180 thoughts on “CHARTS OF THE DAY – THE DOLLAR AND GOLD”

  1. isavage

    Yes was just thinking the same. i have the line slightly higher & just burst through now. a the same time back testing the 38% Fib of the 2014 to 2016 move EUR/USD

    1. vin

      no worry. 10k is a piece of cake. But, aim for 20k.

      I hold labu, waiting for the vertical rise in SM. Just a question of a few months and I will be rich.

  2. spectrum2105

    SM trading = Rock climbing, Fed = safety rope

    Gold trading = Rock climbing during earth quake, no safety rope

    I don’t get it, but takes all kinds I guess.

  3. isavage

    Think there is a possibility we could be maxed out already for the move so sold EUR/USD x 2 ETF here. Partly as a hedge for a USD land investment i need to pay for next month.

    1. spectrum2105

      I was thinking juggling chain saws while tight walking across an erupting volcano, but nude sneaker ice wall climbing, yes too.

  5. Goild

    Vin,

    I also enjoy your post and your humor.
    Some friends invited me to visit them in Asia.
    So now is night again here.

    Mexican,
    The answer is that I enjoy participating in this block as it adds diversity to trading.

    Victor, thank you for the good wishes.

    I need to go to sleep as it has been a long day.
    No fun trading today.

    Good trading to all!

  6. zkotpen

    Goild,

    “We need to appreciate people more here, specially the bright ones, as we lose when they leave…”

    1. Duuuuuude

      If you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all. Seek first to understand, then be understood. I think this blog would be much better served by helping people understand a different point of view rather than pointing out how stupid they are. Trying to convey an idea here is met with such ridicule that I seldom ever bother posting anything. Its like “Idiocracy” around here in terms of the best people leaving, and leaving behind folks to bicker among-st themselves.

    1. Gary Post author

      The blog has definitely become much friendlier now that a few of the trolls have left.

      Just an observation, it seems that most people leave once they make an aggressive market call and then it fails to pan out. Instead of accepting that they were wrong they just go into hiding.

      1. Gary Post author

        This is just the nature of financial blogs in general. There are always going to be trolls ready to pounce on any wrong call. The problem lately has been that I haven’t really made any bad trades in quite a while. So the trolls just don’t have any ammunition.

        Also now that we have the challenge everyone has to play by the same rules. Real-time calls.

        As we have seen, most of the trolls either won’t enter the contest and put their ass on the line, or if they do most of them haven’t performed very well.

      1. Nada

        Hmm, I dunno primetime. Coming off a week ban and on day 2 we start complementing Gary. Sounds like some ass kissing to me 🙂

          1. Nada

            haha, yeah I could not resist on that one. Your boy Christian has not showed up, I guess his feelings were hurt. Once gold produces a failed cycle, I am sure he will pop up.

  12. JJHarmen

    Opening SM gap down. I think we have seen this before. They might let the market fall a little more as an incentive for the politicians to get off their asses and move the tax reform forward but I wouldn’t count on it. The algos are probably programmed to buy dips regardless. Let’s see how the day ends.

  17. Jimsee

    Loving the gold action today – london gave quite the show this morning…nice pop to reshort here imo…friday should see volatility explode imo. strangles should pay well with no directional risk.

    1. Nada

      With the Dixie and UJ price action, it seems risky. Gold obviously wants to drop into ICL, but pretty hard to do that with a weak dollar and strengthening yen. Maybe a bit higher to keep grinding bears and bulls.

  19. Gary Post author

    Now that we have more evidence, I think it’s clear stocks are moving down into a very stretched daily cycle low. The five day RSI is now oversold, and I suspect the McClellan oscillator will also be oversold tonight, so I’m going to predict the cycle will bottom by the end of the week.

    I’m guessing the dollar cycle will probably bottom in conjunction with stocks.

    1. RTTPD

      Gary —–

      Also looks like we are getting the oil pull back you talked about before we head to 60-62 level

    2. trendyfollower

      Great call, thanks! Bios close to 2015 highs = corrections instead of breakout. We may see similar in semis soon.

  21. mrsschroeder

    Do you dudes and dudettes have any opinion on biotech? It (looking at IBB) broke above that boring 18-month corridor in June and now it’s at support levels again. Could it be a buying opportunity?

    1. vin

      I am biotach expert. I own labu. It will go to 500 but only after nasdaq exceeds 10k and reaches 20k. Piece of cake.

      1. isavage

        Will you think about Bio again Gary or is it too much risk even after the pull back? Seem to closing in a good support zone soon.

        1. Gary Post author

          I think I will make plenty of money in QQQ and Dia. I don’t need to mess around with a risky sector like biotech.

  22. Gary Post author

    Regardless of how the next few days play out, this intermediate cycle is very unlikely to top until the semi conductor index reaches 1362, the S&P tags the bull market channel trendline (roughly 2620-ish), and the NASDAQ composite reaches 7000.

  23. JJHarmen

    And just like it always does, the SM rallies back hard although it is a tad bit early for the rally to commence. They usually give the VXX and UVXY buyers more time to get sucked in. Something has changed.

    1. Gary Post author

      I think it just amounts to a huge magnet pulling the market towards that 1362 level in the semi’s and 7000 in the NASDAQ composite. Buyers aren’t terribly concerned about trying to time a perfect entry. They just want to get in for the last part of the move. So they are buying any and every dip.

  24. isavage

    Nice Call today on the USD Gary!

    My resistance line is in the dust now & half way to yours. EUR is close to 50 MA maybe that will be it for the EUR as the USD try’s to get to its 50 MA that’s also in the same place as your resistance line on the days chart above.

    1. Nada

      BTW, on the 4hr time-frame, this is about 61.8 fib retracement, I opened hedge to short here in future contract.

  28. Nada

    The Euro went absolute gangbusters after the German data this morning. Maybe she starts to head back to Earth.

    1. Gary Post author

      The euro has printed a daily cycle low. This daily cycle should also be left translated as the dollar is due to put in its cycle bottom any day now.

  32. TraderPete

    Gold and silver are not responding comensurate to the decline of the dollar, especially silver. Therefore, watch for a gold and silver smash at your nearest trading platform soon! 😎

    1. vin

      Gary is of the opinion that at present money is to be made in SM and not PM. Indeed. It looks very good. nasdaq at 6733. He says that in about 6 months it will be significantly above 10k and may be 20k. Just 3267 points short. Looks really good. Won’t you agree?

  34. Don

    Today, market breadth was poor (as it has been for days) with 59% of stocks declining, 52% made new lows, and 53% are below their 50 day MA . The transportation index as well as the Russell 2000 topped over a month ago. The monthly S&P RSI is higher now than it was at the 2007 top and yet, the S&P is just a fraction off it’s all time highs and rallies back strongly from all minor dips. Incredible!

    Despite all the shitty technical stuff, the bears are getting their asses handed to them on a regular basis. It will be interesting to see where this SM is at a few months from now.

      1. vin

        No wonder 99% of the investors ever make any money, as Gary says. He has said over and over that 10k is a piece of cake and 20k is doable. But, naysayers just can’t seem to agree. And, he says they will never make any money.

        I have learnt my lesson. I now hold labu. When nasdaq goes to 20k in less than a year, I will be smiling.

        1. Bluebellkid

          ” I now hold labu. When nasdaq goes to 20k in less than a year, I will be smiling.”

          That’s sort like wishing in one hand and crapping in the other – which one do you think will fill up first??

          1. zkotpen

            Bluebellkid,

            I totally agree… also noticed that your posts, like mine, have been “less robust” lately. I don’t blame you!

            You and goild are the only ones I pay attention to these days.

  35. Gary Post author

    Folks, this time instead of doing the same thing that you always do, try buying the dip.

    Stocks are going to complete their daily cycle low before the week is finished.

  37. jacob2

    Not a fan of Gary’s parabolic sm move. We’ve already had an epic run in the market and think it likely to pause as the fed reduces liquidity. Still own individual stocks but lightening up as I think suprizes will be to the down side.

    Don’t follow others blindly make up your own mind.

    1. Gary Post author

      All those investors that failed to listen to me have already missed almost a 2000 point move in the NASDAQ.

      Most will probably miss the next 2000 points as well, and only start buying once we get close to that $10,000 mark.

      The Robo ratio still isn’t even vaguely close to the kind of retail complacency that exists at bull market tops.

      1. jacob2

        Gary, Don’t think the market is going to crash but the sands are shifting. The market has climbed it’s wall of worry. At full employment, got some wage inflation and a synchronized global recovery. No one believed it could ever happen spring of 2009 but here we are. Personally rode it down, didn’t sell and rode it back up again. Thank you Ben Bernake. Spring 2009 the best time to be all in the SM. Today, not so much.

        So what’s the big positive piece of economic news powering the markets higher going forward?

        The big negative of course is that the fed is tightening monetary conditions. That juice we’ve all been drinking for almost a decade is going away. Without that constant injection of liquidity think the market struggles more frequently. No bear but Just don’t see a parabolic move here.

        Lightening.

        1. Gary Post author

          Well at the rate that the Fed is withdrawing liquidity it’s going to take 30 years to remove all the QE damage that was done. So that’s not really a factor.

          The Fed needed to be tightening rates and removing liquidity six years ago. Now it’s too late to turn the Titanic around.

          What would drive the markets higher? That one’s easy. Earnings are rising just about as fast as the stock market. If Trump pushes through his tax cuts profits are going to soar.

          So we either get a bubble or series of bubbles just like we did the last two times, or we have started a long-term secular bull market that will be driven by exponential advances in robotics, biotech, transportation, etc.

    2. Nada

      Yes we have been over this. Gary doesn’t even believe 10k, but it makes for one hell of a one liner. Gary will be remembered for 2 things in the end;

      1. JNUG 23
      2. 10k is going to be a piece of cake. 20k is not out of the question.

      What will not be remembered is some of his excellent advice about cycle theory. Why? Because he can not resist saying crazy shit, lol.

      1. Gary Post author

        Hell we’re almost half way to 10,000 already. You’ve missed it because you insisted on trading the metals that are stuck in a difficult basing pattern. Your challenge portfolio shows it.

        On the other hand both of the SMT stock portfolio and metal portfolio’s are up nicely and if you consider over the last two years we are doing exceptionally well. I would guess much better than 95% of hedge funds in the world.

        Currently +147% & +192%

        I don’t think anyone would seriously be unhappy with those numbers.

        Unfortunately most retail traders panic and sell at bottoms and cancel right before we start making money. These people have no hope of ever making money in the markets and I decided it was useless trying to help them. They will forever find ways to sabotage their trading. That’s why I raised my prices. To get rid of the losers.

          1. Gary Post author

            Unfortunately none of us get the luxury of resetting in real time. When we have a losing trade we have to try to come back from it.

            You have your work cut out for you to try and rebuild your portfolio before July.

          2. Nada

            Come on Gary, how can you say this;

            “When we have a losing trade we have to try to come back from it”.

            Now answer me this. When the JNUG 23 trade went to hell in a handbasket, what did you do?

            You reset the portfolio. It’s OK, but don’t lay the sanctimonious BS on me.

          3. Gary Post author

            You know that is complete BS.

            I explained very clearly why traders should stop out at 1275 if gold fell back below that level. It took gold a long time to break through that and if it lost that level it was going to extend the ICL. That was exactly what happened.

            We entered real time long positions almost at the exact bottom in December last year and have since easily recovered all of the losses from that one premature trade in September.

            Also what you are conveniently omitting is that even after that losing trade we were still up 50% for the year because we had made so much money during the baby bull.

          4. Nada

            I am not saying you have not had some good trades.

            The fact remains that the portfolio was reset. Now tell me that’s not true.

          5. Gary Post author

            The portfolio started exactly where it left off. We were +50% when we stopped out at 1275 and it started at +50% in December when we reentered long positions.

            So I have no idea what you are talking about “portfolio reset”.

  38. Duuuuuude

    If you own a NASDAQ E-Mini futures contract, every point is worth $20. A 2000 point move would be worth $40000. The.initial margin to own one NASDAQ E-Mini futures contract is $4500. Enter your order when we get a swing low and the risk is pretty easy to manage with a stop just below the swing.

    1. Nada

      You are making it sound a bit to easy. First, you are assuming you take no drawdown which would dramatically change the margin requirements. Second, you are not factoring in slippage and contract changes.

      In hindsight it sounds really easy, but did you open 1 contract 10 months ago and make 40k? Doubtful.

      1. Duuuuuude

        I explained where to put a stop so the risk is managed. There is very little slippage near expiration. I have 12 contracts. You can do the math if we get to 10,000. Its a lot easier than what I see most people here doing.

  39. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary:
    When EURUSD touches 1.1881 today/tomorrow, you will have to adjust your view a bit:
    – JPY set its YCL already,
    – EUR set ICL at 1.1555 last week on week 30,
    – Gold to fall to ICL ~1259 and EUR to HCL next week,
    – FOMC will host merely a DCL (not ICL) for EUR/gold/miners,
    – post-FOMC: EURUSD above 1.22 & miners to set their YCH (now their YC looks left-translated and that is not natural).

    1. Alexandru Popovici

      … EUR already has IC trend line break, a close>50dma, weekly swing low.
      USX should put its DCL today/tomorrow on 50dma as EURUSD breaks-out > 1.1880 but….caution on a swing high of USX at the end of next week (as eurusd puts its HCL) !

      1. Gary Post author

        We’ll see. At 48 days the dollar cycle is due to bottom at any time. It reached the 38% Fib retracement this morning.

        It’s also sitting right on its steeply rising 10 week moving average. This is a prime spot for the cycle to bottom.

        1. Nada

          Sounds about right on the dollar, but with the euro just now coming off a low, it may be a bit stretched.

          Obviously gold is having a weak response to the huge drop in the Dixie and USDJPY. Your advice on;

          “In the declining phase of an intermediate cycle, surprises come to the downside”. This is the great advice I highlighted in last post.

        2. Alexandru Popovici

          yes, indeed, Gary, a DCL of USX soon.
          and with:
          – 50dma of USX right under its nose,
          – eurusd so close to 1.1881,
          – Thursday (tomorrow) usually a down day for stocks, hence also for USX,
          – 200dma right under the nose of Transports,
          we can expect DCL for USX tomorrow.

          PS: on the other hand, for SM maybe it will be just…HCL 🙂 maybe we are already in a failed DC of stocks 🙂

          1. Gary Post author

            We haven’t had anything that qualifies as a DCL yet. The recent three day dip didn’t close below the cycle trend line and it didn’t turn the 10 DMA down. Without at least generating those two requirements there’s no way to call that a DCL.

            We are getting the DCL in stocks now along with the DCL in the dollar just like I predicted. The McClellan oscillator is already moving into deeply oversold levels.

            As I have noted before, when a daily cycle stretches extremely long like this one, it usually means there will only be two daily cycles embedded within the larger intermediate cycle. So I suspect we’re going to get an intermediate top probably around the FOMC meeting and the next daily cycle will become left translated. The semi should tag 1362, the S&P should tag it’s bull market channel trendline, and the NASDAQ composite will probably reach 7000 before this intermediate cycle tops in mid-December.

            The one caveat is that the market tends to be very strong all the way into the holidays so the top may come a week or two after the FOMC meeting.

  41. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary,
    The scenario of an advance of EUR (and of gold after ICL next week) in a new IC along with Stocks already in IC decline is supported also by the status of CRB index and of WTIC: after DCL of CRB these days it, CRB Index (along with crude) may go up in a new DC to fail quickly (as crude touches its 200Wma at ~ 59) and head to ICL along with stocks.

    1. Gary Post author

      That’s what I’ve been saying for quite a while now. I was expecting oil to drop down into a daily cycle low a little sooner. It actually broke through that $53-$55 level before the daily cycle topped.

      But once we get a bottom we should see a left translated cycle at least reach the $60-$62 level before rolling over into an intermediate decline. I suspect that will also correspond with the stock market moving down into an ICL.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think the PPT manages the market all that often. Certainly they make sure the market is rising into FOMC meetings, Humphrey Hawkins addresses, and political events. It just makes the Fed’s decision-making process so much easier if the market is going up ahead of an FOMC meeting the.

      And yes I think they proactively halt ICL’s before they gain too much momentum, but on a day-to-day basis I don’t think they are in the market intervening constantly.

      1. vin

        labu is positive while the nasdaq is still down! Can you understand what will happen to labu when nasdaq goes to 20k!

        I guess you can’t. You can’t even figure out what is in your hands. If you have too much difficulty, taste both and you will find out. It shouldn’t be that hard for a smart one like yourself. LOL!

  43. bluebull

    Gary, you’re memory still seems a bit confused on the past. You did not stop out at 1275 last December! There was never a stop at all. You said bull markets correct all timing/entry mistakes and that you would hold through the draw down. And then you closed the portfolios and then later reset them. This is an indisputable fact. Non-subscribers simply need to ask any actual subscriber at that time to verify this is absolutely true. Also, you continue to claim that you are not a day trader. How many times have you bought and sold the metals and stocks portfolio over the last month? Half truth maybe. You’ve become more like a two-day trader LOL.

    1. Gary Post author

      Published on November 7th.

      Keep in mind the I had already explained the importance of that 1275 level to traders.

      ” if gold closes back below 1275 then one might want to stop out and wait to see what happens.”

      Also keep in mind that no one should have had more than 20% of their portfolio invested in gold. I stressed over and over that it was too early to be taking huge positions in the metals market. So even if someone had taken a 50% drawdown on that trade it would only be a 10% drawdown on their total portfolio.

      1. bluebull

        Yes, one may have wanted to stop out or not. However, the official SMT portfolio did not stop out, you personally did not stop out and no stop was listed on the position in the official SMT portfolio. So earlier this morning when you say “we stopped out ” at 1275, again you nor the SMT portfolio did not do so. And the warnings about only putting a small part of one’s portfolio in the metals surfaced AFTER this JNUG debacle occurred. Remember all of your “baby bull” comments? That some of the greatest gains are made in the early baby bull phase of the market? Surely Mr. Gary Savage would never just put a small part of his portfolio in such an early powerful advance in any market., let alone precious metals LOL.

        1. vin

          labu is positive while the nasdaq is still down! Can you understand what will happen to labu when nasdaq goes to 20k!

          I guess you can’t. You can’t even figure out what is in your hands. If you have too much difficulty, taste both and you will find out. It shouldn’t be that hard for a smart one like yourself. LOL!

    2. ziasDad

      Day trading is defined as trading with the intention of closing the trade the same day, or at most a couple of days. Swing trading is defined as trading with the intention of holding positions for many days or weeks, several weeks being the most likely.

      You can be a swing trader and end up closing out a new position the same day if your stops are hit or if the market does something after you open your position that changes your mind about future direction of the market.

      So the fact that Gary has opened and closed position in the same day does not make him a day trader. It just makes him cautious or prudent on that particular market.

    3. Idontknowwhatimtalkingabout

      True he didnt sell at 1275, only closed the portfolio tracking. . It’s in the comments section, “only idiots sell at bottoms”. Then jnug continued to fall.

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t think I would assume that the DCL is going to occur today, it might but it’s usually safer to wait for at least a swing before you start buying, rather than trying to anticipate a bottom.

      1. Jelly Belly

        Thanks for the reply. To clarify my question: I want to buy SM and just ride it to NASDAQ gets to 10,000. I see two options: (1) Buy after the swing after the DCL forms , or (2) Wait for the next anticipated ICL . Do you have any suggestions as to which would be the better strategy?
        Thanks

  46. JJHarmen

    The European markets took quite a beating today. Does anyone think the Americans will allow them to take the lead into a sizable correction? After the morning sell off, expect yet another rescue rally.

  47. JJHarmen

    And like every other day, gold and silver have an early morning dump. Very regular movements I would say. Must be the fiber.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’m going to disagree. I think the metals have begun the third leg of their secular bull market and it will start to accelerate once the dollar confirms a new bear market by breaking down out of the megaphone pattern.

      1. ocram

        This is what I’m hoping for Gary.
        If you will be right the next leg (third) of the bull market that started in 2001 will be for the history books,but we cannot be sure until the old high in gold (1950) will be broken.

  51. Gary Post author

    The banks are already starting to diverge. The bottom is close, or it may have even occurred this morning.

  52. Don

    Dennis Gartman has declared that a bear market has begun. There is no commentator that I know of that is wrong as much that clown. Say, primetime, the next time you are chatting with Pedestrian, do you think you could ask him where the stock market is going from here? I would really like to know.

    1. ziasDad

      How long ago did Gartman make this declaration? Recently he flipped, said he was wrong about equities and closed his shorts. Is this declaration of a bear market something that he said within the past week or so, or something he came out with months ago?

      1. ziasDad

        nevermind, I found an article dated 11/15/17 where he’s saying, yep, it’s a bear. So we’ll soon see new highs!

  53. Don

    Bond yields have been climbing sharply, just the opposite of what would be expected during a time of rising rates but that’s how markets work. Human logic ensures that the majority will always lose.

    1. MagnuM

      Shouldn’t that happen though? If rates are going up, bond holders require to be paid more for holding debt?

      1. Don

        I got that wrong Magnum. TLT has been rising meaning bond yields are FALLING, not going up as I said. My mistake.

  54. JJHarmen

    The morning sell off lasted 9 minutes before a rescue rally commenced. I think we will be testing the day’s lows again later in the day.

    1. vin

      jj I don’t understand the mechanism and/or who does what. But, I can tell you that there some out there with VERY deep pockets and they don’t mind playing the game. Incredible! Not in one but in maaaany stocks. What chance a small ones have under these conditions?

      1. vin

        Don, you are the smart one. You tell us. I am here to learn from the smart ones. Unfortunately I am stuck with labu.

        But, I have done well with tqqq, soxl and hqu (tsx). What would you advise at this juncture? Or, what are you doing now?

    2. Nada

      That was huge volume in LABU yesterday Vin. That is exactly what you want to see in 3x and now you are seeing the reversal. Typically bios lead corrections (down and up), so SM may have in fact printed its DCL. What was your entry if you don’t mind me asking?

      2. vin

        Nada, my entry point fo rlabu is very high: about 88
        tqqq: bought at 105.85 sold at 131.5
        hqu bought at 48.48 sold at 54.06
        soxl bought at 134.19 sold at 162,7
        gdx bought options(23)
        gdxj bought options(33)

      3. isavage

        Hi Nada

        i was able to buy in at LABU 63.25 yesterday. been averaging in on the way down starting form 73 at the channel resistance.

        my order was filed at 63.25 placed off a Fib retracement to the 78%

        2. vin

          I wish you luck. 63.25 looks like an excellent entry point to me. I would have bought more if I had the courage.

      4. vin

        btw, I just bought indl at 48.84
        I have taken this position with caution because Indian market is terrible.
        Reason I take this position is because India as a nation could be the next powerhouse. At this price it did look a good place to enter. Hence the bet.

        2. jacob2

          Now your talkin. Like it. The world shifting east. India will be a big long term winner. Don’t own INDL but IBN and just added YTRA a busted ipo. IF you can just sit on it should be huge one day. Good luck.

      5. Bluebellkid

        I beg to differ. You don’t want to see huge volume on big down days – you want to see huge volume on up days. It’s just Wednesday so there is time for LABU to print a good week. IF the low is in then you want to see LABU close in the upper half of the weekly trading range or above 67.94. It’s already shaping up to be a heavy volume week or should I say way above average.

        1. Nada

          Well I see it as a flameout and those shares went into someones hand. We have seen this behavior on the miners 3x time and time again to signal a bottom.

          1. Bluebellkid

            Heavy volume on a big move down means the sellers overwhelmed the buyers and pushed the price lower. When the bottom is in the volume will dry up indicating you have run out of sellers or if a stock bottoms and then reverses by the end of the week to close in the upper half that is a good sign. For LABU Friday’s close will tell the tale whether the bottom might be in or there is more downside.

  56. isavage

    Gary i wanted to confirm your call on oil after your last post. The target is $61- 62 in WTI & not Brent oil & you look for further weakness now before moving up to that target correct?

  57. isavage

    Thanks guys! We all need good fortune here 🙂

    Yes LABU is a wild ride every time. i wish to i had more courage to buy bigger amount. But i have learned to buy LABD fast to hedge if necessary & not over buy keeping position size not to large.

  58. Alexandru Popovici

    Gary,
    Eurusd has not violated the prior top of 1.1880, so I’ll re-short eurusd tomorrow on a swing high.
    On the other hand, eurusd is stretched and, after a 1-2-day retracement to 10dma it may swing higher and touch 1.1881 in a bearish divergence with oscillators and then…euro’s ICL was last week and all mentioned above should develop.
    let’s see …

  59. isavage

    Call me crazy but im trusting Gary 100% on this call for USD/EUR reversal. i have learned to do so after regretting not following though on his calls before when the chart convinced me that we were going the other way.

    Therefore added to EUR short & added to SLVD on the spike this morning & continue to hold JDST as hedge to JNUG

  60. THC

    Miners not cooperating this metaldump, i should probably unload my DUST b4 close.
    Previous IBB resistance seems to provide support now. Adding more LABU here.

    1. Nada

      They will. GLD GDX were sold yesterday by the algos at close, but they bought GDXJ. I suspect they dump at close or possibly they already have.

  61. MagnuM

    I bet Trump is personally buying every dip with his own money, just so he can tweet about how great the markets are doing later!

  63. Nada

    Might as well. Gary said 500 will be a piece of cake and 1000 is not out of the question 🙂

    However, most retailers will be able to hold due to the massive drawdowns that will occur along the way. Only someone conditioned with positive association to DD’s will be able to accomplish. I suggest you start practicing now. Enter market order and at the first tick in red, start positive association. Goild likes wine as an example. Me? I prefer prescription pain medication. Now when I experience DD it is an instant opioid pleasure response. I have grown to LOVE DD.

    2. vin

      Nada please stand corrected. Gary has said that it will go 2000 and NOT 500. He had said 500 before the 4 to 1 reverse split.

    1. Nada

      Goild, why here? If the dollar is putting in a DCL, then gold should begin the hunt for an ICL. I closed out all longs and went short yesterday and added shorts at 1288. I was subscribing to the idea gold would gap fill before ICL, but clearly that is not happening.

      I have a feeling Christian is about to show up 🙂

        1. Nada

          His feelings got trampled on when Gary banned him for a week. He is a sweet kid, I am sure he will be back. He is just playing hard to get to make Gary second guess his decision 🙂

        1. Nada

          LOL, before you know it.. I will turn into super beak Spanky and start posting 100 posts a day on how the Yen is going to hell.

    2. vin

      Goild I have indulged in gdx and gdxj but I am not ready for jnug yet. I feel it will go further down. Risk ingdx is very limited. And, even gdxj should not be too bad. But jung right now?

  66. primetime

    Anyone here who has not been banned for a week and imprisoned in Mr. Savage’s solitary confinement does not understand the SM, or the world for that matter. It is a wonderful place to find your soul and true purpose in life. He has truly taught a lesson. AMEN.

    1. Nada

      Yes, you are noticeably a new man. I suspect you and Gary will become life long friends after this awakening.

      1. primetime

        I am trying not to laugh Nada because as you can tell, the sanction is a life altering event…not a joking matter!

    1. Nada

      Looks like its working great for bitcoin. In regards to SM, we may have print DCL and there is certainly a lot of negative sentiment out there.

      1. Bluebellkid

        The silver lining at this point is that volume today on the overall markets was not higher than yesterday so this does not add to the distribution day count which is already high.

        2. ras

          IBD guys keep talking about distribution days, their number, the reset criteria and so on. That is a bit complex. One can just use intraday charts for major indexes, major market etfs, vix , svxy and uvxy and so on and get independent results instead of waiting for IBD to declare market is under pressure. Svxy has been signalling for about 6 days that a market dip is in the works. Ditto gush.

          Furthermore, their approach is based on the premise that canslim criteria are both necessary and sufficient for profitable trading. In my experience, that is not correct. Canslim criteria are sufficient, which may not be necessary. I have seen many examples of this. One needs to verify the claims made by IBD under all market conditions.

  68. Goild

    Nada,

    Why here?

    Because it is easier to stand a loss of $1K to $3K and have the option to buy JNUG cheaper, than to try to catch JNUG if it jumps.
    Maybe this is a loser approach. Maybe not, the down side might be -$3 bucks, the upside can be easily +$5.

    It seems that something has changed in the market.
    A more prudent thing would be to wait after the FOMC.
    The risk then is to miss an uptrend.

  69. Goild

    The crystal ball here has some bright areas.
    Last week when JNUG was around $16.45 the ball told me
    that at least a stop run at $14.70 had to happen.
    That is what we had yesterday and today.

    The ball earlier said that GOLD was not going to continue falling that easily and a that a double bottom was likely. And yes, GOLD did not continue diving.

    Hey this is SMT talk!
    Rather that ANT lunch talk.

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