188 thoughts on “TWO STEPS FORWARD, TWO STEPS BACK”

  1. zkotpen

    Nada,

    Thank you! — I made clear at the time, it was my first ever FOREX trade.

    No need to ever meet. Waste of time reading your post (only because it appeared as a chihuahua nipping at the heels of mine — otherwise, it’s page down all the time).

    Just like you to misconstrue what I wrote.

    You are bummed out that you are 100% copy and paste. All script, all cliché, all somebody else’s thoughts — I do sincerely thank you — certain posts on here remind me to hold my cards closer to my chest, and to ensure they are not reflected in my shades, for folks like you to see.

    1. Nada

      lol, you are a funny guy zkotpen. Remind me how many charts or real time trades you have posted?

  2. jacob2

    Was set to buy miners in july but lack of insider buying in the sector kept me on the sidelines. Now we have failed seasonal’s with many charts particularly silver destined for double bottoms ( AG, EXK). Perhaps a year away from something trully significant. Thanks for the video.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Homer, don’t forget that i sold most of my silver holdings near the top, keeping only 500 SLV (paid 15.44 way back and recorded here). I tried to buy USLV yesterday and they missed filling my order by 3 cents. That was pure luck. I also have 4000 HGU with an average price of 13.77 (also recorded here) and it’s now 13.57 so not too bad. Now, should we be loading up on silver today? Stay tuned while i figure this mess out,

    2. Nada

      Big Daddy has not had time to post yet, but the dog and him are buying silver hand over fist. The pup will hit the sell button when retail FOMO kicks in.

  4. zkotpen

    Yearly and intermediate gold & GDX volatility are simply not going to get too far out of line for the time being.

    As I’ve maintained since last September, the yearly cycle rally out of the 2016 YCL was likely to be a double zig zag. It’s looking more and more like that every day.

  5. zkotpen

    Alex,

    “I am long USDMXN”

    Interesting… what is your time frame? With monster leverage?

    Looks like a counter trend rally as far as I can tell — but still profitable… as I’m sure you know.

  7. Jimsee

    4 watever reason the fundamentals indicator I follow is stuck in an uptrend for gold…retesting 8/8 lows but well above 50dma. a breakout is more likely than not but trading the dips and surges is always advised. with this uptrend I must buy hi vol futures dip bars.

  8. zkotpen

    Nada

    “Remind me how many charts or real time trades you have posted?”

    I was actually thinking of you as I posted my comment just below about the volatility & the double zig zag I’ve kinda been thinkin’ about for almost a year, that seems to be playing out in gold & GDX.

    Sure, I’ll give you a piece of filet mignon — but not the whole steak!

    1. zkotpen

      Last charts I posted were two triangles, one in gold and one in GDX, during the recent daily cycle rally. Difficult to get a read on them, ‘specially the one in GDX. Admittedly, they were not in real time (who noticed them in real time?), still, they were right after the fact. If you’re familiar with triangles, that gives you a good idea of what’s coming next, hence their predictive value.

    2. Nada

      OK glad you shared. I posted my target earlier this morning with specifics. However, its going to be a bit tough to achieve something actionable with your outlook;

      “the yearly cycle rally out of the 2016 YCL was likely to be a double zig zag. It’s looking more and more like that every day.”

      With that statement, up or down you are covered. I see what you did here :O

  9. Steffmeister

    Patience here folks, steady hand on the tiller ! Waiting for the 21st THE MAIN MOON EVENT this month!

    2. Americano

      Surf,
      Here is the quick way to access GBTC premium to physical Bitcoin:
      https://tradeblock.com/markets/
      $666 GBTC = $7200 Bitcoin currently.
      Unless you have to hold due to 401k highly suggest folks just buy Bitcoin proper as post 10k you’ll probably want to move to some of the exchanges coming next year & sell call options on part of your stash.

  12. Spanky

    The monthly chart of the miners would have suggested months ago that the miners were due to be range bound due to the extremely wide bollinger bands–i.e., they needed time to narrow in before the next leg, up or down, could begin.

    IMO, we are coming to the end of that narrowing process by this month or next. The apex of the triangle consolidation on the GLD:GDX chart would also confirm that timing.

    Not making any prediction about direction, but the trendless nature of the miners especially over the last 8 months is about to change bigtime.

  13. Don

    I am buying silver this morning as a buy and hold investment. In my opinion , the sell off is a shake out and over done.

    1. Gary Post author

      You might want to wait at least until gold breaks the daily cycle trend line and confirms the DCL.

      I would also wait until short term sentiment reaches bearish levels.

      Sentiment was excessively bullish the other day when you were looking for a trip to the moon. It’s almost always better to buy when sentiment is bearish.

      1. Don

        No need to be insulting Gary. I wasn’t looking for “a trip to the moon”. However, I did say that because Pedestrian was calling for 1200 gold, it was time to back up the truck. Perhaps that was a little over exuberant but that man is wrong enough to be have become a consistent contrary indicator when it comes to gold related issues.

        1. Pedestrian

          So far I am right Don. We are experiencing the cyclical downturn that I forecast two weeks back. If I made any error it was only being early and not anticipating a nuclear attack threat by Korea which cause gold to spike above my initial resistance target.

          But you didn’t see that coming either.

          Gary is right about you calling for backing up the truck. Moonshots in other words. I think he has perfectly encapsulated what you were saying and caught you being on the wrong side of the trade again.

          He is a much more experienced trader than you. Maybe listen to him sometime.

          1. Don

            Ped, you say gold is going to go up , then you say it’s going to go down, flip flop flip flop. Then no matter whet happens you can trot out some nonsense about how you foresaw and foresaw that. You talk out of both sides of your mouth all the time in a pathetic effort to make yourself look knowledgeable. And, you are no day trader either so drop that pretense.

          2. Pedestrian

            You need to read my posts before commenting on them. Don’t forget that you are not the only person here reading this blog and I have been explicit in my expectations for precious metals and miners. I have called for a decline first to a level below 1200 dollars to be followed by a reversal higher.

            I am frankly pretty shocked you cannot understand something so simple. That is two separate trades, not a flip-flop calling both sides. But perhaps I have given you too much credit.

            As the sites WORST trader, you have again taken losses today after your poor timing entering long metals and miners last week and then made one of the most fundamental mistakes in trading which is to double down on the bet after realizing you were too early.

            You need to get off my case. I have no time for people like you.

  15. Herman

    Relatively large money outflow in AG, it will be interesting to see if the recent bottom at 5.92 holds.

    1. Pedestrian

      To my way of charting, AG will fall below 4 dollars before it finds a final bottom. It will be an excellent buy down at that level.

  16. Herman

    Another question for Gary, should the retracement during a 1st DCL after an ICL not be relatively mild? E.g. rather 38% retracement instead of 50 or 62%?

    1. Gary Post author

      There is no set limit. They can be mild or extreme. It often depends on how deep price has to retrace to move sentiment back to bearish.

    1. Gary Post author

      Months ago I told people to keep energy at 20% or lower. Last week I suggested going even lower to 10 or 5% if they insist on playing energy.

      I think most people have followed my suggestion and are just focusing on the stock market.

      1. HomerJ

        That doesn’t answer my question regarding your paper holding, I think you went in around $29.35. Is a $6.50 (23%) decline not enough?
        I don’t care what you said to do or not, my question is what are you waiting for to revise your stance on this transaction.

        1. Gary Post author

          I don’t sell at cycle bottoms when everyone is bearish and freaking out. I sell at tops when everyone is bullish.

          Haven’t I made this clear before?

          If I had listened to the nitwits on the blog I would have stopped out right at the bottom of the 3 year cycle. Instead I held on and got out months later with only a small loss instead of a giant one.

          1. HomerJ

            You’ve been singing the same merry tune in regards to Energy Gary and your record is skipping on the same verse. ERX/XLE has been sliding and unable to catch upside since, oh shit, like December 2016 and I imagine that some day the baby jebus will make it rise from its grave, but mu question remains, why the fuck do you insist on holding the 3x ETF instead of cutting (like two months ago) and getting in when a REAL base has formed? Your cycle has sprung a flat, you’re not patching it.
            You’re also dancing around my question and frankly, I’d rather dance with my wife.

          2. Pedestrian

            Are you me? That was freaky Homer. I just had an out of body experience reading your post as if I had written it myself!! LOL!

        2. JJHarmen

          If it is just a paper trade, what does it matter how long one holds ERX? The draw down is irrelevant when you don’t need the funds put to work elsewhere. You just create more paper money just like a central bank, as needed. Am I missing something?

          1. HomerJ

            It matters how long the folks who bought on the “advice” hold. As a trading, sorry, I mean “trading” service, responsibility rests on the provider.

  18. JJHarmen

    GDX is not making new lows but ERX and XLE printed fresh lows this morning. The energy sector can’t go down forever but it isn’t looking good right now.

  19. Don

    Useless information: Check the chart of the Russel 2000 (RUT) and you will see that it is currently at the same point it was back on December 9, 2016. That’s right, although the high flying large cap tech stocks have driven the Nasdaq up sharply, the small cap market has gone no where in eight months!

    1. Gary Post author

      Good reason to stick with tech 🙂

      Buy the dips. The only question is in trying to pick the bottom of the dip.

    2. Spanky

      It’s the new fascist business model. Stick with the largest cap tech stocks. Preferably AMZN and GOOG. You can’t lose. Remember only the largest companies will be able to access low rates in the bond market. They own Congress and WS at this point. The rich will get richer and small start-ups and individual inventors are completely crowded out and/or crushed, mostly by regulations creating barriers to entry or that greatly favor established companies. Welcome to the new America.

  20. Spanky

    GCC which corresponds to the old $CCI (unweighted commodity index) looks like it is going to break below the July low. This is pretty ugly.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71422001049&a=539651336&listNum=1

    Next target will be the 2016 low. This could end up being a nailbiter. If Gary’s call of a 7 year cycle low is correct, we obviously should not be breaking below that low.

    Absolutely pathetic performance for commodities. These things are going to be basing out for years. And relative to U.S. stocks, the opportunity cost in being long commodities has been absolutely devastating.

    1. Gary Post author

      Commodities have a 3 YCL, not a 7 YCL. That’s the stock market.

      I’ve tried hundreds of times to convince people to focus on stocks. I’m doing my part. 🙂

    1. Don

      That’s a good point spanky. The cost of commodities, and energy in particular, has kept the economy afloat for some time.

    2. Pedestrian

      Commercial traders who use the Canadian dollar as a hedge are nearly record short CAD right now and its been falling continuously since the end July. Are you really sure you want to bet against those guys? The WTI chart is on the cyclical downside of its chart pattern. Hows 40 bucks sound to you? To me you are just catching a falling knife here and it makes no sense going long crude right here. This has got disaster written all over it unless you are just playing very short term swing trades.

      1. Pedestrian

        Not trying to bug you Troy but please look at the following chart closely. Can you not see the symmetry of WTI on its daily level? Just a casual observation will suggest it wants complete its decline. On a technical level, the MACD is turning down on the daily chart and volume is declining. You may get a short term bounce because its sitting above its 60DMA now but to me that is not a position to hold too long.

        WTI at the daily chart level…..There is near perfect symmetry here.
        http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=CL

      2. Don

        Thanks Ped, and that is our cue to start thinking about going long crude oil. I said I would be looking at crude (not stocks) when it got down to the 46-47 dollar area. Now I am confident on that.

  24. Nada

    “Nada
    August 15, 2017 at 5:35 am
    Getting close to 1265. Final long at that level, 1248 stop. Target 1315.”

    So far, it appears .618 has been good enough for retracement. I didn’t get my last long entry at 1265 so far, but so far things are starting to shape up.

    https://i.imgur.com/1p4LXl1.png

  25. Bigdaddy

    SOXS, SPXU, and SQQQ are not treating me well. neither is FB. I have a buy order in for USLV 1000 shares at 11.52. Maybe i will get a fill later. Taking out the dog now. Later people.

  26. Kenny

    Gary is right about the metals sector being frustrating to trade but isn’t it that how it always is before a big move? The bulls have to give up before hand.

  28. Don

    The market internals are not healthy. The number of new lows is exceeding the new highs (209 vs 99), the number of issues trading below their 200 DMA has been shrinking for the past 10 days and the Russell 2000 continues to badly under perform.

    I don’t think the market is going to continue the rally for much longer but it has proven me wrong before. The big cap companies have been pulling the the S&P and the Nasdaq for years and without the help of the small caps so who knows how much longer that can continue.

    1. Pedestrian

      Not if the ratio breaks lower Spanky. And that is exactly what it looks like will happen. Its going to be a very bad day in Gold-ville when the rubber meets the road on that triangle. I am still projecting gold to fall just below 1200 dollars (around 1192) and that cannot be bullish for the ratio if miners follow it down.

      1. Spanky

        Well duh. That’s why I qualified the statement with the ALL CAPS phrase.

        It’s also not a bad spot to go short IF YOU ARE A BEAR.

        The reason being is we are right at the apex and if you are right, you will have an extremely secure stop (again, long or short).

        1. Pedestrian

          Sorry Spanky, I didn’t get the all-caps thing. Let me rewrite you sentence.

          IF YOU ARE A BULL, arguably today is a terrible day to buy miners if that pattern breaks down. It doesn’t get more clear cut than this. We are at the end of the triangle and metals look like they will go lower. Buy now and you will get your ass handed to you on a big, fat silver platter.

          In other words Spanky, you better be damned sure of yourself before getting long because the move will likely be sharp. Of course, it could break upwards. Who knows eh? You might want to wait to be sure though before entering the trade otherwise you are just gambling.

          1. Spanky

            My thing is, if the ratio breaks up (bad for miners) you will stop out quickly and the trend is likely to be durable, so the odds of a whipsaw are a little less. In other words, your stop is basically very close, which lowers your risk.

            You are right though that a meaningful break of this triangle could be violent and so you might wake up to a large gap against your position. So be it. There is no such thing as zero risk in this world.

            If you were to try to buy the trend (up or down) as soon it is clear, it is likely you will get caught in a backtest of the breakout. Nothing is going to be easy.

          2. Spanky

            I think the takeaway at least for me here is, take a position long or short, but don’t bet the farm yet. Do that on the next dip/pop. 🙂

          3. Pedestrian

            True enough. Nothing is easy. We can only do our best. I can’t claim to know anything for certain right now. Silver does look like it will bounce back up by tomorrow for example. Gold too for that matter. Yen/$ is sitting right on a nice support line and ready to bounce back up which should be positive for gold later tonight. So I am taking that into account. And then there is always the unpredictable coming out of Korea. Who the f*ck knows what that lunatic will say next to torpedo the charts.

  31. Spanky

    I think this post of Gary’s is going to end up being a huge contrarian indicator and a sign that a major trend–up or down–is imminent–as in days away. And whatever the direction, it’s going to end up being nearly impossible to trade, IMO.

  32. Don

    I’m still watching FCG and looking for higher volume indicating accumulation. As part of the energy sector, it has been beaten down along with the rest.

    1. Pedestrian

      He is really a terrible trader Sassy. I have tried in the past to help him but the guy has a massive pride barrier that won’t allow sunlight to penetrate his dense skull and instead he has been riding my ass ever since with constant daily jabs.

      Nothing I can do about it. Its his money to lose so I don’t really care.

      1. Christian

        No offence — but your EGO isn’t all that much better sugar plum! You get into these endless squabbles with peoples, which in all honesty takes away from this blog. A little bit of banter is fine but you always gotta take 3 steps too far and it just becomes childish.

        1. Pedestrian

          Christian you are no better by harassing Gary almost every single day so stop throwing rocks in a glass house. Nobody who comes here is innocent so everyone can stop the finger pointing already.

    2. Bigdaddy

      Sassy, If you have to choose who’s probably right, i think Don would be the better choice. That’s my humble opinion anyway.

  34. Sassybabe

    Bigdaddy, why are you buying inverse ETFs when Gary Savage has made it so very clear that the market is going up? Do you know something he does not?

    1. Christian

      And now you understand why we’re always beating on his ASS — in a very gentle, loving way of course 🙂

    2. Bigdaddy

      Well Sassy, Gary is sometimes wrong. I get these gut feelings that usually turn out right if i wait long enough. I figured out that if i had not sold so soon, i would have made money on almost every thing i had ever bought. My wife says i am the smartest man she has ever known.

  36. Troy

    Thinking Oil and Energy may have bottomed today. Took a stab and added to UWT, GUSH & ERX. Still holding TQQQ and some DUST. I am ready to switch and go long JNUG when Gold’s DCL is completed.

      1. Nada

        Well lets see if the back test holds. I am looking for 1315 or higher at the moment. Miners are a good 2 months behind the move in gold, so when ever they “finally” decide to ignite, it should be interesting.

        On another note, USDJPY back tested the breakdown of the trendline and it appears it wants to drop lower. We must watch this one closely as it can be wiley.
        https://i.imgur.com/qkxJsqd.png

        and lets not forget our precious Dixie. She is in a battle for the 20ema at the moment. I hope she decides to close below;
        https://i.imgur.com/uANv1Bt.png

  38. Christian

    Gary — How does that dollar burrito bet you never really had to balls to make in the first place coming along?

    🙂

          1. Christian

            Again with the childish insults..

            This blog was about 100 times better when you weren’t around bud 😝

          2. Pedestrian

            Look Christian, if you want to throw barbs out and sit in judgement of others then expect to get the favour returned. You are not more special than anyone else. I don’t care for this tit-for-tat BS if you care to know but some people here really grate on my nerves and you are one of them with your pissy little girl attitude.

          3. Lenapowich

            Now pedestrian is calling Christian names. That troll of a man need to go somewhere else for his kicks. He really detracts from the quality of this blog site.

  40. Bigdaddy

    Well, no fill yet on USLV but I did pick up another 1000 SPXU at 14.78. Now have 3000 in total. I can’t believe the correction is done already. if it is, i am going to be pissed.

  44. JJHarmen

    Sass, I have to agree with BigD. Pay more attention to what Don, Gary, Nada, and Christian have to say. Don tells us when he is underwater on a position whereas Pedestrian almost never tells us what his positions are nor does he talk about losses as if they never occur. I think you can figure that one out for yourself.
    Good luck trading!

    1. Pedestrian

      Don is always underwater on his positions. At the moment all are in the red. Enough said. Anyone who wants to follow that trading model is welcome to it and I sure won’t stand in the way. Be my guest Sassy. Follow Don. 🙂

      1. Don

        Ped, there you go making shit up again, Will you ever stop doing that? Yes, my short SM positions are underwater except for some SRTY I have had since April.
        My silver positions are profitable even after today’s dip. I bought them when silver and gold were declining and everyone was waiting for the miners to take out the December lows. Some criticized me for accumulating but they didn’t make a dime off the recent silver rally because they were ‘watching’ and waiting.
        Ped, I don’t make up garbage about you and frequently copy and paste your very words, so stop making up nonsense about my positions, what I am up or down in, when you have no f___ing clue.

          2. Don

            No need to apologize Chris, I just call him an ass, short for asshole which is not really calling him names because it is an accurate description.

  45. Nada

    Mustang Sally, you still with us? Gary you still have that IP address, we may need to send someone over to the old folks home to see if MS is still kicking.

  48. Spanky

    metals and miners acting like they are setting up for another gap down open tomorrow. Does it ever happen any other way?

    1. Christian

      Why are you surprise? Gold and Miners are dropping into a DCL. You’ll get a great buying opportunity soon enough — patience grasshopper 🙂

  49. Lenapowich

    I thought GDX would be in big trouble today but it is holding up well. People here at the office are talking about Bitcoin but also about gold. Most do not trust the crypto currencies and are only thinking about putting money into gold or silver. All it would take is a catalyst and gold would take off.

    1. Nada

      Miners are annoying, but they are still delayed behind golds move. Let’s not forget, we had some nice buying on weakness yesterday. They don’t seem concerned about a little red. Gold back tested the Fire and Furry tweet, and retraced .618 of its move. We may move lower to .786, but so far things look good to me.

  51. Alexandru Popovici

    ZKOT, for my long USDMXN, stop loss below yesterday’s low, on leverage via cfd, expected time frame = minimum several months since I expect July set the YCL.
    Mind the right translation of the DC ended yesterday (most likely) and the extreme bearish CoT for MXN.

  52. Spanky

    GDXJ is in danger of moving down tomorrow to seek out the lower bollinger band on the daily chart (at 32.03). Would like to see it at least tag the 20 dma tomorrow instead. Given the whole golddaily cycle thing, I suppose I’m leaning toward a move down.

  53. Steffmeister

    I am a little bit disappointed that my largest holding (by far) is only up +18% today. Novo Resources is up 5dollars from 85c a couple of weeks ago, and I am expecting 10dollars next week a hundred dollars in September and probably 1000dollars in October. 1million dollar per share is not out of the question next year. I am also invested in two craptocurrencies
    bitCrap
    CrapCoin

    I think another 40000% this fall is a modest valuation!

    So yeah there you have it, I am probably the best trader in the world right now!

    …

  54. dboz

    I am very close to taking out the hatchet and removing my fingers so I won’t push the buy button. I am pulling my hair out. Entire market is a giant whipsaw and nothing short of brutal. Grinding out some small gains here and there, getting small losses here and there. Lots of work for minimal gain.

    Energy……no clue
    Metals……easier than miners
    Miners…….stay away
    SM……………different day same old story. All time highs looking possible here again. Got sucked into shorting this morning.

    Slightly up on crude, slightly down on miners, way down on SM short. Not a good day. Back at it tomorrow.

  55. Don

    Dboz: “I am very close to taking out the hatchet and removing my fingers so I won’t push the buy button.”Made me laugh, good one.

    1. Nada

      Also 59 million on GLD. Add that to the 134 million yesterday in GLD. The dip is being bought folks.

        1. Nada

          Well GLD is the most significant to watch for. Anything over 50 million is worth paying attention. For miners, anything over 100 million I would consider significant. However, I like to see +200 million and I have seen as high as +500 million in GDX. The highest I have seen for GDXJ is a little above 200.

          I am not saying its perfect. However, if used correctly it is a solid indicator to add to your arsenal. You have to remember that if an asset turns green during the day, then its BOW will fall off – same goes for SOS.. If there is a big sell on strength in the morning and then the asset turns red for the day, the SOS drops off. Thats why I have it scripted and I pull the data every 15 mins and dump in a database. For Miners, they always like to buy at end of day – but I have little details on how WSJ collects the data, I have sent multiple emails (as a paid subscriber) and receive no responses. I am not sure if any dark pool data is collected, so thats why its just a tool. With that said, follow the money.

    2. Troy

      Saw that too. It didn’t mean anything yesterday, but could be for tomorrow. Someone just gave me 28.50 for my DUST after-hours, so I took it. Too scared to hold it overnight.

      1. Nada

        Yep, it does not always mean anything. However, with back to back days of accumulating, I am interested in how it plays out.

  57. Don

    Declining issues more than double advancing today. New lows more than double new highs. The S&P closes down a mere 0.05% and the DOW up. As BD puts it so well: WTF?

    This nonsense cannot go on much longer folks. The market has become a market where only 10 stocks matter and when they start breaking down, it will be a blood bath. That is my prediction and I will not flip flop on that position.

    2. Gary Post author

      Most of the poor breadth is caused by energy.

      I don’t think we should assume that energy by itself will pull the whole Market down.

  58. zkotpen

    Nada

    “I posted my target earlier this morning with specifics.”

    “‘the yearly cycle rally out of the 2016 YCL was likely to be a double zig zag…’
    With that statement, up or down you are covered. I see what you did here :O”

    On the first count, who knows? So much social posturing from you pendejito, that I just page down thru everything.

    On the topic of your social posturing, as well as your twisting and utterly misrepresenting my words like the pendejito yellow journalist wannabe that you are, surely the way you’ve parsed my posts like a real market journalist parses FOMC meeting and minutes reports, I have made quite clear over the past 1-2 weeks where I believe gold and GDX are in that likely double zig zag. I don’t think I’ll bother to repeat.

    I’ve already given you some nice slices of filet mignon, which you have devoured, leaving behind only the stinkers that you post here (hence the gas mask… I’ve been wondering about that for quite some time). No point in throwing a nasty yapper as yourself the whole steak… the whole enchilada? Perhaps throw u a little deep fried pig gut so you can indulge in a little cannibalism?

    2. Pedestrian

      Wasting your energy Zkot. Try to focus on the charts instead. FWIW, Nada is one of the few people on the site with common sense and analytic skill. As an aside it does look like we could get a corrective move back up tomorrow in metals but I doubt it goes far. We will see. Tomorrow is not that far away.

  59. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    [To Don] “You need to get off my case. I have no time for people like you.”

    I recommend you page down right thru the Don. I read some of your reactions to him, because they are humorous. But, you know, if you have no time for him (I certainly do not)…

    Page Down is a solution!

    Of course, if you do, I’ll miss out on some humor! 🙂

    2. Christian

      I know you think PEDO is your friend on the blog ZKopten but he’s not — he’ll turn on you the very second you give him a chance. Don’t fall for his niceties 😉 You’re smarter than that.. I think?

        1. Christian

          I’m not implying anything you platypus. I’m asking you to stop being such a Dick and to tone down the Squabbles — why is this so hard for you to comprehend??

          2. Christian

            I tried to be cordial and it didn’t work, so now I’m speaking your language. You’re welcome!

  61. victor

    Market consolidating to move higher. A bit disappointments because of influenced CEO’s said f.. off to Trump. It’s o’k, market will forget it quickly and move on…
    Metals? Today’s retail sales showed green light to dollar. NK basked off. What we should expect from gold then? Even criptos in a better position…, I’m not shorting , but buying – no-no…
    Best to all.

  62. zkotpen

    Nada,

    Though I’ve not yet found your prediction for GDX, I see your chart with the red champagne glass for gold, and I’m pretty much on board with that forecast as an area to look for a bounce. I forgot to draw some of those lines on my chart, so I’ve arrived at the similar target by different means.

    You see, one key difference between you and me, and probably the one that makes me not particularly fond of you, is that when you say you posted your targets, I do have an open mind when I look at them. I put aside any feelings and take a look at the actual chart, not looking for it to be correct or incorrect. Just looking.

  63. zkotpen

    … and btw, I’ve also paid close attention to BOW for gld, gdx, gdxj, for Monday and Tuesday 🙂

    1. Nada

      Ahh, yes harmony is fine by me Zkotpen. I didn’t mention GDX, just targets for gold. I made reference to GDXJ the other day, but the breakout was negated on the 4h chart. I still have hope for the miners as their time table in behind gold, but as you are certainly aware, it has been chop;
      https://i.imgur.com/SVnJ3hr.png

      I think .618 holds, but prepared for .786. Best guess or what I would like to see in gold;
      https://i.imgur.com/d8CPMWl.png

  64. zkotpen

    Nada,

    “I am not saying its perfect. However, if used correctly it is a solid indicator to add to your arsenal.”

    I agree. For me, “used correctly” means that BOW/SOS are always subordinate to the math. Statistics and patterns trump these social indicators… always. So Monday’s and Tuesday’s BOW numbers are a case of jumping the gun… which I will infer you agree with, per your gold chart (again, I still don’t know what your GDX target is).

  65. zkotpen

    Pedestrian,

    “FWIW, Nada is one of the few people on the site with common sense and analytic skill.”

    I think you’re right. I’ve taken Nada off my “page down list” today and I see the value in his posts.

    And from being “left-leaning ambidextrous” all my life (about 55-60% to 45-40% dexterity split between left- and right-handed, with equal strength in both arms), I don’t have a problem with heavy left-brain types per se. I offer them my peace accord, as you see above. From there, it’s a choice for them, and I fully comprehend the challenge facing them: The left brain is inherently suspicious of anything it doesn’t understand on a logical level.

    Remember, I’m in highly rigid, structured East Asian society, where there is huge social pressure to break any child of any signs of left-handedness.

    1. zkotpen

      … funny I have a left-brain photographer friend whose photography I don’t particularly care for, but I respect his technical knowledge and skill, and grateful that he has shared some technical suggestions with me from time to time.

      In our conversations, I often stress that the best composition in the world will not outlive its composer if it’s not founded on a solid technical base.

      He always retorts by pointing out Capa’s classic D-Day photo as a technically flawed masterpiece.

      Of course, now that I take a careful look at that image, it’s not so technically flawed. If you can imagine Capa is physically in between the Nazis and the Americans on Omaha Beach… the subject’s face is clearly in focus. Sure, I can see the effects of a little hand-shake… but who would expect Capa to take the time to set up a tripod in such circumstances?

      http://100photos.time.com/photos/robert-capa-d-day

      1. dboz

        You are wasting your time in stocks. You should be spending your time writing a novel. Set it around Gold Rush. Work from there.

    2. Pedestrian

      Great news, Zkot. It’s not possible to get along with everyone but we can almost always reconcile and make peace when we choose.

  66. Goild

    Good evening,

    You guys are awesome, keep this blog alive and hopefully you have good profit today.
    I cane back to trade and was able to reduce my loss by $130. I am still holding the 1000 JNUG shares.
    Don is buying silver, Nada is happy about the GDX volume, so I may recover by Friday.
    Though the gold candles are horribly bearish.
    The vacation is almost over.
    We need to rise the bar, better trading, better blog posts, and good humor.
    Have a nice night.

    1. Pedestrian

      Looks like you will get a bounce out of your JNUG tomorrow but I don’t think it will be enough to cover your buy from yesterday before resuming the decline. It’s really been struggling to get above the 50 for some time now and I think we will see a low 15 handle in short order.

  68. dboz

    Sold my UWT after-hours. I just can’t trust energy right now. Decent gains. Also sold my JNUG near the close. Basically break even. Don’t trust miners here. Metals pullback looks real steep right now. UUP is showing the dollar rise may already be over.

  69. zkotpen

    Since I’ve somehow gotten on the subject of photography, and photography has always been cathartic for me, I will use it to explain why I can be cryptic:

    I produced a little body painting installation with some Scandinavian models in Mexico in April, 2003. I did the photography.

    Six months later, those same friends and I were 6650km away in South America, and one of them pointed to a promotional poster on display in a high-traffic public area, and cried out: “Hey, isn’t that one of YOUR photos of L & ME?”

    It was a photo I had posted on the internet. No credit, no permission, no compensation.

    In May, 2003, I did an even better body painting production at a pyramid site with some of the same supporting cast, posting photos on the same bilingual website. Six months later, somebody else from even further away in South America was interested in my photos and body painting production — that person requested permission, offering credit, and compensation.

    That was long before all this social networking. I’ve learned to be guarded. That’s all.

  70. dboz

    Did you expect to do the work for pay? I know you said you come from humble beginnings. As the saying goes, once poor, never rich. Those scars are tough to overcome. You seem to be rather paranoid in general and always guard what you say. We can get into the psychology of that? You seem deeply concerned someone will use you for their gain with nothing returned to you. Why do you feel people owe you? Just give for the sake of giving and don’t expect anything in return. You will be happier for it and probably actually end up getting more in return.

  71. dboz

    The joy of helping others can be rewarding without the exchange of tangibles. Do you ever feel good that someone liked your photo enough to actually use it like that? No one likes to be stolen from, but take pride you did good work that was used commercially. Be happy in that alone.

  74. dboz

    Anyway, keep life in perspective. You are alive healthy and intelligent. Money can’t buy any of those things.

  75. dboz

    And, thanks for sharing on here. Just be more direct. Do you really think a few hundred people will skew the market if you give out direct info. Be the man who knows. No more cryptic thoughts. Straight forward info.

  76. Gary Post author

    Gold managed to hold above the cycle trend line and the 10 DMA. I’ll say this, I’m not completely convinced that the cycle has topped yet. There is a scenario where gold has one more pop higher, stocks one more drop lower and the dollar rolls over to test the 2016 low. I think it is a low percentage scenario but still possible. I’ll go over it in tonights report.

  77. zkotpen

    Goild

    “What can of a mind you need to naturally go long, short, or both?”

    You need to be in “the Zone” — totally unfettered.

    I highly recommend the audio version. Each of us human beings has a lot of baggage (self-vexing beliefs) in our heads — we need to just toss it aside and get in the Zone:

    -One approaches each moment in the market free from bias, with zero expectations;

    and

    -The market itself is uncertain in its every move.

    So you calculate your risk as the amount you are willing to lose each time your system generates a signal and set your stop loss accordingly and objectively define your potential risk. You also calculate your projected target and objectively define your potential reward. Risk:reward should exceed 1:3 to make the trade viable, and make you profitable even if you trade coin flips (50:50 probabilities).

    I like to take that sound wisdom one step further: Use the 1:3 risk:reward ratio as a sort of maximum, but try to get that number as close to zero as possible. If you can do that — if and ONLY IF YOUR NUMBERS BACK YOU UP, then you can increase position size and/or jack up the leverage, simply by keeping the “actual amount at risk” constant.

    And that’s the advantage of better market analysis: It allows you to make your stop loss tighter, which decreases your risk:reward ratio on a given trade with a given target (again, as your targets are proven quantitatively by your historical performance). With the tighter stop, you can safely toss more logs onto the fire and not have it blow up in your face (your actual dollars at risk does not change).

    Again, to super emphasize: ONLY if your own historical performance backs you up can you safely jack up the position size and leverage. And even so, you MUST maintain the parameters of risk:reward < 1:3; AND amount at risk is constant, based on your sound risk management procedures.

    Cheers!

    1. zkotpen

      CORRECTION: This should read “Risk:reward should BE LESS THAN 1:3 to make the trade viable, and make you profitable even if you trade coin flips (50:50 probabilities).”

      Sorry — Freudian slip made me get that backwards!! To be clear, risk:reward should be lower than 1:3 to make the trade viable!!!

    2. Gary Post author

      Just my experience from 20 years of trading.

      Tight stops more often than not end up whipsawing one out of potentially winning trades. So you make a lot more trades than you should, and you lose on a lot of trades that you would have won on if you had given the trade more room to work.

      1. zkotpen

        I appreciate this caveat. It must be heeded… thanks!

        Your system for generating buy/sell signals should also generate your stops. If your system warrants tightening the stops — without causing whipsaws — then you can tighten, and thereby achieve the benefits of decreasing risk:reward while maintaining amount risked constant.

        The key point is, responsible risk management principles must determine the amount you are willing to risk on any trade, and that is a function of your equity. If not, it’s just gambling.

        But within that constant, equity-based amount at risk, you can safely improve your returns by doing your absolute best to get your risk:reward as close to zero as possible.

        Of course, one must be totally honest with oneself in determining the responsible amount at risk, and also in calculating risk:reward for any trade.

  78. zkotpen

    dboz,

    Actually, I just shrugged it off and chuckled at the time…. I never expected any reward, nor did I want one. Requesting permission would have been nice, and so would credit. I was amused at the time…

    …though I believe my Scandinavian friends were a bit astonished, as they were painted stark naked… though they weren’t particularly bothered either, as they come from a rather liberal society… at least in some regards. (Lars von Trier will point out how they do not).

    Still, I was aware of what had happened.

    All of my major projections have been produced by others — but I was not in a position to produce most of them:

    -I couch-surfed across North America just before that trip down to Mexico, and even a little just after. 25,000km. I “e-hitchhiked” the whole way. The domain “couchsurfing.org” was registered a year later.

    -I described/discussed a scenario of all phone calls being global with someone who worked for AT&T in “new technology” — 3 years before Skype came into existence.

    Sure, I didn’t actually do those things or some other innovative ideas I’ve had. But I wasn’t in a position to do them, and others were — fortunately, they got done! Heck, even last week — now that I’m on a big Errol Flynn kick — I was thinking “there needs to be a bippic called “In like Flynn”… I go on IMDB and sure enough, some Aussie producers are making such a film… I only hope the do a beautiful and elegant job of it, as I will certainly watch it!

    but this market stuff… this is what I was born to do. Not hobby, not area of interest — and at its core, not even money-driven, though if I do a good job of it, I can make a decent living from it.

    No, my friend, it is my science and I love science.
    Always have, ever since I can remember 🙂

  79. Goild

    Dboz,

    After your JUNG comment I placed an order to sell at $16.82. Only 100 remain, and today loss is $638.
    I paid for someone else lunch and am happy I did not lose $5K or $10K.
    How are you doing? Are you well green?

    1. dboz

      I was green by about 20 cents. I was more green on UWT. Sold out of another batch of UGAZ earlier today. Still holding JNUG and UWT for the contest. I should have sold but don’t want to fry Gary. Wait and see how tomorrow goes.

  80. Goild

    Zkot, let me ask, are you making money trading?
    Good money?

    The 1:3 guideline makes sense but by today standards/markets it might be obsolete, or you have to wait a long time.
    How many trades have you made with that rule this month?

  82. Goild

    OIL is going down, likely now pulling GOLD down, USD might bounce higher, all bad luck for the miners.
    If you drink to do not trade. Cost of two glasses of wine at an Italian restaurant $650.75.

    1. dboz

      I have not written oil off completely yet but it’s on very thin ice. If it hits 46, then yeah, down goes Frazier.

  83. kinik007

    This might be of interest to folks. The North Korea thing may not be done, not by a long shot.

    http://bit.ly/2fJ1kJ0

    If this is true, it adds to Gary’s theory that we have not topped out on this DC for Gold/Miners.

  84. zkotpen

    Some things to consider right now:

    As always, FOMC meeting/minutes are always good for 1-3 reversals. Friday’s top looks like 1.

    Tuesday, USDJPY, sliced right thru its 5 day SMA and is now finding a temporary perch on its 20 day SMA.

    Gold then sliced thru its 5 day SMA. Then GDX gapped right thru its 5 day SMA, landing on its 20 day SMA.

    I think gold is likely to find temporary support on its 20 day SMA as well.

    Plus, all moves look incomplete to me: GDX and gold both move down a little more — to Nada’s red champagne glass or thereabouts, and USDJPY up to the 111 area.

    Then comes the bounce — I think it will not exceed Friday’s high (or lows in USDJPY) — but I do think it will go thru 2pm Wednesday, and then we will see what looks likely after that.

    So that’s what it looks like to me: A little more down in gold and miners, up in USDJPY, then reverse, then see how things shake out after FOMC minutes.

  85. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “The 1:3 guideline makes sense but by today standards/markets it might be obsolete, or you have to wait a long time.”

    The 1:3 risk:reward ratio is ironclad — it is simple math, especially if you are trading coin flips, in which you lose as many trades as you win. That ratio guarantees you will still be profitable, even at a little worse than coin flips — so long as you adhere to it rigidly.

    Imagine that: You number of winning trades equals your number of losing trades, but you still make a profit. Nothing wrong with that!

    If you need things to move more quickly, why not look at USDZAR and EURZAR? Most action during 12 hours of the day when Europe/South Africa are awake, especially when US markets start joining the party… 06 to 18 or 20hs UTC.

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