290 thoughts on “ANATOMY OF A SUCCESSFUL TRADING STRATEGY

  1. ocram

    Regarding PM I think that the bust of the bitcoin bubble would help gold and miners a lot.
    With SM bubble and bitcoin bubble both in full throttle I doubt there will be money to put into gold/miners.
    (lithium stocks are also experience another bubble)
    Gary thinks that gold/miners are in a new bull market,but we need a strong UP move soon in order to confirm this theory,an UP move that MUST break 1400 with convinction.

  2. Gary Post author

    We are about to get a low risk buy point in the stock market. It’s very late in the daily cycle. Stocks are in the timing band for one of those buying opportunities where you can put your stop right below the cycle low and risk is very small.

    But most people trade emotionally instead of logically, so they are going to miss the buying opportunity in the stock market, and they’re going to keep trying to pick a bottom in the metals way too early. The gold cycle has at least one more month to run before reaching a final bottom. The stock market has at least two more months to run before it reaches a larger degree intermediate top. Like I said in one of my previous videos the semi conductor index is going to tag 1350 before stocks have an opportunity for a deeper correction trying to pick a top before that is going to be a poor strategy.

    1. Spanky

      I’m holding come hell or highwater at this point. But damn, 6 more weeks of this is going to be absolutely brutal. Clearly they are going to smash the miners below every major support on the weekly chart, including the 200 WMA before this is over. your $17 gdx target from ages ago looks like a legit target at this point, things looks so precarious technically. There is nothing but air under the HUI on the weekly chart at this point. It is anyone’s guess where they take them. The yen hasn’t really even broken down yet either. Not fun at all. Never expected this type of “consolidation” in the miners. Really, it is more like a mini bear market, especially if we get anywhere near the 2017 low.

      1. jyoung3759

        So why are you holding? You do not know how to admit you re wrong and your willing to lose money to prove that you are right. Extremely poor trading decisions. I implore you to reconsider.

  3. JJHarmen

    What buying opportunity? The market is going gap up at the open , sell off a bit and then the DOW will be taking a shot a new highs. Same old pattern after a one day break.

    1. Gary Post author

      Well Biotech was never in a bubble but like I’ve been saying for months and months, the risk with Biotech is that the politicians in Washington damage the sector trying to garner the gray vote.

      It’s why I’ve not been willing to trade Biotech any longer even though I think that is where the innovation and potential lies. The question is will Washington allow that potential to be expressed.

  4. JJHarmen

    The ECB announces a plan to scale back asset purchases but to extend QE and markets around the world rejoice as the machines go nuts over the headlines. Makes perfect sense.

    1. Nada

      I would suggest we wait until the close before popping the cork, but it does look good so far;

      https://gyazo.com/e1b20093c61e7ade50ee611024086454

      What we could be seeing here is the market pricing in a hawk. BTW, I personally never said that the ihs pattern was whack. What I did say, if I had a nickel for every chart pattern that failed, well I could be sitting on a beach right now. Take the declining wedge you posted yesterday as an example – it failed.

      1. Christian

        You’re in the clear my little enchilada, Lol! I think it was Dersertsun that was the loudest ๐Ÿ™‚ And I remember Goild pipping up as well and perhaps one more — buggers!

        I agree that I should wait till close to pop the champagne but regardless, the neckline has already been broken and momentum is very much on our side, ie; the buck

        And as far as the wedge.. a couple of things to keep in mind:

        Gold is still trading WITHIN that wedge so it hasn’t failed just yet. Gold could very well tag the bottom of the wedge and bounce back up one last time before the final plunge.

        Also, keep in mind that momentum is to the downside in the metals so the likelihood of it working out is/was always very small. If, however, a wedge was forming at the end of an intermediate cycle then I can almost guarantee you that it would not only break to the upside but change the prevalent trend.

    2. ziasDad

      the neckline is broken. sometimes they get broken, sometimes they don’t. Even you don’t have a crystal ball. that’s why you wait for confirmation. Now that it’s broken, it’s likely it will head for 98 and change over the next couple of months. Meanwhile gold will hit 1200 or lower while the dollar is heading higher.

  5. Goild

    This bounce from the miners was kind of forced. The extreme was so extreme that the manipulators had no choice. JNUG may go higher this week. However, as of today the daily candles are not particularly bullish.
    I sold 500 NUGT shares at even. To reduce risk.
    On the bounce I sold the 6000K JNUG shares and made lunch money.
    I noted about the deal at JNUG $15.6.

  6. Gary Post author

    The SPX is getting pretty close to forming a swing and the McClellan oscillator had reached oversold levels capable of producing a daily cycle low as of yesterday.

    I keep warning people that in the vertical phase of a bull market DCL’s can be extremely mild.

  7. Goild

    Don,

    You may have missed a post with a link to my screen, about one two weeks ago.
    I used 5 minutes candles. And the following charts:
    GLD, JNUG, NUGT
    FXY, SPY, TIP

      1. Christian

        Haha! I don’t blame you. I was ready to call it quits as well.. Endless babble, endless arguing against common sense, ugh!

        Much better now though. But they will be back :/

    1. Christian

      I’d like to yes — it’s a very conservative TARGET in my opinion.

      That being said, DUST is a little over-extended above the 10DMA which means a pull-back of some sort is in the cards. I might sell or add, not sure yet ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Nada

      Late Dec expiration and yeah I have a bunch in Nov 17th. I assume gold is now going to test 1265-66 region. Waiting for the dollar to complete final wave to about 94.54ish.

      To answer your question, yes still waiting for turn. I do not believe we have failed cycle. I am happy to know you are keeping track of my options, as this is the second time you have made mention of them.

  8. JJHarmen

    Don’t get paranoid on me Nada. I am not “keeping track” with as much detail as what you do but it’s no secret that you are very bullish and you have only mentioned a dozen or so times that you play options extensively so I made a logical conclusion you were long via options.
    I happen to respect your opinion on gold which is why I have not sold GDX and thinking it’s getting close to the time to buy a little more.

  9. ziasDad

    Dollar has broken the neckline on the IHS which gives it a target of 98 and change. I’d like to see it close above that neckline though. The caveat is that the currencies’ wild moves today are news driven. Draghi spoke, the Euro tanked, and the dollar took off. News driven moves often do a complete retrace.

    If the dollar does continue higher to that target, PM’s are going to have a tough time. Gold at 1200 seems likely now, maybe lower.

    Good luck all.

  10. allthatglitters

    Been waiting many weeks for my JDST trade to turn positive, which it has today. But short term gold uber-bearishness feels a little frothy and news-driven. We’ll see, short term, how long JDST gains hold.

  11. Jimsee

    Gold is behaving quite strongly actually in the face of mounting money complex headwinds – will it retest july lows? perhaps – but the action so far is actually quite interesting in divergence.

    1. ziasDad

      down 10 on the day, not so strong. I think the tell was Monday when the stock market tanked, gold languished. It should have gone up 20 or more on that day.

  12. ocram

    It seems that the majority of analysts did were right in what they were seeing: inverse H&S in the dollar – massacre for gold/miners – continuation of the bubble both for SM and bitcoin.
    To be a contrarian have not pay this time.
    And kudos to Gary,he was one of the first to recognize this pattern.

    1. Nada

      Christian was the one that mentioned the pattern in the dixie. And for the SM calls – Gary didn’t even get in the SM until about 5-6 months after Trump was elected, kept sitting on the sidelines waiting for the shit sandwich scenario. So its not difficult to say BTFD in a bull market and be wrong.

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  14. palobar

    US Dollar:
    I explained this in early September. The Dollar has made a major low. The underlying math was unbelievable and something that is found only once in a few years. The importance of the above event cannot be understood with the traditional technical and cyclical analysis tools. Chances that we may see a 9-month rally that would affect Gold and other commodities are high. In any case, if you are betting on a small bounce you are probably going to be disappointed.

    Gold: No bull market. The $1220s is a key area. I mentioned last month that the July low was the minimum decline. That retest will be the moment of truth. The possibility of Gold trading a the 3-digit level is still on the table.

      1. ziasDad

        I think 700 – 760 is where the bear will finally bottom. What I’m unsure of is when, or more specifically whether gold needs to return to high 1300’s or even 1450 to 1550 and THEN begin a decline that will ultimately bottom in the 700’s –OR– whether gold will just continue lower from here (without going to 1400 or above). I had been leaning towards the former, that is, gold going to 1400 or higher first, but if the dollar has a 9 month rise ahead of it, probably not.

        However, another way to see the dollar is that it takes it only a couple of months, till late December, to reach its IHS target at 98 and change, at which point it heads lower to a double bottom at 91 or a lower low below 90. During that dollar decline (say from January thru March or April), gold could rally and get back into the 1400’s or even 1500’s. I’m still favoring this scenario, but between now and late December, looks like PM’s will go nowhere but down and the dollar heads up, so get long the buck!

    1. palobar

      Ocram,

      I agree with you. Have noticed that as well. However, there is a very small group of people here who have been arguing since last year that we are not yet in a bull market. I belong to that group. I have no problem to change my mind if the market suggests so.

        1. Gary Post author

          In the meantime we are making money hand over fist playing the move down into the ICL.

          As usual many ignore me when I point out the tops… and they end up losing lots of money and selling at the bottom.

          We will be buying at the bottom.When we do most of you will ignore that signal too.

          1. Nada

            Gary, you closed your position in JDST a few days ago, so how are you making money hand over fist as gold drops?

        2. ziasDad

          the bear market in gold is likely to end with gold in the 700’s (less likely it ends in the 900’s and even less likely it ends with a double bottom at 1045). But maybe we get a rally to 1400 or even 1500 first.

  15. JJHarmen

    So far the SM is following the usual playbook. We have had our opening gap, sell down and recovery, so what’s next? Sideways into the close or a run to new highs for the DOW? I can’t see a 1% hike in the dollar being good for the market but logic rarely works so anything is possible.
    GDX just keeps getting cheaper so no hurry to buy.

  16. Goild

    On my swings accounts I am down about -$6500.
    On my day trading account I am up +$2000.

    I added 12K JNUG shares to the swing accounts.

    Wonder how many shares I should leave overnight?

  17. ocram

    In december 2015 Gary was probably alone to call the bottom in miners,I was tempted to sell my gold/silver stocks,but I wanted to follow his advice and then the so called “baby bull” in miners started.
    Now I’m seeing the price of the miners near the december 2015 prices (ridicolously low) ,if I must be sincere I think that in a real bull market prices should not drop at the same level of the preceeding bottom after two years,this is not a good sign at all,but Gary still think that we are in the same bull that started in early 2016.
    I really hope that he will be right again but I’m really exhaust….

    1. Spanky

      To be fair, you should look at the indexes, like GDX, which are still holding their gains for now at least.

      Also, there are many markets that base like this in the past and have massive highs and lows along the way. Look at what $sugar did between 1998 and 2011. Huge swings from the initial lows, but the overall longterm trend was up.

  18. Jimsee

    would rather not have mux trade @.65 again, but – that’s only 1.3 lower – so wtf really. If the miners lead down to a break of 1000 gold – I’ll love every minute of the PUTTING it to the max ๐Ÿ™‚

  19. palobar

    RULE:
    Even if you follow the best newsletter, if you don’t use a stop loss at the times you are wrong, you will be out of trading business. We all make mistakes.

  20. vaknight

    The Dollar index is strong today but short term overbought at 94.55 and due for a pullback. However, there is a daily inverse H&S with a neck line at 94, IF 94 is tested successfully, the target is 97, which will likely put downward pressure on gold – and maybe industrials.

  21. vaknight

    Biotechs (IBB) are extremely oversold short term at 312, but seem to be destined to test near 300. If it gets there, in the next couple of days, I think there will be a good bounce trade. QQQ has been lagging the past few days partially due to IBB weakness.

  22. palobar

    The traditional cycle analysis cannot capture the importance of monthly lows that are many years apart and tied together geometrically both in price and time. The key is the 2016 low, not the 2015 low. I am not arguing that Gold will get there necessarily, neither that it will break it. However, if we break that low, we are in trouble.

  23. Don

    The Canadian dollar is at seven week lows. Crude oil is at seven week highs, So much for making money off that correlation. Who was it that said that the Canadian dollar leads crude oil?

  24. Spanky

    if we are in for 6 more weeks of this, GDX is going to go well below its 200 WMA.

    The HUI is already 5 pts below its 200 WMA and frankly could really break down on the weekly chart since there is zero support. The lower monthly BB on the HUI is coming in at 157 and rising slightly. For GDX it’s 18.79.

    I think we tag those lower monthly BBs before this is over, and its possible we go lower after an initial reaction bounce.

  25. Spanky

    GDXJ’s lower monthly BB is coming inn at 26.78. The fact that price this month didn’t even manage to tag 35.52, which is the 20 month MA, lead me to think GDXJ will make a run for that lower BB.

    Price is already waterfalling and gold apparently has a long way to go down. This is going to be a brutal decline in the miners (it already is).

      1. Nada

        blah blah blah, I thought you were taking some time off? I get so sick and tired of hearing the permabull crap ooze out on every single post! LOL, we are the yin and yang of gold ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. ziasDad

          right, the company that rarely shows a profit, that loses money on most of what they sell you, that has put many many many other companies out of business… but hey, that’s capitalism for you, right? (Well actually no, it’s US corporate capitalism in the year 2017. When US was founded, one corporation could not own another corporation, and there was no corporate shield a.k.a. limited liability corp. The Founders had it right!)

  26. Spanky

    Massive waterfall potential in the yen, made especially clear on the monthly chart. It needs a massive reversal next month to salvage the situation. Now this is what a truly scary chart looks like. Itโ€™s getting ready for its next leg down, just like in 2012 potentially. The set up looks eerily similar. Note the lower monthly BB, which is beckoning.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p23285599317&a=552928570&listNum=1

  27. JJHarmen

    Looks like the SM will open with a gap up tomorrow with the possibility of new highs with Google, Amazon and Microsoft all up sharply in after hours trading.
    The fact that Amazon only made 52 cents a share this past quarter apparently doesn’t bother those who are willing to pay a thousand bucks for it’s shares. Some see it a the new ‘value’ investment. Okay.

    1. jacob2

      Are you A Brit? I’m not but have followed him for years as he is a credible source imo. Regarding bitcoin, think it’s the real deal. Bought OSTK as a proxy an sold it at 34. Unfortunately it’s at 44 now perhaps on the way to 100. Also own Many Indian and Chinese ADR’s as I think the economic center of the universe is shifting east. Thanks for the info.

  28. Spanky

    Whether the HUI bounces here for a day or a week or two from here (which by the way I don’t think we have put in even a temporary low yet based on today’s massive candle–there will be more follow through before any king of bounce that lasts more than a few days) we haven’t seen this type of decline since pre-2016. Not even the post Trump decline in gold generated a sustained drop like this. Take that as you will, but I’ll take it to mean that this decline it going to be absolutely brutal.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p54454398218&a=552933516&listNum=1

  29. Nada

    Last update on gold. Besides the 190m on GDX, GDXJ showed up with 115m BOW as well.

    This will be my last post until we either have a failed cycled – which I will then reluctantly hand Christian’s burrito over or until we see some consistent bullish movement.

    The reason being? I see how annoying it is to read the same viewpoint over and over. Spanky has shown me the light. His non stop blabbering permabear BS day in and day out on every single post, has turned me off to the blog for a while. Cheers peeps.

  30. palobar

    @ziasDad,

    In my view, if Gold takes out the Sep’17 high, regardless if it will have declined or not before that, I am afraid that you will wait in vain. I seriously doubt that it will look back after that.

  31. ras

    Bounce in SVXY is very weak after intraday low and reversal. No surprise here if SVXY makes a lower low and UVXY makes a higher high before SM decides to head higher.

  32. Gary Post author

    Today was the recognition day in the miners. Anyone with any common sense now understands that there is something wrong. They will use any rally to unload positions.

    Perma bulls will remain in denial until the bloodbath phase finally causes them to puke their positions at the bottom.

    A very few Old Turkey’s will survive the YCL and hang on to make good money next spring.

    1. Spanky

      Iโ€™m holding come hell or highwater at this point. But damn, 6 more weeks of this is going to be absolutely brutal. Clearly they are going to smash the miners below every major support on the weekly chart, including the 200 WMA before this is over. your $17 gdx target from ages ago looks like a legit target at this point, things looks so precarious technically. There is nothing but air under the HUI on the weekly chart at this point. It is anyoneโ€™s guess where they take them. The yen hasnโ€™t really even broken down yet either. Not fun at all. Never expected this type of โ€œconsolidationโ€ in the miners. Really, it is more like a mini bear market, especially if we get anywhere near the 2017 low

  33. Goild

    Gary,

    That is the thought that crosses my, what is wrong with the miners?
    But it is the same story every so often.
    We shall see how things develop.
    There is nothing cast on concrete in this business.

  34. Goild

    Well, it seems you are too scared.
    GC and Yen might be turning around.
    What is the economic force behind the drop?
    Is it a real one or a manipulation.
    I would say manipulation.
    It is not only the miners, but also TIP, TLT.
    I expect a bounce soon.
    USD may have tomorrow a red candle to undue today’s green candle.

    1. Gary Post author

      The force behind it is that major resistance zone at 120 in the euro. I’ve done several videos covering this. It was just too big of a resistant zone for the euro to go through on its first attempt. It needed to have an intermediate decline first. That means at least one failed daily cycle. That also means that the dollar has to produce a counter trend rally. Those usually last at least eight to maybe even 10 weeks.

      I’ve cautioned over and over that gold was not going to be due to bottom until late November or early December, yet many of you can’t seem to muster the patience to wait for the buying opportunity. As I said back in July (when most of you ignored me also), gold has to have at least a three wave decline before and intermediate cycle low is complete. Gold has completed the A wave down, the B wave counter trend bounce and is now in the process of a left translated cycle. We still have at least 4 to 5 weeks before the cycle will be due to bottom.

      I suggest everyone here pay a little bit closer attention to the videos. I’m giving you pearls on how markets work if you will just set aside your bias and study these educational videos.

  35. Gary Post author

    Short-term sentiment on gold still isn’t excessively bearish. We still have room to continue lower, possibly into the FOMC meeting next week where we can get another countertrend bounce before heading lower.

    Intermediate degree sentiment on gold is dead neutral at 50% bulls. We’ve got at least 4 to 5 weeks before that will move to the kind of excessively bearish sentiment levels that would trigger an intermediate bottom. Bottom line: We’re just not going to get an intermediate bottom with sentiment at 50% bulls.

    Seriously people, buy a subscription to sentimentrader.

    1. ras

      Bounce? very likely. When it happens, may be another potential trade in inverse etfs. Subscription to sentimentrader? Nah. It will come out on some website. Besides, sentiment is a useful background tool, not a timing tool. Only price can be a timing tool.

  36. Gary Post author

    Also note that the euro has now signaled a failed daily cycle in progress just like I promised would happen. It still has many weeks yet before bottoming.

  37. TraderPete

    If we get five waves down in gold instead of three, we could see gold get down to between 1150 and 1200 before the correction is fertig, I mean finished. Pardon my German. ๐Ÿ˜Ž

    1. vin

      1200 seems to be in cards. 1150?

      Whether it goes down as far as 1150 does not matter that much if one is buying golds (miners) because the damage would have been done by the time it reaches 1200. That is a round number and round numbers are usually targeted. They will probably bring it below 1200 and then leave it alone for a while.

      In other words if it goes down to 1200 I will be a buyer of jnug. 8?

      1. Gary Post author

        I have yet to see almost anyone actually be able to pull the trigger during an extreme bloodbath phase. The reason of course is when price gets down to eight dollars it’s going to look like it’s going to six dollars, and if it gets to six dollars it’s going to look like it’s going to four dollars.

        1. ras

          No need for heroics. During the blood bath phase, no need to catch the absolute bottom. One can always get in on the move up. Leading stocks and intraday chart bases can be of help here.

          When sentiment gets lopsided, run through the 60 charts or so of the core gold/silver stocks for potential positions.

    1. TraderPete

      No, that wouldn’t make any sense, because the sentiment readings won’t be bearish enough. Also, the ICL won’t occur for a few more weeks, as Gary has pointed out.

  38. jyoung3759

    It seems very strange to me that so many people love banging their heads against a wall full of nails and then saying what? That’s not my head that’s bleeding. (i.e., keep throwing money at the same ridiculous trade that is running against them hoping to be right eventually). Unbelievable. Keep trying Gary one or two may eventually catch on to there twisted ways and finally adapt. I enjoy the videos. Thank you.

  39. zkotpen

    GDX appears to be moving toward the pointy end of the triangle begun in December, 2016. Currently in the process of completing wave D down of triangle, before bouncing to wave E to complete the triangle, prior to a yearly cycle decline.

    Don’t say I didn’t warn you.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’ve already emailed pedestrian his password. He can come back anytime he desires. However he’s made one bad call after another so I suspect he will remain in hiding for a while longer. This is one of the benefits of being a troll, not that I’m saying pedestrian is a troll, but they have the luxury of just going into hiding when they make a poor call. 90% of newsletter writers since they don’t actually make real-time trades have the luxury of just pretending they never made the call.

        On the other hand when I make a bad trade I make it in real time and everyone can see it. I don’t have the luxury of going into hiding. This is why the trolls have such a field day any time I have a losing trade. But then of course they ignore all of the winning trades. This is exactly why I started the challenge. Everyone has to play on the same level playing field.

        1. vin

          I agree with you in general but Gary and I understand that most of us are here because we think that being here will help us make more money.

          Even then there is more to life than making money. As I have said before that Pedestrian like all humans did emotional sometimes but he seemed to be a nice person. And, even though he probably did make many wrong calls yet his way of thinking and analyzing was appreciated by many here.

          And, thanks for reinstating his/her account. Hopefully, (s)he she come back.

          1. Christian

            Vin — This blog is a heck of a lot better without the likes of Pedestrian and other irritants.

  40. Gary Post author

    I’m pretty sure the NASDAQ 100 completed the daily cycle low with a retest of the breakout at 6000. From now until Christmas tends to be the strongest period for tech stocks.

    1. ras

      Strongest period. Yes. Not so sure about timing though. VIX and UVXY/SVXY make me a bit nervous. Also, bpcompq, bpnya, bpspx, nasi, nysi. I have never seen SM make a good move up with nasi and nysi in weekly declining mode. It may be differen this time?

    1. Gary Post author

      The full moon isn’t until next Friday and the 200 day moving average is still a little bit lower. I doubt we have a temporary bottom in gold until one or the other is reached.

  41. Goild

    Vin,

    I am not sure when I will sell some JNUG shares.
    Talking in hindsight is quite easy.
    Those bears, I will tell you, would not have the guts to short the miners right now.
    The elastic band is so stretched that it must regress to the mean.
    Many key indicators are at extreme.
    I got 3K more JNIG shares at $14.70

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold is not stretched excessively far below the 10 day moving average, the TSI is only at -40 which is not excessive, and short-term sentiment on GLD has not reached excessive bearish levels.

          1. Christian

            Thinking about it ๐Ÿ™‚ And then hopefully your little sweetheart Pedestrian can join my blog, Lol!

          2. vin

            I wouldn’t bet my shirt on it. He/She may not have gotten every trade right but he/she is a real analyst, unlike some others here who brag here while they have no skill whatsoever except for bragging.

  42. Goild

    Vin,

    Yes you said JNUG at $16.
    I also have made comment about not been bullish short term about the miners.
    Yes, no significant bounce in sight.
    But all I need is a PICAYUNE (borrow from RAS) one.

      1. Gary Post author

        Folks, when something sounds too good to be true, it is.

        Do you really think someone is consistently making money every day fighting a very strong downtrend?

        I let Goild stay on the site because he is polite and never bothers anyone, but these lunch money trades every day are pure BS.

        The traders that have been the most vocal about their great trading successes have been the ones performing most poorly in the challenge, and the traders that never speak up at all are the ones that are trading very successfully and are leading the challenge.

          1. Gary Post author

            10,000 would be a very very modest gain considering the 15 year consolidation leading up to the breakout.

            You need to put the 20 day moving average on your sentiment chart. Not even below 40% yet and the actual daily sentiment hasn’t moved below 30% bulls, so yes sentiment is not extreme yet. It usually takes a break of a significant support zone, like the previous daily cycle low, to turn traders excessively bearish. Then when we start the bloodbath phase down into a final ICL that excessive sentiment will stay that way for 5 to 8 days in a row.

          2. vin

            Welcome back, Nada! Glad that your exit was short.

            Re. Nasdaq! Have you seen the market today? I am a convert and a true believer now. Amen!

          3. Nada

            BTW, in regards to Goild. I think he is doing exactly what he is saying. I put the guy through a stress test and he passed my credibility check.

          4. vin

            Nada, I also feel that Goild is genuine even though (s)he does brag once in a while. (S)he is a real day trader, one of the good ones I have seen.

      1. Nada

        Nope. I am pointing out a point of interest. I hear you guys talking about full moons and goochers, 200ma and the Fed, so I wanted to point out what was lacking.

        If you notice, that is where we bounced on the Oct 6th low. Remember, the close is what matters not that she spiked below on the 6th.

        1. vin

          I didn’t say any of that stuff. In fact I am a perma goldbug though I like to see things as they are instead of what I wish them to be.

          Just for your info. my investments in gold/golds are significantly more than the gamble money I have put in SM 3X. I own more than a dozen gold stocks. And, I plan to keep them for a while. Though 3X are a different beast. LOL!

          1. Nada

            Gotcha. All the other points are good. I posted a chart not too long ago on the impact on full moons and bottoms. The Nov FOMC is a non event. The 200ma is always an obvious choice, but if you notice the 200ema is a better choice.

            I think I even remember a time or two when Gary would make a fuss over using ema’s vs ma’s.

  43. Goild

    Gary,

    At this point in life credibility is important.
    Do you think I spend my time here for free?
    I actually made so far in the day trading account about $723 this morning. Here are the trades:

    Symbol Status Order Type Trade Description TIF Order Time
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.70 Limit at $14.70 Buy 3000 Limit at $14.70 4:00 PM 08:41:59 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG VERIFIED CANCELLED Limit at $14.85 Sell 2000 Limit at $14.85 4:00 PM 09:28:08 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.8831 Market Sell 3000 at Market Day 09:30:06 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7753 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:36:25 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.82 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:37:59 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.74 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:44:26 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.70 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:45:36 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.66 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:46:56 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7037 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:47:27 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7305 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:49:03 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.668 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:50:20 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7247 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:55:14 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7647 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:56:40 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7565 Market Buy 1000 at Market Day 09:58:02 AM 10/27/2017
    JNUG FILLED AT $14.7847 Market Sell 1000 at Market Day 09:58:20 AM 10/27/2017

    1. Gary Post author

      Goild,
      I have no doubt that you occasionally make money daytrading. But I don’t believe for a second you make a thousand dollars every single day the market is open trading against a very strong dominant downtrend.

      I was born at night, but I wasn’t born last night.

      How about we give these lunch money trades a break and you just keep them to yourself. If you want to actually earn some credibility then get into the challenge and hold a trade at least one day. We’ll see if you actually make any money.

      1. ziasDad

        Just because you can’t do it, and because most traders can’t do it, it must be all lies right? Just like EW, you couldn’t figure it out, so it’s worthless.

        Well, guess what? Some traders actually make money day trading (not me, but some do). I was on a private chat room for a while and two day traders there consistently made good money day trading. They posted their entries and exits in real time and they made money virtually EVERY day.

        Ditto for EW. It’s difficult to make money using EW. It’s not my thing. But some traders are very successful using EW as their primary tool.

        It’s a big market, Gary. Lots of ways to profit from it. Your way works, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t other ways to successfully trade the markets.

        1. vin

          So true. There is no doubt that Gary’s predictions have been very good as a whole. But, there are other skills out there. Goild seems to have keen sense of timing. Exceptional.

  44. Goild

    Vin,

    I got rid of 5K JNUG shares at $15.26.
    I am back to about even after these two discussing weeks.
    Holding are now:
    2K GDX shares
    2K JNUG shares
    1K NUGT shares.

  45. Goild

    Well Gary,

    I am surprised at your answer and attitude. I guess you are not at your best right now.
    Pretty much my trading is documented here both, losses and wins.
    If you cannot give credit to someone, how can you expect to receive credit for your work?

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll say it again, if you want to earn credibility enter the challenge and let’s see if you can actually make money with real-time calls.

      My calls are made in real time and documented. The metal portfolio if marked to market would be up over 200%, and the stock portfolio would be up 139% over the last two years, actually a little less than two years.

    1. Gary Post author

      If we get to 20,000 within the next eight months then I would say yes we have reached the point of insanity, but right now none of the indexes are stretched excessively far above the 200 day moving average. At bubble tops they can be 40 to 60% above the 200 day moving average.

          1. vin

            Gary, no matter what parameters (historically speaking) one looks at it is insanity except for the cash (not cash flow) companies are holding. Interestingly, they will manipulate the share price with buy back but wouldn’t give a decent dividend.

    1. vin

      I don’t give a damm if you like me or not, though I do love you in the sense that I wish you happiness. But, you are not a person I would like to have coffee with. I find you to be belligerent and a person who hardly has any analytical skills whatsoever. Even more annoying is your yes-man mentality while insulting others. Pedestrian is a faar superior analyst. But, more than, (s)he is genuine and a decent person. You are not.

          1. Christian

            Oh baloney — I often make calls before Gary does (on the blog that is) and I follow 3 other Analysts that help me stay on track.

            And btw.. the reason my analysis is very similar to Gary’s analysis is because him and I (and others I might add) follow a very similar discipline — Cycles, Sentiment and Technical Chart Analysis.

  46. Gary Post author

    Also as I predicted when others were saying oil was headed back down, it is now in my range between $53 and $55 which is where I am expecting the current daily cycle to top and then give us another brief correction before finally moving up to the $60 range and a larger degree intermediate top. I’m not sure why the energy stocks are underperforming again, but we exited our leverage position many weeks ago and I’m waiting for the next daily cycle low before I convert back.

      1. vin

        I was going to invest in energy to-day but I won’t because of two reasons. One, I am scared to contradict Gary. Two, you have are buying to-day and I don’t want to compete with a genius, so I will let you buy. I will wait.

    1. Don

      Pedestrian said oil was going to $40 when Gary was saying it was going higher. Anyone who thinks Pedestrian was a “good analyst” is too stupid to be playing the markets.

      1. vin

        I am certainly not very smart otherwise I won’t be here trying to find some good advise while having to bear the ones like you. So, please mind your business. You don’t even understand the basic principle of market analysis. No analysis is always right including Gary. It is not a science no matter how many charts one draws. Those who pretend to be always right are fake. In fact, the right word is much worse than fake.

        You have correctly pointed out that I am not very smart, I suggest you go and see your face in the mirror. It will certainly help.

        1. Don

          Vin, if you have been following this blog for any length of time, you would know Christian’s calls are to be respected because he is right far more than wrong. Stop attacking him with false statements. On the other hand, if you think Pedestrian is a good analyst, then you must be willfully blind or worse, just not very smart.
          Your best bet is to follow Gary to the letter.

          1. Christian

            Thx for backing me up this morning Don — appreciate it ๐Ÿ™‚

            Every now and then someone’s gotta come in and crash the party..!

            Welcome Vin!

          2. vin

            Your friend needed your backing. Now both of you are geniasses. Read my post on me not being as smart as you.

            It does not make you very smart calling someone you think is not smart, NOT smart. But I guess, how else would you feel good about your smartness?

  47. Don

    If you had listened to Pedestrian and have been watching the Canadian dollar plunge over the past two months, you would be shorting crude and loosing your shirt. I tried to warn people about that idiot over and over and over again. He will be back when there is a new crop of newbies he can dazzle with his BS.

    1. vin

      I have read many of your posts. If you really want to be respected come up with something of substance like Gary,Pedestrian, jj or Nada ( and there are others here). Simple bragging is not going to earn you much respect if any.

    1. Bluebellkid

      ERX did go on a nice run from $21.37 to $30.55 and it did it on tepid volume so I was skeptical the move would have legs. So far that is it (maybe the below average volume did mean something??) ERX has been hanging out just above the 200 day which by the way is sloping downward. The 50 day is heading up and we will get the golden cross soon. The selloff this week saw it bottom at the 50 day (27.16) which is a good sign and as I type this ERX has moved back to just below the 200 day. If it can close above that and remain in the upper half of the weekly trading range that would be bullish. It has closed near the lows of the previous three weeks on way below average volume. This week the volume is shaping up to come in at least at average levels if not above.

    1. vin

      jj, at this stage I am not selling anything but yes I am nervous about the market. In particular, small caps aren’t following. In an ideal situation they must have been leading. I am willing to gamble at this stage.

      Re. gold stocks. Most of them are very cheap based on historical data. Look what happened to goldcrop yesterday! And, small cap golds are selling dirt cheap. I don’t fully understand what it means. It could mean that gold is still in bear market, or it could mean that those with dough will buy them for nothing.

    2. Bluebellkid

      FB is having a nice day as well – would hate to be short! I did short some AA a few minutes ago. I had owned the stock for a couple of months and had a $10+/share profit and then it started pulling back and today just dived on no apparent news. It made a new high this week only to reverse and now is in the lower half of the weekly trading range which is better known as a reversal and for me a sell signal. Volume will come in above average on the reversal move. At this point no one knows whether it is just a pullback to the 50 day or maybe a cup type consolidation but I not going to hold it waiting to find out.

      1. vin

        This is too good to be true. But, I don’t think I have the courage to short. That is why I am so impressed wit Gary. He predicted it and he did it with quite a confidence. I find that amazing. I am not even a seller yet. I will watch and see. I now have substantial profits in a couple of positions.

  48. primetime

    Christian,

    I see you are still infatuated with me as I just noticed your post. I have been too busy working and making money to invest any capital into your BOMBASTIC RHETORIC. Your true colors are shining brighter than ever today, and I am sure everyone has taken notice.

    I just finished having coffee with PED, and yes he is fine. I do believe the constant ridicule of Goild is nonsense. Keep up the fight VIN, but never argue with an idiot, b/c you will look like one too, even though you are not.

    “Debby Downer” Don seems to be more bitter than usual, but he is back.

    You Canadians sure are petulant.

  49. victor

    Guys, I’m saying it again: Goild trading is real. It’s not so difficult to make 100- 500$ in a few minutes if trade involves 50-60,000$. I’m doing it myself but with no more then 15,000$ and of course my “lunch money” much smaller. Yesterday 80$, today so far 470$.
    It just constant posting of Goild “lunch money” is annoying. Stop it Goild, you find a good method to make money – Best of Luck to you…

  50. jacob2

    The triumph of indexing:

    The case for owning an index fund is certainly on parade: AMZN, GOOGL, FB, MMM,NFLX all members of most general SM funds; roaring today. Too expensive to own individually but by owning the basket you get to participate. If you own an index fund, kept it simple, you’re a winner, congratulations.

    However, if you’ve forgone conventional investing in search of the next big trade and the ever elusive10 bagger, you loose. From hard experience, it’s just around the corner over the next hill. Wish I could say I was mostly in the first category but Im not.

  51. JJHarmen

    Just read that today, the market added 62 billion to the worth of Amazon. We have become to these kinds of market absurdities and people just accept it as the new norm.

      1. vin

        Nada, There is no doubt in my mind that it will happen again. Billion dollar question is when? From what height?

        I am not comfortable with the present height. But, can it go higher and much higher? Gary says yes. And, he is right so far.

        1. Nada

          No disrespect to Gary intended, but giving the advice to BTFD in a bull market makes everyone look like a genius. With that said, you are correct Vin – who knows when. What is obviously working is the BTD scenario. It will not last forever and the pendulum will one day swing the other way. This insane bull is going in turn to create an insane bear, one day.

          Just to be clear, I think Gary is doing a good job in the current environment. However, I would caution against these extreme calls of doubling the current value of nasdaq / dow / s&p 500. These type of claims are meant to generate traffic.

          The last one was how the bond market was going to implode and crash the markets. What Gary didn’t recognize, was the money leaving the bond market was flooding into equities after the election.

          1. vin

            First, “…This insane bull is going in turn to create an insane bear, one day….” Very true.

            Second, I did not say that Gary has never been wrong. But, that is no reason for me not to follow his advise when he is right. Today was a heck of day for those who follow him (tqqq, soxl etc.)

            I agree with you that one should be very cautious under present circumstances. Your judgement is respected as anyone else’s on this forum. That is why I ask you questions. But, the responsibility to act is only mine. And, the profit and losses are only mine as well. This is terrible thing about the net. One cannot even buy a coffee in appreciation.

          2. Gary Post author

            If the bond market were to suddenly implode and crash then yes the stock market is going to be in trouble. However if bonds just start a bear market, which I think they have, and go down over the course of the next 10 or 20 years I don’t see that as being detrimental to stocks.

  52. Americano

    Goild takes 1 weeks of lunch money profit – just one week – & puts it in Bitcoin then updates us on value change April 1st ( winking at you Bitcoin Doubting Thomasโ€™ lol) ……
    ***Minds Blown ***

  53. palobar

    Excellent call from Gary on the Nasdaq who captured the direction and and the vertical nature of this move on spot. I honestly hope that many people realise that the EW is a very dangerous approach sometimes. Unfortunatelly, this is one of those times.

  54. Troy

    Today was the most money I ever made in a day without have any miners or PM’s in my portfolio.
    (JNUG, NUGT, USLV, etc…)

    I have mostly TQQQ, a chunk of SVXY and then some UWT, GUSH & ERX and a little GBTC & ENVV (for fun)

    I’m so glad I listened to Gary and my subscription to his service is invaluable. Cheers Gary!

    Have a nice weekend all!

  55. Spanky

    CoT commercial shorts actually went up in silver, down slightly in gold. To me this is pretty bearish and is very similar to what we saw last fall, during which time silver got absolutely pummeled.

  56. Goild

    Victor.

    Thank you for your comments.
    I should say that you are probably a more competent trader that I am.
    Making money with a smaller account it very tough.
    A bigger account allows much more room for mistakes, which I do a lot.
    I do not know what exactly is the skill I have, but certainly is not being patient which is THE TRADING #1 SKILL. I do not use hard stops, and plunge into falling knifes rather than shorting them.
    Once you increase your account I believe you would make much more money.

  57. Goild

    One of my first posts a year ago said something like participating would help to calibrate.
    It comes to a surprise that there is here little understanding about how well a day trader can do.
    A talented day trader can usually make in a week $10 or much more. And yes there are very, very few of them.
    But it is true. Human mind can accomplish amazing feats.

    I still wonder about the talented swing traders… where are they?
    Is Christian one of them?
    I wonder where are they?

    It appears they prefer to live like Livermore, a very private life.

  58. Carl

    My “teacher” (claytrader) is doing a lot of money with daytrading. I have learned that technical analysis can apply to different time frame. It is possible to make money when you trade against the trend, but you need to take your profit really fast when the price is very overextended (RSI and bollinger band). Gary is looking at very long timeframe. I feel more comfortable to swing trade.

    Look at free claytrader live video and you will understand how it is possible to make money in minutes timeframe by playing against gap up/down stock. However you need a lot of experience, control of your emotions and a sharp knowledge of technical analysis.

    I do not want to adverdise another trader. I just want to point out that Goild trade can be good even if he is playing against the trend. I have seen millionaire trader playing on a 2min frame. However, these are exceptions.

    I have started to trade in january 2016 and i had really short view. I have been smashed until mid february 2016 then i had some profit but it is just a fraction of what i could have gain by knowing more of the market. I had a narrow sight and never considered the baby bull/consolidation/vertical phase, monthly and yearly chart.

    I want to thanks Gary for his blog. His experience with higher timeframe analysis really helped me out to gain more knowledge and expend my abilities to understand the market.

  59. Goild

    Carl,

    Thanks for commenting.
    Keep learning and you will become very good at this business.
    Protect your account, play little money, so you can play bigger money with a good cushion.
    The more money you put the les objective one becomes.

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