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Both mining indexes and many miners on the SoS list today. I have to wonder if the banksters just baited the hook the last two days and we’re about to see another fleecing.
I’m still not convinced the dollar has completed its daily cycle rally, or the euro its daily cycle decline.
We saw something similar on Friday:
10/6/17 GDX -170.59
10/6/17 GLD -45.58
and still rallied today. But yeah you never know, futures could be down 20 pts in the morning in /GC ๐
I actually think you’re being a bit paranoid on this one Gary ๐
We’re due for a small ‘intraday’ correction in Miners and Precious Metals and we’re likely gonna see it over the next couple of days but make no mistake sugar bunz — Gold is headed up to $1300 to sucker in gullible Bulls first…
It’s pretty easy to spot swing lows and highs. Do know Gary what the winning % is on these trades, that is if you only hold 2 to 5 days with a stop below the previous day’s close? Would be interesting to know.
The problem nowadays is that the banksters will often manufacture 1-3 false swings before the cycle bottoms so it’s not as easy to catch the bottom as it used to be.
Do you think QQQ will follow the same pattern as SPY. Compared to SPY it just broke out of the 6000 ish price. QQQ is overbought but not as much as SPY. SPY had 5 days up after the break out and i think that QQQ will go up now with a pullback later. I want to buy a few 27th october Call of TQQQ. I’m not sure if i should buy now or wait a few days in hope of a better entry point.
Don’t ever buy options on the triple leveraged funds. It’s a suckers bet. The liquidity is too thin, the spreads are too wide and the extra volatility is already priced in.
Thank you for the tip. I did the math and TQQQ was slightly more profitable. Anyway… I will stick with QQQ to minimize the risk.
For qqq what are you looking at? Would December 150 be a good bet? Or, are you looking at a shorter period?
I have tqqq and I have written call options on it. It buys one one some safety while making a few quick bucks, but then there is a potential of missing big time specially if Gary is proven right.
Gary,
“You define the risk. Some traders in the challenge are swinging for the fences on every trade. Some are taking small bites.”
There is only ONE way to OBJECTIVELY define risk: By setting a stop loss before entering the trade. That way, you OBJECTIVELY determine how much you are willing to spend on any particular trade, before you cede that trade as a loss. Otherwise, it’s SUBJECTIVE, and therefore NOT definitive. Sure, position size is part of the equation — the equation whose outcome determines one’s stop loss.
At any rate, I will enter the contest as a data point — as a scientist, I’m always up for a little experimentation and observation. And we always need a “control group” — this will be my control group. After all, I do have an open mind: What if… the Gary trade is the best one? Maybe Gary is reaching his grand super cycle peak here. I’ll go along with the video and scale in over the next 1-2 days followed by 4-8 days, without overthinking the matter. Who knows? Maybe your system is more profitable on this occasion and will lead me to victory. And, of course, I can do that in entirely detached fashion — which is actually the best approach to trading. In that regard, this becomes more than a control group for me: It becomes an alternate scenario. Again, my open mind welcomes that — how with it play out? What conclusions will be drawn? Who knows, but I am interested in finding out!
Now that that’s out of the way, on to the real issue:
We have had this discussion on MONDAY.
But I’m asking you why you felt the need to don the armor, the helmet, grab sword and javelin and spear and rush into combative mode on SUNDAY? Surely you knew there would be a backlash.
But why the attachment to attack and defend?
When one is constantly on attack and defend, it seems to prevent openness.
Attachment to endless heroic battle is a form of suffering.
Case in point: I made it clear on Thursday gold and GDX had NOT produced “daily” cycle low signals. No hindsight there. Specifically, I said GDX was likely in wave B of D — you’re calling this a “minor” daily cycle. Well, that’s often the nature of wave D, which I said was likely to be in progress last week and even as early as mid-September. Again, no hindsight.
The 100 week and 200 week SMA’s are not in play in a yearly cycle decline for gold. Sure, they might be visited, and due respects paid if so. Other indicators would provide more likely targets — and they may correspond to the 100 week SMA.
Bottom line is, these indicators are invisible to one who is in constant battle mode, fighting for a fixed viewpoint of the ever-changing world.
I thought of bringing these indicators up with you in early June, shining some light on the cycles-related portion of my work for you. But too much risk of having to don armor and helmet, and grab sword and spear and javelin. The battlefield is no place for such a discussion.
Jung learned a lot from Freud. But in the end, the latter just remained stuck in his ways, long before examination of the subject matter at hand had reached its end. It will never reach its end — that’s the beauty and the mystery of life.
I suppose that’s the reason for retirement: One tires of the beauty and the mystery of the journey. Can one retire before one’s bubble pops? The only two options seem to be either (1) toss aside the armor, the helmet, the sword, the spear, and the javelin and open the mind to the ever-changing nature of everything; or (2) retire after the stock market peaks, but before gold begins its next “multi-year” move down into its bear market low.
OKtoberfest?
Sell in May turned into a rally. The annual September swoon morphed into a rally. Nothing stops this unstoppable bull. . Everything turned on its ear. If all iseasonality is reversing Wonder if we will get our year end rally?
Au may see a short lived rejection at the 1279.5 resistance?
Oil to pivot down from this mornings high to continue the down trend?
I’m going to disagree with you on oil. That was a half cycle low and it’s not finished. Oil is on it’s way up to make another higher high before the daily cycle tops.
Look at the energy stocks. They’re telling you this isn’t the top.
Meant 1297.5 AU.
Since the euro has completed the DCL before it could give us a failed daily cycle we can expect this cycle to left translate. It looks to me like the euro is forming a head and shoulders top.
Is the USD/JPY rolling over now?
The yen still has to close below that intermediate trend line. This is just a counter trend move, the same as the euro and dollar. The larger intermediate trends still have further to go.
This is the rally that I’ve warned about that sucks gold bugs back in prematurely before the next leg down.
No one ever listens to me during this bounce and then they always end up getting caught when the final leg down begins and they panic and sell during the blood bath phase.
Another meaningless SOS for GDX & GDXJ. I decided to sell 1/2 my JNUG AH yesterday to play it safe. Oh well.
Unless these SOS’s are adding up because this cycle will be topping out shortly as Gary has been saying.
Everything green this morning. SM, PMs, Oil, Energy and Bitcoin too.
Wait till the end of day before making that call.
Oil should be at a critical point then, if it turns up here or makes one more swing down to the 48.50 support?
Good morning,
What kind of a day would it be today?
Good, flat, down for gold?
And just like that, new S&P highs. The corrections pullbacks are getting increasingly shallow.
Vertical phase. Have you not been paying attention?
Gary – DO u think CHF looks like a completed ICL? not a bad sign for gold if so.
This is a counter trend bounce just like I’ve been saying. If one is long the trick is to get out before the cycle tops and left translates.
thx gary.
Another day and another loss for the top pickers.
This will continue at least half way through the vertical phase. Human nature never changes.
every day is a good day to buy some mux here imo…below 3 is a steal.
Added 1 more tranche of DUST
New trade: Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92
Oct 6 SOLD 100% JNUG 19.20
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07
Sep 26 sold 50% DUST 24.16
Sep 25 buy 50% DUST 23.45
Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25
Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
Not sure why you’re posting trades that date all the way back to Jul 18th AT. Just post your REAL TIME entry and exit ON THE DAY please ๐
btw.. I’m interested in why you decided to buy DUST today @ 23.09. I think you might be early but perhaps close enough?
It’s easier to select all and copy/paste – current top new trade is always real time. This are my real trades and also sent them to Gary as challenge trades.
I am always a bit early, I find it very hard to catch the absolute top or bottom. Close enough is very good as long as I continue making profits.
Why adding DUST? I think the NK fluff will wear out, and Gold will resume the move down soon, perhaps later today or tomorrow.
Plan to get back in JNUG again when getting closer to 17-18, after selling DUST.
“Why adding DUST? I think the NK fluff will wear out, and Gold will resume the move down soon, perhaps later today or tomorrow.”
What NK fluff? Kim has been a very good boy lately. He did not launch on the 10th for NK Holiday.
I guess you didn’t see the weekend twitter. That’s fine
I sold all my GDX this morning at a very nice profit. I decided to heed Gary’s advice.
Said this last week.. Gary you have continuously stated that currencies were not your forte and you had given up on cycles due to CB manipulation. Why is it now you think you have a handle on them?
You seem very confident in your stance that gold is going to make a LT cycle, dollar not finished bouncing, euro not finished with DCL, and yen headed into YCL. I agree that there are signals that one should be paying attention to, but you seem to very overbearing with the bearish sentiment.
If gold breaks out of this triangle, its on like donkey kong;
https://gyazo.com/03ec69cb18fc8ac9fa3d33b47dbb1863
Yen is about to tag its declining 50 WMA. Can’t really see it rallying back to the 20 WMA here. The weekly bollingers are bending down now. The path of least resistance is down. I expect a downward spike/collapse any day now to meet up with the lower weekly bollinger band. The stock market should make another mini-moon shot on the drop.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XJY&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p64505029261&a=549488861&listNum=1
Spanky I am on to your reverse psychology ๐
Nah, although I see the yen spiking down, but I don’t think it will be easy breaking down too much on the initial down thrust as it has built up a bit of a base for the last year. A sharp downthrust could be the catalyst for a move in the opposite direction as well.
With that said.. the word of caution is appreciated. The potential H&S on the /6E is something to be aware of. I am more curious about why the confidence in the currencies calls..
Gold has been acting very strong relative to yen, FWIW, as have the miners.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD%3A%24XJY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p71141747483&a=549490158&listNum=1
indeed sir. interesting things going on here…’fundamentals’ electing a bullish stance here as well.
someone wants them some gold imo…enough to move the fundamental(ish) measures – CB buying/covering?
Gold COTs really haven’t come down as much as you would have expected given the price drop. Hard to say how this will play out, but I suppose one of the more constructive ways would be for gold to form a triangle consolidation with higher lows and lower highs for another month or two and the CoT commercial shorts worked off over that time. More likely, gold just get’s its teeth kicked in as we are so used to seeing.
You can’t put a lot of weight on the COTs. They are a useful guide, but certainly can not be used to pick tops or bottoms. Commercials are hedging machines, so you can’t always understand the nature of the position. Obviously something to make note of.
The thing is.. Its pretty easy to make a bearish call here. If you are wrong, no one is really going to care. You simply get to say that the currencies markets are being manipulated or stretched. If you are right, then you get all the accolades of looking like you knew exactly what was going on, when in reality it is a coin toss.
It’s possible gold makes a higher high and the drop into the subsequent ICL could burn off commercial shorts. Obviously, that is not what Gary envisions, and given where the yen is, I don’t envision it either. That being said I am still old turkey my miners.
Sold 350 GDXJ at 94.94. Keeping the core position. First intended to sell around 1298, but gold price starts to act a bit weird. Don’t trust it.
The monthly bollinger bands (20,2) for GDXJ are the narrowest they have ever been. Barring an epic spike up or down into month end, they are due to get even tighter by next month.
It’s true they could stay in a relatively narrow range for a long time, but that hasn’t really been the MO of GDXJ or really any of the miners, at least on the monthly chart. It’s usually straight up or straight down.
Unweighted commodity complex (GCC) looking decent on the weekly chart as of today. Obviously a lot can change between now and Friday close, but it’s hard to see gold and miners tanking if GCC is rising. It’s possible it just stays in a triangle as yen finishes getting whipped.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCC&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p08192908545&a=549494600&listNum=1
Getting closer;
https://gyazo.com/94ebe7f34ce7caa51da19b06dd901b60
BTW, the red hashed diagonal line is trendline from 2011.
Nada, that chart was easy to see, unlike some with the dark background.
The black & white chart set up is by far my favourite and your channel trendlines are on point ๐๐ป
Newmont’s daily bollinger bands are the tightest in 20+ years. I think that is pretty notable.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEM&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94156555382&a=549495229&listNum=1
Isn’t it smart to make a case for either way (as does you know who)? Then you always look like you are a winner.
SOLD USLV @12.60 for a hefty profit ๐
The 1 hour chart looks overextended and turning down.
TIME & PLACE and STRATEGY is how you make money on a countertrend move.
Very nice play Christian although you were a tad bit tardy in making your call.
Sorry โ I’m out having coffee and trading on my phone.
GS gold big picture: Gold to hace a tremendous drop:
http://www.kitco.com/news/2017-10-09/Gold-Price-To-Suffer-a-Tremendous-Drop-Says-Goldman-Sachs.html
Learned the hard way not to bet against these guys.
Yeah, they said gold was going down to $1,000 or lower. Never happened. Those guys are idiots, and anyone that listens to them are also idiots. ๐
A relative of mine, who happens to be an economist, works for GS; and he’s a total idiot. ๐
Right. They write an article like that because they love giving free advice away to everyone. BS, they write an article like that to acquire.
Just like they upgrade a stock and then tell their clients to sell into. Crooks.
Exactly! Right on!
Had made $1200 to lose them.
I am at -$4700 with 21K JNUG shares and it seems that I will not recover today.
Morning Goild. What is your average price? I am long JNUG in contest from 17.90.
I think I will come even around JNUG $19.80.
I am curious Goild.. The account balance from the other day was listed as 166k? You are trading a 3x leverage fund at fidelity that requires a 75% exchange requirement.
With that said, 21k shares * 19.80 = 414,800. A balance of 166k / .75 would make roughly 221k available on margin. You seem to be quite a bit over, how exactly is that?
Walmart announces a stock buy back of 20 billion over two years. If they have that kind of money to flush down the toilet, why don’t they lower their prices for the made on China junk and offer some real competition to Amazon? The problem with old and established companies is that the shareholders won’t allow them to operate on the razor thin margins that is Amazon’s trademark way of doing business.
I read a report today that their ecommerce business experienced more growth than amazon in the 4th quarter.
a nice gap up to 1305 or so tomorrow in gold would be a sweet short (buy puts) setup – decision time and place nearby – gap up action allows partial profit opportunity,etc…Goldman would love to manufacture this IMO…get the short term emotions fired up, fade the buy-side volume….
You are still observing the cyclic work, no? I believe you listed the 12th as a bend significance to reach 1320. We still got some time Jimsee ๐
The bears may be right, but man everyone it seems has a negative outlook on gold. Maybe the invasion of NK has been stopped since NK hackers stole the plans ๐
Short term sentiment on GLD is neutral at 65% bulls.
Intermediate sentiment on gold is neutral at 47% bulls.
I forgot to look, but maybe the sentiment from you made me think as much ๐
https://gyazo.com/2b7f4d623a6e9140c6012ea77a47499e
yah oct 12 is the day – but price is always negotiable ๐ a gap and fade the day before would be good enough to get me to start laying in some puts…London time (my bad I sleep,lol) would be a logical target for the highs unless the hedge funds are running amuck in NY.
Nada,
Once the day trading account is in, then the swing account comes to help.
Ah I see Goild, you are a slippery one ๐ I saw some GDXJ on BOW but it looks to have fell off. I still see gold filling the gap at 1348ish (spot reference), but I think I am the only one ๐
At $19.77 I come even for the day.
I wonder about leaving the JNUG shares on the table?
I wonder how you guys would manage them?
You will be fine then.
Huge divergence between miners and metal today telling you all you need to know about direction in the near future. Put a fork in it.
Also, silver miners are hanging on a cliff and have been absolute turds since the “bottom” in July.
I personally, don’t think there will be any real break out until next February/March. Before then expect the hammer to fall, as it always does.
muhahaha muhahaha, just what the bankers want you to think Spanky! In all seriousness, it was a nice rejection. Lets see where we close;
https://gyazo.com/d9c8a989c1cfc029e828817fa9a7f4af
if we make this oct12 peak zone short oct 20 rings a large bell imo…would love to see a smash to 1200 by then – go bears (aasuming we do not break 1320 .
There was a gap put in on the HUI yesterday. Today we are getting an outside day down and still haven’t filled the gap. Lovely action.
My EXK is down 6% today. I didn’t think their earnings were that bad. What a POS. It’s anyone’s guess how low they take this turd.
Make up for it. Get long AEM and hold for a month. +10 points for sure.
JNUG at $19.53 might be the low of the day.
This might be a good spot to get in for the day.
Ah yes Goild, you are a sweetheart. Encourage people to buy so you can get out at 19.77 ๐
vix may have to finish its bounce before sm can find its legs.
Nada,
Getting out at $19.77 would not be smart. I need to make money today.
Big guts, big money expected.
Yes sir, you are a swinging dick with those 21,000 shares of JNUG my friend! GL and lets make some lunch money!
Hanging on at 19.23 ain’t smart either.
I sold TZA for a break even trade. The SM doe not appear as if it wants to roll over today.
21000 shares ???? That’s some serious cash.
When does Ped return from paid leave?
Ped will return when it suits Gary.
lol.. wink wink.. I know what you are implying ๐
Great day for the metals and the miners (that I follow) are all in the red.
One would have to assume this is a prelude to Gary’s prediction (drop).
Russell 2000 just biding its time waiting for yen to get flushed. When it does, the ramp job will continue. Entering its 5th week of stochastics being overbought on the daily chart. That is ridiculous. Just buy every single dip with both hands and feet.
*insane*
https://gyazo.com/e661912d4f8f93a8025b80bc0e388516
That is about the most bullish looking consolidation you can get. Second stage of the rocket ride is about to resume.
Nah.. This is what is coming Spanky;
https://gyazo.com/c2a0c3deca3a886f1cd2e8a6f1650e2d
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51407664022&a=549530107&listNum=1
I did sell some shares and rebought them.
I am down about $8k.
I will keep the shares overnight.
Just buy every single tag of the 10 day ema in the Russell. If it actually ever touches the 20 dma, mortgage the double wide and go 1000% long.
looks like my DUST position is already green ๐
Yep otherwise we would have never heard from you ๐
you’re so nasty Nada… (( :
LOL, I was just messing around with AT. Bored without Ped stirring the pot ๐
I mentioned yesterday that Miners were due for an ‘intraday’ correction but the bounce UP isn’t over.. just yet.
Ugly day. Outside day down. Typically means more downside, although I suppose it’s possible to make a higher high before the miners finally roll over. I personally think the miners topped today.
Projects to 1750 on $RUT. I’ll bet we won’t even see a 3% correction on the trip there.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24RUT&p=D&yr=4&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51407664022&a=549530107&listNum=1
It seems I will not sleep very well tonight.
We shall see how much is the damage.
Have a nice day.
I think the rug pull is over so and I hate not having any stake in the miners so I just bought a couple of hundred GDXJ.
GDX is showing up on the BOW. But GLD is also on the SOS list.
It will be interesting to see the final print today in regards to the miners. The current SOS/BOW are insignificant at 15m and +2m. You see this appear and drop off throughout the day.
tiny amount on GDX, I doubt that it’s significant. Amount on GLD is larger, but still small. So I wouldn’t give either one of these any significance. Unless the amounts get much larger by end of day.
looking at the 4:17 PM BoW and SoS, I don’t see GLD or GDX on either list. However, GDXJ is near the top of the BoW list with a pretty large number.
Yes bankers like to rotate between GDXj and GDX. GDXJ got shook the hardest (.45 cents vs .17 on GDX), so you saw the weak hands handing over their shares.
You will not see GLD on BOW because it closed green.
$4950 Bitcoin = 1% of Gold market
$25000 Bitcoin= 5% of Gold market
IMPOSSIBLE. Lol….
I wonder if we will ever see Bigdaddy again? He has been gone for a couple of weeks. Miss the guy.
Hey Lenapowich I saw him yesterday;
https://gyazo.com/02d1a06336d7152f3cd9dc0299742182
^LOL^
LOL! Very funny. Poor DB. I wonder if he is still short the SM? he did get silver right though.
AT — you holding the DUST or selling it?
I’m holding, my avg is 23.71, so just a bit green at the moment. I’ll wait for a $5 – $7 leg down in Gold tomorrow and hope to sell DUST above 24.5
Indexes are all green. US market is anticipating the imminent torching of the yen. If the yen does break down, gold and silver could have dramatic sell offs.
AMZN has been consolidating for the last couple of months. The weekly stochastics are now screaming “buy”. The final piece for Nasdaq 12,0000 is in place.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p62053152575&a=549539761&listNum=1
Remember, FOMC minutes tomorrow – should add to the fun when holding 21,000 shares of JNUG ๐
eh. I expect it to be a non-event. If anything it will be the nail in yen’s coffin.
Goild, that’s how you can destroy your account, what are you thinking to buy 21000 where bounce can last 2-4 days? 8k loss is a 10days of your lunch money and what if FOMC triple it? Please consider to trade with no more then 10k if you are uncertain where it can go in the next 2-4 days.
Victor,
Thank you for the care.
I just sold 11K shares at $19.38.
Left 10K shares. So far the loss is about $5300.
Risk of ruin is not an option. So cut risk and be patient.
Where was the bounce that recovered 25% of your loss?
https://gyazo.com/da3593a6828633eaddca3936cf50d6b2
Let us not forget that help from others here can be precious.
Once one is heavily in, the judgment is impaired.
Do not trade entirely alone, ask for help whenever needed.
Thank you ๐
At about 3:51 JNUG went to $19.41.
Loss today with JNUG at $19.30 is $6300.
10K shares on the table.
US indexes spiked into the close. What else in new.
AMZN ready for moonshot.
GDXJ showing up on BOW for 103m.
Oh man, I’m going to be riiiiiiiich!
lol, come on Spanky.. With all those bearish comments I thought you were balls deep in JDST ๐
I’m really startin to doubt that gold and miners are in a bull market……too much time has passed since the baby bull rise.
From the top in august 2016 we have been in a limbo for more than a year and still we are going nowhere.
And now even goldman sachs have said today that gold will fall to 1100 (and even worse).
The Fed can’t afford to let commodities rise. They have total control over the complex in conjunction with the BoJ.
The Fed can modulate risk/commodities simply by playing with USDJPY.
Why? Why “The Fed canโt afford to let commodities rise.”?
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-24/goldman-tells-clients-start-buying-gold-raises-price-target-100
palobar
October 4, 2017 at 3:20 pm
The September inflection point that was mentioned well in advance in the July discussions is behind us and we are approaching the first of the two strong turning points for October. I had previously mentioned the 10th of October but I omitted to mention the 8th which is equally important, thus making 8-10 the first strong timing window. However, the 8th falls on Sunday. Also, by experience, highs or lows can fall off one-two days. Therefore, the time window between 6-11 most likely will provide the first meaningful swing point after the high we saw in September. Either the โ8-10โ or the โ20-23โ October should provide a nice LONG trading opportunity. Nevertheless, making a low here (instead of a high) suggests that we are NOT yet in a bull market. The possibility of seeing one more sharp decline later is still on the table.
———————————
Timing window 1: check
Time for DWT for me. Out of metals and miners ahead of Fed Minutes today. I see a nose dive coming. Silver looks ready to Cascade down. Or at least it’s close enough to the cliff that I decided to bail out.
And long UGAZ since yesterday.
Shorting oil, long Natty, nuetral metals but no position.
Good morning,
Sold 2500 JNUG shares at $19.50 to reduce risk.
7500 reminding.
Price targets:
xauusd: 1348
usdjpy: 110.38
Good trading to all.
if we drop hard in gold to oct 12, a sharp move to 1320 would become a good probability imo…strangle time…up 70%, down 30%…b/e on down for option trades.
Got rid of 5000 JNUG shares to reduce the loss to $2300 with JNUG at $19.75.
Left for old turkey 2500 shares in the swing account.
https://preciousmetalsforecast.com/2017/10/11/gdxj-forecast/
sm at risk of stalling?
So far the DCL is playing out as just a sideways consolidation.
Neither gold nor silver appear to be weak today although a weaker dollar is helping. I don’t think I will add to my GDXJ just yet.
Remember FOMC minutes at 2pm eastern.
Funny how the stock market refuses to correct. It’s just up and then more up.
Another rug pull.
Well, got caught again.
Total loss $10K with JNUG at $18.90 and about 15300 shares.
We shall see.
GOILD goes from winning lunch money every single day with a strategy that would put to shame every hedge fund in the world, to suddenly losing thousands of dollars — strange I say ๐
With JNUG at $18.5 today’s loss is $10K plus $6.3 from yesterday….
Well we shall see.
DUST sell order filled
New Trade Oct 11 SOLD 75% DUST 24.48
Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92
Oct 6 SOLD 100% JNUG 19.20
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07
Sep 26 sold 50% DUST 24.16
Sep 25 buy 50% DUST 23.45
Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25
Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
This is why it’s so hard to trade counter trend moves.
I’ve been doing this for a long time. I’m not kidding when I say that counter trend trades will cost you in the long run. No successful money manager would ever trade like this. Yet most amateur traders will ignore me and try anyway. And if they win once or twice at it they will take that as a sign that they are smarter than the market and just keep doing it until many years later it occurs to them that they ultimately just lost a lot of money with this strategy.
Just because you sucked at it doesn’t mean others aren’t doing it with some degree of success Mr know it all ๐
This is where the one or two winning trades convince one to keep trying.
But I guarantee by the end of ones career you will have more money in your account if you don’t make counter trend trades.
My mentor tried to beat this into my head early but like almost everyone I had to lose money before I finally realized he knew what he was talking about.
Except that I’m no amateur and have been at it long enough to tell you that TIME & PLACE and STRATEGY with a little INTUITION is how you make money on a counter trend.
What you failed to highlight is that most people don’t understand TIME & PLACE and/or don’t have a STRATEGY in place or lack INTUITION all together. Which one are you?
And furthermore, most people HATE TO ADMIT — EGO — that there are certain things they’re just not that good at. You are most certainly one of those Gary.
Except no one is going to believe any of that until you are willing to put your balls on the line and enter the challenge.
How did I know you were gonna say that, LMAO ๐
I already post my trades in REAL TIME on this blog. That should be good enough to show people that you can make money trading a countertrend move.
Gary, I’d like to hear a little more about your mentor.
AT has been doing a good job of it Gary, so hats off to him.
Not that I’m trying to make predictions but 1200 certainly isn’t out of the real of possibilities.. Unlikely IMO but not impossible, depending on the magnitude and momentum of the next leg down.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XTWqvp3n/
Sorry — was trying to fix ‘typo’ and submitted twice by mistake.
Absolutely not out of the question. That being said, the 89 WMA positively crossed the 233 WMA already. I would be pretty surprised at this point if we get a solid weekly close below the declining 233 WMA, which is coming in at 1245 currently and should be flattening out soon. The same is true for GDX. It’s 233 WMA is coming in at 21.94.
Not that I’m trying to make predictions but 1200 certainly isn’t out of the realm of possibilities.. Unlikely IMO but not impossible, depending on the magnitude and momentum of the next leg down.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/XTWqvp3n/
Dejavu?
Unless gold can somehow recover and make a higher high the intermediate cycle is going to left translate.
Is that not what my chart is saying??
is he saying the IC will left translate, not the DC. So implying that gold will make a lower low than 1204?
Another new trade today โ added also JNUG after selling all DUST
New Trade Oct 11 BUY JNUG 50% 18.56
New Trade Oct 11 SOLD 75% DUST 24.48
Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92
Oct 6 SOLD 100% JNUG 19.20
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07
Sep 26 sold 50% DUST 24.16
Sep 25 buy 50% DUST 23.45
Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25
Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
AT after you copy/paste, can you clean it up a bit and just include the relevant section – showing your trades all the way back from July.. come on man, work with us!
ok, ๐
Great job though. If your JNUG buy works out that is going to be a hell of a trade.
Ha! That’s what I was saying the other day. October will suffice AT. We don’t care what happened back in July. And we get it — you’re amaze-balls and probably own a villa in the South of France facing La Mรฉditerranรฉe ๐
I wish, almost recovering from a bad huge trade last year when went in big at JNUG 23
GDXJ moves down much faster than it did upwards…
LOL, if we see miners rally after FOMC its going to be priceless. Yields, dollar and usdjpy down and miners take a dump, has the fingerprints of bankers.
*fomc minutes
I think the path of least resistance is down. The market is looking for any reason to sell the yen, and I think they will find it. Yesterday’s candle was black, so I expect any meager rally from here to be given up soon.
Yes, it would be. But we are on the 3rd day after the DC already and the 4-hourly looks very weak. Only thing is, 1298 has not been touched as of yet. Maybe short spike after FOMC.
AT,
Thanks for posting your trades and congratulations again on such a great stream!
Stock market up up an away. Once the yen starts its terminal slide, it is going to be like nitrous for the stock market. You cannot lose.
3rd trade today, back in cash with a good profit
NEW TRADE: Oct 11 SOLD JNUG 50% 19.39
Oct 11 BUY JNUG 50% 18.56
Oct 11 SOLD 75% DUST 24.48
Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92
Oct 6 SOLD 100% JNUG 19.20
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 18.83
Sep 26 BUY 50% JNUG 19.07
Sep 26 sold 50% DUST 24.16
Sep 25 buy 50% DUST 23.45
Sep 22 SOLD 50% JNUG 19.25
Sep 21, BUY 50% JNUG 18.41
Sep 18 – sold 100% DUST 23.45
Aug 31 – buy 50% DUST 21.80
Aug 28 – buy 50% DUST 23.06
Aug 24 – sold 50% JNUG 18.89
Aug 22 – buy 50% JNUG 18.27
Aug 18 sold 100% JNUG 18.80
Aug 2 buy 50% JNUG 18.20
Jul 31 buy 50% JNUG 18.59
Jul 28 sold 100% JNUG 18.69
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.61
Jul 27 buy 50% JNUG 17.98
Jul 24 sold 100% DUST 30.95
Jul 18 buy 50% DUST 30.19
sorry, last time posting all trades