Multiple bubbles/multiple chances to make money

It’s really a shame that so many people are too stubborn to see what’s happening. I guess the belief in gold just makes people stupid.

Folks we have multiple bubbles that are going to form over the next several years. The first one is occurring in bitcoin right now. But that will hardly be the last, and it’s a little late to be jumping on the bitcoin bubble. It’s already 6 months into the vertical phase.

So many traders refuse to see the bubble forming in stocks. They refuse to consider any investment other than gold as being valid. The same thing that will eventually drive the bubble phase in gold is now driving the bubble in bitcoin, and the bubble just starting in the stock market.

I’ve tried everything short of beating people over the head to get them to focus on the stock market right now. That’s where the next bubble will occur, and where the easy money will be for the next 6-8 months. Sadly most gold bugs just continue to ignore me.

Once the bitcoin and stock bubbles have run their course one should take their profits and plow it into the metals market as that’s where the last bubble will occur.

Central banks have created a once in the history of the world opportunity to profit from multiple bubbles.

Why limit yourself to one bubble that’s still a ways off when you can profit from two or three of them?

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133 thoughts on “Multiple bubbles/multiple chances to make money

  1. Bigdaddy

    I’m back. Godamm dog took after a rabbit and disappeared for a while. He didn’t come back with a rabbit in his mouth so i guess he didn’t catch one (never has but the stupid shit still tries) .
    I see not much has changed in my absence. No fill on USLV yet. The miners are not doing so hot and PED says gold is going down to 1200 but i don’t listen to his squawking anyway so they will probably recover.

      1. brii33

        No I don’t think so either gary , that’s why I feel weakness in equity’s isn’t over into aug 22 . I have a hArd time believing it’s off to new highs

  2. Bigdaddy

    Oil stocks going to hell. Did i not tell you guys that it was not the time to be in oils? I will give you the signal when it is time so stay tuned.

    1. Gary Post author

      Weren’t you the one telling us that you had contacts in the energy business telling you to buy because oil was going up?

          1. Pedestrian

            Like the Goombas who still don’t get that Canadian dollars are correlated to oil and have been for years with a very high .78 average. CAD has been falling for two weeks already and now oil is getting pummeled. Who could have guessed?

          2. Gary Post author

            If that’s the case then the loonie has completed a major YCL and this will only be a temporary pull back into a minor DCL before another leg up. So oil will just drop into a minor DCL before another leg up.

          3. Pedestrian

            Possibly. I don’t know for sure Gary but right now I am treating the twin peaks in 2016 and 2017 as if they are a double top. They just have that Batman ears look about them.

            Incidentally, the Canadian dollar had a major top around the same time as gold in 2011 and an important bottom in the same month as gold during December 2015. During the intervening 5 years it fell steeply and continuously with gold. Its really an interesting comparison since we rarely ever talk about how CAD is correlated to gold but the monthly chart proves they have move together on a monthly basis for years.

            Now the point I want to make here is that the Canadian dollar can *possibly* be used as a proxy to determine what is going to happen to gold. This is a little off the beaten path but look at it for yourself and see if you can draw a conclusion.

            Monthly chart of Canadian Dollar — Does it foretell golds future?
            http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=6C&p=m1

    2. Christian

      Actually, I’m pretty sure you’re the one that told us to BUY OIL thanks to your ‘insider info’ Lol! WTF

    3. Gary Post author

      Enter the challenge BD and make your calls in real time with percentages and then we can judge whether you actually make any money. Until you do that you are just full of hot air, no different than any of the other Monday morning quarterbacks trading perfectly in hindsight.

      1. Bigdaddy

        All my trades have been posted here within a minute. So who’s in the lead in the game and who do we know them by here? maybe you are getting good ideas from the best guys in your game?

          1. Lenapowich

            Why all the unpleasantness people? Of ALL of you, I don’t think any have been as honest as Bigdaddy when it comes to being open about his wins and losses. Just because he doesn’t talk charts and waves and all that technical stuff doesn’t mean he should be picked on. You men are sometimes like a pack of wolves.

  3. Christian

    Gary โ€” I don’t understand the point of this post. You’re not saying anything you haven’t already said a million freakin times..!

    1. Christian

      C’mon Gary! Give me something useful, give me something I can sink my teeth into ๐Ÿ™‚ The usual rhetoric is getting old sugar pie..!

  4. Bigdaddy

    The two smarty pants have forgotten that oil did go up exactly as i was told it would and now it’s going down, but there will be no new lows. What, are you so naive to think it would go straight up? My sources say it’s going back up this fall but it’s too early to buy, so wait for my signal instead of being smart asses and buying at 50 bucks like some recommended.

    1. Gary Post author

      If you ever get the balls to make real time calls then maybe someone would listen to your nonsense.

      If you want I will publish your calls in real time for everyone.

      But I have to have price and percentage, and I have to have it within a minute of making the trade so I can verify. None of this after the fact shit that so many people are fond of.

      1. Lenapowich

        Gary, I have big lady “balls” and I listen to Bigdaddy’s “nonsense”. I think he is a lot smarter than most here.

  5. Don

    Is Christian in the game? Nope. Is Pedestrian in the game? Nope. Neither am I. So, why BD’s ass? Are you saying that anyone posting on this site MUST be in your friggin game Gary?

    I don’t have any problem following BD’s trades as he does post pretty damm quick. Give the guy a break.

    1. Pedestrian

      I’m not allowed in the game because I am a day trader. But you have no excuse you chicken little.

      1. Don

        ROLF! Too funny. Pedestrian, making a couple of quick in and out trades in six months does not qualify you as a day trader. Stop making yourself look so foolish.

        1. Pedestrian

          You are not off the hook Don. Join the contest or stop squawking about how bad everyone else is. Your record so far is abysmal and you are obviously too scared to make any calls ahead of time. You still never answered me about how high you think gold will go (I said we have 1200 in our sights on this cycle which you mocked without offering your own target).

          Stick your neck out chicken.

          Cluck-cluck-cluck

          1. Don

            You asked me how high gold will go? Must have missed that. Here it is: I have no idea so why would I pretend and pick a target out of the air like the an amateur such as yourself?

            I am long gold miners and silver with the expectation both are headed higher and not down to 1200 first.

          2. Pedestrian

            That’s some commitment. Big risk there Don. I don’t know how you get through a trading day by just guessing since you obviously have no idea what is going on. You are good at criticizing others though without ever having skin in the game.

            So what stocks did you buy?

  6. Steffmeister

    Has Gary slipped of a cliff and landed on his head here?

    Who is the gold bug, look at the background it’s full of gold&silver bars and coins

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m trying to tell you that there is more than one bubble to make money off of.

      Stocks are on the verge of entering their vertical phase like bitcoin. Gold is still in the adolescent phase and a long way still before it starts the bubble phase. It has to recover 1900 first and that’s going to take time. Maybe the better part of two years.

  7. Lenapowich

    It seems to me that GDX is not too concerned with gold’s minor correction. I am not worried about my investment.

  8. Don

    Actually, the two biggest blowhards here very rarely post any kind of a trade unless it’s well after the fact, that being Pedestrian and Zkotpen ( whom I suspect are the same person). They are more inclined to be armchair idea men (man).

    1. Gary Post author

      Pure and simple. There is absolutely no reason not to enter the challenge. It’s absolutely free but I’m offering a real cash prize.

      There is only one reason why anyone wouldn’t take the chance and play and that’s because you risk falling far short of the boasting you’ve put out before. It’s why none of the newsletter writers will enter. When they try to claim after the fact that they called perfect bottoms or made huge amounts of money we will have actual proof that they did or didn’t.

      Get in the game you chicken shits.

  9. dboz

    I got whipsawed in energy again today. Was up pretty decent this morning, all my crude turned to crud by mid day and I am getting stopped out again. Very frustrated.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m convinced the only way to make money in energy is to just hang on until the weekly charts return to overbought. Otherwise you just get whipsawed to pieces.

      My limit was no more than 20% in energy trades. Maybe I should revise that down to 10% or less. The sector is stuck.

  10. JJHarmen

    The SM is looking exactly like it has made another V shaped bottom and rocketing back up, probably to new highs. It never stops doing the same thing over and over.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what happens during a bubble phase. At some point the vertical phase begins. You want to make sure you are in before it starts or you risk getting left behind.

      At some point it becomes very risky trying to anticipate corrections as they may stop coming.

      So while I think we have a correction coming in October I may not try to avoid it because if I’m wrong I could miss the beginning of the vertical phase.

  11. dboz

    Biggest issue for me is finding anything that is trending at all. The entire markets just seem to be loaded with chop. May have to get off the ETF band wagon and get into individual stocks. Even harder to find the diamonds but they are out there.

  12. Gary Post author

    The Nasdaq 100 & semis are going to close above the 10 DMA and confirm the DCL. The SPX and Dow may require another day or two.

    1. dboz

      I think caution here is still warranted. Not going long SM for me at this time. Too risky for a down turn still. I picked up another batch on a SPY short today.

  13. Steffmeister

    and I am trying to contribute with very old ancient knowledge and wisdom that still works today. I think that is more important than earning a bit of cash for a short period of time. So if we are going to follow you blindly Gary and one day you decide to shutdown your service, what would happen then? Knowledge and wisdom is priceless and that is how you survive in markets long term. … I like this blog, a lot of posts on a daily basis, it’s alive so to speak.

    I am not interested in posting trades and getting a prize, I am almost economical independent as it is…

    When a blog owner starts to harassing the posters, maybe it’s time to move on!

    1. Steffmeister

      Btw, most of my pension funds are allocated in common stocks like India, China, south&north America, a small company fund in Sweden etc. but I have no passion or drive to post about it.

    2. Gary Post author

      I don’t expect people to follow me blindly. I teach them how to use cycles and sentiment to trade.

      I plan to end my service once the gold bubble is finished.

      I simply got tired of taking flack from people trading after the fact. From here on out everyone is going to have to play by the same rules as me. You make your trades in real time and you give me percentages.

      How many times have we seen people brag about winning trades but then conveniently forget to include the losing trades.

      As I’ve pointed out many many times, one can win 80-90% of the time and still lose money. So no more of this horseshit chest beating every time one of you gets a call right. We are going to see how many of you actually make long term lasting gains. Not just who got today’s trade right.

    3. Nada

      Nah, I don’t see that. Over the years, I have been in live chat rooms, blogs, paid subscription services, blah blah blah. It’s all the same. Traders post in hindsight and talk about their huge wins in the market. Funny thing is, when I have been in chat services that required real-time entries and exits BEFORE posting, guess what happened?

      You got it, crickets. They were *ALL* full of shit. You might see a few get a win here and there, but consistently they were losers. So I understand Gary’s frustration with all these hindsight traders, who post – “Oh hey I made 600 dollars today for lunch money”. Who gives a rats ass unless you post the details in real time. Let’s say, you did make 600 dollars – why the hell are they bother telling anyone? One reason. They need their ego fluffed or want people to “think” they are some outstanding trader. Then you have the ones that speak in riddles and give obscure date ranges with no information supporting their claims. Maybe 1 hits, and 20 do not. You will not hear about the 20 they do not, but let me tell you son.. The 1 that hits correctly? Holy shit, watch out.. they will blow up the site. I see this behavior on Tradingview every day. People will post trade ideas and 90% will miss and you will not hear a WORD.. but when they get a correct one, they blow up the site.

      With that said, don’t get my wrong. Gary is one cocky SOB at times, but at least they guy posts in real-time. Ok, rant off.

        1. Nada

          I am not sure what you nailed? Besides, I thought you posted another analysts viewpoints on this board – I have seen you reference them as the “wizard” or give small hints here and there. I really don’t know, because I have not see anything consistent or actual dates and what those dates mean. Its all riddles that can be spun whatever way you wish.

  14. Sassybabe

    I am having a hard time getting excited about buying when the stock market is so high. Why have there been no corrections?

  15. Sassybabe

    I am not sending my trades to anyone. Does that mean I won’t be allowed to make comments in the future?

    1. Gary Post author

      You don’t even have to make the trades in your own portfolio. I just want real time calls with percentage of portfolio.

      There is no risk as the challenge is free but the prize is real.

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL the Duck was telling us months ago that oil would massively outperform gold in the years to come. He was buying OIH at the very top of the rally. I at least waited till it got oversold. In hindsight still too early but miles ahead of Duck.

          I tried to tell him that the first part of the commodity bull was the phase where energy leads. The second phase is almost always lead by a different commodity. This second phase will be led by precious metals and maybe agriculture.

    2. Nada

      He is not saying you have to post trades to him or anyone else. He is saying, **IF** . you come in here and say – “I just made 5k dollars on APPL today from a buy last week”, then don’t bother because no one believes you.

      1. Pedestrian

        I don’t get it. Nobody here is even doing that anymore except Goild. But with him I think he posts those daily lunch money trades just for entertainment. The guy cannot be making out the way he says scalping pennies because he told us he sells at market.

        1. Nada

          Yes, the challenge has stopped a great deal of that Ped. It was occurring from a lot of individuals before and I don’t see too much of it now. Big Daddy is not in the challenge, but he posts his trades for all to see, so his gloating his deserved.

  16. Bv

    Can I buy shares on the LSE for the challenge? On a side note, someone told me to buy “Wrigley Company Limited” during the “bubble” phase. I think they’ve been “‘stuck under the table” and forgotten about myself.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t have access to foreign exchanges so I can’t verify trades. We’re going to have to stick with shares traded on the US exchanges, plus I’m not going to get tangled up in trying to do currency conversions.

    1. Nada

      I am certainly not obtuse to these ideas, I was looking for clarity vs being so obscure. Thanks for the link.

  17. butch

    I post all my trades. I play options and they are not allowed in contest. I’ve made 3 trades this year and posted all here. GDX 28% loss ate cold lunch. miners and gold no longer correlated ( see Spanky). Entered Gold Dec 1300 calls at 1255. Entered Silver Dec 19 calls 17.03. Timing is crucial to my success.

  18. Goild

    Now we are eating in a nice Italian restaurant.
    The JNUG rats are stealing from the longs.
    I got 1000 jnug shares after the close at $17.58.
    Probably will get automatic lunch money tomorrow morning. The rats lure the newbies and pigs, drop the price at the close, and rise the price at the presession At this point the miners are lagging substantially gold. We will see how it turns out.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is the mistake that emotional gold bugs always make. They are forever looking for that rocket launch to the moon. The problem is that that kind of action doesn’t occur during the adolescent phase and middle age of a bull market. It occurs during the final bubble and that is still at least two years away yet.

      Right now there are two markets that are in the rocket launch phase. Clearly the first one is bitcoin. The second will be the stock market. Once those are finished then gold will have its turn.

      1. Spanky

        I don’t care if it’s not an explosion as long as the complex trends upwards.

        Besides, not too long ago, even you yourself were talking about the next leg up being just as good if not better than the baby bull phase.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m going to have to change my stance on that one, although I do think miners can at least test the 2016 highs before this IC tops. It’s not a rocket launch, but its still a respectable gain.

        2. Pedestrian

          The odds seem to say “up” Spanky. For example:

          North Korea risk high = UP
          Debt ceiling means stocks fall = UP
          Gold Seasonality Pattern =UP
          Seasonal autumn stock market correction = UP
          Recent Gold Technical Breakout suggests = UP
          Fed Rate Hike in September = UP
          COT positioning = Down
          Technical Chart Pattern = Down
          European Bank blows a valve and Euro cracks = Down
          RSI and CCI = Down
          Other technical indicators = Indecisive
          Peace breaks out in the world for Christmas = Down

          It’s a tossup maybe. Depends what news you follow. Recently the European debt issue is out of the headlines because of North Korea, nukes and Donald Trump but it has not gone away.

          Personally I am a little undecided but am going to play it on the basis the odds favour a rise immediately following a pullback that looks to be in the cards. My heart tells me gold is going to disappoint though if that is any use to anyone.

          1. dboz

            Due to the nearly 24 hour trading cycle, all commodities can get risky due the Gap up and downs. Especially if in leveraged ETFs. That’s been my concern. Wake up to that 3% drop that hits you for 10% overnight.

          2. Pedestrian

            Platinum down another 9 bucks tonight making it almost a 30 dollar decline since Friday. Gold falling another 9 dollars too making it a 21 dollar loss in the same period. But both will have to go a little lower to qualify as technical breaks in my books so its just a flesh wound so far.

    1. Nada

      Butch quick question, I trade options and futures, but have never tried options on futures like /GC. Can you expand a bit on the decay/slippage? It looks like a nice feature to add as a hedge since FIFO is a drag for US clients. Thanks in advance for the insight.

      1. butch

        The only advantage of future options over futures is you can’t lose more than the price of the option premium . There is time decay and slippage, your timing must be close to perfect.

  19. brii33

    Foxnews reporting our plump fat NK leader Kim is in hiding preparing to launch missles tom for their national holiday . He just won’t quit

  20. victor

    just want to Thank you very much Gary for influence me to buy weakness on SPX on Friday. Used inversed VIX that come up today almost 13%. Sold it thought, can’t give up my “day trading stubbornness” going to buy more expensive now… , hopefully market will test lows again…

  21. Goild

    Gold is sinking and I am wrong. Rather than automatic lunch money I might be paying for someone else lunch(s).
    But wait, getting in is always easy. The real issue is getting out. That is the skill.
    I will have my hands tied as I will not be able to trade at the open tomorrow. Only early in the pre-session, or in the afternoon.
    We shall see how I get ahead…

    1. MagnuM

      You’re actually admitting that you might take a loss?

      No, please tell us tomorrow how you somehow miraculously recovered from a gap-down. No proof required of course, just let us know.

  22. Gary Post author

    Watch the semi’s tomorrow for a possible breakout of the triangle. Once they breakout we should see a powerful run to 1200. That will take the rest of the market up with it.

  23. Pedestrian

    Here is a commentary I thought was interesting. It was a blog post by Martin Armstrong this morning commenting on moving averages, a topic that’s always been a pet peeve of mine since some traders put so much emphasis on MA crossovers. (Death Crosses and Golden Crosses are popular examples).

    Anyway, Martin answers a subscriber inquiry by saying essentially the same thing I have been contending which is that MA’s are useless for predictive purposes because they do little more than confirm what has already happened in the past.

    He writes: “Moving averages and stochastics are nice confirming tools. They are incapable of forecasting a high or low”.

    This comment might not seem too important at first glance. But consider for a moment how Martin actually works. If you follow him you will know he makes heavy use of support and resistance lines and trend channels. These are excellent for forecasting and are a highly visual tool as the work is done as overlays directly on a chart rather than through the less accessible and complex mathematical approaches. By charting with trendlines it is possible for anyone to do respectable chart work and come to fair conclusions. Just avoid the impulse to put weight on moving averages when projecting your ideas into the future. More often than not the assumptions will fall flat on their face.

    Moving Averages and Stochastics Not Trading Tools — Martin Armstrong
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/armstrongeconomics101/training-tools/moving-averages-and-stochastic-not-trading-tools-but-good-confirming-tools/

  24. Steffmeister

    #Nada

    “I am not sure what you nailed? Besides, I thought you posted another analysts viewpoints on this board โ€“ I have seen you reference them as the โ€œwizardโ€ or give small hints here and there. I really donโ€™t know, because I have not see anything consistent or actual dates and what those dates mean. Its all riddles that can be spun whatever way you wish.”

    /I have to strongly disagree, I’ve posted info, charts and dates frequently in June/July/August. I can show you another chart to spell it out for you, more on that later. I do not post multiple times a day bcos my calls are consistent, they do not change by the daily niose and I do have a fulltime job …

    Riddles, that was just kindergarten stuff, if you can not figure out that GV means Geopolitical Violence that was mentioned in the text then your chances to figure out the market riddle is very slim. The other “riddle” mentioned were only a shortcut for a name also mentioned in the text. MWW =Michael Warner Wilson … like I said a 10year old would have figured it out but not Nada and Pedestrian.

    1. Nada

      @Steffmeister not sure of all the posts you made on the blog, why you think that post was what I was referring to in regards to riddles? I didn’t ask you you define the acronyms in that post. You made it clear you were regurgitate some other authors ideas, so nothing personal.

      1. Steffmeister

        Steffmeister
        August 12, 2017 at 3:45 am
        We got several bullish factors for gold:
        * Geopolitical Violence at a high level for the coming month
        * Seasonality
        * End of Summer Doldrums, volume will pick up in miners and related indices.
        * The British Petroleum gap up breakout still in play

        Steffmeister
        August 12, 2017 at 4:12 am
        The G-V tells me that August and in particular September will contain many events which will have a lasting changing effect with regards to geopolitical and individual power and its distribution.
        That ties in, as it happens, with Myles Wilson Walkerโ€™s (MWW) …
        The G-V does what is required. I have looked for precision and reliability in timing and G-V that has it. But MWW is good and is PM, and better known for their Gann research. MWW sees eclipses as triggering later, after a time period passes. Like lighting a fuse, the length of which MWW did a lot of work on. G-V concurs in itโ€™s own unique way. This period of extreme G-v will be a lengthy period of contested power for a duration not often seen outside large wars.
        G-V says Sept is one long lunatics-in-power-fest from start to end. And into October too.
        If I have to pick crisis moments, from out of the big extended crisis โ€ฆ. 3, 11, 16-17, 21,27. So the 11th is in the hot periods. But based on what I think this means thatโ€™s like saying the building is on fire for a month and we will hear extra sounds from within on those particular days and the 48 hour periods around those days.

        Pedestrian
        August 12, 2017 at 4:27 am
        No idea what he is talking about since I donโ€™t know what G-V or MWW mean. Can you elaborate a little so the post makes sense.

        Steffmeister
        August 12, 2017 at 6:38 am
        Read it again, GV is mentioned in the first sentence, MWW a little bit later โ€ฆ
        GV is hidden in the text above, I know you can find it Ped, look at the first Star

        Nada
        August 12, 2017 at 12:41 pm
        Why talk in riddles, why not post the link to site or define your acronyms?

  25. zkotpen

    Steffmeister,

    You have to remember, Nada does not have a single original thought in his “brain”

    1. Nada

      Aww, look who decided to pop in after he promised he was “moving on”, our zkotpen darling. Good morning princess.

  26. zkotpen

    Pedestrian

    “????”

    Surely you recall the days… not too long ago… when we used to have some excellent discussions round here leading up to FOMC minutes and meetings.

    Thanks to the plagiarists and the blather, the level of conversation is the least market-oriented I’ve ever seen on this blog… but by all means, enjoy, if that’s your thing!

  27. Nada

    Lol, I sure woukd like to meet zkotpen folks. They did a number on him in regards to building his self worth. He makes his first trade less than a month ago and now people on the blog are stealing his ideas.

  28. Goild

    Good morning,

    Placed an order to sell JNUG at $17.18 to loose the $403 made yesterday. Let us see if it is served in the pre-session.
    I have posted several times losses, of $33K, $20K something, $14K on my first trading day in Asia, $20K last Monday on the reversal as I had bought 24K JNUG shares at $16.6 tagging $15.75, then to get lucky. I mentioned I am in the second tier making between $50K and $100K. When you consider the time and level of education this is not a great performance.
    A reasonable performance would be to be in the first tier or more than $100K per year.

    We are in the SMT which is becoming or is a premier blog, we are supposed to be doing quite well. However, the comments here do not quite show that. I am getting crumps and except for Kruzoe it is not clear how many are in the second or first tier. Perhaps the performance for we posters is pathetic.

    Gary appears to be the only one doing superbly.

    1. Nada

      @Goild surprised you are selling. Maybe correction to 1265ish. I thought the DCL is where everyone was going to back up the truck? It’s been 4 days since top. Typical hunt for DCL is 4-5 days, compounded with the BOW yestersay. Interesting day.

        1. Gary Post author

          The 50% retracement is at 1251. 62% is at $1240.

          Both of those are potential targets.

          The next full moon on Sept. 6 is also a potential target.

  29. Gary Post author

    The euro has finally dropped far enough to break its cycle uptrend line and confirm its moving down into a DCL.

    On the other hand the cycle is extremely right translated and on day 42. It could bottom any day now.

      1. Gary Post author

        Gold hasn’t broken its cycle uptrend line yet so there isn’t any confirmation that a DCL has begun (but the odds are high as its late in the cycle). Plus the euro is 42 days into its daily cycle and could bottom at any time causing the dollar to roll over again.

        Then throw in the tendency for gold to bottom on the full moon schedule and we might not get a bottom until Sept. 6.

        Basically the market is so erratic and volatile I don’t think I can make any money in it so I’m on the sidelines. I’ve just been spinning my wheels this whole year in this sector.

        So instead of continuing to do the same thing over and over I’ve decided to do somehthing else and just focus on the bubble phase in stocks.

        1. Nada

          Gary, what’s the new obsession with moon phases? In the past when asked, you would say you saw no connection with the market and gravitational forces. Now the verbiage is being slipped in.

          1. Gary Post author

            Well I took the time to check it historically and for what ever reason gold does seem to form cycle lows quite often on the full moon. Maybe it just occurred enough times naturally that the market noticed and now traders wait for it before buying. Beats me. I can’t see any logical reason other than that.

          2. TraderPete

            Gary, my research also confirms this. I think it has to do with some people turning into were-wolfs, and the rest of us get so scared that we dump everything including gold, and that climax turns out to be the bottom. ๐Ÿ‘ฝ ๐Ÿ˜Ž

            PS: Larry Williams also noticed this and published it in one of his books.

          3. Steffmeister

            Sorry it’s my fault and it’s not only gold, babies has a tendency to be born at a full moon aswell, Donald Trump is one example ๐Ÿ˜› nature works in mysterious ways, but the main moon event this month is the 21st!

        2. Cardio2

          Thanks. Does that mean you will not even bother buying gold if you think it has reached a DCL?

          1. Gary Post author

            I probably won’t bother trying to play the downside. I might buy a small position if the DCL lasts until the first week of Sept.

  30. Goild

    I just had a shower were I had clarity that JNUG at $17.18 is likely a bargain. So I canceled my sell order.
    Thank Nada for the comment, it helps.

  31. Gary Post author

    No sooner than we start hearing gold to the moon and the train leaving the station and gold starts down into what is probably going to be a daily cycle low.

  32. Goild

    This is one of those where gold can resume its fall previous to the reversal on the 8/7th.
    If so JNUG might be dragged to the low $10’s.
    Wise and good trading to all.

  33. isavage

    KaBoom there they dump Silver. Buying USLV pre market.
    Last day for trade of VIX options today. Will close out TVIX shorts of the last days after pop and drop short squeeze. AKA north Korea worries ๐Ÿ™‚

  34. zbigkid

    And multiple chances to LOSE BIG MONEY. Frankly its all highly slanted to losing money. (your hubris notwithstanding).

    We all need to remember that when the stock market is hugely overvalued, as it is today, a major bear market can begin for seemingly no external reason. And happen even faster than you can ever imagine.

    History has zero precedent to today’s and the past 20 years of fraudulent monetary policy.

    If you all, and in particular Gary, truly believe you can spot that externality and get out in time, then the market will certainly not have pity on you fools when you lose your shirts. When the markets were less over-valued than today, the Nazdaq lost more 20% in 17 sessions, with absolute zero warning signs. Nobody saw that coming, and anyone who says they did is a flat out liar. It went on to lose more than 80%, and fast forward to today, 16+ years later its barely made back its non-inflation adjusted high.

    Whats worse is that the market is HUGELY overvalued, not based on any organic growth, but on fraudulent QE, pulling forward from decades in the future usurping unrepayable amounts of debt, to call what today exists as highly fabricated ‘earnings.’ If the earnings were not fabricated with one time events on a quarterly basis, the valuations would be nose bleed, moonshot, even more laughable. For EVERY single firm.

    Something like this can happen way faster than ever, especially since the markets were way highly manipulated to produce ‘perceived’ growth with unprecedented levels of QE largesse, unimaginable as recently as the year 2005. We are still talking $2.5 trillion of QE annually, just to keep these nosebleed levels propped. After 8 years of way more than that annually.

    Its wholly laughable to suggest people make easy money on bubbles, because its based on the premise there is any legitimacy at all for QE and debasement of currency without massively negative impacts. If you think and believe the markets today are somehow ‘proof’ that QE somehow ‘works’ then I have a nice little bridge to sell you that can easily cross from NY to London.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well that’s not exactly true. Bear markets don’t just appear out of thin air. They require a catalyst. Every bear market/recession since the 70’s has been preceded by a spike in the price of oil. Every one of them.

      We clearly don’t have that yet, so I think it’s a little premature to be calling for a bear market to just magically appear out of nowhere.

      I think it’s more reasonable to assume that this time will not be different. That central bank monetary policy will create another series of bubbles just like it did the last two times and then we will suffer the consequences, also just like the last two times.

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