72 thoughts on “New thread”

  1. BestOfLuck

    Gary, I think you kept mentioning JNUG will go to $500, and that was since 4 months ago.

    JNUG had a 4-to-1 Reverse Split on 5/1/2017. So to keep your record in tact, you should state your JNUG target in one of these 2 ways:
    1) JNUG $2000 (and adjust this target everytime JNUG had a reverse split)
    2) JNUG $500, Pre-Split 5/1/2017.

    We all know you have a credibility issue, and being clear from now on would only help you building your credibility.

    Thanks
    Sean

      1. Nada

        Ha, I have noticed a slight uptick in recent attacks. Gary was fluffing his feathers yesterday, so I assume its a little karma at work.

        1. Gary Post author

          As long as I keep grinding out gains then it’s kind of just noise don’t you think?

          We logged another gain in the metal portfolio this morning. In the last 2 months we’ve gained 18%. Not earth shattering, but I don’t see how anyone could complain about 18% in two months. Most hedge funds would be ecstatic to make that in a year.

    2. Gary Post author

      No I don’t have any credibility issues. I make my trades in real time.

      I’ve covered this at least a dozen times.

      The biggest gains come during the bubble phase.

      JNUG will easily make it to $500 even split adjusted. It’s more realistic that it will make it to $1000. But here’s the hard part. It’s going to take 3-5 years to get there. Are you prepared to hold that long?

      If not then quit bugging me about it.

    3. victor

      “We all know….” you speak about yourself, and “we” discussed many times those 500$ JNUG and it’s split, you like fall out from the sky…

    4. Arthur

      “We all know you have a credibility issue”

      I just read a July 3, 2017 comment : (gold at $1219)

      “It appears the US Dollar has bottomed following an intermediate degree correction. This suggests that the dollar will rally for 6-8 weeks while gold heads lower. Gold has decisively broken down through its 200 dma. Traders are in a bull market mentality and will try to buy gold’s dips until sentiment becomes bearish. Expect gold to continue lower over the next 4- 8 weeks.”

      http://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/2017/07/gold-icl-confirmed.html

      1. Gary Post author

        LOL another classic example of cherry picking one call.

        Of course there’s no mention of how I warned everyone at the June top that gold needed to correct into an ICL. I did several videos and explained exactly what needed to happen. A break of the intermediate trend line, 3 waves down, and a failed daily cycle that would drop below the May low. I said over and over those minimum requirements had to happen. The perma bulls argued with me saying gold was getting ready to go to the moon.

        Yes I misjudged (at first) how long the dollar cycle would stretch (as has everyone else).

        But here’s the bottom line. I recognized the bottom in gold and adjusted. In the end the metal portfolio is now up 158% in less than 2 years.

        In the end it isn’t realistic to get every call correct. No one in the history of the world has ever done that. So to suggest I have a credibility issue because I initially underestimated how long the dollar would fall is simply ludicrous. What matters is did we make or lose money.

        We made money.

        Nice try though. 🙂

  3. Gary Post author

    Let me see if I can put this into perspective that most will understand.

    First off let’s begin with the fact that the biggest bull markets are spawned in the depths of the most destructive bear markets. The further the rubber band stretches in one direction the more violently it rebounds.

    The bear market in stocks was the second worst in history. It’s no mystery that is has given birth to one of the largest bull markets ever in stocks.

    At the beginning of the bull no one could have possibly imagined how big this bull would eventually be (and I don’t think its done yet).

    Now look at the chart of TQQQ over the life of the bull. From it’s meager beginnings in 2010 the triple leveraged tech fund has gained over 2300%. Keep in mind that TQQQ didn’t start trading until 2010 after the NDX had already gained over 100%. If we adjust for the missing part of the bull TQQQ would be up more like 3000-4000%.

    The relevant fact is that at the beginning no one could have possibly imagined TQQQ at $115.

    Now let’s look at the miners. which are basically in the same position right now that the Q’s were in at the beginning of 2010. The start of a major bull market. Only the miners suffered a much more destructive bear than stocks did. They lost almost 90% of their value. So if the rubber band theory works in this sector like it did in tech we should expect maybe the largest bull market in history. If we assume that JNUG only copies what TQQQ did during the bull market and only rallies 2300% we should expect it to reach $550.

    But miners are much more volatile than the NDX and the bear market was bigger. So I think JNUG will easily double the gains that have been produced by TQQQ during the tech bull.

    It’s almost impossible for anyone to imagine how far a bull market can go when it’s just beginning but I think I’ve shown that $500 is a completely realistic number for JNUG over the next 3-5 years.

    2. Spanky

      Are you recommending that people buy JNUG and hold on until the bull has topped?

      Are you personally buying JNUG and not selling until the bull has topped?

      If the answer to both of the above questions is “no,” what is the point of saying JNUg will go to 500, 5000 or 100,000. It’s pretty clear the answer to both is no, since you can’t even hold an unleveraged position in the miners into a DCL. You are literally trading the wiggles.

      1. Gary Post author

        In real time it’s not very easy to hold all the way through a bull market. The swings are just too big and volatile. One loses sight of the big picture during a big pullback. Case in point. The pullback after the election. It hasn’t changed the big picture at all, but I think we can all agree no one can mentally prepare for something like that and if it happens the big picture goes out the window.

        Maybe 1 in 1000 of my subscribers could hang on all the way through a bull in a 3X fund, so what’s the point of me telling them to do it?

        We’ll just try to make as much as we can with less volatile strategies.

        1. Spanky

          I give you a zero percent chance that you will come out ahead on this DC vs buy and hold.
          You are going to end up getting whipsawed. And then you will use 3xETFs to try and make up for your underperformance and end up MAYBE equaling buy and hold (I doubt it though) but you and your subscribers will have to suffer a lot of nervousness and anxiety the whole way.

          1. Gary Post author

            Under performance is the price one has to pay to sleep at night.

            Realistically no one is going to be able to hold through the massive swings back and forth in a 3X fund.

            You could literally watch your portfolio go from 1 million to 300,000 back to 2 million down to 500,000 and so on until the final bubble takes it into the stratosphere.

            If one could just turn off their computer for the next 3-4 years you might be able to do it, but how many people are going to do that?

            I try to keep the anxiety and nervousness down as much as possible by sidestepping corrections when I think they are imminent. I’ll never time them perfectly and sometimes I have to get right back in after an exit if it looks like I was too early. Other times I get caught and have to ride out a correction. That’s when subs start to panic, not when we take a nice profit like we did today.

          2. Gary Post author

            Since the bottom in 2016 GDX is up roughly 108%.

            The metal portfolio during that period is up 157%. So we are at least outperforming a buy and hold strategy, even if one assumes that GDX was bought at the exact bottom.

  4. Goild

    Gold is up, JNUG is down.
    This is how the rats steal money.

    I got into the falling knife, to lose, recover, lose, and recover.
    Another good week +$6.3K.
    Have a nice weekend.

    2. Nada

      @Goild as a day trader, who do you utilize for charting? When I had more time, I used esignal for day trading. Very nice platform because it is not written in java like most broker provided charting packages.

      These days, I work a full time job so I only trade options and my lowest time frame chart is 4h.

  5. Power Corrupts

    I have been reading Gary’s analysis, sometimes as a subscriber, other times as an interested freeloader, for more than a decade. In my experience, he has a very good grasp of the major trend, big picture most of the time. I would place a high level of confidence in his current outlook. Sometimes his trades are huge winners – AGQ during the last silver parabolic move was real time and a monster. Sometimes he blows it but nobody bats 1000 in the markets. Sometimes he gets carried away with himself too, like a bit of bragging at the last top of the gold market about a wealthy man being able to handle a 50% loss – economically maybe, but psychological capital is just as important as financial capital. In spite of all that, he has a very good feel (and that’s a gift) for the markets compared to many. Any time he pounds the table about a trade it pays to listen! Always have a capital preservation stop on any trade, whether it’s Gary’s idea, yours, or someone else’s. If you get stopped out of something for a small loss, it’s just the price you paid to see if you were right – don’t let a small loss become a big one. If it was a shakeout and it turns around, you can always get back in. Let your winners run, and if it’s one of Gary’s table pounders, sometimes it will be huge.

    2. Christian

      I agree and that’s why I stick around 🙂 That said, even Gary needs to be told (or gently reminded of) once in a while. We all do…

    1. dboz

      Point being, I agree with Gary, very few can hold to even get to that high. JNUG at 50 would be bad enough. Having 50k in profit and letting 15k go on a drawdown without locking profit? Too hard to hold that sort of product. On top of that unless we trend up non stop (doubtful) and I am sure there would be bigger declines than 30% along the way, the decay over time does add up. Not in the short term, but over a long term it sure does if it goes to flat trading like the last 9 months.

      2. Nada

        If its not a misread due to opex.. then if the market is red on Monday morning, I would BTFD. What do you mean by rug pull, in what asset?

  11. Pedestrian

    Really bad news all round coming for metals. DBB base metals looks to have topped out. It has little chance of going much higher although I would make a concession for a small further gain as it forms a top. Platinum is about to go into decline shortly while copper and palladium are set up for very steep falls warning recession and global economic slowdown is already upon us. Much worse than anyone here imagines. It is going to come as a shock to the children in the room who think vegetable bin inflation is important. The dollar and euro will FINALLY reverse from a picture perfect set up. Next week will also see both gold and silver turn down but not before sucking in as many bulls as possible with a green start to the week that exceeds 1366. on gold (2016 closing high) and sets off a blazing but brief frenzy of automated buying as resistance is broken in a hallelujah moment. The entire metals sector is headed for a teeth-smashing bloody-face decline into the final quarter of the year. Really exciting times. The bulls will take one more sucker punch to the groin and boy, do those guys ever deserve a good solid TKO to shut them up for awhile longer.

    I can hardly wait.

    1. Gary Post author

      I tend to think we get a pullback in the metals next week as well and probably into the FOMC meeting. But it will be just a completely normal correction into a daily cycle low. Seriously after rallying for 2 months we need to have some kind of pullback to cool off sentiment.

      Once the correction is finished then we’ll get another leg up in gold. This leg should at least test $1400. After that then we probably get a larger degree correction into January or February. But it will still hold well above the July low.

      1. Pedestrian

        Anything is possible of course. I have a skeleton plan mapped out but agree it could vary from expectations. I’ll be looking for gold to top out at 1169.50 approximately (18 some dollars above today’s close) which could come Monday or Tuesday and then ride the cycle down in 12 trades to the end of December using two instruments.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well we’ll just have to see who ends up being right.

          I plan to buy back positions, possibly with leverage sometime around the FOMC meeting. I would like to see some short term oversold conditions and maybe some mildly bearish sentiment by then.

          That should be the fuel for at least one more rally to 1400 before the larger intermediate cycle tops.

          1. Pedestrian

            At least we both agree that a correction is coming. All that differs is timing. The important thing is the bulls keep buying with both hands. We need them all on starboard to get this thing to capsize.

          2. Christian

            Same. And for everyone who was busting my balls for getting into DUST too early.. I’ll be fluffing the feathers when I exit that trade with extra $$ in my account and you can all kiss my beautiful behind 🙂

          3. Pedestrian

            Being early is no crime Christian. Especially if you can take a little pain while you hold. It’s more important that you know from your indicators that you are ultimately on the correct side of the bet. The hedgers do it all the time and just let the cycle come back to them until they can sell with a gain. It’s retail who panics and sells into every low. Had Sassy stuck around I might have offered encouragement on her trade (which was a very premature buy btw) and she would have learned patience pays better than knee-jerk actions. Too bad though. Days into her bet she decided I was an idiot based on Big Dodo’s criticism of me, sold the trade and then blamed me for the loss. Then she turned around and contritely said that she learned a hard lesson which was not to listen to other traders online but what she will find out is the real lesson here is you need to do your own homework, trust your instincts after you pull the trigger and not be swayed by your emotions. That trade of hers would have made a killing in good time.

            Hard lesson indeed.

    2. roadrunner

      haha…you have been saying the above for 6 weeks Pedestrian and you have been wrong for 6 weeks. back in July you stated the metals were going to get crushed in August. yet, that didn’t happen. You got steamrolled. Smashed in the face and your teeth are in tiny pieces on the floor. Your balls are swollen like grapefruits having been kicked so many times…but even a broken clock is right twice a day right….save your hyperbole. You have been wrong, wrong, wrong. Calling for a drop now after about a $150. move to the upside is nothing to brag about.

      So instead of spewing your verbal diarrhea, why don’t you tell everyone how far gold is going to retreat? Do you have any clue? A target? and when will it hit said target? Right. you have no clue.

      1. Pedestrian

        Matter of fact I do. Target low is 1108 +/- on gold.

        PS: I don’t recall posting in July. I was on holidays until middle August.

        What’s YOUR target? Second or third time I asked you now but we still got nuthin but fluff.

  12. Pedestrian

    Gold has become an all-time hit with retail buyers as 9/10ths of a trillion dollars in contracts traded during the past month. Fresh faced new buyers have been flooding into the sector in droves according to a ZH article today as they seek to catch the next big wave in precious metals glory. Comex volumes hit an all-time record high as 6.5 million contracts were traded in August. And those are all the right words we bears want to hear as Commercial shorts lurched towards 250K.

    I salivate at the thought of what it portends.
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-09-08/gold-trading-volumes-hit-record-high-dollar-crashes

    2. Gary Post author

      Sentiment has to improve during a bull market. Instead of rallies topping out at 40 or 50% bulls, they top out at 70-80% bulls. The baby bull rally topped at 79% bulls. As of today intermediate degree sentiment in gold was still pretty neutral at 66% bulls. During the next leg up we should reach 75-80% bulls.

      That’s the spot to start looking for a larger degree correction.

      We are still in the advancing phase of the intermediate cycle. That means we are still in buy the dip mode.

      Hopefully we get a dip in the next week and a half. If we do that will be the next good buying opportunity.

          1. Pedestrian

            I’m not so sure about that. The entire gold move during 2017 is little more than a bear flag telling me we close the year below 1200 dollars. The decline that lies ahead is going to be unusually painful this time because it takes so many traders down as it goes.

  13. Pedestrian

    September 11th (Monday) is 9-11 — Dollar reversal begins that day
    September 20th FOMC press conference and minutes release. — Expect rate increase
    September 23rd first day of fall — Gold gets a big kick in the groin

    1. Gary Post author

      There is 0 chance of a rate hike this month.

      The Fed has never raised rates with the odds under 75%.

      They are going to leave rates right where they are at 1.00-1.25%

      The Fed follows the market, they don’t lead it.

      1. Pedestrian

        Put a CCI indicator on your 200 week moving average link Gary. Maybe a Bollinger %B as well for good measure. Anyway, the CCI is as high as its ever been on that chart and the last time that happened we had a 250 dollar gold decline. It’s already tipping down on the daily level chart. Same with RSI way into overbought territory. It *could* stay elevated awhile longer but these indicators among others are going to trigger selling, not buying, for the next while. It’s why mining stock went flat today. The programs are already offloading into the weekend. I can’t trade this stuff on just ideas since I prefer supporting data.

        About the rate increase? Well the Bank of Canada just hiked putting rates there above the US and I think we are getting a glimpse into the change of thinking at the Central Banks. It’s too early to call “No Hike” based on the reading so far since we still have two full weeks to go before the FOMC and the Presidents could change a lot of minds between then and now. I see another hike based on the BOC actions.

        1. Gary Post author

          An overbought oscillator doesn’t mean an intermediate top. There have been several times the oscillator was more overbought. As you can see it often occurs during the initial kick off of a bull market and can stay overbought for a long time.

          It’s a sign of intense buying pressure. That always occurs at the beginning of a new bull market as smart money begins to accumulate long term positions.

          1. Pedestrian

            Just being as objective as possible. What’s high is high and virtually always leads to declines. Some of those declines off the peaks were considerable. Most of those peaks were in fact associated with important tops.

            In particular, 2011, 2012 and 2016.

            On balance it does not say “buy more gold”!!!!

            And people who ignored the 2012 peak in the CCI got slammed to the pavement like rag dolls when gold went on to fall a mind-numbing 600 dollars in 8 short months. We know some of them. They still post here and are still holding miners that fell to near worthlessness.

            I am just saying Gary, be careful. I may have been a little too early calling this reversal (and that happens sometimes), but we would be foolish to just ignore the evidence as though this time will be different and *maybe* it’s not an intermediate top.

            What I am saying is my technicals warn this is THE top for the year based on what I use and the decline should be significant. I assure you I am not trying to be contrary or combative in my approach either. I honestly hope that readers on this site will take the objective facts into consideration.

            You can beat the market in a bull or a bear if you see what’s coming.

          2. Gary Post author

            I’ll tell you why it’s not the intermediate top. Maybe a short term top though.

            We have a Fed meeting in a week and a half. The market always gets propped up ahead of those. But the stock market still hasn’t broken the intermediate trend line. I have a hard time calling an ICL without at least meeting that requirement.

            So here’s my take on what is going to happen between now and the end of October. The market is going to rally next week and into the FOMC meeting. Probably breaking out to new highs and maybe testing 2500. That will give the banks an exit so they can get out of the way of a sharper decline coming next month. One that will break the intermediate trend line and really create some fear.

            Gold will drop next week and into the FOMC meeting to find its DCL. Then as the market starts to sell off into the October ICL gold will resume its upward march, probably breaking to at least $1400.

            Once the ICL in stocks is finished then gold will start a deeper and more sustained correction into an ICL that will bottom in January or February. It won’t drop below the July low.

            For now the two assets will probably mostly trade inversely. Next year they will trade in tandem as the dollar really starts to unravel and push everything higher.

    2. roadrunner

      see. there you go again with your nonsense. gold will rise if interest rates are increased. hear me know and believe me later. If the FED raises rates gold will increase. Of course anyone who has followed the gold market knows this, yet somehow you seem to be clueless about interest rate increases and gold.
      So let me help you out. follow this link so you can be better informed and you won’t look ignorant.
      https://mishtalk.com/2017/02/23/rate-hike-cycles-vs-us-dollar-rate-hikes-bad-for-gold/

      1. Pedestrian

        Well there YOU go Roadrunner quoting others because you can’t make the case yourself.

        Look bud, there is no fixed formula when cycles don’t align.

        1. Pedestrian

          Still waiting patiently RoadRunner.

          So what’s your big call on gold?
          (Since you know its better to say nothing than to get caught being wrong)

          Between you, JJ and Lena Powpow is amateur hour around here everyday lately.

        2. roadrunner

          Nice try. I provided reasoned information to back up my case…but it is noteworthy that the best you could come up with as a retort is that I provided proof for the case i was making.

          For sure no one has a crystal ball. but you have been calling for a decline in gold for 6 weeks. Thats the problem with having a bias…either bull or bear. the set up for a rise in gold was near perfect back on July 7. We have gone up for two months. so a pull back here or around this level would make sense. And the retrace could be $50, maybe a $100 or even more, but unless we break 1205, gold will go higher after a retrace. Just my opinion and I could be wrong. if i am wrong, I will make the appropriate changes to my positions.

  14. Goild

    Last week some clarity came and realized how different day trading is from swing trading. Quite different scenarios. Somehow quite different skills are needed.
    I said earlier that I got into today’s falling knife. But what does it mean?
    JDST opened low at $40.16. This was about 20% departure from the daily averages, quite a great deal.
    I actually placed an order for JDST but was not served. I thought it could be a bad day for JNUG .

    At the open I got 500 JNUG shares, to start losing as I added more shares. Typical stupidity.
    At some point I had lost about $3000. Not a pleasant scenario, especially being a Friday.
    Today I had like 70 round trip trades.
    I managed to recover and made $2300, to lose them, to recover and ended up making $4000.
    What amazes me, it is not the stupidity which I am used to, but the fact that JNUG went mostly down to -6%, and still I managed to make good money with all JNUG trades long. Luck also helps and is part of this business. Though I have been in so many falling knifes that I find myself coping with them.
    Well, what a day.
    Have a nice weekend!

    1. Kruzoe

      So very true, Goild. I sold my jnug in the pre-market yesterday morning. Made a quick $14k on my 8k Jnug. Decided to take the day off. I wish I did not as I would have bought Dust at the open. Not to worry, there will be another Dust trade soon.

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