142 thoughts on “Best Time of Year

  1. Bob

    With things focusing on the next FOMC meeting it’s always interesting to see what the expectations are on FedWatch. I think this is the first time I’ve seen suggestion of a reduction in the rate back to 75-100 (not much – only 1.4%) with 98.6% probability of maintaining the current rate at 100-125. In fact, there doesn’t appear much chance of a rate hike until possibly next July.

    http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html/?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/fed-funds.html

    1. Nada

      I have about 45 contracts in GLD 124p and I do not want to ride a possible bounce to fill gap. Other possibility is to hedge, but seems silly when profit can be had.

      1. Gary Post author

        If the dollar has formed an ICL then the rally could be powerful at the start. This would likely prevent any bounces in gold.

        Sometimes I think the money flow numbers are predictive and a sign of the banks taking positions as a result of inside information.

        Other times I think it’s just a hedge fund making a big bet. Those have no predictive value. I think the numbers yesterday for GDX were a hedge fund.

        1. Nada

          Possible Gary, and I always think maybe some pension plan manager buying gold late in the cycle because he knows no better. With that said, the GLD buying was more of a cautionary flag than the miners. I am being cautious at this point with a nice win yestersay and can add to that this morning.

          The other point of contention is USDJPY. Harmonics show bear, so with that and flows… knowing when to sell is harder than knowing when to buy..

  2. Gary Post author

    Watching the yen. If it breaks below the Aug. 31 DCL then we have a signal that a left translated cycle is in progress.

    If the yen gold correlation continues to hold then that would confirm the short cycle scenario for gold is underway.

      1. Pedestrian

        Interesting enough though, gold has not really responded to Yens decline and is still stuck around the 50% retrace level. I still think its going to bounce from this region. Right around the 1326 mark.

    1. Pedestrian

      I think you mean Wiggum. Yeah, those guys come and go with the gold-tards and assorted critics. I honesty don’t miss them when they are not here. Say, where is JJHarmen with his daily taunts? You guessed it. They only post when gold is rising and then slink back to their dens as soon as the market goes soft.

      Anyway Gary, bad news but ERX is topping out today and will be going back down tomorrow. You are going to have to hold through another decline before the next bounce comes in. With luck the rebound will get you to even but I kind of doubt it.

      1. Pedestrian

        You know what really bothers me most about these internet trolls. It’s that they only *appear* knowledgeable about the trade they are in when its rising. But when it declines they are like the proverbial swimmer when the tides go out and we see them naked and lacking the divine knowledge they claimed to have possessed during the rise.

        It’s like all the real estate geniuses proudly patting themselves on the back and pounding their chests as if they personally did something to make their houses rise in value. Or that they were specially gifted to know when and where to buy a house that would inexplicably rocket into the millions.

        The truth is that QE and low interest rates policies have floated all boats and very few who understand the mechanics can appreciate that. You did not need to know anything at all to benefit. No special education, no night school courses, no sweating over books on how to increase your home equity and no spiritual guidance from the other realm.

        None of it mattered except Central Bank policy.

        What those smart people always fail to understand though is that ALL inflated assets eventually return to their means. Hopefully that point is not missed by those reading this site. Mean reversion is more than just a cute idealistic thought from the field of economics. It is closer to a fact of life.

        What goes up eventually comes back down.

        No different than any other asset whether its gold, copper or chewing gum futures. Our problem as technicians is to attempt to understand when prices will reverse and begin a mean-reversion and admittedly that is no easy task. Gold might be there now. But then again, maybe not!

        So its easy to look like a complete idiot for extended periods of time while everyone else is basking in the warm glow of capital or stock appreciation without even knowing why it landed in their laps like a gift from heaven in the first place.

        Meanwhile, the gold-trolls and real estate wizards get to trample all over every site sounding like they actually know something and there is little we can do but tolerate them in silence. Our charts have often tipped us off to the larger truth ahead of time. But it’s always the damned timing that is the devil in detail.

        Once we get this last decline in gold out of the way I really dread having to put up with those insufferable gold twits once again. I do believe gold will turn bullish once more. But I am not sticking around to listen to morons with zero knowledge blather at me about the reason it has gone back up.

        Like the real estate geniuses, almost none of them know of what they speak.

      1. Pedestrian

        Looks like it bounced off support Nada. But this is getting to be a tight call since the trend has been down since the 7th and I don’t know that gold bulls will be so lucky by tomorrow. The euro MUST keep rising from here to tell us that dollars are not about to turn bullish again.

  3. Bigdaddy

    I am tempted to short more Facebook. I hate that stock with a passion and I can’t stand Zuchenburger either. He’s a turd. Stock market is pissing me off too. Wife is out shopping so i am free to cuss all i want.

    1. Christian

      I don’t mean no disrespect with my next few words but..

      The Market (whether it be Facebook or McDonalds) doesn’t give a F*ck about what you think. Don’t trade with your emotions Bigdaddy!

      1. Bigdaddy

        I understand what you are saying Christian but my decision to short FB has been based on the fact that people are losing interest . It’s a fad that will die as fads always do. Users are fed up with the ads and other unwanted junk in their news feed. Their CEO is a real puke.

        1. Christian

          I understand but I also don’t see any downward momentum with some of these stocks which means you could be waiting awhile and we both know you like that quick cash πŸ˜‰

  4. Goild

    Nada,

    So you bought a GDXJ $36 call for November.
    That gives you the right to buy GDXJ at $36 dollars from toady to November,
    If GDXJ gets to $40 say next week, then you may exercise your right, pay $36 for GDXJ and sell it at $40?How much does the call cost for 1000 GDXJ shares?

    Thanks.

  5. Bigdaddy

    MacDonalds has taken a dump today. That’s another garbage stock that has no business being so high. pretty much everything they sell is fake food. Only fat and dumber than shit folks eat there.

  6. Christian

    Anybody buying Miners right now is asking for an Ass kicking!

    GDX CLOSED and is currently trading below the 10 DMA. Consecutive closes below the 10 DMA will confirm a DC top and further downside is to be expected.

    **I will be buying my very LAST tranche in DUST today if we [once again] close below the 10 DMA. As previously mentioned on this blog, my current average is 22.25.. Would like to bring it below 22 for a move back up to 25/26.

          1. Christian

            I agree — The 2hr chart is overbought and we could get an intraday pull back of some sort – which is where I plan on buying my last tranche – but you’re still trading against momentum which is always a gamble.

            Caution is advised ladies πŸ™‚

      1. Christian

        GDX/NUGT are trading below their respective 10DMA — Open your eyes!

        If Miners were bouncing off their 10DMA then I would be singing a very different tune. Currently not the case.

        1. Pedestrian

          Copper an platinum seem to be leading. Copper has made a technical break-down after a failed backtest and looks headed a lot lower. I think its a warning we are about to see the dollar and euro reverse. If that is the case then gold won’t be going a whole lot higher. If it fails to exceed the 2016 highs this is a continuing bear market in my opinion.

    1. Nada

      LOL. I simply asked if you were going to continue to hold your 5000 shares of SPXU at an average of 14.98 and now I am trolling? I was curious if you had a game plan – maybe you were going to hedge, average down, sell some of your position, etc. You certainly didn’t mind trolling Christian about his DUST trade, did you BD?

      Oh I see, you can dish it out, but you can’t take someone rubbing ya a bit huh BD? Yeah what will I ever do without your gut to steer me in the market.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Nada, you are an okay guy and I retract my ‘troll label. Pedestrian is the real troll. He hates it when someone else makes money doing the opposite of what he says. Can’t stand the guy. Just like Pedo, I am not posting my trades anymore.

        1. Nada

          Ok BD, maybe we got off to the wrong foot with our previous comments. I am ready to let all that go. I think you should post your trade ideas. I am honestly not trying to troll you over your trade, as it takes some balls to post in real-time. I have been on the wrong side of the trade plenty of times and will continue to do so.

          SPX is approaching some resistance soon, so you might be OK. When a trade goes against you like that, I would recommending hedging with some options – or better yet, when you take a trade of that size buy options at the same time to protect yourself. You can get options on the cheap and the leverage will save your ass when things turn against you.

    2. Pedestrian

      BD, nobody has ever trolled your trades. Honestly I ignore you as much as possible since you haven’t got a clue but you keep attacking me for no reason which makes it impossible. Peace will break out just as soon as you stop invoking my name with negative commentary.

      It’s up to you bud.

    1. Pedestrian

      I can’t agree with your line work or chart Spanky. None of the technicals other than RSI support buying either. Take another look at the MACD and Stoch crossovers and then note Bollingers are closing in.

          1. Spanky

            The GDXJ:GLD ratio broke out of a triangle back on the 28th of August.

            The action between August 7th and August 28th was just a headfake lower during which time smart money was accumulating miners.

            We are not getting a pull back in the ratio before another leg higher. A move up in the ratio should correspond to a strong move up in the miners.

            I will be wrong if we manage to break below the 50 dma on the ratio. I clearly don’t think we will.

    1. Gary Post author

      After 2 months of going almost straight up it’s time for the metals to deliver a correction for at least a couple weeks.

      I would suggest waiting until after the fomc meeting to try and pick a bottom and if you just don’t have enough patience for that I would at least wait for a swing and for price to regain the 10-day moving average.

  7. Pedestrian

    I just cannot for the life of me see the bullish case for crude oil. Maybe I am blind to the obvious but the WTI and Brent daily charts look depressing to dismal as price rolls over in an obvious dome pattern. This is why ERX has not got much hope even as it hits a top today.

      1. Pedestrian

        Today’s video was not directed to me. I don’t chase trends. You would be aware of that having noticed I missed the second half of the gold rally during September. My method is to time entries and exits based on support and resistance and confirming technicals. I wait for the moment. Not all resistance channels hold as we saw with gold breaking higher recently. That is just a normal part of the market behavior and we don’t call ourselves wrong just for targeting a trade and being a little too early. But there will indeed be a healthy pullback and that’s what I will short. The key is to watch for an acceptable topping pattern or low risk entry. At times that means waiting for the decline (or rise as the case may be) to get underway before placing a trade. Patience is its own reward. So while you accuse me of being wrong (or late) what you are really missing is an understanding of my strategy. Between now and then I can blather on about any damned speculation I like. It’s the actual buy and sell that matter though.

    1. Spanky

      The monthly $WTIC chart is still repairing itself. I think ultimately any rally in crude is going to be capped by the declining 50 month MA (which just death crossed last month). That declining MA is coming in at $63.25 and is dropping pretty rapidly. The good news in $WTIC has built a pretty decent base now at this $50 level and could certainly make a move up to that declining MA in the next few months. Ultimately, it may churn around between 50-60 for potentially another year. Just saying.

          1. Pedestrian

            You already heard about them. I told you long gold and JNUG yesterday in more than one post. I was very specific about what I expect and wrote in detail on golds movements and technical pattern and precisely why I was short term bullish.

            You just don’t pay attention because your mind is already sealed tight.

          1. Pedestrian

            Are you? Then tell me why LABD volume has been falling all of September if its such a great bet. I suppose you are a lot smarter than Mr Market though. But you go girl. When I buy it will be from the bottom, not just part way down.

            Meanwhile I am sure you didn’t see that LABD is backtesting the decline with the small rise you saw today. Look at a 6 month chart and check for yourself. When this is down its going to be underwater for you and I will bet that starts by tomorrow.

            Happy trading. You deserve it!

  8. JJHarmen

    Geez, Ped, I cant seem to find where you said you actual bought JNUG yesterday so it was just speculation. You don`t want to be held accountable for your multitude of failed speculations so you can hardly expect to be given credit if one of your guesses works out.

    1. Pedestrian

      I don’t report trades here and am not in the contest. No timing signals offered either. Don’t wait for entries or exits since I am not giving them away free. I also don’t pound my chest about wins or do any Monday morning Quarterbacking. If you can’t figure out what these comments below are about you are probably as brain-dead as I suspected all along. Possibly even more than Don. But here they are to refresh your memory:
      ——————————–
      Pedestrian
      September 10, 2017

      “Should be getting a gold bounce just about anytime now. Looking for a reversal (back up) in JNUG naturally. Gold has still not met my upside target which is that it must exceed 1366 so its still game on until that happens and I expect miners will play along with the direction as we slowly work our way to the finish line”.

      “Gold is still bullish. Tomorrow should be a fine day for JNUG and NUGT”

      “My money is on gold breaking out and holding above 1266 and I have an estimated target top on a closing basis of 1269 to1275 before we turn back down and finally get this long awaited correction going. So a small but significant newer high.”

      “It’s not over yet. Long gold tomorrow”.
      —————————————–

      You might have noticed that part about “my money being on…” and realized that was a trade. Or maybe not. I might anoint you the new donkey around here since BD doesn’t want to talk to me anymore. You are obviously a troll anyway given you denied seeing all these comments yesterday.

      Or just f****** stupid.

      1. Sassybabe

        I presume that you meant that your money is on gold breaking out above 1366, not 1266. So does that mean you are short term bullish within a longer term bearish outlook for gold?

          1. Pedestrian

            Here you go BD. Something to chew on. This is a chart of an inverse silver trade called DSLV. Maybe you can tell me by the look of it if you think its going to go down a lot more, a little more or maybe its getting ready to reverse higher.
            https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=dslv

            Note to Sassy: Don’t ask me about trading anymore.

      2. JJHarmen

        No need to get foul mouthed, little man. You make enough predictions and sooner or later a few will become true. Your target of 1366 sounds a lot like the one you had at 1275 and then another at 1305. Any way, I am long GDX so I hope you get lucky on this latest guess.

        1. Pedestrian

          Both targets were valid resistance levels until price went through them. Calling a resistance level is NOT the same thing as trading it though. As a matter of fact I was early making the call for a cyclical downturn and did not buy at either level. Since then however I have made a revision to my charting and located the error in how I assessed the trade. This was a good exercise as far as I was concerned as I made a technical discovery in the process I had never noticed before. I doubt I will miss the third time.

          1. Pedestrian

            By the way JJ, you are underwater on your LABD trade at end of day. Pretty much exactly as predicted. You entered too early. Notice it broke below the rising channel in the process? That’s a big negative. Your are looking for a bottom below 5 dollars now.

  9. Nada

    As expected, the WSJ and a cup of coffee is all you need. The flows trump the technicals once again. Are we just working off oversold conditions and the drop continues? I dunno, but we can not get 2 consecutive closes below the 10ema, so gold is saying “THE TOP IS NOT IN”.

    Gold rises into FOMC? A real possibility. I am hedged with GDXJ calls, but I really want out of short GLD. Its a wounded animal right now, beware. I am waiting for the close, but I may cut the 124 puts. The goldbugs are re-engergized with the move above the 10ema.

    1. Christian

      Not sure what you’re looking at Nada but there is no move above the 10DMA. This is just a re-test. Gold needs to CLOSE above the 10DMA with conviction for it to be considered anything other than a bounce back.

      1. Nada

        The resilience to USDJPY this afternoon is what I find the most irritating about the price action in gold. So my annoyance is spilling over a bit into emotion vs technical. I would still like to avoid a close over the 10ema, as multiple days below should signal more downside and that the top is in.

        1. Gary Post author

          I take everything in the metals sector with a grain of salt. It’s hard to know what is real and what is bait to set up traders for a fleecing.

          Was yesterday a move to suck in shorts to be fleeced today?

          And is today’s rally another false move to get traders long to fleece them tomorrow?

    2. Pedestrian

      Agree Nada. The top is not in yet. We should start another run higher tomorrow or during the night. I am still banking on a close above the 2016 gold highs and the charts are setting up nicely for that right now.

  10. Bigdaddy

    You guys aren’t going to believe this but I just got back from my walk with Mutt and he caught a rabbit!! I never thought it possible. He didn’t hurt it though and just held it down with his paws and after a bit, let it go.

    1. Bluebellkid

      My dog would have killed it in a heartbeat. He’s a Blue Heeler and very territorial. He has killed 7 or 8 possums that have ventured into our yard looking to kill and eat my chickens, he has caught and killed a half grown cat, a rabbit that got out from my neighbors cages and two squirrels. His motto is “get off my lawn”.

      1. victor

        lucky you to have “such a doggy” … my daughter keep two cats instead… ) :
        has to install a door to prevent cats come to my territory, but they able to find the way to get in anyway…

    1. Nada

      Yeah, sort of another mind*uck. The BOW for GDX was 391 million yesterday. No selling today on GDX (so far, final print is not out yet). But we did have the -127m on GDXJ. The SPY SOS is insignificant at 83m – Thats lunch money for the bankers.

        1. Pedestrian

          Agree Nada. The metals bounce continues. At this moment we are already up 10 dollars from todays low of 1328. I hate to say it but the 2016 high is magnetic and the bulls are going to keep buying until we get there. I think we might be seeing some distribution here though as speculators get increasingly long gold shares.

  11. Nada

    LOL, what a POS. Closed above 10ma too at the last minute. And now correlation with yen is gone, WTF. Wounded animal is putting it mildly. It wants to gill the gap.

  12. Nada

    Gary, so this sort of matches what you outlined in your video correct – a bounce up (but not new highs) and then a failed daily cycle and a move into ICL? By looking at technicals and flows, it seems gold wants to fill gap but what happens after is the question.

    1. Gary Post author

      Basing patterns can be extremely frustrating.

      As long as GDX remains below the 10 DMA I’d assume that the DCL is still in progress.

      It will probably depend on whether the currencies are ready to turn.

      On the other hand the weekly charts for stocks look good, and in that sector one doesn’t have to worry about false moves to fleece traders. In that sector the Fed has your back.

      1. Gary Post author

        What are you referring to?

        I’m not chasing gold. As I said in the video it’s been rallying for 2 months. That’s not the time to be buying.

        Also as I noted in the video stocks have been going sideways for over a month and produced many of the signals that an ICL has been left behind. If you follow what I said in the video then the odds are better for a new trend to start in stocks instead of pressing a fairly mature trend in metals.

        And if we are about to start the vertical phase of a bubble in stocks, then you want to get on now and hold on tight for the next 6-8 months.

    2. Pedestrian

      How’s this? Yesterday TLT had its biggest inflows ever in its history which tells us the market is still leaning to deflation and lower rates. Sentiment trader who track the fund claim that such large inflows usually result in large bond gains many months later. So someone (or many someones) are likely betting on an equity rout, falling interest rates and capital is flowing to traditional safe harbors (exit from stock market).

      So here is the fun part. Look at these two charts I will link. Put them both on the screen side by side and then flip back and forth between them. Can you really tell the difference? One is the 10 year treasury (bond proxy) and the other is Yen/USD (gold proxy). I will put the links in a follow up post to avoid this being sent to moderation.

      If Everything’s So Awesome, Why Did This Happen Yesterday? — Zerohedge
      http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-12/if-everythings-so-awesome-why-did-happen-yesterday

      1. Nada

        Hey PED.. Food for thought. 131m showed up on BOW for TLT yesterday. That is not a very large amount in comparison to what zerohedge is citing. I didn’t read the entire article, did he list of source for the inflows? If they were from darkpools zerohedge or WSJ should not have tracked them accurately.

        1. Pedestrian

          The article refers to 150 million inflows a day for one week and the chart is a weekly so BOW would not align as its only a single day snapshot. I thought this was worth taking note of though since the implication is gold might see a considerable rise some 6 to 12 months in the future if what Sentiment Trader says is valid. That would line up with my own version of events which calls for a sharp gold decline into end of this year followed by a bullish turn upwards sometime in early 2018.

  13. optimal

    Gary,

    Looking to go all in for the long term with miners. If you are correct, then after this down leg will that be good time for a very long term entry into miners? Thanks.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think so. But be patient. If the dollar is starting an intermediate degree rally then it could be late October or even November before the bottom is struck.

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