140 thoughts on “Stock market wrap

  1. Christian

    More talks of the possibility of a ‘semi crash’ that we both know is unlikely going to happen. When was the last time the PPT allowed the Market to correct in proper fashion? And why would this time be any different..?

  2. Gary Post author

    By semi crash I’m only talking maybe a 5-7% correction. The intermediate cycle is right translated so the odds are slim it could move back below the March low.

      1. Steffmeister

        Are you considered cocky if you know what you are talking about? O’boy I just watched the video and there is a scenario in there that is plausible to me, however Gary stated many times that the easy money to be made was in the stockmarket …

        not so sure about that the easy money for almost 2 months now has been made in the miners&metals

        1. Gary Post author

          I’m taking a bit longer view than you. Between now and next summer the easy money will be made in stocks. The Nasdaq is going to at least 10,000.

          Once the stock bubble pops then we will have a bubble in gold. That’s when the easy money will be made in gold. I expect before this is all over gold will at least make it to $5000 and maybe 10,000 but a big chunk of those gains will occur during the last year. Once gold breaks out above 1900.

      1. Pedestrian

        Don’t let him rattle you Boss. The bugs always gloat when they catch a little something. Unfortunately for Steff what he’s about to catch is a bad case of gold-pneumonia.

      2. Steffmeister

        That was a rude comment I apologize, I do not know about corrections going forward, my main focus is a high later this year.

        I’ve stated so many times to get in before seasonality and end of summer doldrums. Geopolitical violence is at a very high level throughout of September into October, that is good for gold.

          1. dboz

            I just try to keep it real and honest. It’s not always rosy. May have blown up my challenge account today also.

        1. dboz

          I’ve been in and out of JNUG several times for some nice smaller gains. I’ve just missed this last couple weeks big move. I am not sure we see much of a pullback. But, ready to buy if we do. Personal account is mainly cash right now and one bad position I am getting nervous about.

          Looking forward to settlements only taking 2 days now, that helps.

    1. Gary Post author

      No recession any time soon. The stock bubble has to pop first and we then need a surge in commodity inflation.

      Every major country in the world is growing. In order to have a recession economies have to at least start contracting and they are not doing that.

  3. dboz

    As usual the start of any dip gets bought and reversed with force. For over a year and a half the market participants have been trained like Pavlov’s dogs (for Zkot) to buy the dip and get rewarded. Maybe we are getting close to that reaction getting burned? We have 2-4 weeks now of repeated reversals. It would be nice that just once the dip turns into another dip and another and another and get a correction of 10% at least. I keep trying to catch one but only minimal success. High risk, high reward. I think if we do get something like that the TQQQ trade is the way to go per Gary’s chart. Just can’t buy in now when it looks like we keep bouncing around. Give us a nice buy entry after a decent drop, C’mon already.

    1. Gary Post author

      I thought you should have just sat on your last winnings. You might be able to win the contest by not making another trade for the rest of the year. Why take a huge risk?

      1. dboz

        Yeah, I know, you scared me with the outstanding trade comments. I would have been alright with a day trade, but needed to hold to tomorrow and that hurt as the end of the day went viscous.

          1. Pedestrian

            Is that you at the top of the rankings Boss? Great work! And congratulations because I think you deserve it. Mind if I ask what trades worked out best?

  4. Pedestrian

    So lets see. We have platinum, palladium and copper all on the verge of falling or already underway. It stands to reason gold and silver won’t be too far behind. Looks like there is going to be a hiccup in the industrial precious metals though.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think you should quit trying to call a top every day. You are missing some really nice trending moves because of your perma bear bias in everything.

  5. Kenny

    Mr. Savage, I have observed that you seem to have a strong bond with the persona known as Pedestrian. He makes a statement to which you most frequently respond to in short order. The attention is clearly undeserved, given that he has proven to be flat out wrong with his questionable chart reading skills.
    Oddly, you have him a pass to say what ever he likes and you put no pressure on him to prove his ‘trades’ by participating in your contest.
    This puzzle is not too hard to figure out.

    1. Steffmeister

      #Kenny

      then this post makes sense …

      Pedestrian
      September 5, 2017 at 7:14 pm
      I forgive you Steff. No hard feelings here.
      *************
      do you suggest that Gary, Ped and zkot is the same person?

        1. Gary Post author

          LOL now you guys really are getting silly.

          The only tow identities that I’ve found to be the same were Sally and Ped. Before he changed his IP their IP’s were identical except the last number which should indicate they originated in the same house.

          1. Nada

            I assume you mean the last octet was different? If that is the case, then maybe from the same internet provider. If they were from the same house, they would share the exact same IP due to IP masquerading.

    2. Bigdaddy

      WTF! I knew something fishy was going on. Pedo doesn’t react like a real person would after being wrong so many times. No humility, no apology and he just continues on with his same old know it all horse shit. Gary appears to be a genius compared to the idiot Pedestrian. Maybe that’s the plan.

      1. Bigdaddy

        I hope we get a sell off in the metals so i can get back in. Some kind announcement that NK is willing to negotiate would do the trick.
        The stock market had a chance for new highs and dropped back fast so don’t discount the possibility that the market is going to sell down hard. I hope so. I’ll have more to say tomorrow. Stay tuned.

    3. Gary Post author

      I’ve tried many times to get Ped, Christian, Zot and bigdaddy to enter the challenge and back up their boasts. All to no avail.

      It’s much easier to appear brilliant as long as there is no real time record of your trades. And when you are clearly on the losing side of a trade you can use the old stand by that every internet genius uses. “Well I only had a very small position so no damage was done.”

      I guarantee if the trade had been a winner it would have been a max position and he would have been bragging about making a fortune. Again this is why I started the challenge to get rid of this kind of baloney. This is why all trades must also include position size.

      1. Christian

        You know what Gary.. I’ve got a lot of respect for you so I’m not gonna be rude to you this time, but I really don’t appreciate you saying that I’m always on here BOASTING β€” that’s a pile of horseshit!! I bring a lot more to this blog than you give me credit for, so change your tune.

        You’re just peaved because I chose not to partake in your silly contest :/ it’s pretty obvious now.

    1. Nada

      Non stop insults from BD in regards to other blog followers. Now calling Sheena a dog. Nice respect for the ladies pal. Ped must have a permanent smile knowing he cost you a pile of cash.

  6. Gary Post author

    Here’s the fact that many of you seem incapable of figuring out. Ped is a perma bear so when markets are in the declining phase of their intermediate cycle he looks like a genius. Most of his trades end up working during that part of the cycle.

    Others are perma bulls so they look like geniuses during the advancing phase of a cycle.

    So to make a blanket statement that some one is always wrong is ludicrous.

    Once gold starts the declining phase of it’s intermediate cycle then Ped is going to look like a genius again. And the perma bulls that are pounding their chest and fluffing up their peacock feathers right now are going to turn into the ugly ducklings for awhile.

    This is just how markets work. They go up and they go down. It’s why sentiment is often such an effective tool because humans have a tendency to project the past into the future so when price is going in the direction you want it to go traders concoct reasons for why it will continue indefinitely. It can’t keep trending indefinitely though as eventually you just run out of buyers or sellers. Then the trend reverses and the hero’s turn into losers, and the losers get their turn to beat their chests.

  7. ARends

    very interesting news of Bitcion where
    China bans companies from raising money through ICOs, asks local regulators to inspect 60 major platforms

    23 Hours Ago | 00:47
    Bitcoin fell by another $300 on Tuesday after the fallout of a Chinese ban on cryptocurrency crowdfunding methods saw the price of the digital coin slump earlier this week.

    So we see some

  8. Spanky

    Pretty clear swing high on the AXU daily chart. I would expect price to correct/consolidate for a week or two or maybe longer before new highs can be struck. Just a conventional guess though. Again, not trading, just holding.

    1. Nada

      Here is the thing. The cycle is stretched, sentiment is extreme (highest I have seen for some time) , we are due to begin a hunt for a daily cycle low and you want to long with a pullback of 3-4 points in gold?

      Its a bad idea. What you are experiencing is called FOMO = Fear of Missing Out. This is the exact location where smart money likes to hand retail the bag. Now, if Kim Jon Un launches a missile and gold goes up 10-20 points you are going to be criticizing me for talking you out of the buy and most likely some other taunts, so I am damned if i do damned if i don’t, but you wanted an opinion and it has been provided;

      https://i.imgur.com/pjBvlRM.png

      1. Christian

        OR.. You could SELL HALF of your position and maintain a CORE POSITION in an un-leveraged ETF.

        This is a bull market after all.. What can go wrong? πŸ™‚

    2. Spanky

      Depends on your time horizon. Personally, if I didn’t have any positions, I would be scaling in slowly on any dip in quality small and mid cap miners, maybe 5% at a time. You may have to be patient though. Remember, I noted that the vertical price component of the 2016 rally (approx. 7 months) could basically be broken down into about 10 trading days. The rest of the time was spent consolidating!

  9. Peter

    Since I’ve been fully entrenched in the cycle analyst world, it’s funny to see the various analysts take jabs at each other. Avi went after Gary recently about overdoing leverage. Gary went after Robert Alexander about calling both sides of a bet (in this case, SPX) so it never looks like he makes a bad call, and now Robert shoots back at Gary this morning defending his position. It’s quite entertaining.

  10. Spanky

    According to Peter Schiff, this year and recent months in particular have seen the largest outflow in his managed accounts since the lows of 2015. He takes that as a contrarian signal and so would I.

    The bottom line is, as much as the bears are pining for a large correction in the miners, the risk is still substantially to the upside, IMO. Think about the panic buying that will ensue when the bear market is confirmed dead. The overshoot should be dramatic IMO.

    1. dboz

      We will know more within a couple of weeks. Very possible to just keep surging. Silver will be the key IMO. Still a long way to go to be big break out. Just remember where silver was in APRIL. Not saying it is going to collapse, but no where even close to April yet.

      1. dboz

        On the daily and weekly silver is way overbought. It can stay overbought in a bull market for sure.

        The silver rally at the beginning of the year lasted 67 days, this is day 62 for this one. Just saying, nothing goes straight up forever.

  11. Bigdaddy

    Speaking of dogs, Mutt is getting restless so I will be gone for a while. We are going to take a new route today. I am sure he will appreciate a fresh batch of mail box posts .

  12. kinik007

    I just found out but North Korea is getting prepared to launch another missile for their national holiday this weekend. This information is probably getting baked into the cake as far as this Gold/Miners run goes and so if there is a launch there might be a gap up and a possibility of a daily cycle high on Monday.

    Wish I knew this a few days ago when I went short when it looked like we had a reversal day and a DCH then. Nevertheless we’ll see how the short plays out. I am expecting this not to be a complete tank on the PM’s and Miners as theory here states that we are in a right translated cycle and in a Intermediate advance.

    Will take profits at 38% Fib retrace and hold the rest until 50% on the GDX chart of the July low and whatever the high ends up being and see how it goes. When we get into timing band for DCL I will take all profits regardless and go long with the rest of you on a clear reversal to the upside on the 4hr GOLD chart even if it doesn’t get to 50%.

    If after we don’t get a clear reversal downwards but a consolidation pattern, I’ll take my loss and re-gear for the entry to the long side.

    Good luck folks. I hope you all make money.

      1. Lenapowich

        “the folks that you insulted yesterday….” What?? All I did was state a fact. As of yesterday, Ped, Chris and you were on the wrong side of a move (in gold/miners). If you found that insulting then you need to develop a thicker skin because it sure wasn’t meant as a deliberate insult.

        Furthermore, I am not concerned about cycle lows as I am holding and adding if the price drops. That’s how some of the best investors have made fortunes.

        1. Nada

          Wrong side of the trade? I was building a position for Nov 17th in 126 125 and 124 puts. Those contracts expire 72 days from now. Most trades I take with options go against me when I start scaling in. That’s the entire point. You *BUILD* .a position. I don’t walk up to the table and plop down 20k on one hand!

          ” it sure wasn’t meant as a deliberate insult.”
          Really? You specifically call out three people by their names and you say it was not deliberate? I think there is little doubt you were being snarky. As I stated yesterday, not one of the three people you mentioned claim to be anything, much less an expert. We were just warning about an impending cycle low.

          “Furthermore, I am not concerned about cycle lows as I am holding and adding if the price drops. That’s how some of the best investors have made fortunes.” Good luck with that. I am sure you will make fortunes too.

          1. Pedestrian

            No, you are not imagining. When Lena accused me of never getting a call right I invited here to link the posts so we could review them and instead she snapped back with this comment:

            Lenapowich
            September 5, 2017 at 12:58 pm

            “LOL! It would be easier to link to comments when you were right. Very short list”.
            —————————————–

            So many empty posts from this girl. We are talking 100% content-free material. Empty calories. Nothing burgers. Same as those that come from Kenny, JJHarmen, Don, Roadrunner and a few others.

            Waste of blog space.

      1. rborna

        That’s the big challenge with EW, it is subjective to how you count the waves. I see 3 subwaves of wave III, so may be another wave up V, but what if it decides to divide to subwaves and stretch even higher?
        It becomes obvious after the fact πŸ™‚

  13. Nada

    Well..

    I am bit confused. I see 5 waves in a rising wedge, but friend sees 4. Its how you count the candles. If he is correct, then we should have another wave up to 1347.5 (spot gold price). I am tempted to take profits on my 126 puts, but if I am correct I am going to be annoyed.. so I may open hedge here and prepare for another ride to 1347.5

    I will post the chart in a minute.

        1. rborna

          Nada,
          It is not clear to me either. What if what you counted as V is the v of III, and we are in IV now?
          For this reason, I sometimes get out (or in) once it gets close enough, in case.
          At this point, I am waiting like a lot of people for DCL to complete, but then what Mr. Market wants to inflect most pain and does opposite of what most are looking for?
          and the charade goes on….

          1. rborna

            sorry, I got the numbering scheme switched, I was explaining your option 1, which would be in wave iv (not IV).

          2. Nada

            For sure Mr. Market wants to conflict the most pain, lol. That is why I am thinking about opening a hedge here with GLD calls. I am in 126 125 and 124 puts Nov to ride the hunt for DCL, but as you said.. it will be most annoying with a ride back up.

  14. Bigdaddy

    I got a fill for 3000 HGU at 15.11 It’s now at 15.13 so i am up big bucks already. The miner sell off is over done and i don’t believe gold is done with the upside. Get on board folks and lets ride this train to profit.

  15. Gary Post author

    I’m going to be laughing my ass off when XLE reaches overbought on the weekly charts and we exit ERX with a nice profit. It’s already half way back to break even in only 5 days. We should still have many weeks before the intermediate top. It should easily recover and deliver a nice profit in that time.

    If I had listened to the amateurs and stopped out at the bottom or just whipsawed the portfolio to pieces like most other analysts we would have just guaranteed a loss.

      1. Bluebellkid

        Yes I did. The week of the 20th ERX closed near the lows of the week on pretty good volume. We have now had two up weeks on relatively low volume which is not really good. The odds are better if the volume kicks in as something is rising. Arent you the one who is always saying to hold on to a losing position as there is always a bounce. Well, at this point it could only be a bounce. I remember last Fall after Gary’s now infamous buy JNUG at 23 (92 after the split) and JNUG made a nice bounce he went to tooting his horn and I pointed out there was no volume to confirm the move and JNUG commenced to sell off to what was eventually around 3. Are you now saying you bought ERX at the bottom the week of the 20th??

          1. Pedestrian

            I also have doubts about the sustainability of this move given the pattern on UWT, USO and others. What price do they need to get out alive BlueBell? I asked but they don’t want to tell me. Was it 33?

            So much for transparency!

          2. Bluebellkid

            Ped, they wont tell you because they don’t know – I don’t know. I do know that it breached the upper band and was rejected and band is heading downward and coupled with the fact the volume the past two week has been mediocre I am skeptical of the move. The 50 day has proven to be a formidable resistance area since the last week of January of this year.

          3. Gary Post author

            Our entry price on ERX is at $29.35. So we’re about halfway back to break even after only five days. If this is the start of an intermediate rally it should last two to three months.

          4. Pedestrian

            You have arrived at almost a perfect 50% retrace of the Fibonacci move so there is considerable risk that this gain you saw is already finished. A .618 fib number gets you very close to 25 dollars which is where major resistance comes in. The long term chart is still inside its bear channel so no real breakout yet which means caution is still the word.

        1. Christian

          Bluebell — Which part of ‘swing trade’ do you not understand?

          ERX was over-extended and excessively oversold. You stretch the rubber band hard and long enough.. you’ll make money when it snaps back. It’s that simple.

          If I was looking to hold ENERGY as a long term investment then yes, I would consider volume and a number of other factors.

    1. Nada

      Gary, lol. You know when you start getting cocky like that.. Well lets just say I am glad I am not in oil right now or I would be expecting the trade to immediately reverse.

      No doubts oil has been a frustrating monster – almost as bad as the whipsaw in natty. That freaking thing has drove me crazy for months while I attempted to short. I think I came out with about 100 dollars over 3 weeks, before I threw in the towel. There is a reason they call it the widowmaker.

        1. Gary Post author

          Gary makes real time calls.

          Anyone who makes real time calls has every right to fluff their feathers and I’ll be more than happy to celebrate with them.

          I even noted the other day that there are several Old Turkeys in leveraged metal positions that are potentially outperforming our challenge leaders. But they haven’t actually completed a trade yet.

          Good for them. If they win the contest they deserve to brag all they want.

          1. Gary Post author

            Without percentages real time calls are almost worthless.

            As I’ve noted many times in the past one can win 90% of the time and still lose money. Or one can win 30% of the time and make tons of money.

            Any real professional trader knows that the percentage of winning trades means virtually nothing.

          2. Pedestrian

            Platinum looks like it has hit its top today at 1007.80 basis the futures charts. A reversal back down should get underway once the top consolidates. Palladium struck its own top just shy of 1000 dollars yesterday. And copper has *maybe* peaked on Sept 5th but wwe need a little more time to see what happens next.

            I also see that the HUI is almost at its peak and should be dropping soon enough. Not quite yet though. By my estimation gold still needs to exceed the 2016 highs before this cycle is finished. That is my revised projection given that price blew through my earlier resistance level.

            We don’t have enough bulls on board yet. Need to get more people on the long trade before this will back off. A new high should be the fuel to change the minds of anyone on the sidelines and plenty of fresh buying of mining stock will be triggered at that point.

            Like a cat and mouse game. We will just watch and wait.

    2. primetime

      I will also laugh my ass off as I am also still holding the energy trade. But I am looking at a much longer investment window to make some good money in this sector, not just getting back to even. This is close enough to the bottom.

    1. Pedestrian

      DUST will be AWESOME once the trade gets underway. Commercials are not quite there yet with short interest contracts on gold but its coming little by little. Not sure why nobody else seems to see this. I am certain metals are going to tumble hard through most of 2018 and it could be that all the money is flowing into stocks that year. Not sure of the whys exactly but the charts are giving fair warning. Most here seem to have tunnel vision and only see a bright future for metals and to them my scenario probably sounds ridiculous.

      But they will be wrong.

      How about palladium at 250 in a years time? Its actually going to crash.

      Don’t say you were not warned.

      1. Gary Post author

        Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

        Gold is making right translated intermediate cycles so when the next intermediate decline comes it will hold well above the July low. Then the next intermediate cycle after that will make another higher high possibly to 1550.

        Unless you find a way to jettison your perma bear bias you are going to miss a huge chunk of the new bull market in gold.

        1. Pedestrian

          Exactly my sentiments. Gary is 100% wrong on gold and doesn’t even know why. He just keeps repeating the same rhetoric without backing up his claim with any kind of evidence. I mean, to me, if you are just saying something like “gold is making higher-lows and higher-highs” I can’t buy that as evidence at all because it just means you are looking at the wrong level of chart and losing focus. All of 2016 was nothing more than a bear market rally. And 2017 is going to give us a classic double topping pattern. We are just about there now. I am looking for gold to lose about 250 dollars in the next few months. Something in the range of 18 to 20 percent that gets us close to 1100 dollars. And that incidentally will be tradeable and hopefully put an end to this constant nonsense about gold being in a bull market when its clearly a secular bear.

          1. Gary Post author

            What do you mean no evidence?

            I told you, gold is making right translated intermediate cycles. That happens during bull markets, not during bear market rallies. Gold has broken the bear market trend line. Gold is making higher lows and soon to be higher highs. Sentiment has to get much more bullish now before an intermediate top forms. Classic bull market behavior. During bear markets intermediate rallies top with sentiment at 40% or less. Now we are getting 70% bulls before intermediate tops.

            And to top it off the dollar has started another bear market.

            There, I’ve backed up my claim with lots of data and it’s much better data then simply saying over and over that gold is in a bear market. The truth is you’ve actually offered no data at all to back up your claim that gold is still in a bear market other than your perm bear bias.

  16. 1970confused

    Ped, wht the hell charts are you looking at to be saying such crap???? I usaually just skip your nonesense but now you are just being ridiculous in your commments! So will you go away if we never see 1100$ again!! Man you are by far the most annoying on this board and do not know why Gary keeps up with it…..

    1. Pedestrian

      How do you know I am wrong?

      You think I am just kidding maybe. The thing is I have no doubts about what I am saying and I have chart work and my own method to support it. Anyway, why should you even care? If you are so positive I am wrong (and it sure sounds like it) then you should be long and strong and ready to ride the gold rocket to the moon.

      So are you all-in? Or are you just writing critical empty posts to fill airtime?

      Here’s the deal. You tell me why I am wrong with your OWN analysis. No copying anybodies else material either. Show me the charts and explain where we are going with gold and give me your upper target price. You won’t do it of course. The reason is most of you damned fools do everything based on gut instinct, guesswork and gambling.

      But you don’t have a damned clue what’s really going on behind the numbers.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s too early for gold to rocket to the moon. Gold is just now entering the adolescent stage of its bull market as it moves above, and holds above the 200 week moving average. We have at least three to five years yet before gold enters the bubble stage of this bull market. There will be many rallies and many corrections along the way.

    1. Gary Post author

      I doubt this is going to mark an intermediate top. The reason being that gold is now in a bull market so the yearly cycle low needs to migrate into the early part of the year instead of occurring in December like it has for the last several years.

      So once we get a corrective move down into a daily cycle low there should be at least one more daily cycle higher and then the intermediate decline will bottom in January or February instead of December.

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes. Gold is way overdue for a correction down into a DCL. It’s why I keep stressing to get off leverage.

      When price is rallying strongly everyone forgets about the rubber band theory. They assume that the forces of regression no longer apply. But the further price moves in one direction above or below the mean the more violently it tends to rebound once regression occurs. So a big strong rally doesn’t usually mean a weak correction like so many amateurs tend to believe. On the contrary a really stretched cycle often leads to a very scary correction.

      My suggestion is to put the Fibonacci retracements on the gold chart. Assume 38% is a given, and 50% isn’t out of the question. Then multiply that by 3 for a leveraged fund and ask yourself if you can realistically hold through that kind of pullback. If the answer is no then get the hell off leverage.

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