207 thoughts on “BASING PHASE ENDING

  1. faz

    Gary I found myself looking at that GDX chart in your video and wondering if the second half of 2015 was also a basing pattern. A back-of-the-envelope summary – just looking at the horiz/vertical graphpaper lines in the background – that basing pattern lasted two squares and was followed by a rise of about 7 and a half squares. So, getting a bit giddy here thinking if the coming rise is going to be proportionately larger given that the basing pattern has been twice has long. At a rough guess this would take the GDX chart up to the 60’s ? I guess I should remember that last year was the baby bull and so the coming rise can’t be as fast and furious as that was. Nevertheless, exciting times… Good weekend.

  2. Jim Dandy

    Very interesting video. If somebody has not already taken a starter position (or if they have), when do you look to get heavy? Would it be the next daily cycle low, or do traders here add into strength once they are up on positions?

    1. Jim Dandy

      Also interesting that Gary´s call here that the bull is resuming in miners coincides with another great newsletter writer´s outlook. Uncanny, and has me wanting more miners!

    2. Gary Post author

      The time to buy is when you are scared.

      I try to enter full positions as close to the DCL as possible. That way my stop is close.

      If one waits until their emotions give them the all clear then your stop is going to be a long ways away.

  3. Nada

    Gold broke out from the flagging position via the 1h chart I posted yesterday – buy the breakout. Will post chart when I am off mobile.

  4. zkotpen


    “Gold is still in a bear 🙂 a nice rally from here yes, but it will be shortlived imo.
    A STORM is coming and it will drag down Gold as well.”

    I’m on board with you — looking at GDX “Intermediate” low as wave D of triangle complete on 12/12. Looks like the same pattern for silver. Gold is doing something else — maybe a flat or something — but corrective 2017 rally either way.

    As for the “nice rally” — maybe. Wave E can be tricky, especially if it turns out to be a triangle itself.

    1. zkotpen


      So now that you’ve bought your long metals position at the 12/12 ICL, have you already entered a limit order to take profits in the neighborhood of your targets and proceeding to turn the computer off and go climbing for the next 4 months?

  5. Gary Post author

    Folks you have witnessed classic human emotions in action again.

    At the top in September almost everyone on the forum here was bullish. I was pretty much the lone voice suggesting to take profits. I got nervous when everyone else was greedy. When others want it badly you have to give it to them.

    Now we’ve switched 180 degrees. We’re seeing the calls for a bear market again. Everyone wants to give their shares away. When they want to give away their stock this badly you should take it from them.

    So end result. We sold at the top and we bought at the bottom … again.

    I’ll say it again and maybe a few of you will begin to understand: If you want to succeed in this business you have to behave differently than 90% of the rest of investors. You have to sell when everyone else is greedy and you have to buy when everyone else is scared.

    You are never going to make any consistent money listening to the EW counts, channel strategies, mathematical nonsense, chart patterns, markers, fractals, etc., etc.

    The way to make money is to do the opposite of what everyone else does.

      1. taco

        Agree cover gold short almost a bottom, I trade futures, long euro last night. was long oil, waiting for top now.

        1. Rango

          BTW shouldn’t we see big volume in 3x etf like NUGT and JNUG at GDX bottom?

          I don’t see yet big volume spike in 3x funds yet.

          Just poiting out some things that previously showed up at bottoms in gold and miners. Thoughts Gary and guys?

      1. Gary Post author

        The bullish percent is an oscillator. It’s not a sentiment chart. For that you will need a subscription to sentimentrader.com

        1. Rango

          Gary , I would but anyway you can discount your subscription to like $150/year.
          I can’t afford $500.

          I understand you tried to price out trolls with $500 subscription but you also priced out lots of middle class ppl and your target is middle class ppl not high net worth traders.

          1. Gary Post author

            $50 per month is pretty reasonable. I suspect you spend more than that on a night out with the wife and kids.

  6. Nada


    As we were discussing last night on the IC timing, please see my chart on previous IC durations. As I suggested, it was something in the back of my mind. While we are certainly in the band, previous ICs lasted around 143 bars or +200 days. I will defer to you for cycle logic as your experience is much broader than mine. Cheers

  7. LeilaniFarms

    Thank you Gary for the video update. Looks like waiting on the sidelines for 9 months paid off, timing is everything when entering leveraged positions and I must say you have nailed it.

    I’m extremely happy with my entry point for JNUG @ 12.67 on 12/12.

    When we look back in a few months it will be clear that 12/12 was the EXACT bottom for 2017 and our timing is / was spot on. Unfortunately, I already know the perma bears such as Mustang Sally, zKotpen, as well as a few others will not be humble enough to admit that they were wrong and that some of us actually do know what we are talking about.

    Oh well, the real loss for them will be not only money lost for being on the wrong side of the trade, but lost opportunity staring them in the face right here right now.

    Happy Trading!

  8. primetime

    If Nasdaq 10,000 piece of cake, why bail on TQQQ so quickly? The second/minute/hour/day/week trading just seems to be a lot of work.

    1. Gary Post author

      Too late in the intermediate cycle to stay leveraged.

      We made plenty of money. It’s time to deleverage and stay in unleveraged ETF’s until the next ICL.

  9. mustang sally

    Morning All

    Sorry to break up the party, but gold can’t get above 1260. and usd is still above 93.60 and hgd is still above 10. Not good in my books

    Shortin Sally

    1. Nada

      I did get above 1260. It went to 1264.5 before running into fib resistance. Baby steps MS. So far, making lower lows and higher highs. Yes, as mentioned yesterday.. Dollar is something that needs to be watched closely. Do you see a pattern here two toes? You are unable to factor in alternate scenarios, because you are blindsides by your tunnel vision. This is why you hung your hat in shame last July, crawled under your retirement bridge and waited for gold to correct after rising over 150 handles. You thought enough time passed and you return looking like a hero. Make no mistake MS, that BS doesn’t fly on SMT.

      1. mustang sally

        Nadia, what ever makes you feel better, my last comment to you is holding on to a position which you feel is right a bad trading move . If I had behaved like you I would of lost on the trade, but for me I am still positive

        See you later Nadia


        1. Nada

          Like you did twinkle toes as you held JDST from the ICL to the Top of the IC? Made possible by a paper account. Like I said MS, your days here are numbered. You will soon slip back under your bridge.

    2. Herman

      As Gary says, it will take some time for gold to get traction. The swing low signals the sellers are done, does not mean it will go up straight after that.

  10. primetime

    Dollar is going up, makes me wonder how long we will beat this gold drum. Like I said everyone will be bailing in a month if that long.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s always tough to hang on at the beginning of new intermediate cycles in gold.

      Gold doesn’t come out of ICL’s like stocks do. It often churns knocking traders off before getting any upside traction. This is probably in part manipulation by the banks to allow them to build full positions before the real move begins.

      If they can hold the sector down for a week or so and get everyone to cough up their shares they can get in at the exact bottom before they release the sector to begin the new cycle.

        1. Jim Dandy


          Are you fully loaded already, or still have some dry powder? I find having some funds to go shopping helps with the psychology and lets me take advantage of sales that occur every now and then. 🙂

          1. primetime

            I am 75% loaded between TQQQ, multiple miners (heavy in GPL, MUX, AG, and CDE), USLV, JNUG, and some commodities (getting hammered like a drunken sailor in NG). I have been buying what I thought were sales for the long basing phase, against advice from Gary, and do have that last 25% dry powder for the final fire sale.

          2. Jim Dandy

            Nice, I am not in the leveraged etfs yet, might not get them at all, but also own MUX (added yesterday and into today´s pullback), I like the McEwen doesn´t hedge metals prices and he also doesn´t dilute bc he has a couple hundred million of his own money involved, unless for a very good reason like the recent purchase of Black Fox which really was a steal.

            I find with the silver stocks they are so volatile and I can´t keep up with all the management decisions, that I use the SILJ etf. Being named a silver junior etf isn´t too accurate in my opinion as it has big holdings in both the names you mentioned alongside smaller silvers as well. I like that this etf was up almost double the HUI´s 188% in 2016, and tacked on 358% which was almost as good as my best junior mining stock but without the specific company risk.

            I have others as well, discussed yesterday was FFMGF. I also have a few fliers like SVBL, IRVRF, and GLDLF, but they are much smaller amounts invested.

            Good luck!!

          3. Jim Dandy

            I meant to say SILJ has all 3 of the silvers you mentioned. Lastly, I have roughly 50% cash to add into a pullback, but only after I have positive marks. I would consider JNUG, silver futures, or just add to current holdings.

          4. primetime

            I will look at that SILJ and maybe consider some reallocation. I hold a FFMGF position in one childs IRA. FFMGF Risk/reward looks favorable as with MUX. Should be huge. Do you think or know if the miners have held back product at these low prices? I think GPL has.
            Good Luck with that 50% cash position…the catbird seat for sure.

      1. Jim Dandy

        Not a prediction, but I won´t be surprised if miners close stronger again, like yesterday. That was also common in the 2016 bull, every day they wanted to be weak there was no follow through to the downside and they just got bought up.

        Of course it´s too soon to tell if that action will repeat, but it did yesterday.

    1. Gary Post author

      It’s up to you to get confirmation. If you don’t get it by the close of day it means I never received the email and you need to send again.

  11. Herman

    I tend to think gold now is correcting the bigger move up, from 1238 to 1262. Possible target 1253 (.38), but maybe all the way down to 1247 (.63).

      1. Herman

        I think we are almost done with the small correction in gold, one more spike down, to the 1253 level, and then a more sustained move higher on Monday? So far, the retracements are shallow, which can be seen as promising.

    1. Nada

      * when I say lower low, that is compared to this weeks option data vs next week. To be clear, this does not suggest gold does not go lower, just that the expected range is expanding to the upside vs downside – that is what is relevant.

  12. zkotpen


    “I don’t have a set target.”

    1400-1450; 30-32 for gold and GDX, respectively

    March 28 calls are 6 cents;
    June 28 calls are 23 cents 😉

    1. Lenapowich

      Zkotpen, where is your tag team alter ego buddy, Pedestrian? Don’t you think he should get equal time?

  13. LeilaniFarms

    For those of you who tend to find yourself on the wrong side of the trade over and over again. Tired of buying at the top or very close to it only to watch price collapse and then you scramble to sell at the bottom? Well, think about this for a moment, have you ever heard the saying “Practice Makes Perfect” ? Well, it actually doesn’t. PRACTICE MAKES PERMANENT. If you practice kicking a soccer ball over and over the wrong way does it now mean you have a perfect kick?

    Same thing goes for trading, you can be in and out of the markets all the time, you can analyze all you want, you can use all sorts of indicators and “markers” until you are blue in the face, but the fact of the matter is none of that matters if you are DOING IT WRONG.

    Shortin Sally, I’m gonna tell you right now you will be eating your words before the end of the year, but more importantly, you will be kicking yourself (again!) for missing out on big gains because you learned to trade the wrong way. Practice makes permanent, not perfect. Just because your nephew programmed a computer based trading program doesn’t mean it will be profitable There are hundreds of thousands of Expert Advisors (automated trading systems) floating around on the web, and 99% of them are garbage.

    I will be taking notes to see how long it takes each of you Perma Bears to realize we are no longer in a bear market. The more price moves up, the more excuses will be posted, and the more entertaining it will be. Fire up the popcorn!

    1. primetime

      I like that, Practice makes permanent. Us old timers would refer to it as you play the way you practice, loaf in practice and loaf in the game.

      And also, are you always this confident in all your calls? Or just this one. You seem very sure of a yuuuge gain. I am on board, and as you know I have been. So I would love for you to right.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Well, I hopped into the miners back in February 2016 and got out with some very nice gains. Made some more on the way down early October 2016 got out. Bought 1 more time only for price to crash hard December 2016, held on and got out with minimal losses in February 2017.

        So in 2016 and 2017 I’ve only placed a total of maybe 4 trades in the Metals & Miners.

        I’ve been patiently waiting on the sidelines since February of this year for confirmation of the next leg up in the metals and miners. We had it on 12/12. Knowing when not to trade is just as important as knowing when to trade, we don’t always have to be in the markets.

        I don’t think I’m better than anybody else but I’ve traded currency markets full-time for 2 years and overall have been profitable.

        As time goes on reading charts just gets easier and easier, in fact, at this point in time, it is crystal clear we touched the bottom and on 12/12 I bought 318 shares ($4k) of JNUG with a 5-6 month time frame.

        So far so good.

    2. Lenapowich

      Leilanafarms, that was well put. Practice does not always result in perfection. Your thinking reminds me of Christian who seems to have disappeared.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Thank you Lena, I did see the name Christian pop up when I returned to this site roughly a week ago. Not sure who he is though, not sure if what you said was a compliment either. lol jk

  14. ras

    Not interested in labels: bull/bear. Just float with price. nugt stalls at declining ma 20. A bit of consolidation before the next upswing? A trading market for a while until price breaks loose from tight formation?

  15. didier

    Can someone give some advice: if buying gdx calls: march or june (april i don’t see in the list) and wich strike? Thanks.

  16. mustang sally

    Afternoon; It appears everyone is a raving bull today, I would be a little concerned if 29.50 dust and 10.33 hgd breaks today, you could be swimming underwater if you hold on today. esp you Mr, Farm


    1. LeilaniFarms

      Lol really? I’m holding JNUG @ 12.67

      First of all, there’s no way GDXJ is going down 3% today so I will still be green during this healthy consolidation period in the miners.

      Second, I’ve got a 5-6 month time frame as I am a Swing / Position trader. I don’t try to trade the lower time frames. Maybe try and zoom out from the 5 Min chart and watch the Daily. It will be so much more beneficial.

      Also, stop talking about technical analysis on DUST / JNUG, these are 3x leveraged funds. You must track the funds such as GDXJ as well as the precious metals themselves otherwise you are kicking that soccer ball wrong over and over and over.

      Best of luck Shortin Sally!

      1. mustang sally

        Just sayin Mr, Farm you seem very sure of yourself , just watch those numbers they are mable markers

        Shall we watch

        Shortin Sally

  17. Alexandru Popovici

    In the end of your video you suggest that gold/miners have just set an YCL this week.
    How do you reconcile that with EUR’s YC ?
    More precisely, EUR is more clear, thanks to its trending move, that it left just an ICL at 1.1555 last month so that a failed IC would be required to set its YCL (hence a low lower than 1.1555 ) in spring 2018.

    How would gold/miners be able to resist the fall of EUR from, say, 1.22 in Jan/Feb to below 1.1555 in April without falling below the ICL of 1238 this week?

  18. mustang sally

    Is it just me or does anyone else get a sense of a short squeeze on the dollar either today or Monday, I have a red light on gold 1155. now that would catch all the gold bugs off guard.

    Oh my if that happened.


  19. mustang sally

    Oh I forgot to add I feel left out with all this icl terminology, that I would add it would be UYA to the goldbugs if this happens

    Shortin Sally

  20. Steffmeister

    I just love the smell of a rising metals portfolio in the evening.

    I was chocked to see my largest holding up 33% in 2days 🙂


    (what is there not to like?)

    1. Jim Dandy

      I like that MUX owns 5% of the company, with option to up it to 8.68%. Must be a good company, glad I already own some through MUX.

      1. Steffmeister

        Mux is my second largest holding, I also like Leagold and Silver Bull …

        It has been a very tough year so this turn is very welcome.

        I missed Garibaldi, Novo and a few others very frustrating, sold too early. I’ve sold out some rotten eggs in time as well so a little bit of luck too.

        1. Jim Dandy

          Sounds good, I also have Silver Bull, in fact just added a couple minutes ago while somebody was offering. I had Novo before it took off and did very well with it, averaged several hundred percent but sold my last shares around $3.50, and also totally missed Garibaldi.

          I can´t tell you how happy I am to find out MUX owns some Golden Predator, another confirmation that Rob McEwen is in all the right places. I also see MUX as a relatively safe play long term as it made back most of the bear market losses in just 6 months in 2016, so I figure I can always hold it it wants to go lower first. I will add to any of my holdings when they are down, and especially SILJ and MUX.

  21. Don

    After 9 years of Zerohedge telling us how awful the economy has been, I guess it’s safe to say that ‘Tyler Durden’ got it wrong.

    1. roadrunner

      You sure he got it wrong? until trump, the preceding 8 years had growth at 2% of less. ( A new unprecedented record Yeah!!!) stagnant or falling incomes relative to real cost of living, % of population working at lowest levels in 40 years, Gov’t welfare at all levels that were the highest in history, A slave tax forcing to people to overpay for a product that most didn’t want, while chewing up a huge % of wage income, rising rents for wage earners, a YUGE student debt problem, due to poor choices by individuals and poor paying jobs.
      But you are probably right…it was the best of times.

    1. Nada

      Welcome back Don. Yes, anything and everything is bullish for the markets. I like the comment on Tyler Durden. Skewed outlook, but those boys are quick with the data and why they are a must follow.

  22. Goild

    In a day like this were JNUG is falling it is difficult to make money going long.
    Though after 4 1/2 hours of labor this ANT got paid.
    Done for the day.
    Have a nice weekend.

  23. jyoung3759

    My two cents is that Gold is not bottoming here. I have run numerous cycle analysis (over 30) that suggest this turn from what you are calling the baby bull peak will not bottom until sometime next year between earliest February into the latest in July/August time frame. Gold is a peak oriented cycle commodity and the recent peak was significant one. A February bottom would probably make a double bottom with the July level and July/August would likely equal the 2015 yearly low or lower. Gold is making a massive base that is not likely complete until early 2020. In other words it makes another range run to the bottom and then starts its ascent and probably breaks above the recent 54 month peak sometime in spring 2020. I could be wrong but this is what long term cycle analysis is suggesting and so far has been very accurate. Money can still be made but Gold is going to make a much longer base. TIme will tell.

    1. Jim Dandy

      You could be correct, but in 3 of the last four years the low in gold was in December, in the other year (2014), gold bottomed what looks like late October, so I wouldn´t bet on February bottom, especially since in 3 of the last 4 years gold was ripping higher in February. Maybe this year is different, certainly could be, but I would not bet on it with those percentages.


      1. jyoung3759

        This is a multi-year analysis that spans back to 2002 and matches closest with price action since that time. In that period half the peaks occurred in December something we are certainly not seeing right now. Only once did the peak occur in September like it likely has this year and that was in 2010 and the following year low occurred in May 2011. I think these percentages outweigh the ones you mentioned and reflect a better positioning cyclictic perspective as well in terms of price vibration. In other words the way gold has behaved this year is not the same as the past 3-4 years you ar talking about and in my opinion that is misguide. I only go by my own work. I like to listen to Gary because he is rational and understands market timing well.

    2. jacob2

      Yes, unfortunately also leaning toward a July bottom as the more likely scenario. looking for substantial insider buying in mining stocks and just don’t see much. Makes me think we have an appointment with an early summer washout. Hope the early bulls are right and I’m wrong. Good luck.

  24. isavage

    Now – Whats that say saying Friday strong PM’s & Monday sell off. well i dont see strong PM’s today so looking to buy the dip Monday or latter if we go lower than Fridays low.

    Still holding my JDST

    Crypto Stocks all going NUTS popping off everywhere hardly bothering to look at PM’s currently.

    Goild – VIX OPEX is on Wed so don’t buy any UVXY unless you want to gamble on Tax bill fails to pass event 😉

    1. Nada

      Yep makes sense. Specs reduced longs and added shorts while commercials dumped shorts and added longs 🙂

  25. Goild

    Don, isavage,

    Thank you.
    I got rid of the UVXY for a tiny profit and likely will not mess with it anymore.
    Have a nice weekend.

    1. Don

      Goild, UVXY fell for almost the entire day, closing down 6.6% and you managed to squeak out a tiny profit. Your trading skills are absolutely magical.

  26. LeilaniFarms

    Hey Everybody!

    Hope you all had a fun and successful week. A lot of times we get caught up in all of the small movements in the market from day to day, we pull up the 5 Min & 15 Min charts to see all of the action and fast moving candles. However, make sure to zoom out and keep your eyes on the bigger picture.

    I want to share the following chart with ALL of you. Please take look at this chart and come up with your own conclusions. This is a Weekly Silver Spot chart: https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjIwMDYzMF82ODI0ODgz

    Aloha everybody and I hope you all have a good weekend!

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Definitely, actually this will apply to Gold, Silver, and basically all of the miners. It is just so much clearer to see when looking at the Silver chart vs. Spot Gold.

        I also see a lot of Bullish action when looking at the Weekly Candle for most of the miners. Bullish Engulfing is definitely bullish Price Action seen as a good reversal indicator found at the end of downtrends.

        All things considered probably a good time to get LONG.

    1. Don

      Leilani: Having a chart show the same thing occurring four times in a row only increases the likelihood that it won’t do so for a fifth time although it would be nice if it did.

  27. jyoung3759

    Are you kidding me. It will usually head lower if it tests the same level four times. Not always but usually.

      1. jyoung3759

        Comment was for chart poster not you Jim? Since you obviously did not mention that . There is a reply to you comments directly below your post that addresses what you stated and this is all straightforward. I do not get flustered if someone disagrees with me. I just present the facts. I just was in disbelief of the conclusion drawn from that chart. Have a great weekend.

  28. Goild


    Here is the trade in UVXY

    UVXY FILLED AT $10.2567 Market Buy 334 at Market Day 02:32:07 PM 12/15/2017
    UVXY FILLED AT $10.305 Market Sell 334 at Market Day 02:35:58 PM 12/15/2017

  29. jyoung3759

    That chart actually just confirms my thoughts we have not seen the bottom in Silver or Gold. Thank you!

    1. faz

      LOL I was looking at the fact that the silver miners like First Majestic and Fortuna Silver had minor rocket launches recently. Thanks for the dissenting voice – but I hope you are wrong as I’m pretty much out of dry powder now.

  30. jyoung3759

    Personally you should be looking to short the next lower peak as that will likely follow through to the downside if that is what happens. The trade is not long. Like Gary says you have to think differently than the 90%.

      1. jyoung3759

        I am suggesting nothing, simply presenting a different perspective based on thorough chart analysis. Does not mean I am right. I only care about making money not being right. Being right always cost you money. I gave up being right long ago. Have a great weekend Nada

      2. vin

        No need to get confused over such a simple matter. There are only three possibilities, namely
        1. up
        2. down
        3. sideways
        A smart analyst will tell you that (s)he follows the market and based on charts, channels, cycles, emotion, manipulation it can be seen that under certain conditions the market is slated to go up.

        And, if doesn’t then a “recalculation” will show that the market is slated go down.

        And, if doesn’t go down then we all know that charts don’t lie, there must be dammed outside interference.

        In short, a good analyst can never been proven wrong specially if the person follows cycles/emotions and can draw random line on a chart to prove the point after fact. Because “everyone makes mistakes”.


        1. Gary Post author

          A shrewd analyst gives all possibilities and then claims victory when one of them plays out. A shrewd analyst offers up lots and lots of trades everyday. Why? Because 90% of retail traders that buy newsletters are gamblers and they are looking for a fix everyday. A shrewd analyst knows this is how one sells newsletters by giving people their fix.

          Almost no analysts will give you actual real time trades. That would leave one open to criticism when they get a call wrong. But a real analyst will make real time trades and take the winners with the losers.

          There are lots and lots of shrewd analysts. There are very very few real analysts.
          This is why no other newsletter writer has entered the challenge other than me. 🙂

  31. ted

    Wow, people are salivating for Gold and miners. But all I see is a stop on the road to perdition.

    In the meantime, the crypto’s are so darn bullish all the way around. But the Gold bugs won’t touch it because they are stubborn or believe it’s too high.

    Too bad. BTC is going $20,000+ next week. It went $10,000 just a couple weeks ago. $40,000 next month. And you will all be nipping at JNUG @ $12, 11, 10… Sad.

    1. Nada

      We are truly blessed. Live from his parents basement, Hipster Millennial Ted is once again offering up free financial advice.

      1. Gary Post author

        He has none. So it doesn’t matter how high it goes, he’s going to hold too long and lose it all when it crashes.

        Human nature never changes. Issac Newton couldn’t control greed (neither could Druckenmiller at the tech bubble top) . Do you really think Ted will?

        1. Jim Dandy

          Exactly, he won´t cash out until it bouncing around the bottom for 2 or three years and he decides its never going up again, so spends it on beer money or gasoline.

  32. Gary Post author

    The action in the currencies today suggest they have entered triangles.

    That probably means gold will be stuck going sideways for a bit until the currencies break out of their triangles.

    During this period stocks should rally into their IC top. The most likely target is 25400-25600 on the Dow. I’ll go over in detail how I arrived at these targets in the weekend report.

    1. vin

      I agree with you Gary. If golds don’t go down then they are stuck here (sideways) till they go up.

      In the meantime the SM is going vertically up, nasdaq at 10k by june/junly and then soon headed to 20k. So, why should one invest in PM? Beats me. Thank you for keeping us in line, Gary.

      People get too excited too quickly for too little.

  33. jyoung3759

    Let me say just one more thing.

    I have no idea what will happen next, but I analyze and watch for an opportunity to occur within that analysis and when it does I act and if the analysis turns out to be wrong I do nothing and I open my mind again and search for a new opportunity based on what happened in the meantime.

    1. Nada

      Thanks for sharing jyoung3759. Always good to keep an open mind. Being dynamic as the situation unfolds is key.

  34. Don

    The miners managed to hang on to most of the gains made on Wed so I am cautiously optimistic. I think most everyone has had some junior miners that have jumped nicely and that is a good sign (that the juniors are showing promise) Monday will be an important day. A third day down for GDX and GDXJ will be cause for concern.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Thanks for sharing Troy. I’ve been patiently waiting to see the most recent COT considering last week’s one week record change in COMEX history on the commercials’ behalf. Also, this had obviously not reflected the major sell off on 12/7 which was a bloodbath in and of itself.


      Another interesting trend change is the S&P vs Commodities which Gundlach pointed out the other day as well as Doug Casey’s after market email just today! (haha, seems as though Doug read Gundlach jk)

      Here is the chart via ZeroHedge: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-13/gundlach-reveals-his-favorite-trade-2018

      So there is a lot of confluence here at this point in time.

  35. LeilaniFarms


    The Silver Spot price is obviously not the only reason why I went long on JNUG on 12/12.

    We had higher lows than previous year 2 years in a row now. We have broken out of the multi-year downtrend in Gold & Silver which I pointed out in the charts yesterday or the day before.

    On top of that, the 2011-2015 bear market was more of a corrective retracement when you look at the monthly charts.

    1. jyoung3759

      Pardon my ignorance but I don’t even know what JNUG is. I am sure Silver will rally temporarily as weekly cycles suggest a bottom, but looking at that chart my first reaction is to watch for a lower high that is the pattern that is there right now. Not sure how you see a longer term breakout in Silver & Gold??? On a month to month basis they are rolling over and silver is likely to drop to between before it finds a bottom in my opinion. Just be careful as there are certainly no clear signals that a bottom has been put in again in my opinion. I think it is actually a very indecisive time to go long or short at this point. Somebody i respect quite a bit Mr. Jim Rogers is saying he won’t buy more gold until it gets down near $1,000.00 and he already owns a bit now but believes a better price is on the way. We shall see. I would have to see significant bullish action and then a higher low before i commit to any bottom being in. Gold or Silver. Might b e your being affected by too much of that pure gold if your name has anything to do with Albany Oregon??

        1. Gary Post author

          This is where the longer term cycles can be very helpful. Jim will be waiting a long long time for gold to go under $1000. It probably never will.

          The last 8 YCL came in Dec. 2015. The next one isn’t due until 2023. So to expect a lower low in 2018, it just ain’t going to happen.

          Jim really hasn’t made a good market call in a long time. I suspect Soros was the brains behind that partnership. Jim is just a good historian but pretty worthless as a trader.

          1. jyoung3759

            I do not think it will either but you do realize that prices can continue to break down regardless of the 8 year cycle as there are even longer cycles that affect price movement so to expect prices to be higher solely based on the 8 year cycle is not always going to turn out the way you think it will. While you will generally be right the 16 year cycle just peaked and is turning lower and it is surely possible it will mute any rise of the 8 year cycle. Jim doesn’t ever make market calls but he is a good historian. I am not expecting a lower low but the possibility of a muted cycle looks very real and the analysis is not really about price levels but timing and February through July still stands out as timing for a bottom and until we break higher 1365-1380 that stands in my opinion. You need a higher bottom first then a rally than a secondary highe bottom then you can say a low is in until that time it is nothing more than pure speculation on yours or my part. I m not feeling particularly fearful about gold at the moment so I’ll wait for more fear if you will.

      1. RTTPD

        Silver at 11/12? I just paid 9.75 for a shitty little piece of plain NY Cheesecake without any fresh cherries at a restaurant in the beltway. That just doesn’t make sense.

        And I’ve watched Roger’s at least 20 times on YT. He always says the same thing : We’re falling off the cliff…..We’re on the edge of collapse – but I wanna buy gold at a 1000 bucks.

        1. Jim Dandy

          Agree with everything you said. Jim Rogers never makes calls for the next two or three years, he is talking decades. It´s why he moved to Singapore.

          I like him because he admits he is the world´s worst trader, even as he sees very long term trends in place.

        2. jyoung3759

          I love your analogy and complaint but unfortunately the two are not related A piece of cheesecake at the Cheesecake Factory was $7.00-$8.00 in 2008 and still pretty much the same today and when Silver was near $50 in 2011. BTW Silver fell to $8.40 in 2008 before making a run to near $50 3 years later so why would it be hard for it to fall another 30% or so here? Maybe it will maybe it won’t That price is just a level it could fall to if it meets projected extension targets. Certainly does not mean it will. I am into cycle analysis and while it is not always correct provides a very good and reliable price pattern once you have locked into the recent vibration. That is the information I present. Others are certainly free to their own devices and conclusions and the wonderful thing about life is you are free to ignore whatever I say and just place me in the idiot poster can if you will. I am making no recommendations to trade anything just presenting cycle based information. As Pat Forde says “Feel free to disagree.” Cheers to all.

      2. LeilaniFarms

        Great, you know how to use Google. I’m proud of you. If you need bulk cannabis you know where to find me. 🤙🏼

        I’ve stated my positions and backed them with charts, happy trading!

        1. jyoung3759

          Could you be so kind to post those charts. I must have missed them because with gold and silver heading lower I do not see how you come up with a multi-year breakout? I am curious Or at least direct me to the topic they are listed under.

  36. palobar

    Gold managed to close an impressive $0.80 higher than yesterday, yet if you read most of the comments it feels like as if gold made new all-time highs today. How are going to handle the trade if gold goes to $2000? How are you going to find the courage to buy gold if it breaks the July’17 low? We have a strong time window here (15-16 December). So, how the market will respond to that next week will be the key. It is going to be an exciting week! Nice weekend to everyone.

  37. Goild

    The rise of JNUG on Wednesday was overdone. So yesterday and today there was some leveling.
    I agree next week and the following one will be quite interesting.
    The manipulators will be press to end with an awesome year and so all securities should go up.

  38. mexican

    Hello folks,
    This is the deal ? Gold will break to the upside Monday OR??? The dollar will rally with Trumps tax bill and gold will fall, OR it will stay stuck in a basing phase for a while longer,.
    My guess is gold up Monday——- Then down to complete a real ICL—– 1200 maybe even lower lets see what plays out next week. Holding Jnug Shares at 14.00 and i am out if Gold fly’s Monday—-IN CASE OF THE RUG PULL!!!!!!
    Thanks for reading.

  39. jyoung3759

    The key level for Silver to hold is 15.25 the 78.6 retracement of its prior important swing. If it closes below that level then generally it make s the extension target at 11.55 down to 10.70.

    For gold those levels are 1238 and if that breaks down immediate swing targets would 1161-1144.

    If you look you will see these levels are not arbitrary. They are established off prior swings an generally turn out to be very accurate provided break down and break out occur. If it turns out these levels hold then it is likely that price will move higher longer term. Simple objective decisions to trading not subjective or playing both sides of a trade, but considering the possibilities and then letting the market tell you what is the best course to take. Right now Gold and Silver remain in a limbo state but they have been basing since 2013 (Gold-1045-1390) and (Silver-13.60-22) and therefore have tremendous upside potential when and if they break higher. At this point there is little more to say on the subject. Please be cautious and rely on you own due diligence by assimilating all information. Watch yourself and how you react and what you do when myself and others present information. Knowing yourself and especially your weaknesses and how to identify them will make you a better trader. This information is only available to you while other info is available to just about everyone and very few are unable to capitalize on it because they do not know themselves well enough.

    The moment you compare, condemn, and judge, you have stopped the process of inquiry, of insight into yourself, and the ability to find out what is true

    Love and Appreciate not Hate and Separate each other

    Have great weekend!

  40. LeilaniFarms


    The following is my Technical Analysis for Gold / Silver using a top down approach as larger time frames hold more precedence.

    Monthly Gold – Overall 30 year trend is UP https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjIwMTk0Ml82ODI3OTY5
    I’m hoping that after looking at the Monthly chart of Gold we can ALL agree that long-term trend is up and from 2011-2015 was actually nothing more than a healthy retracement.

    Weekly Gold – https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjIwMTk0Nl82ODI3OTcz
    As you can see from the Weekly Gold chart we saw lower highs and lower lows all throughout 2011-2015 then something different happened in 2016, we made higher highs than the previous year and made higher lows from the previous year. Take a look at 2017, guess what? Gold did not make higher highs but it will be making Higher Lows unless Gold crashes $100 during the last 2 weeks.

    Now, also note the Weekly downward trendline which was respected and rejected multiple times in July 2016, November 2016, again in April 2016, then again in June 2017. Note that we have broken and closed above this Weekly downward trendline..

    Monthly & Weekly Gold Technicals tell me we are no longer in a Bear market.

    Here is the Weekly Silver chart I posted yesterday which just blows your mind at the thought of me being bullish when looking at it…I’m not going to go into any more detail on the Weekly Spot Silver. It speaks for itself. https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjIwMTk1OF82ODI3OTk1

    Let’s move down to the Daily chart for Silver showing some good Price Action at support on 12/12 with the Doji candle at the end of a pretty severe selloff. This is a good indicator of trend reversal, couple this with the fact that price alone was stretched pretty far from the D1 20 EMA & 50 EMA. It was a very low Risk / Reward trade even for short term traders as they could place stop loss BELOW the major support area which held the previous 3 times resulting in multi-week bull runs creating significant gains.

    After considering Technicals on Monthly and Weekly along with price action on the Daily for entry point. We need to consider current market sentiment. I dont want to waste anymore time backing my trade with “reasons” for you but let’s just say that when the Commercials’ made a complete 180. In fact, it was COMEX’s biggest 1 week decline in commercial short positions in HISTORY! On top of that, this change in positions DID NOT reflect the bloodbath in precious metals on 12/7. However, Troy posted the most recent COT just yesterday and guess what? It reinforces the previous week’s moves.

    Let’s look at one more indicator and let the chart speak for itself: The Gold / Silver Ratio:

    The last 3 times the Gold/Silver Ratio was at 80 was in May/June 2003 when Gold was @ $350. Went on almost exactly double and tagged $700 within the next 3 years!

    Next time Gold/Silver ratio was at 80 was November/December of 2008 Gold was @ 820. It went straight up for another 3 years. November 2011 Gold was at 1750. More than Doubled again!

    The most recent time Gold/Silver ratio was at 80 was in February of 2016. I know EVERYBODY here knows what happened then…

    So here we are again sitting close to 80 on the Gold/Silver ratio as we bounce off of important support levels for the year. All things considered, I am confident in LONG positions for Gold, Silver, and miners.

    I WILL NOT be as extensive with my posts from here on out. You all know where I stand, I have backed up my trades with charts and reasoning why. That is good enough for me. Happy Trading everybody!

      1. palobar

        LeilaniFarms, the Gold/silver chart is one of the charts that indeed one should be paying attention to, and not the intraday charts, RSIs, stochastics, ICLs, left or right translated stuff which are water pistols with all the respect. The coin has two sides. It is just that sometimes one side may have probabilities than the other one. This is how my view differs from the others on the US Dollar. Everyone is bullish on the Euro and the large banks here in Europe are advising their clients to take longs positions. My model has captured almost every single major turning in Gold well in ADVANCE, not after the fact where every experienced trader can assume that a low or high is close either this this week, or next week, or the week after. While can know in advance, the KEY dates for a particular year, we cannot tell in advance whether all of them will actually work out or which ones will turn out to be a major swing point. One of the characteristics of a MAJOR swing high or low is that price and time may ‘lock’ perfectly givving a geometry that is related to human consciousness. Such thing took place exactly on the Dec’15, Dec.16 and especially the Jul’16 high in gold. One hour after that high I wrote to my friends who are fund managers ”..it could be it. Chances that Gold will retest the 2015 low are high”. Who know what everyone was saying here in this blog and what happened after that.

        In the case of Gold, we are NOT yet in a bull market. A bull market makes highers highs and does not break its lows even when with negative news. In this case, Gold could not even test the 2016 high although the Dollar was crashing and we had the threat of war between the US and NK. The fact that gold made higher lows on the monthly chart is possitive. At the same we have lower highs on the yearly and monthly charts. If you study carefully the bear market from 1980-1999 you will find cases where more than doubled nevertheless, it kept falling for years. The key is the Sep’16 high, if we takethat high out decisively, I doubt that Gold will look back. Until, that happens, we need to be CAUTIOUS. Go back and check the 2013, 2014, 2016 highs you will find more or less the same stories written here in this blog. I am not saying that it will happen, but what do you Gold will do if the Gold/Silver ratio breaks out of the area you have highlighted in your chart?

        In the case of the US Dollar, I agree that the bears are still in control. However, as I highlighted here in September, on the 8th of Sep, the Dollar gave the most amazing and accurate symmetry I have ever saw. So, those who think that the Dollar is dead may want to hold a smaller bag. If that hold, then, I agree that the Dollar will get into serious trouble.

        Your comments are polite, interesting and welcome but you need to control your emotions.

        Gold = The last week of December should give a nice swing point.
        Good luck.

        1. LeilaniFarms

          IF price breaks above in regards to Gold Silver Ratio then a tight stop could be place right above the 80 level, right?

          Which would be the best Risk / Reward you would have had since February 2016.

    1. faz

      I just asked my friend google about the triangle pattern, and this link in the light of your silver spot chart, makes me worry that in fact silver is actually heading down. Ouch.

      1. SLEP

        Exactly! Silver and gold are heading down, big time! Silver and gold are still in bear markets. When silver had a flash crash to $14.34, according to StockCharts, that was a warning sign that it will be revisited and even go lower, just as when silver had a flash crash to $13.91 and was revisited and went down to $13.62 in 12/2015. Therefore, silver should get down to $14 or lower, and gold should get down to $1,050 or lower. However, that won’t be the final low. Gold should get down to $1,000 or lower, and silver should get down to $10 or lower before a new bull market begins.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Difference is we have already broken out and closed ABOVE this weekly triangle and could possibly test it again, but from the top side.

      It is a much different story when you are still below. This helps to strengthen my theory as we are no longer in the 4 year descending triangle pattern.

  41. jacob2

    Farms and Young thanks for all the obviously well researched and thougt out posts. On informational overload. Can’t see the PM sector doing much till the SM, dollar and of course the ever present BTC See serous selling. Limited upside till then. Gold always a bit of the anti everything else trade. Hold a few unleveraged PM stocks and ETF’s, nothing very exciting. IT’s gonna do what it’s gonna do.

    Thanks again and good luck.

  42. Gary Post author

    Folks you need to look at the big picture more often. Gold is in a new bull market, but it’s starting slowly because stocks have transitioned into a vertical phase. Smart money is slowing taking positions in preparation for what happens when the vertical phase in stocks ends.

    I’ve covered this in detail in the weekend report. And here’s a surprise twist. The 7 year cycle in the stock market will likely revert back to a 4 year cycle.

  43. mustang sally

    Morning All: By all these posts, it is quiet obvious that we are at a major point in the market , I have been saying this for a while( as gary says), watch the markers usd 93.60 gold 1260 and dust 29.50. This next move will provide traders with the most money as it will be vertical . hgd.to has held 10 now for the past 2 days, even with gold rising, For those charters compare hgd,to with gold since september. Gold has been going up so has hgd.to. If I was bullish I would be worried about that.

    Shortin Sally

  44. mustang sally

    To make my point why would anyone be bearish (Mr. Farm) on september 17 hgd was 7 today 10.17. Gold on Sept 17 was 1180 now it is 1257. So all these bully.s please explain.


  45. Gary Post author

    This is exactly the kind of sentiment we need to see at major cycle lows. And not surprisingly the intermediate sentiment on gold has finally reached bearish extremes and the commercials have covered most of their shorts.

    The same people that are always on the wrong side of the markets at tops and at bottoms are again turning bearish right at the bottom. (It’s like a broken record, these people just never get it right).

    I’ll say it again. If you want to make long term sustainable gains in this business you have to do the opposite of what the herd does when sentiment gets extreme.

    I think gold has probably completed its ICL, but it may churn for a couple of weeks while stocks continue up to find their intermediate cycle top.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        HGD is a leveraged Gold fund with a market cap of only $21 Million…

        This is rubbish when looking to analyze Gold and/or Miners. That’s probably why Gary won’t reply because it is a silly question to begin with. It does you no good to keep analyzing that chart. It is actually laughable, sorry Shortin Sally.

        1. mustang sally

          That’s the kind on answer I suspected. can;t answer it so turn it into an insult. So you are telling me that hgd just is a random index fund which tracks nothing. Really, now answer the question why is hgd up and gold up when hgd is a bearish derivative of gold.

          Try again.


          1. Gary Post author

            Sally you can’t plot technicals off a leveraged fund. There is decay in all of these things. They move based off the underlying asset but get re balanced daily.

            You have to base your technicals off the underlying asset.

          2. Jim Dandy

            HGD is hardly leading gold or miners with a market cap of $21 million, Sally might be right for a few days as miners have ripped and we are in December so could pull back and shake a few late longs out, but it certainly isn´t bc all the smart money is in HGD, looks like no money is in HGD, Sallys favorite indicator.

  46. mustang sally

    So please explain Gary, hgd is just decaying as gold goes up. Not making sense Gary. Did you ever think that bear derivatives are going to be the next bull market. They are the ugliest charts in the world, is it not you that says you should invest in a vehicle which no one wants. dust and hgd do look very unwanted.


    1. Gary Post author

      Do you seriously not understand how these things work? If not then you have no business investing in them.

      Yes they can go down even as the underlying goes slightly up or sideways. The only time they track true is during strong trending moves in the correct direction. Anything less and they will all eventually go to 0 because of decay.

      It’s why almost all of these things have multiple reverse splits.

      1. mustang sally

        So Gary, hgd has gone up 45% and gold went from 1180 to 1257 and hgd is a gold bear derivative.

        If this is a bear product why is it up 45%, please explain why? I don’t get it.


  47. mustang sally

    So Gary, when gold goes down , does this mean that hgd a bear derivative will go down, or will it go up faster.


  48. palobar

    If you want to understand who was on the wrong side you can simply go and read the comments here when gold was making the majors highs in 2012,2013,2016. In the past 4.5 years Gold has not gone anywhere. It has been trading in a $200 range. I fully accept the basing pattern argument but there is absolutely no bull market here yet. US equities and bitcoin are in a bull market. That will come if we take out the Sep’16 high. Maybe you wanna check and remind us what Incrementum and Casey research were forecasting about Gold over the last 5 years.

    When the bull market begins I will be very excited because my largest position is in physical gold. If you look at the 2017 Gold chart, the three most important swing points were the April high, the July low and the September high. I shared these turning points well in advance here. I have studied Gold more than you can even imagine and probably I understand what the numbers mean more than any blog you have ever visited in your trading life. I am hoping for the best in Gold, but I am just laying out the possibility that may see another important low (not necessarily below the 2015 low) down the road.

    1. Gary Post author

      A bull market begins when a bear market ends. Golds bear ended in December 2015.

      What you are saying is that the bull hasn’t started to accelerate yet, which is true, but the bull started two years ago.

    1. Gary Post author

      The miners are leading the sector down into an intermediate cycle low. The same thing happens at every one of these pullbacks.

      What you need to perfect is when to start anticipating a turn. Clearly your markers are worthless for that. They only confirm a trend but that can’t predict when the trend is going to reverse.

      For that you need different tools. You need to monitor sentiment and understand cycle analysis.

  49. mustang sally

    Time will tell if the markers are a waste, these are generated around frequency and the market has been dancing around them , so not sure they are useless Gary.


  50. palobar

    In terms of price, last week’s close left Gold perfectly balanced. If we close next week above $1283, then most likely last week we saw an important low. If however, we start trading below the $1238 level, the whole picture could change significantly.

      1. Gary Post author

        I would say it’s already surprised most. Last year everyone was convinced it was going to 120. Instead it went to 91.

    1. Gary Post author

      I wouldn’t say last weeks low is sacrosanct just yet. Gold hasn’t broken the downtrend line or turned the 10 DMA back up yet. So we don’t have confirmation that the cycle has bottomed. It’s entirely possible for gold to undercut last weeks low and stretch the daily cycle just a little bit more before bottoming. That’s not really my primary expectation but I’ve seen it happen enough times to know not to write it off.

      1. palobar

        I had 15-16 December as a strong date. Gold made a short-term high on the 15th. The 16th was on Saturday so I need to see what Monday will bring. These cycles defined according to my work most of the major swings in Gold over the past years, hence I consider this time window important.1238 is a very important number unique to Gold according to work. If we close below despite the above time window, then we could see a sharp decline. If that would happen, then I would pay attention to the 26-27 December.

  51. mustang sally

    Just to let you know we can do other stocks, so we generated a chart of abx. A high frequency marker was around at 10.27. What I would assume is it will become resistance in the near future.


    1. Jim Dandy

      She makes them easy to spot by signing all her posts twice, both before and after all the important things she has to say!

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