94 thoughts on “STOCK MARKET CYCLE LOW

    1. Don

      Gary, every time you stick your neck out and make a currency call, you get your run the risk of setting yourself up to be wrong and then you stick to a bad call for months and months. As you have said time and time again, currencies do not follow cycles nor are they affected by sentiment. Why risk your credibility on guessing?

      1. Gary Post author

        Well unlike virtually every other newsletter in the world I actually stick my neck out and make calls. Sometimes I’m wrong. It happens to everyone from time to time.

  1. Bluebellkid

    I don’t get how you came up with the Semi’s being “quite stretched” above the 200 day? While the last couple of weeks the semi’s have sold off they did so on well below average volume. About a year ago when you were advising everyone to go into the miners I pointed out how well the semi’s were doing and all you could add was that it would not end well.

    1. Gary Post author

      At the June peak they got stretched a little too far above the 200 DMA.

      I remember and within days of you telling me that they dropped 6%.

      The semis have become the leading sector. I thought it would be biotech (bio may at some point resume the leadership role) but for now I think the sector is nervous about what the idiots in Washington might do that could damage it. It’s why I’ve just opted for the safer play in QQQ rather than potentially bigger gains in XBI, simply because I don’t have to worry about Washington passing any stupid laws that might kill QQQ like they could for XBI.

      1. Bluebellkid

        At the June peak it had shot up above the upper band and so snapped back. As for now though I have the 50 day moving average at 75.08 and SOXL closed at 88.00 so not stretched at the moment. Another thing to note is the volume the last two down weeks was well below average so at this point the pullback is orderly. A bigger drop on heavy volume will change things.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m not disagreeing with you.

          I think the semi’s are just working off a little excessive bullishness in June. I think they at least get to 1200 before a bigger pullback in Oct.

          1. Bluebellkid

            If one goes back to July of last year and looks at a weekly chart you will see that all of the pullbacks to the 50 day or slightly below were buying opportunities. And I have not taken advantage of all of them because in real time you don’t know if it is just profit taking and it will rebound or not. Is this pullback another buying opportunity???

          2. Gary Post author

            I would say any pullback is a buying opportunity until the bubble is complete and pops.

            The only question is in trying to time the bottom of the pullback perfectly. In a bull market though you don’t have to time perfect entries to make money.

          3. Bluebellkid

            I would say the place to add would be the 50 day as it moves back up and hope the move is for real.

  2. Lenapowich

    Mr. Savage, some of my friends at work have tried to register for this blog but they say they are unable to do so because they are not getting a confirmation email back. I tried helping a girlfriend and did it the way I registered and it didn’t work so they are not doing something wrong. Are you no longer accepting new people?

    1. Pedestrian

      Oh no! Lena’s recruiting backup. It’s going to be hell around here when the snowflakes sign up in numbers. I hear those Chicago girls are pretty rough and tumble. But can she teach us anything about knitting doilies with happy faces?

      Stay tuned people. Economic wisdom is about to be turned on its head.

        1. Pedestrian

          This blog ain’t Kansas Lena Powpow. And Gary is not our school teacher. But good for you and your friends for joining. The site needs new blood to freshen it up since its mostly just ornery old men here arguing about when the bear market in gold will end.

          Looks like the breakout is not far off now so your timing is probably really good to get invested in this most undervalued sector with so much upside potential. In fact if we pay heed to some of the good technicans we could literally be within weeks of the second breakout higher since gold crashed back in 20111.

          The last time metals took off in December 2015 some well known miners and junior gold stocks rose anywhere from 6 to 10 times in value. Explorers went up even more. It was a breathtaking advance but incredibly much of the gains have since been given up in some popular stocks which have fallen back anywhere from 50 to 70 percent.

          But we may now be on the cusp of a second opportunity to make exceptional money.

          And just to put this in perspective, most of the astonishing price rise in the mining shares during early 2016 were made in a brief period of just 60 days. Like I said, your timing might be nearly perfect should we see a similar move this fall.

          So stick around Lena. We have been waiting a long time for the big breakout that is inevitable as rain. In the coming days and weeks we will start talking names of stocks that could see outsize performance. MUX is one of many on my radar and you might make a memo of it plus many others that are likely to be discussed.

          But try to stay unruffled and keep cool. This isn’t a kids camp and people who come here do tend to speak their minds even when it is sometimes unpleasant and difficult to hear. That’s just life sweetie.

  3. zkotpen

    Lenapowich,

    “zkotpen. I don’t appreciate some of thing things you have said. You are not a very nice person.”

    Funny that this is your reply to my viewing of the FXI chart. What does the FXI chart look like to you there, Ms. Powich?

    At any rate, funny thing is, markets are social, as they’re made up of people interacting as a group, but none of your social skills will work in trading, as the market utterly ignores them. Successful business people are among the worst traders, simply because the skill set that got them up the corporate ladder does not work in trading.

    On this blog, you have a bunch of people worrying about what each other says, and barely concerned with markets, simply because it’s much easier and more comfortable to read some news and opine about it, and in a space like this, to read this one and that one and keep track of what this one or that one says and comment on it.

    But I can assure you, as can anybody who has learned technical analysis of one sort or another, none of that will help you in your trading. The only thing that will help you with your trading is a combination of (1) probability assessment, risk management, and strategy; along with (2) the psychology — not social psychology, but cognitive — that enables you to deploy your strategy consistently over time.

    Good luck with it!

  4. Ed

    4. ????????????

    But why would you care gold price when gold price does not directly correlated to miners?
    Unless you are investing in GLD, short-term gyrations in gold price does not really affect that much in mining shares. Gold price trend, however, is what really affects mining share prices.
    $1,300 has been always strong resistance. So I expect a lot of tightening around $1,300 but I expect gold price will be well above $1,375 by EOM, and $1,400, $1,500 ….and so on until $1,900s by November 2018 for last pause before embarking into bubble phase to $3,000???

    In short term, however, I would closely follow news and Trump. Instead of looking at gold price, I think one should start looking at when and who VanEck is buying their re-balancing shares in next few months.Also, look for few mining companies that are buying back their shares.

    From here on gold price will be affected by by more of geo-politics than of TA.
    I am betting we are not going to see parabolic bubble phase of stock markets. Like I have been saying consistently at dismay of some people over here that we have reached the top, and that the stock market bubble is behind us.

    All that liquidity that raised all asset prices are finally start to receding. No new money flowing into US stock markets. Even if Trump is successful with debt ceiling and tax rate cuts, that capital gain tax cut will only make the situation worse in short term.

    I was very surprised that of weakness of dollar in overall, specially in USDJPY pair in face military confrontation with N. Korea. Dollar failed miserably in offering safe-haven asset status.
    All in all, I am not that envious of you, Goild, as before, making impressive daily lunch money.
    GL with your HFT. I am done with that sort of 3X, HFT stuff. I found my peace and hopefully wealth in simple long-term trading strategy in gold and silver streaming companies.

  5. Sassybabe

    I finally got this to work. The registration email was in the spam filter. Thank you Gary. Excuse the name, it was just something I thought up quick and now I am stuck with it,

  6. Steffmeister

    Good Sunday 🙂

    Remember this post? Talking about a Geopolitical Violence (GV) at or around the 12th of August, a Swedish-Danish connection and I also mentioned Southerners just look what happened yesterday, a weird connection

    Steffmeister
    August 11, 2017 at 12:00 am
    God Morgon igen 🙂

    I agree with Palobar, a bigger inflection for gold stox coming in September. However there is a risk/chance that Gary’s scenario will not play out as expected.

    “G-V rising. Making high 2 days from today … 12th August. Staying up after that.
    It remains high for weeks. More than a month. Now through and past end of September.
    August: Higher highs on that elevated plateau are 12th, around 20th and end of August into early Sept.”
    I interpret the situation as if gold will keep the gains and even rise further the coming month or 2, so yes I am bullish going forward!
    No I am not 100% Swedish I am Skåning, we got a very weird accent and our own flag just like Quebecians and other Southerners
    A cross between the Swedish and Danish flag, to piss of the Swedish King!
    *****************

    This an absolutely absurd story about a Danish inventor “Rocket-Madsen” who is suspected for murder of 30year old Swedish female journalist onboard a homebuilt submarine … just absurd!

    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/submarine-owner-detained-over-journalists-disappearance/ar-AApUl6K?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout

    and the southerners are also in violent mode:
    http://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/one-dead-as-car-strikes-crowds-amid-protests-of-white-nationalist-gathering-in-charlottesville-two-police-die-in-helicopter-crash/ar-AApUdhF?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=mailsignout

      1. Pedestrian

        I think Gary is correct in his assessment that THIS next pullback is going to be the one we should buy with both hands. The chart still warns gold could drop below 1200 dollars before the advance begins as I had been asserting last month but we now have reasons to believe it might be the last such decline.

        My opinion during July was doggedly bearish because that’s how the charts were set up but the recent breakout from the channel is likely the one important sign that we need to acknowledge since it warns the next bounce won’t be the usual failure at resistance we have seen so many times before.

        I have switched sides therefore and will be playing the decline (which is still impending in my opinion) with an emphasis on picking up individual miners selectively as their charts permit and being ready for the *real* breakout to get underway once the next cycle bottoms during the first part of September.

        We will know more by how deeply this pullback actually goes so playing it ear is essential and keeping an open mind is more important than usual. The gold decline back in December 2015 pushed miners to exhaustion as gold undershot to the downside and destroyed the confidence of the few bulls who were still alive until then. No idea if that will happen again but there is precedence to suggest a distressing fall precedes the onset of the next important rise.

        1. Bigdaddy

          WTF? I can’t figure out if your bearish ( maybe drop to 1200), or bullish , (buy with both hands) or just plain full of horseshit. Which is it ? Enough with talking out of both sides of the mouth.

          1. Pedestrian

            Pay attention Big Dodo. Gold looks ready to reverse course right here. Its getting fairly overbought along with the miner indexes which usually means a correction is in sight if not imminent. So there is a shorting opportunity. I could be wrong that gold falls as low as the 1195 to 1200 area so what happens during this decline is important to how we will see the chart in a months time.

            IF this is the last major reversal before gold makes a run for that resistance line and finally breaks out with vigor then it means the low we are about to see is one that should be bought aggressively.

            Chart prices go both up and down. This one has been doing a great job of rising and falling like clockwork if you examine a daily chart carefully (linked below). So my expectation here given the overbought nature of the metals and miners is that we will see a pullback FIRST before running back up to the bear channel that’s been in place since 2011.

            That means there are two trades being discussed here. First the fall and then the rise. If gold surprises me and goes up and over 1300 hundred dollars (and that will be a BIG surprise) it will only mean that the bear trade has been put off for a little longer.

            None of us ever know for certain what will happen but this is my thinking right now. That break above resistance we saw may just be the shot across the bow that alerts us something bigger is coming.

            There is another scenario I am entertaining though. I think for example that gold miners could disconnect from gold itself in much the same way most of the conventional market has already disconnected from their fundamentals.

            It means that gold could be somewhat flat and yet miners would rally anyway if for no other reason than the sector is still mired in such a low valuation range. It seems improbable to me that Facebook might double again in price during the bubble phase of the market but mining stock would still be lifeless or decline.

            At some point money will just start to shift to areas that have a better chance of appreciation and we have that in spades in much of the mining complex. So I am more bullish mining stock that metals themselves.

            Hope that helps.

          2. Pedestrian

            Daily Chart of Gold:

            Note the nice even rise and fall of price during the last eight months. Just like a clock. Up/down–Up/down–Up/down. And there are fairly straightforward technical’s to read compared to others we have seen.

            We won’t know how it all plays out until this next correction hits its bottom but right now there are a few strong areas of support we can key in on and one of them is around the 1200 level.
            http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=d1

          3. bill

            I’ll go with horseshit myself. Calling both sides of the market is a head inwin tails you lose call. Pure bull shit.

          4. Pedestrian

            Gee Bill, I’ve been waiting for Lena Powpow’s girlfriend to show up and instead here you are back again. How’s the booze problem buddy? You hang in there man. I know you can kick it with some support.

  7. butch

    Added more gold shares due to gold breaking through the upper trend line of the triangle(s). Sold my GDX at a 28% loss. Had cold lunch. Bought more gold shares. Short term target for gold 1385, medium term 1585.

    1. Pedestrian

      Look at the weekly chart on gold WYSIWYGN and maybe give me your opinion on a thought I just had. If this is a massive inverse head and shoulders pattern being form then is it possible the BIG breakout does not come until another 3 or 4 years have passed? (not saying that will happen of course but we need to at least consider the technical pattern).
      http://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1

      1. Pedestrian

        Read my other posts. Those are very adaptive and a near complete change from my usual ever present bearishness. Lets just say I am prepared to change if the chart has also changed and am keeping an open mind. I do not want to be left behind if there is a genuine breakout here this season.

        Uhh…sweetie.

  8. mustang sally

    Not much going on in the home, came here and it is very quite, wonder why, Always quiet before the storm, are we going down, Gary thinks so, I agree. Where is the line between bull and bear, Mable Marker has marked 1214 and 1240 as the battle ground, anyone with charting can see the significance of 1240. and 1214, if you can’t you should not be trading. No more chatter from me until this is resolved.

    Over and out

    Shortin Sally

  9. Goild

    Ed,

    Thanks for commenting. I also hardly see SM bubbling more.
    You have it right, every one needs to find his/her trading peace of mind.
    Add to that that truth wealth is health and the happiness one has at home.

  10. Gary Post author

    We are about to see a series of bubbles as a result of years of QE. The first bubble will be in bitcoin which is already well into its vertical phase.

    The next will be in the stock market.

    And I think the third will be in precious metals.

    All of this will be driven by the collapse of the dollar.

    I just don’t believe we can print trillions of dollars and not have something bad happen. That’s not the way the world works.

  11. Bob

    Pedestrian, you indicated above: “The chart still warns gold could drop below 1200 dollars before the advance begins.”
    If it did that then we would have completed a very bearish triple-top pattern which would suggest gold should then drop to the $1100 region. I just don’t see things going that far.

          1. Pedestrian

            I am looking for a good strong pullback Bob. It should take us down to the 1200 region but its possible it goes even lower and drives out the bulls before making a break away to the upside. So you are correct, I see a bearish pattern but with possibly a very bullish outcome later in the fall.

  12. Gary Post author

    Notice how price tends to reach each round number first before pulling back. We came up 10 points shy of 2500 on the 8th. We should get a quick recovery over the next 2-3 weeks that tags 2500 before then starting a left translated cycle with a big scary correction in October right before the debt ceiling comes due.

  13. Gary Post author

    Christian,
    BTW I did accept your challenge on Aug. 4.

    “I’m willing to bet this daily cycle will also top in a left translated pattern and the ICL will continue.”

    1. Christian

      Now you’re just playing with words old man 🙂 The Dollar has started a bear market so of course this was always going to be a left translated cycle — that we agree on. But you were convinced that the dollar would just continue to drop without any reprieve and I kept saying that the dollar would eventually find a bottom and bounce up to its 50DMA, at the very least.

      1. Christian

        In fact, now that I’ve had time to collect the evidence.. There was never any talk about a daily cycle that would top in a left translated pattern in your rhetoric. You were convinced that the dollar would continue to tumble, as highlighted below:

        *July 22*

        Gary — “.. If these fail then I’d say it’s Katie bar the door time. The dollar is going into the abyss.”

        Christian — “Not sure I agree with the whole ”Dollar going down indefinitely scenario”. We will most definitely get a counter trend rally of some sort and I think it’s gonna happen right around the time the Euro tags its 200WMA @1.18”

        *July 25*

        Gary — “.. And I’m not sure it is going down as the dollar may just continue to unravel.”

        Gary — “.. But I’m starting to have my doubts about a dollar rally.”

        Gary — “.. Notice in the charts that the 200 WMA didn’t stop price during the last two bear markets in the dollar either. I’m starting to think it’s the same this time.”

        *July 26*

        Gary — “.. I’m going to take a guess that the dollar again fails to rally today when the Fed stands pat on rates. And since it still hasn’t reached the 200 WMA it probably continues to tank”

        *And finally on July 26*

        Christian — “The dollar will bounce Gary. I’m willing to bet a burrito on it 🙂”

        Mr Wonderful — “Normally I would be willing to make that same bet. The intermediate cycle is 63 weeks long for goodness sake. But when I looked at what happened during the last two bear markets I had to reconsider.. So I’m not at all convinced the dollar will bounce until sentiment gets much more extreme.”

        1. Gary Post author

          The dollar has bounced for 3 days. You can’t even hardly call that a bounce much less a move up to the 50-day moving average.

          At the moment I’m winning the burrito bet.

  14. Bigdaddy

    Gold and silver are headed higher and it isn’t going none of that choppy horseshit either. All those people waiting for a correction are going to be boo-hooing when gold goes nuts and they are left behind, sucking on their thumbs Hopefully we will get a chance next week to load up. I’m on top of this folks, trust me.

  15. Bigdaddy

    I was studying all day Saturday and i can tell you absolutely that the the stock market is in trouble. No more rescues by the PPT. They are done with that horseshit. Obama’s gone now and their is no need to make the presidency of America’s first black man look good anymore. It’s sink or swim time folks and she going to sink. Trust me. Buy silver and sell the stock market. One day you guys will be saying how smart Bigdaddy is.

  16. Bigdaddy

    Ok, i am done for the day. Me and the dog are going to be spending the day by the pool, drinking beer. It’s supposed to be 30 degrees today. That’s 84 in American language. How come the US is the only country in the world not using the metric system? Maybe it has something to do with all the idiots that they can’t teach anything to. Did you see that Baltimore thing where the school was changing grades so that even the dumbest ass would pass with flying colors? Even my dog would get a diploma is the way i understand it. They need to put a uniform on those dumb asses and send them over to North Korea to thin out the retarded gene pool like just they did over in Vietnam. Worked good then. ( yeah, I was there, now retired Air Force Colonel and yes it’s true, McCain was a useless airman who caused a big fire on an aircraft carrier) . But i am rambling and it’s beer time, all day. See you guys and gals tomorrow.

  17. Bob

    lol, given that Trump has taken full credit/responsibility for the rise in the SM since his Presidency began, he would be hard-pressed to suggest that it’s Oboma’s fault when a correction occurs.

  18. Bob

    He is a master at sucking and blowing at the same time in spite of the physical impossibility of doing so; although it seems to be requirement of his profession in politics.

    1. jacob2

      Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is acknowledging that it’s getting harder for institutional investors to ignore the cryptocurrency market with total assets ballooning to $120 billion and bitcoin soaring more than 200 percent this year.
      “Whether or not you believe in the merit of investing in cryptocurrencies (you know who you are), real dollars are at work here and warrant watching,”

      1. Gary Post author

        Remember me saying that one of the characteristics of the vertical phase of a bubble is price rallies 100% or more in a year or less?

        When you see an asset start to do that then you have to recognize that you are in the final blow off phase and at some point you just have to say enough is enough and get out so you don’t get caught in the crash that always follows.

        Bitcoin won’t be any different than any other bubble the world has ever experienced. Nothing that goes parabolic ever survives. All parabolas come to an end and crash.

  19. jacob2

    Bitcoin doing to gold what EV’s have done to oil. Couldn’t have written a more positive world commentary for gold going parabolic but it hasn’t, strong seasonal’s to boot. Best guess, gold bulls a year early. Unless you we’re fortunate enough to buy Novo Resources a few weeks ago.

  20. Ed

    I believe the parabolic rise of cryptocurrencies signify rebellion against fiat currencies.
    Precious metals would have done the same if not for precious metals futures paper markets.
    Parabolic rise of cryptocurrencies is mainly due to the fact there is no future markets for cryptocurrencies. There is absolutely no tools available for fiat currency bank cartels to crush this crypto market like they did and they are doing with precious metals.

    Only thing that prevents me into cryptocurrencies is I have no idea how these currencies work.
    In realty, Bitcoins get mined through extensive use of computing power and electricity, but there is no physical value of these cyber currencies. Unlike gold, you cannot have Bitcoin tooth or Bitcoin powdered solar panels.

    These Bitcoins are good at avoiding taxes and money laundering.
    If you ever get stolen your Bitcoins, where do you go report such theft or get remedies. Fiat currencies are at least you can report such thefts and get remedies if such transactions done in credit cards.

    Just wondering… Too many questions about cryptocurrencies.

  21. brii33

    Spx high for year most likely in , bounce week of 8-23 thru aug 30 per gary Jackson hole ., agree. I have OPEX Friday thru Tuesday aug 22 as bloody . First two weeks of sept more big down action then some recovery . Ultimately bottoming in October . Then our year end rebound into xmas spx 2400 ish per Goldman Sachs . Their revised spx number , mid year , has a stellar track record in recent years .I don’t see any quick hard crashes too many dip buyers .

  22. Ed

    It is very unknown how BTC is affecting PM.
    They are truly in same side against fiat currencies for the fact that one side has a finite number of currency while fiat currency has infinite number of currency units available.
    But BTC also acts as a dividing force in anti-fiat currency crowd.
    Money is flowing into BTC instead of PM.
    May be that is why Central Banks are leaving BTC alone for now knowing they can crush it when time is right. I have hard time to believe the governments will leave currencies that do not taxes alone.

  23. Ed

    Money comes from all forms of shape.
    I am an old guy from ancient period of time.
    My grandfather used to be a big rice farmer. I remember seeing him settle his year-long farm helpers wages with sacks of unprocessed rice grains at the end of harvest.
    In such cases sack of rice was a money. Gold and Silver have been forms of money for thousands of years.
    Even a root of Tulip was a money one time in history. Fiat currencies today are money. And Bitcoins today are also money too.

    But what is the likelihood of any of these forms of money will have staying power as Gold and Silver.

  24. earthkitten

    Gold going down the toilet this week. Don’t listen
    to bluebell ice cream man. He’s poison I tell you.
    Remember all that Listeria in the ice cream.
    Can believe he’s talking about all that volume nonsense.
    Didn’t they use volume to analyze stock in 1973? I remember
    my Uncle Donald using that volume garbage in stocks & lost
    everything but a jar of mustard.

  25. dboz

    I think we see a good fake break out move in metals to get everyone on board this is it this time. Then a drastic drop so no one will be bullish and as Gary often says no one will be able to buy. Then we will get launch mode. Everyone will think the bear is on, everyone will be short, longs will be out and will have given up after another “scorch”. No one will chase as they figure it will just be another tease until it just keeps surging. Then you have shorts covering, longs jumping on board all of which will be the fuel for a massive breakout. Time will tell. I almost shorted miners on Friday but I don’t trust shorting them in this Geopolitical environment as anything could be a sudden spark and create a quick upsurge.

    1. Don

      Dboz: You said “Everyone will think the bear is on, everyone will be short, longs will be out and will have given up after another “scorch”
      Don’t you think that is exactly what has happened over the past few weeks? Very few were accumulating, as I was. during the last gold decline and still very few are buying as gold approaches $1300.

      Also note that Gary and his subs are waiting for a pullback and the most important indicator of all is the stance of Pedestrian who has said no less than twice that he expects gold to head down to the 1200 area before it goes up. You have been around long enough so you should know what that means.

      Back up the truck time!

      1. dboz

        Lol, the only issue for me is the lack of volume. If we are going to make a huge move we need to see increasing volume. As price rises volume decreases. Not what you would expect.

  26. Don

    Dboz: The recent tech sell offs have been with convincing volumes and that has ‘distribution’ written all over it. I wouldn’t be so sure that new highs are on the way anytime soon.

    1. dboz

      Anyone’s guess. Just not seeing a big drop here like Gary says until later on maybe later this year. That would also probably be a good time for gold to launch when market fear grows. This pullback is nothing.

  27. Don

    Look at the weekly charts of the 3X leveraged inverse ETFs, TECS and SOXS and note the dramatic increase in volumes over the past month or so. That is almost certainly the so called ‘smart money’ accumulating.

  28. dboz

    I used to be emotional over the metals. I WANTED it to happen. I learned patience and to just go with the flow. I get in and I get out. My buy and hold waiting for some big launch are over. I will buy on oversold conditions and evaluate from there. I am running with ETFs for now. On a big dive, I may go back to individual stocks with 2-3 of my favorites. But no longer doing those heavy. It’s too much and too hard to watch and manage.

  29. Gary Post author

    Looks like the PPT isn’t fooling around. They started from the second the futures opened. Like I said, they don’t want the market in correction mode during the Jackson Hole event.

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