A lot of things are happening in the currency markets that have rarely happened before. Incredibly powerful trending moves are occurring with no corrections and minimal counter trend moves. While the dollar is collapsing, stocks, gold and oil are moving higher.
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Everything appears to be flagging before another leg up. Driven presumably by another push lower in the dollar to test the 2016 low.
It is extremely hard to envision a sustained rally in GDXJ when it is underperforming GLD so badly.
GDXJ has held up in purely technical terms, but it’s hard to believe it is on the cusp of a launch higher right here after a large 4 week advance in $gold. It is also down vs GDX since July.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p33531880603&a=537806547&listNum=1
I’m long, but extremely skeptical based on past performance of GDXJ when it consolidates vs GLD in such a fashion.
The FED wanted inflation and the what better way to get it than to drop the dollar hard and fast.
The Fed has been saying they want inflation, and yet they have ended QE, raised rates multiple times and are about to start reducing their balance sheet. Does that sound like they actually want “inflation,” at least the not-good kind, i.e., commodity inflation?
If they are worried about too little inflation, why are they reducing their balance sheet in September?
It will take them decades to unwind the mess they’ve created. They will never make it in time before the consequences hit. (bubbles).
And they don’t care if the liquidity is unleashed in the stock market in a semi-controlled fashion. Unfortunately, I now believe the CBs truly are masters of the universe, and if they think the SM is getting too hot, they will just get it to go sideways to slightly up so that the MAs can catch up and momentum indicators can cool off.
After the Dow hits 23000, I expect a 3-5% correction. We could even get a smaller magnitude correction (months of sideways to slightly upward action after an initial 1-3% plunge to get momentum oscillators moving down).
The assumption that FED wants to reduce balance sheet etc is bogus… remember this whole thing is designed to keep the populace enslaved…
They have explicitly stated this.
Platinum is having another good day. Pedestrian, what do your impressive chart reading skills tell you about platinum now?
Why are you asking Pedestrian? I don’t get it.
I don’t get it either. They use to bicker all the time but I’m starting to think that Don has always secretly had a bit of a ‘hard on’ for Pedestrian the garden gnome ๐
SLV has so far held above the 10 day EMA. I suppose everything should be made clear about its short term direction by tomorrow morning.
So far. it is a good day with everything going as i planned, except for Facebook. But, we must be cautious because we’ve seen this before with a morning sell off and then another push up. It’s just horseshit, i know, but it is what it is.
The definition of insanity: continuing to do the same thing over and over expecting a different result.
The market is running out of time to deliver a significant correction. We are getting too close to the Jackson Hole meeting. They will make sure the market is at, or near the all time highs for that. We really needed to be down big by now and it’s just not happening.
Skip lunch today.
Nooky?
Gary – If I recall, you raised the possibility that the dollar was forming a left translated 3 year cycle and showed a chart illustrating such an occurrence in your May 27 Weekend Report. This scenario would see the dollar fall below the 2014 YCL/3YCL of around $79 and test the 2011 YCL/3YCL of around 73. Is that correct?
If this is a left translated 3 YC like I think then who knows how far it collapses. Bear markets tend to last about 7-8 years.
GDXJ 2 hour chart holding together and MAs are still bullishly aligned.
Someone posted that such short timeframe charts are worthless.
However, the short TF charts will turn long before the longer TF charts. With respect to the 2 hour chart in particular, you can clearly see that bullishly aligned LT MAs that are rising is a prerequisite of any sustained bull run, and we clearly have that right now in GDXJ. As I said, the last time the 20, 50, 100 and 200 period MAs on the 2 hour chart were this tight and bullishly aligned in descending order was in January 2016. FWIW.
I didn’t say the 2 hour chart was worthless but I question its validity in predicting anything, but hey if it works for you go for it.
Gary, I couldn’t disagree with you more. This move is not any different previous dollar moves coming off an 8yr cycle. Your logic is really distorted when analyzing the dollar. We have major monthly resistance in the 93 to 92 range, We have large spec’s turning bearish on the COT which I have been stating for months now is a prerequisite for the 3yr cycle low. What your doing is not analyzing markets in any way shape or form. You keep saying that you are not any good at currencies and yet you continue with these magic 8 ball predictions. WTF!!!
Holy sheep shit!. That platinum is really taking off. What is up with that? Does it usually lead gold and silver?
No
No, it has just underperformed gold for so long, it’s payback time (for a day or two, lol). The ratio chart looks terrible for platinum, even if it could bounce here meagerly:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24PLAT%3A%24GOLD&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67194430369&a=537812751&listNum=1
Spanky: How do you play ratio charts? To bring that ratio chart back to where you think it should be, should gold go down or platinum up or both go up up with platinum going up faster or perhaps both go down with gold going down faster? What’s it going to be?
You can obviously see the trend in the charts first of all.
I think for these ratios, knowing the historical average can help you to gauge when you think something is over or under valued relative to something else.
If you can see the monthly chart, $plat has been a huge downtrend vs gold since 2008. It’s current value vs gold is now basically back to the low seen in 1982, which is the lowest low I can see (the chart only goes back to 1980). Based on this chart, platinum is clearly undervalued vs gold, bigtime. That being said, I’m not sure what platinum did vs gold over the last 50-100 years.
From 1982 to 2008, platinum rallied huge against gold. The is a hell of a long trend obviously. God only knows how much longer the current trend favoring gold will last. Another 20 years???
You have concluded, from the long term ratio chart, that platinum is undervalued vs gold, implying that platinum should go up, correct? Consider, that exact same ratio chart could also mean that gold is overvalued vs platinum and that gold needs to go down! How one interprets ratio charts depends on one’s bias and only make sense with hind-sight.
Ratio charts are eye candy and nothing more. If you want to spend time on them, that is your prerogative but don’t expect they will ever provide you with some kind of trading ‘edge’ because logically, they can’t.
Never said anything about platinum going up or down.
It IS historically undervalued, based on a 40 year chart. That is all I can say.
Yes, of course, all the ratio tells you is RELATIVE value.
Also, based on that monthly chart, you could reasonably argue that if you think gold is going up over the next years, decade etc. platinum *should* go up even more based on it current relative low and oversold value.
I just bought 500 SLV at 15.75. I am back up to 1000 with an average price of 15.51. Get on board guys, silver is headed back up.
An Apple a day keeps the doctor at bay … how about this chart?
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4355/35955768840_4e6328049c_b.jpg
Looking bullish for miners.
B-waves are often prolonged just look at an oil chart. I think it will end up in a triangle before breaking down in 2018.
Long live Gold&Silver miners ๐
Useless information: The strongest stock market in the world in the past month has been that of Nigeria (NGE), up 17% Over the past year, Austria (EWO), up 57% followed by (GREK), up 48%.
Nigeria is a big oil producer. That may be a clue as to where crude is headed.
GDX appears to be consolidating rather than selling off. The next big move should be up (hopefully).
I would have to agree.. especially if that reversal in Gold holds and breaks to new highs.
That being said, not sure I like the look of GDX 15 min chart, below:
https://www.tradingview.com/x/GJkQW1Y5/
That is one ugly chart but it would be more meaningful if that were a weekly chart pattern. 15 minutes is just too short and could be invalidated in a few minutes of trading. Still, I don’t like it either!
True, but a lot can happen in 15 minutes.. especially when you’re trading a triple leverage ๐ Buyer beware.
That’s not a reversal in gold Christian. It is merely a corrective rise along a rolling top with the trajectory now pointing down. You can see it best on the hourly chart. Check this link (valid for today only since its an hourly). I think the top is already in and a trending move down is dead ahead so be careful.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=h1
whip saw action coming soon… I think… looking at the dollar chart, my gut feel is that it will bounce soon and that should get lot of people on the wrong train…
Having the miners sell down from highs every single day is frustrating.
You were pretty pumped up about that 6 cent move up yesterday.
GDX/$HUI is riding the 200 dma.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p62316559812&a=537827525&listNum=1
Not even sure if a significant break upwards for 1-2 days can even be trusted, again primarily due to how overbought gold/yen is.
I am long miners, but have been long for 2 years now. I am hanging on here out of nothing more than hope. If they break down, depending on the severity, its quite possible we won’t see the 2016 highs for many many years.
For now, they are more or less holding support on the monthly chart (the 20 WMA and the 50 WMA) and the weekly charts (100 and 200 WMAs) so there is really nothing to do but wait.
Appears we will have to wait for NFP catalyst to get a larger move in one direction or another. Its all speculation until the report, but another candidate is the .382 on the Monthly.
https://i.imgur.com/YUHzxvG.png
If its headed to where some think, then the gann intersection at .618 would be most precarious. I personally believe we should receive some counter-trend bounce at the 200wma that produces HCL or ICL, but its only a guess. Then again when I look at the UJ weekly chart, it has the potential to unleash a monster. Flip a coin.
Arguably, GDX and GLD are forming bull flags so far this week.
I’m back from walking the dog. Those pills i got from the vet are sure keeping him regular. You could almost set your watch by his dump time.
I see i haven’t missed a thing. I think the SM is exactly where it was an hour ago although FB is down some now. That’s a positive.
Gold and silver are going to take off, i can feel it in my gut. The miners are refusing to capitulate so that means they will eventually go up. trust my gut feeling guys because it is a finely tuned indicator.
Is this gut feeling with or without pills ๐
LOL! Maybe the mutt is our contrary indicator.
Your “gut feeling” is probably as good as any indicator.
The dog can testify that ๐
OK, I just set my large miner bear position.
Tomorrow is probably a 50/50 coinflip.
If I’m wrong, you’ll know who’s money you’re taking…
Relax, you won’t be wrong.
And here we are 24 hours later…..Told ya!
Huge move up in DRIP today. It is getting close to my shorting point. If it rises more than another $1 without stopping – it just defies all technical analysis and charting.
That being said – it looks like it’s on its way back to the upper channel trendline eventually at $29.
I have orders in the buy ERY
I just wonder if the oil ETF’s (bullish) are selling off in anticipation of the big announcement Trump is going to make tonight when he speaks from West Virginia (coal country??
What’s the announcement? Cheers
JNUG trading below its 10 day SMA is not really good news for the bulls. This is a really good time to exercise a little caution and common sense. Before getting too gung-ho you bulls really should read the technicals on the chart.
Pedestrian
What did I say that gave you the idea that I was “pumped up” yesterday on a 6 cent move by GDX? I have been holding GDX for months and waiting and waiting, like all the other bulls. Anyway, the fact that you are bearish gives me hope.
Your post to me yesterday made no sense.
Ped: Your posts always make sense which is why you are dangerous to anyone who thinks you know something because although you make sense, you are almost always wrong. Then you disappear and come back and do the same thing all over again. We know you can’t interpret a chart worth a shit but that doesn’t stop you from talking as if you can.
Told you oil had peaked on the day it happened.
Told you that Canadian dollar topped out.
Told you about the top in gold and silver and it looks like I got that right too.
Who is the bullshitter Mr Donkey Con?
It remains to be seen if the oil and the Canadian dollar have ‘topped out” I very much doubt that. As far as gold and silver goes, topped out for how long? A few days, a week, month??
So you’re not in the contest, eh?
Ped
You didn’t answer my question but forget about it. I don’t care.
Sure I did. You posted blather at me yesterday for no good reason.
Funny how both JNUG and USLV are both sitting on the daily PSAR – either they’ll bounce off that PSAR or break it – but tomorrow we should know the direction at least to the next pivot point.
MustangS must be pleased, assuming she is still holding JDST.
Or is ‘he’?
XOP and XLE are getting hit hard over a rather small decline in oil.
I’m projecting JDST will eventually see 118 and change as this bear unfolds. It should be a memorable move if it pans out the way it looks right now. Almost a double.
Did you see that number in a dream?
It”s on the chart. We will see how close I come in good time.
All you people (includes transgendered and neutered), that are short the stock market, be patient as the time is coming for a payoff. I have a feeling sooner than later.
And buy silver because the pullback is about over.
And don’t listen to that pedestrian goof. He got me once and cost me a bundle, never again.
Not my fault you are a sheep.
JDST to 118…… LOL!!! I’m laffin so hard that the dog is barking ( his way of yukking it up).
Muahahaha, it seems this chop is driving bears and bulls mad. Lots of snarky comments today – much more pleasurable to read.
LOL! Yeah, the bulls get that way. Especially when it looks like I am going to be correct (as usual).
Overall good day for me four positions into nice profits and two minor losers. I might be on later tonight for those who are interested in what I have to say.
Speak Bigdaddy
Even losers can win, GPRO up 14% in after hours.
Gold looking bearish here on the 4 hr and now on the 20 min:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/gold-4-hr-context-from-slope-analysis-is-telling-us-everything-we-needed-to-know-here/
RWM (bearish Russell ETF) breaching to the upside here:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/03/the-power-of-slopes-inverse-russell-breaching-on-the-weekly/
Confirming the bearish context flagged on the /ES last week:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/07/27/es-d-confirmation/
It’s interesting how Mustang Sally just suddenly goes quiet when the ‘PEDO” makes an appearance on the blog.. Could this be a coincidence?
You need some attention too, Gary “Christian” Savage?
Both perma-bears with the smell of the same dump;)
๐
That was BigDodo’s dog, not us.
Getting back to business…
Just doing some charting here and I have to tell you Euro-bulls that you are going to get absolutely creamed if you don’t change course and check your chart lines. It is setting up for a magnificent fall that could begin in early September and that tells us gold could well get smashed in the teeth as the dollar roars back to life.
I would not want to be on the wrong side of that trade once it begins. We are talking crash-city.
I hope/think you’re right! You’ve done some fine work in the past!
Well thank you Bigglaze. Recognition is a rare commodity on this site.
That means load the truck with miners in Sept., Don.
Dboz, I have plenty of miners (and silver) right now and I don’t think we will have to wait until September. That said, when Know Nothing Ped starts talking gold crash…. get ready to back up the truck.
You would think OIL just dove off the cliff if you only looked at GUSH…….what a FLUSH. Oil could be preparing to absolutely tank.
Gold and oil are trading together these days and in conjunction with a falling Canadian dollar we have a negative setup for all three trades if you have been long. Gold is also near the top of its range vis-a-vis the monthly chart channel and very unlikely to see a breakout given the current technical’s. All in all it looks like the three will fall together. USD meanwhile is seriously oversold and just waiting in the wings for a strong bounce that should knock the shit right out of gold just as it weakens.
Call it a perfect storm. The bulls might as well get under a rock while they still have time.
Looks like we have a new blogger/analyst join the ranks. Hey Ex Nihilo tell us about your site and more importantly, have you entered the bingo game? I have not seen your posts before, so if you are not new, please still fill me in about your specifics. Cheers
Hi Nada –
Happy to be among the group. I trade based on median line analysis which uses pitchforks to generate slopes to trade… Although most of the content (charts and trades) is private to members, there are plenty of public posts on the blog to get a flavor for how I chart and trade the slopes. Basically, I use context within those slopes to position ourselves for trend reversals before they happen ( a type of contrarian investing approach) which I think is critical for consistent long term success to beat the house…
I do not know what the bingo game is?
[email protected]?
Are you fishing for new subscribers here?
Food for thought: I agree with Gary that this cycle is behaving like a first daily cycle out of an ICL.
However, I don’t like this…
https://www.tradingview.com/x/hnXp6zGX/
For those of you still on the fence, here’s how I would play this:
If Gary’s right, then I would wait for the next DCL in this new intermediate trend before pulling the trigger. If he’s wrong, then we’ll all get a chance to buy at a much lower price.
Either way folks, there’s no rush.. because if this is indeed the beginning of a new intermediate trend then there will be plenty of time to make money on the LONG side ๐
I would say (and this is just an observation) that most of you STILL need to learn to exercise patience.
Sensible post. I could get along with someone like you if you were not such a jerk with me all the time.
You brought it upon yourself when you first showed up on this blog Ped. And at least I’m not abusive like some have been in the past. Plus, a little bit banter has never killed anyone ๐
Bigdaddy takes it like a champ every day..!
Indeed he does. All of it self inflicted.
You can’t get along with anyone for very long Ped. Your shitty personality is just too deeply ingrained. Sorry it has to be that way. Must be your mother’s fault, eh?
Honestly, I’m as sweet as a spring cherry Donny and my arse smells like flowers.
Yep, I think we can all agree this is not acting like a potential LT cycle. However, it may be exactly that. Until we have confirmation with the break below 1204 or a new high in the cycle, we will all be speculating. I know Gary can sound very convincing and will probably follow up with a post on how retail jackasses are never going to make any money because they lack massive balls, but hey thats what makes this site great.
HA HA HA!!
+1
LOL! So very well put Nada.
Chris: For sure, rounding tops are not something to ignore. There is also an obvious double head and shoulder formation that is scary looking. Gold must move up decisively and break out of the pattern or it’s not going to be a fun time for the bulls.
I don’t have a lot into the miners but a fair sized stake in silver so I hope the pattern is just a setup to scare as many out of their longs as possible.
The alpha wave is long in the tooth, watch for a turn Monday.
IBD’s take on the action today:
The Nasdaq whittled off less than 0.4%, while the S&P 500 trimmed 0.2%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.6%. The Dow Jones industrial average added less than 0.1%.
Volume rose slightly on the Nasdaq, which resulted in a distribution day for the composite. Preliminary data also showed higher NYSE volume. If confirmed, it would be a distribution day also for the S&P 500.
The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have gone two weeks without a daily gain of at least 0.5%. Only the Dow Jones industrial average has surpassed that yardstick. The Dow logged a 0.5% gain twice in the past 10 sessions.
Down moves haven’t been much different.
The Divergence Factor
The Dow’s recent leadership isn’t necessarily a good thing for the stock market. With only 30 components, the gauge doesn’t say much about the overall market.
The Dow has outperformed the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 since July 12. A continuation of that divergence would suggest a weakening in the broader market.
As IBD founder William O’Neil wrote in “How to Make Money in Stocks,” The blue chip “Dow’s new high in January 1984 was accompanied by a divergence in the indexes: the broader-based more significant S&P 500 did not hit a new high. This is the reason most professionals plot the key indexes together โ to make it easier to spot nonconfirmations at key turning points.”
The Dow has marked a new high in each of the past seven sessions. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 have failed to make a new high in each of the past five sessions.
Such divergences don’t occur at every market top, but this certainly is worth watching. Keep in mind that the Dow’s outperformance is largely due to strong gains by Boeing (BA) and to a lesser extent some other components
Christian,
I am taking your advice again and moving on ๐
Similarly, hope you & Pedestrian can come to a peaceful arrangement!
Zkot, you are taking it too personal. I am not really in a war with Christian. Its just entertainment. You might want to cut Robert some slack though. I always liked that guy. Hopefully he returns.
Indeed, I’ve moved on, as stated above… though I’ve grown more cautious as a result of it. Plus, I did give him a technique to help him deal with his temper.
ZKOT: When you say “moving on”, is that what I am hoping it means? It sure would save some of us from having to go through a lot of scrolling past your rambling mental masturbation. It doesn’t matter how fast one can scroll, it still takes time and there is always the risk of missing what someone else may have said that could be relevant.
Pedestrian,
I’m happy to see you getting along w/ Christian — since both of you offer a lot of value here!
Similarly, happy to see you on the offensive against Donkey Con & Big Dodo — two adders of negative value.
Pun intended ๐
Turning to Christian’s chart for gold, let me remind folks that I have been mentioning a possible or likely double zig zag wave C for gold’s multi-year triangle since September of last year.
I give far more significance to wave C of triangle than most wave principle adherents.
Those people — “Elliotticians” are RN Elliott’s disciples — his followers. I pick up where he left off and move it forward.
That’s where my work begins. I don’t regurgitate “The Elliott Wave Principle”, rather, I begin where they leave off and move forward. That book needs a complete rewrite!
… at any rate, wave C of triangle is less forceful than wave A, especially as it moves into the second zig zag of the double.
Case in point:
Remember St. Paddy’s Day, 2014???
EVERYBODY was clamoring for new highs, that the August, 2013, peak would be exceeded.
And when I say EVERYBODY, that includes one guy whose initials are the same as a famous surfboard manufacturer… ๐
DUST has a beautiful round bottom ๐ I’m tempted to take a nibble.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/0i37tfXF/
Damnit! I also forgot to point out the DOUBLE BOTTOM on that chart which further solidifies the potential for an upward bounce.
Don’t know a thing about “round bottoms” but a proper double bottom is where the second leg down goes lower than the first leg down so as to shake out the “weak” holders – that does not happen in this case – doesn’t mean it cant work it’s just that it has more success if that occurs.
Oh I think you do know a thing or two about “round bottoms” blue ๐ Especially with that Moustache.
That would be correct!
I put the numbers from today’s session on the Dow into my model and I am still holding my breath!!! OMG!!!
When the market gives that price and time relationship, almost always it turns direction. Recent examples, Gold (11 July 2016, Wheat 5 July 2017, SPX 27 18 May 2015). However, when the market goes through, the prevailing trend accelerates even more. I had a turning point on the 27-31 July. The SPX and the NDQ made a high exactly on the day with the SPX giving also fantastic price symmetry as well. Normally it should give a correction here. However, the DJIA has moved higher so far. Giving that the precise geometry that is required to get a set-up, I will assume that the DJIA has ignored that timeframe. Nevertheless, today’s high left me speechless. Tomorrow the high from 1906 will come into force with an even stronger date coming on the 9th of August. If this market is going to turn down it will have to do that quickly otherwise the above cycles will expire. Eitherway, this market is preparing for a realy big move. Most likely to the downside. But be prepared for the other scenario as well.
Tx Palobar, I’ve sold most of my common stock positions. I am waiting for a complete minor wave three and a wave 4 correction. It is either extended or my count is wrong.
We need a correction here to energize a final multi month wave 5 up imo.
Talking about cycles, I am no expert, but I am learning. Look back in history and you got the same events just different names. History repeats itself just as fractals do. Just one example. I’ve mentioned before a major geopolitical violance peak is about to happen in September. For some reason there is a cycle with a 34year wave length (a fib-number) we end up at 1983. Looking at September that year we will find:
September 1 โ Cold War: Korean Air Lines Flight 007 is shot down by Soviet Union Air Force Su-15 Flagon pilot Major Gennadi Osipovich near Moneron Island when the commercial aircraft enters Soviet airspace. All 269 on board are killed including U.S. Congressman Larry McDonald.
or
September 23 Gulf Air Flight 771 crashes in the United Arab Emirates after a bomb explodes in the baggage compartment, killing 117.
What if that cycle-fractal kicks in again in September 2017? No it’s not possible to predict the future, but if history repeats …
“Nada
August 3, 2017 at 12:50 pm
Whatโs the announcement? Cheers”
As I know at least 2mln ton of coil from Virginia sold to Ukraine. …
West Virginia’s Democratic governor is switching parties
Looks like it could be a bad day for tech stocks tomorrow:
Applied Optoelectronics said late Thursday that it sees third-quarter revenue at $107 to $115 millionย in the September quarter vs. Zacks Research estimates of $126 million.
The maker of optical equipment cited “softer than expected demand for our 40G solutionsย with one of our large customers.” Amazon is seen as Applied Opto’s No. 1 customer, accounting for more than half its business. Facebook (FB) and Microsoft (MSFT), which also have huge data-center needs, also are notable customers. There has been speculation that Amazon and other big techs would build or assemble some of their own optical gear.
Applied Opto had raised guidance several times during the year and preannounced strong Q2 results on July 13, so the warning shocked investors.
Shares fell 27% to 71.20 in late trading. Applied Opto had risen 318% in 2017 through Thursday’s close.
Because of that huge run-up, the stock hadn’t offered good buying opportunities for months, aside from a couple of pullbacks to the 50-day moving average. But it’s never a good sign to have the No. 1 stock in the No. 1-rated group stumble.
And it’s not the only signs of trouble for the booming, volatile optical sector. Lagging group members Acacia Communications (ACIA) and Infinera (INFN) also had bad news late, with Acacia seeing weaker revenue and Infinera missing on sales. Late Tuesday,ย Macom Technology Solutions (MTSI), a maker of chips used in optical fields, warned of weaker China demand, sending shares crashing.
Lumentum, which has been setting up in a consolidation and finding support at its 50-day moving average, fell 2.7% to 60.76 in late trade. Lumentum briefly crossed a 67.40 buy point in late July but pulled back. Lumentum, which will report earnings next week, has been seen as a winner because of upcoming smartphones adding 3D sensor components, including Apple’s iPhone.
Stocks are still trying to complete a HCL. Short term sentiment needs to get a little more bearish still and the McClellan oscillator a little more oversold.
Once the market fully recharges then we’re going to see 2500 before the Jackson Hole event.
After that I would expect a deeper correction. Maybe price comes back down to retest the channel breakouts in Sept.
That’s why I sold half my TVIX. Could go either way tomorrow. Thought it would be down but seems everyone is expecting that so my guess will be it launches up. Still have room to give TVIX a chance but running out of time. Of course last August took the entire month of agonizing sideways grind before finally yielding to a drop.
It’s always dangerous to be short ahead of any kind of Fed event. We have maybe one more week for the market to correct. After that the PPT will get busy pumping the market back up ahead of the Jackson Hole event.
If it doesn’t correct then we’re going to get a stretched cycle that won’t bottom until September but still with plenty of time to again pump the market up ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Thanks! Well aware. Still green. Bought the day we hit the all time low. Going to evaluate in the morning to see where to set my stop. I am traveling so very inconvenient. Should have sold last week on the 12% up day. Thought there would be more. No luck.
What’s up with oil?
They call it black gold, My ASS is sore from the kicking the last three days, Come on guys start driving more. Gush did a major reversal??Why? Oil only dropped a buck and GUSh went down 20% Plus. something wrong with this picture!
Evening All:
Well all the marbles of this online game is going to be decided tomorrow, Mabel marker has 10.05 on hgd as the last saving hope for bulls, once it breaks 10,05 real markers at 11.37, 25. 83. Does this not remind you of the great Sinclair fallen angles. hmm I guess he could not read his markers very well. but he did make alot of money from those fallen angles.
Shorten Sally
Good morning, we are at candle 20up today, a big move up is in the cards just look at the last two cycles of 21candles up, if again history repeats … what will follow? 34days down for Gold or a shift of gear going backwards again in the Fib sequence 34-21-13-8, last one was 21days down so 13days down seems plausible? Maybe a gap up breakout, but it’s still ZzzZZzzzummer Doldrums!
I would say the first stop for gold by next Monday will take us to around 1255 plus or minus before the first minor relief rally kicks in on the coming decline. Just speculating on the near future of course but somewhere in that region looks likely to me. I really don’t think that gold is going to be mounting a breakout of its bear channel anytime soon so odds favour this decline taking gold all the way back below 1200 dollars on this cycle.
Looking at the markets I would say a bad jobsreport is coming out today, followed by a risk off trade.
The dollar is between 50% and 62.8% Fib retracement levels, still room for a decline. on the other hand it’s at a yearly resistance. Tough call here thats for sure.
However if you do not have the skills, wisdom and knowledge by yourself, team up with a person who has these qualities. I did just that a couple of years ago and he says that we will get a high in 2017. I trust his calls, thats why I am 80% long miners at the moment, maybe I will put in a DUST hedge … lets wait and see.
Many miners on my watchlist is at, or very close to 52week lows … that makes me suspicious of the move coming after ZzzzZzzummer doldrums.
JPY / USD is on the cusp of a downturn and when that happens gold will fall with the Yen. The potential is for a fairly sharp decline based on the look of the monthly chart. Currently trading 91.01, it will have to break out to the upside next week or we can kiss this current gold run goodbye. At this time the stars are lined up for a fall in Yen, euro, gold and silver with a rise in USD coming soon which will ice the cake. Sorry bulls, but it looks like you will have to wait until later in the year to catch your run upwards.
But it is not guaranteed so I would not hold your breathe.
JPY / USD chart has reached its top and looks primed to turn down early in the next week. So stay on guard as this is not going to be friendly for gold if that fall happens.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=6J
WOW….that was fast. I was expecting a reversal to take place but I didn’t see it coming this fast.
Loooook out beloooooow!
There is clearly something wrong with the dollar and it’s not the USA who is behind it. I think it’s foreign countries that are reluctant to accept the dollar at the moment. No panic yet though …
Copper is almost done. It was a great rise while it lasted these past months but above 3.00 is in serious doubt and I expect it to fall back significantly once we get in that region. Could happen this month that it finally hits top. Looks to me like we are setting up for a bleak time in the metals market and a renewed deflationary price trend to get underway in the fall.
Jes just a pitty when I said it was in bull at bottom June breaking channel, you saw it as bear with your technical annalisys.
I think what all this adds up to is that we will see rate hikes in Septembers Fed meeting or the real threat of an added hike at the December meeting. Bonds look set to turn down with Yen and gold so that can be the only reason I can see. Trouble is coming.
GET OUT OF GOLD.
With the relentless downward travel USD has taken; there is really nothing to show for it in gold price or in gold mining shares. If there is ever a reversal takes place, I do not expect same reaction from gold.
Agree with that Ed. The future is already written on the charts as far as I can tell. This ridiculous idea that the dollar will just keep falling after such a long decline already makes no sense. So far the fall has not even altered the bullish set up according to a monthly level view and I have no good reason to see why anything has materially changed. When the dollar reverses its going to murder commodities of all kinds but it should be particularly painful for precious metals, copper and crude which will all feel the bite. Who knows, the seasonal strong period for gold might even be cancelled this year due to how the timing is playing out.
Considering the following information some comments forreseen then the influence further in the currency market over the next years.
Here are key information for those considering events with why currency are running wild now before 2018. GLOBAL CURRENCY RESET BEGINS. Here is a video that explain what is happening in the currency market and why the dollar is going to dump as the ADR (new currency international currency is being implemented) . How commodities are going to play the key role as currency basis, including gold and how debt has to be honored and one of the reasons of the Gold price suppression.. West and east compare with IMF and BRICKS role how debt going to be zero out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M7QMMqyEl_I&t=0s (quite long video explaining what has happened and in progress)
Sorry, Considering the following information some comments would be great of the foreseen influence further in the currency market over the next years. We will we see why a collapse would be seen in the $
Current USD decline is not corresponding a proportional rise in gold. It may have to do with real interest rate still high enough to garner safe return of capital where gold has no interest income.
I am just throwing out any ideas it comes into my head. I just can” t understand anymore why gold does what it does. USDJPY is down significantly but no reaction in gold. What the heck is going on ?
Morning All; Don’t know why everyone is trying to search for a reason why something happens, it is after the fact thinking, Ratio;s overbought , morghing triangles, fbo, Sorry to tell you it is not going to work, cause this time it will be something that has not happened before. If hgd breaks 10 05 fasten your seatbelts cause the USd is about to rip the face off every thing.
Shorten Sally
Thanks ARends,
I haven;t watch the whole tape, but there was something I haven’t given a thought lately in conjunction with USD and Gold. That is demand for USD. Now that may explain why USD is marching toward oblivion.
Jim Willie at http://goldenjackass,com has been saying this for a long time.
One person I respect most in his opinion is Peter Schiff. In his last podcast, he says something about Americans, that is US Congress, more specifically Deep State , are biting hands that feed them. That is we are actually expediting the demise of USD world reserve currency status.
Prime examples,
Putting economic sanctions on Russia,
Starting trade wars with every exporting countries of the world.
A pure Economics 101, Demand and Supply.
ARends woke me up this morning.
While supply of USD is increasing Demand for USD decreasing.
The outcome is the obvious. Price (in this case, Value) of USD gets lower,
Gold is under the rounding top that Christian showed… until that is broken, consider another trek down to 1197 based on latest charting…that should be the ICL… dollar would have put in a dead cat bounce before a more aggressive dive down…
That goes same with stock markets.
The supply side of stock market, the number of stock shares is staying same or decrease due to stock buybacks, the demand side of stock markets get steroids due to printing presses. So BTFD works.
But price will ultimately seek and find equilibrium, and that is the real price. And the real price is not nominated in US Dollar term.
US Dollar a dead cat bounce may come soon, but prospect of gold is EXCELLENT!
BTFD, Goldbugs.
How quickly my sentiment changes, that just amazes myself too.
Intermediate degree sentiment for the dollar is at 28% bulls. During the recognition phase of the last bear market sentiment dropped to 10% bulls before price bounced.
So to say that the dollar has to bounce because sentiment is too bearish is false. We aren’t at extreme bearish levels yet. During bear markets sentiment has to get a lot more depressed before price rebounds.
We could get a bounce out of a minor daily cycle low today but it could roll over into another left translated cycle.
The bounce so far has been very weak this morning. If the dollar can’t get going then we’re going to see a stop run below the 2016 low next week. That would probably give gold one more push higher to test the June high before the daily cycle tops.
Now we just have to wait and see how the dollar closes the day.
Agree with you that dollar could break the 2016 low…that would be good for some more whipsaw action…
Interesting watching the board, as the usd rally’s the bulls increase their number of posts, bringing out everyone in their uncle to back up their belief, jim willie, peter shiff, why not bring the biggest con Sinclair along. Belief in gold will bankrupt you,
MS
Gold is putting in a bull flag into a half cycle low. This daily cycle isn’t done yet. Heck it hasn’t even moved below the 10 DMA yet.
Morning all –
The gold weakness I was expecting is resolving nicely to the downside this morning and the slope I posted here last night is working beautifully:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/04/gold-240-update-we-saw-this-move-coming/
Rejected hard from the upper parallel…
yep, this sucks for longs.
The Fed will be reducing their balance sheet it September. That’s all the yen needs to get absolutely destroyed here.
GDX is headed to Gary’s original 17 target, ironically. Heck I wouldn’t be surprised if GDX retests its low.
Nope, gold is just dipping down into a half cycle low. I’m watching short term sentiment levels. We need another day or two to completely recharge for the next push up into the daily cycle top.
The market is doing exactly as I said it would. It will knock everyone off and then out of the blue we’ll get another push higher. The bulls will miss it and the bears will get caught in it.
Heck GDX hasn’t even back tested the yearly cycle trend line breakout yet.
Gary I have noticed that your posts increase when you start to get worried about your gold positions ๐ You present great confidence in your posts, and you may be 100% correct. I think 1250ish will be a big test if we get there – so that may be a good spot for your HCL if the dollar is not interested in a rally.
I warned everyone this is how it would play out. It’s why I keep stressing to subs no more than 20% in the metals portfolio. It’s just not going to be easy to make money in metal trade right now. It’s going to whipsaw back and forth triggering stops for both bulls and bears.
I’ve done everything but beat people over the head to get them to stick with the stock market trades. That’s where the easy money is at. That’s where traders have PPT protection.
What? I thought you were holding long positions in gold and the miner ETF’s? You were talking pretty confident bullish talk on metals just the last few days. So did you sell out and put it all on US equity trades instead?
I’ve been beating the drum for stocks for months and months. It’s where the easy money is, It’s where traders have PPT protection.
Personally I won’t put any of my own money in either metals or energy trades right now. It’s just too hard to make money in whipsawing markets. But if traders insist on trading the sector I’ve warned them to keep positions small, and focus most of their capital in the stock market.
I’m gonna have to side with Ped on this one which in itself is a rare occurrence..
Gary is always beating on the day traders but doesn’t have the balls to hold steadfast through a HCL. He trades in and out of Metals faster than it takes for my gramma to bake cookies ๐
Thanks Christian
So Gary, all that big talk about gold these past few days was just a bunch of empty words because you had no skin in the game the whole damned time. The truth is you never had a clue this was coming which is why you could not trade an OBVIOUS turning point at channel resistance. And yet you keep berating everyone about that being where the most money is made.
Sheesh!
We’re quickly running out of time for the stock market to correct. We’re starting to get too close to the Jackson Hole meeting.
At this point I think the S&P probably gives us the final push to 2500 ahead of Jackson Hole and then drops down into a DCL (ICL?) in early September before again being rescued ahead of the September FOMC meeting.
Oh my, this doesn’t look good ๐
You are telling me. JNUG off a dollar not long after the open, NUGT down almost 6% with Silver diving 22 cents and gold half way to my first target of 1255 already. Yeah, the market is speaking. We will see if there is enough strength to buy it back up soon enough or if this just keeps going into next week.
PM stocks are behaving like dying again. Some juniors are back to lows. Eg. AG. Its usually not a good idea to hold PM and its stocks into NFP.
Closed my Nugt for a 1K loss. Loaded on AG which is on sale for the long term.
You got off easy. There was someone on this site yesterday saying he had 10,000 shares with an average cost of 17.84 who has lost almost 12,000 dollars in the first half hour of the day. I tried to warn him but bulls rarely ever listen. Especially when they commit like that.I expect he will hold on waiting for a bounce.
That’s how your account gets wiped out.
GDX already on support…that’s it for today looks like…
Yep the dream is squashed again, 10.05 hgd done, 29.50 on dust being held right now. Follow the markers and keep you pipe dreams out of the picture.
Shorten Sally
The dollar is whistling dixie again and is pleasantly ripping the face off of shorts and goldbugs.
Morning Nada: Yes the usd is right at 93.60 now , could see them holding it a little but doubt it,
MS
Boom Boom! As mentioned couple of days ago, gold could revisit 1240ish. Let’s see if GDXJ can close below 32.50ish. Thinking lower BB test on daily is coming
Closed gold futures short at 1261.8; opened at 1274.4:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/04/trade-closed-28-return-on-risk/
Slope to the downside is very live….
You’re welcome BigDaddy for telling you not to buy Silver when it was trading around 16.65 ๐
You can send the money you woulda lost over to my account in the Cayman Islands, thx.
JNUG could drop down to 13 if the dollar keeps rising…
The big spike in silver on the first was his warning sign flashing.
Dollar is quickly approaching resistance here on my charts:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/04/dollar-fast-approaching-proven-resistance/
One of the reasons I closed my gold short where I did…
Thanks for charts Ex. I like your blog.
And there goes gold. Where is that Donkey Con to congratulate me for making another perfect call on gold and silver. Nowhere to be found I am sure since he’s holding a lot of positions that are no doubt going deep in the red already if GDX is any indication. And that’s how pride takes you down in this market. Instead of arguing with people online just because you don’t like the way they write its maybe more sensible to pay attention to what they are talking about.
Don must be the WORST trader on this site.
Ped: What positions am I holding that makes me the worst trader? BTW, have you changed your mind yet on platinum? It is bucking the declining trend and is up strongly. Have you learned how to read charts yet? It was on July 26 that I said that I liked the look of the platinum chart and with your know nothing big mouth came this:
Pedestrian
July 26, 2017 at 9:44 am
How about platinum on an hourly chart? Is that an โuptrendโ?
Looks like a dome to me and its rolling over.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=PL&p=h1
โโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโโ
Oh wait, maybe you meant on the weekly chart.
Sorry, not here either. Fact is platinum is in decline on every major chart. You need less booze.
I have no idea what you are holding but it was you who said you were still long miners so we will just take your word for it unless now you are pretending you don’t hold anything! Too funny man. That’s even better than claiming you sold before the fall. LMAO!!!!
PS: I told you I nailed the top in gold and silver. Now its confirmed. K
You will also have to enter the challenge and make real time trade including percentages for anyone to believe your calls.
We’ve all had enough of this chest beating. Now we’re going to require real time trades and one or two good trades is meaningless. this will run for a year. At the end of a year we’ll see if any of you really make and more importantly keep any money.
So far the leader is blowing the doors off all of you and he never brags about his trades.
Jesus Christ you are inconsistent Gary. You already stated repeatedly you won’t accept day trades so stop shoving that crap in my face. All you need to do is read my posts if you are curious what I am buying and selling. They call the trades in advance as you well know and I almost always explain in detail why I am taking them.
You just can’t lose in Stock markets while Fed is in control.
Rising water level raise everything that float above.
Only exception is Gold. That’s very unnatural. But hey, who says every stepchild are same. We have rainbow stepchildren including red one too.:)
One thing I can say sure for now is that whatever portfolio you have, it will go up and down, sometime big ones, and you play accordingly. However, back of your brain somewhere in your head, you should not erase the big picture. The trend should be your friend.
The trend I am thinking now will develop more pronounced in due time, That is USD is going down very hard. You should plan accordingly.
Dow futures are also rejecting from a fresh ceiling on my 4 hr – confirming my belief that more weakness should be expected in the indices across the board…
Also noting Nasdaq futures are lagging here too which is another sign of indices’ weakness as a whole…
So Ex Nihlo: Making some good calls as are several other people on this site, are you in the on line bingo contest?
Shortin Sally
This has been a long time in the making. European indices are leading and have already fallen 5 to 7 percent since June. US market weakness was predictable since most of these markets trade more or less together.
http://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=DY
Hello Ped, when Gary & everyone else kept saying that the USD will just continue down forever thats when you take the opposite side. Good call, the USD was near the 2016 low. I cant believe Gary was saying it would just continue falling. Miners should drop some more from here, maybe gold stops falling at 1240?
You need to listen to the video again.
What I think may happen is that we get a brief bounce out of a daily cycle low that again rolls over into another left translated cycle and just keeps dropping.
Oh baloney man! I’m the one that kept saying that the dollar would bounce and you kept saying that it could just continue to drop.
There was never any mention of a bounce out of a daily cycle low when you first posted those charts a few days ago. I was even gonna bet you a burrito but you didn’t have the cojones to take it ๐
Platinum Group Metal traded at $12 per share, three years ago, now at 78c in Loonie.
Time to buy or will it drop further?
78c that is just insane …
Steff, you mentioned buying DUST as a hedge. How does that make sense or were you kidding?
against my long miners position, it makes sense ๐ dust is up +5% today!
I’ve got 20% of dry powder to play with.
If you are still holding JNUG a better strategy would be to either sell some JNUG, whatever is equivalent to what you are planning for DUST. Buying both does not ever make sense. They just cancel eachother out and you just lose the trading fee.
If you want to hedge miners better to use options. I do enjoy your posts though and also like reading them on TFmetals site.
Hell no the JNUG is swapped for DUST it’s insane to own both.
Tx RetireYoung, I am almost economical independent already. No need for 3x ETF’s at all, they are just for fun, small bets.
At the IT Boom Bust my portfolio was up +720% 4th of March 2000. I will try to break that record with my miners in 3-5years time. That is my main goal ๐
Hey, then why look long-term.
If you are successful in short-term consistently, that eventually lead to long-term success.
So concentrate today. And accept gold bulls got ass whipped today.
I put credibility of BLS Job Report to level of handle flipping between Mustang Sally and Pedestrian.
That only gives me a window from where I can see what FOMC is trying to hide.
Anyone else notice ADX in GDXJ recently? I know the low volume was noticed. The gold weekness at around 1270 was the indicator for the drop. Now does GDXJ and gold test lower BB on daily?
If this is the ICL, then the HCL may be printing. I dunno, it is tough to tell. Both scenarios should be considered.
All of my momentum indicators are suggesting more downside in precious metals.
And I’ve been beating everyone over the head for weeks now (including Gary) with this: Let’s see how strongly Gold reacts when the dollar finally finds a bottom and bounces out of its YCL. That should tell you whether the ICL in Gold is behind us or in front of us — easy.
Christian, thanks for the charts you’ve been posting. The rounded top is a good one
Here’s what’s going to happen. The dollar will rally for 4-8 days. Gold will drop down into a HCL and then the dollar will roll over and get busy breaking the 2016 low sending gold back up to test the June high before the daily cycle tops.
So I doubt we have completed the HCL today. It probably won’t be finished until next week.
But this is going to be a very choppy market. Very hard to make money in.
Watch the short term sentiment levels next week for the next buying opportunity in metals.
So much easier to make money in the stock market.
The PPT isn’t going to let any correction get too far and the closer we get to Jackson Hole the less downside risk.
I agree Gary. I have made good money in the metals sector this year, but it is a pain in the ass trade long or short. The whipsaw grinds your emotions up. That’s one thing about the PM action, they will make a man out of you.
A nice strategy is to do something positive when in draw down. Like eat donuts. When you are in the red, while
all along eating donuts, your body will start to associate a positive feeling with DD. It will toughen you up. But probably best to keep it small and avoid the sector and enjoy the SM trades.
USD is not going to rally against yen anytime soon. At this point you would need the BoJ tightening–never going to happen.
This pattern has been in place since 2012. Why on earth would they stop it?
Lower commodities are one of the only things driving real productivity and growth. They are not going to kill the golden goose.
Dollar right on cue:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/04/dollar-right-on-cue/
By printing bogus strong BLS Job report today, FOMC is worried that now everyone is thinking rate hike is off the table and balance sheet tightening is not coming.
Of course we are NOT going to have rate hike or balance sheet tightening. But Fed had to install that uncertainty of rate hike and balance sheet tightening to investing public to make their bluffs work.
You are delusional man. Yellen has explicitly stated it is their intention to reduce the balance sheet in September. They will never backtrack from that.
I was in the camp that they could never end QE, never raise interest rates and never reduce their balance sheet. It’s two strikes and it’s about to be strike three.
The yen carry is going to drive a sustained move up in the US stock market. Just buy ever dip you can.
If you can’t articulate a bull case for yen, you have absolutely no business being long metals, miners or any other commodity (except for a day or swing trade).
The monthly chart for $usdjpy looks like a new bull market to me, with the 50 MMA having positively crossed the 200 MMA. This is almost the mirror opposite of the GDX monthly chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p67790234384&a=537977526&listNum=1
Sure, at some point gold and commodities will break their directional correlation with yen, but that day hasn’t come.
The Fed will be shrinking its balance sheet in September. That is not a tailwind for the metals or commodities. The BoJ would have to start tightening faster than the Fed for the metals to have any prayer longer term.
I don’t think we are going to have parabolic bubble phase of stock markets as long as Fed is still in control.
Actually, we’ve already started — wake up and smell the FED roses!
If the Dollar closes above the 10DMA then Gary’s “Long Gold” scenario is in for a real beating ๐
The dollar has to close above the 10 to confirm a DCL.
What I’m telling you is that the DC is going to be left translated again and gold won’t go below the July low. It will just drop into a HCL as the dollar has a dead cat bounce.
See my response above ๐
“What Iโm telling you is that the DC is going to be left translated again and gold wonโt go below the July low. It will just drop into a HCL as the dollar has a dead cat bounce.”
What the heck, I’ll make a burrito bet the dollar rolls over into another left translated daily cycle.
Nice try! The bet was that the dollar would find a bottom and bounce when you were saying that it would/could just continue to fall. Don’t twist things around mister.
Nonsense. Of course the dollar will have minor DCL’s. the last one rallied for 3 days before topping.
What I’m clearly saying is that something is wrong. The dollar should have printed an ICL months ago.
I’m willing to bet this daily cycle will also top in a left translated pattern and the ICL will continue.
Just enter the challenge and give me your trades.
https://invst.ly/4pt9j
I don’t see anything about USDJPY bullish picture here, or bearish for that matter.
It just show extreme tightening spread.
What did I missed?
Pull up a monthly $usdjpy chart. It looks like it is gearing up for another leg higher. Monthly stochastics are over 50 and will likely reach over bought levels in a few months.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p67790234384&a=537977526&listNum=1
Gold 4hr:
Does not get more precise that this:
https://exnihilosplace.wordpress.com/2017/08/04/gold-does-not-get-more-precise-that-this/
Ex, I don’t see any chart at your link?
IMHO. Fed is not in as much control as we think of in the markets. They can manipulate short term results but can’t control the overall long term trend. I am with Gary that the stock market will continue to go up , maybe even do a double from here but we need a correction first before the Parabolic Phase Transition Blow Off Top. I’m also with Martin Armstrong that its international money flows that control this market and currencies and that long term the US dollar and Stocks will take in all of the flows as Europe, Japan and the rest of the world continue to disintegrate.
That said, we’ll see how today and next week play out for Gold and Miners. If GDX closes below the 50/200 and even the low of the surge of last Wed – 22.13 on the daily chart, we’re in for an epic fall in the next little while.
I’m a shorty and holding DUST.
Well we had the big pullback into the 7 YCL back in early 2016.
We should have some kind of correction but betting on them ahead of Federal reserve events has been a losing trade for years.
The banks are trying to break out above 98. That’s a good sign for stocks.
I’m not in Stocks but will consider shorting based on what I read on the charts. When day it might be is not a concern and if its after Jackson Hole great. If I miss the short then great, that means I can jump on the Blow Off Top. If I miss any trade that I’m not 100% convinced on, that’s ok too because there is always another trade around the corner.
I don’t see anything precise about that chart. I am not a day trader. Each of my trade takes at least 3 days wait time.
Well, you can’t say I didn’t warn you guys. I got out of a 100% position on USLV on Wednesday @ 12.13 and went long 100% UUP. Gary, for 500.00 I will trade you magic 8 balls……ha….ha.
Huh sorry but you still have a 100% long position in USLV in the challenge.
This is exactly the kind of crap that just doesn’t fly here anymore. We don’t accept after the fact trades.
If you want me to close that USLV trade you will need to email me a close order and receive a confirmation back.
Correction, I got out of the USLV @ 12.13 on july 31st as Gary can verify
I will not verify that. You have sent me no exit order.
You also sent me no entry order for UUP so that trade never happened either.
Actually it would be impossible to have bought UUP as you have a 100% position in USLV.
Thanks Gary, we need to get out these after the fact traders, if you don;t send an email it never happened.
Ms
July 31st was a Monday, not a Wednesday and Gary is saying you didn’t report the trade. So you are making a 20/20 hindsight trade with the benefit of todays information. I agree with him on calling BS on your position. You are down 11% since your claimed sell date.
Anyway, I was not around when this contest started. Maybe I don’t get the idea. Isn’t this supposed to be about who is the best metals trader or was a free for all where any trades were allowed?
No, I decided to play the 3yr cycle bounce but I think I just got screwed because I sent the trades to Gary’s old email @ cox.net. Hopefully he still has access to that account.
@desertsun999 I could have sworn you were bullish PMs a day or so ago? Maybe I am getting you confused with someone else. Not directed at you, but I am seeing a lot of wanna be bears come in this morning and saying they have been bearish all along while gold moved higher.. Gary knows who was bearish and who was bullish (yes sort of like Santa).
One more comment, Jim Rickards, has stated a few months ago that the Fed needed to try and raise rates and reduce balance sheet because they see another recession coming but have no bullets left with where the interest rates are currently. So the plan was to try and raise rates so that they can reduce again later and see if they can have any affect on matters. He also stated that Fed is behind the curve and the news will be crap long before they can execute the plan fully, and so I suspect that there is a good chance that they flip flop in Sept and they ease like crazy and shoot their last and tiny bullet. Perhaps it will be then that we can ride the ICL up on the PM’s and MIners.
There is no recession coming. US is sucking up all foreign capital at this point. As long as the US is tighter than ECB and BoJ, you have a golden era for US markets. That trend looks set to continue for a long, long time.
Sure, we could get a 3-5% correction in the US markets off of all time highs, but there is no bear market coming for a long time. I suspect when the Dow hits 23000, it will back off 3-5% or alternatively go sideways for a long while as momentum indicators cool off.
Seems like everyone here is super bearish this morning. Fools. The news is out and will be forgotten by lunch. This is a great day to be adding more silver. I bought another 1000 SLV 15.38 this morning . I don’t know about the miners though as they could get a little cheaper yet.
I’d wait a few more day for the 5 day RSI to get oversold on gold and for short term sentiment to reach bearish levels.
The dollar will probably bounce for at least 4-8 days.
You are insane. The silver monthly chart is pointing to at a minimum a red candle this month. If it manages to break through the 200 month MA, silver is definitely headed for single digits.
$gold:$silver ratio is in a bull market.
GDXJ is about ready to waterfall lower.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09285325038&a=537983043&listNum=1
Anyone holding a short metals or miners position from yesterday has a golden ticket as far as I am concerned. You have one hell of a secure position IMO and the very strong possibility of a waterfall at some point.
GDX is for sure going to make a close below 21.80 soon. That’s the level of the black candle from the 14th.
How many times do goldbugs have to get kicked in the teeth to think an FOMC meeting will ever lead to sustainable low? It never has and never will.
You are an idiot to ever go long based on an FOMC meeting–i.e. going long after the fact. It will never ever be that easy.
Gary, I accidently sent both of those emails to your cox.net email. Is there any way that you still have access to that email account? Otherwise I just got screwed on my trades.
That email hasn’t been active for a couple of months. You sent your original buy order to the correct email.
Do you want me to exit USLV today or not? You need to email me an exit order.
I guess that beautiful round bottom in DUST I posted yesterday was bang on!
Let me fluff the feathers a little ๐
That was a great call. You are in the catbird seat.
Enter the challenge and give me real time trades.
At the end of the year we’ll see if you make money.
Christian: You said yesterday that you were “tempted” to nibble on DUST because of it’s rounded bottom. That not quite the same commitment as “I bought DUST @ ______. Why did you not buy?
Because I slept in, Lol!
I might pick up some shares later today on a pullback (if we get one) but for now I’m still on the sidelines.
Ok. I appreciate your honesty. You have never been one of those “after the fact’ bull-shitters that we see all to often here.
Hey Don, how come YOU are not saying you bought XYZ at __$s instead of bothering other people all the time. I know why you are not in this little contest btw.
Because you would be found out.
Actually Ped, I havn’t been doing a lot of trading lately. When I do, I always state my trade. I am short the stock market and have been holding Canadian oils for some time. My PM exposure is minimal and I am not concerned about today’s sell off in gold.
Some people have said they like my commentary and some don’t. I don’t care what you think and consider you to be a phoney and a pretender.
Euro lost the 200wma with conviction. This is going to get interesting.
https://i.imgur.com/PeWRhAT.png
Copy of most recent buy;
100% UUP @ 24.09
๎
๎
craig meinke
To
Gary Savage
Aug 3 at 8:36 AM
๎Reply ๎Reply to All ๎Forward ๎More
๎
Dear Bulls, if we close below last Wednesday, that crappy bull flag that was forming since then has failed and we are in for much lower prices. IMHO go short or wait for a better buying opportunity.
I have my money where my mouth is. 4000 shares in DUST.
I’m with Gary . The dollar rally will fade . Gold is not in a bear market .
Who said Gold was in a bear Market? Gold bottomed in December 2015, period.
If gold is in a bull market, I don’t think it’s safe to be betting on the downside, hoping to pick up a few percentage points if you get it right. Far better to be buying on weakness and wait for the surprise upside. I am a buy and hold guy who rarely day trades.
Gary, do you still have access to your cox.net emails?
That email hasnโt been active for a couple of months. You sent your original buy order to the correct email.
Do you want me to exit USLV today or not? You need to email me an exit order. Until you exit you can’t buy UUP as you are still 100% invested.
I always respect Gary’s views, but I maintain that the gold ICL is ahead of us. I called it when it was the most unpopular contrarian view imaginable, and I’m calling it again. An ICL where everyone and their dog starts to doubt if we’re even in a PM bull market.
Not sure I agree with that but we shall see. The Greenback is a political bulldog and has had the most influence on Gold — all eyes on the dollar.
If $gold takes out last months low, you are going to get 99% of goldbulls throwing in the towel, guaranteed.
God only knows where GDX will be at that point. If/when GDX loses its 200 WMA, its going to get ugly.
Morning . Well 29.50 dust the mother marker is now acting as support, not a good sign for gold bulls if it holds, sorry Gary.
Shortin Sally
When I go to send your emails both email names come up. For some reason I clicked on the cox.net the last two trades. The funny thing is that I did not get a failure on the sent emails. I could forward you copy’s of both trades that were sent.
I’ll be looking for a partial (not complete) bounce back in both gold and silver early next week before a continuation of this decline carries us lower. There is going to be another chance to engage this corrective drop for anyone who missed the first shot across the bow. Bulls should be careful thinking all-is-well when metals pop back up again. They are anything but as the next trending direction is going to be South for the foreseeable future. Metals are headed for the sick ward. A rising dollar is going to smash their teeth out.
I just got screwed. I had exited USLV @ 12.13 and bought UUP @ 24.09. My account should be sitting @ 19% return right now.
Lots of genius traders here this morning stroking one another, making stupid statements over a news related sell off that will not last. Buy silver while it’s on sale folks. i am.
I’m still waiting for my thank you ๐ Don’t be a sour puss!
BD, you don’t think it would be wise to wait a few days as Gary is saying? Just asking.
Problem is, the whole rally was sparked by a bogus news related story–the FOMC meeting.
Gold bears will be salivating over the thought of taking out the July low. It might take some time to break through $1250, but once it does, the wind will be at their backs.
There is no fundamental driver for gold as long as currency flows are towards US dollar, especially when its away from yen and into USD. Yeah, that correlation will break someday, but its has held up 20 years.
I don’t know Spanky. I have to disagree that this decline today was driven by a news event. After all I have spent the last few days outlining the decline we are now having as it was pretty plain on all the charts I use. Everything from Yen, dollar, euro, CAD, bonds, gold, silver and gold were prepping for important reversals. Those were evident in many technical indicators but more importantly for me were obvious from the visual look of the charts, channels and the like. I thought it was an easy read but I am past the days of trying to convince anybody else since its such a waste of my time and the only reward offered are snide comments from the likes of the Donkey. Anyway, sounds like you are turning bearish. Some of your charts sure look damning for metals and I am in agrreement.
Nice work MS. You have been very consistent with your calls.
For all the bullshit bragging about seeing this ahead of time. Not one single trader took a big short position yesterday in the metals.
So in reality no one saw anything coming. If they had they would have placed a big short trade yesterday.
We have a camp of perma bears that will always see the negative side and always be looking to be short. The bears just took a big drawdown on the run up.
We also have a camp of perma bulls that will only see the positive side and will always be long. The bulls will now probably take a drawdown until the HCL is complete.
The reality is that the metals are still stuck in a basing pattern and neither side is going to make any money until price starts to trend.
I believe Mustang Sally was 100% in JDST?
No, he is not saying folks were not short. He is saying that no one went short yesterday in front of NFP. I have been in DUST for weeks, but I entered way too early as I thought the cycle would have topped much sooner. I am not 100% sure if we did not have the ICL at 1204. Gary could be correct and this is a HCL. I “think” the ICL is in front of us, but I am not going to take the possibility off the table, that is already occurred.
My positions for contest:
30% 30.44
30% 29.56
40% 27.22
OK, got it.
I actually predicted this, but I was holding onto my longs out of sheer hope. I mentioned over and over again the GDXJ:GLD ratio and how bearish it has been when the bollinger bands have gotten this tight over the last 10 years (basically you got a waterfall decline in miners every single time).
Again, maybe “this time is different.” and the miners miraculously change course. But you have absolutely no fundamental basis to say so–none.
Gary
Post author
August 3, 2017 at 5:40 am
Possible half cycle low in gold last night.
So far things are playing out exactly as predicted.
Now Iโm waiting for the big surge in miners that will come out of the blue, catch the bears on the wrong side of the market, and catch most bulls on the sidelines.
Reply โ
“Possible”
I was too early. I was expecting the dollar to continue down to test the 2016 low on the jobs number. It looks like it’s going to take another daily cycle.
Exactly! Thank you for posting this little blurb from mister know it all, Lol!
I F*ckin love yah Gary but I’m gonna go ahead and bust those big beautiful balls of yours ๐
My god, you just mentally scared me for life.
Sorry.. I’m only kidding of course!
You are going to have to enter the challenge and make real time trades to do that. Otherwise it’s all just meaningless.
We have no way of knowing whether you actually make money over time or not. Did you stop out of shorts during the drawdown or not? Did you make any money off the rally or not? There’s just no answer to those questions unless you actually make real trades. And of course one month is meaningless. You can win big one month and then give it all back the next. You still have 11 months left in the challenge. Prove to us that you can make and keep money over an extended period of time.
As of right now you clearly aren’t willing to actually put your “balls” on the line. When you are let me know and I’ll set you up with your page in the challenge spreadsheet.
Gary — I post all of my trades in real time on this blog but still have no interest in the challenge. Yes, I like to fluff the feathers once in a while because it’s kinda funny but I don’t actually feel the need to prove anything to anyone, that’s why I’m not partaking. I don’t know why that’s so hard for you to comprehend.
That was kind of personal. You guys know each other?
Get the heck out of here man!
I posted a chart yesterday asking if anyone had the balls to buy the breakout out of a rounded bottom in DUST. I saw it coming with eyes wide open! Thank you technical analysis ๐
So Gary, you are saying that NOBODY in the contest reported a bear trade purchase yesterday or the day before? Nobody went short? Wow. That’s kind of shocking. The set up was picture perfect if only for a short term trade and we talked it through in detail all week. But like the old saying goes:
You can lead horses to water. You can’t make them drink it though.
Some people were already holding shorts. Most entered too early and where weathering drawdowns.
But no one entered a big short yesterday because they knew how today would play out.
Fascinating. Thanks for saying so. I suppose I should have expected that really. What it tells me is that a lot of people on this board who are talking up technicals are just paying the idea lip service but not doing their homework and actually using them. They certainly cannot be trading technically because this is one case where the outcome was very, very obvious and easy to read. A novice should have spotted the channel resistance or been clued in by the rollover in so many of the major indicators like the CCI (as just one example). So maybe its true that most people just want an easy way to make money trading but don’t want to put in the effort to get their own answers. Plain laziness.
You will never run out of subscribers if that’s the case. These folks need a babysitter.
Excuse me? I made a large short position yesterday, and was telegraphing it earlier in the week that I planned an EOD Thursday short of miners.
Still sticking to the original scenario, bullish sentiment has to be cleansed thoroughly, before gold can make a monster rise to 1500/1550.
Give us a price target on the downside.
Original scenario of Gary, that is ๐ I thought it was very credible.
Lower triangle trend line to be tested, where is it now, around 1190?
I have my doubts about that scenario playing out. The rally has been too strong. Not at all like a weak rally that will eventually test the lower trend line.
It appears the silver miners are taking the lead in breaking the December lows. AG en EXK already have…
Where is BigDaddy and his gut feeling ๐ ?
Taking the dog out for a pee on his neighbour’s lawn of course.
Nope. Already took Mutt out (that’s actually his name…Mutt.. when the wife first got him , it was f__king Mutt but now i like him so it;s just Mutt )
And, my gut feeling didn’t apply to just today. Let’s see where everything sits in another week after the jobs report is forgotten. Silver should be back on track.
He has those little suppository pastilles to administer his constipated dog or something like that.
They are not suppositories, you turd. Just little pills I have to crush into his hamburger.
So, it’s the dog’s gut feeling.
Gary, I called Cox and they told me that closed accounts stay open for 3 to 4 months after they were initially closed. The Tech support guy told me that if you asked for the emails they could deliver them to you. My USLV sell @ 12.13 email was sent on JULY 31 and my UUP buy @ 24.09 email was sent AUG 3. Here is the phone number 1-402-933-3000. These are not after the fact trades and I am about the furthest thing from a bullshitter that you have on this blog. Why do think I posted this yesterday;
Gary, I couldnโt disagree with you more. This move is not any different previous dollar moves coming off an 8yr cycle. Your logic is really distorted when analyzing the dollar. We have major monthly resistance in the 93 to 92 range, We have large specโs turning bearish on the COT which I have been stating for months now is a prerequisite for the 3yr cycle low. What your doing is not analyzing markets in any way shape or form. You keep saying that you are not any good at currencies and yet you continue with these magic 8 ball predictions. WTF!!!
Now if you don’t want to honor these trades……cool…….I can live with that. But at least it shows that what I am telling you is for real.
Do you want me to close the USLV position or not?
You still have a profit in it if you close it today.
Ha…..ha. Yea, you need a gift if you were planning on beating me! Too much for you to dial that number huh?
I called Cox. If you had sent the email it would have come back to you as undeliverable. You also clearly would not have received a confirmation email back from me as the email never would have gone through.
Now I’ll ask again. Do you want to exit the USLV trade or not.
I’m simply not going to allow after the fact trades no matter how much bullshit you come up with.
Gary, talk to tech support and they will give you both emails from the account. I have a sent confirmation on both emails. Don’t give me your bullshit. If you cannot win in a straight up game then why would anybody pay you for your advice? Think about it………………………………………………………………………………………..
Ok, desertsun, you made a genius move like all the other winners here. I believe you. Honest.
out of gold shorts except put hedges, took small loss on dgld in challenge, 8/8 bottom cycle imo.
Gary: You are great at boasting when you are right but what do you do when others are right and you ar e dead wrong. you put crap out like this
Your quote:
For all the bullshit bragging about seeing this ahead of time. Not one single trader took a big short position yesterday in the metals.
So you think 100% jdst it not a big short postion, what about Nada also. Lets give credit when due.
Shortn Sally
Sally,
You are one of the perma bears. You let all your early profits evaporate during the latest rally.
So it remains to be seen whether you will actually be able to make any long term gains. When the metals are moving down you make money. When they move up you lose it.
For you to make any lasting gains you need gold to still be in a bear market. I think you are wrong about that so in the end I don’t think you will have any profits in the challenge by next July.
Gary, no need to argue with you, I will let the numbers speak for themselves, Short term traders get whipsawed, I lost some paper gains but I did not get panicked out because I knew 29.50 was key. as I entered the trade there,. So my gains will be back , as i said in previous post usd 93.60 dust 29.50 and hgd 10.05 , we are her now. Above these numbers gold bulls are in trouble. no magic just computer charting.
MS
The USD is in my timing band to find an Intermediate Cycle Low as the last ICL was about 6 months ago as I outlined in this post in late July.
https://surfcity.co/2017/07/27/usd-i…diate-cycle-4/
Surf City: You keep coming back here to push your crap , are you in the online bingo game, show us how good you are . If you are not in why not?
Gary should ban you if you are not.
MS
Surfer is a good guy Sal. He has been around for years but just recently started his own site using a similar technical method to Gary.
GDX is down 2% and I wish it was up 2% but I am not selling my GDX. Gold is down less than 1% so I don’t understand what the bears are all excited about.
Just curious, but what were the buy in points for Nada and Mustang Sally? It would be interesting to know how much they are up on their bearish positions.
GDXJ:GLD Every single time this ratio has broken down out of such a tight consolidation it has lead to a waterfall decline in the miners. Are you suggesting this time is different?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68591385453&a=538005619&listNum=1
I posted my position above on DUST entries. I went in too early and stated why above, but here are my positions.
Jul 18th 30% position at 30.44
Jul 21st 30% position at 29.56
Jul 26th 40% position at 27.22
Gary, no one saw this coming? I posted publicly real time and emailed you a week or 2 ago that i put 50% of my portfolio into JDST at 63 and change. You cant even give credit to people playing your game and making real time calls?
Hey All: Forget about Gary, let your numbers do the talking , you are short and you will get rewarded in the end, with the bingo results,
Sit back and watch them squirm.
Shortin Sally
Exactly. 11 months from now we’ll see how many of you actually made money.
Gary, I like nothing more than a challenge, I will book mark this comment and lets bring it out in 11 months,
Mustang Sally
Yes we have a long way to go still. Everyone will have winning trades and everyone will have losing trades. It simply boils down to whether one makes more money than they lose over time.
So all this chest beating today is a waste of effort. Save it. You still have 11 months to go.
If we are really serious about getting true employment picture, we should use IRS and their payroll tax data.
That will tell you exactly how many employed and how much they are making.
Instead of all these bullshit about seasonal adjustment, birth and death model.
Why do we allow BLS to print this book that really is a product of a lot assumptions and statistical models that often based hypothetical samplings.
I mean we have hard data from IRS. Every week or every two weeks, every month, every quarter, we should get real good picture of economy.
This whole BLS, Fed, Jackson Hole Meeting are waste of tax money.
We should start contacting our Congressman about getting rid of BLS. Its employment reports are so unreliable, I think better not having them.
Gary, I just sent you all the proof you need. I forwarded yesterdays sent confirmation and all you need to do is click on your name and it will show you that it was sent to your cox.net email address. I am tired of talking about this but when you start to question my honesty I am not going to back off.
No you didn’t. When I click on my name it shows me my current email address.
If you had sent the email it would have been returned undeliverable as the email address no longer exists. You couldn’t have received a reply from me confirming the trade. I always confirm trades when I record them.
Desertsun, why would you send emails to the right address and then send it to the wrong on another occasion? Sounds fishy. I am thinking now that you might be a fibber.
This is what you posted just a couple of days ago so enough with this magic perfect exit trade that never happened. You’ve been saying or weeks now that gold would rally along with the dollar.
“The Silver market may have lifted up her skirt a bit today. SIL had a monthly close above its resistance line today. We have tested that line for the last three months so todays close could be meaningful. If we test that trendline this month and bounce it could be a great buy in point. This may also be a leading indicator as to what the PMโs are going to do in relation to the dollar bounce. This is worth watching closely IMO.”
“I have also stated numerous times that the silver/dollar inverse relationship will not work at all during this bottom. Most here are in a state of disbeliefโฆโฆโฆ.the shake out process has done its job quite well.”
The sell off in the miners today is on below average volume at this point and while GDX will close the week near the lows of the week the weekly volume is well below average.
Hi Blue: So what does this mean for the price of gdx,
thank ms
Generally heavy volume or should I say way above average volume sell offs mean more downside so the fact that GDX and the others are not experiencing heavy volume bodes well for the Bulls. GDX is sitting a few pennies below the 50 day. Selling off below the 50 day is not a good thing and when it is accompanied by huge volume it is a sell signal but in this case it is just another sideways action week. GDX has been hanging out just above or just below the 50 day for months now. The 50 day and 200 day moving averages are only 16 cents apart. As I stated in an earlier post the last 3 up weeks for GDX came on lackluster volume so I didn’t really expect too much going forward. When volume kicks in on the up weeks then we can expect more upside.
Thanks for the explanation
MS
Opto might see a 100% retrace of its last run after the dust settles. Good job.
I would agree with that.
GLD for example came down and kissed the 50 day before backing off so it will need another try to break through before volume picks up. The programs did not trigger in other words and we do know that most of the trading is automated these days.
Personally I am expecting a bounce back from todays sell off but do not believe it will lead to a recovery.
Gary, don’t waste your energy on this crap, I know you send a confirmation so dust him off.
MS
So why are there so low volumes?
How long has it been like that?
Any idea?
Institutions account for 75-80% of all the market action and they are the ones driving the markets and stock prices – i.e. Smart Money. Low volume indicates a lack of interest. Also, when stocks are finding a bottom and you see low volume and the stock doesn’t really go much lower you are running out of sellers and that can set the stage for move up. For the move up to have legs you need to see above average volume. A big move up in price accompanied by above average volume is accumulation and then if the stock closes near the highs of the day/week that is confirmation the move may have legs. Big price sell offs accompanied by above average volume is known as distribution and generally the stock will close the day and week in the lower half of the weekly trading range if not near the lows of the week.
GDXJ hit upper BB has broken back under EMA 55 and is heading towards the lower BB which looks like will be near the new May to June lower trendline. I wonder if will pierce through to close gap at $30.32?
Does no one else think it is interesting that ADX has recently been the lowest it has ever been for GDXJ?
I was not super confident that this scenario was going to play out. In hindsight I should have been but I do have about 50% of my real account in JDST at around $62ish (average from several buys last week) and 25% of my Gary’s Bingo Contest account in JDST at $61.05 from July 28th.
Projects to GDXJ 27:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p09555901247&a=538015337&listNum=1
I keep thinking it’s liquidity.
My be all the money are going Stock Markets, Bonds, Bitcoins and DUST and Shorting ….
$indu:$gold is about to break out on every timeframe. The opportunity cost of being out of the SM has been absolutely devastating over the last 5 years.
Unless you bought gold pre-2006, the stock market has outperformed your gold.
I see, you guys are having a lot of fun.
I am in airports but could place a couple of iPhone trades. 1k jnug shares at $16.4 and another where I literally made $40 bucks to pay for lunch.
I will miss the action on Monday.
Have a nice weekend.
Somebody give me a bullish fundamental thesis for gold and why the last five years of action hasn’t disproven it entirely.
That one is easy. about 12 trillion in QE ๐
The same thing that has been driving the stock market higher or years.
The Fed added 3-4 trillion to its balance sheet since 2009. Commodities have gone to 50+ year lows since then (and headed lower).
There is ZERO indication that the mere quantity of currency has any correlation whatsoever with commodities. There is every indication OTOH that changing interest rate differentials/currency flows (especially between USD and yen) has everything to with commodity prices.
I agree with you 100%. Gold bulls are plain dumb asses. ๐
Gold Bull since 1999 – Present (Minus 2001- 2012).
I missed all good runs.
Big deals, man. I rather have my money get big than notoriety and fame.
PMs are simple. They are range bound. The trading range has not broken. It is relatively safe to buy/cover near range bottom and sell/short near range top. Fighting the whipsaw for a trend is where the headaches come from.
I like this guy..
There is absolute no reason to go long GDX until it can close the week above its 50 WMA. Until then, it is in serious danger of rolling over here massively.
Well usually a close above the 10 WMA has been a good signal to get long for an intermediate rally, but ever since the metals fell into the basing pattern it has produced more whipsaws than trends.
Just a little bounce in the dollar and all the hens in love with a bear go nuts. And the cock-y Gaylord Focker named Christine is licking Gary’s chocolate salty balls hahaha.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7jdsx4zMeB4
Have nice weekend folks, I hope no one got offended, I am just a political incorrect scurrilous middle aged white male, we are all out of fashion these days!
Jeeeez thx ๐
Sorry for my childish post Christian, karma hit me hard by the balls just 5 minutes later.
First Majestic Silver is down -17,5% as we speak holy sweet mother cheesus christ!!!!
I forked in 5% of my dry powder at 7.97 … these markets are brutal!
Are you color blind or just European?
Those were big red bars;)
no I’ve got big red balls!
The miners have been punished too much and are lagging gold too much now.
I am expecting to get automatic lunch money out of the 1k jnug shares.
If jnug keeps falling it would be a good opportunity to double and triple.
A good trendy move up could take place anytime.
The 3x funds can do amazing things.
Silver is absolutely toast. Even if gold doesn’t break the July low, it looks like it is in the bag for silver.
It is safe to short the crap out miners. You have a very well defined line in the sand.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p49863929176&a=538025267&listNum=1
Spanky. you wrote:
“How many times do goldbugs have to get kicked in the teeth to think an FOMC meeting will ever lead to sustainable low? It never has and never will.
You are an idiot to ever go long based on an FOMC meetingโi.e. going long after the fact. It will never ever be that easy.”
i see 3 rates in the last 10 years. Dec 2015, Dec 2016, March 2017
all three of those rate hikes were accompanied by a low in gold, at 1045, 1124 and 1194.
Gold did not trade below the low at the interest rate hike. its been over 1.5 years. Seems to me that at least so far, your statement that it “never has, never will” is incorrect. Which means you spent no time investigating your own biases. In fact go back over the last 15 years and see what happens to gold when FEd hikes rates. You might be surprised. But do not take my word for it, investigate it yourself.
Did the low in $gold come on the actual day of the FOMC in each of those instances?
you can look it up for yourself. but why does that matter?
your statement was ” You are an idiot to ever go long based on an FOMC meetingโi.e. going long after the fact. It will never ever be that easy.โ
so if you went long gold right after the last 3 fed hikes, the day of, you made money in the first 30 days..and the price never went lower. .so doesn’t that contradict with your statement above?
My fifth largest holding, I thought Majestic was a quality play?
http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4432/35537553834_b548ecf8b8_b.jpg
Tx Mr Market, I need a new fartstring …
It should be ok when silver hits $500. In three hundred years.
or 21dollars at the end of 2017 ๐
Yeah, that sure as hell is not happening. Once silver breaks below its 200 month moving average again, the fairytale will be over.
lol, of that was funny.
*ok
Gary, are you back from vacation, or are you still hanging out with the rocks? BTW, I’m waiting on Palobar to give us our next projected cycle bottom in gold. I know Palobar’s secret. He is an astronomer at Mt. Palomar Observatory, gazing at the stars to give us their secrets about the markets. ๐
Today, it all went to shit with not one of my holdings going up. However, the SLV i bought this morning closed at my buy price so that is neutral. Silver will be rockin again before too long.
Today’s first dunce hat goes to desertsun for not using an email address book . Even my dog knows better.
Another dunce hat goes out to Christian for not buying DUST when his gut told him too. But i don’t think the miners are going to fall further, so maybe it was his gut telling him NOT to buy. Changed my mind, Christian does not get to keep the dunce hat.
I will be around sometime this weekend, studying the markets for more opportunities. Check in in case I find something important.
BD, man your awfully boastful for somebody who road my coattails on the silver trade. Before you beat your chest so much why don’t you come up with a profitable trade yourself!!!
Wow, there are some bargains out there right now on some of the mid tier gold miners. I am looking at one in particular that has 750 million in cash and its market cap is only 1.3 billion. There is gold in them there hills…..ha…..ha.
out of Dusty … miner bargain hunting next week …
One other thing. For anybody thinking that I’m full of shit on the email trades that were sent I suggest you send an email to [email protected] & then wait and see it you get a email failure notice. This account is still open for the naysayers out there!
desert: I tried three different email accounts and so far, received no bounce backs.
if I was playing , I would post the exact trade email here as well , so there’s no confusion from the guru..
Some are calling today a sell off for gold and the miners but gold did not produce a weekly red Heiken-Ashi candle stick so that is a good indication that gold’s uptrend is intact. The same is true for GDX. We have a weekly higher high and higher low.
If I were holding DUST or JDST. I would be watching closely next week for the possibility of a rapid recovery snatching away today’s profits.
Please let me know where you get your supply. I want some too.
Only for anal retentive’s. I think it must be a prescription. The same stuff Big Dodo gives to his dog.
It didn’t?
https://i.imgur.com/18dn1Fc.png
Oh I see. You said “weekly”. The daily chart has been solid.
I rarely use daily charts.
You do know that GDX has ALREADY broken down from its triangle pattern back in the middle of June on the weekly chart level. Or maybe not. You probably don’t really read those weekly charts either.
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GDX&ty=c&ta=0&p=w
No wonder you are such a crappy trader and have not joined the contest.
You cannot lose your profits when you already sold Donny. If I have told you once I told you a thousand times that those leveraged ETF’s are for day traders only. Any damned fool buying one and holding on deserves to lose his gains. Especially over a weekend.
100% this cancerous candle is getting taken out in the next few weeks.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p12012888016&a=538039541&listNum=1
Sounds like everyone caught whining fever today.
Expect a bounce in the miners: GDXJ BOW 134m
Very short term I agree. And the bigger picture is definitely bullish looking on the charts. Its the bits in the middle that are debatable. We probably spend to much time arguing over the medium time frames around this site which distracts from the larger pattern. GDX has a great inverse H&S pattern in play if it holds up but that does not mean we won’t retest 17 dollars along the way. This is why I hate holding anything for two long. Its just up-down-up-down endlessly and you are never certain to keep a profit. The only way I have figured out to win at this game consistently is to take the money off the table when it arrives and then play again the next day.
GDX Monthly chart – A great pattern if you have the patience to wait until it arrives
http://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=GDX&ty=c&ta=0&p=m
Hi Nada
Not sure I would give to much last time it went up, may get a small bounce down, but next stop for gold is around 1160,
Mustang Sally
Interesting indicator Nada.
But in GDX a large outflow (-192) so GDXJ may bounce and GDX go lower Monday, initially.
Pedestrian, Christian, Ex Nihilo — bravo on this short term market read in gold & miners — Impressive!
Bluebellkid — Interesting take on Friday’s action in the sector ๐
Thanks man. Back on top again. I hardly skipped a beat even though I was away from the computer for several months. Gary wants me to join his trading contest but I will be damned if I am going to start handing out real-time free trades each day. Not a f*cking chance that’s happening.
He can do his own homework.
Ped: So that’s why you don’t post your trades. Here I thought it was because you didn’t want to be exposed as a fraud. Hillarious!! Please, go ahead and post those fake winning day trades, I can assure you that no gives a shit.
I have posted a multitude of trades in the past. All but one was a gainer. You were the one pushing me to keep posting them until I realized you were just riding coat-tails at my expense. And that’s why it ended. No more freebies for you either.
You are on your own again.
Ped, you are too funny. I actually use you as an excellent contrary indicator and never feel comfortable having you on the same side as one of my positions.
You just looooove talking to me though!!
Christian figured you out.
yes, he’ll be using the data to his advantage..
What about meeeeee? ๐
And more follow thru to the downside in both gold and GDX are in the cards for Monday, before some sort of bounce… either towards a “daily” cycle high or, Ped’s suggestion of a “daily” cycle low.
Hi Nada
Not sure I would give to much last time it went up, may get a small bounce down, but next stop for gold is around 1160,
Mustang Sally
Ped: On July 26, before the market opened, you made a statement that was very bearish on gold and platinum. Gold had been falling the day prior and during night trading and was trading in the 1245 range. GDX was at 22.27. Gold went on to close that day at 1260 and peaked Aug, 1 at 1274. You were also dead wrong on platinum. Here is your statement:
________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Pedestrian
July 26, 2017 at 6:09 am
Good morning Zkot. Good to hear from you.
I am taking my cue on gold from the platinum chart where price has turned down fairly precisely based on the lower channel established by the lows of March and May (upper platinum channel is the February and July peaks). That channel angle repeats itself on the daily chart in several places making it meaningful so it was a natural place to see prices decline. As platinum often leads gold I drew a quick conclusion that we are about to see a cyclical decline. When I say โcyclical declineโ by the way I am merely talking about the rhythmic rise and fall of gold/silver and platinum that is readily visible on any daily chart (see link below). At this time we are in the timing band for a decline given the pattern of recent months so while my conclusion is not rocket science there is going to be better than even probabilities we fall from here rather than shoot higher. Just take in the chart with an open mind. It looks like a heartbeat monitor with the next move predictably going down.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________
Today, after a rather minor sell off, gold closed at 1258, well ABOVE the 1245 it was at when you made your July 26 statement. If you were so sure of yourself, as your statement on July 26 would indicate, why were you not day trading (and losing) then? You want us to believe that you held off until yesterday and put on a bearish trade just in time to profit today? I call bullshit. You are a phony, plain and simple and that is why you won’t post your trades unless it’s well after the fact.
No Don, my post and those that followed were pretty clear that I was watching for the precise turn and I said several times I was waiting for a suitable buy signal. That would be one of my choosing and not one I would publicize for your benefit since I know you to be lazy. Its always easier to let others figure out the buy and sell points isn’t it? To be pointed, I very clearly identified the turn based on the chart pattern and we have, in my opinion, begun the cyclical decline I referred too. So sorry, but you cannot possibly amount to a worthy trader if all your energy is devoted to bothering others on this site every day.
Truly Don, your pride and envy are your downfall.
PS: You are back on *ignore* since you have nothing to offer.
Not even a single lousy trade from you. Just nothing but harassment.
Ped says ” I said several times I was waiting for a suitable buy signal.” You did? When was that? You just love making shit up and hope no one calls you out on your crap! At no time did you ever say that you had bought anything.
Quit hiding behind the bullshit : ” I will be damned if I am going to start handing out real-time free trades each day” as an excuse for not posting your imaginary trades. I am the very last person that would ever follow your lead on anything so don’t worry about me “riding on your coat tails”. That will never happen.
Don, are you saying you emailed [email protected] from three different email accounts and received sent verifications on all three accounts?
Avi has come out with his prognosis…”massive breakout” or “major failure.” That about covers all the bases.
He actually said that?
LOL!!!! That guy is hysterical.
Take a position man! There is no half-pregnant.
here we go again, the fulliest of Full Moon on Moonsday ๐ Silver the Moon metal.
https://www.calendar-12.com/moon_calendar/2017/august
21candles up on Monday the 7th, what is the esoteric meaning of seven?
oh 21 is “7+7+7 = 21 (2+1=3) 3 is the number of resurrection & new life .Jesus spent 3 days in the tomb, Jonah 3 days in the whale.”
“Since ancient times, the number seven (7) has always held a special significance in our universe, the creation of human kind, 7_Chakrasand in religion. The number 7 is often called the holy number, lucky number, the prophetic number, or the mystical number.”
Yes, seven means luck, that is good enough for me.
btw, what is the inverse of 7? 1/7= 0.142857 in a loop with same numbers repeating strange … aha
14=7*2
28=7*3
57=7*8+1 who is +1?
one day I must look deeper into this!
You might want to look deeper in the calculator: 7*3=28???
Thank you for reading my post so carefully, a big thumbs up!
You must add 6h, it was late …
I didn’t count the candles in Silver, my bad we are at candle 25ish now. The cycle is down for a while.
It is stunning how the $USDJPY chart and the $HUI chart are more or less mirror images of each other, especially with respect to the their MAs. Dare I say, I would much rather be long $usdjpy than miners right now. The monthly charts are equally similar, with one showing a golden cross and the other a death cross. I’ll let you guess which is which.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24USDJPY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p69226236425&a=538062272&listNum=1
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p75381026685&a=538062292&listNum=1
Pedestrian,
“PS: You are back on *ignore* since you have nothing to offer.
Not even a single lousy trade from you. Just nothing but harassment.”
(Your reply to Donkey Con)
Hey bro — back at you: Move on from Donkey Con! just as you suggested to me.
My Page Down key is back in action like a superhero!
Though I must admit, I do get a kick out of you railing on Donkey Con for his blather. Makes me wonder if he is the same as the old “Don Zucker” from the premium site a few years back. What a blathering idiot who proclaimed himself the keeper of all knowledge in the universe.
I page down right thru those two adders!
21posts, here is another Lunar event coming soon lets reuse the number 21, the 21st of August a total Solar eclipse in the US
http://eclipsewise.com/solar/SEnews/TSE2017/TSE2017.html
Oh Gary is buying into to this astrology stuff, awesome ๐ the solarsystem is a complex clockwork that is affecting us all, it’s not just the Sun and Moon. The Venus cycle of 225days kicked in the 27th of July.
Saturn is also swirling around in the background. The funny hat that you Americans wear during the examination day, is a copy of Saturn, a black quadrant. Same thing in Saudi Arabia, the muslims circling the black quadrant stone, it’s Saturn.