82 thoughts on “CHART OF THE DAY – THE BIG PICTURE

    1. vin

      My friend, Gary says that retail investors never make any money implying that no one acts on his advise fearlessly.

      Now that he is predicting nasdaq 10k by june/july it should be easy to make a bundle for us all. He calls 10k a piece of cake and 20k doable. What an easy way to become rich fast? I can now sleep peacefully that I will retire wealthy. Amen!

      1. Gary Post author

        Bubbles are anything but easy.

        Most people are in denial early in the bubble. Perfect case in point: For a year now I’ve been warning traders what would happen once the Nasdaq broke out above the 2000 highs. Yet most didn’t believe me. They were convinced the bull was too mature to make a big run to an outlandish number like 10,000. We’ve already covered almost 2,000 of the 5000 points needed and most people have missed all of it, and many have been trying to short it.

        As the bubble becomes more mature volatility picks up. We’ll get more scary pullbacks like we had on Friday. Traders will get knocked out as they won’t be expecting volatility like this.

        Then towards the end complacency will become extreme like we are seeing in bitcoin. That complacency will cause most people to hold too long and they will lose everything when the bubble pops.

        So don’t fool yourself. Bubbles aren’t easy.

        1. ras

          Yeah, bubbles are not easy. It becomes even more challenging when sector rotation is thrown in between nas and dow/spx/rut/iyt,kbe. We tasted this recently when udow, spxl, tna, fas and iyt powered up while nas was crushed. Hunches and preconceived scenarios may not always pan out. Spurt followed by shallow dip/consolidation while some other group lifts up and follows a similar script and so on. Everyone needs to do what works for him.

  1. vin

    Thanks Gary. Well put. This graph does make it clear. Doesn’t it?

    10k by june/july. Here is it comes, piece of cake. And, then to 20k. Naysayers must note. No wonder retail investors don’t make a penny even when Gary predicts future over and over again.

      1. vin

        I am glad that you are following Buddhism, a great philosophy indeed. Or, is it Hinduism? Whatever. It nice to obseve people becoming so kind only because of karmas. Amen!

        But, what happens if she loses a bundle? Just asking.

  2. arcticfox

    You gotta think if these things start popping up utilizing this technology , the problems such as storage fees, transportation, etc can be addressed. Having a pm backing which allows for redemption at any time actually facilitates the concept of intrinsic value.

    1. Duuuuuude

      Golden selling opportunity versus golden buying opportunity? The bread-and-butter of professional traders is selling overpriced assets and buying underpriced assets. Not really saying the NASDAQ Is underpriced but relative to crypto’s it is.

      1. Gary Post author

        Exactly!

        Those that can control greed should sell their crypto’s that are very late in their bubble and plow the profits into the stock market which is still very early in its bubble.

        Currently 172% above the 200 DMA & 93% bulls.

        Extreme stretch above the long term mean, and extreme sentiment.

        1. vin

          Very sensible approach. Though I am a bit confused. Was it (btc) grossly overpriced at 8k is it overprice at 11.8k?

          It is a lifetime opportunity. Isn’t it?

      2. vin

        Duuuuuude, nasdaq may go up or not. No one knows for sure if it will go up 10% from here particularly based on the last two weeks trading.

        On the other hand btc has gone up 10% in a matter of hours. Did you miss this beauty and now you are making excuses? Some experts say that the best is yet to come.

        Please keep your mind open and see things as they are instead of what you wish to see.

        Good luck.

        1. Duuuuuude

          I am a commodity broker. I try to be dead neutral in my emotions(yes I have them). I just know if I were making a spread, I would be long NASDAQ or commodities or even cash and short bitcoin. A 10% move in hours creates an emotional rush I try to avoid at all costs.

          1. vin

            Duuuuuude, Understood.

            But, please also understand that the name of the game is to make money and make it as fast as one can. So, those who have the courage to play btc have done extremely well. Why pull them down?

            There are VERY few investors today. What is happening in the monetary and financial world today is beyond comprehension.

            3X and derivatives are NOT investments. It is nothing but gambling.

            So, this attitude: “If you drive slower than me you are stupid and if you drives faster than me you are maniac” makes me laugh.

          2. Gary Post author

            LOL I got caught in the tech bubble.

            Learned my lesson. I know the signs of a bubble and when it’s too dangerous to keep pushing. I’ve gone over the signs many times here. But just like most everything I cover the vast majority ignore me. Why? Because my calls are more often than not contrarian calls, and that means I’m going against the herd. Just by our very nature it’s difficult to impossible for most humans to run against the crowd. Perfect example: Bitcoin sentiment at 93% bulls. Logically traders know it’s insane to buy when sentiment is that extreme, and price is that stretched, but they simply can’t help themselves. They have to follow the herd.

            It’s too dangerous now in bitcoin. The correct strategy IMO is to take ones profits, don’t look back, and put them in the stock market which is much earlier in the bubble phase and hardly stretched above the mean at all. Sentiment is still benign (the Robo ratio isn’t even close to the complacency that would indicate a more significant top).

            In 5 years the people that were able to follow that strategy will have made lots of money, maybe even an obscene amount of money.

            Those that kept pushing bitcoin, and were unable break free from the herd will be broke.

          3. Duuuuuude

            Vin, your time horizon is different than mine. I never look for a fast buck. I’m not a day trader and I’m not a gambler. I take risk that I can manage. A year ago I would have taken a bitcoin position for fun knowing what I know today. I did not understand bitcoin then and have do not understand it today. I could not even take a bitcoin position today for fun. Sticking with what I know is hard enough but I make more money today than I ever have in my life.

          4. vin

            Thank you, Duuuuuude. You make perfect sense to me. I am not invested in btc and I am not planning to buy it in near future.

            In general I am a conservative investor. I have invested a very small fraction of my portfolio in nasdaq just to stay interested in this site and to see how Gary’s predictions work out.

            I used to be invested 150 to 250% all the time. And then …. I was 40% cash a little while ago. I don’t remember when was I ever in cash before.

            BUT, unlike many others on this board I do admire those who are doing well in the cryptocurrency world. Rise of btc is a beauty to behold. A life time event. How can someone dare to tell them they are not smart? Many smart ones on this board (based on their predictions) have made blunders, in some cases many a time. And, they still brag as if there is not tomorrow.

            I wish you do well in your trades. And, I also wish btc investors do well. I am truly enjoying this lifetime event.

          5. Duuuuuude

            I am up nearly %1000 this year using futures in the stock market. If you use enough leverage, you can get that thrill. Just do it in the boring stock market where the cycles still work somewhat and once you get a strong hand dont get cute with tight stops or trying to pick tops. We are at a tricky spot now however ……are we going parabolic or into an ICL? I have cut my risk exposure in half but still in just in case we go higher now.

        2. Gary Post author

          No sane person would ever buy an asset stretched 172% above the 200 DMA. And just because it went up 10% in the last day or two doesn’t mean it isn’t going to crash.

          The question isn’t how far it could go up? The question is will you be able to get out before the crash. If not then it doesn’t matter one damn bit how much money you make on the rest of the rally because you will only lose it all when the crash comes.

          This is why bubbles are dangerous. They convince traders there is no risk. Then they hold on too long and get caught when everything goes down in flames.

          The only way to profit from a bubble is at some point you have to control greed and just decide that you’ve made enough. Get out and stay out.

          Newton recognized the bubble but couldn’t control the urge to get back in when it kept going up. He got caught and lost everything.

          Druckenmiller recognized the tech bubble, but couldn’t resist going back in when he exited too soon. He got caught as well when the market crashed.

          Very few humans have the emotional control to just be satisfied. We have evolved to always want more. (greed).

          It’s why almost no one ever makes any money off a bubble.

          1. vin

            Those who listened to your advise and did not buy btc at 7k have already missed a 40% move in weeks just because you are promising then a 40% in next 7-8 months! Will that happen? No guru knows it.

            Gary, if the nasdaq goes to 10k then you are a genius. And, if does not then of course it will due to manipulation. Right?

          2. Gary Post author

            You still don’t understand. It doesn’t matter how much one makes if you give it all back.

            If one had listened to me then they have made a nice steady gain in their portfolio, Risk is exponentially less in stocks at this time.

            The odds of people losing that 40% in bitcoin are almost 100% unless they are able to control greed. The odds of people following my more rational approach and continuing to grind their portfolios higher as the stock bubble matures and progresses are high.

            Those caught in the bitcoin mania will have nothing in a year. They will almost all be broke and will have lost everything.

            Those that followed me and kept their heads about them will have made a ton of money.

            You are still a novice so it’s hard for you to comprehend. But this game is about risk. There is simply way too much of it in bitcoin. It’s ultimately going to destroy those people ignoring it.

            And quit making stupid statements like “it’s all about manipulation”

            How many times must I tell you that the manipulation is in our favor in the stock market? Use it to make money.

            And for your information 40% is chump change. If one wants to take huge risk they could have just entered the Quest trade on Oct. 2. That trade is up almost 300%. Why in the world would we want to risk getting caught in the crash of bitcoin when we can make many times that amount of money in a much safer leveraged play in the stock market?

          3. Gary Post author

            Ask yourself this question:

            Do you want to have more money next week? Or do you want to have more money next year?

            If you get sucked into the bitcoin bubble you will have nothing by this time next year.

            If you do it my way you will have a lot more money by this time next year.

          4. vin

            Gary, with due respect for your extraordinary predictions with so much conviction, I would like to note that investing is not the same thing as selling advise to investors.

            Most on this board are new comers to the game of investing and they will not be around investing a few years from now irrespective of whether what you see in your crystal ball happens to pass or not.

            As far gurus are concerned there are many before you. And many have been very accurate in their predictions for some period of time, and then they could not make a correct prediction. On the other hand, good investors stick around and their advise is always applicable.

            Kind regards.

          5. Gary Post author

            How long do you think I’ve been doing this?

            So many trolls here think this is only about selling subscriptions. It’s about trying to teach people sound trading strategies. I use what has worked best for me over the years. That being cycles analysis and sentiment.

            Those by their nature are contrarian tools so at turns I’m going against the crowd. That’s why almost everyone is against me when I make my calls. Then a month later it turns out I was correct and the few that paid attention made money. Those that ignored me either made nothing or lose money.

            It happens like clock work. But no matter how many times things work out as I predict it doesn’t matter, most people are just not hardwired to be able to make contrarian trades.

  3. carlvan

    Gary, as you know, CME will soon offer futures on bitcoin. This will be a game changer and is seen as a great danger for global financial stability (InteractiveBrokers even sent a letter to CME recently to beg them not to launch those futures). It seems to me that when bitcoin will be in the futures arena, every average Joe with a futures account might jump on it, which would have as effect of even accelerating the bubble. So it seems we haven’t seen the top yet, but I am curious to see whether the inevitable bubble burst will have an impact on other and more traditional markets.

    1. isavage

      Carlvan

      And I’m very concerned and always said I would not invest in Bitcoin after they allow futures trading after what we have seen done to the precious metals market.

      We can expect something similar in bitcoin if they want to push the price down. Of course that won’t be happening in Ethereum or other utility tokens because there won’t be any futures trading, so personally I’ll stand aside from Bitcoin apart from some more odd GBTC trades after making good money from it.

      My Guess is they well probably cause a giant spike up which they are selling in to before they do the massive shorting so that will be the clue – massive spike followed by massive liquidation as we see often in the other futures markets .

      My prediction is like this – We going to 15k ASAP in time for furthers training. Sharp sell off to let the big boys in. Then ramp up to around 25k maybe before mega bust to 5k

  4. isavage

    So the last thing I wanted to share of those open to new ideas – I think we are looking at a bigger issue that BTC is a part of

    Since I did my own research learned more about how and who is behind Bitcoin it’s obviously part of a plan, the fact that it’s not being stopped already tells me that it’s part of the agenda not something that’s just out of control/ free market.

    For those who do not know The Economist in 1984 predicted “2018 to be the year of a new global currency” The Magazine is used by the globalists as in a slimier way to the Barron’s cover is used to time the markets. Bitcoin is possibly the Vanguard and test model or possibly even what’s going to be part of the new global currency.

    here is the link to the magazine cover from that year 1988
    https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=economist+magazine+cover+1988&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8&client=firefox-b&gfe_rd=cr&dcr=0&ei=Zz8kWtHWE8qAgAawpbOYAQ

    This of course moves the understanding of BTC & Blockchain technology into an area which is a huge amount to research in itself but happens to be something I have a lot of experience with.

    1. carlvan

      That’s very interesting isavage. I also think that as soon as futures will be active at CME and Nasdaq, big boys will push the thing down just to scare the kids and allow themselves to re-enter long at better prices. Will it be 5K or more I have no idea of course, but I really think that, afterwards, and because of the much bigger volumes in and access to futures market, we will see moves like we never saw before inBTC; I wouldn’t be surprised to see 100k at the horizon before this all bursts. But that is really only an opinion for the time being. Anyway, I won’t touch BTC before it is available in the futures market, and provided it shows high liquidity.

  5. jacob2

    Wall Street is a business. If they can make a market in Bitcoin and legitimize it by engaging exchanges like CME , and drive profits selling to people afraid of missing out on an opportunity to realize returns greater than any current equity or other asset class they will do it all day long. It’s business. I get that. BTC the latest iteration of a mania fueled by demand from those looking to make big money in a short span of time. Period. NAZ not far behind imo. Every bubble eventually finds its pin.

  6. Goild

    Does any one have an idea what to expect about gold/miners this week?

    More sideway motion? penetrating support ? or a bull trap?

    It is Sunday afternoon, time for nice music and a glass of wine.

  7. mustang sally

    Howdy Everyone:

    As we all seem giddy about parabolas, here is my take usd 93,60 is the lynch pin. if a close on the tsx below 15,500 and indu 23283 there will be trouble in the market, If you think it is a parabola going up its going to be a waterfall down

    Shortin Sally

    1. Gary Post author

      Bubbles certainly aren’t pretty when they pop, but the Dow is hardly a bubble yet.

      As of Friday it was barely 11% above the 200 DMA.

      Come back and see me when it’s 50% or more.

  8. isavage

    HI Gary.

    What about Goild’s question. i know you are on the side lines as you have said. But for the rest of us do you think we are on hold in tight rage until the FED or is it the final push down before so the commercials can cover as much as they can. if so do you feel the miners will continue to hold up in the face of the metals getting more downside.

    You wrote “gold will move below the July low before this is done.” would that be before the FED or are your & Nada’s time frame converging?

    i personalty cant decide. i continue to be long/short JNUG/JDST & am looking for the opportune time to cover the JDST leg.

    i guess i will have to average over as the the days unfolds on any spikes.

    Miners across the board holding up well already i felt in the face of the strong PM moves last week.

    1. Gary Post author

      I’ll go over it again. Both silver and miners have signaled failed cycles. I think that puts the odds in favor of gold eventually following.

      If gold does drop below the October low and signal a failed cycle then it would left translate the intermediate cycle. Left translated cycles more often than not produce failed cycles and move below the previous low of similar degree. In the case of gold the last ICL was in July.

      So a move below the October low would definitely open the door for at least a marginal break below the July low.

      For these reasons (and others) I’m not in a big hurry to try to pick a bottom in the metals right now.

  9. isavage

    Ok thank you. I was not able to be watching the market on Friday & was just now reading back what you wrote on the blog.

    Thank you to take the time to spell it out yet again. im curious about the time frame you feel as to get below July low before FOMC would make this an exciting week 🙂

    Depressed all day Sat as was not able to capitalize on my XIV / UVXY long/short 🙁 just about over it now! and of course futures are opening up right on the monthly resistance line.

    Will it be a sell the Tax news event tomorrow. lets see

  10. Goild

    Last year it was a no brainer to jump into JDST and DUST for those with a keen understanding about gold/miners and interest rates.

    A key ingredient are the bond interests rates, yields. Last year they climbed prior to the FOMC and so with the announcement of the rate hike bond yields did nothing because they had already climb, the new about the rate hike. And then gold climbed.

    We should get to a consensus of what is happening on FOMC day and right after it.
    It seems that the FED will increase the rate.

    Any comment?

    1. Gary Post author

      The odds of a rate hike have been almost 100% for several months.

      The market has known for a long time the Fed was going to hike in December.

      Heck the Fed has even been telling everyone for months that they are going to hike in December.

  11. Goild

    OK, then what about the bond yields? Would they automatically increase or they have already accounted for the FED increase in this December?
    I think they have and so gold is not falling as per interest rates.
    As per the USD side probably the USD is staying flat. Thus no substantial gold drop, I think.

    Perhaps a panic sell out in gold on FOMC day to then quickly recover.

    1. Gary Post author

      Gold isn’t driven by bond yields. If it was then how in the world did it go to $850 in 1980 with double digit bond yields?

      Gold is driven by currency devaluation. The problem is central banks have figured out they can somewhat control where the excess liquidity flows to by intervening in the metals market. If they can keep gold suppressed then most other commodities can be somewhat kept in check as well.

      And as long as liquidity doesn’t flood into the commodity markets creating a spike in inflation…well then we don’t have to worry about a recession.

  12. Goild

    Somehow the bond yields exert an influence in securities and in the gold market.
    Gold is said to be a hedge against inflation and so it responds to the real yield.
    The charts of the YEN, TIP, USD, bonds, and GOLD have a correlation and so what is fundamentally behind?

    I am not sure I have clarity on that or the time to figure it out.
    Hopefully one of the readers here has clarity and can explain it.

    For the time being I will recall Ed Seykota and not try to understand the SM but focus on the opportunities as they present each day and make money.

    Though the item is pending, there is good money to be made prior, at, and after FOMC day.
    I little bit of thinking could mean putting $10K in my pocket in one hour or so.

  13. Goild

    From September to now the $UST2Y has increased form 1.35 to 1.45.
    The bond manipulators aren’t fools at all.
    They have already substantially accounted for a rate increase of 1/4 or 1/2 point.
    There can be a surprise and the FED might say enough is enough and come with 1% hike which will send gold down, down at FOMC day and the following day.
    Unfortunately 1% of rate increase means $200B to pay more of interest on the $20T debt the FED has. $200B is about 1/3 the US military budget. Uncle Sam is not sending that kind of money abroad as he is a very stingy fellow. The FED has is hands tight and can only do very little of an increase. Bonds are no competition at all for stocks and so the SM market indeed has been in run away mood.
    Further, the late baby boomers learned the lesson of the early baby boomers who lost the retirement funds by 2009. So these, late boomers of which there are many, are insuring their retirement by supporting the SM run away. Wow!

  14. didier

    Bolivias president Maduro says he want to launch the cryptocurrency Petro wich would replace the bolivar and be backed by Venezuela’s oil, gas, gold and diamond wealth. And repay the national debt in Petros. Lol. Why not?

  15. Anthonyo

    Aaahhhmmmm NASDAQ is going the wrong direction today not towards 10,000?? Just saying.
    When the Dow is up +200 points…
    Talk about divergence.

    This market is ripe for a 10%-40% drop, 1987-style.

    Then you enter.

Leave a Reply