271 thoughts on “STILL PLENTY OF TIME LEFT

  1. ocram

    Martin Armstrong thinks that the SM will double from here(as well as Gary ) and that the dollar will go up along with it.
    Gold will not act as in the past (like a safe haven)because younger people don’t care about it.
    any thoughts about it?
    (I must say that in the longer term his social cycles seems to be correct)

    1. Gary Post author

      He’s right about the stock market but wrong about virtually everything else.

      The global economy did not turn down in 2015.

      The euro is not going to collapse. It’s starting a new bull market.

      We are not in deflation. In a purely fiat monetary system deflation is a myth. It can only occur if a government allows it to happen.

      In reality we are about to enter an extreme inflationary period. It will manifest first as a stock market bubble. Then the inflation will get into the commodity markets and give us the traditional inflation that is bad for the world.

      I’ve been saying for 9 years now that the end game will be played out as a series of currency crisis. We are at the very beginning of that in the dollar.

    2. Nada

      God help us if we are counting on millennials to bid up gold. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue their buying frenzy. I wonder what the price of gold will do when the dollar loses its reserve currency status and its backed on Yuan which is turn backed by gold?

      I am sure thats all a pipe dream though for goldbugs, as I doubt the US will go quietly into the night.

      1. ocram

        Either the US will peg the dollar to gold (if there is still in fort knox) or the US will start a new world war.
        I agree that they will not go quietly into the night.

    3. Jimsee

      does he really believe this mismatch in vectors? young people generally need to become middle aged before they have any influence on capital reserves outside of consumer demand. 5 guys in China will have more influence for the next 5years at least. Perhaps in the jeston age to come he is correct – but these things take longer than expected imo.

    1. Nada

      I think he is more concerned about his 10,000 shares of SPXU at an average or 14.60ish. I hope he got out of that thing as the SM is not to be shorted.

      1. Gary Post author

        I kind of doubt it. He’s on a kick right now that he should hold his positions until they show a profit. Almost everyone goes through that phase after they lose money on a string of trades that would have paid off if held.

        The problem is that strategy will cause one to take a huge loss at some point. And during a bubble phase you will destroy your portfolio trying to short.

        I’ve tried everything I can think of to deter people from selling stocks short. But it’s just human nature to try to pick tops.

  2. Jimsee

    if nugt trades below 30 I think I’ll take a loss in the contest (3% or so) on a DAG position if necessary for a better balance with nugt/dag. at that price the potential as about the same imo.

  3. Christian

    It’s starting to look like a bottom in the Miners.. I’ll exit my DUST trade on a pullback and switch over to NUGT to make up for that small loss.

    Plus, the full moon is coming up, Lol!

  4. Gary Post author

    It still seems a bit early for the dollar cycle to top.

    I’d be wary of another fake out in the metals and the final DCL on the jobs number Friday or Monday.

    The safer trade now would be to sell the rally as we should still have one more daily cycle lower after this one.

    1. Nada

      I think you may be discounting the possibility that gold may have a right translated cycle and then anther cycle that is left translated. We could very well put in a new high in gold during this cycle once it bottoms (if it has not already).

      However, you may be right and this bounce is left translated, but without a crystal ball or time machine, no one really knows.

      1. Nada

        I guess from what I see, your opinion is motivated by what the currencies are doing or what you perceive they will do in the future.

        You have stated numerous times that currencies are not your forte and cycles have no bearing over their movements due to the policies of central banks/fed. With that said, you continue to base your viewpoint of gold on those perceived currency movements. So that is why I think your bias is a bit skewed.

      2. Pedestrian

        I don’t put a lot of stock in right versus left translation. Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn’t. Like a lot of things in life actually. But it sure as hell does not offer any guarantee and I am not sure it even offers much of an edge if you can’t read it right.

    2. Spanky

      Yep. Agreed. There is no way in the yen is going to get any traction unless the jobs number is negative. And we all know there is no way in hell that is going to happen.

      At best, it will be a buy the news/short covering rally in yen and PMs.

      As long as commodities are in the shitter, central banks can breathe easy, and as long as the BoJ is willing to print more than the Fed, there is absolutely no way commodities will crawl out of the toilet bowl. They are at 40+ year lows, they could drift down for another 10 years and no one would blink and eye.

      I agree with you Gary, the only thing that could derail this fairy tale is a monstrous bubble and the express “Fed put” virtually guarantees that outcome. It’s the greatest moral hazard in history IMO. For example, what is the risk to owning a TBTF like Goldman Sachs? Answer: there is none. Dick Bove was right, 2008 was a generational buy in the banks–they are expressly guaranteed by the US govt for god’s sake.

    1. Pedestrian

      I’m also in JNUG from the open. Around 17.95
      Next week I don’t want to hear Gary say “you bought in hindsight” or some other such nonsense.
      This site has zero trust in peoples words.

      Also in HGU and NUGT

      Go gold!

        1. Pedestrian

          No. I won’t email you.

          Thanks for the offer Gary. But I am not interested in the contest.

          I don’t even trade for the money. Mostly just the satisfaction of getting it right.

          1. Nada

            Ped, send me the money you win in your trades and I will be sure to post you were right. For me, its all about the money. What else is there?

          2. Pedestrian

            I think my wife wants the money LOL.
            Personally I don’t really care though. Got enough already.

          3. Pedestrian

            Ideally I would like to ride these back up to the top but knowing myself I will want to sell before the first major pullback and reload once its pulled back. I am trying to adjust my style a little though and trade in and out less often. Might be getting lazy!

      1. Christian

        “Iโ€™m also in JNUG from the open. Around 17.95”

        Of course you are, but I can almost guarantee that if JNUG had gone the other direction, you wouldn’t have said a peep.

        Unless you post within a minute of your trade, it’s still in hindsight and for all we know it could just be a bunch of baloney — sorry but not sorry because it’s true :/

        Yup, no trust in people.

        1. Pedestrian

          That’s completely nuts. Man are you ever PARANOID!

          You have been reading my comments for weeks and know exactly my play. I called a decline to 1280 (which actually ended up falling to 1272) followed by a rise to 1368 and potentially higher. So I am playing for a minimum gold upside of 90 some dollars with an outside chance of a 1400 dollar top which gives us another 30 dollars headroom.

          After that the plan is to short heavily into a multi-month decline as USD rises.

          So no, I would not have reported differently if the trade went a few cents South at the bell since I already have a clear idea of where metals and miners are going according to my technical outlook.

          I actually ended up paying 25 cents more than I initially wanted to buy for but that was because I had some last minute doubts last Friday which I already mentioned. No matter, I am in at a respectable price and the chart looks fabulous.

  5. Christian

    Folks, if you’re gonna post your trades — Post in REAL TIME!!

    Not at the end of the day or an hour later when the stock is moving in your favour! That’s bs and you know it.

      1. Christian

        Buddy โ€” get this through your thick head! Market analysis and opinions aside, everyone and their grandmother can post AFTER THE FACT.. either you post in REAL TIME or don’t bother posting at all. It’s that F*ckin simple ๐Ÿ™‚

        1. JJHarmen

          Christian, quit wasting your time trying to get Pedestrian to post his trades in real time. He says what he wants and no one is allowed to hold him accountable. He is special.

          1. Christian

            No Ped you posted AFTER THE FACT once JNUG had a nice run up and it was safe for you to post on the blog. Don’t be so obtuse!

            JJ โ€” You’re right. I’ll pipe down..

  6. vin

    This is a life time opportunity. Five more months and nasdaq will be at 12k (double) and even 24k (quadruple)!

    Right Gary?

    A life time opportunity. We may not get another opportunity like this ever again. A can’t wait. Is everyone as excited as I am?

    Remember this is not even 3X. We should all be thankful to Gary for making us aware of such opportunities. How we use such deep insight is up to us.

    Good luck everyone.

  7. Goild

    I got into JDST chasing the bottom. Finally I got paid.
    It would have been so “easy” to have gone JNUG long,
    I still believe we have not seen the bottom in the miners.
    Though I am carrying 1K GDX shares and 500 JNUG shares.

  8. Strike2

    FWIW-
    Call me naive, but I believe Ped got into JNUG this morning, primarily due to his well-documented plan to do so pending gold bottoming. I’m not sure I understand the big deal about the 4% difference anyway.
    Also, I believe Goild does what he says on a daily basis. He could have deferred to post the screenshot but did so anyway. What would be his motivation to work so hard fabricating his trades anyway? And he’s the nicest guy on the board.

    1. Christian

      Strike โ€” In the world of Finance if it sounds too good to be true then it probably is.

      Goild is indeed one of the nicest guys on the board, no one is questioning that.. We were simply asking him to back up his claims which at one point were sounding a tad unrealistic.

      There’s nothing wrong with asking so I’d really appreciate it if folks could stop getting all chocked up about it :/ I’m pretty sure no harm was done and the man will continue to make lunch money..!

    2. Pedestrian

      Thanks Strike. Yes it is pointless to fabricate trades. For all I know my JNUG and others will all be red next week and that cannot be hidden because I already posted my whole plan well in advance of the buy. I only did so because Gary was annoyed I backed out last Friday after expressing certainty. So this is to keep peace. But I am indeed in and damn the torpedoes.

  9. Goild

    We need to raise the standards.
    Because higher standards means more money in our pockets.
    We need to attract more good thinking.
    We need to have BD back to get his humor.
    We need more good humor.

  10. Pedestrian

    For those of you who play to channels, this post may be of interest.

    What I want you to do here is just run a line across all the peaks on this “daily” chart of the Nikkei. The thing to notice is that where the index currently sits is just a few points shy of a 10 month resistance line that we could hit as soon as tomorrow.

    So why does that matter?

    Well the reason is that the Nikkei is what puts the most pressure on Yen and it is the Yen that mostly dictates what golds next move will be. So if we hit that multi-month resistance line and see the Nikkei fall back (the expected outcome) then we will see Yen/dollars rise and gold start to move back up.

    This is potentially a very bullish set-up for precious metals and may even herald a minor correction in the Japanese indices. Should an October correction unfold then gold and silver are about to do very well indeed and we will most likely see gold back at its highs before the month is finished.

    Anyway, once you have found the resistance channel then the next thing you do automatically is search for the primary support lines below it where the Nikkei could *potentially* fall too. We never know for certain where that line will be so its good to have several in mind. You can locate them using Fibs, pivot points, parallel channels or whatever is your favorite cup of tea.

    Anyway, I just wanted to give a heads up to one of the charts I watch. And this one is getting interesting. Should price bust right through on a first attempt then this minor gold rally would likely be stopped in its tracks. If gold is not performing as you expect then just go back and check the Nikkei as a reference point to help explain why that is so.

    Nikkei Futures are closing in on a multi-month resistance line that could spell good news for gold.
    https://www.finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?p=d1&t=NKD

    1. Pedestrian

      Let’s invite Sassy, JJHarmen, Christian and Lena to join the discussion on Nikkei and Yen technicals and then sit by and wait while they never bother to show up since they are so busy sticking pins in other people. What horrible lives they must lead.

      So depressing.

  11. Goild

    Ped,

    Thank you for the insight. I will digest it.
    Now, CPI/$UST2y is flat. Both cpi and $UST2y are going up. There is no “real” inflation.
    The FED I think is holding it.
    The ratios $UST2y /$Gold, $UST2y /FXY, $UST2y /TIP, TLT they all appear going up to the next level up.
    Before the NK, JNUG hit $17.75 and reversed. I think gold will continue the path down till the end of the month.
    But yes this week is critical, the above ratios either keep raising or reverse.

      1. jacob2

        Probably not much interest here as mostly individual stocks and only one ETF (SBIO). Recently as of this summer concentrated mostly on buying the cheapest things around: oil, oil service, industrial metals, tankers ( late cycle) , small cap tech and emerging market stocks. Just started looking at some nice looking PM charts but holding off for a while. December sounds about right. Good luck and thanks for asking.

  12. primetime

    Ped,

    Be careful, the parasites here are trying to get under your skin, get you all emotional, and cause problems. Be strong.

    Everyone beware: Christian is off his meds the last couple days and is looking for a fight to which he will declare his innocence. We all know his game by now.

    Happy trading.

    1. Nada

      I don’t see any of that. What is the issue here? He called BS on someone posting day after day that they made x amount of dollars in hindsight trading? I think its natural to not believe. Lets not forget, all we saw was a screenshot of +500. That does not mean it happens everyday.

      Fidelity offers paper trading accounts, like most brokers. You think people would not go to the effort to make profits up?! It happens ALL the time. I see it ALL over the place. Anyway.. I think Goild is a nice guy too, but that does not mean one can not be skeptical — especially when someone says they are using 5m timeframe and candlestick patterns as the basis for their trades. Candlestick patterns have the lowest probability of ANY trading strategy known to man.

      Anyway, all he was saying.. post in real time or keep it to yourself. People always say, well I don’t have time to post in real time – well they sure do find time to post in hindsight.

        1. Nada

          Typically it would not. However, when it became day after day.. then it changed a bit to.. I was down 5k, but I managed to enter a short at the top of the black marubozu candle and netted 600 for lunch money.

          You get my point. Maybe it would have been best to ignore.. but what can I say, it did annoy the fork out of me ๐Ÿ™‚

          1. Pedestrian

            No, it is a fact. That trade of mine has a target top substantially above today’s price several weeks out. Not that you would know given your feeble comments on GDX a short while ago. But then you are a critic, not a trader.

            It’s all personality with you types and zero substance.

    2. Pedestrian

      Yes Primetime, you are right. They are trying to leave bait for me each day for entertainment or reaction. Best thing to do is surf my other sites and turn this one off.

        1. Christian

          +1000 points for NADA — the word ‘devious’ was a very good choice my friend ๐Ÿ™‚

          I’m glad that you get it because I don’t think my request to post in REAL TIME is unreasonable [or out of jealousy? Lol wtf really?!] by any stretch of the imagination but some will continuously play up the victim card, or just play dumb when it suits them.

  13. MagnuM

    I don’t care where people are day-to-day, week-to-week, or even month-to-month. I care about YTD. Where you land up from Jan 1st –> Dec 31st. If you’re actually making money on a long timeframe. Anyone can get lucky from time to time.

  14. Goild

    I am very tempted to sell the 500 JNUG shares.
    This might be very well a bull trap.

    But I think I need to work on waiting discipline.
    So I will leave them in peace.

    1. Nada

      Sell the JNUG but keep the 1k GDX? Topping and bottoming process in gold is the most annoying of any asset. The problem with gold is that he has no regards for time.

  15. Lenapowich

    We have a meager gain in GDX today but we are coming up to the “rug pull” time so it could turn negative at the blink of an eye. Maybe today will be different.

  16. Strike2

    Having strong convictions and expressing them is ok by me. I prefer concepts be the targets of attack rather than posters, but I am not the moderator so I go with the flow.
    Ped stands out (among other reasons) because he is the lone long-term gold bear on a PM leaning board. His voice is necessary whether I agree or not in order to have some segment of balance. The fact that he backs up his views with detailed technicals doesn’t ensure that he is correct but makes for consideration at least. In fact the dichotomy between Gary’s short term view and Ped’s makes for a very interesting and informative battle of t/a vs cycles and sentiment in my view. I do not wish to muzzle any part of this real-time debate.

    1. Pedestrian

      Appreciated Strike. The girls (which include JJ and Christian) seem to prefer nasty personal commentary over dialogue but are entirely silent when a detail discussion of gold markets and technicals emerge. I am trying to scroll past lately but they never quit. Pretty weird. I had quite a bit to add about miners but decided its not worth it so will post on my other site for the rest of today.

      1. Christian

        Ped — Your opinion [although a little over-inflated and argumentative at times] is always welcomed here.. Just post your trades in REAL TIME next time, that’s all. Thx bud ๐Ÿ™‚

        btw.. I thought you said you were done for the day?

  17. Spanky

    What next?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p04107644663&a=548221007&listNum=1

    I am holding but I expect this one to produce some crazy up and down action on the next few months. The monthly bollinger bands are getting very narrow. The upper band is coming in at $2.00 while the lower band is coming in at .99.

    If we get a smooth ramp higher, I would be shocked, but I won’t complain. The nature of this sector is to produce massive headfakes before rallies, however.

  18. Jimsee

    so far gold is still resilient against the downtrending fundamental indicator – movign down but slightly stronger – considering we’re coming off a COT hi short position, it looks constructive so far…looks like just a controlled inventory burn.

  19. Jimsee

    I guess talking about losing positions without a timstamp is OK? LOL – my poor weekend calls lost 1/2 with no wknd upswing setup tosmashem good on friday….will dump them at b/e should we get there after friday.

  20. alvinheart

    Tough call here regarding immediate direction of the metals. Sold my Dust yesterday, re-entered today, then pulled out and went to cash (TQQQ actually). The GDXJ/GLD Stochs suggests more upside to this move. The 1-hr gdx/gld also has a MACD cross favoring the metals. On the other side, the YEN looks like it is consolidating for a move lower — dollar higher. Then there is the Full moon Friday — often, not always, marks a short term bottom or top in gold. This could go either way — we get a very huge drop into Friday, and it marks a bottom Or, we get a hcl in the dollar on Friday, and a Short term top in gold. So, pulled out and watching and waiting.

      1. Gary Post author

        It’s way too late in the cycle to be buying DUST. The time to buy DUST will be once we get a counter trend rally and the short term RSI tags overbought. That would be the spot to enter DUST.

        No we aren’t going to see gold re test the recent highs like Ped is calling for. Gold is most likely in a triangle consolidation pattern. Triangles don’t make higher highs until they are ready to breakout.

          1. Pedestrian

            I was being dead serious. We will retest the September gold high of 1362 (this month) and then make another run at the 2016 high of 1368 which I believe will be exceeded.

            The time to buy gold trades is now as we have reached the current bottom of the September decline.

            There is also a fair possibility gold will rise as high as 1400 dollars before burning itself out but this really depends on time. The longer it takes for us to reach the prior highs the less chance exists for new highs as the resistance line drops lower each day.

            Whatever high is reached however will be the most we see out of gold in 2017 because after that the trending direction will be down during the resumption of the dollars renewed bull market.

            There will not be a January rally to new highs either although I won’t rule out a bounce that happens along the falling trend line. Golds outlook is still generally poor and we will remain in a bear market for most of 2018.

            I see the low 1100’s as a distinct possibility for a final low however price could fall much deeper, even matching the 1040 bottom seen back in December of 2015 depending on the fierceness of the dollar rally.

            I would be cautious with gold mining stock in the event there is a stock market correction. In other words, gold itself would do relatively well in a market rout but gold stock could get hurt as any sell-off would see most equities decline including miners.

            Should gold stock sell off hard during a market correction I would treat that as a buying opportunity even if gold itself was still predicted to keep falling for a while longer.

            The decline that is coming for gold will be the last one during this long bear market in precious metals so there is some hope. What we really need to focus on is where the dollar eventually tops out to know that we have finally arrived at the end of this gold bear.

            Unfortunately that part is less clear although I am estimating it will come late in 2018 which is about a year from now. A last note, I think that gold stock will begin to outperform metals as the stock market moves into its late stage highs and people start to sense that the end is coming for general equities.

            So precious metals miners will likely lead gold itself and be on the rise before the dollar finally hits its top because sector rotation will already be underway. So the time to buy PM stocks is pretty much anytime you see a selective opportunity to pick up a bargain.

            And one last comment: Don’t be anywhere near the ETF’s such as JNUG or NUGT (examples only) as the stock market reaches its zenith as these things could suddenly suffer from a serious liquidity crisis when the stock bubble pops and come down very hard if an air pocket opens up beneath them.

            My advice would be to own a selection of hand-picked good quality miners to avoid the risk that ETF’s bring to the market.

  21. Gary Post author

    For those of you trying to convince yourself that gold is forming an ICL now don’t forget ICL’s have to complete at least a three wave move down. An ABC correction. Far too many traders ignored this rule during the last ICL and entered way too early.

    As of today we only have an A-wave down. We will need a counter trend B-wave bounce followed by a second leg down before gold can complete the ICL.

    The earliest this could occur would be late October and more realistic at this point would be sometime in November.

    1. Spanky

      Who are these mystery bulls? Has a single person argued for an ICL here?

      Give me a break. The gold bugs have assumed the position and are ready for a lube-free reaming once the bounce is over.

        1. Sassybabe

          That is a very pertinent point Gary. I never thought of it that way. Bitcoin or any other crypto currency, would have to be stable to be accepted for wide-spread usage.

        2. Roy Batty

          That’s easy. 1) Take payment in bitcoin and immediately convert to the fiat or crypto of your choice. 2) Bitcoin can be traded anonymously. 3) Bitcoin payment is irreversible. 4) Bitcoin fees are zero or tiny. 5) You can easily accomplish micro transactions due to very low fees, unlike other forms of centrally controlled payments. 6) More customers buying your goods and services, such as the unbanked or third worlders with no access to banking services. etc.etc. etc.

  22. Anthonyo

    FIRST; 20%-30% bear market correction coming in US stocks.
    The higher it manically goes, the harder and deeper the fall will be.

    THEN, and only then, the final leg to 39,000 will begin in 2018 to 2020.

    BUT, the much hoopla’d term thrown around PREMATURELY as the Promise Land “Bubble phase” will have to have a stroke first baby.

  23. Sassybabe

    Pedestrian
    October 3, 2017 at 12:04 pm
    Letโ€™s invite Sassy, JJHarmen, Christian and Lena to join the discussion on Nikkei and Yen technicals and then sit by and wait while they never bother to show up since they are so busy sticking pins in other people. What horrible lives they must lead.

    So depressing.

    I have not “stuck pins ” in you or anyone else. I thought Gary had put a stop to your harassment of other posters but I guess that was too much to expect from a bad man like you. And by the way, I still believe your opinions and analysis to be worthless but I will refrain from commenting on your verbal vomit as Gary wishes and do not want you do not mention my name again.

    1. Pedestrian

      Quite a few pins in that monologue. Why don’t you talk markets instead and save yourself this public humiliation of looking and sounding so stupid every day?

  24. Pedestrian

    We have a tradeable moment today.

    As expected, the Nikkei has been repelled at its 10 month long resistance line and is dropping at this early hour. We are down 90 points total thus far which is not a great deal however we will want to monitor this in case it gathers strength for the rest of the week.

    Gold should likely perform well today with the Yen/$ rising and trades like UGLD, USLV, NUGT and JNUG doing alright. Many of these are near technical bottoms anyway. The Fib reversal on JNUG as an example was 17.55 if I recall and it is already up over 18 dollars.

    The first support on Nikkei futures I am watching to break is near 20,500 and we just take them one level at a time after that. You can locate that easily on an hourly chart (linked)
    https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=NKD&p=h1

    If that is breached then things start to really look up for gold as Yen will begin to fall. A second important support comes in around 19,400 at an eyeballs glance. We are just playing by ear here though so if the Nikkei quickly recovers and exceeds the prior highs then any gold trades will go limp and fail.

    I would not expect a whole lot of action until early next week in any case but we will probably see an erosion on the Nikkei all this week and those of you holding GDX and the like will start feeling a little better. It has begun a bounce off its 200 DMA incidentally which suggests to me a minor stock market pullback is in the cards.

      1. Sassybabe

        How about not referring to me at all? Why is that Gary never threatens you with banning as he does to others when you so clearly deserve it? Is it true that you really are Gary ?

        1. Pedestrian

          Because I don’t write things like the following:
          —————————————————————-

          “…too much to expect from a bad man like you. And by the way, I still believe your opinions and analysis to be worthless but I will refrain from commenting on your verbal vomit” — Rude-Babe

  25. Sassybabe

    Fine. I will never allow a bully like you to intimidate me. Bigdaddy was right about you. So many of your predictions have failed and no doubt, will continue to fail because you are a fool. I wish you were not on the same side of a trade as I am because you are wrong so often.

    1. Pedestrian

      You know rude-Babe, if I had time and the site was more flexible I would probably write a little more on the topic of what bothers your generation so much since frustration seems to seep out of all your comments. Its not just that you gals are mostly single, childless or unmarried, unhappy with your careers, dead-ass broke most of the time and sinking under a burden of credit cards and student loan debt. It’s that so few of you seem to have any idea how to escape the trap that was built for you and hardly an inkling of how you even arrived here. As the inheritors of your mothers revolution it seems to me that most of you squandered the gains on misplaced anger rather than taking a more positive approach to empowerment which most of you don’t merit anyway. But this is a finance blog and the entertainment value of ripping off a few of the bandages from the dimwitted efforts or your predecessors is probably going to be too funny to fit in around here. So I won’t bother. Suffice to say, most of you younger gals get an E for effort since you function by formula and lack imagination and creativity while suffering a dearth of historical context that might explain your pointless hostility to people around you including those on the web you have never even met!

      1. JJHarmen

        Pedestrian. I am not one of your fans but that won’t stop me from saying that I agree with most of what you just said. Young people have been indoctrinated by an education system and by the media, into a system that robs them of self worth. I have noticed that young women, in particular, are unhappy and more inclined to bury their faces into their phones and immerse themselves into the world of social media to escape reality and depression, not realizing they are making the problem worse by doing so.
        I have five nieces in the 25-35 age bracket and not one has expressed any interest in having having children. They are too busy acquiring ‘things’.
        Still. it was completely unjustified to direct your remarks at Sassybabe because you really know nothing about her. She could be a happily married grandmother with six kids of her own for all you know. You character attacks need to stop.

      2. Lenapowich

        Can’t stand this puke of a man but he does have a point. I have three kids and great marriage but know a lot younger women that seem far more interested in their Iphones, hair, and nails than anything of substance, like having a family.

  26. zkotpen

    Regarding right/left translation, might I remind folks that GDX’s yearly cycle is extremely left translated by now.

    I may be off on my timing and still developing the mechanics of trading, but I have mapped out the path of GDX since late February. Pedestrian can attest to that. So can Gary, as the three of us discussed the matter at length over 7 months ago. Even if gold goes above the September high, or last year’s high, I doubt miners will buy it. And even if they did, the totality of the 2017 rally would still be corrective in nature.

    I hesitated for a few months before sharing the warning about not trading GDX off the gold chart, because their corrective patterns are significantly different, especially now that miners appear to be getting into the pointy end of a triangle. And not only that, but a triangle consolidation rally within a larger move down, which is, itself a likely triangle consolidation rally within an even larger move down.

    And by the way, when I say “off on my timing” and “developing the mechanics of trading”, I’m talking about significantly more leverage than 3x, which pretty much requires surgical precision.

  27. Gary Post author

    Ped,
    You started this one.

    “Letโ€™s invite Sassy, JJHarmen, Christian and Lena to join the discussion on Nikkei and Yen technicals and then sit by and wait while they never bother to show up since they are so busy sticking pins in other people. What horrible lives they must lead.

    So depressing.”

    I’m going to give you a week to think about whether you want to stay on the blog. I have no problem with your perma bear view of the markets. I’ll go toe to toe with you any day and match my cycles and sentiment charts up against your technicals.

    But I think we’ve all had enough of these uncalled for character attacks.

    1. RTTPD

      Morning Gary…….

      I wanted to post this video if you have time to watch at some point.

      This guy is talking about a for sure war with North Korea…..and most important of all he is talking about the US having a secret weapon that will change the whole game.

      He’s also on record saying the fed will not raise rates in December and gold and the dollar will violently reverse.

      Now I know you’ve kind of mentioned some of this already – but the ” secret weapon ” talk is very interesting and starts at around 41:00 of the video and ends at around 51:00

      And for the record…….this guy is not some kook, like Cliff High, coming out of nowhere.

      https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=arJyIOM1cs4

    2. Christian

      The thing is Gary.. Pedestrian is one of those that never goes away. He’s the type that’ll probably create a new account using a different ip addy, so just beware.

      It would be pretty funny if Mustang Sally showed up again all of a sudden Lol ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. Nada

        Today is the first day of a swing low in gold and it’s too late to buy? Maybe you are referring to another asset.

        Miners led yesterday, but let’s see if we get follow through as there was significant SOS. These reports coming from US always seem to be bull, so NFP may be reason for caution.

  28. Goild

    Good morning,

    I do not know what kind of a day it would be today,
    But we hope to keep making money.
    Beware of falling knifes.
    I need to be paid today.

  29. Goild

    The market makers probably gave gold a bit of a push to entice traders on the long side.
    Perhaps we will close the gap by 10:00 AM.
    Perhaps greed will take JNUG to $19.50.
    Have a plan and well execute it.

  30. Goild

    For posting stuff we have this suggestion:

    Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout
    October 2, 2017 at 9:40 pm
    Use postimages.org, no acct needed and you can even set expiration dates

  31. Spanky

    Big ole ugly reversal candle on $XJY so far today.

    BTFD in the NASDAQ I guess.

    If the yen continues to fall for another 6 weeks, it will probably coincide with a hell of a run up in the US markets.

      1. Gary Post author

        It was the same for the bull market coming out of the depression. It made such a lasting impression on traders that it took almost two decades for most to forget and move on.

      2. Spanky

        It really is. I think for a lot of us, we simply misjudged the power of CBs, at least in the short run. Money printing works. And it’s not as if the Fed didn’t tell us where the liquidity would flow.

        1. Gary Post author

          Deflation was never a serious consideration. The only question was where the inflation would flow to. CB’s made sure it flowed to global stock markets when they attacked the gold market in 2013 to prevent the inflation from getting into commodities.

    1. Gary Post author

      Iโ€™ve been saying all along that Armstrongโ€™s call that the economy turned down in 2015 was nonsense.

      The US and Europe both are starting to heat up again.

        1. Spanky

          The commodity complex is indisputably *directionally* correlated to the yen for the last at least 25 years. That’s been the trick and the absurdity of the whole situation. Of course commodities can outperform yen on the way up or down, but they will going in the same direction.

          As long as the BoJ prints more than the Fed, commodities aren’t going anywhere over the long run. Sure, over a few months you might get a divergence, but the major tops and bottoms in commodities have pretty much corresponded to major tops and bottoms in the yen, within a few months, for the last 25-30 years.

          1. Gary Post author

            Well I would suggest that since the yen and dollar move inversely to each other it’s more about the dollar going up pressuring commodities than commodities following the yen down.

          2. Christian

            I’ve been saying this for months now but you guys keep obsessing over the YEN. The US dollar IS the political bulldog in the world of finance and STILL the world’s reserve currency.

    2. Nada

      Noticed how they lowered the cons on NFP? How can it not beat 90k! Managed markets for sure. They think if markets stay at ATH, they can cheat the business cycle.

      1. Gary Post author

        I’ve been saying that since 2012.

        They figured out that they could control the business cycle and prevent a recession if they can keep the stock market elevated. You simply can’t have a recession if stocks are going up.

        Japan headed off a recession several years ago this way as well.

        The problem with this strategy is that it eventually leads to a bubble. And once the bubble pops there is no way to pump it back up. At that point more liquidity will only create commodity inflation.

  32. alvinheart

    Key level on Gold-Yen right here right now. If USD/Yen pushes above 112.9, then it will probably go higher, and gold will drop significant. If it gets pushed back, then we will have a mini run on gold and gdx.

    1. Nada

      Yep. Remember, you can using investing.com or the investing.com app. I like the app better – and both let you use filters. This way you can filter out economic data from countries that are not relevant.

    1. Nada

      Good trade. Its always wise to take profits on a gap up in miners as they love to fill their gap. Gold is a very annoying asset at bottoming and topping, so who knows when we bottom. NFP seems like likely place, but it may have already occurred.

      You going to keep the 1k GDX so the ANT is happy?

    1. Christian

      It might’ve been.. Exited ERY at breakeven but will look to short on another bounce up. Energy is due for a correction, I have no doubt about it.

      Managed to minimize the damage with my DUST trade but sold at a LOSS. Not proud of this one but Hey! At least I got in at the bottom — Just on the wrong freakin side of the trade, Lol!

      Agree with JJ, USLV looks poised for a bounce up. The risk vs reward is very favourable ๐Ÿ™‚ And holy F*ck tomorrow is the full moon.

  33. Lenapowich

    I make no claim to be a technical analyst but isn’t the fact that GDX has out performed gold in the last few days a bullish indication that more upside is on the way? My GDX position is now slightly profitable so I am pleased.

  34. Roy Batty

    Gary, you asked why anyone would transact with bitcoin.

    Thatโ€™s easy. 1) Take payment in bitcoin and immediately convert to the fiat or crypto of your choice to avoid BTC volatility. Likely that BTC or another crypto, or several, will stabilize in the future as the volume increases. 2) Bitcoin can be traded anonymously. 3) Bitcoin payment is irreversible. This is desirable for sellers. 4) Bitcoin fees are zero or tiny and 3% or more for most credit cards. 5) You can easily accomplish micro transactions due to very low fees, unlike other forms of centrally controlled payments.Such as 5 cents to read an article online. 6) More customers buying your goods and services, such as the unbanked. People off the grid or third worlders with no access to banking services. 80% of humans have no financial services available to them. 7) Many more reasons but this is enough for now.

  35. JJHarmen

    Gary, what makes you so sure that there will be no war with North Korea? This country rarely lets go of an opportunity to go to war. It’s just business to the psychopaths that are in control. If you haven’t watched the series The Vietnam War, do so and listen to the taped conversations of Presidents Johnson and Nixon discussing the slaughter of the Vietnamese and the loss of good American boys , as if human life was worth nothing. All they gave a shit about was their public image. Very disturbing. The exact same type of people are still in charge today.
    I

    1. vin

      I haven’t seen that post of Gary. But, if he says then I for one concur with him. These are just negotiating tactics. The president has scared both China and its ally. I think He wants to negotiate with NK directly without Chinese interference. It is very difficult to deal with nations like China or pakistan. They are like weasels. And, it looks like he has sidelined China up to some extent already.

      He is dealing with a very difficult situation, inaction or worse negligence of many decades. If he succeeds then I guess his next target will be the terror “state” of pakistan. Many don’t including most of the politicians do not understand what modern nuclear bombs are. Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombs were toys and people there are still suffering after more than 70 years.

      Whatever else he may the President is a very smart man and He WILL not go for a for war unless he is 100% sure that the situation is controllable i.e. nuclear bombs are not used.

      In if a large one detonates in NK itself it will certainly devastate SK, Japan and rest of the Asia, it will also have a very sever consequences for all including us.

  36. Jimsee

    listening to both sides on the war issus – I believe there will be no war by the odds, but a strategic strike of some sort is highly likely – will it escalate to war is the question – how can the US camoflauge a takedown of a nuclear site? or take out the ability to strike SK ?

    1. Nada

      That’s the thing – You cannot take out the ability to strike SK or Japan. Artillery shells alone is enough to deter, much less the 4 million NKs in arms. Even a surgical strike is off the table, population centers are too large. This is not the middle east where no one gives a shit.

      1. Nada

        Not trying to be argumentative – more curious. Please name these “technical advances” that could have a play here? Tomahawks are not going to do the trick. Look how ineffective the +90 were that hit Syria.

        EMP? Right, you are going to turn the lights off in NK without impacting China/SK? Lasers? Nah.. Smart bombs are all you got and thats not going to stop a counter attack.

        1. vin

          Nada, I agree that there won’t be a war. However, if it can be assured that NK won’t be able to detonate any nuclear device anywhere then the game changes.

          If it were to occur, then China will have to protect itself, it is their issue. Japan and SK will be given as much support as possible not only by the US, Europe but also other alles allies.

          You are right. There is will casualties. Do you know of any war where there were no casualties? But, without THE BOMBS it won’t be devastating.

          If the situation isn’t controlled now, it will be almost impossible to control a decade from now.

    1. roadrunner

      Common sense says the USA has almost always been at war. And it is at war now. And as long as the population stays complacent, the USA will never NOT be at war. To easy for the criminals running things to loot large booty’s of cash for themselves. At the peoples expense of course.

    2. ziasDad

      eh? We already have a war. No wait, check that… We already have several wars! Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Syria, US supporting the Saudi’s in their complete and utter destruction of Yemen. So hey, a few wars, what’s one or two more? The stock market will yawn and then skyrocket higher. Wars are good for profits.

  37. Roy Batty

    Gary,

    I hope you don’t mind me carrying over this debate from the pay side. Earlier Kopala posted this link:

    https://fee.org/articles/imf-head-predicts-the-end-of-banking-and-the-triumph-of-cryptocurrency/

    “IMF Head Foresees the End of Banking and the Triumph of Cryptocurrency”

    You said,
    “Iโ€™ll say it again. There is no way in hell governments are going to let the masses create their own currencies.

    And when anyone can create their own money then we will get inflation many times worse than anything a central bank would do.

    Governments canโ€™t control their natural desire to counterfeit money and get something for nothing.

    Do you really think the rest of humanity will be any better?

    Weโ€™re already seeing it. More and more cryptoโ€™s are springing up everyday. Whenever humanity thinks theyโ€™ve found a money tree the natural desire is to abuse it. Itโ€™s the recipe for bubbles.”

    My reply,

    Governments can’t stop it any more than they could stop people from exchanging files peer to peer. Check out Bit Torrent and the lead up to its creation. The only way to stop it is to shut down the internet … not going to happen. That’s why they will attempt to manipulate it.

    People creating their own money doesn’t lead to inflation. A monopoly on money creation leads to inflation. Check out the periods of history when private enterprises created their own money (bank notes before The Federal Reserve Act). When currencies must compete, and they should since this is supposed to be a free market system, inflationary currencies lose. Those privately created currencies of the past were backed by gold/silver and could be exchanged for such (gold and silver certificates).

    Bubbles don’t make certain assets illegitimate any more than the dot com bubble or the housing bubble made dot coms or real estate illegitimate.

    Don’t know if you realize this but 1) bitcoin is mined and the cost to mine it is usually more than it’s worth, 2) The supply of bitcoin is limited to 21 million.

    1. Spanky

      Bitcoin doesn’t satisfy Mises’s regression theorem, which is that real money must have barter value (i.e., intrinsic value above its value as a medium of exchange). The fact is, you can’t do anything with a bitcoin. It has zero utility in and of itself. Some have tried to argue that it does satisfy the regression theorem because it has value as a payment system. That seems like circular logic to me though.

      1. Roy Batty

        Marginal Utility is itself a circular concept. Money has high marginal utility and because of this it has high marginal utility. Mises was only thinking about regressing a day or two in dtermining todays value. BTC has that covered. If you need to see objective value then you can look at the processing energy needed to create it and the value of having chose to spend those resources elsewhere.. Proof of work as opposed to proof of stake. But even using proof of stake you can find objective value in hoarding.

        1. Spanky

          I still don’t get it. Gold doesn’t corrode, it’s extremely conductive, it is the most ductile of all metals (you can pound it so thin it becomes transparent), it is dense, etc etc. It has incredible industrial utility. What can I do with a bitcoin?

          1. Roy Batty

            I see great value in gold …. no disagreement there. But gold doesn’t have great industrial utility … otherwise it wouldn’t be such an almost perfect money. Silver has greater conductivity. Golds’ ductility is equal to platinums.

            You can store huge amounts of wealth safely and even in your head with bitcoin … just memorize a code. Gold needs to be stored in vaults with large fees and insurance … same with fiat, art, silver, exotic cars. You can instantly transfer, to anyone in the world with a connected smartphone, large sums of wealth without intermediaries, fees, and trust. You can conduct transactions, large and small, anonymously. You can conduct micro transactions online, say for 2 cents to read an article rather than put up with an irritating commercial. You can help bring down an oppressive system of banking/government cartels and allow the other 50% of the worlds adults, without financial services because the banks can’t make money off of them, to have access to easy inexpensive transactions and micro loans. You can receive payments irreversibly. It doesn’t corrode, it’s weightless, infinitely divisible, has no industrial value other than as money. I can keep going but this is enough to make the point.

          2. Spanky

            Again, bitcoins value boils down it its value as a medium of exchange only. I know about its obvious advantages over gold as a currency, but it’s absolutely not a store of value, because it has not value unless someone else is willing to accept it. That is not true of gold at all.

          3. Roy Batty

            Please inform all those who purchased bitcoin sub $12 that it’s not a good store of value. Even sub $500. Gold was also volatile in value long long ago. Still is really. One example:

            “A hurricane strikes the east coast of Florida, sinking 10 Spanish treasure ships and killing nearly 1,000 people, on this day in 1715. All of the gold and silver onboard at the time would not be recovered until 250 years later.”

            Spain and other regions suffered massive deflation and economic turmoil as the value of gold and silver fluctuated wildly.

          4. Roy Batty

            Ha, ha!

            Larry Summers? Now I’m worried. All these establishment types getting on board is worrisome. Can’t beat them join them?

    1. Spanky

      The miners are tough. You have to take the good with the bad.

      When you get 2-10x returns in 6 months, you better expect that that is going to be accompanied by some major risk to the downside or alternatively one hell of a long sideways consolidation. We are apparently getting the latter, although even that could be accompanied by a huge headfake before they head higher–see January 2016 for example.

      One stock I own, AXU went from .25 to 2.50 in about 7 months. It’s down about 40-50% since then and could go even lower before then proceeding to $5 or more. It has been going sideways in a range for over 12 months now. Not saying it will happen, but it could easily drop to the 200 WMA or even lower, before starting its next leg higher.

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AXU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p19824592971&a=548403660&listNum=1

  38. Sassybabe

    I am confident that silver is going much higher. It’s very cheap and inflation will eventually kick it up. Simple logic from a not very complicated woman. I have a lot of money riding on SLV but I do not fear further declines as I will buy more.

    1. Nada

      Wait a minute.. Is this a shill account for bigdaddy? That language is very close, ha! Ped got a week off with pay and now his good name is being dragged through the mud ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. JJHarmen

        LOL! Sassybabe thinks Bigdaddy is some kind of investor genius (that’s debatable) but I don’t think they are connected. Lena P. who once said she and Sassy they work in the same building in the Chicago area. Maybe she can confirm that. Bigdaddy lives somewhere in Alberta, Canada.

    2. Spanky

      People have been saying that exact same thing since 2011. Timing is everything. You could be right, and we are about to rise to new heights, but you could be wrong too. I’ve held bullion since 2001. I’ve held mining stock on and off since then and have held since mid 2015. I have no idea at this point when the next leg up begins in ernest (I’m talking about a massive run, not a piddling 20-30% rally).

  39. Sassybabe

    My immediate concern is that Pedestrian is also long the miners (unless he bailed already… I hope). Bigdaddy wisely said that one should always do the opposite of that man so more downside may be in the works for the miners.

  40. Goild

    The situation has not changed yet, they continue pulling up the SM.
    It will turn out to be the biggest scam in SM history.
    Gold will hit at least $1260, I think.

  41. MagnuM

    My dear Shopify (SHOP.TO) is crashing today because some “well-known short-seller” started trash-talking it today.

    Honestly, how the hell is that allowed? I bet he had a position set ahead of time before making those comments. How is that any different from stock pump-n-dump operations (which are illegal?)

    Is there no more rule of law anymore?

    1. Nada

      I traded this thing when it was around 22 dollars. I remember holding through one particular ER and it shot up about 8 dollars. I was holding 1k shares at that time and sold. Boy, only if I had the insight to lit it sit there for 2 years.

    1. Spanky

      Hope you are right. I remember seeing lots of these during the bear though. “Just a back test”, and it ended up either breaking back below the trendline eventually, or just crawling along the trendline for ages (not even a bounce).

    1. victor

      Spanky, I don’t understand why you’re hunting for this dozen drilled holes in the ground and couple broken tractors on site when there’s plenty good or about to metal producers…?

    1. Bluebellkid

      Sell it and buy some KL if you have to own a miner. KL is a new issue forming a NI base – the pivot point is 13.84. 96 fund managers have added this one to their portfolio since the Dec. qtr. 15 fund managers have unloaded EXK during the same time period.

  42. Troy

    Going in for some UWT today with a limit order for 14.75. I think we’ll either hit our HCL today or tomorrow, after which I’d add more. It already tagged its 50 day but I think USO, UCO and OIL will also tag theirs. I sold 2/3 of my energy positions(UWT,ERX and GUSH) when Gary converted his ERX to XLE. I think its time to get fully back in for the ride to $60+ crude.
    Maybe Yellen will help?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UWT&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p59075007217

    p.s. Half of my funds are tied up in TQQQ, so a little frustrated there, but I have patience.

  43. JJHarmen

    I am seeing more and more articles about the coming melt up in the SM. Gary is on board as well as Martin Armstrong. It seems that this has become a ‘must happen’ event.

  44. Roy Batty

    As difficult as it is to believe it seems the shooter(s) in Vegas were able to mow down innocent people for 72 minutes straight without any interference from our “heroes” in law enforcement. The sheriff is elected. Joe Lombardo, and others responsible for protecting civilians in the Metro area, should be fired when the dust settles.

    1. Nada

      While it took 75 minutes to respond, I believe the gunmen fired for around 12 minutes. The way I heard the police tell it, they were on his floor in 12 minutes and firing had stopped, so they cleared the entire floor before entry – which took a total of 75 minutes.

      Lots of questions for sure.

  45. zkotpen

    Roy Batty,

    Your comments on the cryptocurrencies are very interesting (though your comments on news are more appropriate on a news discussion blog).

    I will give the cryptocurrencies more consideration in coming days.

    Also, as a wanderer and expat, I can assure you, financial access is pure hell, especially the past two years, during which the most recent year the hellish trend has gone purely parabolic. After long phone discussions with eTrade, PayPal, and Skrill, in which I tried to figure out why their customer service has gone the way of the airlines: Paramilitary, I’ve come to conclude the US Government is behind all the mischief. They are busting the chops of the financial players, who pass it along to customers, especially those outside the empire. If you are a good little boy or girl who goes to and from your home of record every day and behaves like a proper subject, you may not have felt the effects so much (or you may have, since it has been quite a while since I behaved according to the governmental schematic). Otherwise, financial services are absolutely paramilitary.

    So you can imagine the relief I feel given my attitude of a scientist:

    What if this really does work like you say?

    Very interesting indeed!

  46. JJHarmen

    Across the board new records in just about all SM indexes. Great stuff for the longs. Better yet, GDX out performed the SM today. Sorry Sassy, but it just wasn’t a good day for silver. Maybe tomorrow. I am out of here.

  47. Roy Batty

    Americans are pariahs when it comes to conducting financial business, especially globally. They aren’t allowed to even open bank accounts in other countries for fear of the wrath of Uncle Sam and his International Monetary System. Only allowed to purchase BTC on government approved U.S. based exchanges. Of course you can still buy it from an individual P2P from anywhere in the world.

    1. Nada

      Yep, you are sure right. The FIFO rule in futures is a bunch of BS as you can not hedge properly. You have to either open up an options future contract to compensate or ETF and be restricted to cash open.

      Not being able to trade spot gold is a pain, because no foreign broker will accept an American. You can try your luck on an island nation, but good luck getting your money out. Dodd-Frank act needs be repealed!

    2. roadrunner

      @Roy, Nada. There are no laws from the US government that prevent an American from opening a foreign bank account. The citizen (and legal resident) must inform the IRS if one or more accounts contain !0 K or more. That is cumulative, So three 3 foreign accounts of 4k each would require the individual to file a FBAR with the IRS. any foreign Bank that does business in the USA MUST report all US citizens holdings. Because of this law ( the whole swiss banking fiasco from a few years ago, where the Swiss banks turned over all info on American citizens to IRS), foreign bank are reluctant to open accounts for Americans unless the bank has no issues complying with American law. many foreign banks don’t want the hassle.

      1. roadrunner

        P.S. The USA is one of, if not the only western country, that tax’s its citizens and legal residents on worldwide income, even if you do not live in the USA. Resistence is futile! LOL

      2. Roy Batty

        Yes, no laws against foreign bank accounts but they’ve effectively accomplished it because no foreign banks want U.S. customers. Not even people who are not U.S. citizens but were born in the U.S.. Too much paperwork and risk!

  48. zkotpen

    Roy Batty,

    Yes, pariahs indeed. You gotta go rogue ๐Ÿ˜‰

    Hard to disguise it, if you follow the bloodlines from Troy, to Rome, to England, to North America.

    Aeneus -> Romulus & Remus; Brutus -> William -> James -> George -> Uncle Sam

    Diana -> Atalanta -> Lady Di -> Wonder Woman

    1. zkotpen

      And when I agree with Roy Batty about US’ers as pariahs, I’m not talking conceptually. This is based on actual experience. eTrade locked me out of my account for a week because they didn’t like my ISP. Had to call them on the phone every time I wanted to log in.

      Finally, I called them in the middle of the night, got someone in the Philippines, where they happen to run their security from, and they figured out what was going on, and came up with and executed a solution: They sent me a key-code device FedEx (no Statesian did that for me!). Even so, I can’t log in from my ISP, rather, I need to buy additional internet, only for the purpose of the two Statesian financial institutions I use: eTrade and PayPal.

      The global players are much more straightforward, though they still put up hurdles and road blocks for Statesians. When I repeatedly asked Skrill why they did this, they just replied robotically, “regulations” interspersed with “for your security”. Eventually, I finally asked them if said “regulations” were coming from the US government, and they said yes, they were specific to their US customers.

      And that was the epiphany. The global players deal with it the best they can; the Statesians are more complacent and even righteous about their paramilitary roles.

      1. zkotpen

        So in that context, bitcoin and cryptocurrencies make a ton of sense, to somehow squirm out of the extreme, severe, iron-fisted grasp of US government regulation. And as Roy Batty points out, not necessarily for criminals, but rather just for regular folks who suddenly find the floor sawed out from underneath them by their financial “services”, leaving them to fall into an abyss, with a blythe smile on their lips!

    1. zkotpen

      No — avoid that stuff like the plague!

      I’ve got a friend in California who keeps sending me these emails:

      “Yo… bitcoin!!!”

      “You get bitcoin yet?”

      And a photo of an astronaut on the moon, next to the bitcoin flag they planted there.

      Not sure what to make of his emails — seems like a lot of complexity to add to my life.

      But your explanations give it context.

      diazepam? you ask.

      As an expat, I only need that stuff for immigration and dealing with an unexpected wallop from the financial services industry “for [my] security”.

      Bitcoin could be a suitable, healthier alternative — I will collect my thoughts, sleep on it, and give it consideration in that light.

      At the moment, it simply feels like a breath of fresh air.

  49. zkotpen

    GDX could be in wave B of D of triangle begun in December, 2016. I have been monitoring this move down in miners as a potential wave D of triangle since the September peak, wave C, did not exceed February’s, wave A. So far, that’s how it’s playing out. Yearly volatility in GDX has gone from low and stable to decreasing since “tantamount to war” day, and it shouldn’t get out of hand at all if this rally is wave B of D, until wave C of D to complete the move down — perhaps next week.

    When I say yearly volatility shouldn’t get out of hand, I mean GDX staying close to its 200 day SMA. Intermediate GDX did not quite reach oversold this week, and yearly GDX is far from oversold — the latter is more toward the overbought side of the spectrum, as the yearly decline in miners has not yet begun. I’m not sure if the same is true for gold. Gold and GDX are moving in the same general direction, but their moves will continue to seem disjointed at times because they are in different patterns.

  50. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “Well I would suggest that since the yen and dollar move inversely to each other”

    They sometimes do, but this is not an accurate characterization overall.

    For 2017, for instance, the dollar has been moving down in its cycle decline. You could definitely say the EUR and USD have been moving about 98-99% inversely to each other, but not the JPY. The Yen has tried to remain the weakest currency on the block. The Euro has been strong all year, the pound somewhat strong, the loonie dormant, then suddenly waking up from a long Canadian winter, just in time for the next one to come along, the dollar weak, and the Yen just kinda limping along, with gold slightly stronger than the Yen, except when it’s not.

  51. palobar

    The September inflection point that was mentioned well in advance in the July discussions is behind us and we are approaching the first of the two strong turning points for October. I had previously mentioned the 10th of October but I omitted to mention the 8th which is equally important, thus making 8-10 the first strong timing window. However, the 8th falls on Sunday. Also, by experience, highs or lows can fall off one-two days. Therefore, the time window between 6-11 most likely will provide the first meaningful swing point after the high we saw in September. Either the ”8-10” or the ”20-23” October should provide a nice LONG trading opportunity. Nevertheless, making a low here (instead of a high) suggests that we are NOT yet in a bull market. The possibility of seeing one more sharp decline later is still on the table.

    1. palobar

      @jake
      You are right my friend. Hopefully, the coming up and down swings will help you see the market with a more clear eye and appreciation of what others think.

  52. Goild

    If indeed there is an ongoing inverse love relation between Yen and Nikkei, then Yen should go lower, as Nikkei is in bed with US SM. And if Yen and Gold keep sleeping together, then GOLD is going down.
    I think I have a glass of wine ๐Ÿ™‚
    May be two.
    Behind the scenes it is $UST2Y the one who controls the SM sex relationships.
    Oh, please lecturing me on this one.
    I have not hear of any bond expert yet.

  53. roadrunner

    Just as an FYI to the Bitcoin/crypto currency holders that are required to file US income tax. Per the IRS
    You are required to decalre all capital gains and will be taxed at the 40% rate. Your Crypto broker is required to provide account statement on all US persons,

    And it gets better if the government has its way, and in this case most likely will be successful. the senate has a bill right now requiring Homeland Security to have a policy in place by end of 2018 dealing with crypto and other digital type prepaid currency.
    https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-congress/senate-bill/1241/text

    important highlights.
    The magic number in all this is $10,000. Itโ€™s not an ACTUAL $10,000. It can also be a suspected or potential $10,000. It can also be an appraised $10,000 as well as a cumulative $10,000 over time and assets. Hereโ€™s what is being targeted:

    Blank checks
    Cash
    Comingled and aggregated funds
    Prepaid access devices, digital currencies, or other similar instruments

    #4 is defined as: โ€œโ€˜prepaid access deviceโ€™ means an electronic device or vehicle, such as a card, plate, code, number, electronic serial number, mobile identification number, personal identification number, or other instrument, that provides a portal to funds or the value of funds that have been paid in advance and can be retrievable and transferable at some point in the future.โ€

    https://globalwealthprotection.com/war-currency-continues-cash-cryptocurrency/

    “An Eye Is Upon You”

    spinning complacently in the darkness covered and blinded by a blanket of little lives,
    false security has lulled the madness of this world into a slumber, wake up!!
    an eye is upon you, staring straight down and keenly through,
    seeing all that you are and everything that you will never be.
    yes, and eye is upon you, and eye ready to blink.
    so face forward, with arms wide open and mind reeling.
    Your future has arrived …
    are you ready to go?

  54. jacob2

    Gold, changed my mind. For the first rime in a long time going to buy some PM miners manana. Cycles or no cycles the swing low and the full moon gets my vote.

  55. zkotpen

    palobar,

    “Either the โ€8-10โ€ or the โ€20-23โ€ October should provide a nice LONG trading opportunity. Nevertheless, making a low here (instead of a high) suggests that we are NOT yet in a bull market. The possibility of seeing one more sharp decline later is still on the table.”

    I appreciate your timing calculations and always keep them in mind while I work to improve my own timing results. I’ve been learning patterns and math as they apply to trading since 2013. These are extremely useful in tracking the cycles as they move into tops and bottoms. They are also useful in timing, but it’s taking a while to solve that puzzle.

    Why do you use “either… or” in your October scenario?

    Like why not both?

  56. Jimsee

    palobar – this configuration lines up with cycle well – I appreciate the date help. ‘we have clearly elected some bearish (gold) patterns since sep 14. However that jul10 is actually ‘generational’ level confluence.

  57. Goild

    My crystal ball tells me that by far, very far, the likelihood of GOLD continuing diving is very high.
    So I will wait for GOLD to come down more before I start building my lots for the way up later in December.

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