Trade challenge

Folks, when you send me a trade I will always reply back as “confirmed” or “got it”.

Sometimes I don’t record the trades until evening when I get back from climbing, so don’t panic if I don’t reply immediately. If by 9 pm you haven’t received the confirmation reply then resend the original with the time stamp.

If you don’t get a confirmation then no trade has been recorded and it’s up to you to resend until it comes through and gets recorded.

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88 thoughts on “Trade challenge

  1. bginvestor

    Since this challenge is such a big deal on the blog , I suggest you consider posting up pic of your spreadsheet with the running numbers (minimum monthly basis)..

    It would only take a few minutes, and folks can actually see what the heck is going on..

    1. Gary Post author

      Everyone has a separate page for their trades. I would have to post 40 pages and some people have been trading like demons so they have more than one page of trades.

      I’l just keep updating the leaders monthly.

  2. TraderPete

    I’m waiting with bated breath for Palobar to give us our next projected cycle bottom for gold. I know what Palobar’s secret is. Palobar is an astronomer at Mt. Palomar Observatory, gazing at the stars and divining what they are saying about the markets and the universe. πŸ‘½

    PS: Palobar, do you still think we may see a low for gold below $1,045 by the end of the year?

  3. Don

    Desertsun: I sent three emails to the address you provided, using three different email handlers and none bounced. That means they were all accepted and the email address must still be active. That doesn’t mean Gary is accessing them but his account has not been terminated properly.

  4. Don

    Ped says ” I said several times I was waiting for a suitable buy signal.” You did? When was that? You just love making shit up and hope no one calls you out on your crap! At no time did you ever say that you had bought anything.

    Quit hiding behind the bullshit : ” I will be damned if I am going to start handing out real-time free trades each day” as an excuse for not posting your imaginary trades. I am the very last person that would ever follow your lead on anything so don’t worry about me “riding on your coat tails”. That will never happen.

  5. Pedestrian

    Exhibit 1:
    Blogger sends 3 emails to Gary’s old email address thus proving the blogger is a government worker since only a bureaucrat would do that task in triplicate.

    Exhibit 2:
    Blogger addresses his message to another poster wherein he indirectly calls Gary a liar since he is apparently unable to address Gary directly. This suggests he has a passive aggressive nature.

    Exhibit 3:
    Blogger keeps repeating the same accusation 3 times on two separate threads just to make sure everyone saw it so they will know how clever he was getting to the bottom of the Cox email deception. Nobody ever answers back so it is probable we have not heard the end of this little theater.

    And that folks is why government is so inefficient because there are endless resources for pointless tasks. The semi retired blogger in question probably needs to take up bird watching or some other equally worthless activity.

    1. desertsun999

      Ped, it was my screw up and I told Gary that I fully agree with him in not crediting the trades if they cannot be verified. It just sort of sucks that you totally fuck up your account because of an email error but like I said, the main thing is that I didn’t lose real money off the deal………..end of theater.

      1. Pedestrian

        Don’t be silly Desertsun999. Just strip that beach towel off the Cox account cover-up. We are dying to get to the bottom of the story. Meanwhile, the brief up above refers to that insufferable bureaucrat Donkey-Kon who makes Regina his retirement home. After decades in the public service that was the best he could come up with. We should all feel offended by that since it proves some branches of humanity have still not evolved enough to know you need warm weather when you get old.

    2. Lenapowich

      Sounds very much to me like Don was doing Desertsun999 a favor. Why are you trying so hard to make it sound like he did something nefarious? I really don’t get your miserable attitude.
      Mr. Pedestrian, you really are an unpleasant fellow with a chip on your shoulder and one of the few here I don’t care for. You sound like a guy I used to date who always felt the need to others down. It was a very short relationship. Grow up and be a man.

      1. Don

        Lena: Don’t allow Pedestrian to intimidate you. I have been dealing with that ass for quite some time and he loves to insult and demean others who don’t fight back. Typical bully. Good for you for standing up to him.

    3. Bigdaddy

      WTF are you are you talking about? Who is the blogger that is calling Gary a liar? I hate bloggers that speak in riddles. I am beginning to wonder if you and Zkotpen are in cahoots to trash this great blogsite. He talks in riddles too. Maybe you two are really the same guy?

  6. Lenapowich

    I have read all of today’s comments and I don’t understand why there is so much chatter over such a small drop in gold. What’s the big deal? It’s not like gold dropped 50 bucks! I am holding GDX and it’s still above my buy in price so I am not terribly concerned.
    I have to say, this site is the most entertaining of any that I have been following during the past year. Some of the comments make me laugh (Bigdaddy is adorable) and others make me think hard. There is a lot of good natured banter although a few characters are rather unpleasant and seem to be here only for the purpose of bragging. Not cool.
    The author of this site, Gary Savage, seems to be a sharp operator and a real gentleman and deserves credit for putting up with a lot of childishness coming from just few. Some are actually quite rude and he still allows them to speak their minds. Gary, keep up the good work and thanks for this site.

  7. desertsun999

    Gary, I think its much more plausible that the dollar 3yr cycle was a couple months late versus a year early. It looks like the metals are indeed responding to the dollar strength. If this is the 3yr cycle low then this could end up getting much uglier than what you are anticipating. The COT’s are what has me leaning towards a much bigger bounce. The large spec’s have taken a beating since the dollar starting going down from 103.80. Now they are positioned to not capitalize whatsoever on a dollar bounce. This could end up being a turtle pace bounce over the next couple of months that takes us back up to the 96 region.

  8. Saturm

    I agree with Gary partly, the ICL is behind us, gold is just waiting for a HCL.
    We usually don’t get extremely bearish sentiment in summer, it happens in the Winter instead.
    For the same reason I don’t expect a crazy rally like Gary hoping for, the sentiments are not with it.
    History repeats itself.

  9. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

    Palo or whatever his name called that turn date 3rd to 6th nicely. Started on the 2nd with $10 mystery gold drop in the after hours. Mostly recovered, then resumption on 3rd/4th. Definitely 1251 to hit now, probably 1240ish

  10. Steffmeister

    I posted it in the wrong thread … I had to take a big strong whiskey (the water of life) to settle down yesterday, I slept like a baby for 8h πŸ™‚

    Steffmeister
    August 5, 2017 at 3:45 am
    21posts, here is another Lunar event coming soon lets reuse the number 21, the 21st of August a total Solar eclipse in the US

    http://eclipsewise.com/solar/SEnews/TSE2017/TSE2017.html

    Steffmeister
    August 5, 2017 at 3:54 am
    Oh Gary is buying into to this astrology stuff, awesome πŸ™‚ the solarsystem is a complex clockwork that is affecting us all, it’s not just the Sun and Moon. The Venus cycle of 225days kicked in the 27th of July.

    Saturn is also swirling around in the background. The funny hat that you Americans wear during the examination day, is a copy of Saturn, a black quadrant. Same thing in Saudi Arabia, the muslims circling the black quadrant stone, it’s Saturn.

    1. Don

      Steff, I agree with the concept that the celestial bodies may influence human behavior, perhaps right from the very moment of conception. Astrology is an interesting study.

      1. Steffmeister

        Tx, no I’ve only scratched the surface so far, it takes years to become an esoteric trader. Lets see what happens on Monday πŸ™‚ I went to bed and the moon was shining outside, it almost looked like a full moon, so I had to look it up. Time is flying so we are at a new Full Moon on Monday. I don’t know if it will trigger another inflection point?

        I am still in chock from the drop in First Majestic, I am trying to avoid x3 ETF’s and penny stox, bought some “quality” miners … but the writing was on the wall with a 42days illegal block of production in May.

        Hopefully better times to come, soon …

  11. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “Based on the full moon theory gold should complete its half cycle low either Monday or Tuesday.”

    And not just a full moon but a partial lunar eclipse. Visible in the eastern hemisphere (& Hawaii) — but who cares if you can see it? The question is: Can you feel it?

    1. Bigdaddy

      Feel what? How in the F….do you feel the moon ? Why would you want to feel it when you just can look at it? Man, you say some crazy assed things.

  12. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    Thanks for all the humor. Love your clobbering of the two copycats:

    The Intellectual Adder and the Emotional Adder.

    What a couple o’ vipers!

  13. mustang sally

    Morning All

    Thought I would add some real market stuff for those interested.

    Is apple about to fall, Mable marker has identified that 152 may be a good start for shorting, if it goes below and stays, the following markers come up 106, 120 83

    Sitting in the weeds

    MS

  14. mustang sally

    Updates on tesla, dust , usd; Tesla came nearly back up to the short marker at 260, clearly a line in the sand, above the market marches on and as Gary its a bubble, or drops , easy decision

    Dust , 29,50 just had to tuck it below on the close
    USD. banged right up to the 93.60 that Mable marked

    Recession or depression is clearly marked

    Shorting Sally until the lines are broke

    1. Gary Post author

      COT and sentiment levels are still too mild for an intermediate top. Plus the daily cycle (especially in the Dow) is far too right translated. The next intermediate degree decline has probably been pushed out to October.

      1. mustang sally

        Gary , you get yourself painted in the corner, my decsion is based on markers which tell which way to go, right now I am short but would switch on a dime if any of the marker lines got broken, that is how you don;t get killed in the market. I am with you if they do., let the markers do the talking. I have markers for indu 2100, spx,2300.. If any of the majors go below I would short at the marker,

        Shortin Sally

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t trade based on pure technicals. I take into account sentiment levels, COT levels, cycle counts and technicals are probably the last thing I look at as those can be painted to say just about anything the banks or Fed want them to say.

          We’ve seen multiple times how they create false breakouts or false breakdowns in the metals market to manufacture entries and exits.

          1. mustang sally

            Could not agree with you more on chart manipulations, don;t rely on short term but long terms which take into account these fakes, that’s why a computer is needed to chart and find relevent lines.

            Next few days may set the trigger.

            MS

      2. Bigdaddy

        October?? Well, that’s a slap in the face. I was thinking this month. Don’t you think some sectors might start declining ahead, like the techs for example?

        1. Gary Post author

          Intermediate degree corrections come as left translated daily cycles. The Dow is now in a strongly right translated cycle. That rules out this month as an intermediate decline. The best we can get is a 4-8 day drop into a minor daily cycle low and I doubt that will come ahead of Jackson Hole. They will probably keep the market propped up until then and again into the Sept. FOMC meeting. So the earliest window for a multi week correction between FOMC meetings is now in October.

  15. Christian

    PEDESTRIAN — You were accusing me of being a jerk to you the other day and I told you that sometimes you bring it upon yourself. This is another prime example..

    You’ve been back on the blog what? A few days..? And already you’re getting into all kinds of squabbles.

    This blog does so much better when people are fun and cordial.. Yeah a little bit of banter between you and Don and others (myself included) is absolutely fun but people like you always gotta take it 1 step too far and it never ends! It becomes childish and eventually takes away from the blog.

    Any chance we could tone it down a bit and focus more on bringing quality material to the blog?

    *Yes, Don will have a quip about you bringing quality material to this blog but nevertheless.. you get my point*

    1. Don

      Sorry, Christian, but I believe Ped to be a fraud. He’s no trader. He hates it when someone calls him out on statements he makes that are fabrications about what he has traded, etc. Notice how he won’t address direct challenges to the things he says but rather resorts to childish attacks that are completely unrelated to the issue. Very immature.

      His complete lack of humility when he is wrong is typical of his kind. I will continue to challenge him with the hope that no one gets sucked into believing his pretense of being a successful trader.

      1. Christian

        Feel free to challenge all you want Don.. No one said you couldn’t. It just sucks when it continually deteriorates and turns into childish antics that never seem to end.

  16. Bigdaddy

    Ok, guys (and gals), i have been doing some serious studying this morning and i can tell you that without a doubt, the current weakness in silver and gold is temporary and a great buying opportunity. Silver is probably your best bet. DON”T piss around with JNUG, NUGT horseshit. I read that they just steal your money. So, unless you know how to trade like that horse -shoes-up-his-ass, Goild, stay away from them.
    Also, soon, we need to be thinking about the oils but ONLY after we have had a SM correction. That’s coming soon. My sources have said all along that oil is going up this fall. Let’s hope we see another pull back in crude so we can snap up cheaper oil stocks. Th-th-th-th that’s all folks, stay tuned.

    1. Don

      BD: While I think you may be right on silver, I wouldn’t be too hasty with the oils. I don’t see crude falling off a cliff but I think the upside potential is limited. We certainly could see a temporary spike if Trump follows through on his stated intent to do something about North Korea, but it would probably be a brief surge. I do hold some oil stocks but will sell with a modest profit when the time comes.

  17. jacob2

    Prefer Oil and cooper over gold. There consumables, cheap compared with everything else. The world economy is just too strong right now for gold. Waiting…1025 – 1050 the final flush everyone worried about sub 1000 … once again. We shall see.

    1. Gary Post author

      One could have used that same philosophy in 98 on tech companies that had no earnings and no realistic chance of earnings in the future. You would have gotten absolutely destroyed.

      Bubbles aren’t about fundamentals. They are about:
      1. Cheap money
      Check. Interest rates have been at virtually 0 for 8 years.

      2. Too much liquidity looking for something to land on.
      Check. QE to the tune of trillions of dollars.

      3. Emotions. When price keeps rising for many years people convince themselves that there is a fundamental reason for the rapid price increase. In reality it’s just herd behavior. Traders see other traders making money buying. They want to make money as well so they buy. Buying begets buying.

      It’s as simple as that. The three things required to create a bubble. All three are present in today’s market.

    2. Don

      BD: Advertising is the life blood for the likes of Facebook and Alphabet (Google) so if there was a hint that advertisers are cutting back…. look out below!

  18. Bigdaddy

    This board is too dead on the weekends. Zero interaction. It’s pouring rain outside so i can’t even take the dog out. Maybe i can talk wifey into something more interesting. Maybe i will be on later.

  19. mustang sally

    Something to ponder on a Saturday,

    Mable Marker does not care about noise , it draws pictures based on touch points of long tern charts, thousands of lines and reduces it down to probable lines up or down, sit down for this if you are a bull,

    does anyone think the indu could go back to 400 , it has a pattern which takes it down in 2 years. Given the trouble we are in.

    Shortin Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      LOL apparently you didn’t notice what QE1 did to the last bear market. Like central banks would just sit and watch the market drop to 400. The only thing that would ever take the Dow down to 400 is a nuclear war and pretty much the end of civilization as we know it. It’s kind of tough to bet on the end of the world. It can only happen once.

      BTW what trouble are you talking about?

      Unemployment is under 5%.

      Commodity inflation is low.

      The Ted spread is calm.

      The high yield bond market is calm.

      The world is relatively peaceful right now. No major wars, and none looming unless you believe we are going to start firing missiles into NK.

      1. mustang sally

        Gary. I don;t ask question, it just maps out high probability patterns up or down, the midpoint for the pattern is 3000 which is the top of 88, graphically it makes sense, if the dow drops below the marker who knows, if it drops below I will be shorting

        MS

      2. Don

        Gary, yes, the media has been dutifully reporting that everything is wonderful. It is at times like this when a black swan comes out of no where and broadsides the economy and the stock market. I was reading today the number of VXX shorts is at an all time high, meaning the expectation is for the current low volatility environment to continue. That will not be the case. Never is.

        I think the wild card here is the political situation in the US. Trump is anything but predictable. Furthermore, do you really think the central banks are going to support the markets forever? During one of the upcoming pull backs, they may not step in and rescue the markets as they supposedly have been doing. Some FED members have been quite vocal about stock market valuation being too high. Maybe we should be listening.

  20. mustang sally

    Gary, If this pattern holds the first leg down takes it down to 9500, which is the same as the 2008 crash, interesting, We watch to see if it breaks the first marker. if it does bubble it is.
    Shortn Sally

  21. CooLoser

    Hi Sally,
    I can’t help but wonder if this Stock Market Crash prediction you’re making will be anything like the $400 DUST prediction you boldly made back on July 4th for August 1st? We all saw how well that one worked out.

  22. mustang sally

    Hey Loser, Please read carefully and what the parameters are, they must be met before it could be a possiblity usd over 96.30 and dust must be over 12,50, and the dow must be under the market,

    Are you in the on line bingo game”

    Shorten Sally

    1. Don

      MS: I am not following. Are you saying a possible market decline has something to do with the USD being over 96.30 and DUST being over 12.50?
      I try to keep up with your marker system but sometimes you are not very clear as to what your point is.

  23. mchawe

    Gary, I used to do a lot of rock (and ice) climbing once. Are you the same Gary Savage that we can see doing impossible things on rock faces? I used to do that stuff but at 73 years I don’t have the strength any more. But what you can do is far better than what I could ever do ! Keep at it…….it keeps you young and the brain sharp.

  24. Don

    Has anyone been looking at FCG ? It’s an ETF made up of companies that produce primarily natural gas and it has been unloved for several years. This coming week I am going to take out a stake as a long term investment and add to it over time. It’s currently trading at 20.18 and even pays a nice dividend.
    I have no intention of day trading this ETF.

    1. Christian

      Natural Gas could continue to trade sideways for many years to come unless there’s a fundamental change hiding around the corner somewhere. So the question is: Is it really worth it?

  25. Pedestrian

    What a weekend. Went to the rodeo and of course I brought my own horse. You guys who are always kidding abut bust’in balls have no idea what the term means until you try riding a real bronc. The word agony does come to mind though.

    But nobody cries at the Rodeo and nobody should cry on this site either. You have got to grow up people. And that includes the likes of Lena Powpow who wants to impose her Carleton Cards view on the world and be a judge of the world from the comfort of her keyboard.

    The rest of you fat, bald, aging bureaucrats need to go out and get some fresh air for a change. Or at least go to church where you can thank Jesus for the blessings in your life. Just like I am doing today. Or maybe go climb a cliff like Gary does. Now he’s a real man quite unlike the crybabies who populate this site!

    So Mustang Sally, since you are the only one who wrote a post worth responding too this weekend I will just say I agree with you on your suggestion the DOW could take a massive swan dive (eventually). Martin Armstrong himself has commented on the subject and remarked that the price of gold should rise to as high as 5000 in the next few years when the equity markets finally sell off.

    But what is he really saying?

    In short, Martin has indirectly commented on where the DOW/gold ratio is going and if that is the case we have a traumatic period in history coming up once this stock market bubble finally bursts. Because what Martin is suggesting is that the DOW will fall to an astonishing low of 5000 in the process and that is what would be expected for a DOW/gold ratio to hit 1:1 again.

    Lets put this in perspective. Martin has also said this run up in the DOW could go as high as 35,000 before its over so a fall back to 5000 means there will be an 85% decline putting the coming index collapse on par with what has happened during the Great Depression market crash.

    **Note to Gary: There was no nuclear war in 1929 to cause the DOW to sell off 95%. What we did experience though was the termination of a multi-decade credit cycle and when it finally collapsed it seemed as if the world itself had come to an end. That was when the great reconciliation happened between debtors and creditors and the largest transfer of wealth in history up until that time came to be.

    Anyway Sal, you can look at the chart of the DOW / Gold ratio for yourself and try to determine where we are at on the cycle. Some people have remarked we are in the second wave down of Elliot’s 3 wave decline (which means the crash could happen anytime now) while others contend the ratio will keep rising with stocks as gold keeps falling and eventually double-top before dropping like a rock.

    I don’t know which it will do. What we can be sure of though is that we will eventually see a ratio of 1 or 2 as that is that historical pattern. How fast we get there is anybodies guess. But here is a hint: Stocks are already over-valued by every measure known to man so the way this ratio will resolve is NOT with a massive rise in gold but rather a sharp decline in equity prices.

    In other words, I am in agreement with your idea a huge crash is inevitable and personally believe it will take the DOW all the way back to index levels we saw in the 1980’s or 1990’s. Something in the 3000 to 5000 range seems about right.

    Check this chart for yourself. It is a warning we should not ignore. DOW / GOLD ratio over 100 years..
    http://www.macrotrends.net/1378/dow-to-gold-ratio-100-year-historical-chart

    1. mustang sally

      Morning Ped: I think Armstrong has the dow rally with gold falling, Mable Marker has them both falling at the same time the usd is going crazy,, Another final bottom could be around 1300, this is another high frequency marker. We wait for the marker break. until then speculation

      MS

    2. Gary Post author

      Do you know why the Dow dropped 90% in the 30’s? It wasn’t just because we came to the end of a credit cycle. It was because the money supply was fixed to the price of gold.

      Once the gold fix was broken what happened? That’s right deflation ended almost instantly.

      What happened in 2009 once Bernanke ramped up the money supply?

      That’s right deflation stopped almost instantly.

      We can’t have a repeat of the 30’s unless we fix the money supply.

      We also came to the end of a credit cycle in the 70’s but Nixon took us off the gold standard. So did we get deflation or inflation in the 70’s?

      But I will agree that the Dow can fall a long way, but it first has to generate a massive parabolic bubble. The pendulum has to swing a great distance to the upside for us to get a huge crash to the downside.

      1. mustang sally

        Don’t think we need any bubble to crash, all speculation, I will the let the markers tell me, here is another warning marker on the tsx 13000, anything below is off to church time and pray.

        MS

  26. mustang sally

    Morning: Thought i would post this before church as it is most appropriate and Gary will not like it. After further evaluation,, 22092 appears to be a top, for the marker pattern to playout this has been id as top on the dow. If it is then you will see 13475 get broken, next marker 9330. After that if it can;t get above 13475 all hell will break loose.

    Shortin Sally.

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