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next turn 11/5?
https://www.tradingview.com/x/yrmdO0Kt/
I was thinking November 1 on the FOMC meeting. But it would only be a counter trend bounce. It’s still way too early for a final daily cycle low and sentiment isn’t nearly bearish enough for a final ICL.
Gold is hanging up well. The charts in the video are about miners
Don’t make the mistake of remaining in denial. Gold is going to follow the miners and confirm a failed daily cycle as well. The longer one stays in denial the more money you will lose.
Not only that but Miners often lead the charge.
December is a big delivery month for both gold and silver.
A lot of spec longs need to be flushed before then.
The commercials short the miners knowing it is easy money theft while they dump a gazillion contracts in a minute to shake out the longs, over and over again.
That’s all you need to know.
No charts or cycle analysis, just plain old market rigging over and over again.
My current target for DUST
https://www.tradingview.com/x/vCr3P4i5/
Have the same target for GDX…https://www.tradingview.com/x/1waEMEON/
Some say that USD is going up as there is an inverse H&S daily candle formation.
Others say that USD is going down as there is a double top candle monthly formation.
Who is right?
Who are more powerful, the daily candles or the monthly candles?
Take you pick and trade accordingly.
Lol! I can always tell when Goild’s been hitting the bottle 🙂
Some predict the direction of gold and miners.
But both gold and miners are very capricious, like a beautiful 21 years woman.
If you think gold is diving, you may be wrong.
If you think gold is climbing you may be wrong.
Instead pay attention to price and follow it.
DAY TRADER RULE
One more drink to the health of Christian!
He is a competent trader!
AT
Are you standing the heat?
Relief is coming!
Have any Fed balance sheet reductions occurred yet?
Wasn’t QT supposed to start in October?
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/
Good trading today,
We shall see how trading develops today.
By the way I also have my losses. 1 1/2 week ago I posted a loss of -$7.8K.
So it is not all gain.
Beware of falling knifes.
I find it interesting that you often quote “beware of falling knives”, but it appears to be your main strategy. 90% of the time you appear to be fighting the intermediate and daily cycle trend with your trades.
VIX is on the move while markets are correcting – perfect timing with Oct. Thinking this might last at least up until the Fed meeting.
I suspect it will bottom before Friday and be headed back up by the FOMC meeting.
It looks like stocks are finally going to give us the long overdue DCL. During runaway moves DCL’s tend to be very mild. The NYMO is already getting oversold. Watch the RSI. If it can push to oversold levels that will be your buy spot.
soxl? WOW!
Gary,
The falling knifes….
It is a bad habit.
But I have been in so many that I have learned to make money out of them.
I have also lost a lot of money on them.
They are one of my trading problems.
Talking about the problem is a way to address it.
Yes, I guess getting into them has becoming a way.
How one reacts to them is what makes a difference.
Though it hard to make money going against the trend and profiting from small bounces.
But making money is hard, isn’t?
Imagine a 1% loss for the S&P in a single day. The headlines, the panic, the growling bears, Goild making a fortune on UVXY that he has yet to tell us that he bought ……
Guys,
The miners are at an extreme. I think this is a good opportunity to get in.
I have added 2K jnug shares for the day.
Remember a couple days ago I posted my daily sell signals tripped for the indices, ummmmm hmmmmm.
Clearly only a temporary top though as the daily cycle is extremely right translated and the intermediate cycle is still young.
I predict the pullback will bottom by Friday, Monday at the latest.
If the NDX can hold up while the rest of the market corrects there is a possibility it is forming a triangle continuation pattern.
JJ,
Another trading problem is not sitting quite.
I sold the 2.2K UVXY shares for a small gain.
LOL, love that beautiful RED candle on the SPX. Burn in hell bulls
Make no mistake, we are getting a buying opportunity and it may not be much of one as the McClellan oscillator is already near oversold levels.
We know Gary. Every time we get a red candle, you flood the blog with SM pumping 🙂
$tnx making dramatic move today…gold yawns…this could be huge – according to 2017 logic gold should be @july lows *now*.
failed bearish patterns are a potent sign imo – on hi alert for a surprise into / on NOV 2
Some little bitty goldbug took the opportunity this morning and backed up the truck in gold;
https://gyazo.com/7063d5db6b985d529656f57a5e232b5f
That little volume spike there, represents 2 billon dollars with of GC future contracts. Muhahahahaha!
*worth
Thanks for pointing that out Nada. I haven’t been paying attention the gold market lately. It looks like someone is very bullish on gold . Maybe a central bank….LOL.
We have seen these kind of rapid sell offs a hundred times and they have all been buying opportunities.
if gold holds above Oct6 lows against the irate/currency complex indicators we would have the 2nd massive divergence in 2 years – gold outperforming during bearish trends. HYG not liking this turn of events fwiw.
topped up full position in mux today – wish me luck 🙂
Jimsee,
Been buying MUX every time under 2 bills. This is money in the bank if you have a moderate investment horizon.
nice! rob keeps talking sp500 – lol – not sure why he doesn’t give that up until wall street gets behind it. if he has a clue there that’s a 10 bagger from a ~no-default risk stock – hard to find.
Well no matter if the move is done or not in the currencies – the absolute pounding gold has taken with yields, USDJPY and the dixie gains is amazing that its not at 1200/oz.
As JJ pointed out, for the SM this has always been a buying opportunity. I am just laughing because it seems to have gotten away from them a bit.
HYG – credit leads, equities follow. I am glad someone else watch HYG. Not sure if you paid attention, but last week they were hitting the exits with some pretty big SOS numbers showing up. I am just as skeptical as anyone else that this is something other than a buying opportunity.
The HYG is without a doubt, the smartest guy in the room.
No matter how long it lasts;
https://gyazo.com/87137d912eb693802dd7846732bc4037
That could be it folks. Rally time. Time to kick the bears in the teeth (if they have any left from previous beatings).
there are no spx bears to speak of – yawn – scared leveraged bulls selling in face of 10yr action probably account for this micro-bear.
Now I have 6K JNUG shares.
This is quite an extreme with JNUG at $15.8
I keep buying…its going up from here
Today’s advance decline ratio is pretty ugly. More importantly, over 400 stocks have dropped below their 200 MA since Oct 20. Maybe this sell off will get more serious. We shall see.
https://preciousmetalsforecast.com/page/2/
Anyone selling their JDST/DUST here? I may.
Pain in JNUG land. Trust me I know the feeling and I’m sorry for anyone on that ship. I rode JDST down from 63ish to the low 40s. Now just breaking even when I should be enjoying an almost 50% gain. So it goes. Maybe a temporary bounce in JNUG soon? Gonna hold on until I make some decent profit in JDST.
Oct 26 CHF cycle lo due – often leads gold at major turns fwiw.
Crude Oil going to roll over into a DCL here?
Well the dip buyers got thrown out with the baby and the bath water this morning. About time they got taught a lesson.
Oops! Not good. I own tqq, labu, soxl and tna!
So far I was hoping to do well, now I have started to pray that my financial Guru Gary is right.
Nada -HYG not liking the 10yr action is *very bad* right? danger will robinson.
The power of cycles is evident to me here…Failure of Oct20 (gold) to take out Oct 6 lo alerted a listener to be ready/flexible mentally. The 10yr/HYG action is 100% correlated imo. Gold acts like a leading currency at sig turns many many times.
Got lunch money for two days.
Left on the table
2K JNUG shares
1K NUGT shares
1500 GDX
wow… this is impressive.
You rode down jnug for the last 2 weeks from ~20.00 to 15.80, last 1 week from ~18.00 to 15.80 or last 2 days from ~16.50 to 15.80. And the biggest jump today I can see on the chart was from 15.80 to 16.00. And you managed to do lunch money for 2 days?
Not sure how you can bend physics or better nullify it, but you seem to be a very miraculous person. You should become treasury secretary, I think you could really solve all the problems.
Someone asked this fine gentleman about the SM bulls;
https://youtu.be/mCjBspxuUmU
Sold 1K JNUG shares.
There might be more down side.
Goild, You are not only so smart but also such a lucky person. You ask and you are given. You got the price of jnug down to 16 where you intended to load up. Hope you have done so. How much did you buy 100k shares or 200k shares?
Keep it up!
wow XIV just got smashed and the S&P is only down less than 1%.
Dude – I think oil should be turning down soon – I’ll be shorting once I get some more confirmations.
Gary! I got cleaned in one day and you are talking of 3-4 more days.
In one day I have lost all the profit I made on your advise so far plus some more because I did not want to be the 99% who did not listen to you.
OOOOPS!
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake, 20,000 isn’t out of the question we get to the really nutty part of the bubble.
Stocks are just having a completely normal, and I would add very mild daily cycle correction. Once it’s over, the NASDAQ will be heading back towards 10,000.
Loaded the IK JNUG shares again at $15.87
Come on Goild! Loaded up on 1k? You trade 21k like nothing. Loading in your case is quarter million shares. I was hoping you did it because it has reached the price you asked for. Amen! I was so happy that your wish got fulfilled.
In fact 16 was also my buying target. But, since to-day is not a very good day for me, I will wait and see.
added a few more JNUG, filled at 15.80, I’ll go back to green only when JNUG above 17 … not my best trade so far 🙁
GOLD BULLS losing sight of the big picture — again :/
Well, at least it’s entertaining to watch…
Dollar bulls hanging on to hopium vs the big picture – again :/
See how arrogant that sounds? This is why a lot think you and Gary are the same persons, lol.
Not me mind you, because Nada loves you both 🙂
That sounds quite illogical. Are you implying that those who think they are the same person can love him? Actually they have to love only one person instead of two.
I agree with you that they are two different people. I not only love them both and you.
Pray tell me what is going to happen to my leveraged SM positions? Gary NOW thinks that we have another 3-4 such negative days? That is not good.
What do your reading cards tell you? An honest opinion will be appreciated.
Please pardon my infinite typos. In future I will be more careful …… never knew how to type ….
@VIn
It obviously appears they are trying to get a low in for the day and I expected them to try and get USDJPY off the ground to support the markets. There is aggressive money being spent in VIX options as a hedge. IF this is a hunt for a DCL, then yeah Gary’s time-frame sounds logical.
We have ECB on Thur, GDP on Friday and Trumps FED pick can come at anytime. Lot of landmines out there, but I would be amazed if the SM does not bounce back.
Thank you Nada. It rhymes.
Nada — Take everything that I say with a grain of salt. It’s meant to poke fun a little or else this blog would be a bit drab 🙂
That aside.. The point that I’m trying to make has two legs to stand on.
No worries. I enjoy the rips here and there. I am playing with you in regards to dollar too. I can obviously see the pattern and it has a good chance of playing out.
All jokes a side this morning.. The markets have a ticking time bomb in play. Trump’s FED chairperson decision can make the dollar implode or explode. I am sure the SM will rally on any pick.
Thanks Nada
While yen could rally to the 50 dma, it is a wonderful short there. Heck of $xjy makes it over the 20 dma I will be mildly surprised. Total POS. We would need a miracle announcement out of the BoJ to stop this trainwreck–not going to happen.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91212365723&a=552674812&listNum=1
Today, the miners are screaming more pain to come eventually. That being said, some of my silver miners are at extremes in terms of daily RSI, so I expect some sort of bounce/weak consolidation here. It could even last for a few days. A tag of the 50 dma will be the trigger for a 4-5 week cascade down.
“Dollar bulls hanging on to hopium vs the big picture – again :/” Nada
How the heck so?? The buck is in an UPTREND with bullish momentum and very close to breaking the neckline of an inverse H&S.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/aYbGLBeH/
What am I missing Nada?
Lol! Just read your last ‘reply’. All good.. Sarcasm always gets lost in translation. You know how it is!
Jokes aside. Are you day-trading Gold? Seems kinda risky.. Ballsy but risky 🙂
It is not easy to figure out what you are missing. Can you tell us what is it? It does not add up, for sure it is not your typing skill. LOL!
Vin — Where are you from and why all the typos? Haha 🙂
I am from nowhere. Obviously am not as bright as you are. So, I am not certainly from your neighborhood.
I will certainly work on my English, grammar and typing of-course.
I applied for typing positions many a time but was rejected every time. Are you looking for one?
Vin from nowhere — ok
ok what? You pretend as if you understood. LOL!
I asked where you were from. You said nowhere. I said ok.
But, do you know where nowhere is?
The Dow will probably recover all of its losses by EOD.
Lol, I can agree with that one! SPX already has a nice tail on it, lets see if they can keep it going into close.
Thank you Spanky. You made my day irrespective whether it happens are not.
Sold my JDST here at 62.50. Do not want to give this profit back. I still think gold has more downside though but may bounce before.
Good call — Metals are getting killed.
Did you know that metals cannot be killed?
You should change this mentality of killing and getting killed. The world have suffered tremendously because of such thinking. But, I guess behaviors of certain humans is not changeable under ordinary circumstances.
oops typo again ….The world HAS
oops more typos …. behavior and not behaviors ….
I need to take a course on typing
oops … in typing and not “on” typing ….. one of these days I will learn how to type
Vin, give the babble talk a rest.
when is next FOMC?
“Give a Man a Fish, and You Feed Him for a Day. Teach a Man To Fish, and You Feed Him for a Lifetime. ”
http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html
I think it is short sighted to think everything has changed suddenly concerning these intermediate cycles and every time gold has any inkling or a green candle or the S&P 500 has a down day. There is no definite signal on these currently so just sit tight. Profits are unable to run if every head fake and counter move affects you decision-making process. This is what the SM is counting on. Thanks Gary for remaining even keel.
“triangles distort cycles”
Still some unfinished business on the downside after a bit of bounce?
Vin,
By the way, how in the world could you have possibly lost money? I told you to buy way back in August, and again at the bottom in September.
Gary, Thanks for your response. First of all, by the end of the day I wasn’t negative.
Second, though I follow you and I respect you and your advise, I don’t always act right away when you advise. And, sometimes I don’t act at all. So, it is quite possible that there is some discrepancy there. I fully understand that if I invest in any 3X it is not going to be always easy, in particular because I don’t day trade. But, under present conditions if your predictions happen to pass rewards are phenomenal, hence the gamble.
Third, in my calculations I included the losses in labu and I am fully aware that you have changed your opinion on bios. Yet I plan to keep it.
Fourth, I don’t trade very often so the numbers are transitory till I sell. Hopefully I will sell at much higher levels. So far I haven’t sold anything.
Thanks again for your concern. Btw I don’t question your predictions (not yet anyway) since what has happened so far has only earned my respect for your capabilities. The message was to point out that down trend was steep to undo profits. I hope we don’t have 3 more days like this.
Let me say this again in case you missed it before. The time to buy is when you are scared. That’s when I buy in the SMT portfolios, at cycle bottoms. If you wait till your emotions give you the all clear the odds are good you are buying near a short-term top. That means you will have to weather a drawdown on your position.
I think you need to learn how to pull the trigger at bottoms rather than than at short-term tops. That’s what I try to teach people to do in my newsletter.
We have a huge cushion on our positions and aren’t even close to losing money on this trade.
Thank you, Sir. I will keep that in mind in future. At present I don’t plan to add to my SM gambling positions. Though I will buy more golds, particularly jnug and gdxj, in near future.
You will be doing the exact opposite of what you should be doing.
Gold is in the declining phase of it’s intermediate cycle.
Stocks are in the advancing phase of their intermediate cycle.
You should sell rallies in gold.
You should buy dips in the stock market.
Gary your advise is highly appreciated and I will take it into consideration before if I make a trade. Though I don’t plan to take any more risky position in SM at this point. I am satisfied with what I have. And, if you are proven to be right 10-20k nasdaq I will do well.
Actually there will be very little risk. Once the S&P forms a swing you immediately buy or add to your position and then place a stop right below the cycle low, which if you buy correctly won’t be very far away.
This is what I mean by buying when you’re scared. Emotionally it’s tough to do, but logically it is the correct way to trade. You limit your risk. You are buying at a bottom with a close stop as opposed to buying after the move has already happened and then having to weather a drawdown during a correction.
Yes. Stop loss? I rarely do it. May be I should start doing it. I usually I prefer to write call options instead, specially on 3X. They are very profitable but then there is a risk of missing a steep rise in a short period.
Gary, your calls on the dollar have been worse than a coin flip so in all fairness I think this chart needs to be posted. We are currently right at resistance in the $USD if you compare this to previous 8yr cycle tops & where we are currently in the cycle. So, as I posted before, the 20 week ema is resistance.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p43479251689&a=552722496&listNum=1
While I think we all recognize that the currency cycles have stretched way beyond anything that was considered “normal” in the past, I still think an ICL needs at least one failed daily cycle. The yen is in the process of delivering a failed daily cycle. The euro hasn’t followed yet, but I think it will. That means the dollar probably still has more upside, and I would assume it will not find a final intermediate top until sometime around the December FOMC meeting where the Fed will raise rates again. That being said the dip into the right shoulder did not break the cycle up trend line, so it’s still possible the dollar could drop, maybe after next week’s FOMC meeting into a more recognizable daily cycle low before the next run higher begins.
Desert,
Your chart shows a crossover of MACD which suggests a rally and to make a shoulder you will usually get two or possibly more failed rallies before the ultimate right side shoulder failure, just like there were two failed corrections on the left side before the head formed. That would seem to support Gary’s position of a rally here to help form that shoulder. He said that that Dollar would eventually rollover into a bear market so I am not unsure what you point is?
Don, I have a silver chart that has been amazing over the last 1 1/2 years. I don’t want to post it on the blog but if you post an email I will send it your way………….take care.
Should not forget/miss having a plan.
This is good trading.
I will be on board when the miners rocket decides to take off.
I switched some JNUG shares for NUGT shares.
Holdings are:
IK JNUG shares
1.5K NUGT shares
1.5K GDX shares.
Or about $70K in 3X funds.
I expect to at least double the money.
There might be more pain…
OK I will hedge with day trading.
But I will be on board on the rooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooocket.
Goild, I am disappointed that you have not loaded up on jnug even when it reached your target price of 16. What are your views of jnug at 8 before the end of this year? That I think will an excellent entry point. No?
GOLD UPDATE — A bullish wedge is taking shape but as yet to be validated. We’re likely to get a ‘breakout’ tomorrow but beware bulls.. it could turn out to be another head fake :/
https://www.tradingview.com/x/YMyctlWx/
Ps: Will be picking up more DUST shares tomorrow if we get a significant pull-back.
Christian,
Thanks for the chart.
Yes indeed, it would be interesting to watch how it will develop.
Change price on chart to 1348, hand nada burrito and gold can kick rocks.
LMAO 🙂
Nada.. when you hand over that burrito, I’m gonna make sweet sexy LOVE to it right in front of you 🙂
Vin,
I thought you had mentioned that JNUG was going to hit $16. Yes, you did a few days ago.
You were quite right!
As for my part, JNUG at $16 has cost me. Though I hedged with day trading.
It is not easy to put on the table 21K JNUG shares.
It happens little by little because there is no option but to keep adding with the hope that there will be a reverse and one will be positive. Usually it works. But when it does not work the losses are hefty.
The dammed manipulators, likely are planning to have JNUG at about $8 bucks indeed.
That may have NUGT at $20.
Who knows.
The manipulators may decide that is time to reverse the balance…
Who knows.
What is certain is that the miners will see much better days.
My views for JNUG this year is that it might dive a bit more. Perhaps $14 bucks.
The fresh and new season for PM and miners is about to start.
The think that worries me is that interest rates will continue climbing, at least a bit.
The USD is a threat. But the FED owns so much money that interest rates will stay low.
Higher USD is bad for the US economy and so it is likely it will stay anchored.
We are a country of services, manufacturing is not the thing, AMAZON GOOGLE FACEBOOK are the big companies. This does not smell too well.
We shall see!
You are right. I had planned to buy jnug at 16. But, today was a bad day for me. I own tna, labu, soxl and tqq. So, I did not have the courage to buy any more 3X. Though at some stage I will buy gdxj and jnug. I have watched you trading and you seem to be a successful trader, so I wonder when will you load up on jnug? I agree with you that probably jnug will not go down to 8 before the end of the year.
Gold and golds could go up from here, yet I feel that I will get an opportunity to buy jnug and gdxj at a better discount. jnug 14? Probably not. But jnug at 12 would be interesting for me. Below 10 will certainly be exciting. Some of the small caps are selling quite cheap by historical standards. Since most of them don’t have earnings it is difficult to evaluate them. Specially when one has to depend on the company reports for their in-ground assets and their estimates of extraction cost.
How many times have we heard someone state they will buy at such and such a price?
It’s easy to make that statement when price is higher, but if it gets down to ones target I guarantee it’s not going to be easy to pull the trigger. Why? Because price can always go lower and in the middle of a bloodbath phase it’s going to look like it’s going lower.
Really what someone is saying when that make that kind of statement is that they think $$$ is going to be the bottom. But when price reaches $$$ it will no longer look like that will be the bottom. Instead one’s emotions will be conjuring up all kinds of end of the world scenario’s.
If JNUG were to get to $14 then it’s going to look like it’s going to $10. If it gets to $10 it’s going to look like it’s going to $8. You see where I’m going with this? Bottoms never look like bottoms until many weeks later. So the vast majority can’t pull the trigger.
You need different tools to increase your odds of buying close to the real bottom. You need an understanding of cycles and you absolutely need a subscription to sentimentrader.
jyoung3759,
I posted another chart to show how flawed your analysis is. Look at the vertical lines that I added to the chart. Look everyone, I am not saying that its not possible for the dollar to go 97 where the short term H&S pattern is suggesting. What I am saying is that this pattern is no sure thing………far from it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$USD&p=W&st=1980-01-01&en=today&id=p43479251689&a=552722496&listNum=1
P.S., I added the blue arrows to the RSI to show you the level the RSI usually turns back down.
It seems like you are trying to rationalize reasons for why gold won’t produce an ICL this time.
Even during the baby bull gold had an ICL which included a failed daily cycle.
Gold isn’t in the baby bull phase anymore. It’s in the adolescent phase. To think that gold won’t have ICL’s during the adolescent phase of a bull market seems like a stretch to me.
Like I said before, I think this breakout is the real deal. 1258 gold is going to hold imo.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&yr=8&mn=0&dy=0&id=p93323071262&a=550390300&listNum=1
Your “thinking” is too LINEAR.
The buck is currently in an uptrend in the interim. Open your eyes..!
I’ll keep them open just for you Christian & then when I see it I’ll believe it…….LOL
Desert,
I would use the term inaccurate rather than faulty and all of us can find the things we want to see for our analysis. First my two swing targets for the dollar is a bit more conservative at 94.89/95.96 for a more major swing preceding this rally and coming out of the DCL and the second set of targets based on previous daily correction of this rally even more conservative target for wave 5 @ 94.51/95.03 Not looking at 97.00 at alI as think that is a bit high and your chart my back that up but I do think near 95 possible for a peak on this right shoulder that will fail. Chart formation target does suggest a 97.10 price target . Mondays close was above the neckline but barely so I would still not consider this a confirmed pattern yet. Mario Draghi will let us know that outcome as well as influence by who Trump appoints for Fed Chair. Wo is right matters to nothing because I am making money by buying near the bottom and if i see failures well I sell and move on. So far what I see has worked and if what you see is true and we fail here then I’m out with a smaller profit and looking for anew opportunity. Thank s for the feedback and i see no fault in your analysis. It may turn out to be inaccurate but so may mine. I would be readu to follow the Dollar South at that time.
I think we are in the 3yr cycle bounce that could last another month or so. Your swing targets seem reasonable to me. Poor choice of words on my part.
Dollar up, oil/commodities down.
Peter Brandt is somebody I have some faith in with a couple of simple charts and calls:
https://www.peterlbrandt.com/blog/
Thanks. Both of them are useful.
Peter Brandt Bitcoin Holder since $400.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/922255056287625216
Vin,
The think is not to put too much money in the market to the point one is uncomfortable.
Just grab lots of little bites.
Or pyramid.
As Gary pointed out: Never put in your full stance.
You are right. When you are risking more money than you can handle, you will be under a lot of stress and you will commit more mistake. Because of the huge variation in your portfolio in a small amount of time, you might lose the sight of the big picture.
Never forget that you don’t have to sell all your position. Selling half to grab some profit at resistance point avoid you to lose your gain if the trend change and you still have half of your money if it keep up on the chosen direction.The same happen when you try to avoid loss. By selling half you will lose less money if the the market is against you but you will also not lose everything if the tide change in your favor.
Yes, putting too much money impairs good judgement.
Then human emotions take charge, one makes a mistake, then becomes stubborn, then gets into hopium, then incurs into a huge loss. Then the trading psychology gets hurt and recovering becomes very tough.
And it is both ways, while losing and while winning.
Trading is not easy.
There is no holy grail for the average joe.
Have to pay dues.
It is likely that the manipulators decided to hold the miners to have a gap up tomorrow morning.
Troy
October 25, 2017 at 11:11 am
“Sold my JDST here at 62.50. Do not want to give this profit back. I still think gold has more downside though but may bounce before”
Do you mind commenting what % of your portfolio you had on JDST?
What was your thought process to hang on the shares and resist the temptation to sell?
He didn’t hang onto his shares Goild; he sold them @62.50.
Gold has drop gary mentioned I dont see dropping so far but rather to $ 1236. According to key set of MA and technical resistances when you look it is clear. Having looked at where the main MA converge that indicate recent tops and bottoms for cycle resistance it seems clear it will drop to meet the 2011 down trend line at $1236 to find its bottom as from present point there is a clear gap on key MA’s. Just incredible to see that its also the 0.786Fib . My money is a drop to this price out of technical and MA
https://invst.ly/5ky6z
https://www.tradingview.com/x/1vPHMgvi/
I don’t want to speculate on a final target but I can tell you gold isn’t likely to bottom until late November or early December. If we hit your target before that then I would suggest you probably need a lower target.
LOL
I think that the bust of the bitcoin bubble would help gold and miners a lot.
With SM bubble and bitcoin bubble both in full throttle I doubt there will be money to put into gold/miners.
(lithium stocks are also experience another bubble)
Gary thinks that gold/miners are in a new bull market,but we need a strong UP move soon in order to confirm this theory,an UP move that will break 1400 with convinction.
Yellen is out! When that news hit, huge contracts dumps on ES. Thank God, maybe we can get rid of these doves.
The market has known since Trump got elected that Yellen would be replaced. So no surprise there. And Yellen has been raising rates which doesn’t seem that dovish to me.
Nonsense. She is a super dove. What she hikes three times in 10 years?
Do you realize the volume created on yellen news caused more volume in S&P 500 futures than ANY FOMC 2pm news?
Now tell me again the market was expecting.
I’ll say it again, the market has known since the inauguration the trumpet was going to replace Yellen. The futures have gone nowhere. Clearly there was no surprise.
Clearly there was. But since you didn’t say it, then it didn’t happen.
Going to be a pipe dream to hit that 10k NQ and 40k DOW. But that kinda stuff sells hopium.
10,000 is going to be a piece of cake. We’re already a quarter of the way there.
That never had anything to do with who is going to be Fed president or how quickly they raise interest rates. That was set in stone from the minute QE1 began and QE2 3 and 4 just added more insurance.
You already owe Christian a burrito do you want to owe me one too?
Hey Gary, you want to make it personal I see 🙂 if we listened to you back in 2014, when you said gold was going to 20,000 an oz, where would be now? Same thing with these SM calls that will never come to fruition.
Also I don’t owe Christian anything, there is no failed cycle in gold.
I can tell you exactly where you would be.
The metal portfolio is +186%.
The stock portfolio is +123%.
If I marked them to market they would be even higher.
And by the way I’ve never said gold was going to $20,000 an ounce. I believe that was Avi Gilbert. I think gold might go to $10,000 an ounce though but it’s still four or five years into the future.
You know I could say something aboit those portfolios, but nada going to be sweet today.
About all you can say is that I’m one of the very few (probably 1% or less) that have the balls to actually make real-time calls and stick my neck out. My losses are there for everyone to see and focus on, and my wins are there in plain sight to be ignored by most. It still doesn’t change the fact that the metals and stock portfolio continue to just grind higher.
Check in!
Let us trade well.
JNUG is quite resilient.
Have 5K more shares at $15.60
Why are you fighting the trend?
Same comment as yesterday.
It is way to extreme. on board with 6K JNUG shares more.
Gary,
I might be fighting the macro trend.
But today we are an extreme, I can breath it, and the confidence I had on long JNUG was very high.
Sold 5000 JNUG shares and pocketed $900.