194 thoughts on “GOLD – SHORT CYCLE NOW IN PLAY?

  1. Nada

    Must say, when Alex said USDJPY was topped out and would not rise over 111, I immediately became frightened and knew it would become a target. Data in 30 will push it above or secure his thoughts.

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      πŸ™‚
      holding my positions to my stop losses: long gold, short eurjpy, short russeell2k.
      we have a swing high in stocks.

      as to yen there is a 2nd scenario at play…I’ll answer to Gary below:

    1. Gary Post author

      I warned traders that bitcoin was showing signs of a mature vertical phase.

      Fundamentals don’t mean anything at this point. The market is trying to tell you that it’s too much, too fast. You can’t stretch any asset 400% in a year and not expect a crash to occur.

      This is always the way it is with bubbles. Traders think that somehow the fundamentals warrant insane price movements. All that’s really happening is human emotions are running amok.

      The only way to play a bubble is to recognize it when it’s happening and at some point you have to control your greed and get out.

      This doesn’t mean that price can’t eventually recover but it’s always a very slow process taking years and very often the asset will lose 70-90% of it’s value first.

      Maybe bitcoin is a viable currency but once the bubble pops it’s going to be many years before it makes a come back.

      It took the Nasdaq 15 years to recover from its bubble.

    1. Gary Post author

      That is a failed daily cycle in progress. The yen has now started an intermediate decline. It should still have 3-4 weeks before the more lasting bottom.

      The short cycle scenario for gold is probably now in play.

      1. Nada

        You keep saying this Gary, but I think this one you get wrong. I see gold rising into FOMC to fill the gap. No correction until gap is filled. Care to wager 1 burrito?

        1. Gary Post author

          Sure 1 burrito.

          The scenario you are looking for would require a 60+ day cycle. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a 60 day cycle.

          1. Nada

            Well I am not so sure what cycle we are in to be honest, but yes assuming its the first, it is extremely stretched. With that said, how many IC’s have you seen that only contain 1 daily cycle? Your scenario is suggesting we roll into an ICL after just 1?

          2. Gary Post author

            There will probably be two daily cycles. One really long (current cycle) then a short one.

            That would give us one short intermediate cycle as the dollar bounces and somewhat balance out the last three long intermediate cycles.

    1. Gary Post author

      You must email me the trade within a minute of making it so I can verify.

      Price and percentage of portfolio is what I need.

  2. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary, there is also the possibility of JPY having set its last DCL on Jul11.
    It would concur w/ historical counts of JPY’s DC which tend to be long, about 40-day long.
    If so, then JPY is close to a DCL or just set it by shaking its 50dma.

    First let’s see if we have a swing tomorrow for JPY.

    1. Gary Post author

      The last DCL occurred on Aug. 31. It confirmed by breaking the cycle uptrend line and turning the 10 DMA back down.

      Finally after almost 9 months the yen has started to make lower lows. That should be a sign of an intermediate decline beginning.

  3. Goild

    Good morning.

    After Alex call and the candle pre market behavior I loaded 5k JNUG shares at $21.
    I left a lot of money on the table but I am green for the week.

  4. Gary Post author

    The banks have completed a larger degree ICL.

    The transports have completed a larger degree ICL.

    Energy stocks have completed a larger degree ICL.

    The Russell has completed a larger degree ICL.

    European stocks have completed a larger degree ICL.

    The odds are strongly in favor that the S&P has also completed a mild ICL.

  5. jacob2

    Oil, a new record, up for 3 consecutive days. Can’t believe it’s actually trending, but I’ll take it.

      1. jacob2

        Vindicated. I’m always early in buying. There have been 2 other times in my investing life that I have managed to buy bottoms and both game changers financially. Don’t want to jinx it by raising the flag and declaring victory but this feels the same. Good luck

      2. Pedestrian

        By the way Gary, my exact comment on your ERX trade on September 8th was:
        —————————————–
        Pedestrian
        September 6, 2017 at 1:39 pm

        Not sure this (ERX) move goes above 27.50 though. Where did you guys buy into it?
        ——————————

        That was my estimate for a high 8 days back. We are seeing 26.43 at the moment so lets see if she exceeds my estimated top within a reasonable range. I still have doubts but will admit it looks good at the moment.

    1. Troy

      Oil took out $50. I think $60 should be a piece of cake this cycle. I did book some profits on GUSH and ERX today (and will do some on UWT) though, but holding 75% of my shares until we get overbought.

  6. Jimsee

    damn – reading Armstrong makes you want to cut your wrists. Haven’t read him in 2 months or so…still believes gold will collapse if the dollar collapses as irates go negative? He looks locked into a 1980’s era capital flow model – the only way that works out is if Russia and China agree to be the 51st and 52nd US states. Not impossible, but bloody unlikely imo. Look how well it is going for our own US states as they 1 by 1 walk to bankruptcy under massive debt loads. Having failed to replace russian Gas in europe there is no clear path to us hegemony in europe energy in the forseeable future – if cooling accelerates in the next 2-3 years the US will be irrelevant.

      1. Jimsee

        u read his commentary?

        “The ONLY time we get monetary reform is when the dollar RISES, not declines. Hey, if the dollar declines, then interest rates will continue to travel negative, gold will collapse, the stock market will implode, and Trump will emerge as the best president in history creating massive new American jobs exporting everything not just blue jeans, rock & roll, and US corrupt law. Emerging markets can keep borrowing dollars with no end, dumping commodities that are at excess supply, and everyone will be perpetually happy – the euro will be strong at last and magically the ECB can just keep European governments on life support without end.”

        https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/usd/am-i-certain-about-the-strong-dollar/

        1. Gary Post author

          Armstrong hasn’t spotted a major turn in anything yet.

          His “AI” computer is programmed to follow big trends so he’s always on the wrong side of the market at major turning points.

          He missed the bottom in gold. Heck he missed the top in gold. He missed the top of the 7 YC in stocks and then missed the bottom of the 7 YC.

          He’s now missed the top in the dollar.

          1. Pedestrian

            Come on Gary. Armstrongs record is excellent. That is not to say he has been perfect by any means but there is not a single forecaster in the world today who has done a better job over the long term. Just do a review of his past major calls. Not sure why you keep knocking him anyway. It’s not like he is taking your subscribers.

          2. Gary Post author

            He gets some short term calls right. He misses every major turn just like I said.

            He is missing the turn from bull market to bear market in the dollar.

        2. Pedestrian

          Thanks Jim. Must have missed that one.

          The thing is Armstrong has been pretty consistent saying the dollar will rise sharply and euro collapse come 2018 (?). Should the euro actually decline back to its 2001 support line around 85 cents (and possibly cease to exist) it is going to be the worst possible outcome for gold. Remember that when the dollar rises (euro falls) that gold generally goes down. It is not JUST the Yen that matters here and yesterdays link I left showing a chart with a massive inverse head and shoulders on dollar/yen could be warning that is exactly what is coming. I used to write about the idea frequently myself but the backlash was so severe I decided to just give it up. None the less I am not particularly enthused by gold other than I expect a 2018 bounce. All we can do is play it by ear I suppose. The Euro broke below its second important support overnight btw and this signals that following a bounce (that seems to be currently in progress) that both euro and gold will decline as the dollar rises again. So for the bears there is another chance to enter short at better prices once gold attempts to double top.

          1. Jimsee

            Armstrong is a legend in his own mind – He was adamant gold would hit 5K in 2015 – back in 2008-2010 – then turned ultrabear when his original forecast was wrong. That was the forecast that mattered – the reset/panic points are what a forecaster should be helpful with – otherwise they are just trend followers gaming people for money or fame. Jim Sinclair and Armstrong should both be condemned completely for standing up and yelling ‘HEY – I am an INSIDER and KNOW what the boys are gonna do to you’.

  7. JJHarmen

    I bought a few hundred more GDX. I guess I will be doing the ‘old turkey’ thing with GDX. I think it will see $30 long before it sees $20.

  8. Spanky

    GDX consolidating around the 20 dma. That’s fine.

    One thing I find curious is the slv:gld ratio. It’s been in a very linear, tight (in terms of the close) and shallow ramp since the July low on the daily chart. The volatility should start expanding soon. The weekly chart confirms this tightening behavior.

    A rising slv:gld ratio should be supportive of miners generally. We’ll see what happens.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV%3AGLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p54167749187&a=544503918&listNum=1

  9. Jimsee

    Basically our central planers were outplayed and empire overreach has depleted our resource but leaving behind the massive debts – wunnerful work guys. They gambled ME remapping would lead to complete control over energy flows and they *lost*. Who goes to prison for this debacle? Cheney,lol.

    1. Spanky

      We still have a pile of nukes and can drone anyone anywhere in the world that dares to speak a word against us.

      This is the evil of the state. They use escalating brute force to maintain power and control.

  10. Pedestrian

    Kim Jong Un has not finished. He is PISSED that gold went down. So here comes the gold bounce courtesy of another rocket from North Korea. Guess it depends on where the missile goes as to how much of a bounce we get. Just be ready. Goild may be correct that gold will put in a double-top on this event. All that remains to be seen is if that double top exceeds the prior high or not.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-14/gold-usdjpy-turmoil-nikkei-reports-signs-north-korean-missile-launch-prep

    1. Bigdaddy

      Pedo, yesterday you were so bearish that you finally took out positions (DUST DSLV, JDST, DGLD) . The day before you were buying JNUG. Today you are talking bullish about a double top. Christ man, why don’t you just admit that you have no idea where gold is going to be tomorrow, next week, next year. What a retard.

        1. Bigdaddy

          You waited weeks for the right time to go short and now your saying that you day traded out of your position? Liar!!

          1. Pedestrian

            Nope. Not lying. I did not chase the trend is all. As long as anyone has read my posts here it has always been clear I day trade. Exactly what I am trading is none of your business though. The only thing I discuss on this site is gold and silver.

      1. Pedestrian

        See this is why I don’t post entries, exits or bother writing about gains or losses. The Dodo’s on the board are so hopelessly inept that after you have said repeatedly what your trading method is they still don’t get it. Simply amazing ineptness. Its not wonder the Dodo blows up his account everyday since he has no memory and keeps repeating the same mistakes over and over again.

  11. Goild

    I got into XLE like in March 28th. I thought it was a good spot.
    After earthkitten overbought comment I just sold it at $66.75.
    That was in a retirement account where I did also some oil trades.
    Overall I made a bit of money there. It was a long term trade.
    If XLE comes down a bit I may get back into it,
    Of course Gary is optimistic in energy.

    1. bginvestor

      Hey Goild!

      XLE’s cycle are around 17 to 20 days.. We printed day 18. I’m looking to add as well.

      I expect a right translated cycle, so if price gets to the 50 MA, I’ll be looking for an entry…

  12. Bigdaddy

    SOB, that LABD was looking promising this morning and it went to shit real fast. I got out at my buy in price (which I will not reveal ).

  13. Goild

    XBI wants to hit the 2015 $90 peak.
    That might be the point to get into LABD.
    So I changed my mind and sold the 1K shares.
    Good trading to all.

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, I am beginning to believe you are the prolific day trader that you say you are. You appear to be honest about your trades, unlike some here.

  14. Bigdaddy

    I have had enough of Gary allowing his other self , Pedestrian, to make up bullshit stories about his trades. Gary claimed to be fed up with people claiming their after the fact wins and started his contest., However, he allows Pedestrian not to be in the contest and to make horseshit claims about his fake wins. It’s all so obvious to me and I am not the smartest guy here.

    1. Pedestrian

      You don’t pay attention. I never made a single claim about wins or losses. What do you smoke up there in Canada anyway? Car exhaust by any chance? Must cause some serious brain damage because you are only firing on a single cylinder.

    2. JJHarmen

      BD, you are not alone with your thinking but keep it civil or you might get the boot even though “Pedestrian” is permitted to name call to his heart’s content.

      1. Christian

        I love Gary to bits but he can be a bit of a hypocrite every now and then :/

        Keep in mind.. He can’t give every moron on this blog the boot (and there’s plenty) or else traffic will die and he won’t rank on Google search. The more traffic, the better for his online business πŸ™‚

      2. Pedestrian

        Hey JJHarmen, calling you people gold-tards is not name calling.
        It verges on being polite in your company.

    3. Lenapowich

      BD, I was sitting on the fence but I think you are right. You need to stop getting worked up about it. Why don’t all of us just ignore this Pedestrian character ?

      1. Pedestrian

        Yes please Powpow. I hope you take the opposite side of my trades too.

        (I really hope…saying a prayer about it now)

  15. Bv

    I’m confused Gary? You said a definition of being in a gold bull is one where we make yearly higher highs and higher lows, but now you are saying it doesn’t look like gold is going to exceed the 2016 highs this year? So by your definition and what you think is going to happen, gold cannot be in a bull market anymore?

    1. JJHarmen

      BV, that is a very good point but where is it written that in a bull market, new yearly highs MUST be made? Lets see what Gary has to say. (and not via Pedestrian)

    2. Gary Post author

      Sure it can.

      It’s just stuck in a basing pattern while the stock market sucks up all the liquidity.

  16. Christian

    This video pretty much re-iterates what I’ve been saying for the past several days πŸ™‚

    You’re welcome.

    1. Nada

      No No Christian. The gauntlet has been thrown and a very serious prize of 1 burrito is at stake along with the fate of mankind. Gold must fill gap before we see correction, kind sir. We all know what Kim Jong Un is doing. Yes, that is correct. He is fueling his missiles. Long gold you must.

  17. JJHarmen

    BD, the days not over yet but you may have bailed out of LABD too soon, I have a stop in at 4.99 just in case.

      1. JJHarmen

        Ped, you may be adding LABD to your very long list of wrong calls. You are as bad at reading charts as Gary is good at it. I guess that should be no surprise.

      2. roadrunner

        If he bought LABD at $5.12 and it is at 5.22 how is he underwater? and with a stop at 4.99 he is not risking much….however, notice how you addressed him,? “see i told you you you would be underwater.” Basically you shit on the guys trade. because well, that is what you do. And whenever someone calls you out for doing so, you try to play victim and cry for Gary to reign in your critics. You know, you might want to spend some time going back over your posts the last year or so. you are extremely rude and obnoxious, Not all the time, but a significant amount that many if not all who post here recognize as much. a typical example would be when you believe Gold/PM’s are going to pull back or go down. You come here, tell everyone that its over for gold…all you longs are about to get your teeth smashed, clubbed over the head…etc etc etc…
        need an example, here is just one of the many.
        ” Pedestrian
        August 3, 2017 at 1:58 pm

        Getting back to business…

        Just doing some charting here and I have to tell you Euro-bulls that you are going to get absolutely creamed if you don’t change course and check your chart lines. It is setting up for a magnificent fall that could begin in early September and that tells us gold could well get smashed in the teeth as the dollar roars back to life.

        I would not want to be on the wrong side of that trade once it begins. We are talking crash-city.
        Reply ↓”

        Now you were wrong on that call. At the same time you were calling for a top in oil…you were wrong again.
        So it seems like you enjoy when folks have losing trades. What kind of a person are you? Insecure? Since you refuse to post any of your trades and you have stated your reasons, (no criticism for that policy) perhaps you might want to temper your criticism towards the folks who do post their trades?

          1. Pedestrian

            By the way, pretty funny post you left RoadRunner. You guys have no idea what’s coming your way. We are still in September and the moment of truth has almost arrived. Just as I warned a month and a half ago. I have really gone out of my way to help you guys but you take it so personally whenever I say gold will go down. Hell, I append charts to make my case and ease you into the truth painlessly. And I really do mean to be helpful. So its not my fault you are all so thick skulled and cannot be bothered to check what I say. But this is a final warning. Gold and the other precious metals are going to get destroyed this year. So is copper and palladium. So is crude oil. You and your gold bug friends are in for a very painful ride back down and I will be reminding you of it as we fall since you are so hostile every day.

          2. roadrunner

            so what it went down? it did not hit his stop and now he is in the green. But you missed the point. he is doing what you do not do, that is post his in and his stop. And its like you couldn’t wait to tell him that his position was red and how “you knew it would happen”
            Again, since you choose not to post your trades, entry’s exits stops etc, you might think before you start criticizing the folks who do post their record.

        1. JJHarmen

          Very well put Roadrunner. I think Gary thinks that his creation, Pedestrian, is useful in attracting readers and more importantly potential subs. I think that his reasoning is wrong.

  18. Spanky

    On the 2 hour chart, $XJY is right at its 200 period MA.

    Back in May, the set up looked very similar. Instead of bouncing at the 200 period MA though, yen continued to crash for another 7 or 8 trading days before bottoming.

    If yen is going to bounce, it needs to do it soon to avoid a larger move down. It is certainly oversold on this timeframe, but it was back in May too. One positive sign so far is that the metals correction has been pretty mild relative to the yen.

    1. Nada

      There will be no escape at 23. One must ride gold to gap fill and maybe beyond before we see 23 DUST again. Long gold you must.

      1. Christian

        I’m not sure why you think GLD has to fill the gap Nada? It doesn’t.

        Gold is exhibiting all the signs of a decline that is just getting started, and a drop back to the 38% is a DEFINITE πŸ™‚

        See what I did there…..? Lol.

  19. vrancovich

    gold going up while the yen is going down.
    gold up while euro and dollar flat.
    gold needs to continue this kind of behavior, if we are to have a true bull market it cant be on the back of something else. bitcoin does not care if the dollar is up or down, it just goes up.

    hopefully we keep this up.

  20. Bigdaddy

    Ok, i got back into LABD with an even bigger stake. It looks like the bios are in a decline and i got faked out earlier. No real harm done as I just lost a few pennies on the price.

    1. Nada

      Gold shall rise into FOMC. There is ZERO chance of hike. Dollar will put final ICL in on FOMC or days after. Long gold you must.

  21. Christian

    JJ — I’m pretty sure DUST will tag the 50 DMA but I’m flexible. Currently keeping an eye on GDX momentum and the Dollar.

  22. Goild

    Oh! Let us not forget the trade of the ANT.
    She thinks long term.
    The ant is not greedy, works every day, takes many little bits,
    and by the year’s end the ANT has a lot in store.

  23. roadrunner

    nada…it seems you are convinced that GLD will fill the gap higher. Do you have any consideration for the gaps on gld that are lower? And there are 2 or 3 last time i looked quickly.

  24. JJHarmen

    Nice play Lena but because you revealed your in and out prices, you might want to keep in mind that if the trade had gone bad, “pedestrian” would have been all over it in a second.

  25. Gary Post author

    I would be very careful here. The banksters fleeced the longs only two days ago with a very convincing bounce only to pull the rug out the next day.

    1. Gary Post author

      Very unlikely this was the DCL. Gold still hasn’t broken the daily cycle trend line.

      We went through this same premature bottom calling process in June. I tried to warn people then as well. Of course no one listened.

      1. Gary Post author

        If you are buying because you are afraid you are going to miss a rally… it’s probably too early.

        If you are so nervous you can barely bring yourself to pull the trigger… it’s probably the right time to buy.

        I see a lot of people worried about missing a rally. Just like they were in June.

        When I see everyone more worried about price continuing lower then I would be more inclined to think we’ve found a cycle bottom. DCL’s are supposed to be f**king scary. I don’t see a lot of scared people yet.

    1. Pedestrian

      You are talking my language. Energy is a dud. As the dollar starts to rise again crude is going to get a big kick in the nuts and go down hard. I have serious doubts ERX ever gets back to 29 and suspect Gary and the boys will end up selling at a loss (but don’t tell them I said that).

  26. Jimsee

    bot back some /gc puts on the bounce here > 1330 hope to be wrong on these – they are free so as a hedge it makes sense.

    1. Nada

      The close will be important. I would like to see a close over 10ema, but more importantly – when we open at 6pm eastern. if we see a move down first, then we are bull. Cheers.

  27. Alexandru Popovici

    Financials – great fight at 50dma! As expected market would struggle to mark this top.
    Now it’s time to short SM and to be long defensives.

    PS: Gold’s trend line was breached: it was between the lows of Aug25 and Aug 31 due to subsequent failed swing highs.

    1. Nada

      The one thing that keeps me from having a large exposure on this swing of GLD options is that you are on the same side of the trade with me Alex πŸ™‚

      1. Nada

        When I hear Alex and stocks, I am always reminded of the “Great Scorch” he predicted as he tried to short the SM again and again after Trump’s election.

  28. Pedestrian

    Pretty sure base metals (BDD) has topped this month. Down it goes along with the precious group. I really cannot understand the bulls on this site. I mean, I have no idea what charts you people look at to make decisions but you are all going to be wrong. Pretty sure most of you are just plain old gamblers.

    1. Nada

      Ped I am not sure why they are having a hard time understanding your viewpoint of the metals. To me, I thought it was pretty clear – one last hurrah in PMs before they rolled. Meanwhile, we wait for Kim to send the American bastards a gift package.

      1. Pedestrian

        Yeah, they are a pretty mixed up group. Hostile as hell too. I used to think I was helping by talking technicals but time and again it proves a waste of time with certain types who buy gold for reasons other than profit. There is a philosophy to their golden idealism I suppose but I don’t subscribe since its pretty much bullshit!

    2. Bluebellkid

      BDD bounced off the 50 day nicely and is now near the top of the weekly trading range and weekly volume is already above average (which at 3300 is not much) with a day of trading left in the week so good luck betting against that.

  29. Gary Post author

    My goodness how much money has to be lost before people listen to me about trying to short the bubble phase in the stock market?

    It’s like a moth to the flame.

  30. Spanky

    AXU closed with a bullish inverted hammer.

    Hoping for a gap up tomorrow morning in the metals and yen. Could really go either way, but there is what should be major support on the yen (the bullishly aligned 50 and 100 dma) just below current price. You would think we should at least get a large bounce here to keep shorts honest.

    Odds are we get a day of noise tomorrow due to upcoming FOMC, but there is at least a chance we get a large bid in the metals.

  31. Troy

    Large SOS for GDX and GDXJ. Looks like Gary will be right on another fleecing of the longs. I will wait for the DCL and Gary’s call to buy them back.

    1. Spanky

      Whatever. I’ll admit I would prefer if the SoS weren’t there, but to act like this is some sort of definitive indicator is complete nonsense. If it were a perfect indicator, you could make a fortune just buying or selling afterhours.

  32. Spanky

    The last time the yen’s ($xjy) 50, 100 and 200 dma were bullishly crossed over and were in perfect alignment was February 2016.

    We have the same situation now. Back in 2016, yen dropped dramatically to test the 200 dma before skyrocketing. I don’t think we are going to see anything that dramatic.

    I think yen bottomed right here, bouncing off the 50 and 100 dma today.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51957027755&a=544584687&listNum=1

  33. ras

    No bubble in tqqq yet. soxl seems to be on a different wavelength. erx does one retrace. Is that it for a while?

    1. Gary Post author

      Energy stocks are getting excessively bullish again. They will need another down day or two.

      I expect we’ll see the same calls again that I was wrong just like we did five days ago.

      People seriously get a subscription to sentimentrader so you stop making these mistakes. At least you will know when to expect short term corrections and won’t get sidetracked by them.

  34. Gary Post author

    All I can do is try to caution traders that gold needs to break the cycle uptrend line and the 10 DMA needs to turn down before one tries to call a cycle low. These two rules almost never get broken.

    Do we really want to repeat the same mistakes that were made in June?

    1. Spanky

      I don’t see anyone going whole hog gold and miners here.

      Even I would say that if we were to move back up near the top of the range in gold and the miners, I would expect to come right back down to these levels or maybe below on the next DCL.

      No one is expecting a sustained break out past $1370.

        1. Pedestrian

          Launch on a Thursday? What the hell. Kim got no wad for the weekend now. I wonder whats up. This happened after markets closed of course but we usually get some suspense until Saturday at least.

          So does this mean its the US turn to return fire? Will that be the Sunday news story?

          Quick look at the charts. Yen spiked some 55 points. Nikkei futures spiked down. But not that much. Are traders getting dulled to these theatrics maybe? This could only have been a prelude to something more as I see it.

          Anyway, gold is up a little and probably on the move higher tomorrow. Probably going to retest the high as expected. All those guys selling on strength today will be pissed. But that just how the market works. Got to get most people on the wrong side so the money is left for others.

  35. Spanky

    $USDJPY hovering right around the magic number–110.

    Needless to say, will be interesting to see what happens at tomorrow’s open and then into the close.

    1. Pedestrian

      Ignore the after hours info. We already got the news on Yen during the days trading when Yen/$ dropped below its channel line signaling the bearish trend is confirmed. Expect more downside once this little bump has run its course by end of day tomorrow. In other words: Short gold.

  36. Pedestrian

    Yeah, I see that Blue. But call me a big old doubter. I think she’s hit top or damned close too it and the next major move is down. The dollar will be the ultimate arbiter and the dollar looks primed and fueled for a rise. Probably that’s what Little Kim’s rocket is telling us about today. The bugs will get all hot to trot tomorrow and spend big all day tomorrow in anticipation of a big gold pop. But instead with the dollar about to soar they will wake up Monday morning to a flop.

    God love em. But you can’t fix stupid.

    1. Pedestrian

      Above comment misplaced but was responding to Bluebellkids comment that DBB is in a bullish set up on top of its 50 dma (which naturally I disagree with). Anyway, forget that DBB chart. All that matters now is dollars/euro and the reversal is here. Kim Kongs fireworks announced the news a short while back. While the bugs revel in glory at the thought their “little precious” ornament is going to be on fire soon there are cannons filled with RAID (c) being locked and loaded to knock them bugs out of the sky. Poor little buggers won’t know what hit them. I predict a catastrophic drop in gold during the fall. Talking at least 250 dollars peak to trough.

      Hand me that spray can!

  37. Bluebellkid

    Short Interest Ratio
    Among secondary indicators, the NYSE short interest ratio hit 5.51 Wednesday, matching a five-year high. The last time the ratio was that high was Sept. 18, 2014. The S&P 500 dropped 9% over the next month, while the Nasdaq fell 10%.
    Secondary indicators, however, can frequently be wrong. That’s why they are called secondary. Perhaps their best use is persuading individual investors to study the price-and-volume action of the major indexes more closely. That’s an investor’s primary indicator.

  38. Christian

    Nada licking his chops πŸ™‚ I’ll bet you 1 BIG ASS BURRITO that Gold rolls over after this dead cat bounce.

    Never let the news trade for you my good man.

    1. Pedestrian

      Just made another chart discovery. Wow. Back tested and worked fine. Now I need a new hobby. Maybe bird watching.

      1. JJHarmen

        Ped, you got gold wrong, the dollar wrong, crude wrong and looks you are wrong on bitcoin.
        Your chart reading skills are rapidly becoming legendary. I’ll bet your even Gary gets a good laugh at the buffoonery of his creation.

  39. AussieMike

    Hi Gary
    Your thoughts please.
    Just confirming. When this next ICL for Gold hits – it should still be above the July2017 low of $1204 to maintain your longer term view that gold is now in a new Bull market?
    And that the bottom should be at the next SHORT DCL in Gold probably due around late October?

    thanks

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s still a bit too early to tell if the short cycle scenario is in play but I do not think gold will drop below the July low.

      1. Pedestrian

        Take a look at this weekly chart of gold Gary. Now try to superimpose a short cycle scenario on that pattern that currently exists and what do you see? It’s what I was telling you all along. The impending decline will turn that 2016/2017 period into a very clear bearish double-top. That’s all it has been all along. This was never a bull market in gold and confirmation of that will be when price goes lower than you forecast and gold closes out the year below 1200 dollars.
        https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=GC&p=w1

        1. Gary Post author

          I see higher lows. I see a final bear market bottom in 2015. The next 8 year cycle low won’t be due until 2023. So unless you think gold is going back to $250 there’s no way this 8 year cycle has already topped.

    1. Pedestrian

      Agree 100% Ras. Chevron has hit the top. The chart is unambiguous in my view. She’s done like dinner.

  40. Gary Post author

    I’m showing gold isn’t even above 1340? It hasn’t even recovered the 10 DMA?

    At this point it’s just a normal retest of the 10 DMA from the underneath.

    1. Pedestrian

      I have the 10DMA at 1336.33 on Stockcharts and gold now at 1336.80 so a tiny bit over now.

      Interesting set up here. I would like to see price exceed 1340 tonight which would virtually guarantee a retest of the top sometime next week. This drags out the inevitable decline of course but would put a pair of gloomy ears on top of the price pattern. Not that I need that anyway since my mind is already made up. But it fits with my idea we don’t get a real decline until about the time of the FOMC.

    1. Pedestrian

      Christian, I am sure you won’t want to hear this but I think ERX hit top today. It came in a little shy of the 27.50 I was suggesting (eyeball estimate). If you look at it today price is coming right up to resistance, the CCI has rolled over and she’s put a daily reversal candle up. If the dollar does turn higher (it will) then chances are this is the end of the road and you won’t get another exit for a very long time. Check the chart yourself. But I would not hold it from here on out.

      Just an opinion of course. Do your own thing.

      1. Bigdaddy

        Pedo/Gary, your technical studies are mumbo-jumbo and don’t work but i agree that ERX is not a good buy right now. My sources tell me this crude rally is for suckers and it’s going to fizzle out.

  41. Pedestrian

    Here’s a really nice chart of GBTC (Bitcoin Trust) via FullGoldCrown over at GoldTent that everyone here might want to have a look at. Recall yesterday I was saying how nice the chart setup looked and well, today its even better. (At least to my eyes).

    Notice the near perfect fib retrace as one example. Or how it coincides oddly with GBTC being almost at its exact mid-way price point from top to bottom. There are really too many features to cover in this short post but you Elliot wavers might easily see that what comes next is the fifth and final parabolic wave up.

    Some squinting is naturally required in tune with all Elliot Wave predictions.

    My opinion though? I think this thing is going to have one final monster rally. That’s just how the set-up appears. And probably a Tulip Bulb finish with plenty of crying and gnashing of teeth when its all said and done. I can’t get past this thing though without leaving a remark. I really love this chart pattern.

    https://goldtadise.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/gbtc.png

    1. bginvestor

      I bought GBTC at 502 today which is about 50% of what it was 10 ten days ago. I use BTCUSD for charting and its between .5 and .618 fib right now.

      Do we really think China wants to take them selves out of the Bitcoin space? (answer : no)

  42. Nada

    Christian. I am mostly joking about gold to the moon. I entered the GLD 125 calls yestersay at 1320i and at the same time closed my puts. I am playing for a gap fill, but gold going 20-30 pts higher is possible. You know it likes extremes. If it gap fills, I will scale out 75% of position and trail the rest. I may wake up in the morning to red gold, no biggie. I have some padding and only around 2.5k on the table. I am looking forward to the upcoming ICL to ride in puts, when it ever comes. But for noe, I want that burrito.

  43. Bigdaddy

    Just dropping in to see what everyone has to say about NK launching another missile. Looks like it’s mostly just Pedo with his usual verbal diarrhea. It is sorta funny watching him make predictions from his chart studies that never work out worth a shit.

  44. Bigdaddy

    I have been doing my own chart studying and i wish i had bought more LABD today than what i have already. The IBB chart looks sickly and ready for a sizable drop. You guys better get on LABD tomorrow or in off hours, if possible. FB looks bad too.

  45. jabalong

    Gary, a question about the short cycle.

    If I understand correctly, you believe this is the first daily cycle line on a stretched daily cycle. But you’re saying it could also be an intermediate decline on a short intermediate cycle.

    So how many daily cycles would you expect in a short intermediate cycle? If we’ve had one long first one, the next couple would then need to be short, no?

    Just trying to wrap my head around how a stretched daily cycle can fit in a shortened intermediate cycle.

    1. Nada

      Yeah, baked into the price. We had 48hrs notice that he was fueling his birds. Last time, the pass into Japan airspace was extra fuel for an already bull gold algo. He needs to be a bit more original – maybe a test flight over Guam will give the algos a hard on.

  46. Alexandru Popovici

    GARY & All – a warning!!!!

    Still in doubt about shorting SM now being viable?
    Watch out FTSE sinking after it had….its ICL just 2 weeks ago alongside the other SM indexes!

    WE HAVE ALL INGREDIENTS OF A STOCK MARKET FINAL LEG DOWN TO ITS YEARLY CYCLE LOW AND MOST OF ALL: WE HAVE A LEADER, A MARKER SHOWING US THE TRUTH – FTSE100 INDEX!

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      On year 1929 – remember:
      I remember a comment I have read in one of the many trading books, I do not remember the exact author or the book (I think it was John Murphy in one of his intermarket analysis books, though) but it said something like ….had people back in 1929 minded to the correction of London stock market which had started in 1928, many American investors would have been saved noticing the toppish US SM while the SM over the waters had already topped.

      The leading, gentle whisper of lady Market…can you hear it ???

  47. Alexandru Popovici

    should any SM bull try to discount the drop of FTSE on the grounds of the subway terrorist attack, one should consider that the attack occurred today at some 8:30 London time while the cyclish failure below the AUG29 low and the close below the 200dma happened yesterday – today is just a follow-through.

  48. Jimsee

    retest low for gold today bef 9, high set 2-2:30? Intraday timing is never easy but sometimes works wonders.

  49. Goild

    Good morning,

    It appears today will be a good day for gold.
    Perhaps only in the morning.
    Play preferably JNUG long.

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