316 thoughts on “MARKET WRAP 8/28

  1. butch

    Keep holding your longs until you see:
    A. A large volume sell-off with no reaction or
    B. A large GLD SOS or
    C An increase in COT longs.

  2. jacob2

    Sometimes consensus opinion gets it right. A SM September to early OCtober 5 % sell off then rallying to year set year end highs. Gold rally to early/mid October, sell off, buy again early/mid December. Think this is about right but will just hold what I’ve got. Be nice if energy would participate in the year end rally.

  3. Bigdaddy

    Gold and silver are up nicely right now but these over-night moves never seem to sustain to the opening of the American markets. But, maybe the latest NK missile launch will be all it takes to push the US into war and we could see some real action tomorrow.

  4. Bigdaddy

    WTF, no one has anything to say? No even the two chatter boxes, Pedo or zkotpen are trading horseshit trading strategies tonight. Not a peep. I was just checking to see what the indexes and gold were doing and not much has changed. I am going to bed now, wife is waiting. Tomorrow should be an interesting day.

    1. Steffmeister

      My portfolio is looking healthy this morning, not one in red, two unchanged and the rest in green πŸ™‚

  5. Steffmeister

    Good Morning πŸ™‚

    I was a little bit hatrsh against Gary yesterday, my point is he never gives another poster credit about a good call, never, not once. Why would I become a subscriber if he doesn’t respect you and your analysis?

    Ok, this is very interesting:

    August 28, 2017 at 10:53 am
    The answer is in the chart of S&P500 Gary, you only have to look !

    Gary Post author
    August 28, 2017 at 11:20 am
    Charts are nothing more than a record of past history. So how can I see the future from history?
    Haven’t we seen enough abject failures of charts to predict anything by now?

    So why is this fish so tasty? It’s a special kind, the future predicting Fish πŸ™‚

    It has been swimming around the whole summer.

  6. chrisG

    Like i said, 200 dma here we come. High probability. Likely its SPX heading there, around 100 points drop. Lets see how it behaves there to decipher the Davinci codes.

    1. Steffmeister

      Tx for your kind comment.

      Gold=High in 2017, TPTB has not decide if they are going down the deflation or inflation track yet
      deflation=revisit 1000, inflation= a multi year rally ahead

      SM=probably a top in S&P500 for now …

  7. Nada

    Reminder from post yestersay:
    Buying on weakness GLD
    8/22 – 185.6m
    8/24 – 121.68

    Still no reason to sell as they continue to hold. It is quite interesting we had the large SOS of -568million on SPY. Pray we get an ICL, to setup long opportunity in SM.

  8. Duuuuuude

    Sound advice Gary. I have a strong hand now in silver and gasoline and not going to ruin it by trying to get cute with it. Good luck trading everybody.

  9. zkotpen

    I will share a few observations πŸ˜‰

    GDX taking out 23.86 — I’ve been forecasting that for 5-6 weeks, back when GDX was in the 21s. Seeing the July low higher than the May low throws plenty of ambiguity into the mix. Nevertheless, the yearly cycle is corrective, until its character begins to change, i.e., if price starts getting out of line to the upside, and less and less so to the downside. Until that happens, it’s corrective. It happened in 2016, but not in 2017. GDX has spent most of the year in the basement (i.e., below its 200 day SMA).

    Of course the dollar daily cycle is gonna fail. That’s what happens on the way to the YCL. I believe it was Nada who posted a clear view of the possible megaphone pattern in DXY — that’s interesting to keep an eye on. The Euro has been king all year, and the dollar has been down, and that remains the case for a little while longer.

    DXY is Euro-heavy. Does anybody think GBPUSD will exceed the August high again this year? I don’t. It may, but cable’s yearly and intermediate cycles look to be pointing down. Bounce looks corrective to me.

    And the JPY is grinding its way up — take a look at the USDJPY chart, especially from 21hs UTC, Japan’s pre-market hours. I bet some seekers will find some manipulators in the way that currency pair bounces hard each time it approaches 108 — take profits quickly if you’ve got a leveraged long position in the Yen as it rises — or die! (You won’t die, but your account will commit hara kiri).

    Seriously — look at the two times USDJPY has approached 108 today.
    Manipulation seekers are gonna have a field day.

    Look at the resistance met by GBPUSD at the 50 day SMA, and now at the 20 day SMA

    — and contrast those currencies with EURUSD blowing right thru 1.20.

    My point is, the dollar remains in its yearly cycle decline, but the move down is abating in several of the major currencies, even if the Euro continues strong for a while longer. The Euro has been strong all year, but JPY and GBP yearly cycle rallies have both been corrective in nature in 2017, and the latter looks to have ended at the beginning of August.

  10. Gary Post author

    The dollar has just taken out the 2016 low like I warned.

    Not only will it cause asset inflation but ultimately a lower dollar will be good for profits.

    We’ve got the driver for the next series of bubbles now in place.

    Bernanke thought he could just print trillions and nothing bad would happen. It took awhile but something very bad is going to happen to the dollar.

  11. zkotpen


    “USD/JPY is in wave C of WXY down to 105.27”

    One would think that at least sub-107 were possible or likely from the chart… but the 108 floor sure has looked impenetrable… so far

  12. Gary Post author

    Copper is still on a tear. Some one the other day said it looked toppy. I have no idea what that means. How does something look like it’s topping when it’s making higher highs?

    This is what most traders do. They find a way to miss rallies in a bull market.

        1. bluelagoon

          Yes – September tends to be good for DUST – since 2011 – buying 1st of Sept to the high yields anywhere between 2-78% return….so good returns except 2012 and 2016.

          1. Pedestrian

            Summers over for Wall Street start of September. I doubt traders are coming back and saying to themselves “hey, lets crash the stock market”. Conveniently like many years in the past the market is down just before traders return to their desks so they have some meat to chew on when they sit down in their chairs. Meanwhile gold has gone higher than I expected however there was room for this to happen and the charts just keep getting better and better all the time. This is the yearly cycle high and its just about done like dinner. We will not see higher gold prices again this year which means this will come in as a lower high and prove beyond a shadow of doubt that we remain in a gold bear market and we can put an end to the prattle about higher-highs and higher-lows as proof this is actually a bull. What we are about to experience instead is the second major double-top since 2011/2012 as seen on your monthly charts. Sorry bugs, it ain’t the big bull you think it is. Never was and never will be. The decline that follows will depress the hell out of most of you.

          2. Gary Post author

            Gold has now broken the bear market trend line. Now you will find some other reason for why the bear market is still intact.

            Like most traders it will take you many years before you finally recognize the major trend change. I recognized it within a few days of the bottom.

            Many traders are still in denial about the bull market in stocks even after 8 years and big new highs.

          3. Pedestrian

            False recognition this time Gary. You are going to be wrong this time. When gold fails to break above the 2016 highs will you keep singing the same old song about this being a bull market? I already told you more than a year ago what was going to happen and you are still in denial and touting subs to buy JNUG since its going to 500 or more. Lets see how smug you are once this turns down as expected. Even better, lets revisit the whole thing at year end.

            Lets see if this bull of yours corrects all timing mistakes. This should be a riot.

        2. Gary Post author

          How much money has already been lost by traders trying to pick the top of this daily cycle?

          A lot if the results in the challenge are any indication.

          1. Gary Post author

            In the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle the safest strategy is to buy dips. The riskiest strategy is to try to pick tops, or heaven forbid short.

          2. Cardio2

            I said it before and will say it again. Pedestrian is a great contrarian indicator. I make money off his posts so I thank him for that.

          3. Pedestrian

            No you don’t. My trade has not even begun yet. Apparently you fail to understand we are setting up for a juicy bear trade. Let me know if you DON’T take the bet and then get back to me.

          4. Gary Post author

            And in the meantime you’ve missed a 34% move in 3 weeks.

            Isn’t that like cutting off your nose to spite your face?

          5. Pedestrian

            I haven’t missed anything at all. I am targeting a bear trade. Told you more times than necessary already. I will bide just my time until it gets here. By the way, you did not buy it either. You said so above that you won’t chase.

            So if everything is coming out exactly as you said then why are you on the sidelines?.

          6. Gary Post author

            I don’t know what you mean about sidelines. Did you not pay attention to the last two videos?

            I just added 14% to the metal portfolio.

  13. jake

    BBY beat earning expectations and down10%.
    TTC beat earnings expectations and down 18%
    AAOI same down 41% etc.
    Not looking good for the market.

    1. Gary Post author

      Show me one ICL where it has ever looked good for the market.

      This is why everyone should get a working knowledge of cycles and sentiment to keep from making these same mistakes over and over.

  14. butch

    @Ped. These gold triangles rarely fail. Also look at the inverted head and shoulders on the monthly which projects to 1600

  15. Strike

    I think the big difference this time regarding the political news is the reaction of the dollar. Generally a crisis strengthens the buck temporarily. This time the dollar went into near freefall instead and is continuing weaker. For me this needs to be watched as a possible major change in the markets.

    1. Gary Post author

      The dollar has broken the 2016 low. There’s no more confirmations. It’s started a bear market.

      The end game of printing trillions of dollar in QE is about to begin.

      1. Spanky

        Still, this is not a very “pretty” consolidation, which is not typical of this bull.

        I do believe the Fed/PPT are not idiots and are fully cognizant of the low volatility ramp in the stock market over the last 8 years and the widespread acknowledgement of the all time record gap between rich and poor. Thus, I do believe they could tolerate/engineer a deeper correction of 10% or more in a controlled fashion in order to keep the bubble under control for now.

        The reality is the Fed has stated that they will be reducing their balance sheet starting in September, and one would think that if QE buoyed stock values, removing it should do the opposite. I think the lead up to the next Fed meeting is at a minimum the perfect opportunity for the market to scare bulls out of the market given this uncertainty.

      2. Pedestrian

        Not a bear market in the dollar Gary. Not even close. This is going to be a hell of a slingshot in fact and the dollar will go MUCH higher.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why I prefer cycles and sentiment over charts.

      We’re 42 days into the daily cycle and sentiment levels are already getting extreme. We may have already printed the ICL last week. If not we’re running out of time as it’s just getting too late in the daily cycle.

      Preferably we get a break of the June lows and fulfill the failed daily cycle requirement but it’s never a guarantee anymore in our modern managed markets.

      1. Spanky

        Still, this is not a very β€œpretty” consolidation, which is not typical of this bull.

        I do believe the Fed/PPT are not idiots and are fully cognizant of the low volatility ramp in the stock market over the last 8 years and the widespread acknowledgement of the all time record gap between rich and poor. Thus, I do believe they could tolerate/engineer a deeper correction of 10% or more in a controlled fashion in order to keep the bubble under control for now.

        The reality is the Fed has stated that they will be reducing their balance sheet starting in September, and one would think that if QE buoyed stock values, removing it should do the opposite. I think the lead up to the next Fed meeting is at a minimum the perfect opportunity for the market to scare bulls out of the market given this uncertainty.

        1. Gary Post author

          The Fed never allows the market to correct heavily in front of an FOMC meeting. By the end of September the markets will be making new highs again. As long as we keep making new highs the Fed can remain on course for their rate hiking cycle.

          1. Spanky

            You cynicism is pure now, Gary. Your heart has been hardened, to put it in biblical terms.

            I would love to categorically tell you you are wrong, but I can’t.

  16. Spanky

    Once $gold takes out 1390ish on the monthly chart, there is an inverted H&S that projects to about $1800, arguably.

    I imagine we won’t get through 1390 on this IC, but it would be awesome to see. If $gold were to do that, maybe the ICL would simply consist of a backtest of the breakout.

    I can dream.

  17. bluelagoon

    Is this the DC top in gold or just a temporary dip? Quite a nice bounce so far in JDST since this morning.

      1. bluelagoon

        Thx Spanky for your input. I guess the question now is how far gold will correct from here.

  18. JJHarmen

    Pedestrian, you are a joke. “Meanwhile gold has gone higher than I expected “. Yes, it sure has, a LOT higher.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Pedo, your forecasting is really, really bad. You need to quit studying those horseshit charts because they sure in the hell aren’t working for you. You must be down a ton of cash but i don’t feel sorry for you.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is why I keep stressing not to short the market. If this closes up today it could lead to a major short squeeze and the vertical phase of the bubble could get underway.

  19. Kruzoe

    Closed my 4k Jnug this am. Will take the rest of the week off as I was lucky to make enough money πŸ™‚

  20. palobar

    Breaking out of a triple top that took nearly four months is clearly a bullish event. In addition, taking out the April top and the high on the 21/8 adds weight to the bullish case. However, I must say that today Gold achieved a PERFECT price and time square relating to the all-time high. Similar geometry was achieved at the December 2015 and 2016 lows. Thus, short term caution is wise. Since the 2011 high all these “events” gave a low. This time however we got a high. Mark today’s high. If gold takes it out it should go substantially higher.

    1. Gary Post author

      The euro also tagged major resistance today at 120.50.

      Today was the point to take down leverage in the metals but I wouldn’t be completely out. Just get out of leverage. One can put it back on if we get a move down into a DCL.

      1. Herman


        I thought you just told people NOT to try timing tops in this advancing phase of the ICL? Getting confused here.

  21. Sassybabe

    You people should listen to Pedestrian. He appears to is a most informed trader. I assume that he is shorting gold so I am adding few hundred more GDX short sales this morning.

    1. Pedestrian

      Sassy, it is my intention to short gold and miners and the set up looks excellent. I have not however taken the trade yet (except for a USD trade which is currently in the red). My habit is to hold until there is an obvious technical top or a reversal that signals the end has arrived. I had hoped for Monday but gold was not cooperative. Month end is almost here though so the wait should not be long. I am trading based on what I view as a double-top in gold on the monthly chart. Support and resistance lines look good. It does not mean I will be right though in spite of my strong beliefs but if I am correct the bet will be superb.

      Gold on a monthly chart. This level of chart is not really tradeable unfortunately but it does offer insight into patterns, cycles and trend. When I do buy it will be by using the smallest degree 1 minute and 5 minute charts.

  22. Goild

    Good morning,

    Kruzoe, part was luck, part was thinking and acting right.

    Got my lunch money and I will stop here.

    Have a nice day.

    1. Nada

      @Goild You seem like a nice enough individual. With that said, can you knock off the “got my lunch money” nonsense you post every single day. What is the point of your post? Do you want a pat on the back, do you want other people on here to think you are something special? Do you not get enough attention at home?

      You never post a chart, or any type of technical/fundamental reasoning behind your trades. Its the same BS every day. Tell you what. We will all assume you made your lunch money every day. Why don’t you tell us if you DO NOT make your lunch money? That should limit your posts to about 1 every 6 months.

      1. JJHarmen

        Nada, I could not have said it better. Goild sounds like he is just some kid playing stock market investor. Who gives a shit about his childish claim to have made his “lunch money” nearly every day. I don’t know why Gary allows such silliness.

          1. Lenapowich

            Pedestrian, do you have any friends other than the pretend online variety? A cat doesn’t count.

        1. Lenapowich

          JJ. That was degree of harshness was uncalled for. I like Goild even if his lunch money routine a bit over done.

  23. Spanky

    The $hui’s 100 WMA finally crossed above the flattening 200 WMA this week. The $xau’s cross should happen next week. These are by far the two most significant indexes for the gold miners IMO, even more important than GDX.

    Quite often, a cross of the 100 WMA above the 200 WMA will mark the beginning of the second leg of a new bull market that is even more powerful than the first leg. I am hoping that is the case this time.

  24. Bigdaddy

    WTF?? FB made a new low this morning, reversed and exceeded yesterday’s high. I’m have never really believed in that PPT mumbo-jumbo but kind of move looks pretty dammed fishy.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes some people just deserve to lose money.

      Ignore the PPT at your own risk.

      FB is in a bull flag as are all the indexes. Why would you want to fight that and risk getting caught when the flag breaks higher?

    1. Spanky

      Also notice that $gold’s 100 WMA finally crossed above the 200 WMA this week. That is long term extremely bullish.

  25. dboz

    Never ceases to amaze how the market can straddle every option/trade and make you question your position. RUT ROH.

  26. butch

    Holding a triple top break-out for 60 days has a 92.71 chance of a 5% price increase before retracing. First 1375, then back to 1300. Those who aren’t long now can enter then.

    1. Herman

      I dont understand your comment butch. The breakout (through 1300) just occurred right, so what do you mean by these 60 days? And, when there is room for gold to run to 1375, I would buy now instead of waiting for a backtest that may or may not occur…

      1. butch

        60 days from when the breakout occurred. A 5 day hold from the initial breakout shows a small loss, apparently some profit taking after the initial thrust up.

  27. palobar

    Today’s price and time relationship in Gold should not be understimated (remember wheat in July). We may have seen a short-term top here. I still expect a bigger mover later in September.

  28. Spanky

    When $gold makes a weekly close below the 10 week EMA, it’ll be a clear signal the IC has topped. 10 week EMA is currently at $1280.

    It’s possible a DCL might take us below that MA intraweek, but unless the IC has topped we are pretty much guaranteed to close the week above that MA and move higher the following weeks.

          1. Nada

            Well it is trying to find some support on monthly fib, but its a bit hard to say. USDJPY got a nice bounce and GLD may still need to fill the morning gap. Miners seem OK at the moment, but we all know their moves are always suspect.

            SM dip buyers continued to be rewarded, day after day..

    1. palobar

      Where were the WMA standing on the day gold peaked in July 2016? I agree with with but keep in mind that there are ‘things’ going on that are not obvious to every one.

      I fully agree with Gary on the US markets. A study of the monthly MACD and the % support his view. Overall, I expect sideways – downward movement until mid October.

      1. Gary Post author

        That would require a really stretched intermediate cycle.

        We’re in the timing band for the ICL now with this third daily cycle, and sentiment levels have reached excessively bearish levels.

        Notice how many traders here are looking for lower lows in the stock market. This is what happens at ICL’s.

        Really the only thing missing is a break of the June low. But then again that was prevented from happening in March so it may not happen here either.

        1. palobar

          You are right Gary. A bounce is due and could be sharp. Same for the Dollar. But overall I would expect the DJIA to continue higher after October-November

  29. dboz

    Gary, does the CHALLENGE help or hurt your thinking? It must make your head swim. I imagine everyone is all over the place. Of course you can get a FEEL for the psychology by watching all us fish flop around IN and OUT of water (trades).

  30. Herman

    Many things may happen. But, we finally and decisively have broken through 1300. Miners also reacted stronger than they did for a long time, large volume yesterday. The DCL may be another chance to ‘load the boat’, but it is not a sure thing that miners will correct strongly. I think risk has changed to the upside..

  31. Americano

    HUGE Bitcoin development. Saw it pop last night ” for no reason” – I looked at the news & whaddya know……the NK guy with bowl haircut was doing weird stuff again.
    Why HUGE? Because now Bitcoin is actin like a safe haven. Up 7% vs gold .70 or something.
    Perspective – Bitcoin is JUST 1% of gold market cap now. 5% makes Bitcoin between $17K & $25K. Just 5% !!!! That’s the bet. THE bet.

      1. Americano

        Lol. So true. Those not in crypto “yet” ( still have a soft spot in my heart for JNUG BS that drove me to Bitcoin) see hundreds of joke cryptocurrencies & get fogged by it.
        Here is THE skinny. Nobody trades non-Bitcoin cryptocurrencies to hold them. The are just to catch a pop. What do they do when they get the pop? Dump & hold in Bitcoin. This will be a ” No Shi*” realization next year but not yet. Bitcoin doesn’t even start till 2018. This year is JUST pre-season. Americano reporting…..from the future.

        1. Kruzoe

          Americano, Sold all my bitcoin. I’m into ether, lite, neo and one other crypto. No pain, no gain.

  32. Bigdaddy

    Holy sheep shit! The biotechs have been on fire lately. It looks like they are going to get back to the highs back in 2015. Ignoring that sector was a big mistake. Is it too late to jump on board? Gary, what say you?

    1. Nada

      Come on BD, you act like it is your first day here. You know what Gary is going to say. He is not trading bio because he believes it is too susceptible to attacks from Washington politicians.

        1. Nada

          I detect a little negativity there BD. Don’t let the little zinger Gary unleashed on you this morning get ya down πŸ™‚

          1. Bigdaddy

            Naw, Gary’s criticisms don’t bother me. He tries to be helpful. You on the other hand, always taking shots at others ,so as I said, piss off.

          2. Nada

            Nah, not taking shots at others. Just brought attention to a few for hindsight trading. You on the other hand, a simpleton who likes to hide behind a keyboard and tell others to piss off. When in reality he the one hiding in his shed because he wife will not permit him to trade – probably because he continues to lose so much money shorting the SM.

    1. Nada

      Hope that one works out, because oil is a frustrating bastard. What was your reasoning for trade? GL

    2. bluelagoon

      I also think oil will bounce – but wondering if it’ll bounce on the report tomorrow – I find that’s usually the time that things turn.

  33. Jimsee

    palobar – I’m intrigued by you reference to the price/time relations forming lows, now highs – this change in character could well imply a new strong bull phase ?

  34. Lenapowich

    With the Asian and European markets down hard , hasn’t that usually been a signal for our markets to rally after a brief sell off? It has been that way since I started watching the markets. It’s almost as if the PPT doesn’t allow any other markets to dictate the direction of the S&P. Just my theory, for what it’s worth.

    1. Bigdaddy

      I have noticed the same thing Lena. I knew when I went to bed last night that the SM would be staging a come back today. BUT, i think it’s going to surprise everyone and fail by the end of the week, if not today or tomorrow.

  35. Goild

    The reasoning for getting USO at $9.38 is because I think oil at $46 is a low price. Eventually oil will go to $60.
    USO below $9.38 is a very good price.
    Though I am always early to buy and sell. So I got rid of 1K USO shares because it may go down to $9.00
    This is a safe trade. No brainer. One just has to be patient.

  36. Kenny

    I have been watching this blog site for sometime as it is quite entertaining with it’s diverse characters all vying for attention. Some are quite good at the game of investing and others, well, not so good. One thing I have noted is that a few characters are clearly the same person.
    I am surprised that no one has picked up what is obvious and that is that the character called Pedestrian is the same character going by the name Zkotpen. True character cannot be hidden for long. Both spend a lot of time praising the other and appear most often only minutes apart. The attempt to alter writing style is not very sophisticated.
    As I said on another occasion, I have no intention of engaging in conversation about where I think the markets are going or what my investments are. No need for me to get into that.

    1. Kruzoe

      I would be very surprised if Ped turns out to be Zkotpen (and Mustang sally). Ped is in Western Canada while Zkot is somewhere in S.E. Asia (Thailand or Indonesia).

      1. Bigdaddy

        I thought maybe Pedo and Zkotpen might be the same because on they are equally irritating and wrong about the same things. Plus, they both talk big with long paragraphs. Mustang Sally was more to the point. Not the same as Pedo.

      1. Nada

        I think Steffmeister is Spanky, Spanky is JJHarmen, JJharmen is Lenapowich, Lenapowich
        is BlueBellKid, BlueBellKid is Christian, and of course we all know Christian is Gary πŸ™‚

        1. Pedestrian

          Kind of funny. I thought Don, Kenny, JJHarmen and Mac were all the same person too. We could ask Gary but he has a contractual obligation with WordPress not to identify people by their IP addresses and could face having this site shut down if he ever did that.

          1. Nada

            Ped, I don’t care who you are. I like ya and you want to know why?!

            “Gary but he has a contractual obligation with WordPress not to identify people by their IP addresses and could face having this site shut down if he ever did that.”

            You waited quite some time to slip that in!

          2. Pedestrian

            LOL!!! Actually it doesn’t matter in my case because I only use proxy servers. That’s probably why Mustang and I had one of the same IP’s if she was using the same service or same bridge. But Gary should know better. WordPress is not tolerant in that regard and they take privacy seriously.

            I know. I talked to them.

    2. TraderPete

      Pedestrian was also previously known as Mustang Sally. He may also have many handles that we are not aware of. He’ a very cagy character. 😎

      PS: He’s also a convoluted, mixed-up, crazed, nincompooper, perma bear. But I like him. 😎

  37. RonL

    Is everyone here a day trader? Buy and hold on gold and miners is how I am going. Right or wrong but day trading here is insane. You all must be better than me if you make money. I don’t have the time or want to have my full attention on the markets to day trade.

    1. Nada

      I think most are swing traders trying to follow cycles. Not sure many are old turkey. What time frame do you typically hold?

    1. Spanky

      I’ll bet we gap higher tomorrow just to sucker in the eager beavers and then eventually, by Friday or Monday that gap will get filled.

  38. Bigdaddy

    Just passing on some important info guys. I was talking with my contacts in the oil industry and they said that the storm in Texas is going to drive down WTI more yet due to the fact that no one can drive their cars due to the flooding. Less demand However, they said $55-$60 by early spring end is their expectation. I can’t see it myself but these guys are usually right in the long run.

  39. Bigdaddy

    Okay, gotta go. The dog is letting me know that it’s time to have a dump and chase down bugs bunny. I will try and get back on before the close.

    1. Lenapowich

      BD. Let us know then when it’s time to buy oil stocks. I want to diversify my portfolio which right now consists of GDXJ only. Btw, you look after your dog (and your wife) very well.

  40. dboz

    As I was saying earlier, this market makes you doubt your convictions/decisions at every turn. RUT ROH.

  41. bluelagoon

    Dboz – it seems the best way to play gush these days is to watch for a bottom daily – yesterday and today produced nice gains.

    1. dboz

      Saw that. I got stopped out. Could have cleaned up today! No day trades for the contest. I am done with energy in my personal account until I see some sort of bottom action. Whipsaw gets you in energy. Highly volatile right now. Need to get back into trending mode at some point. That is where I will get in again.

  42. Spanky

    Next two days should be chopping action in the miners. I expect a near term low by Friday or Monday at the latest. We may chop around between that low and todays high for a week or two before making the next higher high, IMO.

    Although we could drift materially higher from here and make higher highs in the miners, the next real upwards explosion is likely a month or so away, IMO.

  43. zkotpen


    “As posted a few weeks ago USDJPY going to 106.”

    I know — as stated above, that’s what it looks like, right?

    But just try it (if USDJPY goes below 109 again). Try it with a demo account, big leverage forex broker (500:1 or so). Watch what happens to the number in the little “profit” field in the lower right corner on MT4. Those bounces are severe, not like your usual reversal where the trade goes against you, then turns back in your favor for a retracement, to give you a convenient exit. You get stopped out if you’re smart; otherwise, your position could very well get closed out, and in the blink of an eye, your account balance reads, “0.00”.

    Or just look at the 4 moves below 109 thus far, 8/11; 8/18; 8/28; and 8/29 — each one goes a little lower than the previous one, and each is reversed in severe fashion, like a machine gun opening fire on a field of charging samurai warriors on horseback, armed with swords.

    1. zkotpen

      …”You get stopped out if you’re smart; otherwise, your position could very well get closed out, and in the blink of an eye, your account balance reads, β€œ0.00”.”

      … and, of course, when that happens, how likely are you to reload your account, then enter and hold your new “Sell USDJPY” position any lower than the previous low?

    2. Nada

      Now I am not so sure after that reversal, lol. GBP/JPY and USD/JPY strong. Now it appears we roll over into a DCL and that 106 will have to wait.

  44. JJHarmen

    Gary was right. Time after time, the market shows us just how little geo-political events matter beyond a day or so. The S&P bottomed this morning and hasn’t looked back.

  45. dboz

    Metals decline appears to be somewhat accelerating here. Miners still pretty strong, but for how long? That was a nice short attempt this morning if you took it. If this dives much more, it could get ugly.

    DUST went green.

      1. Nada

        Lol, I have a looong way to go in Gary’s bingo contest before I can get my head above water. I added GLD and SLV puts w/Nov expiration earlier in the day, so hopefully we start the hunt for the DCL. I doubt they want to close this puppy above 1300 on the monthly. Looking for 5 fib for the DCL (1265ish).

  46. bluelagoon

    looking like gold wants to go down further – so was it you dboz that said wait for a reversal tomorrow? good call buddy

    1. Nada

      It should start heading down into the daily cycle low. USDJPY put in a nice bullish reversal. I would suspect 1260-1270 on xauusd for the DCL I know Ped thinks its going much lower, but this will be the back up the truck moment. I wish we would get an opportunity like this in the SM, but the dip buyers keep stopping any meaningful correction.

        1. bluelagoon

          by the way – nice calls Nada on gold – they hit your 1st and 2nd targets and now heading down.

          1. Pedestrian

            Agree, good calls Nada.

            Yes, I do think ultimately we fall quite a bit deeper. It won’t be straight down though so lots of opportunity to trade both directions. We will have a failed yearly gold cycle on our hands soon. There is a chart I follow that indicates we don’t see gold turn bullish until next year. I don’t argue with great charts when they have kept me onside in the past. Meanwhile, we may yet see gold take another run towards its peak before the week is done so there is still time to take the short side bets without having missed much. Good signs all round. I feel terrific!

          2. Nada

            Thanks bluelagoon and Ped and if you turn out correct Ped, then the contracts I opened will be useful with the Nov expiration. Gold is a tricky bugger with all the geopolitical events and the debt ceiling, so the DCL may be erratic.

        2. Nada

          Yes I started a few hours ago. I took GLD Nov 17 124 Puts and SLV Nov 17 16 Puts. I am legging into position, and will build position as we confirm. I hate theta, so I pay the premium for time. I certainly do not expect GLD to take longer than 2 weeks to carve out a DCL, but in case it turns out to be more than that I like to have some time.

  47. zkotpen


    “Summers over for Wall Street start of September.
    I doubt traders are coming back and saying to themselves,
    β€œhey, lets crash the stock market”.”

    Love this — reads like a Haiku that
    William Carlos Williams would have written,
    had he been a financial analyst
    instead of a doctor.

    1. Pedestrian

      Ha! Yeah it is a little Haiku-ish.

      Hey, are you me by any chance? I have been getting accused of that a lot lately.

  48. zkotpen


    Glad to see you’ve joined some of us in the “I <3 Astrology" camp.

    Well guess what, my friend? It's Mercury Retrograde 'til September 5, and I've been feeling a powerful revisitation of August, 2012.

    I believe you are, too.

    1. Gary Post author

      I keep telling you we live in a world of managed markets.

      Why does everyone keep ignoring me?

      This has the potential to ignite the vertical phase of the bubble.

      1. JJHarmen

        Gary, I believe you but why in the world would the PPT allow the SM to go into a bubble when they know that all bubbles end in crashes? Isn’t that exactly what they want to avoid?

  49. Spanky

    previous couple of DCs for yen and gold have been about 40 days. I believe we are on day 35 right now, which gives us probably a week’s worth of potential downside if the DC has in fact topped (looks awfully convincing today).

    Should be interesting to say the least.

  50. Bigdaddy

    I just bought 2000 USLV at 12.99 . Now I have a toatl of 2500 shares. I have a good feeling that the silver rally is far from over.

  51. palobar

    @Spanky, I respect what you are looking at. Note that today Gold was 16816 and 2184 days from its all-time low and all-time high respectively. God would never allow the younger to control the older.

  52. butch

    Triple top breakout performance stats from fidelity, 10000 patterns analyzed . Long story short: 91% chance of 1375 before 1300. Do not short this unless you like to lose..

  53. zkotpen


    I want to add, on the topic of Jackson Hole, 2012. I was a total month 0 newbie back then, so I visited some links on some financial websites… in the margin on google finance, Seeking Alpha, that kind of stuff… links I never click on any more.

    In October, 2012, I came upon your blog posts from Jackson Hole and the September, 2012, FOMC meeting. You really nailed those calls. So I subscribed to SMT premium in the final days of October. And then came November. And then December.

    With all of that dΓ©jΓ  vu looking so hauntingly familiar, during this Mercury Retrograde, I recommend looking more closely at the currency pairs I have suggested before drawing your conclusions about “dollar weakness”. The dollar is not so weak against the GBP and JPY, which rank 3rd and 4th among the world’s reserve currencies.

    Tell me the GBPUSD pair has not put in a YCH earlier this month…

    Tell me the current GBPUSD rally is something greater than a mere daily cycle bounce, in an intermediate cycle decline.

    Take advantage of today’s pullback in JPY to load up leveraged long JPY, even with contest money, if the dollar is so weak across the board.

    DXY is EURUSD-heavy, and sure, that currency pair is going for its YCH, after 8 months of strong rallying. I agree with you 100% on that point!

    Also, as I’ve stated for nearly a year now, gold breaking that trendline from 2011 only confirms 2015 as a major low in the intermediary cycle traditionally called the “3 year” cycle… which we have agreed about for quite some time now. You called that low in gold in December, 2015, and I was convinced by Feb 1, 2016, after GDX put in its low. But it does not confirm anything for the primary cycle one degree higher — the traditionally named “8 year” cycle.

    Jackson Hole has come and gone. Next up, September, FOMC.

    Now might be a good time to stay out of the china shop πŸ˜‰

  54. Spanky

    Would be incredibly sweet if today turned out to be a bear trap. The odds are low, but I can dream.

  55. zkotpen


    “Hey, are you me by any chance? I have been getting accused of that a lot lately.”

    You know, I was thinking of posting something to that effect in response to some detractor or other who compared us a few days ago. The thought occurred to me, I was actually thinking of Being Pedestrian, but then Pedestrian popped in and said, “hey, I’m being me already… why don’t you try Being John Malkovich”…

    … and actually, the second time I had my head shaved — for artistic purposes — the painter/barber would not let me look in the mirror, but rather, stopped in mid-shave to take a photo…

  56. Spanky

    GDX closed very strong on the hourly chart. I’ll take it. Again, not expecting much over the next 2 days or so (consolidation), which is exactly what today’s hourly chart looks like.

  57. zkotpen


    “Triple top breakout performance stats from fidelity, 10000 patterns analyzed . Long story short: 91% chance of 1375 before 1300. Do not short this unless you like to lose..”

    Only caveat here is, empirical data is absolutely and certainly not science. It lacks that one teeny, tiny, little detail:

    It does not follow scientific method. Namely, there’s no hypothesis — just gather data and crunch. Can be useful, but not scientific. And when we’re talking about natural or social phenomena, science beats empirical data, hands down, since the 17th century.

    I recommend much greater flexibility than 91% odds would imply.

    1. Spanky

      Cryto’s don’t satisfy Mises’s regression theorem. They have no intrinsic value except as a medium of exchange (in stark contrast to gold), and thus can’t be “money.” i.e., You can’t do anything with a bitcoin.

      1. Americano

        Mises? Sounds like something penicillin is used on after holiday in the Philippines. Market is deciding & will continue to. Applied math > Theoretical math.

  58. Lenapowich

    I’m happy with the miners today. GDXJ closed up with gold down. How can that be bearish?

  59. Strike

    Nada’s 1260-1270 target as the correction low looks viable now that the first break of the $USD 91.88 level failed and is back to 92.40. RSI(5) is overbought so we need a breather.
    However, Ped’s 950 proclamation seems overdone. He might be right, but I personally wouldn’t bet on it.

    1. Nada

      The top has been hard to call, so I suspect this time will be no different. A good reason why I started dipping my toe in and using puts with Nov expiration is because gold still scares me a bit. I want to see more selling over the next few days to confirm.

    2. Pedestrian

      We are going there if the yearly cycle in gold fails as I suspect it will. Nobody believes it possible but the thing is, if we do not break above the 2016 highs it means something else is going to happen and in a bear market (like this one) that does not include trading sideways. We obviously need more time for the pattern I am following to resolve. For example it matters what the bounce looks like after this impending decline has ended. There is a widespread assumption in the technical community that this is all canned and packaged but I don’t think so despite some very compelling chart work done by others. Should golds next bounce fail to exceed the current highs set this week there are going to be a lot of sad gold faces around here.

      I am confident that my analysis is going to be the correct one when all is said and done.

      Gold has NOT seen its final lows yet. This is STILL a bear market.

  60. Lenapowich

    BTW, I don’t see any resemblance between Pedestrian and Zkotpen except that both like looking at their own words but isn’t that true to for nearly reveryone?

  61. butch

    @zkotpen . I know your not Ped. Ped writes in English. After 6 months I finally deciphered a portion of one of your posts. You usually lose me after “zkotpen”

      1. zkotpen

        Yeah, me too… which is why I need to hide that picture and why I keep putting off watching that movie… I might get lost in John Malkovich… or that other Jon, from Jersey, whom some South Americans seem to think I look like!

  62. zkotpen


    Good point. You are awesome. You have great wisdom and knowledge. I guess I need to ask you:

    Where is gold in its yearly cycle right about now? GDX?

    How about the dollar?

    What’s your take on USDJPY? If you’ve sold that pair, what is your target for exit?

    In your own words, of course…

    Bon voyage (to Regina!)

    1. Lenapowich

      Zkot, your post doesn’t make sense to me. I have GDXJ. That’s it. I make no claim to know much of anything about USDJPY, cycles, etc so what are you talking about?
      Was your post meant for someone else perhaps?

  63. Spanky

    $gold closed with a gravestone doji candle. It’s not a deathknell necessarily, but it probably means we are in for some sideways consolidation at a minimum. Can’t envision a higher high this week (doesn’t mean it can’t happen)


    Interesting how the gap between the spot price and futures price have gotten wider over the last few months. If you look at a longer term chart, it is clear that GLD is slowly losing value vs $gold over time.

    1. Nada

      We had 42m of BOW for GLD from what I can see so far. The topping process (if one) is always a laborious process.

  64. Pedestrian

    Dollar hit bottom today. Euro hit its top. Yen posted an outside reversal and Swissy put up a big red candle. GLD finished the day lower as gold fell back. Platinum is ready to be shorted. Silver has a little life in it still but not for very long and equity markets bounced beautifully off support levels.

    All is well with the world.

  65. zkotpen


    “Why does everyone keep ignoring me?”

    I’m not ignoring you, mate!

    I just queued up Seal’s “Soul” for the thousandth time!

    Once again:

    ~ cheers ~

  66. zkotpen


    Seems like last year, or early this year, we were talking about that big bear low in gold coming in the mid to late 2020s.

    Why did you change your outlook to more clear and present danger?

    Also, why increase the target to $950?

    1. Pedestrian

      My bottom target has been in the 950 to 960 region for years already.

      Basically I am looking at sub 1000 which is a number that has all but been ruled out by almost everyone other than yours truly. I don’t mention it anymore though since there are too many people on this site who are unable to distinguish between forecasting and trading. And the moment gold rises a few bucks they are jumping around their keyboards like rabid monkeys saying “I told you so…gold is going UP”!

      But little has changed my outlook over the years and I still believe we are going to deeper lows. The only thing that has altered my thinking is that time is running out to get there and since price and time both matter its possible the day arrives and I have to abandon my target.

      Today is not that day though.

    2. Bigdaddy

      Talking to yourself again Pedo? Zkotpen asks a question so you can respond and pretend you are clever. Buddy, you need a shrink to help you get your head straightened out. Even my dog can see through your games.

  67. zkotpen

    The only fundamentals for gold are (1) store of value; and (2) jewelry. Any subjective value ascribed is simply not fundamental.

    The former suggests something just above $500, based on CPI, 1913-2017 vis a vis price of gold over the same period. Tack on some jewelry value, which I have not quantified (sorry!).

    -Money printing is not fundamental.
    -Bitcoin having “no intrinsic value” is not fundamental.
    These arguments remind me of a similar not fundamental but populist argument I used to hear in Latin America, that it costs more than 1 peso, 1 sol, whatever, to mint one of those coins. It is populist speak, by the way, that has made me lose interest in learning language — it sounds much better as indecipherable, modulated white noise.

    The value of currency is that of exchange, which is huge, and taken for granted by most humans roaming the earth, as most things are. Imagine if you were a miller, and this week you wanted some eggs, a camera, some ibuprofen, a book, some stereo headphones, some skin lotion, a pair of sandals, an external hard drive, a pair of sunglasses, some dental work, some cookies & cream ice cream, and you didn’t have money, because there was no printed paper or crypto currency or coins whose nominal value was lower than their cost of production. All you had was some good quality milled lumber, of your own excellent production.

    Now go around and try to fill your shopping list… and then go grocery shopping…

    … oh, your spouse reminds you, add to your shopping list, a four pack of toilet paper, which is quite useful, and also taken for granted.

    Gold goes to the area of the 2008 pullback, sometime in the 2020s. Gold gets in line with the CPI, and represents value, without exaggerating or underestimating it.

  68. palobar

    I just checked the numbers for the USD. Interestingly, today the Dollar made exactly one full circle from the all-time high in 1985. If today’s low holds by the end of the week, then the bounce could be stronger to what most people expect.

  69. Pedestrian

    Looking to trade a long bond price decline. TLT has topped out for the time being and now the reversal comes for the next 5 or 6 months. Maybe TMV, maybe not. We will see tomorrow. Falling bonds are negative for gold (rising rates) so you bulls had best keep your eyes peeled on what TLT does next. Currently it is posting an outside month and ready to cycle back down.

    1. butch

      TLT has just completed a 11 month cup and handle pattern and is targeting 137. Look at the weekly chart. it’s doing the same thing it did previously

  70. zkotpen


    OK so: Where is GDXJ in its overall scheme of price movement over time?

    And I trust you have a practical answer for:

    How much have you put at risk in this trade?

    What is your exit strategy?

    How did you choose to enter that trade (and not something else)?

    I’m not asking you to post your specific figures or private details. Rather, your reward:risk outlook on the trade, and whether you are committed to that outlook as a practical matter.

    The 3rd question also is of general (not private) interest, about decision making in financial markets.

    1. dboz

      This is the type of comment that just grates on me. Instead of helping you just try to make someone with less knowledge and skills just feel stupid and over whelmed.

      Why do you continue to do this instead of just throwing out some help to her?

      She can choose to trust it or not. Follow it or not. See if it turns out correct or not.

      Not everyone has the time skills or experience to derive at those answers. If they did, they would probably NOT be seeking out financial blogs.

      1. Bigdaddy

        I agree with Dboz. Why is Zkotpen picking on Lena? He did the same damm thing to Robert until Robert finally disappeared. Somebody said here today that Zkotpen and Pedestrian are the same person and I think it’s true. They both behave like goofs and seem talk back and forth like someone talking with themselves.

  71. zkotpen


    Do you see what I mean on USDJPY?

    Sure, the yearly chart shows a little more downside… but just look at the hara kiri you’d have committed on your account if you had tried to hold a leveraged position all the way down on each of the 4 moves below 109 this month… the reversal was devastating, if one didn’t have a stop loss in place.

    Makes me wonder how USDJPY can go any lower as a practical matter,…?

  72. palobar

    Yes. I am paying close attention to this market. The market has passed an important turning point a few days ago. Based, on the cyclical analysis I did this summer, the downtrend may continue into 2018 after which I expect the trend to reverse with the uptrend move going into 2021. The current downtrend should be interrupted by two strong counter trend rallies. We are approaching the first one. I expect a very strong move to begin in September. I would be happy to narrow the date of the low (+/- 3 days) for you or anyone else who might be interested, but I am not confident with my data file which goes back to 1955. Prior to that date, I have the price and dates for some major highs and lows which I found from various sources. However, yesterday, while discussing wheat with some of my friends, we ended up having different dates for those major highs and lows! I have contacted a very well known data provider who informed me that they could give me continous data from 1922. The price for each year is about $5-6. So the file for wheat will cost me $500-$600. I plan to buy the file by the eoy but I have several obligations right now.

  73. dboz

    Does anyone else see the weekly gold stochastic starting to roll over? Not saying we are going down big or anything but it appears a pullback of more significance could be coming in the next 2-3 weeks?

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold might be getting a little stretched above the 10 WMA but the TSI is still trending strongly higher with no divergence.

      There will be corrections along the way, but gold should have 5-10 more weeks yet before the final intermediate top. I believe it will at least make it to 1400 this year.

      1. dboz

        Thanks. Maybe we will get to the point where we just stay overbought, but definitely curling. May provide an entry is all I am looking for. I know if I wait too long there won’t be any good opportunities.

  74. palobar

    I found another instance where today’s geometry gave an important high (August 2013). That high is still holding. After that date, however, I observed only lows. So, in my view, that is an important development. If today’s high ends up being the weekly high:

    Short-term = Today’s high could be an important top and I would not be surprised if we get a meaningful pullback.

    Long-term = Today’s high and the December 2016 low share the same geometry which has been defining all the major highs and lows since 1971. In addition, today’s high in my work is more important due the price and time relationships from the 2016 high. Therefore, in my view, the December 2016 low
    and this week’s high, in my view, are key points to watch. If we close under the Dec’2016 low, a new low below $1000 is almost guaranteed. On the other hand, if we move down from here, then whenever Gold breaks today’s high (next week or next month), will represent a major BUY signal and I will certainly not going to wait until the $1376 is broken.

    Cycle analysis is very useful. However, it can be dangerous if applied incorrectly. I suggest you go and read the comments here about Gold in early July right after gold peaked. The message at that time was that the intermediate trend was up and gold was in the early phase of its ICL. Gold dropped almost 20%. That is the reason why I am cautious short-term on Gold. Today’s numbers were very strong to be ignored.

  75. palobar

    Today’s development (see above analysis) in my view, means that the probablity of Gold breaking the 2015 low is much lower now.

    1. Jimsee

      Is the geometry based on sq12? If it is gann there are a few variants I’m aware of. the similarities to past turns sounds promising, thanks for sharing πŸ™‚

  76. vin

    Gold is creeping up again. Looks like people have forgotten re. nasdaq and have been paying all their attention to gold/golds! WHY? Gary had firmly said that nasdaq will MORE than double by July next year (in one year)! That is an incredible opportunity to make a great dough.

    Re. golds I am very thankful to Pedestrian for posting the abx chart a few days ago to prove his point that gold was headed down in a big way. Right then I had thanked him. And, based on that chart I took some gold positions. So, far so good. In fact today I wrote call options on a couple of these position.

    I am not smart like many here. At present I am a bit uncertain. People are talking about 1400 gold by the end of the year. My questions to the experts is: will gold exceed before 2018Feb? probability? Thanx.

    BTW gold is creeping up right now.

    1. vin

      will gold exceed $1500/ounce before 2018Feb? probability? Thanx.
      ……. sorry for all the typos including this one.

  77. Bigdaddy

    I have been doing some studying and I don’t think the stock market is going up very far and might even start back down first thing tomorrow. Gold and silver have lots more juice left in them so buy any dips for profit. Above all, ignore Pedestrian and if you can understand his alter-ego, that being Zkotpen, ignore him too.

    1. vin

      Hihihi! I don’t read ZkoXXXX, I find that some crews are lose.

      Thanks for your response. What are your views on gold exceeding 1500 by 2018 Feb?

  78. Bigdaddy

    I don’t know if gold will exceed $1500 by Feb. Nobody can answer that question because crystal balls do not exist.

  79. Pedestrian

    Looks like gold will take another run at the highs of yesterday as I suspected it might. So says the look of the hourly chart at this wee time in the morning. But will it break out above the prior peak from yesterday? Or will it fall back before hitting new highs?

    Today may be the acid test for the bulls to prove their case.

    Some of them seem to think that gold will continue higher despite overbought conditions. We know that because they are long and holding on for more. Hoping against hope for a precious metals endorphin rush. The fact is, they could be right. I don’t have a crystal ball that’s any better than the next guy. Just an alternative technical outlook that disagrees with the uber-bullish case.

    In my technical version we have peaked for the YEAR. It’s all over but the crying until this falling cycle completes. A simple channel line on a WEEKLY chart helps make the case (it is but one of many confirmations I use).

    Using the lowest point at the furthest left side of the chart (which is December 2011) and running a channel line so that it touches the peak of 2016 gives us a result which is almost precisely at yesterdays high price. Check it yourself in the link below….

    See what I mean? Gold has hit its top . It is done like dinner and ain’t going any higher for the time being. That does not mean it can’t break out in a few weeks time of course. It only tells us there is an obvious short here that arrived at a nice-easy-to-read technical resistance line.

    So to my eyes, gold is a clear sell as the risk is to the downside.

    The decline should get underway as soon as gold finishes retesting the peak of yesterday. That means it will most likely get underway in earnest by Tuesday the 2nd of September (next week). Monday is the Labour day holiday so stay in bed.

    If this is a bull however then gold will be bouncing next week and you can all call me a damned fool.

    Until then, the highest probabilities indicated by oversold conditions and a variety of common technicals warn us that golds next direction is going to be down. Even on a cyclical basis which is obvious as hell by just using your eyeballs to examine a daily chart, gold has peaked.

    Don’t sweat it people. Just go with the flow. I am short metals and miners now.

    1. Pedestrian

      Note for the technical people: The channel line I chose is not random. It has near perfect parallel mates both above and below it as you will observe on a monthly gold chart so its significance can’t be understated. This is all the more so because the line extends back in time so far and the 2011 point is the lowest point of that year that is on the bear side of the chart. Here is the monthly.

    2. Pedestrian

      Apologies, the first trading day in September is the Tuesday the 5th, not the 2nd as I wrote above.

  80. zkotpen


    “This is the type of comment that just grates on me. Instead of helping you just try to make someone with less knowledge and skills just feel stupid and over whelmed.”

    Then be grated, as your reaction is utterly contrary, diametrically opposed to the truth and any semblance of sense. Indeed, YOU are the one doing the grating.

    It is clear and explicit that I asked Ms Powich four basic questions: Her take on the market security she has put money into, as well as the three absolute questions that MUST be answered by any person who takes responsibility for the outcome of their trades, before putting one penny at risk. These questions MUST — not should — be answered, but in practice, the questions are often ignored entirely. Nothing overwhelming about them at all — they are basic and fundamental.

    Furthermore, I laid out these questions in the neutral, objective fashion of a scientist, one who seeks to be emotionally detached while observing the object of their study. That despite Ms. Powich’s several negative outbursts directed toward me personally. My comment is impersonal, instructive, and useful for ALL PEOPLE WHO PUT RESOURCES AT RISK IN MARKETS. NOT JUST FINANCIAL MARKETS!!!

    Most humans round the globe — whose market behavior I have observed far more than most up close and in person (not on a screen, processed, produced and projected by 3rd parties) — enter into markets assuming the market owes them a profit. Their almost universal attitude (except for the successful ones) is one of “well, I’m opening a position, a shop, a stand, a job application, a contract on a property, etc., therefore it is my divine right to make a profit. To the contrary, someone is depriving me of my divine rights, and I will conclude with absolute certainty that they are using some or other power to take advantage of me personally and deprive me of profit. As a defense mechanism, I will, therefore, try to pre-empt their power play to deprive me of my divine rights by social maneuvers, because that’s where I might have a power advantage over them.”

    I’ve heard these excuses/this approach from people — market participants — in dozens of countries where I’ve lived for more than a month, often several months or even years. I see how they organize their markets, ask them questions about their business enterprise, and carefully consider their replies. It’s almost universal — circle the wagons and rally around our populist cause.

    Frequent objects of blame: The system, people (who don’t spend and/or lack appreciation), corrupt politicians, the United States, China, money, people with money, people with power, smart people, attractive people, their home country, their home country’s enemy or neighbor, and so on.

    Despite some of Ms. Powich’s prior negative remarks toward me, I simply laid out some basic questions, which must be answered by a prudent market participant in any market. The questions are in no way overwhelming. If one feels overwhelmed by them, one should take that as an indication that one is not yet prepared to put resources at risk in a particular market. One should then engage in preparation, and not lash out based on their populist inclinations and social maneuvers. Circling the wagons and rallying around the cause is not the solution, not even the correct path to the solution — assuming, of course, one’s goal in trading is making a profit — which is not always the case.

  81. dboz

    Energy is a mess. Looking more and more likely like DOWN is the path of least resistance. Going to stay clear unless a good counter rally appears. I am done with GUSH. It is a volatile nasty nasty stock with no good coming from the risk.

  82. dboz

    Going to wait for a miners pullback and then look for an entry.

    I will see how next week goes in the SM. Big down drafts can often occur after rises into holidays.

    I have a few stocks that are starting to look juicy But need a little more time to simmer.

  83. zkotpen


    “Gold might be getting a little stretched above the 10 WMA but the TSI is still trending strongly higher with no divergence.”

    I agree with using the 10 week time frame for the intermediate cycle moving average — around 48-50 trading days, so roughly syncs up with the 50 day SMA.

    I do not come to the same conclusion about momentum on my intermediate chart. I am seeing precisely the momentum divergence I look for when making these assessments, between the previous intermediate peak on April 17, and the current one. (Yes, I’m saying the June peak was an overthrow high during the intermediate decline — the corollary to the undercut low).

    Regarding your momentum indicator, remember the present week is hardly half complete until this morning’s data comes in. I don’t think this week’s candle will look like it does in your chart by 5pm Friday, market time. You may end up seeing that divergence by that time. If the week closes looking as bullish or more than the way it looks on your chart, then sure, I’m more likely to adjust my outlook in a more bullish direction — not overwhelmingly so, but in that direction.

  84. jake

    More parroting of moving average non-sense, where we’re your moving averages when AU was at 1207 on July 7th?

    1. zkotpen

      still.. a great question!!!

      Shortly after July 7, I was already calling for GDX to exceed 23.86

      and your posts still offer zero value, other than Seal’s “Soul” — which I just listened to again — tnx, sir garbage person!

  85. Gary Post author

    Folks the opportunity right now is in the stock market that has been correcting for the last month.

    Not in buying metals that have been rallying for 7 weeks. You need to take down leverage in metals and put on leverage in stocks.

    Both are going higher but it’s late in the gold cycle and there is risk of a correction. You don’t want to be leveraged during a correction.

  86. Goild

    Good morning,

    Sold 1K shares of USO.
    Will wait for USO to dive
    WEAT continues to sink.
    XLE might be reversing to go up.

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