250 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY-SEMI CONDUCTOR INDEX”

    1. Gary Post author

      Yes I will take down my leverage once the semi conductor reaches 1350 and wait to see if we get something larger than a three-day pullback. If we do I will try to reenter my leverage at the bottom of the pullback.

        1. Gary Post author

          The only thing a log scale will change is trendlines, the resistance levels will always remain the same.

          How many times have I shown you people that trendlines don’t mean a lot in today’s modern markets?

          Folks, you have to learn to evolve and adapt if you wish to survive. Using the same methods and strategies that worked in 2000 and are not gonna work in 2017.

  5. Goild

    I agree Don, the log chart allows one to see some things not visible in a linear chart.
    They invented the log paper to make charts for a good reason.
    A true bubble will change slope in a log scale as in the 2000 bubble.
    Accordingly and currently there is no Nasdaq bubble but uniform percentage increments.
    The change of slope in the log scale reflects the extreme greed and market capitulation of the shorts that cannot stand the heat.
    Gary’s belief in a bubble may come later and could be amazing.
    The uniform slope of the QQQ in the log scale reflects the FED smooth control of the show.
    Since 2010 the Nasdaq has been gaining 19% a year!

    1. Steffmeister

      “the log chart allows one to see some things not visible in a linear chart”

      Exactly Goild, I will post a chart later. That’s why I think Gary is wrong about Gold!

    3. JJHarmen

      One would think 19% per year to be unsustainable and it probably is but that doesn’t mean the Nasdaq will stop going any time soon although it does look a little over done.

  6. Don

    There may or may not be a vertical move. I am certainly not convinced. The Nasdaq may go higher yet but I wouldn’t bet the farm on Nasdaq 10000.

    1. Steffmeister

      No Don but we are close to a top in many indicies. A healthy correction of -10% or a little bit more, I do not know.

      S&P500 is the first one to top out then DJIA and finaly NASDAQ. From mid Nov into first quarter in 2018. The wavestructure in NIKKEI is indicating a top well into 2018, maybe midsummer.

      I am out of Gold at the moment, will post a chart later why I am bearish going forward. I think Gary is wrong about a low late Nov early Dec. We are in a bear in Gold and I am not going to be surprised if a Deflation spike will occur in 2018 taking Gold down to $1000’ish ..

      1. Steffmeister

        I do not expect a crash bcos the dollar has lost so much value since 1929-1987-Today. Just look at 2017!

        The crash is an ongoing process, big complex structures such as the petrodollar, crash in slowmotion.

  7. Gary Post author

    Seriously, don’t you guys get tired of me proving you wrong over, and over, and over?

    It’s like you’re indefinitely waiting for that one time you can say ahhh you were wrong. In the meantime you’ve missed the 10 times that I was right, and all the profits that went with it.

    Is it really worth it to fade all of my calls waiting for that one miss? I’ve clearly demonstrated that my trading strategies work, and work much better than virtually anything anybody else has put forth.

      1. Gary Post author

        They are going to continue to be up with only mild pullbacks until that semiconductor index reaches 1350.

  8. earthkitten

    Gary. Looking at the chart, the semis have gone nowhere since
    2000. All you have is a consolidation for 17 years. Is
    it entirely possible that you have a major breakout that
    will last for several years after 1350 has been breached? As they say, the longer the consolidation,
    the bigger the breakout.

    1. Gary Post author

      Exactly. I tried to warn everyone this was going to happen with the NASDAQ. But of course almost no one listened to me because they thought the bull market was too mature and had to top. Most of them have missed, and are missing this monster move coming out of that breakout.

      I expect the same thing will happen with the semi conductor index but I do expect a pullback from that 2000 high, maybe into an intermediate cycle decline before the breakout.

      1. vin

        But, you do expect the rise to be condensed in duration i.e. large increase in a short period of time?

        1. Gary Post author

          We are clearly in the vertical phase. So many people refuse to recognize it though.

          They get lost in the daily charts and never bother to look at a 10 year chart.

  11. JJHarmen

    Today’s prediction: Opening gap up, sell off moderately, then recovery followed by another sell off into close for a rare down day, even for the QQQ.

    1. JJHarmen

      Geez Goild, once you started posting your now moderate holdings, you have not being doing so well. Maybe you should just go back to your simple summary that worked so well : ” I made _________ (fill in the blank) for lunch money today”.

  18. trendyfollower

    It’s not only investor confidence that’s rising. Consumer confidence is at another ~17 year high. The feel-good economy we last saw from the mid-1990s to 2000 is finally at hand again. Took long enough. Let us all enjoy it.

  19. tallboy

    Gary just want to say I’m glad I have listened to you for awhile now. This latest market call has be nothing short of Genius!!! Nothing wrong with debating here but the blind are blind for a reason. I pull on my Christian faith and wonder why the eyes of some are closed and then some are opened. But keep trying you are only trying to help them.
    Great job.

    2. Nada

      I like the “Nothing wrong with debating here but the blind are blind for a reason. ” comment more. God is punishing certain market participants, while permitting his chosen ones to reap the wealths of the markets. yes, god is great 🙂

      1. tallboy

        Your taking it wrong just an example that’s all. He does not punish you for poor choices, we do that to ourself.

  21. Goild

    After the logarithm analysis I sold 200 UVXY shares to hold 100 shares.

    Except for the GDX account, I am flat after 2 1/2 discussing weeks.
    The diligent work of an ANT ends up storing much value.

    Back to being a trading ANT.

  23. Nada

    This morning’s dip was due to a level being skipped yesterday – gold is notorious for being a level skipper. With that said, my prediction is a big up day for gold tomorrow.

    I base this on flows and timing. Flows have shown clear accumulation, but I will have to re-evaluate my readings if we do not see a very nice gain. Again, here is where we stand in regards to IC timing.

    https://gyazo.com/7803b24c4c0f9bb2dcc3cf9665f52922

    I think we move North all the way into the Dec FOMC meeting, then correct after into ICL. I don’t subscribe to the short IC theory of likesmoney and Gary, but I will be the FIRST to admit I am wrong if we have a failed cycled before. Cheers!

    1. Gary Post author

      When has gold ever gone up big ahead of an FOMC meeting?

      You are betting on events that happen maybe 1% of the time. That is not an efficient way to trade.

      1. Nada

        Maybe you are right. I have less than 10% of my account invested in gold, so its not a substantial bet. Below is a list of hateful things everyone is saying about my friend gold;

        1. Gold will go down and bottom in December
        2. Gold will produce a failed cycle
        3. Gold will go to 1290-1300 before next leg down
        4. Gold is in its intermediate decline
        5. 2018 will be the year where gold makes a higher high
        6. DXY will go to 96-97 because the IHS pattern is guaranteed
        7. 2017 is gonna be a consolidation year for gold
        8. It’s late in its Xth daily cycle, it will most likely roll over further
        9. It’s going down
        10. Miners are telling the story
        11. Miners are leading gold

        I am sure they are all right, muhahahaha!

        1. Gary Post author

          The mistake you are making is you are trying to read a contrarian trade into the metals market before sentiment actually reaches excessively bearish levels.

          A contrarian trade in the middle of a trend is a losing trade.

          You need to wait for sentiment extremes before you try to fight the trend. This is why I keep telling people a subscription to sentimentrader is absolutely critical.

  24. Goild

    JJ,

    Rather than being on swing trades, close all positions by the days end.
    Then day trade to make money every day and at the end of the week, month, year one gets a
    lot of money like ANTS accumulate food for the winter.

    1. Nada

      I understand Goild, metals is for not the faint of heart. Here is what I recommend for any wannabe precious metal traders;

      Its all about positive association Goild. One must be content with DD in the PM sector. How does one go about that? Well you associate something positive with DD Goild. Me? I like to eat donuts when I am having a DD in gold. This way, I don’t freak out in the future and I actually start to ENJOY DD’s. Good trading to all 🙂

  26. Goild

    Yesterday and day before yesterday we had the due picayune bounces.
    Gold candles are under the daily averages, so gold is bearish and further diving.

    And I am going to be dead wrong and regret having sold my shares.

  28. Goild

    I hope BigDaddy is not in divorce proceedings. He has a beautiful wife who is a keeper.
    And the big thing would not be the fight not for the money left, which is probably little after shorting facebook or so, the big fight is for that smart dog Mutt.

    1. Nada

      1. Goild you are stealing my lines from a month ago. 2. How the heck do you now what his wife looks like and what makes you think she is a keeper?

    1. Nada

      Ahh, the last bull has capitulated. Yes tomorrow will be very good day for gold 🙂 Sleep well everyone!

      1. Steffmeister

        You are ignorant Nada, I have for many years pointed out that the Big Fractal in gold points to a retest of the 2015 low. Gary is the baby bullish dude, you are barking up the wrong tree!

        1. Nada

          What happened to 911 riddle – have we forgotten the magic of latin already? Obviously, I was joking, but I should of remembered how sensitive you were from the last time you got upset because you said Gary was not giving you credit and stole your ideas.

    2. Gary Post author

      Steff,
      And you will be wrong again. Interest rates have nothing to do with the dollar. The dollar can go into a bear market with interest rates rising.

      I pointed this out multiple times but most of you continue to ignore me, the dollar is in a megaphone topping pattern and once this countertrend move is finished it will break down. When it does gold will break out of the basing pattern it’s been in all year long.

      The only problem with gold is it’s not moving fast enough for most of the impatient traders. Other than that it’s doing exactly what it should be doing as it waits for the dollar to crumble.

    3. Spanky

      The lower trendline will be tested in March/April. Mark my words. So many indicators point to a major low in that time frame.

    1. Steffmeister

      Yes short term, we are in Fall thats why Gold is Falling haha

      There will be rallys to take advantage of in 2018.

  35. Carl

    The premium price for QQQ call is moving faster than the Dleta… almost the double. Is there anyone who is experiencing higher premium price?

        1. Americano

          Perhaps but I’d avoid that big psychological#. It is TOUGH to get out of gbtc larger sized when the exits are targeted. Holding actual Bitcoin no biggie because you will get an extra coin ( my BTC principal investment is 60% accounted for due to fork coins -dividends- that isn’t distributed to my knowledge in any clear way to GBTC holders look for 2018 to have at least a dozen of these dividends).
          I’d definitely wanna be out a couple days befor 14th – that date may change too – it’s due to block achievement. Here is a way to check & good luck!
          http://www.cryptodaily.net/segwit2x-activation-countdown-timer/

  37. Goild

    Nada,
    Not quite.
    I hold the 2000 GDX shares and will get back the 3X etfs when they hit lower or higher.

  43. Gary Post author

    Oil has reached the $55 target that I predicted for this daily cycle. I kind of doubt it’s going to break through this resistance on the first try though.

    I’m expecting a pullback into a daily cycle low soon. Then a final push to the $60 level for an intermediate cycle top.

  44. Gary Post author

    The NASDAQ started a strong trending move on Friday, but instead of getting on board for the ride, most people were trying to rationalize a reason why it would reverse.

    Just as I predicted, almost nobody will profit from the initial part of the vertical phase. Instead they will try to fight it. Only towards the very end will everybody pile in because they are afraid of missing any more of the rally.

    Right now everyone is afraid the market is going to top.

  45. Gary Post author

    If I had to guess I would say the FOMC meeting today will trigger a spike up in the dollar and a spike down in the euro. That will probably push gold down just far enough to confirm a failed daily cycle, but I would then expect a bounce out of the half cycle low for several days. Just long enough to draw in premature bulls for the bloodletting that will occur later in the month during the bloodbath phase.

      1. Gary Post author

        Nonsense, I don’t hate gold. I’m patiently waiting for a buying opportunity at the intermediate cycle low. I think the next intermediate cycle is going to finally make a higher high and at least reach $1400.

        But we first have to complete the intermediate decline and push sentiment back to excessively bearish levels. That will be the fuel to drive the breakout move.

  46. Nada

    See my comment above with the screenshot. 5:19am big volume and gold up with Dixie green and UJ on fire. I was kidding about hating gold.

    1. Nada

      Who knows what that move means, maybe clearing shorts or maybe frontrunning. All speculation, but the divergence between UJ and gold is quite remarkable.

    1. Christian

      If I could SHORT Gold right now I would, except that I’m heading back to bed for some more cuddling time with my pillow..!

    2. Nada

      Who knows, surely possible or someone knows something we do not. The day got a little bit more interesting with the morning gambit 🙂

      1. Christian

        Maybe..

        but we’ve seen this countless times —

        A BIG BOLD MOVE which turns tits-up by day’s end but hey, I’ll bite.. let’s see if this one holds 🙂

  48. LiesandDamnLies

    Watching from Australia

    Unusual event.

    JPY=X rising, Gold rising. Oil rising all at the same time.

    Doesn’t happen that often.

    cheers Lies

  49. spectrum2105

    Gary –

    In 2011 when NAZ reached the level of the 2007 top, and 2016 when it reached the level of the 2000 top it had 20%+ corrections that took a year for price to get back on track.

    I realize semis are just a part of NAZ but do you think hitting their 2000 high will just cause no more than a minor brief pull back?

    2. Gary Post author

      No it won’t be that big because that was a seven-year cycle low for the NASDAQ. All I’m expecting is an intermediate cycle low.

  54. Gary Post author

    Natural gas is just whipaswing people to death. I’ve seen quite a few newsletter writers trying to trade this thing and they are just wrecking everyone’s portfolios.

    This is exactly why I won’t trade this particular commodity. It’s just too volatile.

  55. Gary Post author

    Well we’ve got the reversal back below the 10 day moving average, now we just need to see how gold closes and if we get that spike down to confirm a failed daily cycle on the FOMC statement.

    If so I wouldn’t get to bearish as we’re likely to have a bounce from that level. I explained why in my Monday report for subscribers. It’s why many assets tend to bounce when they break a support zone. But depending on whether it’s early or late in the daily cycle will tell you whether or not the bounce will fail and continue down. If gold confirms a failed daily cycle now and bounces then you can almost bet the house that the bounce will only be temporary and another leg down will begin. It’s just too early in the daily cycle to have a final DCL.

    The only time one should believe in a double bottom is when it occurs very late in a daily cycle. Double bottoms in the middle of a cycle never hold.

    1. Bluebellkid

      If the second leg of the double bottom does not go lower than the first leg then you don’t shake out all the weak holders and chances are it keeps going lower. For a proper double bottom you need that shakeout which makes the chances the move will have legs a lot better.

    2. Nada

      “Well we’ve got the reversal back below the 10 day moving average, now we just need to see how gold closes and if we get that spike down to confirm a failed daily cycle on the FOMC statement.”

      And now its back above the 10ma. We may want to wait for close before second guessing this move.

  56. Goild

    Now I hear the chances of the double bottom have improved.

    The situation we have is similar to last November/December.
    As the FED cast on concrete the next rate hike, gold will sink.
    The last days after the drop have been picayune, same as last year.
    There is no economic force currently to lift gold, unless a geopolitical item sparks.

    1. Nada

      No Goild, you already said it was a bull trap this morning, so you can’t talk out both sides of your mouth 🙂

      Also basic lesson – Rate hikes are good for gold and bearish for USD. You may want to change your thinking and stop jumping across each side of the fence.

    1. Nada

      The market is not slow. The volume today is very high. I really do not know what type of indicators you look at Goild.

  58. Don

    SM at new highs, gold is up, bonds are up, crude is up and the list goes on. Long anything is a winner.

    1. Herman

      my short-term strategy in gold: buying some dust right now and some more if the 50% retracement level is hit, then potential spike down on FOMC below former bottom level, sell dust and buy some nugt. Just to play, to gain experience.

    1. Nada

      Yes I am waiting for this to play out:

      “JDST………..going for 80.00 maybe even possible 100.00 that’s the plan Gold going down!!”

  63. Jimsee

    like lots of things, the marginal utility of a dbl-bottom cal lies in the trading tactics – selling your long puts on the gold 1264 zone hit last week was *the* right trade and call , the prems move fast, if a ~2-3% 3-5 day bounce is meaningless to your position then waiting for the whip is the right call. not a lot of universals in trading.

  66. Jimsee

    pattern, sentiment and cycles say a sharp short down on gold is likely – if it fails to materialize the reverse is likely – why is above my pay grade.

    2. jacob2

      Yep. Watching to see if this long bottom on PM stocks holds. So far so good. Most expect it to crack. Readying my buy list.

  67. Goild

    JNUG swing up from $15.4 to $16.1 or about $0.7 rise.
    We may have the swing down later to JNUG $14.7.

    1. vin

      $16 for jnug seems to be the anchor for the elastic band. If it overcomes that, it will go down significantly? $8?

  68. Don

    The last nine years of stock market elevation and endless bad news has been in preparation for this time of the “grand slam” (credit to Nada) barrage of good economic data and SM giddiness. It doesn’t matter if the data is fudges, corrupt or just plain fabricated, the public will be conditioned to accept that boom times are here again and eventually, they will pile into stocks.

  69. Don

    Tops only occur when the public is in the market buying in a big way. That doesn’t mean the SM is going to go vertical but there has to be a big increase in volume. Good economic news is what catches the attention of the public and that is what we are finally getting. It doesn’t matter if it’s all BS so long as the media says otherwise.

  70. Goild

    One of the biggest trading mistakes is double guessing the market.
    Becoming stubborn and not executing stop loss leads to heavy losses.

    We will see how much heat I can stand with 300 UVXY shares.

  71. Christian

    ERX — Confusing times. OIL is getting late in its cycle and could be in the process of printing a Daily Cycle High right around Resistance but ERX continues to dazzle this morning and paints a very different picture.

    Gary, any thoughts on the disparity? I think I already know the answer but would like your perspective 🙂

    1. Gary Post author

      The energy stocks have disconnected from oil. I’ve taken profits on our energy stocks and I’m waiting for a DCL. At that point I will just trade OILU or USO from here on.

  73. Goild

    Don,

    The rational is that if there are bad news in the SM, UVXY can get back in a blink to $60. Then I will pocket $15,000.
    UVXY was at $160 in January. The SM is about 10% up.
    The rational is that a SM drop will take place, it is inevitable, at some point.
    I like first drops. Sometimes there are exquisite.
    As the SM keeps rising, I will hedge my losses in UVXY with day trading.
    And I might start increasing my position in UVXY.
    This could be a great trade.

    What do you think?

    1. Don

      Goild, I don’t understand why you would risk your cash playing UVXY that would require that you time a correction perfectly when you were playing 10 or 20 thousand JNUG and making money on a daily basis. Were you getting bored with the endless free money you were making?

  74. Herman

    BTW, Gary, great calls on gold for a long time. You are getting better and better; I learn a lot here.

  77. Goild

    I made a trading mistake and thought I had 300 UVXY shares when I only had 100.
    So I just added 200 shares. The mistake cost me like $50.

    1. vin

      Goild, I hope that doesn’t happen. SM going down after the fed info. will be a negative signal for the SM in general, one of the very few in last couple of weeks or so.

      I feel that the market will close higher today, and could very well be significantly higher.

      GL

    1. Nada

      VIX looks interesting Goild. 4h /ES candle is ugly, but I will get my mouth washed out with soap for saying anything further. GL with your UVXY trade.

  82. Goild

    Don,

    I am still playing JNUG and my ANT work continues to pay.
    Was trying to do a swing trade with JNUG that led me to lose two weeks of hard ANT work.
    Like to work on the side on automatic money with a swing trade, and think that the UVXY can be really a great trade.
    It is good to hear the different opinions, as for my part I think the UVXY trade can have a much better return than the losses. Definitely much more than the 1:3 per the book ratio.

  84. Goild

    This shop trading approach is:

    1. ANT style with JNUG/JDST for the day trading account. This is working fine.
    2. Swing trades in the swing account, with occasional day trades.

    1. vin

      You could be right. Though don’t be surprised to see it at around 1200, if not below, sometime before the end of the year. If that happens I will be buy more gold.

    1. Nada

      No Spanky that is not possible. You have clearly stated that the entire PM sector is gong to hell in a handbasket and there is no walking back those 100+ posts on the subject 🙂

      1. Spanky

        This period reminds me *a lot* about the 2015 timeframe between July into the lows in January 2016. I mean, it is uncanny. That was one hellish period for both bulls and bears I suppose. A whipsaw mess for 6 months. I much prefer whipsaws to waterfalls though.

        Bulls were hanging onto dear life, and I imagine 99% of them ended up puking up their shares in January when the miners finally dropped below support anywhere from 20-50% in about 2 weeks. The rest is history as they say.

    1. Nada

      AT, you are about to hear that there has been no failed cycle, so the final ICL is not possible. I will remind everyone, one of Gary’s favorite lines;

      “Triangles distort cycles” 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        Even the baby bull completed a failed daily cycle before the ICL was finished.

        I think you are making a big mistake assuming this isn’t going to happen.

        1. Nada

          I with you on thinking this time is different Gary. I think the ICL is further out is all. Anyway, we have us an interesting day so far.

          1. Gary Post author

            It will be due in December. The intermediate cycle will be roughly 20 weeks long at that time. So while I do think we’re probably going to get a bounce somewhere in here this daily cycle is left translating.

      1. GMoney

        Just posing a question for the board. By the way, my topping call on Oct 28 is still correct (yes I know it is very early)

        1. JJHarmen

          Gmoney, did you not notice the all time highs made today? You have no idea if your October 28th call will prove to be correct. Better polish up that crystal ball a little more.

          1. Gary Post author

            These top calls will continue day after day all the way up until finally one day someone will get it right and they will proclaim they called the top. In the meantime they will miss the entire rally. The vertical phase of a bubble is one of those rare periods where one can make a lot of money very quickly. Unfortunately, almost no one ever goes along for the ride. They are constantly trying to call the top.

  90. Robert

    Pretty nasty dip in SPY and QQQ. This is a very weak daily cycle on the S&P. Maybe it left translates and then a real drop occurs

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m showing the S&P is positive for the day??

      The cycle is only five days old and the tech sector had a monster move off of that cycle bottom. So I’m really not sure what you mean by very weak daily cycle.

        1. vin

          Yes the downturn was fast. Let us see how it ends today. Real fun will start after the info. on fed meeting reaches the market.

  91. Spanky

    This period reminds me *a lot* about the 2015 timeframe between July into the lows in January 2016 (hell even the dates of major peaks and valleys lines up). I mean, it is uncanny. That was one hellish period for both bulls and bears I suppose. A whipsaw mess for 6 months. I much prefer whipsaws to waterfalls though.

    Bulls were hanging onto dear life, and I imagine 99% of them ended up puking up their shares in January when the miners finally dropped below support anywhere from 20-50% in about 2 weeks. The rest is history as they say.

  92. Gary Post author

    There aren’t going to be any surprises today. The Fed is going to stand pat but they’re going to reiterate that December is a target month for another rate hike.

      1. Gary Post author

        I didn’t realize what time it is, I’m out here in the middle of the Utah desert rockclimbing.

        But I’ve been saying the same thing all week.

  93. Lenapowich

    I think everyone who is long the miners is expecting another rug pull by the end of the day. Not me, I think we are going to get a decent rally for a change.

  94. Robert

    Its hard to say. The SPY is slightly positive but so far the rally is rather tame. Gold is looking like its time to drop much lower is running out and there may be a rally back to 1300

    1. Gary Post author

      Remember this is a second daily cycle, not a first. First daily cycles are the ones that usually blast off and gain 6% to 8% over the first 12 to 18 days.

      I think we are in a runaway move. And those tend to grind higher with measured corrections along the way. Cycles become erratic during runaway moves and aren’t very dependable. Corrections can occur at any time, or on any news event, but the trend just continues to grind up and up.

      Until the semi conductor index reaches that 1350 level institutions are going to keep buying on every dip.

  99. Lenapowich

    Looks like I am going to be wrong with yet another rug pull in progress. GDX now down on the day. The miners are really getting tiresome.

    1. Christian

      It’s not the Miners my darlin’.. It’s you trading AGAINST the prevalent trend that’s tiresome 🙂

      1. JJHarmen

        Christian, right now, I am holding GDXJ and down a little, but not actively trading. Tell me, sweety, what are you up on at the moment?

        2. Christian

          At the moment? DUST and ERX are holding up well and I’m making a killing in Tech stocks as well as the Dow — a position I started back in 2011 thanks to my friend Steve Sjuggerud.

          Sending kisses your way JJ 🙂

      2. Lenapowich

        Are you saying that the prevalent trend for the miners is down? I thought they were in a bull market?

        1. Gary Post author

          The intermediate trend is down and has been for over a month. Anyone can see that on a chart standing 20 feet away from their computer.

          The larger secular trend is bullish but the entire sector is caught in a basing pattern and has been all year. Again anyone can see this on a long-term chart standing 20 feet away from their computer.

          Institutional money is going into the stock market where it’s making easy profits. No serious institutional money is going into the metals sector right now and until it does we’re going to be stuck in this trading range. We also need the dollar to break down out of that megaphone topping pattern. And right now it’s still in a countertrend rally so it’s not ready to break down yet.

  100. Lenapowich

    With all the talk about how the economy is doing so well, why are the Central Banks so slow with raising interest rates? Hasn’t the stock market been soaring day after day? It doesn’t make sense to keep rates down unless maybe they know the numbers are a lie.

  101. Gary Post author

    We are seeing again today why I’m afraid to trade the bio techs. They have not been following the rest of the stock market higher out of the daily cycle low. Next year is an election year and the politicians will almost certainly beat on the sector to capture the gray vote.

  102. Gary Post author

    Folks, here’s a novel concept. If you ignored my warnings during the last intermediate cycle decline that bottomed in July and you lost money. And you’re ignoring my warnings again this time. And you ignored all of my other previous warnings when assets started to move down into intermediate degree declines.

    Maybe it’s time to do something different and try to make some money. Maybe you should finally listen to me when I signal an asset is in an intermediate degree correction. Get on the sidelines and wait for me to call the bottom before you start buying.

  103. JJHarmen

    Gary, I am one that is waiting for your signal before buying more miners but I am not selling my GDX either. I am not down much on it and I see no point in jumping out at this point.

    1. Christian

      Ultimately it all depends on your investment timeline JJ. Buying Miners at this juncture is not necessarily a bad thing; it just means you have to suffer a draw down or two as well as a potential bloodbath phase.. but something tells me your balls are made of steal which means you can handle anything the Market throws at you, Lol! Am I right?!

      🙂

    1. Nada

      Yeah Don, he will learn to quickly not to play with UVXY. These talks of it returning to 160 or 80 are ludicrous unless Kim Jon Un decides to lob a nuclear bottom off the coast of CA. Which may not be a bad thing 🙂

      In all fairness, Goild is keeping it small with 200/300 shares. When we had the worst start of the SM during the 7 year SM low, the profits churned from UVXY by some was mind boggling.

        1. Nada

          Damn Christian, thats it. I am out. I closed my position. That chart you posted changed my mind. Muhahahaha! NEVER!

          1. Gary Post author

            If you had April or May calls you would be fine. But you don’t have enough time on those December calls to recover as that’s right in the middle of when gold should make its ICL.

            You can’t buy shorter duration calls 10-12 weeks into an intermediate cycle. It’s simply too risky. The cycle is too mature.

            We learned that lesson the hard way last year when I tried to take a short term long trade late in the intermediate cycle and the cycle left translated.

            Week 16 is just way way too late to be long metals.

          2. Nada

            Dec options are not the ones I am worried about. I think I will be fine, but there is little doubt that I read the DCL wrong. I should have waited for a deeper retracement before longing.

            You know how it is with options, you have to catch a move with them. I risked around 5% of my account and I plan on adding if something I like. If not, then I will move on. I use futures to hedge, so I am not too worried about the loss of 5-10%.

    2. Spanky

      The gold and silver miners are currently printing ugly black or red reversal candles. the metals may go a bit higher, but they are coming right back down.

      1. KHT

        The miners are a leverage trade on the metals. Silver is a leverage trade on Gold. I don`t see the metals beng all that shook up over the miners, the USD or anything right now.

        1. Nada

          Meh, Spanky is super bear. You saw him posting bullish stuff this morning when he got
          a little scared. He saw gold drop after FOMC decision, so now he has returned to the safety of his bearish posts.

          I am not sure what happened to him, he used to be such a sweet kid. I think he got mixed up with the likes of Christian 🙂

        2. Spanky

          It’s possible the metals bottom before miners for sure. It happened in late 2015.

          But given Gary’c cycle analysis, the odds that silver’s October 6 low isn’t taken out in the next couple of months is close to zero. I really hope I am wrong as I am long silver miners.

  106. isavage

    Goild

    You remember we talked about UVXY a few times before. You are playing a dangerous game with it.

    After years of Volatility product experience my only and big advice is if you want to hold for the big pop up that will come one-day, you need to also cover by being long/short on the daily basis.

    Otherwise you will see the position get crushed to nothing!

    I’m also continuing the same Vol short/ long game as I have for years. If I had sold Vol and sat tight it would all have been amazing in these Central Bank controlled markets. So I have shifted my bias towards short Vol over the last year.

    As Bloomberg just reported today Vol just recorded it’s lowest monthly average in History!

  107. Jimsee

    had to sell 50% OF /gc puts – small profit – really small. holding remainder until expiration or a triple from here I expect.

  108. Goild

    isavage,

    Thanks for keeping an eye.
    OK sold the 300 UVXY shares and will wait for a better entry.
    Lost $62.
    Good to hear from you!

    1. Gary Post author

      This is necessary to generate the fuel to break out of the basing pattern.

      Sentiment has to move back down to excessively bearish levels. Right now it’s pretty much dead neutral. We are never going to get a strong trending move starting from a dead neutral sentiment level.

      At the seven-year cycle low sentiment was extremely depressed in the stock market. Look at the rally that produced.

      We don’t need multiyear cycle type sentiment but we do need to get yearly cycle low sentiment levels. That should occur in December, and that should drive gold out of this basing pattern.

    2. KHT

      Depressing ugly days are where rallies and trend reversals start, not from rosy happy uptrends.

      I am currently trading silver and I think we saw a major trend reversal in July for gold and silver. If silver is rejected at 17.5 I will consider that bearish and most likely sell or hedge my position.

      1. Spanky

        Yeah I know, but with the miners, they always go way lower than even your wildest dreams at lows, and we are a long ways off from that yet, especially the large cap gold miners.

  110. isavage

    Goild

    I respect your courage and conviction to play UVXY!

    I had to write you as you were writing just as I was thinking and saw that lead to major stress and losses to be long time to recover from.

    One week it will pay out handsomely, but I’m now wone over to the Central Banks are in 110% control argument.

    I believe they are trying to use the so called “wealth effect” to bail out not only the banks, but also next the unfunded entitlements pensions etc..

    If Garys calls for doubling indexes pays out this would go a long way to keep everyone solvent. Of course there will be hell to pay one-day!!

    Just we could be years away from that point!?!

  112. Don

    More new all time highs today for the DOW, S&P and the Nasdaq. The Russell 2000 did not achieve new highs but did come within a whisker of a new high and then sold down for the rest of the trading session. At the close, the Russell 2000 is right back to where it was on Sept 29.

    Breadth was not great with declining issues outnumbering advancing. By itself, that doesn’t mean much but something to take note of if the breadth continues to decline in the days and weeks ahead.

    With all the central bank colluding to keep the markets up, it has become impossible to make a guess as to when the bull market might end. It could be days, months or even years away. There may be no signs whatsoever that this record breaking bull market is close to the end except to say that the day I become bullish, the next bear market will be right around the corner.

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