150 thoughts on “ANALYSIS PARALYSIS

  1. Gary Post author

    I have to give kudos to surf. He doesn’t play this game. He makes real time calls in his portfolio.

    One of the few who actually has the balls to stick his neck out and make a call.

  2. Gary Post author

    Everything looks pretty good at the moment.

    The semis have broken out of their triangle.

    The stock indexes have completed weekly swings and broken out of their flag patterns.

    The NDX and Dow are holding the breakout of their long term bull channel.

    Miners have broken out of their extended basing pattern.

    And oil has completed its daily cycle low and the DCL has held well above the June YCL.

    The only thing that looks bearish is the dollar. Which makes sense. If the dollar is starting a bear market then all other assets should be in bull markets.

  3. Spanky

    can AXU get a 6th consecutive close above the upper bollinger band? This is pretty extreme behavior and I would expect a significant pullback to begin imminently. Anyone buying up here is almost 100% going to have to suffer a multiweek consolidation. That being said, am I selling anything here? Hell no. When the HUi makes new all time highs I might consider taking some profits.

  4. alvinheart

    We have a serious Gold takeoff — just purchased my last tranche of JNUG this morning — HERE WE GO!!!!!

    1. Spanky

      I hope you are right but the miners are very extended here. This is the danger of buying after a breakout IMO.

      1. Gary Post author

        I would not be buying leverage this late in a daily cycle. One could buy GDX and then convert it to NUGT once a correction occurs.

        That would be a safer strategy IMO.

        1. Gary Post author

          Put the Fib retracements on the gold chart so you get some idea of how deep the correction will go once the cycle tops. If you don’t think you can hold through at least a 38% retrace with leverage then you need to go with an unleveraged position right now.

  5. chrisG

    I am different this time. I sold my jnug, gdx, clf, ag, iag today. Bought about a week ago. Only keeping CDE. Also keeping my silver futures longs bought few weeks ago. IAG is so overbought on the daily i just got to sell. A bit different from my previous self. Previously, too fearful of missing a forever bull run. Then the correction scared me to sell . Now i prefer to sell some, keep some. Buy back during the next correction. Hopefully, it works for me this time.

    1. Spanky

      I agree, some of the miners are at extremes. A drop back to the 20 hour MAs is for sure in the cards over the next week IMO.

  6. jacob2

    OIl, trend change underway? After we’ve finished with our annual September correction perhaps sector leadership. Own lots of oiler’s old turkey. I’m now the self annoited oil cheerleader. Going backpacking for 2 weeks most things do better when your not looking, encouraging. From worst to first? HA

    1. Gary Post author

      In the end our ERX position will end up probably breaking even, or making at least some profit and I will again be proven correct in my strategy. Those that just got whipsawed out over and over will have so damaged their mental capital that they won’t be able to pull the trigger and they will just end up with losses.

  7. chrisG

    Couldnt resist it. Bought back AG few cents higher. I think better go sleep to prevent doing something stupid!

    1. Spanky

      Yeah AG is one that can definitely get away from you. It has also underperformed too, so arguably has some catching up to do.

      I really don’t care what the miners do over the next month as long as they don’t take out the July lows.

  8. Kruzoe

    Another profitable day for me as I bought Jnug late Friday afternoon. Buy before the breakout, not after. I have noticed that the breakout has been occurring mostly over the weekend, before the market opens. The trick is to get the direction right, or make a quick adjustment if you get it wrong.

    1. Nada

      I remember you saying you were going to buy one or the other on Friday EOD. Did you post which one you bought on Friday? If so, congrats on a nice win. If not, then its hindsight trading πŸ™‚

  9. Spanky

    Commodities (GCC) big gap up this morning. Does it get filled?

    Commodities owe the stock market serious payback. Talk about a one way street over the last 7 years.

  10. Spanky

    Decent sized inverted head and shoulders on the GCC daily chart. If the neckline is broken, projects to about 20 or so.

  11. ARends

    Ped, (back to previous point)

    The median price of those periods Gold was the basis to all money, the fact the amount of money in the world to those periods could be very different if all the money or debt was brought back to silver and gold is one of the arguments for $ 8000 calculated gold and $ 500 silver price.

    This is another POV taken to consider

    1. Nada


      Not sure if you are trying to be a smart ass or if you have a legitimate question. When I posted the chart last week, yes gold was below the 2011 bear market trendline, using spot gold as reference. Yes we had the spike above and now a close over said trendline due to the news related item.

      With that said, I doubt you had a legitimate question and it was more of a taunt. You think I have a crystal ball and know what the market is going to do? I certainly do not. I was just trying to provide some useful analysis on what I thought gold was likely to do. I guess I have missed all your charts and useful contribution but I certainly will be on the lookout moving forward.

      I added to 124 125 and opened 126 GLD puts today BTW. Love to see some of your real time calls.

  12. 1970confused

    Could we be at the start of another run in the miners like we had at the beginning of 2016? Sure hope so :)!

  13. Lenapowich

    GDXJ is on the move. Watching the miners take off is real pleasure. Switching from GDX to GDXJ was a good idea. I make no claim to be a skilled investor but I find it interesting that so many of the experts here on this board were on the wrong side of this move when it started.(Nada, Pedestrian, Christian). I guess that is how it works.

    1. Nada

      LOL. Hopium is in the air this morning. I don’t think any of the individuals you listed ever claimed to be an expert on anything – well maybe Ped. Sorry Ped, just messing with ya. Anyway, I think we have all three have been saying the same thing to a certain degree – gold is due to start a hunt for a daily cycle low, sentiment is extreme and the cycle is stretched.

      None of have access to a crystal ball and Kim certainly didn’t share his plans to detonate an atomic bomb over the weekend. Furthermore, I listed about 10 times that gold was very dangerous to short due to geopolitical environment and that a better strategy was to wait for the DCL and long. I said I enjoyed the challenge of the short and like the emotional pain.

      With that said, if you don’t like the analysis or the trade idea – then move on. No reason to attack a trader because an asset did not move as he planned. If you think this was the first time I have been on the wrong side of a trade, then well I will be the first to tell you, it is not. I have late Nov puts in GLD 124 125 and 126 strikes. Lets see how they play out, but for forks sake, give them a chance to play out.

      1. Christian

        Nada is bang on πŸ™‚ I would also add that I’ve been a Gold Bull since we hit the bottom in December 2015 but I do like to play both sides of the trend to line my pockets. I am mostly bang on but there are times when the cycle stretches and surprises everyone with more (in this case) upside move.

        Regardless.. if you think GDXJ is gonna just keep going up; you’re in for a real surprise. Eventually, Gold will correct into a DCL, and it’ll be up to you to lock in profits or watch it all evaporate..!

        Enjoy the ride.

    2. alvinheart

      I think Nada had it right, now? Now the Yen is strengthening and will provide another big-time move lower in the USD and a rush higher in gold.

      1. Nada

        Well something to watch for on the Yen. GBPJPY is adding pressure to the yen, and has formed a nice inverse head and shoulders pattern;


        Also the Euro looks to have a topped, so from what I see.. More pressure to be added to the Yen. Market needs a few days to settle over the news, and NK’s / Trumps continued action could make it very difficult for any of the items listed above to work.

  14. Kruzoe

    Nada, I no longer post my real time trades. I did that in the past 4-5 months for about 15 trades in Jnug, Dust, etc. You can go back and check for yourself. As far as I know Goild and I were the only ones posting trades in real time (and Gary, of sourse). I should be over $100K profit this week on these trades.

    1. Nada

      Well I can certainly see what you stopped. A lot of incoming flak for posting in real time. Congrats on the wins.

    2. JJHarmen

      I followed Kruzoe’s trades when no one else was paying attention and he did remarkably well for a short term trader and he did post his trades very quickly. Maybe some of the losers here should shut your traps and give the guy some credit.

      1. Christian

        It’s risky.. but it should pay off.

        I never load the truck on a counter trend move which I think is what’s making this somewhat bearable at the moment.

    1. Kruzoe

      Christian, I will enter a Dust trade “soon”. In my experience, averaging down on a 3xETF is a losing proposition more often than not. I like to play the percentages.

  15. JJHarmen

    It seems that the short term traders with their charts and technical studies, are always knocking the longer term holders who ride out the ups and downs and eventually turn out to be the smarter investors.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Not much of what you have to say has proven to be “useful” and if anyone is a troll, it’s you Nada.

        1. Nada

          Yes BD and all your shorts that handed you your ass, we should have been following your “gut” vs any technical data, lol.

  16. Goild

    Good morning,

    Kruzoe, I think, is a very talented trader.
    I am happy for him to have what I call ‘ a clear mind.’
    Recall that ultimately it is the physiological buildup what determines how far a trader will go in this game and how much the trader will make.

    He is now, or about to pass into the first tier, this is more than $100K a year.
    I am not sure how many here are in the first tier.

    Kruzoe, do you mind to say how many years of trading experience you have?

    Good trading to all!

  17. Jimsee

    sep 5 cycle proves itself….thinking today’s gap fills on gdx, but not much more – perhaps gold to 1300 retest b/o levels to get some shorts worked in.

  18. Jimsee

    after 25 years it is still amazing to watch the dates work well while ‘analysts’ rail on about special circumstances *every single time*. Apparently these ‘random events’ are randomly attracted to special circumstances? Or perhaps the special circumstances *are* what make a market, expressed in a timing fashion?

    1. Nada

      What “dates” are you referring to? Where do these “dates” originate? I am not disagreeing with your logic, I just would like to know what your logic is based upon.

      1. Jimsee

        I’ve been posting dates on here since july lows. The logic is astronomy and math cycles – and no they are not *all* planetary – as far as I know – I believe in the matrix concept – a digital universe as in J.Wheeler – aka there are important ‘edges’ of the physical reality construct , the cycles in my mind are ‘bends’, convergences that push physical reality in one direction or another.

        1. Nada

          Thanks for the follow up. I have never studied their effects, but I find it interesting due to Gann. Do you have a website that you recommend on the subject? Cheers.

          1. Jimsee

            not really – I’d start with the bohr-einstein debates, move on to Wheeler’s arguments on digitial physics. Then the best way to learn is to get a basic education in planetary aspects/harmonics available from just about everywhere – there are astro-programs for trading – don’t buy them imo – ignore the ‘gann/elliott website’ hucksters – most of them don’t know jack except how to fleece sheep. There are ‘tricks’ to learn but those are best reserved for down the road – u will know when u hit a wall and some things seem to make sense but the reliability is relatively low. When u have learned enough, you will only need a price chart and an astro wheel program – available for free on the internet.

    1. Jimsee

      nope – got a currently losing put position on spx 2300 strike, holding through oct 20 or so – will sell and roll down strikes if the position triples or so.

  19. Bigdaddy

    I am still here Lena. I can handle big mouthed losers like Pedestrian and Nada taking low shots at me. They are just jealous. I ain’t going no where. Stick with your buy and hold strategy. Ignore the detractors of your success.

    1. Nada

      LOL! Listen pops, this all started with you.. When you asked Gary about Biotech, I made a joke about what he would say – in regards not taking bio trades due to politicians in Washington. Then you decide to tell me to “piss off” over that? You trade stocks about as well as you fly planes, lol.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Quit twisting the facts! I told you to piss off because you implied that I was a simpleton. You and that useless pedestrian are two peas in a pod, always taking shots at the better players. It had nothing to do with biotech or what Gary said.

        1. Nada

          WRONG. Go back and look at the blog my friend. This all occurred because of that very fact I just referenced. I followed up with your “piss off” with the “simpleton” comment. Obviously you are losing your memory as well BD.

          1. Bigdaddy

            You are right Nada

            August 31, 2017 at 2:32 pm
            There is no reason to be. I have never seen an insult out of him unless someone attacked him. His analysis is solid and others enjoy simpletons who say they have a gut feeling.

            Ok, so who was the simpleton you were referring to with the gut feeling, if it was not me? That was very very insulting and uncalled for.
            I then went on to say: “Sonny, you can stuff your wise assed remarks up where the sun don’t shine” That was a nicer way for me to tell you to piss off.
            Anyway, I am done with you. I don’t see you making any money and that figures because you and that clued out Pedestrian are always stroking one another and he never makes a dime.

          2. Nada

            Are you that feeble minded that you can not read the dates? I clearly admitted above that I called you a simpleton AFTER you told me to “piss off”. You brought this on yourself as I had no ill regard for you. However, you bet your ass if you insult me I am going to return the favor. As you stated so eloquently, you earned my disrespect.

  20. Bigdaddy

    The SM is moving my way but it needs to drop further before I am into profitability. I am confident that I will make money on all my short positions. I want to get back into silver and will but not with triple leverage. As usual, i will post my trade immediately for those who care to follow along.

      1. victor

        It Canadian HVI.to, 2x. I’ve lost my 1st account with options 9yr ago and promised do not touch options anymore.

  21. Nada

    Its amazing that we had SOS on SPY close to 1 billion on Friday. Someone had some very useful insider information – or someone was pulling their support from the markets.

    1. Sassybabe

      Nada, what does the SOS mean? It sounds important. I don’t understand some of the terminology people use here. By the way, I did a lot more reading of past comments and made a list of traders that seem to know what they are talking about and you are one of them even if you are not always right.

      Bigdaddy scored high also and I think his appearance of not being very knowledgeable is a bit of a pretense. His relentless calls to buy silver turned out to be quite insightful. Perhaps you guys could stop with the pointless fighting and respect one another for your talents. Just a suggestion.

      1. Nada

        @Sassybabe Yes fine by me. In regards to the terminology, SOS means “Selling on Strength” and BOW means “Buying on Weakness”.

        There is a report that is updated about every 15mins produced by WallStreet Journal that lists money flows. It is most useful around 4pm eastern time as the final print is in. To be clear, it is just a tool to add to your war chest. As with any other tool, it is never reliable by itself.

        With that said, large prints in certain assets can be a big red flag. Here is the link and feel free to ask about any terms you need clarification on;


        Notice there is a selling on strength link at the top left you can view also.

  22. Kruzoe

    Goild, Been trading since the dotcom bust of 2000 or so. Those were exciting days. Those days will be with us again in the not too distant future.

  23. Pedestrian

    Looks like palladium hit a top. It’s not a metal I usually follow or take much interest in but with auto sales having peaked and demand for catalytic converters going into decline it probably makes sense that its ready to sell off.

    1. Sassybabe

      (pedestrian) You sound so informed but yet you are almost always wrong. Strange. Your track record on gold and oil has been horrible!

      1. Pedestrian

        Like some others here you don’t know the difference between trading and speculating on ideas. Link the comments you think were wrong. Meanwhile you can keep your worthless remarks to yourself instead of becoming another of the trolls here who know squat but always stir up trouble.

        1. Bigdaddy

          ?? How do you figure Sassybabe is stirring up trouble just because she discovered the obvious? Pedo, you talk like someone who believes his own horseshit even when faced with the facts and the fact is that you are wrong almost 100%. There is a name for your kind of person but I can’t remember it off hand. I will look it up later and let you know.

    1. Gary Post author

      This is not over yet. Whether we made the ICL two weeks ago or whether it’s still ahead of us (The PPT may have stretched the cycle by not allowing it to occur naturally ahead of Jackson Hole) there is going to be a bubble phase in stocks.

      There was never any doubt about that the day QE1 began.

  24. Gary Post author

    It sure doesn’t look like the dollar is ready to rally.

    Are we about to get another failed daily cycle?

    A weaker dollar would be beneficial to the economy and will create more inflation.

    Everything should go up just like it did from 2003 to 2007 and again from 2009 to 2011.

  25. Alexandru Popovici

    Covering the EURUSD shorts – USX is still in the old DC to bottom post-ECB on thursday.
    I will reshort EUR after the event.

    Crude early on day 2 of its DC w/ good stamina.

    Stocks to produce a marginal higher high before the final leg down to YCL ; thus this correction is temporary but not worth buying it either.

    1. Gary Post author

      I had a similar thought. If stocks are going to give us a true ICL in October they will probably be pumped up ahead of the September fomc meeting. So I would expect most of the decline if it is going to happen would occur after that event into the middle of October.

  26. dboz

    Metals and miners playing out exactly how I predicted. Only problem is I am a sideline sitter. Mentally broke me in July. Now can’t pull the trigger. As Gary says, most will not make a dime in this bull market. FOMO, chasing, train left the station, no pullbacks, no dips, just unrelenting upside. Never to return. Time to load the boat was July. Screwed now. IF we get a dip I will consider myself very lucky.

    1. Spanky

      Of course we will get a dip.

      You are clearly not alone though, which makes me think we could go even higher still before a significant pullback as wanna be longs capitulate.

    2. Pedestrian

      Don’t worry Boss. There is always a dip. The next one should be memorable to so don’t fret about it.

  27. Jimsee

    1380 gold possible in the 1 day window (tomorrow) – but 1350 SOLD / move gold $ to gdx imo – time for catch up through next DC.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Don told me once it’s difficult to play and win with the soft commodities ETFs because the roll over costs of contango are very high will kill you. I don’t play them anyway. Don’t care about wheat.

  28. Bigdaddy

    Gary, are you still waiting for a pull back in gold to get in? I recall you saying something to that effect a few times when gold was around 1300. Where u at with that now?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve been in the whole time. What are you talking about?

      Haven’t you been listening to the videos where I recommended having a position just not leveraged?

      1. Bigdaddy

        I WAS in and sold the leveraged on past Thursday and Friday and made good coin. Yes, you said we should now buy unleveraged on dips. Do you see a dip coming up any time soon?

        Gary Post author
        August 28, 2017 at 5:05 am
        During the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle the strategy is to buy dips… or just hang onto long positions.

  29. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, yes, mid Oct indeed for stocks – similar to the same period 3 ys ago! Then we had an IC made up of just one DC; the same is now happening and in the same span of the year.

  30. Nada

    I posted this chart a few weeks ago before my target of 1316 was hit and I sold my remaining long position.

    It will be most interesting if this closes above new channel. If that happens and a close over 1347, then daily cycle low will change much. With that said, it is also interesting to note in regards to harmonics that a bearish weekly gartley is forming, but fib level could run all the way to .886 which is 1346ish before potential correction.

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    By the of bearish harmonics , there is one about to complete on the daily charts of SPX and of NYSE except that the D-point has yet to be drawn, most likely at a historical high later this month (the X is the current historical high).
    AB segment is 50% sharp retracement of XA.

    1. Troy

      I sold my JNUG too and added some more TQQQ and SVXY with the funds.
      I will go more heavily back into JNUG at the next DCL.

      1. zbigkid

        too many here on just this board alone are selling JNUG. This has been a great indicator in the past, y’all are WAY too early. Also Gary commenting that it’s too late in the cycle to buy 3x leverage, is a good indicator too, that JNUG has a LOT more room to run, before any significant correction. You see, JNUG has been hammered for so long, and so many times when it was going up a LOT from end of 2013 to early 2014, all you early birds (early to leave) are too nervous to hold. Or you are waiting a decent ‘correction’ to try to play it ‘safe’ and jump back in. Sorry. It don’t work that way. JNUG never has worked that way. JNUG has been down a ton since mid 2014, from over 3000 to now around low 20’s priced in today’s shares after its splits. You’ll never make squat on JNUG getting ‘out’ now. Guarantee you that. Gary’s comments about volatility in 3x etf’s or specifically JNUG way under characterize how bad it truly is. You CANNOT possibly ‘time’ this ETF.

        1. Pedestrian

          This sure as hell isn’t January 2016.

          Back then I recall gold rose about 200 dollars in 6 weeks time and mining shares went off like rockets soaring double, triple, quadruple and even more. Juniors became 10 baggers. It was a shock to anyone who missed the run.

          And that was one time you really had to chase the trend or you missed it completely.

          A lot of serious gold bugs missed out because they had become so accustomed to losing at gold every time it moved they were just paralyzed with fear, loathing and doubt.

          I recall painfully how anguished they were by February that year upon realizing they had just missed the biggest move in mining stock in years and could never catch the bottom that they had been waiting for so long.

          That was a tough break. But is this time going to be the same? Will little Kimmy light a fire under gold and catch everyone off guard once more? Admittedly it looks that way lately as gold has now risen some 150 bucks in just 8 weeks so that part looks familiar.

          Miners are not responding like they did back in early 2016 though. Something is different this time. I noticed today that TECK, a Canadian mining bell-weather has abruptly turned down at resistance and started to drop.

          I have been warning you all recently that copper was about to tumble and TECK may now be signaling that the time has finally arrived. I had expected it to fall at a resistance level closer to the three dollar mark but instead it rose another 20 cents in defiance.

          Not wrong, just early….

          What has happened during that extra push higher though is that copper has arrived at a very critical turning point that is much gloomier should it now go down for the count. It is going to be far worse than I initially expected actually and I believe we should now prepare ourselves for a possible retrace back to the low 2.00 dollar region at a minimum.

          This post like many others I write will no doubt fall on deaf ears around here. I think we are entering a recession though and Dr Copper is going to give us the first honest insight into how expectations should be lowered.

          My trade is short copper. It will be a buy and hold for some months.

          You doubters can kiss my ass.

          1. Gary Post author

            It seems that no matter how far something rallies you always expect a top.

            Have you always had trouble riding a trend?

            That has been a pretty convincing breakout from the basing pattern in miners. The same with copper. It was pinned below the 200 week moving average for a long time building energy. Once it broke out it took off.

          2. Pedestrian

            I live for tops Gary. Because this is still a bear market in metals. That’s my area of interest so I try to trade them. No problem with bottoms either since that’s where we get the best fresh opportunity. I did miss this one but in my defense I was away on holidays when it began and didn’t want to start chasing late in the game.

            No big deal.

            Anyway, you go ahead and ride that trend. I am a serious doubter and the market needs both of us for the whole thing to function properly. Just don’t expect me to come over to your side unless I honestly start to believe in it.

            And I am not just saying this just to be contrarian. It is a strong personal belief based on technicals that I follow. I could be wrong Gary. But the waiting is not costly except as a lost opportunity.

            Hell man. We all get it wrong sometimes. Lets not make an issue of it.

          3. Gary Post author

            How can the technicals still be calling for a bear market when the bear market trend line has been broken?

            That was pretty much your last line of defense and now that is gone too.

          4. Pedestrian

            No, it was one line of defense but not the final one. Do you recall I have repeatedly stated that this topping pattern is going to finalize itself as a double-top? Well I think that is exactly what is about to happen. The only difference here is that I realized price would need to exceed the 2016 highs which would by implication tell us that following the decline (impending) that we would get a tremendous rally not to be missed.

            So I am not all bear. I do agree there is going to be one hell of a good run up in metals and miners but where I don’t agree is that you think it has already started.

            My position remains that we need one more decline first and that decline should get underway shortly after gold has exceeded its 2016 highs and before it hits 1400 dollars (I left myself a little wriggle room in there).

            Gary, the market needs the majority to be on the wrong side of the boat to work. What we need here is for almost everyone to throw in the towel on the bearish thesis and start taking large positions in metals.

            But for that to happen gold will have to rally ABOVE the bear market trend-line for a period until the bears are exhausted and exasperated and finally cash out of their positions at a loss.

            We are getting closer day by day. I wish I could time it more precisely. I think you know exactly what I am talking about here though so we are probably on the same wavelength anyway.

            All that the disagreement is about is you think I am missing a good trade for the moment. But I am prepared to wait until I get the size of the fish I came for, And its coming.

  32. Spanky

    Keep posting Nada. I find your analysis helpful, even though I may not agree with your trades per se all of their time. I especially like your channel chart.

  33. Christian

    Yes, in a BULL MARKET surprises are always to the upside.. but don’t be a greedy pig πŸ™‚

    Back in December 2016, GDX bottomed around $18.58 and shot up to $25.71 AND THEN retraced to the 62% Fib. Now, I’m not suggesting this is what’s going to transpire when Miners finally correct down into a DCL but for those of you that think you can just keep riding the gravy train — you’re about to get a wake up call!


    If GDX tops around that RESISTANCE ZONE than the most likely bounce out of the next DCL will be around $24 which coincides with the 38% Fib and the June 2017 top. This will be your next best buying opportunity.


    Getting in at the bottom is tough. Getting out at the top is even harder.

  34. primetime

    I mean, if you have been trading DUST the past couple weeks you simply do not know how markets work and you do not have the patience and discipline it takes to be successful at this. You really must change careers and sell real estate or better yet pour concrete or flip burgers. You will make a lot more money than you do in the stock market. Stop influencing amateur traders with your intimidation and lack of market knowledge.

    Of course there will be a pull back, but does it really matter when you have a five year investment window. The trend is your friend, SON.

    This nonsense is getting old and confusing……even to a CAVEMAN.

    P.S. Getting in at the top is easy and dumb. Getting out at the bottom while trying to save your ass
    is hard.

    1. Gary Post author

      Ahhh if only people would listen to me about shorting the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. There are quite a few in the challenge stubbornly hanging on to massive short positions. It will be interesting to see if they can recover before the year is over.

      1. Nada

        Gary, no worries! We will just delete and reset our portfolios if it gets to ugly. You kinda of set yourself up for that one πŸ™‚

        1. Gary Post author

          That’s the purpose of the challenge, no one gets to reset their portfolio or have it both ways like I outlined in the video.

          Now all of you have to play by the same rules as me. πŸ™‚

          It’s not quite as easy as trading in hindsight is it?

          I was able to come back from my mistake last year. Will you be able to recover from yours? We shall see.

          1. Nada

            Well come on now.. I never have traded in hindsight on this blog. I have no idea if you were able to come back from your mistake, but I will take your word for it because I have no reason not to.

          2. Christian

            Oh BS GARY — I was one of your subs when you decided to ERADICATE the SMT Model Portfolio, so don’t be lecturing anyone with your rhetorics!

          3. Gary Post author

            I adamantly maintain that it’s a mistake to try shorting into the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. If one chooses to follow this strategy you will have less money in your portfolio at the end of your career than you would have had otherwise.

          4. Christian

            Gary — First off, you’re being DEFLECTIVE. Second.. I’ve been trading both sides of the Market for years and I enjoy it. Most of the time I win, occasionally I lose.. that’s how she goes πŸ™‚ It’s a skill that takes time to master and I’ve got plenty of time.

            Third, I’m not dumb enough to trade a shit ton of money on a counter trend move. Most of my money is in Stocks and Real Estate and has been for years thx to Steve Sjuggerud, the rest is “play” money my friend. That’s why I don’t give a flying hoot about an online contest. I don’t need to be shown what I’ve already learned the hard way. D’you get it now??

          5. Gary Post author

            No I don’t get it. Until I see real time trades with percentages we only have your word that most of the time you win.

            Play by the same rules as me and everyone else in the challenge and prove it. πŸ™‚

          6. Pedestrian

            Yeah, he’s alright. But after you have already told him innumerable times you don’t want to join the contest I think in fairness he should stop badgering you and let if go. The contest is optional. Not an obligation to prove your manhood on a public free-site.

          7. Gary Post author

            I think if he’s going to continue to regal us with his victories he should be willing to prove it, just like the rest of us. πŸ™‚

            There are plenty of people here taking a big drawdown on metal shorts. But that doesn’t mean they are going to lose the contest. It’s very possible to come back from losing trades so no one is written off yet. The contest runs for an entire year. Everyone has plenty of time to recover from losing trades if you manage your risk and let the winning trades run when you have them.

            I’m not going to publicize anyone’s record other than to note the top 5 after every month. So no one needs to worry about me outing you if you have a few losing trades. You could very well end up winning the contest by the time the year is up.

            In the end the turtle beat the hare….

    2. Nada

      lol, primtime what is this about? Did I miss something with you and Christian? What has the guy done wrong besides be a bit early to the party? Do you think anyone can exactly call a top or a bottom – taking a draw down is part of the game.

      I don’t get it. Last week or so I was long gold and gave a target of 1306 and 1316 in spot gold and both were hit. I exited my last “tranche” of GLD calls and waited a few days and then started building a position for the upcoming DCL. I might add during that time a lot were bearish and didn’t think gold would run that high.

      I gave levels I added (like today I said where I added GLD 124 and 125 puts and bought 126 GLD puts). My options are late November and taunts have already been cast by a few members today. Obviously I was earlier than I would have liked in building my position, but good grief the position has not even had a chance to work.

      1. Christian

        Dude — this moron started on me once upon a time out of the blue and never let up, and when I started fighting back he just became vicious. He disappeared for a while but every now and then he needs to stop by just to trash my sexy little ass. Clearly this person has emotional issues :/

        I’ve asked Gary about getting rid of this PARASITE who brings absolutely nothing to this blog, but he’s only interested in getting rid of the ones that bother him — HOMERJ anyone?

        1. Nada

          “but he’s only interested in getting rid of the ones that bother him ” LOL! comments like that, make this site so entertaining.

          1. Pedestrian

            Yeah, that was quite a good clean up last year. I recall it well as there was a nasty group really doing a number on Gary each day until he’d finally had enough. I suppose the rest of us would like to clean out a few other irritants too but then what would that make us?

            Are any of us entitled to dictate to the rest?

            I mean, isn’t normal daily life just full of pompous jackasses who are a royal pain in the ass anyway? No different here. Except there are more of them since some of the timid mice who would not raise their voice to chipmunk in the real world, turn into lions on the internet blogs.

            It might be therapeutic. Especially if they had gone through life having to eat their own words most days and cow-tow to the boss like a sad little mop girl. So this is where they really get to show their stuff! To prove they are the inferiors of nobody and the equals of the rest.

            I say keep them and let their words speak for themselves.

            After all, from the keyboard to the screen, words are all we have.

        2. victor

          CAVEMAN is out of cave again bite anyone on his left and right. Probably lost lots of money. Can you offer something useful to the blog Primetime? Sure we all are amateurs for you…

  35. Goild


    Thanks for commenting.
    About 17 years of experience in this business.
    Well, you recent profit is well deserved.
    One more question.
    What do you mean by playing the percentages?
    Can you give an example?

  36. spectrum2105

    If you really know what you’re doing it just takes a very short post to show your results compared to previous predictions.

    The guys who don’t really know what they’re doing seem to have the longest, most complicated, meandering posts. And no results posted.

    If you really know what you’re doing it’s a very short argument that nobody can argue with.

  37. Goild


    Sorry to hear about your trades.
    Play small money, recover, analyze your trading, learn from it.
    There is no rush, there are always great deals in this business.
    They always come.
    Early in the year I had made +$95K to lose about $80K in falling knifes or stupidly.
    I have almost recovered playing like an ant.
    Best wishes.

  38. Goild

    Human mind…

    Early in August, when I was on vacation I ended up in a falling knife and loaded 24K JNUG shares at $16.5.
    It went down to $15.75 to lose on paper $18K. Of course, I did not sell as it reversed a bit. Kept the shares overnight.
    Then I posted about the ‘mental strength to ride a bull market,’ I knew of the issue, in fact early in January I set myself to ride the bounce and made $70K. This time instant gratification came, and the following day I pocketed +$17 by selling my 24K JNUG shares. Shall I have kept them till today, I would have had $200K in my pocket.

    Do not fool yourself thinking that it is easy to make money even if you are with the trend.
    In sum I have a $200K loss for succumbing to instant gratification.

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