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At the 9:28 mark I meant to say “clearly it is starting in the fall of 2017”. Not 2018.
THe precious metal sector will find its ICL bottom in Dec?
Late November or early December. The December FOMC meeting is a prime target zone.
You say Gold will bottom in December near 1200, that will set the stage for 1400. However, will 1200 be the final low and start a major bull market move in PMs? In your estimation, when will the vertical phase begin in the PM sector? Thank you.
The final low in gold occurred back in December 2015. We’ve already started a major bull market. We are however still stuck in a basing pattern.
I do think once gold forms an intermediate cycle low, probably in December, then we will start the adolescent phase of this bull market in earnest and the next intermediate cycle will at least reach 1400. However the adolescent and maturing phase of a bull market can last several years so don’t expect a vertical phase in gold for at least four or five years yet.
I guess the contest is pretty easy at this point. Buy the SM and don’t sell until the contest is finished.
It should be easy, but virtually no one is doing it.
So many people (desertsun) kept telling me that my currency predictions were always faulty, but I was absolutely correct when I pointed out the major resistant zone at 120 in the euro and said we would need an intermediate degree correction before price could break through that level. Even last week they were still trying to call a bottom in the euro and a top in the dollar but the euro needs to drop far enough for the weekly stochastics to at least get oversold before bouncing. I warned everyone that an intermediate degree countertrend move would take at least 8 to 10 weeks to play out. Well we are now on week seven and we probably still have 3 to 5 weeks to go.
Do you remember the prediction that the Canadian dollar was foretelling that oil was going to fall?
I’ve been saying all along that this daily cycle was going to rally at least to the $53-$55 level before pulling back, and the larger intermediate cycle wouldn’t top until $60.
Do you remember a couple of months ago when all the gold bugs were telling us that gold was just getting started and that I was foolish for selling miners and buying the stock market?
I picked the top of the intermediate gold rally within pennies, and while everyone else remained in denial we’ve actually made some pretty good money on the short side. And as I tried to warn people, buying long during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle is a poor strategy that will only cost you money over the life of your trading career. Only two people in the challenge managed to make any money at all during that October rally, and one of the two was an insignificant gain. Everyone else has just whittled away some of the gains they made on the rally out of the July low. Many have put serious dents in their earlier profits.
Oh, cut it out Gary! We all know who the real winner is — Lunch Money Goild 🙂
Lol, Gary sure loves to too his own horn.
Hye gary, what is your ICL target for gold?
I don’t have a price target, I have a timing band target.
You hv no benchmark if no price target. General band timing is notbenchmark imo.
That is of course complete nonsense.
I will buy when gold gets into the timing band for a bottom and when sentiment gets extreme.
Targets are meaningless. I could say I have a target of $1200. But if gold were to get to $1200 early in November then that target would be too high. It would still be too early to buy.
This is an example of how clueless retail traders trade.
As I’ve shown over and over it’s a poor strategy.
Remember all the predictions for a market crash in September and October? Remember everyone pointing to the small caps underperformance as proof that the market was topping? I remember many calling for a 10-20% correction as we started the August ICL. We dropped 3%.
All the while I kept warning that the market was setting up for a vertical phase and a parabolic blowoff top.
10,000 in 6 to 8 months is very likely.
What would be the time frame to hit 20,000 from that point?
If we have a buying panic proportional to the selling panic that happened at the bottom in 2009 I don’t think it would be unreasonable for the market to go from 10,000 to 20,000 during the final 2 to 3 months.
Lol, total nonsense. Wild predictions, saying markets are going to double their value in 2-3 months. You are selling hopium.
So, looks like “sell in May and go away” is going to be real in 2018. Now, the biggest tack is to hold and do not sell those big profits somewhere in a middle…
I’m riding SM up with inverted VIX, nice profit in total with core holding but those portion where I try to sell and buy cheaper is showing smaller gain (abt 40% less) in total, so better sit tight and at spring time when we start hear in the news how profitable is to be in a stock market – start selling. But, only time will tell…
Excellent video Gary. Question. I took positions
in UDOW & TQQQ last month. Doing very well
thank you very much. Looking to add to those
positions. Which position would you add more
to, or does it really matter? Thanks!
I like both. They have been going back and forth. One outperforming for a while and then the other.
This post reminds me of Gary’s posts below calling for a vertical bubble phase in gold to have already happened by now.
How did that work out? LOL
Check out Gary’s predictions for the $DXY, $SPY and $CRB in that link too. LOL x 10
Also, note that Gary has been saying that he thinks the bubble phase in gold is 4-5 years out for at least the past two years. I guess if you keep extending the 4-5 year prediction every year, maybe someday it will happen.
You’re not wrong but it’s not another one of those ‘jerk off’ moves. Every A**hole on earth can trade (and criticize) in hindsight, and believe me there’s already plenty on this blog.
Today, that A**Hole is you..
Folks, you trade based on the information that is available to you RIGHT NOW.. and yes, your analysis will change and/or evolve as the landscape changes. Nothing is ever set in stone and one has to switch gears relatively quick if one is to survive in these die hard/take no prisoners type of markets.
Gary can sometimes be a pain in the behind with his constant rhetoric but his perspective is paramount and he has made some great calls. Give credit where credit is due instead of being the Sunday morning jerk off that you are 🙂
Thank you — off to the brunch!
Thank you for posting it, But what does it really accomplish? If you are pointing out that he hasn’t been always correct then can you name ONE respectable analyst who has been always correct? Market has a way of humbling great ones.
I myself have pointed out that Gary has been wrong. I bought jnug at 44+ (after reverse split numbers) because he said that it will go to 2000+ (again, after reverse split numbers). But, that doesn’t mean that he is not a great analyst. It can still go there. In fact he did say that it will happen during the next gold BUll phase. Many times his timing has not been exact but his record is excellent. His present call on SM is incredible. I was skeptical and I expressed my feelings on this blog.
I would have never invested in this market because to me it is overvalued. I followed his advise more as a gamble than anything else. And, so far it has been great. Not only that now, based on trading, it is obvious that it is headed up. 10,000 on nasdaq does not look far fetched like a couple of months of ago.
Not only he has predicted it correctly, he has done it with great confidence. Let us ride this bull and make some money. And, let us be thankful to him for this blog. I am. Best of investing.
Gary, you are such a liar that it takes my breath away. We are argued for weeks on the direction of the $USD
months ago. My position was that the dollar was going to the 92 region and the commercial shorts needed to go a net long position to be in line with the other 3yr cycle low bounces. You were completely wrong and you know it. I f**king dare you to bring up that previous blog conversation. I can see now why Kitco bounced you from their website. You are one piece of work asswipe. Any respect that I had for you just went right out the window.
No need to attack Gary – he has had some good calls
Let’s be fair, Gary attacked him first. However, no need for the profanity.
Gary’s calls are excellent in general…
This is a copy of a post from Gary’s blog in June titled THE DOLLAR RALLY MAY LAST A COUPLE OF MONTHS;
June 2, 2017 at 6:24 am
Ed, Based on your dollar comments we are looking at the same thing. The dollar has broken down on the long term charts and 92 seems like a reasonable target. The million dollar question is………….When is the 3yr cycle going to bottom? It seems Gary has reversed direction again with Wednesday’s video and thinks the cycle is going to bounce right on time which is about now. The problem with that is the $USD COT commercial long data does not support that argument. It suggests that the 3yr cycle might be late which is where your 92 target becomes a real possibility. As of the end of last month the dollar has broken below 3 different technical supports on the long term charts. The COT longs on the $CAD are at multi-decade record long positions. Those are just some items to add to your list. The 3yr cycle is going to involve a multi-month bounce which would fit right in with a head & shoulders right shoulder bounce at 92.50. If we bounce here then we could possibly be looking at an attempted double top in the dollar. Gary pointed out a number things in his video that help support his case along with his ICL criteria. I think the prudent thing to do if a person is sitting in a all cash position is to start averaging in here. I have hit two home runs in silver by getting out around 18.60 in April and then getting back in within pennies of the lows of May with a full position. I have taken half that off the table based on Gary’s ICL criteria. At some points in the market it is best to start taking a longer term focus and I think we are at one of those points. Its great to swing for the fences on every pitch but the guy that goes for the base hit or double is the guy that’s going to get paid.
There were many other posts other than this one but I really don’t feel the need to show you how full of shit you really are.
desertsun999 Any constructive comment you might have tried to make in your post was lost when you broke down into your insults and foul language. You seem to be only a person that lost money in the market and looking for someone to blame. If you lost money on a blog it is only your fault. Grow up and take some ownership for you won trades and actions.
Sorry guys but this type insult needed a response. Is Garry always tight? No!!! No One is. But I have no doubt he is telling you what he thinks the market will do and has his own money is invested on that projection. I have never seen Gary post it is time to buy, but selling short to make money by misleading others in the wrong direction like I have seen others do. He has been a valuable asset to my trading. I have lost on some of his projections but it is usually because i did not have the patient to wait to buy or sell at the top of the swing. Is that Gary’s Fault or mine? I know it is mine as I control my investment decisions not Gary.
To be fair, Gary’s portfolios are not real money. They are virtual. I am sure he will chime in and say he has never had so much of his own money invested in the markets, but the reality is, his calls for subscriber side are paper money.
No one is saying Gary is a bad guy. I think he makes wild predictions and has a proven track record of it, but that does not make him evil. He is generating traffic to his sites, he is a capitalist- so what.
You like to claim that the portfolios are not real money but that of course is complete nonsense. I expect my subscribers are betting their hard earned savings on those calls, I’m betting my money on those calls as well, so I would not make them unless I thought they were going to pan out. Quite the opposite, there is a lot of real money on all of those calls.
The challenge is paper money. None of you are making calls with the expectation that other people might lose their life savings on your calls. You are simply trying to win the challenge and there are no consequences if a long shot trade loses everything.
And of course I am not selling hopium. I have studied bull markets for a big portion of my adult life, I know exactly how they behave, and especially how bubbles behave.
Central banks have been reacting predictably to recessions and bear markets for many years now and their monetary actions are creating bubbles. Bubbles have common characteristics. One of those characteristics is that they often rally 100% or more during the final few months of the bubble. During the initial stages of a bubble that seems impossible but we are already witnessing it in bitcoin, it has rallied more than 500% in just a few months. It is exhibiting the signs of a bubble, and sentiment has become wildly bullish.
I have also studied human behavior as it relates to markets, and I can say with 100% accuracy that human nature never changes. So of course at the beginning of a bubble everyone grossly underestimates how far it’s going to go. Almost no one rides the beginning phase because they don’t believe the market can go up. During the start of the vertical phase most traders try to pick tops and short the market instead of riding the trend, and only towards the very end of the bubble does everyone start to pile in (bitcoin, Avi Gilbert, Frank Holmes, Doug Casey). These are common human characteristics that never change, and they are not going to change during this bubble either.
I will enter the challenge. Please put $50K paper money in UVXY.
The party is about over, or is over, the bandwagon is reaching the top, the old turkeys have left the party.
It would be wise to put the hard earned money under the mattress rather than in the SM.
Goild, you will have to send the trade via e-mail, in real time, (when the markets are open) with the percentage of your portfolio (sounds like 50%) and an actual price which can be verified, within one minute of the price being accomplished.
I would caution you that one person has already seriously damage their portfolio trying to trade these vix etf’s. So I would keep position sizes small.
Or you could just short UVXY and hold indefinitely.
Goild, I know you are an excellent day trades and you have this sense when to get out. So, I am sure will limit your loss if things don’t work out. But, if you are actually using your money to buy it, please careful. I wish you well whatever you do.
Lol someone just can’t admit when they were wrong and I was right.
Bottom line: the proof is in the portfolio gains or losses. I’m up significantly in both the metals and metal portfolio and desert is not.
This is exactly why I started the portfolios to put an end to this kind of BS.
Yea, go ahead and try to divert the attention away from the lies above. I have not even been trading in your challenge. You want people to believe this is something other than you just fabricating whatever suits you to try and drum up subscribers. Are times getting that tough bud?
Apparently you haven’t been paying attention. I haven’t missed a market call in a long time. And our “real time” portfolios are making steady gains. Does that sound like tough times to you?
If you really want to prove you’re a better trader than Gary enter the contest, post your tradestation and prove your point.
Otherwise you’re just doing a lot of taking out your ass pointing out somebody else’s mistakes with zero evidence that you can do any better.
Nice to hear from you. How are you doing?
Still bullish on the miners?
Yes Goild but I am a old turkey holder. I am willing to take the pullbacks and not even look at them. 3 Years from now I might want to sell and take the nice profits. Gary is right on the metals so if you day trade them good luck but I am a old turkey holder.
UVXY is at $15.62 as of Friday Oct 27th.
Pick your best price on Monday and send it in to Gary by e-mail within one minute. Welcome to the challenge!
OK, tomorrow at the premarket I will chose an entry price for UVXY.
I will likely get 500 UVXY shares with real money, and OK 2000 shares of UVXY with paper money.
out of 2000, 500 shares will be left after future 1:4 split. I think your 5min trades is a safest way to trade with this crazy market, Bite and Out – I would call it. But, it’s a paper trade anyway…
p.s. split is not declared yet, but it will be…
I concur, the metals will see their day.
One needs to be onboard because the move will likely be swift and relentless.
So many people keep holding on to that belief, but the adolescent and maturing phase of a bull market is anything but swift and relentless. It is three steps up, two steps back. An indecisive grind for years before the bubble phase (swift and relentless) appears.
Nobody is going to get left at the station in the metals market for a long time yet. There are only two times where a trader can get left at the station. One is the baby bull, which has already occurred, and the other is the bubble phase, which is occurring in the stock market right now.
Gary, RonL thinks that one day the miners will go up. That is almost given. Isn’t it?
I guess you are commenting on “the move will likely be swift and relentless”. One day that will happen as well and you seem to agree with that.
There is a difference between investing and gambling. Most on this blog pretend to be investors while they gamble. While RonL seems to be a real investor. I totally concur with him because miners are cheap. Some of the small caps, specially Canadian and Australian are very cheap. That does not mean they cannot become cheaper.
The entire metals sector bottomed in December 2015, or January 2016 for the miners. I don’t think the sector is going back below those levels. However they are stuck in a basing phase right now, which means they’re taking two steps up and two steps back. They’re just not really making any headway now that the baby bull phase is over. They will eventually, but I think we need to get past the bubble phase in the stock market. Realistically, institutional money is not going to flow aggressively into the metals sector as long as stocks keep producing easy gains.
However as the bubble phase in stocks matures, sophisticated investors will start to take profits on their stock positions and allocate some of that money into the metals sector in anticipation of what will occur when the stock market bubble pops. And we all know what that is: Central banks will start printing more money again. This time instead of it flowing into the stock market it’s probably going to flow into the commodity markets and focus aggressively in the precious metals market. There will be some smart money investors that will start to anticipate that as we get closer and closer to the top of the bubble in the stock market. That is what will drive the adolescent and maturing phase of the gold bull market. But first we need to escape this basing pattern that we’ve been in all year.
Thank you for the detailed explanation.
RonL has an excellent point: Gary appears, and no reason not to think otherwise, to truly believe on what he says. As per below, I issued to him a challenge on August 26th which he immediately took, reflecting 1:1 saying with truly believing.
1. Reply ↓
2. Goild August 26, 2017 at 9:50 am
Let us see.
I bet you $1000 that the SM or Nasdaq will not double a year from now.
Would you take the challenge?
1. Gary Post authorAugust 26, 2017 at 10:04 am
I’ll take that bet in a second. Let’s make the bet Nasdaq 10,000 by this time next year.
1. victor August 26, 2017 at 10:14 am
Gary that’s a damn smart move to increase sign up’s with such a confidence. You should write a book when retire….
3. Goild August 26, 2017 at 10:16 am
OK, I commit to it. Today is August 26, 2017.
low rate mean silly money
Low rates for too long means bubbles 🙂
Gary. low rates achieved through proper channel are good for economy. It is the way these low rates have been achieved, by injecting liquidity. In other words, it is not the low rates that is the issue. It is the monopoly money that is running amuk.
Injection of liquidity has created distortions. Those who have it can have more at incredibly cheap rate. And, those who don’t have, have to pay VERY high interest rates, e.g., credit cards, corner “money marts” stroes etc. Percentage of people who are paying the price for this experiment are increasing.
That is Gold To Monetary Base Ratio
Why can’t gold go $50000/ounce (or even more)?
Desert is a dreamer. Can’t differentiate realities with his fantasies.
When a comparison of GLD and XAU for September 2014 to date is done, it can be seen that the few times the miners lag GLD have been followed by a quick recovery. Hence, and if gold climbs, we should expect a swift miners recovery, and if in addition Gold has fuel, then it will be relentless.
There have only two occasions in that period where the miners have lagged gold, September 2015 and now.
I believe is erroneous to think that the miners lead gold. If the miners have their own problems that means gold should be more expensive because the miners cannot produce their normal output. If gold fares better then the miners will follow, if gold does poorly that definitely hurts the miners. Gold is leading.
The miners and gold should be closing their gap in about two weeks.
The dollar is going to continue rallying, because the euro has to complete a failed daily cycle. It still has 3-5 weeks before bottoming. Gold is going to also confirm a failed cycle by moving below the Oct. low. That’s what happens during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle.
Gold will turn and go back up once the dollar tops and begins the bear market in earnest and not before no matter how badly the gold bugs want it too.
The longer traders remain in denial the more profits they are going to lose trying to fight the ICL decline.
It is not cast in stone that gold will continue down.
The possibility of a double bottom is standing.
That possibility is less than 1% because its way too early in the cycle for a bottom.
Traders are always looking for double bottoms or double tops. They are rare and only occur when the setup materializes very late in a cycle.
If a bottom is tested early in a cycle there is virtually no chance of a double bottom and one can almost bet the farm that support will ultimately be broken. That is the case now with gold.
Sure fire timing model for gold bottom bitcoin top. Rats deserting the ship ? Interesting to watch, Frank Holmes, Avi, and now Doug Casey …. bitcoin bulls. Whose next Eric Sprott. Awaiting 321 Bitcoin and Smart Bitcoin Tracker. Ha!
Even though Stephen Leeb and Gerald Celente are bullish gold in the long term, they do admit that it could go down 100 to 150 dollars in the short term. That is their maximum downside risk.
Gerald celente clown missed this entire stock market bull run. Claiming market crashes like a broken recorder. Why would anyone wanna listen to him. Might as well listen to your baby or your car and dogs for what to buy and sell
Hey! Don’t knock my favorite market guru! 😎
I wonder if Kim Jong Un will have a surprise for Trump when he visits SK this week. Seems like a perfect time to test a missile. The buildup of US forces in the last two weeks, anticipating Trumps visit, must not be sitting well with mighty Kim.
You like to claim that the portfolios are not real money but that of course is complete nonsense. I expect my subscribers are betting their hard earned savings on those calls, I’m betting my money on those calls as well, so I would not make them unless I thought they were going to pan out. Quite the opposite, there is a lot of real money on all of those calls.
It does not matter what subscribers are doing, the fact remains they are paper. Tell me I am wrong. You can’t, because you knmow it’s 100% fact. It’s not the end of the world and most already know this, at least have the balls to admit.
You are wrong.
I am not wrong and you have already stated that the portfolios are not real, so I am not sure why you are trying to debate me. Do you release broker statements on your trades? Of course you do not. Why? Because you don’t make the trades.
You have stated plenty of times in the past you use riskier assets vs what you recommend in the model portfolio. The fact remains the model portfolio is a paper account and you can not get around that undeniable fact.
I am not sure why this is so upsetting to you. It’s simply a truth and does not reflect on you in a negative way, but at least have the humility to admit.
The only one that appears to be upset is you.
Lol, ok I think we beat this topic to death. Next.
No offence Gary but Nada isn’t wrong. The SMT portfolio is in fact made of paper. It would be a completely different story if you were trading $100,000 of your OWN money in front of the world to see.
But somehow you always manage to divert from the truth with this statement:
“I expect my subscribers are betting their hard earned savings on those calls, I’m betting my money on those calls as well..”
I am trading my own money.
Thanks Gary, good trading to all…
If anyone with brains cant see that Gary is mostly right recently, and for quite a long time, they deserve to be group together with those cats, dogs, cockroaches, rats etc, with pea brains. So, just ignore those parasites. lol. Oops, its a flattery to group them with the cats, dogs, roaches and rats. Cos these animals and parasites are smarter.
what are you talking about?
whatever, Gary’s calls have been spot on
Anyway, made big profits on ndx. Should have heeded garys advice in oct, not to short. Tried twice and lost a chuck of profits. Dont know how low is PMs and gdx going to go. Decided to buy back some again. Gary is cock sure that they have quite some more to drop. Not too sure about that. Decided to buy 30% first. Aint averaging down if worsen.
What the hell are you watching in your other tabs?
Loaded 200 shares of UVXY:
UVXY FILLED AT $15.7653 Market Buy 200 at Market Day 09:43:24 AM 10/30/2017
And enter the challenged with 1000 UVXY shares at $15.7653.
You know the rules for the challenge. Follow them.
rules of the challenge are no day trading, right? Goild is a day trader. So how’s that gonna work? Gary, why do you limit the challenge to no day trading? Goild makes money day trading, so why not open it up to day trading, so he can prove to you that he’s not the liar that you have said he is?
Goild, you have to email Gary your entry exits. You also know, no day trading is allowed.
I got rid of 500 JNUG shares and 500 NUGT shares to currently hold:
1500 JNUG shares
500 NUGT shares
2000 GDX shares.
Thanks Gary. The day is shaping up to be a nice one. Even labu is up. Amen!
My guess here is the miners (seniors / juniors) just made a swing low coming off ICL. I know no one is going to agree with that statement, but it has been written.
Just because it’s been written doesn’t make it true, Lol!
Yes sir, you are correct about that! I think my odds are about 99.9% of being correct 🙂
We can’t have an ICL until gold completes at least one failed daily cycle.
MIners have already done that, so yes they can have their ICL 🙂
So far my call on ERX is working out after this morning’ swing low confirmation.
Let’s see if this baby can close above the 10DMA as well as the 200DMA 🙂
But it’s just a paper trade so it doesn’t count….
See how that works? 🙂
You’re absolutely right and that’s why I don’t ever include the number of shares or my portfolio percentage because I could be full of beans and making shit up.. BUT I’m also not charging anyone for a subscription.
The bottom line is this: It’s all about credibility. If you’re running a business, then it just lands more credibility to allocate real money to a portfolio that is solely dedicated to the business.
I am putting my own money in these trades. When I don’t, I tell everyone.
I’ve been saying for months that I’m not going to waste my own money on trades in the metal sector or energy sector because they are stuck in basing patterns. But if someone just can’t resist I’ll do my best to try and call the rallies and corrections.
I’ve been trying for months and months to get people, not only here on the blog, but subscribers to focus most if not all of their money in the stock market. And that is exactly what I am doing in my own account. So I am eating my own cooking.
And the shorts just keep getting run over day after day.
Human nature never changes and so we can expect most traders won’t get bullish until close to the very top.
This is just how bubbles play out.
Poor nada. Pity u. Must have not been making money. Please scream and curse more. Please talk down on gary etc. Cos i guarantee u, people who makes money are very happy now. Exhilarated 😉
Oh stop making up a bunch of bullsh*t ChrisG!
Nada is not talking down at anybody. We all appreciate Gary more than you know. He’s just pointing out a fallacy that Gary has been getting away with all these years.
Hey buddy, not sure why you decided to stroll in here and try to pick an argument with me, but lets dance. First, I never used profanity in any of my posts. Second, I never stated anything untrue about Gary or his portfolios. Lastly, you will notice when the two peeps were posting links to other subscriber services over the weekend, I was the first to defend Gary.
I have no issues with Gary and think he is a sweet guy, but that doesn’t mean I have to agree with him on everything. I noticed above how you were calling people parasites and animals for not sharing the same opinion you have, kind of shows the asshole you are 🙂
Nada, I have never posted a link. It is the second time you accuse me of something i did not do.
Right now i am just an old turkey… I have gambled 2000$ for 100 June call of QQQ. If Gary is right, i might gain a million… If he’s wrong, i can live easily with a small loss of 2000…
I don’t recall posting your name, Carl? I am not sure if you were a part of the posts over the weekend. I was referring to whoever was posting links to said subscribers website.
Oh I get it now! I didn’t realize you were the same guy who was fantasizing above when you inadvertently typed “Gary is cock sure that they have quite some more to drop. ” LOL!
Let us use our brains to make money.
Make money, and more money.
The money is out there for us to grab it, that easy. The quality of the thinking is what makes the difference.
Let us be constructive, it only can benefit us.
Same as with the market, try the opposite and it will hurt us.
GOILD — There is more to life than just making money my friend 🙂 And every now and then someone needs an Ass-kicking. Today, that someone is ChrisG!
Me trolls? I have been in this website for so long. Used to post a lot, but no longer. You know why? Cos most here are lousy. Like gary said, nett nett losers. No point debating them. I only read garys posts nowaday. But recently, been seeing many debating , criticising the obvious. He has been so right recently. So…. bottom line, need to insult those losers.
And GOILD is right. There is only one thing that matters in this forum. Make money. There are other things in life . Yes outside of this forum. In this forum, there aint friends. Its all phantom. Not real friends. So get real. Either u have skills to make money, else u learn. No place for losers who criticise the skillful. Losers go join the rats in rathole.
GOLD UPDATE — The metal is trading within a downward channel. I could be wrong but I think Gold will break 1260 and tag the 200DMA before any significant bounce UP. That should translate into a re-test or a break of the recent low in the Miners.
No, say it isn’t so! I think once we get above 15ema in /GC, we may have a nice run 🙂 I know you like the 10ma, but gold told me she likes to long when above 15ema 🙂
Christian, you are holding your Dust then?
I am for now. Picked up a few more shares @26.50 with a BUY LIMIT ORDER.
I want to roll back into DUST — but I think we might get this reverse move in gold for a couple/few days more yet. I am looking at the Stochs on the GDXJ:GLD daily chart. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ:GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p22102816340&a=538692519&listNum=1
I think you might be right. I was hoping the Stochastics would bounce off the bottom and Gold/Miners would provide a re-test or a break of the resent low, creating the kind of divergence I like to see.
No matter what.. Gold has a date with an ICL, so I’m not worried.
Gary, does it really matter whether you trade your money or not? Why is it such a big deal? You are a proud analyst and put your predictions in black and white for all to see. You explain them well. It is up to an individual to use that information to one’s benefit. You don’t force people to invest. Do you? So where is the problem? Let people make their own decision based on your free (and paid) advice to their benefit if they can.
It is ok to point out when when is wrong. It is ok to disagree. But, abuse should be curtailed. I find a couple of individuals can’t write even one post without being abusive. One of them writes very often. That should be looked into.
Last but not the least you have been simply GREAT lately. Your predictions have been superb! Keep it up my friend.
“does it really matter whether you trade your money or not?”
No of course not. I’m making real time trades. But I am trading my own money. Obviously I’m not taking trades just because I think that’s what subscribers want to hear. If I did that I would only take long trades in the metal as many of my subscribers are gold bugs. Clearly those subscribers are not happy when I sell long positions or go short the metals sector. Some of them protest by canceling their subscription when I don’t tell them what they want to hear, and then of course they proceed to lose money, but that’s their problem not mine.
My job is to use the tools and strategies that I have found to be effective and teach my subscribers my methods so that they too can learn how to make money in the market, at least using the strategies that work for me. Of course no strategy works 100% of the time. And every analyst has losing trades or periods where their strategies just simply don’t work. That’s always the time where the novice traders jump ship and move on to the hot analyst of the moment. Course that’s also about the time that my strategy start working again and we start making money and the momentum player they jump ship for starts to lose. That’s why these kind of people are forever losing money because they are always bouncing around trying to find the hot trade of the moment instead of finding a dependable strategy that works consistently and sticking with it.
Don’t get me wrong Gary I think you’re great at what you do, and even when you muck it up and the trolls come out of the wood work to beat on you, I am one of the first one’s to defend you but let’s be real..
In my opinion, it lends more credibility when an Analyst trades REAL MONEY in front of the whole world to see and I don’t remember ever seeing a broker statement from you with 100K allocated to your SMT portfolio.
Also worth noting, if that money was real then you wouldn’t have been able to shut that portfolio down a little while back when you had a mini meltdown — remember? This is a crux of it all and one of the reasons I decided to hold off on renewing my subscription in the first place.
I don’t doubt you trade some of your calls and your perspective is paramount, but please remember that.. any monkey can start an online business and create a portfolio out of thin air. This monkey (me) is actually thinking about doing the same 🙂
Added 100 shares of UVXY at $15.31 for a total of 300 shares.
Please correct me.
Here is the thinking.
The SM has been going up steadily for a long time.
One of these days it needs to have a good retracement. It is bound to happen, it has to.
I want to be there, I want to be in that very first retracement.
With UVXY you will get a very nice leverage. It was at $160 at the beginning of the year.
The market is up about 10%
If for any reason there are bad news to the SM, it can lose that 10% in a matter of days and UVXY may retrace swiftly to $160.
We are talking about the trade of the year here. Very big money can be made.
The SM retracement is bound to happen.
What we need is to time it.
So we need here an expert in timing.
Let us brainstorm about when such a drop/retracement can happen.
I dunno Goild. They love to monkey hammer volatility to support the markets. I agree if there was some major correction, it would be a thing of beauty to ride that instrument. What are the chances of that? In regard to swiftly returning to 160, that is nothing but a fairy tale.
Nada, Do you really think that miners have seen their lows? Or, is this position just for the same of discussion?
Lets see how they close, but technically they put in a swing low. However, I would wait for further confirmation with a close above the 10ema or the 10ma – take your pick.
Announcing Jerome Powell as next Fed this week should be positive for cold and it is reflecting it today. I would not buy DUST this week
Personally, I was hoping for Taylor but to help my my stance in gold, Powell is the better choice as he should send the dixie down. Again, personally I feel the miners are putting in an ICL, but it will not be an idea that many will agree with 🙂
Also, the last thing I am is a gold bug. I am only bullish or bearish depending on my positions 🙂 If I were short gold, I would be posting like Spanky, Gary and my degenerate burrito gambling friend Christian.
Also watch the $SKEW Goild, as of Friday there are no fears in the market. The only thing that I think that may cause a ruckus this week is Kim Jong Un – who will likely buzz Trump with a missile when he visits SK.
NK has already proven that they can hit the mainland US. There is no question about that, math does not lie. However, the key component that remains is a successful test of his re-entry vehicle that holds the warhead. Can or can not survive re-entry into earths atmosphere? They closest thing they have is a test where said warhead was exposed to the heat of a rocket engine – that doesn’t cut it (not enough heat). He will need a test as described to secure his faith in their systems.
and when would be a better opportunity to test than a visit by Trump? My god, its an absolute perfect time 🙂
In a few paragraphs, Avi Gilbert provides targets for the S&P that range from 2330 to 2880. That man’s predictions are beyond just being useless. What a clown act.
A quick question…
Now that the bubble phase has started when is good time to buy nasdaq?
Do you believe will fall under 6000 again soon or sometime next year or never? 😀
looks like you need Gary’s subscription before get lost…
Below 6000?? Unlikely.
I would ease my way in and keep a bit of dry powder if and when the Market delivers a half cycle low.
This is crazy time. So, anything can happen. But, if nasdaq falls back to 6000 then I wouldn’t call it the “vertical phase”.
If we are in “vertical phase” then nasdaq 6000 will probably occur after the bust. Gary is talking about nasdaq 10000+ in less than one year. I fully understand your frustration. Unfortunately, that is how the “blow off” stage progresses. Market keeps on becoming more and more expensive. And, it is difficult to judge when the top occurs.
Goild, you trade JNUG with 10000 share lots like it was play money and now you are dicking around with only 300 UVXY . That’s just pocket change for a high roller like you. Isn’t that a waste of your time?
Biotech seasonal chart:
October a weak month but if history is a guide should finish the yea r…. strong. OWN
SVXY is struggling. It needs to make a new high real soon. Otherwise, there could be a risk of short term swoon for sm. Let us watch the story unfold over the next few days. bpcompq, bpspx, nasi, nysi are on weekly sell signals. put/call ratio in no man’s land. It could be different this time and Gary’s vertigo could happen.
It is a technique which psychologically helps.
With 300 shares, I am involved. I hope UVXY goes lower, and lower, till it is ridiscoulsy cheap.
That is when I will load.
If the correction were to take from now to UVXY $160, I will pocket good money with 300 shares.
There is the possibility of a great trade, the downside is worth the gamble.
The only way UVXY will ever see $160 again is after its 10-1 reverse split. Which should happen in January or so.
UVXY Is right now at $16.07
Pretty sure Golid does not make any of the trades he says he does.
A measure of how successful a trader is, is the time spent here at SMT.
Not necessarily, but those who spend time here is not for free.
The losers, have a finite time, as they loose their account or get a divorce.
The winners stay if they find value here, or part.
The SMT offers fun too.
We need more humor.
Thus if you are staying likely you are making money and are having fun.
GDX UPDATE — Another opportunity to SHORT is slowly setting up shop.
Remember folks, Gold has a date with an ICL. Now is not the time to be buying hand over fist..!
“Remember folks, Gold has a date with an ICL. Now is not the time to be buying hand over fist.”
Yes, everyone is saying that and I am sure everyone will be right. Remember, triangles distort cycles 🙂
Hart to say where the DUST will settle.
Yeah gold has a tough road in front of it.
Probably a good spot. We could be seeing just an oversold bounce here in the miners, and I am with you. I would consider them suspect until I see a close above 10ema/ma.
Psst, I mentioned on Friday gold looked to be testing the breakout range. So far it has a nice bounce off od said b/o range and gold just whispered to me she is a long now after moving over the 15ema.
Additionally miners are both confirming their swings with a strong move over the 10ema. Close is what matters and it would be nice to see /GC over the 10ma.
*correction, I had DEMA set on my chart vs exponential, so ignore the 10ema comments. Prefer a close above before playing miners.
Gold has bounced for the second time off its Fibonacci 61.8% level which can be expected. Last time Gary suggested it could rally from 3-8 days and it rallied for 6 days and failed. What to watch for now is a failed rally in time here and I like the 20 Day SMA (~1283.2) as a price pivot point along with the future line of demarcation that suggests gold could even make the low 1290s and still. Overall, in consideration of time to the ICL then lows near 1200 and even as low as 1161 is possible with 1200 much more likely. Nearer term Gold likely to find some support near 1238.00. Just levels to be aware of. We do need to see a daily close below 1264.5 to confirm lower prices.
Hi Gary, great calls. I am not sure what others here are complaining about, but your calls the past few months were very accurate. And your calls on gold are amazing. It is silly that some expect you not to change your call when new evidence presents itself.
I would like to tell people here that some subscription services were shorting the market constantly since last year. And it has been disastrous. At the very least, Gary saved you from this “calling a market top” trap.
Gary, speaking of ones right to change their mind as new evidence is found, I understand your bubble phase theory/trading plan. My question is, what would negate your call for Nasdaq 10K-20K? Is there a level on the SPY or Nasdaq that, if broken, would indicate we already completed the bubble phase? or any other signal such as the exhaustion gap vs continuation gap you mentioned in your video. It would seem easy to buy TQQQ and hold for six month or till Nasdaq 10K, but what is the stop out strategy? (specially for someone entering the long trade a bit late in what appears to be a frothy bubbly market with seven straight months up on the Dow)
A failed intermediate cycle would raise a lot of warning flags. At this time though it doesn’t look like there’s much of any chance of that happening.
Gary anyway you can set the blog setup to show most recent message listed first instead of having to scroll down through 132 message to get to the most current.
You may want to check with Word Press on how to reverse posting order. You may also want to try phpBB® THE #1 FREE, OPEN SOURCE BULLETIN BOARD SOFTWARE https://www.phpbb.com/ that would require a host charging a low monthly fee. It has a Cbox posting box that can be setup so new posts are at the top.
Gary had made some serious blunders along the way…that said…consider the context.
Gary is attempting to (or at least WAS) navigate the most dangerous and opaque waters (gold) available to the ordinary investor / trader. If you want more volatility/leverage/secrecy u need to step up to primary dealer territory and deal with trillions in swaps imo.
This is not ‘invest your life savings and get a reasonable return’ territory.
I’ve personally lost 70% of my high value / top tick in net worth.
I have done that twice before.
I am still alive and profitable and expect to go out absolutely ON TOP. Volatility and change is the name of this game you are on a blog about.
Every analyst has losing trades. That should be obvious. But I’ve recovered from our losing trade last year. Seriously people that was a year ago. The metal portfolio is now up 193% in less than two years.
I don’t know anyone who would be unsatisfied with those kind of numbers in an extremely difficult and manipulated market.
Many non-tech stocks have given up all of Friday’s gains. SM breadth is nothing to get excited about but you would never know it from the Nasdaq 100 performance.
It’s not how we start the week but how we end. Right now the volume is not heavy so the pullback while not what we want to see is tolerable. ERX is moving up nicely but once again the move is not accompanied by heavy or above average volume so I am still skeptical.
Euro looking good today. She may attempt to put in a swing low tomorrow.
CHF in the zone fwiw…Oct 26 date looking good (+1)
Kimble? He is a big fan of the swiss franc / gold relation. Also, euro is not waiting for tomorrow – she just put in a swing.
Nada – who is Kimble? do not follow any analysts/services – just hang here on the world famous SMT Blog 🙂
hehe, ok just found the swiss franc references interesting. BTW, on Friday even though it did not appear on the WSJ report since miners closed green, there was additional buying of around 190m on GDX and I forget the specifics on GDXJ.
I was watching the time and sales data on the close and I see additional buying of +110m GDX, +70m GDXJ, +88m on GLD. I don’t trust the tape prints too much, but the asks were hit so as long as they do not show up on SOS, I think we are seeing significant inflows. Again, this is the freaking miners so that could change quickly 🙂
thanks, appreciate the SOS/BOW inputs. I follow swissie from waay back – a leading indicator of financial flows IMO – at least it used to be – cycles still work OK there The JPY dominates the hedge fund world now though – since the EUR/CHF/JPY look to all be turning today there’s something afoot imo (worry about FED appt. perhaps).
So to re-cap;
The ones marked in yellow are not confirmed. If you don’t see them on SOS, then they are 🙂
shorted with DUST in PM today as a hedge against miner longs – this NOV 1 date is going to be something on the chart to watch imo. Look at NEM oversold levels and reversal – worth monitoring.
I think we are seeing the ICL in miners. I am obviously aware gold has not had a failed cycle (and one burrito strong because of that fact), so I am going out on a big limb by saying that.
add another 103m that just flowed into GDX in AH. Again if it shows up on SOS, then disregard.
NO SOS in miners. Here is a list of the recent buying in miners over the past few days;
Accumulation peeps. Seeya on the moon, muhahahaha!
The moon peeps, the moon! GDXJ nice inverse head and shoulders on the monthly. Muhahahah!
On the log scale NAZ is well within its channel, climbing slowly to the upper band.
Any reason why regular scale gives a better picture of the market situation than log scale?
Linear scales are used for effect when someone wants a chart to look flashy. If you look at the S&P on a linear scale going back to the 80’s and prior, the line looks almost flat and tells us nothing. A log scale provides a chart in percentage increments which is a whole lot informative.
Looking at the Nasdaq on a log scale, we see that it is still well within a rising channel and there has been no breakout. See for yourself.
Meant to say: A log scale provides a chart with a grid of equal percentage increments which is a whole lot more informative than a linear scale.
There’s almost always a way to torture a chart and make it say what you want.
That is absolutely correct Gary, which is exactly what you are doing by showing ‘breakouts’ on linear charts.
Now I can see why Gary reiterates his market calls…with all the want a be critics on board.
When the Nasdaq went from 1000 to 2000, that was a 100% move. Today, that same 1000 points is less than a 15% move. A log chart will show that clearly, a linear scale will not. Like I said, linear charts are for flashy looks and are actually quite deceptive.
The idea is to pick the most popular indicator. You want to follow the trend. If most analyst use log scale, you need to use the log scale, if they use linear , use linear. When the price break a trendline and go up, it is because multiple analysist see the same trendline and buy at the same time. If everyone was using different indicators or no chart at all, the market would be unpredictable. I don’t know if most people are using log of linear scale.
A true bubble will change slope in a log scale as in the 2000 bubble.
Accordingly and currently there is no Nasdaq bubble but uniform percentage increments.
The change of slope in the log scale reflects the extreme greed and market capitulation of the shorts that cannot stand the heat.
Gary’s belief in a bubble may come later and could be amazing.
The uniform slope of the QQQ in the log scale reflects the FED smooth control of the show.
Since 2010 the Nasdaq has been gaining 19% a year!
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