147 thoughts on “NDX 6000

  1. Steffmeister

    I must be the No.1 new movie trigger on this blog šŸ˜›

    Ok, fair enough, all analysts are so focused on US indecies, how about India, Russia and China?

    I’m trying to buy cheap and sell expensive. Thats why my pensionfunds are invested in the East (ex. Japan of course) not the West. The Western stockmarket gains are only a reflection of a dying currency, no real growth.

    I wonder how will a rise in US/Europe affect the rest of the world?

  2. Nada

    Posted this on last blog. Gold scenario

    1. Bottom around these levels and then attack $1,400.

    2. The next daily cycle fails to make a new high, rolls over and drops below $1,204 (a left translated IC)

    3. A short cycle that peaked at $1,362 but bottoms above the July $1,204 low

  3. goldbug

    This will not happen until the Fed changes it’s position on QT. The markets have already started to fear that the Fed has stopped pumping them up or at least they are wondering if the Fed has come to be afraid of inflating the bubble to the limit of popping up. Also, watch the dollar: it looks extremely vulnerable.

    1. Gary Post author

      The damage has already been done. The Fed can’t stop it now. the ball is already rolling downhill.

      The time to avert the bubble was way back in 2013. They needed to be raising rates and shrinking their balance sheet at that point. Now it’s way too late.

  4. JJHarmen

    North Korea’s threats are having less and less effect on the markets. Kim Jong must be finding it tougher to make a buck by shorting the markets and buying gold. The markets are react for about an hour and then it’s BTFD time.

    1. Gary Post author

      Everyone by now has figured out he’s just bluffing. He can’t actually start a war with the US. It would be over in 24 hours.

    2. Bigdaddy

      JJ. I think Kim was caught by camera with his monitors showing the markets while he was watching a missile launch. It’s true, seriously. The SEC should nail that turd.

    1. Lenapowich

      BD, OMGOD, those comments are hilarious! Thanks for the morning laugh. BD, if you don’t mind me asking, do you have any gold related assets now?

      1. Bigdaddy

        Good morning Lena, glad you enjoyed my ‘find’. My PM holding now consist of a stake in a Canadian junior ETF (ZJG) with 3000 shares at 9.39. I can see today being an up day for gold and the miners but the ‘rug pulls’ are getting tiresome.

  5. goldfu

    Gold has bottomed. Gary seems to be wrong on Gold a times and I am betting he is wrong on his latest call.

    1. Nada

      Gold needs to get over 1303 on /GC and we may have a shot at forming a swing today. However, the scenario’s I outlined in an earlier post this morning are all on the table. Gary’s call has about as much probability as the others. What I like is he has the balls to make a call.

    2. Gary Post author

      Maybe you haven’t actually read my call.

      Gold is close to a temporary bottom. I tend to think it’s going to come next week, maybe when the yen tags the intermediate trend line. But it may have occurred yesterday.

      But the final intermediate bottom won’t be until October.

      Seriously how many times do you people have to ignore my calls and then watch me get it right before you pay attention?

  6. AT

    New trade: Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25 ā€¦ back in cash

    Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
    Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
    Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
    Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
    Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
    Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
    Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
    Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
    Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
    Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
    Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
    Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
    Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
    Jul 17 buy 50% DUST 30.80
    Jul 14 sold 50% JNUG 16.92
    Jul 13 buy 50% JNUG 16.08
    Jul 11 sold 100% JNUG 16.56
    Jul 7 buy 50% JNUG 15.03
    Jul 6 buy 50% JNUG 16.46
    Jun 30 sell 50% DUST 31.48
    Jun 27 buy 50% DUST 30.05

  7. Goild

    Indeed this morning is good.
    I am done for the day and for the week with +++$3850 to enjoy the weekend.
    M +$800
    T +$500
    W +$925
    T $1010
    F +$625
    Have a nice weekend!!!
    Sleep well, do not carry sleeping worries.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Goild, you have got to be the most successful day trader in the entire world. Son, we are blessed to have you sharing the secrets behind your incredible performance. Going to write a book some day? I will buy it. Honest.

  8. Spanky

    Pretty meager bounce in the yen today. Anything could happen but on pure technicals, momentum in the metals sector is unequivocally down on every timeframe out to weeks. It would be nice if gold and GDX can close over their 10 week EMAs, as that is often a bright line between an IC that is advancing vs declining.

    1. Americano

      Best of luck. Perhaps a bit early though.
      LedgerX options market for Bitcoin starts Oct 4th. This isn’t like the scammy naked short options in gold/silver……gotta physically transfer ( that means hard wallet storage during period with LedgerX).
      PS – Gotta have $10 million net worth to have an account as an individual.
      Sorry Shorts:


    1. Gary Post author

      Yes we’ve gotten spoiled by the moon shot out of the YCL. At some point the rally will slow down but we should still have 1-3 more months before the larger intermediate top.

  9. Gary Post author

    Often there will be a divergence in the TSI at a final DCL. We don’t have one yet. In order to create one we need to have a bounce and then a lower low.

    Just by coincidence that’s what I’ve been looking for.

    1. Spanky

      That would be the likeliest scenario since yesterday’s candle in $gold would be difficult (although obviously not impossible) to form a swing low off of.

  10. Spanky

    FWIW $hui bounced off of the rising 200 DMA and is now basically sitting on the rising 50dma. It would be pretty disappointing if we broke below the 200 DMA again, especially since it and the 50dma are going up and are close together.

      1. Spanky

        Anything is possible in this crazy sector, but it is work noting that $hui’s 20 WMA is now above the 50 WMA, which is above the 100 WMA, which is above the 200 WMA, And they are all relatively very tight together. This hasn’t happened in as far back as the stockcharts data goes. Something epic is brewing.

  11. Bigdaddy

    I have a theory. The millennials are the next generation of stock buyers and we all know how easily their feelings are hurt so the SM is not allowed to be volatile because that would offend the cry babies and they might refuse to get in on the game. Without the millennials , who is going to hold the bag when the smart money wants to unload? Stupid sounding theory, i know but seriously, think about it, it sure isn’t going to be the baby boomers lining up to buy these grossly over inflated stocks.

  12. Bigdaddy

    FB has been pinned between 170 and 173 for almost three weeks. It’s making me sick of looking at it. Years ago a 170 dollar stock would have $10 swings on a daily basis. This is what happens when the markets are manged by central banks. No good for the gamblers (not that i am one, of course).

  13. Bigdaddy

    Gary, it’s time to take the muzzle off Pedo. Board to death here. I am talking with myself. Taking Mutt for his walk. maybe things will be better when i get back.

  14. Goild

    We need and should aim at posting excellence.
    Because we get what we put it.
    We need to attract talented and bright traders.
    We miss Don, Dday, and so may others.

  15. Bob

    I’m very much enjoying being able to read through the blog without having to skip over so many irrelevant and irrational personal comments. I’ve learned that some of those who tended toward the unfortunate personality approach actually have something useful to contribute which I wasn’t able to see before as it would get lost in their other crap. Kudos Gary.

  16. goldfu

    Did I call gold bottom today? Maybe not…

    Gary still could end up being correct with his prediction of some further nasty before a real run. Will see.

      1. goldfu

        You could be right about accumulation. It is still fighting to hold key 1300 support so if we get some more crazy talk soon by Kim or Trump it could get a run.

  17. Sassybabe

    Bigdaddy, when you bought silver (via USLV) last week, I bought SLV. Then you sold your stake and I kept my (now) losing SLV position. I am thinking to add more and average down. Good or bad idea? Anyone’s comment is appreciated. Ty.

    1. Bigdaddy

      Sassy, i don’t know what to think of gold and silver right now. I will keep my ZJG and may add to it but no leveraged stuff for the time being.

  18. Steffmeister

    jumped out of JNUG today after a staggering 2,23% profit šŸ˜› hopefully I will be able to get back in next week at 16-17 in a final flush out , looks like a minor H&S pattern is setting up in gold!?

  19. Sassybabe

    Where is the Dboz fellow? I could relate to his woes with the markets. I liked him and hope he has not disappeared for good.

    1. bill

      Hence the reason I stooped posting here, life itself is full of daily bull shit and drama, who needs it on a blog as well.

    2. Gary Post author

      There was plenty of rudeness from many people.

      Ped took the first step towards putting an end to it. I expect everyone else to follow his example.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think anything under 6000 is a good buy. You either want to be in before the NDX breaks out above 6000 or you want to have a buy stop right above that level so you get in on the breakout.

  20. Bigdaddy

    Not much has changed in two hours but at least FB has finally dipped under $170. One of these days that stock is going to dump big. It is useless as an advertising medium and some big companies are beginning to realize that.

    1. Gary Post author

      Like I said, people will keep trying to call the top every other day all the way up. Heck they’ve been calling tops for 7 years.

      1. roadrunner

        That would also include yourself. You have called for a top a few times over the past 7 years. I think almost everyone has at some point. Not meant to be a criticism, just that we have never had a central bank environment like we have today. therefore there was no real way for anyone to know the outcome since 2009,

    1. Gary Post author

      Let me point out the obvious.

      If one doesn’t believe a bubble is possible then they certainly have no chance of making any money from one.

      Most people didn’t believe the baby bull was possible. Consequently most people failed to make any money off that either.

      At the very beginning and very end of a bull market are the hardest times to stay invested. Yet they are the times when the most money can be made the quickest.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’d also point out that my time frame for gold was 2018. I may be off by a year or two but the bubble in gold shouldn’t be too far off from 2018.

      1. Gary Post author

        Actually I have a thing for history.

        If the Fed keeps doing the same thing over and over it seems reasonable to expect the same outcome. Correct?

        Every big bull market has a euphoria phase. We clearly still don’t have that yet in the stock market. I’ve shown the ROBO ratio several times before and we are nowhere near the wildly bullish levels that signal major tops yet.

        Gold also hasn’t delivered anything that I can clearly identify as a bubble so I assume that lies ahead as well.

  21. JJHarmen

    I would think that before a bubble were to commence in earnest , there should be a scary correction beforehand. I am thinking somewhere in the 10% range to get everyone on the wrong side.

    1. Gary Post author

      What do you think the 7 YCL was?

      It got virtually everyone call for a new bear market. Stocks dropped far enough to tag the 200 week moving average. I’ve done videos previously pointing out this almost always happens before a bubble starts. The LTCM scare in 98 set the stage for the 2000 bubble.

      The pullback to $50 in oil in early 2007 set the stage for the oil bubble.

      The bear market in gold set the stage for the gold bubble, we just need the stock bubble to finish first.

  22. Jimsee

    new highs in gold by sep 27? or merely a retest high, structurally we have peaked but never forget the explosive nature of some of these cycles (sep 20) was ‘supposed’ to be a violent high retest – but the violence came to the downside…so…

  23. primetime

    I think that is what most have expected, a >10% correction and then the bubble. I am also waiting on that scenario, but am prepared to jump in at a moments notice. Maybe some are just getting impatient?

  24. primetime

    It is just like everyone tells me with gold, if the Nasdaq is going to >10,000, there will be plenty of time!

  25. JJHarmen

    The Russell 2000 is very close to making an all time high. It was just a month ago that analysts were pointing to the weakness of the small caps.

    1. Bluebellkid

      Small caps have outperformed recently – 3 reasons this is a good sign:
      First, the traditional interpretation is that strength in small caps points to a healthy appetite for risk.
      Second, small companies are more flexible than large-cap companies, allowing them to adjust to change more rapidly than their bigger brothers.
      Third, small caps have a tie to manufacturing, and manufacturing in the U.S. is strengthening. (The Philadelphia Fed manufacturing gauge rose to 23.8 in September, topping the highest estimate in the range. Last week, the Empire State manufacturing survey rose to 24.4, also the highest estimate in the range.)

      1. Spanky

        You certainly could be right. No way in hell I would short the market.

        But, typically true bubbles have an accompanying fundamental story, which is really what is needed to get the masses to pile in. This time, there is no such fundamental story fueling this ridiculous ramp job. This time, it’s liquidity, pure and simple. Now, that may be enough to send the market much much higher in nominal terms (see Zimbabwe, Venezuela and Weimar Republic stock markets), but investors should actually lose out in real terms (i.e., vs commodities and gold).

        The fact is the Fed is supposedly going to reduce its balance sheet–i.e., reduce liquidity and the money supply. This in theory should cause interest rates to rise. Corporate debt (risk) competes against government bonds (“risk free”), so as government yields go up, corporate yields must also go up. This should put the kabash on buybacks in theory.

        While the stock market may not crash, to argue that this is the backdrop for a vertical rise in the stock market is highly dubious IMO.

        Just saying.

        1. Gary Post author

          Earnings are up 20% YoY for the last three quarters.

          The fundamental story is the same as it was when this started in 2009. Central banks are creating inflation and the inflation has to land on something.

          Since the bottom of the 7 YCL in 2016 it has been more or less landing on everything but concentrating more in stocks. That should continue until the bubble in stocks pops. Then the inflation will focus in the commodity markets.

          1. Spanky

            Are you saying earnings alone are going to lead to a doubling in the Nasdaq in the next year?

            Also, is that earnings figure you are touting on a per share basis? Because if it is, think about how much stock buybacks have distorted that value.

            A grind higher, sure. Vertical phase? No way. Not without a dollar collapse (and I mean a true crash) and at that point gold will smoke equities.

          2. Gary Post author

            Bubbles are about emotions not fundamentals. But there is no catalyst for stocks to start a bear market. Sentiment is far from bull market tops. The AD line isn’t diverging. The economically sensitive semi’s are leading, and the banks are strong.

  26. spectrum2105

    Gary –

    The gold AND stock market cycle lows are both due in 2023?

    How does that line up timing wise with the SM bubble and subsequent PM bubble?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m expecting a top in stocks sometime in early to mid 2018. Gold maybe in 2019-20.

      Then we should get another deflationary event that takes everything down. So 2023 sounds pretty close I’d say.

      1. jacob2

        Yep, tend to agree. Think we may have already peaked internally. Favor a top with late cyclicals and EM leadership. Also think bio’s and semi’s participate but no longer lead… fwiw. Pm’s bidding there time.

    1. vin

      Spanky, my friend, how is that possible? Gary is of the opinion that SM is going to double or even quadruple in a short period of time. In addition he says: “Iā€™m expecting a top in stocks sometime in early to mid 2018.”. So, we have less significantly less than ONE year? And, I am going to make sooooo mooooch money!!

      I am going to sell everything I have including my slippers and buy tqqq. Can you imagine how rich shall I become???

      I will recover all the money I have lost in jnug and then make a handsome profit. And, after that in 2019 gold is going to shoot up: “Gold maybe in 2019-20.”. And then jnug will go to 2000 or “much higher”. O Man! I will be rich and happy beyond description.

      Wish me well. And, I wish that you make a lot of dough as well. And then, ……. may be we can both go to a casino sip on a nice single malt and enjoy life.

  27. loneranger

    I placed my bet on BA going down a few days the first of next week. It closed with a shooting star back inside its Bolinger bands. Something to do while waiting on miners.

  28. Goild

    Gary as anyone else in this business has been wrong.
    Gary as anyone else in this business has been right.
    Garry as any other leader must paint fabulous stories.

  29. Pedestrian

    Next week I am buying miners and gold. I have been waiting patiently the last few days for a bottom to start forming and it looks like we have nearly arrived, Next stop on gold is going to be the one that got away. A double top in other words but not just any double top. I am pretty sure this next move up is going to take us all the way to 1400 dollars before it starts to run out of steam. So I am back in the bull camp (soon) and looking for a very strong rally with lots of energy to burn. A 100 dollar move is expected. A little more would set the scene of a bloody trap as the fresh faced bulls piled on like kids at a Christmas day snowball fight before they get mowed down by a drunk on a snowplow. What ever happens next won’t be a move much lower. Jnug has maybe two bucks decline in it maximum before it hits support. I loved this recent decline naturally. But I am going to love this bounce back even better because the majority is always on the side of assets as they rise but thin on the ground during declines. I will be picking my moment with care naturally but hope to be on board in a timelier manner than I was with this fall. Kind of bugged me but I hesitated and then missed the first few days of the drop.

    After 1400 hundred its short train down again. That’s the plan anyway.

    1. vin

      Thank you, Pedestrian. I will probably take a dive as well if I get a chance.

      But, why do you feel that 1400 is a line in the sand? I “feel” it will go higher before it comes down much. I also “feel” that by 2018 summer (or somewhere around there) we will see 1500+. Your opinion will be highly appreciated.

      1. Pedestrian

        Sure thing Vin. There are a couple peaks on gold that I am using to project the next run higher.

        You can locate them on the daily chart as the tops of February and April. These two point will create the primary resistance line on the coming rise. They are a rough guideline though. Gold could go higher or fall a little shy but the general idea sees gold very close to the 1400 mark before a reversal kicks in.

        The longer we take to get there the higher the eventual price will be when it tops. So if we ran three weeks or more it would actually take us over 1400 dollars but then my bias would be to start planning seriously for an exit and a new short position.

        I am looking for gold to bottom out pretty darn close to 1280. The pivot point I am using as a target is a little harder to spot but if you are curious about my method I will explain it anyway. Using the same daily chart of gold I already linked, what you want to locate is a single green candle (spike high) on the tenth trading day of June. So just count the June bars until you hit that little green candle and that’s my target low for early next week.

        Use the peaks of Feb and April and then run your resistance line to a coming imaginary top

        1. Pedestrian

          Just to clarify, I am expecting the 1280 number to arrive first and the 1400+ level to follow. After reaching a new peak we have what looks like a steep fall in gold prices during November and December.

          Here is a second way to find the upper resistance channel of the next rise.

          If you turn to the weekly chart and then draw a line using the highs of 2015 and 2016 out to your imaginary point in late 2017, that creates a slightly different channel but one that is fairly close to the point you arrived at using the daily chart. It is also above 1400 dollars but not by much and since its a weekly chart the resistance will be more formidable.


          1. vin

            Thanks again Pedestrian. I had a quick look and it does make sense to me. I will look at it more seriously when I can afford some time without being shot at by the boss.

          2. Pedestrian

            Glad I could help Vin. Channel trading is a great way to pass the time anyway. It does not always work out but where it is helpful is it usually keeps you focused on the correct side of the market if you are using supporting technicals like Bollingers, RSI, Stochastics and that sort of thing.

            I mean, if you see that gold is overbought and you are closing in on an important support level you are generally pretty safe selling the target and getting the hell out. Vice versa for tops. Gold has actually being pretty kind to us lately with turns at support and resistance levels.

    1. Pedestrian

      I think what I am actually seeing with this impending gold bounce is the mythical and much awaited stock market correction. I am not much for such calls though since I virtually always get them wrong but in the context of gold it almost makes sense and seasonally its perfect.

      Red October coming. Keep your wits about you.

    2. Nada

      Says the guy who posts day after day how much money he makes, bought his wife a new car and tells us how is the ant.

  30. Gary Post author

    The dollar is still just a little short of tagging the lower megaphone trend line. Plus as I noted in my last video the yen has a little further to fall before tagging its IC trend line. At that spot I would expect a bounce.

    So yes I do think gold is just about ready to give us a rally. But unless the dollar is just going to slice through the trendline and the yen isn’t going to produce an ICL I’m doubtful that gold will continue to make higher highs during this intermediate cycle.

    After three long cycles it probably needs at least one short cycle. And the dollar, euro and yen need to produce some kind of counter trend move before the cyclical trends resume.

    1. Pedestrian

      I didn’t think so at first either Gary. Remember the way the set up looked pretty recently was that gold was going to take a header. But when the technicals started to signal a bottom the last couple days then I began projecting likely resistance tops and was kind of surprised that more than 1400 could be in the cards. We won’t know until we get there of course so I don’t want to sound too sure but a cycle up or 3 to 4 weeks suggests a higher high.

      (yeah, I know. How nuts is that).

      1. Clarence

        Ped, are you still following MUX ? It’s taken a tumble, do you think it will move up accordingly in your scenario, or are there better options ?

        1. Pedestrian

          Yes, big dive on that stock. Lost a third of its value this month. I am definitely interested in the bounce that’s coming from oversold levels but would not hold long term just yet. Weekly stochastics suggest it will be going lower following a bounce so its a relatively short term bet. It seems to be working out a pattern here.

          Currently its in the lower range of its price. Bollingers have been violated in the lower side. Oversold conditions can remain that way longer than one expects though. I have long had a tendency to want to enter as soon as the technicals look right but its often better to just let bottoms consolidate for awhile first.

          Will it bounce next week? I don’t know. Maybe and maybe not. But it WILL bounce back. Just depends on how patient you feel about waiting for the move. Just remember to sell it again once it hits its next top. Maybe end of October.

          1. Clarence

            Much appreciated.

            Do you see end of October as the approx time for this next bounce to top, or is that something specific to MUX ?

          2. Pedestrian

            I am just estimating Clarence. If you are looking at the daily chart what you see is a very nice rhythm to the rise and fall of gold. There is a clear cycle up and down that ranges from two to four weeks for each rise and fall.

            The July-August period was almost double the usual length though and is probably two cycles combined but it sure was not easy to read as it developed and I got completely screwed up with my counts in the process as gold blew right through one resistance zone after another.

            So while the patterns looks obvious enough in retrospect there is still quite a bit of latitude in the time sequences and thus end of October is just a guideline to help keep me focused. We need to use other technicals as the chart evolves to narrow the move down to the few days window before a reversal comes. Some guys are brilliant at cycle counts but I will admit they trouble me a lot since they can vary so widely. Maybe Surf has a comment to add since he is better at locating the turning points.

          3. Clarence

            I always appreciate your posts/feedback.

            And I appreciate (although not necessary) your politely worded disclaimer. No worries, I am not investing based solely on your posts. I would hope nobody on this forum would be doing that and we are all responsible for our own actions.

            What really shocked me was your sudden overly bullish outlook.

            Thank you for the timely and informed response.

          4. Pedestrian

            Anytime Clarence. No problem.

            So what I did was just plugged my favourite indicators into the daily and weekly gold charts plus a few stocks and was kind of surprised how fast this brief decline sent it into oversold. I still think gold needs to fall more btw. I am just getting mentally prepared for a reversal that now looks like it will happen sooner than first anticipated.

  31. bginvestor

    I’m currently working this swing low..


    Even got JNUG in the funny money Gary challenge yesterday ..

    On deck PPLT, SLV

  32. jake

    Still a lot of Comex open interest on AU and no midnight stop run yet. Wonder if the culprits are planning their next heist after the last big one was reversed?

  33. goldfu

    N Korea nuc test reported this morning. I think I was correct the first time when I said I thought gold bottomed 2 days back. I think this N Korea stuff puts a floor for gold at 1300.

    1. Clarence

      Iran also test-fired. We have entered a whole new world and the USA is NOT calling the shots:

      Iran tests new ballistic missile: state media
      Defying US warnings, state media shows test of Khoramshahr missile hours after it was unveiled during a military parade.

      Iran has “successfully” tested a new ballistic missile that can carry multiple warheads and can travel up to 2,000km, according to state media.

      The news of the test comes just hours after Iran’s Revolutionary Guard unveiled the missile during a military parade in Tehran.

      The move was a direct challenge to US President Donald Trump, who in August signed a bill imposing mandatory penalties on those involved in Iran’s ballistic missile programme and anyone who does business with those involved in the programme.

      READ MORE – Iran’s Khamenei: Tehran will not bow to US bullying

      Though Iran has long boasted of having missiles in the same range in its arsenal, it was the first time that the Khoramshahr missile was displayed in public.

      Trump has vowed repeatedly to take a tougher line towards Iran, threatening at various time to renegotiate or dismantle the 2015 nuclear deal, and shoot Iranian boats out of the water if they provoke US naval vessels.

      ‘Boost military capabilities’

      Iranian President Hassan Rouhani addressed Friday’s parade in Tehran, saying that Iran would not halt its missile programme and would continue to boost military capabilities, despite US warnings and demands.

      ‘Absurd and hateful’: Iran’s Rouhani hits back at Trump
      “We will strengthen our defence and military capabilities … whether you want it or not,” Rouhani said, a direct response to Trump’s speech at the UN General Assembly this week.

      Rouhani has said that the Trump administration is seeking “an excuse” to pull out of the landmark 2015 nuclear agreement that capped Iran’s nuclear activities in return for the lifting of international sanctions on Iran.

      The deal between Iran and world powers does not strictly prohibit Iran from developing missiles, but after the agreement came into effect last year, the UN Security Council adopted a resolution calling on Iran not to take any actions related to ballistic missiles “designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons” for eight years.

      Tehran has argued that the tests are solely for defensive purposes and notes the Security Council measure only applies to missiles specifically designed to carry nuclear warheads.

      READ MORE: UN nuclear watchdog defends Iran agreement

      In February, Iran test-fired the same medium-range type of missile, prompting Trump to say that the United States is “putting Iran on notice”.

      The report of the test, shown late on Friday on state television, did not mention the time or location of the test.

  34. LiesandDamnLies

    Hi Gary

    My question

    If the bubble faze in the SM market does not fully eventuate but continues to steadily gain ground with some sideways momentum at the roughly the same rate as it has done for the last five years. Whats your call? Will the market turn sometime in 2018 (or be postponed) and then will the gold markets not surge afterwards as you anticipated.

    cheers Lies

    1. LiesandDamnLies

      Hi Gary

      The essence of my question why the SM bubble faze in the next year or in two or three years time.

      Your call for ICL in gold late October and a gain afterwards would indicate the SM weaker in November and to December.

      A Santa rally expected from Mid December to the early part of next year. (a usual predictable play)

      The only rises in the SM seem to be from now to late October a fall back to mid December (with gold rising for a while) and then a Santa Rally from mid December to early next year.

      Or in your eyes is this Santa rally going to continue for several months?

      cheers Lies

      1. Gary Post author

        Both the Nasdaq and Dow have broken out of their long term bull market trend channels. As I pointed out in the video the rallies are becoming more aggressive now as we enter the bubble phase. The only question is when does the vertical phase begin?

        My guess is it will begin when the NDX breaks through 6000.

        1. jacob2

          Whose going to lead the charge? Many of the old generals look tired: AAPL,AMZN,TSLA. Personally, favor a rolling top with different leadership. Blow off or rolling top or whatever going to have to happen soon ie. within the next 6 months as this bull is about done.

  35. Pedestrian

    Looks like copper is preparing to bounce here. Like gold its sitting on top of the 50 SMA and has gotten to be fairly oversold after a relatively brief decline. At the moment its back testing a support line that looks good to hold. But like gold I would watch this one for signs it could head back down fairly quickly once it gets this bounce out of the way.

  36. Goild

    Well, it is Saturday afternoon.
    I am half gone thought a nice glass of wine.

    But the thing is to have a plan.
    No plan means missed opportunities.
    It looks like pyramiding is the way to go.
    It is very hard to catch the very bottom.
    What about starting with 500 JNUG shares.
    Then add another 500 for every dollar it goes up.

  37. Goild

    I drove the nice car for the first time today.
    It has so many buttons that it is hard to figure it out.
    It has no emergency break. I guess the car is smart.
    I do not even know how to use a cell phone, I only know pretty much how to dial a number, the alarm clock so I can wake up to be ready to trade, oh, and of course, how to place a trade.
    Imagine, how much time people spend caressing their cell phones, and they have to pay for it.
    I am simple minded, I better improve on my trading and get more bucks.

    Nada, please, do not scold me, grab a glass of wine and have a god toast,

  38. mexican

    Hold all the ponies on Gold, my gut feeling is a few more day’s bounce and then the next leg down to 1220, this draw down in gold and then a bounce is to sucker in some more longs and hopeful’s,the upside rally was stretched and as Gary says the down side stretch will be big too.
    Unless something harsh happens with North Korea this is what i think is coming our way.

  39. Anthonyo

    Many disagree with the premature call for a bubble phase in stocks.

    Some are even calling for a up a 30% decline first for no reason at all.

    The notion that everyone realizes N. Korea is bluffing assumes a lot based on personal beliefs.
    Sorry, but he is not just bluffing; that will be a very trite view of what is going on.
    It will only take a missile or 2 targeting US territory r even Asian targets to send the Dow down 1200 points in ONE day.
    So Pls don’t base bubble theories on personal subjective feelings.
    Not everyone agrees with this simplistic and wishful thinking.

    Bubble phase will end in 2020, so calling for one now is at best premature.

  40. Goild

    First call:

    September/October have been kind of bad months for gold for a while.
    Last 2016 September gold drop to $1250.

    Well, I will wait a few more weeks and then I will get into either GDXJ or GDX and start pyramiding.
    Because it might be a multi week trade I would not get into JNUG or NUGT as the rats will chip away profits. Instead buy 3X GDXJ or GDX.

    This is the plan, so that when the miners really decide to go to the Moon I will be on the bandwagon.

  41. Goild

    Draw the lower Gold trend line from December 2016 to July 2017. When gold hits it around $1260 that will be the time to get in.

    Before gold rising the manipulators must inflict severe pain, they would like to maximize profit and punish all bears.

    Be aware that it may take in the form of a scary spike, the rats use many fearful tricks.

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