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Man, I hope the Nasdaq 100 does that on steroids over the next 7 months 🙂
But Gary, how do we know that a vertical drop, as seen in late Feb 2007 isn’t dead ahead?
I guess if you got in early enough, you’d still be up even after that big drop though!
In a trending market, one needs different tools. Too much anxiety about missing a move is needless. If one dip is missed, one can always buy on the next dip.
One would have already missed a huge move in the Dow playing that strategy.
Vertical markets don’t behave the same as a normal market. And keep in mind we may not even get a dip here. This could just reverse again today and continue higher.
Markets can do anything anytime. Big/ small is just relative. Different players have different skill levels. As long as one is making some money, it is OK.
Today it is all about big caps in the dow. tqqq, soxl, labu, are flat to down. When dow does a lonely walk, it pays to be cautious.
GDXJ, the HUI, the XAU, and the yen have all confirmed failed daily cycles. The correct strategy now is to sell rallies.
Although I suspect most will ignore me as usual and try to fight the trend.
Most traders have to learn these things the hard way by losing money, and many will never learn no matter how much money they lose.
if its the failed daily cycles as you said, then what will follow next?
A failed daily cycle just means the market has started stair stepping down. Lower highs and lower lows. So yes most of the time it means an ICL decline has begun.
What will happen next?
Usually a BLOODBATH phase to scare the heck out of the bulls. And when the bears start showing up on the blog with their “Gold is still in a bear market Bullsh*t” that’s when you wanna start building a position in the Metals 🙂
Human nature never changes — Gary à la Savage
Money Flooded Into Stocks Last Week – Here’s What to Do
And I’m in my third try shorting S&P 500 with a CFD 1X300 from 2575 futures Price witn $20USD, and stop loss on 2580, but I will buy this correction for a end of the year rally, the ECRI’s Weekly Leader Index has been up for trhee weeks, but I supose the friday GDP will not goin to be as nice everybody wants
I’m Short AUS 200 with a CFD 1X300 too, since thursday night
The number of traders on this blog who keep trying to short bull markets and buy bear markets is truly astounding.
Funny I implied that same reasoning a few days back and I got an answer that was just baffling.
I would not put money on JNUG for a long swing trade.
Instead use NUGT or better get 3X GDX.
JNUG is now about NUGT/2.
It used to be about equal.
agreed. Although I’d go farther and say to avoid the triple leveraged funds for all trading except very short term, day trading or trades that you plan to hold not longer than 2 or 3 days. The triple leveraged funds have horrible decay problems. They tend to go to zero, so they periodically do reverse splits on them to keep them above zero. Pull up a chart of GDX and compare it to NUGT over the past several years.
Swing trades lasting more than a day or two, use GDX or GDXJ.
Are you serious? Have you looked at the charts of tna, tqqq or soxl lately?
You are sadly misinformed :/
There is absolutely nothing wrong with holding a triple leverage through the duration of an intermediate cycle. I do it all the time and the gains are outstanding, and more than make up for whatever re-balancing needs to take place.
DECAY becomes an issue if you’re stubbornly holding a LOSING POSITION over a lengthy period of time.
Do your homework..!
Today’s prdiction: Opening gap, test highs, sell off, close up slightly.
In other words, same as every other day.
Gold stock prediction: Goild will make money on them somehow.
New highs for the DOW already.
The Yield Curve looks like it may be getting started flattening out. This could take a couple years, but its worth noting.
Wonder how you are doing?
I hope very well.
Now you see why I wasn’t willing to gamble on biotech. Washington is just too unpredictable.
You are right as always. But, I feel that now labu will do extremely well if your prediction of the vertical rise in SM holds. It was down more than 4% today. It should end the day green.
labu in green already. Amen!
With this statement today Gary has the potential to become a contrarian signal 🙂 But that’s a great exception. He’s usual on spot like few others are.
It has nothing to do with being right or wrong on Biotech’s. I simply don’t want to be at the mercy of the Washington politicians possibly doing something that could damage the sector.
It is hard to believe the FED will keep the interest rates low.
Thus the yield curve needs to yield.
vix trending up and svxy sputtering.
fundamentals against gold today, but it is holding above Oct6 and did not rally into Oct20 – strange juju – remain hedged imo!
What will drive the stock market into a vertical move beyond where we are at right now? Gary, and many others, think it will be money coming from the over active printing of the central banks . However, a study of the ETFs of 42 countries shows something interesting. (USA gets SPY and QQQ)
The top performing markets, YTD, has not been those whose central banks have supposedly printing money willy nilly. Here are the rankings :
China (FXI) 7
USA (QQQ) 17
Japan (EWJ) 26
Switzerland (EWL) 30
USA (SPY) 32
Some of the EU countries rank in the top ten but others are way down the list. The top performer has been Poland (PLND)
In conclusion, if one believes that the US markets are going to go “vertical” due to to FED QE and other central money printing, what are the other 31 country stock markets going to do that are currently out performing the S&P and where is the money going to come from?
Maybe you haven’t been paying attention, this stock markets are already going vertical.
Of course I have been paying attention. However, you are pushing hard with the narrative that the US markets are going much higher (10 or 20 thousand for the Nasdaq) . I have some issues with that notion and furthermore, you have been wrong before.
BTW, I missed adding the UK to the list, another big money printer. The UK ranked number 36 (YTD).
So, Gary, your rational is that the central bank money printing money bonanza will ultimately drive US markets to unbelievable heights. You may be proven right but can you explain why are the stock markets of the biggest central bank money printers are badly under performing the likes of Argentina, Chile, Taiwan and so many others?
Money is leaving the bond market and going into stocks.
The answer to your question IS IN THE QUESTION. Look at the countries that you picked, Lol! You’re trying to compare Argentina, Chile, Taiwan to the US of A??!
The US is a political behemoth and a political bulldog!! They set the tone, whether you like it or not. Think Roman empire. Argentina and Chile by comparison make good wines 🙂
Excellent point. Also consider that the absolute amount of money injected by the USA is very large because of the size of its economy (21 trillions by the federal govt. alone). Second, there is no dearth of liquidity for everything to go up at the same time. It is not just one country vs the other. The amount of money floating around is mind boggling be it China, India, Brazil or any other country. Third, stock markets worth is not that large compared to real estate or bonds.
Btw by no means do I suggesting the vertically up scenario. However, considering Gary’s recent record I am hesitant to contradict him. Actually, I have decided to follow him and “invest” in SM. We will see.
Vin, you do know that the FED stopped “injecting” money into the US economy a few years ago, right? Not only that, starting this month, they are on track to DRAIN money. The FED will be of no help driving US markets higher unless they get back into QE.
Don, first of I don’t believe them. It is a credibility issue.
Second, does it really matter? There is so much money in the system already, not only in the US but all over the world. I can give you hundreds of examples. Did you know that the US govt. is running a deficit of about 700B/annume as we speak! And, according to them the economy is doing well. What will happen when the economy doesn’t do well? God help us!
And, then add the states, cities and what not!!!! Don, there is money everywhere. Wherever it (the liquidity) decides to go it will create havoc. SM is already expensive, so are bonds, so is real estate (all over the world! India! China! Canada! …), and so are collectibles, companies are loaded with cash ……. so, yes the money can go to the market or anywhere else for that matter.
Don, first of ALL I don’t believe them. It is a credibility issue. … sorry for the horrible typing … never could type …
Gary’s “recent” record has been good but I wouldn’t bet the farm on a nine year old bull market doubling from this point.
I couldn’t agree more. I am only betting my backyard and not my farm.
Gary, contrary to your advise I just purchased options on TNA. Wish me luck.
Holdings 1500 GDX shares
1000 JNUG shares
1000 NUGT shares
Day trading money has been hedging the PM/miners decay.
The average of (NUGT+JNUG)/2=$19 over 4 gives about $5 bucks.
Buying either last year at $5 bucks was a great deal.
Having the equivalent of $50K invested in them should make good money, shall they decide to run up.
Pratically the whole financial world is seeing, from here until the end of the year, an inverse H&S for the dollar,a subsequent fall in the price of gold/silver/miners,the continuation of the bitcoin bubble as well as an acceleration of the SM bubble.
I’m seeing also gold advocates that are changing their newslwtters into a sort of bitcoin report.
There is not a single gold bull left for the last quarter of the 2017.
This is why I’ve said many times that any serious trader needs to have a subscription to sentimentrader.com. Way too many people extrapolate sentiment from what they’ve read on a couple of sites.
Actual sentiment for gold intermediate degree is dead neutral. In sentiment short-term is only slightly bearish so to say that everyone is bearish on gold is an erroneous statement.
CoTs support this too. Lots of room to fall. $1200 or sub-1200 is easily doable into December. Silver is even worse. I expect it to get absolutely smashed into the ICL. Even if it holds up for most of the IC, near the end it will more than make up for it. The CoT shorts actually rose a bit when price was flat to down a week or two ago. The same thing happened in the Fall of 2016, when silver basically replicated 2015. Looks like we get the same exact thing this year too.
Under these sorts of conditions (apparently waiting on ECB or GDP) having a firm opinion on price action is dicey to say the least (gold). Nov 2, and Dec 5 are the next Big dates imo.
Anyone who thinks yen is in a new bull market along with gold is delusional. Yen is in serious trouble here. I expect when it does break down on the weekly and monthly chart, it is going to cause a cascade lower in the mining stocks. We may start the rally into the half cycle high in a week, but it will be the prelude to a collapse, along with the mining stocks. $usdjpy monthly chart–that is what a new bull market looks like.
Good call on the DOW
$usdjpy headed back to 120. That level will 100% get tested in the next couple of months. That would put GDX back in the $18 region. There will likely be a sucker’s rally at $21 though, since that is the 200 WMA, and everyone is expecting a bottom there.
Spanky, by which you mean there will not be a bottom around GDX 18 (but much much lower)?
No clue at this point. It’s possible GDX is range bound between the 2016 high and 18 for years.
It may take another IC after this one for the miners to really break down though. Same is true for the yen.
Looking at the miners in a vacuum, they look decent on every timeframe. The problem is, the yen does not. And where the yen goes, the miners usually follow, eventually.
The semis are continuing their non stop parabolic move. Looks like 2000 all over again.
Incredible! isn’t it? i did not see it coming. I thank Gary for the insight.
Gary didn’t see it coming either – when the SOXL was in the $40’s last year he made the comment it was going to end well with the semi’s.
I don’t remember that for sure. What I do know for sure is that I bought soxl only after Gary became super hot on semis. So, I am thankful.
Vin, nice to hear that you did so well on SOXL. Did you tell us here the on the day you bought it?
jj I think I did but it is immaterial. The jury is still out. I haven’t sold it and I don’t plan to sell it in near future. These 3X aren’t investments. They are a gamble. And, I am gambling that sox will go straight up to at least 1300 from here, as per Gary’s advise.
I am not sure whether you know it or not that one can lose money in 3X while the X (the underlying index) actually goes up. By the way I also own tqqq and tna. I posted here when I bought tqqq but then I wrote covered call options on it. TNA: I bought call options today.
Wasn’t going to end well
I recall Gary emphatically stating in July or so that gold would never close below its 200 dma again. I guess he is going to have to admit he was wrong. I want to actually see him say it though. lol.
If Gary has been wrong about gold never crossing below it’s 200 DMA, it’s no big deal and it’s doubtful anyone has lost a bundle based his belief. However, if the SM does not go vertical (piece of cake for the Nasdaq to hit 10000 and maybe 20000 sort of talk), that will be a very big deal and a lot of folks are going to lose in a big way.
I guess Don is either playing dumb or ‘devil’s advocate’ for the sake of argument? I can’t tell.
Folks, it doesn’t matter that QE ended (And by the way, I would take any OFFICIAL report provided by the “powers that be” with a grain of salt) the damage has already been done.. just like when you drop a stone in a body of water; it creates a RIPPLE EFFECT.
You’re also forgetting the obvious: Markets don’t trade based on Fundamentals, that’s an unfortunate misconception by the masses that can’t see past a lifetime of cultural brainwashing. Markets trade on human emotions.. which by the way can easily be manipulated or molded in order to push forward a political/economical agenda — 9/11 is a perfect example of that.
So with that in mind, when you combine the rippling effect that QE brought on and human emotions.. You have a Market that will continue to defy logic and any expectations you may have.
When you consider the explicit Fed put, this market behavior at least to me makes complete sense. Why should stocks ever go down? Sure, you could have 10-20% risk at max to the downside in case the Fed really wants to let the market cool off, but the upside is literally infinite.
It’s too bad commodities and gold don’t have this type of explicit support.
Christian: I am not “playing dumb” You are correct about the ‘ripple ‘ effect but only to the extent that the money has ALREADY found it’s way into the markets. For example, as fast as the Swiss National Bank creates money, as well as the BOJ, the money goes into the markets (bond and equity). American equities are not even the chosen favorite anymore as evidenced by the considerable out performance of markets in countries whose central banks are not playing the game. So, where is the NEW money going to come from that elevates the US markets into the vertical move Gary is touting?
Yen carry trade is more than enough. It has worked for the US market since 2012 and there is no end in sight. Borrow yen at below 0% and go long US stocks. It’s no lose.
Don, I don’t know what part of the world you live. But I am sure if you look around you will find that there is too much liquidity. It hasn’t shown up in price inflation yet because the consumed material is produced mainly by those who haven’t benefited by the induced liquidity.
Only a very small amount of the liquidity has gone into SM or anything else. Let me give you the example of the SM. Before that let me point of out that the US is THE SM. About 27% of the WORLD and I mean the whole world SM is in the US. Don’t underestimate US, particular economically and/or militarily.
And, coming to the world SM, its total worth is only about 70T ….. so how much of the 100 trillions (or so) injected into the world economy has gone into the American SM, considering the underlying value of the American SM.
If you do some investigation, you will find that we indeed live in interesting times and day by day it keeps on becoming more interesting. I would like to repeat that I don’t know if the SM will go up or down, but I can assure you that if the liquidity does decide to go into the SM, it will be real fireworks. But the real interesting time will come once it reaches the peak wherever it might be.
btw there are 16 seock marketd is the world which are worth more than 1T each. They are:
2 in the US
1 in Canada
2 in India
3 in China
5 in Europe
1 in SK
1 in Japan
1 in Korea
And I was wrong. Out of the around 69T the US is worth about 26T. NYSE alone is about 18.5T. In my previous post I forgot about the NASDAQ.
This a small fraction of the money in bonds and real estate. Bonds: hihihi! And, real estate: 50 sq. m. apartments in Hongkong sell for a million per piece. And, Toronto and Vancouver are no better. And India? You have to go there to see and appreciate the amount of liquidity that county has. And, that money isn’t owned by the average Indian. Average India is as poor as …. That money is owned by the wealthy. It can be shifted to the US SM at the click of a button.
btw there are 16 stock markets is the world which are worth more than 1T each.
I repeated Korea but missed Australia. The last item is “1 in Australia”
This is a bad day for gold.
I think I am a bit green though.
Hopefully the blood shedding will end soon.
I am done for the day.
December 12,13 is the FOMC. It’s a strong short until then, just like usual.
The blood shedding will end AFTER the bloodbath phase and once Gold reaches its ICL, not anytime before that. So anyone buying Miners or Precious Metals at this point is either in denial or asking for an Ass-kicking!
You’ve all been warned time and time again.. How many of you will actually listen to good advice this time?
Haha! I think I already know the answer.
But, (s)he is green.
Gosh Christian, you sound so much like Gary.
He does, doesn’t he?
Well I am not sure if they are the same person. but I like them both. However, their combined cockiness is a bit unbearable at times 🙂 In regards to the SM calls, I really would not put too much seriousness in them;
If you go back in look through the blog, Gary has said some outlandish things in the past – in 2014 he was claiming gold would be trading at 20,000 an oz. As far as being bull in the SM for over a year, that is complete nonsense. The Shit sandwich scenario was in play until Jan and then Gary sat on the sidelines for about 5 months before he starting riding the bull. So I think he just says outlandish things like that to generate a response.
Goild, of course you are green for the day just like we know the sun will rise tomorrow. Goild is the perfect money making machine.
(S)he is unbelievable, Isn’t (s)he? Head (s)he wins and tail (s)he does well, a bright mind indeed.
SM: Vertically up alright. Can it last? It seems to be too good to be true.
And, Gary was so confident of this happening. To be honest I still don’t see any logic in it. But, I am not the one who is going to complain about it.
By now, everyone knows that CAT has risen nearly 5% today to a new all time high of $138, just because it ‘beat’ estimates. Looks like fundamentals are not completely dead just yet.
Consider : Caterpillar expects expects full year earnings to be 4.60 per share on revenues of 44 billion. Sounds pretty damm good huh? However in 2012, CAT earned 8.71 per share on revenues of 66 billion. The high for the stock during 2012 was $116.95.
So, earning are expected to be DOWN 47%, revenues DOWN 33% from that of 2012, but the stock is now 18% HIGHER than it’s peak of 2012.
IBM is another that jumped just a few days ago for beating estimates yet it’s revenue and earnings are way down from three and four years ago. These and many other big name companies are not really doing as well as the media would have us believe.
Does no one else see a problem here or is the promise of a big vertical move just too alluring?
I agree with you. Most everything seems over priced for no good reason and the stuff that appears under priced refuses to go up. Crazy.
That is why companies are doing stock buybacks.
You are so right. It has nothing to do with value. It all has to do with liquidity.
Vin, you do know that the FED, starting this month, they are on track to DRAIN money. ”
Not so much….
Every time I get into a profitable position with silver, it falls back again. I am concerned we may get another bad sell off that takes weeks to recover from. This is a tough market.
Christian, are you still holding on to your DUST position?
Yesterday it was pets. Today it is lite and shop. Danger of being left behind? Unlikely.
Nothing new to report. Inside day. Gold continues to hold the trendline despite the massive gains in USDJPY, yields and modest gains in dixie. Yields and USDJPY have hit tough resistance so that should take some pressure off gold.
Price action is driving the bulls and bears both mad. Bulls can’t get any traction (rightly so with UJ yields and dixie) and bears can’t break support. If Dixie and USDJPY can’t continue to push to new highs then where does that leave gold? Better question is what happens if ECB announces it stops tappering on Thursday? Aww the sweet sound of hopium.
The yen ($XJY) is a wounded duck. The weekly and monthly charts are horrific looking. It has already spent way too much time below the 20 month MA to recover. The lower monthly BB is bending down and price hasn’t yet made contact. 83-84 is for sure going to get hit eventually, but I think in the long run its is going much lower.
In the very short run, I think it’s possible it could back test all the way to the downtrending 50 dma, probably when it is just about to death cross the 200 dma. People will be shorting the every loving crap out of it and the miners though at the 50 DMA.
Since when has the Euro every had any connection to gold?
Never, is the answer.
I have a hard time seeing gold bust through its rising 200 dma on its first try. (Afterall, Gary said gold would never close below it again!) Would like to at least see gold with a failed daily cycle (which tagging the 200 dma soon would produce) and then bounce high enough to convince some bulls that it’s ICL is over.
Spanky at this stage gold doesn’t look good at all.
It may produce one final pop back to the 50 dma before the real reaming starts.
Alternatively, it could head for the 200 dma and either crawl along that MA before collapsing or give us a bounce before collapsing.
Whatever the scenario, every bounce to any technical level of any significance now is going to be shorted by every tom dick and harry.
Silver is the one though that is going to get a true reaming though.
You are way too negative and you’re not going to be able to buy when the opportunity presents itself.
Look at my last post.
Gold is simply building a base and waiting for the dollar to break down out of that megaphone topping pattern. Have the patience to wait for the process to run its course. Once it does then gold will begin the next phase of its bull market in earnest.
I’m old turkey though. Just preparing the lube.
And I am not being too negative. If gold breaks the trendline from 2016, then you will see me get negative. And because that is the case, that means it probably will definitely break the trendline. and then reverse of course after dropping just far enough below to squeeze every last bull out. I don’t really expect gold to drop below $1200.
Don’t be obtuse. Dxy is heavily weighted with euro.
Every wonder why gold can rally with DXY, or go lower with DXY?
Gold should be in the stratosphere with the move the DXY made this last 6 months, but it is not. And the reason is the yen is all that matters, and the yen hasn’t done jack shit in the last 8 months or so and is headed for a retest of its yearly low (at least).
Again, we could see a bounce back to the declining 50 dma, but expect that bounce to be shorted with a veangance. Wake me when it closes back above the 20 month MA. Here’s a hint, it’s going to be a long, long time.
Sub $1200 should be cake. Perhaps the 200 dma will put up a fight for a week or two.
Boy you people surely can come up with some irrational ideas. First off there’s no way we could lose a ton of money. We have our stops right below the last intermediate cycle low. We’re already well into heavy profits so we have a large cushion. At most we might lose some of those profits. But over the last two years we are massively outperforming the S&P. As of the last completed trade the stock portfolio was up 123%. During that period the S&P has been up 26%. Clearly being cautious from the election to the inauguration didn’t hurt us a bit.
Gary, your post scares me. Have you given up on your vertical up scenario already? Glad that I did not bet the farm.
How you managed to extrapolate me giving up on the vertical scenario from my last post I have no idea.
The market is already going vertical. The only question is how long will most of you sit on the sidelines and continue to miss the move.
I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it again: the biggest and quickest moves come at the very beginning of the bull market (baby bull) and at the very end of a bull market (bubble phase).
Human emotions work like a pendulum, the further we fall on the negative side the further we rise on the positive side. At the 2009 bottom we had a selling panic of the magnitude only seen one other time in human history. We need a proportional buying panic before this bull market is over. So to continue to try and rationalize fundamental reasons for why the market can’t go up is just ignorant. All we need for the market to go up is human emotions.
I’ve shown the Robo ratio in several of my videos and it’s still not even vaguely close to levels indicative of a bull market top much last a bubble top.
We are going to see a buying frenzy the likes of which may never have occurred in history. Which is not unreasonable considering central banks have never printed this much money before. But 90% of you are going to sit on the sidelines and miss all of it because you can’t envision any scenario where it can happen.
I hope I am mistaken. On reading your post I got the feeling that you were hedging your bet like any great guru. I thought there goes my backyard which I have bet. But, luckily I did not bet the farm.
Thanks for the clarification.
I’m probably going to be wrong about gold holding above the 200 day moving average. But I called the top of the intermediate cycle almost to the penny and we are making pretty good money on the short side so the metal portfolio is still grinding higher. As of the last trade we added another $30,000 to the portfolio.
Not sure why you thought the 200DMA would stop the bloodbath which as yet to come.
I originally thought we would get a second daily cycle higher. This is before I became aware of the short cycle scenario possibility.
No reduction in the H.4.1
The DJIA is correlated with the sky. Gary has been doing an excellent work here and well done to everyone who is enjoying this historical move. The DJIA gave a modest decline in August and kept moving higher despite the strong bearish cycles at that time. That was a very strong indication that this market was preparing to go through the roof.
The Dollar has made a major low on the 8th of Sep’17. In July’16 Gold made a very powerful top. After 16 months Gold is well below that top. The geometry that took place in the Dollar was much stronger compared to July high in Gold. The move that begun in Sep should be important both in terms of price and time. We may see a 9-month rally are high.
The first Oct time window gave us a nice bounce. We are at the second time window and Gold is moving sideways. The decline is not over. I still expect the July’17 low to be tested. November 17-20 is a major turning point.
GS call for a gold retest of the 16 lows lprobable imo .
I produce from time to time (ie when there is an important market development) a market update which I share with a very small circle of friends for free. Some of them are fund managers. Two hours after Gold made July’16 high, having seen the remarkable math that took place, I emailed my friends noting that ”…it could be it…and that I bet my @@ Gold will retest the 2015 low.”. GC was bullish then. Of cource I do not compare my self to them. I am just an ant. After a few months, Gold made a higher low at the end of 2016. While this low is a higher low (and may look less important to a few), the cycles that were involved here were more important. Consequently, there is no guarantee that Gold will break it. However, if Gold does so, then you may see Gold trade a 3-digit in a matter of days and everyone will throw the towel.
Sub $1200 should be cake. Perhaps the 200 dma will put up a fight for a week or two.
Sub $1200 easily. Expect some bouncy action off of the 200 dma before the plug is pulled.
I am not an expert but IMO the decline will stop around 1200. They may let it penetrate just to scare folks like me but I doubt that it will go below 1200 and stay there for few days. One needs to watch the golds. Miners have been a reasonable indicator.