Pedestrian understands the markets (like another know nothing Zkotpen), my advice to you is to you get the hell out of this game because you are going to lose big.

        1. Pedestrian

          Just Donkeys. Don got a lucky break this time and is using it to his best advantage but making an ass of himself in the process. Just days after I left those comments (which were based on technicals) we heard Kim Jong Un declare he would attack the United States in Guam with a nuclear weapon.

          No leader of any nation that possesses nuclear weapons has EVER done that.

          Gold has spiked on the news and stock markets are selling off.

          So this is not a case of misreading technicals on my part and being wrong as Don would like to portray but rather an exceptionally unusual event that has altered the charts. Don might like us to believe he had special insight. But he did not.

          Nobody did. Not on any other gold blog either. So ignore the clown.

          He is clueless.

  13. Spanky

    Assuming no massive reversal today and tomorrow, GLD is on target to hit the upper weekly bollinger band at this point currently at 123.45 and bending upwards.

    I would also expect SLV to tag the 50 WMA at 16.41 currently.

    Miners still haven’t reacted in a way to suggest they are off to the races. Two of my silver miners have been slaughtered by about 30% while silver has gone up 20%+. Another one of my miners, AXU reports today after the bell. Not even going to speculate what happens, but I’m not too optimistic.

    GDX and GDXJ still underperforming gld. I do see this as a warning sign, but I will concede that the ratio can stay flat or even go down as both miner and gold skyrocket (late 2007-March 2008). Also, note the following chart. If this resolves in GDX’s favor, it will be a very good sign for the sector.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX%3AGLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p61914993716&a=538939868&listNum=1

    1. Herman

      Spanky, AXU is a small developer, not really a good gauge on what is going on with silver. It has diluted a lot the last years. AG is one of the best, but of course has its company specific risk, as we witnessed the last few days.

    2. Don

      “GDX and GDXJ still underperforming gld.” Really? Today, GDX is up 1.8% and GLD is up 0.73% . In the past month GDX is up 7.2% and GLD 5.9%
      How do those numbers translate into under performance by GDX ? You could say that about GDXJ which is up 3.7% from one month ago but not GDX.
      The juniors will eventually catch up once traders realize that the gold rally is the real deal.

        1. Pedestrian

          The Donkey is itching for a fight today Spanky but you are on point. He is still the sites worst trader and too scared to enter the contest since he would be found out as the fraud he really is. But that’s what those types always do.

          So insecure he can’t even make a call of his own.

      1. Christian

        Agree with Spank The Monkey — Miners should be out shinning Gold by a mile!

        It will interesting to see how strongly they react when Gold finally drops into a DCL. That will be the ‘tell’ sign everyone needs to watch out for 🙂

  14. Herman

    He was right earlier on, but it is also key to adjust in time. I feared the possibility of an ICL, as these things can be brutal. So I waited for the level of confirmation that was enough for me. Got it yesterday.

    1. Nada

      You keep saying that he cost you money. That is BS my man. You are responsible for your trade – though its much easier to blame some guy on a blog site that you never met.

      1. Gary Post author

        Exactly. And If BD had listened to me months and months ago about shorting the stock market he could have saved himself lots of losses. He’s clearly lost a lot more trying to short than he’s made. He would have more money in his portfolio today if he had just followed that one simple rule.

        Don’t fight the Fed’s printing press.

      2. Bigdaddy

        Ok, Nada, you are right. Pedestrian didn’t cost me a dime. It was my naivety in thinking that he knew what he was talking about that cost me big. I was too trusting and foolish. Better now?

      1. Nada

        I will definitely admit that I thought gold was going into an ICL. Things were looking OK until that damn Trump tweet 🙂 Long or short, the cycle should be topping soon but its always a possibility it has a lot further to run with market selling off and geopolitical events. Gary provided the best trade idea and that is to wait for the next DCL before getting involved.

        1. Christian

          Actually.. I’m the one that provided that trade on the blog long before Gary did. I told everyone that IF Gary was right and that IF the ICL was in fact behind us, then the most prudent way to trade Gold was to wait for it to drop into a DCL.

  15. Spanky

    I will be very surprised if the miners just take off here and never look back. I’ll concede though that the potential energy has been building for a long long time (6+ months) and once the resistance is overcome it could explode and never look back. I still put that as a pretty low probability event on this daily cycle, but you never know. The fact that GDX is over the 200 DMA on its 5th attempt (!) in 8 months is a positive sign, there is no denying that.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p48515382352&a=538942313&listNum=1

    1. Bluebellkid

      GDX/GDXJ aren’t seeing much volume so with that missing I wouldn’t expect too much here. AG on the other hand appears to be staging a reversal this week and volume is kicking in – average daily volume is 4.09 mm and it has already exceeded that.

      1. Pedestrian

        AG fell just below its .62 fib so the bounce makes sense. Not sure if miners will hold up if the markets keep correcting though. Maybe that’s why they have been so lackluster the past few days.

  16. Nada

    @Dboz

    Nice play on that TVIX trade. I know you had to suffer a bit before it played out, but Trump had your back 🙂 Now the question is, does he have you vote in 2020?

  17. Goild

    It might be that gold’s rally is over.
    This is the time to start thinking of dust and jdst.
    Perhaps tomorrow or Monday would be a good place to short the miners.
    Wonder what Kruzoe and AT are planning.

          1. Pedestrian

            It could just be that miner buyers are unwilling since the mood has turned negative on equities in general. If that’s the case then miners might stage a strong bounce once this stock market correction is done. Actually its not technically a correction yet. Even in Europe that DAX is only down 8% or so since its peak.

    1. Spanky

      It’s a pity but you are probably right. That being said, playing with leveraged ETFs when we are so close to the apexes of so many huge triangles is pretty much crazy IMO.

  18. Steffmeister

    Holy smokes money is flowing into Steffmeister precious portfolio today 🙂 the brave move to sell Fission Uranium with a quick +30% into FR.T and Semafo was a good call.

    mmm so far so good, how long will this rally last?

  19. Spanky

    There is a gap on the $hui daily chart today and a black candle yesterday. If we were to just take off here, it would be very unexpected by me. It would be equivalent to Jaws pulling three barrels underwater.

  20. allthatglitters

    unless war with NK actually transpires, which is possible but relatively unlikely, gold will give back these fear trade gains. highly recommended to buy JDST here @ $62 and change.

    1. Steffmeister

      Relax Spanky this meister guy knows what he is talking about 😛 time is running out folks …

      Disclaimer:
      I am a beginner at this, only 2years of experience!

  21. RetireYoung

    War will not happen with NK. This is only posturing by both sides. NK does not build nukes with the intention of war. NK builds nukes to prevent their government from being overthrown.

    I am speculating that gold does not make a new high. This may be a good time to start rebuying JDST. I am currently in cash in my real account and 25% in JDST in Gary’s contest at cost of $61ish. We are nearing the top of the trading range, miners are underperforming, volume is not increasing, approaching the upper BB, and ADX is still below 20 and barely moving on the daily.

    1. Steffmeister

      No hopefully not, but a plane crash or two if history repeats … I am of course not wishing these things to happen but history does repeat in different wave lengths.

  22. JJHarmen

    It has been a while since the S&P has been down more than 1%. it’s still not down that much from the highs although it seems like everything is getting hit except for the miners.

  23. mustang sally

    Morning All, Short everything now as mentioned yesterday except the usd, using ndx as the proxy, marker at 5892 as the short was started there.

    MS

    1. Don

      The ratio of declining stocks to advancing is almost 1:5. I haven’t seen it that high for a very long time. What does that mean? Well, it’s not predictive. however it does tell us that the sell off is very broad based. I am betting that we have more SM downside yet to come. No sign of the PPT.

        1. Don

          Everyone knows I was referring to stock and ETF ratios. Big difference. Ped, are you really that stupid or are you just trying to be irritating? Your lack of understanding is astounding.

          1. Pedestrian

            So you are admitting ratio charts are valid?
            You should apologize to Spanky for calling his work useless eye-candy.

  24. Spanky

    The last time GDX’s 50, 100 and 200 DMAs were this tight to each other was back in late 2011, just as the bull market rolled over into an epic bear market, albeit accompanied by an extremely choppy top.

    Is history repeating, maybe in the opposite direction this time?

  25. MagnuM

    Congratulations (again!) to the gold bulls! Can you make it 3-in-a-row tomorrow?

    Us gold bears are getting squeezed reallll good! My final line in the sand might be $1,308 or so? May make one final increased short position if gold can get to $1,300.

  26. mustang sally

    Those watching the ndx, 5790 may be something to watch, if they can’t save it there, could go down for a ride. to 5400, that is if 5790 gives.

    Shorten Sally

      1. Bigdaddy

        What’s to be nervous about? Gold stocks are going to fly, in time, i’m sure. I just bought another 2000 shares of HGU at 13.92. Now have 3000 shares.

  27. Bigdaddy

    I left a lot of money on the table with Netflix. It was down to 167.60. Oh well, being short ties up too much money anyway, That pig FB is still not cracking hard.

      1. Pedestrian

        LOL!! Good catch Christian. Every other province has monthly medical payments. If I recall only Saskatchewan is 100% covered no charge. So BD really is Don’s best buddy. It all makes sense now. Donkey and Dodo are neighbors.

        1. Bigdaddy

          We do pay a health care premium but only because I make more than $50 thousand. It’s still dirt cheap at a thousand per year and It’s 100% coverage for hospital care and surgeries. In Texas, I believe it”s now about 5 times that rate and then they have to pay a deductible anyway. What a goddamm racket health care has become in the US.

          1. Pedestrian

            This may be the first time I have agreed with you on anything. But yeah, its a mystery why the Canadian system works so well at reasonable costs and health care is universally available at affordable prices for everyone. What they have done South of the border is unbelievable and almost bordering on a class system of haves and have nots. Greed seems to be epidemic among insurers and medical practitioners. Premiums are unconscionable and prescription prices insane. The nickel and diming on billings for every minor item borders on depravity but is more akin to how one is charged for services at a carnival than a hospital. Is it any wonder heart surgery and other major medical treatments are booming in India where foreigners are catered too in their medical tourism business. Dental is dirt cheap there too. Just a small fraction of what you pay at home. What Americans really need these days is a passport and visa to an affordable country and just boycott that greed-fest they have running there now.

        2. Bigdaddy

          If Don lives in Regina, that’s about 500 miles from here so yep, we meet everyday for coffee. Man you are an idiot. I ain’t wasting no more of my valuable time on you. I have some studying to do.

          1. JJHarmen

            BD, I have relatives that live in Calgary. Been there once, really nice city. You far from there? And you are right about our out of control medical costs here .

          2. Pedestrian

            That’s like a four hour drive BD. Unless you are a granny of course. I would call 500 km a commute on the prairies. You and Don should exchange emails. You are so much alike.

          3. Don

            Pedestrian: My God, I didn’t think it was possible for you to say something so intelligent. You proved me wrong. Well done! Hey didn’t you say you are from BC or am I thinking of someone else?

          4. HomerJ

            Calgary is one of the most soul-less and boring cities, on par with Winnipeg but with less natives drunk downtown. Trust me, I’ve seen all the major Canadian cities.

          1. Pedestrian

            LOL!..I meant no cash to put into the market. I was kidding of course. It is kind of amusing most here are Canucks though. Do we just enjoy online discussions more or is it because so many here are flush with real estate gains and their confidence is up.

            I have to admit I’m curious how many here are using Lines of Credit to play the markets or have cashed out of inflated homes and put some of the money to work in stocks instead.

            No way to survey that though.

          1. Pedestrian

            BD is probably from Medicine Hat. He is a Texan after all. Loves to be near a river, cattle country and oil rigs. Guessing he lives on a farm in the neighborhood with a dog and the wife.

          1. Bigdaddy

            Are you talking to me? I said that i wasn’t saying exactly where but southern Alberta and not to far from cow town. (calgary)

  28. Don

    The number of advancing issue continues to shrink….. a sell off into the close or a big rally ? The S&P really isn’t down that much and the DOW even less.

    1. Pedestrian

      Just what I was thinking. HUI is up 7 dollars in three days though and might just take out its primary resistance. I will have to bite my tongue on the bear case if that happens. Not a sweat though. I am neither in nor out at the moment but the current events seem to be turning gold pretty bullish.

  29. Nada

    Who bought the dip in the SM? I believe Gary’s downside targets in the SPX were met and then some. Normally, it would be ideal to do so, but with Trump and Kim Jong Un running their mouths, I guess its prudent to sit on the sidelines.

      1. Nada

        No I am still holding DUST in the contest. I missed the call on gold and I will have to live with that. From a technical standpoint, I don’t think I misread. I knew it was dangerous to be short gold due to geopolitical events. It has been landmine after landmine with metals for the bears. 2017 has gifted the bulls – the declines have been quick and the runs for the bulls have been LONG w/few shakeouts.

        With that said, I think we are too close to a top to sell here. I will wait for the next DCL/ICL.

  30. palobar

    Gold = 21-22 August
    Wheat = 17-21 August

    From the above dates, the one on Wheat is more important. The previous turning point on Gold gave us just a minor high. September will bring a much stronger turning point. Will Gold retest the 2015 low? Unless we take out the July 2015 high, that possibility is still on the table. Where Gold trades in the second week of October will be critical to that question. A high will reduce that possibility. In my view, one should already have a position in physical gold. You dont want to be chasing it in the high 1400-1500’s while you could have bought it in the 1200 area.
    ps. Many thanks to your previous comments

  31. Bigdaddy

    Facebook closed 20 cents above my shorting average. I don’t know how that is even possible. What are the odds?
    I will be adding up the day;s profits here in a bit so stay tuned for Bigdaddy’s big day!

  32. Pedestrian

    Going off the beaten track for a moment but I was just looking at South Korean stocks. So I looked up Samsung electronics (ranks 13 out of global Fortune 500 so its huge) and checked its chart. Ticker # is KRK:005930 for anyone interested as its a Korean listing. Anyway, it is putting in a topping megaphone pattern that has just breached to the downside so a steep fall is probable. That might be telling us something about the mood of investors over there right now. You Galaxy phone users might want to stock up on batteries or get your spare parts now since a real war over there will likely mean Samsung won’t exist once its all over given the Boy-Kim has said he would destroy Seoul. Probably goes for LG, Hyundai, and Kia too if you happen to own those vehicles. I just read that South Korea supplies some 40% of all LCD’s for the world so most smart phones, tablets and laptops will cost more in the future. It will be a disaster for the world if Korean industry goes offline for any length of time. But there will be winners too. APPL will take off higher if Samsung ceases to exist.

    Hey….wait a minute. You don’t think that…….naaaaw

      1. Pedestrian

        I wonder how long the ATM’s will go off if there is actually a nuclear exchange. Reminds me, I better stock up on grub and get extra bales for the horse. We don’t know the future but we could be heading back to the stone age soon enough. LCD’s will probably be the last thing on our minds if an EMP bursts in the skys overhead.

        1. Don

          Ped: When I made mention of how a war with NK might affect the markets, you accused me of trying to drive up gold, for my own benefit, with talk of a nuclear war ( I did not talk nuclear… you are always making up shit). Such an asinine accusation could only come from someone like you.

          Now you are all hot and bothered about a war and the ramifications and it is YOU talking about nuclear. Unbelievable. You are a truly a one of a kind asshole.

          1. Pedestrian

            No Don, your comment was made rubbing your hands together like what a great fat opportunity a big war would be for your portfolio of metals and that’s what I found despicable. Still do too. I don’t trade tragedy buddy but the subject matter is current and topical so I get my few seconds of posting time like anyone else.

  33. Bigdaddy

    Ok, here it is, today I made on sales …. $6451. That more than makes up for my losses before I got smart. Remember that I was playing with small sums before so the losses were not that huge. Now i am putting serious money into play and making much bigger bets.
    Here are my current holdings with average prices for those who might give a shit:

    SLV 500 at 15.44 closed 16.18
    FB 700 at 167.20 (short) closed 167.40
    SQQQ 500 at 28.33 closed 29.79
    USLV 500 at 12.49 closed 12.66
    SPXU 2000 at 15.28 closed 15.29
    HGU 3000 at 13.71 closed 14.06

    As you can see, i am up on almost all except that goddamm Facebook.
    All of these positions were posted within a few seconds of a fill so anyone who wants to check my numbers, feel free to do so. I don’t tell lies like some.
    I gotta go right now and get the dog out before he does his business on the floor. He’s looking anxious.
    I may be on later so check in guys (and ladies too)

  34. Don

    Homerj : If you thought Winnipeg was bad then you would hate Regina too. It used to be a fairly clean city but now we have a big immigrant population that just throw their garbage anywhere. Worse than pigs. I guess they are trying to make it look like the shit hole they come from. We also have lots of useless welfare cases here that don’t pay taxes and live off the system. At least they don’t riot and beat the crap out of white folks like what is happening in the big US cities. And, our cops don’t shoot first and ask questions later and we hope it stays that way.

    I am planning to move to BC in the near future, Kamloops is my pick. Hot and dry with no mosquitoes works for me.

    1. Nada

      “It used to be a fairly clean city but now we have a big immigrant population that just throw their garbage anywhere. ”

      Don, where are the immigrants from? Yes the US will have a race war soon enough. The tensions between whites and blacks are at all time highs. Like it or not, some folks in Hollywood are hell bent on mixing the races. Every other commercial on TV is a mixed couple – there is no doubt its deliberate.

      1. Don

        Nada: The immigrants are coming from every ass wipe country that you can think of. The ones from places like Vietnam or the Philippines are very good citizens and fit right in. The ones from Pakistan, Bangladesh, Middle East, are not so good and they are the ones that tend to use the outdoors as a great big garbage dump. It’s really disgusting.

          1. Don

            Since when naming a country become racist? Ped, I swear you are getting more ridiculous sounding with every passing day. You just have stop with the nonsense before no one wants to talk with you anymore and your wife leaves you. Get a grip my man, before it’s too late.

          2. Pedestrian

            You referred to immigrants as coming from ass-wipe countries. Clearly derogatory. You must be quite the superior Regina boy. Those people traveled across the planet to live next door to your sort but the best you can come up with after 3 decades in government is to retire in Kamloops because there is no mosquitos there.

            Holy f*ck are you ever unimaginative and boring.

      2. roadrunner

        “Yes the US will have a race war soon enough. The tensions between whites and blacks are at all time highs. ”

        Where do you live that you see these tensions? There will not be a black/white race war.
        FYI, it’s not Hollywood “mixing the races”. Hollywood serves a few functions; Make money, Distract the masses and feed the masses the “correct thinking”,

        1. Nada

          Anytown, USA. If someone from another countries makes a comment “At least they don’t riot and beat the crap out of white folks like what is happening in the big US cities” then not sire why it’s hard to see if living in US.

          As far as the cops shooting people. I don’t know the details of every shooting, but my guess 90% are because some jackass is not listening to instructions.

    1. Don

      I hate hockey. Not much use for football either and especially dislike baseball. Most people I know that love sports are in really bad condition from sitting on the sofa every chance they get, watching some game. Not this kid.

      1. Pedestrian

        Hates hockey, hates sports, hates immigrants, hates Pedestrian, hates Regina and mosquitos.

        We have a winner here folks. Give him a medal or something. He’s going to change the world!

  35. kinik007

    MS, I’m still short on Miners but I’ll reassess the trade tomorrow near the close. If there is a gap up and then a dump, a major topping tail or a gap down and hold, I’ll hold the position into next week. Almost any other situation I’ll take my loss and short Oil with DWT which had a major engulfing candle today, and maybe Copper using options which I think has topped out on the Daily Cycle and is maybe forming a topping tail on the weekly chart and has a MacD divergence on the weekly chart. By tomorrow end of the day is decision time, until then I’m cool.

    I have become more 50/50 on the Bull/Bear argument but what kept me in the trade was that the Selling on Strength in the last couple of weeks was crazy in Gold and GDX and not sold that the ICL was in. The theory was good until Trumps tweet and so in normal conditions I would have been 100% in with the short side but both Trump and KJU are unpredictable so I’ll execute some risk managment and don’t want to hold into the weekend where the loss could swell like crazy rather than take a reasonable loss for a 3x ETF.

    If we get more upside on the miners, I’ll short again at a better price and at the DCH and/or go all in again on the next DCL as Gary suggests.

    FYI: As if we don’t have enough Canadians on the board, I’m from Toronno (which is the correct way to say it, not ToronTO. And IMHO, the healthcare is awesome but we’re eventually not going to be able to afford it in the near future or it will still be free but shit. Ontario will be spending 50% of the provincial budget on it, not sustainable. Nevertheless it’s still better than the shit system you guys down there have esp with Obamacare

    1. roadrunner

      medical care and medical services are free in Canada? How do you build hospitals,train and feed doctors for free? Why that is such a good deal, we should just do that with every occupation and industry. I am sure you will love working for free.
      How much of the American system have you used to call it shit? Obamacare is shit, no doubt, But Obama care is primarily a wealth transfer, not about providing medical service. VA care is good/bad depending on where you live. like Canada. Medicare for all seniors is not bad, as good as anywhere in Canada. Medicaid for Gov’t assistance group is fair. They are all government programs.
      My insurance is through spouse employer. Top notch. Far superior to anything offered in Canada. Most employer provided insurance is superior to anywhere in Canada. And of course the Public Service. Most of those employees, at every level from Municipal to State to Federal have first rate medical insurance.
      You see, Americans have been fed lies about the “Canadian system” as Canadians have been fed lies about the US system.
      One thing is true. American consumers grossly overpay for pharmaceuticals as they subsidize the rest of the world.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Years ago when there was the big debate about the US having healthcare like Canada someone pointed out that MD Anderson in Houston had more MRI machines than in all of Canada.

      2. Pedestrian

        Nothing is free Roadrunner. Of course it comes right out of the tax nut and taxes are already too high and increasing. In general though they do a better job here with socializing health care. And before you get up in arms about the word “socializing” I just want to point out that every single government on the planet is engaged in one form or another of socialized medical services. It’s just a matter of degree. There are sacrifices or course. Doctor shortages for example and long wait times for surgery. Electives still cost you. Not perfect but nothing is and anyone who doesn’t like it is free to go elsewhere and pay for premium services out of pocket if they have the cash.

  36. mustang sally

    Evening folks, have to thank everyone for the great entertainment, slow at the home so this is great, as far as the market goes not biting this rise in gold yet, top of the channel again, those who like symetry look at march 2015, same set up and look at the results, marker 1260 is calling again.

    Shortin Sally

    1. Pedestrian

      You thinking TZA to 18.50 thereabouts and then a reversal? So maybe a little more gas in it tomorrow and Monday take the other side of the trade?

      1. Ex Nihilo

        Yes – the risk/reward is inverted at this point so I will be taking profits at that level. If I see the bullish context continue, I will put the position back on for another leg to the upside…

    2. mustang sally

      Howdy Nilo: Agree with you on the ndx, I have a marker around 5637, if it goes below could be the start down, and complete retrace to 4200

      Shortin Sally

  37. dboz

    So are metals going to pullback or just launch from here? Trying to decide do I buy miners here or wait and maybe get a big scare selloff after this bull trap (or was this a bear trap). Amazing how it works.

    1. Bob

      I don’t think gold has much further to go before turning – I’m out of metals, waiting for SM to start rising and/or gold to do a swing high and then try to figure out where the best return will be.

      1. Bob

        I’ll be curious to see how the inflation rate stats coming out tomorrow morning will impact. Last month – no change – and everything went nutty. So we’ll have to wait and see how the PPT will use it as an excuse to change things up this month.

  38. Steffmeister

    God Morgon igen 🙂

    I agree with Palobar, a bigger inflection for gold stox coming in September. However there is a risk/chance that Gary’s scenario will not play out as expected.

    I asked the wizard a question and of course he never gives you a straight answer, you have to interpret.

    “G-V rising. Making high 2 days from today … 12th August. Staying up after that.
    It remains high for weeks. More than a month. Now through and past end of September.
    August: Higher highs on that elevated plateau are 12th, around 20th and end of August into early Sept.”

    I interpret the situation as if gold will keep the gains and even rise further the coming month or 2, so yes I am bullish going forward!

    I am Swedish and we beat Canada in the final of the latest World Championship 😛

    No I am not 100% Swedish I am Skåning, we got a very weird accent and our own flag just like Quebecians and other Southerners
    http://www.svenskafans.com/image/7/64152/Matchtraumlff-i-Malmouml-paring-soumlndag.jpg

    A cross between the Swedish and Danish flag, to piss of the Swedish King!
    .

  39. butch

    Gold has broken through the upper trend lines of the triangles. Short term target 1385 , medium term target 1585 . Holding my December 1300 option calls , until the smart money begins to sell. Cowboy butch will try to notify when this occurs.

  40. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Great humor in seeing you go at it with Don… just when I thought we were gonna have a ménage à quatre (ou cinq ou peut-être six, avec le Grand Con et sa femme trophée?) with Po’witch there in Regina! But yeah, I could spot their pogrom a kilometer away.

    Have to say I don’t like the mosquitos. One of ’em bit me at the land crossing into Peru from Ecuador 7 years ago — I ended up in bed for 3 weeks. One minute, I thought my fever was gonna pass 42. The next, I was bundled up in winter coat, hat, gloves, scarf, all the blankets in my hotel room just trying to keep warm. No sir, don’t like the mosquitos,… but I love geckos… and cats, spiders, squirrels, birds…

    1. zkotpen

      … and since we’re on the subject of markets, have you ever looked at some ZAR pairs? Alex mentioned them a few months ago. Then last week, I noticed they were among the most volatile currency pairs this side of bitcoin.

      I’ve begun looking at USDZAR, and to an extent, EURZAR this week.

      Also led me to some indices of majors, which are available on tradingview. In addition to DXY, they have EXY, BXY, JXY, and I think the other four, each indexed to the other seven.

    2. Pedestrian

      Yeah Zkot, not sure what’s wrong with him. The guy got a hard-on for me a year back and has been riding my ass ever since for pretty much no reason. Typical bureaucrat. Seems like a bitter old man actually. I don’t mind dishing a little back but its tiresome and I have quit this site more than once because there’s nothing in it for me when trolls like him are online. But what can you do? The internet is the great equalizer where frustrated small people come to vent for their decades of being kept down in the place they so richly deserve. The cubicle clerks of Regina like him are here paying back everyone with an idea as punishment for their own long life of failures. And now he’s going to retire in Kamloops. Holy f*ck man. Total loser.

  41. zkotpen

    butch,

    “Gold has broken through the upper trend lines of the triangles.”

    I’ve been posting that those things were not sacrosanct since Gary first laid them out in late February. I suggested both would get taken out, with high probability.

  42. Alexandru Popovici

    ZKOT, yes, the rand has been a pretty good ride so far but no fantastic.
    I recommend you to take a look at:

    1) MXN: I am personally looking for an up-thrust above 18.1, then a quick decline to DCL (maybe through FOMC minutes on Wed) and finally landing on an entry on a daily swing low.

    2) EUR to deliver a bull trap on a very short DC begun yesterday and then to resume shorting it (I’ve had 2 attempts so far: stopped out of my shorts on a small loss at 1.1714 and then yesterday at 1.1783 after an entry at 1.1798)

    1. Pedestrian

      Just checked in on Asia and the Shanghai looks primed for another fall. The chart is not reassuring and if its any indication of what’s coming elsewhere there is more equity declines ahead. I will link it for you guys who know how to do you own technical read. As an example though, on the 5 year view you can see that the chart pattern for all of 2016 and 2017 is little more than a bear flag. If the Shanghai drops to 3000 as implied by the daily chart then its look out below time and I suppose that means gold is going on a hell of a ride. I hate to have been so wrong about gold recently but it looks like I am going to have to switch into the bull camp depending on what happens next. I have checked one indicator I use suggesting gold will pull back next week and then take another run much higher. The long bear market in gold may have finally ended thanks to Kim Kong of Korea and his idiocy in talking up nuclear war against the US.
      https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SHCOMP:IND

      1. Gary Post author

        If you pull up a long term chart you can see that gold, oil and stocks have all been going up together since early 2016. The effects of years of QE are starting to drive everything higher. Stocks will reach their bubble first, then it will flow into commodities.

      2. JJHarmen

        Pedestrian
        You haven’t made any mentioned of the losses you must have sustained while being so bearish on gold and the miners. Are you still holding on to your positions? I am just curious.

        1. Pedestrian

          Zero losses JJ. I have said many times already I was 100% out of metals all summer waiting for seasonal strength to return. Other than a brief day trade I am whole but preparing to get back in given how things have changed on the charts. I don’t discuss day trades here anymore since Gary and others seem to have such an objection to them. My record is excellent this year though.

        1. Gary Post author

          If it drips down into a DCL over the next couple of weeks you can’t be afraid to buy that dip. Gold is in the advancing phase of a new intermediate cycle. You buy dips during the early part of a new intermediate cycle.

    1. Christian

      I offered you a burrito bet a little while back [ie; the buck] but you didn’t have the balls to take it because you weren’t sure Mister All High & Mighty 🙂

      Are you shorting Gold here? Or are you gonna wait for the DCL..?

      1. Pedestrian

        So I am not buying any gold or miners today. My indicator says that we will get a relief rally in stocks early next week and presumably gold will pull back a little first taking miners back down a little. Truth is that the DOW never really bought the fear trade in the first place and since that’s where the biggest money (read smart money) is positioned I think its prudent to just wait until Monday and see what happens. This is always mixed feelings. You don’t want to chase trades higher but you don’t want to miss out either if there is a genuine breakout. My solution is to hold fire a little longer and see what the HUI does. Gary is right on one topic. Indecision can tear up both bulls and bears alike.

    1. Nada

      GM Goild. What’s your position today? Looks like gold is trying to top, but if we receive more selling pressure in the markets and or Trump tweets, then not so sure.

  43. kinik007

    Epic Pop and Drop on Gold this morning. It will be interesting to see how this plays out but the drop is very aggressive and with volume thus far. I like it and if this holds up until the end of the day, will make my decision to stay in my DUST trade into next week very easy as I’ve just started the contest a week ago.

    For all you guys who recently went long on the Gold stuff closed your trades and made money, congratulations. Well done. Always like to hear that people made money whether they did it day trading, doing short term or longer trades.

  44. Goild

    Hopefully this brief drop was a bear’s trap and that gold will tag $1300 today.
    If so JNUG may go beyond $19. Now I got 2K JNUG shares at $17.77.
    I was too chicken to keep the 24K JNUG shares.
    Good trading to all.

  45. kinik007

    1st 10 min candle is in on GDX and we have 9.2m shares traded. We averaged way less than 4m for the last week. Take it for what you will but things are rumbling IMHO.

    1. kinik007

      That is very weird, my charting software has updated the first candle down to 3min vol. Nevertheless, we’ll see what happens at the close. Now back to work.

  46. Herman

    There is buying on weakness in GDX and GDX so far. Would be disappointing if we are done here, would be nice if things got a bit more scary to the upside 🙂

  47. Nada

    I am not so sure about the DCL being struck and/or top for gold. If Trump was not a twitter, then I would agree but for now he keeps firing off comments.

    1. Spanky

      Lots of indicators showing this across the PM sector. The thing is, the initial move, while large and maybe even sustain for a week or two, might just be a headfake.

      I still do advocate taking an unleveraged partial position, long or short, based on one’s technical/fundamental analysis before the breakout and just set your stop super tight and be willing to rebuy/reshort if your stop is hit. If we are close enough to the apex of a triangle consolidation, the odds of you being whipsawed more than once or twice is low.

  48. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Interesting observation on China.

    FXI looks like it completed it’s “intermediate” top on 8/8 — so much for their superstition LOL — likely a yearly top as well. And of course a “daily” top.

    But one half step below the “daily” cycle looks like it is gonna give a bounce — after which the big time 垃圾 dump can begin!

    1. Nada

      I am not so sure. I am not seeing the following through in miners. It looks like gold is trying to top. You certainly could be correct in your call, but it does not seem like a good r/r at this level. Christian/Gary made the right call, wait for the DCL.

  49. Bigdaddy

    This horseshit stock rally is just pissing me off. I am taking Mutt out for a walk and hopefully when i get back things will be better. I could have got out of FB this morning with a small profit and didn’t. I’m an idiot sometimes.

    1. Nada

      Its called greed and we are all guilty of it BD. I know its boring, but with shorts its best to take profits quickly in this market. SPX is at resistance on the 50ma, but with a break above, I will agree w/ Gary’s call on a DCL.

  50. Don

    Dennis Gartman has said the stock bull market is over. Normally, that would be a sign that the market is heading higher in the near future but this guy is wrong so often that maybe it’s time he got one right.

  51. Don

    Heavy weights like Boeing, Apple and MacDonalds are doing the heavy lifting this morning. MacDonalds is a puzzle to me. I can’t believe people still eat their crap.

      1. Don

        Christian: Do you think that sausage is real? You aren’t concerned with how many chemicals they use to make it look like a sausage? The raw product would probably make you sick. I see colon or stomach cancer coming your way buddy.

  52. Spanky

    FWIW, SLV has a golden cross on the hourly chart. In the past this has almost always been associated with significant additional upside follow through for at least a few weeks.

  53. Goild

    Nada,
    As you know I sold my 24K JNUG shares day before for a good profit but left on the table about $24K.
    Too much risk and chicken. I figured that yesterday and today so far were good days so every dip would be rescued.
    I got lunch money yesterday and today more less without any stress. I know that now we are in a critical stage and anything can happen. Most likely gold will continue up.

    1. Nada

      Yes, the bulls are not backing off. The retail bulls are buying every dip. Trump and Kim Jong Un are two very unique and headstrong individuals that will most likely keep gold elevated until a big seller takes profit.

  54. Spanky

    For a stock like AXU (which is typically moving up and down like an EKG pattern) to be stuck in such a narrow range for such an extended period is unheard of. Extreme action IMO. Get ready for explosive action soon, up or down.

  55. Spanky

    On the weekly charts across the PMs and coincidentally the yen, the 50, 100 and 200 WMAs are converging in a surreal manner. Expect confusion and mayhem in the next few months IMO. Epic trends are coming over the next year.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p06688571680&a=539096044&listNum=1

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p33195088987&a=539096743&listNum=1

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p69865458334&a=539096787&listNum=1

    1. Nada

      Of course. Every little goldbug in the world is hoping little Kim fires off a rocket this weekend. Top or not, at everyone we know smart money hands retail the bag. Too late in the cycle to being buying here.

      1. Pedestrian

        Agree with that Nada (hope I don’t regret the decision but I also hope even more sane heads prevail in the halls of power). Don’t you wonder btw why the war hawks don’t just put a billion dollar price tag on little Kimmy’s head? Seems like a much cheaper solution to the problem than an actual war. Maybe a billion is too small an amount. How about 10 billion in immediate emergency and humanitarian aide if the generals in Kimmy’s army give him a bullet as a gift.

  56. Lenapowich

    GDX made a higher high today so that means it’s in an uptrend, right? I decided not to buy GDXJ and bought more GDX a few minutes ago. I got in at 23.01. Wish me luck!

  57. Spanky

    You can’t deny the the striking similarities between AXU 2010-2012 and AXU 2016-2017 so far, pretty much everything is identical except the MACD, FWIW, just thought is was interesting.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&yr=9&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33010341736&a=539103337&listNum=1

    If it were to play out the same as back then you would expect AXU to make a run up to the 50 WMA in the next few weeks and then roll over hard.

    Even if this is all just bearish fantasy talk, one would expect a fakeout either down to the 100 WMA or up to the 50 WMA, before reversing, to throw as many bulls/bears off as possible. Ugh!

  58. Don

    Four out of the big six are up over 1% today. Short covering, in my opinion. Perhaps we will get a positive close today but I doubt it. More downside is coming next week.

  59. Don

    Ped: How close to Regina are you? Maybe we could meet up some time for coffee. I am curious to see if you are really are an ass or if that’s just your online persona.

        1. Don

          Actually Ped, you really don’t think I am an idiot at all. It’s more likely that you just don’t like it when someone calls you out when you are trying so hard to sound smart.

        1. Don

          That’s why I make money in the markets while you pretend as an armchair trader. You don’t fool me for a second (or anyone else that has been on this site for a while).

          1. Pedestrian

            You haven’t made much in the past given what you claimed to be buying. Mostly losses far as I could figure. Your SPXS bear was up a whopping 4% this week so you are still deep in the red on your market short.

  60. Jimsee

    china saying it will deter regime change is a bad sign – a public announcement – way not typical chinese if they meant it – KJU may be in real trouble – those sanctions against russia are the real deal here – perhaps KJU is a pincer movement to apply pressure to China as russia’s energy partner backup plan. I fchina eliminates KJU and settles down NK the pressure point is gone.

  61. Nada

    @Lenapowich Look at the volume. Yes, miners made a new high today, but there is no follow through “so far”. You have to ask yourself, is this the place I want to get long? You already had a position, so I am not sure why you would add at a potential topping point.

    With that said, the cycle gurus have varying opinions. Chartfreaks is saying that we had a DCL a few days ago. Gary says it was a HCL and some like goldpredict think the ICL may be in front of us – but from his own admission, that theory is in a precarious spot. Personally, it looks like Gary got the ICL correct, so his HCL has the most value in my book. I like goldpredict, he is very cautious but he missed the ICL last Dec and it appears he has missed the ICL once again.

    1. Pedestrian

      Looks to me like the HUI will likely end the day right on the damn resistance line drawn since the February peak until now. Over that line and mine stocks should take right off. Failure here means we get a little more corrective action.

    2. Christian

      Yeah I was kind of busting his balls last night. He works hard but I told him that he was ignoring the writing on the wall and that ‘tunnel vision’ was the best and quickest way to blow up your portfolio. I asked if he could provide scenario#2 in his weekend report. Let’s see what he comes up with…

      It’s unfortunate but his analysis of the Market lacks that intuitive side that separates the boys from the men 🙂

  62. Don

    Gary: Triple tops are actually quite rare. I don’t think gold is going to reverse back down after getting near the 1290 level for the third time since April. It may back of a little but should punch through in the next week or so if not sooner. Most likely it will be made to appear as a failure to launch.

  63. Don

    XIV and VXX are both down due to backwardation among future contracts. This is not a common occurrence and means that players are expecting further volatility of the VIX for at least the short term. That doesn’t mean that they are always right.

      1. Pedestrian

        Not my trendlines. Those you see are generated automatically by the site. You have to do your own work on it but I just assume you talented chartists know what to look for in support and resistance channels without me having to tell you. This thing has double since I was touting it last year. It was a trade Gary had put up and I started following it pretty closely and its been a success. Not sure why he dropped it. Anyway, use the light blue line as your reference and run the parallel off the two peaks in June and July. Looks better that way I hope and the channel is a good fit. does not mean it will work of course but we are at the support line now and to my eyes thats a buy.

    1. Bluebellkid

      LABU is still in the lower half of the weekly trading range so not likely to be “rolling” again – doesn’t mean it cant happen but it would be better to see a weekly reversal and it close at the upper end of the weekly trading range and have above average volume confirming the move.

    1. Christian

      Gold and Silver could be topping and dropping into a DCL, as mention by Gary. I would tend to agree.. although I think we might get one more push up.

      Ps: You’ll definitely want to load up when we hit that daily cycle low though.

  64. Nada

    Yes not looking like today is a good day to call the DCL. Selling should increase towards the close as no one wants to be long with Kim potentially test firing a rocket over the weekend.

  65. Jimsee

    silver closed > 17 on crimex , my ‘fundamental’ indicator for gold is testing it’s yearly high, has made a new high every month since march. fundamental backdrop improving…short tempered bulls…bears slobbering…monday should be interesting. good weekend all.

  66. Don

    Yesterday it was the gold seniors on the move and today it is the juniors turn. I don’t see the gold sector going back down in the near future. The bulls are getting shook out by the lack of out performance that they think should be happening. My advice is to hang on and ride out any possible pullback which may or may not occur as Gary and others are expecting.

    1. Pedestrian

      Or maybe a diplomat like Trudeau will offer a Olive branch to little Kimmy and peace will break out over the weekend screwing all the desperate gold bulls in the process. Stranger things have happened. When the main parties cannot dialogue it usually takes an outsider to intervene and get common sense rolling again.

  67. Kruzoe

    Whew, it was touch and go for a while, the difference between kobe steak and dry bread. Finally, eked out a $780 late lunch money. Monday is another day. Good day, mates.

      1. Spanky

        Lots of mixed signals! I have taken an absolute a$$whipping in EXK and AG the last 2 weeks. But GDX is about to signal the all clear, and the hourly, daily and weekly chart action seem bullish. And my AXU has just flatlined.

        1. Pedestrian

          Sorry to hear. I mentioned yesterday that AG had done a .68 retrace so maybe yesterdays bounce is for real. On the daily chart it almost looks like an overshoot to the downside. Kind of reminded me of the gold chart back in December 2015. Remember when it took that last dive and drove the bulls into paralysis. And then it just soared in March.

          Anyway, keep up the great charting. I appreciate your analysis.

          1. Herman

            You are a copycat, passing on my comment on AG as yours. Plus, I mentioned the 78% retracement level; there is no 68% level.

          2. Pedestrian

            Not at all Herman. It was your comment that got me checking so thanks for mentioning since it was a good catch. All the credit is yours. I was trying to do numbers in my head but thats not always the best idea. Just looked though and it fell pretty close to the .76 retrace which is good enough to get me interested.

  68. JJHarmen

    Gary says we should wait for a correction before buying gold and the miners. That all is good but what if there is no correction? How does one get in then? If gold is in a bull market, doesn’t it make sense to have a position on now and add to it if it does go down? I have GDX and feel comfortable no matter what happens.

    1. Spanky

      Buy a small position if you are feeling left behind. like 10-20% and just be satisfied with that until the next clear cycle low. And for god’s sake don’t buy some 3x ETF now.

      I have held my miners (full position) since mid 2015. It has been one hell of an emotional rollercoaster.

    2. Christian

      Sounds like you’ve already answered your question 🙂

      I always start with a CORE position.. and it’s probably the only reason I made a shit ton of money trading DUST in June.

  69. palobar

    I understand that many of you guys are very experienced with trading the leveraged ETFs (DUST, NUGT). If the chart at investing.com is correct, the all-time high for NUGT was around the 18000 level. I have no doubt that Gold will at least test it’s 2011 high. I have no idea where NUGT would be if Gold trades at $2000. After reading some material about these ETFs, I understand that these instruments might not be suitable to hold for the long-run. If NUGT would reach those prices, I would not mind:). I would appreciate your views. I want to sure that when the time comes, I will use the right instrument to add leverage. Thanks.

    1. Pedestrian

      NUGT has never been at 18,000 despite what the chart says. The reason it shows that is because of all the reverse splits of the shares so some sites auto-correct the past to compensate for the current price erosion and that allows these things to keep running and splitting down to infinity. Kind of like how the dollar has eroded 97% since 1913 when the Fed came into existence and yet it still has full value as a dollar and can still be eroded another 97% and never hit zero. Maybe not the best analogy but its all I had right now.

      1. Pedestrian

        Palobar, keep reading up on those leveraged 3X ETF’s with decay as they are some of the most dangerous instruments on the market. Used incorrectly they can absolutely destroy your account. I learned the hard way when they first came out and suffered a huge loss on an overnight drop that never recovered. Instead the damned thing was split. I still grit my teeth over it but really have nobody to blame but myself for not reading up on them more to begin with. Your enemy is DECAY. Never use them for more than brief periods of time and only do so when the odds are stacked in your favour. If you make a decent gain take the damned thing and move on. Don’t even consider buy and hold though.

          1. Pedestrian

            No problem. I make good use of those leveraged ETF’s by the way. The way to play them is to always use them in pairs. For example JNUG and JDST which is the bear version of the bull trade. Open a live window for each and use the one that is rising to tip you off when the one that is falling is about to hit bottom and vice versa. There are almost always good clues to tip you off. I just follow the technical patterns and ignore everything else since that keeps life simple. On days when North Korean lunatics threaten countries with nuclear annihilation your work is going to be cut out for you. So take care to exit your trades by the end of the day unless you are positive they will keep going your way the next trading day. The trick to making this game work is to not get greedy. Just take your percentage target and get the hell out. Works like a charm over and over and over again.

    2. Don

      Palobar, if you want to see how some leveraged ETFs work, have a look at the chart of UVXY and note where it was at about four years ago. (and it is only a 2X leverage.). NUGT and JNUG are also very bad for decay although not as bad as UVXY. Holding them for more than a few weeks is not the greatest idea.

      1. palobar

        Thank you Don. From the various replies on this issue, I undertsand that if one can pick a bottom fairly close, than NUGT is good only for short term trading. I will check UVXY. Best regards.

  70. Bluebellkid

    This is from IBD today:

    Royal Gold (RGLD) edged up fractionally to 86.79 and is poised for a nearly 2% gain for the week. It appears the gold- and silver-mine royalties play will post a fourth up-week in the past five.
    As noted in this recent New Highs column, the Denver-based company is a little bit outside the permissible buy zone after a breakout from a long saucer with handle at 81.39.
    Three more gold-mining stocks to watch are Franco Nevada (FNV) (breakout at 76.37), Iamgold (IAG) (low priced, but a strong RS Rating of 87, second best in IBD’s gold and silver mining industry group as seen in IBD Stock Checkup), and Randgold (GOLD) (with a new base building).

    1. Gary Post author

      The miners have broken their intermediate trend line and confirmed that ICL is behind us. We may get a back test of the trend line at the next DCL.

      Buy aggressively at the next DCL. The same strategy as stocks. Buy the dips.

        1. Gary Post author

          You can buy now if you want but you may have to weather a scary dip into a daily cycle low. Similar to that first drop in gold after the Feb cycle top.

  71. Don

    The Dow and the S&P was managed to close slightly positive. As far as the public knows ‘buy the dip’ has worked again and there is nothing to worry about. The SM appears safe and solid.
    The miners are continuing their stealth bull market and not drawing too much attention. How many here are long the PM’s or the miners versus those that are either short or ‘waiting’ for a pull back?

        1. Gary Post author

          300-400 of those points will occur during the last 6 months of the bubble phase. The vertical phase.

          I think stocks are about to enter their vertical phase soon.

  72. Pedestrian

    I think some people here are declaring victory just a little bit early. HUI did not break out of its 6 month resistance trend line like I was hoping it would do and neither did GDX. Both stopped just short or right on their lines. Similarly, if you look at GLD price has stopped almost perfectly on the resistance channel that parallels the May and July support line lows. All those will have to be broken through to convince me we are going somewhere soon. It could happen. I really don’t know. Maybe Kimmy will find Jesus before Monday and gold will fall. It’s a crazy world.

    1. Gary Post author

      We are in a bull market just like I’ve been telling you for the last year and a half.

      Gold is not going back below the 200 DMA.

      It is due for a slightly deeper pullback soon, but one has to buy that dip, because the dollar is in a bear market, also like I’ve been suggesting for awhile.

      Even if one buys now and then has to weather a drawdown during the DCL it’s not going to be a big deal because gold will soon recover and make another leg up.

      The only question now is whether one wants to try to time a better entry, or whether you don’t care about a perfect entry and just want to get long and hang on for the fall rally.

      1. Pedestrian

        Stop it Gary. The charts are unequivocal on this topic. We could not have re-entered a bull market until we broke out of the channel at the monthly level and that has barely just happened this month. That means the chart was still within its bear market channel until very recently.

        What you are talking about from a year and a half ago was your belief that we hit a bear market low but that is not the same as the start of a new bull market which requires a violation of the channel before one can be declared. Even at that, this month is NOT over and the final word on a candlestick breakout cannot be written until we see a monthly CLOSING NUMBER.

        Please stop declaring victory every day before the verdict is even pronounced.

        1. Gary Post author

          That is YOUR definition of a bull market.

          When a bear market ends then a bull market begins. Gold began a new bull market in December of 2015 just like it began a bull market in spring of 2001.

          1. Pedestrian

            Actually no Gary, its not my definition. Investopdia states that “Bull markets are characterized by optimism, investor confidence and expectations that strong results should continue” and that is most definately not what we have seen to date.

            What we saw was disappointment, disillusionment, substantial losses following the first price break upwards in December 2015 and plenty of doubt. You could not possibly have declared a new bull market in those conditions until one was actually confirmed technically.

            Even at that, this spike could be no more than a throw-over on the chart. We will see what happens when the monthly closing price for gold is posted. If that fails again then we are still technically in a bear.

            This is not just me being difficult by the way. The algo’s are also programmed that way. Had they recognized that the bear was dead then gold stocks would be soaring already on automated buying.

            They are not soaring. Its still a bear to the computers.

          2. Pedestrian

            Anyway, maybe the term that is causing the problem here is “bear market channel”. Anything below it has meant a continuation of the bear market and anything above suggests the chart has turned bullish. Even then its not guaranteed. A candle wick can still break above resistance and not validate the new bull.

        2. Gary Post author

          One can think up all kinds of definitions or hurdles that have to be cleared before they ADMIT we are in a bull market. One could even say that until new highs are made we are still in a bear market.

          But when a bear market makes its final bottom then a new bull market begins. Gold made its final low in December of 2015.

          1. Pedestrian

            Maybe Gary, but you can’t declare it for a fact until its confirmed. Until then its just bluster and bird feathers. Do you even recall how many times people called a new bull market resumption after the peak in 2011? It was just an endless stream of such commentary and all of it was wrong. It’s the kind of thing you can only know after the fact with certainty unless you are some kind of mystic seer. It was the same thing with the top. So many people called the top in gold in 2010 and were bailing out with their gains thinking it was all over only to see the biggest move passed them right by. Maybe I am trying to be a purist here but as far as I am concerned its not a bull until the charts confirm it and until then its just speculation.

          2. Pedestrian

            On a more positive note, I see your site has climbed up to 107,000th most popular in the US according to Alexa which puts you in some pretty rare air. Not many of the billion or two sites worldwide make it into that league of the top 100 thousand and you are almost there. Just one more push higher on gold this month and the popularity ratings should put you over the top.

  73. Christian

    MINERS — Here’s what I think will play out over the next month or so..

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZU0dMuWT/

    I will be looking for a short sometime next week but will be buying hand over fist come September when Gold finds a DCL. September is one of the best month for Gold in terms of seasonality.. perhaps this is the push the Miners need to kick it into gear 🙂

  74. Goild

    Got back.

    The issue of NK is likely not up to US.
    That will be decided by SK and Japan as they are the ones to stand the heat.
    Agree with Gary, there are too many people at risk, and before a war diplomatic channels will be exhausted.
    I would say that Golds’s reversal happened with no need from the fire and fury stuff.
    The manipulators would not let the miners to continue sink.

    1. MegaMind

      SK and japan are dependent on US for protection… If trump had few hotels in SK he would be thinking twice before pushing the button… unless he is fully insured on the properties

    1. Gary Post author

      Bitcoin is clearly in the vertical stage of its bubble. A year and a hlaf ago no one would have dreamed bitcoin could trade over $3000, now we are at the stage where investors believe there is no limit to price gains. The same as the housing bubble, The same as the tech bubble.

      In the next several years we will see this stage in stocks and then again in gold. This is when silver will reach $500 and JNUG will as well.

      During the vertical stage of a bubble almost anything becomes possible as emotions take over and money flows into an asset under the assumption that price can never go down.

  75. mustang sally

    Evening folks: Well my short with jdst is underwater, but not giving up, still think gold will drop to around 1230 and get capped at 1260 where it should get stopped, I am with you Gary gold is going down but it is going to get capped at 1260. Still short and hangin in there.

    Shortin Sally

  76. zkotpen

    Christian,

    Wow — thanks for actually posting a chart about GDX!

    I’m tending to agree with your chart on GDX. You may recall, I posted it would be funny if GDX went to 23.87 and then began making tracks in the direction of its yearly or at least “intermediate” low… not necessarily soon, but more like moseying on down until it eventually started to decline in earnest.

    Well, that scenario sees the current move up as the second zig zag of a double zig zag, so it should be five waves up, to reach or exceed 23.86, but not exceed 25.71 for a triangle scenario, or it could exceed 25.71 in some other corrective pattern. In other words, though I suspect GDX to be in a triangle since the December low, even if it’s not, it’s still in a corrective pattern. And as such, it should be making its final five waves up, Wave C of Y, of some corrective pattern or other, and that wave C should be 5 waves, as was wave A from the most recent “daily” cycle low in GDX.

    Will look at this more closely over the weekend.

    Right now — beach time — ciao!

  77. Pedestrian

    Here’s a guy I agree with. Chart courtesy of Neil Davis over at Goldtent TA
    https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/gdx11aug.png

    So close, so close but oh so farrrrrr.

    I don’t know about anyone else here but the sudden overwhelming bullish viewpoint on gold all around Gold-ville strikes me as a touch premature. Yeah, yeah I know, we are near the seasonal strong time and everyone knows stocks are about to crash and blah blah blah nuclear annihilation.

    But I ain’t buying it until I see more proof.

    1. Gary Post author

      Short term sentiment is getting excessively bullish as it should when we near the top of a daily cycle.

      But the larger intermediate cycle has bottomed so one has to buy the next DCL aggressively.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes, I would agree with that Gary. A pullback does seem to be appropriate here come Monday and I have seen signs on European index charts to suggest they have put in at least a temporary bottom meaning they will be going back up Monday. In other words gold should respond by falling back. We shall see. I am glad I didn’t h

        1. Pedestrian

          ….hop on board today as so many others did. It just looked all too convenient the way charts were coming in. We got that suggestive bit of leg that was enough to get most people here excited but its not a hot night for me until the deal is sealed.

          Hot legs be damned!

  78. Pedestrian

    “We have many options for Venezuela, including a possible military option if necessary.” — Donald Trump, August 11, 2017

    Just when you thought the next world war would be confined to a dirt poor Asian nation hemmed in and surrounded by the super powers of China, Russia and American proxy of South Korea, we were happy to hear today that there are indeed plans for military intervention in the Southern Hemisphere. And its much closer to home. What a relief!

    Trump not ruling out military options in Venezuela — MarketWatch
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-not-ruling-out-military-options-in-venezuela-reports-2017-08-11

  79. Pedestrian

    And this next story is right up the alley of the people here tuned into numbers. It’s from Dana Lyons who covers an angle I have never heard before which is that years ending in 7 are virtually guaranteed to deliver big negative stock market shocks. His list runs as follows:

    2007: “Just” a 10% drawdown, but also a cyclical market top
    1997: Asian Crisis…swift 17% drawdown
    1987: “The Crash”…20% decline, with a 41% drawdown
    1977: Cyclical bear market…9% decline, with a 15% drawdown
    1967: Up 5% for half, but 12% drawdown, all in the 4th quarter
    1957: Straight down from July…13% loss, with 20% drawdown
    1947: Mostly unscathed…2% gain, with ”just” a 7% drawdown
    1937: Major bear market…Down 29% with 41% drawdown
    1927: Roaring bull…9% drawdown, but a gain of 21%
    1917: Cyclical bear market…22% decline, with a 31% drawdown
    1907: Cyclical bear market…24% decline, with a 35% drawdown

    And don’t forget people, the number 777 is the new 666 so keep that in the back of your minds!

    Unlucky (Year) Number 7? — Dana Lyons
    https://lyonssharepro.com/2017/07/unlucky-year-number-7/?link=mktw

    1. Gary Post author

      Because this daily cycle is right translated, especially in the DOW I tend to think if we are going to get a big drawdown it’s probably going to occur in Oct.

      Remember the ICL last year came on election night. So I’m expecting another ICL this year in the similar time slot.

      So if we are going to produce a year 7 hard pullback I’m looking for it in the fall.

      1. Pedestrian

        Sounds about right to me. What is happening currently is just foreshadowing of the future. Kind of a warmup before the real action. You have no doubt been hearing plenty about the debt ceiling for example and that is due to become an issue by end of September. Democrats are so desperate to make Trump look like a lousy President they will no doubt block and in theory the government would be set for shut-down. Seems like a great way to enter a recession if you ask me. And a really good reason to trigger a stock selloff. Only a month and a half to go so it won’t be a long wait to find out.
        http://observer.com/2017/08/donald-trump-congress-debt-ceiling/

  80. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    I wouldn’t expend too much energy on the excessively bullish types. You’ve seen Christian’s chart for GDX. I was looking at a similar setup in gold as he was posting it — the upwards move simply looks incomplete, but nearing completion.

    Remember that discussion about energy wasted on sex a few months back?

    Why get drawn into people’s mindless drivel? We only have so much energy to deploy…

    … though comedy is good, I reckon —

    Whaddaya say we get focused on the upcoming FOMC minutes week, eh?

    1-3 reversals usually accompany FOMC meeting/minutes week.

    1. Pedestrian

      Sure thing Zkot, the next FOMC presser is slated for Wednesday, September 20th which is right around the time of the debt ceiling deadline. Probably no rate increase given the optics of what we can expect the mood to be at that time regarding debt servicing costs.

      I don’t have much of an opinion on it tell the truth. But this current Korean crisis is already wearing thin since like a lot of other big media events it just causes all the retail sheep to be pushed in one direction together.

      I just don’t believe the market has suddenly awoken and said to itself “Hey, these stocks are too overpriced so we should dump them and all go out and buy gold and gold mining stock”. Too stupid for words. No, this is just another event that is mostly media hype and not that different than how markets got shoved around in unexpected ways during the last election.

      I think I will just enjoy the weekend and get some riding in while the season is still nice. This thread has mostly died off anyway and I suspect its because there is still enough doubt that nobody really wants to make any statements about their beliefs in a new precious metals bull that they might regret saying later.

      Honestly, I am still asking myself how I could have been so wrong about metals this past month. It is a rare time I am on the wrong side of the market and I am still not convinced I am wrong. We will know by next week if gold starts falling back and we will know with certainty when the month closes if this is really all the bull people are now proclaiming or its just a bunch of HUI.

      So stay tuned. The final chapter is not yet written. And I think odds still favour the cyclical pullback I had been expecting all along. Should we go there it will be one more time the wind gets taken out of the bull sails. I would really enjoy that.

      The gold camp is just so obnoxious and self righteous whenever things go their way.

    1. Steffmeister

      Copied from another forum, for those of you interested in all the geopolitical violence events synchronized with turns/breakouts/breakdowns in markets:
      (No this is NOT Armstrong, Ped)

      *****
      “”The G-V tells me that August and in particular September will contain many events which will have a lasting changing effect with regards to geopolitical and individual power and its distribution.

      The US eclipse next week has not been discussed due to it being a sort of “off the wall” phenomenon for traders.

      That ties in, as it happens, with Myles Wilson Walker’s conclusions about how WD Gann used the eclipse (possibly) for timing. Again, some people say he didn’t do it that way, but MWW and Patrick Mikula, and a few other lesser-knowns dotted about here and there are the best sources on this currently available.

      The G-V does what is required. I have looked for precision and reliability in timing and G-V that has it. But MWW is good and is PM, and better known for their Gann research. MWW sees eclipses as triggering later, after a time period passes. Like lighting a fuse, the length of which MWW did a lot of work on. G-V concurs in it’s own unique way. This period of extreme G-v will be a lengthy period of contested power for a duration not often seen outside large wars.(should it work out as forecasted). Usually that means serious resistance and support levels get tested and resolved to set the next direction.
      *****
      Speaking of September…if the Au price makes another 2 month low (the third consecutive this year) it could post on 9/11.
      *****
      G-V says Sept is one long lunatics-in-power-fest from start to end. And into October too.
      If I have to pick crisis moments, from out of the big extended crisis …. 3, 11, 16-17, 21,27. So the 11th is in the hot periods. But based on what I think this means that’s like saying the building is on fire for a month and we will hear extra sounds from within on those particular days and the 48 hour periods around those days.

      “V” effect is skyhigh and then spikes higher after the 20th Sept and stays there. If I pick out 21st-22nd and 24-27th as being even worse than the rest, this can be misleading as it causes a diminishment of the craziness for the other times. They probably will contain more violence than the preceding setup period.

      All I can say is this: those who have watched over time the G-V forecast and outcomes should be clear on this one from the way I am stating what it is saying. Those who have not yet seen many instances of it in action, this is the impossible in front of your eyes, just watch and work with it when you become satisfied as to what it does.

      It might be time to look at VIX for the big asset classes.

      …. and I said I’d stop doing specific days more than a month out….

      Well, you asked. That’s the answer vagueness due to the stuff hasn’t happened yet. Seven weeks ahead of now! Let it run and we’ll see end of September how it went.””
      *****

      Interesting but sad stuff, it’s like a giant (they) walking by an ant hill (we) and start poking it with a long stick causing chaos in our daily routine.

          1. Steffmeister

            Read it again, GV is mentioned in the first sentence, MWW a little bit later … this is a good practice for you Ped 😛

  81. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Actually, I was referring to Wednesday’s FOMC minutes — always a market mover.

    “This thread has mostly died off anyway and I suspect its because there is still enough doubt… Honestly, I am still asking myself how I could have been so wrong about metals this past month…”

    Indeed, this is characteristic of getting to the pointy end of a triangle, at least in miners. Remember, this is the same gnarly corrective pattern we took notice of and discussed in late February.

    And I do not think it resolves this week, though I do think there’s that market mover on Wednesday, good for 1-3 reversals — 2 of which are annotated on Christian’s chart.

  82. mustang sally

    Morning everyone: Well I guess all those people who are short must be crazy or poor traders, lets reverse all this bullishness, I gave you you 3 numbers, 93.60 usd, 10.00 hgd, and 12.5o. They all tested these numbers and failed or did they, maybe this was just a backtest of support and you should be buying dust instead of nugt, Who in their right mind would be wanting to buy dust? it seems no one. Was this week just noise to get everyone on the wrong boat. My favorite indicator Rambus just switched from 500 gold to now being a gold bug, if you have ever followed him he is the whipsaw king, fooled many times , is he fooled again?
    Time will tell

    Shortin Sally

  83. Nada

    To be fair, must people have not become bullish yet. They still believe the miners is another fake out. Think of all the fuel remains? We all know an asset gets more bullish the higher it goes. Gold just broke out of a bear market. The party has not even started.

  84. mustang sally

    Not much going on in the home, came here and it is very quite, wonder why, Always quiet before the storm, are we going down, Gary thinks so, I agree. Where is the line between bull and bear, Mable Marker has marked 1214 and 1240 as the battle ground, anyone with charting can see the significance of 1240. and 1214, if you can’t you should not be trading. No more chatter from me until this is resolved.

    Over and out

    Shortin Sally

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