BUYING BREAKOUTS

Buying breakouts during the middle phase of a bull market will, most of the time, cause the trader to experience a draw down. This is because this market phase tends to stair step higher with numerous set backs. The preferred strategy is to try and catch the intermediate cycle low and ride that until the intermediate cycle tops.

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313 thoughts on “BUYING BREAKOUTS

        1. dboz

          I did not say the magnitude, but looks to me like it could be fairly substantial. Not predicting a crash or antyhing, just saying it is going to move down here.

          1. dboz

            SO a bounce around 1480 or on down the trough to 1416 and retest UTL support. If that fails, potential LOB.

    1. dboz

      I am planning on reloading the silver train with USLV around the 15.80 level or so. JNUG buy then also. Then should see a big move up from there in both. Then time to bail out for this run.

      I saw this tank coming yesterday. Posted it.

          1. Nada

            Its obvious that fomc minutes have the potential to cause wild swings in PMs. I am not questioning that.

            I was asking where your post was from yesterday, calling for said tank. You spoke as silver had already tanked, thats why I was wondering if you were talking about USLV or something else. Now I see you are apparently talking about by end of day.

          2. dboz

            Just saying it looks to me like a down draft is coming here. I sold my USLV already. NO position. Looking to rebuy. Still bullish, just waiting for a reload opp.

  1. jacob2

    End game.

    Very long, no crystal ball but the sm’s got to be good till the end of the year. No self respecting fund manager is going to want to be on record as holding lots of cash after this run. They’ll get fired.

    Not as optimistic about Gary’s doubling projection. Think we may get “tax reform” (ha!) sometime in the 1st quarter. … Elation. Blue sky projections abound, retail goes all in and the bull is done. Sell the news.

    Take it as it comes.

  2. Goild

    No, no, no, do not be stupid.
    Why limit the profit?
    Canceled limit orders.

    Go on vacation, do not worry and when you come back you will have a lot of money πŸ™‚

    1. Nada

      Goild.. OK, I will bite, mind you.. I don’t believe you, but may I ask why you are holding +300,000 dollars worth of JNUG on MARGIN in front of FOMC minutes? Do you actually have a reason?

      You know as well as I do, those 5m candles are not going to tell you jack $hit, so what my friend is your thinking? Oh I get you love playing the slots, but maybe 500 shares of JNUG? Its a coin toss on where PMs will go after the minutes, so why would anyone risk over 2x their account value?

      Earlier you were going old turkey with 2500 shares of JNUG and 3hrs later you have a limit order set to sell them. My god man, when does it stop?

          1. vin

            I have two brokers and jnug is not marginable with either of them. Yes some 3x are but jnug is not. In fact I inquired with a couple of friends who have different brokers and they all came with a negative answer.

        1. Nada

          Ha. I told Goild I was going to eventually catch him in his BS, but it seems you have beat me to it Vin! I didn’t think to verify JNUG – I just checked the margin requirements.

          He had posted a screenshot last week, so that is why I did the check. The math showed he required +220k in his account to trade 21,000 shares of JNUG and he had about half of that if I were believe the previous information.

          I am sure he will chime in and say its across multiple accounts.

          1. vin

            Nada, That does not mean that fidelity does not give him some margin. If they do then that will be a special case and not covered by the general margin requirements. I would love to know the truth.

            If in fact if fidelity does provide the margin, I would be inclined to open an account with them only because of this privilege. But, from what I have discovered so far I doubt the claim that jnug is 75% marginable.

          2. vin

            Nada, my interest is in knowing about the margin requirements at fidelity for jnug and not so much as to what goild does. Whatever (s)he does is his/her business. (S)he does not bother me at all. In fact I find him/her quire entertaining. And, (s)he is neither arrogant nor abusive.

    2. vin

      Hello Goild.

      You make so much sense when you discuss the matter with yourself. Keep it up my friend.

      Last time I read your post, you were planning to exchange your wife with someone. How did that go?

      Are you still into expensive wine and expensive cars for your woma(e)n?

      One can only wish to be someone like you.

      Happy trade in jnug and take your advice seriously. Good luck.

      1. Jimsee

        herman – yah – but the timing tomorrow is big and *should* be positive – always have hedges in place. a third place scenario is a retest low (today on price @1287) sends us over 1320 and unleashes the golden hulk till the 20th. I was rooting for morning weakness today to accelerate on minutes and make a retest @1270 – but alas…

  3. Strike2

    I hear the faint creaking of deflation weighing down all assets. It is just starting again after some months of Fed cheerleading against it by declaring rate hikes are needed. Now there are doubts expressed by more and more fed governors. Soon tightening will switch to neutrality followed by a further directional switch back to QE. More money pumped again and again forever.
    This trend change will help Gary’s QQQ rocket and eventually miners too. When there is no fear of higher rates we get higher prices on all assets as long as we fight deflation with more QE.

      1. Strike2

        Jimsee,
        I think that is a sufficient but not necessary condition for the fed to change direction. Another possibility is Trump appointing a new chairman who loves loose money. Before you think that is not feasible please note that he has already appointed an EPA director who hates (and has sued) the EPA. Why not take a similar path with the upcoming Fed appointment?
        The perfect storm is nigh.

    1. Spanky

      It doesn’t matter what the Fed does as long as the BoJ and to a lesser extent the ECB stay looser. Yen carry is driving the stock market higher, and frankly at least to me, the yen is now in a long term bear market, which should mean incredible new heights for the stock market. Commodities are dead money. They will be at best basing for years.

        1. Spanky

          The Fed knows damn well that when/if liquidity flows into commodities, the jig is up for them, and there will be pitchforks and lamp posts waiting for them. As long as they have a compliant BoJ (and there is nothing to suggest the BoJ is anything but the Fed’s bitch), they can modulate inflation perfectly. It may take more and more stimulus from the BoJ, but I am sure their sheeplike population will have no problem with that.

    1. vin

      I thought (s)he changed his/her mind:

      Goild
      October 11, 2017 at 10:18 am
      Have 16300 JNUG shares.
      Set limit orders to sell at $19.5 10400 shares.
      That would be about even.
      Just in case there is a spike at 2:00 PM.

      Reply ↓

      Goild
      October 11, 2017 at 10:26 am
      No, no, no, do not be stupid.
      Why limit the profit?
      Canceled limit orders.

      Go on vacation, do not worry and when you come back you will have a lot of money πŸ™‚

      Reply ↓

    2. Nada

      Nice call? Nonsense. I have been bullish gold/miners, and expected up after minutes but to risk that kind of money (questionable) in front of a fed event is about the stupidest thing I have seen. It was a coin toss and no candlestick pattern foretold anything.

      1. roadrunner

        Nada. Not sure why this upsets you. in fact Goild did exactly what you demand from posters on their trades. he posted his price etc before the expected event. The poor guy can’t win with you. if he came on at 2:30 and posted his trade you would have criticized him.
        You have made your positions known, long calls I believe. But you don’t trade like Goild….(who does except machines..LOL.) So you’re making money..excellent.
        Don’t forget. And this is important. Most posters are anonymous and can be anyone. Anything posted here most likely, (99.9999%), will NOT have any impact on your life, in any way.

        1. vin

          So true. It s so much fun to read some of the posts here. Though I find some are quite arrogant and even abusive.

          Goild is certainly not one of them and neither is Nada. I think Nada is a very upright person and gets upset when (s)he feels that the person is not honest.

          Fair. I respect that. But, then I also enjoy Goild. It does not matter to me if the postings are honest or not as long as they are not abusive and insulting.

          Let us make some money and have some fun as well. Making money and not having fun is like like going to an excellent movie and falling asleep.

        2. Nada

          @roadrunner

          There is a little history with Goild, but yes I asked not to hindsight trade – actually this is why the contest was created.

          You might have missed some communication, but the timeline and information provided did not jive. Sorry, I am probably being a bit of a nazi over this due to a background in a previous chat service. People were caught over and over falsifying trades. We traded options and folks failed to realize that time and sales data is in real time and how open interest works. The latest thing was Goild was his margin being exceeded by over 200k for the JNUG trade he listed.

          We saw posts every day about how he made lunch money and thousands each and every week. Then when he started posting in real-time, everything changed. He was suddenly down 6k and then 10k. The last trade of being in a 3x leveraged fund with over a quarter of million dollars in front of FOMC minutes is another example of lunacy. I think I have highlighted my point and I will drop the entire Goild issue just so the blog is not inundated with comments.

  4. Spanky

    If the cost of living spikes for the working stiff, the Fed knows there will be a lynch mob coming for them. Therefore they will keep a lid on commodities via the BoJ doing whatever is necessary to keep the carry trade going.

    1. Strike2

      I think of it differently. The biggest Fed fear is not being able to borrow money for 10-30 years at 2 – 3%. They will use any excuse to keep rates down without losing face.

      1. Spanky

        As long as commodities are in the shitter, rates are going anywhere. And yes, commodities will rally from time to time, but you will lose purchasing power staying long commodities since all liquidity will be flowing into the SM.

  5. dboz

    Big NG shake out today. UGAZ is a steal right here. See a monster move coming soon, like within the next 2 days.

    Is XLE/ERX going to get past this 200ma road block? Following right along.

  6. Strike2

    I think my PM outlook most closely resembles that of Nada here. What I don’t recall Nada is what your scenario is when POG approaches the 1362/1377 double top. I see a healthy pause as opposed to a retest of 1204.

    1. Nada

      If everything goes as planned.. I am looking for 1348 on xauusd as my target, then I am going to close my my nov positions and leave dec contracts running for a potential test of 1400 gold.

      The IC view is skewed. We didn’t have a clear break of the downtrend line until our recent DCL of 61.8 fib retracement. I think the first cycle got modified due to the NK issue on 8th of August, but that in fact was our first DCL. I posted the below chart the other day comparing the IC duration with the last. We still have time here, but gold needs to get in a hurry;

      https://gyazo.com/f7d0d53164a3f9c79e3d7919b2e5a6c9

      1. Strike2

        We both commented about the 61.8% fib bounce on that day. Fibs are another way of describing something as left translated or right translated. If in a correction the 100 mark (technically not really a fib, but neither is 50%) is not exceeded then we have a right translated cycle. The 61.8% fib is my fav turnaround point, representing a healthy correction. So my view was we keep going up for now.

        1. Nada

          “If in a correction the 100 mark (technically not really a fib, but neither is 50%) is not exceeded then we have a right translated cycle.”

          Interesting. I have not heard it put like that before.

  7. Jimsee

    can’t we just all live by giving the rest of the world the privilege of buying our debt dollars? Seriously – this is the ending sequence of what we chose in 2008-10. They borrow more to finance production, we loan them the money and take product – they buy our bonds – we loan them more money,etc…perpetual motion baaby.

  8. vin

    Gary, You are turning me into a believer.

    So, far I had put only a small amount of money in nasdaq based on your postings, small enough that losing it all would have made no difference to me at all. But, to-day I am considering of putting in a bit more in.

    Hopefully you will turn out to be correct. Thanks for helping us all the inexperienced ones here, like me.

      1. vin

        To-day the market activity somewhere between 3 and 3:30 was remarkable. I wish I could find out what happened. But, trading was hectic. Does anyone know what happened?

  9. JJHarmen

    SMH (semis) have gone up 12 days in a row. The graph is getting parabolic looking. One day it will put in a final top and we’ll wondering why no one was loading up on SOXS, now at 18.92. Of course, by the time SMH does top out, SOXS could have lost another 90% of it’s value. There is just no way to know the ‘when’ part.

    1. Gary Post author

      You need to widen your charts out a lot further. The semis’ haven’t even broken the 2000 highs yet. They could potentially double once the breakout occurs.

      Remember bull markets almost always go much much further than anyone can initially imagine. This is why so few ever really make any money off a bubble. They think way too small.

      Look at that final vertical phase from 98 to the top in 2000. We could see something like that again during this vertical phase.

    1. vin

      Thanks. That is consistent with what I have discovered that is with some houses it is marginable at 25%. Some how I thought that they are governed by the same regulations. Unfortunately, neither of our brokers consider it as marginable.

      Well done on your trades. Congratulations.

      Are you still into fine wines and expensive cars for your woma(e)n?

      I am also curious about that wife exchange stuff you talked about. Unfortunately because of time I did not follow the episode at that time. Though I would love to know the outcome.

      You have an enjoyable evening, my friend.

  10. Nada

    Good job Goild. You must understand the reasons I would be skeptical – especially with the 21,000 shares of JNUG.

    Do you still have the 2500 JNUG and 1k GDX in your swing? Miners may see some follow through tomorrow.

    1. Nada

      Lol Goild, that was the shortest “old turkey” in history! Anyway, I going to sleeping dogs lie and take you for your word moving forward. Good trading to all πŸ™‚

  11. Goild

    These two days have been hectic with trading.
    Quiet frankly I still need to learn how to control myself and don’t do so poorly.
    Getting in early and leaving early. Leaving a lot of cash on the table.
    AT is quite a master. Very good timing.

    Vin,

    It is a pity that BD is not posting. His wife must have beaten him for losing money.
    As per the wife exchange, of course I was joking and with a couple of wine glasses.
    But of course, we men secretly dream of having so many women. It would be fantastic to wake up surrounded by say three of four twenty something beautiful girls all eager to give you unimaginable sexual pleasure and fantasies. Of course, I have another glass of wine well deserved.

    Lena,
    thanks for letting me know about availability, though my well younger wife, I doubt she would dumped me after the life she lives. Nothing fantastic but quite convenient.
    She is very pretty and constantly guys are hitting on her.

    Roadrunner,

    Thanks for noting the comments. Yes, I wish you excellent trading.

    As per my trading as Christian would say, it needs an overhauling.

    We need to get the good stuff form Nada. He is demanding stuff form us, he needs to pay for it by giving us awesome trades.

    We need to keep this blog, part of our work place, exciting and useful.
    We need to attract bright minds.
    And we have a lot of brain power. We should come by some awesome trades.
    We need some one good at organizing.
    Gary charges a fee, but we are stingy. Why paying Gary? In fact we work for him for free as we provide excellent advertisement free of charge. And oh boy, advertisement is quite expensive these days.

    We will see tomorrow brings.

  12. primetime

    Christian, Nada, Vin,

    I know you guys wont like this, but it is probably time to find someone else to pick on. You all have been pretty relentless, almost like bullies towards goild. That is what causes the problems. I sense a little jealousy?

    1. roadrunner

      @primetime. I think they are all good now with Goild. Like goild mentioned, christian and nada, as well as many others, spanky, jake, jacob, jimsee, palobar and a host of others I am sure i am forgetting, do provide lots of insight with charts and a wide variety of information to help all of us in our day, swing trading or investing. Even our host, Gary, comes up with a few ideas now and then….LOL. As a group, we don’t have to be adversarial with each other.

    2. Christian

      Not entirely sure why I’m included in this.. I haven’t been on here all day and would hardly call my last few comments to Goild bullying.

      And are you gonna bust my balls if I fart in my sleep tonight? I mean the wife doesn’t mind but you might πŸ™‚

  13. Gary Post author

    Most of you should pull up a long term chart of the semi’s. That will give you the potential target before this move will be due to take a breather.

    So many traders just have no clue what is going on in the markets right now. It’s causing them to miss one of the best long opportunities in years.

    And so many are still stupidly trying to pick a top every other day. (Just like I predicted they would.)

        1. vin

          Thanks. And, I agree. The market isn’t rational and has been irrational for a long time but then the amount liquidity injected isn’t rational either.
          I asked because I am skeptical of SM myself but then I have decided to follow Gary with some dough. Trading patterns show that he may be on to something. Presently, I will stay with these positions.

  14. Goild

    Good morning,

    Somehow having had JNUG at $26 is telling there will be a repeat.
    With a calmer mind I got 1K JNUG shares at $19.90.
    Yesterday we had a reminder of what a terrible falling knife can be, they just dive relentlessly.
    Thus there is much to say about shorting as the preferred mode.
    Let us make money today and have fun.

  15. Adrian

    Still Short on S&P 500 with $20USD in a 1:300 CFD, 2550 with a stop loss in 2557 on futures Price, since the past thursday night, , due that ECRI’s Weekly Leader Index has a strong divergence, from +10 to -0.1, and my Stochastics + volumen signaled a posible pullback/correction.

    1. Nada

      That’s not how it works – you can not select a specific ticker. The report is most useful with its final print at 5pm – 5:15pm eastern.

      Remember, if an asset is red for the day you will not see SOS and vice versa if the asset is green you will not see any BOW. So for example, if someone bought 500 million worth of GLD shares and GLD closed green for the day, you would see nothing even though they bought those shares when GLD was red.

  16. Gary Post author

    The dollar is bouncing off the 50 DMA. This is a possible DCL although a bit short. Of course it will be determined by the euro cycle which will need to top in a left translated pattern to produce an ICL.

  17. AT

    NEW trade, just filled a few minutes ago Oct 12 buy DUST 100% 23.33

    Oct 11 SOLD JNUG 50% 19.39
    Oct 11 BUY JNUG 50% 18.56
    Oct 11 SOLD 75% DUST 24.48
    Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
    Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92
    Oct 6 SOLD 100% JNUG 19.20

    Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
    Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07

  18. Gary Post author

    I’ll need to see how we close, but if the miners can’t follow through on yesterday’s reversal the odds would be high that the daily cycle has just left translated.

  19. Jimsee

    oct 12 1300 top in gold so far – *if* we take that out after today then uptrend reinvigorates…until then short resistance imo. London strikes again,lol. We need an hourly close < 1291 to up the odds to 'way high dude' for a short to 10/20.

  20. Nada

    You guys need to stop being such a negative nancy in regards to gold. Nada remains long and strong πŸ™‚ I will remind you again of price targets;

    gold
    TP1: 1313
    TP2: 1322
    TP3: 1348

    eurusd
    TP1: 1.19
    TP2: 1.20

    usdollar
    92.25

    usdjpy
    110.40

  21. Spanky

    NEM has also been consolidating like an absolute champ. It had a hell of a spike this summer and has worked off the overbought status by going sideways. Now, that being said, it is possible that there is a nasty shakeout before a breakout, and a quick test of the 100 or 200 dma can’t be completely ruled out. But honestly, I think any such dip will be bought heavily and will be a the catalyst for new highs.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p76524210779&a=549915896&listNum=1

    1. Spanky

      Also note that the bollinger bands on the daily chart are the tightest they have been for as far back as the chart goes (early 1980s). That’s noteworthy.

    2. jacob2

      Agree great charts. Despite the Goldman call for a gold crash when I look at many of the miners charts I just don’t see these breaking support. Look like there bidding there time to make an upside break out move.

  22. Goild

    Got 500 GDX shares more for a total of 1500. Long term hold.
    Have 1000 JNUG shares at $19.90. We will see.
    I see PM and miners going up.

    AT I am surprised about your today DUST trade.
    Good luck.

  23. Christian

    Precious Metals and Miners update:

    I’m starting to see some divergence on the 4 hr chart but don’t let the 50DMA fool you into thinking that this rally is kaput. I think we have one more push up to the 50% fib before the much anticipated roll-over into wave c.

    Will BUY DUST when the time comes.

    1. Nada

      A lot of trapped bulls up there around 1313-1317 (gold futures), so there will be some considerable resistance. LT in back of mind, but continue to see 1348 (spot) as final target. GL!

      1. Christian

        1348 is unlikely — That would imply that the dollar has yet to produce an ICL and that just isn’t the case. That would also mean that Gold would have to trudge all the way back up AND through the 62%Fib and the 76. Again, unlikely with the current construct.

        Also — Look at the Euro. A perfect H&S is currently taking shape and the right shoulder is just about done and ready to roll over.

    1. ziasDad

      Has to do with when futures say the day is over and the next day begins versus when stocks (& therefore etf’s) say when the day is over and the next day begins. That time is different for futures versus the stock market, and it may also be different from one futures ticker to the next.

    1. Christian

      You tell us — JNUG is your specialty πŸ™‚

      **NOTE for Primetime (who’s likely lurking in a corner somewhere, waiting to strike at a moment’s notice): This is an example of fun and friendly banter — NOT bullying.

  24. Spanky

    The US markets just keep going up and up and up. At this rate I have little doubt that Gary’s call will come to fruition. And again, if the yen breaks down here, it will probably provide the market with one more very large spike up before any sort of sideways consolidation or minor correction.

    1. Nada

      No Goild. Gold is consolidating below 1300 for bull move up. All is well with gold, fear not. Miners will follow, don’t join the negative nancy camp – stay long and strong Goild, buy gold you must.

  25. Goild

    I will sell my 1K shares of JNUG when it hits $26. I think now.

    A trader’s mood changes as swiftly as the mood of a beautiful girl: Today I love you, but tomorrow I do not know. If you loose all your money I will still love you, but I will miss you very much.

          1. vin

            You could very well be correct and hope you are correct. But it does not seem so. 1295 is proving to be a difficult barrier. Doesn’t look like it will be broken this time around…… Good luck

          1. vin

            Christian, deep within my heart I am a goldbug. To me the present economic situation is incomprehensible. However, I feel that those in power are still in control.

          2. Christian

            I’m a Goldbug as well Vin but I’m not gonna ignore the obvious and I like to play both sides of the market because I’m a talented MOFO, Lol!!

  26. Christian

    Not sure why you people keep scratching your head when it’s relatively simple — watch the buck!

    The US dollar’s IC is still very much in its infancy. If you choose to ignore it, it’ll be at your own peril.

  27. Goild

    Well, once the seasonal October ends and the holiday season starts PM/miners will have fuel to climb.
    The miners averages are forming a cup and handle like and they will rise, irremediably.

  28. Americano

    I’m not. Last February JNUG correlation monkey business made me say uncle. I am since then all Bitcoin large.
    I love your reports and seeing your success just wanted to add that for ya.

  29. Americano

    As far as gold goes I think it’ll go up – but we’re talking couple hundred here & there. I’ve just been out from the daily tracking since my switch.

    1. Steffmeister

      MUUUUUUAHAHAHA … so all are goldbugs now.

      Have you solved the 911 riddle yet Nada!?

      Money is flowing into Steffmeister 21miners portfolio with a little bit of JNUG since full moon πŸ™‚

      1. Nada

        Hey steff.. no I don’t believe many are bullish, everyday it’s death crosses and gold going to the abyss. I have not solved your riddle, so give me another clue. Cheers.

  30. Adrian

    GBTC is failing to make Higs, for those that want to invest on it, clearly is better on the real Bitcoin.

    I am from MΓ©xico, and there is a well known periodist here, JoaquΓ­n LΓ³pez-DΓ³riga speaking about 5200 on bitcoin, so Bitcoin is to popular and spread on media. Even my mother and family want to invest in Bitcoin, so, i Do Not, not on this “momento” and Bitcoin in overbought.

      1. Steffmeister

        Jupp, Gold&Silver is mother natures money πŸ™‚ I am avoiding craptocurrencies myself. Swedish government will soon launch their eCROWN next year, bye bye bitcoin.

        Soon other governments will follow like usCoin mexiCoin etc.

  31. Gary Post author

    Gold is nearing the 1307 resistance zone. The five-day RSI is now overbought. I’m waiting for the short term sentiment on GLD to reach extremes. Once it does that should be the spot where gold tops and the cycle left translates.

  32. Gary Post author

    The odds are high the half cycle low in oil is now complete and we should get one more higher high before the larger daily cycle tops and we get a deeper correction. Oil should be able to at least make it to $53 or $54 before this daily cycle reaches a top.

  33. Gary Post author

    The yen is now also overbought on the five-day RSI. Once the yen cycle left translates and begins moving down into its immediate cycle low that should start the final decline in gold. We’ll get a very good buying opportunity probably around the beginning or middle of next month would be my guess.

    Keep in mind that at this point these intermediate cycle is left translated so there is a possibility that gold could go below the July low. As long as it holds above the December low gold will remain in a bull market as the yearly cycles would still be advancing.

  34. Gary Post author

    The five-day RSI on the dollar has tagged oversold this morning. Remember, during the advancing phase of an intermediate cycle oversold conditions don’t last very long before triggering another leg up.

    1. Troy

      I did. Grabbed a little JNUG at 19.70. Gary has me nervous here though. Will probably sell half my position by end of day. UWT and GBTC performing nicely at the open.

      1. Nada

        Yes he has been pushing his short cycle scenario with great enthusiasm. I think he is playing it safe and that’s smart. However, his verbiage makes him sound like his has a crystal ball πŸ™‚

        He has pointed out several times that his understandings of currencies markets has been impaired by reported CB interventions and cycles have been thrown out with the and bathwater, yet he is adamant about them now.

        The thing is.. If he is wrong, then its no big deal. He can say, well the dollar continues to from LT cycles.. If he is right, then he looks like a superstar. So playing the odds here, the safe bet is to say gold will fall.

        1. Gary Post author

          We’ve made some very good gains in the metal portfolio so far this year. I’m not willing to risk them on what could potentially be a countertrend move. When I see an ABC correction into a clear intermediate cycle low I will again take a heavy position in the metal portfolio. But I want all of the odds stacked in my favor before I do.

          1. Nada

            Yes smart move. No reason to risk them when the SM is printing free money for everyone. – and thanks for using the word “potentially” πŸ™‚

          1. Nada

            Trump will be speaking at 12:45pm eastern about Iran. Who knows what to expect with the miners. Ask AT, he seems to have a good handle on playing long/short.

  35. Lenapowich

    These rug pulls with the miners is getting over done. Because the miners are not doing well, everyone thinks gold is going to stall. I don’t believe that and just bought a couple hundred more GDXJ @34.45

  36. JJHarmen

    Nada, what is your opinion on the SM? Do you think it’s going to continue to melt up with no serious corrections? I am itching to short but realize that a vertical move would kill the shorts in a big way.

    1. Nada

      I thought SPX 2514 would be a show stopper, then I thought 2530-2540.. but like you said, it keeps melting up. Hell if I know, I will not be a buyer unless there is a noticeable correction though.

  37. JJHarmen

    Got that Nada. I was reading today that a record number US citizens are optimistic about the stock market going higher but household ownership is at a near record low level of 54%. Does that mean people are going to pile into the markets in big numbers or does it mean households are too broke to participate?

    1. vin

      Isn’t that funny? There is glut of liquidity and no one has money. LOL! That is exactly the reason I was so negative on SM and then turned around and got converted into a true believer. It is all the whim of those who have the dough and they have so much of it that they don’t know what to do with it. And, it has to go somewhere. So why not SM?

  38. Spanky

    The underperformance of the miners is pretty telling here.

    Now, I suppose it’s not out of the question that gold could vault higher Monday and never look back and the miners start their next leg up. I don’t think that will be the case though.

    Instead, I think the miners are telling us gold is at best going to be stuck in a triangle consolidation (regardless if gold goes higher from here). At worst, the miners are predicting a lower low in gold and probably a lower low than the July low in the miners.

    I hope I am wrong, but you have to be a pessimist when you hold miners. We have seen this behavior time and time again. Expect the worst, hope for the best.

    1. vin

      I wish you were wrong. But, unfortunately it looks like you right. It seems to be more or less clear at this stage. Yet who knows what happens on Monday or even in the next hour and fifteen minutes.

  39. JJHarmen

    So true Spanky. GDX is not running away but it is up. $30 looks like an impossible target but look what happened with oil stocks and how quickly they took off. Oil stocks were ‘predicting’ that crude was going lower while they were selling down and exactly the opposite happened. Remember Pedestrian’s prediction that oil was going down to $40? Didn’t happen.

    1. Spanky

      Maybe this time is different. But even if the miners are about to explode upwards imminently, that upwards move is, 99.9% of the time, preceded by a massive spike down (20-30% or more in a very short period), just for the hell of it. The banksters will get their ridiculous fills. They always do. There is no such thing as a smooth ramp up from a base in the miners.

    2. Gary Post author

      Big explosive moves occur out of yearly cycle lows. Gold is in the middle of an intermediate cycle, so the odds are very slim for a big explosive move at this time.

      The energy stocks put in a yearly cycle low back in August, that’s why they had such an explosive move.

      If you can be patient and wait for the next ICL that’s the point where the miners will be primed and ready for another big trending move.

  40. victor

    so frustrating, I’m tired of waiting for freaking SPX to pull back a bit more then 00X%, ROBO ratio telling no correction in sight, unless Kim do something stupid soon…

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s looking more and more likely that the stock market has entered a runaway move. Runaway moves, despite the name, are slow grinding creeper trends that just keep chugging higher. They rarely produce big percentage moves on any one day so sentiment never really gets excessive.

      I’ve seen these things last as long as 6 to 8 months.

      If this is the vertical phase then at some point the creeper trend will morph into a more explosive phase and will get 1 to 3 months of very aggressive gains.

  41. Gary Post author

    Folks, you can either pay attention to what’s happening, or you can continue to bury your head in the sand. The mining stocks are not behaving like they should if this was going to be a successful and sustained rally. The juniors in particular are struggling. They are sending a pretty clear signal that the metals are not ready to break out and head towards 1500 just yet. The sector is still stuck in the basing phase that it’s been in all year.

    1. Spanky

      Agreed. Based on the monthly Ichimoku cloud of some of the silver miners I follow, we could see weakness/lower lows into February-March ’18. Here’s Impact Silver’s monthly chart (I believe only stockcharts subscribers can see it) and what I expect will happen in terms of price in the future. The odds of that giant red Ichimoku cloud being penetrated from below are basically 0, IMO.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IPT.V&p=M&b=5&g=0&id=p28960848265&a=550152729&listNum=1

  42. Spanky

    Someone is selling the hell out of the juniors on every uptick. Can’t imagine its nervous longs. More likely big money shorting in advance of a bloodletting.

    1. Nada

      You guys are cracking me up. Spanky and Gary have become uber bearish. You guys know the miners are the devils playground for the bankers. Seeya on the moon bitches!

      1. Spanky

        We’ve seen this play out time and time again. The corrections go on longer and lower than any goldbug dreams. If this were a legit rally in the miners, they would be outperforming today. Can they go even higher next week? Maybe, but days like today are the clearest possible that big money is shorting the crap out of this sector. Why wouldn’t smart money be buying today if it was blue skies ahead? Nope, maybe we get a triangle consolidation if we are lucky. But I think they are going to beat the miners up like crazy into the next ICL, just because they can and they know anyone who has been accumulating over the last year will panic if they can sink the miners below the trading range they have been in for over a year. Again, I hope I am wrong on this and this time is different and they vault to the moon next week.

        1. Nada

          I have seen countless runs in gold when miners did not confirm. Miners are very frustrating, we can all agree on that. Personally, I no longer pay attention to them to determine price action for gold – however, I do think they will eventually make a big move if gold goes where I think its going.

          All I hear (various sites) is left translated cycle. No one is talking about 1400 gold anymore. Psst – guess what? They will be πŸ™‚

          1. Spanky

            Like I said, it could be that gold forms a triangle and we go up and down for the next few months before breaking out next year. Hell it could even form a higher high here and then roll over hard. If you are trading gold that is one thing. But the point is, there won’t be a sustainable breakout above 1400 this IC. End of story.

    1. Spanky

      They may not necessarily collapse. The 200 WMA is now flattened out, so I would be shocked if they close below that level (which means it will probably happen). At best the miners will churn sideways to down until next spring, IMO. I am old turkey long. I am just being realistic.

    1. JJHarmen

      No email was necessary. ‘He’ is well aware of every word that is printed on this blog site. It just takes a few more people to utter the words” I miss Pedestrian ” and he will be back like files on shit.

  43. Nada

    There was someone in here who referenced an indicator that was on par with sentinmentraders sentiment gauge. Does anyone remember the specifics – tired of paying for that site.

  44. Bob

    It seems like the Juniors are following the currencies rather than gold. Gold is up $11 and JDST is green; both USD and the EURO have pretty well recovered from this mornings action but no recovery in gold.

  45. ocram

    Gary,
    Bitcoin at new highs,I’m getting almost every day a mail telling me that I will get rich if I buy cryptos……this should be the sign of a top but it continue to go up….like the SM!
    Gold and Miners are avoided like the plague.
    Are you still convinced that gold/miners are in a bull market???

      1. Spanky

        SLV bottomed on the 9th. The silver miners (SIL) have done nothing but trend down since then, and rather acutely at that. Does that strike you as being bullish for either?

  46. JJHarmen

    I wonder if Bigdaddy closed out his short positions on the SM? He would be getting killed if he didn’t although I think he was into silver which would mitigate his SM losses some what. It doesn’t look like he’s coming back.
    Now that is someone that I miss.

  47. Goild

    What dammed manipulators today.
    They did not let the miners follow gold.
    As usual I got into the falling knife and managed to be a bit green today.
    Though I left on the table 5K JNUG shares. Average price is $19.31.
    I expect on Monday to have a gap up to level the miners with gold.
    Yes, it is a coin toss, perhaps. I see JNUG tagging $26 again.
    Recall that most times in this kind of two month cycles, once gold reverses it keeps going.
    Thus gold may continue climbing.
    Let us have a nice weekend, sleep well, have wine glasses, and women around.

    1. vin

      Oh Man! How did you do that? You really have us ordinary minds confused:

      Goild
      October 12, 2017 at 8:05 am
      Got 500 GDX shares more for a total of 1500. Long term hold.
      Have 1000 JNUG shares at $19.90. We will see.
      I see PM and miners going up.

      AT I am surprised about your today DUST trade.
      Good luck.

  48. Goild

    Hey Vin,

    Well I still have the 1500 GDX shares.
    On the 1000 JNUG shares which are in a small account,
    I have a loss for yesterday of ~-$540 and today of -$100,
    Today my swing and day trading accounts show a profit of $354. Or a net of +$254 for today.
    I left 2K shares in the swing account and 2K shares in the day trading account.
    With 4K+1K shares JNUG closing at $19.36 makes my averages purchase price $19.31 as I stated.
    This does not include the $540 loss, which was not really a loss as in the day trading account I made $1100 yesterday for a net gain of $560. I close the week with +$2209, the lowest in a while.
    Just hope I will not have a terrible surprise on Monday.

    I must tell that if someone would meet me on the street, that one would not think I am smart
    or bright. I often have to stand as people are condescending, I guess because of my looks.
    I make a lot of mistakes in trading. Having not so small accounts helps to hedge many of the mistakes.
    Here and there luck saves me. One factor that is decisive is the daily trading, practice in this business makes no perfect but good. I sit here every morning with the same conditions to promote trading consistency.

    The thing I am surprised at is that I get not tired of the game. I look forward to play every day. It is a challenge to be green every day. Its excitement beats by far any game you can think of.
    Intellectually it is also stimulating as to finding structure where there is no structure.
    The game probes the depths of who you are and your life outlook.
    The game is simply fascinating.

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