137 thoughts on “Finally a Correction?

  1. Carl

    I had sold half of my spy/qqq call options yesterday and bought SOXS at the premarket this morning. I was questioning myself if i should have switch back to long position. Thank you for the confirmation that it could go lower for a few days.

      1. Nada

        Yes, why I said currently. The neckline will need to be broken for confirmation of invalidation. I miss my boy, so I thought I would rub salt in his wounds when he is away. Sort of like he was doing with that burrito video – damn funny btw, especially the comment – thats not me.

        1. Gary Post author

          I actually covered that also in my nightly reports the last couple of days. The most recent dip in the dollar didn’t drop far enough to break its daily cycle trendline, so I had questions as to whether or not that was a full DCL or just a half cycle low.

          I also speculated that the dollar would follow the stock market down and they would both generate DCL’s together.

          Now we just need to see the pullback last long enough to push the five day RSI to oversold.

          1. Nada

            Good call. The SPX already has a nice tail. You really think we see selling for a true dcl duration? I have not seen that in a while but would welcome with open arms. If Dixie cracks 94, I think she is some serious trouble.

            As I was saying this morning.. For gold, she needs to break above 1288.5 on xauusd to get past the monthly resistance, then we can talk about your 1306 🙂

    1. Nada

      These cycles you talk about, must be quite different from the typical cycles discussed here. Todays move is at INTRADAY and MONTHLY resistance. That is big resistance, so a pullback is expected. What you need to pay attention to is, higher highs and lower lows.

    1. Nada

      Remember you called the top yesterday and hell even gave an exact time – London close. Who knows Jimsee, the PMs are frustrating and especially for the bears. They can’t understand why gold is not rolling over. My god, USDJPY was at 115 and gold refused to die.

      But no we have to sit here and wait for the currencies to play out. USDJPY has to do a dramatic death before we get the pop.

  2. Gary Post author

    This is starting to look like a runaway move, which is different than a parabolic bubble. A runaway move right here would imply that we have 10 or 15 more years to this bull market.

    1. Nada

      “we have 10 or 15 more years to this bull market.”

      No one knows that. Any crisis can trigger a bear at a moments notice. This bull is already old, so saying 10-15 more years in crazy talk 🙂

      1. Gary Post author

        This irrational expectation of a bear market without a catalyst is causing you to miss this move.

        Remember people said tbe same thing about the bull in 1987. It had 13 more years to run and many hundreds of percent.

        1. Nada

          First – I don’t expect bear. I said that it could occur at any time with some sort of catalyst. Trying to sit here and tell people that the bull is going to last 10-15 years is absurd. News flash, you do not have a crystal ball.

          You have a HISTORY of making outlandish predictions. You can find them all over the internet. I think you provide some sound advice on cycles and other areas, but I honestly do not believe YOU even believe what you say. But hey. it makes the site entertaining, so maybe that is all that matters.

          1. Nada

            Big money is gaming the system. They are hitting the weighted stocks in each sector with tons of capital. The advancers / decliners clearly shows this and you can take the nasdaq 100 most weighted and clearly see that is really the nasdaq 10.

            Botton line is that its not sustainable. Eventually the party is going to be over and someone is going to have to pay the bill. I say dollars to donuts, someone figures that out before the nasdaq doubles in value.

          2. Gary Post author

            About 4 years ago I said that the NASDAQ was going to test the all-time highs. People like you were telling me it was an outlandish call at the time.

            I guess it was entertaining and profitable.

            10000 is going to be a piece of cake and 20,000 isn’t out of the question. If this is a new secular bull market that still has another 10 or 15 years to run then 50,000 is going to be a piece of cake.

            Technology is expanding at an exponential rate. It doesn’t seem unreasonable that this could drive another secular bull market.

          3. Bluebellkid

            I don’t know about 4 years ago but 3 years ago you thought the SPX was going to start the Bubble Phase and it dropped from about 2069 when you made that call in late Dec. 2014 to 1810 in Feb. 2016..

          4. Gary Post author

            It was probably around the beginning or middle of 2014 that I realized the 4 year cycle had evolved into a 7 year cycle.

    2. Duuuuuude

      I am pretty sure you said you were going to keep the SMT running until the bubble in stocks and gold were finished. Glad to hear you will be around 10-15 years! LOL

    1. Nada

      They sold +2.2m shares of GDX and +425k shares of GLD. You will not see the SOS on GDX shares because it closed red. I saw the GDXJ buy at the close so not a bad sign.

      I have been tracking it for the last month or so. They are day trading the metals. The BOW/SOS have meant little in price direction.

  3. spectrum2105

    Gary –

    A true melt up bubble would have to break out of the log channel, like it did in 1999 / 2000. The log scale make a pretty convincing case for the micro management of the market by the Fed during this bull.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&st=1994-01-03&en=2017-10-30&id=p31611370773&a=553723500

    But even if Nasdaq just stays within the channel it will look like quite a ride in the next couple of years.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24COMPQ&p=W&st=1994-01-03&en=today&id=p93201018849&a=527807476

          1. Bluebellkid

            I’m just saying that the status quo will not go on for another 10-15 years given the debt levels we are currently seeing (global debt is 300% of GDP). I can believe the Bubble scenario and believe we are in one and believe that too will be resolved in the next year or so. And no I don’t know what the definition of a runaway move is – I know what exhaustions gaps are and climax runs are but not familiar with a run away move.

  4. Anthonyo

    By the way Bitcoin HAS and WILL CONTINUE to SIPHON OFF liquidity that would have gone to METALS.
    You don’t need a “RUNAWAY” whatever to do that, baby.

    With Bitcoin Futures, ETFs, AMAZON accepting Bitcoin soon, Bitcoin IRA ALL coming soon; there is no way in hell Bitcoin disappears, OK? I mean wake up and smell the coin my friend.
    You missed the HUGEST bull market in History of History! Put that feather on your cap guys!

    The more important thing here is WHY all these geniuses and analysts FORGOT TO TELL US TO BUY BITCOIN WHEN IT WAS $5 ????!!!!
    And WHY the same clique STILL INSISTS that Bitcoin will crash and evaporate ANY DAY NOW!

    YEAH SURE it has been crashing alright, but crashing UPWARD.

    Bitcoin is the biggest government and mega bank creation which eluded all of you analysts.

    1. ocram

      Bitcoin will crash as ANY insane speculation in history BUY it will not disappear at all,it will become part of the estabilishment as a digital worldwide currency.

      1. Gary Post author

        Exactly. Anthonyo is thinking the same as everyone that gets caught up in a bubble. They think that somehow the fundamentals are different this time. That the fundamentals will prevent the crash.

        But this isn’t about fundamentals. It’s about human nature. And human nature never changes.

        Bitcoin may be a viable currency but it’s still going to have to crash and burn to wipe out the insane speculation that is happening right now. Once it does then there will be a long period of consolidation while the market decides if it really is a viable technology or if it was nothing more than a tulip bulb.

    1. Anthonyo

      Bitcoin is 100% government-backed and mega-banks’ child to:
      (a) prevent or have a “controlled” collapse of currencies,
      and (b) Thwart gold from attaining astronomic peak in its price unsettling the whole financial system to the point of instability and collapse,
      and c) to get society used to digital currency, as it is a clear goal of the governments to convert ALL CASH to digital currency….this way the slightest BUY or SELL is recorded digitally and they will TAX the hell out of it…..added benefit is they will always know where the money is.

      KAPICHE? Now go back to your old Finance 101 textbook you flunked in college in 1978!
      Some peoples’ kids never learn, Jeeesh!

      1. Anthonyo

        Sheeple who do not believe bitcoin is a govt and mega bank creation.

        1. Who was the first come up with blockchain technology?NSA
        2. When did they write the 1st paper on blockchain technology? 1996 see link http://groups.csail.mit.edu/mac/classes/6.805/articles/money/nsamint/nsamint.htm
        3. When was bitcoin releases to the world ? On 18 August 2008, the domain name bitcoin.org was registered.[10] In November that year, a link to a paper authored by Satoshi Nakamoto titled Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System[11] was posted to a cryptography mailing list.[10]
        4. What was going in the world in that time frame? Global Financial Crisis- What perfect timing , create the problem then offer a “non-government” solution to come from a guy no one has ever heard of. He creates something so revolutionary did not take credit ( against human nature) or money. Most creators will still be involved to make sure their baby nurtured and grows. Players involved in the GFC , 1. Banks and 2. Govt.. Nice and neat.
        5.Why did China (non-western regime; but one of the biggest player in the economy ) ban bitcoin?

        WHO benefits from Bitcoin? You and me? NO! Go back to first grade.
        Only Governments benefit from it they will track your every trade, savings, no under the table cash anymore You shall be TAXED to DEATH baby.
        Go back to sleep now.

  5. Bob

    I think USD has to get down to ~94 to break the rising trend line and confirm a dcl. The bollinger bands are slowing it down a bit but the lower one is making way for the move – likely Friday or Monday and get the RSI(5) oversold. That should push gold up somewhat before making the dive into the icl. I’d like to see soxl dive down over the next day or two also. It can make some nice gains over a few weeks.

    1. Gary Post author

      Bitcoin is not draining liquidity away from gold. That’s just another goofy theory the gold bugs have come up with to explain why their favorite asset isn’t going up.

      It’s pretty simple. The dollar is in a counter trend rally. Once that rally is finished and the bear market begins gold will start rising again.

  6. Jimsee

    Nada – if it was easy everyone would do it 😀 All the cycles tell us is the curve of mind – or mood/interpretative framework.’

    If the currencies are for us in a bear move we can dump 100 points quickly. If not – perhaps we struggle for 10 days to drop 40 points. If we go *up* instead it should be heavily or completely retraced – just a hustler baby – never stop moving!

  7. Jimsee

    There have been 5 good gold trades for me since Nov 3 low (triple top look) – having cycles interpretation allows nuanced s/r trading both ways in all but the strongest of moves. RIght now gold looks to be holding strong but if it closes an hourly bar below Nov 9 low now I’ll short every resistance for the next 9 days,lol. Of course of it breaks Nov9 hi – I’ll be buying support for scalps too 🙂 Too much fun !

  8. zkotpen

    Gary,

    “About 4 years ago..,”

    Sorry mate, but I’m going to concur with Blue Bell Kid — no way on earth you were talking about a stock market bubble in 2013.

    4 years ago, Jan 1-Dec 31, 2013, all year long, you were talking only about “manipulation” holding only one direction for the stock market:

    Down!

    1. Gary Post author

      You are talking about gold and we’re talking about the stock market???

      We already have proof that gold was manipulated. That argument was put to rest months and months ago.

      1. Gary Post author

        I specifically remember telling Al and Cory on the Korelin report at least as far back as 2014 that the Nasdaq was going to reach the all-time highs. That was almost 4 years ago.

  9. jyoung3759

    The 20 day cycle low comes in Friday or monday so not much correction in my opinion. That is a shorter cycle low. Maybe down to low 2540s then right back up to test 2520 by next week’s end. We need some correction to push price higher. The dollar is already getting near oversold and it has basically been in a consolidation range so probably won’t break the trend either and if so it will be a false breakdown as it had more room s to run overall. Nobody know where it goes but those are my thought based on cycles and expeed behavior.

  10. vin

    WOW! Thanks Gary for the excellent presentation. You are probably the smartest financial adviser that there is, Keep up the good work Man. But, how do you do it? You always seem to know in advance whether it is a vertical up market or it is the 10 to 15 rise.

    I was very happy about the “piece of cake” 10k ,but now I am really …. really excited about 50k nasdaq, I think I am going to be rich. Even more exciting about your latest version is that there is some hope for labu.

    Have a nice day.

  11. isavage

    Good morning everyone.

    Evening from the UK, the gap is filled on the DAX Index & my guess is we are done selling for the day bar any “big news” event. rip in to the close & next week down we go or the run away move continues.

      1. Jimsee

        Nada – no sites – I once described the process to learn this stuff – it’s up to the trader to put in the time/energy/commitment. The Nov9 was an obvious call, Nov2 was a tough call – it’s somewhat interpretative – no holy grail of mathematical exactitude – just the results are close *enough* to it for me. I do enjoy hearing all the ‘experts’ opine on what a cycle is or isn’t, what a pattern means,etc… lol – get back to me in a decade of actually using your brain.

        I would say learning all the methods taught by various ‘experts’ is valuable in that that time is at least spent focusing your mind on the markets – and then coming out the other side to realize that you can do better yourself than almost all of the experts (even the good ones) – then the light begins to glow brighter.

      1. Lenapowich

        Things were looking real good for gold this morning with the dollar down and then , boom!! Another rug pull. Seriously, isn’t this nonsense getting old? GDXJ crumbling again.

  12. Lenapowich

    Things were looking real good for gold this morning with the dollar down and then , boom!! Another rug pull. Seriously, isn’t this nonsense getting old? GDXJ crumbling again.

          1. Lenapowich

            Well, DUH, I would like the price to go up instead of sideways or down! Of course I will buy more but only if the price goes down another 10% or so. That’s called averaging down, in case you didn’t know that. I have enough into GDXJ at these prices.
            Magnum, are you playing dumb to get my attention or are you really not very smart? Either way, you would not be my type.

  13. Nada

    I am not sure if it was a shakeout, but it was odd because yields popped and then UJ and dixie got a bid. 30,000 contracts dumped in a 1m tf according to zerohedge. I was not watching time and sales at the time it occurred and data and since timed out.

  14. Don

    Sometimes gold recovers after one of those big dumps but all too often , we get further weakness in the following days and weeks. I am out of the pm market for now.

  15. Americano

    I spit out my coffee this morning after reading Gary wrote
    “Bitcoin May be a viable currency”
    Is it just me or is their a turning going on from previous?
    Wait till spring. Bitcoin ( as I’ve always said) won’t EVEN START till 2018.
    CME futures start soon. They are cash settled.
    HoneyBadger of Money vs CME
    Let’s see how the pros of manipulating a LIMITLESS , UNAUDITABLE, Essentially UNDELIVERABLE like gold do with the 16.5 million existance (21 million cap, 1800 per day made until 2020 when 900 per day- 2024 450 per day made) Bitcoin handle it. Also all Bitcoin transactions a publicly verifiable ( no refunds returns) on ledger that uses the same amount of electricity per day that the country of Ireland does for security.
    To counterfeit one bitcoin would cost $30 Billion.
    I want to see this showdown. If Bitcoin wins it will tell me that the 8 trillion value of gold was a mirage. That there is a TON of it that a lot of people don’t even want – or way too much for the demand that exists.
    I have an open mind about this but my bet is Bitcoin $15K June. $25K EOY 2018.

    1. Anthonyo

      Americano, the coffee you spat out upon this shocking revelation…Was it by any chance an Americano??

      Just saying.

      That bitcoin will buy a TON of Americanos my friend.

    1. vin

      Troy, I am sorry to hear that. As Gary has said repeatedly gold in not out of the woods yet.

      I am NOT a knowledgeable investor or a gambler for that matter. But in IMHO jnug is neither a buy nor a sell at this point. If I did have any serious bet in jnug I would keep it.

      Additionally, I feel that it is nice to have someone to advise me. But, in the end it is my money and only I am responsible for it. Talk is cheap, and positions change at the drop of a hat.

      I wish the best.

  16. Gary Post author

    I tried to warn people that during the declining phase of an intermediate cycle price doesn’t stay overbought very long before turning back down.

    That being said, I doubt we are done with the whipsaws just yet. Maybe one more week of back and forth to fleece both bulls and bears before the real decline into the ICL begins.

    For over a month now the metals have just been stuck whipsawing back and forth. Too many people are stuck in this mess trying to pick a direction when there is none. This is the kind of market where it’s best to sit on the sidelines and let the machines battle it out.

    1. jyoung3759

      Generally, people are trading their emotions and not a strategy. That is a sure fire recipe for draining your account. It is a hard lesson to learn that some never do. People seem more interested in proving you wrong every step of the way instead of listening to what you are saying which generally makes sense. It’s not as if you give you opinion without a sound reasoning and that you will always be right. Individuals need to combine your insight with their own work and have a plan. If you are long on Gold then you simply have your own agenda and Gary’s advice obviously means squat so stop complaining when things go splat. I will reiterate what I said earlier. Thi is likely a 20 day cycle low and is behaving as expected and will bottom today or Monday and then move higher to I expect around 2620 by next week’s end before having another brief correction which is all we are going to see until end of December when we may get a 50-60 point correction and then from there take off for 2700. Gary has been spot on with the SM call as well. He’s not perfect, nobody is but you certainly can make money by listening and strategizing with his overall call of the stock market, gold, and the dollar if you stick to the overall gis of the call and stop trading your emotions or what you wish to happen.

  17. JJHarmen

    Don, you made a call a little while back about shorting TLT. Nice smash down in the past couple of days. Did you load up and do you think it will continue to slide?

  18. jyoung3759

    Weekly Gold: Momentum negative/20 Day?FLD price projection of the ICL is 1197.90
    Daily Gold: Momentum close to breakdown which will occur on a daily close below 1273.50

    So next phase is likely a continued move lower although do not read that means to 1197.90 that is the eventual target. A more reasonable move here takes us to 1235-1240 range. That is if the range breaks down. So overall you should be thinking short and trading accordingly especially any bounces that look exhausted as entry points. These are just some outlines as I see it shorter term Listen to Gary. Nobody should be long until the ICL.

  19. Gary Post author

    Don,
    I’m not sure what indicators this fella had to data mine to come up with that chart but sentiment is still pretty much neutral all around for stocks. Even the NDX COT contracts aren’t bearish yet.

  20. isavage

    Fortunately i was in DLSV for the elevator ride down as a hedge for my large AG (First Majestic) holding, took profits at the bottom and will reload as we continue the whipsaws

    1. vin

      I guess this is what happens in vertical up markets. But then ……
      It could very well be a run away market.
      Looks like the market can’t seem to make up its mind.
      We need a true Guru to know the future. Amen!

  21. Goild

    I like it!

    “jyoung3759
    November 10, 2017 at 11:33 am
    Generally, people are trading their emotions and not a strategy. ”

    Perhaps,
    Generally, people are trading between their emotions and a strategy…

    1. vin

      “Perhaps,
      Generally, people are trading between their emotions and a strategy…”
      Makes sense to me.
      Is it really possible to trade without emotions? Even the strategy one follows is based on emotions in more than one way.
      It is all subjective.

      1. Carl

        A large portion of traders are really bad or don’t know anything about technical analysis. They just trade on emotions. I call them food source, because they are the traders that provide me money on my winning trades.

  22. jyoung3759

    I politely disagree. My trading is completely objective. I will enter here, exit there. If this happens I do that if that happens then I do that all before (Profit objective/stop loss) hand all based on objective evidence and objective actin;. There are no emotions or subjectivity involved. I used to trade that way and it generally ended up in disaster overall. Was not easy to see the flaws of my ways, I tricked myself endlessly thinking I was so smart. I only started making money consistently year over year until I learned to control my inner experience and that is objective as well. In other words you control your emotions and hence your behavior to obtain an objective. BTW it is always a work in progress and temptation to go back to subjective decision making is tempting behavior always lurking. Have a great weekend everyone.

      1. Carl

        You can be disciplined and have a lot of stress, anger and relief while trading… but the entry point, stop loss and profit taking should be as far as possible from emotions.

  23. Goild

    We traders have the best intention to make money out of the market and put the best we possible can to make money. We read books, paper trade, read blogs, and to learn do not do the best: pay a profitable trader to teach us.
    Then we sort of put a strategy to trade, so there is one strategy with the best intention; however, emotions get into the way. jyoung3759 phrase above stresses how important is to differentiate between trading the system or trading emotions.
    To help controlling emotions one plays small money, or has earned a big cushion and confidence due to experience. For the average trader the key to the market riches is the time horizon. The longer it is, the better the chances to make a fortune by consistently adding small profits, and the occasional, or every so often, big profits. The well trodden saying of minimizing losses is also key.
    Our mothers do not work in the SM to help us. To make consistently money in the SM there must be a reason. Playing greatly influenced by emotions is hoping to be right. We must be in control and play intelligently.

  24. Gary Post author

    One way to take emotions out of trading is to develop a purely mechanical approach and have the discipline to execute every entry and exit exactly as the strategy demands.

    1. Carl

      Create a strategy and follow it. Look at the chart, identify your entry point, your stop loss and profit target. Always sell a third or half of your position when you reach a certain target. Your stop loss does not have to be static, you can modify them with a trend line or MA. On winning trade, i often sell half of my position next to a key resistance and put my stop loss on 10 MA.

      Sometimes i have a lot of stress, the stock is not moving exactly as i planned, but with key numbers in mind and sharp chart analysis and… experience… i reduce my money lost and end up with big profit in the long run.

  25. jacob2

    A purely mechanistic non emotional trading strategy already stands perfected, ALGO’s.

    Millions if not billions invested by the best and brightest over decades concluded that the only way to take emtion out of trading and maintain consistency was to the eliminate the humans. It’s man vs machine in todays markets and guess whose the big winner?

    Be careful what you wish for.

    1. Carl

      Algos… they are created by human. They have the advantage of being purely mathematics. But if you are bright, you will surpass any machine. There is too many parameter often based on other human emotion that can’t be written in codes.

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