104 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – 3X ETF’s

    1. vin

      If Gary is right and there is no VERY large decline for year and the nasdaq doubles, triples or quadruples, one can make money with tqq beyond one’s imagination. See my riposted comments below.

      1. Gary Post author

        Never buy options on the 3X ETF’s. It’s a suckers bet. The extra volatility is already priced into the option. You will make as much or more just buying calls on QQQ.

        And the spreads and liquidity is terrible in these things.

  1. vin

    I repeat:

    3X (or even 2X) are a dangerous play and should not be owned as a speculative play unless one is sure that the market is headed up without a any major decline.

    BTW theoretically speaking if everything works in one’s favor, one can do better than 3 times with 3X investments because of the effect of compounding.

    And, on the negative side one can lose money with 3X while the X actually goes up.

    It is as tricky as that. But, it as an excellent daily trading tool, probably one of the best, much better than futures or options.

  2. vin

    My response to sheena:

    sheena, I don’t remember your name from old days. But you are right. I am also one of those who bought it at about average price of $44.88 (i.e. 11.22 before the split).

    However, the game is not over yet. It could very well go to $2000 as prophesied by Gary. As you can see Gary has a great following. So, he must be doing something right. People must have done well with his advise. What is your opinion? BTW do you still own jnug?

    Triple leverage is a tricky play. It only works when the ascend as started with no large downturn. I did warn of its dangers with actual examples.

    If market goes up in a zig zag way, one can lose money in 3X while the market has actually gone up. The trick is to determine the time when the market has started to go up without a major decline during a certain period.

  3. Goild

    dboz,

    I have been following WEAT and this morning I was about to get in.
    But the very low volume makes me hesitate.
    I hope you see clarity and make big bucks.

  4. WYSIWYGN

    Armstrong on gold:
    https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/is-gold-still-relevant/
    My doubts:
    1/ Why then has Germany repatriated its bullion?
    2/ The last time I saw my nephew (20) he wasn’t talking about his usual girls-&-booze-things, but just, out of the blue, said he followed the price of gold almost daily and knew it was around 1250 usd.
    Or was that a shoeshiner’s moment? 😉 (when the shoeshiner talks about stocks, SELL)

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m giving you really good advice about not shorting during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle. If you will heed that advice you will end up with a lot more money in your account at the end of your trading career then if you ignore it.

  5. Gary Post author

    Notice the 50% drawdown in TQQQ during the 7 YCL.

    How many people would have been able to hang on through that in real time?

    Almost no one. Then look at what you would have missed.

    So I’m getting pretty tired of listening to people complain about JUNG. The only problem is that these people don’t have the patience to let the trade finish. By the time the bubble in gold is over anyone who bought and hung on to JNUG at $23 will be a multi millionaire.

    1. Pedestrian

      Traders will be back from vacation on September 5th. Wall Street hates gold and loves the stock market. The set up now is that gold is high and stocks are in a corrective low so this year should be like many others before it. The boyz will immediately start driving gold down and bidding up stocks. That’s what they do best and that’s where the biggest commissions are paid as inflows from pension funds demand stock ownership, not the nearly dead class of precious metals. Sorry to hear you sold at a loss Sassy. Maybe it was a risk but investing is all about risk versus reward. The higher-high on gold today was only a reversal candle getting posted btw and I think it warns of a sharp sell off in metals that is now impending.

      Lets see what Tuesday brings.

      1. JJHarmen

        That’s funny, Gary said much the same thing about the traders buying when they get back from vacation. September should be a good time to buy stocks then. Right Ped?

    1. Gary Post author

      Or if the dollar is only making a half cycle low then the metals could rally for another 2-3 weeks and you would end up losing a lot of money….

      I suspect everyone knows I’m right about trying to short the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle but many just can’t resist trying.

      Like a moth to the flame…

        1. Gary Post author

          During the declining phase of the intermediate cycle. I still didn’t make any money.

          Like I’ve said before: It’s tough to make money on the short side. Markets go down differently than they go up.

          1. Nada

            Oh I know, I am just saying don’t get all sanctimonious on us with the “Like a moth to the flame…” when you do it yourself 🙂

          2. Gary Post author

            I only try to short during the declining phase, never during the advancing phase. And most of the time I don’t even bother then. It’s just too hard to make money on the short side.

    2. Nada

      I have said a few times that I agree with Gary and that I would wait for the DCL. I like making money on the short side of gold, so I am rolling the dice. I certainly could be wrong, but we both agree Herman, that if you want to short, its a good spot.

  6. Americano

    THANK YOU Gary!!!!! Every 3x etf post comes with commenters going on about decay. There is a myriad of info on the web that uses specific criteria ( not overarching vague criteria) that refutes this or minimizes the risk factor to fit actual reality vs theoretical doom porn.
    TQQQ ( as I refer to it on the subscriber site the ” Dream Machine ” ) is THE vehicle to take advantage of Gary’s foresight as to where this thing is going.
    Especially for gold bugs still “suspicious” about the internet who would never just duh…..buy Bitcoin ! They can call up their broker…..probably via rotary phone. Old School yo !

    1. Gary Post author

      I would be very very careful with bitcoin. It’s showing all the signs of being in the advance stage of a bubble.

      The only way to profit from a bubble is to at some point just decide you’ve made enough and get out. Then stay out or you will get caught when the bubble pops.

  7. Spanky

    Hindsight is beautiful isn’t it Gary? The problem with your buy and hold 3x ETFs scenario is you will never know for certain when the bull market is over or heaven forbid something unforeseen happens and your investment thesis is no longer valid. (For example, the first major mining company to be nationalized could devastate the sector.). There are no margin calls with these vehicles. Stops can be gapped below. There is also a massive difference between the way mining stocks move and conventional stocks move. Conventional stocks tend to move much more linearly and gradually while mining stock tend to rocket up over a few months and can then chop around sideways for years and can entail massive retracements.

    Buying and holding a 3x ETF is a quaint notion, but only if you know how a trend is going to unfold in terms of price and time, know when the trend is over, and that your thesis will remain valid.

    You should put your own money where your mouth is if you are going to persist in enticing retail investors to buy and hold 3x ETFs. I’m sure you are one of the few that has the balls to hold through the drawdowns, right???

      1. Gary Post author

        Just holding until the weekly charts cycle back up to overbought.

        That is the best chance to get out with a small loss, break even or maybe a small gain.

        I don’t like selling into oversold conditions.

    1. Gary Post author

      That is the conundrum. It requires belief in the fundamentals driving a bull market.

      So it is a bit of a leap of faith.

      If you are right about the bull and can hold until close to the end then you can make an obscene amount of money going Old Turkey with a 3X fund.

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m not sure what you are talking about but here are the fundamentals as I see them driving the stock market and metals.

          The Fed has kept interest rates too low for too long again. On top of that they have printed trillions of dollars. The last two times they did this it created a series of bubbles. So unless the fabric of the universe has somehow changed I’m assuming they are going to get the same result this time as well.

          The fundamentals are exactly the same for gold. So once all that liquidity starts coming out of the stock market when the bubble pops it is going to have to go somewhere. I anticipate that it will go into the commodity markets just like it did when the last bubble popped in 2007. That will drive the bubble in gold.

          1. Spanky

            So then put all of your own money into ERX and JNUG and just hold. Let us know when the bull market is over. You have said yourself that the odds of beating old turkey by trading is slim and none.

          2. Gary Post author

            I have no idea what you’re talking about. I’m about as heavily loaded as I have ever been in my life in stock market long positions.

          3. Spanky

            And you are buying and HOLDING 3x ETFs in your own account? You aren’t going to sell until just before the bubble pops? Lol.

          4. Gary Post author

            How many times must I repeat this? The place to be right now is the stock market. Most or all of one’s capital will probably be best served in that sector. If you want to play a little money in the metals or energy portfolio make sure it’s no more than 20% probably no more than 10% is better for energy as it appears to be stuck in a difficult trading range. I’ve been taking my own advice for months now and focusing all of my capital on stock market trades.

  8. Americano

    Thanks Gary. This is only area I go my own way with vs your teachings. I don’t think Bitcoin has ……started……bubble yet. Think a correction in 6Ks to high 4Ks then $16K before September 2018.
    This guy predicted both prior bubbles in Bitcoin + their collapse. Upon last one he stated Bull to start again in May of 2017.
    Here is his chart from fall 2016. Click button to see how it has turned out thus far……..
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/MrwPhbog-Long-Term-Bitcoin-price-extrapolation/

    Here is is from May this year:
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/YRZvdurN-The-target-of-current-bubble-lays-between-40k-and-110k/

    Latest from August:
    https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/3RjQGYZp-No-resistance-till-15000-when-3500-will-break-up/

    You can go thru all his charts from previous years of BITCOIN.

  9. jacob2

    Own SILJ and GDXJ as long term buy and hold (old turkey). It’s simpler, don’t have to compete with the algo’s, watch a computer screen all day, less likely to emotionally overreact loosing my position, in short prefer getting rich slowly. Lucky I get to be an investor not a swing or day trader (A rarer bird with each passing day).

  10. dboz

    Been saying all week there is a decent chance that the markets could drop after the holiday. Not crash, but pullback. Hell, NASDAQ is up 4% since Tuesday. You think that has staying power on light volume???

  11. primetime

    The board is in full panic mode today. A lot of posters on the wrong side of trades mixed in with a little FOMO. Hell, even our post author, Gary, has his ass in the fire. Give him a break, he just got back from vacation. His calls have been pretty damn good lately! Otherwise, if there are any other Americans here, enjoy the long holiday weekend.

    And remember, very few will make any money in a bull market ’cause they will not be able to pull the trigger. They wait and wait and wait for that last pullback.

    “Caveman (old turkey) Neanderthal” OUT!

  12. Pedestrian

    Hmm, this thread has been running for hours already and still no sign of JJHarmen or Cardio. Maybe we are lucky and those two worthless trolls have finally been banned for good after causing endless bickering on the site with their constant negativity and attacks on everyone. If so, well done Gary. What a waste of time reading their distracting garbage every day.

  13. Gary Post author

    The weekly charts look good. Not stretched above the 10 week moving average yet and intermediate sentiment has a long long way to go before we get too bullish.

    Just what I would expect to kick off the vertical phase of the bubble.

    1. Gary Post author

      The poor saps that sold and or cancelled their subscriptions over the last couple of weeks have again managed to miss the reward.

      Folks investing is mostly a waiting game. The few that can master the art of patience will make money. Those that can never make that leap will always miss the reward.

  14. Sassybabe

    I did a lot of reading last night of comments going back to the beginning of the year, something I should have done before placing my faith in someone just because they talked like a winner and with confidence. How foolish of me. In my defence, I was not aware that past comments were archived.
    There is no doubt that Mr. Pedestrian has made a lot of very wrong predictions. It also became clear he is not the nice man he pretends to be. Very vindictive, in fact.
    I wish I had been more careful about who to pay attention to. The lesson has cost me and I deserve it for being so naive. Live and learn.

    1. JJHarmen

      Sassy, It is a shame you had to lose money and I feel for you. Perhaps you will do better on another trade. Pedestrian never used to bother me but now he really gets on my nerves and I cannot contain my self any longer. He is just so full of shit. Another guy used to keep him in line but he’s gone now so somebody has to challenge Ped’s bad analysis.
      Ped has been bad mouthing gold and the miners for as long as I have been on this blog. He always sounds very authoritative as if he was some sort of expert. He doesn’t even know how to read charts properly. People such as yourself , get sucked in. not knowing any better.
      His latest pile of crap: September is a good time to buy stocks because the traders are back from vacation and they buy. What??? Sassy, do some research on the SM and the month of September.

      1. Gary Post author

        Actually the month of September or October or August is irrelevant. Any of them can be great times to buy stocks. What matters is where the ICL occurs. It can come anywhere from July to November. Once the ICL is finished then it’s a great time to buy stocks.

        The ICL just came and went.

        1. JJHarmen

          So, all the market declines that have occurred in September over the last 75 years (vs the other months) have just been a coincidence of timing with respect to ICLs? I find that hard to believe.
          You are ALWAYS calling a cycle stretched or cut short (by the PPT), so what makes you think it can’t happen again?

          1. Gary Post author

            Absolutely. Seasonality is meaningless. It is all dependent on when the summer/fall ICL occurs. If it occurs in October then September is a very bad time to buy.

            If it occurs in August then September is a very good time to buy.

            It just occurred. So this year September is a good time to buy.

            Next year may be a very different story.

      2. JJHarmen

        Sassy, one more thing, The gold miners are doing very well as is gold and silver, in fact, better than the S&P . It’s probably not too late to consider going long. They were in a bear market for a very long time and maybe it’s their turn for a run. The charts are looking good. I see GDX hitting $30 in the not too distant future.

        1. Pedestrian

          I can honestly say JJHarmen that I have never read a post from you that had any content of any value whatsoever. Neither for or against any aspect of the market. Zero analysis. Just criticism and complaints about everyone else here.

          You are one of the fools still holding miners since the top though. Get over it and man up. You made the bad decisions to hold so stop dumping your problems on everyone else on the board.

    2. Pedestrian

      Another blamer. You didn’t learn anything at all Sassy. Best you go join Lena Powpow in the knitting club and stick to making happy face doilies because trading isn’t going to be for you given what you just wrote. Pathetic!

  15. dboz

    Gary, it will be interesting to see IF the miners pull back at all here should gold come down to retest/backtest the down trend line. At this point I will consider it lucky and will let too many board the train. So, I am becoming more skeptical of any big pullbacks.

  16. Goild

    Become a day trader, sleep well, and have nice weekends.
    This week has been good with +$8K.
    Focus, get into discipline, become patient, trade well, and get the miners riches.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    Stock market has been behaving as expected and documented last week in my only 2 posts in Aug (last on Aug24): broad indexes have confirmed their new DC while Transports had set HCL on Aug24.
    Now they have to roll over!

    I closed my long stocks position while being entranched in short EURUSD and planning on building to a full short EUR position at 1.1821 – swing high.

  18. deak

    Gary, you say the gold bull started at the 2016 low rt? the drawdown so far on JNUG is from $132 high to $15, who the hell would be that stupid to hang on, it’s trading vehicle only, stop with the nonsense.

    1. Gary Post author

      There is no drawdown on JNUG from the 2016 low. It is currently up 187%.

      Like I said it won’t be easy, and 99.9% have no chance of reaching the end because it would take a lot more patience than any of you could ever hope to learn, but by the time the bubble phase in gold is over JNUG will easily be above $500 and probably above $1000 even split adjusted.

      But how many of you can sit through the drawdowns and periods of sideways action, or the givebacks after big moves? The answer of course is none of you.

      But if anyone could muster that kind of discipline they would earn millions.

      1. KHT

        Position size/account size has a lot to do with hunkering down during draw downs with 3xETFS.

        Betting the farm on a trade usually ends up with some one else owning your farm.

        1. Gary Post author

          It absolutely takes nerves of steel to weather the huge drawdowns that come with this kind of all or nothing bet.

          Almost no one can do it. During periods when the trades is going sideways or giving back huge chunks of the gains you see other people making money on something else and your emotions win out and you bail. You can’t stand to watch others making money while your watching your account dwindle by 50-75% during a hard pullback.

  19. JJHarmen

    Many believe the miners have been under performing and the stock market has been the place to be. Not true. YTD, GDX +18.5% SPY +10.9%. I am happy with my GDX.

  20. vrancovich

    Gold has managed to move up even with the yen down. these two have been moving in lockstep for a long time. I am so fed up with gold and miners acting shitty, but hopefully things change.

  21. ras

    weekly stochastics for erx pinned under 20 for several months. Tough to see any significant up move before it slides to the 17 area. Nothing goes straight down. There could be minor bounces.

  22. Ragnar

    Staying on sidelines with cash (USD) for now.
    Despite weak job report and other disappointing data, USD remained relatively strong.
    When that happens, I prefer to stay in cash (USD).
    No stocks, no PM (miners), no other currencies for me… Keeping powder dry.

  23. bginvestor

    For the beginners , or intermediates .. 3X ‘s can really fuck you up, its a tool that needs to be used carefully..

    Gary is the only one that I know that advocates staying in a 3X’s for many, many months! You better know what the fuck your doing OR there is high probability to blow up your account!

    Yeah, it looks like a bull market, but doesn’t have to be.. going old turkey in 3X’s is considered irresponsible and usually stupid based on feedback from a lot of experienced traders..

    GARY – your ERX 3X trade is still under water for months , and yet your pushing metal 3X’s? WTF! You now say that your risking risk from a position management perspective, we’ll see.

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe you need to read what I said again. It’s not going to be easy to ride the kind of massive volatility that will be thrown at you in a 3X ETF’s Almost no one will be able to do it. But it’s pretty clear that holding one of these for the life of a bull and especially through a bubble phase is the way to make undreamed of riches.

      I’m not advocating anyone do it. If you can’t survive the big drawdowns and long periods of watching your gains fade away then all you will accomplish is to wreck your portfolio because you won’t be able to hang on long enough to score the big gains.

        1. Gary Post author

          Let’s say I’m right and gold does produce a bubble over the next 3-5 years. Let’s say someone is willing to risk $10,000 on the Old Turkey strategy in JNUG. And $10,000 turns into 400,000-500,000.

          Were they fucking stupid, or fucking brilliant?

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