166 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – Breakout Imminent?

  1. Pedestrian

    Good call Gary. Looks to me that this year ending in a 7 is going to buck the trend and not deliver the market crash (correction) that too many people are expecting. Figures doesn’t it. When the case is so cut and dried (all years ending in a 7 deliver downers) it is almost a guarantee it won’t deliver. Anyway, gold and silver are consolidating around their respective tops. It’s metals that will correct during the fall months, not stock markets. And with the Nikkei also breaking above its falling channel in the past two days the case for gold has weakened (Nikkei up, yen down and bye bye gold).

    Nice charts btw.

    1. vin

      Thank you Pedestrian. Now that the two most smartest minds known, that is Gary and yourself, have agreed, it is about to get out of the SM even if temporarily.

      I now sell all my leveraged positions to buy them back at a later stage, hopefully in about seven weeks or so.

      I must say your record is perfect in the sense that you are the best indicator on this site.

      Thanks again.

        1. Pedestrian

          Comedian. You guys never give up do you. Hey Vin, I am not making a call on the stock market if you read my post carefully. I don’t follow the indices with as much energy as I put into metals markets. But I will tell you this….if gold is going to make a major corrective move down then it means almost by definition that stock markets will rise (provided the Nikkei keeps its solid correlation with US and European indices).

          If you don’t understand that you should not be trading your own money.

          1. vin

            “If you don’t understand that you should not be trading your own money.”…..

            O Man, you are something else. Though I do want to thank you for your advise. I would love to hire a smart arse if I had too much dough and were willing to lose consistently.

            I also like your mumbo jambo …. NEVER make a commitment so that you win with the head and don’t lose with the tail. Those are VERY old tricks, my friend. So save your breath. But, you are no different any other giniass who pretends to be consistently right while being always wrong. LOL! But then thanks for the entertainment. It is worth something. Ain’t it?

          2. vin

            “You must be confused. I don’t have subscribers here and don’t owe you squat.”……. that is best argument I have heard from you so far.

            So you can blab all the nonsense and not be held responsible? I guess why not? Other very smart ones do it all the time.

            On a more serious not. As I said today I got out of all my leverage SM positions. What do you think? Or, are you going to be noncommittal as always because “You must be confused. I don’t have subscribers here and don’t owe you squat.”

          3. Pedestrian

            Yes, I can blab all I want. Free world buddy. You want trading tips? Then get a subscription from Gary. I’m not in the advice business.

          4. vin

            “Yes, I can blab all I want. Free world buddy. You want trading tips? Then get a subscription from Gary. I’m not in the advice business.” ….. I like that. I like honesty.

            You made my day. You really are an expert with so much wisdom. Keep it up. You have my vote, my friend. But, don’t get uptight. You are always wrong, so what?

          5. vin

            “Seriously Vin. I don’t give a shit what you buy or sell. It’s your money.” ….

            hihihi

            As I said I really appreciate honesty.

            BUT, you are wrong again. It is NOT my money? Your problem is you make too many illogical assumptions and then get attached to them as facts. Even that is fine as long as you don’t get upset. Keep your balance, my friend. You write crape all the while on this forum. So, what? It is a free world buddy. Isn’t it?

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold is very overdue for at least a daily cycle correction.

      Once that is finished then gold could possibly rally again to test 1400, but that probably depends on whether the dollar continues to fall.

          1. vin

            That is how it looks. Doesn’t it? But, the problem is that they can sell before we know that they bought it.

            Like you I am not bearish on gold at this point. I think it will reach 1400 before we see any significant pullback, even then.

  2. Nada

    Gold continues to not give a rats ass about cycles. How stretched is the cycle now? Oh that’s right, 46 days and still no clear DCL.

    Anyway, we still have our flows showing us where gold is going. GLD etf buyer and GDX buyer long and strong. Up into FOMC and then a nice spiker to take out 2016 high.. then maybe a DCL?

      1. Gary Post author

        I would disagree. The drop into Aug. 8 wasn’t deep enough or long enough to turn the 10 day moving average down. That was a half cycle low.

        Sometimes cycles just stretch really long. Probably because the currency cycles are being warped and stretched.

        1. Christian

          Hence why I asked a very poignant question the other day: If cycles continue to stretch and charts continue to morph how does one stay one step ahead of the market using the tools we’ve grown accustomed to?

          The answer I got was (much to my chagrin) a waste of a sentence.. but the reason I brought it up in the first place was because YOU are always telling your flock of Goombas to ANTICIPATE the market haha!

          GARY, I ask again — How the F* do you do that when shit don’t work no more buddy??!

          1. Gary Post author

            That one is easy.

            I adapt as quickly as possible. When the market changes and my tools stop working I try different tools or move to different markets.

            The currency cycles are being warped by central bank interventions. I will no longer even attempt to trade those markets.

            This is also stretching the metals market. Instead of stubbornly insisting that the old cycle timing bands should work I recognized quickly that the metal cycles have evolved along with the currency markets. I no longer expect 18-28 day cycles. Now I plan for 35-45 day cycles. And even 55 days isn’t as absurd as it once would have been.

          2. Christian

            So you adapt and try to find a different working combination of tools, like adding one more ingredient to your secret sauce — me likes 😉

      2. Nada

        Yes I made mention of chartfreaks second daily cycle theory about 3 weeks ago. However, the trendline was never broken and even on day 34 it was only tagged. Very confusing.

  3. Gary Post author

    The bubble in bitcoin may be popping. Down 25% in a matter of days.

    If so then it should lose 75-90% of it’s value from the high of $5000.

    Target $500-$1250.

    No matter what one thinks the fundamentals are when the signs of a bubble are clear you have to throw away fundamentals and recognize that at some point the last buyer is going to buy and then a massive profit taking event will occur. Depending on how far above the mean price is it will snowball as more and more people watch their profits go up in smoke and sell in a panic.

    The only protection is to at some point just be satisfied and get out. Then stay out so you don’t get caught in the crash. Unfortunately during a bubble almost no one is able to control their greed and they always stay too long and get caught.

    It’s going to be even more difficult in bitcoin because it’s not easy to cash out.

    1. Pedestrian

      Gary, this is not even the third inning with Bitcoin. What we are seeing is a HUGE buy opportunity. Price was only knocked down to let in Wall Street players who have not participated thus far and were reluctant to buy at recent highs. They want a piece of this action and a sure way to do that is kill it first and buy it second. Way too obvious Gary. We have been around long enough to know how this game works.

      1. roadrunner

        “They want a piece of this action and a sure way to do that is kill it first and buy it second. Way too obvious Gary. We have been around long enough to know how this game works.”

        well we know how it works with stocks and commodities, but please enlighten us as to how wall street will “kill” bitcoin first….this should be interesting.

        1. Gary Post author

          I also don’t see how Wall Street could control the price of bitcoin. There is no futures market to manipulate.

          I do see an asset that has all the signs of being in the final stage of a bubble though.

          More than 100% gain in a year or less.

          Stretched very far above the long term mean.

          Heavy public participation.

          1. Pedestrian

            I suppose you guys also think that the nice people at the Chinese security regulator who gave the stun-gun treatment to Bitcoin last week are really a bunch of Girl Guides doing the work of Jesus to make the world a more perfect place!

            LOL!!!

            Get a grip boys. When Jamie Dimon says Bitcoin is trash that’s your buy signal following the expected instantaneous decline. His words crushed price even more than those uttered out of China.

            I guarantee, bitcoin is on a buy signal. Just watch.

          1. roadrunner

            Jamie dimon calling bitcoin a fraud? is that the news? seems to me most bitcoin buyers a) wouldn’t know jamie Dimon from Joe Blow and B) The people investing in bitcoin do so to escape the wall street manipulations….In fact the first thing most people say about bitcoin is it can not be manilutaed…yet you claim it can and it is.

            So again, please tell us how wall street is going to kill bitcoin

    2. Americano

      Cmon Gary. You said in past you don’t call Bitcoin cuz you don’t “follow” or trade it. Now you’re coming up with targets? Bitcoin is hard to “cash out”????!
      Cashing out 6-7 figures can be done WITHOUT keeping your Bitcoin on an exchange & LITERALLY takes 5 minutes on a phone call. I’m a sub feel free to reach out to me so I can tell you exactly how ( totally legit otc KYC/AML). You are 100% wrong not because you are shifty or not smart but because your comment comes from a place of low conviction.

      1. Pedestrian

        The part about cryptocurrencies being the most heavily traded class of investment lately probably eluded everyone. It’s wide open to being manipulated by mere talk. Hell, maybe the Donald will weigh in and threaten to squash it, If he takes it under a thousand we could make a fortune!

        Hooray Donald

        1. Jimsee

          1320 is the ‘pattern’ number – but in these markets a 5-10 point over/under is normal for the stuff I look at for direction. a whipping action of the actual spot is the psychological action necessary to foment a change imo..

          1. Nada

            Good deal, we are looking for the same range. Yes, gold usually goes to the extremes but with this thing being so bullish, its tough to ride on short side.

  4. Gary Post author

    Ped,
    I’m going to go out on a limb and say you missed on the top call in energy.

    Oil still has to break its intermediate trend line before the larger intermediate cycle tops.

    These rounded top patterns you keep seeing aren’t really rounded tops. They are just intermediate degree corrections.

    Rounded tops form after long bull markets. Both gold and energy are coming out of bear market bottoms not forming a bull market top.

    1. Pedestrian

      I didn’t make a top call in oil Gary. Not sure if you are talking to me or someone else. All I said was I don’t see the excitement in oil. The WTI chart looks terrible to me. But your ERX bounce today only takes price back up to what I see as resistance. Lets see what the next few days bring before calling this a win.

      1. Gary Post author

        “I just cannot for the life of me see the bullish case for crude oil. Maybe I am blind to the obvious but the WTI and Brent daily charts look depressing to dismal as price rolls over in an obvious dome pattern. This is why ERX has not got much hope even as it hits a top today.”

        That seems like a top call to me…

    1. Pedestrian

      It is possible the chart just ran out of time. The euro is hanging by a thread. Only a few pips lower and that will be a technical break down and signal the euro and dollar should be on the thresh-hold of an important reversal. If we get there today that’s probably all she wrote and we won’t get that higher-high that I was expecting on gold. Recall that gold must break above 2016’s closing high of 1366 to turn the pattern bullish in the coming months. Should we NOT exceed that number then I’m sorry to say but the decline that follows will be steeper than expected and the next high will come in lower many months from now.

    2. Nada

      Lets hope so. I closed my GDXJ calls at break even from the yesterday buy. I was going to use them as hedge, but after the SOS yesterday, why bother. I think the DCL will be very shallow, but I am already too leveraged in puts.

    3. Christian

      I did warn everyone that Momentum was clearly in favour of more downside and that buying Miners for a swing trade at this juncture was a risk not worth taking…

    1. Pedestrian

      Holy shit!

      Is that a compliment? I don’t see many of those around this site. Can we talk about that instead! LOL!!!!

      Anyway, yes I was correct on copper on the second try. I made revisions to my charting method and so far its coming up roses. Still struggling with the element of time though. Everything about technical charting boils down to two major elements which are time and price.

      Price seems to be easier to get and that’s why we see so many guys making calls that are good but typically far too early. Case in point are two recent stories we read about well known traders blowing calls on a China currency trade. They saw the opportunity and will no doubt be correct eventually but were unable to understand the variables that caused the trade to be delayed for so long.

      Years in their case.

      Luckily didn’t have so long to wait and exited TECK which was at risk (down 11% in two days). You had probably best avoid FCX for the time being. Copper has a brutal fall ahead with a first stop around 2.10 but it could go lower. Bad news for stock markets if this is signaling recession.

      But more pointedly, I think this is telling us the dollar will indeed reverse now. Remember that the dollar trades inverse to commodities so copper can be an early warning sign and crude will also feel the heat. The huge run up in copper during 2017 happened at the expense of a falling dollar and now that trade is going to go the other way.

      So watch out for falling gold, silver, platinum on a cyclical basis. It should be a steep fall. Deeper than most suspect. I have it pegged for 1108 but that is just an eyeball estimate. The time to get out has probably arrived.

  5. jacob2

    Oil, for two days in a row it’s up, a new record. Beginning of a trend change? Actually read a non bearish article onoil this A.M. , nobodys long , yet. May have actually bought the major lows. Oil, Buy and hold.

        1. Pedestrian

          There was a failed backtest on gold at 1340 and then price dropped which happened right around the time the euro broke down. secondly, Yen broke below its August 31st low which I see as quite bearish. Notice too the steepness of the decline on both gold and yen. We shall see how it shakes out. If I get my arse kicked you can have a good laugh at my expense later.

          1. JJHarmen

            Don’t worry about it Ped, you don’t provide entry or exit points so if the trade goes against you, then just pick a favorable price and say you got out. Hell, you might even be able to claim you made money.

        2. Christian

          No no no sweatheart I want to know what YOU are specifically using.. If you want any kind of credibility on this forum then you’re gonna have to grow a pair and post your trade, or else get the F*ck out of the kitchen..!

  6. Bigdaddy

    If Pedo is going short gold then it must be a good time to get back in. I practice what i preach which is to do the opposite of what Pedo calls, I just bought a junior gold ETF. I am no longer providing what it is i am buying or price so that Pedo cannot do his troll thing.

  7. JJHarmen

    Pedestrian, when are you going to tell us you made money on JNUG ? Did you forget about telling us you were long? It’s not like you to not to tell us about your clever trading skills. It’s down big today so you better tie up that loose end,

  8. Sassybabe

    Now I am really confused. Yesterday, I asked you (Pedestrian) if you were short term bullish on gold because you had made this statement :

    Pedestrian
    September 12, 2017 at 11:04 am
    You already heard about them. I told you long gold and JNUG yesterday in more than one post. I was very specific about what I expect and wrote in detail on golds movements and technical pattern and precisely why I was short term bullish.

    To my inquiry, you responded “yes”.

    Today, you are buying: JDST, DSLV, DGLD, DUST.

    I don’t think I misunderstood you. You were pretty clear your expectations for gold to reach the 1366 level. So why in the earth would go short today and in such a big way? It makes no sense! What kind of game are you playing here with everyone?

      1. Pedestrian

        Nobody does what I say. Don’t you read the threads? I am a contrary indicator according to several posters here and nobody has ever defended me. Anyway, its up to you guys to do your own technicals. I am not here to hold hands and please keep in mind I make mistakes like everyone else. I missed two calls on gold for example that breached strong resistance levels I was pretty sure were going to hold. They failed and I took a LOT of heat for that. If you are curious I am looking for a pullback in JDST now for an entry that I hope comes today. What I am betting on here is that the dollar starts to rise and will send gold down. For better or for worse. We will see what the rest of the day brings.

  9. victor

    “Gary Post author
    I adapt as quickly as possible. When the market changes and my tools stop working I try different tools or move to different markets. ”
    That’s what many who blaming you like ” you said this 2month ago but now saying another …” can not grasp. Adapting is so important in todays computerized market. Wall St able to read market participants buy/sell in a seconds and acting accordingly.
    By relying only on old tools/methods we destined to underperform.

    1. Pedestrian

      Well said Victor. Seems too few appreciate the idea of change and want everyone to be held to their call as if it was a solemn promise written in blood. So we get abuse for changing as if a crime were commit. Its hilarious if it were not so stupid. I mean cripes, this is a free public blog written by anonymous participants who kick around ideas. Nobody owes anybody any favors here.

  10. SLEP

    When I look at the big picture, the charts and wave structure of gold and silver tell me that silver is going to 13-14 and gold to 1,000-1,050, and then a wave up, and finally a wave down to 10 or lower for silver and 950 or lower for gold before the bear market for both silver and gold terminate and a new bull market begins.

  11. Pedestrian

    Time for a new thread Gary. The natives want guidance. Maybe a subscription offer since you sold gold at the top. A couple people here are making me tired. Think I’m done posting today. They obviously have you and I confused with each other.

  12. Jimsee

    The Yen is making the fundamental indicator complex start to tilt bearish for gold imo – the perfect setup is a run to whip a new rally high followed by a real reversal to 1240 or less.

  13. Nada

    To be clear, I think we had our DCL today. As I stated above, I sold my puts and I opened GLD 125 calls for Nov 17th. If we break below 1320 on spot gold, I may exit the calls as we might retrace to the 1260-1270 fib region mentioned last week or so.

    Gold has been a MONSTER to short. I made a nice chunk of change last week in shorts – I had to *continuously* average down while gold made its climb. I had over 20k in options on the table. It was BRUTAL to hold and a hellish mistake. I should of opened calls as a hedge and waited for the swing high and then went heavy with my averaging down. This was a valuable lesson. It worked out and I made 25% in profit, but it was a SHIT trade.

    I will sleep like a BABY in my calls tonight.

    1. MagnuM

      I don’t think the DC trendline has been broken yet to call a DCL. Maybe the $1,306 – $1,300 range maybe? Either way, you’re probably close enough scaling in with some longs.

  14. Kenny

    I love this site. The daily discourse between the various personalities is far more entertaining than watching Coronation Street. However, one big negative is the impersonation of one character by another. I tried to bring it to the attention of other bloggers that they were being mislead and do so without naming directly the personality. A few caught on but others still think they are dealing with two different people. Therefore, I will be very clear.

    Based on writing style, the use of common phrases, and undue attention given by the author to a contentious character who is almost takes opposing views of the author, it is my professional opinion that there is a 90% probability that Pedestrian and Gary are the same person.

  15. Bigdaddy

    Ken: That figures and i have been suspicious. I have been wearing out my keyboard warning people about Pedo. He’s a tricky SOB. Need to think hard about this. Taking Mutt for his walk.

  16. Alexandru Popovici

    CAUTION: Bullish signs for gold/yen/treasuries & bearish for SM from now on:

    We have:
    – EURJPY has a very bearish COT+technicals –> looks like it toped today at 132 –> ANY ENSUING FALL WOULD IMPLY RISING JPY, HENCE BULLISH GOLD,
    – bearish divergences of NYSE with McLellan and of Russell with its oscillators,
    – all defensives and EUR have confirmed and retraced fib-38 (except gold) in their current DC,
    – SKEW at 140 and low VIX.
    – rising defensives allign with the observation of falling SM after FOMC through mid Oct.

    1. JJHarmen

      I have been convinced for some time (thx Kenny) that Pedestrian and Gary are one and the same. Yesterday, Ped used the phrase “just like I predicted”, a favorite Gary uses extensively. Bingo!
      I thought for a while the Zkotpen was created by Ped so he would have a least one person praising him but the grammar and language were completely different.

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    …furthermore, the IC of EURJPY is right-translated and pretty late (on week 21) so that the IC decline will have to be pretty steep and short-lived (one left-translated DC after the current one ends and most likely also fails despite its right-translation with a top on day 18 today).

    This alligns well with:
    – JPY’s bullish COT and with
    – gold’s top (YCH) to occur sometime in this autumn as both EURJPY and USDJPY find their ICLs.

    1. Nada

      I am waiting to enter a short on the SPY. I don’t like trading options much with the SPY.. 1. They are expensive. 2. Theta is high. However, it is too tempting with SPX reaching a little over 2500. Alex made reference to tail risk being put on the last few days.. something to keep an eye on. I am going to take a look at VXX, you may be onto something there.

      1. JJHarmen

        Nada, I have noticed that not all sources provide the exact same quotes for SPX (as well as other for indices). What source are you using that shows SPX being over 2500 today? I am using Trading View and they are showing the high as being 2497.2.
        I also look at Investing.com and they show the high at 2496.88. Supposedly, they are using the same source for their charts as Trading View. A puzzle.

        1. Nada

          No, not over 2500. I am looking to enter SPY short when SPX is a little over 2500. Sorry if I was not clear. All my quotes are referenced from tradingview as well – but they do have a few feeds.

  18. Strike2

    My view is that GDX is now bouncing around the 38% fib retracement (24.23) from the August low to Sept high (daily chart). If this breaks we look to 50% for support (23.80). If that fails we have a more serious retracement to evaluate.

  19. Alexandru Popovici

    likewise, collating all the above data, post-FOMC we may get to an interesting situation: BOTH gold and and USX up!
    The weirdness will be driven though by a powerhouse JPY to rise faster than all currencies.
    Mind hat both EUR and GBP are toppy so that their IC declines will offset JPY’s rocket power so that USX will rise out of last week’s ICL.

  20. Alexandru Popovici

    NADA, if you want to short SM, pls allow me to suggest shorting either Russ2k or, if you like buying OTM options, then buy puts of a Japanese exporting company, such as Toyota, to catch the tailwind of a blowing yen.

  21. Alexandru Popovici

    JIMSEE, corroborating all the above plus:
    – Thursday is a statistically down day for U.S. SM, hence bullish for gold,
    – USDJPY does not have room left to rise from 110.69 –> if it reaches 111 (as I was writing yesterday while contradicting Gary on the last DCL of JPY) then we would get a failed IC, which, based on EURJPY’s bearish and JPY’s bullish COT reports simply cannot happen!
    – Asian trading provides thin trading, hence plenty of opportunity for overnight shakeout by profgessionalls to load the shiny metal!!!!!
    So I expect to see a hammer in gold tomorrow!

    1. Nada

      The cycles are so stretched that one can not tell what daily cycle we are in or if this or that was a HCL. Very confusing at this time. I see the potential for the same – a move up into FOMC and then a deeper correction.

      1. Christian

        “The cycles are so stretched that one cannot tell what daily cycle we are in..”

        Really? Actually, we’re still in the 1st DC. Nothing has changed my friend 🙂

  22. Americano

    Ped is dead on with Bitcoin & Dimon. Last time he ran his mouth it was 1000% ago in 2015. Note he also said he wouldn’t short it as it could go to $100K first. Zero need to speak about gold or silver in the same way Zsa Zsa Gabor never had to whistle for her dog as it never left her lap
    😉

  23. Lenapowich

    My two cents on the Pedestrian>Gary issue: Gary seems to be everything that Pedestrian isn’t. For example, Gary is usually respectful to others where as Pedestrian views others with complete disdain. In short, Gary seems like a decent guy whereas Pedestrian is just an ass. That said, I also have noticed a similar writing style and the use of identical phrases. They very well could be the same person.

      1. Pedestrian

        Well Victor, its like this, Trolls deliberately start fights online, distract from the topic, make false accusations, bait adversaries and create daily disruptions on a site for their own pleasure. It is relentless with a few of them who come here however in their defense I did call them gold-tards!

        Not that the title was not earned.

        These people just cannot handle another decline in metals and are incensed anytime one is suggested. Without regard to technicals or fundamentals they just want gold to go up, up and more up, thank you very much.

        That is in spite of gold being seriously overpriced, over-hyped and overbought already. But you cannot get through to them since most are underwater on trades and desperate that we all sing along in the same hymn book, dance to the same drums and chant in unison.

        Basically its brainwashing if you need to know. I am immune to it after beating the pants off them for almost 7 years straight and honestly they probably need a little break. But naawww! I kind of enjoy tormenting the poor buggers and its partly because they seem to never learn.

        What’s the lesson? Well it goes like this:

        What goes up, must come down.
        What was in a bubble already will virtually never repeat itself twice in a generation.
        All assets eventually mean-revert. That includes silver and gold.
        The market will decide the true worth of an asset. Gold bugs don’t get to decide by themselves.
        Fundamentals mean pretty much zilch in gold markets.
        Correlations to other asset classes are what determine present price.
        Gold is a very nearly a pure speculative asset having little other value to market participants.
        Gold is an asset best traded as means to take money from fools who think it still has monetary importance.
        There are enough new gold fools minted every year to make clever traders very, very wealthy.

    1. Gary Post author

      As far as I can tell, now that Sally seems to have disappeared there are no more alter egos on the blog.

      Folks, you really need to take off your tin foil hats.

  24. Alexandru Popovici

    Jimsee, I have done similarly by placing a buy-limit gold at 1319 for a pilot of a quarter of a full position.

    I must add that being short EURUSD is very risky! It may find it’s DCL tomorrow too and top on FOMC before rolling over. Post fomc, Eur going down and Jpy going up would render the steep down traction for eurjpy in the next 7 weeks.

  25. Jimsee

    trend indicator clearly in early-reversal mode now for gold…tomorrow should be key for continuation or reversal – always amazed at how dates line up with charts in so many ways.

  26. Troy

    Preface: I have no investment in Bitcoin nor ever have.

    I have been watching GBTC for the past few weeks though and thought if it gets into the 8/10-8/11 gap and tests the breakout from the long June/July consolidation then I would be interested. It has done that today and has been getting much negative press. If I had the cojones, I would have bought some today. Maybe I’ll enter the contest with some.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GBTC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p21227242940

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      Sorry but that s a very wrong chart reading.
      The chart clearly shows a high probability waterfall of the asset (USDJPY, in this case) which allignes w/ my stated expectation of a demi-bubblish JPY in the next 7 weeks or so.

  27. Gary Post author

    It’s only been 3 weeks and the ERX trade is already half way back to break even.

    Even if this is a bear market rally (I don’t think it is) it should last at least another couple of months. By the time the intermediate cycle tops we should not only get back to even, but will probably end up making a very nice gain on the trade.

    Thank goodness I don’t listen to the amateurs here that have no clue how to make money. If I had we would have ended up with a huge loss. Instead we’ll probably tally a big win.

      1. Gary Post author

        Ha, those nitwits have been riding me all the way down asking when I was going to give up and sell.

        My answer was always the same. I’ll sell when the weekly stochastics cycle back up to overbought.

        1. Pedestrian

          Well you could turn out to be right after all. The WTI chart has changed tune and is looking a bit more constructive today than yesterday. Twenty nine isn’t really that far off.

          1. Gary Post author

            I think oil will get to $60 during this cycle. XLE should at least get back to the 52 week highs. That would deliver a very nice gain in our ERX position.

            Amateur traders are unable to visualize a trend change when price is correcting, so they are never able to hold through a drawdown to let a winning trade work.

            I knew that even though I was way too early it didn’t change the fact that at some point we would get a yearly cycle low in energy and once we did there would be a very powerful rally. One that lasted at least 3-4 months. All I needed to do was wait for that rally and try to exit at the top of the rally instead of at the bottom of the YCL like the imbeciles who don’t know better did.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold still has plenty of room to fall yet before the DCL is struck. A 38% retrace is a given and 50% isn’t out of the question.

      If the dollar has found a larger degree intermediate bottom then the short cycle scenario now comes into play and we shouldn’t look for the final ICL until late October or early November. There will of course be a convincing bounce on the way down though.

      Everyone argued with me at the June top as well and I’m sure they will do so again. But the key to watch now is how the dollar behaves. If it signals that a larger degree ICL has just occurred then the metals are going to sink back into the basing pattern and the frustration will continue.

      1. Pedestrian

        There is a secondary support level the euro needs to take out to be confirmation its going to fall. That comes in around 1.1860 roughly which is just a few points lower. Almost got there today and I was nearing nirvana but so far its still holding above.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would say both are very early in new bull markets. Both will be driven by a bear market in the dollar. If I had to guess, I’d say it will be one of the most destructive bear markets in a currency ever.

      The biggest beneficiary will be gold, but all commodities will go along for the ride.

      This will be the second stage of the commodity bull that began in 2001. The first stage was led by base metals and energy. The second stage will be led by precious metals and possibly agriculture.

      The first stage was driven by emerging market demand and a world wide real estate bubble. This stage will be driven by currency destruction.

  28. Goild

    AT

    Assuming we have a bad day tomorrow, DUST can get to $23, based on the length of recent DUST candles, it would have to be a very bad day. Perhaps by Friday if gold continues diving. Tomorrow is a Thursday and it can be very bad.
    I left 1K JUNG shares on the table. And yes the scenario looks grim for the miners.
    It seems DUST wants to go to $26.
    Though an unlikely reversal for DUST to get to $21 is a possibility.

  29. Goild

    Another consideration is that gold is about to hit the lower upward trend line which can send it back hiking higher.
    A double top is also a possibility.

    It does not matter, we will make money either way. That is it.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold needs to break that trend line to confirm the move down into the DCL. It also needs to turn the 10 DMA back down.

      I’d say the 38% retracement is a given. 50% isn’t out of the question.

      If the short cycle scenario is in play then gold will retest the 200 DMA.

      I’m afraid the metals may still be stuck in the basing pattern.

  30. kinik007

    Anybody who thinks that Ped and Gary are the same person is smoking very high quality narcotics. There is absolutely nothing gained for Gary to write as two different people and much to lose. Gary has repeatedly asked people and specifically to join the contest specifically so that everyone so convinced that their analysis and trading skill is sublime has an opportunity to be and is accountable to the stuff they write on here. Ped has refused stating that he doesn’t need to prove anything. And so unless Gary has split personality disorder and/or is an excellent fiction writer there is no other explanation on why he would waste his time and choose to have conversations/debates with himself on the blog.

  31. Alexandru Popovici

    As pointed out yesterday, EURUSD bears might find themselves hit through FOMC when I expect a top at nearly 1.22.
    Maybe even USX’ IC would extend w/ a shortened eight- or nine-day DC; that depends on how quickly JPY gets the traction I expect to offset some of EUR’s last leg up in this IC.

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