52 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY-TIME TO CONVERT TO OLD TURKEY

    1. Gary Post author

      Why would you do that?

      LEAP’s have tons of time.

      I’m only expecting a short term pullback at 1350. The semi’s are going to break through that level and go much higher.

      Everyone is grossly underestimating how far this is going to go. Less than 1 in 10 and probably less than 1 in 100 are going to really catch this move. It’s the same as the baby bull. Everyone tried to trade it and they missed the move.

        1. Carl

          I am still worried about semiconductor hitting 1350 in mid-december while Nasdaq is below 7000…

          In the best case scenario, gold will hit the bottom at he same time that semi-conductor hit 1350. We would gain a short opportunity to gain money on gold before going back to the SM.

        2. ras

          Possibly. Earnings induced spikes always tend to give back some. No concern here. I have seen it many times. We can only take what the market is willing to give. I will not be surprised to see some short term volatility in SVXY and VIX over the next 6-8 days. Lonely walk by one index is always suspect in my book. If that does not happen, one has to take what one can get. We have got Nov, Dec and Jan 3rd week when earnings season begins. That is lots of time. Catching part of the move is ok by me.

          CVX may be the fly in the ointment for energy complex. SVXY may be the fly in the ointment for SM. I fully agree with you. Big money is made by catching a trending move and staying with it for several weeks.

    1. Carl

      I have seen hundred of hours of Claytrader’s paid video. They are really useful and none of this is a scam. Most of his free video are good advice, but they just says: Hey, you need education before trading. He never tell you to buy X stock, he just give you the education to create your own opinion. My experience is growing, but i have a lot to learn.

      This is why I Like Gary’s video. He complements my knowledge with his experience. Even if it is an approximation, I really appreciate that he’s actually giving number on price target rather than vague information. I have seen all investing.com analyzer and he is the only one i am following. He is not a god, he can be wrong, but he have valuable information that help me on my decisions. He is a little arrogant when he blast traders that did not follow his tips, but who cares… i am here to gain more money, not to have a new friend.

    1. Carl

      Almost all of his video are 2 minutes trade at the open. He is the basic foundation of my trading knowledge.

      Gary is offering his own paid service and i think that promoting someone else on his own blog would be disrespectful.

      2 minutes candle are just like daily candle. The technical are basically the same. You just need the experience and speed to trade them because you have 2 minutes to think with each candle rather than a day… I always watch multiple time frame chart before i make a decision. As a swing trader i watch hourly chart, daily chart and weekly chart. I have learn with Gary that Monthly chart(historic chart before 2000) can also be useful.

      1. Carl

        He probably have a few millions in his account now, but he started as most of us, looking at random forum on penny stock to get advice on his trade. With my knowledge( i have a lot to learn, but i am not a noob…), i found most of the comment insanely stupid. I call these idiots, “Food source”… For every dollar gain, someone is losing a dollar.

  1. Goild

    Carl,

    Do you have any comment on how Claytrader selects which stocks and how he decides to go long or short?
    That video can be highly misleading about what trading is. He probably has a very fast mind, and ten’s of thousands of trades on his back. Copying his trading style would be likely a big mistake. He appears to be gifted.

    1. Carl

      On his paid videos, he explain basic stuff. Candlestick analysis, Trend, Support/resistance, Trendline, Moving average, MACD, RSI, MFI, CMF, Pole/wedge/triangle pattern and Fibonnacci retracement. A few long/short strategy.

      I don’t know how he select his stock, he seems to search for gap up/down stock with lots of volume. You can only see one monitor on his video, but he have more screen with more information.

      I usually scan for stock on finviz.com. You can select specific information than pick the best stock. Warren buffet said something similar to my opinion: “The trick in investing is just to sit there and watch pitch after pitch go by and wait for the one right in your sweet spot. And if people are yelling, ‘Swing, you bum!,’ ignore them.”

    2. Nada

      I got news for you both and it’s going to be a shocker, so you might want to be sitting down. Dollar to donuts, he makes his money selling a service and not in the markets.

      1. Gary Post author

        I have no idea whether this guy actually makes any money day trading, but what I do know is that most retail traders, probably 90% or more, are gamblers. Gamblers are naturally attracted to these kind of sites where they can make a lot of trades every day. It satisfies their gambling addiction. This guy is marketing to those kind of people.

  2. Nada

    “Gary is offering his own paid service and i think that promoting someone else on his own blog would be disrespectful.”

    Are you guys freaking serious?? That’s exactly what you are doing! Non stop talk and links to a guy who runs his own subscription service. I get a mention, but it’s now across two different blog entries. Give it a rest!

    *jjharmen will now come out from underneath rock and ask if nada like anyone.

    1. Gary Post author

      I would never sell my position during a vertical market. I might take down my leverage when the semi conductor index hits 1350 but I would still be 100% invested only in an unleveraged ETF.

      If the market were to give us a larger pullback at that point then I would try to convert my unleveraged position back to leveraged at the bottom of the correction.

      Let me state again, I would never sell my position during a vertical market and risk getting left behind like I suspect so many did on Friday.

      1. vin

        Thank you Gary for being so open and frank. Highly appreciated. I don’t think it is possible to give more straightforward advice with respect to the market direction and action to be taken. I will follow you and hope that you are right. So far your advise has been excellent.

  3. Goild

    You may enjoy what Ari Kiev wrote about the concept of market capitulation.

    “Capitulation is one of the most psychologically driven events in the market. It is the result of the emotional buying or selling that creates price extremes at either high or low levels. Although capitulation is a complicated phenomenon that car occur for a variety of reasons…”

    ” A capitulation on the upside is a capitulation of the shorts. Otherwise known as a capitulation top. It happens when those who have been shorting a stock are being squeezed by the advancing price of the stock caused by frenzied buying and extreme optimism to levels that are no longer sustainable. The shorts are losing money as the price moves up, pushed up by buyers who have to own the stock and are willing to pay up for it and the fact that there may not be enough sellers around. Fearful of an ever increasing price, the sellers become so frightened that the elevation in prices will never cease that they panic and experience enormous pressure to cover their positions and buy back the stock. With the shortage of stock, the price goes even higher, reaching what is known as a blow-off top where the price goes way beyond expectation until the buyers become sellers of the stock.”

    1. JJHarmen

      Goild, I did enjoy Kiev’s description of capitulation. Thanks for passing that on. I wonder if that is what was going on with Amazon on Friday with shorts sellers covering in a panic ? A 13% one day rise in such an expensive and highly capitalized stock is something I have never witnessed before.

    1. ras

      Right, surf. But fly in the ointment is cvx. Until cvx also joins the party, it is just a bounce. Another thing that bothers me is the way SVXY is behaving. We have seen a minor crack and quick repair because of strength in nas. Very often, the crack becomes a deeper swoon before SM sets itself right and go on to make new highs.

  4. GMoney

    I know many on this board will attack me for what I am about to say – but I was dead on regarding the 2008/09 crash – My models are telling me that by December the market – especially the Nasdaq – will be substantially lower. I can’t give precise numbers yet because I’m still calculating them. But we are within 1 or 2% of the top and may have already seen the top. Ok, now you can attack and insult me – I am used to it after predicting the 08/09 top where I was not only insulted but my life was threatened.

    1. Gary Post author

      in 2008 we had a catalyst for a bear market in the bursting of the housing bubble followed by a massive spike in commodity inflation.

      So unless your models can provide us with a catalyst I’m going to bet a burrito you will be wrong.

      1. Gary Post author

        Invariably when people make a wrong call they just disappear from the site so they don’t have to live up to it. I reinstated pedestrian weeks ago but he’s made one wrong call after another for months now so I don’t expect him back anytime soon.

        1. Nada

          Gary,

          I don’t think ped left because he was wrong about something. I agree with you, a lot of people make predictions and then run away and hide when they are wrong. Now with ped, I think it was inappropriate to ban him so he is most likely not going to be back due to that reason.

    2. Nada

      I hope you are correct, with the topping numbers as I don’t subscribe to the numbers being projected here as well. However, a little dramatic with your lifebeing threatened for calling a 2008 top, lol.

    1. ziasDad

      I read that you can’t short bitcoin, you can only buy it or sell it if you own it. But you can’t sell it if you don’t own it.

      If this is correct, then the “short seller capitulation” doesn’t apply to bitcoin.

      1. ziasDad

        Looks like I’m wrong about not being able to short bitcoin. Apparently the a top traders at OKCasino (whatever that is) just got a $48 million margin call. He was short bitcoin.

        1. Americano

          Nah you can short. Not easy because Coinbase is avg 1.5 million customers signing up a month now.
          Also – no where in the media says this…..you get PAID to own /hold Bitcoin due to forks. This will be EPIC in 2018.
          Nice thing is you don’t have to sweat it – just watch the price.
          Fork payment has accounted for LITERALLY 60% of my principal investment stake in BTC this year. This will get very well known my guess is next spring.

  5. Gary Post author

    Do you remember me warning everyone over and over that the correct way to trade a market that’s in the declining phase of its intermediate cycle is to sell rallies, not try and catch a long trade?

    Out of all the people in the challenge only two managed to make any money at all from the long side during gold’s bounce in October (and one of those was an insignificant gain). Everyone else just whittled away some of their gains from the rally out of the July low, and many have severely cut into their profits.

    I’ve been doing this a long time, and I’m giving you tried and true advice. Advice that would guarantee you will have a lot more money in your portfolio at the end of your trading career if you would follow it. But most of you continue to ignore me. Most people think they can outsmart the market. In the long run, almost nobody ever does.

  6. Goild

    Gary,

    After some while of participating here and reading about your advice I can say the following,

    1. You have become a very competent trader and adviser.
    2. This year your judgment to when to trade is excellent.
    3. Your last big call about the direction of the SM market has turned to be so far quite excellent.
    4. In hindsight, for this year your SMT fee has been quite a bargain for those who have listened.
    5. The amount of work and passion you put here at SMT are quite amazing.
    6. Having direct communication with you 24/7 is awesome.
    7. Oh, of course not every thing is perfect, but the benefits here are superb.

    As a leader and in face of credibility, responsibility, and portfolio size, you just cannot do what the subs/posters would do. There are different trading goals and circumstances. Your trading necessarily needs to be quite sound.

    As per how people would do in trading and what people can do in the long term, same as with the market, nobody can tell.

    There are definitely talented traders around.

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