141 thoughts on “GOLD – SHORT CYCLE CONFIRMED

  1. dboz

    Gary, great insight and guidance. I think your scenario going forward is very likely. I expect the same painful fall into fall as the last two years. Probably best to steer clear until then unless you can catch that bounce which should be pretty good due to the depth and crash of this move. Oversold conditions will provide relief and create the illusion we are back on track to the Moon only to get a deeper rug pull. Much appreciated info this week!

  2. dboz

    Also, I was reading a scary article on the problem with volatility. The short trade is now so everwhelming the options required to cover are something like 85k contracts. So if volatility reverses sharply from this all ti in the history of the market low is going to be large and violent. It’s a monstrously lopsided trade for too long and now considered easy money to be in XIV. Amazing the complacency of this market. There is absolutely no fear, no shorts and only massive bulls so if things do drop, there is nothing under this market right now to catch it. Not saying it’s a crash but a rapid scary drop is very likely IMO. Just no telling when. This week? Next week? Next month? Next year? Not sure but the situation has to get cleaned out. Everyone is loaded long here with zero fear of risk.

    1. Gary Post author

      Actually intermediate degree sentiment in the market is pretty much dead neutral. Just about where one would expect it to be at this point in a first daily cycle. We can rally a long ways yet before traders start to get too complacent.

      We’re going to see articles like this all the way up. This is what happens during the beginning of the vertical phase. Everyone is looking for a crash, everyone is continuously trying to pick a top. It’s the fuel to drive the runaway move. Eventually everyone starts thinking it will go on forever and we will start hearing absurd predictions of 100,000 in the Dow. Price will stretch very far above the 200 DMA and the Nasdaq will probably rally 100% or more in a year or less.

      Then we will get the final top.

  3. Steffmeister

    If we keep it simple it looks like a retest of 1300 a big round number and a Fib number too πŸ™‚ times 100. So I have to disagree with Gary here. We are in the middle of a C wave up. Another smack in Gold during late hours but it’s being bought. We got the very same retest in 2011 23rd of January.

    Swedish government is about to launch a new crypto, called eCrown, so is this bye bye bitcoin? I guess other governments will follow soon.

    more tulip bulbs to the people!

  4. TraderPete

    Wow, Gary, if gold tests the July low, that would put gold near 1,204 and silver near 15.145. Is that what you’re saying?

  5. Goild

    Gary,

    Thank you for your review.
    Perhaps you are turning pessimistic about gold…
    What about what gold bullishly could do?

  6. Spanky

    The BoJ kept monetary policy the same. I suppose that’s the green light for a continued plunge in yen.

    As an old turkey, it is going to absolutely suck sitting through a possible retest of $1200 on gold. I am hopeful that the 200 WMA will stop golds decline well before that point, but I again you just have to expect the worst on these retracements.

    1. Clarence

      From a long time, ex- Old Turkey, I implore you to sell. You know what is going to happen and it makes no sense to watch your portfolio get crushed.

      Spanky, you are one of the few I enjoy reading here. Get out and save some money. Buy back at the bottom and you will have more shares.

      1. Spanky

        Eh, I have held for two years now. I sat through the trump crash, I can sit through just about anything. Admittedly, if we knife through the 200 WMA with ease, I will worry.

        1. Gary Post author

          It’s probably the hardest strategy to implement in real time but it’s the strategy that virtually all billionaires use to make their fortunes.

  7. Pedestrian

    Consider yourselves lucky if 1200 dollar gold holds as the bottom. If the euro is about to begin its next major cyclical decline it very probably means this is going to take price back to its nearest major support close to parity and that will be very damaging for golds 2018 prospects.

    It’s just not time for metals to Rock-n-roll yet.

    And unless the PM’s can buck the trend of a rising dollar we should not have high expectations until this next major currency cycle has completed. The charts are suggestive of a final low in gold around the 950 levels but it could be worse.

    Sub 1000 dollars is NOT out of the question anymore.

    I continue to believe strongly that this is still a bear market in precious metals and the deflationary effects of a dollar that is once again rising should present strong headwinds that limit the ability of PM’s to advance as much as gold enthusiasts would like.

    All we really have on gold right now is a failed breach of the primary bear-market trend-channel. That came at the end of a rising cycle and before the reversal in Euro/dollars trade. So its significance is going to be limited. To me that break out is little more than a throw-over of price. It does not signify the end of the bear market that began in 2011.

    What I am specifically looking for here is a drop in the Euro to parity with the dollar before the next major bounce comes in so that means a yearly cycle decline is about to get underway. Short trades in metals will be the major beneficiaries as has been the case for years already.

    But nothing ever goes straight down or straight up. So lets keep that in mind. It is going to be a process to work off a euro decline in golds pattern. Shorter term I see opportunities for a bounce which I already wrote about. The way to play gold as long as this bear market continues is to limit long-side exposure in miners in order to avoid drawdowns due to golds price being unstable and falling.

    Shorter term trading is preferred to take advantage of periodic rallys or make the best use of the inevitable and ongoing declines. I realize the enthusiasts in the room (see Gary, I didn’t call them goldtards this time) will be disappointed to hear this and no doubt most will simply disbelieve however the charts are not constructive whatsoever on precious metals in the face of both a rising Nikkei (falling Yen) and an impending dollar/euro reversal.

    This may therefore be a good time to reconsider your exposure to metals if the variables I am discussing start to come into play forcefully. Remember, rising equity markets are generally negative for metals so at the minimum it would seem to be prudent to at least be aware that expectations in the gold sector are likely going to be dampened by the continuing global stock market bull.

    Whether that bull continues is another story though but I don’t want to complicate this narrative too much today. Lets just say a market correction might be what gives us that last big bounce before gold goes down for the count once more.

  8. FoolsGold

    Gold and silver sentiment is way too high and prices will test the 2001 lows as the Fed raises interest rates allowing the US to pay off the $20+ trillion in debt over the twelve months.

    Also, China just confirmed that they will absorb all of the worthless paper that Fed is trying to sell and dump all of their gold, silver and rare earth metals to do so.

    Another sign that gold and silver sentiment is way too high is the 2-year backlog in American Eagle availability and the crowds lined-up for miles 24/7/365 at all of the local coin shops in the US clamoring to buy coins and bars at any price.

    I am also seeing thousands of new gold and silver mines opening around the world this year with production expected to increase 10-fold in the next 2 years.

    Definitely a bubble in gold and silver.

    The US dollar is the only real store of value as witnessed by the huge increase in its purchasing power since the creation of the Fed in 1913.

    If you have not sold all of your physical precious metals holdings, now would be a good time to do so before the current bubble pops.

    1. Troy

      I will sell my physical gold at 5,000/oz. The miners or ETFs on the other hand should have been already sold.

      1. Bluebellkid

        A little trivia for you courtesy of Richard Maybury:
        Do you have any idea how much $20 Trillion is??
        If you stacked twenty trillion one dollar bills on top of each other they would reach the moon!!

  9. Steffmeister

    I do not care about sentiment, currencies, dma’s etc. All I care about is the fractals indicating the vibration of an asset. Here is a plausible count imo. I am no expert in EW, but it’s inspired by Daneric and other ew experts.

    http://farm5.staticflickr.com/4439/37192581072_6ec63504c4_b.jpg

    No the bear is not put to sleep yet and yes it’s still possible to break $1000, look at the final C wave down. I am expecting 2018 to be a flat year for Gold πŸ˜› and a possible bounce in the dollar?

    Look at oil, the same corrective count as Gold, but Oil is a couple of years further down the road than Gold. A possible look into the future for Gold, I don’t know, it’s possible.

    Ok, now you can go back to your icl-dcl, sentiment and ma analysis …

    1. Nada

      Whats up with that chart? What timeframe, and maybe capture the price axis. I can tell if its a 1m chart or a 1 week chart.

  10. Kruzoe

    This board is turning too bearish on gold. Time for me to sell my dust to-day for a potential $15k pay day. Let’s see how the day goes.

  11. Gary Post author

    I warned the perma bulls yesterday that this wasn’t over.

    Gold is breaking through that 1300 support. Over the next 2-3 days we should get the real panic that represents a cycle low. This usually only occurs when traders are afraid to buy, not when they’re afraid of missing a rally. Even yesterday I saw way too many people anxious to pick a bottom because they are afraid they might miss the next rally. We have to eliminate that kind of sentiment. We should do it by sometime next week.

    Then we will get a rally out of a DCL. But the rally will be left translated and will only serve to trap longs that are still hoping for the rally to resume. Ultimately the final bottom won’t occur until sometime in mid to late October, maybe even early November.

    Focus on the stock market right now, we’ll come back to metals in 4-6 weeks.

    1. Nada

      I concede 1 burrito as I was thinking we would not see lower before a gap fill. I think the bet was we would not see an ICL before gap, but I was clearly wrong in regards to the DCL.

      I am not sure about anything else at this point in regards to the next cycle being left translated. A few weeks ago, it was load the boat during the next DCL and now that has changed to its going to be LT. Recency bias I presume is at work.

      1. roadrunner

        that gap above in gld will get filled at some point. I am paying attention to the gaps in gld that are lower. it is those areas where i will look for a short term bottom or dcl.

  12. Goild

    Good morning,

    Here we go with a falling knife.
    To open the appetite I just got 1K shares of JNUG at $17.97.
    Let us make money today.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think gold will go below the July low. But I also don’t think it’s going to bottom until the currencies complete their counter trend moves. The earliest would be when the yen finishes its ICL. That won’t be due until mid to late October.

      The metals are still stuck in the basing pattern.

      Gold’s time will come, but as I’ve been saying for months it isn’t going to happen until the stock market bubble finishes and pops. We’re just now starting the vertical phase in stocks so gold bugs will need to be patient. Play the stock bubble for now. The gold bubble will come later.

  13. Goild

    You want to make money today?

    I will tell you what. If JNUG dives to $17.50 I will get 5K shares, but it will not likely do dive so far.
    It is a at the bottom of the lower trend line, at substantial support.
    I will add more to my 1K shares if there is a dip.

  14. Gary Post author

    Old Turkey is a valid strategy and one that will make an insane amount of money, but one that is almost impossible to do in real time because the ICL’s always look like the bull is dead.

  15. MegaMind

    how come premarket showed a huge drop in JNUG and the open was much milder drop? can we trust these premarket numbers?

  16. Goild

    Added 1K JNUG shares and then sold 2k JNUG shares for a quick $390 profit.

    JNUG FILLED AT $17.97 Limit at $17.97 Buy 1000 Limit at $17.97 4:00 PM 08:52:54 AM 09/21/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.2035 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:31:54 AM 09/21/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.1565 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:32:58 AM 09/21/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.12 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:33:50 AM 09/21/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.2135 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:33:55 AM 09/21/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $18.2445 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:34:02 AM 09/21/2017

  17. Gary Post author

    Barring a late day rescue stocks should be moving down into the half cycle low now.

    Watch the 3 day RSI. HCL’s will usually at least push the 3 day RSI to oversold. Sometimes they push the 5 day RSI to oversold.

  18. Bigdaddy

    Dodged a bullet when I sold my USLV and didn’t get back in. I am just going to watch these markets for a while before making a move. Somebody keeps saying gold might go back up and test it’s recent highs before collapsing but that looks unlikely in the immediate future.

    1. Troy

      I just dodged one too. After buying JNUG AH yesterday for 18.75 I was going to sell for a loss today. Doubled down at 18.20 and just sold for 18.50. Not worth the $20 – commission profit.

  19. vin

    Hello Pedestrian! Where are you?

    Do you understand why I sold my leveraged SM position when you became soooo cocky?

    You were all upset that I used YOU as a contrary indicator.

    Believe me you are a great contrary indicator.

    You and Gary being in complete agreement was a perfect indicator for me to get out of the leveraged SM positions. As you can see it was a right call.

    And, it looks like the best is yet to come. LOL!!!!!

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think you are actually looking at the stock market. The S&P hasn’t even closed below 2500.

      Weren’t you the one telling me that I was wrong and should be buying metals two weeks ago and selling stocks?

      Now gold is below $1300 and the S&P is above 2500.

      1. vin

        You are right. My position was in your favorite tqqq.

        But, my post was really meant for Pedestrian. He makes some good calls but he sometimes insults people just because he has been right sometimes. I wanted to point out in a dramatic way that he is as much wrong if not more.

        Your predictions lately have been simply amazing. If had followed them without doubts I would have done well.

        1. Gary Post author

          Let’s just shut down the insults from here on out. Ped promised to tone it down and he has. I expect everyone else to do the same.

          having a different view on the markets is perfectly acceptable. That’s what we’re here for, to debate the markets.

      2. vin

        Gary was it really me who asked you to buy metals two weeks ago? In fact I was thinking of selling jnug too weeks ago. This is the same jnug I bought at 44+ when you had promised that it will go to 2000!

        1. Gary Post author

          Well I said jnug is going above 500 not 2000. I’ve also been very clear that this is going to take at least 3 to 5 years. If you have that kind of time horizon then you are going to make an insane amount of money.

          If you’re like most retail traders and get sidetracked during every intermediate decline you have no hope of ever making that kind of money.

          1. vin

            WOW!

            Gary I expected more professionalism from you. Your 500 prediction was before the 4 to 1 (reverse) split.

            If you go by pre-split numbers then my buying price (when you were hot on it) is a bit more than 11 (and NOT 44)!

            Let us not worry about my trading habits. Let us follow your prediction of 2000 (based on the after reverse split) numbers.

      3. goldfu

        Well gold is trying to regain 1300 and GDX was just green so perhaps this is the signal of bottom? I guess you are still thinking there is more downside to come.

      4. goldfu

        People getting bullish due to the reversal in GDX today. I wonder if this sucks in bulls for the ride lower or whether this is indeed bottom.

  20. Steffmeister

    Steady hand on the tiller ! We are sailing through troubled water …

    Loaded with miners and some JNUG’s πŸ™‚ going midterm old turkey. looking for a high at end of year!

    1. vin

      golds will do well with all the coming ups and downs. But, as you very well know that 3X are a dangerous game. And, then the small cap miners are quite leveraged by themselves. So, be careful. I wish you the best.

      IMO, it is a bit early to buy highly leveraged PM. On the other hand, risk taking is a part of the game. Though I will wait till the end of the year or so.

      Good luck

  21. Troy

    Added more TQQQ at 111.05. Overweight in it now.
    But no gold/miners anymore.
    Holding UWT, GUSH and half of my ERX positions.

  22. Pedestrian

    I don’t have any calls on the stock market. No targets, not predictions for either a decline or a rise and no idea if it will keep going up or fall flat on its face. Not sure what Vin was talking about. He might be confusing me with someone else.

    1. Christian

      He might’ve been confusing you with Alexandru Popoviciii — Nada’s best friend and our resident SM expert πŸ™‚

      1. Pedestrian

        Could be. Seems a strange thing to criticize me about since I rarely discuss equity markets other than indicators I am taking from the Nikkei that could impact on gold.

    2. goldfu

      You must have learned your lesson after you kept saying the market would tank only to watch it go up every day for months on end after your call for market carnage.

      1. Pedestrian

        You will have to get a quote on that from the history logs. I don’t have a call for the stock market to crash and have not commented on it for quite a long while. I did however have a theory many months ago about the Nikkei but it never panned out as it was a dead end. In any case I don’t short the SM so its not me.

      2. Nada

        Sounds like “the great scorch Alex”. Notice how he made his currency calls last week and they ALL turned out to be wrong? Now he has disappeared. It is fine to have an opinion, but these folks that say it was such certainty will have consequences later – the word “impossible” was used for USDJPY over 111. Guess what? USDJPY made a high yesterday of 112.71.

        1. goldfu

          And yes one needs to be very wary about anyone who says something with great certainty (especially if they then have to disappear for a while to let things blow over). At the end of the day there is no certainty in the markets regardless if one thinks they are great at cycles, elliott waves, etc.

    3. vin

      Hi Pedestrian. It is quite possible that I erred. I don’t have the time to go back into the record to ensure who said what.

      Though I like very much what Gary says about being more civil. Let us do that.

      Let me assure you that I know very little. PERIOD. And, that is true about everything in life. So, I am willing to learn about investing, specially from someone as knowledgeable as you. If I have hurt you in any way I apologize.

      My aim of being on this site and spend my valuable time is not to read people putting each other down but to learn from people like you and Gary. Thank you for being here.

  23. Roy Batty

    Gary, you made an interesting comment about bitcoin, on the pay site, this morning. Kyle Bass was in agreement with you, until recently, after very little research. Listen to this short segment of an interview from the 36 minute point to 42.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ZdtL1YrRYo

    Earlier you claimed the bitcoin bubble had burst. It remains to be seen….personally I think it has quite a ways to run. The recent fall was due to China again clamping down on cryptos (capital controls don’t work well with bitcoin and the others being freely traded). Very few people are into it and mostly with small portfolios … probably just beginning. It’s a bubble no doubt….but I think it’s similar to the dot com bubble in that some of these currencies/tokens/blockchains will go on to radically change societies. Much money will be made and lost and many entities will be disintermediated. Hopefully governments themselves are largely disintermediated in the process (as is happening in China with non-bank capital flight).

    1. Gary Post author

      As long as there is no barrier to entry and cryptocurrencies aren’t backed by the productive capacity or ability to tax they will never change our society. They are just the latest Ponzi scheme fad. No different than the world going crazy and deciding grains of sand are valuable and everybody running to the beach to scoop some up and sell to the next person.

        1. Gary Post author

          Currencies are controlled by central banks. That’s why I will no longer trade them. We should have a daily and intermediate cycle low in place, but I certainly wouldn’t make an actual trade based on that as the Fed could just prevent the dollar from rallying.

      1. Roy Batty

        There were no barriers to entry for search engines and news aggregators during the dot com gold rush. Now look at google and drudge or, on the flip side, libraries and CNN. Bitcoin has first mover advantage in an era when established financial institutions, backed by the establishment, are on their way to the ash heap of history. Currencies are based on confidence and that confidence is based on market participation. Why do you think rich Chinese are hiding their assets and moving their assets using cryptos?

        If you think blockchains are a fad you need to do some research. Blockchain tech allows for distributed networks and decentralization. Decentralization IS the future. Check out Ethereum and protocols like Civic using ERC20. Blockchain technology is as big or bigger than Internet Technology. This is the next big thing and you’re missing it.

        1. Gary Post author

          We simply can’t have every Tom Dick and Harry creating his own currency. Currencies must be backed by the productive capacity and ability to tax of a country. Kryptos do not fulfill that requirement, therefore they cannot be a currency and are nothing more than a pure speculation.

          1. Pedestrian

            And also, currencies are really representative of the labour and time of workers or alternatively the production created by labour. Wheat copper and gold all have monetary value and were money at different times in history. In modern times we might substitute televisions, autos or waiter services. Their production involved labour and energy and material inputs to produce and could be bartered for other goods deemed of equal or similar value. Bitcoin and Cryptos are none of these things and so cannot qualify as real money since they do not represent any intrinsic value as we know it. They are not a commodity, a labour hour or an industrial process that yields output suitable as a money alternative. So it is impossible to equate them as money at this time. They may however gain acceptance in the future if people accept them in exchange for their efforts and the practice is so widespread that few would consider refusing them in exchange for other goods. But that time is not here yet and for the moment these crypto coins are strictly speculative.

          2. Roy Batty

            I think your definition of currency is the definition of a RESERVE currency. Many good currencies have existed throughout history without governments and taxes. The actual requirements for a sound currency are things such as portability +, being lightweight +, non-perishable +, standard units +, large enough supply +, limited enough supply +, good store of wealth +, good unit of measure – (maybe later it will stabilize), good divisibility +, widespread use -. Bitcoin is backed by encryption, trust, first mover status, and decentralization. Blockchain technology is much more than just currencies anyway. You need to learn about the technology behind bitcoin to fully understand its implications and speculation potential.

            Any bubble is pure speculation. You’re speculating right now on a stock market bubble. If you don’t want to speculate then exchange your 3x ETF’s for USD’s and stuff them all in some bank.

          3. Roy Batty

            Ped,
            Do some research on how much electricity, time, and resources are required to produce one bitcoin. It’s called mining. Also, many people are exchanging their hard earned fiat for crypto currencies so it seems labor and production are represented in the space.

          4. Roy Batty

            Ped, here’s some help.

            From a recent study:

            https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Adam_Hayes2/publication/317601872_Bitcoin_price_and_its_marginal_cost_of_production_supporting_evidence/links/5942a44945851525f88d62c0/Bitcoin-price-and-its-marginal-cost-of-production-supporting-evidence

            Conclusion
            The marginal cost of production was found to correspond to the market price of bitcoin in early 2016 when its price was around $420. Today, with the market price six times higher, marginal cost still seems to regulate the market price. In this paper, the cost of production model was backtested using historical data showing that the market price of bitcoin tends to fluctuate around the model price, with a long-run average ratio of market price to model price a striking 1.006.
            This finding suggests that the marginal cost of production of bitcoin has much to do with its price, while other factors such as transaction volume, merchant adoption, number of end users, news mentions, etc. do not. This is surprising given the wealth of research that has attempted to find a correlation between the price of bitcoin and these or other factors (e.g. Ciaian et al. 2016; Kristoufek 2015; Polasik et al 2015). This further positions bitcoin as a produced commodity rather than a money instrument, although it is purported to be used as such.
            When the market price to model price ratio exceeds 1.00, the market is trading at a premium to the model. At a high enough premium, a feedback loop may occur causing a temporary price bubble. This happens as a surge in demand bids up the market price, inducing less efficient miners to the network, which further increases the difficulty and forces marginal miners to offer their product at increasingly higher prices. The difficulty will tend to rise faster than the price eventually forcing out the inefficient miners and allowing the market price to fall to the marginal cost of production of the more efficient units.

          5. Pedestrian

            That’s honestly pretty amazing. I did not know. Still, when we look back in history it was physical commodities, manufactures and human labour that represented money when none existed. I could trade a goat for a set of hand sewn clothes for example or I might buy land if I was in possession of a few big sacks of salt.

            But I may have to modify my opinion a little after looking deeper into this crypto thing however I worry if computers do most of the work and the human element is excluded that acceptance will take an adjustment in the publics mind.

            I mean to say we all have an idea of our worth (so to speak) as it pertains to the salary or hourly rates we are paid and that worth can easily be translated into the products we desire because we also know what they are worth.

            In the absence of that connection, money or other purely electronic currency, seems to not fit well and most especially when its value can rise and fall dramatically as we have seen. Should I be a stone mason today with an hourly rate of 20 dollars but by payday be an instant millionaire?

            See what I am getting at?

      2. felix115

        well…. it’s now clear to me that you don’t know what kind of real productive capacity stand behind blockchain (and the utility tokens)…. It’s a new economy developping, with new and real jobs created. More than real jobs, i don’t know other real productive capacity…..

  24. Spanky

    The $XJY chart shows that the July low went below the May low. That is, we have already gotten a failed daily cycle in yen, just like with gold.

    Therefore, this could just be a stretched daily cycle in yen, just like with gold. Furthermore, we have just hit the 200 dma in $XJY, with all of the key moving averages still bullishly aligned (20 dma above the 50 dma above the 100 dma above the 200 dma).

  25. Strike2

    I give kudos to Gary and Pedestrian for their PM directionality call. Down it was, emphatically. Good call guys. But now comes the interesting part. While Gary foresees a date with or near the July low, Pedestrian predicts the possibility of a waterfall decline, making it sound like Eagles will be used to feed washers in laundromats maybe.

    1. Pedestrian

      LOL! Well I don’t know about laundromats. Pretty damned funny comment though so it got a good laugh. Anyway, all I was really saying was that if the euro and yen fall they will take gold back down with them. Nobody really knows how deep that might be but the charts suggest numbers below 1000 are very possible.

      No need to panic though. A lot can happen between now and then and this is only speculation anyway.

  26. goldfu

    Many on social media are bullish on gold now that GDX has reversed here today but I am still wary. It seems too simple to just have gold bottom here on the first reversal day of GDX.

    1. Nada

      Not possible to have a swing low today, so yes its best to wait. We had BOW for GDX yesterday of 203 million, so a bounce is expected. If they bought at LOD yesterday, then maybe they made a small profit – I doubt the dropped down 203 million for less than a 1 point move.

      My guess is we get a new daily cycle today or tomorrow. Gold is showing no reason for the next cycle to be left translated. Its certainly feasible and appreciate Gary putting the possibility of such out there. However, what you may notice is the recency bias. When gold is moving upwards for a few days, its to the moon and when gold is dropping for a few days its sub 1000 gold calls being made – I have already seen them and using TV gold discussion chat room as a sentiment indicator, the sentiment is very low.

        1. goldfu

          I stick to simple TA . I want a bullish candle over the 8 EMA on the daily to go long. Until I see the 8 ema broken (end of day) I think best to wait as it is like catching falling knives as everywhere you look folks have targets all the way down (1300, 1280, 1267) etc. and some are screaming this level or that level is/was bottom and we shoot to the moon after hitting this or that level.

          The trend now is down so I at least want to see a break above 8 EMA on a bullish candle to wade in-call me crazy.

        2. Nada

          50ma seems like a good place to draw the line. Its also pretty close to .5 fib retracement from the July 10th low. No crystal ball though.

          1. goldfu

            Seems dangerous to use any target bottom whether it is MA, fib level etc as it is all just guessing. Need to actually see a reversal. Until then everyone is just guessing as to lows.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m not basing it on recency bias. I’m basing it on the yen now being in a left translated daily cycle and working its way down into an ICL. Gold has shown a strong tendency to follow the yen.

        This should also indicate some kind of bounce in the dollar as well as the dollar usually trades inversely to the yen.

      2. Christian

        I’m sorry but.. “not possible” sounds a lot like my “definitely” Nada.

        You better watch yourself πŸ™‚

  27. Bigdaddy

    Just bought another 5000 SPXU at 14.02 for a total of 10000 average of 14.58. If you can’t beat them, average down.

    1. Gary Post author

      I remember watching many videos similar to this explaining why real estate wasn’t a bubble as well.

      I’ll say it again. A bubble has nothing to do with the fundamental viability of the asset. Maybe blockchain technology will be adopted by governments and it will become viable.

      A bubble is simply about human emotions run amok. The symptoms are price rallies 100% or more in a year or less.

      Price moves extremely far away from the mean. Often 60% or more above the 200 DMA.

      The prevailing sentiment during a bubble is that free money is available for anyone willing to pick it up.

      Bitcoin fits all those requirements.

      At some point unrealistic expectations of free money for the foreseeable future meet reality and the bubble pops.

      1. Roy Batty

        Gary,

        I stipulated that bitcoin is in a bubble so no disagreement there. The disagreement is over whether the bubble has popped … you think it has. Real estate wasn’t a new game changing technology and blockchain is….therefore its bubble is predicated on much more than extra currency units floating around or on pure speculation. It’s more similar to the dot com bubble as I already stated. But interestingly it’s occurring outside of traditional financial intermediaries such as Wall Street, banks, SEC, IPO’s, etc.. It’s a technology that can eliminate vast swaths of middlemen and at the same time increase transactional security to near absolute. Smart contracts are but one example.

        The technology doesn’t need governments to make it viable. That’s the beauty of it. Hopefully it will make governments mostly obsolete.

      2. Roy Batty

        You must not have watched the video because there was nothing in it about this not being a bubble. The entire video is a simple explanation of blockchain technology. You can lead a horse to water………

  28. AT

    Just added 50% JNUG at 18.41

    Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41 (new trade)
    Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
    Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
    Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
    Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
    Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
    Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
    Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
    Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

  29. Roy Batty

    Ped,

    I see your point regarding the volatility of bitcoin. The value is in its transactional security, across the globe, of huge amounts of money … without government or other interference. How else can you move $500,000,000 from Shanghai (or anywhere in the world with internet capabilities) to San Francisco (or anywhere) without interference/approvals/taxes/paperwork? Actually you can forget about the locations because bitcoin exists globally always (wherever there’s an internet connection). It can also be transacted, not verified, without internet. Once transacted the bitcoin can be exchanged for your currency or equity of choice. But as stated, the technology behind bitcoin is blockchain distributed ledger protocols. This goes way beyond bitcoin and transactional currencies. Bitcoin is to blockchain what google is/was to the internet. People are confused on that point. They think bitcoin is the technology when, in fact, it is an application of blockchain technology.

  30. Christian

    DUST — Cashing out @25 with a healthy stack of money in my hand πŸ™‚

    We could see a bit more upside and possibly a break of the 50DMA but I’m taking off tomorrow morning for the weekend and will not be around to monitor.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Very nice play Christian. I like your calls because you don’t flip and flop and talk out of both sides of your mouth like others here. My hat goes off to you bud.

      1. mexican

        Like your style!!!!We need a little humor on this site!! Did your dog get any Rabbits lately?
        Big Daddy what’s your take on oil now?Any inside news??

  31. mexican

    Cashed out of DUST at 24.75 not as good as Christian but happy with the profits,should be a bounce soon and will re enter Dust for the ride down!!!
    Good trading to all!!

  32. zbigkid

    Folks. Go long miners. They are going to lead gold big time here.

    What a bunch of worry warts on this board.

  33. palobar

    I am amazed how easily people move from excitement to despair. And all of this with Gold moving up and down just a few dollars. How on earth are you ever gonna catch the big moves? Despite the nuclear bombs flying around and the Dollar falling for nine months, Gold did not manage to exceed last year’s high which means something. If we don’t get a nice swing point on the 10th of October, then 20 October (+/- 2 days) most likely should bring a powerful turning point. Pay attention also to XAUEUR and the Nikkei (monthly). Very big moves are ahead of us.

  34. Goild

    butch,

    I grabbed that quote from “The way of the Turtle” which is one of the good books about trading.

    It helps one to sit quite.

  35. Goild

    The time to really get serious about boarding the bandwagon is nearing.
    You got to have a plan of action, which, unless you have steel balls, to reduce risk, must be pyramiding.
    Three years from now JNUG at $18 or $18/4=$4.50 would be ridiculously cheap.
    No plan = missing opportunity.
    I would like to be on automatic profit.
    Please share your thoughts on putting together a plan.

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