WATCHING THE SEMI’S

There is zero chance of a significant pull back in the stock markets until the semi conductor index ($SOX) reaches its all-time 2000 high of 1350. The index closed this week some 11% lower than 1350 at around 1220. I expect we will now see a runaway move that slowly grinds higher, forcing shorts who are trying to pick a top to cover, and keeping longs on edge

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162 thoughts on “WATCHING THE SEMI’S

    1. Irksome

      So you’re buying into 17+ years bull run? I thought you were expecting a 1-2 year bubble and then a collapse?

      1. Gary Post author

        I’m not sure we’re going to get another 15+ years of bull market. The bull move may get compressed and happen faster due to the insane amount of money printing that has occurred.

        I watch for signs of bubble behavior.

        If the bull has 15 years still to run then price won’t stretch very far above the 200 DMA until we get 15-20 years down the road.

        On the other hand if the Nasdaq is trading above 10,000, or maybe even 20,000 by next summer then I’d say the bull has been dramatically accelerated by QE and we could finish the bull next year or maybe in 2019.

    1. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

      Look like GC is obviously headed to 1317.20-1323.80 and GDX to 24.88-25.71. Then we figure it out from there.

    2. Nada

      Aww, if I had a nickle for every chart pattern that didn’t play out..

      Your time would be better spent writing my congratulatory letter when we see 1348 on xauusd buddy boy!

      1. Christian

        “Dear Nada,

        When I first laid eyes on your beautiful smile, I said to myself: GOLD is going to 1348!”

        Hw’s that for a start?? Lol

        In all seriousness.. The Buck has already delivered a bottom and the Euro a top, the likelyhood of that pattern working out as planned is very high ๐Ÿ™‚

        Also โ€” I drew a rocket ๐Ÿš€

    3. mexican

      You nailed it!! will find out soon which way the greenback will travel!! I am with you it will rally!!
      Thanks for the post

  1. ocram

    Gary,
    Bitcoin at new highs,Iโ€™m getting almost every day a mail telling me that I will get rich if I buy cryptosโ€ฆโ€ฆthis should be the sign of a top but it continue to go upโ€ฆ.like the SM!
    Gold and Miners are avoided like the plague.
    Are you still convinced that gold/miners are in a bull market???
    Right now it seems that a BASIC METALS bull market is brewing. (check garibaldi resources from 1 cent to 4 dollars in two months and it’s a nickle player)

    1. Gary Post author

      As long as gold holds above the December YCL from last year then yes gold remains in a bull market. I think it will easily hold above that level this year.

  2. dboz

    I think silver is about to roll over here again. Been seeing it gain strength on my signal the last few days. Starting my DSLV scale in. By mid next week the down slope should be starting to accelerate.

    Gold will follow but looks stronger to me right now and is going to drop but it does not look as advanced as the silver drop.

    My signals are still flashing bigger pullback in the indices is coming soon. Not a crash but a 5-10% pullback. It will be steep and scary but short lived. Everyone will think it’s crash time but as Gary says it’s buy time and will truly be a gift to those who do. By this time next month the panic buy chasing will be on fueling Gary’s launch mode.

    I am seeing the metals setup just like 2001 starting to build out. We are getting very close to the crazy metals run everyone here is desiring, except PED. But I suspect the dreaded one more nasty shakeout will be needed to discourage everyone before the train leaves the station.

    I can’t believe how stretched and grinding these moves are taking to play out but the paydays are coming soon for those who have struggled in the sector like myself for almost 18 months.

    Just my musings from some new charting I have been following.

    And as I have been saying for a week, the roll over is already starting and will start to gain traction in the next couple of weeks. BUT, it is always stretching longer so who really knows. I thought we were there a month ago already. I can see it getting closer but it’s like that island in the ocean, you can see it but getting there still takes forever.

    I am still shorting oil with DWT. Adding at this recent upsurge. I expect Monday to be a large open gap down day which will trap all the bulls from this week and a 10% day is coming soon for 3x ETFs.
    Out of metals and adding DSLV as silver rises over the next few days. Been saying for several days my signal is looking down for silver. Gold close but not yet.
    Had a DUST position but sold into the weekend. Should get a better entry Monday\Tuesday.
    I am not going to short the market yet but could in the next couple of weeks.

    For anyone that saw my VALE buy at 9.8X, that is up 5% already and on the way to 15-16 range. Stalled that one for months. Big move coming, train just started to pull out of the station. Free ride for me know, stop at break even. Look at the monster breakout volume yesterday! That’s what we need in metals miners!!!

    My guess is that something to due with North Korea will be the market rattling event but who the heck knows?

    1. Gary Post author

      I suspect the more likely scenario is that gold continues to rally next week, at least part of the week. Short term sentiment isn’t excessive yet. The cycle tops out however without making higher highs and the ICL probably won’t be finished until right before the December FOMC meeting where the Fed will raise another 1/4 %.

      That’s also the most likely spot for the dollar to top and begin moving down into its next ICL.

  3. desertsun999

    I don’t know what you guys are smoking on this blog but my advice is to take 3 or 4 snorts of coke to clear your head. Christian, I might need advice on where to locate an ice cream truck because that little head & shoulders you just showed is about as sure a thing as the sun rising in the west tomorrow. In fact, I will take it one step further, the proposed scenario above would have to break precedent with about 4 decades of US dollar behavior to happen but hey, what the hell……..pass the bong please!

    1. Christian

      You know exactly what we’re smoking here Desertsun โ€” CRACK sprinkled in a spliff ๐Ÿ™‚

      Just to clarify: The dollar has already started a bear market and this H&S is nothing more than a countertrend move that will eventually roll over while GOLD attempts to break 1400.

      Long term: I am a Gold Bull — Short term: I am bearish on Gold

      1. desertsun999

        Christian, you need to take a look at the long term weekly charts on the dollar. It is a rarity that the dollar rises above the 20wema after the USD initially goes into a bear market. Anything can happen but you are betting against the what has happened for the last forty years………..gotta go. Going to see Bladerunner.

        1. Gary Post author

          The 20 WEMA is way to fast. There will be many trips back above that level during a bear market. Try using the 50 WMA.

          Right now the dollar is stretched too far below that average and needs a corrective move to allow the average some time to catch up to price before the next leg down begins.

  4. Goild

    A note on the USD.
    As soon as Trump said we need a lower USD it happened.
    Christian’s head and shoulders textbook pattern to launch a USD rocket, ain’t happening.
    The FED is in bed with the establishment and have no choice but to keep the status quo. They are also traders, and have become extremely stubborn. They will pay for it. Of course they will pass the bill to us, the taxpayers.
    The USD would not climb again to give troubles to Trump. Instead it will channel sideways.
    Gold is climbing, and is carrying the miners along.

  5. Christian

    Folks, if you think the Buck is just gonna drop off the face of the earth without the occasional countertrend rally โ€” you’re sadly mistaken.

  6. espresso

    Thanks, Gary.

    I think it’s likely the Semi’s will hit that high and then starting working on the ‘handle’ just like Gold did a few years ago (about a 28-year cup-then-handle that preceded the huge run to almost 1800), and like the NAZ already did as shown nicely in your NAZ chart since 2000. That is a 17-year cup and handle, one of the best things possible for a huge bullish signal.

    So I think once the Semis gain another 10% that will be likely time for a pullback and handle formation that could take 18 months or so (like it did for the NAZ). And so maybe a time to shift to NAZ, PMs, or ?? for a while, until the bottom of the handle appears to have formed anyway (9-12 months in?).

    Again, thanks for the commentary.

  7. Bluebellkid

    The chip sector has been the most consistently strong sector this year. Chips began 2017 in the top three among 33 sectors and have stayed in the top three most of the year.
    Location within the three chip groups, however, has mattered.
    The chip-designer group is up 19% for the year, and chipmakers are up 22%. But chip-equipment makers are up 56% for the year.
    In the rally that began with the Aug. 21 lows, the chip-equipment group is up 24% vs. 14% for chip designers and 12% for chipmakers.

  8. Bluebellkid

    Some good buy candidates from the Equipment makers group: NVMI – ICHR – ENTG – UCTT – ACLS – BRKS

  9. Goild

    Here is a list of who is short term GOLD/Miners bullish:

    -Nada
    -Gary?
    -Goild, Reason: JNUG lower prices are being rejected right away.

    Please speak out so we can add names. Please add a reason.

    1. Gary Post author

      Timing bands are pretty much out the window now on currencies, but they still break trend lines. That being the case the dollar should break the upper trend line before the intermediate rally is finished. If not that then at least the lower trend line.

      I doubt the rally will end before the December FOMC meeting.

      1. desertsun999

        I don’t know Gary. I just find it hard to believe that the small spec’s are going to be the only ones that are on the right side of the USD COT.

        1. Gary Post author

          The commercials have one of the smallest hedged positions in the dollar in years???

          They were actually net long at the bottom a couple of weeks ago.

  10. desertsun999

    My prediction for Monday on the PM’s. VOLITILITY………..depending on your position some people are going to make a lot of money and some people are going to lose a lot of money, but hey, that’s just the magic 8 ball talking……LOL

  11. earthkitten

    Good luck trying to figure out the miners
    right now, especially the juniors. Gold up
    $8 Friday. GDXJ down. Go figure.

    1. Gary Post author

      It just doesn’t seem worth the hassle when there’s easy money to be made in the stock market.

      1. dboz

        Trading the actual metals has been much easier. Lack of miner follow through just leads me to think we are still heading lower. Until volume comes back (big money) we know we arenโ€™t going anywhere yet.

    2. Christian

      The Miners are dragging their feet because chances are we have one more LOW coming and if anything, this not only solidifies our prognosis that an ABC correction is currently in progress, but also that Nada is about to lose a big ass burrito Mouhahahaaaaaaa ๐Ÿ™‚

  12. Goild

    Here is a list of who is short term GOLD/Miners bullish:
    -Nada
    -Gary?
    -Goild, Reason: JNUG lower prices are being rejected right away.
    Christian: Spidey sense and 61% Fib.
    desertsun999 !? Gold is above and has rejected diving back into Golds’ upper trend line. It is supporting and confirming the bull.

    Please speak out so we can add names. Please add a reason

  13. earthkitten

    I agree with Gary. Forget about oil & gold right now.
    Their day will come. Stocks are the place to be. Thanks
    for the videos Gary.

  14. Bluebellkid

    From John Mauldin’s free weekly newsletter:
    Longtime readers know that I read a wide range of newsletters, articles, and websites every day. There are times when I see patterns in the information flow that are like puzzle pieces begging to be put together. I have been struck in the past few days by the amount of analysis and number of data sets that are all pointing to the same conclusion: There is a bull market in complacency.
    Strange things are happening out there. One formerly successful billionaire hedge fund manager after another throws in the towel, sending the money in their funds back to the clients, confessing that they donโ€™t know how to handle these markets. I am reminded of the surrender of Cornwallis to Washington at Yorktown in 1781. Tradition has it that, as the British surrendered, their band played the old English folk tune โ€œThe World Turned Upside Down.โ€

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ve pointed out in a couple of my recent videos that the ROBO ratio and dumb money confidence levels aren’t even vaguely close to levels that would signal a bull market top, much less a bubble top.

      This is what happens after the kind of bear market we had in 2009. That leaves a deep scar on most investors that takes many many years to forget.

      Over the last 9 years we’ve seen hundreds of analysts predicting the next crash is just around the corner. This is because they are all expecting a repeat of 2009.

      It’s not going to happen. For one central banks are now being proactive. They prevent sell offs from getting much momentum. On top of that the global economy is chugging along fine. Earnings are growing as fast as stock prices.

      Until there is a catalyst the market isn’t going down in any meaningful way.

      IMO the catalyst will be that central banks err on the side of too much protection, too much liquidity, and interest rates too low for too long, causing another series of bubbles. Then when the bubble in stocks pops they will make the mistake of creating more QE and that will cause commodities to surge again like it did in 2008. If oil goes over $100 during a deflating stock market bubble then we will have the recipe for the next recession.

      1. trendyfollower

        Gary, one thing to consider is as we went from agrarian to industrial the recession / bear market frequency dropped from ~2 years to ~5.5 years (from before the Great Depression to after). The cause for recessions went from spikes in wheat prices to spikes in energy prices. Now we go from industrial to information age and we also had a transformative Great Recession. Therefore, it is conceivable that energy prices do not play the same role they did in the previous, industrial age and that the frequency of recessions drops to > 10 years. If we apply the same factor from 2 to 5.5 years we would end up at ~13 years between recessions.

        1. jabalong

          Yes, VERY interesting!

          To follow it through, any thoughts what the catalyst for recessions might be in the information age?

  15. Goild

    About the easy money…
    There are some occasions indeed where there is easy money as in the GOLD reversal on December 2016.
    And there are many more instances, which if one is prepared and ready, one can take advantage.
    There is a lot of easy money on every security. One just have to know the direction.

    They say that the grass is greener else where.
    Probably not.
    At the end, after a reasonable setup and analysis, it boils down to having the guts to put the dough on the table.

    Getting into the SM now is becoming close as to flipping a coin. This year so far is about 15% up.
    For many folks putting 50% of the accounts would be around $125K. If they get lucky by the end of the year they can make 10%. If they have bad luck, they can lose in a jiffy 20%.
    The sad reality is that the time to have gotten was seven years ago., when there was disbelieve in the SM.

    Perhaps a better deal is to put the $125K in GLD. The chances to lose there are much smaller and the potential to double the money in seven years is pretty good.

  16. jacob2

    Semi’s nope commodities yes.

    The time to have aggressively bought semi’s was years ago (I did).

    SEll tech end of year and buy …. commodities.

  17. trendyfollower

    Thanks. The three cycles in the economy are: business inventory (~3-5 years), business investing (~7-11 years) and consumer spending (~15-25 years). Bad recessions / depressions occur when all three are synced in their downturn (1929, 1972, 2007). Since WW2 a garden-variety recession required at least the two business cycles to go down together. The business inventory cycle alone cannot depress GDP growth enough to go negative (example: 2011). It seems that going forward recessions may only be generated by the downturn of the consumer spending cycle (last: 1989-1993, 2005-2010). We’ll have to wait at least to the next 7 year cycle downturn or maybe another one after that to see the effects for sure.

  18. Gary Post author

    Commodities will have their day, but not before the stock market finishes it’s bubble phase.

    I’ve been trying to tell people this for years now and still no one listens to me. Now we are moving into the easy money fast phase and still no one will listen.

    How long must this continue before you people pay attention?

    Compare the two long term charts and ask yourself why would institutional traders ever risk any significant money in the sector on the bottom?

    So many of you really need to start thinking like a smart money institutional trader and pay attention to the long term charts.

    1. jacob2

      Bought years ago and still hold chip and tech stocks: INTC, BZUN. TCHEY,MSFT. Doubles and triples. Bought them all when they were very unloved. Will I continue to hold then at least till the end of the year you bet. Will I add to them… no way. The next big thing is going to be commodities. A rolling top by early next year money comes out of tech into commodities. Time to buy is soon. Inflation to sky rocket by next summer.

      To each his/her own.

      1. Gary Post author

        There is zero chance of huge inflation next year. This is going to take time to unfold.

        The CRB isn’t even above it’s declining 200 week moving average yet. It’s going to be at least 2020 before we see any serious commodity inflation.

        These people freaking out and looking for the train to leave the station are, to put in mildly, idiots.

        Gold has a long difficult struggle ahead as it moves through the adolescent and maturing stage of its bull market.

        Assuming we got a slightly early 3 year cycle low in the dollar back in 2016, then the next one will be due in 2019. That’s still way too early for gold to go parabolic. That means we will have to wait probably another complete 3 year cycle into 2022-23 before gold’s bubble phase arrives.

        1. rubiks cube

          Is it possible that the recent low in the dollar is the 3 yr cycle low due to the currency cycles being stretched out? Maybe the 2016 low was a fakeout?

          1. Gary Post author

            You need to widen that chart out a hell of a lot further because you ain’t seeing the big picture.

            This is just now recovering the 200 WMA and hasn’t even managed to turn it up yet.

          2. Gary Post author

            What you need to look at is how long it took for commodities to turn back up. 1955 to 1972. 1927 to 1934.

        2. Strike2

          Interesting Gary. I thought your previous timeline had nearly back to back bubbles, I think 2017/18 and 2020, for SM and PMs. Now the gap is doubled. to 4 or 5 years. The 3 year cycle for the dollar and gold revised your thinking or did I misunderstand? Sounds like the SM collapse will now take 5 years to fuel commodities.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’ll just have to see if the vertical phase plays out over the next 6-8 months like I expect.

            Then if the bubble pops and the Fed resorts to more QE to try and reflate.

            That would be the driver to start commodity inflation IMO.

            I think a lot hinges on how quickly stocks complete their bubble.

        3. jacob2

          Thanks for the input. In no hurry with plenty of exposure to the usual but do sense the world is shifting EAST.

    1. Gary Post author

      Unless I can see that chart all the way back to 1900 I have no idea whether this is extreme, or normal. We may have had the same look in 1990 and we all know what happened over the next 10 years.

  19. Nada

    Oil shorts getting pinched this morning. Gold looking good, but we have had 6 days of green candles, would expect a red one soon.

    1. Gary Post author

      The yen is right at resistance of a downward sloping 200 week moving average and gold is right at 1307 resistance.

      I’ll need to see sentiment after the close.

      If GLD is above 80% bulls this could be a potential spot for the cycle to top. It was 80% as of Friday. If it reaches 82-85% today this could be a spot to initiate shorts if one is so inclined.

      All I’m really expecting though is a retest of the 100 or 200 week moving average. So I doubt gold goes below 1230 at the ICL.

      1. Nada

        Gary, when does sentimentrader update percentages, at close of market or a few hours after? I am a subscriber. but never paid attention to the updates times – mostly use the heat map for day trades. Thanks

  20. Nada

    “Goild
    October 14, 2017 at 7:39 pm
    Here is a list of who is short term GOLD/Miners bullish:”

    Make sure you add Dboz and Spanky to the super f’ing bearish column ๐Ÿ™‚

  21. Steffmeister

    This is the Average Analyst outlook for end of 2017 and into 2018:

    “We remain cautious on Gold in the near term as Goldโ€™s correction would continue if the US Dollar Index breaks above 94. With that said, if the USDIโ€™s primary trend has turned bearish then that certainly bodes well for precious metals and precious metals shares in 2018”

    Scared to death for the little H&S pattern in the dollar and bullish going into 2018.

    I am 180ยฐ contrarian to that outlook! I think 2018 will turn out to be a very boring year for Gold! 2017 is a topping year imo …

    Bullish gold until 911 anniversary, the riddle that Nada has some problem with.

    1. Nada

      “โ€œWe remain cautious on Gold in the near term as Goldโ€™s correction”

      Who is we? And as far as the riddle, have not given it any thought. Don’t really want to speculate, so if you can’t be clear, don’t come back later and say you nailed the move ๐Ÿ™‚

      Sacred to death of Dixie his? Nah, should be headed down to 61.8 fib.

      1. Steffmeister

        What is nine in Latin? Spell it out for me …

        “We” are Jordan Roy-Byrne + Christian?+Gary?+Spanky?+dboz? and a dozen others around the globe.

        1. Nada

          Ok, yes I know of Jordan Roy-Byrne. Don’t follow, but know the name. We have new moon in 3 days too ๐Ÿ™‚

          1. Steffmeister

            9 in latin is Novem, what month starts with Novem? Glowing coal is called ember in English combine the 2 words=NOVEMBER

            November=9th month in ancient times
            November=11th month in modern times

            so a top in Gold in November? lets say the 11th of the 9th month or the 9th of the 11th month?

            You are right Nada, this is complicated when you write it down. I guess I have a talent for abstract thinking ๐Ÿ˜›

  22. JJHarmen

    Anyone playing the biotechs? they are going nutso this morning with XBI up 1.64%, LABU up 4.8%. Sure glad I didn’t take out a short position.

  23. JJHarmen

    The VIX (not VXX)is gapped up nicely this morning. Folks are getting nervous and buying protection. Probably means nothing.

    1. Nada

      “Probably means nothing.”, lol. I would love to see the SM correct 20%. The most hated bull market, ever!

  24. JJHarmen

    Nada, haven’t you read the memo? A 2% correction is no longer allowed. That would hurt the feelings of the millennials who are supposedly diving into the markets with the money they have saved from living in their parents basement and eating free food.

  25. Nada

    Quick update;

    Dollar rejected twice this morning at 10ema. Still on target for 61.8 fib retracement to 92.25. Euro is now bouncing and EURUSD on target to 1.20. Yields having a bit of trouble with their gains, doji so far on the daily US10Y.

    USDJPY round top is looking great. We may get a bigger correction than I thought. For now 110.40ish remains. The Yen is forming a nice round bottom on the daily, still looks good to me. Miners seem to be forming cup and handle. Don’t miss the move folks ๐Ÿ˜‰

  26. vin

    Gary, what do you think of labu? Or, that sector in general.

    If semis are going to go up 12%, how can biotech be left behind is spite of politcos.

        1. vin

          Looks like, so is everyone else. It peaked at 91 to-day and now at 85. LOL!
          These politicos are something else. They are the 8th. wonder.

  27. Americano

    For those of you who remain currently โ€œ Bitcoin Deniers โ€œ ( its cool – remember Moses had to get all the Israelites to smash that golden calf before they got back on track – & I do tease )…….AMD will have a cake walk to $20 plus given mining chip demand. BitcoinGold fork ( free money like Bcash in Aug for Bitcoin holders) should provide some impetus. Itโ€™s a gimme !

  28. Nada

    Looks like 1299 is going to get tested on spot. Looks like a good place to bounce to 1348 ๐Ÿ™‚ Seeya on the moon!

    muhahaha

    1. Nada

      The low was 1298.75, pretty damn close ๐Ÿ™‚ . So far, nice tail on the 1h candle. Sipping tang by Friday bitches!

  29. AT

    just filled, out of DUST with a profit

    new trade Oct 16 sold DUST 100% 23.85

    Oct 12 buy DUST 100% 23.33
    Oct 12 SOLD JNUG 50% 19.47
    Oct 11 BUY JNUG 50% 18.56
    Oct 11 SOLD 75% DUST 24.48
    Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
    Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92

          1. AT

            is possible JNUG can go down some more from here … I never catch the bottoms or tops, close enough is good as long as turn a profit

          2. vin

            I agree with Nada that you are good. I am going to start following you more closely. Thank you for being here.

    1. Nada

      It seems you get two trades for the miners – 1. coming out of ICL and 2. short while dropping into ICL. The in between is continuous chop.

  30. AT

    last trade today, all in jnug: new trade Oct 16 buy JNUG 50% 18.26

    Oct 16 buy JNUG 50% 18.65
    Oct 16 sold DUST 100% 23.85

    Oct 12 buy DUST 100% 23.33
    Oct 12 SOLD JNUG 50% 19.47
    Oct 11 BUY JNUG 50% 18.56
    Oct 11 SOLD 75% DUST 24.48
    Oct 10 BUY 25% DUST 23.09
    Oct 6 BUY 50% DUST 23.92

    1. Nada

      6 green candles in a row and today will be red. Will be interesting to see what level sentiment is at after today. I don’t think its done, but we shall see.

  31. Nada

    Looks like I may be sipping shit through a straw vs the sweet taste of tang! I will close my position if 15ema is broken – until then, its just wiggles!

  32. Christian

    I can almost taste that BURRITO Nada ๐Ÿ™‚ If today’s bearish engulfing candle holds, then you can kiss 1344 goodbye buddy boy, Lol

    1. Nada

      lol, I will concede that tasty burrito if gold closes below 15ema. Until then, just daily wiggles of the bull.

      In other news, looks like turbulence caused by NK news and Trumps potential Fed pick. 1 report had NK willing to meet and talk and then it appears it was retracted. Who knows, but definitely not what I wanted to see ๐Ÿ™‚

      1. Christian

        I think the 10DMA is a better indicator because it’s more commonly used, but to each his own.

        Ps: Don’t ever trade the news; it’s a waste of time my friend! We were already calling for an ABC correction in the metals way before Kim started swingin his little noodle.

  33. Christian

    DUST — Clearly overbought on the 1 hour chart. I’ll wiggle my way in on a pull-back.

    WAVE C coming right up..!

  34. victor

    metals may revisit previous high, but will drop much easier after…, bought additional 1000 HNU.to at 5.32 this morning. Metals is a headache for a while…

  35. Spanky

    Once the yen breaks down, it is going to be a violent drop in the the metals and miners. 118 is probably a piece of cake, and 112 will follow soon thereafter. 200 WMA in GDX will probably get broken easily.

  36. Spanky

    The silver miners have been suggesting weakness in the metal for over a week. Should be interesting to see how low the banksters can take silver. Imagine a number on the low side and it is possible. $12? Why not. $9 sure. $5, why the hell not. CoTs have a LONG way to go before a bottom.

  37. Jimsee

    spanky – great idea to have no preconceived notions on price – I’d love $5 silver – my miners would go broke – but the futures profits would be HuuuGe!

  38. Nada

    Prediction is +200million on GDX and +105m on GDXJ. If not there, then I will be under my desk in fetal position for the rest of the week.

      1. Nada

        Too early. Wait for 5:15pm eastern. That is the final print. However, it should be there by 5pm. Patience grasshopper. This was just a shakeout ๐Ÿ™‚

    1. Spanky

      Give it up. The BOW numbers are complete bunk. Just take a flier on GDX when it goes sub $21. This sector is lubed and ready to receive.

      1. Christian

        “This sector is lubed and ready to receive” He says to his wife with a determined look on his face, Lol!

      2. Nada

        Its an indicator and has bearing in regards to flow. Saying it is “complete bunk” is nonsense.

        This is a typical reaction though. After a red candle, bears flood the scene and claim victory. I will say it again, its too soon to be headed into an ICL. Dec 13th or later will be the bottom. We are not going to drop for 2 months folks.

  39. Spanky

    even if the metals are in a new bull, expect the miners to get absolutely destroyed one more time, just because it’s what happens to them (and the banksters will make tons of $$$ once the stops are triggered).
    When has a major rally in this sector not been preceded by a waterfall decline even if only intraweek, like in January 2016? Pain is what this sector is about.

  40. dboz

    Still shorting oil (gift add this morning). SOLD VALE today. SOLD DSLV. Still long UGAZ (stole shares for 10.20 premarket to add to my hoard).

    I think we could be inching close to finally getting a decent run up here in the metals and miners.

    Starting piling in on JNUG today the last hour of trading. Adding some GLD also.

    AND, still seeing RUT and SPY(X) rolling over here. We got a little dip the last time, this time I think we get more. That drop COULD/SHOULD fuel the metals and miners as we finally get a little fear into this market?

    So I am on board with NADA. Time to board the train, the next 3-4 weeks could see a move up in the metals and the miners…….BIGLY.

    1. Spanky

      Fear in this market? What does that mean, a 1% drop?

      RUT is ready to go higher. It will spike up to new highs and then roll over after a divergence is created, but price won’t be dropping below today’s level.

  41. Goild

    So I was wrong for the short term.
    Being wrong and being stubborn is a recipe for disaster.
    Today I am down -$7.8K.
    I left 3K JNUG shares on the table but the situation for GOLD looks very grim.
    I am considering getting back to being a humble ANT rather than a greedy swing trader.
    We shall see how we close the week.
    At this point my enthusiasm for Gold is dying. The interest rates have no choice but to go up.
    Which will hurt gold. USD would be threatening Gold here and there. Bitcoin and SM are sucking all the money. Thus expect more gold and miners pain.

      1. RTTPD

        Listened to William Arkin on the radio the other day. He said when you see an evacuation order for Americans to leave SK — That means it’s on…..

  42. Bob

    Right on schedule:

    Last year the final dcl into the ycl was left translated , started on October 7 and finally bottomed on December 15.
    This year the final dcl started on October 6 and is left translated.
    Note to calendar – sell JDST on Dec. 14 or thereabouts.

    1. Nada

      The drop into the ICL started Nov 7th, so using that as a comparison seems a bit soon for this cycle to top.

    1. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

      Yeah, dont lose hope, there’s still palobar’s “very strong” turn date of oct 20th-23rd for a long trade. The 8th to 10th date paid very well, having bought on the 6th.

  43. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

    Havent seen a palo date that didnt work. Looks to be setting up again of this blood continues next few days

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