307 thoughts on “BULL & BEAR MARKETS

  1. tallboy

    Gary, I have been bearish on our economic conditions for awhile now, one reason I own metals. But in shopping this past week retail stores are booming with customers!!! At least hear in St Pete Florida. Fabulous chart analysis as usual.

      1. Anthonyo

        vin,

        The Globalists are coddling , aiding and abetting the Islamists.
        Same people who own the mainstream media.
        Only the new breed of Nationalists in Europe and US are fighting these evil forces.

        1. Steffmeister

          Correct, the Globalists are aslo behind the mass immigration to Europe. Sweden got a boatload of these morons ruining the country …

          I am waiting for Sweden to wake the F up, but we’ve been brainwashed for decades with globalist propaganda.

  2. Lenapowich

    Where have all the quality posters gone? Christian, JJ, Don, dboz, have been replaced Gary back slappers that we have never seen before. Even Pedestrian (aka Zkotpen) doesn’t sound like the old guy we learned to love. I used to look forward to reading this blog every morning, now it’s just blah…

        1. Nada

          That’s one of your conditions Sally, your memory is not what it use to be;

          Nada
          December 8, 2017 at 7:09 am
          I don’t provide investment advice. I post what I see on the charts. Obviously, I am suggesting that this looks like a good spot for a bounce. How big of a bounce and will it hold? Only the gold gods know Sally.

      1. Pedestrian

        Lena must be forgetting how she stirred up the pot with nasty little comments each day and people quit posting as a result while others ended up squabbling so much Gary started blocking them. And now she ignorantly wonders where they all went. We really need to get back to judging people by how they behave and not by how they try to portray themselves. Stupid is as stupid does.

      1. Pedestrian

        Come on Gary. You were totally wrong on Bitcoin. It’s tripled since you called it out as a losing trade. You seem to be losing your memory about what you got right and wrong.

        1. Gary Post author

          Yes I was too early on the top in bitcoin but I’m correct on the general principle. It is a bubble. One of the biggest in human history, and those that fail to control greed (usually about 90-95%) will end up losing everything when the bubble pops.

          1. Pedestrian

            Sure looks like a bubble. Classic shape. But what if its not a bubble at all and instead this is just the price discovery mechanism of the market trying to find the true worth of a new asset class? Is anything impossible anymore? What if the stock market collapses and Bitcoin soars to million a coin instead of crashing as everyone expects?

            I am only saying this because EVERYONE thinks bitcoin is in a bubble and usually when the market loads opinion on one side of the boat that means everyone will be wrong.

          2. Gary Post author

            Sentiment is at 97% bulls in bitcoin.

            This is not a market where everyone thinks it’s a bubble.

            Basically there are only a very few people that have any shred of common sense left. I’m one of them.

            The signs are obvious. When price starts to jump in bigger and bigger percentage moves that’s not price discovery. That’s a whole lot of unsophisticated investors panicking into what they believe is a sure thing.

            Even if bitcoin is destined to be a viable technology it’s still going to have to crash from the bubble and then produce a more sustainable bull trajectory.

    1. lobster

      Hey Ras, you offer many interesting market and stock observations along the way but you rarely if ever talk about actions you are taking. Just curious, do you trade?

      lobster

      1. ras

        Trading is very personal. No comment beyond that. Yeah, dis does look interesting. Not investment advice. Everyone needs to do his/her own due diligence.
        My primary interest in this site is Gary’s take on sentiment and cycles. When it chimes in with my own methodology it can be a plus.

  3. Goild

    We have the same scenario as last year.
    Last year GOLD felt after the FED announced the hike.
    The sentiment for gold right now is not pleasant.
    The manipulators need to do an undercut.
    There is no sunshine to warm GOLD right now.

    1. roadrunner

      that is one way to look at last year. my take is Gold started falling right after the election and BOTTOMED on or within 5 /6 trading days of FED rate hike. i think GDX also bottomed same time. i think you will find the same thing happened the first time the FED raised rates. I expect, as i know Gary does as well, that Gold?Miners will bottom this week. Gold has been falling for 2+ months. Too many people use the one time events of the 1980 increases in rates as proof that Gold gets crushed when rates rise. history shows otherwise.

      1. Pedestrian

        Well its the real versus nominal rates you refer too. We are living in pretty weird times though so gold may not be too responsive just yet. If the next Fed chair does not signal a continuation of the Fed Funds rate increasing then gold might start getting a little more glow. If rates started dropping for example even as inflation crept higher and the real rate gap widens.

    2. Pedestrian

      Yes gold fell because it correlates to treasury note prices and when the Fed bumped its rate, bond futures dropped so gold went down. Its what I expect this time around as well once the daily news spike is out of the way. And that is bad news for gold as it is literally sitting right on top of critical support as I write this post. A break below support for gold will set off quite a bit of added automated selling. There is however another good support line just above 1200 dollars though. We should see that touched by year end.

      2013, 2014 and 2016 all closed the year very close to the 1200 dollar mark and 2017 will likely oblige by doing exactly the same thing again. Gold bugs should be used to this by now. Buying loads of extra time on your contracts was a worthless bet five years running.

      Summer of 2018 should finally see some relief arrive for what remain of the long suffering bugs.

  4. 1970confused

    Gold can not stay overbought for a week before losers on this board want to shoot it dead but the Dow and the Sp500 OVERBOUGHT FOR 2 YEARS ON THE WEEKLY and I have to beleive this is the time to get in or stay in the market. I’ll wait for a real correction…..if the manipulators will allow it!!!!!
    Gary, you say that currencies are the most maipulated of markets so why even bother talking about them. They will do whatever makes sense at the time and well GOLD is always sold off

  5. 1970confused

    Oh ya, then we are supposed to use the COT Report to help us figure out what the big boys are doing but by the time we get the info, its 10 days old hahahaha….isn’t that the biggest joke of all. Since when is this allowed in a market we all know that when you trade you need second by second info what the hell is the SEC doing, bunch of crooks

  6. bluelagoon

    Interesting video Gary – thanks for sharing. When you do the same exercise with Bitcoin – what do you get? Don’t the lines look like the S&P where it’s got room to run?

  7. tallboy

    For a nothing market comment earlier the QQQ still gained about a 1/2%, not bad. Just look at that chart and tell me why you are not 99% in the stock market. I am a Gold bug to for the record.

  8. Lenapowich

    Nada, my dear, you mis-understand me. I don’t pretend to know anything about where gold is going but that doesn’t mean I don’t enjoy reading the comments of those who seem to have a clue and they all seem to have disappeared. I mean, you can only read so many comments from new comers about how great Gary is before that theme gets old (and useless) in a big hurry.
    BTW, I recall that you were predicting (seems like it was about 100 times) that gold was going up and you were dead wrong. Maybe you were hoping no one would notice. Hopefully you didn’t go all trusting your broken crystal ball.
    I guess your “contributions” are about as valuable to others as mine would be. Actually, your contributions are generally only of the variety of being very critical of others . What’s that all about?
    Have a nice day Nada.

    1. vin

      Nada has been quite good. Unlike many she provides some very good information. In general her posts are interesting. Has he/she been always been right? NO ONE can predict the market correctly always. When he/she disappeared for a while the board certainly become less interesting. Furthermore some of her comments are quite humorous, and some quite thought provoking.

    2. Nada

      I have no doubts that I was wrong and guess what, it was not the first or last. That markets are not predictable to an absolute. The difference about my calls? I own them. I was the first to admit when I was wrong and was the very first poster when the cycle failed. So check your facts Lena, when you say I hoped no one woukd notice.

      I don’t run away and hide when I make a wrong call (insert mustang Sally as an example).

      1. Gary Post author

        I also don’t get to run away and hide when I make an errant call. The trolls will focus on it for years. And it doesn’t matter how many excellent calls I’ve made before or since.

        The Challenge however will expose them for what they are.

  9. Lenapowich

    MS: I don’t ignore Nada because he does watch things pretty close and makes informative comments. I just don’t have the time to watch the markets all day whereas he obviously does. Sometimes he is a bit mouthy towards others and needs reminding that he is far from perfect with his forecasts, just like everyone else.

    1. Pedestrian

      Like the damn fools who invested in integrated circuits in and 1960’s only to see Moore’s Law of almost unlimited exponential growth in IC memory come true? Like those guys Gary?

      1. Gary Post author

        You’re not listening.

        Price is in a very mature bubble. That has nothing to do with the sustainability of the technology. It’s saying we’ve gone up far enough and long enough that the ignorant masses are now piling into the market because they believe they’ve found a money tree.

        This kind of price behavior has never been sustainable, I don’t care what the fundamentals are. The entire tech sector crashed after 2000. It didn’t mean the technology was flawed. It just meant that price got way way too far ahead of reality. The crash cleansed the market and a new more sustainable trend began.

        1. Pedestrian

          No I hear you Gary. I am just pointing out that when a new technology is introduced the unexpected can happen. Integrated circuit memory was one of those times and the density has been doubling every 24 months since the 1960’s even though almost nobody would have believed that could be possible 50 years ago. I mean seriously, Moores Law itself was preposterous sounding on its face and yet here we are decades later and the exponential growth continues although at a slightly slower rate of pace. So I am not saying its different this time where parabolic patterns are concerned but I am also not so sure Bitcoin will crash and burn like the South Seas Bubble chart just before the company went extinct. Since Bits are money and becoming more widely accepted along with the blockchain technology then odds are better it eventually finds its median price once the fireworks are over. We just don’t know what the final price level that will be at but we can be sure it won’t be zero. Could be 10,000 or it could be 50,000 dollars. Hell, if some peoples dollar collapse idea comes true it could be a million in the end even if it only buys a cup of coffee at Subway!

          1. Gary Post author

            Personally I think once the crash comes and everyone starts screaming for a bail out the government will step in and stop this nonsense.

            Seriously, we aren’t going to have a world where every Tom Dick and Harry can create their own money out of thin air.

            Maybe the technology has a use, but it’s not going to be so the general masses can get into the counterfeiting business.

          2. Pedestrian

            Whoaaa there buddy. Now you are on another subject altogether. If I was living on a farm growing my own chickens and wanted to trade with a neighbor for a few pounds of butter from his cow then is that counterfeiting? We have just used real money to make a legitimate market trade and nobody got taxed in the process using an ancient currency that nobody has a claim on nor is its price dictated by any authority. There is the free market for you.

          3. Gary Post author

            How many chickens are worth $19,000?

            For that matter how many people raise chickens?

            How about cows?

            Or make their own butter?

            Our modern society has progressed beyond the barter system. One can’t store chickens in the bank until you need them. One also can’t print a chicken out of thin air. It takes time effort and money to raise animals.

            I’m talking about a Ponzi scheme where anyone can create their own currency out of thin air. No need to raise a chicken or a cow. And then they try to convince people to buy their currency for higher and higher prices. A get rich quick scheme. In the end it’s just make believe money, no different than monopoly money. It’s not backed by anything other than the next fools willingness to give you more dollars for it than you bought it for. When the supply of idiots runs out what do you have? Absolutely nothing.

            At least real currencies are backed by the GDP of the country issuing them and the countries ability to tax it’s citizens.

          4. jake

            Start the dialectic. Problem, reaction, solution. Thesis, antithesis, synthesis. What happened to the State banks issuing bank notes?

          5. RTTPD

            Gary —–

            Once the Bitcoin junkies watch their dreams unfold into epic nightmares and they start screaming……and the crooked establishment comes in with the crooked FBI, and says the Russian hackers stole all their cryptos — what do suppose the chances are they get a bailout?

  10. ras

    Next stop for $gold around 1220, couple of days sideways and then a swoosh down to 1200 plus/minus 10? Possible + divergence set up could manifest during this process?

    1. Pedestrian

      Sounds about right to me Ras. I will be buying the eventual bounce in any case although not too sure yet how high it might go. Really depends on how deep it falls before the next move. Middle January seem about right to you or is that too early for a dead cat bounce?

    1. vin

      Yes. But, only the first batch.

      If I get the opportunity I will get 2 more batches of the same dollar value (not number of units). I still feel that it will go below 10 (probably close to 8) but then I lost patience specially when I saw a pro-gold person like yourself throw in the towel even temporarily.

      12.85 did not look that bad. We will see.

      And, good luck to you.

    1. Robert

      Not much of a bloodbath. As i said i think the max we will see is 1220 gold. It will prbly bottom any day now. I doubt Gary will be right on triangle trendline touch

      1. Anthonyo

        Robert,
        If it has broken down below 1260, most likely it has more downside to go to at least 1200 technically.

        Now, “IF” the fed pulls a hawkish surprise and hikes Half a percent, all bets are off…1180, 1175, 1155, 1143, 1120 await.

        If only Quarter of a percent hike, gold may stay and languish for a while and make a bottom at or above 1200.

        1. Gary Post author

          The Fed is going to hike 1/4%.

          The market has known this for months. The only thing that might change is if they indicate in the statement that they are going to speed up the rate of hikes.

          I seriously doubt that is going to happen though. They’ve been treating the markets with kid gloves for 8 years. I don’t see why they would change now.

          1. Gary Post author

            Well maybe, and maybe not. I don’t think it’s finished yet. Anything can happen during the final days of a bloodbath phase. That’s why I call it a bloodbath phase.

            I wouldn’t assume at this time that this is going to remain mild. Remember how so many assumed that we wouldn’t get the second leg down this time because gold went sideways for so long lulling everyone into thinking this time was different?

            Turns out this time wasn’t different. That has cost holders of GDX 7% and NUGT 21% if they were banking on this time being different.

          2. Nada

            I dunno, I think the drop into this ICL has done much more damage than previous ICLs. The ICL last July was very mild and why we had a lot guessing if the ICL had occurred or if it was still ahead.

  11. Goild

    Good day,

    The bond market knows a lot. Looking at the $UST2Y chart for the December hike on 2015, 2016, and now 2017 we can see that the yield already had accounted for the rate hike and the situation, the advancing of the yield, now is similar as for 2015 and 2016. Thus there will likely be no surprises: 1/4 or 3/8 of a point for tomorrow.

  12. allthatglitters

    Sold all of my JDST (purchased at $63 and change) at $75 today. Gary e-mailed. I thought I’d turn right around and buy JNUG, but gonna wait on that. You never know how Fed statement will be reacted to. I would guess a relief rally in JNUG, but who knows, logic does not always work.

        1. Gary Post author

          I have a high school buddy that just texted me from Missouri and told me he heard two old ladies discussing Bitcoin in the grocery store.

          Absolutely classic greater fool, unsophisticated investors that enter the market at the very top.

          1. LeilaniFarms

            Yes, I completely agree.

            Red Flags: I see it all over Facebook & social media. It is in almost every major financial news headline on a daily basis. People are starting to sell their houses in order to buy BitCoin.

            This won’t end well…

  13. isavage

    Gary – You could well be right. in the meantime my Crypro stocks now 15 of them are massively up & up even more – actually being to scare the hell out of me between hold for dear life or sell sell sell & bag the cash ! !

  14. allthatglitters

    I’m gonna predict a mild relief rally in gold tomorrow followed by another tank in the weeks ahead. Who knows. This announcement has me feeling like a deer in the headlights for some reason. They’re clearly going to hike a quarter point only, but not sure how the market will react. Should be a relief rally since quarter hike is way more than price in at this point, but banksters could also use it as excuse for another crush down.

  15. isavage

    Gary are you a believer that higher interest rates can actually take the price of gold up as it has in the past? The idea being that it is indicative of inflation creeping back in to the system, with gold moving in anticipation ?

    Of course the established current idea is that of course higher rates is bad due to higher yields, and this would mean less demand for safe havens..etc

    if so & the FED “surprises” with a 0.5 move PM’s could sell off only to move sharply higher

    What do you think 😉

    1. Gary Post author

      I don’t know why anyone thinks the FED is going to raise a half percent. The FED doesn’t lead the market, they follow the market. The market has been pricing in a quarter point hike for months now. Which means we’re going to get a quarter point hike tomorrow.

  16. LeilaniFarms

    As mentioned in my first post I’m looking to load up on JNUG before end of day as a mid to long-term position. However, not ready yet. Looks like Gold is ready to fall out from underneath itself here real soon.

    Gold down yesterday and today but miners are holding quite strong, well, GDXJ is anyways.

  17. Jim Dandy

    The metals and miners look like will be under pressure into January. I would like to do some buying but they are not done yet on the downside as they keep breaking slightly lower, both metals and miners, plus too many people are focused on the FOMC as the catalyst even though it´s been baked in the cake for weeks at least. So we will get some fireworks tomorrow but maybe just a fakeout rally like last June in miners before they took their final, steep drop which was the one to buy.

  18. LeilaniFarms

    Looking at recent Sentiment and COT data I personally think the bottom is closer than most realize. Commercials reduced Short Positions in Silver by 27,000 contracts last week. This is the largest one-week decline in COMEX history. On top of that, this COT data was released BEFORE the major breakdown in Gold on Dec. 7th. Can’t wait to see this week’s COT data.

      1. Gary Post author

        Very possible.

        I’m not ready to try to call a bottom just yet. Definitely not in the middle of the day. Have you people learned nothing about the metals?

        1. LeilaniFarms

          From a big picture perspective if I am early by a few days or even a few weeks it is OK. I’m willing to let GDXJ fall to its December 2016 lows of about 27 which would be a 30% loss with JNUG.

          However, I would rather get in now before what I believe to be a spectacular bull run and do not want to miss out on the next leg up. It will be very powerful and will catch most by surprise. Willing to take my chances at this point in time considering I’ve been patient for about 9 months now before re-entering the precious metals market.

          For full disclosure I opened up 315 long positions of JNUG @ 12.67 as my plan was to position myself BEFORE the FOMC meeting.

          1. Gary Post author

            I’m going to partially disagree with you. Gold is not like the stock market. It almost never explodes out of ICL’s. often it can take 2 or 3 weeks before really putting any distance away from the bottom. So catching the exact bottom isn’t really critical. One usually gets multiple chances to enter pretty close to the bottom even several weeks later.

            Also we aren’t in the baby bull phase anymore. There won’t be anymore explosive moves until we recover 1900. That’s going to take a while. It’s going to be a long grueling grind back up and we need to finish this basing phase first.

          2. Nada

            @Gary

            “Gold is not like the stock market. It almost never explodes out of ICL’s. often it can take 2 or 3 weeks before really putting any distance away from the bottom. So catching the exact bottom isn’t really critical. One usually gets multiple chances to enter pretty close to the bottom even several weeks later.”

            This is great example of Gary’s excellent trading advice. You even managed to say it without a hint of egotism. I like 🙂

  19. Jim Dandy

    The bitcoin mania is fun to observe, do people not realize that one bitcoin is the same item, whether they paid .05 for it a few years ago or $18,000 today? When it goes back down, it will still be a Bitcoin, only their money will be gone. I will admit these things can go on longer than one would think, but if you want to get paid and realize the riches, you have to sell at some point.

  20. Nada

    Is gold trying to bottom before FOMC? I bought Feb 16th 124 calls. Lots of leverage here and they are “lotto calls”. I will not add to these, these are all or nothing. 1k investment. Cheers.

  21. LeilaniFarms

    Mustang Sally, lots of talk? I posted my chart of my Technical Analysis when I introduced myself here. Look at the last post of Gary’s “Gold Failed-Cycle” thread. I also mentioned that I am a Swing / Position trader so people know that my trades are based off of longer time frames.

    Anyways, I’ve shown my chart, disclosed my trade style as well as current open positions. What about you? Anything to back up your trades or are you just going to say “Gold below 1200”?

    1. Nada

      Pay no attention to Shortin Sally. She is full of bitterness. Back in July, she was shooting off her mouth, much like she is today. Her mabel market predictions failed and instead of admitting she made a bad call, she crawled back under her retirement bridge. My bet is she will run away soon as gold pounds out its ICL.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        Yea I started reading this site again maybe a week ago or so and noticed a few of her posts.

        One thing that irritates me with other traders iis when they post trade calls without ANYTHING to back it up. Always support your trade with charts otherwise I don’t pay much attention. Most retail traders are always on the wrong side of the trade anyways.

        Mustang Sally, before you can say Gold Below 1200 it needs to hit some other areas of support around 1220 to 1205. And when you consider how far we are getting away from even the 20 EMA on the D1 chart for Spot Gold it is unrealistic to start making such calls so far off from where price is currently sitting. Bulls make money, bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered. I hope you are not a pig MS…

      2. mustang sally

        Nada, I will go on my online bingo results , as Gary said that;s what matters.
        My bet is she will run away soon as gold pounds out its ICL, so if it does not what are you going to do

        MS

  22. LeilaniFarms

    Gary, one thing I have been intrigued about you and your style is due to the fact that you use “Cycles”

    From everything I’ve learned in regards to Technical analysis I’ve never really understood or considered cycles to be honest. However, they are a nice fit to my own personal trading style so I want to say Thank you for sharing.

    1. Gary Post author

      Remember in the first half of 2016 when everyone was looking for a big drop in gold based on the massive commercial short position?

      Did gold turn back down or just keep going up?

      Sometimes the commercials are just flat out wrong … the same as the rest of us.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      What is “at the drop of a hat”. I have been patiently sitting on the sidelines almost the entire year waiting for a good entry point into precious metals.

      Also, it doesn’t need to “go to the moon” as you put it. Gold and silver are volatile, miners add leverage to that volatility. Playing with the Juniors add to this volatility as well. Last but not least, JNUG is a 3x Leveraged fund in a highly volatile sector.

      Gold doesn’t even need to get close to making new highs before JNUG is a 10 bagger. Timing is everything though.

  23. Jim Dandy

    This sure feels a lot like Nov-Dec 2015, totally apathy and disinterest in miners. We didn´t get a real sharp drop back then, just barely poked to new lows then it was off to the races, but I won´t forget how the sector was left for dead before buying came in.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Right on, thanks for sharing. Quite often I forget to pull up the Fib for potential Swing highs/lows. Looks good.

      Although, I was really hoping Gold would have made one more push lower down to the 1207 (Weekly trendline as well as support) before tomorrow’s FOMC.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      The Blockchain Technology is revolutionary, NOT BitCoin.

      BitCoin Market Cap: Maybe $300 Billion or so
      Gold Market Cap: Around $8.3 Trillion

      I’m kicking myself in the ass everyday for not buying back in December of last year but I could never buy at these levels. No way.

      Even if BitCoin went to $150,000 from here that is a 10 to 1 return at current levels. I feel WAY more confident in picking up JNUG at these levels all things considered.

      I would NEVER compare BitCoin to Gold. They are 2 completely different beasts!

    1. LeilaniFarms

      PrimeTime, no offense. But it sounds like you have been burned over and over again during the Bear market and maybe even during 2017 as prices consolidated?

      Keep in mind folks, on the weekly charts for Silver, Gold, GDX, GDXJ, XAU: They all have one important thing in common. They have all set higher highs and higher lows in 2016 confirming a break of the multi-year bear market.

      Now, in 2017, Gold will more than likely be printing higher lows as well. Actually, Gary mentioned this in the video at the top of this thread.

      Higher Highs & Higher Lows being printed on the larger timeframes (Monthly & Weekly) are extremely important and can’t be denied.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      True, I personally don’t feel like the Bloodbath stage has been bloody enough. haha

      I’m probably a little early but am psychologically and financially prepared to hold onto another final push lower if that’s what the market does.

      1. primetime

        I have been scorched, b/c I am old Turkey, and have a very long investing window. I will just wait and see what happens. Either way, life is good. Human nature does provide me with frustration at times, and I have seen this rodeo many times.

        1. LeilaniFarms

          Understood. It does get frustrating especially when you are on the wrong side of a trade. High leverage doesn’t help either. Been there many times before so I feel the pain.

          You mentioned that you have a long-term view on investing which means you want to first take a look at the BIG picture which would be the Monthly time frame and ask yourself “what is the overall trend?”

          Well, after looking at XAU/USD on the Monthly chart it is clear that even the 2011-2015 bear market was actually just a correction / retracement. Here have a look: https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjE5MDQwN182ODAzMDA4

          Next, drop down to your Weekly Charts and you will see the following: https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjE5MDQxN182ODAzMDMw

          Monthly and Weekly charts say we are in a Bull market. Now its up to you to find your entry point. 🙂

  24. ras

    Seesaw between nugt/dust pair continues. The former is struggling to decline while the latter is struggling to rise. Blood bath or whimper? Only the market knows.

  25. Gary Post author

    I’m not seeing the kind of heavy volume yet in any of the triple leveraged funds that would indicate a longer term bottom.

    The metals probably aren’t finished with the ICL just yet.

    1. Jim Dandy

      I agree we probably aren´t done just yet on the downside, but looking back at late 2015, JNUG didn´t have any remarkable volume, just before the big 2016 run.

  26. Spanglish Inquisition

    What’s up Gary. I just rode JDST the last two months on this one. I’m looking to reverse at the end of this bloodbath phase. I’m planning to put on a NUGT strike 40 call for June, if we can get a capitulation this week down to 1220. What are your thoughts on this type of option play?

    1. Gary Post author

      Never buy options on a leveraged ETF. It’s a suckers bet. The extra volatility is already priced into the option, plus the spreads and liquidity are horrendous (next to impossible to get into and out of positions especially in a declining market).

      You will do just as well if not better buying options on GDX where the spreads are small and the liquidity is great (easy to get in and out of positions).

  27. allthatglitters

    The more I think about it the more I think tomorrow the banksters will allow a brief pop up in the metals in reaction to the “only” quarter hike vs. the 50 cent fairy tale. Then a crush down. Whether the crush down is hours or days later I don’t know.

  28. Cybo33

    Gary you have been great answering my questions. Let me be more specific with you about one.

    I have a QQQ December 29 call 57 strike price cost is underwater at $1,11.

    What do you think I should do ? Running out of time.

    Thanks
    Cybo

    1. Gary Post author

      I almost never buy out of the money calls and I always buy enough time to weather an ICL if need be.

      You shouldn’t be any closer than April and May would be better.

  29. primetime

    My wife just informed me my youngest son, 13 yoa just came home from school and said we must invest in bitcoin. You know about it mom, have you heard about it? We can be millionaires just like this 17 year old kid on youtube who lives in Vegas. He told her you can’t lose if you get out on top.

    I am mortgaging the house tonight and going ALL IN.

    1. Spanglish Inquisition

      give the kid some money and let him play. Best way to learn. Especially to learn how to lose big.

      (Make him mow the yard for the money of course)

    1. Gary Post author

      Maybe a pullback into a more recognizable HCL, but unlikely an IC top. Sentiment isn’t excessively bullish enough yet.

      I don’t expect a final IC top until early January, and probably 25,400-25,600 on the Dow.

  30. palobar

    It is always useful to look at the big picture. I definitely agree with Gary on the US equity markets. I have a different view on the US Dollar and Gold. On the Dollar, the vast majority of analysts and reports are arguing that the Euro will strengthen (ie the Dollar will go down). Youtube is full of videos on the collapse of the US Dollar. I explained in early September why I believe that the Dollar made a major low and could be preparing for a big move. We still need a bit more time here to see which scenario will play out. On Gold, however, the picture is more clear in my view. The evidence is mounting that Gold is not yet in a bull market.

    I have a very strong time window for Gold and the EUR/USD on the 15-16 December. The last time such a window coincided with a FED meeting was in mid-March 2015 where the Dollar peaked and begun a multi-month sideways movement.

  31. Goild

    Look at the daily GOLD candles.
    Do they look like bullish? NO
    Do they look like growing up green? NO
    Do they look like in a falling pattern? YES
    Did GOLD fall before under similar conditions? YES
    Do the manipulators have done an undercut yet? NO
    Is there room for GOLD to fall more? YES
    There you go!

  32. Goild

    Look at the weekly GOLD candles.
    Look at the monthly GOLD candles.
    Look at the volume. It has not peaked; it has not bottomed.
    Fasten your seat belts, the roller coaster is going downhill.

  33. Steffmeister

    It looks like BitCoin is a Russian/Asian ponzi scheme. Nadir Energy&Mining is a major owner of bitcoin inc.
    Maybe they need some extra money to finance the silky road?

    The product being pumped by the RT moron Max Kaiser.

    Just saying …

  34. Steffmeister

    From a clever dude on the internet:

    We are not about to learn who “Satoshi Nakamoto” actually is or was. There have been plenty of other parties with greater power looking into that matter and they either didn’t solve the problem of if they did they are not telling what they know.

    But it’s not actually required to know everything. The motivations are usually discernable vis the subsequent facts and the Qui Bono principle. I will extrapolate outwards from and interpolate to fill the gaps between the scant facts available to me.

    So who promoted the brand name of Bitcoin, so it would not fade away into obscurity? Looking back and allowing for the more significant data to be unrevealed in a search, I look for innocuous data which can provide me with circumstantial evidence, and that circumstantial evidence may be tested against later occurring events to raise or reduce it’s accuracy rating, while always allowing for some doubt to remain.

    The first records I find are geek forum related, and early discussion papers as in by Nick Szabo, one of various candidates for Nakamoto, whose blog is here: https://unenumerated.blogspot.ie/2017/

    Dominic Frisby thought it was Szabo and said so in an RT Keiser Report, while acknowledging that he had no proof around 2014-2014. You will note that Max Keiser who had a good eye for enthusiastically selling a silver bullish story to retail by web media, returned to the Bitcoin story later.

    The earliest discussions wander into technical forum discussion about how it works, and early product placement into the hands of techies and tech writers. Wired, for example, wrote about it. This is product placement and product development in my eyes. Then it should have organically risen or faded according to some average profile of new products. At a certain stage discussion began to come out of Stanford, and soon after the Economist ran a piece.

    That is enough for me to form my first working hypothesis.

    The first corporation I find was : https://bitcoincapitalcorp.com/ which is substantially owned by Nadir Energy & Mining Corp. No information from that direction yet, possibly never will be.

    As for regulation, the loose regulatory leash with which BTC has been indulged can be contrasted with eg Silk Road site. This says, just like non regulation of strange gold trading characteristics that higher powers are involved on that side of the trade.

    Basically the thing that stares back when one looks at BTC is the lack of volume. Things that go up on low volume are usually bought by novice investors, and after they buy the asset off the insiders the trend reverses. You never know, this time could be different. But I’d never risk my money on anything for which I can not make an estimate of the risk.

  35. Jim Dandy

    Where were the vehement defenders of Bitcoin when it was 6 cents a coin? Nonexistent, same exact item it was a few years ago, but now they all have rabid arguments why it´s going higher from $18000 per coin. Typical bubble behavior, and not one of them has a plan of when to sell. They all know and assume they will cash out rich, but nobody I have seen among these very, very late buyers has a SPECIFIC plan to sell. They can´t have a concrete plan to sell, because they have talked themselves into the position too strongly, and it would be too painful to let go of the Bitcoin!

    Like I said before, their Bitcoin will still be a Bitcoin no matter what price it trades at, $50K or 50 cents, so they don´t have to pay attention to price, as they obviously haven´t yet.

    1. Nada

      Flat day on FOMC Goild? I would imagine with a hike, we should anything but a flat day. Gold has been waiting on some type of catalyst since the last fire and furry tweet. Today, we have arrived.

    1. Gary Post author

      It amazes me that after all the bubbles we’ve gone through in the last 18 years that many people still can’t recognize one.

      Human nature never changes. I guess that’s why we keep repeating the mistakes of the past.

      I just wish they would come out with options on bitcoin. It’s going to be the short of the century but one can only play it with options. It’s too dangerous to short outright.

      1. Nada

        Our “young” hipster millennial Ted, loves to pop up and tell us how gold has no value – on a site known for PM trading. I think its best to ignore the trolls and my bet is.. Ted owns absolutely zero bitcoin and likes to make everyone “think” he is riding the bitcoin train. As soon as our friend Ted does buy bitcoin, that will be the top and the bubble will pop.

          1. ted

            I still technically own BTC by owning GBTC. But it’s not directly correlated. I sold my BTC at 9,000 to buy DASH at $400. Dash is now $850+.

        1. ted

          You’re right I don’t own BTC directly. I did at one point, but I converted them to DASH (another crypto that I believe will outperform BTC).

          I do own some GBTC shares also.

          1. Jim Dandy

            So because Bitcoin went Tulipmania, you think DASH will too, even as cryptos compete for investment dollars? You buying DASH, along with all the other people on the internet now recommending IOTA, LTE, and 1300 other new coins are proof we are in a bubble and that Bitcoin price has come too far, too fast. Why not just buy Bitcoin, why look for another crypto, if Bitcoin is only going straight to $500,000?

          2. Jim Dandy

            But I give you credit for admitting you don´t own any Bitcoin. I guess the next question, only if you feel like answering, would be when did you make the switch?

        2. RTTPD

          “Our “young” hipster millennial Ted, loves to pop up and tell us how gold has no value – on a site known for PM trading. I think its best to ignore the trolls and my bet is.. Ted owns absolutely zero bitcoin and likes to make everyone “think” he is riding the bitcoin train. As soon as our friend Ted does buy bitcoin, that will be the top and the bubble will pop.”

          I’m guessing the Dear leader Kim will eventually steal all his cryptos and all the millennials will be screaming for renumeration/bailout.

          https://www.youtube.com/embed/hLpE1Pa8vvI?autoplay=1&autohide=1&showinfo=0&iv_load_policy=3&rel=0

          http://www.newsweek.com/north-korea-hack-kim-jong-un-stealing-bitcoins-fund-nuclear-missile-arsenal-745506

    1. jskauai

      Leilani, Maybe the grass is greener down under there? Gary do you think the bloodbath start after 2pm today? I was looking forward to reduced prices on some bullion coins I have been eyeing. We are getting a rally in the miners Are we in the head fake phase this morning?

        1. jskauai

          Hows’it Leilani, I can barely keep up mowing my grass especially when I am getting 115 inches of rain every year! Maybe Santa will bring me some balloon tires for my mower…So I say ” let the bloodbath begin” as I want some shiny new coins for Christmas…Aloha Nui Loa.

  36. JJHarmen

    So far, it’s an everything is up day. The world can’t get enough of America. Even the bond market is celebrating higher rates with yields falling. How the hell does that make sense?

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Lots of foreign flight capital out there that has been making its way into our stock markets this past year and will continue to do so for the simple fact that we have the deepest, most liquid markets in the world and although the USA has its own set of problems, we are still the reserve / safe haven currency (USD) of the world.

      There are lots and lots of wealthy individuals all over Europe & Asia who are parking their money over here in the US and for good reasons!

    1. Gary Post author

      We are close. Maybe we got the bottom yesterday, or maybe we have a couple more days to go. But I think by the end of the week or beginning of next week we’ll have our ICL.

        1. Nada

          There was around +170 million BOW on GDX yesterday.. Before FOMC? I wonder if the pop up and dump before decision. We have seen this type of activity over and over. Oh well, we wait for 2pm.

    1. Nada

      The rate decision has been known by kindergarteners across the world for months. I doubt the dot plots contain anything shocking, but will wait have to wait for the presser for that information. I don’t care for rallies before the decision as that makes one believe they will pop and drop – or maybe thats what they want the shorts to believe? muhahha

  37. allthatglitters

    Glad I sold the JDST yesterday, yowza.

    Glad to be on the sidelines though even though I’ve obviously missed out on gains if I had bought JNUG right away. It’s almost pure gambling to bet before the Fed statement how the market will react. If I was into that I’d just go to Vegas and bet on black or red on the roulette wheel.

    I’m eager to jump on the JNUG train, but gonna wait for the dust to settle. If I miss out on some early gains so be it.

    1. Troy

      Added my first JNUG position this morning in a long time.
      We are so close to a DCL and ICL that even if the miners sell-off after the FOMC, I will be adding more. I did want it for $10 but maybe Mr. Market won’t oblige.

    1. jskauai

      Oh yes, FOMC day is always a fun day when watching gold and silver and miners. It appears we are witnessing the early birds buying the dip in the miners not wanting to miss the train…bloodbath be damned!

  38. Nada

    I keep hearing comments about this ICL being “mild”. Not sure why. The sideways action in gold during the decline phase of the intermediate cycle was brutal and chewed up bears and bulls. The ICL in July in comparison, was a walk in the park.

    1. Gary Post author

      This has been anything but mild in the miners.

      I would have liked to see sentiment get a little bit more extreme but as of yesterday it was getting close.

      1. jskauai

        ***CORRECTION***
        I believe Janet will be “Yellen” this in her post Fed meeting…
        “Fee-fi-fo-fum,
        I smell the blood of a PM bug,
        Be he alive, or be he dead
        I’ll grind his bones to make my bread”

    1. Troy

      I’ve got orders in for 11.75 and 10.75 to add to my initial buy at 12.90 this morning. Yes, stranger things in the metals have happened and will happen again!

      She may get to 14 before the Fed even speaks.

  39. isavage

    Still long short JNUG/JDST holding strong to my JDST need 79.50 B/even after holding iit long time and looking for the FED to surprise with guidance. That would give a PM’s sell the news event followed by the bottom in the coming days as inflation expectations get repriced.

    or maybe the 78% Fib was the bottom yesterday for gold ?? we will see.

    Good luck all

  40. LeilaniFarms

    FOMC will be the deterMINING factor but IF the move continues higher I see 1264 for Gold and Silver could possible get back up to 16.30.

    Obviously if it goes the other way then Silver looks like it could fall off of a cliff! Yesterday’s Doji on the Silver Daily chart right at strong support looks promising especially after the downtrend.

    I’ve found that most news events rarely, if ever, change the overall direction of the trend. However FOMC does have a little more pull especially when rate hikes are involved. But as well all know the FED does not lead, they follow, which is why I am confident this rate hike is was being priced in during the past 2 weeks and could be used as a catalyst for a major trend change.

    Considering last week’s Commercial major change in positions, I’m confident being long Gold, Silver, and Miners have good risk/reward ratio.

  41. Nada

    Notice how shortin Sally has disappeared again? I am sure she is bitting her nails and hoping that the FOMC decision will reverse the direction in miners. That might happen, as we know the PMs are ripe for games. However, if it does not reverse, make no mistake.. that will be the end of MS on the board until the next ICL.

  42. allthatglitters

    Leilani, I hear you. I would be on board that JNUG train right now if it wasn’t for the fear of one last takedown. Feels too easy, like the banksters are allowing one last rally to crush down. I’m jaded i guess!

  43. Jim Dandy

    Forget the amount she raises rates, what if Yellen says Bitcoin is a scam that is going to hurt a lot of people and will be shut down January 1. If caught owning, transferring, or cashing in/out of ïllegal¨cryptos, it´s 15 years in federal prison. LOL!

    1. LeilaniFarms

      I have tried trading all kinds of time frames and to me, anything less than the Daily chart for technical analysis is useless for Swing / Position traders.

      I’m not sure how a Day Trader can make money using leveraged funds on the stock market considering they are blocked from trading 2/3 of the day.

      Spot is where you want to play around with smaller time frames, assuming that is what you are trying to do. haha

      I prefer to get in on a swing or long-term position and let the earnings compound. This is why I’m playing JNUG. So far the timing was spot on.

      Also, after pulling up the majority of the stocks in GDXJ it looks (to me) as though they are all pretty much ready for their next leg up. If this is the case, 2016 highs are in sight during the first half of next year.

    2. Steffmeister

      but the end result is the important thing, no I would have put w2 at the spike in the middle.

      Nada are you a he or a she 😛 someone wrote she about you yesterday. I thought you had a mancrush going on haha

      1. Nada

        Haha Steff.. I am trying to bump that ego down a bit. Those comments last week about how only you could predict the short term movements of gold is where my ammunition came from. Yeah I am not sure who posted “she” yesterday. I think it was in the midst of Shortin Sally shooting off from the hip.

  44. trendyfollower

    Barring a total crazy reversal we’ll get swing lows across the PM board today and I will be long. I hope this is a good entry for an Old Turkey position and the horrible and volatile basing pattern is finally coming to an end. I like both PMs and SM in a bull market together as it reduces portfolio volatility a lot.

    1. Duuuuuude

      If you will believe stocks will seek out and enter its intermediate cycle low in a few weeks this is probably not a great time to enter the stock market old Turkey.

  45. palobar

    Bitcoin and all the other cryptos have drawn all the attention now. Hopefully one day Gary will upload a video on Gold explaining that it has gone parabolic and that we are in a bubble:). In the past four years, Gold had made some major lows in December, which something to keep in mind. The 15-16 Dec time window is very important as it includes a plethora of cycles that were involved in most of the major swings in Gold over that past decades (3560 and 2292 days from the 2008 and 2011 major highs respectively). So how Gold trades from Monday will the key. Unless we take out the Sep’17 high there is nothing to get excited about yet.

      1. palobar

        Hello Nada. I think that it is still possible. So far we had a 3-month rally. Whether the market here takes out the high or the low in November will be very critical. Until one of the above happens I would be cautious. After that, the trend will get aggressive either way.

  46. LeilaniFarms

    There is no way for me to prove this but I drew this Trend Line on my USD chart back when Trump got elected and the dollar broke out to new highs. I thought the USD was going to go on a rip roaring rampage but since then it has come back down to its mean. I see it kissing my Trend Line sooner than later…

    https://TerrySudlow.tinytake.com/sf/MjE5MzkxM182ODEwMjg4

    Gold & Silver: The bottom in Gold is in and the Big Boys are not going to waste any time sending prices up as fast as possible so they can slowly liquidate along the way up to all of the Institutional investors and of course the retail traders who are going to get in much later due to the fact that the majority of them still think we are in a bear market.

    As far as Sentiment goes we are now just getting started on the new bull run while many of the institutional traders are capitulating on there most recent shorts.

      1. LeilaniFarms

        No way, that is just the first most likely scenario for me at this point in time. If/when it hits that Trend Line I would need to reassess.

        But something tells me that as gold goes up this next time around we will also see the USD go up as well. I am actually confident that this will happen during the next couple of years.

        Problems around the globe will send more money to the US as foreign flight capital, Europe is f’d as a single union currency and was doomed to fall from the get go. Once Europe gets hit then Japan will follow. Fortunately or unfortunately, US will be one of the last to fall.

        This is my Bullish Gold and Bullish USD forecast for the next few years. However, I’m not saying USD will be going up just yet. Gold’s turn first.

  47. Jimsee

    small-cap gold has had a 10 mth d/t versus gld, a doubling here makes sense to me 🙂

    gold fundy indycator is at nov closing highs while gold tests new lows…looks like gld dn move from nov28 is emotional. close above that and we’re off imo.

    1. LeilaniFarms

      Whoa! Nice. It was weird, I was watching the GDXJ chart at market close and I saw a big print of volume right at the close. So I refreshed a few times but then the volume bar was gone. So I checked volume at Nasdaq.com only to see about 12 million for GDXJ. I shrugged it off.

      After you pointed it out I loaded GDXJ at investing.com and realized what I had seen was indeed what happened.

      Folks, this is some MAJOR volume today on GDX and GDXJ. In fact, we have only seen this much Bullish volume once the entire 2nd half of this year before today and that was on August 28. After which GDXJ climbed 10% during the next 5 trading sessions.

      1. Nada

        Yeah I was watching level 2 at the close on GDX GDXJ and GLD. The bought around 400,000 shares of GLD too. The recent buying on weakness in miners has been been small for around the last 6 months. I have not seen anything over 200 million in a very long time.

        If you are not aware, you might have seen references to BOW and SOS. Buying on Weakness and Selling on Strength and I am referencing WSJ report;

        http://www.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3022-mfgppl-moneyflow.html?mod=mdc_leader

        Something to keep in mind on this report. You will not see buying on weakness appear on an asset when it closes green – this is why I was watching level 2, because the miners and gold were green. Also if there is a big selling on strength, it will not appear if the asset closes red. The report is updated through out the day, but institutional money typically only buys at open and close due to the increased liquidity. The report is most useful on its final print – typically 5pm eastern.

  48. ras

    New strategy for pmers: buy on snap backs and sell on rallies. Rinse and repeat?

    soxl in basing mode still. Ditto: intc, nvda. soxl back to old or higher high before sm is ready for deeper pull back? One day at a time.

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